Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis.

Francis Kelly 4/6/25 Francis Kelly 4/6/25

The Global Week Ahead

Trump’s Tariffs Go Into Effect as China and EU Move to Retaliate, Netanyahu Meets with Trump on Iran and Tariffs, and Markets Look to Fed Minutes for Guidance

April 6 - 13, 2025

What a week the global markets had last week! And it is not over, as this coming week looks just as turbulent. President Trump’s new tariff regime will go into effect this week, and China’s retaliatory 34% tariffs will go into effect, too. EU trade ministers’ officials meet on Tuesday to consider the full impact of the Trump tariffs and likely move to institute their retaliatory tariffs.

We expect a number of bilateral meetings to be announced this week with the US as countries seek quick relief. Vietnam has already sent a delegation to Washington, and we will be watching closely for any announcements. Vietnam has a $124 billion trade deficit with the US, the second highest after China, and has been hit with a 46% tariff rate. The US is Vietnam’s largest export market.

With all this going on, the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG), which is comprised of 50 countries supporting Ukraine militarily and financially, will meet in Brussels. But for the first time, no senior US official will attend. The absence comes as President Trump continues to press Russia to agree to a cease-fire – an effort that saw Kirill Dmitriev, the head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, was taken off the US sanctions list so he could travel to Washington to meet with US officials to discuss the current peace proposal. The former Goldman Sachs banker has since told reporters he believes there will be further discussions this coming week between Washington and Moscow, but he gave no details in what form they will take.

Also this coming week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is traveling to Washington for his second set of meetings this year with President Trump. The two leaders are expected to discuss the tariff situation, the situation in Gaza, and the policy coordination toward Iran.

We would also note that something else of significance is taking place in Washington this week: Tawain’s top national security official, Joseph Wu, is holding a secret meeting with senior US officials about the ongoing tensions with China. The US and Taiwan are terming the meetings as a “special channel” for Tawain and the US to discuss security issues.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, markets are looking to Wednesday’s release of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee minutes for indications of what the Fed might do regarding the tariffs. Also out this week will be US CPI for March and the important University of Michigan consumer survey for April.

In Europe, European Central Bank officials will gather with EU Finance and economic ministers this week to discuss the economic impact of the tariffs. Also this week, the UK GDP for February is out on Friday, and Germany reports its March CPI numbers.

In Asia, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will speak on Wednesday and likely reveal early views of the tariffs' impact. Meanwhile, China will report both CPI and PPI figures on Thursday.

Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, April 6, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Brazilian right-wing supporters will demonstrate in Sao Paulo in support of former President Jair Bolsonaro.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Daylight Savings ends in Australia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (March)/ Foreign Direct Investment (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Industrial Production (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Tourist Arrivals (March)

· Indonesia Motorbike Sales (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 7, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on UN Peacekeeping operations (HOMC).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House. In a statement, the Israeli Prime Minister said the two leaders will discuss “discuss the tariff issue, the efforts to return our hostages, Israel-Turkey relations, the Iranian threat and the battle against the International Criminal Court.”

· US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth travels to Panama for talks with Panama’s President Jose Raul Mulino.

· New session of Greenlandic Parliament (Inatsisartut) opens.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler will give a virtual lecture at Harvard University entitled “Inflation Dynamics and the Phillips Curve.”

· Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

· Mexico Auto Exports (March)/ Auto Production (March)

· Canada BoC Business Outlook Survey

· USA Consumer Credit Change (February)/ Used Car Prices (March)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (March)

· Colombia Inflation Rate (March)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· ASEAN finance ministers and central bank chiefs will meet in Kuala Lumpur through April 10. They will seek to address economic challenges, including the impact of Trump's latest tariffs. The main meeting is set for Thursday and is expected to discuss regional financial integration and resilience amid escalating geopolitical tensions.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Average Cash Earnings (February)/ Overtime Pay (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ Coincident Index Prel (February)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (February)

· Australia ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (March)

· Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· China Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Philippines Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Indonesia Tourist Arrivals (January & February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Luxembourg to discuss President Trump’s tariffs and possible responses and retaliatory tariffs. They will also discuss ongoing trade issues with China.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Culture and Media Ministers through April 8 in Warsaw, Poland.

· NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte travels to Tokyo, Japan for talks.

· Polish President Andrzej Duda visits Estonia for bilateral talks.

· Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov speaks at opening of TASS photo exhibition in Moscow. He then will give remarks later regarding the development of the Kaluga region.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in Session 2 "Central bank money in a digital World: CBDCs" at conference "The interplay between tax and financial regulations in a new digital environment" organized by Banca d'Italia, Institute for Austrian and International Tax Law and Vienna University of Economics and Business in Rome, Italy.

· Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Industrial Production (February)

· Romania Retail Sales (February)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (March)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (March)

· Hungary Retail Sales (February)

· France Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Slovakia Retail Sales (February)

· Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Euro Area Retail Sales (February)/ ECB Cipollone Speech

· Greece Balance of Trade (February)

· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/28)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· French President Emmanuel Macron visits Cairo, Egypt for bilateral talks.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (March)

· Israel Interest Rate Decision/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

· Jordan GDP Growth Rate Q4/ PPI (February)

· Kuwait M2 Money Supply (February)/ Private Bank Lending (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

Tuesday, April 8, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK).

· The Soyuz MS-27 spacecraft launches from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan to ISS with two Russians and one American.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Central American Security Conference, organized by Panama and US Southern Command begins in Panama and goes through April 10. US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth will participate.

Economic Reports/Events –

· San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in “The Economic Outlook and Work of the Federal Reserve" conversation hosted by the Brigham Young University Marriott School of Business.

· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (March)/ Redbook (April/05)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/04)

· Chile Inflation Rate (March)

· Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (February)/ Nominal Budget Balance (February)/ Car Production (March)/ New Car Registrations (March)

· Canada Ivey PMI s.a (March)

· Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· South Korea will announce the date of forthcoming snap elections.

· Vietnamese President Luong Cuong will pay a state visit to Laos through April 9.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence & Utilization Q1

· Japan Current Account (February)/ Bank Lending (March)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (March)

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (April)/ NAB Business Confidence (March)

· South Korea Current Account (February)

· Philippines Unemployment Rate (February)/ Industrial Production (February)

· Indonesia Inflation Rate (March)

· Taiwan Inflation Rate (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will visit London for another round of free trade negotiations.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Executive Board Member Luis de Guindos gives the closing speech at the annual meeting of the Spanish Banking Association in Madrid, Spain. Later in the day, he will give the introductory statement at a Hearing on the digital euro before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

· Bank of England Governor Clare Lombardelli takes part in a panel discussion with former Obama adviser Jason Furman on the divergence between British and American economic productivity at an event hosted by the Resolution Foundation think-tank in London.

· Ireland Construction PMI (March)/ Industrial Production (February)

· Hungary Inflation Rate (March)/ Budget Balance (March)

· France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Current Account (February)

· Euro Area ECB Guindos Speech/ ECB Cipollone Speech

· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Kenya Interest Rate Decision

· Egypt Current Account Q4

· Tanzania Inflation Rate (March)

Wednesday, April 9, 2025

Global

· President Donald Trump’s announced trade tariffs are due to take effect at 12:01 a.m. Washington time.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a private meeting on Somalia. .

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) Conference begins in Tegucigalpa, Honduras.

· Union workers will begin a 36-hour long strike in Buenos Aires against President Javier Milei’s policies.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin participates in a conversation with the Economic Club of Washington.

· Federal Reserve’s FOMC Minutes released/USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/04)/ MBA Purchase Index (April/04)/ Wholesale Inventories (February)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (April/04)

· Brazil Bank Lending (February)/ Retail Sales (February)/ PPI (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

· Mexico Inflation Rate (March)

· Argentina Industrial Production (February)

· El Salvador PPI (March)

· Panama Current Account Q4

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Asian Development Bank releases the latest edition of its widely followed economic publication, the Asian Development Outlook. The report will include growth forecasts for emerging economies in Asia this year and next

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Governor Kazuno Ueda gives a speech at the 100th Trustee Conference in Tokyo.

· Australia Building Permits (February)/ Private House Approvals (February)

· New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (March)

· Indonesia RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio

· Japan Consumer Confidence (March)/ Machine Tool Orders (March)

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The 10th EU-Ukraine Association Council will meet in Brussels

· Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez visits Vietnam and China through April 11.

· The Chair and Vice-Chair of The European Parliament’s Delegation for Relations with the United States, together with the chairs of the committees on foreign affairs and international trade, will travel to Washington DC to meet with counterparts in the US Congress. They will discuss the situation in Ukraine and its impact on transatlantic relations, EU-US trade, and relations with China.

· The Delphi Economic Forum begins in Delphi, Greece and runs through April 12. A number of government officials, senior business executives, and central bankers are scheduled to speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a in policy panel 'Macro-Financial Stability Policy in a Fragmented World' at Bruegel's 20th anniversary event "Globalization and geo-economic fragmentation" organized together with De Nederlandsche Bank in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

· Romania Balance of Trade (February)

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (February)

· Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech

· Russia GDP Growth Rate Q4

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The US-MEAD Summit takes place in Abu Dhabi, UAE.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Business Confidence (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, April 10, 2025

Global

· G20 finance and central bank deputies two-day meeting begins in Johannesburg, South Africa.

· There will be a meeting of the BRICS Working Group on Security in the Use of Information and Communications Technologies (WGSICT) in Brasilia, Brazil through April 11.

Americas

· China’s 34% retaliatory tariffs against US imports take effect.

· A senior Ukrainian delegation is expected to travel to Washington to discuss a draft proposal granting the US access to critical minerals in Ukraine (to be confirmed).

Political/Social Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman will have her confirmation hearing to serve as Vice Chair for Supervision before the Senate Banking Committee.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan gives welcome remarks before hybrid Outlook for North American Trade and Immigration event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Economic Club of New York.

· Canada Building Permits (February)

· USA Inflation Rate (March)/ CPI (March)/ Initial Jobless Claims (April/05)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/04)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/10)/ WASDE Report/ Monthly Budget Statement (March)/ Fed Balance Sheet (April/09)

· Mexico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Paraguay Balance of Trade (March)

· Ecuador Balance of Trade (February)

· Peru Balance of Trade (February)/ Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Global Technology Summit begins in New Delhi.

Economic Reports/Events –

§ Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock to speak at the Chief Executive Women Melbourne Annual Dinner in Melbourne, Australia.

§ South Korea Unemployment Rate (March)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (April/05)/ PPI (March)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/05)

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)/ RBA Bullock Speech

· China Inflation Rate (March)/ PPI (March)

· Philippines Interest Rate Decision

· Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

· Kazakhstan PPI (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The UK-Germany-France led “Coalition of the Willing” will meet at NATO Headquarters. The coalition consists of those countries willing to militarily and financially support Ukraine.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal in Brussels.

· Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will conduct a state visit to South Africa.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will give a
lecture at the SGH Warsaw School of Economics in Warsaw, Poland.

· European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner will participate in a session "Adapting regulation and supervision to diversity in the EU banking system" at Eurofi High Level Seminar in Warsaw, Poland. Later in the day, he will participate in a session entitled “''Banking Union: combining EU and national interests."

· Bank of England deputy governor for financial stability Sarah Breeden speaks at Market News International connect event, UK Economic and Financial Stability Prospects in London.

· European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen will participate in apanel discussion "Priorities for the EU banking sector" at Eurofi High Level Seminar in Warsaw, Poland.

· European Central Bank Supervisory Board Member Sharon Donnery will give a speech at the Delphi Economic Forum X in Delphi, Greece.

· Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (March)

· Romania GDP Growth Rate Q4

· Euro Area ECB Montagner Speech/ ECB Tuominen Speech/ ECB Buch Speech/ ECB Donnery Speech/ ECOFIN Meeting/ Eurogroup Meeting

· Slovakia Industrial Production (February)

· Turkey Industrial Production (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/04)

· Italy Industrial Production (February)

· Slovenia Industrial Production (February)

· Greece Inflation Rate (March)

· Ireland Inflation Rate (March)

· Serbia Interest Rate Decision

· Ukraine Inflation Rate (March)

· Belarus Inflation Rate (March)

· Switzerland SNB Moser Speech/ SNB Tschudin Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Tesla will begin selling its cars in Saudi Arabia for the first time.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The International Court of Justice is set to hear arguments in a case filed by Sudan against the United Arab Emirates, in which Khartoum has accused the Gulf state of complicity in genocide.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Manufacturing Production (February)

· Egypt Inflation Rate (March)

· Mozambique Inflation Rate (March)

Friday, April 11, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy and participates in moderated conversation before the Arkansas State Bank Department's 29th Annual Day with the Commissioner.

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy before the Puerto Rico Chamber of Commerce.

· Brazil Inflation Rate (March)/ IBC-BR Economic Activity (February)/ Business Confidence (April)

· Mexico Industrial Production (February)

· USA PPI (March) / Michigan Current Conditions Prel (April)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (April/11)

· Argentina Inflation Rate (March)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (March)

· Malaysia Industrial Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (January)/ Business Confidence Q1

· Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

· India Industrial Production (February)/ Inflation Rate (March)/ Manufacturing Production (February)/ Bank Loan Growth (March/28)/ Deposit Growth (March/28)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/04)

· Indonesia Car Sales (March)

· China Vehicle Sales (March)/ New Yuan Loans (March)/ M2 Money Supply (March)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (March)/ Total Social Financing (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Eurogroup will meet in Warsaw, Poland. Leaders will discuss economic developments and euro area policy coordination and upcoming international meetings. There will also be an informal meeting of EU Economic and Financial Affairs Ministers through April 12.

· The Ukraine Defense Contact Group will meet at NATO Headquarters in Brussels. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is expected to skip the meeting in an unusual and widely noted move.

· The Council of Foreign Ministers of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) will meet in Kazakhstan. The CIS is made up of 12 former Soviet states: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan.

· IN Instanbul, the trial of Istanbul Mayor and national opposition leader Ekrem Imamoglu for various charges begins.

· Turkey will host the annual Antalya Diplomacy Forum in its Mediterranean resort city of Antalya through Sunday. Under the theme "Reclaiming Diplomacy in a Fragmented World.”

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany Inflation Rate (March)/ Current Account (February)

· Romania Inflation Rate (March)/ Current Account (February)

· Great Britain Goods Trade Balance (February)/ Balance of Trade (February)/ GDP (February)/ Construction Output (February)/ Industrial Production (February)/ Manufacturing Production (February)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (March)

· Hungary Industrial Production (February)

· Slovakia Construction Output (February)

· Spain Inflation Rate (March)

· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (March)

· Turkey Retail Sales (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ Auto Production & Sales (March)

· Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech/ ECOFIN Meeting

· Serbia Inflation Rate (March)

· Poland Balance of Trade (February)/ Current Account (February)

· Russia Balance of Trade (February)/ Current Account Q1/ Inflation Rate (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Angola Inflation Rate (March)

· South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (February & March)

Saturday, April 12, 2025

Global

· The Jewish holiday of Passover begins and goes through April 20.

· Today is Palm Sunday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Osaka Expo begins with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba as well as the nation's emperor and empress are due to attend the opening ceremony. The Expo goes for six months and will showcase technologies and innovations from 165 countries and organizations.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Gabon holds Presidential and Parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, April 13, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Ecuador holds its 2nd round of presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ecuador Presidential Election (2nd Round)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Beijing hosts the world’s first half marathon featuring both human and humanoid robot runners at the Chinese capital’s artificial intelligence hub.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Finland holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 4/6/25 Francis Kelly 4/6/25

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Bowman’s Vice Chair Confirmation Hearing, Looking for Timeline of SEC and OCC Nomination Votes, and the ABA’s Washington Summit Likely to Shed New Light on Forthcoming Regulatory Policy

April 7 - 11, 2025

It is going to be a big week in the Senate for important regulatory nominees. The Senate Banking Committee will hold the confirmation hearing for current Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman to serve as Vice Chair for Supervision. She will be in a pack of nominees (six total) who are up for other roles at Treasury and Commerce.

We would note that the Treasury Department will be taking a big step forward to finally filling critical seats this week as the Senate (both Banking Committee and the Finance Committee which share oversight of Treasury) hold confirmation hearings for the Undersecretary for Financial Crimes, Tax Policy as Luke Pettit, who is up for Assistant Secretary for Financial Institutions, is up for a final full Senate confirmation vote.

Also this week, we are likely to get a clearer timeline for when the full Senate will vote on the final confirmation of SEC Chair nominee Paul Atkins and Comptroller of the Currency nominee Jonathan Gould. With Congress going out for two weeks for the Passover/Easter holidays (April 14-25), it is likely those votes will not take place until the last week of April or early May. Both Atkins and Gould were successfully approved by the Senate Banking Committee last week.

The big event of the week will be the American Bankers Association annual Washington Summit. There will be a host of important speakers ranging from Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-SC) to House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill (R-AK) to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to acting FDIC Chair Travis Hill.

There will be a number of hearings in Congress this week. Notably, the House Financial Services Committee’s recently created on Monetary Policy, Treasury Market Resilience, and Economic Prosperity will hold a hearing entitled “ U.S. Treasury Debt in the Monetary System.” The Task Force – made up of only Republican members – is looking at the Federal Reserve and where reforms should be made.

Below is what else we are watching in the Washington financial regulatory world this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

Tuesday, April 8, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Finance Committee will hold a hearing on President Trump’s 2025 Trade Policy Agenda. U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer will testify.
Tuesday, April 8, 11:00 a.m. – Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-SC) will speak at the American Bankers Association’s Washington Summit.
Thursday, April 10, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Finance Committee will hold the confirmation hearing for William Kimmitt to be the Undersecretary of Commerce for International Trade and Ken Kies to be Assistant Secretary of Treasury for Tax Policy.
Thursday, April 10, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee will hold confirmation hearings for Andrew Hughes to be Deputy Secretary, Department of Housing and Urban Development, David Woll, to be General Counsel, Department of Housing and Urban Development, The Honorable Michelle Bowman to be Vice Chairman for Supervision, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, John Hurley, to be Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Crimes, Department of the Treasury, David Fogel, to be Assistant Secretary of Commerce and Director General of the United States and Foreign Commercial Service, Department of Commerce, and Landon Heid, to be an Assistant Secretary of Commerce, Department of Commerce.

House of Representatives

Tuesday, April 8, 8:30 a.m. – House Financial Services Committee Chairman French Hill participates in a fireside chat at the ABA Washington Summit.
Tuesday, April 8, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations will hold a hearing entitled “Decades of Dysfunction: Restoring Accountability at HUD.”
Tuesday, April 8, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Committees Task Force on Monetary Policy, Treasury Market Resilience, and Economic Prosperity will hold a hearing entitled “ U.S. Treasury Debt in the Monetary System.”

Wednesday, April 9, 10:00 a.m. – The House Ways and Means Committee will hold a hearing on the Trump Administration’s 2025 Trade Policy Agenda. US. Trade Representative Jamison Greer will testify.

Wednesday, April 9, 2:00 p.m. – The House Agriculture Committee’s Subcommittee on Commodity Markets, Digital Assets, and Rural Development will hold a hearing entitled “American Innovation and the Future of Digital Assets: On-Chain Tools for an Off-Chain World.”

Wednesday, April 9, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology, and Artificial Intelligence will hold a hearing entitled “ American Innovation and the Future of Digital Assets Aligning the U.S. Securities Laws for the Digital Age”

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

Monday, April 7, 10:30 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler will give a virtual lecture at Harvard University entitled “Inflation Dynamics and the Phillips Curve.”
Tuesday, April 8, 10:00 a.m. – San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in “The Economic Outlook and Work of the Federal Reserve" conversation hosted by the Brigham Young University Marriott School of Business.
Wednesday, April 9, 12:00 p.m. – Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin participates in a conversation with the Economic Club of Washington.
Thursday, April 10, 10:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman will have her confirmation hearing to serve as Vice Chair for Supervision before the Senate Banking Committee.
Friday, April 11, 10:00 a.m. – St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy and participates in moderated conversation before the Arkansas State Bank Department's 29th Annual Day with the Commissioner.

U.S. Treasury Department

Wednesday, April 9, 8:30 a.m. – Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will speak at the American Bankers Association’s Washington Summit.

Department of Commerce

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

Thursday, April 10, 1:00 p.m. – The SEC holds its 44th Annual Small Business Forum.

Thursday, April 10, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Friday, April 11, 1:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Crypto Task Force Roundtable. The Theme is “Between a Block and a Hard Place: Tailoring Regulation for Crypto Trading”.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

Tuesday, April 8, 10:30 a.m. -- Acting FDIC Chairman Travis Hill will speak at the American Bankers Association Washington Summit.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Housing Finance Agency

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

Thursday, April 10, 8:30 a.m. (Chicago time) –FTC Chair Andrew Ferguson will speak at the Stigler Center Antitrust and Competition Conference at the Booth School of Business in Chicago.

Farm Credit Administration

Thursday, April 10, 10:00 a.m. – the FCA Board will meet to discuss the Quarterly Report on Economic Conditions and Farm Credit System Condition and Performance

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

Wednesday, April 9, 10:00 a.m. the FCIA Board will meet. No agenda has been released yet.

Small Business Administration

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

Monday – Wednesday, April 7 – 9 – The American Bankers Association holds its annual Washington Summit.

Think Tanks and Other Events

Tuesday, April 8, 4:00 p.m. – R Street will host with Finpublica, Impact Capital and Liberty Venturea will a virtual discussion, on "Liberty, the Markets, and Sustainability: The Capitalist Case for Sustainable Finance."
Wednesday, April 9, 8:30 a.m.: Punchbowl News will hold a discussion on the news of the day and investing in America. Speakers will include Bobby Franklin, President and CEO of the National Venture Capital Association; Drew Maloney, CEO of the American Investment Council; and Representative August Pfluger (R-Texas).
Wednesday, April 9, 9:00 a.m. – The US Chamber of Commerce holds its Critical Minerals Summit in Washington, D.C.
Thursday, April 10, 9:30 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics and the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas hold a conference, beginning at 9:30 a.m., on "Outlook for North American Trade and Immigration."

Francis Kelly 4/4/25 Francis Kelly 4/4/25

The Global Week Ahead

Trump’s “Liberation Day” Finally Arrives, Special Elections in Florida, EU Defense and Foreign Ministers Meet, China and Russia’s Foreign Ministers Talk Ukraine, and Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Lagarde Closely Watched Speeches

March 30 - April 6, 2025

After months of expectation and many questions, President Trump's "Liberation Day" arrives on Wednesday. It is likely to establish a wide sweep of reciprocal tariffs impacting many sectors and countries.

While details remain murky, leaving financial markets jittery, President Trump announced a 25% tariff on autos last week (that takes effect on Thursday) as well as a 25% secondary tax on any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela. There is speculation Trump will focus mostly on the "Dirty 15." Which countries exactly are on this list is not clear, but it is expected to include China, the EU, Mexico, Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Canada, India, Thailand, Switzerland, Malaysia, Indonesia, Cambodia, and South Africa.

Elsewhere in the US this week, several elections are being held, which are being seen as indicators of referendums on President Trump's policies. Two of the elections are in Florida to replace two Republican members of the House of Representatives - one being current National Security Advisor Michael Walz and the other to fill the seat of former Congressman Matt Gaetz, who resigned in the face of a blistering Congressional Ethics Committee report suggesting he had committed multiple crimes.

The other major election is for a state supreme court seat in Wisconsin. Republicans nationally have poured money into the campaign – led by Elon Musk, who has contributed millions to support the Republican candidate.

In Europe, EU Defense and Foreign Ministers will gather in Warsaw, Poland, to discuss the Ukrainian War and how to further push forward mutual defense and security planning. Also this week, the EU Parliament will discuss the EU's common foreign, defense, and security policy objectives for 2025 with EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas. They are set to call on the EU to invest more in its defense sector, which also means increasing military and political support for Ukraine. The vote will take place on Wednesday and vote on additional funding to support the effort.

Meanwhile, in Moscow this week, China Foreign Minister Wang Yi will meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to discuss the Ukraine War, relations with the US, and other matters of mutual concern. The meeting could result in China showing a willingness to play a role in the effort to reach a cease-fire in Ukraine – and likely complicate the overall talks.

On the global economic radar screen this week, markets will listen closely to speeches Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell gives Friday on the state of the economy and European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde on Tuesday at an ECB AI Conference.

Looking at the flow of major economic reports being released this week, the US ISM Indices (for manufacturing and services) are out this week. In Europe, the ECB's last interest rate meeting minutes are out on Wednesday. Also this week, Germany's factory orders and French industrial production figures are out this week.

In Asia, China's official PMI report is out on Monday, and the Caixin indices are out on Tuesday and Thursday. Japan's Tankan Survey is out on Tuesday, and the overall economic activity report is on Monday.

Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, March 30, 2025

Global

· Eid al-Fitr will be observed. It is the first of the two official holidays celebrated within Islam. Eid al-Fitr is celebrated by Muslims worldwide because it marks the end of the month-long dawn-to-dusk fasting of Ramadan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will meet with his Japanese counterpart in Tokyo, Japan, where they may discuss Japan's plans for defense spending.

· Bolivian ex-President Evo Morales leads meeting to create a new political party in Villa Tunari, Bolivia.

· Opening session of the Assembly of Governors of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) in Santiago, Chile.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The trade ministers of South Korea, Japan and China will meet in Seoul, South Korea, to discuss economic cooperation, including progress on a free trade agreement.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· European Daylights Savings time begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis will meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem, Israel.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, March 31, 2025

Global

· India, Iran, Malaysia, Nigeria, Singapore, Turkey, UAE all celebrate Eid e-Fetr (End of Ramadan) holiday. Financial markets closed.

· Today is an official holiday at the United Nations. UN Headquarters are closed.

· In London, the International Border Security Summit on tackling criminal networks leading migrant smuggling takes place through April 1.

· The OECD releases report on “The Ocean Economy to 2050” during the SOS Ocean summit in Paris.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump is expected to review proposals for the construction of his Golden Dome project which would replicate the Israeli Iron Dome defense system but in this case would be satellite based.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (February)/ Nominal Budget Balance (February)/ BCB Focus Market Readout/ Federal Tax Revenues (January & February)

· Chile Copper Production (February)/ Industrial Production (February)/ Manufacturing Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

· USA Chicago PMI (March)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (March)/ Prospective Plantings & Quarterly Grain Stocks – Corn/ Cotton/ Soy/ Wheat 2025

· Colombia Unemployment Rate (February)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (February)

· Uruguay Balance of Trade (February)

· Costa Rica Current Account Q4

· El Salvador GDP Growth Rate Q4

· Argentina Tax Revenue (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit Moscow for meetings through April 2 to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. The meeting, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry, will focus on the Ukraine War.

· The presidents of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan will meet in Khujand, Tajikistan, for their first-ever trilateral summit.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The Reserve Bank of Australia meets and announce their interest rate decision.

· South Korea Industrial Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February), Short-selling will resume for all shares on the Seoul’s stock market for the first time in five years.

· Japan Retail Sales (February)/ Industrial Production (February)/ Housing Starts (February)/ Construction Orders (February)

· New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (March)

· Australia Housing Credit (February)/ Private Sector Credit (February)

· China NBS Manufacturing/ Non-Manufacturing/ General PMI (March)

· Thailand Retail Sales (January)/ Current Account (February)/ Private Consumption (February)/ Private Investment (February)

· Hong Kong Retail Sales (February)

· Sri Lanka Unemployment Rate Q4

· Pakistan Consumer Confidence (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· In Belgium, trade unions are due to stage a general strike over the government’s proposed labor market reforms. Departing flights from Brussels airport and Charleroi airport are set to be cancelled for the day.

· In Turkey, large protests are expected to continue throughout the week over the arrest of Ekrem Imamoglu, Istanbul’s Mayor and the 2028 opposition presidential candidate.

· In Paris, the court decision is due in far-right leader Marine Le Pen’s trial over allegedly using European parliament funds to pay party workers.

· Stamp Duty Land Tax reduced rate of £250,000 ends in England and Northern Ireland.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Governing Council Member Fabio Panetta gives a speech in Rome, Italy.

· European Central Bank Governing Council Member Francois Villery gives a speech in Paris.

· Germany Retail Sales (February)/ Import Prices (February)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (March)/ Bavaria CPI (March)/ Brandenburg CPI (March)/ Hesse CPI (March)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (March)/ Saxony CPI (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)

· Hungary Balance of Trade (February)/ Gross Wage (January)/ PPI (February)

· Poland Inflation Rate (March)

· Spain Current Account (January)

· Slovenia Inflation Rate (March)

· Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (February)/ Mortgage Lending & Approvals (February)/ M4 Money Supply (February)/ Net Lending to Individuals (February)

· Greece Retail Sales (January)

· Italy Inflation Rate (March)

· Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate (March)

· Serbia Balance of Trade (February)/ Industrial Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

· Ukraine Current Account (February)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

· Russia M2 Money Supply (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Inflation Expectations (March)

· Kuwait M2 Money Supply (February)/ Private Bank Lending (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa M3 Money Supply (February)/ Private Sector Credit (February)/ Balance of Trade (February)

· Kenya Inflation Rate (March)

· Egypt M2 Money Supply (February)

Tuesday, April 1, 2025

Global

· France assumes the presidency of the UN Security Council for the month of April. There will be a press briefing by Jérôme Bonnafont, the Permanent Representative of France to the United Nations and President of the Security Council discussing the agenda for the month.   

· The BRICS Contact Group on Climate Change and Sustainable Development meets in Brazil.

· OPEC+ nations will begin gradually reducing voluntary oil production cuts.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· In Florida, Florida holds a pair of special elections to fill the House of Representatives seats vacated by Michael Waltz, picked as national security adviser by Donald Trump, and Matt Gaetz, the US president’s first choice for attorney-general. Republicans are expected to easily retake both seats.

· The hotly contested election for an open Wisconsin Supreme Court seat will be held.

· The US is expected to publish an action plan to address Chinese intellectual property theft by April 1.

· A U.S. deal to purchase two Panama ports from Hong Kong company CK Hutchison Holdings will likely be delayed past the April 2 deadline as Beijing conducts a regulatory review.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin will give a speech and participate in a conversation at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (February)

· Mexico Business Confidence (March)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

· USA Redbook (March/29)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (March)/ JOLTs Job Openings (February)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (April)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (March)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (March/28)

· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (March)

· Uruguay Current Account Q4

· Peru Inflation Rate (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· South Korea’s Constitutional Court will likely make a final decision on the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol.

· Vietnamese Foreign Minister Bui Thanh Son will meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Moscow.

· India's Parliament will hold a budget session.

· Pakistan's Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif will visit Germany through April 3.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (March)/ Retail Sales (February)/ RBA Interest Rate Decision/ Commodity Prices (March)/ RBA Press Conference/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (March)

· Japan Unemployment Rate (February)/ Tankan Large All Industry Capex Q1/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (March)

· South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)/ Budget Balance (February)

· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

· Singapore URA Property Index Q1

· China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (March)/ Current Account Final Q4

· Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (March)

· Pakistan Inflation Rate (March)/ Wholesale Prices (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)

· New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (April/01)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Germany coalition talks between the CDU/CSU Parties and the SPD will continue and may result in an agreement and announcement.

· The EU Parliament will assess the outcome of the 20 March European Council, with Presidents António Costa and Ursula von der Leyen. The summit focused on the EU’s competitiveness, Ukraine, defense and security, the Middle East, the EU’s next long-term budget, migration, and multilateralism. Later in the day, Members of Parliament will discuss the EU's common foreign, defense and security policy objectives for 2025 with EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas. They are set to call on the EU to invest more in its defense sector, which also means increasing military and political support for Ukraine. MEPs may also advocate expanding the EU’s presence in the Middle East and doing more to support EU enlargement countries. The vote will take place on Wednesday, followed by a press conference.

· In the UK, the National Living Wage and National Minimum Wage increases go into effect.

· Slovak President Peter Pellegrini will receive Polish President Andrzej Duda for a bilateral meeting.

· In Tbilisi, Georgia, Pro-EU protesters will stage anti-government rally.

· Today is Cyprus National Day, a public holiday celebrating the beginning of the revolt against British occupation.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give a speech at the ECB’s AI Conference in Frankfurt, Germany. Philip Lane will also speak.

· European Central Bank Executive Board member Piero Cipollone gives keynote speech at Regional Governors’ Meeting organized by the Croatian National Bank in Osijek, Croatia

· Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee external member Megan Greene gives keynote speech at the UK Women in Economics Network event in London.

· Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (March)

· Romania Unemployment Rate (February)

· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

· Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (March)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

· Switzerland Retail Sales (February)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (March)

· Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (March)

· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

· Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (March)/ New Car Sales (March)

· Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (March)/ Unemployment Rate (February)

· France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (March)

· Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (March)

· Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (March)/ ECB Cipollone Speech/ Inflation Rate Flash (March)/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ CPI Flash (March)/ ECB President Lagarde Speech/ ECB Lane Speech

· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)/ Unemployment Rate (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (March)

· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (March)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (March)

Wednesday, April 2, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is President Trump’s “Liberation Day” in which launch a series of stiff tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and number of other countries.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech entitled “Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policymaking” at the Griswold Center for Economic Policy Students and Julis-Rabinowitz Center for Public Policy and Finance 2025 Public Talk (virtual).

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (March)/ Bank Lending (February)/ Industrial Production (February)

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (March/28)/ MBA Purchase Index (March/28)/ ADP Employment Change (March)/ Factory Orders (February)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (March/28)/ Fed Kugler Speech/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (March)/ Total Vehicle Sales (March)

· Colombia Exports (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) Summit begins in Bangkok, Thailand. The seven-nation regional grouping comprising mostly South Asian countries who will focus on strengthening transport connectivity. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is among the leaders attending the summit of the BIMSTEC, or Bay of Bengal. BIMSTEC includes Bangladesh, Bhutan, Myanmar, Nepal and Sri Lanka besides India and Thailand.

· Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Thailand.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Building Permits (February)

· Australia Ai Group Industry Index (March)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (March)/ Building Permits (February)/ Private House Approvals (February)/ RBA Chart Pack

· South Korea Inflation Rate (March)

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

· Philippines PPI (February)

· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (March)/ M3 Money Supply (March/21)

· Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Defense Ministers through April 3 in Warsaw, Poland.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Romania PPI (February)

· France Budget Balance (February)

· Spain Unemployment Change (March)/ Tourist Arrivals (February)

· Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (March)

· Ireland Unemployment Rate (March)

· Russia Summary of the Key Rate Discussion/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ Business Confidence (March)/ Real Wage Growth (January)/ Retail Sales (February)/ GDP (January & February)

· Poland Interest Rate Decision (April)

· Italy New Car Registrations (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Iraq will observe Faili Martyrs Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

Thursday, April 3, 2025

Global

· BRIC Environment Ministers will meet in Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The United States' 25% tariffs on finished passenger vehicles will go into effect.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech entitled “U.S. Economic Outlook and Central Bank Communications” at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and University of Virginia Conference on Financial Intermediaries, Markets, and Monetary Policy, Atlanta, Georgia.

· Federal Reserve Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech on the economic outlook at the University of Pittsburgh 2025 McKay Lecture, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

· SA Challenger Job Cuts (March)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Initial Jobless Claims (March/29)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)/ ISM Services PMI (March)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/03)/ Fed Balance Sheet (April/02)

· Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (January)

· Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

· Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

· Uruguay Inflation Rate (March)

· Paraguay Inflation Rate (March)

· Argentina Tax Revenue (March)

· Colombia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock and Assistant Governor Christopher Kent appear before Senate panel on budget.

· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Australia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (March)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ RBA Financial Stability Review

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (March/29)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (March/29)/ Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMI Final (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (March)

· Singapore S&P Global PMI (March)

· China Caixin Composite & Services PMI (March)

· Thailand Business Confidence (March)

· Sri Lanka Current Account Q4

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NATO foreign ministers gather for a two-day meeting in Brussels. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte will address the media on both days.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos gives keynote speech on `Financial Stability in Uncertain Time’ at 2025 Chief Executives Forum organized by International Federation of Accountants Forum (IFAC) in Amsterdam.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel at OECD Lectures of the Governor event in Paris.

· The European Central Bank releases last month’s monetary policy meeting minutes.

· Ireland AIB Services PMI (March)

· Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

· Switzerland Inflation Rate (March)

· Turkey Inflation Rate (March)/ PPI (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/28)

· Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (March)

· Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (March)

· France HCOB Composite & Services PMI (March)

· Euro Area ECB Guindos Speech/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (March)/ PPI (February)/ ECB Schnabel Speech/ ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

· Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (March)

· Great Britain S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Jordan PPI (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt S&P Global PMI (March)

· Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (March)

· South Africa S&P Global PMI (March)

· Ghana S&P Global PMI (March)

Friday, April 4, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Microsoft celebrates being founded 50 years ago.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing (SABEW) Annual Conference, Arlington, Virginia.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr gives a speech on artificial intelligence and banking at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco State University, and University of California Santa Cruz 2025 Fintech Conference, San Francisco, California.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the payments system at the 2025 New York Fed Innovation Conference, New York, New York.

· Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

· Canada Unemployment Rate (March)/ Employment Change (March)/ Participation Rate (March)

· USA Unemployment Rate (March)/ Participation Rate (March/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (April/04)

· Ecuador Inflation Rate (March)

· Uruguay Unemployment Rate (February)

· Brazil Balance of Trade (March)

· Colombia PPI (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The EU-Central Asia Summit, the first between the EU and leaders from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan takes place in Uzbekistan.

· Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Sri Lanka for a three-day state visit after the BIMSTEC summit in Thailand and hold discussions with Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayaka. The island nation was seen as becoming more pro-China during the administration of former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, but Dissanayake, who took office in September last year, chose India for his first overseas visit, a move widely seen as tipping the balance between the two big powers. Several memoranda of understanding are expected to be exchanged.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Household Spending (February)

· Philippines Inflation Rate (March)

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Thailand Inflation Rate (March)

· India HSBC Composite & Services PMI Final (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/28)

· Singapore Retail Sales (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (March)

· Germany Factory Orders (February)/ HCOB Construction PMI (March)/ New Car Registrations (March)

· Hungary Industrial Production (February)

· France Industrial Production (February)/ HCOB Construction PMI (March)/ New Car Registrations (March)

· Spain Industrial Production (February)

· Italy HCOB Construction PMI (March)/ Retail Sales (February)

· Great Britain New Car Sales (March)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (March)

· Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (March)/ ECB Guindos Speech

· Slovenia Balance of Trade (February)

· Serbia PPI (March)

· Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

· Russia Vehicle Sales (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (March)

· Jordan GDP Growth Rate Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Senegal celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ghana Inflation Rate (March)

Saturday, April 5, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Government’s TikTok ban comes into force. Chinese owner ByteDance is required to either shut the app down or sell.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Euro Area ECB Schnabel Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, April 6, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Brazilian right-wing supporters will demonstrate in Sao Paulo in support of former President Jair Bolsonaro.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Daylight Savings ends in Australia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (March)/ Foreign Direct Investment (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Industrial Production (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Tourist Arrivals (March)

· Indonesia Motorbike Sales (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 3/28/25 Francis Kelly 3/28/25

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Bessent Moves to Take Control of Banking Regulation, SEC Chair-Nominee Atkins and Comptroller-Nominee Gould Get Their Confirmation Hearing, and Fed Governor Barr Talks Bank Regulation

As my kids used to say when they were little, “Spring has spronged.” Daffodils are popping up all over Washington, and spring energy is showing up on the Trump regulatory agenda. Numerous reports have leaked out that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is drafting recommendations for ways to streamline the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation – likely pushing to merge the two agencies. There is no word on how the Federal Reserve would factor into these plans, but it sets up a possible fight with Congress on the structure of bank regulation overall..

We would note that Semafor reported on all this last week (and, strangely, there was not much of a reaction to the in-depth report). According to the report, Bessent is going to make the recommendations following the Senate confirmation of Luke Pettit as the Treasury Assistant Secretary for Financial Institutions. Pettit would likely run point on the effort.

Pettit’s Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearing is this Thursday, where he, along with SEC Chair-nominee Paul Atkins and Comptroller of the Currency-nominee Jonathan Gould, will face tough questions from Democrats on the committee. Ranking Committee Democrat Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) is primed to go after Atkins in particular, sending a long letter to him this past week asking numerous questions about his business and his policy views. It should be quite an interesting hearing.

Finally, we were interested to see former Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr – who stepped down from the role two weeks ago and is now “just” a Fed Governor – speaking g on bank regulation policy this coming week at the Banking Institute. Barr clearly is going to keep a strong focus on the issue, and it will be interesting to watch his role evolve as fellow Fed Governor Michelle Bowman gets ready for confirmation hearings to replace him as Vice Chair for Supervision. In some ways, this is just a reversal of roles, as Bowman was a frequent speaker and commentator (and critic) of bank regulatory policy under Barr.

There are several interesting think tank and trade association events this week, along with five separate hearings in the House of Representatives looking at a variety of regulatory issues. Below is what else we are watching in the Washington financial regulatory world this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· Tuesday, March 25, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Finance Committee holds a hearing on the nomination of Frank Bisignano as commissioner of the Social Security Administration.

· Thursday, March 27, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee will hold the confirmation hearing for Paul Atkins for Chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission, Jonathan Gould to be Comptroller of the Currency, and Luke Pettit to the Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Financial Institutions.

House of Representatives

· Tuesday, March 25, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing on "Beyond Silicon Valley: Expanding Access to Capital Across America."

· Tuesday, March 25, 10:00 a.m. – The House Agriculture Committee holds a hearing on "The CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) at 50: Examining the Past and Future of Commodity Markets."

· Wednesday, March 26, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Financial Institutions Subcommittee holds a hearing on "A New Era for the CFPB (Consumer Financial Protection Bureau): Balancing Power and Reprioritizing Consumer Protections."

· Wednesday, March 26, 10:00 a.m. – The House Small Business Committee holds a hearing on "The Golden Age: Unleashing Main Street Through Deregulation."

· Wednesday, March 26, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions Subcommittee hearing on "Following the Money: Tools and Techniques to Combat Fraud

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Monday, March 24, 3:10 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr gives a speech on Small Business Lending at the Advancing Innovation and Fairness in Small Business Finance, Washington, D.C.

· Tuesday, March 25, 8:40 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech on the Economic Landscape and Entrepreneurship at the U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce 2025 Legislative Summit, Washington D.C.

· Friday, March 28, 12:15 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr participates in a discussion on banking policy at the 2025 Banking Institute, Charlotte, North Carolina.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Monday, March 24, 9:10 a.m. – Acting SEC Chair Mark Uyeda speaks at the SIFMA C&L 2025 Annual Seminar in Austin, Texas.

· Thursday, March 27, 9:00 a.m. – The Securities and Exchange Commission holds a discussion on "Artificial Intelligence in the Financial Industry." Acting SEC Chairman Mark Uyeda, SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce, and SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw will participate.

· Thursday, March 27, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Monday, March 24, 1:40 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will deliver a keynote address at the SIFMA C&L 2025 Annual Seminar Women’s Luncheon in Austin, Texas.

· Wednesday, March 26, 12:00 p.m. (GMT) – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will participate in a policy roundtable convened by the International Swaps and Derivatives Association in London.

· Wednesday, March 26, 9:50 a.m. – CFTC Commissioner Summer K. Mersinger will participate in the Crypto, Derivatives, and the Road Ahead: A Conversation with the CFTC and NFA panel at the Digital Chamber’s DC Blockchain Summit in Washington, D.C.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· Monday, March 24, 3:40 p.m. – Acting Comptroller of the Currency Rodney E. Hood will discuss financial inclusion at the Homeownership and Housing Policy Conference hosted by the National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals in Washington, D.C.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Housing Finance Agency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· March 23 -26 – SIFMA holds its C&L 2025 Annual Seminar is being held in Austin, Texas.

· The Digital Chamber’s Blockchain Summit will be held in Washington, D.C. Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-SC) and House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill (R-AK) will speak.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Tuesday, March 25, 1:00 p.m. – The Urban Institute holds a discussion on "Improving Household Financial Security and Upward Mobility: Insights for Effective Policy and Practice."

Recommended Reads

Trump’s ‘Strategic Bitcoin Reserve’ Makes No Sense The CATO Institute
Bitcoin, the pioneer free-market digital asset, which was originally supposed to function beyond governments’ reach, is now being boosted by at least one of the governments it was supposed to defy: ours. When bitcoin was invented in 2008, its anonymous (but certainly libertarian) inventors hoped it would rival official currencies, especially the US dollar. Instead of being regulated by governments, the quantity of bitcoin would be controlled by a decentralized and tamper-proof computer program, or “protocol,” set to have it gradually approach a limit of 21 million coins. By guaranteeing bitcoins’ scarcity, the protocol would make them an attractive alternative to monies that governments can print to their hearts’ content, which tend to depreciate for that reason.

Francis Kelly 3/23/25 Francis Kelly 3/23/25

The Global Week Ahead

U.S.-Led Ukraine Peace Talks Resume in Saudi Arabia, Trump Officials to Make A “Private Visit” to Greenland, Canda’s Carney Calls Snap Elections, China Hosts Two Major Economic Forums, and It Is A Heavy Week of Economic Reports

March 23 - 30, 2025

Spring is in the air in the Northern Hemisphere after a pretty rough winter. And with it comes a significant uptick of diplomatic activity globally. This coming week, U.S. diplomats will again travel to Ryad, Saudi Arabia for talks with Russian counterparts in a bid to reach an agreement on a ceasefire in Ukraine. As we reported last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin seemed to make some positive remarks toward reaching a deal but then reiterated a host of unpalatable demands on the US, NATO, and Ukraine – including removing NATO forces from Eastern European NATO member states and no NATO membership for Ukraine. This was followed by some of the most intensive missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian civilian targets since the war began.

One aspect of the talks will focus on how to make shipping safer in the Black Sea as a means to reaching a cease-fire. We continue to pessimistic Putin – who is celebrating his 25th year in power this week – will relent and agree on any peace deal.

Also this week, U.S. National Security Advisor Mike Walz and 2nd Lady Usha Vance are scheduled to make a “private visit” to Greenland as the newly elected government there begins forming. What exactly they are doing – and why the 2nd Lady is involved – remains a mystery at this time of writing.

Meanwhile, newly chosen Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has called for snap elections on April 28. Carney said he needs a strong mandate to deal with President Trump, saying Trump “wants to break us so America can own us.” Carney went on to say Canada is facing “the most significant crisis of our lifetimes because of President Trump’s unjustified trade actions and his threats to our sovereignty.” Oddly, this comes as President Trump claimed British King Charles II secretly offered – and Trump indicated he was interested in pursuing –the U.S. to become an associate member of the British Commonwealth. The Commonwealth, which was created in 1926, is made up of 56 countries – including Canada – which were originally British colonies.

China will be holding two major economic forums this week which are likely to give investors greater insight into the state of China’s economy and what new steps Beijing may take to try to further bolster the economy. The first is the China Development Forum (CDF) and the second is the Boao Forum for Asia (BFA) which is commonly referred to as the “Davos of Asia.” The CDF comes as foreign investment in China has been rapidly shrinking. Major US and European CEOs are scheduled to attend and are expected to meet with President Xi Jinping.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, it is going to be a big week with lots of new data coming out globally. Inflation indicators are going to be released in the US, Japan, and Europe.

Looking first at the US, the February PCE and personal income and spending data are due out on Friday as well as the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index on Tuesday. The Conference Board’s report will be closely looked at by investors following the University of Michigan’s economic reports last week which showed consumer sentiment had sunk to its lowest level since 2022.

Additionally, as the U.S. Congress struggles to hammer out a tax and budget deal via a giant Reconciliation package, the Congressional Budget Office is publishing its federal debt outlook on Wednesday and the statutory limit report on Thursday, putting more pressure on how far Congress can go cutting taxes and dealing more aggressively with the deficit.

Turning to Europe, the UK releases CPI and RPI data on Wednesday while the Eurozone March flash CPIs are out on Friday. Germany releases the Ifo survey on Tuesday and we will see consumer sentiment numbers from Germany, Italy, and France this week, too.

In Asia, the Central Bank of Japan releases recent meeting minutes as the Tokyo CPI is out Friday. Australia releases its budget this week, too. And in China, the 1-year MLF rate is set on Tuesday while we will see industrial profit reports on Thursday.

Below are the rest of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we will be watching in the coming week:

Sunday, March 23, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will call for snap elections for April 28. Carney is citing “the most significant crisis of our lifetime” caused by President Trump and the tariffs he has placed on the country.

· Argentine President Javier Milei will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv, Israel.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam and First Lady Jane Yumiko Ittogi begin a state visit to Belgium and Luxembourg.

· Pakistan celebrates Republic Day. The government will hold large military parades showing a wide array of weapons, including nuclear-capable weapons systems.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Romania Presidential Election (1st Round)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas will visit Cairo, Egypt to discuss the situation in Gaza.

· Turkey's main opposition party, the Republican People's Party, will hold presidential primaries ahead of Turkey's 2028 presidential election.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, March 24, 2025

Global

· US-Ukraine talks on establishing a cease-fire take place in Saudi Arabia through March 24. Negotiators are expected to discuss how to ensure safer shipping in the Black Sea as part of the talks

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the maintenance of international peace and security: Advancing adaptability in UN Peace Operations – Responding to new realities. The Secretary-General will deliver remarks.

· At the United Nations, Filippo Grandi, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Ms. Amy Pope, International Organization for Migration Director General, and a representative of the Bangladesh Government, will launch the 2025-26 Joint Response Plan (JRP) for the Rohingya Humanitarian Crisis in Bangladesh. The first-ever multi-year funding appeal for the Rohingya Response in Bangladesh brings together 113 partners, including Bangladeshi organizations, to reach some 1.48 million people including Rohingya refugees and host communities in its first year.

· The 1st meeting of BRICS Senior Energy Officials Committee meets in Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Israeli officials are expected to travel to Washington to discuss Iran’s nuclear program and Israel’s demarcation talks with Lebanon.

· Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa and leftist Luisa González debate before the presidential runoff.

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr gives a speech on Small Business Lending at the Advancing Innovation and Fairness in Small Business Finance, Washington, D.C.

· Chile PPI (February)

· Mexico Economic Activity (January)/ Mid-month Core Inflation Rate (March)/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (March)

· USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (February)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (March)

· El Salvador GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Current Account Q4

· Paraguay PPI (February)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva visits Japan from Monday to Thursday. He is to meet Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, and the pair are expected to agree on an action plan in the areas of investment and security.

· South Korea's Constitutional Court will rule on the impeachment of acting President Han Duck-soo, which may allow him to resume his duties in that role.

· The Asian Development Bank publishes its Asian Economic Integration report.

· The China Development Forum will begin in Beijing. The Forum is being held as China is seeing plunging inbound investments and growing uncertainties after sweeping U.S. import tariffs. Some of the executives are reportedly meeting President Xi Jinping after the forum.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia 2025–26 Federal Budget/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (March)

· Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (March)

· India HSBC Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (March)

· Singapore Inflation Rate (February)

· Taiwan Unemployment Rate (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Portugal’s Foreign Minister Paulo Rangel visits China for bilateral talks.

· In Berlin, there will be a Press conference of the conservative party CDU general secretary Carsten Linnemann to inform on the stand of the negotiations on the formation of a new governing coalition.

· NATO holds Dynamic Mariner 25 maritime exercises in Spain.

· Isar Aerospace test flight of its Spectrum launcher, first flight of an orbital vehicle launched from continental Europe, launches from Andøya, Norway.

· Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets with the Board of Trustees of the Gorchakov Fund think tank in Moscow.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives the distinguished lecture at the University of Leicester.

· Switzerland Current Account Q4

· France HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (March)

· Germany HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (March)

· Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (March)

· Greece Current Account (January)

· Poland Retail Sales (February)/ M3 Money Supply (February)

· Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels. They will hold a public policy debate on the Communication on a Vision for agriculture and food, published by the European Commission on 19 February 2025.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Health Ministers in Brussels through March 25.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Lebanon Inflation Rate (February)

· Israel Composite Economic Index (February)

· Kuwait M2 Money Supply (February)/ Private Bank Lending (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, March 25, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Syria).

· The BRICS Sherpas Meeting takes place in Brazil through March 24.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Brazil’s Supreme Court considers whether to try ex-president Jair Bolsonaro on coup charges.

· Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will visit Japan through March 26.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech on the Economic Landscape and Entrepreneurship at the U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce 2025 Legislative Summit, Washington D.C.

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives opening remarks before the 2025 New York Fed Regional and Community Banking Conference.

· Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ FGV Consumer Confidence (March)

· Mexico Retail Sales (January)

· Canada Manufacturing Sales (February)

· USA Redbook (March/22)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (January)/ House Price Index (January)/ CB Consumer Confidence (March)/ New Home Sales (February)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (March)/ Money Supply (February)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (March/21)/ Building Permits (February)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

· Colombia Business Confidence (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Boao Forum, sometimes known as 'Asia's Davos,' starts on Tuesday on the southern Chinese island of Hainan under the banner "Asia in the Changing World: Towards a Shared Future." Bangladesh's leader Muhammad Yunus is expected to address the forum before heading to Beijing for a meeting with Xi on Friday.

· Australia’s Treasurer Jim Chalmers presents the federal budget.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Consumer Confidence (March)

· Australia RBA Jones Speech

· The Bank of Japan meeting notes are published.

· Malaysia Coincident Index (January)/ Leading Index (January)

· Taiwan Industrial Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

· Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

· Thailand New Car Sales (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The new German Parliament will convene its first session since federal elections on Feb. 23

· In the Netherlands, NATO's largest air defense exercise Joint Project Optic Windmill (JPOW).

· Today is Greek Independence Day, celebrating when the country won the Greek Revolution in 1821 freeing them from 400 years of occupation by the Ottoman Empire.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Union New Car Registrations (February)

· Turkey Business Confidence (March)/ Capacity Utilization (March)

· Spain PPI (February)/ Consumer Confidence (February)

· Germany Ifo Business Climate/ Current Conditions/ Expectations (March)

· Poland Unemployment Rate (February)

· Slovenia Business Confidence (March)/ Tourist Arrivals (February)

· Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (March)

· Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (March)/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Unemployment Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (January)/ Consumer Confidence Q1

Wednesday, March 26, 2025

Global

· The BRICS 1st Finance and Central Bank Deputies meets in Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Governors of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) hold their annual meeting in Santiago, Chile though March 30.

Economic Reports/Events –

· St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks and participates in a moderated conversation on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before a Paducah Area Chamber of Commerce/Greater Paducah Economic Development luncheon.

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (March/21)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (March/21)/ MBA Purchase Index (March/21)/ Durable Goods Orders (February)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (March/21)

· Brazil Current Account (February)/ Foreign Direct Investment (February)

· Canada Wholesale Sales (February)/ BoC Summary of Deliberations

· Paraguay GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Current Account Q4

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· South Korea’s opposition official Lee Jae-myung will face a legal verdict on charges of violating the election law. If convicted he will be banned from public office, and his party will have to select another candidate ahead of the next election.

· Today is Independence Day in Bangladesh.

· The Bangkok Auto Show begins and runs through April 6.

· SEMICON China 2025, a massive semiconductor expo, begins in Shanghai, China.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Business Confidence (March)

· Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (February)

· Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

· Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

· Japan Coincident Index (January)/ Leading Economic Index (January)

· Singapore Industrial Production (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· UK Finance minister Rachel Reeves delivers Spring Statement on the economy.

· Today is the 25th anniversary of Vladimir Putin being elected President of Russia.

· Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets with Esteban Lazo Hernandez, head of Cuba’s parliament, in Moscow.

· Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin presents a government report to the State Duma.

· The Russian Arctic Forum begins in Murmansk, Russia, and runs through March 27.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Ban Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone Participates in panel discussion entitled ‘Philipp Sandner Award in Digital Finance Research’ at 11th Crypto Assets Conference organized by the Frankfurt School Blockchain Center in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Ireland Consumer Confidence (March)

· Great Britain Inflation Rate (February)/ PPI Input & Output (February)/ Retail Price Index (February)/ Spring Economic Statement

· France Consumer Confidence (March)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (February)/ Jobseekers Total (February)

· European Central Bank Non-Monetary Policy Meeting

· Spain GDP Growth Rate Q4

· Russia Corporate Profits (January)/ Industrial Production (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mozambique Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, March 27, 2025

Global

· The UN the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) followed by consultations.

· The inaugural Global Conference on AI, Security and Ethics begins in Geneva and runs through March 28.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US National Security Advisor Mike Walz and Second Lady Usha Vance will travel to Greenland - billed as a “private visit” – to participate in talks with the incoming new Greenland government.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin delivers the H. Parker Willis Lecture in Political Economy at Washington and Lee University.

· Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (March)

· Mexico Balance of Trade (February)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Canada Average Weekly Earnings (January)

· USA GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Corporate Profits Q4/ GDP Price Index Q4/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (February)/ Initial Jobless Claims (March/22)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (March/15)/ PCE Prices Q4/ Real Consumer Spending Q4/ Pending Home Sales (February)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (March/21)/ Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Index (March)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (March/27)/ Fed Barkin Speech/ Fed Balance Sheet (March/26)

· Argentina Current Account Q4/ Economic Activity (January)

· Colombia Cement Production (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te will hold the first "whole of society" civil defense drill during his term, part of a new initiative launched by the administration to assess and strengthen public preparedness. The exercise will incorporate complex disaster scenarios, including damage to critical infrastructure, and will verify the response capabilities of central and local government bodies. The test comes as tensions with China heat up, with Beijing's forces holding repeated military exercises near the island.

· French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot will visit Beijing, China, through March 28.

· Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will visit Phnom Penh, Cambodia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (March/22)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (March/22)

· China Industrial Profits (YTD) (February)

· Taiwan Consumer Confidence (March)

· Malaysia PPI (February)

· Pakistan Consumer Confidence (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· French President Emmanuel Macron will host in Paris another summit of European leaders considering participation in a "coalition of willing" to support Ukraine. Representatives of Canada, the EU, and UK will attend.

· EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic visits Beijing through March 29 to discuss a number of trade issues.

· French President Emmanuel Macron hosts Lebanese President Joseph Aoun in Paris.

· The EU Environmental Council will meet in Brussels. Ministers will focus on the environmental dimension of the clean industrial deal, which was presented by the Commission on 26 February 2025 as a joint roadmap for competitiveness and decarbonization. The clean industrial deal aims to bring together climate action and competitiveness under one overarching growth strategy, with a focus on energy intensive industries and clean tech. It puts a strong emphasis on circularity and envisages a range of measures to strengthen the circular economy, including a circular economy act, a green VAT initiative and a chemical industry package.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank General Council meeting

· European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde delivers a pre-recorded message at the conference "Mujeres en economía y finanzas" organized by Banco Central de Chile in Santiago, Chile.

· European Central Bank Executive Board Member Claudia Buch gives the introductory statement at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a speech at the 2025 IIF European Summit "Europe at a Crossroads: A Time to Act for Competitiveness and Growth" in Brussels, Belgium.

· European Central Bank Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel delivers the Mais Lecture “Financial literacy and monetary policy transmission” organized by Bayes Business School in London, United Kingdom.

· Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ Participation Rate (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/21)

· Euro Area Loans to Companies & Households (February)/ M3 Money Supply (February)

· Spain Retail Sales (February)/ Current Account (January)/ Business Confidence (March)

· Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (March)

· Russia GDP (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Unemployment Rate Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa PPI (February)

· Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (March)

Friday, March 28, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will visit Vietnam through March 29.

· U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth will visit Manila, Philippines, through March 29.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr participates in a discussion on banking policy at the 2025 Banking Institute, Charlotte, North Carolina.

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic moderates a Housing Finance Policy panel before the Third Annual Georgia Tech-Atlanta Fed Household Finance Conference.

· Brazil IGP-M Inflation (March)/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ Net Payrolls (February)

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (March)/ GDP (January)/ Budget Balance (January)

· Chile Unemployment Rate (February)

· Mexico Unemployment Rate (February)

· USA Personal Income & Spending (February)/ PCE Price Index (February)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations & Sentiment (March)/ Michigan Current Conditions (March)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (March/28)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Bangladesh's interim leader Muhammad Yunus will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping for bilateral talks in Beijing, China.

· The Philippines kicks off campaigning for local positions, including all seats in the House of Representatives, half in the Senate and city and provincial offices, ahead of mid-term elections. Within seven weeks, Filipinos will head off to polling stations to vote in one of the most crucial elections in recent memory. Experts widely regard it as a proxy battle between the political clans of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and of ex-President Rodrigo Duterte.

· Tajikistan holds elections for their upper house of parliament.

· Today is Serf’s Emancipation Day in Tibet.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (March)

· Japan Tokyo CPI (March)/ BoJ Summary of Opinions/ Construction Orders (February)

· Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

· Singapore Bank Lending (February)/ Imports/ Exports (February)/ PPI (February)

· Thailand Industrial Production (February)

· Malaysia M3 Money Supply (February)

· Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (March)/ Balance of Trade (February)

· India Bank Loan Growth (March/14)/ Deposit Growth (March/14)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/21)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU General Affairs Council (Cohesion) meets in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

European Central Bank Board Executive Board Member Luis de Guindos gives online remarks at the conference "VI Cumbre FEDEPE" organized by FEDEPE (Federation of Female Professionals).

· Germany GfK Consumer Confidence APR/ Unemployed Persons/ Change/ Rate (March)

· Turkey Economic Confidence Index (March)

· Great Britain Current Account Q4/ Goods Trade Balance (January)/ Retail Sales (February)/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Business Investment Q4/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (February)

· Hungary Current Account Q4/ Unemployment Rate (February)

· France Inflation Rate (March)/ Household Consumption (February)/ PPI (February)

· Slovakia Business Confidence (March)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

· Spain Inflation Rate (March)

· Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (March)

· Slovenia Retail Sales (February)

· Italy Business Confidence (March)/ Consumer Confidence (March)/ Industrial Sales (January)/ PPI (February)

· Euro Area Economic Sentiment (March)/ Consumer Confidence (March)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)/ Industrial Sentiment (March)/ Selling Price Expectations (March)/Services Sentiment (March)

· Greece PPI (February)/ Total Credit (February)

· Ireland Retail Sales (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Qatar Balance of Trade (February)

· Israel M1 Money Supply (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Kenya Inflation Rate (March)

Saturday, March 29, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will join US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Gen Nakatani, the Japanese Defence Minister, on the Pacific island of Iwo Jima for a joint memorial service to commemorate the 1945 battle that involved some of the fiercest fighting of the second world war and the location for the famous US marine flag raising image. According to the Financial Times. Hegseth is likely to use the occasion to lobby Japan to increase its defense spending.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Retail Sales (February)

· Thailand Current Account (February)/ Private Consumption & Investment (February)/ Retail Sales (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (February)/ Private Bank Lending (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 30, 2025

Global

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· European Daylights Savings time begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 3/21/25 Francis Kelly 3/21/25

“America’s Nuclear Umbrella Is Open and Must Stay Open”

“There’s no alternative to the American deterrent—not for the United States, and not for Europe.”

Note: We wanted to share this excellent analysis and essay by our friend and Scowcroft Group colleague Frank Miller. Frank served for three decades as a senior nuclear policy and arms control official in the Pentagon and on the National Security Council staff and is a principal at the Scowcroft Group. Eric Edelman is a Counselor at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments and co-hosts The Bulwark’s Shield of the Republic podcast. He was Under Secretary of Defense for policy from 2005 to 2009 during the George W. Bush presidency.

MANY EUROPEANS ARE BEGINNING to question (some honestly and some self-servingly) whether the United States’ extended nuclear deterrent still provides a shield over its allies. In fairness, this is a time for some transatlantic introspection. That said, it is also a time to be clear-eyed about what can and cannot be accomplished.

First, despite the official statements and pundits’ predictions emanating from Europe, there is no indication that the Trump administration is planning to modify the United States’ more than seventy-year pledge to use our conventional and nuclear forces to defend NATO. In a February 27 press conference, Trump affirmed his support of NATO’s key Article 5, a statement later confirmed to NBC News by a National Security Council official in a written statement that said: “President Trump is committed to NATO and Article V.”

Second, there is no European substitute for the U.S. nuclear umbrella. The independent British deterrent, while committed to NATO and coordinated with U.S. forces in NATO plans, is designed principally to impose unacceptable costs on Russia in response to an attack on Britain—and therefore to deter such an attack. But it has always been assumed that the U.K.’s extended deterrence commitments would be supported by much larger and more flexible U.S. forces. As for France, despite recent, repeated posturing by President Emmanuel Macron that the French nuclear deterrent force can assume the role currently played by the United States, the so-called force de frappe—by design and by doctrine—is, as French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu stated in late February, “French, and it will remain French.” Lecornu has also specifically rejected any pooling of France’s nuclear weapons capability. A strategy of “tearing an arm off the aggressor” may have made sense in the Cold War, when American nuclear forces were always the ultimate backstop (or backup), but such a strategy cannot be a substitute for the U.S. defense commitment under Article 5.

NATO, for over sixty years, has followed a policy of “flexible response,” planning to deter aggression by threatening to respond as the situation requires. NATO’s integrated response plans are developed according to this principle. NATO nations agree on a combined nuclear policy by participating in a variety of NATO forums, especially the Nuclear Planning Group. Some NATO nations have committed their aircraft to carry out wartime missions carrying U.S. nuclear weapons, while those planes (and American ones) are protected by fighters from other NATO states.

From the beginning of its nuclear weapons program, France has refused to take part in coordinated NATO activity involving nuclear weapons policy or planning. (One of the authors of this article was intimately involved in reaching out to the French in this regard for over a decade.) It has disdained joining NATO’s nuclear forums, even as an observer. It is notable, in this regard, that even when France returned to the alliance’s integrated military structure in 2009, it specifically chose not to join the Nuclear Planning Group. Its nuclear doctrine differs dramatically from NATO’s, advertising rigidity rather than flexibility. Even accepting the extremely unlikely hypothetical (for the sake of argument) that French policy would change, it is inconceivable that Paris would share with other allies the burden and risk of its nuclear deterrent, which was entirely predicated on the need to maintain national sovereignty.

Third, the idea that NATO would be strengthened if two or more of its members opted out of the Non-Proliferation Treaty to develop their own nuclear weapons is risible. Opening Pandora’s box to allow proliferation will create global uncertainties, as European proliferation would almost certainly propel proliferation elsewhere: There is a growing discussion in South Korea about restarting its nuclear weapons program, and the greater Middle East could see a proliferation race among several rival powers. A proliferated world, in which the possibility of the actual use of nuclear weapons is dramatically higher, would be extraordinarily dangerous. Even allowing the argument that the new nuclear states themselves might be more secure against direct coercion and aggression, the rest of Europe would be left in the cold. The American nuclear umbrella has been the most effective nonproliferation policy imaginable.

Finally, the idea that the United States should establish a nuclear weapons site in Poland (at the cost of hundreds of millions of dollars) is unlikely to fly with a Trump administration already seeking to cut infrastructure funding. It might even, paradoxically, be more of an accelerant than a deterrent, since it might become a tempting target for Russian pre-emptive strikes in a crisis. If Warsaw desires a nuclear role, it should have some of its pilots join existing NATO dual-capable squadrons.

The answer, however unsatisfactory to those neo-Gaullists seeking to achieve the impossible dream of a French-led Europe, is that every effort must be made to keep the American umbrella in place—and even to strengthen it—in the near term with a nuclear sea-launched cruise missile and in the mid-term with a standoff weapon for NATO’s dual-capable aircraft. If the French are serious about strengthening deterrence rather than virtue signaling about the European dimension of their independent deterrent, they should consider how Paris can practically add to NATO’s collective nuclear deterrent capabilities. A first step would be to join the Nuclear Planning Group, its subordinate bodies, and the alliance’s nuclear planning arrangements.

Francis Kelly 3/21/25 Francis Kelly 3/21/25

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