Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis, as well as book recommendations, travel observations, and cultural experiences - all of which we hope will be of interest to you.

Francis Kelly 9/8/24 Francis Kelly 9/8/24

The Global Week Ahead

Mexico’s Senate Holds Final Vote on Controversial Judicial Reform Bill; Trump and Harris Debate, and the ECB Makes A Tough Call on Interest Rates

September 9 - 13, 2024

Markets are nervously watching the Mexican government's legislative march toward making the judiciary an elected role rather than one that is appointed, from the Supreme Court on down. Only one other nation elects its Supreme Court—Bolivia—and it did not turn out very well. As the Economist reported this week, it's been a complete disaster, leading to a heavily politicized judiciary and several attempted coups.

Both the Canadian and US governments, via their ambassadors in Mexico City, have expressed their strong concerns, and businesses are worried contract law will become the domain of local politicians and drug cartels. Despite widespread protests in opposition to the measure, the Mexican Senate is expected to ratify the measure this week following the Mexican lower House passing it last week. The legislation is all part of outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's (AMLO) move to punish the Supreme Court for overturning several of his other highly controversial legislative efforts. Interestingly, there is a good chance the Supreme Court will rule the legislation itself is unconstitutional, which will set up a very tense political scenario in Mexico City (for an excellent brief on the situation, our friend Ryan Berg at the Center for Strategic and International Studies wrote a superb overview you can read HERE).

Also this week, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris will meet for their first (and perhaps only) presidential debate Tuesday night. The stakes could not be higher as most recent polling shows the two candidates locked neck-and-neck with two months to go before the elections.

Turning to the global economic radar screen this week, markets are cautiously watching the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday to see if the ECB lowers rates further or holds off as several EU countries – particularly Germany – struggle economically.

Also this week, US inflation figures for August are released, hopefully further solidifying market expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin lowering rates when they meet the following week (September 18). The debate has gotten a little heated this past week as to whether it would be a cut of 25 basis points or if the Fed would go big and cut 50 basis points. Also, this week, the University of Michigan consumer survey comes out Friday, and most economists expect it to tick up slightly.

Looking at what else is going on in Europe this week aside from the ECB meeting, the UK releases July GDP figures, which will be important as the UK Parliament begins debating contentious legislation to cut household fuel subsidies this week.

In Asia, China will have a big week, releasing inflation, trade, and overall economic activity figures—all coming after a recent report showing PMIs sagging. Also, this week, Japan will release its Economy Watchers Survey and PPI figures.

Below is what else we are watching closely around the world this coming week:

Sunday, September 8, 2024

Global

· The Paralympics’ closing ceremony is held in Paris.

· The World Nomad Games begin in Kazakhstan. Athletes compete in 21 different types of sports including Tug-of-War, Horseback Wrestling, Traditional Archery, Horseback Archery, Kok Boru (where horse riders from two teams compete to tear a goat’s carcass from the ground and break through the opposing team’s defenses and put it in the opponents goal), Mas-Wrestling (where two opponents sit opposite each other, resting their feet on a board between their feet, and pull on a stick. The one who pulls the stick or the other guy or both over the board wins), and more.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the deadline for Mexico’s government to present its 2025 budget proposal to Congress.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez begins an official visit to China through September 12.

· Mozambican President Filipe Jacinto Nyusi will make an official visit to Vietnam through September. 10. Additionally, Guinea-Bissau President Umaro Sissoco Embalo will also make a simultaneous visit.

· Pope Francis will continue his Asia and Oceania tour by visiting Papua New Guinea through September 8.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture and Fisheries Ministers in Budapest, Hungary through September 10. In addition to the informal meeting of the ministers, there will be a number of programs offering an insight into Hungarian culture and gastronomy. On the 8th of September ministers and their delegations will be welcomed with a Danube cruise and an opening dinner in the House of Music Hungary. The meeting will conclude on the September 10 with a kick-off debate on a farmer-focused post 2027 Common Agricultural Policy Towards a competitive, crisis-proof, sustainable, farmer-friendly and knowledge-based future EU agriculture at the Conference Hall of Várkert Bazaar.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 9, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the United Nations peacekeeping operations: Strengthening UN Peacekeeping: Reflections for the Future.

· The Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency hold board meetings in Vienna, Austria. Board discussions are expected to focus on verification and monitoring in Iran in light of United Nations Security Council resolution 2231 (2015); application of safeguards in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea; nuclear safety, security and safeguards in Ukraine; transfer of the nuclear materials in the context of AUKUS and its safeguards in all aspects under the NPT; application of IAEA safeguards in the Middle East; and the restoration of sovereign equality of Member States in the IAEA.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Congress returns from August recess.

· US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will meet with Vietnam’s Defense Minister Giang in Washington, D.C.

· In Bolivia, widespread protests are expected all week. Former President Evo Morales will be leading the efforts.

· Apple holds its annual media event to launch their new products, including a new iteration of the iPhone.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

· USA Wholesale Inventories (July)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)/ Consumer Credit Change (July)/ Used Car Prices (August)/ Total Vehicle Sales (August)

· Argentina Industrial Production (July)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· El Salvador Inflation Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· South Korea will co-host the Responsible AI in the Military Domain Summit in Seoul. Co-hosting will be Singapore, the Netherlands, Kenya, and the UK. Representatives from the militaries and governments of more than 90 countries are expected to attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Current Account (July)/ GDP Growth Annualized Final Q2

· Australia Building Permits Final (July)/ Private House Approvals Final (July)

· China Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI (August)

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (August)

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (August)

· Malaysia Retail Sales (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

· Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Pakistan Consumer Confidence (August)

· Kazakhstan PPI (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Former European Central Bank President and Prime Minister of Italy Mario Draghi presents report on Europe's competitiveness with European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen.

· Norway’s Prime Minister Jonas Gahr visits Beijing for meetings. The visit marks the 70th anniversary of bilateral ties between the two countries.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture and Fisheries Ministers through September 10 in Budapest, Hungary.

· European Commission Vice-President Margaritis Schinas will visit Armenia to take part in the launch of a visa liberalization dialogue with the European Union.

· NATO holds Steadfast Foxtrot 24 military exercises in Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in a fireside chat at the Barclays Global Financial Conference in New York.

· Ireland Construction PMI (August)/ Industrial Production (July)

· Romania Balance of Trade (July)

· Serbia Interest Rate Decision

· Hungary Budget Balance (August)

· Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Hezbollah commemorates slain commander Fuad Shukr 40 days after Israeli strike near Beirut.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Tanzania Inflation Rate (August)

· Mozambique Inflation Rate (August)

Tuesday, September 10, 2024

Global

· The 79th session of the U.N. General Assembly will begin.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Ukraine.

· National Security Advisors of the BRICS countries will meet in St. Petersburg, Russia to help plan for the BRICS+ Summit in Kazan, Russia in October.

· OPEC’s Monthly Oil Report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris will participate in their first presidential debate.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (August)/ Redbook (September/07)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/06)

· Brazil Inflation Rate (August)

· Canada BoC Macklem Speech

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· China's legislative Standing Committee will discuss various draft bills, including ones related to energy and anti-money laundering work, through September 13.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Manufacturing Sales Q2

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (September)/ NAB Business Confidence (August)

· Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

· China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Indonesia Retail Sales (July)/ Motorbike Sales (August)/ Car Sales (August)

· Malaysia Industrial Production (July)

· Japan Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (August)/ Machine Tool Orders (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The UK Parliament begins debate over proposed cuts to the winter fuel payments plan.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany Inflation Rate Final (August)

· Great Britain Unemployment Rate (July)/ Claimant Count Change (August)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (August)

· Hungary Inflation Rate (August)

· Slovakia Industrial Production (July)

· Spain Industrial Production (July)

· Turkey Industrial Production (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ Participation Rate (July)

· Italy Industrial Production (July)

· Slovenia Industrial Production (July)

· Greece Inflation Rate (August)

· Ukraine Inflation Rate (August)

· Belarus Inflation Rate (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Jordan holds parliamentary elections.

· Saudi Arabia hosts the Global Artificial Intelligence Summit (GAIN) in Riyadh. There will be more than 400 speakers, 20,000 participants with an expected 25 million online participants.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (July)

· Egypt Inflation Rate (August)

· Jordan Inflation Rate (August)

· Israel Consumer Confidence (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Manufacturing Production (July)

Wednesday, September 11, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on 1591 Committee (regarding the situation in the Sudan), followed by a briefing on 1591 Committee. They are expected to vote on whether to renew sanctions.

· G7 Labor Ministers meet through September 13 in Cagliari, Italy.

· The International Energy Administration publishes the lates monthly oil report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Mexico’s Senate is expected to vote on the highly controversial judicial reform bill. The lower House approved the bill on September 4. Demonstrations are expected across Mexico City in opposition to the measure.

· Microsoft will hold a cybersecurity summit in wake of CrowdStrike outage.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/06)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/06)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ CPI (August)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (September/06)

· Mexico Industrial Production (July)

· Argentina Inflation Rate (August)

· Ecuador Balance of Trade (July)

· Peru Balance of Trade (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· SEMI (the international semiconductor industry group) will host the Semicon Exhibition in New Delhi, India through September 13. The event is expected to draw more than 40,000 visitors and host more than 600 exhibitors.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (July)

· South Korea Unemployment Rate (August)

· Australia RBA Hunter Speech/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)

· Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Junko Nakagawa will give a speech in Akita, Japan.

· China Vehicle Sales (August)/ New Yuan Loans (August)/ M2 Money Supply (August)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (August)/ Total Social Financing (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· European Union President Ursula von der Leyden will announce the new EU Commissioners.

· There will be a pro-independence march today (Catalan Day) in Catalan, Spain.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates on a panel at the EUROFI Financial Forum in Budapest, Hungary.

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates on a panel discussion "Supervision and regulation – Followers or pacemakers in the "new world"? - Finding the future role of supervision and regulation" at BaFin Conference "SSM 2034 – an outlook" in Bonn, Germany.

· Romania Inflation Rate (August)

· Great Britain GDP (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July)/ Construction Output (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (August)

· Slovakia Construction Output (July)

· Turkey Retail Sales (July)

· Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Russia Balance of Trade (July)/ Inflation Rate (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Balance of Trade (April)/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Balance of Trade (June)

Thursday, September 12, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Yemen).

· The G20 Agriculture Ministers meet in Cuiaba, Brazil.

· The UN’s One Planet Network Forum 2024, scheduled for September 12-13 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, will focus on reducing inequalities and achieving just transitions through sustainable consumption and production, highlighting the role of the circular economy. The event will bring together stakeholders from diverse sectors to discuss key topics including green skills, sustainable cities, circular economies, and sustainable public procurement.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil Retail Sales (July)

· Canada Building Permits (July)

· USA Continuing Jobless Claims (August/31)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/07)/ PPI (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September/06)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/11)/ WASDE Report/ Monthly Budget Statement (August)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/11)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Paraguay Balance of Trade (August)

· Peru Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The 11th Xiangshan Forum begins in Beijing and runs through September 14. The high-level defense and security event brings together military leaders from around the world will attend to discuss the theme “Promoting Peace for a Shared Future.” More than 30 defense ministers are expected to attend.

· China’s International Fair for Trade in Services begins in Beijing and runs through September 16.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (August)/ Food Inflation (August)

· Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Naoki Tamura will give a speech in Okayama, Japan.

· Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Q3/ Foreign Bond Investment (September/07)/ PPI (August)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/07)

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (June)

· Hong Kong Industrial Production Q2

· India Industrial Production (July)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ Manufacturing Production (July)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (August)

· Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

The AI Regulation Forum begins in Brussels. Policymakers from around Europe and the world will gather to discuss how AI should be regulated and how best to comply with existing laws.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The Governing Council of the European Central Bank meets on interest rates in Frankfurt, Germany. ECB President Christine Lagarde holds a press conference after the meeting.

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates on a panel at the EUROFI Financial Forum in Budapest, Hungary.

· European Central Bank Board Member Kerstin af Jochnick participates on a panel at the EUROFI Financial Forum in Budapest, Hungary.

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates on a panel at the EUROFI Financial Forum in Budapest, Hungary.

· Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (August)/ BoE Breeden Speech

· Germany Wholesale Prices (August)/ Current Account (July)

· Spain Inflation Rate (August)

· Turkey Current Account (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/06)

· France IEA Oil Market Report

· Ireland Inflation Rate (August)

· Serbia Inflation Rate (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Oman Inflation Rate (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Expectations Q3/ Gold Production (July)/ Mining Production (July)

· Angola Wholesale Prices (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

Friday, September 13, 2024

Global

· G20 Digital Ministers meet in Maceio, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. President Joe Biden will hold a meeting at the White House with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade/ Export Prices (August)/ Import Prices (August)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations Prel (September)/ Michigan Current Conditions Prel (September)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel (September)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/13)

· Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (July)/ Business Confidence (September)

· Canada Capacity Utilization Q2/ Wholesale Sales Final (July)

· Colombia Consumer Confidence (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Import Prices (August)/ Export Prices (August)

· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (August)

· Singapore Unemployment Rate Final Q2

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (August)

· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (September)/ Capacity Utilization (July)/ Industrial Production Final (July)

· Sri Lanka GDP Growth Rate Q2

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/06)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Eurogroup will meet in Budapest, Hungary. They will discuss EU macroeconomic developments, get a debrief from the G7, and discuss the situation in Ukraine.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Economic and Financial Affairs Ministers in Budapest, Hungary through September 14. On Friday afternoon, EU ministers and central bank governors would discuss the issue of “sustainable financing of green transition”. The Secretary-General of OECD and the CEO of the Hungarian Government Debt Management Agency would provide presentations on how to bridge financing gap with innovative instruments, how to better mobilize household and other private savings when there is a need to enhance green transition and put public debt on a downward path simultaneously. The Saturday morning session will be devoted to “the effects of demographic changes on public debt sustainability”, where delegations will discuss debt sustainability risks in the context of aging societies and possible lines of action. This issue is a top priority for the Hungarian EU Presidency, as it put at risk the EU’s long-term economic prosperity due to shrinking working-age population and labor shortages. The discussion will be based on the contribution of the Brussels-based think tank, Bruegel. During the ministerial working lunch the Managing Director of the IMF will outline “the new financing opportunities in supporting low-income countries in their response to global challenges”.

· The NATO Military Committee Conference will begin in Prague, Czech Republic and run through September 15.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Romania Industrial Production (July)/ Current Account (July)

· Hungary Construction Output (July)/ Industrial Production Final (July)

· France Inflation Rate Final (August)

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (August)

· Euro Area Industrial Production (July)

· Greece Construction Output Q2

· Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

· Poland Balance of Trade (July)/ Current Account (July)

· Ukraine Balance of Trade (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ghana Inflation Rate (August)

· Ethiopia Inflation Rate (August)

Saturday, September 14, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China House Price Index (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ NBS Press Conference

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates in a fireside chat at the Open Day 2024 of Deutsche Bundesbank in Frankfurt, Germany.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 15, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua all celebrate their respective Independence Days today.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The 56th ASEAN Economic Ministers Meet (AEM) takes place in Vientiane, Laos.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China FDI (YTD) (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Romania holds presidential elections. Independent candidate Mircea Geoană is estimated to secure the most votes, followed closely by the Prime Minister and leader of the Social Democrat Party (PSD), Marcel Ciolacu.

· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz begins his first trip to Central Asia with visits to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The trip comes after Scholz hosted the leaders of five central Asian nations in Berlin in 2023 to discuss closer cooperation and to find a way to pry away growing relations these nations are building with Russia and China. Scholz will take part in the C5+1 meeting in Kazakhstan (the C5 being Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan).

Economic Reports/Events –

· Euro Area ECB Buch Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (August) / Wholesale Prices (August)

· Israel Inflation Rate (August)/ M1 Money Supply (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Students in Nigeria will hold nationwide protests over rising fuel prices.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 9/7/24 Francis Kelly 9/7/24

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Moving to Full Throttle: Washington Ramps Up On Multiple Regulatory Fronts This Week

September 9 - 13, 2024

Congress returns to work this week, having been out of session since the end of July. The rest of Washington’s regulatory world is already buzzing with activity, and combined, there is a lot going on.

In the coming week, we will closely watch the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Financial Institutions hearing entitled “Transparency in Global Governance.” The hearing is aimed at how the Basel Committee, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), and other international organizations interact with US financial regulators and their influence on regulatory developments. The only problem is that these organizations are refusing to appear, infuriating Subcommittee Chair Representative Andy Barr (R-KY). At this point, we are not sure who will testify, and no one is listed on the Committee’s website.

Also on the Hill this week, the House Agriculture Committee is scheduling a closed-door hearing for members to get briefed and up-to-speed on “event contracts.” For those of you unfamiliar with event contracts, they are the ability for financial traders to put “contract” wagers on, well, everything. As Politico noted, it can be things as weird as what a movie’s Rotten Tomato scores will be.

Also this week, Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will speak at the Brookings Institution on the status of the Fed's Basel III regulatory initiative. Considering the proposal has come under withering criticism from banks and Congress (not to mention public doubts from Fed Chair Jay Powell and several Fed Governors) and has been intensely rewritten, Barr’s comments will be important.

SEC Chair Gary Gensler will give a speech and participate in a fireside chat at a Peterson Institute for International Economics event. The topics of the discussion seem likely to be wide-ranging.

Last week ended up being a bit busier than anyone expected. We would note that Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu gave an important speech at the Joint European Banking Authority and European Central Bank International Conference in Frankfurt, Germany (which was not added to his public calendar until the very last minute). In his remarks, Hsu said regulators should consider creating a process for officially designating which banks within the domestic financial system are important – DSIBs. Hsu pointed out some other countries already do this and suggested the US follow suit.

Also, last week, a Federal Court blocked the CFTC’s rejection of US election betting markets – talk about good timing for all you election junkies out there!

Below is what else is happening in the regulatory world in Washington this week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· The Senate is out of session for the month of August and returns to work on September 9.

House of Representatives

· TBD – The House Agriculture Committee will hold a closed-door briefing for members on the topic of event contracts (which are financial products allowing traders to wager on virtually anything). No date or time has been released yet.

· Tuesday, September 10, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology, and Inclusion will hold a hearing entitled “Decoding DeFi: Breaking Down the Future of Decentralized Finance.”

· Tuesday, September 10, 10:30 a.m. – The House Education and Workforce Committee holds a hearing entitled “ERISA’s 50th Anniversary: The Value of Employer-Sponsored Health Benefits”

· Tuesday, September 10, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations holds a hearing entitled “The Fall of ESG: Scrutinizing the Failed Use of Environmental, Social, & Governance Standards and the Influence of Proxy Advisors.”

· Wednesday, September 11, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Financial Institutions and Monetary Policy Subcommittee holds a hearing entitled “Transparency in Global Governance”

· Wednesday, September 11, 10:00 a.m. – The House Agriculture Committee holds a hearing entitled “Severe Food Distribution Shortages in Tribal and Elderly Communities.”

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Tuesday, September 10, 11:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will speak at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C. at an event entitled “The Basel III Endgame: A Conversation with Michael Barr.”

U.S. Treasury Department

· Monday, September 9, 1:00 p.m. – The Treasury Department holds a meeting of the Treasury Advisory Committee on Racial Equity for opening remarks from TACRE Chair Michael Nutter, an overview of the work conducted by the TACRE subcommittees since the April 18, 2024, TACRE meeting, a possible vote on recommendations to make to the Treasury Department and briefings from government officials from the Treasury Department and the Internal Revenue Service.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Monday, September 9, 10:00 a.m. – The SEC holds an Open Meeting to consider he Commission will consider whether to approve a new quality control standard, QC 1000, A Firm’s System of Quality Control, and related amendments, as adopted by the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board.

· Tuesday, September 10, 9:30 a.m. – SEC Chair Gary Gensler will give remarks at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Following his speech, he will participate in a fireside chat with Roger Ferguson, former Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve.

· Thursday, September 12, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· Monday, September 9, 12:30 p.m. – CFPB Director Rohit Chopra speaks at an event hosted by Intercontinental Exchange and the National Housing Conference.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency

· Tuesday, September 10 – 11 – The FHFA holds a meeting of the Federal Advisory Committee on Affordable, Equitable, and Sustainable Housing to advise FHFA in the exercise of its oversight functions regarding affordable, equitable, and sustainable housing, including but not limited to, affordable, equitable, and sustainable housing needs, barriers to access, barriers to long-term sustainability, and any regulatory, guidance, or policy changes that may be necessary or beneficial to expand such housing.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

· Thursday, September 12, 10:00 a.m. – The FCA holds a meeting of the quarterly report on economic conditions and Farm Credit System condition and performance.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Thursday, September 12: The American Bankers Association will hold a virtual conference entitled “Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Summit.”

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Monday, September 9, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds an event entitled “Do EU regulations unduly penalize securitization?” Emmanuelle Assouan, Director General for Financial Stability and Operations, Bank of France, will speak.

· Tuesday, September 9, 1:00 p.m. – The Farm Foundation holds a discussion on "The Agricultural Platforms of the Candidates for President of the United States."

· Tuesday, September 10, 9:30 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics hosts SEC Chair Gary Gensler for a speech and fireside chat.

· Thursday, September 12, 9:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance holds an online event entitled “Policy Implications of the 2024 U.S. Elections: Fiscal and Growth Outlooks.”

· Thursday, September 12, 9:30 a.m. – The Cato Institute holds a conference entitled “Financial Privacy Under Fire: Protecting and Restoring Americans’ Rights’ in Washington, D.C.

· Thursday, September 12, 10:00 a.m. – The Brookings Institution holds a discussion on "The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017: Lessons learned and the debate ahead.”

· Thursday, September 12, 2:00 p.m. – The Bipartisan Policy holds a Leaders Speaker Series with former Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Mark Calabria.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 9/6/24 Francis Kelly 9/6/24

The Global Week Ahead

Summer is Over, and A Hectic Autumn Begins: US Elections Heat Up, China Ramps Up Relations with Africa, Germany’s Historic Elections, And What US Job Figures Will Tell Markets

September 1 - 8, 2024

Summer is now over (per the UK Meteorological calendar, which says September 1 is the first day of Autumn, and we are entering a hectic and likely historic autumn. The US presidential elections loom a little over two months away (the first presidential debate between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is scheduled for September 10).

But in the coming week, there will be some very significant events markets will watch closely. Beijing will be bustling this coming week as China hosts the China-Africa Forum. Leaders from across Africa will attend the meeting to discuss climate issues, increased trade opportunities, and likely new loans from China to many of the attending countries. The meeting is all part of Beijing's efforts to expand its influence across the continent while securing critical mineral rights and increased trade opportunities.

But that is not all that is happening in Beijing this week. UK Foreign Minister David Lammy is expected to visit for meetings with China's top diplomat, Wang Yi, and a possible meeting with President Xi Jinping. Additionally, Chief US Climate Advisor to President Biden, John Podesta, will visit to discuss cementing new climate goals. At the same time, US Undersecretary of Commerce for International Trade, Marisa Lago, will travel to Tianjin, China for meetings with her counterpart on a wide range of issues stressing the US-China relationship. Both the Podesta and Lago meetings come on the heal of US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan's meeting with President Xi and Foreign Minister Wang last week.

The big event in Europe this week is the state elections held today in Germany (Sunday) – the impact of which is shaking most of the rest of Europe and beyond. The states of Saxony and Thuringia held votes, and it appears the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) Party has won in Thuringia – the first time a far-right party has won a state poll since World War II. The AfD took second place in Saxony – but just by a little more than a percentage point – to the Christian Democrat Party. Additionally, the far-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) showed growing strength in both elections, coming in third in both, while the ruling SPD Party came in a very weak fourth place.

Both the AfD and the BSW strongly oppose military and financial aid to Ukraine, and both have expressed sympathy for Russian President Vladimir Putin's views on the War. However, neither party is expected to win enough seats to form a ruling coalition. And virtually no other party wants to create a coalition with the AfD due to their neo-Nazi leanings.

Also, this week in Europe, former Italian Prime Minister and European Central Bank Chief Mario Draghi will meet with EU Parliamentary leaders to discuss a forthcoming "landmark" report on EU competitiveness. Last year, EU President Ursula von der Leyen asked Draghi to conduct the study and recommend how the EU can better compete globally. The report is expected to make a number of seismic recommendations, primarily aimed at filling the productivity gap between the EU, the US, and China.

Also this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin travels to Mongolia to commemorate the joint Soviet-Mongolian defeat of Japan in World War II. But the real significance of the trip is that Mongolia is a signatory of the International Criminal Court, which has a warrant out for Putin's arrest since 2023 for war crimes. This is Putin's first visit to an ICC signatory nation since he directed the invasion of Ukraine. Mongolia has no intention of honoring that signature or of arresting Putin, a blow to the ICC's stature.

Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen for the coming week, markets are looking at the US jobs report (non-farm payrolls) being released this coming Friday (will they be softer or more robust than expected, and will that, in turn, lead to a larger rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this month?). Also this week, the Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book, and the Bank of Canada meets to decide interest rates.

Moving to Asia, China releases PMIs and the Caixin indexes, while Japan releases closely watched wage figures, and Australia releases second-quarter GDP figures.

In Europe, markets will closely follow the EU Parliament's reception of the Draghi reported above. Meanwhile, Germany will release closely watched industrial production and trade balance figures as well as factory orders—all critical indicators of whether the German economy is beginning to recover or is still struggling.

Below are the other key events around the world we are watching closely:

Sunday, September 1, 2024

Global

· Slovenia assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of September.

· UN General-Secretary Antonio Guterres visits Singapore for meetings. He will then travel to China to participate in the China-Africa Forum.

· Today is the first day of Autumn per the UK Met Meteorological calendar.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Chief US Climate Advisor to President Biden, John Podesta, will travel to China for meetings on how to advance further mutual climate agreements.

· Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador gives an annual speech on the executive branch’s accomplishments, similar to a State of the Nation address. President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum will be sworn into office on October 1. Also, Mexican students are expected to turn out in large numbers to protest the President’s proposed judicial reform effort. The lower chamber of Congress, sworn into office today, begins debate on the measure today.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Indonesia hosts the 2nd Annual Indonesia-Africa Forum in Bali. Indonesian President Joko Widodo and more than 30 African leaders will meet for three days to discuss how to deepen political and economic ties, build stronger supply chains and healthcare systems.

· Azerbaijan holds parliamentary elections.

· Today is Uzbekistan Independence Day, celebrating when the country was able to declare its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

· Today is Constitution Day in Kazakhstan.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade AUG

· Australia CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM AUG

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· In Germany, state elections will be held in Saxony and Thuringia. The far-right AfD Party is expected to win a significant share and possibly a majority of the votes.

· UK Foreign Minister David Lammy will travel to Beijing for meetings to discuss trade and security issues.

· Czechia will hold regional elections and the election of one-third of the Senate.

· The GLOBSEC Forum 2024 will be held in Prague, Czechia.

· Border Force agents at Heathrow Airport are expected to go on strike through September 3.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 2, 2024

Global

· Pope Francis begins a four-country Asia visit over twelve days and participates in more than 40 events. Improving the Catholic-Muslim dialogue and climate change is at his agenda. He will begin the trip to Indonesia, then travel to Papua New Guinea, East Timor, and Singapore.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris and President Joe Biden hold a campaign event in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

· Bolivia is bracing for widespread national protests over the current economic crisis and shortage of dollars and fuel.

· Today is Labor Day in the US and Canada. Financial markets and banks, as well as the US and Canadian governments, are closed.

· Today is the 79th Anniversary of “VJ Day” when Japanese Foreign Minister Mamoru Shigemitsu and General Yoshijiro Umezu, on board the American warship the U.S.S. Missouri, signed the Potsdam Declaration, a document of surrender that the Allies had drawn up.

Economic Reports/Events

· Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ Business Confidence (August)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (July)

· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Peru Inflation Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· South African President Cyril Ramaphosa will begin a state visit to China that runs through September 5. Ramaphosa is also going to attend the Forum on China-Africa (Focac). China is South Africa’s largest trading partner in Africa with more than $34 billion in exports to South Africa in 2023. South Africa exported more than $12 billion to China in 2023.

· South Korea will conduct a drill in Incheon on how to respond to “Disease X,” an unknown pathogen when it is detected and how to respond.

· The BIMSTEC Summit (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) begins in Bangkok, Thailand and runs through September 4.

· Today is Independence Day in Vietnam, marking the day the country was independent from France in 1945. Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (August)/ Building Permits (July)/ Company Gross Profits Q2/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (August)/ Business Inventories Q2/ Private House Approvals Prel (July)/ Commodity Prices (August)

· Japan Capital Spending Q2/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (August)

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)/ Inflation Rate (August)

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Business Confidence (August)

· China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (August)

· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (August)

· Kazakhstan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

· Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Pakistan Consumer Confidence (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ Wholesale Prices (August)

· Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

French President Emmanual Macron is expected to meet with former Socialist Party official Bernard Cazeneuve about possibly serving as the next French Prime Minister. Macron has been struggling to form a new government after recent elections.
There will be an Informal Meeting of the EU General Affairs Council in Budapest, Hungary, through September 3. The agenda will address two priorities of the Hungarian Presidency – which are interlinked: boosting the EU’s competitiveness and tackling demographic challenges. A plenary session will examine the possibilities of enhancing competitiveness and the rule of law through better law-making, followed by breakout sessions on the different aspects of competitiveness. Ministers will discuss demographic challenges during their working lunch.
The Bled Strategic Forum begins in Bled, Slovenia, and runs through September 3. EU President Ursula von der Leyen will speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Average Weekly Earnings Q2/ Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ GNP Q2

· Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Hungary Balance of Trade Final (June)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Switzerland Retail Sales (July)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Spain Tourist Arrivals (July)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)/ New Car Sales (August)

· Turkey GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ PPI (July)/ New Car Registrations (August)

· France HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (August)

· Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (August)

· Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (August)

· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (August)

· Serbia GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Israel’s largest labor union, the Histadrut Labor Federation, has called for a one-day strike to protest the government’s failure to secure a cease-fire in Gaza and the failure to get the hostages back.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Qatar M2 Money Supply (July)

· Kuwait M2 Money Supply (July)/ Private Bank Lending (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Africa Food Systems Summit begins in Kigali, Rwanda and runs through September 6.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (August)

· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (August)

Tuesday, September 3, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Mexico Unemployment Rate (July)/ Gross Fixed Investment (June)

· USA Redbook (August/31)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (August)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (August)/ Construction Spending (July)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (August)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (August)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (September)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (August)/ Total Vehicle Sales (August)

· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Paraguay Inflation Rate (August)

· Chile Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Mongolia to mark the 85th anniversary of the victory of Soviet and Mongolian forces over Japan in World War II. This is a significant trip as Mongolia is a signatory to the International Criminal Court (ICC) which has a warrant out for the arrest of Putin for war crimes.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Exports/ Imports/ Terms of Trade Q2/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (September/03)

· South Korea Inflation Rate (August)

· Australia Current Account Q2/ Net Exports Contribution to GDP Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Former Volkswagen CEO Martin Winterkorn goes on trial for his role in the “Dieselgate” scandal.

· Russia will host the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok through September 6. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and several other Asian leaders ae expected to attend.

· The 32nd International Defense Industry Exhibition begins in Kielce, Poland. Approximately 800 defense industry representatives will gather to exhibit the latest in military hardware.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank Single Supervisory Mechanism and he European Banking Authority are jointly hosting a conference in Frankfurt looking at supervisory convergence. The conference runs through September 4. Today, a host of international bank regulators and central bankers are speaking including Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu, Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden, European Central Bank Board Members Kerstin Jochnick, Elizabeth McCaul, IMF Deputy Director for Monetary and Capital Markets Marina Moretti, ohn Berrigan, Director General for Financial Stability, Financial Services and Capital Markets Union, European Commission, Jennifer Burns, Deputy Director, Division of Supervision & Regulation, Federal Reserve Board, Agustín Carstens, General Manager of the Bank of International Settlements.

· Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (August)

· Romania PPI (July)

· Hungary GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

· Switzerland Inflation Rate (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· France Budget Balance (July)

· Slovakia Real Wages Q2

· Spain Unemployment Change (August)/ Consumer Confidence (July)

· Turkey Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (August)

· Qatar Financial Centre PMI (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye will travel to China for a state visit through September 6.

· The World Congress on Industrial Biotechnology will convene in Harare, Zimbabwe.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt S&P Global PMI (August)

· South Africa GDP Growth Rate Q2

Wednesday, September 4, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Negotiators from the European Union and the Mercosur trade bloc of South American countries will meet in Brasilia to resume free trade negotiations through September 6.

· The US will host the fifth meeting of the U.S.-South Korea Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group in Washington, DC.

· In Bolivia, the Movement Towards Socialism National Congress will meet. Former President Evo Morales is expected to lay out his strategy to become the next president.

· New York Fashion Week for the Spring/Summer 2025 season begins. Will Derek Zoolander be there? Or Hansel? He’s so hot right now.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/30)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ JOLTs Job Openings (July)/ Factory Orders (July)/ Fed Beige Book/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/30)

· Brazil Industrial Production (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (August)

· Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and press conference/Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

· Uruguay Inflation Rate (August)

· Colombia PPI (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Singapore through September 5.

· The Forum on China-Africa Cooperation begins in Beijing and runs through September 6. This is the largest diplomatic event China has held in recent years. African leaders normally sign a number of large loan agreements with Beijing at this event, but this year may be different as China’s economy struggles and the government is expected to cut back the size of loans.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Australia Ai Group Industry/ Construction/ Manufacturing Index (August)/ Judo Bank Services/ Composite PMI Final (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q2/ GDP Chain Price Index Q2/ GDP Final Consumption Q2/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (August)

· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (August)

· Japan Jibun Bank Services/ Composite PMI Final (August)

· Singapore S&P Global PMI (August)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· China Caixin Services/ Composite PMI (August)

· India HSBC Services/ Composite PMI Final (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August/23)

· Kazakhstan S&P Global Services PMI (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Former Italian Prime Minister and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will give an initial presentation of his landmark report on EU competitiveness to senior members of the various political groups of the European Parliament. The report is likely to propose “a radical change” for EU’s economy. More than 400 pages long, the report looks at the energy, defense, and other major sectors and how they can become more globally competitive. A formal presentation of the report will take place in the latter half of September.

· UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer takes part in first Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) following the end of the summer recess. The UK Parliament came back into session on Monday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will give a keynote speech at the Joint European Banking Authority & European Central Bank international conference "Addressing supervisory challenges through enhanced cooperation" in Frankfurt.

· Ireland AIB Services PMI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

· Russia S&P Global Services/ Composite PMI (August)

· Spain HCOB Services/ Composite PMI (August)

· Italy HCOB Services/ Composite PMI (August)

· France HCOB Services/ Composite PMI (August)

· Germany HCOB Services/ Composite PMI (August)

· Euro Area HCOB Services/ Composite PMI (August)/ PPI (July)

· Slovenia Balance of Trade (July)

· Great Britain S&P Global Composite PMI Final (August)

· Poland Interest Rate Decision (September)

· Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Prel (August)/ Auto Production & Sales (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi will meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara, Turkey. The two leaders are expected to discuss the situation in Gaza and expansion of trade.

Economic Reports/Events –

· United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (August)

· Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (August)

· Israel Tourist Arrivals (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The World Conference on Soil, Water, Energy and Air will take place in Victoria, Seychelles.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (August)

· South Africa S&P Global PMI (August)/ Business Confidence Q3

· Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (August)

· Ghana S&P Global PMI (August)

Thursday, September 5, 202

Global

· In Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, the Fifth Global Conference on Strengthening Synergies between the Paris Agreement on Climate Change and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development: Building a Just World and a Sustainable Planet will be held through September 6. The Conference is being co-convened by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat, and hosted by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The tax fraud trial of Hunter Biden, President Biden’s son, begins in Los Angeles, California.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA Challenger Job Cuts (August)/ ADP Employment Change (August)/ Initial Jobless Claims (August/31)/ S&P Global Services/ Composite PMI (August)/ ISM Services PMI (August)/ EIA Natural Gas & Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (August/30)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/04)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/04)

· Canada Labor Productivity Q2/ S&P Global Services/ Composite PMI (August)

· Ecuador Inflation Rate (August)

· Colombia Exports (July)

· Brazil Car Production (August)/ New Car Registrations (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In Perth, Australia, Japan and Australia hold a 2-plus-2 defense and foreign ministers’ meetings. Japan's Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa and Defense Minister Minoru Kihara will meet with Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Defense Minister Richard Marles in the first 2-plus-2 meeting since late 2022 in Tokyo. The primary focus of the meetings is China’s growing military expansion in the Indo-Pacific.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

· Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Hajime Takata gives a speech to local business leaders in in Ishikawa, Japan/ Japan Average Cash Earnings (July)/ Overtime Pay (July)/ Foreign Bond Investment (August/31)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August/31)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Philippines Inflation Rate (August)

· Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock will give a speech at the Anika Foundation in Sydney, Australia/Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

· Thailand Inflation Rate (August)

· Singapore Retail Sales (July)

· Malaysia Interest Rate Decision

· Taiwan Inflation Rate (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU ministers responsible for cohesion policy in Budapest, Hungary through September 6. The agenda, according to the Hungarian government, which is chairing the EU through December, is to hold a high-level debate on the Policy's role in promoting competitiveness and employment, and effectively addressing demographic challenges.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen will participate in a fireside chat at Handelsblatt Banking Summit 2024 "Navigating the Storm: Banking Amid Interest Rate Changes, Real Estate Crises, and Geopolitical Uncertainty” in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (August)

· Germany Factory Orders (July)/ New Car Registrations (August)

· Romania Retail Sales (July)

· Hungary Balance of Trade Prel (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

· Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ Retail Sales (July)

· Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

· France HCOB Construction PMI (August)/ New Car Registrations (July)

· Germany HCOB Construction PMI (August)

· Italy HCOB Construction PMI (August)

· Great Britain New Car Sales (August)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (August)

· Serbia PPI (August)

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/30)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Jordan PPI (July)

· Israel Business Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Current Account Q2

· Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, September 6, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will give a speech at the University of Notre Dame’s Department of Economics.

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to speak before the C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics organized by the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

· Chile Inflation Rate (August)

· Mexico Auto Exports (August)/ Auto Production (August)

· Canada Unemployment Rate (August)/ Employment Change (August)/ Participation Rate (August)/ Ivey PMI s.a (August)

· USA Unemployment Rate (August)/ Participation Rate (August)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/06)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (August)

· Colombia Inflation Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is expected to travel to Seoul, South Korea for meetings with President Yook Suk Yeol. It will be one of Kishada’s last foreign trips before he steps down from office. Bilateral relations between Japan and South Korea have warmed up considerably since the resolution this past March between the two countries over how to compensate Koreans who were forced to labor for Japanese occupation forces during World War II.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Current Account (July)

· Japan Household Spending (July)/ Coincident Index Prel (July)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (July)

· Philippines Unemployment Rate (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Australia Home Loans (July)/ Investment Lending for Homes (July)

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· India Bank Loan Growth (August/23)/ Deposit Growth (August/23)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/30)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Ukraine Defense Contact Group will meet at Ramstein Airbase in Ramstein, Germany. Approximately 50 countries will be represented at the meeting chaired by US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. The focus of the meeting will be to further coordinate aid as well as find ways to accelerate military aid to Ukraine.

· The 50th European House-Ambrosetti Conference takes place through September 7 in Milan, Italy. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban will speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives a keynote speech at the ESCB Legal Conference 2024 (a virtual event).

· France Non-Farm Payrolls Q2/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Current Account (July)

· Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Industrial Production (July)

· Romania GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est Q2

· Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (August)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (August)

· Hungary Industrial Production Prel (July)/ Budget Balance (August)

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (July)

· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Italy Retail Sales (July)

· Euro Area GDP Growth Rate 3rd Est Q2/ Employment Change Final Q2

· Greece Balance of Trade (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Ireland Construction Output Q2

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ Vehicle Sales (August)

· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Swaziland Independence Day, marking the day the country was granted independence from the UK in 1968.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Saturday, September 7, 2024

Global

· The 13th BRICS Trade Union Forum will occur in Sochi, Russia. The meeting brings together the leaders of the major trade unions of the respective BRIC member nations to better coordinate amongst themselves on worker-related issues.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Undersecretary of Commerce for International Trade Marisa Lago will travel to Tianjin, China, for a meeting with China’s Vice Minister Wang Shouwen. They are expected to discuss a wide range of topics, including US tariffs on China. The meeting will follow the recent visit of US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan to Beijing.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez will visit Beijing and Shanghai for meetings through September 12. Sanchez, who has been plagued with corruption charges against him and his wife, is expected to discuss ongoing trade disputes between the EU and China, which have hit Spain in the areas of pork products, dairy, and brandy exports.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Algeria holds presidential elections. Incumbent President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, who is not popular among the electorate, faces two weak challengers and is expected to win in a landslide.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 8, 2024

Global

The Paralympics’ closing ceremony is held in Paris.
The World Nomad Games begin in Kazakhstan. Athletes compete in 21 different types of sports, including Tug-of-War, Horseback Wrestling, Traditional Archery, Horseback Archery, Kok Boru (where horse riders from two teams compete to tear a goat’s carcass from the ground and break through the opposing team’s defenses and put it in the opponents goal), Mas-Wrestling (where two opponents sit opposite each other, resting their feet on a board between their feet, and pull on a stick. The one who pulls the stick or the other guy or both over the board wins), and more.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the deadline for Mexico’s government to present its 2025 budget proposal to Congress.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture and Fisheries Ministers in Budapest, Hungary through September 10. In addition to the informal meeting of the ministers, there will be a number of programs offering an insight into Hungarian culture and gastronomy. On the 8th of September ministers and their delegations will be welcomed with a Danube cruise and an opening dinner in the House of Music Hungary. The meeting will conclude on the September 10 with a kick-off debate on a farmer-focused post 2027 Common Agricultural Policy Towards a competitive, crisis-proof, sustainable, farmer-friendly and knowledge-based future EU agriculture at the Conference Hall of Várkert Bazaar.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 8/30/24 Francis Kelly 8/30/24

The U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

September 2 - 6, 2024

Washington Gets Back to Work… Sort Of…

And What is Going on at the FDIC?

Monday is Labor Day, the last day of summer, and the virtual starter gun is being fired for what will be a busy and, at times, wild autumn in Washington. Schools are back in session, vacation is over, and Washington is back to work (except Congress, which gets back September 9th).

There really is not anything of note on the regulatory agenda this week—traditionally, this is the week everyone in Washington uses to get back in the groove of work and prep for the onslaught of regulatory meetings and rule-making, lawsuits, legislation, and of course, the November elections.

This past week, the one big event of note was yet another blow-up at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) when FDIC Board Member Jonathan McKernan released a memo blasting the Democratic members of the board—including Chair Marty Gruenberg—for how they intend to move forward in investigating senior FDIC officials for creating and maintaining a toxic workplace, including allegations against Gruenberg. In a closed-door meeting this past Wednesday, the board voted along partisan lines on how the investigation will be conducted.

McKernan said that what was voted on was a “convoluted and complicated process” that limits the information available to outside investigators. However, the public cannot judge for themselves because the board voted to keep the resolution secret and will not publish it.

To be clear as to the extent of the crisis at the FDIC caused by Gruenberg, it is worth reviewing the facts of the situation: Gruenberg, who was cited by an outside review conducted by the law firm Cleary Gottlieb as leading and allowing a highly toxic workplace at the FDIC for years (and apparently is still under investigation in some way) refuses to resign and is allowed to vote on how he should be investigated. The majority of the FDIC board also refuses to allow the public to see the resolution they voted on describing how investigations will be conducted. And Gruenberg will almost assuredly be sitting in the chair for the rest of the year because he knows, and everyone else knows, his successor will almost assuredly not be confirmed by the Senate until the spring of 2025. How the once mighty FDIC has fallen.

As we started this week’s note by saying, the regulators are not conducting much public business. The SEC has a closed meeting scheduled, and one Fed speech has been scheduled.

We hope you enjoy the week – it is going to get very busy the following week and months to come:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· The Senate is out of session for the month of August and returns to work on September 9.

House of Representatives

· The House is out of session for the month of August and returns to work on September 9.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Friday, September 6, 11:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the University of Notre Dame Department of Economics in South Bend, Indiana.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Thursday, September 5, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· Thursday, September 4, 11:00 a.m. – The FTC holds closing arguments before the Administrative Law Judge re: Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Please let us know if you have any questions or want to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 8/30/24 Francis Kelly 8/30/24

The Global Week Ahead

August 25 - September 1, 2024

In Focus: Still Holding Out Hope for a Gaza Cease Fire; US National Security Advisor Sullivan Heads to China for High-Level Talks; Mexico’s Judges Protest Against Sweeping Reforms, and Inflation Data Released Before the Federal Reserve’s Next Meeting

Summer comes to an end this week, and we are all bracing for an extremely busy Autumn in the US and around the world. The tense situation in the Middle East will continue to dominate the attention of markets this week, especially after Israel’s massive preemptive strike this weekend on Hezbollah forces in southern Lebanon. The strike is the biggest military action so far this year between Israeli Defense Forces and Hezbollah forces. More than 100 Israeli fighter jets struck sites across the region, reportedly destroying a number of missile sites – estimated to be more than 40 sites – that were reportedly preparing to strike Tel Aviv and other urban centers in Israel.

Yet, despite this significant uptick in fighting, negotiators are set to meet in Cairo this week, and the Qatari Prime Minister travels to Tehran for talks. Additionally, US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Charles Q. Brown, Jr., is traveling to Israel to ensure defense preparations against further Iranian or Iranian-affiliated attacks, emphasizing the US’ determination to discourage any attacks that could derail negotiations.

It seems some sort of cease-fire deal has been within reach for months now, but sources tell us this time, it is closer than ever. We would note Iran has continued to hold off striking back at Israel following the assassination of a senior Hamas official who was visiting Tehran and the killing of a senior Hezbollah commander last month, actions Iranian officials swore to retaliate for.

Meanwhile, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will travel to Beijing this week for meetings with senior Chinese diplomat Wang Yi. The purpose of the meeting is to discuss ways to improve dialogue between Washington and Beijing, how to further incapacitate the fentanyl trade coming out of China, and surely discussions about China’s support for Russia’s war against Ukraine. While Sullivan has had increasingly regular talks with Wang over the last two years, this is the first time he has visited Beijing for such meetings – and the first time a U.S. National Security Advisor has traveled to Beijing since 2016 when then-National Security Advisor Susan Rice went at the direction of President Barrack Obama.

This will be a big week in Mexico – the United States’ largest trading partner – as the country’s judiciary begins massive protests against a highly controversial “reform” effort by Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) to push through legislation requiring all judges be elected by popular vote instead of being appointed. The worry is this will make the judiciary highly politicized and also allow drug cartels to have an even greater ability to control the legal system. And it has foreign investors deeply worried about what it could do to commercial law in the country. AMLO’s proposal has been endorsed by his successor, Claudia Sheinbaum, who is set to be sworn in as Mexico’s new president in October.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, markets are looking at US PCE and CPI prints this week – the last ones to come out before the Federal Reserve meets to discuss – and, as Fed Chair Jay Powell indicated in a speech in Jackson Hole Friday – begin lowering interest rates. Additionally, the Conference Board releases the closely watched Consumer Confidence Index this week.

In Asia, it is a big week for economic reports. Japan releases its August CPI figures, labor market numbers, and industrial production numbers. China sets its 1-year MLF rate (along with a flood of Chinese corporate earnings), and Australia releases its August CPI.

Turning to Europe, CPI numbers will be out for the Eurozone, Germany, France, Spain, and Italy this week. Germany and France also release consumer confidence reports, giving investors a deeper sense of whether the two economic engines of Europe are getting back on track or will continue sputtering.

Here is what else we are watching closely around the world this coming week:

Sunday, August 25, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Mexican judicial workers – including judges – will rally in Mexico City to protest sweeping government-sponsored judicial reforms. The proposals, being pushed through by President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, have come under heavy criticism not only inside Mexico but from abroad. Both the US Ambassador to Mexico, Ken Salazar, called the reforms a “major risk to democracy.” The Canadian Ambassador to Mexico, Graham Clark, said, “My investors are concerned, they want stability, they want a judicial system that works if there are problems.”

· In Argentina, unionized pilots flying for Aerolineas Argentinas will strike and stage demonstrations at Argentina's commercial airports through August 30.

· Today is Uruguay Independence Day, marking the day in 1828 when the country gained its independence from Portugal.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Day of Songun, a national holiday in North Korea. The day celebrating the start of the military-first rule in the nation under the leadership of Kim Jong-Il in 1948.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in panel discussion at The Rimini Meeting 2024 "Se non siamo alla ricerca dell'essenziale, allora cosa cerchiamo?" in Rimini, Italy.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The Shiite Arbaeen pilgrimage, which commemorates the martyrdom of Imam Hussein, will take place in Karbala, Iraq. It is considered one of the world’s largest public gatherings.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs hosts the Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD) Ministerial Meeting.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, August 26, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh meets with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan in Washington, DC. Singh will also chair a high-level roundtable with defense industry executives regarding ongoing and future defense collaborations.

· The 10th Annual AmeriGEO Conference, hosted by Ecuador’s Secretariat for Risk Management and Military Geographic Institute, takes place in Quito, Ecuador. The conference, which will be attended by senior government official from throughout the Hemisphere seeks to “brings together diverse communities and builds connections, fostering collaboration among national, regional, and international efforts in integrated Earth and social science research.’

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence AUG/ Current Account JUL/ Foreign Direct Investment JUL/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Canada Wholesale Sales MoM Prel JUL

· USA Durable Goods Orders MoM JUL/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index AUG

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The 53rd Pacific Islands Forum Leaders meeting takes place in Tonga. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will speak. The main topics are expected to be climate change and ongoing tensions between China and the US.

· The US and Indonesia hold Garuda Shield, a military exercise in Indonesia.

· Today is National Heroes Day in the Philippines, honoring all those who died for the independence of the country.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade JUL

· Singapore Industrial Production YoY JUL

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi travels to the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant in Russia. Grossi is traveling to inspect the plant following Russian drone attacks last week which damaged the facility. Russian President Vladimir Putin has accused Ukraine of attacking the plant but evidence suggests it was actually Russian drones that hit the plant.

· French President Emmanuel Macron will meet the leaders of the far-right National Rally party alongside the leader of the center-right Les Republicains party, Eric Ciotti, as part of ongoing government formation consultations.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris.

· Today is the late Summer Bank Holiday in the UK.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ireland Consumer Confidence AUG

· Hungary Gross Wage YoY JUN

· Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls Q2

· Spain PPI YoY JUL

· Turkey Business Confidence AUG/ Capacity Utilization AUG

· Germany Ifo Business Climate AUG/ Ifo Current Conditions AUG/ Ifo Expectations AUG

· Poland Unemployment Rate JUL

· Slovenia Business Confidence AUG

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani is expected to travel to Tehran, Iran for meeting with senior Iranian officials regarding the state of negotiations over Gaza as well as the looming threat of an attack by Iran on Israel. Qatar and Egypt along with the US have acted as mediators in efforts to secure a ceasefire in Gaza to end the 10-month long war. Talks are expected resume later this week between representatives of Hamas and Israel either in Cairo or in Qatar.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Lebanon Inflation Rate YoY JUL

· Qatar M2 Money Supply YoY JUL

· Israel Manufacturing PMI JUN/ Manufacturing PMI JUL

· Kuwait Private Bank Lending YoY JUL

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria GDP Growth Rate YoY Q2

Tuesday, August 27, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will travel to Beijing. He will meet with top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi to discuss a range of issue ranging from Taiwan to US-China military talks and fentanyl. This is the first visit by a US National Security Advisor to China since 2016.

· SpaceX will attempt the first ever private spacewalk.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI YoY AUG

· Mexico Balance of Trade JUL

· USA Redbook YoY AUG/24/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY JUN/ House Price Index JUN/ CB Consumer Confidence AUG/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index AUG/ Dallas Fed Services Index AUG/ NY Fed Treasury Purchases 22.5 to 30 yrs/ Money Supply JUL/ API Crude Oil Stock Change AUG/23

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Industrial Profits (YTD) YoY JUL

· Taiwan Consumer Confidence AUG

· Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment AUG

· Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade JUL

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez begins a multi-day visits Mauritania, Gambia and Senegal.

· Today is Independence Day in Moldova, marking when the country gained its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q2

· Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades AUG

· Hungary Deposit Interest Rate AUG/ Interest Rate Decision

· Spain Consumer Confidence JUL

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The US-Africa Nuclear Energy Summit takes place in Nairobi, Kenya.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Zimbabwe Inflation Rate MoM AUG

Wednesday, August 28, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Syria).

· The 2024 Summer Paralympics begin in Paris and run through September 8.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Chilean government authorities will attend the "Chile Summit India 2024" in New Delhi and Mumbai through August 30.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on payments at the Global Fintech Festival 2024, Mumbai, India.

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index AUG/23/ MBA Purchase Index AUG/23/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change AUG/23

· Uruguay Unemployment Rate JUL

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia Monthly CPI Indicator JUL/ Construction Work Done QoQ Q2

· Philippines Budget Balance JUL

· Malaysia PPI YoY JUL

· Japan Coincident Index Final JUN/ Leading Economic Index Final JUN

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer visits Germany for meetings with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz his first visit to Germany since being elected Prime Minister.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany GfK Consumer Confidence SEP

· France Consumer Confidence AUG/ Unemployment Benefit Claims JUL/ Jobseekers Total JUL

· Slovakia Business & Consumer Confidence AUG

· Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final JUL

· Euro Area Loans to Companies & Households YoY JUL/ M3 Money Supply YoY JUL

· Italy Industrial Sales YoY JUN

· Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index AUG

· Slovenia Retail Sales YoY JUL

· Greece Total Credit YoY JUL

· Russia Unemployment Rate JUL/ Business Confidence AUG/ Corporate Profits JUN/ Industrial Production YoY JUL/ Real Wage Growth YoY JUN/ Retail Sales YoY JUL/ GDP YoY JUL

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Interest Rate Decision

· Qatar GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1

· Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply YoY JUL/ Private Bank Lending YoY JUL

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, August 29, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution to extend the mandate of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), followed by consultations on the 1718 Committee.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US and Argentina sign a memorandum of understanding for the export of critical minerals to the US.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to give "Introduction to the Federal Reserve and an Economic Outlook" presentation before a Georgia Tech Scheller College of Business Management of Financial Institutions class in Atlanta, Georgia.

· Brazil IGP-M Inflation MoM AUG/ Bank Lending MoM JUL/ PPI YoY JUL/ Net Payrolls JUL

· Canada Current Account Q2/ Average Weekly Earnings YoY JUN

· USA GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est Q2/ Corporate Profits QoQ Prel Q2/ GDP Price Index QoQ 2nd Est Q2/ Goods Trade Balance Adv JUL/ Initial Jobless Claims AUG/24/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv JUL/ Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv JUL/ Core PCE Prices QoQ 2nd Est Q2/ PCE Prices QoQ 2nd Est Q2/ Real Consumer Spending QoQ 2nd Est Q2/ Pending Home Sales YoY JUL/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change AUG/23/ Fed Balance Sheet AUG/28

· Chile Unemployment Rate JUL

· Colombia Business Confidence JUL

· Argentina Consumer Confidence AUG

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment AUG/24/ Stock Investment by Foreigners AUG/24

· New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence AUG

· Australia Building Capital Expenditure QoQ Q2/ Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure QoQ Q2/ Private Capital Expenditure QoQ Q2

· Vietnam Balance of Trade AUG/ Industrial Production YoY AUG/ Inflation Rate YoY AUG/ Retail Sales YoY AUG/ Tourist Arrivals YoY AUG

· Singapore Export Prices YoY JUL/ Import Prices YoY JUL/ PPI YoY JUL

· Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· EU Foreign Affairs Ministers will hold an informal meeting in Brussels.

· French President Emmanuel Macron visits Serbia for meetings with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic. They will discuss ways to broaden economic ties but also Artificial Intelligence. Serbia is chairing the Global Partnership on Artificial Intelligence – an initiative set up by Macron and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

· Today is the deadline for nominations to be submitted for EU Commissioners.

· Today is the anniversary of the Slovak National Uprising, marking the day in 1944 when the people of Slovakia rose up against Nazi rule.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane will participate on a panel entitled "Inflation – Challenges for Policymakers and Researchers" organized by Brandeis University/CEBRA at annual Central Bank Research Association meeting organized with the Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE and Deutsche Bundesbank in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Great Britain Car Production YoY JUL

· European Union New Car Registrations YoY JUL

· Spain Inflation Rate YoY Prel AUG/ Business Confidence AUG

· Turkey Economic Confidence Index AUG/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves AUG/23

· Germany Baden Wuerttemberg CPI YoY AUG/ Bavaria CPI YoY AUG/ Brandenburg CPI YoY AUG/ Hesse CPI YoY AUG/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI YoY AUG/ Saxony CPI YoY AUG/ Inflation Rate YoY Prel AUG

· Poland GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q2

· Euro Area Economic Sentiment AUG/ Consumer Confidence Final AUG/ Consumer Inflation Expectations AUG/ Industrial Sentiment AUG/ Selling Price Expectations AUG/ Services Sentiment AUG

· Greece Unemployment Rate JUL

· Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate YoY Prel AUG/ Wholesale Prices YoY JUL

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Turkey will host Iraqi, Qatari and Emirati officials for a Development Road Summit in Istanbul. The estimated $20 billion project aims connect Iraq’s Basra port on the Persian Gulf to Turkey and beyond. The UAE and Qatar are potential investors in the project.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Qatar Balance of Trade JUL

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa PPI YoY JUL

Friday, August 30, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer AUG/ GDP Growth Rate Annualized Q2/ GDP MoM JUN/ Budget Balance JUN

· Brazil Gross Debt to GDP JUL/ Nominal Budget Balance JUL/ Unemployment Rate JUL

· USA PCE Price Index YoY JUL/ Personal Income & Spending JUL/ Chicago PMI AUG/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Expectations Final AUG

· Chile Copper Production YoY JUL/ Industrial Production YoY JUL/ Manufacturing Production YoY JUL/ Retail Sales YoY JUL

· Colombia Unemployment Rate JUL

· Uruguay Balance of Trade JUL

· Mexico Fiscal Balance JUL

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Popular Consultation Day in East Timor. It marks the day when the country held a referendum in 1999 to let the people of East Timor choose between greater autonomy in Indonesia or separation.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence AUG/ Building Permits MoM JUL

· South Korea Industrial Production YoY JUL/ Retail Sales MoM JUL

· Japan Unemployment Rate JUL/ Tokyo CPI AUG/ Retail Sales YoY JUL/ Industrial Production YoY JUL/ Consumer Confidence AUG/ Housing Starts YoY JUL/ Construction Orders YoY JUL

· Philippines PPI YoY JUL

· Australia Housing Credit MoM JUL/ Retail Sales MoM JUL/ Private Sector Credit YoY JUL

· Singapore Bank Lending JUL

· Thailand Industrial Production YoY JUL/ Current Account JUL/ Private Consumption & Investment JUL/ Retail Sales YoY JUN

· Malaysia M3 Money Supply YoY JUL

· Hong Kong Retail Sales YoY JUL

· Sri Lanka Inflation Rate YoY AUG/ PPI YoY JUL/ Balance of Trade JUL

· India Government Budget Value JUL/ Foreign Exchange Reserves AUG/23/ Infrastructure Output YoY JUL/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Q2

· Pakistan Consumer Confidence AUG

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· EU Defense Ministers will hold an informal meeting in Brussels.

· Members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization will conduct weeks-long military exercises in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to maintain regional stability amid threats emanating from Afghanistan.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a lecture at Ragnar Nurkse Lecture Series organized by Bank of Estonia in Tallinn, Estonia.

· European Central Bank Board member Kerstin af Jochnick participates on a panel at the joint European Banking Authority & European Central Bank international conference on Supervisory Cooperation in Frankfurt, Germany.

· France Private Non-Farm Payrolls QoQ Final Q2/ Inflation Rate YoY Prel AUG/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q2/ Household Consumption MoM JUL/ PPI YoY JUL

· Germany Retail Sales YoY MAY/ Import Prices YoY JUL/ Unemployed Persons/ Change/ Rate AUG

· Romania Unemployment Rate JUL

· Hungary PPI YoY JUL

· Spain Retail Sales YoY JUL/ Current Account JUN

· Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators AUG

· Italy Unemployment Rate JUL/ Inflation Rate Prel AUG/ Business & Consumer Confidence AUG

· Poland Inflation Rate YoY Prel AUG

· Slovenia Inflation Rate YoY AUG

· Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit JUL/ Mortgage Approvals & Lending JUL/ M4 Money Supply MoM JUL/ Net Lending to Individuals MoM JUL

· Euro Area Inflation Rate Flash AUG/ Unemployment Rate JUL/ CPI Flash AUG

· Greece PPI YoY JUL/ Retail Sales YoY JUN

· Ireland Retail Sales YoY JUL

· Serbia Balance of Trade JUL/ Industrial Production YoY JUL/ Retail Sales YoY JUL/ Unemployment Rate Q2

· Ukraine Current Account JUL

· Russia M2 Money Supply YoY JUL

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Turkey Victory Day, marking the day in 1922 when Turkish military forces defeated the Greeks at the Battle of Dumlupinar. Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· A special session of the African Ministerial Conference on the Environment and the UN Convention to Combat Desertification will be held in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa M3 Money Supply YoY JUL/ Private Sector Credit YoY JUL/ Balance of Trade JUL/ Budget Balance JUL

· Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves AUG

· Kenya Inflation Rate YoY AUG

· Egypt M2 Money Supply YoY JUL

Saturday, August 31, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Trinidad and Tobago Independence Day, celebrating when the country gained its independence from Britain in 1962.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Niue, an island country in free association with New Zealand, holds a constitutional referendum which will change the head of government from a Premier to a Prime Minister, extend the term length of members of the assembly from three to four years, increase the size of the cabinet from four to six members, and make the Auditor-General of New Zealand as the country’s official auditor.

· Today is Kyrgyzstan Independence Day, marking the day the country declared independence from the Soviet Union in 1992.

· Today is Malaysia Independence Day, marking the day the country gained its independence from Britain in 1957.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China NBS Non- & Manufacturing PMI AUG/ NBS General PMI AUG

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 1, 2024

Global

· Slovenia assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of September.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador gives an annual speech on the executive branch’s accomplishments, similar to a state of the nation address.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Indonesia hosts the 2nd Annual Indonesia-Africa Forum in Bali. Indonesian President Joko Widodo and more than 30 African leaders will meet for three days to discuss how to deepen political and economic ties and build stronger supply chains and healthcare systems.

· Azerbaijan holds parliamentary elections.

· Today is Uzbekistan Independence Day, celebrating when the country was able to declare its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

· Today is Constitution Day in Kazakhstan.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade AUG

· Australia CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM AUG

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· In Germany, state elections will be held in Saxony and Thuringia.

· Czechia will hold regional elections and the election of one-third of the Senate.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 8/23/24 Francis Kelly 8/23/24

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Washington Slowly Creeps Back to Work

August 26 - 30, 2024

For much of the US, schools are back in session, and most folks have wrapped up their summer holidays. But in Washington, next week is the last week of summer holidays. Which means it will still be mostly quiet around town and at the regulatory agencies. The only regulatory activity we can find is the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) holding an open meeting and the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) holding an administrative court hearing about horse racing. But as the last week showed, Washington is slowly getting back to work and getting revved up for a busy fall.

Perhaps the significant event last week was not in Washington but in Texas, where a federal judge blocked the FTC’s sweeping ban on noncompete agreements. The ruling slammed the FTC, saying, “In sum, the Rule is based on inconsistent and flawed empirical evidence, fails to consider the positive benefits of non-compete agreements, and disregards the substantial body of evidence supporting these agreements.” The FTC is likely to appeal the ruling, but it does not look good that the FTC will ultimately succeed – as most observers predicted when the FTC first launched into this effort.

Meanwhile, the FDIC announced the hiring of a former federal prosecutor to oversee the agency’s efforts to root out the toxic workplace culture exposed in an independent report earlier this year. Carrie Cohen, who currently is the co-chair of the investigations and white-collar practice at the law firm of Morrison Foerster and is a former Assistant District Attorney in the Southern District of New York, was hired by the board. Her hiring triggered a new round of Congressional Republicans to demand the immediate resignation of current FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg (who continues to refuse to resign until a replacement is confirmed by the Senate – which probably won’t happen until 2025).

Finally, we saw Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr speak about the constant battle banks and regulators are waging against cyberattacks and technology failures. Barr said such attacks are increasingly growing as threats: “There is a lot of work to do. It is a constant process, a constant battle as the technology changes.”

We expect the week of September 1st (Labor Day) we will see a significant pick up of events. Until then, enjoy the relative quiet! Below is the listing of events among regulators in the coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· The Senate is out of session for the month of August and returns to work on September 9.

House of Representatives

· The House is out of session for the month of August and returns to work on September 9.

US Regulatory and Administrative Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

Wednesday, August 28, 1:15 a.m. EST – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on payments at the Global Fintech Festival 2024, Mumbai, India.
Thursday, August 29, 2:30 p.m. CT – Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to give an "Introduction to the Federal Reserve and an Economic Outlook" presentation before a Georgia Tech Scheller College of Business Management of Financial Institutions class.

U.S. Treasury Department

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

Wednesday, August 28, 10:00 a.m. – The SEC will hold an Open Meeting. They will consider adopting amendments to reporting requirements on Forms N-PORT and N-CEN.
Thursday, August 29, 2:00 p.m. – the SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

Thursday, August 29, 9:30 a.m. – The Federal Trade Commission holds an evidentiary hearing before an Administrative Law Judge on Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority.

Farm Credit Administration

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Think Tanks and Other Events

Monday, August 26, 2:00 p.m. – The Urban Institute holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 2 p.m., on "Identifying Solutions to Address Wealth Inequities: A Conversation with Government, Business, and Nonprofit Leaders.
Tuesday, August 27, 2:00 p.m. – The Bipartisan Policy Center holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 2 p.m., on "Reforming the HCV (Housing Choice Voucher) Program Through Direct Rental Assistance."
Wednesday, August 28, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 9 a.m., on "The Bank-Sovereign Nexus in Developing and Emerging Economies."
Thursday, August 29, 12:30 p.m. – The Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 12:30 p.m., on "Understanding the Regulatory Landscape for Private Fund Advisers."

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 8/23/24 Francis Kelly 8/23/24

The Global Week Ahead

Could There Finally Be A Ceasefire in Gaza? Indian Prime Minister Modi Makes a Historic Visit to Ukraine, and Central Bankers Gather in Jackson Hole

August 18 - 25, 2024

The situation in the Middle East will continue to dominate the geopolitical outlook this week as negotiations seeking a ceasefire in Gaza, and the release of hostages held by Hamas appear to have gotten closer to an agreement. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will travel to the region again this week – his ninth trip there this year – hoping to clinch a deal. But ongoing fighting between Hezbollah forces and Israeli forces intensified over the weekend and risks escalating into a far larger regional fight.

Meanwhile, the Democratic National Convention begins in Chicago. As many as 50,000 people are expected to participate. But the party nomination of Vice President Kamala Harris may be marred by widespread protests by activists opposed to the Biden Administration’s supportive policy for Israel in Gaza.

This coming week will mark a historic first: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to visit Kyiv, Ukraine to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Modi is seeking to play a role in helping to broker a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, an effort that has been publicly encouraged by the US. Modi will also visit Poland, the first time an Indian Prime Minister has visited the nation in 40 years.

Another important diplomatic trip this week is Vietnam’s new leader, To Lam, making his first official visit to China and his first overseas visit as President. He will meet with President Xi Jinping, where the two leaders will likely finalize an important railroad deal and discuss ongoing tensions between the two nations over disputed territory in the South China Sea. Vietnam has been stepping up its international diplomatic and trade efforts this year, upgrading ties with the US, Japan, and India. But Vietnam also hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin in June, raising eyebrows in Tokyo, Washington, and Brussels.

Turning to the global markets and major economic events this coming week, markets will be laser-focused on Jackson Hole, Wyoming where the annual Kansas City Federal Reserve Conference will feature most of the leading international central bank chiefs. Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell will give a much-anticipated speech Friday and markets will be hoping for further indications of interest rate cuts being made at the next Federal Open Markets Committee meeting in September.

Also this week, both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will be releasing minutes from their last interest rate meetings. The ECB will also be releasing their consumer expectations survey on Friday.

This week’s other important releases this week include PPIs out of Germany, the UK, and Eurozone, while Japan releases CPI and July trade balance figures. Also of note in Japan this week, the Japanese Parliament (Diet) will hold a joint Lower House and Upper House Financial Affairs Committee hearing featuring Bank of Japan Governor Kajuo Ueda and Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki to discuss the Bank’s rate increase in July and what it might mean for Japan’s economy longer term.

Below is what else we are watching closely this coming week:

Sunday, August 18, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Vietnam’s new President and Communist Party Chief To Lam will visit China for meetings with President Xi Jinping. During the three-day visit, Lam is expected seek Xi’s support for his country’s rial projects as well as discuss ongoing disputes with China over the South China Sea.

· In Singapore, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong delivers the annual National Day Rally

speech, his inaugural address after taking office on May 15. He is Singapore’s fourth prime

minister and his becoming Prime Minister is the nation’s first leadership change in 20 years. He is expected to focus on plans to expand the social safety net in the country.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Azerbaijan for talks with President Ilham Aliyev on how to improve the two nation’s strategic relationship. The two leaders are also expected to discuss the fragile settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan following a 44-day war in 2020. But the major issue for Putin is to secure the Russian gas supplies to Azerbaijan.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel GDP Growth Annualized 1st Est Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The 44th Ordinary Summit of the Southern African Development Community Heads of State and Government meets in in Harare, Zimbabwe. The theme of the conference is “Promoting Innovation to unlock opportunities for sustained economic growth and development towards an Industrialised SADC”.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, August 19, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will return to the Middle East in a bid to finalize a cease-fire agreement in Gaza and the release of hostages held by Hamas. Blinken will mee with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and then may travel to Cairo, Egypt and Doha, Qatar in a bid to finalize the deal.

· The US Democratic Party Presidential Convention begins in Chicago, Illinois and runs through August 22.

· Today is San Martin Day in Argentina, a national holiday. Markets are closed. But Unionized pilots flying for Aerolineas Argentinas are expected to strike and stage demonstrations at Argentina's commercial airports through Aug. 30.

· The US Congress continues to be on August recess. They return to work September 9.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives welcoming remarks at the 2024 Summer Workshop on Money, Banking, Payments, and Finance which is hosted by the Federal Reserve Board in Washington, D.C.

· Chile Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· USA Fed Waller Speech

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan and India will hold “2+2” talks between Japanese Defense Minister Minoru Kihara, Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa, and Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar and Defense Minister Rajnath Singh in New Delhi. The two countries are looking to enhance mutual security ties and defense equipment sharing.

· Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will visit India for talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This is the first time Modi and Anwar have met since Anwar became prime minister. The two are expected to sign a number of trade agreements.

· The US and South Korea military forces will be conducting training event code-named Ulchi Freedom Shield in South Korea through August 29. Additionally, South Korean civilians will hold evacuation drills through August 22.

· Today is Revolution Commemoration Day in Vietnam, marking the day in 1945 when the revolution led by Ho Chi Minh ended Japanese occupation.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (July)

· Japan Machinery Orders (June)

· Thailand GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The Deutsche Bundesbank, Foundations of Law and Finance, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management and CEPR are co-sponsoring a conference on Regulating Financial Markets in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Spain Balance of Trade (June)/ Consumer Confidence (July)

· Turkey Auto Production (July)/ Auto Sales (July)

· Slovakia Unemployment Rate (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Qatar M2 Money Supply (June)/ M2 Money Supply (July)/ Total Credit Growth (June)/ Total Credit Growth (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Kenya Aviation Workers Union have cancelled their plans to begin strike action to denounce an investment by India's Adani Airport Holdings that would see the group manage the operations of Nairobi's Jomo Kenyatta International Airport.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ M3 Money Supply (July)

· Ghana PPI (July)

Tuesday, August 20, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), as well as Libya sanctions.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Both Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign and former President Donald Trump’s campaign are expected to file financial disclosures with the Federal Election Commission revealing how much money the respective campaigns raised in July.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr participates in a discussion on cybersecurity a the Joint Financial and Banking Information Infrastructure Committee-Financial Services Sector Coordinating Council Meeting being held in Washington, D.C.

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to participate in fireside chat before hybrid "Innovating for Inclusion" forum at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

· Mexico Retail Sales (June)

· Canada Inflation Rate (July)/ CPI Median (July)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (July)

· USA Redbook (August/17/API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/16)

· Argentina Balance of Trade (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The date for the ruling Japanese LDP Leadership elections will be finalized today. (they will be sometime this fall) and will determine who the next prime minister will be. This comes after current Prime Minister Kishida's announced that he would not run for re-election in September.

· Ministers from Japan and its Asian neighbors gather for an Asia Zero Emission Community (AZEC) meeting in Jakarta. AZEC was created by Japan in 2022 to encourage eleven partner countries to further advance carbon neutrality. The attending nations will discuss ways to develop and spread a range of decarbonization technologies in the energy and transportation sectors. The ministerial meeting is set to be attended by Japan, Australia and members of the 10-nation ASEAN, except Myanmar.

· The Taiwanese Air Force and Navy will hold live-fire exercises. The event is expected to disrupt some fishing and commercial shipping off the island’s southeastern coast.

· The 9th Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD 9) begins in Tokyo, Japan and runs through August 22.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Consumer Confidence (August)

· New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (August/20)

· China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & Loan Prime Rate 5Y (August)

· Australia RBA Meeting Minutes

· Taiwan Export Orders (July)/ Current Account Q2

· Hong Kong Inflation Rate (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· European Union President Ursula von der Leyden delivers a speech at the groundbreaking ceremony for the European Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (ESMC) semiconductor plant – being built by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) in Dresden, Germany. This is TSMC’s first plant in Europe and a critical component of its plant to build a global production footprint. The plant, which is expected to cost $10.8 billion to construct, is expected to open in late 2027. It will further solidify Dresden as a major semiconductor center as the new plant will sit next to Bosch’s semiconductor plant and close to Infineon’s plant (which is currently undergoing a $5 billion expansion).

· Today is National Day in Hungary as well as St. Stephen's Day (the patron saint of Hungary), a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany PPI (July)

· Switzerland Balance of Trade (July)

· Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)

· Euro Area Current Account (June)/ Inflation Rate Final (July)/ Construction Output (June)/ CPI Final (July)/ Negotiated Wage Growth Q2

· Italy Current Account (June)

· Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing Rate (August)/ Overnight Lending Rate (August)/ Central Government Debt (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Unemployment Rate (July)

· Kuwait Inflation Rate (July)

· Jordan Industrial Production (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The 2nd Namibia Oil and Gas Conference begins in Windhoek, Namibia. The country has become an oil exploration hotspot after large discoveries in recent years with an estimated 11 billion barrels of light oil and 2.2 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, August 21, 2024

Global

· UN Secretary-General António Guterres begins series of visits in the Pacific Islands and Asia. First, he will go to Samoa (August 21 – 23) where he will meet with Prime Minister Fiamē Naomi Mataʻafa. His visit will focus on the impacts of climate change in the country. He will then go to New Zealand (August 23- 24), where he will meet with Prime Minister Christopher Luxon. From there, he will go to Tonga from (August 24-27) where he will participate in the Pacific Islands Forum. He is expected to meet with the Prime Minister of Tonga, Mr. Siaosi 'Ofakivahafolau Sovaleni, as well as other leaders attending the Forum. The Secretary-General will then go to Timor-Leste (August 28 -31). Guterres will then head to Singapore (September 1-2) where he will meet with President Tharman Shanmugaratnam and Prime Minister Wong Lawrence. From there he will head to China (September 2 – 5), where he will meet with President Xi Jinping and participate in the 2024 Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Peacebuilding and sustaining peace: The New Agenda for Peace – Addressing global, regional and national aspects of conflict prevention.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA MBA Purchase Index (August/16)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (August/16)/ FOMC Minutes/

· Canada New Housing Price Index (July)/ PPI (July)/ Raw Materials Prices (July)

· Argentina Economic Activity (June)

· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Taiwan hosts the Ketagalan Security Forum. Sponsored by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Forum. Former Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihdo Noa, former US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, and a number of other prominent political figures from around the world will also attend and speak.

· The World Robot Conference begins in Beijing, China and runs through August 25.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Business Confidence (August)/ PPI (July)

· Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

· Australia Westpac Leading Index (July)

· Indonesia Property Price Index Q2/ Loan Growth (July)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit Facility Rate (August)/ Lending Facility Rate (August)

· New Zealand Credit Card Spending (July)

· Thailand Interest Rate Decision

· India M3 Money Supply (August/09)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Poland, the first time an Indian Prime Minister has visited in 40 years. Modi is then expected (but still to be confirmed) to travel on August 23 to Kyiv to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky which would be the first time an Indian Prime Minister has visited the country.

· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visits Moldova for talks on mutual security matters and Moldova’s efforts to gain membership to the EU.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Italy Governor Fabio Panetta will give a speech at the Rimini Meeting on Italian debt sustainability and economic development.

· Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing (July)

· Greece Current Account (June)

· Poland Corporate Sector Wages (July)/ Employment Growth (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ PPI (July)

· Slovenia PPI (July)

· Russia PPI (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (June)/ Inflation Expectations (August)

· Lebanon Inflation Rate (July)

· Oman Inflation Rate (July)/ M2 Money Supply (June)/ Total Credit (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Rate (July)

Thursday, August 22, 2024

Global

· The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosts the Jackson Hole Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. This year’s theme is “Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy.”

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Teamsters Union has set today as the deadline to reach a new labor agreement with the Canadian National Railway and Pacific Kansas City Rail or go on strike, which would cripple shipping in Canada.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Peru Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Mexico GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ Economic Activity (June)/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (August)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (July)/ Initial Jobless Claims (August/17)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)/ Existing Home Sales (July)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (August/16)/ Kansas Fed Composite/ Manufacturing Index (August)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/21)/ Fed Balance Sheet (August/21)/ Jackson Hole Symposium

· Argentina Retail Sales (June)

· Paraguay PPI (July)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia Judo Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (August/17)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August/17)/ Jibun Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)

· South Korea Interest Rate Decision

· Indonesia Current Account Q2

· Malaysia Inflation Rate (July)

· India HSBC Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)

· Taiwan Unemployment Rate (July)

· Thailand New Car Sales (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The ECB releases Monetary Policy Meeting minutes

· Turkey Consumer Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/16)

· France HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)

· Germany HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)

· Euro Area HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)/ Consumer Confidence Flash (August)

· Poland Retail Sales (July)

· Great Britain S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (August)

· Ireland Wholesale Prices (July)

· Slovakia Current Account (June)

· Slovenia Unemployment Rate (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

· Israel M1 Money Supply (July)/ Composite Economic Index (July)

· Kuwait M2 Money Supply (July)/ Private Bank Lending (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Friday, August 23, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Argentine President Javier Milei will attend the Mexican chapter of the CPAP Conservative Political Action Conference in Mexico City. Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has refused to meet with Milei because he is Milei is attending the conference.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell will give a speech on the Economic Outlook at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Jackson Hole Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

· Canada Retail Sales (June)/ Manufacturing Sales Prel (July)

· Chile PPI (July)

· New Home Sales (July)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/23)/ Building Permits Final (July)/ Jackson Hole Symposium

· Mexico Current Account Q2

· El Salvador Balance of Trade (July)

· Argentina Leading Indicator (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Japanese Committee on Financial Affairs of the House of Representatives (Lower House) and the Committee on Financial Affairs of the House of Councilors (Upper House) meet with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda and Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki to hear about the Bank’s July rate hike and expected financial market trends.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Retail Sales Q2

· Japan Inflation Rate (July)

· Indonesia M2 Money Supply (July)

· Malaysia Coincident Index (June)/ Leading Index (June)

· Singapore Inflation Rate (July)

· Taiwan Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)/ M2 Money Supply (July)

· India Bank Loan Growth (August/09)/ Deposit Growth (August/09)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/16)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· French President Emmanual Macron begins consultations with political leaders about forming a new government and the selection of a new prime minister. The next parliamentary session begins October 1, but forming a new government is going to be difficult as the margins between the various political parties is slim. Outgoing Prime Minister Gabriel Attal is serving as a caretaker until a new government is formed.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

· Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (August)/ CBI Distributive Trades (August)

· Ireland Consumer Confidence (August)

· Hungary Unemployment Rate (July)

· France Business Confidence (August)/ Business Climate Indicator (August)

· Turkey Tourist Arrivals (July)

· Slovenia Consumer Confidence (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)

· Poland M3 Money Supply (July)

· Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (July)

· Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q2

Saturday, August 24, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Ukraine Independence Day, making the day in 1991 when it gained its freedom from the Soviet Union.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a panel session "Reassessing the effectiveness and transmission of monetary policy" at Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Economic Policy Symposium 2024 in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, August 25, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Uruguay Independence Day, marking the day in 1828 when the country gained its independence from Portugal.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Day of Songun, a national holiday in North Korea. The day celebrates the start of the military-first rule in the nation under the leadership of Kim Jong-Il in 1948.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in panel discussion at The Rimini Meeting 2024 "Se non siamo alla ricerca dell'essenziale, allora cosa cerchiamo?" in Rimini, Italy.

Fulcrum Perspectives

Mexico’s Senate Holds Final Vote on Controversial Judicial Reform Bill; Trump and Harris Debate, and the ECB Makes A Tough Call on Interest Rates

September 9 - 13, 2024

Sunday, September 8, 2024

Monday, September 9, 2024

Tuesday, September 10, 2024

Wednesday, September 11, 2024

Thursday, September 12, 2024

Friday, September 13, 2024

Saturday, September 14, 2024

Sunday, September 15, 2024

Moving to Full Throttle: Washington Ramps Up On Multiple Regulatory Fronts This Week

September 9 - 13, 2024

Mexico's Judicial Reform Risk, Bad Best on "Peak China," and Germany's Economic Challenge

September 1 - 8, 2024

Sunday, September 1, 2024

Monday, September 2, 2024

Tuesday, September 3, 2024

Wednesday, September 4, 2024

Thursday, September 5, 202

Friday, September 6, 2024

Saturday, September 7, 2024

Sunday, September 8, 2024

September 2 - 6, 2024

Washington Gets Back to Work… Sort Of…

And What is Going on at the FDIC?

August 30 - September 1, 2024

Geoeconomics & Markets

Mexico’s Judicial Reform Crisis

China’s Unemployment and the World Economy

German State Elections

August 25 - September 1, 2024

Washington Slowly Creeps Back to Work

August 26 - 30, 2024

The Ongoing Crisis in Venezuela, Demographic Challenges Globally, and How is the Inflation Reduction Act Working Out?

August 23 - 25, 2024

The Crisis in Venezuela

U.S. Elections 2024

Global Demographic Trends

Geoeconomics and Industrial Policy

Could There Finally Be A Ceasefire in Gaza? Indian Prime Minister Modi Makes a Historic Visit to Ukraine, and Central Bankers Gather in Jackson Hole

August 18 - 25, 2024

Sunday, August 18, 2024

Monday, August 19, 2024

Tuesday, August 20, 2024

Wednesday, August 21, 2024

Thursday, August 22, 2024

Friday, August 23, 2024

Saturday, August 24, 2024

Sunday, August 25, 2024

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