Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis, as well as book recommendations, travel observations, and cultural experiences - all of which we hope will be of interest to you.

Francis Kelly 9/15/24 Francis Kelly 9/15/24

The Global Week Ahead

Central Banks Dominate the Markets and Politics this Week, Voting Begins in Pennsylvania and a Number of Other States, and the Quad Leaders Meet with President Biden to Discuss Indo-Pacific Security Issues

For markets this coming week, it is all about central bank meetings and interest rates. The U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the Central Bank of Brazil all meet. But of them all, the U.S. Fed’s decision will likely be the most impactful as markets debate whether it is a 25—or 50-basis cut.

Against this global monetary backdrop, voting begins in the U.S., with Pennsylvania kicking off in-person voting and a number of other states beginning mail-in voting. The Fed’s decision to cut rates – if, in fact, that is what they do – is likely to incur the wrath of former President Trump, who has already suggested such a cut two months before the election, is meant to tip the political scales for Vice President Kamala Harris and Democrats. But as this happens, the U.S. Congress seems to be marching toward another government shutdown as House Republicans battle over what should be added to a Continuing Resolution (C.R.) to keep the government open until at least after the elections. History has repeatedly shown that the political party that causes shutdowns pays for it at the ballot box. There is hope a last-minute solution can be reached, but the timeline is getting increasingly tight.

Meanwhile, President Biden will host the Quad Summit in his home state of Delaware this week. The Prime Ministers of India, Japan, and Australia will gather with Biden to discuss the current security situation in the Indo-Pacific and how best to deal with growing tensions with China in the South China Sea and elsewhere. As this is happening – and on a positive note – the top Chinese General in the region, General Wu Yanan, is expected to visit the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command in Hawaii this week. It has been at least three years since such a meeting has taken place and it is considered to be a notable step in improving relations and engagement between China and the U.S. The visit comes after a video conference call between the General Yanan and Admiral Samuel Paparo, Head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, the first such call in a long time.

Turning back to the global economic radar screen for the week, markets are watching the August US retail sales numbers and industrial production figures. In Europe, the U.K. releases its August inflation prints, while Germany releases the latest ZEW survey. In Asia, Japan’s August CPI and trade balance are out this week, while China releases retail sales and industrial production figures.

Below are the many other important events and releases we are watching this coming week:

Sunday, September 15, 2024

Global

· Muslims worldwide mark "al-Mawlid al-Nabawi", the birthday of Prophet Mohammed.

· The IMF will resume online consultations with Russia ahead of the organization's first visit to the country since 2019.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Argentine President Javier Milei presents budget for 2025 to Congress. He is breaking normal tradition of sending it and instead deliver it in person.

· After signing into law the controversial new judicial reform bill, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador leads 'cry of independence' ceremony in Mexico City, his final public event as president.

· Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua all celebrate their respective Independence Days today.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The 56th ASEAN Economic Ministers Meet (AEM) takes place in Vientiane, Laos.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China FDI (YTD) (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Romania holds presidential elections. Independent candidate Mircea Geoană is estimated to secure the most votes, followed closely by the Prime Minister and leader of the Social Democrat Party (PSD), Marcel Ciolacu.

· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz begins his first trip to Central Asia with visits to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The trip comes after Scholz hosted the leaders of five central Asian nations in Berlin in 2023 to discuss closer cooperation and to find a way to pry away growing relations these nations are building with Russia and China. Scholz will take part in the C5+1 meeting in Kazakhstan (the C5 being Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan).

· The NATO Military Committee meets in Prague, Czech Republic.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates in a fireside chat at the Open Day 2024 of Deutsche Bundesbank in Frankfurt, Germany.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· In Iran, today is the 2nd anniversary of protests sparked by death of Mahsa Amini arrested for alleged breach of Iran's strict dress code. The government is enforcing a strict lock-down on any protests or visits to her grave.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (August) / Wholesale Prices (August)

· Israel Inflation Rate (August)/ M1 Money Supply (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Students in Nigeria will hold nationwide protests over rising fuel prices.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 16, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East. Humanitarian Coordinator for Gaza Sigrid Kaag reports to the Council her latest findings.

· UN Security Council The UN nuclear watchdog IAEA holds its annual General Conference in Geneva.

· The UN Special Rapporteurs will press conference on violence and human rights violations in Gaza, occupied Palestinian Territories in Geneva.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Former President Donald Trump launches his cryptocurrency platform World Liberty Financial with a live address from Mar-a-Lago, Florida.

· Pennsylvania beings early voting.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Canada Manufacturing Sales Final (July)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (July)

· USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (September)/ NOPA Crush Report

· Colombia Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

· Paraguay Consumer Confidence (August)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· Peru GDP Growth Rate (July)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· ASEAN Economic ministers gather in Vientiane. The high-level gathering, meant to foster economic cooperation and integration, comes as the region continues to navigate challenges brought by geopolitical tensions and China's slowing economy.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (August)

· India Passenger Vehicles Sales (August)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Philippines Cash Remittances (July)

· Kazakhstan Industrial Production (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Germany will introduce stricter controls at its land borders for the next six months.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Research Ministers through September 17 in Budapest, Hungary.

· Audi unions have called for demonstration by auto workers against job losses in Europe.

· An initiative group headed by Armenia's former justice minister will begin collecting signatures on the issue of holding a referendum on Armenia's accession to the European Union.

Economic Reports/Events –

European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in a conversation at event VII Foro Banca organized by El Economista in Madrid, Spain.

European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a speech at the European Investment Bank Chief Economists' meeting in Luxembourg.

· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (August)

· Euro Area ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts/ ECB Guindos Speech/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Labour Cost Index Q2/ Wage Growth Q2/ ECB Lane Speech

· Italy Inflation Rate Final (August)/ Balance of Trade (July)

· Ireland Balance of Trade (July)

· Serbia Building Permits (July)

· Poland Core Inflation Rate (August)

· Ukraine Balance of Trade (July)

· Turkey Auto Production (August)/ Auto Sales (August)/ Budget Balance (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q2/ Unemployment Rate (August)

· Oman Inflation Rate (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Food Inflation (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

· Ethiopia Inflation Rate (August)

Tuesday, September 17, 2024

Global

· In Geneva, A UN sponsored independent international Fact-Finding Mission Venezuela’s latest report to the Human Rights Council will be launched.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Former Bolivian President Evo Morales and allied unions begin march to La Paz to call for his presidential candidacy.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Canada Housing Starts (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ CPI Median (August)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (August)

· USA Retail Sales (August)/ Redbook (September/14)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Capacity Utilization (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)/ Business Inventories (July)/ Fed Logan Speech/ NAHB Housing Market Index (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/13)/ International Monetary Market (IMM) Date

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Singapore Non-Oil Exports (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Unemployment Rate Final Q2

· Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Japan Tertiary Industry Index (July)

· India WPI Food & Fuel Index (August)/ WPI Inflation (August)/ WPI Manufacturing (August)

· New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (September/17)

· Australia RBA Jones Speech

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will announce plans for the make-up of her next commission in the European Parliament.

· The European Parliament will hold its first plenary session since the summer break (its second since EU elections in June) through September 19. They are expected to debate and vote on a resolution on Venezuela and the recent fraudulent elections.

· Moldova will host a ministerial conference within the Moldova Partnership Platform to support the country's European integration. This is being done in conjunction with the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) making a pre-electoral visit to Moldova through September 18 to assess the country's political climate.

· Milan Fashion Week begins. Derek Zoolander will not be there.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives opening remark at the Supervisory Culture Conference organized by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates on a panel entitled Culture and Supervisory Risk Tolerance" at Supervisory Culture Conference organized by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates on a panel Participation entitled "Supervisory Effectiveness" at Supervisory Culture Conference organized by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (September)

· Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (September)/ ZEW Current Conditions (September)

· Belarus GDP (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Current Account Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Consumer Confidence Q3

Wednesday, September 18, 2024

Global

· The UN General Assembly will hold a special session, vote on Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories. It is expected they will vote to call on Israel to end military action in Gaza and withdraw. The resolution is expected to call Israel’s actions there as “unlawful.”

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA).

· The G20 Research and Innovation Ministerial meeting will be held in Manaus, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· New York City will hold its Inaugural National Urban Rat Summit on combatting rat infestations.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meets to discuss interest rates. Fed Chair Powell will host a press conference afterward at 2:30 p.m. EST.

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/13)/ Building Permits Prel (August)/ Housing Starts (August)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (September/13)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (July)/ Foreign Bond Investment (July)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (July)

· Mexico Aggregate Demand Q2/ Private Spending Q2

· Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (July)/ BoC Summary of Deliberations

· Colombia ISE Economic Activity (July)

· Argentina GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Central Bank of Brazil Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· India's Jammu and Kashmir holds local elections , marking the Himalayan region's first polls in a decade and five years after New Delhi yanked its special autonomy status. The vote will be held over several phases with results expected early next month.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Westpac Consumer Confidence Q3/ Current Account Q2

· Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Machinery Orders (July)

· Australia Westpac Leading Index (August)

· Indonesia Loan Growth (August)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate (September)

· India M3 Money Supply (September/06)

· Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Services PMI (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets International Committee of the Red Cross President Mirjana Spoljaric in Moscow. Spoljaric will be attending the 4th Eurasian Women’s Forum being held in Moscow.

· Swedish Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard will make her first foreign visit to Turkey since Turkey allowed Sweden to join NATO.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives opening remarks at the Supervision Innovators Conference 2024 "Technology and banking supervision connected" organized by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives a speech on "The future of European banking supervision - connecting people and technology" at Supervision Innovators Conference 2024 "Technology and banking supervision connected" organized by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Great Britain Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI Output (August)/ PPI Input (August)/ Retail Price Index (August)

· Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)

· Euro Area ECB Buch Speech/ Inflation Rate Final (August)/ Construction Output (July)/ CPI Final (August)/ ECB McCaul Speech

· Ireland Residential Property Prices (July)

· Russia PPI (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Oman M2 Money Supply (July)/ Total Credit (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Africa Aerospace and Defence (AAD) Begins in Centurion, South Africa.

· significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Rate (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

· Ghana GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August)

Thursday, September 19, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East (Gaza and Israeli settlements).

· G7 Culture Ministers meet Positano, Italy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Wisconsin starts mailing ballots to voters who requested them.

· Colombia’s Workers Central Union will hold protests in Bogota in support of President Gustavo Petro’s economic and social policies.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA Current Account Q2/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/14)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (September)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (September)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (September)/ Philly Fed Employment (September)/ Philly Fed New Orders (September)/ Philly Fed Prices Paid (September)/ Existing Home Sales (August)/ CB Leading Index (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September/13)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/18)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/18)

· Colombia Balance of Trade (July)/ Imports (July)

· Argentina Balance of Trade (August)/ Unemployment Rate Q2

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand GDP Growth Rate Q2

· The Bank of Japan meets to decide interest rates.

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (September/14)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/14)

· Australia Employment Change (August)/ Participation Rate (August)

· Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (August)

· Taiwan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· China's Commerce Minister Wang Wentao holds talks with EU's Valdis Dombrovskis on EV tariffs in Brussels.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Transportation Ministers in Budapest, Hungary through September 20.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen will participate in a press conference with Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, on support to Ukraine’s energy security for the coming winter. Later, she will host a working lunch with the leaders of the six Western Balkan partners.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The Bank of England meets to discuss and decide interest rates.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in an exchange of views on "Current aspects of monetary policy" with Association of German Banks (Committee for Economic and Monetary Policy) in Frankfurt, Germany. Later, she chairs a session entitled “Jean Monnet Lecture” at the 9th ECB Annual Research Conference in Frankfurt.

· European Union New Car Registrations (August)

· Euro Area Current Account (July)

· Switzerland Balance of Trade (August)/ SECO Economic Forecasts

· Poland Corporate Sector Wages (August)/ Employment Growth (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ PPI (August)

· Italy Current Account (July)

· Serbia Current Account (July)

· Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending & Borrowing Rate (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/13)

· Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

· Slovakia Current Account (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Inflation Expectations (September)

· Qatar Inflation Rate (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Building Permits (July)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

· Angola Interest Rate Decision

· Kuwait Inflation Rate (August)

Friday, September 20, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).

· The UN’s Summit of the Future Action Days begins and runs through September 23 in New York. The theme is "#YouthLead for the Future: We believe in the promise of a better world for all".

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Minnesota and South Dakota start mail and in-person early voting; Virginia begins in-person early voting.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on "The Federal Reserve: It's More Than Just Interest Rates" before the Tulane University Freeman School of Business Lecture event in New Orleans, Louisiana.

· Canada New Housing Price Index (August)/ Retail Sales (July)/ PPI (August)/ Raw Materials Prices (August)

· USA Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/20)

· El Salvador Balance of Trade (August)

· Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

· Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (August)

· Argentina Leading Indicator (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Inflation Rate (August)/ BoJ Interest Rate Decision

· China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (September)

· New Zealand Credit Card Spending (August)

· Hong Kong Current Account Q2/ Inflation Rate (August)

· India Bank Loan Growth (September/06)/ Deposit Growth (September/06)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/13)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Czech Republic holds the first round of Senate elections.

· Today is the deadline for EU member states under excessive deficit procedure to issue their medium-term fiscal adjustment plans, which most countries are set to miss.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the 2024 Michel Camdessus Central Banking Lecture organized by the IMF in Washington, DC. She then participates in a conversation with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva at the IMF.

· Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Board Catherine Mann gives the keynote speech at the Central Bank Research Association, National Bank of Poland, and Bank of Lithuania 5th Biennial Conference entitled “Macroeconomic adjustments after large global shocks” in Lithuania.

· Bank of England Executive Director for Prudential Policy David Bailey gives a speech at the Building Societies Association entitled “Strong and Simple – Completing the Picture” in London.

· Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (September)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing (August)

· Germany PPI (August)

· France Business Confidence (September)

· Switzerland Current Account Q2

· Turkey Consumer Confidence (September)/ Central Government Debt (August)

· Greece Current Account (July)

· Italy Construction Output (June)/ Construction Output (July)

· Spain Balance of Trade (July)

· Slovenia Consumer Confidence (September)/ PPI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

· Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash (September)

· Slovakia Unemployment Rate (August)

· Russia Consumer Confidence Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Qatar M2 Money Supply (August)/ Total Credit Growth (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (August)

· Ghana PPI (August)

Saturday, September 21, 2024

Global

· The G20 Tourism Ministerial Meetings take place in Belem, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Joe Biden will host the Quad Summit in Wilmington, Delaware. The leaders of Australia, Japan, and India will gather to discuss security issues in the Indo-Pacific.

· Today is the federal deadline for all absentee ballots to be mailed to military and overseas voters. Eleven states will send out their mail-in ballots by this day, and North Carolina is expected to as well.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Sri Lanka holds Presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Oktoberfest begins in Munich, Germany and runs through October 6.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nigeria holds gubernatorial elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 22, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Thailand New Car Sales (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· In Germany, the state of Brandenburg holds state elections.

· Switzerland holds a referendum vote on initiative to strengthen biodiversity protection.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today in South Sudan is the deadline for dissolution of the transitional unity government ahead of possible December elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 9/14/24 Francis Kelly 9/14/24

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The Fed Backs Down on Bigger Bank Capital Standards Setting Up A Possible FDIC Vote This Week; Election Betting Gets Held Up Again, and FDIC Chair Gruenberg Refuses to Testify Before Congress

September 16 - 20, 2024

The coming week will be filled with lots of regulatory speeches, congressional hearings, and a good number of trade association conferences. However, the biggest event is likely to be the FDIC's Open Meeting, where they may vote on the much-criticized and now scaled-back bank capital requirements. In a major concession to lobbying by big banks and many members of Congress, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michael Barr announced last week that the Fed, OCC, and FDIC had negotiated a re-write, but it is unclear if all the details have been finalized among the three regulators.

The FDIC action comes as embattled FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg shockingly refused a request to testify before the House Financial Services Committee. Gruenberg, who has announced he will at some point step down from his role, allowing a toxic work environment and widespread sexual harassment as well as his own personal unprofessional behavior, was supposed to testify on September 19, but his staff informed the Committee he would not show up. As we have noted in previous updates, Gruenberg refuses to step down until a replacement is confirmed by the US Senate, which most seasoned observers believe will not happen until next year due to the elections and the Senate schedule – something Gruenberg clearly understands as he desperately clings to power.

Regarding Gruenberg's replacement, Senate Banking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is apparently looking to hold a committee confirmation vote for current CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero this week. But we know two senators are out of action this week for health reasons and believe the committee vote probably will not happen.

Also, election betting on financial exchanges was expected to begin this coming week. However, a federal appellate court halted the financial exchange Kalshi on Friday to review the situation more closely. The CFTCC had ruled against allowing such betting through derivative markets. However, a federal judge overturned the CFTC block Thursday, and Kalshi began to trade election betting contracts quickly, but they are now in limbo as the appellate court looks deeper into the matter. How long until they rule is anyone's guess. But it could come as early as this week.

Below is a listing of all the other significant regulatory-related events this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· Tuesday, September 17, 2:30 p.m. – The Senate Banking Committee’s Subcommittee on Financial Institutions and Consumer Protection holds a hearing entitled “Back to School: Shedding Light on Risks and Harm in the Private Student Lending and Servicing Market”

· Wednesday, September 18, 2:00 p.m. – The Senate Banking Committee’s Economic Policy Subcommittee will hold a hearing on the macroeconomic impacts of potential tax reform in 2025.

· Sometime During the Week of September 16 – TBD – Senate Banking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown (D-OH) may attempt to bring up for a committee vote the nomination of FDIC Chair-designate Christy Goldsmith Romero – along with several other nominations (an SEC Commissioner nomination, an insurance expert for the Financial Stability Oversight Council, and a nominee for Assistant Secretary of Treasury).

House of Representatives

· Wednesday, September 18, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology, and Inclusion will hold a hearing entitled “Dazed and Confused: Breaking Down the SEC’s Politicized Approach to Digital Assets.”

· Wednesday, September 18, 10:00 a.m. – The House Appropriations Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, and Related Agencies Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Oversight Hearing: Inspectors General of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, Department of Transportation, and the National Railroad Passenger Corporation."

· Wednesday, September 18, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions will hold a hearing entitled “Protecting Americans Savings: Examining the Economics of the Multi-Billion Dollar Romance Confidence Scam Industry.”

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Tuesday and Wednesday, September 17 & 18 – The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee meets to discuss the economy and interest rates. Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell will give a press release on the 18th at 2:00 p.m.

U.S. Treasury Department

· Monday, September 16, 1:30 p.m. – The Treasury Department holds a meeting of the Federal Advisory Committee on Insurance to discuss topics related to climate-related financial risk and the insurance sector, cyber insurance developments, and international insurance issues and to receive status updates from each of its subcommittees and from FIO on its activities and consider any new business.

· Tuesday, September 17, 3:45 p.m. – Treasury Undersecretary for Domestic Finance Nellie Liang will speak at the Georgetown Univeristy Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy in Washington, D.C..

· Thursday, September 19, 9:30 a.m. – The Treasury Department’s Community Development Financial Institutions Fund holds a meeting of the Community Development Advisory Board for a report from the CDFI Fund Director on the activities of the CDFI Fund and panel discussions related to the advisory board's subcommittees.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Wednesday, September 18, 10:00 a.m. – The SEC will hold an Open Meeting. The agenda is whether to amend Regulation NMS to “allow the minimum pricing increments for quoting of certain NMS stocks, reduce the access fee caps, and enhance the transparency of better priced order.”

· Thursday, September 19, 10:00 a.m. – the SEC’s Investor Advisory Committee meets at the SEC Headquarters. The committee will host two panels. The first is entitled “Investment Advice: A History and Update on Who is Required to Serve in Your Best Interest” and the second “Key Topics from Securities Litigation: Shareholder Proposals and “Tracing” in Section 11 Litigation.” The full agenda can be found HERE. And a full listing of the Advisory Committee members can be found HERE.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Tuesday, September 17, 10:30 a.m. – CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam to speak at Georgetown University’s Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy Financial Markets Quality 2024.

· Wednesday, September 18, 11:00 a.m. (CDT) – CFTC Commissioner Summer K. Mersinger will participate in the 2025 Outlook Panel at the Futures Industry Association’s Forum: Commodities 2024 in Houston, Texas.

· Friday, September 20, 10:00 a.m. – The CFTC will hold an Open Meeting to consider Final Guidance regarding the Listing of Voluntary Carbon Credit Derivative Contracts.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· Tuesday, September 17, 10:00 a.m. – The FDIC Board will hold an Open Meeting. The agenda includes a proposed rulemaking on Custodial Deposit Accounts as well as the FDIC’s final statement of Policy on Bank Merger Transactions.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· Thursday, September 19, 10:00 a.m. – The NCUA holds a board meeting.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· Thursday, September 19, 11:00 a.m. – The FTC will hold an Open Commission Meeting. The Commission will hear a staff presentation on the Social Media and Video Streaming Services 6(b) Orders and a staff presentation on the Rule on the Use of Consumer Reviews and Testimonials.

· Thursday, September 19, 1:00 p.m. – The FTC will hold an informal hearing on the Proposed Amendments to the Energy Labeling Rule.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· September 15 – 18, 2024 – SIFMA is holding its Ops2024 Conference in San Diego, California.

· September 18, 10:00 a.m. – The International Institute for Finance holds an online conference entitled “Energy Supply Ratio: Examining a New Climate Disclosure Metric.”

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Monday, September 16, 11:00 a.m. – The Wilson Center's Global Europe Program holds a discussion on "Cyprus Banks on the Frontline of Sanctions Compliance."

· September 17, 1:00 p.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a virtual discussion entitled “The Economic Danger of Revoking China’s Permanent Normal Trade Status.”

· Wednesday, September 18, 2:00 p.m. – The Brookings Institution is holding an event entitled “Mobilizing the Market: The Barriers to Financing a More Scalable Climate Response” Ethan Zindler, the Climate Counselor at the US Treasury Department, will give the keynote remarks.

· Thursday, September 19, 5:00 p.m. – The American Enterprise Institute will hold an event entitled “The Forgotten Solution to the Housing Crunch: A Premier of the AEI Housing Center’s Documentary on Light-Touch Density.”

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 9/13/24 Francis Kelly 9/13/24

The Global Week Ahead

Mexico’s Senate Holds Final Vote on Controversial Judicial Reform Bill; Trump and Harris Debate, and the ECB Makes A Tough Call on Interest Rates

September 9 - 13, 2024

Markets are nervously watching the Mexican government's legislative march toward making the judiciary an elected role rather than one that is appointed, from the Supreme Court on down. Only one other nation elects its Supreme Court—Bolivia—and it did not turn out very well. As the Economist reported this week, it's been a complete disaster, leading to a heavily politicized judiciary and several attempted coups.

Both the Canadian and US governments, via their ambassadors in Mexico City, have expressed their strong concerns, and businesses are worried contract law will become the domain of local politicians and drug cartels. Despite widespread protests in opposition to the measure, the Mexican Senate is expected to ratify the measure this week following the Mexican lower House passing it last week. The legislation is all part of outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's (AMLO) move to punish the Supreme Court for overturning several of his other highly controversial legislative efforts. Interestingly, there is a good chance the Supreme Court will rule the legislation itself is unconstitutional, which will set up a very tense political scenario in Mexico City (for an excellent brief on the situation, our friend Ryan Berg at the Center for Strategic and International Studies wrote a superb overview you can read HERE).

Also this week, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris will meet for their first (and perhaps only) presidential debate Tuesday night. The stakes could not be higher as most recent polling shows the two candidates locked neck-and-neck with two months to go before the elections.

Turning to the global economic radar screen this week, markets are cautiously watching the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday to see if the ECB lowers rates further or holds off as several EU countries – particularly Germany – struggle economically.

Also this week, US inflation figures for August are released, hopefully further solidifying market expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin lowering rates when they meet the following week (September 18). The debate has gotten a little heated this past week as to whether it would be a cut of 25 basis points or if the Fed would go big and cut 50 basis points. Also, this week, the University of Michigan consumer survey comes out Friday, and most economists expect it to tick up slightly.

Looking at what else is going on in Europe this week aside from the ECB meeting, the UK releases July GDP figures, which will be important as the UK Parliament begins debating contentious legislation to cut household fuel subsidies this week.

In Asia, China will have a big week, releasing inflation, trade, and overall economic activity figures—all coming after a recent report showing PMIs sagging. Also, this week, Japan will release its Economy Watchers Survey and PPI figures.

Below is what else we are watching closely around the world this coming week:

Sunday, September 8, 2024

Global

· The Paralympics’ closing ceremony is held in Paris.

· The World Nomad Games begin in Kazakhstan. Athletes compete in 21 different types of sports including Tug-of-War, Horseback Wrestling, Traditional Archery, Horseback Archery, Kok Boru (where horse riders from two teams compete to tear a goat’s carcass from the ground and break through the opposing team’s defenses and put it in the opponents goal), Mas-Wrestling (where two opponents sit opposite each other, resting their feet on a board between their feet, and pull on a stick. The one who pulls the stick or the other guy or both over the board wins), and more.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the deadline for Mexico’s government to present its 2025 budget proposal to Congress.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez begins an official visit to China through September 12.

· Mozambican President Filipe Jacinto Nyusi will make an official visit to Vietnam through September. 10. Additionally, Guinea-Bissau President Umaro Sissoco Embalo will also make a simultaneous visit.

· Pope Francis will continue his Asia and Oceania tour by visiting Papua New Guinea through September 8.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture and Fisheries Ministers in Budapest, Hungary through September 10. In addition to the informal meeting of the ministers, there will be a number of programs offering an insight into Hungarian culture and gastronomy. On the 8th of September ministers and their delegations will be welcomed with a Danube cruise and an opening dinner in the House of Music Hungary. The meeting will conclude on the September 10 with a kick-off debate on a farmer-focused post 2027 Common Agricultural Policy Towards a competitive, crisis-proof, sustainable, farmer-friendly and knowledge-based future EU agriculture at the Conference Hall of Várkert Bazaar.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 9, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the United Nations peacekeeping operations: Strengthening UN Peacekeeping: Reflections for the Future.

· The Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency hold board meetings in Vienna, Austria. Board discussions are expected to focus on verification and monitoring in Iran in light of United Nations Security Council resolution 2231 (2015); application of safeguards in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea; nuclear safety, security and safeguards in Ukraine; transfer of the nuclear materials in the context of AUKUS and its safeguards in all aspects under the NPT; application of IAEA safeguards in the Middle East; and the restoration of sovereign equality of Member States in the IAEA.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Congress returns from August recess.

· US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will meet with Vietnam’s Defense Minister Giang in Washington, D.C.

· In Bolivia, widespread protests are expected all week. Former President Evo Morales will be leading the efforts.

· Apple holds its annual media event to launch their new products, including a new iteration of the iPhone.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

· USA Wholesale Inventories (July)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)/ Consumer Credit Change (July)/ Used Car Prices (August)/ Total Vehicle Sales (August)

· Argentina Industrial Production (July)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· El Salvador Inflation Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· South Korea will co-host the Responsible AI in the Military Domain Summit in Seoul. Co-hosting will be Singapore, the Netherlands, Kenya, and the UK. Representatives from the militaries and governments of more than 90 countries are expected to attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Current Account (July)/ GDP Growth Annualized Final Q2

· Australia Building Permits Final (July)/ Private House Approvals Final (July)

· China Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI (August)

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (August)

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (August)

· Malaysia Retail Sales (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

· Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Pakistan Consumer Confidence (August)

· Kazakhstan PPI (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Former European Central Bank President and Prime Minister of Italy Mario Draghi presents report on Europe's competitiveness with European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen.

· Norway’s Prime Minister Jonas Gahr visits Beijing for meetings. The visit marks the 70th anniversary of bilateral ties between the two countries.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture and Fisheries Ministers through September 10 in Budapest, Hungary.

· European Commission Vice-President Margaritis Schinas will visit Armenia to take part in the launch of a visa liberalization dialogue with the European Union.

· NATO holds Steadfast Foxtrot 24 military exercises in Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in a fireside chat at the Barclays Global Financial Conference in New York.

· Ireland Construction PMI (August)/ Industrial Production (July)

· Romania Balance of Trade (July)

· Serbia Interest Rate Decision

· Hungary Budget Balance (August)

· Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Hezbollah commemorates slain commander Fuad Shukr 40 days after Israeli strike near Beirut.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Tanzania Inflation Rate (August)

· Mozambique Inflation Rate (August)

Tuesday, September 10, 2024

Global

· The 79th session of the U.N. General Assembly will begin.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Ukraine.

· National Security Advisors of the BRICS countries will meet in St. Petersburg, Russia to help plan for the BRICS+ Summit in Kazan, Russia in October.

· OPEC’s Monthly Oil Report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris will participate in their first presidential debate.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (August)/ Redbook (September/07)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/06)

· Brazil Inflation Rate (August)

· Canada BoC Macklem Speech

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· China's legislative Standing Committee will discuss various draft bills, including ones related to energy and anti-money laundering work, through September 13.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Manufacturing Sales Q2

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (September)/ NAB Business Confidence (August)

· Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

· China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Indonesia Retail Sales (July)/ Motorbike Sales (August)/ Car Sales (August)

· Malaysia Industrial Production (July)

· Japan Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (August)/ Machine Tool Orders (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The UK Parliament begins debate over proposed cuts to the winter fuel payments plan.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany Inflation Rate Final (August)

· Great Britain Unemployment Rate (July)/ Claimant Count Change (August)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (August)

· Hungary Inflation Rate (August)

· Slovakia Industrial Production (July)

· Spain Industrial Production (July)

· Turkey Industrial Production (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ Participation Rate (July)

· Italy Industrial Production (July)

· Slovenia Industrial Production (July)

· Greece Inflation Rate (August)

· Ukraine Inflation Rate (August)

· Belarus Inflation Rate (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Jordan holds parliamentary elections.

· Saudi Arabia hosts the Global Artificial Intelligence Summit (GAIN) in Riyadh. There will be more than 400 speakers, 20,000 participants with an expected 25 million online participants.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (July)

· Egypt Inflation Rate (August)

· Jordan Inflation Rate (August)

· Israel Consumer Confidence (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Manufacturing Production (July)

Wednesday, September 11, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on 1591 Committee (regarding the situation in the Sudan), followed by a briefing on 1591 Committee. They are expected to vote on whether to renew sanctions.

· G7 Labor Ministers meet through September 13 in Cagliari, Italy.

· The International Energy Administration publishes the lates monthly oil report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Mexico’s Senate is expected to vote on the highly controversial judicial reform bill. The lower House approved the bill on September 4. Demonstrations are expected across Mexico City in opposition to the measure.

· Microsoft will hold a cybersecurity summit in wake of CrowdStrike outage.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/06)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/06)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ CPI (August)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (September/06)

· Mexico Industrial Production (July)

· Argentina Inflation Rate (August)

· Ecuador Balance of Trade (July)

· Peru Balance of Trade (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· SEMI (the international semiconductor industry group) will host the Semicon Exhibition in New Delhi, India through September 13. The event is expected to draw more than 40,000 visitors and host more than 600 exhibitors.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (July)

· South Korea Unemployment Rate (August)

· Australia RBA Hunter Speech/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)

· Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Junko Nakagawa will give a speech in Akita, Japan.

· China Vehicle Sales (August)/ New Yuan Loans (August)/ M2 Money Supply (August)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (August)/ Total Social Financing (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· European Union President Ursula von der Leyden will announce the new EU Commissioners.

· There will be a pro-independence march today (Catalan Day) in Catalan, Spain.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates on a panel at the EUROFI Financial Forum in Budapest, Hungary.

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates on a panel discussion "Supervision and regulation – Followers or pacemakers in the "new world"? - Finding the future role of supervision and regulation" at BaFin Conference "SSM 2034 – an outlook" in Bonn, Germany.

· Romania Inflation Rate (August)

· Great Britain GDP (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July)/ Construction Output (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (August)

· Slovakia Construction Output (July)

· Turkey Retail Sales (July)

· Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Russia Balance of Trade (July)/ Inflation Rate (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Balance of Trade (April)/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Balance of Trade (June)

Thursday, September 12, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Yemen).

· The G20 Agriculture Ministers meet in Cuiaba, Brazil.

· The UN’s One Planet Network Forum 2024, scheduled for September 12-13 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, will focus on reducing inequalities and achieving just transitions through sustainable consumption and production, highlighting the role of the circular economy. The event will bring together stakeholders from diverse sectors to discuss key topics including green skills, sustainable cities, circular economies, and sustainable public procurement.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil Retail Sales (July)

· Canada Building Permits (July)

· USA Continuing Jobless Claims (August/31)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/07)/ PPI (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September/06)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/11)/ WASDE Report/ Monthly Budget Statement (August)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/11)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Paraguay Balance of Trade (August)

· Peru Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The 11th Xiangshan Forum begins in Beijing and runs through September 14. The high-level defense and security event brings together military leaders from around the world will attend to discuss the theme “Promoting Peace for a Shared Future.” More than 30 defense ministers are expected to attend.

· China’s International Fair for Trade in Services begins in Beijing and runs through September 16.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (August)/ Food Inflation (August)

· Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Naoki Tamura will give a speech in Okayama, Japan.

· Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Q3/ Foreign Bond Investment (September/07)/ PPI (August)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/07)

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (June)

· Hong Kong Industrial Production Q2

· India Industrial Production (July)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ Manufacturing Production (July)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (August)

· Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

The AI Regulation Forum begins in Brussels. Policymakers from around Europe and the world will gather to discuss how AI should be regulated and how best to comply with existing laws.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The Governing Council of the European Central Bank meets on interest rates in Frankfurt, Germany. ECB President Christine Lagarde holds a press conference after the meeting.

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates on a panel at the EUROFI Financial Forum in Budapest, Hungary.

· European Central Bank Board Member Kerstin af Jochnick participates on a panel at the EUROFI Financial Forum in Budapest, Hungary.

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates on a panel at the EUROFI Financial Forum in Budapest, Hungary.

· Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (August)/ BoE Breeden Speech

· Germany Wholesale Prices (August)/ Current Account (July)

· Spain Inflation Rate (August)

· Turkey Current Account (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/06)

· France IEA Oil Market Report

· Ireland Inflation Rate (August)

· Serbia Inflation Rate (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Oman Inflation Rate (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Expectations Q3/ Gold Production (July)/ Mining Production (July)

· Angola Wholesale Prices (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

Friday, September 13, 2024

Global

· G20 Digital Ministers meet in Maceio, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. President Joe Biden will hold a meeting at the White House with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade/ Export Prices (August)/ Import Prices (August)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations Prel (September)/ Michigan Current Conditions Prel (September)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel (September)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/13)

· Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (July)/ Business Confidence (September)

· Canada Capacity Utilization Q2/ Wholesale Sales Final (July)

· Colombia Consumer Confidence (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Import Prices (August)/ Export Prices (August)

· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (August)

· Singapore Unemployment Rate Final Q2

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (August)

· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (September)/ Capacity Utilization (July)/ Industrial Production Final (July)

· Sri Lanka GDP Growth Rate Q2

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/06)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Eurogroup will meet in Budapest, Hungary. They will discuss EU macroeconomic developments, get a debrief from the G7, and discuss the situation in Ukraine.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Economic and Financial Affairs Ministers in Budapest, Hungary through September 14. On Friday afternoon, EU ministers and central bank governors would discuss the issue of “sustainable financing of green transition”. The Secretary-General of OECD and the CEO of the Hungarian Government Debt Management Agency would provide presentations on how to bridge financing gap with innovative instruments, how to better mobilize household and other private savings when there is a need to enhance green transition and put public debt on a downward path simultaneously. The Saturday morning session will be devoted to “the effects of demographic changes on public debt sustainability”, where delegations will discuss debt sustainability risks in the context of aging societies and possible lines of action. This issue is a top priority for the Hungarian EU Presidency, as it put at risk the EU’s long-term economic prosperity due to shrinking working-age population and labor shortages. The discussion will be based on the contribution of the Brussels-based think tank, Bruegel. During the ministerial working lunch the Managing Director of the IMF will outline “the new financing opportunities in supporting low-income countries in their response to global challenges”.

· The NATO Military Committee Conference will begin in Prague, Czech Republic and run through September 15.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Romania Industrial Production (July)/ Current Account (July)

· Hungary Construction Output (July)/ Industrial Production Final (July)

· France Inflation Rate Final (August)

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (August)

· Euro Area Industrial Production (July)

· Greece Construction Output Q2

· Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

· Poland Balance of Trade (July)/ Current Account (July)

· Ukraine Balance of Trade (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ghana Inflation Rate (August)

· Ethiopia Inflation Rate (August)

Saturday, September 14, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China House Price Index (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ NBS Press Conference

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates in a fireside chat at the Open Day 2024 of Deutsche Bundesbank in Frankfurt, Germany.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 15, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua all celebrate their respective Independence Days today.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The 56th ASEAN Economic Ministers Meet (AEM) takes place in Vientiane, Laos.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China FDI (YTD) (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

· Euro Area ECB Buch Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (August) / Wholesale Prices (August)

· Israel Inflation Rate (August)/ M1 Money Supply (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Students in Nigeria will hold nationwide protests over rising fuel prices.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 9/7/24 Francis Kelly 9/7/24

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Moving to Full Throttle: Washington Ramps Up On Multiple Regulatory Fronts This Week

September 9 - 13, 2024

Congress returns to work this week, having been out of session since the end of July. The rest of Washington’s regulatory world is already buzzing with activity, and combined, there is a lot going on.

In the coming week, we will closely watch the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Financial Institutions hearing entitled “Transparency in Global Governance.” The hearing is aimed at how the Basel Committee, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), and other international organizations interact with US financial regulators and their influence on regulatory developments. The only problem is that these organizations are refusing to appear, infuriating Subcommittee Chair Representative Andy Barr (R-KY). At this point, we are not sure who will testify, and no one is listed on the Committee’s website.

Also on the Hill this week, the House Agriculture Committee is scheduling a closed-door hearing for members to get briefed and up-to-speed on “event contracts.” For those of you unfamiliar with event contracts, they are the ability for financial traders to put “contract” wagers on, well, everything. As Politico noted, it can be things as weird as what a movie’s Rotten Tomato scores will be.

Also this week, Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will speak at the Brookings Institution on the status of the Fed's Basel III regulatory initiative. Considering the proposal has come under withering criticism from banks and Congress (not to mention public doubts from Fed Chair Jay Powell and several Fed Governors) and has been intensely rewritten, Barr’s comments will be important.

SEC Chair Gary Gensler will give a speech and participate in a fireside chat at a Peterson Institute for International Economics event. The topics of the discussion seem likely to be wide-ranging.

Last week ended up being a bit busier than anyone expected. We would note that Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu gave an important speech at the Joint European Banking Authority and European Central Bank International Conference in Frankfurt, Germany (which was not added to his public calendar until the very last minute). In his remarks, Hsu said regulators should consider creating a process for officially designating which banks within the domestic financial system are important – DSIBs. Hsu pointed out some other countries already do this and suggested the US follow suit.

Also, last week, a Federal Court blocked the CFTC’s rejection of US election betting markets – talk about good timing for all you election junkies out there!

Below is what else is happening in the regulatory world in Washington this week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· The Senate is out of session for the month of August and returns to work on September 9.

House of Representatives

· TBD – The House Agriculture Committee will hold a closed-door briefing for members on the topic of event contracts (which are financial products allowing traders to wager on virtually anything). No date or time has been released yet.

· Tuesday, September 10, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology, and Inclusion will hold a hearing entitled “Decoding DeFi: Breaking Down the Future of Decentralized Finance.”

· Tuesday, September 10, 10:30 a.m. – The House Education and Workforce Committee holds a hearing entitled “ERISA’s 50th Anniversary: The Value of Employer-Sponsored Health Benefits”

· Tuesday, September 10, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations holds a hearing entitled “The Fall of ESG: Scrutinizing the Failed Use of Environmental, Social, & Governance Standards and the Influence of Proxy Advisors.”

· Wednesday, September 11, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Financial Institutions and Monetary Policy Subcommittee holds a hearing entitled “Transparency in Global Governance”

· Wednesday, September 11, 10:00 a.m. – The House Agriculture Committee holds a hearing entitled “Severe Food Distribution Shortages in Tribal and Elderly Communities.”

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Tuesday, September 10, 11:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will speak at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C. at an event entitled “The Basel III Endgame: A Conversation with Michael Barr.”

U.S. Treasury Department

· Monday, September 9, 1:00 p.m. – The Treasury Department holds a meeting of the Treasury Advisory Committee on Racial Equity for opening remarks from TACRE Chair Michael Nutter, an overview of the work conducted by the TACRE subcommittees since the April 18, 2024, TACRE meeting, a possible vote on recommendations to make to the Treasury Department and briefings from government officials from the Treasury Department and the Internal Revenue Service.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Monday, September 9, 10:00 a.m. – The SEC holds an Open Meeting to consider he Commission will consider whether to approve a new quality control standard, QC 1000, A Firm’s System of Quality Control, and related amendments, as adopted by the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board.

· Tuesday, September 10, 9:30 a.m. – SEC Chair Gary Gensler will give remarks at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Following his speech, he will participate in a fireside chat with Roger Ferguson, former Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve.

· Thursday, September 12, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· Monday, September 9, 12:30 p.m. – CFPB Director Rohit Chopra speaks at an event hosted by Intercontinental Exchange and the National Housing Conference.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency

· Tuesday, September 10 – 11 – The FHFA holds a meeting of the Federal Advisory Committee on Affordable, Equitable, and Sustainable Housing to advise FHFA in the exercise of its oversight functions regarding affordable, equitable, and sustainable housing, including but not limited to, affordable, equitable, and sustainable housing needs, barriers to access, barriers to long-term sustainability, and any regulatory, guidance, or policy changes that may be necessary or beneficial to expand such housing.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

· Thursday, September 12, 10:00 a.m. – The FCA holds a meeting of the quarterly report on economic conditions and Farm Credit System condition and performance.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Thursday, September 12: The American Bankers Association will hold a virtual conference entitled “Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Summit.”

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Monday, September 9, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds an event entitled “Do EU regulations unduly penalize securitization?” Emmanuelle Assouan, Director General for Financial Stability and Operations, Bank of France, will speak.

· Tuesday, September 9, 1:00 p.m. – The Farm Foundation holds a discussion on "The Agricultural Platforms of the Candidates for President of the United States."

· Tuesday, September 10, 9:30 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics hosts SEC Chair Gary Gensler for a speech and fireside chat.

· Thursday, September 12, 9:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance holds an online event entitled “Policy Implications of the 2024 U.S. Elections: Fiscal and Growth Outlooks.”

· Thursday, September 12, 9:30 a.m. – The Cato Institute holds a conference entitled “Financial Privacy Under Fire: Protecting and Restoring Americans’ Rights’ in Washington, D.C.

· Thursday, September 12, 10:00 a.m. – The Brookings Institution holds a discussion on "The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017: Lessons learned and the debate ahead.”

· Thursday, September 12, 2:00 p.m. – The Bipartisan Policy holds a Leaders Speaker Series with former Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Mark Calabria.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 9/6/24 Francis Kelly 9/6/24

The Global Week Ahead

Summer is Over, and A Hectic Autumn Begins: US Elections Heat Up, China Ramps Up Relations with Africa, Germany’s Historic Elections, And What US Job Figures Will Tell Markets

September 1 - 8, 2024

Summer is now over (per the UK Meteorological calendar, which says September 1 is the first day of Autumn, and we are entering a hectic and likely historic autumn. The US presidential elections loom a little over two months away (the first presidential debate between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is scheduled for September 10).

But in the coming week, there will be some very significant events markets will watch closely. Beijing will be bustling this coming week as China hosts the China-Africa Forum. Leaders from across Africa will attend the meeting to discuss climate issues, increased trade opportunities, and likely new loans from China to many of the attending countries. The meeting is all part of Beijing's efforts to expand its influence across the continent while securing critical mineral rights and increased trade opportunities.

But that is not all that is happening in Beijing this week. UK Foreign Minister David Lammy is expected to visit for meetings with China's top diplomat, Wang Yi, and a possible meeting with President Xi Jinping. Additionally, Chief US Climate Advisor to President Biden, John Podesta, will visit to discuss cementing new climate goals. At the same time, US Undersecretary of Commerce for International Trade, Marisa Lago, will travel to Tianjin, China for meetings with her counterpart on a wide range of issues stressing the US-China relationship. Both the Podesta and Lago meetings come on the heal of US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan's meeting with President Xi and Foreign Minister Wang last week.

The big event in Europe this week is the state elections held today in Germany (Sunday) – the impact of which is shaking most of the rest of Europe and beyond. The states of Saxony and Thuringia held votes, and it appears the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) Party has won in Thuringia – the first time a far-right party has won a state poll since World War II. The AfD took second place in Saxony – but just by a little more than a percentage point – to the Christian Democrat Party. Additionally, the far-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) showed growing strength in both elections, coming in third in both, while the ruling SPD Party came in a very weak fourth place.

Both the AfD and the BSW strongly oppose military and financial aid to Ukraine, and both have expressed sympathy for Russian President Vladimir Putin's views on the War. However, neither party is expected to win enough seats to form a ruling coalition. And virtually no other party wants to create a coalition with the AfD due to their neo-Nazi leanings.

Also, this week in Europe, former Italian Prime Minister and European Central Bank Chief Mario Draghi will meet with EU Parliamentary leaders to discuss a forthcoming "landmark" report on EU competitiveness. Last year, EU President Ursula von der Leyen asked Draghi to conduct the study and recommend how the EU can better compete globally. The report is expected to make a number of seismic recommendations, primarily aimed at filling the productivity gap between the EU, the US, and China.

Also this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin travels to Mongolia to commemorate the joint Soviet-Mongolian defeat of Japan in World War II. But the real significance of the trip is that Mongolia is a signatory of the International Criminal Court, which has a warrant out for Putin's arrest since 2023 for war crimes. This is Putin's first visit to an ICC signatory nation since he directed the invasion of Ukraine. Mongolia has no intention of honoring that signature or of arresting Putin, a blow to the ICC's stature.

Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen for the coming week, markets are looking at the US jobs report (non-farm payrolls) being released this coming Friday (will they be softer or more robust than expected, and will that, in turn, lead to a larger rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this month?). Also this week, the Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book, and the Bank of Canada meets to decide interest rates.

Moving to Asia, China releases PMIs and the Caixin indexes, while Japan releases closely watched wage figures, and Australia releases second-quarter GDP figures.

In Europe, markets will closely follow the EU Parliament's reception of the Draghi reported above. Meanwhile, Germany will release closely watched industrial production and trade balance figures as well as factory orders—all critical indicators of whether the German economy is beginning to recover or is still struggling.

Below are the other key events around the world we are watching closely:

Sunday, September 1, 2024

Global

· Slovenia assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of September.

· UN General-Secretary Antonio Guterres visits Singapore for meetings. He will then travel to China to participate in the China-Africa Forum.

· Today is the first day of Autumn per the UK Met Meteorological calendar.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Chief US Climate Advisor to President Biden, John Podesta, will travel to China for meetings on how to advance further mutual climate agreements.

· Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador gives an annual speech on the executive branch’s accomplishments, similar to a State of the Nation address. President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum will be sworn into office on October 1. Also, Mexican students are expected to turn out in large numbers to protest the President’s proposed judicial reform effort. The lower chamber of Congress, sworn into office today, begins debate on the measure today.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Indonesia hosts the 2nd Annual Indonesia-Africa Forum in Bali. Indonesian President Joko Widodo and more than 30 African leaders will meet for three days to discuss how to deepen political and economic ties, build stronger supply chains and healthcare systems.

· Azerbaijan holds parliamentary elections.

· Today is Uzbekistan Independence Day, celebrating when the country was able to declare its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

· Today is Constitution Day in Kazakhstan.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade AUG

· Australia CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM AUG

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· In Germany, state elections will be held in Saxony and Thuringia. The far-right AfD Party is expected to win a significant share and possibly a majority of the votes.

· UK Foreign Minister David Lammy will travel to Beijing for meetings to discuss trade and security issues.

· Czechia will hold regional elections and the election of one-third of the Senate.

· The GLOBSEC Forum 2024 will be held in Prague, Czechia.

· Border Force agents at Heathrow Airport are expected to go on strike through September 3.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 2, 2024

Global

· Pope Francis begins a four-country Asia visit over twelve days and participates in more than 40 events. Improving the Catholic-Muslim dialogue and climate change is at his agenda. He will begin the trip to Indonesia, then travel to Papua New Guinea, East Timor, and Singapore.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris and President Joe Biden hold a campaign event in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

· Bolivia is bracing for widespread national protests over the current economic crisis and shortage of dollars and fuel.

· Today is Labor Day in the US and Canada. Financial markets and banks, as well as the US and Canadian governments, are closed.

· Today is the 79th Anniversary of “VJ Day” when Japanese Foreign Minister Mamoru Shigemitsu and General Yoshijiro Umezu, on board the American warship the U.S.S. Missouri, signed the Potsdam Declaration, a document of surrender that the Allies had drawn up.

Economic Reports/Events

· Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ Business Confidence (August)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (July)

· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Peru Inflation Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· South African President Cyril Ramaphosa will begin a state visit to China that runs through September 5. Ramaphosa is also going to attend the Forum on China-Africa (Focac). China is South Africa’s largest trading partner in Africa with more than $34 billion in exports to South Africa in 2023. South Africa exported more than $12 billion to China in 2023.

· South Korea will conduct a drill in Incheon on how to respond to “Disease X,” an unknown pathogen when it is detected and how to respond.

· The BIMSTEC Summit (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) begins in Bangkok, Thailand and runs through September 4.

· Today is Independence Day in Vietnam, marking the day the country was independent from France in 1945. Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (August)/ Building Permits (July)/ Company Gross Profits Q2/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (August)/ Business Inventories Q2/ Private House Approvals Prel (July)/ Commodity Prices (August)

· Japan Capital Spending Q2/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (August)

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)/ Inflation Rate (August)

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Business Confidence (August)

· China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (August)

· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (August)

· Kazakhstan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

· Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Pakistan Consumer Confidence (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ Wholesale Prices (August)

· Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

French President Emmanual Macron is expected to meet with former Socialist Party official Bernard Cazeneuve about possibly serving as the next French Prime Minister. Macron has been struggling to form a new government after recent elections.
There will be an Informal Meeting of the EU General Affairs Council in Budapest, Hungary, through September 3. The agenda will address two priorities of the Hungarian Presidency – which are interlinked: boosting the EU’s competitiveness and tackling demographic challenges. A plenary session will examine the possibilities of enhancing competitiveness and the rule of law through better law-making, followed by breakout sessions on the different aspects of competitiveness. Ministers will discuss demographic challenges during their working lunch.
The Bled Strategic Forum begins in Bled, Slovenia, and runs through September 3. EU President Ursula von der Leyen will speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Average Weekly Earnings Q2/ Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ GNP Q2

· Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Hungary Balance of Trade Final (June)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Switzerland Retail Sales (July)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Spain Tourist Arrivals (July)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)/ New Car Sales (August)

· Turkey GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ PPI (July)/ New Car Registrations (August)

· France HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (August)

· Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (August)

· Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (August)

· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (August)

· Serbia GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Israel’s largest labor union, the Histadrut Labor Federation, has called for a one-day strike to protest the government’s failure to secure a cease-fire in Gaza and the failure to get the hostages back.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Qatar M2 Money Supply (July)

· Kuwait M2 Money Supply (July)/ Private Bank Lending (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Africa Food Systems Summit begins in Kigali, Rwanda and runs through September 6.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (August)

· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (August)

Tuesday, September 3, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Mexico Unemployment Rate (July)/ Gross Fixed Investment (June)

· USA Redbook (August/31)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (August)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (August)/ Construction Spending (July)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (August)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (August)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (September)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (August)/ Total Vehicle Sales (August)

· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Paraguay Inflation Rate (August)

· Chile Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Mongolia to mark the 85th anniversary of the victory of Soviet and Mongolian forces over Japan in World War II. This is a significant trip as Mongolia is a signatory to the International Criminal Court (ICC) which has a warrant out for the arrest of Putin for war crimes.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Exports/ Imports/ Terms of Trade Q2/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (September/03)

· South Korea Inflation Rate (August)

· Australia Current Account Q2/ Net Exports Contribution to GDP Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Former Volkswagen CEO Martin Winterkorn goes on trial for his role in the “Dieselgate” scandal.

· Russia will host the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok through September 6. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and several other Asian leaders ae expected to attend.

· The 32nd International Defense Industry Exhibition begins in Kielce, Poland. Approximately 800 defense industry representatives will gather to exhibit the latest in military hardware.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank Single Supervisory Mechanism and he European Banking Authority are jointly hosting a conference in Frankfurt looking at supervisory convergence. The conference runs through September 4. Today, a host of international bank regulators and central bankers are speaking including Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu, Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden, European Central Bank Board Members Kerstin Jochnick, Elizabeth McCaul, IMF Deputy Director for Monetary and Capital Markets Marina Moretti, ohn Berrigan, Director General for Financial Stability, Financial Services and Capital Markets Union, European Commission, Jennifer Burns, Deputy Director, Division of Supervision & Regulation, Federal Reserve Board, Agustín Carstens, General Manager of the Bank of International Settlements.

· Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (August)

· Romania PPI (July)

· Hungary GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

· Switzerland Inflation Rate (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· France Budget Balance (July)

· Slovakia Real Wages Q2

· Spain Unemployment Change (August)/ Consumer Confidence (July)

· Turkey Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (August)

· Qatar Financial Centre PMI (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye will travel to China for a state visit through September 6.

· The World Congress on Industrial Biotechnology will convene in Harare, Zimbabwe.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt S&P Global PMI (August)

· South Africa GDP Growth Rate Q2

Wednesday, September 4, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Negotiators from the European Union and the Mercosur trade bloc of South American countries will meet in Brasilia to resume free trade negotiations through September 6.

· The US will host the fifth meeting of the U.S.-South Korea Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group in Washington, DC.

· In Bolivia, the Movement Towards Socialism National Congress will meet. Former President Evo Morales is expected to lay out his strategy to become the next president.

· New York Fashion Week for the Spring/Summer 2025 season begins. Will Derek Zoolander be there? Or Hansel? He’s so hot right now.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/30)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ JOLTs Job Openings (July)/ Factory Orders (July)/ Fed Beige Book/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/30)

· Brazil Industrial Production (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (August)

· Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and press conference/Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

· Uruguay Inflation Rate (August)

· Colombia PPI (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Singapore through September 5.

· The Forum on China-Africa Cooperation begins in Beijing and runs through September 6. This is the largest diplomatic event China has held in recent years. African leaders normally sign a number of large loan agreements with Beijing at this event, but this year may be different as China’s economy struggles and the government is expected to cut back the size of loans.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Australia Ai Group Industry/ Construction/ Manufacturing Index (August)/ Judo Bank Services/ Composite PMI Final (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q2/ GDP Chain Price Index Q2/ GDP Final Consumption Q2/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (August)

· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (August)

· Japan Jibun Bank Services/ Composite PMI Final (August)

· Singapore S&P Global PMI (August)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· China Caixin Services/ Composite PMI (August)

· India HSBC Services/ Composite PMI Final (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August/23)

· Kazakhstan S&P Global Services PMI (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Former Italian Prime Minister and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will give an initial presentation of his landmark report on EU competitiveness to senior members of the various political groups of the European Parliament. The report is likely to propose “a radical change” for EU’s economy. More than 400 pages long, the report looks at the energy, defense, and other major sectors and how they can become more globally competitive. A formal presentation of the report will take place in the latter half of September.

· UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer takes part in first Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) following the end of the summer recess. The UK Parliament came back into session on Monday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will give a keynote speech at the Joint European Banking Authority & European Central Bank international conference "Addressing supervisory challenges through enhanced cooperation" in Frankfurt.

· Ireland AIB Services PMI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

· Russia S&P Global Services/ Composite PMI (August)

· Spain HCOB Services/ Composite PMI (August)

· Italy HCOB Services/ Composite PMI (August)

· France HCOB Services/ Composite PMI (August)

· Germany HCOB Services/ Composite PMI (August)

· Euro Area HCOB Services/ Composite PMI (August)/ PPI (July)

· Slovenia Balance of Trade (July)

· Great Britain S&P Global Composite PMI Final (August)

· Poland Interest Rate Decision (September)

· Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Prel (August)/ Auto Production & Sales (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi will meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara, Turkey. The two leaders are expected to discuss the situation in Gaza and expansion of trade.

Economic Reports/Events –

· United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (August)

· Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (August)

· Israel Tourist Arrivals (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The World Conference on Soil, Water, Energy and Air will take place in Victoria, Seychelles.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (August)

· South Africa S&P Global PMI (August)/ Business Confidence Q3

· Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (August)

· Ghana S&P Global PMI (August)

Thursday, September 5, 202

Global

· In Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, the Fifth Global Conference on Strengthening Synergies between the Paris Agreement on Climate Change and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development: Building a Just World and a Sustainable Planet will be held through September 6. The Conference is being co-convened by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat, and hosted by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The tax fraud trial of Hunter Biden, President Biden’s son, begins in Los Angeles, California.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA Challenger Job Cuts (August)/ ADP Employment Change (August)/ Initial Jobless Claims (August/31)/ S&P Global Services/ Composite PMI (August)/ ISM Services PMI (August)/ EIA Natural Gas & Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (August/30)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/04)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/04)

· Canada Labor Productivity Q2/ S&P Global Services/ Composite PMI (August)

· Ecuador Inflation Rate (August)

· Colombia Exports (July)

· Brazil Car Production (August)/ New Car Registrations (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In Perth, Australia, Japan and Australia hold a 2-plus-2 defense and foreign ministers’ meetings. Japan's Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa and Defense Minister Minoru Kihara will meet with Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Defense Minister Richard Marles in the first 2-plus-2 meeting since late 2022 in Tokyo. The primary focus of the meetings is China’s growing military expansion in the Indo-Pacific.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

· Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Hajime Takata gives a speech to local business leaders in in Ishikawa, Japan/ Japan Average Cash Earnings (July)/ Overtime Pay (July)/ Foreign Bond Investment (August/31)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August/31)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Philippines Inflation Rate (August)

· Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock will give a speech at the Anika Foundation in Sydney, Australia/Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

· Thailand Inflation Rate (August)

· Singapore Retail Sales (July)

· Malaysia Interest Rate Decision

· Taiwan Inflation Rate (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU ministers responsible for cohesion policy in Budapest, Hungary through September 6. The agenda, according to the Hungarian government, which is chairing the EU through December, is to hold a high-level debate on the Policy's role in promoting competitiveness and employment, and effectively addressing demographic challenges.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen will participate in a fireside chat at Handelsblatt Banking Summit 2024 "Navigating the Storm: Banking Amid Interest Rate Changes, Real Estate Crises, and Geopolitical Uncertainty” in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (August)

· Germany Factory Orders (July)/ New Car Registrations (August)

· Romania Retail Sales (July)

· Hungary Balance of Trade Prel (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

· Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ Retail Sales (July)

· Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

· France HCOB Construction PMI (August)/ New Car Registrations (July)

· Germany HCOB Construction PMI (August)

· Italy HCOB Construction PMI (August)

· Great Britain New Car Sales (August)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (August)

· Serbia PPI (August)

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/30)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Jordan PPI (July)

· Israel Business Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Current Account Q2

· Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, September 6, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will give a speech at the University of Notre Dame’s Department of Economics.

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to speak before the C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics organized by the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

· Chile Inflation Rate (August)

· Mexico Auto Exports (August)/ Auto Production (August)

· Canada Unemployment Rate (August)/ Employment Change (August)/ Participation Rate (August)/ Ivey PMI s.a (August)

· USA Unemployment Rate (August)/ Participation Rate (August)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/06)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (August)

· Colombia Inflation Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is expected to travel to Seoul, South Korea for meetings with President Yook Suk Yeol. It will be one of Kishada’s last foreign trips before he steps down from office. Bilateral relations between Japan and South Korea have warmed up considerably since the resolution this past March between the two countries over how to compensate Koreans who were forced to labor for Japanese occupation forces during World War II.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Current Account (July)

· Japan Household Spending (July)/ Coincident Index Prel (July)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (July)

· Philippines Unemployment Rate (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Australia Home Loans (July)/ Investment Lending for Homes (July)

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· India Bank Loan Growth (August/23)/ Deposit Growth (August/23)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/30)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Ukraine Defense Contact Group will meet at Ramstein Airbase in Ramstein, Germany. Approximately 50 countries will be represented at the meeting chaired by US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. The focus of the meeting will be to further coordinate aid as well as find ways to accelerate military aid to Ukraine.

· The 50th European House-Ambrosetti Conference takes place through September 7 in Milan, Italy. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban will speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives a keynote speech at the ESCB Legal Conference 2024 (a virtual event).

· France Non-Farm Payrolls Q2/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Current Account (July)

· Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Industrial Production (July)

· Romania GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est Q2

· Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (August)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (August)

· Hungary Industrial Production Prel (July)/ Budget Balance (August)

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (July)

· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Italy Retail Sales (July)

· Euro Area GDP Growth Rate 3rd Est Q2/ Employment Change Final Q2

· Greece Balance of Trade (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Ireland Construction Output Q2

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ Vehicle Sales (August)

· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Swaziland Independence Day, marking the day the country was granted independence from the UK in 1968.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Saturday, September 7, 2024

Global

· The 13th BRICS Trade Union Forum will occur in Sochi, Russia. The meeting brings together the leaders of the major trade unions of the respective BRIC member nations to better coordinate amongst themselves on worker-related issues.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Undersecretary of Commerce for International Trade Marisa Lago will travel to Tianjin, China, for a meeting with China’s Vice Minister Wang Shouwen. They are expected to discuss a wide range of topics, including US tariffs on China. The meeting will follow the recent visit of US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan to Beijing.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez will visit Beijing and Shanghai for meetings through September 12. Sanchez, who has been plagued with corruption charges against him and his wife, is expected to discuss ongoing trade disputes between the EU and China, which have hit Spain in the areas of pork products, dairy, and brandy exports.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Algeria holds presidential elections. Incumbent President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, who is not popular among the electorate, faces two weak challengers and is expected to win in a landslide.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 8, 2024

Global

The Paralympics’ closing ceremony is held in Paris.
The World Nomad Games begin in Kazakhstan. Athletes compete in 21 different types of sports, including Tug-of-War, Horseback Wrestling, Traditional Archery, Horseback Archery, Kok Boru (where horse riders from two teams compete to tear a goat’s carcass from the ground and break through the opposing team’s defenses and put it in the opponents goal), Mas-Wrestling (where two opponents sit opposite each other, resting their feet on a board between their feet, and pull on a stick. The one who pulls the stick or the other guy or both over the board wins), and more.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the deadline for Mexico’s government to present its 2025 budget proposal to Congress.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture and Fisheries Ministers in Budapest, Hungary through September 10. In addition to the informal meeting of the ministers, there will be a number of programs offering an insight into Hungarian culture and gastronomy. On the 8th of September ministers and their delegations will be welcomed with a Danube cruise and an opening dinner in the House of Music Hungary. The meeting will conclude on the September 10 with a kick-off debate on a farmer-focused post 2027 Common Agricultural Policy Towards a competitive, crisis-proof, sustainable, farmer-friendly and knowledge-based future EU agriculture at the Conference Hall of Várkert Bazaar.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 8/30/24 Francis Kelly 8/30/24

The U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

September 2 - 6, 2024

Washington Gets Back to Work… Sort Of…

And What is Going on at the FDIC?

Monday is Labor Day, the last day of summer, and the virtual starter gun is being fired for what will be a busy and, at times, wild autumn in Washington. Schools are back in session, vacation is over, and Washington is back to work (except Congress, which gets back September 9th).

There really is not anything of note on the regulatory agenda this week—traditionally, this is the week everyone in Washington uses to get back in the groove of work and prep for the onslaught of regulatory meetings and rule-making, lawsuits, legislation, and of course, the November elections.

This past week, the one big event of note was yet another blow-up at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) when FDIC Board Member Jonathan McKernan released a memo blasting the Democratic members of the board—including Chair Marty Gruenberg—for how they intend to move forward in investigating senior FDIC officials for creating and maintaining a toxic workplace, including allegations against Gruenberg. In a closed-door meeting this past Wednesday, the board voted along partisan lines on how the investigation will be conducted.

McKernan said that what was voted on was a “convoluted and complicated process” that limits the information available to outside investigators. However, the public cannot judge for themselves because the board voted to keep the resolution secret and will not publish it.

To be clear as to the extent of the crisis at the FDIC caused by Gruenberg, it is worth reviewing the facts of the situation: Gruenberg, who was cited by an outside review conducted by the law firm Cleary Gottlieb as leading and allowing a highly toxic workplace at the FDIC for years (and apparently is still under investigation in some way) refuses to resign and is allowed to vote on how he should be investigated. The majority of the FDIC board also refuses to allow the public to see the resolution they voted on describing how investigations will be conducted. And Gruenberg will almost assuredly be sitting in the chair for the rest of the year because he knows, and everyone else knows, his successor will almost assuredly not be confirmed by the Senate until the spring of 2025. How the once mighty FDIC has fallen.

As we started this week’s note by saying, the regulators are not conducting much public business. The SEC has a closed meeting scheduled, and one Fed speech has been scheduled.

We hope you enjoy the week – it is going to get very busy the following week and months to come:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· The Senate is out of session for the month of August and returns to work on September 9.

House of Representatives

· The House is out of session for the month of August and returns to work on September 9.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Friday, September 6, 11:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the University of Notre Dame Department of Economics in South Bend, Indiana.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Thursday, September 5, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· Thursday, September 4, 11:00 a.m. – The FTC holds closing arguments before the Administrative Law Judge re: Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Please let us know if you have any questions or want to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 8/30/24 Francis Kelly 8/30/24

The Global Week Ahead

August 25 - September 1, 2024

In Focus: Still Holding Out Hope for a Gaza Cease Fire; US National Security Advisor Sullivan Heads to China for High-Level Talks; Mexico’s Judges Protest Against Sweeping Reforms, and Inflation Data Released Before the Federal Reserve’s Next Meeting

Summer comes to an end this week, and we are all bracing for an extremely busy Autumn in the US and around the world. The tense situation in the Middle East will continue to dominate the attention of markets this week, especially after Israel’s massive preemptive strike this weekend on Hezbollah forces in southern Lebanon. The strike is the biggest military action so far this year between Israeli Defense Forces and Hezbollah forces. More than 100 Israeli fighter jets struck sites across the region, reportedly destroying a number of missile sites – estimated to be more than 40 sites – that were reportedly preparing to strike Tel Aviv and other urban centers in Israel.

Yet, despite this significant uptick in fighting, negotiators are set to meet in Cairo this week, and the Qatari Prime Minister travels to Tehran for talks. Additionally, US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Charles Q. Brown, Jr., is traveling to Israel to ensure defense preparations against further Iranian or Iranian-affiliated attacks, emphasizing the US’ determination to discourage any attacks that could derail negotiations.

It seems some sort of cease-fire deal has been within reach for months now, but sources tell us this time, it is closer than ever. We would note Iran has continued to hold off striking back at Israel following the assassination of a senior Hamas official who was visiting Tehran and the killing of a senior Hezbollah commander last month, actions Iranian officials swore to retaliate for.

Meanwhile, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will travel to Beijing this week for meetings with senior Chinese diplomat Wang Yi. The purpose of the meeting is to discuss ways to improve dialogue between Washington and Beijing, how to further incapacitate the fentanyl trade coming out of China, and surely discussions about China’s support for Russia’s war against Ukraine. While Sullivan has had increasingly regular talks with Wang over the last two years, this is the first time he has visited Beijing for such meetings – and the first time a U.S. National Security Advisor has traveled to Beijing since 2016 when then-National Security Advisor Susan Rice went at the direction of President Barrack Obama.

This will be a big week in Mexico – the United States’ largest trading partner – as the country’s judiciary begins massive protests against a highly controversial “reform” effort by Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) to push through legislation requiring all judges be elected by popular vote instead of being appointed. The worry is this will make the judiciary highly politicized and also allow drug cartels to have an even greater ability to control the legal system. And it has foreign investors deeply worried about what it could do to commercial law in the country. AMLO’s proposal has been endorsed by his successor, Claudia Sheinbaum, who is set to be sworn in as Mexico’s new president in October.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, markets are looking at US PCE and CPI prints this week – the last ones to come out before the Federal Reserve meets to discuss – and, as Fed Chair Jay Powell indicated in a speech in Jackson Hole Friday – begin lowering interest rates. Additionally, the Conference Board releases the closely watched Consumer Confidence Index this week.

In Asia, it is a big week for economic reports. Japan releases its August CPI figures, labor market numbers, and industrial production numbers. China sets its 1-year MLF rate (along with a flood of Chinese corporate earnings), and Australia releases its August CPI.

Turning to Europe, CPI numbers will be out for the Eurozone, Germany, France, Spain, and Italy this week. Germany and France also release consumer confidence reports, giving investors a deeper sense of whether the two economic engines of Europe are getting back on track or will continue sputtering.

Here is what else we are watching closely around the world this coming week:

Sunday, August 25, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Mexican judicial workers – including judges – will rally in Mexico City to protest sweeping government-sponsored judicial reforms. The proposals, being pushed through by President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, have come under heavy criticism not only inside Mexico but from abroad. Both the US Ambassador to Mexico, Ken Salazar, called the reforms a “major risk to democracy.” The Canadian Ambassador to Mexico, Graham Clark, said, “My investors are concerned, they want stability, they want a judicial system that works if there are problems.”

· In Argentina, unionized pilots flying for Aerolineas Argentinas will strike and stage demonstrations at Argentina's commercial airports through August 30.

· Today is Uruguay Independence Day, marking the day in 1828 when the country gained its independence from Portugal.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Day of Songun, a national holiday in North Korea. The day celebrating the start of the military-first rule in the nation under the leadership of Kim Jong-Il in 1948.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in panel discussion at The Rimini Meeting 2024 "Se non siamo alla ricerca dell'essenziale, allora cosa cerchiamo?" in Rimini, Italy.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The Shiite Arbaeen pilgrimage, which commemorates the martyrdom of Imam Hussein, will take place in Karbala, Iraq. It is considered one of the world’s largest public gatherings.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs hosts the Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD) Ministerial Meeting.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, August 26, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh meets with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan in Washington, DC. Singh will also chair a high-level roundtable with defense industry executives regarding ongoing and future defense collaborations.

· The 10th Annual AmeriGEO Conference, hosted by Ecuador’s Secretariat for Risk Management and Military Geographic Institute, takes place in Quito, Ecuador. The conference, which will be attended by senior government official from throughout the Hemisphere seeks to “brings together diverse communities and builds connections, fostering collaboration among national, regional, and international efforts in integrated Earth and social science research.’

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence AUG/ Current Account JUL/ Foreign Direct Investment JUL/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Canada Wholesale Sales MoM Prel JUL

· USA Durable Goods Orders MoM JUL/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index AUG

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The 53rd Pacific Islands Forum Leaders meeting takes place in Tonga. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will speak. The main topics are expected to be climate change and ongoing tensions between China and the US.

· The US and Indonesia hold Garuda Shield, a military exercise in Indonesia.

· Today is National Heroes Day in the Philippines, honoring all those who died for the independence of the country.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade JUL

· Singapore Industrial Production YoY JUL

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi travels to the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant in Russia. Grossi is traveling to inspect the plant following Russian drone attacks last week which damaged the facility. Russian President Vladimir Putin has accused Ukraine of attacking the plant but evidence suggests it was actually Russian drones that hit the plant.

· French President Emmanuel Macron will meet the leaders of the far-right National Rally party alongside the leader of the center-right Les Republicains party, Eric Ciotti, as part of ongoing government formation consultations.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris.

· Today is the late Summer Bank Holiday in the UK.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ireland Consumer Confidence AUG

· Hungary Gross Wage YoY JUN

· Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls Q2

· Spain PPI YoY JUL

· Turkey Business Confidence AUG/ Capacity Utilization AUG

· Germany Ifo Business Climate AUG/ Ifo Current Conditions AUG/ Ifo Expectations AUG

· Poland Unemployment Rate JUL

· Slovenia Business Confidence AUG

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani is expected to travel to Tehran, Iran for meeting with senior Iranian officials regarding the state of negotiations over Gaza as well as the looming threat of an attack by Iran on Israel. Qatar and Egypt along with the US have acted as mediators in efforts to secure a ceasefire in Gaza to end the 10-month long war. Talks are expected resume later this week between representatives of Hamas and Israel either in Cairo or in Qatar.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Lebanon Inflation Rate YoY JUL

· Qatar M2 Money Supply YoY JUL

· Israel Manufacturing PMI JUN/ Manufacturing PMI JUL

· Kuwait Private Bank Lending YoY JUL

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria GDP Growth Rate YoY Q2

Tuesday, August 27, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will travel to Beijing. He will meet with top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi to discuss a range of issue ranging from Taiwan to US-China military talks and fentanyl. This is the first visit by a US National Security Advisor to China since 2016.

· SpaceX will attempt the first ever private spacewalk.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI YoY AUG

· Mexico Balance of Trade JUL

· USA Redbook YoY AUG/24/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY JUN/ House Price Index JUN/ CB Consumer Confidence AUG/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index AUG/ Dallas Fed Services Index AUG/ NY Fed Treasury Purchases 22.5 to 30 yrs/ Money Supply JUL/ API Crude Oil Stock Change AUG/23

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Industrial Profits (YTD) YoY JUL

· Taiwan Consumer Confidence AUG

· Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment AUG

· Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade JUL

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez begins a multi-day visits Mauritania, Gambia and Senegal.

· Today is Independence Day in Moldova, marking when the country gained its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q2

· Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades AUG

· Hungary Deposit Interest Rate AUG/ Interest Rate Decision

· Spain Consumer Confidence JUL

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The US-Africa Nuclear Energy Summit takes place in Nairobi, Kenya.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Zimbabwe Inflation Rate MoM AUG

Wednesday, August 28, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Syria).

· The 2024 Summer Paralympics begin in Paris and run through September 8.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Chilean government authorities will attend the "Chile Summit India 2024" in New Delhi and Mumbai through August 30.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on payments at the Global Fintech Festival 2024, Mumbai, India.

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index AUG/23/ MBA Purchase Index AUG/23/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change AUG/23

· Uruguay Unemployment Rate JUL

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia Monthly CPI Indicator JUL/ Construction Work Done QoQ Q2

· Philippines Budget Balance JUL

· Malaysia PPI YoY JUL

· Japan Coincident Index Final JUN/ Leading Economic Index Final JUN

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer visits Germany for meetings with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz his first visit to Germany since being elected Prime Minister.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany GfK Consumer Confidence SEP

· France Consumer Confidence AUG/ Unemployment Benefit Claims JUL/ Jobseekers Total JUL

· Slovakia Business & Consumer Confidence AUG

· Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final JUL

· Euro Area Loans to Companies & Households YoY JUL/ M3 Money Supply YoY JUL

· Italy Industrial Sales YoY JUN

· Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index AUG

· Slovenia Retail Sales YoY JUL

· Greece Total Credit YoY JUL

· Russia Unemployment Rate JUL/ Business Confidence AUG/ Corporate Profits JUN/ Industrial Production YoY JUL/ Real Wage Growth YoY JUN/ Retail Sales YoY JUL/ GDP YoY JUL

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Interest Rate Decision

· Qatar GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1

· Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply YoY JUL/ Private Bank Lending YoY JUL

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, August 29, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution to extend the mandate of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), followed by consultations on the 1718 Committee.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US and Argentina sign a memorandum of understanding for the export of critical minerals to the US.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to give "Introduction to the Federal Reserve and an Economic Outlook" presentation before a Georgia Tech Scheller College of Business Management of Financial Institutions class in Atlanta, Georgia.

· Brazil IGP-M Inflation MoM AUG/ Bank Lending MoM JUL/ PPI YoY JUL/ Net Payrolls JUL

· Canada Current Account Q2/ Average Weekly Earnings YoY JUN

· USA GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est Q2/ Corporate Profits QoQ Prel Q2/ GDP Price Index QoQ 2nd Est Q2/ Goods Trade Balance Adv JUL/ Initial Jobless Claims AUG/24/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv JUL/ Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv JUL/ Core PCE Prices QoQ 2nd Est Q2/ PCE Prices QoQ 2nd Est Q2/ Real Consumer Spending QoQ 2nd Est Q2/ Pending Home Sales YoY JUL/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change AUG/23/ Fed Balance Sheet AUG/28

· Chile Unemployment Rate JUL

· Colombia Business Confidence JUL

· Argentina Consumer Confidence AUG

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment AUG/24/ Stock Investment by Foreigners AUG/24

· New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence AUG

· Australia Building Capital Expenditure QoQ Q2/ Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure QoQ Q2/ Private Capital Expenditure QoQ Q2

· Vietnam Balance of Trade AUG/ Industrial Production YoY AUG/ Inflation Rate YoY AUG/ Retail Sales YoY AUG/ Tourist Arrivals YoY AUG

· Singapore Export Prices YoY JUL/ Import Prices YoY JUL/ PPI YoY JUL

· Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· EU Foreign Affairs Ministers will hold an informal meeting in Brussels.

· French President Emmanuel Macron visits Serbia for meetings with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic. They will discuss ways to broaden economic ties but also Artificial Intelligence. Serbia is chairing the Global Partnership on Artificial Intelligence – an initiative set up by Macron and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

· Today is the deadline for nominations to be submitted for EU Commissioners.

· Today is the anniversary of the Slovak National Uprising, marking the day in 1944 when the people of Slovakia rose up against Nazi rule.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane will participate on a panel entitled "Inflation – Challenges for Policymakers and Researchers" organized by Brandeis University/CEBRA at annual Central Bank Research Association meeting organized with the Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE and Deutsche Bundesbank in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Great Britain Car Production YoY JUL

· European Union New Car Registrations YoY JUL

· Spain Inflation Rate YoY Prel AUG/ Business Confidence AUG

· Turkey Economic Confidence Index AUG/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves AUG/23

· Germany Baden Wuerttemberg CPI YoY AUG/ Bavaria CPI YoY AUG/ Brandenburg CPI YoY AUG/ Hesse CPI YoY AUG/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI YoY AUG/ Saxony CPI YoY AUG/ Inflation Rate YoY Prel AUG

· Poland GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q2

· Euro Area Economic Sentiment AUG/ Consumer Confidence Final AUG/ Consumer Inflation Expectations AUG/ Industrial Sentiment AUG/ Selling Price Expectations AUG/ Services Sentiment AUG

· Greece Unemployment Rate JUL

· Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate YoY Prel AUG/ Wholesale Prices YoY JUL

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Turkey will host Iraqi, Qatari and Emirati officials for a Development Road Summit in Istanbul. The estimated $20 billion project aims connect Iraq’s Basra port on the Persian Gulf to Turkey and beyond. The UAE and Qatar are potential investors in the project.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Qatar Balance of Trade JUL

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa PPI YoY JUL

Friday, August 30, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer AUG/ GDP Growth Rate Annualized Q2/ GDP MoM JUN/ Budget Balance JUN

· Brazil Gross Debt to GDP JUL/ Nominal Budget Balance JUL/ Unemployment Rate JUL

· USA PCE Price Index YoY JUL/ Personal Income & Spending JUL/ Chicago PMI AUG/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Expectations Final AUG

· Chile Copper Production YoY JUL/ Industrial Production YoY JUL/ Manufacturing Production YoY JUL/ Retail Sales YoY JUL

· Colombia Unemployment Rate JUL

· Uruguay Balance of Trade JUL

· Mexico Fiscal Balance JUL

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Popular Consultation Day in East Timor. It marks the day when the country held a referendum in 1999 to let the people of East Timor choose between greater autonomy in Indonesia or separation.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence AUG/ Building Permits MoM JUL

· South Korea Industrial Production YoY JUL/ Retail Sales MoM JUL

· Japan Unemployment Rate JUL/ Tokyo CPI AUG/ Retail Sales YoY JUL/ Industrial Production YoY JUL/ Consumer Confidence AUG/ Housing Starts YoY JUL/ Construction Orders YoY JUL

· Philippines PPI YoY JUL

· Australia Housing Credit MoM JUL/ Retail Sales MoM JUL/ Private Sector Credit YoY JUL

· Singapore Bank Lending JUL

· Thailand Industrial Production YoY JUL/ Current Account JUL/ Private Consumption & Investment JUL/ Retail Sales YoY JUN

· Malaysia M3 Money Supply YoY JUL

· Hong Kong Retail Sales YoY JUL

· Sri Lanka Inflation Rate YoY AUG/ PPI YoY JUL/ Balance of Trade JUL

· India Government Budget Value JUL/ Foreign Exchange Reserves AUG/23/ Infrastructure Output YoY JUL/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Q2

· Pakistan Consumer Confidence AUG

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· EU Defense Ministers will hold an informal meeting in Brussels.

· Members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization will conduct weeks-long military exercises in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to maintain regional stability amid threats emanating from Afghanistan.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a lecture at Ragnar Nurkse Lecture Series organized by Bank of Estonia in Tallinn, Estonia.

· European Central Bank Board member Kerstin af Jochnick participates on a panel at the joint European Banking Authority & European Central Bank international conference on Supervisory Cooperation in Frankfurt, Germany.

· France Private Non-Farm Payrolls QoQ Final Q2/ Inflation Rate YoY Prel AUG/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q2/ Household Consumption MoM JUL/ PPI YoY JUL

· Germany Retail Sales YoY MAY/ Import Prices YoY JUL/ Unemployed Persons/ Change/ Rate AUG

· Romania Unemployment Rate JUL

· Hungary PPI YoY JUL

· Spain Retail Sales YoY JUL/ Current Account JUN

· Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators AUG

· Italy Unemployment Rate JUL/ Inflation Rate Prel AUG/ Business & Consumer Confidence AUG

· Poland Inflation Rate YoY Prel AUG

· Slovenia Inflation Rate YoY AUG

· Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit JUL/ Mortgage Approvals & Lending JUL/ M4 Money Supply MoM JUL/ Net Lending to Individuals MoM JUL

· Euro Area Inflation Rate Flash AUG/ Unemployment Rate JUL/ CPI Flash AUG

· Greece PPI YoY JUL/ Retail Sales YoY JUN

· Ireland Retail Sales YoY JUL

· Serbia Balance of Trade JUL/ Industrial Production YoY JUL/ Retail Sales YoY JUL/ Unemployment Rate Q2

· Ukraine Current Account JUL

· Russia M2 Money Supply YoY JUL

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Turkey Victory Day, marking the day in 1922 when Turkish military forces defeated the Greeks at the Battle of Dumlupinar. Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· A special session of the African Ministerial Conference on the Environment and the UN Convention to Combat Desertification will be held in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa M3 Money Supply YoY JUL/ Private Sector Credit YoY JUL/ Balance of Trade JUL/ Budget Balance JUL

· Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves AUG

· Kenya Inflation Rate YoY AUG

· Egypt M2 Money Supply YoY JUL

Saturday, August 31, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Trinidad and Tobago Independence Day, celebrating when the country gained its independence from Britain in 1962.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Niue, an island country in free association with New Zealand, holds a constitutional referendum which will change the head of government from a Premier to a Prime Minister, extend the term length of members of the assembly from three to four years, increase the size of the cabinet from four to six members, and make the Auditor-General of New Zealand as the country’s official auditor.

· Today is Kyrgyzstan Independence Day, marking the day the country declared independence from the Soviet Union in 1992.

· Today is Malaysia Independence Day, marking the day the country gained its independence from Britain in 1957.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China NBS Non- & Manufacturing PMI AUG/ NBS General PMI AUG

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 1, 2024

Global

· Slovenia assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of September.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador gives an annual speech on the executive branch’s accomplishments, similar to a state of the nation address.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Indonesia hosts the 2nd Annual Indonesia-Africa Forum in Bali. Indonesian President Joko Widodo and more than 30 African leaders will meet for three days to discuss how to deepen political and economic ties and build stronger supply chains and healthcare systems.

· Azerbaijan holds parliamentary elections.

· Today is Uzbekistan Independence Day, celebrating when the country was able to declare its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

· Today is Constitution Day in Kazakhstan.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade AUG

· Australia CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM AUG

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· In Germany, state elections will be held in Saxony and Thuringia.

· Czechia will hold regional elections and the election of one-third of the Senate.

Fulcrum Perspectives

Sunday, September 15, 2024

Monday, September 16, 2024

Tuesday, September 17, 2024

Wednesday, September 18, 2024

Thursday, September 19, 2024

Friday, September 20, 2024

Saturday, September 21, 2024

Sunday, September 22, 2024

September 13 - 15, 2024

Mexico’s Senate Holds Final Vote on Controversial Judicial Reform Bill; Trump and Harris Debate, and the ECB Makes A Tough Call on Interest Rates

September 9 - 13, 2024

Sunday, September 8, 2024

Monday, September 9, 2024

Tuesday, September 10, 2024

Wednesday, September 11, 2024

Thursday, September 12, 2024

Friday, September 13, 2024

Saturday, September 14, 2024

Sunday, September 15, 2024

Moving to Full Throttle: Washington Ramps Up On Multiple Regulatory Fronts This Week

September 9 - 13, 2024

Mexico's Judicial Reform Risk, Bad Best on "Peak China," and Germany's Economic Challenge

September 1 - 8, 2024

Sunday, September 1, 2024

Monday, September 2, 2024

Tuesday, September 3, 2024

Wednesday, September 4, 2024

Thursday, September 5, 202

Friday, September 6, 2024

Saturday, September 7, 2024

Sunday, September 8, 2024

September 2 - 6, 2024

Washington Gets Back to Work… Sort Of…

And What is Going on at the FDIC?

August 30 - September 1, 2024

Geoeconomics & Markets

Mexico’s Judicial Reform Crisis

China’s Unemployment and the World Economy

German State Elections

August 25 - September 1, 2024

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