Fulcrum Perspectives
An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis, as well as book recommendations, travel observations, and cultural experiences - all of which we hope will be of interest to you.
Recommended Weekend Reads
Trump’s Major Focus on Latin America, Trudeau Resigns – Now What?, Agriculture Is A Major Factor For Ukraine Peace, Africa Needs A Payments Union, and The Evolution of Remote Working
January 10 - 12, 2025
Please find below our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend. And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.
The Americas
This Administration is Shaping Up to Be Latin America-First Ryan Berg/Foreign Policy
One of former U.S. President Ronald Reagan’s most lasting slogans of governance is that “personnel is policy.” Judged using Reagan’s mantra, it appears as though the incoming Trump team could be rightly described as the United States’ first Latin America-focused administration in at least a century—and perhaps ever.
Eric Farnsworth on Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Resignation Americas Society/Council of the Americas
On January 6, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced he would be resigning from his role after nearly a decade in leadership. The decision was announced ahead of planned October elections for this year and days before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who has threatened to annex Canada and place 25 percent tariffs on its exports, takes office. Trudeau’s resignation triggered the shutdown of Canada’s Parliament until March 24. “Canadian politics will be fairly chaotic over this year, 2025,” explained Eric Farnsworth, vice president of AS/COA and head of the Washington office. “You could have as many as three prime ministers in the country in a period of nine or 10 months. You have a scenario where Canada itself lacks the firepower to really push back against the United States.” Farnsworth discusses what to expect from Trudeau’s resignation, the state of the opposition, and Canada’s place in the Western Hemisphere.
How COVID Changed Latin America Oliver Kaplan, Michale Albertus, Diana Senior-Angula, and Gustavo Flores-Macías/Journal of Democracy
Abstract: Covid-19 was a pressure test for democracy in Latin America. The pandemic hit the region harder than any other in the world, particularly in terms of covid death rates and rising poverty. The pandemic also created opportunities to consolidate and abuse power, resulting in selective human rights repression, power grabs, militarization, and corruption. However, the effects were not uniformly negative. The pandemic also prompted renewed economic crisis management, social mobilization, and local checks to central power. Drawing on the experiences of countries such as Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Mexico, and Peru, this essay illustrates that although the pandemic strained democratic politics, good pandemic management may have stemmed democratic decay. New forms of mobilization and policy implementation emerged, as well as new openings for political challengers that will shape the coming decade of governance in the region.
Russia’s War on Ukraine
Farming Frontlines: How Food and Agriculture Will Impact Negotiations in Ukraine Center for Strategic and International Studies Futures Lab Audio Brief
Russia’s recent attacks on Greater Odesa port infrastructure and foreign-flagged grain-carrying vessels in the Black Sea marked the most intense attacks on Ukraine’s agricultural infrastructure in over a year. Four of the ships hit in October were carrying agricultural commodities, including vegetable oil for the UN World Food Programme in Gaza, as well as corn and grain shipments for Egypt, Italy, and Southern Africa, according to statements by the Ukrainian and UK governments. As widely reported by CSIS and others, Ukraine’s agriculture sector has been a major front in Russia’s war in Ukraine since February 2022. With the September and October 2024 attacks, Russia continues its system-wide attacks on Ukraine’s agriculture infrastructure, negatively affecting Ukraine’s agricultural production and exports and thereby undercutting a major source of Ukraine’s export revenue.
How Suicide Drones Transformed the Front Lines in Ukraine New York Times Magazine
Outnumbered and desperate, the nation began hacking cheap consumer drones with explosives — bringing a brutal new form of violence to 21st-century warfare.
China
Charting China’s Export Controls: Predicting Impacts on Critical U.S. Supply Chains The National Bureau of Asian Research
The PRC’s export control regime has grown and formalized in recent years in response to an increasingly active and complex landscape of U.S. and allied export controls. The PRC’s system of export controls has historically been piecemeal, and its administration poorly understood. Recent formalization of the system beginning in 2020 and escalating in 2023 is consistent with the PRC’s increased exercise of lawfare and demonstrates greater regulatory capabilities. PRC authorities are able to weaponize supply chains by targeting specific critical minerals under new export controls.
What Gold’s Crazy Run Says About China Bloomberg YouTube Channel
Gold prices have been on a rampage, hitting record after record. While driven in part by geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty and the prospect of lower US interest rates, unrelenting demand from China has also played a big part.
Measuring China’s Manufacturing Might Center for Strategic and International Studies
China’s manufacturing sector has been pivotal to the country’s rapid economic rise. Yet China’s industrial might has become a source of friction as the United States, Europe, and other economies seek to defend and nurture their own manufacturing sectors. In the face of mounting geopolitical tensions, Chinese leader Xi Jinping is doubling down with repeated calls for China to become a “manufacturing power” (制造强国) and lead the world in producing high-value, high-technology goods. This ChinaPower tracker examines these dynamics through 10 charts, visualizing the rise of China’s manufacturing sector and Beijing’s efforts to cement its industrial superpower status for future decades.
China – North Korea Evolving Relations: A Conversation with Dr. Feng Zhang China Power Podcast
In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Feng Zhang joins us to discuss China-North Korea relations in light of the growing Russia-North Korea relationship and the deployment of North Korean troops to support Russia. Dr. Zhang discusses how the China-North Korea relationship has suffered in recent years, in part due to China joining UN sanctions against North Korea in 2016, the COVID-19 pandemic, and North Korea’s involvement in Russia’s war against Ukraine. Dr. Zhang explains that China has a waning influence over North Korea, evidenced most strongly through the recent further alignment between Pyongyang and Moscow.
Geoeconomics and Demographics
The Evolution of Remote Work Across Industries: From Potential to Practice Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
As the St. Louis Fed has reported before, work from home (WFH) rose rapidly in the U.S. following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Although WFH rates are down from their pandemic peak, they have stabilized well above prepandemic levels. For example, the share of those working from home all workdays rose from 7% just before the pandemic to 32% in May 2020 and has remained at about 12% since 2022. This raises the questions: Why are some workers continuing to work from home when they did not before the pandemic? And why have others resumed commuting even though they worked from home during the pandemic? In this blog post, we focus on one key factor in understanding WFH variation across workers: the industry in which they are employed. Industries matter because job tasks vary widely across them, and some tasks are much easier to perform remotely than others. This variation in WFH feasibility, or potential, plays a crucial role in determining how much industries were able to pivot to remote work both during and after the height of the pandemic.
World Depopulation: Prospects and Implications Nicholas Eberstadt/AEI Foreign & Defense Working Paper
Abstract: Though few yet see it coming, a momentous turning point for humanity is looming immediately ahead. We are about to enter a new age of human history. Call it the epoch of the “population implosion”. Because it is arriving quietly, without fanfare—almost on tiptoes—it is catching us by surprise. The world population explosion is almost over. With birth rates plummeting and sub-replacement fertility taking hold around the world, we are heading into an era of pervasive and indefinite de-population: starting already—and not just with countries, but entire geographic regions—eventually encompassing the planet as a whole. There is no avoiding the great depopulations that lie ahead—they are already “baked into the cake”, fused into the foundations of societies all around the world by birth choices today’s parents have already made. The only question is how soon and how fast these coming depopulations transform life as we know it.
Are Big Cities Important for Economic Growth? Mathew Turner & David N. Weil/NBER
Abstract: Cities are often described as engines of economic growth. We assess this statement quantitatively. We focus on two mechanisms: a static agglomeration effect that makes production in bigger cities more efficient, and a dynamic effect whereby urban scale impacts the productivity of invention, which in turn determines the speed of technological progress for the country as a whole. Using estimates of these effects from the literature and MSA-level patent and population data since 1900, we ask how much lower US output would be in 2010 if city size had been limited to one million or one hundred thousand starting in 1900. These effects are small. If city sizes had been limited to one million people since 1900, output in 2010 would have been only 8% lower than its observed value.
Africa
The Case for an African Payments Union: Lessons from the European Experience Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
The realities of the global financial system make it nigh impossible for African governments to deliver employment and growth amid social and political instability and when financing is needed to transition away from fossil fuels.
Trump Cabinet Confirmation Hearings Schedule
Following up on our note yesterday of upcoming Senate confirmation hearings for Trump nominees, here is the schedule as it currently stands. Note these hearings are subject to change and several are to be confirmed. We will be updating this schedule if there are any changes. Please let us know if you have any questions.
Tuesday, January 14th
Senate Armed Services Committee: Pete Hegseth, Secretary of Defense
Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee: Doug Burgum, Secretary of the Interior
Senate Committee on Veterans Affairs: Doug Collins, Secretary of Veterans Affairs
Wednesday, January 15th
Senate Agriculture Committee: Brooke Rollins, Secretary of Agriculture
Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee: Chris Wright, Secretary of Energy
Senate Judiciary Committee: Pam Bondi, Attorney General
Senate Environment and Public Works Committee: Lee Zeldin, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (this could be moved to Thursday, 1/16)
Senate Foreign Relations Committee: Marco Rubio, Secretary of State
Senate Intelligence Committee: John Ratcliffe, Director of the Central Intelligence Agency
Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Government Affairs (Morning): Kristi Noem, Homeland Security Secretary
Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Government Affairs (Afternoon): Russell Vought, Office of Management and Budget Director
Thursday, January 16th
Senate Finance Committee: Scott Bessent, Secretary of the Treasury
Senate Foreign Relations Committee: Elise Stefanik, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations
Monday, January 27th
DATE TO BE CONFIRMED: Senate Finance Committee: Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services
Here Come the Confirmation Hearings
Next Week Most of President-elect Trump's Cabinet Picks Get Their Senate Confirmation Hearings – But Will They Tell Markets Anything on Policy?
The Presidential Inauguration is 13 days away, but the new Congress is up and running. The first order of business for the new Senate Republican majority - aside from its ongoing wrestling match with President-elect Trump on how to proceed on renewing the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (Trump's 2017 Trump tax bill), moving border security legislation and the 2025 budget (one Reconciliation bill or two?) – is successfully conducting the confirmation hearings of Trump's cabinet selections. The schedule from the respective Senate committees for those hearings is now out (see the hearing schedule below).
At this point, we believe most - if not all - of the President-elect's nominees will ultimately be confirmed (although we are expecting serious opposition to several of the nominees, including Defense Secretary-nominee Pete Hegseth and Director of National Intelligence nominee Tulsi Gabbard.) But this set of confirmation hearings is likely to be uniquely important to markets as they will shed significant light on, we believe, two major factors for the next two years:
How coordinated are Trump's nominees with the President-elect on policy issues? Are they helping to set the policy agenda for their respective agencies with Trump and the incoming White House team, or are they simply executing policies the President himself alone truly sets? And – putting aside President-elect Trump's massive and wide-reaching commentary on policy issues either verbally or by tweet, which policy issues will actually be the primary focus of the respective departments and agencies, and which look to be secondary or tertiary? And how will the nominees actually carry them out?
Now that Republicans control the Senate, just how compliant and deferential will Senate Republicans be to President Trump on his major policy proposals? Our view is, based on our conversations and observations, that while Republicans will do their utmost to show a strongly unified front in showing their support for President Trump and his policy agenda, careful listening to the hearings may show pressure points – even tiny cracks. What we see and hear from Republican Senators and staff behind closed doors about many of Trump's policies publicly is not the same as what they say publicly. Three examples:
Tariffs: What will Treasury Secretary-nominee Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary-nominee Howard Lutnick, and State Department-nominee Marco Rubio say in response to a likely barrage of questions about Trump’s much-discussed tariff regime? How will they explain – in more detail than Trump has done – how it will work, when will it be implemented, and their views on retaliatory tariffs on US goods and services?
Mass-Deportation: Despite all the talk of mass deportations, we are starting to hear businesses weighing in (carefully, quietly) that mass deportations would, in fact, hurt the economy. Many small businesses simply need the workforce illegal immigrants have provided them, and mass deportations will damage their businesses and, ultimately, economic growth. Will we get a sense of Republican Senators trying to navigate this issue in the confirmation hearings of Homeland Security Secretary-nominee Kristi Noel, Attorney General-nominee Pam Bondi, and Office of Management and Budget-nominee Russell Voight (who will likely be asked how it will be paid for)?
Greenland/Canada/Panama Canal: What does Secretary of State-nominee Marco Rubio say to questions around Trump's statements of wanting to buy Greenland, making Canada the 51st state, and possibly using the military to take back the Panama Canal? What does Defense Secretary-nominee Pete Hegseth say in response to questions about the use of the military in Panama (as President-elect Trump has suggested), and doesn’t Congress have to authorize the use of troops?
Once we get through these hearings, the next step will be each of the nominees being approved by the respective committees and then having their nominations reported to the full Senate for approval. How that goes depends largely on the confirmation hearings. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) can only lose three Republicans on a nomination or risk defeat for a nominee.
We would also note that Thune is gaming out which cabinet nominees he can actually get confirmed on Inaugural Day (January 20) and sworn immediately into office. Top of that list is Marco Rubio and Scott Bessent.
Normally, confirmation hearings are tightly scripted, and nominees are well-prepared to avoid getting into policy debates. These will not be "normal" hearings, and this is not going to be a normal presidential administration. Our view is markets should plan to pay closer attention to the confirmation hearings that most impact the sectors they are focused on.
Tuesday, January 14th
Senate Armed Services Committee: Pete Hegseth, Secretary of Defense
Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee: Doug Burgum, Secretary of the Interior
Senate Committee on Veterans Affairs: Doug Collins, Secretary of Veterans Affairs
Wednesday, January 15th
Senate Agriculture Committee: Brooke Rollins, Secretary of Agriculture
Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee: Chris Wright, Secretary of Energy
Senate Judiciary Committee: Pam Bondi, Attorney General
Senate Environment and Public Works Committee: Lee Zeldin, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (Possibly Thursday, 1/16)
Senate Foreign Relations Committee: Marco Rubio, Secretary of State
Senate Intelligence Committee: John Ratcliffe, Director of the Central Intelligence Agency
Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Government Affairs (Morning): Kristi Noem, Homeland Security Secretary
Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Government Affairs (Afternoon): Russell Vought, Office of Management and Budget Director
Thursday, January 16th
Senate Finance Committee: Scott Bessent, Secretary of the Treasury
Senate Foreign Relations Committee: Elise Stefanik, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations
Monday, January 27th
Senate Finance Committee: Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (Not Confirmed)
The Global Week Ahead
The US Congress Certifies the 2024 Election, Venezuela’s Opposition Leader Meets with Hemispheric Leaders, and Canadian PM Trudeau Resigns
January 5 - 12, 2025
We regret the late arrival of this week's Reg Week Ahead. Technical issues prevented us from publishing on our normal schedule. We have updated it to incorporate Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation announcement today.
We hope you all had a wonderful New Year holiday. The world returns to work this week following the holidays, and a lot is happening. First, the US Congress convened in a joint session on Monday to certify the election of President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect J.D. Vance. The event was relatively quick – about an hour and a half – and much different than four years ago when riots broke out around and inside the Capitol.
The new Congress was sworn into office last Friday and is busy getting to work. We would note that Congress's schedule will be quite different this year as the US Senate has adopted a calendar for working five days a week and going for ten straight weeks without a break. That is quite a change of pace for the Senate, which has worked three days a week for as long as we can remember, allowing members to return home Friday through Monday to meet with constituents. The market should expect a lot of action in Congress this year at an unrelenting pace.
Also this week, Venezuela’s exiled opposition leader, Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, will continue a series of meetings throughout the Hemisphere with leaders to bolster support for his victory last July in the presidential elections. Gonzalez will meet President Biden in Washington and then go to Panama, the Dominican Republic. He recently met with Argentine President Javier Milei. Meanwhile, Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro, who by most independent accounts clearly stole the election in July, will be sworn in for a third term in office this coming Friday.
Finally, we would note that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned from office early Monday morning. Having served for nine years as Prime Minister, he faced low approval numbers and internal party dissent that led to the resignation of his Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister, Chrystia Freeland. Freeland is now considered a leading contender to be elected the new leader of the Liberal Party before elections in late October.
Looking at the global radar screen, this week's economic reporting schedule is relatively light. In the US, markets will be looking at the US jobs report that will be coming out on Friday. Also out in the US, this week will be the ISM services index on Tuesday and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report on Friday. And last but certainly not least, the Fed releases meeting minutes.
In Asia, China will release inflation data, official PMI prints, and the Caixin services PMI. In Japan, wage data is out this week, and Bank of Japan regional branch managers are meeting to discuss wage growth.
Moving to Europe, CPI reports will be released for the Eurozone, France, Germany, and Italy. The European Central Bank’s consumer expectations survey will also be released on Tuesday.
Below is our weekly report of everything we are watching worldwide this coming week. Please let us know if you have any questions.
Sunday, January 5, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Kazakhstan Freedom Holding Corp. Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (December)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (December)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Monday, January 6, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The US Congress holds a joint session to certify the 2024 Presidential elections.
· Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is expected to resign.
· President Joe Biden is expected to host a meeting with Venezuelan opposition leader Emundo Gonzalez Urratia at the White House.
· US Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul in Seoul, South Korea. Blinken will also travel to Tokyo, Paris, and Rome.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech entitled “Economic Outlook and Financial Stability” at the Seventh Conference on Law and Macroeconomics being held in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
· Mexico Consumer Confidence (December)
· Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (December)/ Balance of Trade (December)/ BCB Focus Market Readout
· USA S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (December)/ Factory Orders (November)/ Total Vehicle Sales (December)
· Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (December)
· Ecuador Inflation Rate (December)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· India HSBC Composite & Services PMI Final (December)
· Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (December)
· Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Netherlands Business Confidence (December)/ Retail Sales (November)
· Switzerland Retail Sales (November)
· Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)
· Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)
· France HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)
· Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)/ Hesse CPI (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)
· Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)
· Great Britain New Car Sales (December)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (December)
· Slovenia Balance of Trade (November)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Tourist Arrivals (December)/ Business Confidence (December)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Egypt S&P Global PMI (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ M2 Money Supply (November)
· Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (December)
· South Africa S&P Global PMI (December)
· Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (December)
· Ghana S&P Global PMI (December)
Tuesday, January 7, 2025
Global
· Eastern Orthodox Christians celebrate Christmas today.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Japan.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks before the Greater Raleigh Chamber Economic Forecast: Launch 2025.
· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (December)/ PPI (November)
· Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)
· Canada Fed Barkin Speech/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Ivey PMI s.a (December)
· USA Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Redbook (January/04)/ ISM Services PMI/ Business Activity/ Employment/ New Orders/ Prices (December)/ JOLTs Job Openings (November)/ JOLTs Job Quits (November)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/03)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (December)
· Colombia PPI (December)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Taiwan’s military holds combat readiness training sessions.
· Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will host Singapore Prime Minister Lawerence Wong for bilateral talks.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Australia Building Permits (November)/ Private House Approvals (November)
· Philippines Inflation Rate (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)
· Taiwan Inflation Rate (December)
· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)
· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)
· India Fiscal Year GDP Growth Prel 2025-24
· China Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)
· Pakistan Consumer Confidence (December)
· New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (January/07)
· Indonesia Motorbike Sales (December)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (December)/ Halifax House Price Index (December)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (December)
· Netherlands Inflation Rate (December)
· Hungary PPI (November)
· Switzerland Inflation Rate (December)
· France Inflation Rate (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ HCOB Construction PMI (December)
· Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ CPI Flash (December)
· Germany HCOB Construction PMI (December)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (December)/ Bavaria CPI (December)
· Italy HCOB Construction PMI (December)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ Inflation Rate (December)
· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)
· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)
· Spain Business Confidence (December)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· For the first time in 13 years, Qatar Airways will resume flights to Damascus and Aleppo, Syria.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (December)
· Qatar Financial Centre PMI (December)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)
· Israel M1 Money Supply (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visits Congo.
· Ghana’s President-elect John Mahama is sworn into office.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Egypt Current Account Q3
Wednesday, January 8, 2025
Global
· The UN Security Council meets on the situation in Syria.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Paris.
· Venezuelan opposition leader Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia visits the Dominican Republic.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Lectures of the Governors Event in Paris, France.
· Chile Inflation Rate (December)
· Brazil Industrial Production (November)
· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/03)/ MBA Purchase Index (January/03)/ ADP Employment Change (December)/ Fed Waller Speech/ Initial Jobless Claims (January/04)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (January/03)/ FOMC Minutes/ Consumer Credit Change (November)/ Used Car Prices (December)
· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (December)
· Argentina Industrial Production (November)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea Current Account (November)
· Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (November)
· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)
· Japan Consumer Confidence (December)
· Kazakhstan Freedom Holding Corp. Services PMI (December)
· India M3 Money Supply (December/27)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· German Conservative top candidate for chancellor Friedrich Merz holds a speech on the final day of the CSU annual meeting in Seeon, Germany.
· Electronic Travel Authorization (ETA) scheme starts in UK for non-Europeans.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Netherlands Household Consumption (November)
· Germany Factory Orders (November)/ Retail Sales (November)
· Romania Unemployment Rate (November)
· France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Consumer Confidence (December)/ Current Account (November)
· Euro Area Consumer Confidence Final (December)/ Economic Sentiment (December)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (December)/ Industrial Sentiment (December)/ PPI (November)/ Selling Price Expectations (December)/ Services Sentiment (December)
· Great Britain BBA Mortgage Rate (December)
· Ireland Unemployment Rate (December)
· Serbia PPI (December)
· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (December)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Lebanon’s Parliament will hold a session to try and elect a new president.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ ABSA Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Tanzania Interest Rate Decision/ Inflation Rate (December)
· Angola Wholesale Prices (November)
Thursday, January 9, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Today the US federal government is closed in memoriam for former President Jimmy Carter. A funeral service will be held today at the National Cathedral in Washington, D.C.
· Following former President Jimmy Carter’s funeral service, President Joe Biden will fly to Rome for meetings with Pope Francis as well as with Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
· Venezuelan opposition leader Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia visits Panama.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman will give a speech entitled “Reflections on 2024: Monetary Policy, Economic Performance, and Lessons for Banking Regulation” at te California Bankers Association 2025 Bank Presidents Seminar.
· Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker speaks on "Right Now, It's Putting One Foot in Front of the Other" before the National Association of Corporate Directors New Jersey Chapter Economic Forecast 2025.
· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks before the Virginia Bankers Association/Virginia Chamber of Commerce Financial Forecast.
· Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid speaks on the economic and monetary policy outlook before the Economic Club of Kansas City.
· Brazil Retail Sales (November)
· Mexico Inflation Rate (December)/ Auto Exports & Production (December)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
· USA Challenger Job Cuts (December)/Wholesale Inventories (November)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/09/ Fed Balance Sheet (January/08)
· Colombia Inflation Rate (December)
· Peru Interest Rate Decision
· El Salvador Inflation Rate (December)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Japan Average Cash Earnings (November)/ Overtime Pay (November)/ Foreign Bond Investment (December/28)/ Foreign Bond Investment (January/04)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (December/28)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (January/04)
· Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Retail Sales (November)
· Philippines Unemployment Rate (November)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)
· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (December)
· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (December)/ Car Sales (December)
· Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Elon Musk will hold a conversation with Germany’s far-right AfD's leader Alice Weidel on X.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden gives a speech at the University of Edinburgh.
· Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Brandenburg CPI (December)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (December)/ Saxony CPI (December)
· Romania Balance of Trade (November)/ PPI (November)
· Hungary Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)
· Slovakia Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)
· Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)
· Euro Area Retail Sales (November)
· Greece Balance of Trade (November)
· Ireland Industrial Production (November)
· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/03)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani visits Iran for bilateral talks.
· Foreign Ministers from US, France, Britain, Germany and Italy meet on Syria in Rome.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visits Chad.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Manufacturing Production (November)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (December)
Friday, January 10, 2025
Global
· The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) update on global temperatures.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro will be sworn into office for a third term. Maduro is widely seen as having stolen the election and has imprisoned thousands of opposition figures since the election in July.
· President-elect Donald Trump is scheduled to be sentenced over cover-up of hush-money paid to adult film actress Stormy Daniels.
· The US Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in the challenge to the federal ban on TikTok.
· First launch of Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket.
· The Detroit Auto Show begins and runs through January 20.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Brazil Inflation Rate (December)/ Car Production (December)/ New Car Registrations (December)
· Mexico Industrial Production (November)
· Canada Unemployment Rate (December)/ Employment Change (December)/ Participation Rate (December)/ Building Permits (November)
· USA Non-Farm/ Government/ Manufacturing Payrolls (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Participation Rate (December)/ Average Hourly Earnings/ U-6 Unemployment Rate/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (January) / Michigan Current Conditions (January) / Michigan Consumer & Inflation Expectations (January) / WASDE Report/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (January/10)
· Uruguay Industrial Production (November)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Japan Household Spending (November)/ Coincident Index (November)/ Leading Economic Index (November)
· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (October)
· Indonesia Retail Sales (November)
· Malaysia Unemployment Rate (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)
· Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ Consumer Confidence (December)
· India Industrial Production (November)/ Manufacturing Production (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/03)
· Kazakhstan PPI (December)
· China New Yuan Loans (December)/ M2 Money Supply (December)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (December)/ Total Social Financing (December)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· First flight by Pakistan national carrier departs for EU after four-year ban.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Netherlands Manufacturing Production (November)
· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (December)
· Romania GDP Growth Rate Final Q3/ Retail Sales (November)
· Turkey Industrial Production (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ Participation Rate (November)
· France Industrial Production (November)/ Household Consumption (November)
· Spain Industrial Production (November)
· Italy Retail Sales (November)
· Slovenia Industrial Production (November)
· Greece Industrial Production (November)
· Serbia Interest Rate Decision
· Belarus Inflation Rate (December)
· Germany Current Account (November)
· Ireland Retail Sales (November)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (November)
· Israel Manufacturing PMI (November)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· The Ethiopia Stock Exchange launches operations.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Egypt Inflation Rate (December)
· Ghana Inflation Rate (December)
· Mozambique Inflation Rate (December)
Saturday, January 11, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Kosrae Constitution Day, commemorating when the island nation instituted its constitution.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The German Social Democratic Party (SPD) congress to officially sign off on their candidate for chancellor ahead of the election.
· The German Far-right AfD party holds their party congress on their election program.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Sunday, January 12, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Peru Balance of Trade (November)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China Inflation Rate (December)/ PPI (December)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Croatia holds its presidential runoff election. Incumbent President Zoran Milanović is due to face rival Dragan Primorac.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Consumer Confidence (December)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Comoros holds legislative elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Angola Inflation Rate (December)/ Wholesale Prices (December)
U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead
Congress Certifies Election Results, Fed Vice Chair Barr Steps Down, The Federal Government Is Closed Thursday for the National Day of Mourning for former President Carter
January 6 - 10, 2025
We regret the late arrival of this week's Reg Week Ahead. Technical issues prevented us from publishing on our normal schedule. We have updated it to incorporate Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr's resignation announcement today.
Washington (kind of) roars back to life this week with the new Congress sworn in and President-elect Trump continuing his record pace of nominations. We said "kind of" because Washington got hit Monday with the biggest snowstorm we have seen in years, closing all schools and the federal government. Nonetheless, Congress is gathering to certify the presidential election results.
Also, the week will be truncated with the funeral of former President Jimmy Carter. He will lie in state in the Capitol Rotunda until his funeral at 10:00 a.m. at the Washington National Cathedral. All living presidents have been invited, and President Biden will give a eulogy.
Looking at the regulatory week ahead, the big news of the day is Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michael Barr's announcement this morning that he will step down from the Vice Chair role but stay on (for now) as a Fed Governor. Speculation has already begun regarding who will replace Barr, primarily focused on current Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman and former FDIC Chair Jelena McWilliams.
Also, this week, we have officially entered the retrospective phase of the Biden Administration's regulatory world, and the Brookings Institution seems to be the place to go to do that – particularly this Wednesday. At 11 a.m. CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam will deliver remarks and participate in a fireside chat, "Commodity derivatives regulation: Where do we go from here?". Then, at 2:00 p.m., FTC Chair Lina Kahn sits for a fireside chat on the future of the FTC (and perhaps her plans – is she staying or going?).
We also expect President-elect Trump to make several regulatory nominations this week. So far, he has only nominated Paul Atkins for SEC Chair. We are also expecting him to fill out the nominations for the top jobs at Treasury under Treasury Secretary-nominee Scott Bessent.
Below is a listing of other events we are monitoring this week. Please let us know if you have any questions.
U.S. Congressional Hearings
U.S. Senate
There are no hearings of significance scheduled this week.
House of Representatives
There are no hearings of significance scheduled this week.
Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events
Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks
· Saturday, January 4, 5:30 p.m. – Federal Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech on monetary policy at the 2025 Allied Social Science Associations Annual Meeting, San Francisco, California.
· Sunday, January 5, 1:15 p.m. – San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly will give a speech and participate on a panel discussing the Ben Bernanke’s contributions to economics at the 2025 Allied Social Science Associations Annual Meeting in San Francisco, California.
· Monday, January 6, 9:15 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech entitled “Economic Outlook and Financial Stability” at the Seventh Conference on Law and Macroeconomics being held in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
· Thursday, January 9 – The Federal Government (and Federal Reserve) will be closed due to the national day of mourning for the death of former President Jimmy Carter.
· Thursday, January 9 – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman will give a speech entitled “Reflections on 2024: Monetary Policy, Economic Performance, and Lessons for Banking Regulation” at te California Bankers Association 2025 Bank Presidents Seminar.
U.S. Treasury Department
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Department of Commerce
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Department of Housing and Urban Development
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Securities and Exchange Commission
· Wednesday, January 8, 3:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.
· Friday, January 10, 10:00 a.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.
Commodities Futures Trading Commission
· Wednesday, January 8, 11:00 a.m. – CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam will deliver remarks and participate in a fireside chat, “Commodity derivatives regulation: Where do we go from here?” at the Brookings Institution.
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
FINRA
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
National Credit Union Administration
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division
· Wednesday, January 8, 2:00 p.m. – FTC Chair Lina Kahn will participate in a fireside chat at the Brookings Institution.
Farm Credit Administration Wagner Labor Initiative in New York.
· Wednesday, January 8, 10:00 a.m. – The Farm Credit Administration will hold a board meeting. The agenda includes an update on Farm Credit System Funding Conditions.
Farm Credit Insurance Corporation
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Small Business Administration
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
International Monetary Fund & World Bank
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
North American Securities Administrators Association
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Trade Associations & Think Tank Events
Trade Associations
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Think Tanks and Other Events
· Thursday, January 9, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics will hold an event entitled “Should we care about who owns audit firms?”
· Thursday, January 9, 12:00 p.m. – The Economic Club of Washington, D.C. holds a discussion with Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan.
Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.
Recommended Weekend Reads
How Much Will GLP-1s Disrupt the Economy?; The Impact of Trump’s Trade Policy on Exchange Rates; and China, India, and the US in 2025
January 3 - 5, 2025
Please find our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend. And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.
The Economics of GLP-1s and Aging
Ozempic economics: how GLP-1s will disrupt the economy in 2025 Catherine Rampell/Washington Post
A new technology is disrupting the economy. Even experts don’t entirely understand how it works, its full range of uses and what its unintended consequences could be. No, it’s not artificial intelligence; I’m talking about weight-loss drugs. With adult obesity rates falling last year for the first time in more than a decade, drugs such as Ozempic and Zepbound are already reshaping Americans’ waistlines. Now, they’re poised to reshape the entire economy, too. As of May, roughly 1 in 8 American adults had tried GLP-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1s for short). This percentage has almost certainly grown since then, as telehealth companies, “medi-spas” and compounding pharmacies have aggressively marketed GLP-1 prescriptions. We’re only just beginning to learn the full universe of effects for this class of drugs. Originally developed to treat Type 2 diabetes, GLP-1s were soon discovered to be effective in treating obesity and managing weight loss. Now there’s an ever-growing list of other potential uses (on- and off-label), including for treating heart disease, sleep apnea, Alzheimer’s, substance abuse and maybe even gambling addiction.
Will weight-loss drugs lead to upheaval in the sugar market? While many traders have brushed off concerns, the potential impact is clear Financial Times
The health risks of too much sugar have been made clear, but the billion-dollar global market to supply it is thriving. Sales of sweet treats remain strong, and waistlines keep expanding. Could weight-loss drugs now succeed where governments, scientists and doctors have failed: crushing demand for sugar? So-called glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1s) contained in such drugs as Wegovy, Mounjaro and Ozempic curb users’ appetites and are being hailed as game changers for tackling obesity and potentially a range of other conditions, from diabetes to addiction. They could also lead to an upheaval in sugar markets.
The No-Hunger Games: How GLP-1 Medication Adoption is Changing Consumer Food Purchases Sylvia Hrstakeva/Jura Liakonyte, & Leo Feler, Cornell College of Business Research Paper
Abstract: We examine how consumers modify their food purchasing behavior after adopting appetite-suppressing GLP-1 receptor agonists, such as Ozempic and Wegovy. Utilizing a unique dataset linking survey responses on medication adoption and timing with transaction data from a representative U.S. household panel, we document the prevalence, motivations, and demographic patterns of GLP-1 adoption, including off-label use. Households with at least one GLP-1 user reduce grocery spending by approximately 6% within six months of adoption, with higher-income households reducing spending by nearly 9%. These reductions are driven by significantly larger decreases in purchases of calorie-dense, processed items, including a 11% decline in savory snacks. In contrast, we observe directional increases in nutrient-dense purchases, such as yogurt and fresh produce. We also examine food-away-from-home spending at limited-service establishments, such as fast-food chains and coffee shops, finding reductions at breakfast and especially during dinner times. Our findings highlight the potential for GLP-1 medications to significantly reshape consumer food demand, a trend with increasingly important implications for the food industry as adoption continues to grow.
On the Limits of Chronological Age Rainer Kotschy/David E. Brown/Andrew Scott – National Bureau of Economic Research
Abstract: Analysis of population aging is typically framed in terms of chronological age. However, chronological age itself is not necessarily deeply informative about the aging process. This paper reviews literature and conducts empirical analyses aimed at investigating whether chronological age is a reliable proxy for physiological functioning when used in models of economic behavior and outcomes. We show that chronological age is an unreliable proxy for physiological functioning due to appreciable differences in how aging unfolds across people, health domains, and over time. We further demonstrate that chronological age either fails to predict economic variables when used in lieu of physiological functioning, or that it predicts additional effects on economic behavior and outcomes that are largely unrelated to physiological aging. Continued reliance on chronological age as a proxy for physiological functioning might impede the ability of societies to fully harness the benefits of increasing longevity.
Trump’s Trade Policy and Exchange Rates
Tariffs and Exchange Rates (and Stephen Miran) Stan Veuger/American Enterprise Institute
In a recent policy paper, Stephen Miran – who was recently nominated by President-elect Trump to serve as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors – discussed at some length the incidence of tariffs. Miran’s objective is to convince readers that tariffs are not as harmful as is often argued. He argues that to fully understand the impact of a tariff on domestic consumers, we cannot limit ourselves to an analysis of what happens to domestic prices. We also need to consider what happens to the exchange rate. Veuger argues that this needs to be considered in more concrete terms, using as a scenario the US imposing a 50% tariff on washing machines from Europe. It has become common for commentators to suggest, Veuger argues, that this will mean US importers will pay 50% more for washing machines, and this price increase is passed on to US consumers. How does the analysis change if the euro depreciates by 5% as a result of the tariff, because demand for imports from Europe has gone down? Assuming euro-denominated prices do not change, US importers will now pay 45% more for washing machines, not 50%. But the currency depreciation affects all imports, so US importers will now pay 5% less for bananas. Veuger says this has (at least) five implications which he goes through in his commentary.
Currency Wars and Trade Kris James Mitchener & Kirste Wandschneider/National Bureau of Economic Research
The Great Depression is the canonical case of a widespread currency war, with more than 70 countries devaluing their currencies relative to gold between 1929 and 1936. What were the currency war’s effects on trade flows? We use newly-compiled, high-frequency bilateral trade data and gravity models that account for when and whether trade partners had devalued to identify the effects of the currency war on global trade. Our empirical estimates show that a country’s trade was reduced by more than 21% following devaluation. This negative and statistically significant decline in trade suggests that the currency war destroyed the trade-enhancing benefits of the global monetary standard, ending regime coordination and increasing trade costs.
China, India, and the U.S in 2025
After the Fall: China’s Economy in 2025 The Rhodium Group
China’s 2024 claim that GDP growth was on track to meet high targets was impossible to reconcile with increasingly frantic efforts to prop up a flagging economy all year long. Collapsing property construction slowed growth to a crawl in 2022 and 2023, and in 2024 the spillover from real estate sidelined local government investment and consumption as well. By our estimates, China’s GDP growth in 2024 improved modestly to around 2.4% to 2.8%, well below than official claims of nearly 5%. If it stimulates domestic demand with some urgency and ramps up debt, we think China could get to 3-4.5% growth in 2025, reaching the high end of that range only if everything falls in Beijing’s favor. But that is the very top of—or above—the potential growth ceiling until Beijing fixes long-festering structural problems.
The US And China In Indian Grand Strategy Tanvi Madan/ India’s World Indian policymakers have recognized that China and the U.S. are among the most—if not the most—consequential countries for India’s interests. They have thought about how China (the near behemoth) and the U.S. (the far behemoth) could and would affect, in both, positive or negative ways, India’s quest for security, prosperity, status and autonomy. The roles Indian leaders have envisioned for Beijing and for Washington in their strategy have neither been static nor de-linked from each other. The roles China and the U.S. have ended up playing have depended on several factors, including the dynamics between them that affected their view of India. That, in turn, has shaped New Delhi’s options as it sought to achieve its objectives.
The Challenges Behind China’s Global South Policies Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
At the G20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, China unveiled eight initiatives to support the Global South, including advancing technology connectivity and cooperating on poverty reduction, food security, and climate change. China’s initiatives came as no surprise. As its tensions with the Global North intensify—particularly in areas of economic competition, technological rivalry, and security issues such as the Russia-Ukraine war—the Global South, with approximately 85 percent of the world’s population, assumes great significance in China’s foreign policy. Facing a weak domestic market, increasing trade restrictions from the West, and growing tensions with the United States, China seeks to mobilize support from the Global South to counterbalance the West in economic, security, and ideological challenges. However, China’s Global South policy is increasingly confronted by its limits in trade and investment and its self-deceiving security-nexus approach.
Americans foresee a somewhat challenging year ahead for the country, based on their predictions for various aspects of U.S. affairs and daily life. Majorities of U.S. adults think 2025 will be a year of political conflict, economic difficulty, international discord, increasing power for China and Russia, and a rising federal budget deficit. However, there is at least some optimism for 2025, as 66% of U.S. adults expect gains in the stock market, 54% think there will be increasing or full employment, and 52% predict reasonable price growth. Meanwhile, Americans are essentially tied in their projections for what 2025 will hold when it comes to the United States’ power in the world, the number of labor strikes, taxes and crime rates.
The Global Week Ahead
The New U.S. Congress Gets Sworn in, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu Undergoes Cancer Surgery, Will A Russian Gas Deal Get Renewed? And A Quiet Week for Global Markets
December 29, 2024 - January 5, 2025
2024 comes to an end much like it started: Russia's bloody war on Ukraine continues apace, violent conflict continues in the Middle East, and US and EU economic decoupling with China continues. But much has changed, too. In the Middle East, Hamas and Hezbollah have effectively ceased to be effective terrorist organizations, Syria has thrown off 50 years of horrific dictatorship, and Iran – the sponsor of most of the worst violent activities in the region – suddenly finds itself politically and militarily vulnerable while struggling with an increasingly brittle economy.
Meanwhile, the EU, Germany, France, and other member states are undergoing significant political shifts as voter sentiment moves more and more governments rightward, challenging existing norms on economic policy, immigration, and common security. China continues to struggle through deeply rooted internal economic stagnation just as a long-anticipated demographic spiral begins to impact it.
But keeping our focus on what is happening in the coming week, the world remains relatively quiet as we prepare for the New Year's Day holiday. The most significant events we are watching this week begin in Europe, as Poland takes over the Presidency of the Council of European Union from Hungary. Poland will hold the presidency for six crucial months as the EU debates how best to continue supporting Ukraine, deal with the situation in the Middle East, and navigate the ongoing internal EU debate on how to handle trade with China and the US and growing demands to increase the overall security of the EU. There will be national elections in Germany in February, while France will continue to struggle with a badly splintered parliament, which will considerably shift the political calculus in 2025.
In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is undergoing major surgery to remove his prostate after falling ill on Friday. His illness comes as Israel has begun to conduct airstrikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen, who have been targeting Israel with missile strikes in recent weeks, and as combat operations continue in Gaza and tensions remain high on the Lebanese border and Syrian border.
Also this week, a deal allowing Russian natural gas to transit through Ukraine to the EU ends on December 31. Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico – who met with Russian President Vladimir Putin last week in Moscow – is pressing Ukraine to renew the agreement and, until that is accomplished, allow the flow of gas to continue. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has accused Fico of striking “shadow agreements” with Russia and has vowed to end Russian gas flowing through Ukraine, as Zelensky says it only helps fund the Russian war machine. The loss of the Russian gas supply would have a significant negative economic impact on Slovakia and Hungary, but it is seen as “negligible” to European gas prices overall.
Turning to the US, the new 119th Congress is sworn into office on Friday. Republicans take control of the Senate while in the House, Republicans will hold one of the slimmest majorities in US history in the House. Markets are watching closely to see if the current Speaker of the House, Michael Johnson (R-LA), will be re-elected on Friday. At least one Republican has said he will not vote for Johnson, and if there are any more defections, Johnson will likely be removed from the Speakership.
Finally, we would note that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen formally notified Congress this past Thursday that the debt limit will be reached between January 14 and 23, requiring "extraordinary measures" to keep the government operational. Thus, the new Congress immediately is under pressure to pass both a final 2025 budget and a likely necessary debt ceiling increase.
Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, the holiday-shortened week means economic data are sparse. In the US, markets watch November home sale figures on Monday and ISM PMI figures on Friday. In Europe, Germany's unemployment figures will be out later this week, along with S&P PMIs for all the major European countries. In Asia, markets are anticipating China's PMI reports.
Below is our weekly report of everything we are watching worldwide this coming week. We want to wish you a joyful New Year!
Sunday, December 29, 2024
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Bolivia will announce the results of its judicial elections held on December 15. Bolivia and Mexico are the only countries in the world that elect their judiciary.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Mongolia Independence Day, celebrating when the country gained its freedom in 1911 from the Qing China dynasty.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Croatia holds the first round of its presidential elections.
· Georgia will hold its presidential inauguration. Tensions remain high in the country and mass protests are likely to be held in opposition to the swearing in of Mikheil Kavelashvili.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to undergo prostate removal surgery.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (November)/ Private Bank Lending (November)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Chad holds parliamentary elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Monday, December 30, 2024
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a meeting on threats to international peace and security.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (November)/ Nominal Budget Balance (November)/ BCB Focus Market Readout
· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (December)
· Chile Unemployment Rate (November)
· USA Chicago PMI (December)/ Pending Home Sales (November)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (December)
· Paraguay Inflation Rate (December)
· Uruguay Balance of Trade (November)/ Current Account Q3
· Panama Current Account Q3
· Mexico Fiscal Balance (November)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Rizal Day in the Philippines, a national holiday. The day commemorates the life and works of Jose Rizal, a national hero who was a doctor and novelist who condemned the Spanish rule of the Philippines.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)
· Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (December)
· Philippines PPI (November)
· Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)
· Thailand Retail Sales (October)
· Pakistan Consumer Confidence (December)
· Sri Lanka Current Account Q3
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Turkey Economic Confidence Index (December)
· Slovakia Business & Consumer Confidence (December)
· Spain Inflation Rate (December)/ Current Account (October)
· Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (December)
· Slovenia Inflation Rate (December)
· Greece PPI (November)
· Serbia Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)
· Russia M2 Money Supply (November)
· Ukraine Current Account (November)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· French Defence Minister Sebastien Lecornu and Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot are expected to visit Beirut, Lebanon to discuss current security issues.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Qatar Inflation Rate (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)
· Jordan GDP Growth Rate Q3
· Israel M1 Money Supply (November)/ Manufacturing PMI (November)
· Kuwait M2 Money Supply (November)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)
· Kenya GDP Growth Rate Q3
· South Africa Budget Balance (November)
· Angola Wholesale Prices (November)
· Egypt M2 Money Supply (November)
Tuesday, December 31, 2024
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Canada will release a final report on a year-long investigation into foreign interference in Canada’s federal electoral processes and democratic institutions
Economic Reports/Events –
· Chile Copper Production (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Manufacturing Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)
· USA Redbook (December/28)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (October)/ House Price Index (October)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (December)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (December/27)
· Costa Rica Unemployment Rate Q3
· Colombia Cement Production (November)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Today is International Solidarity Day of Azerbaijanis, a national holiday in Azerbaijan.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea Inflation Rate (December)
· China NBS General/ Manufacturing/ Non-Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Singapore Bank Lending (November)
· Malaysia M3 Money Supply (November)
· Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (December)/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Unemployment Rate Q3
· India Government Budget Value (November)/ Infrastructure Output (November)/ External Debt Q3
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· At midnight, a deal allowing the flow of natural gas from the eastern border of Russia through Ukraine to Slovakia and Hungary is set to expire unless a last-minute agreement can be reached.
· Ground staff at airports in Portugal are expected to go on strike.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (November)
· Greece Retail Sales (October)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia Unemployment Rate Q3
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· African Union peacekeeping mission ATMIS due to end mandate in Somalia.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa M3 Money Supply (November)/ Private Sector Credit (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)
Wednesday, January 1, 2025
Global
· Happy New Year! Welcome, 2025!
· Canada takes the chair of the G7 for 2025 from Italy which chaired the group in 2024.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Haitian Independence Day, celebrating the day in 1804 when slavery was abolished – making it the first country in the Western Hemisphere to abolish slavery.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)
· Australia CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (December)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Poland takes the rotating EU Presidency through July 1, 2025.
· Bulgaria and Romania officially join the EU Schengen Agreement.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Sudan Independence Day, commemorating the day was granted its independence in 1956 from Great Britain and Egypt.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Thursday, January 2, 2025
Global
· Algeria takes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of August. Also today, there will be a there will be a flag Installation ceremony for new members of the UN Security Council: Denmark, Greece, Pakistan, Panama and Somalia.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Prosecutors are expected to summon President Dina Boluarte to testify about her secret nose surgery. The issue is she apparently kept the surgery a secret and “abandoned” her duties in order to undergo the procedure. Boluarte has a 3 percent approval rating.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (November)
· USA MBA Mortgage Market/ Refinance/ Purchase Index (December/27)/ MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/27)/ Initial Jobless Claims (December/28)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (December/21)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)/ Construction Spending (November)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (December/27)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/02)/ Fed Balance Sheet (January/01)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (December)
· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Mexico S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Peru Inflation Rate (December)
· Argentina Tax Revenue (December)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· The Malaysian Court of Appeal holds a hearing on ex-Prime Minister Najib Razak's appeal for house arrest. Razak is already serving a six-year jail term for corruption related to plundering the country’s sovereign wealth fund 1MDB.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (December)/ Commodity Prices (December)
· Singapore GDP Growth Rate Adv Q4/ URA Property Index Q4/ SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)
· China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Indonesia Inflation Rate (December)/ Tourist Arrivals (November)
· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (December)
· Hong Kong Retail Sales (November)
· Pakistan Inflation Rate (December)/ Wholesale Prices (December)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Netherlands NEVI Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/27)
· Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (December)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (December)
· Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (December)/ New Car Sales (December)
· Switzerland procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (December)
· France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (December)/ Loans to Companies & Households (November)/ M3 Money Supply (November)
· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)/ Total Credit (November)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (December)
· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (December)
Friday, January 3, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The 119th United States Congress is sworn into office. The House of Representatives will decide on whether the current Speaker of the House, Michael Johnson (R-LA), will remain in the role or elect a new Speaker.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks before the Maryland Bankers Association First Friday Economic Outlook Forum.
· Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)/ Business Confidence (December)/ Unemployment Rate (November)
· Colombia Exports (November)
· USA ISM Manufacturing PMI/ Prices/ Employment/ New Orders (December)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (December/27)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (January/03)/ Total Vehicle Sales (December)
· Uruguay Inflation Rate (December)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea GDP Growth Rate Adv Q4
· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (December/28)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (December/28)
· Singapore Retail Sales (November)
· Thailand Business Confidence (December)
· India Bank Loan Growth (December/20)/ Deposit Growth (December/20)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/27)
· Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (December)
· Pakistan Balance of Trade (December)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates on a panel entitled "Geopolitical Fragmentation" hosted by the American Finance Association (AFA) at annual meeting of American Economic Association (AEA)/Allied Social Science Associations (ASSA) in San Francisco, California.
· Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Turkey Inflation Rate (December)/ PPI (December)/ MPC Meeting Summary
· Hungary Balance of Trade (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)
· Spain Unemployment Change (December)/ Tourist Arrivals (November)
· Germany Unemployment Change/ Persons/ Rate (December)
· Poland Inflation Rate (December)
· Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (November)/ Mortgage Approvals & Lending (November)/ M4 Money Supply (November)/ Net Lending to Individuals (November)
· Greece Unemployment Rate (November)
· Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate (December)
· France New Car Registrations (December)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Tourist Arrivals (December)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Saturday, January 4, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane will chair a panel on "Banking in an Inflationary Environment" hosted by American Economic Association (AEA) in San Francisco, California.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Sunday, January 5, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Kazakhstan Freedom Holding Corp. Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (December)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (December)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Recommended Weekend Reads
20 Trends to Watch in 2025 and 9 U.S. Political Issues that Bit the Dust in 2024, What Do Chinese Citizens Think of the Communist Party? And The U.S. Assessment of China’s Military
December 27 - 29, 2024
Please find below our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend. And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.
We hope you have a wonderful New Year and our warmest best wishes for a joyful and prosperous 2025!
Global Trends& Events to Watch in 2025
20 Gallup Trends to Watch in 2025 Gallup
Next month’s transfer of power in the U.S. could reshape American views on politics, the economy and societal issues. Generational shifts and technology are also driving change. Gallup lays out 20 trends they are tracking 2025 to see how Americans react to the new political landscape and how society continues to evolve.
The Real Stakes of the AI Race: What America, China, and Middle East Powers Stand to Gain and Lose Reva Goujon/Foreign Affairs
A sense that global technology competition is becoming a zero-sum game, and that the remainder of the twenty-first century will be made in the winner’s image, pervades in Washington, Beijing, and boardrooms worldwide. This angst feeds ambitious industrial policies, precautionary regulations, and multibillion-dollar investments. Yet even as governments and private industry race for supremacy in artificial intelligence, none of them possess a clear vision of what “winning” looks like or what geopolitical returns their investments will yield.
Global Summits to Watch in 2025: Priorities for a Splintering World Council of Councils
Global summits give leaders an opportunity to come together to advance solutions and prepare responses, but can they keep up with the pace at which the world’s most urgent problems are intensifying? Here is a list of the most anticipated summits set for 2025, where newly elected leaders, increased participation from the Global South and emerging powers, and reframed conversations could help answer that question.
9 Political Issues That Bit the Dust This Year Politico Magazine
The end-of-year obituary packages are publishing — remembering the people who shaped our world in ways large and small. Politico decided to do something a little bit different. This year, we asked POLITICO reporters to tell us: What are the trends in politics that died in 2024 — or that are at least heading into obsolescence?
China
Do Chinese Citizens Conceal Opposition to the CCP in Surveys? Evidence from Two Experiments The China Quarterly/Cambridge University Press
There has been a number of questions about the support among average Chinese citizens for the ruling Chinese Communist Party. In this research paper, it is noted that most public opinion research in China uses direct questions to measure support for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and government policies. These direct-question surveys routinely find that over 90 percent of Chinese citizens support the government. From this, scholars conclude that the CCP enjoys genuine legitimacy. However, the researchers who conducted this study found from two survey experiments in contemporary China that make clear that citizens conceal their opposition to the CCP for fear of repression. When respondents are asked in the form of list experiments, which confer a greater sense of anonymity, CCP support hovers between 50 percent and 70 percent. This represents an upper bound, however, since list experiments may not fully mitigate incentives for preference falsification. The list experiments also suggest that fear of government repression discourages some 40 percent of Chinese citizens from participating in anti-regime protests. Most broadly, this paper suggests that scholars should stop using direct question surveys to measure political opinions in China.
Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2024 U.S. Department of Defense Annual Report to Congress
The Defense Department’s annual report charts the course of the PRC’s national, economic, and military strategy and offers insight into the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) strategy, current capabilities, and activities, as well as its future modernization goals. In 2023, the PRC continued its efforts to form the PLA into an increasingly capable instrument of national power. Throughout the year, the PLA adopted more coercive actions in the Indo-Pacific region while accelerating its development of capabilities and concepts to strengthen the PRC’s ability to “fight and win wars” against a “strong enemy,” counter an intervention by a third party in a conflict along the PRC’s periphery, and project power globally. Working-level and senior-level military-to-military channels of communication resumed following President Biden and PRC leader Xi Jinping meeting in November 2023. This report illustrates the importance of meeting the pacing challenge presented by the PRC’s increasingly capable military.
China Ousts Two Military Lawmakers as Xi’s Defense Purge Widens Bloomberg
China abruptly ousted two military lawmakers from its national parliament without explanation, as a purge of key personnel in the upper echelons of the nation’s defense establishment shows no sign of easing. Xi, China’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong, has been intensifying his grip on the military. He ordered a reorganization of the armed forces this year, replacing the Strategic Support Force created in 2015 with three new branches. He also held the first military-political work conference since 2014, a conclave he previously used to assert his authority over the PLA.
The China-Russia relationship and threats to vital US interests Brookings Institution
This piece is part of a series titled “The future of U.S.-China policy: Recommendations for the incoming administration” from Brookings’ John L. Thornton China Center. Four leading scholars of Chinese and Russian foreign policy look at the growing alignment between the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation – an alliance that has significant implications for vital U.S. interests and the interests of U.S. allies and partners. Animated by shared grievances against the configuration of the international order and mutual concerns about perceived external threats, principally from the United States, the Sino-Russian partnership has deepened over the last decade across the military, economic, and diplomatic domains. Beijing and Moscow’s strategic alignment will pose a significant test for the incoming Trump administration.
Americas
Over the past ten years, cocaine has transformed Ecuador from one of South America’s most stable nations – with safer streets and higher living standards than many of its neighbors – into the most dangerous country on the continent. More than 8,000 murders were recorded last year. Victims are wide-ranging: ten volleyball players, nine shrimp fishermen, six mayors, five tourists, two state prosecutors, a presidential candidate and the leader of a political party are among those shot or assassinated since 2023. The industrial city of Durán – where much of the governing apparatus has been hijacked by mobsters – has a good claim to being the murder capital of the world; on average, someone is killed there every 19 hours.
Europe
Offensive Strategy: the EU’s Economic Security Carl Bildt/European Council on Foreign Relations
‘Economic security’ has become a Brussels buzzword in recent years, shaped by a blend of pressure from Washington and Brussels’ own protectionist instincts. In sports, playing defense rarely wins championships. The economic security agenda is defensive; it might slow the decline, but it will not reverse it. What Europe needs is a bold, offensive strategy.
Podcast Recommendation of the Week
China Considered Hosted by Elizabeth Economy, the Hoover Institution
Elizabeth Economy is arguably one of the finest China scholars out there. She now hosts a podcast sponsored by the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. that features in-depth conversations with leading political figures, scholars, and activists from around the world. The series explores the ideas, events, and forces shaping China’s future and its global relationships, offering high-level expertise, clear-eyed analysis, and valuable insights to demystify China’s evolving dynamics and what they may mean for ordinary citizens and key decision-makers across societies, governments, and the private sector.
U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead
The New 119th Congress Gets Sworn In, Big Banks and Trade Associations Sue The Fed Over Stress Tests As Fed Says It Will Overhaul Stress Test Regime
December 30, 2024 - January 3, 2025
We hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas! This will be a quick report. We are all looking forward to a great 2025 and savoring the coming week, which should be very quiet, especially on the regulatory front.
But at the end of the week, a new era begins with the new 119th Congress coming together to be sworn into office. We expect the current Speaker of the House of Representatives, Mike Johnson (R-LA), to be re-elected as Speaker of the House on Friday, but it will be closed. This is one of the closest majorities in history, with 219 House Republicans and 215 Democrats, with one vacancy.
The Senate will be particularly interesting to watch in 2025: Incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) has announced the Senate will work for ten straight weeks before taking a break (except for taking off February 17th for President’s Day). And they will work five days a week instead of the usual three.
Looking at last week, a group of large banks joined forces with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the Bank Policy Institute, the American Bankers Association, and several other trade groups sued the Federal Reserve, claiming the annual bank stress tests lacked transparency and failed to take “public input as required by law.”
The suit was filed despite the Federal Reserve saying this past Monday they intended to make changes to the stress tests and would be seeking public comment and input. However, the Fed did not detail what those changes would be. We believe this situation will add significant pressure from Congress and likely the incoming Trump Administration on Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr to step aside. We will see.
Again, we hope you enjoy the quiet week ahead and have a wonderful New Year! As we said above, nothing is going on this coming week in the regulatory world – you don’t need to read anything beyond this sentence. But if you have any questions, please let us know if you have any questions.
U.S. Congressional Hearings
U.S. Senate
·Friday, 12:00 p.m., January 3, 2025 – The 119th United States Congress will be sworn into office. The Senate will then begin ten weeks of work (with a break on February 17th for President’s Day), being in session five days a week, which breaks from previous historic work schedules.
House of Representatives
Friday, 12:00 p.m., January 3, 2025 – The 119th United States Congress will be sworn into office. The House of Representatives. The House will also vote on who will serve as Speaker of the House, the 130th Speaker of the House of Representatives since the office was created in 1789. Current Speaker Michael Johnson (R-LA) is expected to be re-elected by a slim margin.
Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events
Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
U.S. Treasury Department
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Department of Commerce
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Department of Housing and Urban Development
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Small Business Administration
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Securities and Exchange Commission
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Commodities Futures Trading Commission
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
FINRA
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
National Credit Union Administration
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Farm Credit Administration Wagner Labor Initiative in New York.
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Farm Credit Insurance Corporation
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
International Monetary Fund & World Bank
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
North American Securities Administrators Association
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Trade Associations & Think Tank Events
Trade Associations
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Think Tanks and Other Events
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.
The Global Week Ahead
Peace on Earth and Goodwill to All Men – The World Goes (Mostly) Quiet for Christmas Week
December 22 - 29, 2024
It is shaping up to be a very quiet week around the world. Hopefully, most of the world—or at least a good portion of the world—will enjoy a period of peace, with Christmas being celebrated on Wednesday and Hanukkah also beginning on Wednesday.
We are watching three political events this week: The first in Washington, D.C., the second in South Korea, and the third in Georgia. In Washington on Monday, President Biden is expected to announce his decision to either approve or block Nippon Steel's acquisition bid for U.S. Steel. During the presidential campaign when he was still a candidate, Biden vowed to block the deal to win the support of the United Steelworkers Union, whose leadership strongly opposes the deal (while most of its rank-and-file members support the deal). Reports indicate the Defense Department, Treasury Department, and State Department support the deal – but the very few indications that have come from the White House suggest Biden will abide by his vow to the union and block the deal, which, strangely, will probably end up hurting the overall steel industry in the U.S. and likely severely hurt relations with Japan (not to mention put a chilling effect on foreign investment in the US).
The second event we are watching this week is in Seoul, South Korea. The South Korean Corruption Investigation Office for High-Ranking Officials is expected to summon recently impeached President Yoon for testimony. Whether Yoon shows up is another question, as he has vowed to continue fighting against his recent impeachment and refused to accept any documents or summons from the Court. But it keeps the country's ongoing democratic crisis alive.
The third event is in Georgia where recently appointed far-right presidential candidate Mikheil Kavelashvili is scheduled to be sworn into office on December 29. Kavelashvili was appointed by the country's electoral college, which members of his ruling party dominate. The country's current president, Salome Zurabishvili – pro-EU and opposed to Russia's war on Ukraine – has called Kavelashvili's appointment as president "illegitimate" and said she will not leave office. Protests are expected across the nation.
This week's global economic radar screen will be almost as quiet as the international political week. In Asia, the Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of Australia release minutes from their recent interest rate meetings. In the U.S., the Conference Board releases its Consumer Confidence Index and new residence sales, and we also get the durable goods order report. In Europe, there really are no major reports out this week.
Below is our weekly report of everything else we are watching around the world this coming week. We want to wish you a blessed Christmas and a joyful Hannukah.
Sunday, December 22, 2024:
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· The 26th Harbin Ice and Snow World Festival begins in Harbin, China. The event spans more than 1 million square meters and features 300,000 cubic meters of ice and snow, drawing tens of thousands of tourists.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico. It is one of the few meetings Putin has had with any EU leader in the last three years. The two leaders discussed energy security issues, as Ukraine has pledged to stop the transit of Russian gas through its territory next month.
· Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to open a number of transport/infrastructure facilities across Russia facilities via video link. Putin launched auto traffic on highway 289 linking Krasnodar, Slavyansk-on-Kuban and Temryuk and the A290 Novorossiysk-Kerch motorway. Putin also took part in the ceremony of opening international airports in Magadan, Cheboksary, and Stavropol.
· In Spain, the Loteria de Navidad, aka El Gordo, or the “Fat One”, annual Christmas lotto is held. It is the world’s biggest lottery, which has no single jackpot but rather a complex share-the-wealth system.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Unity Day in Zimbabwe, marking the day in 1987 when two political parties, ZANU and ZAPU, came together to form ZANU-P.F.
Economic Reports/Events –
Monday, December 23, 2024
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Brazil Current Account (November)/ Foreign Direct Investment (November)/ BCB Focus Market Readout
· Mexico Balance of Trade (November)/ Economic Activity (October)/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (December)
· Canada GDP (October)/ Manufacturing Sales (November)/ PPI (November)/ Raw Materials Prices (November)/ BoC Summary of Deliberations
· USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (November)/ CB Consumer Confidence (December)/ NY Fed Treasury Purchases 0 to 1 yrs
· Colombia Business Confidence (November)
· Paraguay GDP Growth Rate Q3
· Uruguay Interest Rate Decision
· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (November)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Japan’s cabinet is expected to approve a new tax reform plan. The plan is aimed at funding a scheduled defense budget hike via corporate and tobacco levies starting in 2026.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Indonesia M2 Money Supply (November)
· Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)
· Singapore Inflation Rate (November)
· Taiwan Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)
· China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· In Albania, opposition parties are expected to block roads across the country, demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Edi Rama.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Germany Import Prices (November)
· Great Britain Current Account Q3/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Business Investment Q3
· Hungary Balance of Trade Final (October)/ Current Account Q3
· Spain GDP Growth Rate Q3
· Poland Unemployment Rate (November)/ M3 Money Supply (November)
· Slovenia Business Confidence (December)/ Unemployment Rate (October)
· Ireland Wholesale Prices (November)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Manufacturing Production (October)/ Manufacturing PMI (November)
· Kuwait Inflation Rate (November)
· Qatar Inflation Rate (November)/ M2 Money Supply (November)/ Total Credit Growth (November)
· Lebanon Inflation Rate (November)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Mozambique’s Constitutional Court will deliver a final verdict on the outcome of the country’s October 9 general elections. The losing opposition party of Venancio Mondlane says the election was rigged.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Tuesday, December 24, 2024
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· President Biden is expected to decide on a recommendation by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) on Nippon Steel’s bid to acquire U.S. Steel. During the campaign season, Biden told the United Steelworkers Union – who adamantly oppose the deal – “he had their back” and would block the deal. However, there are no apparent national security concerns to the deal, putting Biden in a tough position to come up with a valid reason to block the deal. Nevertheless, it is widely believed Biden will block the deal.
· NASA’s Parker Space Probe will come closer to the sun’s surface than any other flight ever before – 3.8 million miles away from the surface of the sun.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Chile PPI (November)
· USA Durable Goods Orders (November)/ Redbook (December/21)/ New Home Sales (November)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing/ Manufacturing Shipments/ Services Revenues Index (December)/ Money Supply (November)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (December/20)/ Building Permits Final (November)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea Consumer Confidence (December)
· Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
· Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
· Malaysia PPI (November)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Moldova holds the inauguration of President-elect Maia Sandu. Sandu won by a narrow margin despite Russian meddling in the election.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Netherlands GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Current Account Q3
· Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (November)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Libya Independence Day, marking the day in 1952 when the country gained its independence from the UK and France.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Composite Economic Index (November)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Wednesday, December 25, 2024
Global
· Today is Christmas Day. Markets in Europe, North and South America, South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Indonesia, India, and Australia will be closed. Markets will be open in Japan, mainland China, Taiwan and Thailand.
· Today is the first day of Hannukah.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya will meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing. The two diplomats are expected to explore ways to stabilize relations amid heightened tensions between the two countries.
· South Korea’s Corruption Investigation Office for High-Ranking Officials is expected to summon recently impeached President Yoon for testimony.
· Today is Quaid-E-Azam Day in Pakistan, celebrating the birthday of Muhammad Ali Jinnah’s. He is widely seen as the founder of the country. It is a national holiday.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Bank of Japan Governor Kauo Ueda will speak at a meeting of Councilors of Keidanren (Japan Business Federation) in Tokyo.
· Japan Coincident Index Final (October)/ Leading Economic Index Final (October)/ Foreign Bond Investment (December/21)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (December/21)
· India M3 Money Supply (December/13)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The Supreme Eurasian Economic Council (EAEU) meets in St. Petersburg, Russia. The meeting will be chaired by Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. The Council brings together the prime ministers of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia to discuss how to further economic integration and will focus on energy and industrial cooperation and the development of e-commerce.
· King Charles delivers the annual Christmas message.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Thursday, December 26, 2024
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· USA Initial Jobless Claims (December/21)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (December/20)/ Fed Balance Sheet (December/25)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/25)
· Argentina Retail Sales (October)
· Colombia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Former Taiwanese President Ma is expected to visit with students in Harbin and Sichuan, China.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Japan Housing Starts (November)/ Construction Orders (November)
· Singapore Industrial Production (November)
· Philippines Budget Balance (November)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Slovenia Independence Day, celebrating the day in 1990 when an independence referendum was held separating the country from Yugoslavia.
· Today is Boxing Day. The London Stock Exchange is closed as will markets in Hong Kong, Indonesia, and Australia.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Spain PPI (November)
· Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (December)
· France Unemployment Benefit Claims (November)/ Jobseekers Total (November)
· Turkey Overnight Borrowing & Lending Rate (December)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/20)
· Ireland Consumer Confidence (December)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)
· Israel M1 Money Supply (November)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Angola Wholesale Prices (November)
· Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate
Friday, December 27, 2024
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Brazil IGP-M Inflation (December)/ Bank Lending (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (December)/ Net Payrolls (November)
· USA Goods Trade Balance (November)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (November)/ Wholesale Inventories (November)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (October)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (December/20)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (December/27)
· Paraguay Current Account Q3
· Costa Rica Current Account Q3/ GDP Growth Rate Q3
· Panama Current Account Q3
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· The South Korean Constitutional Court will hold the first public hearing on President Yoon’s impeachment. Yoon was impeached by the South Korean parliament on December 14.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea Business Confidence (December)
· Japan Unemployment Rate (November)/ Jobs/applications ratio (November)/ Tokyo CPI (December)/ BoJ Summary of Opinions/ Retail Sales (November)/ Industrial Production (November)
· China Industrial Profits (YTD) (November)/ Current Account Final Q3
· Taiwan Consumer Confidence (December)
· Thailand Industrial Production (November)/ Current Account (November)/ Private Consumption & Investment (November)/ Retail Sales (October)
· Singapore Import/ Export Prices (November)/ PPI (November)
· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/20)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The Chaos Computer Club Congress begins in Hamburg, Germany. It is the largest gathering of hackers in Europe.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Spain Retail Sales (November)
· Slovenia Retail Sales (November)
· Russia Unemployment Rate (November)/ Business Confidence (December)/ Real Wage Growth (October)/ Retail Sales (November)/ GDP (November)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (December)
· Egypt M2 Money Supply (November)
Saturday, December 28, 2024
Global
· Today is the Feast of the Holy Innocents.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Sunday, December 29, 2024
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Mongolia Independence Day, celebrating when the country gained its freedom in 1911 from the Qing China dynasty.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Croatia holds the first round of its presidential elections.
· Georgia will hold its presidential inauguration. Tensions remain high in the country, and mass protests are likely to be held in opposition to the swearing-in of Mikheil Kavelashvili.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (November)/ Private Bank Lending (November)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Chad holds parliamentary elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
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