Fulcrum Perspectives
An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis.
The Global Week Ahead
Trade Deal and Tariff Deadlines Dominate the Geopolitical Week, Japan’s Diet Meets on the Future of Ruling Coalition, the UN Holds a Conference on a Two-State Solution, and the Fed Meets on Interest Rates
July 27 – August 3, 2025
Trade and tariff deadlines will continue to dominate geopolitics this coming week. At the time of this writing, President Trump—who is vacationing in Scotland—has clinched a deal with the European Union, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent meets with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Stockholm to discuss an extension of the freeze on trade tariffs.
The U.S.-EU deal would impose a 15 percent tariff on all EU imports, while the EU commits to buying $750 billion in U.S. energy products and another $600 billion in unspecified investments in the U.S. Not everyone is happy in the EU: France’s Prime Minister François Bayrou blasted the deal, saying, “It is a dark day when an alliance of free peoples, brought together to affirm their common values and to defend their common interests, resigns itself to submission.” We would advise markets to keep a sharp eye on whether the deal holds together in the coming days.
Bessent’s meeting with Vice Premier He is likely to produce both a continued suspension of new trade tariffs and progress toward a possible summit between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
All this comes as August 1st—Trump’s ultimate trade deadline for all countries—looms. South Korea, Canada, Mexico (three of the U.S.’s five largest trading partners), and other nations are racing to cut deals with the U.S. before draconian tariffs are put in place Friday. This includes a 50 percent tariff on all copper imports to the U.S. Japan and the EU—the other two top-five trading partners aside from China—now have tentative deals in place.
Also this week, the United Nations will be holding a two-day conference spearheaded by France and Saudi Arabia on creating a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine. The meeting comes only a few days after France announced it is recognizing a Palestinian state—a move not replicated by the rest of the European Union.
In Asia, markets will be watching what happens in Japan’s parliament—the Diet—after last week’s Upper House elections tossed the ruling Liberal Democratic Party from power. Will Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s coalition try to continue governing as a minority government, and will policy paralysis emerge, potentially impacting the Bank of Japan’s interest rate strategy?
Looking at the global economic radar screen, summer holidays are clearly taking place for most central bankers—very few speeches are scheduled (in fact, none are scheduled by any member of the European Central Bank—we can’t remember the last time we saw a week go by without at least one of them speaking somewhere). But central bank action will dominate markets this week nonetheless, with the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the Reserve Bank of Canada all meeting on interest rates.
The Fed meetings are being particularly closely watched, with all the political fireworks being fired off by the White House toward Fed Chair Jay Powell, demanding he lower rates. Market consensus is that a rate cut is unlikely for now, but more voices are suggesting it may happen in September.
Looking at economic reports this week in the U.S., the big one is the jobs report on Friday, which will be preceded by the JOLTS and ADP reports on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. The U.S. Q2 GDP print is out Wednesday, and June PCE is out Thursday. Also, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for July is out Tuesday. Finally, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Report is out Friday.
In Europe, the European Central Bank will publish its consumer expectations survey on Tuesday. This is followed by GDP reports for Germany, France, Italy, and the broader Eurozone on Wednesday, with inflation prints for those same countries out Thursday. Employment reports will also be released throughout the week.
Moving to Asia, China releases July PMIs on Thursday, along with June industrial production and retail sales. Japan releases July consumer confidence and retail sales.
What will consume markets, of course, is the flood of corporate earnings this week—almost 40 percent of the S&P 500 will report. Most of Europe’s major corporations are also reporting this week.
Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:
Sunday, July 27, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China Industrial Profits (YTD) (June)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Manufacturing Production (May)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Monday, July 28, 2025
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East, Syria.
· The United Nations High-Level International Conference on the Peacefull Settlement of the Question of Palestine and the Implementation of the Two-State Solution will be held through July 29 in New York. The meeting is being co-hosted by France and Saudi Arabia and comes days after France would formally recognize Palestine as a state.
· The Catholic Church holds the Jubilee of Youth through August 3 in Rome. More than 1 million young people are expected to attend.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· President Donald Trump meets with UK Prime Minister Kier Starmer in Aberdeen, Scotland.
· The US House of Representatives are out for the August recess and return September 2. The US Senate is likely to go out of session for the August recess this coming weekend.
· A Colombian court is expected announce verdict against former president Alvaro Uribe. He was charged with bribery of witnesses and procedural fraud dealing with an investigation into his supposed ties to right-wing paramilitary groups.
· Today is Independence Day in Peru.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Brazil Bank Lending (June)/ BCB Focus Market Readout
· Mexico Balance of Trade (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)
· Canada Average Weekly Earnings (May)/ Wholesale Sales (June)
· USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (July)/ Treasury Refunding Financing Est
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Lawmakers from Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party will hold a Diet meeting to review a recent election loss, which may influence the prime minister's fate.
· ASEAN Environmental Officials will hold its 36th annual meeting in Kuala Lumpur through July 31.
· The World Artificial Intelligence Conference is being held through July 29 in Shanghai, China to discuss global AI governance.
· Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos delivers his State of the Nation Address.
· Monsoon season officially begins in India.
· The GIIAS motor show begins in South Tangerang, Indonesia. It is the largest automotive exhibition in Southeast Asia.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Taiwan Consumer Confidence (July)
· Japan BoJ JGB Purchases
· Malaysia PPI (June)
· Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)
· India Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Georgia hosts the Agile Spirit 2025 military drills with NATO through August 6.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Slovenia Retail Sales (June)
· Ireland GDP Growth Rate Q2
· Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (July)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· The AfriCaribbean Trade and Investment Forum, hosted by Afreximbank and the Grenada government, takes place in St George’s, the Caribbean island’s capital city.
· The Communications Regulators’ Association of Southern Africa holds its Consumer Committee meeting in DR Congo.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Ghana Interest Rate Decision
Tuesday, July 29, 2025
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote related to the 2745 sanctions (arms embargo on the Central African Republic). The Security Council is also scheduled to hold a briefing on Maintenance of international peace and security: UN Peace Operations.
· The 2025 Global Conference on Climate and Health will be held from July 31 through in Brasilia, Brazil. This Global Conference is co-organized by the Government of Brazil, the World Health Organization (WHO), the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) and the Alliance for Transformative Action on Climate and Health (ATACH), and will serve as the annual, in-person meeting of ATACH members.
· The Sixth World Conference of Speakers of Parliament begins in Geneva, Switzerland and runs through July 31. The event includes representatives from Ukraine, Russia, Iran and Israel.
· The IMF publishes its report on state of world economy.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· The US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee begins policy meetings on interest rates.
· USA Goods Trade Balance (June)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (June)/ Wholesale Inventories (June)/ Redbook (July/26)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (May)/ House Price Index (May)/ JOLTs Job Openings (June)/ JOLTs Job Quits (June)/ CB Consumer Confidence (July)/ Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (July)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (July/25)
· Chile Interest Rate Decision
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Territory Day in the islands of Wallis and Futuna, celebrating when they became a French Overseas Territory in 1961.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Indonesia Foreign Direct Investment Q2
· Singapore Import Prices (June)/ Export Prices (June)/ PPI (June)
· Sri Lanka Balance of Trade (June)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will meet with Jordan's King Abdullah II in Berlin, Germany.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Spain GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Retail Sales (June)
· Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (June)/ Mortgage Lending & Approvals (June)/ M4 Money Supply (June)/ Net Lending to Individuals (June)
· France Unemployment Benefit Claims (June)/ Jobseekers Total (June)
· Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev will meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara, Turkey.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa M3 Money Supply (June)/ Private Sector Credit (June)
Wednesday, July 30, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee decides on interest rates. A press conference with Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell will be held at 2 p.m.
· The Bank of Canada announces its interest rate decision and releases its Monetary Policy Report. Governor Tiff Macklem holds a press conference in the afternoon.
· Brazil IGP-M Inflation (July)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Net Payrolls (June)
· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (July/25)/ MBA Purchase Index (July/25)/ ADP Employment Change (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ GDP Price Index Q2/ Treasury Refunding Announcement/ GDP Sales Q2/ PCE Prices Q2/ Real Consumer Spending Q2/ Pending Home Sales (June)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (July/25)
· Mexico GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Fiscal Balance (June)
· Chile Unemployment Rate (June)
· Colombia Business Confidence (June)
· Uruguay Unemployment Rate (June)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Bloomberg holds its Sustainable Business Summit in Singapore.
· Today is Independence Day in the Island nation of Vanuatu.
Economic Reports/Events –
· The Bank of Japan begins meetings on interest rates.
· New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (July)
· Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ PPI (June)
· Australia Inflation Rate Q2/ Monthly CPI Indicator (June)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q2/ CPI Q2/ RBA Weighted Median CPI Q2
· China FDI (YTD) (June)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· France GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Household Consumption (June)
· Germany Retail Sales (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2
· Hungary Balance of Trade (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2
· Slovakia Business Confidence (July)/ Consumer Confidence (July)
· Spain Inflation Rate (July)/ Business Confidence (July)
· Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (July)/ Economic Sentiment Index (July)
· Turkey Unemployment Rate (June)/ Economic Confidence Index (July)/ Participation Rate (June)
· Italy GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Sales (May)
· Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Economic Sentiment (July)/ Consumer Confidence Final (July)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (July)/ Industrial Sentiment (July)/ Selling Price Expectations (July)/ Services Sentiment (July)
· Greece PPI (June)
· Ireland Retail Sales (June)
· Russia Unemployment Rate (June)/ Business Confidence (July)/ Real Wage Growth (May)/ Retail Sales (June)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem makes an address for the anniversary of Commander Fuad Shukr's killing.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· The Annual African Finance Association Conference is held in Cape Town, South Africa.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Mozambique Interest Rate Decision
· South Africa Budget Balance (June)
Thursday, July 31, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· New U.S. tariffs on several trade partners, including South Korea and Japan, will come into effect, barring new trade deals.
· NASA's SpaceX Crew-11 launches to the International Space Station (ISS).
Economic Reports/Events –
· Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (June)/ Nominal Budget Balance (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)
· USA Challenger Job Cuts (July)/ Personal Income & Spending (June)/ Employment Cost Index Q2/ Initial Jobless Claims (July/26)/ PCE Price Index (June)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (July/19)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (July)/ Chicago PMI (July)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (July)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/31)/ Fed Balance Sheet (July/30)
· Canada GDP (May)
· Chile Copper Production (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)
· Colombia Unemployment Rate (June)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (June)
· Uruguay Balance of Trade (June)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Japan is tentatively scheduled to hold a post-election extraordinary Diet session to elect new heads of the upper house.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)
· Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decisions and Quarterly Outlook Report
· Japan Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Foreign Bond Investment (July/26)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (July/26)/Consumer Confidence (July)/ Housing Starts (June)/ Construction Orders (June)
· Australia Building Permits (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Import Prices Q2/ Export Prices Q2/ Housing Credit (June)/ Private House Approvals (June)/ Private Sector Credit (June)/ Totality Dwelling Prices (July)
· China NBS Manufacturing/ Non-Manufacturing/ General PMI (July)
· Singapore Bank Lending (June)/ Unemployment Rate Q2/ Business Confidence Q2
· Thailand Industrial Production (June)/ Current Account (June)/ Private Consumption & Investment (June)/ Retail Sales (May)
· Malaysia M3 Money Supply (June)
· Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q2
· Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Retail Sales (June)
· Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI (May)/ PPI (June)/ Unemployment Rate Q1
· India Government Budget Value (June)
· Kazakhstan GDP Growth Rate Q2
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Germany Import Prices (June)/ Unemployed Persons (July)/ Unemployment Change (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (July)/ Bavaria CPI (July)/ Brandenburg CPI (July)/ Hesse CPI (July)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (July)/ Saxony CPI (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)
· Hungary PPI (June)
· Switzerland Retail Sales (June)
· France Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI (June)
· Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (June)/ Tourism Revenues Q2/ Tourist Arrivals (June)/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/25)
· Italy Unemployment Rate (June)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI (June)
· Poland Inflation Rate (July)
· Spain Current Account (May)
· Slovenia Inflation Rate (July)
· Euro Area Unemployment Rate (June)
· Greece Retail Sales (May)/ Unemployment Rate (June)
· Ireland Inflation Rate (June)
· Serbia Balance of Trade (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)
· Ukraine Current Account (June)
· Russia M2 Money Supply (June)/ GDP (June)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q2/ M3 Money Supply (June)/ Private Bank Lending (June)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa PPI (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate
· Egypt M2 Money Supply (June)
· Kenya Inflation Rate (July)
Friday, August 1, 2025
Global
· Panama takes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of August.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· President Trump’s 50 percent tariff on imported copper goes into effect.
· Today is Emancipation Day in Guyana.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (July)/ Industrial Production (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)
· Mexico Business Confidence (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)
· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (June)
· USA Non-Farm Payrolls (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ Average Hourly Earnings (July)/ Participation Rate (July)/ Average Weekly Hours (July)/ Government Payrolls (July)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (July)/ Nonfarm Payrolls Private (July)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (July)/ Construction Spending (June)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (July)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (July)/ Michigan Current Conditions Final (July)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (August/01)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/01)
· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)
· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (July)
· Peru Inflation Rate (July)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence/ Building Permits (June)
· Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (July)/ PPI Q2/ Commodity Prices (July)
· Japan Unemployment Rate (June)/ Jobs/applications ratio (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)
· South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)
· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ Tourist Arrivals (June)
· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)
· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)
· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)
· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Business Confidence (July)
· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)
· China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (July)
· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (July)/ Bank Loan Growth (July/18)/ Deposit Growth (July/18)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/25)
· Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (July)
· Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (July)
· Pakistan Inflation Rate (July)/ Wholesale Prices (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Switzerland's National Day.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (July)
· Romania PPI (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)
· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)
· Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (July)
· Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (July)
· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)
· Spain Tourist Arrivals (June)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)
· Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (June)
· Switzerland procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (July)
· Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Retail Sales (June)/ New Car Registrations (July)
· France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)
· Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)
· Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ CPI Flash (July)
· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Independence Day in Benin.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (July)
· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (July)
Saturday, August 2, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Today is the official start of the compliance period for EU rules on general-purpose AI models like ChatGPT and Google's Gemini.
· Today is Republic Day in North Macedonia.
· Cowes Week, the largest and longest-running international sailing regatta in the world, begins on the Isle of Wight, running until August 8.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Sunday, August 3, 2025
Global
· The OPEC+ monthly meeting (virtual) is held.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos begins a state visit to India.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead
The Fed Holds a Conference on Large Bank Capital Standards, Congress Passes the First-Ever Crypto Reg Bill and Tees Up More Legislation, And Will the SEC and CFTC Merge?
July 21 - 25, 2025
Washington is currently experiencing the hottest July in recorded history, peppered by what seems like almost daily massive thunderstorms. But neither beating sun nor driving rain is slowing down the financial regulatory world in the nation’s capital. A lot is going on.
First, Congress has just passed, and President Trump signed into law, the first-ever major legislative cryptocurrency law, creating new rules for stablecoins. It is a major victory for the crypto industry. Additionally, the House passed on Thursday by a 294-1345 margin much broader crypto legislation, which would create a brand-new market structure for crypto.
This comes as news broke President Trump is preparing to sign an executive order soon allowing the $9 trillion US retirement market to invest in crypto as well as gold and private equity. This would include 401(k) plans as well as pensions.
Congress was busy this past week on a number of other fronts of interest and concern to the markets. We would first note first that the Chairman of the House Select Committee on China, Representative John Moolenaar (R-MI) and the Chair of the Senate Special Committee on Aging, Senator Rick Scott (R-FL) sent letters to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC0 and the head of the Public Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) demanding an urgent briefing on the risks posed to US investors by Chinese companies listed on US stock exchanges. Their letter revives a debate in Congress to force the delisting of Chinese companies (which we would point out have a combined market capitalization of $1.1 trillion). Our view is, barring a major, unseen negative turn in US-China relations, the delisting effort will peter out eventually. But it is a serious pressure point and worth watching.
Meanwhile, Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Paul Atkins made headlines on Thursday when he signaled his support for merging the SEC with the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This is not a new idea – indeed, we remember 30+ years ago a raging debate over merging the two, which did not go well. But these are different times as the Trump Administration is driving massive structural and budgetary changes to the federal government.
Atkins also this past week pushed out the head of the Public Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB), Erica Williams (who had been put there by the Biden Administration). The move had long been expected and is seen as part of a likely consolidation of the PCAOB into the SEC in the near future.
Finally, Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell continued to weather considerable criticism for the $1.5 billion renovation of the Fed’s headquarters. In fact, Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) said Thursday in a post on X that she is “criminally referring” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to the Justice Department to “investigate perjury” regarding the $2.5 billion renovation project. We do not think this will be taken up by Justice, but it shows how ugly the issue has become. But something a relief valve may have emerged on Friday when the Associated Press reported the most expensive renovations were actually initially pushed for by three Trump appointees on the Commission of Fine Arts which advises the federal government on architecture.
Looking at the week ahead, the Senate Agriculture Committee announced they will (finally) vote on the confirmation of CFTC Chair-nominee Brian Quintenz on Monday. Quintenz then has then get a full confirmation vote by the full Senate. Looking at the Senate calendar – which includes the Senate being out of session for all of August – this suggests to us Quintenz probably will not get that final confirmation vote until late September or sometime in October. The Senate wheels move slowly, and the most precious commodity in the world may actually be finding time on the Senate floor schedule to get anything done.
And the big event of the week will be at the Federal Reserve, which is holding its “Integrated Review of the Capital Framework for Large Banks Conference.” Fed Chair Powell and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will both speak. The conference is a prelude to forthcoming major changes to bank capital standards, something big banks have been pushing hard for in recent years.
Below are the meetings and events happening this week in Washington of note:
U.S. Congressional Hearings
U.S. Senate
· Tuesday, July 22, 9:45 a.m. – The Senate Finance Committee holds a markup to vote on the nominations of Joseph Barloon to be a deputy U.S. Trade Representative in the Geneva Office, and Brian Morrissey Jr., to be general counsel for the Treasury Department.
· Tuesday, July 22, 10:15 a.m. – The Senate Finance Committee holds a hearing on the nominations of Jonathan McKernan to be a Treasury undersecretary for Domestic Finance.
· Wednesday, July 23, 3:00 p.m. – The Senate Agriculture Committee will vote on the confirmation of CFTC Chair nominee Brian Quintenz as well as several nominees for the Department of Agriculture.
House of Representatives
· Tuesday, July 22, 10:00 a.m. and Wednesday, July 23, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing to markup various measures (17 measures in total).
Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events
Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks
· Tuesday, July 22, 8:30 a.m. – The Federal Reserve Board of Governors holds it "Integrated Review of the Capital Framework for Large Banks Conference." Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell delivers opening remarks and at 1:00 p.m. Federal Reserve Board Vice Chairman Michelle Bowman delivers remarks.
U.S. Treasury Department
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Department of Commerce
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Department of Housing and Urban Development
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Securities and Exchange Commission
· Tuesday, July 22, 10:00 a.m. – Securities and Exchange Commission holds a meeting of the Small Business Capital Formation Advisory Committee to discuss matters relating to rules and regulations affecting small and emerging businesses and their investors under the federal securities laws.
· Thursday, July 24, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.
Commodities Futures Trading Commission
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
FINRA
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
National Credit Union Administration
· Thursday, July 24, 10:00 a.m. – The National Credit Union Administration Board will hold a meeting. The agenda includes A briefing on artificial intelligence; A briefing from the NCUA Ombudsman; and a briefing on the Central Liquidity Facility.
Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division
· Thursday, July 22, 2:00 p.m. – The Justice Department's Antitrust Division; the Federal Trade Commission; the Commerce Department; and the Health and Human Services Department holds a virtual event, beginning at 2 p.m., on "Formulary and Benefit Practices and Regulatory Abuse Impacting Drug Competition."
Farm Credit Administration
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
International Monetary Fund & World Bank
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
North American Securities Administrators Association
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Small Business Administration
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Trade Associations & Think Tank Events
Trade Associations
· Tuesday, July 22, 5:00 p.m. – The American Bar Association holds its 2025 Antitrust Regional Reception.
Think Tanks and Other Events
· Monday, July 21, 8:30 a.m. – The American Enterprise Institute holds a panel discussion entitled "International Tax Cooperation and Competition: A Reset."
· Tuesday, July 22, 9:15 a.m. – The Brookings Institution's Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy, Purdue University's Business School, the Brandeis International Business School's Institute of Global Finance, the University of Texas at Austin Public Affairs School, and the University of Chicago Public Policy School's Center for Municipal Finance hold the 14th annual Municipal Finance Conference in Washington, D.C.
· Tuesday, July 22, 12:00 p.m. – The Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 12 p.m., on "Litigation Update: FTC v. Meta."
· Tuesday – Thursday, July 22 – 25 – The Center for Global Development holds its annual Bank Conference on Development Economics 2025, with the theme "Development in the Age of Populism."
· Wednesday, July 23, 8:00 a.m. – Axios holds a discussion on the impact of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" as well as what's next for the remainder of the year and heading into the 2026 midterm elections. Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC), a member of the Senate Banking Committee, will speak.
· Wednesday, July 23, 11:00 a.m. – The R Street Institute holds a virtual panel discussion entitled “Reconciliation Lookback: Farm Subsidy Policy and the Future of the Farm Bill.” This will include a heavy focus on the impact on crop insurance and federal farm policy overall.
· Wednesday, July 23, 1:00 p.m. – The Brookings Institution holds a virtual event entitled “Accelerating local climate investment amid federal uncertainty.”
· Thursday, July 24, 11:30 a.m. – The Brookings Institution holds a rescheduled event entitled “The House Financial Services Committee Agenda: A Conversation with Representative Maxine Waters (D-CA).
· Thursday, July 24, 2:00 p.m. – The Cato Institute holds a forum on "Removing Barriers to Capital Formation."
· Thursday, July 24, 3:00 p.m. – The Urban Institute holds a discussion on "The Past, Present, and Future of Credit Scores in Housing Finance."
Recommended Reading
How Shadow Banking Reshapes the Optimal Mix of Regulation Liberty Street Economics/Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Decisions that are privately optimal often impose externalities on other agents, giving rise to regulations aimed at implementing socially optimal outcomes. In the banking industry, regulations are particularly heavy, plausibly reflecting a view by regulators that the relevant externalities could culminate in financial crises and destabilize the broader economy. Over time, the toolkit for regulating banks and bank-like institutions has expanded, as has banks’ restructuring of activities into shadow banking to lessen the regulatory burden. This post, based on our recent Staff Report, explores the optimal mix of prudential tools for bank regulators in a wide range of environments.
The Dodd-Frank Act at 15: Has It Worked? Paul Kupiec/American Enterprise Institute
In testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on July 15, AEI Scholar Pau Kupiec argued that “Judging the Dodd-Frank Act by its own preamble, the Act is a failure. Notwithstanding the many complex and intrusive provisions of the Act, the financial system experienced a systemic banking crisis in March 2023. Widespread bank runs were averted when the federal government was forced to take measures to bailout the banking system.” Kupiec, who is the former Director of Research at the FDIC, goes on to say that “…the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) has little ability to detect and mitigate actual risk created by so-called systemically important financial institutions or unregulated markets.”
Spotting Financial Crisis’s Early MacroXX Substack
Economists have long debated whether financial crises can be foreseen. While this question is not new, a notable study from March 2021 provides clear evidence that crises can often be predicted—typically triggered by rapid credit growth alongside sharp increases in asset prices. Harvard researchers Robin Greenwood, Samuel Hanson, Andrei Shleifer, and Jakob Sørensen showed that financial crises aren’t just freak accidents—they often build up in plain sight. According to this study, financial crises can be forecasted by examining past credit growth in businesses and households using relatively simple models.
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Recommended Weekend Reads
Is the US Going to be Hit With a New China Shock?, Looking at Russia’s Next Generation of Leaders, How the Global Economy Has Evaded Disaster, and Data Centers are Eating Capex
July 18 - 20, 2025
Below are a number of reports and articles we read this past week that we found particularly interesting. Hopefully, you will find them of interest and useful as well. Have a great weekend.
China
We Warned About the First China Shock. The Next One Will be Worse David Autor/Gordon Hansen, New York Times
Autor and Handson warn the US faces a second “China Shock” that tariffs are ill-equipped to counter. According to an Australian analysis, btw 2003 and 2007, the US led China in 60 of 64 cutting-edge sectors; by 2023, China led the US in 57 of the 64. The world’s largest and most innovative producers of EVs (BYD), EV batteries (CATL), drones (DJI) and solar wafers (LONGi) are all Chinese start-ups, none more than 30 years old. They attained commanding technological and price leadership not because President Xi Jinping decreed it, but because they emerged triumphant from the economic Darwinism that is Chinese industrial policy. The rest of the world is ill-prepared to compete with these apex predators. When U.S. policymakers deride China’s industrial policy, they are imagining something akin to the lumbering takeoff of Airbus or the lights going out on Solyndra. They should instead be gazing up at the nimble swarms of DJI drones buzzing over Ukraine.
Why China’s Should Revalue the Renminbi – And Why It Can’t Easily Do So Michael Pettis/Carnegie China
In a recent piece for the Financial Times, Gerard Lyons, a British economist who sits on the board of the Bank of China (UK), argued that China’s currency, the renminbi, is undervalued, and that by encouraging it to appreciate, China would help raise its international profile. While many analysts have made similar arguments, it is not at all clear that a rising renminbi would indeed increase its international role. There are nonetheless very good economic reasons for China to revalue its currency, along with reasons why a serious revaluation is likely to be difficult. With its persistent excess production and under-consumption, a revalued renminbi would help correct some of the deep structural distortions in the Chinese economy by shifting the distribution of total domestic income from businesses to households.
Is China’s Military Ready for War? M. Taylor Fravel/Foreign Affairs
A new wave of purges has engulfed the senior leadership of China’s military, the People’s Liberation Army. Since the 20th National Party Congress in October 2022, more than 20 senior PLA officers from all four services—the army, navy, air force, and rocket force—have disappeared from public view or been removed from their posts. The absences of other generals have also been reported, which could foreshadow additional purges. The fact that these high-profile purges are occurring now is not lost on outside observers. In 2027, the PLA will celebrate the 100th anniversary of its founding. It is also the year by which Xi expects China’s armed forces to have made significant strides in their modernization. Finally, the year is noteworthy because, according to former CIA Director Bill Burns, Xi has instructed the PLA to be “ready by 2027 to conduct a successful invasion” of Taiwan. Xi’s instructions do not indicate that China will in fact invade Taiwan that year, but, as Burns put it, they serve as “a reminder of the seriousness of his focus and his ambition.” With such ambitious goals set for the PLA, the question then arises as to how this new wave of purges could affect the PLA’s readiness.
China’s Stealth Trade Surplus Brad Setser/Council on Foreign Relations
China’s trade surplus has soared in the last five years. That basic statement maps to a host of well-known and easily verified realities. China now runs, for example, a large trade surplus in autos, when it ran a deficit as recently as five years ago. Net vehicle exports will top 6 million vehicles this year, net passenger car exports will easily top 5 million cars. It dominates renewables manufacturing (so much so that President Trump decided to essentially give up and take the U.S. back to the age of fossil fuels). China's export volume growth has consistently exceeded global trade growth. Moreover, it maps to standard economic theory: a large real estate crisis typically leads countries to rely more on exports to make up for the fall in internal demand (ask the IMF…) yet that surplus often seems to disappear when it comes to the statistics on global imbalances.
Russia
The Next Generation: Russia’s Future Leaders The Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center
President Vladimir Putin is initiating a generational shift in Russia’s leadership. According to Kremlin insiders, during his current presidential term, Putin plans to retire some of his most influential and longest-serving allies, many of whom are well into their seventies. Putin himself, at age seventy-two, has no intention of stepping down. He sees himself as entirely irreplaceable. But he is gradually replacing other key figures with members of a younger generation, as the older officials age, fall ill, and become less effective. This transition began last year. It is hardly surprising that a significant portion of this new generation coming to power consists of the children of current top officials and Putin’s closest friends—or even his own relatives. In this sense, Russia increasingly resembles a feudal state, in which power is inherited at all levels. The children of the bureaucratic aristocracy are all, in one way or another, striving for government careers and positions of influence. This report examines the rising generation of the Russian elite and what this shift means for Russia’s future. It is based on extensive interviews with dozens of current and former Russian officials who spoke on condition of anonymity in order to discuss the inner workings of the Kremlin power elite without fear of reprisals.
China may not want Russia to lose – or to win – in Ukraine Asia Times
The South China Morning Post (SCMP) cited unnamed sources to report that Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his EU counterpart that China doesn’t want Russia to lose in Ukraine because the US’s whole focus might then shift to China. His alleged remarks were spun by the mainstream media as an admission that China isn’t as neutral as it claims, just as they and their alternative media rivals suspected. Both now believe that China will help Russia achieve its maximum goals, but that’s likely not the case.
Geoeconomics
War, geopolitics, energy crisis: how the economy evades every disaster The Economist
Although today’s dangers are not in the same league as World War II, they are significant. Pundits talk of a “polycrisis” running from the covid-19 pandemic, land war in Europe and the worst energy shock since the 1970s to stubborn inflation, banking scares, a Chinese property bust and trade war. One measure of global risk is 30% higher than its long-term average (see chart 1). Consumer-confidence surveys suggest that households are unusually pessimistic about the state of the economy, both in America and elsewhere (see chart 2). Geopolitical consultants are raking it in, as Wall Street banks fork out on analysts to pontificate about developments in the Donbas or a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The world economy appears impressively and increasingly shock-absorbent. Why?
What Happens When Big Tech Goes Nuclear? Jayita Sarkar/Time Magazine & The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Silicon Valley firms are advocating for the U.S. to embark on a nuclear energy renaissance... The ethos of Big Tech to “move fast and break things” could spur unprecedented innovation in nuclear energy, especially through the construction of small modular reactors, microreactors, and even fusion. But, just like Silicon Valley itself, which has historically flourished through the invisible hand of the state, the nuclear energy industry might also need increased guidance from the government in order to be safe, secure, and reliable.
The global persistence of work from home PNAS
Abstract: Work from home (WFH) surged worldwide during the COVID-19 pandemic, then partially receded as the pandemic subsided. Using our Global Survey of Working Arrangements covering dozens of countries, we find that average WFH rates among college-educated employees stabilized after 2022. The average number of WFH days per week is steady at roughly 1 d per week globally from 2023 through early 2025. Cross-country variation persists: WFH is about twice as common in advanced English-speaking economies as in much of Asia. These results show how the pandemic-driven shift to remote work has persisted and reached a new equilibrium, with implications for urban
Honey, AI Capex is Eating the Economy Paul Kedorsky’s Applied Complexity
Looking at the boom in building data centers in the US (and elsewhere around the world), Kedorsky looks at how the spending compares. Compare this to prior capex frenzies, like railroads or telecom. Peak railroad spending came in the 19th century, and peak telecom spending was around the 5G/fiber frenzy. It's not clear whether we're at peak yet or not, but ... we're up there. Capital expenditures on AI data centers are likely around 20% of the peak spending on railroads, as a percentage of GDP, and it is still rising quickly. And we've already passed the decades-ago peak in telecom spending during the dot-com bubble.
The Future of Election Polling
Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections Institute of National Security, Peabody College, Vanderbilt University
In a new study conducted at Vanderbilt University, the prediction markets – and Polymarkets in particular - outperformed traditional national and state-level polling during the 2024 election. According to Professor Brett Goldstein, who oversaw the study, “Our research reveals a fundamental shift in how we might assess and forecast elections.”
U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead
The Fed Votes to Move Ease Rating Requirements for “Well Managed” Banks, Just as the Renovation and Bee Controversy Heats Up, Gould Gets Confirmed as Comptroller, and Two Major Crypto Bills Make Major Strides
July 14 - 18, 2025
It may be the middle of summer in Washington, but it remains a busy time here in the nation’s capital for Congress and regulators.
On Tuesday, the House of Representatives is poised to pass two major pieces of legislation and send one of them to President Trump’s desk to be signed into law. The first bill will regulate so-called Stable Coins. President Trump has indicated he will sign the legislation. The second bill would create a crypto market structure bill and will be sent to the Senate.
The House Financial Services Committee is holding more hearings this coming week, looking at the impact of Dodd-Frank, which was passed into law 15 years ago. Talking to Congressional staff, it is all part of a prelude to likely new deregulatory legislation in the coming months. It also provides some cover to the SEC and CFTC to look at deregulatory moves, as well.
Meanwhile, the Senate confirmed Jonathan Gould as Comptroller of the Currency last week and is getting ready for a confirmation hearing for Travis Hill as the next Chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC).
As all this was happening, the Federal Reserve voted last week to move forward with a proposed regulation adjusting the supervisory rating framework, something that is likely to make it easier for banks to merge. Currently, any bank that loses its “well-managed” status can be limited in its ability to undertake certain activities, such as mergers and acquisitions, as well as in investing in other companies involved in certain financial activities.
But that was the good news out of the Fed for the week. Fed Chair Jay Powell continues to be under growing fire for an ongoing renovation of the Federal Reserve headquarters. More Republican members of Congress and supporters of President Trump are beginning to argue the supposed mismanagement of the project, which reportedly includes lavish remodeling of the headquarters and the building of beehives on the Fed grounds, as a “cause” for which President Trump can fire Powell. We are dubious it will get to that point and believe it is all part of a larger effort to pressure Powell to move on lowering interest rates at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
Below are the meetings and events happening this week in Washington of note:
U.S. Congressional Hearings
U.S. Senate
· Tuesday, July 15, 3:00 p.m. – The Senate Agriculture Committee holds a hearing entitled “Stakeholder Perspectives on Federal Oversight of Digital Commodities.’
House of Representatives
· Tuesday, July 15, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing entitled “Dodd-Frank Turns 15: Lessons Learned and the Road Ahead” You can read the Committee Staff Background Memo HERE.
· Wednesday, July 16, 9:00 a.m. – The House Ways and Means Oversight Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Making America the Crypto Capital of the World: Ensuring Digital Asset Policy Built for the 21st Century."
· Wednesday, July 16, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions holds a hearing entitled “U.S. Policy on Investment Security.”
· Wednesday, July 16, 2:00 p.m. – The House Agriculture General Farm Commodities. Risk Management, and Credit Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Financing Farm Operations: The Importance of Credit and Risk Management.
· Wednesday, July 16, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Housing and Insurance Subcommittee holds a hearing on "HOME 2.: Modern Solutions to the Housing Shortage."
Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events
Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks
· Tuesday, July 15 - The Federal Reserve holds its Unleashing a Financially Inclusive Future Conference in Washington, D.C.
· Tuesday, July 15, 9:15 a.m. – Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will give remarks at the Federal Reserve Board's Second Annual Financial Inclusion Conference (via pre-recorded video).
· Tuesday, July 15, 12:45 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr will give a speech entitled “expanding financial inclusion” at the Federal Reserve Board's Second Annual Financial Inclusion Conference, Washington, D.C.
· Wednesday, July 16, 9:15 a.m. – Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on "Community Development" before the Cuyahoga County Community College Corporate College 20th Anniversary Celebration Business Breakfast.
· Wednesday, July 16, 10:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr will give a speech on financial regulation at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.
· Wednesday, July 16, 6:30 p.m. – New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote before the New York Association for Business Economics (NYABE) Distinguished Speaker Series.
· Thursday, July 17, 10:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler will give a speech entitled “A view of the Housing Market and U.S. Economic Outlook” at the Housing Partnership Network Symposium in Washington, D.C.
· Thursday, July 17, 1:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech at the National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute (virtually).
· Thursday, July 17, 6;30 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Money Marketeers Event in New York.
U.S. Treasury Department
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Department of Commerce
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Department of Housing and Urban Development
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Securities and Exchange Commission
· Thursday, July 17, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.
Commodities Futures Trading Commission
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
· Tuesday, July 15, 10:00 a.m. – The FDIC Board will meet in open session. The agenda includes a proposed amendment to FDIC Guidelines for Appeals of Material Supervisory Determinations; Notice of Proposed Rulemaking regarding Adjusting and Indexing Part 363 and Certain Other FDIC Regulatory Thresholds; Request for Information regarding Industrial Banks and Industrial Loan Companies and Their Parent Companies. Additionally, the Board will vote on a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking regarding Community Reinvestment Act Regulations, a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking regarding Establishment and Relocation of Branches and Offices, a Notice regarding Parent Companies of Industrial Banks and Industrial Loan Companies; Withdrawal of Proposed Rule, and a Notice regarding Regulatory Publication and Review Under the Economic Growth and Regulatory Paperwork Reduction Act of 1996.
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
FINRA
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
National Credit Union Administration
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Farm Credit Administration
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
International Monetary Fund & World Bank
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
North American Securities Administrators Association
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Small Business Administration
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Trade Associations & Think Tank Events
Trade Associations
· Thursday, July 17 – The American Bankers Association holds its Women Lead Symposium (virtual).
Think Tanks and Other Events
· Wednesday, July 16, Noon – The Exchequer Club of Washington, D.C. will host Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) as their luncheon speaker.
· Thursday, July 17, 11:30 a.m. – The Brookings Institution holds a discussion on "The House Financial Services Committee Agenda” with House Financial Services Committee’s Ranking Democrat, Representative Maxine Waters (D-CA).
Recommended Reading
AI’s role in credit is growing, are things moving too fast? Federal Reserve Bank of Boston The Future of Finance Podcast
People in the credit business are starting to see just how much AI can do for them. It can improve profits and lower defaults. It can predict demand for new services. It can see past credit scores and comprehensively assess lending risks. That’s why AI’s role in credit is only going to get bigger going forward. Some people are very excited about that. And some are very worried. AI will lie unless you tell it not to. It will collude on pricing with other AI. Experts say those are a couple reasons why we need to proceed with caution and better understand potential hazards. For additional background on this subject, read an outline of the keynote speech at the 68th Economic Conference by UC-Berkeley professor Adair Morse, “AI Innovation for Credit: Frontiers of Benefits & Red Flags.” Watch a recording of the speech.
Reporting FinCEN’s Suspicious Activity, Again Cato Institute
The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) has released its 2024 “Year in Review” report, and things are not looking good. Once again, the agency has highlighted lackluster statistics in an attempt to justify financial surveillance in the United States. Let’s start at the top and work our way down. Under the Bank Secrecy Act, banks and other financial institutions are required by law to report customers under certain circumstances. According to FinCEN, more than 27.5 million reports were filed in 2024 (Table 1). That’s roughly 75 thousand reports a day.
Banking Analytics: The Growing Connection between Bank and Nonbank Sectors Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
In the first quarter of 2025, U.S. banks held $1.14 trillion in loans outstanding to the nonbank financial sector. This sector consists of nondepository financial institutions (NDFIs), which engage in credit intermediation, asset management, market-making and other financial services in the economy. This interconnectedness between banks and nonbanks adds an extra layer of intermediation, as banks lend to mortgage companies, insurance companies, investment funds (such as mutual funds, money market funds, hedge funds and private capital funds), pension funds, broker-dealers, securitization vehicles and other financial entities, which then lend directly to end users in the economy.
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The Global Week Ahead
President Trump to Make “Major Statement” on Ukraine, Japan Holds Major Elections, German Chancellor Merz Travels to London To Sign the UK-Germany Strategic Partnership Treaty, and the G20 Finance Ministers Meet in South Africa
July 13 - 20, 2025
It will be another hectic week on the geopolitical stage as President Trump has promised to make a “major statement” on Ukraine on Monday. The announcement, which is expected to be a substantial commitment of new military aid to Ukraine, comes as the President meets with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Washington. If Trump does, in fact, announce a sizeable commitment of weapons to Kyiv, it will be a major policy shift for the President and suggest a significant new turn in the war, not to mention Trump’s growing irritation with Russian President Vladimir Putin for refusing to engage in peace negotiations.
All this comes as President Trump continues to press forward with aggressive tariff threats, announcing on Friday that he is putting new tariffs on the European Union, Mexico, and Canada. Both Mexico and Canada are going to be hit with new 30 percent tariffs for fentanyl smuggling into the US, according to a letter Trump posted on Truth Social, his media platform. The EU will also face new 30 percent tariffs, according to Trump’s letter, for failing to deal in good faith with the US in ongoing trade negotiations.
Also, this week, markets will be watching Japan’s Upper House elections to understand the further stability of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishida’s ruling government and what sort of flexibility the Bank of Japan has on raising interest rates. Japan’s opposition parties are advocating for tax cuts and looser monetary policy, and if they gain substantially in Sunday’s elections, the central bank will feel significant pressure not to raise rates.
Trump will host Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos next Sunday for trade talks while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent travels to Japan to attend the World Expo in Osaka. While no formal bilateral meetings between Bessent and Japanese negotiators have been announced, it is expected that he will sit down with them while there to try and unlock stalled trade talks.
In Europe this week, German Chancellor Fredrich Merz makes his first visit to London since being elected in May. While there, he will sign a new UK-Germany Strategic Partnership Treaty designed to significantly ramp up mutual defense and economic cooperation, all part of greater Europe’s effort rapidly build up military capabilities in the face of Russia’s ongoing aggression in Ukraine and Russian President Putin’s continuous demands for Eastern European countries to leave NATO.
Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, G20 finance and central bank governors meet in South Africa. No significant announcements or outcomes are expected from those meetings at this time.
In terms of major economic reports this week, the highly anticipated US June CPI report is out on Tuesday, telling markets if there is any new inflationary movement as a result of the Trump tariffs. The PPI report will be out on Wednesday, and the preliminary University of Michigan consumer survey results for July will be released on Friday. Also out this week are the Fed’s Beige Book on Wednesday, along with industrial production numbers. And the June retail sales come out on Thursday.
While we normally do not cover earnings, we note that many of the largest US banks will be releasing earnings this week (JP Morgan, Bank of New York Mellon, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, BlackRock, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs). Markets will be looking to see how strong their earnings are as another indicator of overall US economic strength.
Turning to Asia, China’s Q2 GDP and June retail activity data are out on Tuesday. Japan releases the Bank of Japan’s Opinion Survey on the General Public's Views and Behavior for June on Monday, the June customs trade data on Thursday, and the CPI figures on Friday.
In Europe this week, the UK will release CPI data on Wednesday and labor market reports on Thursday.
Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:
Sunday, July 13, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Today is the first anniversary of President Trump being shot at a rally in Pennsylvania.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese continues a six-day visit to China (which began on Saturday). Albanese has brought a large delegation of Australian businessmen in the hope of signing a number of trade deals.
· Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar travels to China for the first time in five years for meetings with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Jainshankar will then travel on to Tianjin to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s Council of Foreign Ministers July 14-15. The Chinese and Indian Foreign Ministers are expected to discuss Indian-Pakistan tensions, rare earth supplies to India, the Dalai Lama’s succession, and the resumption of direct flights between the two countries.
· Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visits Pyongyang, South Korea.
· Australia will host the Exercise Talisman Sabre 2025 military drills with 18 other participating nations, including the United States and Japan, through August 4.
· Japan holds the Chinreisha Festival (Spirit-Pacifying Shrine) at the Yasukuni Shrine dedicated to all of those who died in wars or incidents since 1853 and who cannot be enshrined in the Main sanctuary, in other words, enemies of Imperial Japan.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· France celebrates Bastille Day.
· Today is Sovereignty Day in Montenegro, a national holiday.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Monday, July 14, 2025
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote related to the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) and the UN Mission to Support the Hudaydah Agreement (UNMHA). Also, in the morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the
United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP).
· The UN’s High-level Political Forum on Sustainable Development (HLPF) will open its session in the General Assembly Hall at the UN Headquarters in New York. The Forum will continue until 23 July.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will be in Washington through July 15 for meetings with President Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. President Trump, in an interview last week, said he would “have a major statement to make on Russia” today. It is believed he will formally announce new military aid programs for Ukraine.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (May)/ BCB Focus Market Readout
· Canada Wholesale Sales (May)
· Argentina Inflation Rate (June)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· The Chinese-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s (SCO) Council of Foreign Ministers meets in Tianjin through July 15. They are expected to discuss regional trade and security matters. There are nine members of the SCO: the Republic of India, the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Republic of Kazakhstan, the People's Republic of China, the Kyrgyz Republic, the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, the Russian Federation, the Republic of Tajikistan, and the Republic of Uzbekistan.
· The China-EU Sixth High-Level Environment and Climate Dialogue begins in Beijing.
Economic Reports/Events –
· New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (June)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (June)
· Japan Machinery Orders (May)/ Capacity Utilization (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Tertiary Industry Index (May)
· Singapore GDP Growth Rate Q2
· China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ New Yuan Loans (June)/ M2 Money Supply (June)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (June)/ Total Social Financing (June)
· Malaysia Retail Sales (May)
· India WPI Food/ Fuel/ Inflation/ Manufacturing Index (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (June)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Brussels. EU trade ministers are expected to discuss the state of trade negotiations with the US, EU-China trade relations, and other major issues.
· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels. The agenda includes an overview of the current marketplace and an EU-wide initiative to diversify protein sources for food and feed.
· The first-ever EU-Central America Association Council meets in Brussels. The meeting brings together leaders from the EU and six Central American countries - Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama.
· France celebrates Bastille Day. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto is the guest of honor, per an invitation from French President Emmanuel Macron.
Economic Reports/Events –
· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in an exchange of views at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.
· Hungary Construction Output (May)
· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (June)
· Romania Current Account (May)
· Poland Balance of Trade (May)/ Current Account (May)
· Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech
· Turkey Auto Production & Sales (June)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel M1 Money Supply (June)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Ghana PPI (June)
Tuesday, July 15, 2025
Global
· OPEC releases its monthly report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· President Trump will speak at the Pennsylvania Energy and Innovation Summit in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
· The Federal Reserve holds its Unleashing a Financially Inclusive Future Conference in Washington, D.C.
· The Senate Foreign Relations Committee will hold a confirmation hearing for former National Security Advisor Mike Walz to serve as US Ambassador to the United Nations.
· The Aspen Security Forum begins in Aspen, Colorado.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will give remarks at the Federal Reserve Board's Second Annual Financial Inclusion Conference (via pre-recorded video).
· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr will give a speech entitled “Expanding Financial Inclusion” at the Federal Reserve Board's Second Annual Financial Inclusion Conference, Washington, D.C.
· Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan gives opening remarks before an event of the World Affairs Council of San Antonio.
· Canada Housing Starts (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ CPI Median (June)/ Manufacturing Sales (May)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (May)
· USA Inflation Rate (June)/ CPI (June)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (July)/ Redbook (July/12)/ Fed Bowman Speech/ NOPA Crush Report/API Crude Oil Stock Change (July/11)
· Colombia Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)
· Paraguay Consumer Confidence (June)
· Peru GDP Growth Rate (May)/ Unemployment Rate (June)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index & Change (July)
· China House Price Index (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (June)/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q2/ Unemployment Rate (June)
· Kazakhstan Industrial Production (June)/ GDP (June)
· India Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)
· New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (July/15)
· Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Services PMI (June)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas will chair the meeting of EU Foreign Ministers. The primary agenda items will be Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and will include a video discussion with Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Minister Andrii Sybiha. The ministers will also discuss the situation in Georgia, the Middle East (Gaza, Israel, and Iran), and the New Pact for the Mediterranean.
· UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves gives annual Mansion House speech in London.
Economic Reports/Events –
· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives an introductory statement at Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.
· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the Annual Financial and Professional Services Dinner at Mansion House in London.
· Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (June)/ BoE Gov Bailey Speech
· Romania Industrial Production (May)
· Hungary Industrial Production (May)
· Slovakia Inflation Rate (June)
· Spain Inflation Rate (June)
· Poland Inflation Rate (June)
· Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (July)/ Industrial Production (May)/ ECB Buch Speech
· Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (July)/ ZEW Current Conditions (July)
· Serbia Building Permits (May)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Inflation Rate (June)
· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (June)/ Wholesale Prices (June)
· Oman Inflation Rate (June)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Gold Production (May)/ Mining Production (May)
· Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)/ M3 Money Supply (June)
· Nigeria Food Inflation (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1
Wednesday, July 16, 2025
Global
· UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres is convening an informal meeting on Cyprus at UN Headquarters.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The inauguration of Jennifer Geerlings-Simons as the new President of Suriname is held in Paramiribo.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr will give a speech on financial regulation at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.
· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives a keynote before the New York Association for Business Economics (NYABE) Distinguished Speaker Series.
· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on "Community Development" before the Cuyahoga County Community College Corporate College 20th Anniversary Celebration Business Breakfast.
· The Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book/ USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (July/11)/ MBA Purchase Index (July/11)/ PPI (June)/Capacity Utilization (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)/ EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (July/11)
· Colombia Consumer Confidence (June)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· The International Supply Chain Expo in Beijing begins and runs through Saturday. Nvidia will take part for the first time, according to state media reports.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea Imports/ Export Prices (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)
· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (July)
· Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit Facility Rate (July)/ Lending Facility Rate (July)
· Philippines Cash Remittances (May)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The European Commission will present a sweeping new EU budget reform package. This swill include proposals for the 2028-2035 EU multiannual financial framework that will include closer alignment on strategic priorities such as rearmament, industrial competition, and tech policy.
· There will be informal meetings of EU Research Ministers and EU Ministers for Internal Markets and Industry in Brussels through July 18.
· German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil and French counterpart Eric Lombard meet and hold a press conference in Berlin, Germany.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Great Britain Inflation Rate (June)/ Retail Price Index (June)
· Hungary Gross Wage (May)
· Italy Inflation Rate (June)/ Balance of Trade (May)
· Euro Area Balance of Trade (May)
· Ireland Residential Property Prices (May)
· Poland Core Inflation Rate (June)
· Belarus Industrial Production (June)
· Ukraine Balance of Trade (May)
· Russia PPI (June)
· Turkey Budget Balance (June)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q1
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Zambia will hold an International Investment Conference in Lusaka through July 18.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Retail Sales (May)
Thursday, July 17, 2025
Global
· G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors will begin two days of meetings in Zimbali, South Africa through July 18.
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the 1701 report (ending hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah).
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler will give a speech entitled “A view of the Housing Market and U.S. Economic Outlook” at the Housing Partnership Network Symposium in Washington, D.C.
· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech at the National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute (virtually).
· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Money Marketeers Event in New York.
· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (July)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (May)
· USA Initial Jobless Claims (July/12)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (July)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (July/05)/ Import Prices (June)/ Export Prices (June)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (July)/ Retail Sales (June)/ / NAHB Housing Market Index (July)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (July/11)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/17)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (May)/ Foreign Bond Investment (May)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (May)/ Fed Balance Sheet (July/16)
· Argentina Balance of Trade (June)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Constitution Day in South Korea, which is not a national holiday anymore as of 2008.
Economic Reports/Events –
· New Zealand Food Inflation (June)
· Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Foreign Bond Investment (July/12)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (July/12)
· Singapore Non-Oil Exports (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)
· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (July)/ Employment Change (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Participation Rate (June)
· Indonesia Loan Growth (June)
· Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (June)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· German Chancellor Friedrich Merz travels to London for his first official meeting since taking office in May. He will meet with Prime Minister Keir Starmer and will also sign the UK–Germany Strategic Partnership Treaty that will include significant mutual defense and economic cooperation.
Economic Reports/Events –
· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' meeting in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.
· Switzerland Balance of Trade (June)
· Great Britain Unemployment Rate (May)/ Employment Change (May)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (June)/ Claimant Count Change (June)
· Slovakia Inflation Rate (June)
· Euro Area CPI Final (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)
· Ireland Balance of Trade (May)
· Serbia Current Account (May)
· Belarus GDP (June)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Inflation Expectations (July)
· Jordan Industrial Production (May)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Building Permits (May)
Friday, July 18, 2025
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on Colombia.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Constitution Day in Uruguay, a national holiday.
Economic Reports/Events –
· USA Housing Starts (June)/ Building Permits (June)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (July)/ Michigan Current Conditions (July)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (July)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (July/18)
· Colombia ISE Economic Activity (May)
· Argentina Economic Activity (May)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Japan Inflation Rate (June)/ BoJ JGB Purchases
· New Zealand Credit Card Spending (June)
· Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2
· India Bank Loan Growth (July/04)/ Deposit Growth (July/04)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/11)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· German Chancellor Friedrich Merz meets Romanian President Nicuşor Dan in Berlin, Germany.
· EU Immigration Ministers will gather in Berlin to discuss asylum rules.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Germany PPI (June)
· Euro Area Current Account (May)/ Construction Output (May)
· Italy Construction Output (May)/ Current Account (May)
· Spain Balance of Trade (May)
· Turkey Business Confidence Q3/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/11)
· Slovakia Current Account (May)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Angola Interest Rate Decision
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Saturday, July 19, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent travels to Japan to attend the World Expo in Osaka. It is unclear at this point whether Bessent will hold bilateral meetings on trade with Japanese officials while there.
· Today is Liberation Day in Nicaragua, a national holiday celebrating the beginning of the hostilities pushing the Somoza family from power.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Japan holds its upper house of parliament elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Sunday, July 20, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos travels to Washington for meetings with President Trump through July 22.
· Today is Independence Day in Colombia, a national holiday.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Japan holds its upper house of parliament elections. 124 of the 248 members are up for election in the National Diet where they serve six-year terms.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (July)
· Japan Upper House Election
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Recommended Weekend Reads
Looking at the Effects of Mexico’s Judicial Reform on FDI and USMCA, The Strait of Malacca Emerges as China’s Achilles Heel, Looking at Africa’s Financial Flows, and the Growth of Export Controls as a Strategic Weapon
July 11 - 13, 2025
Below are the reports and studies we found of particular interest this past week. We wanted to share them with you in the hope they will be useful to you. Please let us know if you have any questions. We hope you have a wonderful weekend.
America
No Checks on Power? The Effects of Mexico’s Judicial Reform on Foreign Investment and the USMCA Center for Strategic and International Studies
On September 11, 2024, Mexico’s senate approved a sweeping constitutional reform meant to fundamentally reshape the country’s judicial system, principally by having all judges in the country be popularly elected to their positions. Its architect, former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), had spent his six-year term railing against the Mexican judiciary, asserting that the rot of corruption, nepotism, and abuse of power had spread to judges at all levels—federal, state, and local. The genesis of the reform is AMLO’s clashes with the judicial branch. Frustrated by the Supreme Court repeatedly striking down important aspects of his legislative agenda, AMLO came to believe that the Fourth Transformation, his ambitious project to end the “neoliberal era” in Mexico, would require far-reaching constitutional changes to be truly consolidated. During a recent CSIS Americas Program event on the immediate and long-term effects of the reform, panelists and legal experts noted that the constitutional amendment was a key piece in a larger political chessboard aimed at transforming Mexico into a more consolidated state under one-party rule, with potentially disastrous consequences for Mexico’s legal and economic future.
Colombia Wages War on Cash With New Central Bank Payment Network Bloomberg
Colombia’s central bank needs to win over skeptics as it tries to modernize the financial system and reduce the nation’s heavy reliance on cash. While most Colombians now have access to financial products, adoption of digital payments lags emerging market peers such as Brazil due to high transaction costs and a lack of trust. The bank thinks it can fix these problems with the upcoming launch of Bre-B, its new payment infrastructure. Colombians are signing up for digital wallets and low-value deposit accounts at a rapid pace, but they’re still not using them much. As of 2024, about 70% of Colombian adults had at least one such account, and yet nearly 8 out of 10 transactions still take place in cash.
What Passage of the “One Big Beautiful Bill” Means for US Energy and the Economy The Rhodium Group
The fiscal year 2025 budget reconciliation legislation, commonly called the “One Big Beautiful Bill” (OBBB) and signed into law by President Trump last week, will have meaningful reverberations across the US energy sector and economy. We estimate the law will increase national average household energy bills by $78-192 and increase total industrial energy expenditures by $7-11 billion in 2035. The OBBB will cut the build-out of new clean power generating capacity by 53-59% from 2025 through 2035. All told, the law puts more than half a trillion dollars of clean energy and transportation investment at risk of cancellation. It also puts new economic pressure on operating facilities that manufacture clean energy technology—tied to nearly $150 billion of investment—given greatly reduced domestic demand for these products. Though these figures represent substantial changes from the baseline, the impacts could be even more substantial depending on how executive actions shape the law’s implementation.
‘The president is pissed’: Trump's Brazil tariff threat is part of a bigger geopolitical dispute Politico
President Donald Trump is framing his threat to slap a bruising 50 percent tariff on Brazil as a quest for justice for his friend and ally, far-right former President Jair Bolsonaro. But it was his displeasure at a gathering of emerging market nations in Rio de Janeiro over the weekend that tipped the president over the edge, convincing him to send a letter laying out the new levies, according to four people familiar with the situation, granted anonymity to share details. The White House concluded that other methods of punishing Brazil for its perceived mistreatment of Bolsonaro and its alleged censorship on social media, like sanctions, would take too long or were too complex, according to two of the people. But “BRICS tipped the scale,” said Mauricio Claver-Carone, a close ally of Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Trump’s former special envoy to Latin America.
China
The Malacca Dilemma: China’s Achilles’ Heel Modern Diplomacy
President Trump’s recent claims on the Panama Canal and the annexation of Greenland in the Arctic Circle have brought to the fore one of the most paramount notions of geopolitics: command of the sea. “Who rules the waves rules the world.” For China, there is growing concern over a major maritime chokepoint of the Strait of Malacca. All of China’s energy sea lines of communication (SLOCs) converge through this strait. Each year, $3.5 trillion worth of trade—equivalent to one-third of global GDP—passes through the Strait of Malacca, including two-thirds of China’s total trade volume, over 83% of its oil imports, and approximately 16 mb/d of oil and 3.2 mb/d of LNG. Roughly 6.4 billion deadweight tons (dwt) of cargo pass through the strait annually, with about 10 vessels entering or exiting every hour. Most of these shipments consist of fossil fuels from the Middle East and Africa.
Quest for Strategic Autonomy? Europe Grapples with the US - China Rivalry Mario Esteban, Miguel Otero-Iglesias, Cristina de Esperanza, eds., European Think Tank Network on China
The intensifying rivalry between the US and China has reshaped Europe’s strategic calculations. Building on the 2020 European Think Tank Network on China (ETNC) report, which assessed Europe’s positioning in this context, this edition re-examines the geopolitical landscape in light of the Covid-19 pandemic, Russia’s war in Ukraine, and Donald Trump’s return to the White House. This report features 22 national chapters and one dedicated to the EU, analysing the evolution of Europe’s relations with Washington and Beijing, the range of approaches to dealing with the US-China rivalry, and how these are expected to evolve.
China Wants 115,000 Nvidia Chips to Power Data Centers in the Desert Bloomberg Technology
A Bloomberg News analysis of investment approvals, tender documents and company filings shows that Chinese firms aim to install more than 115,000 Nvidia Corp. AI chips in some three dozen data centers across the country’s western deserts. Operators in Xinjiang intend to house the lion’s share of those processors in a single compound — which, if they can pull it off, could be used to train foundational large-language models like those of Chinese AI startup DeepSeek. The complex as envisioned would still be dwarfed by the scale of AI infrastructure in the US, but it would significantly boost China’s computing prowess as President Xi Jinping pushes for technological breakthroughs. Such a project also would raise serious concerns for officials in Washington, who restricted leading-edge Nvidia chip sales to China in 2022 over worries that advanced AI could give Beijing a military edge.
Africa
Financial Flows: Thematic Future Institute for Security Studies (South Africa)/African Futures
This theme on Africa’s financial flows explores the key inward monetary flows shaping Africa’s development, namely official development assistance (aid), foreign direct investment (FDI) and remittances, while also assessing the scale and impact of illicit financial flows. The analysis considers the size and impact of these flows at the regional and country levels. A Financial Flows scenario is modeled subsequently to assess the potential impact of ambitious increases in aid, FDI, remittances, and portfolio investments to Africa and a reduction in illicit financial flows.
Geoeconomics & Trade
Modern Globalization and the Nation State – The Evolving International Political Economy European Centre for International Political Economy
Unresolved political economy contradictions are becoming more evident – between a national manufacturing narrative versus actual technology-led globalization, balancing open trade versus protection, old industries like steel against the new like AI, and whether governments or major corporates are primarily driving these developments. Leaders face the huge challenges to acknowledge today’s complex interdependent world, define essential national interests against special interest pleading, and work with others to deliver their objectives. Not doing so will only exacerbate uncertainty prevalent across countries.
From National Security to Strategic Leverage International Institute for Strategic Studies
As export controls evolve from national security tools to instruments of strategic leverage, the US–China strategic competition is entering a new, more transactional phase. The recent tit-for-tat over chip-design software and rare earths reveals a shifting geopolitical battleground defined by chokepoints, coalition-building, and the race to reduce dependencies.
Soft Landing or Stagnation? A Framework for Estimating the Probabilities of Macro Scenarios Federal Reserve Board Economic Research
Abstract: Amid ongoing trade policy shifts and geopolitical uncertainty, concerns about stagflation have reemerged as a key macroeconomic risk. This paper develops a probabilistic framework to estimate the likelihood of stagflation versus soft landing scenarios over a four-quarter horizon. Building on Bekaert, Engstrom, and Ermolov (2025), the model integrates survey forecasts, structural shock decomposition, and a non-Gaussian BEGE-GARCH approach to capture time-varying volatility and skewness. Results suggest that the probability of stagflation was elevated at around 30 percent in late 2022, while the chance of a soft landing was below 5 percent. As inflation moderated and growth remained strong through 2024, these probabilities reversed. However, by mid-2025, renewed tariff concerns drove stagflation risk back up and the probability of a soft landing lower. These shifts highlight the potential value of distributional forecasting for policymakers and market participants navigating uncertain macroeconomic conditions.
U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead
The House is Poised to Vote on Landmark Crypto Legislation, Banks Ponder Coming Fed and Treasury Regulatory Moves, and Will There Be Bee Hives at the Fed?
July 7 - 11, 2025
We hope you had a wonderful 4th of July holiday. It was a beautiful weekend here in Washington. Now, the nation’s capital is slowly getting back to work slowly this week after the mammoth effort last effort to hammer out and pass President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), getting it to his desk for signature by his deadline of July 4th. It has left Congress rather exhausted, with members eagerly waiting for the August recess.
But the House of Representatives has several financial services-focused matters they are diving into this week. First, the House is likely to take up for passage three landmark crypto legislation this week (but we think it will slip until next week). The bills would 1) create a framework for dollar-pegged stablecoins (H.R. 2392 The Stablecoin Transparency and Accountability for a Better Ledger Economy Action of 2025, otherwise known as the STABLE Act) 2) ban central banks digital currencies (H.R. 1919, the Anti-CBDC Surveillance Act), and 3) define which regulators have oversight over digital assets (H.R. 2633, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 – otherwise known as the CLARITY Act).
How the House will move the bills – will they combine them all into one? Or one at a time? – remains unclear. And the White House and Senate Republicans are pushing the House to instead adopt the Senate-passed stablecoin bill known as the GENIUS Act (S.1582, The Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act). We will update you when we get some more clarity on the strategy the House leadership wants to take.
The House Financial Services Committee is busy this week holding two interesting hearings this week looking at the impact of the Dodd-Frank Act, suggesting the committee is looking at ways to reform and amend the 15-year-old law.
We would also note something else going on with Congress and from one regulator – a not-so-subtle, steady stream of calls for a full-blown investigation of Fed Chair Jay Powell and the Fed. The regulator making the accusations is Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte, who publicly called on Congress to investigate Powell for “political bias” as well as for renovations taking place at the Federal Reserve. Pulte – whose supporters have been not so quietly whispering he should be considered as the next Fed Chair – accused Powell of “malfeasance” that is “worthy of ‘for cause’ removal from the Chair.
From the congressional side, Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-SC) raised his concerns directly with Powell over the renovations during Powell’s recent testimony before the Banking Committee – concerns he repeated on the Sunday morning news shows yesterday. What is so outlandish about the renovations? Supposedly, there is a special VIP dining room being built, special elevators, a new roof terrace garden that would include beehives – all of which Powell has denied as being true (note: as a beekeeper myself, I think it would be very cool to have bees at the Fed. They could sell the honey to help pay down the debt – just a suggestion…).
Finally, with OBBBA out of the way and crypto legislation moving, banks are increasingly curious about what Fed regulatory and supervisory changes are going to be coming under Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman. The Fed is holding a conference on July 22 on large bank capital requirements. And likely other big regulatory shifts are going to come – but what exactly they will has become a giant guessing game among bank lobbyists.
Additionally, the Treasury Department, which seems to be the busiest place in Washington overseeing trade talks, the details of OBBBA, and a host of other issues, is planning to play a greater role in financial regulation. Back in April, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent spoke at the American Bankers Association Washington Summit and said Treasury’s involvement could come in several ways, such as a more active Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) or the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets. And there are still rumors floating around about a possible merger of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), along with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB).
All this suggests we are going to have a very busy fall when Congress gets back from its August recess. But for now, below are the meetings and events happening this week in Washington of note:
U.S. Congressional Hearings
U.S. Senate
· Wednesday, July 9, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee holds a hearing entitled “From Wall Street to Web3: Building Tomorrow’s Digital Asset Markets.”
House of Representatives
· Tuesday, July 8, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing entitled “Main Street or Mandates? How Dodd-Frank Closed the Door on Financial Opportunities.” You can read the committee memorandum on the hearing and the legislation they will be considering during the hearing HERE.
· Wednesday, July 9, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Capital Markets holds a hearings entitled “Fifteen Years of Dodd-Frank: Assessing the Costs, Consequences, and Path Forward for U.S. Capital Markets.”
· Wednesday, July 9, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Housing & Insurance holds a hearing entitled “HOME 2.0: Modern Solutions to the Housing Shortage.”
Federal Department & Regulatory Agency
Meetings & Events
Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks
· Thursday, July 10, 1:15 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller entitled “Balance Sheet” at a Conversation with Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and the World Affairs Council of Dallas/Fort Worth, Dallas, Texas
U.S. Treasury Department
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Department of Commerce
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Department of Housing and Urban Development
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Securities and Exchange Commission
· Thursday, July 10, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.
Commodities Futures Trading Commission
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
FINRA
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
National Credit Union Administration
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Farm Credit Administration
· Thursday, July 10, 10:00 a.m. – The Farm Credit Administration Board meets to hear a report on Food Hubs.
Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation
· Wednesday, July 9, 10:00 a.m. – The FCSIC Board meetings. The agenda includes reviews of the FCSIC’s Quarterly FCSIC Financial Reports, Quarterly Report on Insured Obligations, Quarterly Report on Annual Performance Plan, and the Mid-Year Review of Insurance Premium Rates.
International Monetary Fund & World Bank
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
North American Securities Administrators Association
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Small Business Administration
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Trade Associations & Think Tank Events
Trade Associations
· Wednesday, July 10, 10:00 a.m. ET – The Investment Company Institute holds a conference entitled “The Digital Future of Asset Management: Current State and Regulatory Landscape.”
Think Tanks and Other Events
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.
The Global Week Ahead
Trump’s Reciprocal Tariff Extension Ends, The BRICS+ Summit Concludes, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu Returns to the White House, ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meet, The Eurogroup Gathers While Fed Minutes Are Released
July 6 - 13, 2025
It may be summer in the Northern Hemisphere, but there is a lot going on in Washington, Europe, and Asia this week. The biggest event politically and for markets this week comes on Wednesday when President Trump’s 90-day extension on placing “reciprocal tariffs” ends. At that point, President Trump is expected to revert back to the April 2nd rates on all countries that fail to secure a trade deal with the US. Or at least that was the case until Sunday morning when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters the actual reversion date will now be August 1st. The White House is sending letters to 100 smaller countries, after which the larger tariffs will take effect by that date.
EU financial ministers will gather for a Eurogroup meeting this week in Brussels, where US trade relations will be a major agenda item. The European Commission and the European Parliament are also expected to hold discussions on the US tariffs and strategies for reaching a deal.
Meanwhile, the BRICS+ Leaders’ Summit concludes on Monday in Brazil. The Summit lacked the hoped-for heft and impact after Chinese President Xi Jinping cancelled his attendance due to “scheduling conflicts,” and Russian President Vladimir Putin said he could not attend, mostly out of fear of being arrested for war crimes. Markets will be watching for the final communique and any indications of what comes next for the BRICS.
Also on Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be in Washington for a meeting with President Trump. It is Netanyahu’s third trip to Washington to meet with the President since Trump was inaugurated in January. The agenda is a big one: The two leaders are going to discuss the situation in Gaza, and Trump is expected to press Netanyahu on a more permanent ceasefire. They are also expected to discuss what comes next with Iran. There has been talk that US Special Envoy Steven Witkoff might meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi Monday – or perhaps later in the week – in Oslo, Norway, to discuss Iran’s nuclear program. But this has yet to be confirmed.
In Asia this week, ASEAN Foreign Ministers are going to be meeting in Kuala Lumpur on the sidelines of the ASEAN Regional Forum and the East Asia Summit – two of the biggest, most important multilateral meetings held in the region annually. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will be attending as will Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was scheduled to attend but cancelled at the end of last week to stay in Washington to focus on the Netanyahu meeting and the Iran nuclear talks. Rubio was also scheduled to fly to Japan and then South Korea to meet with his counterparts about regional security issues, but he has canceled that trip, too.
Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, next to the July 9th tariff deadline set by President Trump expiring, markets will be looking at the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee minutes, which are being released on Wednesday. Specifically, the focus will be on how divided the Fed might be on the issue of cutting interest rates – especially after Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman indicated recently they were in favor of cutting rates.
In Europe, markets are looking at the UK GDP release on Friday, Germany’s industrial production numbers on Monday, and the trade balance on Tuesday. And in Asia, China’s CPI is released on Wednesday, Japan releases wage data for May on Monday and the Economy Watchers report on Tuesday, and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision on Tuesday.
Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:
Sunday, July 6, 2025
Global
· The 15th BRICS Leaders’ Summit begins in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil and runs through July 7. Eleven members are expected to be represented. However, neither Chinese President Xi Jinping nor Russian President Vladimir Putin are going to attend.
· The OPEC+ monthly meeting will be held (virtually)
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The 49th CARICOM (Caribbean Community) Heads of Government Meeting begins in Montego Bay, Jamaica and runs through July 8.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· The Dalai Lama is expected to reveal his succession plan via a video announcement.
· The Emperor of Japan will make an official visit to Mongolia through next Sunday.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Vietnam Balance of Trade (June)/ Foreign Direct Investment (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Tourist Arrivals (June)
· Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The Africa Spain Summit begins and runs through July 8 in Madrid. Government representatives from Guinea-Bissau, Somalia, Morocco and Sierra Leone will attend.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Today is National Day in Comoros, a national holiday.
· Today is Independence Day in Malawi, a national holiday.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Monday, July 7, 2025
Global
· The International Seabed Authority Council meets in Kingston, Jamaica.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet with President Trump in Washington, D.C. The two leaders are expected to discuss next step on dealing with Iran as well as the situation in Gaza. This is the third visit by Netanyahu since Trump took office in January. As this meeting takes place, US Special Envoy Steven Witkoff may be meeting in Oslo, Norway with the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to discuss Iran’s nuclear development (but that meeting is yet to be confirmed).
· President Trump said on Friday the US will begin negotiations with China on a potential deal regarding TikTok. The President said “we pretty much have a deal. I think we are going to start Monday or Tuesday…”
Economic Reports/Events –
· Mexico Auto Exports (June)/ Auto Production (June)
· Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)
· Brazil Car Production (June)/ New Car Registrations (June)/ BCB Focus Market Readout
· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (June)
· USA Fed Balance Sheet (July/02)
· Colombia Inflation Rate (June)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
· El Salvador Inflation Rate (June)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Solomon Islands Independence Day.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Japan Average Cash Earnings (May)/ Overtime Pay (May)/ Coincident Index (May)/ Leading Economic Index (May)
· Australia ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (June)
· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)
· Thailand Inflation Rate (June)
· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)
· Chinese Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)
· Philippines Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The Eurogroup meets in Brussels. The agenda includes fiscal policy coordination, the growing international role of the euro, and Bulgaria’s engagement in the EU. The ministers will also elect a president for the next term.
· Poland will launch border controls with Germany to halt the flow of illegal migrants.
· There will be an informal meeting of EU labor ministers in Aalborg, Denmark.
· Polish President Andrzej Duga visits Prague for bilateral talks.
· German Foreign Minister Johan Wadepul will make a working visit to Prague.
· The France-Central European Countries and Ukraine Business Forum takes place in Paris, France.
· Today is the beginning of Paris Fashion Week for Haute Couture for the fall/winter season.
· Today is the Running of the Bulls, otherwise known as the annual Festival of San Fermin.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Deutsche Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel speaks on “The German economy: navigating cyclical fluctuations and boosting long-term growth” at the Ragnar Nurkse lecture in Tallinn, Estonia.
· Germany Industrial Production (May)
· Romania Retail Sales (May)
· Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (June)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (June)
· Hungary Retail Sales (May)
· France Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)
· Slovakia Retail Sales (May)
· Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)
· Euro Area Retail Sales (May)
· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)
· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)
· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (June)
· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Tourist Arrivals (June)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)
· Kuwait Private Bank Lending (May)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Heroes of Zambia Day, a national holiday honoring those who fought for the country’s independence.
· Today is Saba Day in Tanzania, a national holiday celebrating the unification of political parties seeing independence.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Egypt S&P Global PMI (June)
· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)
Tuesday, July 8, 2025
Global
· The UN will host The AI for Good Global Summit 2025 in Geneva, Switzerland.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (June)/ Redbook (July/05)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)/ Consumer Credit Change (May)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (July/04)/ Used Car Prices (June)
· Brazil Retail Sales (May)
· Chile Inflation Rate (June)
· Argentina Industrial Production (May)
· Uruguay Interest Rate Decision
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· ASEAN Foreign Ministers will meet while also attending the East Asia Summit (which runs through Thursday) and the ASEAN Regional Forum in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. US Secretary of State Maco Rubio was set to attend as well as meet with his counterparts in side trips to Japan and South Korea but cancelled for focus on Middle East issues. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and the EU High Representative Vice President Kaja Kallas are expected to attend.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Japan Current Account (May)/ Bank Lending (June)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (June)
· Philippines Unemployment Rate (May)/ Industrial Production (May)
· Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference/Australia NAB Business Confidence (June)
· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (June)
· Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)
· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Brussels. Ministers will discuss the Stability and Growth Pact, the Danish Presidency work program, the Savings and Investment Union, and the Recovery and Resilience Facility.
· French President Emmanual Macron makes a head of state visit to London. Macron will be hosted by King Charles and Queen Camilla through Thursday. Macron will also address the British Parliament as part of an effort to strengthen UK-EU ties.
· EU President Ursula von der Leyen will in an exchange of views with the EP Conference of Presidents on the next Multiannual Financial Framework.
· Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez addresses parliament over Socialist party corruption scandal .
Economic Reports/Events –
· Ireland Construction PMI (June)
· Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)
· Hungary Inflation Rate (June)/ Budget Balance (June)
· France Imports/ Exports/Balance of Trade (May)/ Current Account (May)
· Greece Balance of Trade (May)
· Romania Interest Rate Decision
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Tanzania Inflation Rate (June)
Wednesday, July 9, 2025
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Yemen).
· The OECD releases its Employment Outlook report for OECD member countries. The outlook will also include an analysis of declining fertility globally and its impact on future employment and economic growth.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· President Trump’s 90 day pause on “reciprocal tariffs” is set to expire.
· President Trump will host the Africa-US Leaders’ Summit in Washington, D.C. The heads of state from Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mauritania, and Senegal are expected to attend the conference which runs through July 11 and will focus on mutual economic opportunities and regional security.
· The 12th International Aeronautics Fair begins in Colombia.
· Today is Argentine Independence Day, a national holiday.
· Today is State Rebellion Day in Brazil.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US Federal Reserve Board Open Market Meeting Minutes
· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (July/04)/ Wholesale Inventories (May)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (July/04)/
· Mexico Inflation Rate (June)
· El Salvador PPI (June)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Taiwan will hold live-fire military drills as part of their annual Han Kuang exercise. The drill simulates a possible attack by China and lasts for ten days and will involve thousands of reservists.
· Today is Palau Constitution Day, a national holiday.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser gives a speech at the Australian Conference of Economists in Sydney/ RBA Chart Pack/ Building Permits (May)/ Private House Approvals (May)/ RBA Hunter Speech
· China Inflation Rate (June)/ PPI (June)
· New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
· Indonesia Retail Sales (May)/ Car Sales (June)/ Motorbike Sales (June)
· Japan Machine Tool Orders (June)
· Malaysia Interest Rate Decision
· India M3 Money Supply (June/27)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Germany Chancellor Friedrich Merz greets NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on a visit to Germany to celebrate the country’s 70th anniversary of its membership in NATO.
Economic Reports/Events –
· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the keynote speech and participates in a Q&A on the monetary policy agenda at the House of the Euro in Brussels, Belgium.
· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives closing remarks at the Cursos de Verano CEU-El Escorial "La Economía Española: realidad y perspectivas" in El Escorial, Spain.
· Slovakia Balance of Trade (May)
· Greece Inflation Rate (June)
· Great Britain BoE Financial Stability Report
· Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Chinese Premier Li Qiang visits will visit Egypt for bilateral talks.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Consumer Confidence (June)
· Jordan GDP Growth Rate Q1
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Namibia for talks on economic cooperation.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Thursday, July 10, 2025
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA). In the afternoon, it is scheduled to hold a briefing on ICC Sudan.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Bahamas Independence Day, a national holiday.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller entitled “Balance Sheet” at a Conversation with Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and the World Affairs Council of Dallas/Fort Worth, Dallas, Texas.
· Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary C. Daly will join MNI Connect for a virtual conversation on “The US Economic Outlook and Challenges for Policymakers.”
· St. Louis President Alberto Musalem speaks.
· Brazil Inflation Rate (June)
· USA Initial Jobless Claims (July/05)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (June/28)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (July)/Fed Balance Sheet (July/09)
· Mexico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
· Peru Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (May)
· Ecuador Balance of Trade (May)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Top military commanders from the US, South Korea, and Japan will meet in Seoul to discuss regional security issues, mostly focusing on North Korea’s nuclear weapons program..
Economic Reports/Events –
· New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (May)
· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (July/05)/ PPI (June)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (July)
· South Korea Interest Rate Decision
· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (June)
· Malaysia Unemployment Rate (May)
· Kazakhstan PPI (June)
· Thailand Consumer Confidence (June)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· There will be an informal meeting of EU Environment Ministers in Brussels through July 11.
· The Ukraine Recovery Conference takes place in Rome through July 11. The meeting will be hosted by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
· EU President Ursula von der Leyen faces a European parliament no-confidence vote in latest challenge to the European Commission president, the first time since 2014 that the head of the commission has faced such a move. However, the vote will mainly be symbolic as she is expected to survive
Economic Reports/Events –
· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a lecture on "Ever changing payment landscape: What will a digital euro bring?" followed by a discussion with Vice Governor Marko Pahor organized by Banka Slovenije in Ljubljana, Slovakia.
· Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden gives the Annual Chapman-Barrigan Lecture entitled “Weathering the Storm: Stability in a Changing Climate” in London.
· Germany Inflation Rate (June)
· Romania Balance of Trade (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1
· Slovakia Industrial Production (May)
· Turkey Industrial Production (May)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/04)
· Italy Industrial Production (May)
· Slovenia Industrial Production (May)
· Greece Industrial Production (May)
· Ireland Industrial Production (May)/ Inflation Rate (June)
· Serbia Interest Rate Decision
· Ukraine Inflation Rate (June)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Business Confidence (June)
· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (May)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· The African Union Executive Council will meet in Malabo, Equatorial Guinea through July 11.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Manufacturing Production (May)
· Egypt Inflation Rate (June)/ Core Inflation Rate (June)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate
· Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q1
Friday, July 11, 2025
Global
· The International Energy Agency (IEA) July Oil Markets Report is released.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· President Trump is expected to visit Texas to see the impact of recent catastrophic flash floods.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Mexico Industrial Production (May)
· Canada Unemployment Rate (June)/ Employment Change (June)/ Participation Rate (June)/Average Hourly Wages (June)
· Brazil Business Confidence (July)
· USA WASDE Report/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (July)/ Monthly Budget Statement (June)
· Paraguay Balance of Trade (June)
· Uruguay Industrial Production (May)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (June)
· Singapore GDP Growth Rate Q2
· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (April)
· Japan BoJ JGB Purchases
· Malaysia Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)
· Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision
· Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)
· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/04)
· China Vehicle Sales (June)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a panel 'Integration of the Ukrainian Financial Sector into the European Internal Market' at Ukraine Recovery Conference (URC2025) in Rome, Italy.
· Germany Wholesale Prices (June)/ Current Account (May)
· Romania Inflation Rate (June)
· Great Britain GDP (May)/ Goods Trade Balance (May)/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Construction Output (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Manufacturing Production (May)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (June)
· France Inflation Rate (June)/ IEA Oil Market Report
· Slovakia Construction Output (May)
· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (June)
· Turkey Current Account (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Auto Production (June)/ Auto Sales (June)
· Serbia Inflation Rate (June)
· Belarus Inflation Rate (June)
· Russia Balance of Trade (May)/ Current Account Q2/ Inflation Rate (June)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Jordan Inflation Rate (June)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Mozambique Inflation Rate (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1
· Angola Inflation Rate (June)
Saturday, July 12, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Independence Day in Kiribati, a small island in the South Pacific which gained its independence from the UK in 1979.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Sunday, July 13, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Today is the first anniversary of President Trump being shot at a rally in Pennsylvania.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Japan holds the Chinreisha Festival (Spirit-Pacifying Shrine) at the Yasukuni Shrine dedicated to all of those who died in wars or incidents since 1853 and who cannot be enshrined in the Main sanctuary, in other words enemies of Imperial Japan.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· France celebrates Bastille Day.
· Today is Sovereignty Day in Montenegro, a national holiday.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Recommended Weekend Reads
The Taliban Become Major Critical Minerals Dealers, How the Trump Tariffs Are Reshaping Latin America, A New US-Africa Blueprint To Counter China, And Dollar Dominance After Liberation Day
July 4 - 6, 2025
Below are the reports and studies we found of particular interest this past week. We wanted to share them with you in the hope they will be useful to you. Please let us know if you have any questions. We hope you have a wonderful weekend.
Critical Minerals
Minerals for Recognition: The Taliban’s Shadow Diplomacy Geopolitical Monitor
Since the Taliban’s return to power, Afghanistan’s mineral and extractive industries have assumed growing strategic importance in the broader context of sustaining the country’s fragile economy. The abrupt loss of access to international financial assistance, the freezing of foreign-held assets, and the enforced curtailment of opium poppy cultivation have pushed the Taliban leadership to refocus on domestic resources, particularly the country’s vast mineral reserves. Yet, there is little indication that the Taliban intend to pursue full-scale exploitation or large-scale export of these resources in the immediate term. Rather, their approach appears deliberately cautious, treating Afghanistan’s natural wealth less as a means of short-term economic gain and more as a tool of political leverage and diplomatic bargaining on the international stage.
Trans-Atlantic Critical Mineral Supply Chain Cooperation: How to Secure Critical Minerals, Battery and Military Supply Chains in the European Theatre Instituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract: The intensifying US-China competition has profound implications for critical mineral supply chains (CMSCs), affecting trade, export controls and market dynamics. US and European firms face difficulties competing with China’s dominant market position, which has led to shutdowns and restricted access to essential materials. China’s state-backed industrial policy, integration of the Communist Party into commercial operations and use of market power for geopolitical leverage have enabled it to control key mineral-technology value chains, complicating international cooperation and raising security concerns. The global push for decarbonization has increased civilian demand for critical minerals, particularly in new energy technologies, outpacing defense sector needs and limiting its influence in securing resources. In response, both the US and EU have developed strategies to mitigate vulnerabilities in their supply chains, recognizing the need for diversified control, crisis management mechanisms and enhanced cooperation. The war in Ukraine has further underscored the urgency of strengthening the defense industrial base, with case studies illustrating the material demands for military technologies such as FPV drones. Drawing on the experiences of South Korea and Japan, and fostering transatlantic cooperation through trade agreements and intelligence sharing, the US and Europe can build greater resilience against geopolitical disruptions and the concentrated, mercantilist nature of current CMSCs.
Three U.S. Government Lists: Which Minerals Are the Most Critical? CSIS Critical Minerals Security Program
This interactive report reports on the existence of multiple, inconsistent lists of which minerals the US government considers most critical. The net effect is unnecessary complexity and uncertainty, undermining efforts to encourage private investment across critical mineral supply chains both domestically and internationally. Critical minerals are defined as resources essential to national security and economic competitiveness. However, the U.S. government lacks a single unified list of these minerals. Instead, the Departments of Defense, Energy, and the Interior each maintain their own distinct lists based on factors such as supply chain vulnerabilities and the minerals’ importance to national security, economic resilience, and manufacturing. Among the 70 materials identified across these lists, only 13 are classified as critical by all three agencies. These lists play a significant role in determining eligibility for federal funding and incentives, including Defense Production Act Title III grants, Inflation Reduction Act tax credits, and Export-Import Bank financing. Beyond funding implications, these lists send powerful signals to the private sector about which minerals are considered strategic priorities for U.S. investment.
Geoeconomics
Dollar Movements and Dollar Dominance in the Aftermath of Liberation Day Steven Kamin/AEI Economics Working Paper
Abstract: This paper provides econometric evidence in support of the view that following President Trump’s chaotic tariff announcements on Liberation Day, April 2, the dollar switched from being a safe-haven currency that appreciates in times of market volatility to a “risk-on” currency that moves inversely with volatility. We estimate an equation for daily changes in the DXY dollar index, using as explanatory variables daily changes in US-foreign interest rate differentials and the VIX, a measure of market volatility. We find a significant break in the relationship between the dollar and its primary determinants after Liberation Day, with the dollar falling below its predicted level. More importantly, in the two months after Liberation Day, the sensitivity of the dollar to the VIX shifted from positive to negative, suggesting that global investors ceased to treat the dollar as a safe haven in times of stress. Most recently, the dollar’s sensitivity to the VIX has retraced some of its earlier decline, but whether this signals a return of the dollar’s safe-haven status remains to be seen.
A Trump Risk Premium in the Dollar Robin Brooks Substack
The standard rationale for why the Dollar has fallen so sharply - it’s down 11 percent so far this year - is that chaotic policy making by the Trump administration is causing a risk premium to build. Here’s the thing: there’s no empirical evidence that this is in fact what’s going on. Instead, the fall in the Dollar maps almost entirely into interest differentials. This means markets are trading a much more conventional view, which is that tariffs will drag down US growth, causing the Fed to be more dovish than other central banks. As I’ve noted previously, I disagree with this view. Even if there is a hit to growth, tariffs are inflationary for the US and deflationary for everyone else. That should keep the Fed more hawkish than its G10 peers, not more dovish.
A New Impediment to Balance of Payments Adjustment: Underwater Bonds Brad Setser/Council on Foreign Relations
A few years back, Silicon Valley Bank (and a few other regional banks) got into trouble because they held too many long-dated government bonds. Government bonds are generally a safe investment; advanced economies that borrow in their own currencies don’t usually default on their own debt. But the market value of long-term bonds fluctuates with interest rates, and low-yielding bonds bought before COVID and during the first year of COVID fell in value when inflation took off and the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates. A 10-year bond bought at par with a 2 percent coupon back in 2018 (or a coupon well below that in 2020) isn’t going to be worth its face value in the open market now. A coupon of 2 percent or so is just too low a rate on a bond that still has a few years to maturity. The same is true for long-term Agency bonds (the underlying mortgages now won’t be refinanced, so the long really is a long-term bond) and long-term corporate bonds. This, though, isn’t just a problem for U.S. regional banks.
Africa
Critical Minerals, Fragile Peace: the DRC-Rwanda Deal and the Cost of Ignoring Root Causes CSIS
On Friday, June 27, in Washington, D.C., the foreign ministers of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Rwanda are set to sign the Critical Minerals for Security and Peace Deal, a United States–brokered agreement aimed at calming tensions in a region affected by violence and resource exploitation. This historic accord, which seeks to stabilize the eastern DRC, is the product of months of quiet diplomacy led by Massad Boulos, the U.S. special adviser for Africa. Its objective is to facilitate cooperation over the extraction and trade of rare earth minerals in exchange for security to offset China’s dominance in this sector. Initiated by Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi, this agreement comes amid renewed insecurity caused by the resurgence of the March 2 Movement (M23) militia, which since 2022 has seized significant territory in North and South Kivu provinces, including the strategic cities of Goma and Bukavu. These provinces are not only home to millions of civilians but also hold some of the world’s richest deposits of rare earth minerals—essential for everything from electric vehicles to smartphones. Despite the diplomatic celebrations, the deal raises questions. While mineral wealth is a driver of the conflict, it is not the root cause of the violence.
A New US-Africa Blueprint for Trump Amid China’s Rise Brookings
While Africa has historically been sidelined in American foreign policy priorities, the continent is moving rapidly to the center of specific U.S. global priorities. Driven by demographic growth, critical mineral reserves, and expanding markets, Africa offers one of the clearest arenas where American interests and opportunities align. The Trump administration now faces a critical opportunity to craft a forward-looking strategy that delivers on its own foreign policy priorities: reclaiming leadership in global trade (prosperity), advancing American influence in a competitive world (power), strengthening regional and global stability (peace and security), and promoting core American ideals (principles). Given the scale of opportunity, this brief presents actionable recommendations on how the administration can act decisively across these four pillars and why doing so is both strategically sound and urgently needed.
South Africa and Nigeria need divergent strategies for the informal sector ISS/African Futures
Nigeria and South Africa are Africa’s largest economies, and their future development has a significant impact on their sub-regions and the continent as a whole. The African Futures and Innovation team at the Institute for Security Studies (AFI-ISS) recently completed and presented an updated forecast for Nigeria to the office of the Vice President in Abuja, as well as presented an updated forecast for South Africa at a closed, expert meeting hosted by In Transformation and the Gordon Institute for Business Science. In completing these forecasts, the team was struck by the evidence of lackluster development in Southern Africa compared to West Africa. As one metric of slow growth, Southern Africa registered the highest unemployment rate globally at 33.2% in 2024, using data from the International Labour Organization(ILO). Eswatini, South Africa, and Botswana rank 1st, 2nd and 5th in the world on unemployment rates. In South Africa, the previous systems of mining, education and business were premised on the extraction of maximum profits and burdened the country with huge inequalities. With poor-quality education and limited entrepreneurship, employment is particularly low, and inequality is exceptionally high. In fact, on both these counts, South Africa fares the worst globally.
Burkina Faso, the World's Disinformation Lab Foreign Policy Research Institute
Burkina Faso is many things. The country is considered to be the epicenter of global terrorism today. It is ranked number one on the Global Terrorism Index Scale (2024), marking the first time in the thirteen years since the database’s inception that Iraq or Afghanistan have not topped the index. The country has been rocked by jihadist attacks on major towns like Djibo, with jihadists using drones and anti-aircraft guns to fight off government forces. However, the regime’s propaganda forces paint Burkina Faso in a very different light. All appears well in the digitally constructed alternate reality of President Ibrahim Traoré. In deepfake videos seen by millions worldwide, the country’s president is beloved by international stars such as Justin Bieber and Beyonce. Never mind that these stars have likely never heard of Burkina Faso, nor know anything about the country’s junta president. Traoré’s alternate reality represents an unsettling new world, one in which government-dominated social media attempts to balance the reality of societal collapse.
Americas
How US Tariffs are Rewiring Latin American Trade Americas Quarterly
On April 2, the U.S. tore up the trade rulebook it helped create, as the White House implemented sweeping tariffs that redefined how the world’s largest economy does business. Nearly all countries now face a 10% tariff, and higher individualized rates of up to 50% were also imposed before the Trump administration issued a 90-day pause, set to expire on July 9. Latin America must now decide whether to double down on the current system, where the U.S. plays a dominant yet unpredictable role, or to embrace regional integration and economic diversification with Asia and Europe to hedge against future shocks. Depending on national policy responses and the evolution of bilateral trade negotiations, the aftermath of “Liberation Day” could open alternate pathways for economic growth, foreign direct investment (FDI) and trade.
American Pride Slips to New Low Gallup Polls
A record-low 58% of U.S. adults say they are “extremely” (41%) or “very” (17%) proud to be an American, down nine percentage points from last year and five points below the prior low from 2020. The 41% who are “extremely proud” is not statistically different from prior lows of 38% in 2022 and 39% in 2023, indicating most of the change this year is attributable to a decline in the percentage who are “very proud.”
U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead
Will Congress Pass OBBBA By Independence Day? Otherwise, Washington Is Going To Be Very Quiet This Week
June 30 - July 4, 2025
It is Independence Day on Friday, and that means not much is happening this week in Washington, other than the massive, marathon wrestling match taking place in Congress to move forward with passage of The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). President Trump has demanded that Congressional Republican leaders get a final package to his desk by July 4th for his signature. Will they do it? It is going to be close, but as of this writing, the Senate is about to vote on their bill and send it to the House. Our view is the House will ultimately take what the Senate sends them (or face the wrath of Trump). But it will be very close.
Otherwise, it will be a very quiet week in Washington, as none of the major regulators have any important meetings or policy speeches scheduled.
Looking at what happened last week, it was a busy one for the Federal Reserve. Fed Chair Jay Powell appeared before the House Financial Services Committee and then the Senate Banking Committee. Then the Fed published the results of the annual stress tests – all the major banks passed as expected. This came on the heels of the Fed, along with the FDIC, issuing a new proposal to modify the Enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio Standards. Additionally, the Fed announced it will hold a conference on large bank capital requirements on July 22.
Returning to Congress for a moment, we learned that the Senate will take up the GENIUS Act, creating a market structure for the cryptocurrency market, sometime in September when they return from the August recess. And speaking of crypto: the Federal Housing Finance Agency has directed the two mortgage giants, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, to develop proposals to consider a borrower’s crypto holdings as part of the underwriting process, which could be quite a shift for the housing market going forward.
We hope you have a wonderful 4th of July. And to our Canadian readers, we wish you a great Canada Day on Monday, as we celebrate our respective independence and liberty. Below are the very few events we could find happening this week in Washington among the regulators:
U.S. Congressional Hearings
U.S. Senate
· There are no hearings scheduled this week in advance of the Independence Day holiday.
House of Representatives
· There are no hearings scheduled this week in advance of the Independence Day holiday.
Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events
Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks
· Monday, June 30, 8:00 a.m. – Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy before an MNI Livestreamed Connect Video Conference.
· Tuesday, July 1, 9:30 a.m. GMT - Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell participates on a policy panel at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking 2025 in Sintra, Portugal.
· Monday, June 30, 11:00 a.m. – Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Aspen Ideas Festival 2025.
U.S. Treasury Department
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Department of Commerce
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Department of Housing and Urban Development
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Securities and Exchange Commission
· Thursday, July 3, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.
Commodities Futures Trading Commission
· Wednesday, July 2, 2:45 p.m. UK time – CFTC Acting Chair Caroline D. Pham will participate in a fireside chat titled "A view from over the pond: the CFTC’s role in regulating digital assets" at City & Financial GlobalX’s City Week 2025 in London.
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
FINRA
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
National Credit Union Administration
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division
· Monday, June 30, 2:00 a.m. – The FTC holds a Listening Session on Lowering Americans’ Drug Prices Through Competition at the FTC Headquarters.
Farm Credit Administration
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Farm Credit Insurance Corporation
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
International Monetary Fund & World Bank
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
North American Securities Administrators Association
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Small Business Administration
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Trade Associations & Think Tank Events
Trade Associations
Monday, July 30 – The Institute for International Bankers holds its 2025 Tax Conference in New York.
Think Tanks and Other Events
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
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