Recommended Weekend Reads

The Future of NATO and the Transatlantic Relationship, Are Trump’s Tariffs Working? And The Persistent Global Fertility Decline

February 13 - 15, 2026

Below are several reports and articles we read this past week that we found particularly interesting.  I hope you find them both interesting and useful.  Have a great weekend.

The Future of NATO and the Munich Security Conference 

NOTE: With the Munich Security Conference taking place this weekend, we wanted to bring focus to several of the key issues being discussed and debated.

• Trump’s NATO Dilemma – America Can’t Disengage from the Alliance and Also Lead It    Sara Bjerg Moller/Foreign Affairs

  Amid a sea of disruptions—territorial threats against Denmark, missed alliance meetings by senior U.S. diplomats, and planned personnel reductions at NATO installations—the Trump administration’s second-term approach to NATO is now coming into focus. Rather than openly abandoning the alliance, as some analysts feared, the United States appears to be “quiet quitting”: incrementally stepping away from the alliance it has led for close to eight decades. The White House seems to believe that only if the United States steps back will Europe finally be forced to step up.  But it will find that walking away from overseeing NATO’s military machinery is far harder than anticipated. NATO’s command structure was built around U.S. infrastructure and personnel, and no other member of the alliance is currently equipped to replace Washington. If Trump does choose to push ahead with his planned disengagement, the logistics of succession would be the least of the United States’ concerns. No major power has ever voluntarily surrendered control, much less command, of an alliance it built and led. Doing so at a moment of profound geopolitical upheaval would weaken the transatlantic partnership—and leave the United States less secure.
  

• Poll: Top NATO allies don’t think the US helps deter enemies anymore     Politico EU

  As global leaders convene in Germany for the Munich Security Conference, new results from The POLITICO Poll show President Donald Trump’s efforts to rewrite longstanding international relationships — particularly in Europe — are repelling longtime, traditionally loyal partners. The United States’ eroding reputation is raising fresh questions about the stability of the global order that has held for decades, and of the country’s strength on the world stage. Across all countries polled, far more people described the U.S. as an unreliable ally than a reliable one, including half the adults polled in Germany and 57 percent in Canada. In France, too, the share of people who called the U.S. unreliable was more than double the share who said it was reliable.
  

• Can Germany's Merz be the savior of Europe?    Reuters Commentary

  European Union leaders are meeting this week to discuss how to boost the bloc's competitiveness. While President Donald Trump’s withering description of Europe last month as a "decaying" region was unwelcome, it may be what finally prompts them to take much-needed action. Germany has historically been a brake on EU reform, but Berlin now appears to be on board. Chancellor Friedrich Merz told the World Economic Forum in Davos last month that the EU now had no choice but to urgently pursue former European Central Bank president Mario Draghi’s blueprint for a competitive Europe.
  

• Europe’s Next Hegemon: The Perils of German Power    Liana Fix/Foreign Affairs

  After many delays, Germany’s Zeitenwende—its 2022 promise to become one of Europe’s defense leaders—is finally becoming a reality. In 2025, Germany spent more on defense than any other European country in absolute terms. Its military budget today ranks fourth in the world, just after Russia’s. Annual military spending is expected to reach $189 billion in 2029, more than triple what it was in 2022. Germany is even considering a return to mandatory conscription if its military, the Bundeswehr, cannot attract enough voluntary recruits. Should the country stay the course, it will again be a great military power before 2030.
  

• Vladimir Putin is trapped in a war he cannot win but dare not end     Peter Dickerson/The Atlantic Council

  Putin’s reluctance to accept Trump’s offer makes perfect sense when viewed from the perspective of the Russian ruler’s revisionist worldview and imperial ambitions. Crucially, Putin is well aware that any peace deal based on the current front lines of the war would leave 80 percent of Ukraine beyond Kremlin control and free to integrate into the democratic world. That is exactly what he is fighting to prevent. As the war enters a fifth year, Putin finds himself in an unenviable predicament. He has no obvious pathway to victory, but cannot agree to a compromise peace without acknowledging what would amount to a historic defeat and placing his own political survival in question.
  

Tariffs, Trade, and Geoeconomics

• Who Is Paying for the 2025 U.S. Tariffs?    Federal Reserve Bank of New York

  The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is out with a new analysis that finds ~90% of tariffs’ economic burden was borne by American firms and consumers in the first 8 months of 2025. Between January and November, however, that incidence declined 88 percent as firms reorganized supply chains.

• Americans Largely Disapprove of Trump’s Tariff Increases    Pew Research Center

  By a wide margin, Americans continue to say they disapprove of the Trump Administration substantially increasing tariffs: 60% say, including 39% who say they strongly disapprove.  By contrast, 37% say they approve of the increased tariffs, and just 13% strongly approve.  Views of the Administration’s tariff increase have been relatively stable since last April, when President Donald Trump unveiled his far-reaching tariff policy.

• Trump Tariffs: Tracking the Economic Impact of the Trump Trade War   The Tax Foundation

  President Trump has imposed International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs on US trading partners, including China, Canada, Mexico, and the EU. In addition, he has threatened and imposed Section 232 tariffs on autos, heavy trucks, steel, aluminum, lumber, furniture, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and copper, among others.  The Trump tariffs amount to an average tax increase per US household of $1,000 in 2025 and $1,300 in 2026.  Under the tariffs imposed and scheduled as of February 6, 2026, the weighted average applied tariff rate on all imports rises to 13.5 percent, and the average effective tariff rate, reflecting behavioral responses, rises to 9.9 percent—the highest average rate since 1946.  The Trump tariffs are the largest US tax increase as a percent of GDP (0.54 percent for 2026) since 1993.  Trump’s imposed tariffs will raise $2.0 trillion in revenue from 2026-2035 on a conventional basis and reduce US GDP by 0.5 percent, all before foreign retaliation. Accounting for negative economic effects, the revenue raised by the tariffs falls to $1.6 trillion over the next decade. We estimate that the tariffs raised $132 billion in net tax revenue in 2025. The Trump tariffs threaten to offset much of the economic benefits of the new tax cuts, while falling short of paying for them.

Demographic Trends and Employment Gaps

• The Likelihood of Persistently Low Global Fertility      Journal of Economic Perspectives

  Low fertility is likely to persist as a global phenomenon as pro-natal policies have been insufficient to “adequately challenge conventions, challenge social orders, and challenge what gets society’s attention, power, and investment.”

• Switzerland To Vote On Plan To Cap Population At 10mn     Financial Times

  Switzerland will hold a vote on a radical proposal to cap the country’s population at 10mn people, a move that could threaten crucial agreements with the EU and limit companies’ access to skilled foreign workers.  The country’s current population is 9.1 million people, and Switzerland has a high level of immigration, as people are drawn by its high wages and quality of life.  It has one of the largest proportions of foreign residents in Europe, at 27% according to official figures, and its population has grown by some 25% since 2000, much higher than most neighboring countries.

•  The H-1B Wage Gap, Visa Fees, and Employer Demand    George J. Borjas/National Bureau of Economic ResearchAbstract: The H-1B program lets firms hire high-skill foreign workers for a six-year term. The annual number of visas allocated to for-profit firms is capped at 85,000 and there is excess demand for those visas. The analysis merges administrative data, including the I-129 petitions that report the wage offer made to specific H-1B beneficiaries, with the American Community Surveys. On average, H-1B workers earn 16 percent less than comparable natives, suggesting that firms may be willing to pay a one-time fee to obtain the visa. The data are examined using a labor demand model to simulate how a fee alters the hiring decision. Depending on the level of excess demand, the unobserved productivity gains or costs from an H-1B hire, and the rate of job separations, the revenue-maximizing fee is between $118,000 and $264,000, has little or no impact on the number of H-1Bs hired, and generates between $6.2 and $22.4 billion in revenues. The demand for visas remains strong even if firms offshore some of the jobs currently held by H-1Bs. The fee also changes the skill composition of the H-1B workforce, making it more skilled.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

SEC Chair Atkins Testifies Before Congress on The SEC’s Agenda, Fed Vice Chair Bowman Speaks on the Regulatory Outlook, And Treasury Secretary Bessent Gives a Peek into The Trump Regulatory Reform Plan

February 9 - 13, 2026

It is a busy week for financial regulatory strategy.  First, Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Paul Atkins will testify before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday and the Senate Banking Committee regarding his strategic plans for the SEC.  

While this is happening, Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will be giving a closely watched virtual speech at the Keefe, Bruyette & Woods 33rd Annual Winter Financial Services Conference.  Both Atkins's and Bowman’s remarks follow Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s testimony last week before Congress on the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC).  

Bessent said the Administration will focus on regulations that hinder economic growth.  “FSOC should … work with its members to support efforts to avoid or pare back existing regulation that stifles pro-growth lending, capital formation, and innovation. And the best way to achieve these goals is by centering economic growth and economic security at the heart of FSOC’s agenda,” he said.

Bessent said he supports higher deposit insurance levels and that we should expect new nonbank guidance later this year that updates Biden-era standards for nonbank financial institutions.  Overall, Bessent made it very clear that he and the White House intend to direct deregulatory changes rather than maintain regulatory independence and hope for the best. 

Also, last week, CFTC Chair Michael Selig announced that the agency would support prediction markets and craft new rules for them. “Consistent with my commitment to fostering responsible innovation in crypto asset markets, I will continue to support the responsible development of event contract markets,” said Selig.

For banks, the big event was the Federal Reserve's finalization of the 2026 stress test exams. You can find them HERE.  Thirty-two large banks will be tested against a severe global recession scenario, including a nearly 5.5 percentage-point rise in unemployment, a roughly 30% decline in home prices, and stress in commercial real estate and corporate debt markets. 

Below is the full report on financial regulatory-related events this week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

·       Thursday, February 12, 10:00 a.m. – SEC Chair Paul Atkins will testify before the House Financial Services Committee at a hearing entitled “Oversight of the Securities and Exchange Committee.”  

House of Representatives

·       Tuesday, February 10, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing entitled “Building a Solid Foundation: Restoring Trust and Transparency in Public Housing Agencies.”

·       Wednesday, February 11, 10:00 a.m. – SEC Chair Paul Atkins will testify before the House Financial Services Committee at a hearing entitled “Oversight of the Securities and Exchange Committee.”  You can read the Committee’s background memorandum on the hearing HERE.

 ·       Wednesday, February 11, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Housing and Insurance will hold a hearing entitled “Homeownership and the Role of the Secondary Mortgage Market.”

Federal Department & Regulatory Meetings & Events

The White House

 ·       Nothing significant to report.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

·       Monday, February 9, 1:30 p.m. PST – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller will give a speech on digital assets at the Global Interdependence Center Summit: The Dollar and Continued U.S. Exceptionalism, La Jolla, California.

·       Monday, February 9: 23 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran will participate in a conversation on the economy at the Boston University Questrom School of Business Events and Conference Center, Boston, Massachusetts. Later (5:00 p.m.), he will participate in a conversation at the WBUR Podcast: Is Business Broken, in Boston.

·       Tuesday, February 9, 12:00 p.m. – Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on “Banking and the Economic Outlook" before the 2026 Ohio Bankers League Economic Summit

·       Tuesday, February 10, 1:00 p.m. – Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan speaks and participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the 2026 Asset Management Derivatives Forum hosted by SIFMA and FIA.

·       Wednesday, February 11, 10:10 a.m. – Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid speaks on monetary policy and the economic outlook before the Economic Forum of Albuquerque, New Mexico.

·       Wednesday, February 11, 10:15 a.m. - Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will speak on supervision and regulation at the Keefe, Bruyette & Woods 33rd Annual Winter Financial Services Conference (virtual)

·       Wednesday, February 11, 4:00 p.m. – Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack participates in Leadership Dialogue, “Exploring Leadership, Economic Policy, and Career Pathways in Public Service" Leadership Dialogue hosted by the Ohio State University John Glenn College of Public Affairs.

·       Thursday, February 12, 7:05 p.m. CT – Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran will participate in a conversation at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Global Perspectives Event, Dallas, Texas.

U.S. Treasury Department

·       Nothing significant to report.

Department of Commerce

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

·       Wednesday, February 11, 10:00 a.m. – SEC Chair Paul Atkins will testify before the House Financial Services Committee at a hearing entitled “Oversight of the Securities and Exchange Committee.”  You can read the Committee’s background memorandum on the hearing HERE.

·       Thursday, February 12, 10:00 a.m. – SEC Chair Paul Atkins will testify before the Senate Banking Committee hearing entitled “Oversight of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.” 

·       Thursday, February 12, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

·       Nothing significant to report.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

·       Nothing significant to report.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

·       Thursday, February 12, 10:00 a.m. – the FCA Board meets to consider a new Human Capital Overview Report and the final rule dealing with business planning.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

·       Wednesday, February 11, 10:00 a.m. – the FCSIC Board meets.  In open/new business session they will consider: The Review and Setting of Insurance Premium Accrual Rates, Payment from Allocated Insurance Reserves Accounts, A Policy Statement re: Allowance for Insurance Fund Loss, A Policy Statement re: Alternative Means of Dispute Resolution, and a Policy Statement re: Receivership and Conservatorship Counsel.  In Closed Session, they will review the Annual Report of Contracts and the Annual Report on Whistleblower Activity.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

·       Sunday – Wednesday, February 8 – 11: SIFMA and the FIA hold their Asset Management Derivatives Forum in Austin, Texas.

Think Tanks and Other Events

·       Tuesday, February 10, 3:00 p.m. – The Urban Institute holds a virtual discussion on "The Next Chapter of Community Development Finance and Place-Based Investment."

·       Thursday, February 12, 1:00 p.m. – The Brookings Institution hosts a discussion on “The Future of the Digital Economy.”

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

The Global Week Ahead

NATO Defense Ministers Meet to Discuss Ukraine, The Munich Security Conference Brings Focus to the Future of NATO, the Lunar New Year Begins, and a Week of Big Earnings

February 8 - 15, 2026

The geopolitical focus this week will be on Europe, with a focus on Ukraine and NATO.  The big event of the week is the annual Munich Security Conference (MSC), which begins on Friday.  There is always a lot of news from the MSC, and we expect this year to be no different, as a major theme of the conference is the future of NATO and Europe’s drive to build a stronger, more integrated defense sector.

 However, the MSC comes on the heels of an important meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels on Thursday to discuss further military support for Ukraine.  US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has indicated he plans to skip the meeting.  Later in the day, EU defense ministers will meet amongst themselves and with Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov to discuss the situation in Ukraine.

We would also note that, while it has yet to be formally announced, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has told reporters he expects the first trilateral peace talks among Ukraine, Russia, and the USto take place sometime this week, most likely in Miami.  

The biggest event of the week took place today (Sunday) in Japan, with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s landslide win in snap elections.  Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) gained a historic supermajority in the Japanese Diet (Parliament), winning 316 of the 465 seats.  The results are expected to have major impacts on Japan’s defense strategy and tax cuts, and to put pressure on the Bank of Japan to hold rates.

In the US, Washington’s growing focus on Latin America continues as summit on Friday to discuss common security concerns.  

This comes as President Trump hosts a Hispanic Prosperity Gala at Mar-a-Lago, Florida.  Argentine President Javier Milei and former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro are expected to attend.

Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen this week, markets are watching for the delayed January jobs data, released on Wednesday, and the delayed January CPI report, released on Friday.  

In Europe this week, it is a relatively light data week.  European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give several speeches, including two at the Munich Security Conference.  In the UK, Q4 GDP is released on Thursday. 

Moving to Asia, Japan’s Economy Watchers survey is out on Monday, and PPI on Thursday.  China’s inflation reports are out on Wednesday.

Finally, this is a heavy earnings week in the US and Europe.  Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, February 8, 2026

Global

·       In Bahrain, the UN-sponsored World Entrepreneurs Investment Forum 2026 will be held through February 10th.

·       The 2026 Winter Olympics continue through February 22nd in Milan, Italy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NASA may launch three American astronauts and a Canadian from the Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida.  This would be the first crewed lunar voyage in over 50 years. The 10-day flight around the moon and back will mark the second mission of Artemis, the successor to the Apollo programmed the cold war era. A moon landing is the goal of the next Artemis mission

·       Super Bowl LX will be played in Santa Clara, California.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan holds lower house elections.  Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called for snap elections to solidify her party’s position.  More than 1,200 candidates are competing for 465 seats.

·       Thailand holds general elections for its 500 seat lower house. This is the first election since 2023.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Portugal holds second round election votes for president.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the IMF/Saudi Ministry of Finance 2nd AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies in Saudi Arabia.  

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The World Defense Show begins in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia through February 12th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, February 9, 2026

Global

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller will give a speech on digital assets at the Global Interdependence Center Summit: The Dollar and Continued U.S. Exceptionalism, La Jolla, California.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran will participate in a conversation on the economy at the Boston University Questrom School of Business Events and Conference Center, Boston, Massachusetts. Later, eh will participate in a conversation at the WBUR Podcast: Is Business Broken, in Boston.

·       Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic participates in a moderated conversation with Pro Farmer.

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (January)

·       USA Consumer Inflation Expectations

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Hong Kong media tycoon Jimmy Lai is due to be sentenced, following his conviction in a controversial trial that drew global attention. Lai was found guilty of colluding with foreign forces under the National Security Law that China imposed on Hong Kong in 2020, and of publishing seditious materials.  He could receive a life sentence.

·       The Philippines' House of Representatives is expected to vote on whether to revive impeachment complaints against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. While a lower house committee previously dismissed the bid for "lack of substance," a one-third vote from the chamber could still overturn that decision.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (December)/ Overtime Pay (December)/ Overtime Pay (December)/ Bank Lending (January)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (January)

·       Australia Household Spending (December)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (January)/ Motorbike Sales (January)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (December)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       EARNINGS: DBS

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Great Britain’s Prince William is scheduled to visit Saudi Arabia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in debate on the state of the EU economy and ECB activities in Strasbourg, France.

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane gives a lecture at Maynooth University in Maynooth, Ireland.

·       European Central. Bank Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus speaks in Vilnius, Lithuania.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel joins panel discussion on inflation in Karlsruhe, Germany.

·       Romania Balance of Trade (December)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (December)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (January)

·       Hungary Budget Balance (January)

·       EARNINGS: UniCredit

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

South Africa will host the Mining Indaba conference in Cape Town through February 12th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Angola Inflation Rate (January)

Tuesday, February 10, 2026

Global

·       International Energy Week runs through February 12 in London, assembling global leaders to tackle key issues in the energy transition.

·       The Oslo Energy Forum is being held in Oslo, Norway.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Vice President JD Vance will visit Armenia.

·       President Trump hosts the Hispanic Prosperity Gala at Mar-a-Lago, Florida.  Argentine President Javier Milei and former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro are expected to attend.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speaks at the Ohio Bankers League Economic Summit in Cleveland, Ohio.

·       Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks at the Asset Management Derivatives Forum.

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (January)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Retail Sales (December)/ Employment Cost Index Q4/ Export Prices (December)/ Import Prices (December)/ Redbook (February/07)/ Business Inventories (November)/ Total Household Debt Q4/ Fed Hammack Speech/ Fed Logan Speech/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (February/06)

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (January)/ Car Production (January)/ New Car Registrations (January)

·       Mexico Auto Exports & Production (January)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (January)

·       El Salvador PPI (January)

·       EARNINGS: Ford, Mattel, Principal Financial, CVS Health, Duke Energy, AstraZeneca, AIG, Coca-Cola, Spotify

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Cryptocurrency data company CoinDesk holds its Consensus HK Conference through Thursday in Hong Kong, bringing industry luminaries to a city striving to develop as a hub for the sector. But the shaky performance of Bitcoin and other digital currencies so far this year will be looming over the festivities.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (February)/ NAB Business Confidence (January)/ Building Permits (December)/ Private House Approvals (December)

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (December)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (December)

·       India RBI Market Borrowing Auctions

·       EARNINGS: Mazda, Honda

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (January)

·       Ireland Construction PMI (January)

·       France Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Turkey Industrial Production (December)

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (December)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (December)

·       Greece Industrial Production (December)

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (January)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (January)

·       EARNINGS: Barclays, BP,

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (December)

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Kenya Interest Rate Decision

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (January)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (January)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (January)

Wednesday, February 11, 2026

Global

·       The UN’s the 6th Global Conference on the Elimination of Child Labour will be held from through February 13th in Marrakech, Morocco.

·       OPEC releases its monthly oil market report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Vice President JD Vance is expected to visit Azerbaijan.

·       The US will host the inaugural Western Hemisphere Chiefs of Defense Conference in Washington.

·       Barbados holds elections for their House of Assembly.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will speak on supervision and regulation at the Keefe, Bruyette & Woods 33rd Annual Winter Financial Services Conference (virtual)

·       Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid speaks at the Economic Forum of Albuquerque, New Mexico.

·       Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speaks on leadership at Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio.

·       Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Brazil PPI (December)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (December)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (February/06)/ MBA Purchase Index (February/06)/ Non-Farm Payrolls (January)/ Unemployment Rate (January)/ Average Hourly Earnings (January)/ Participation Rate (January)/ Government Payrolls (January)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (January)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (February)/ Monthly Budget Statement (January)

·       Bank on Canada releases summary of deliberations/Canada Building Permits (December)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (December)

·       Peru Balance of Trade (December)

·       EARNINGS: Cisco, Hilton Worldwide, McDonald’s, Tenet Healthcare, T-Mobile US, Kraft Heinz

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China is expected to conduct a test launch of its new Long March-10A rocket, slated for use on lunar missions.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Australia Home Loans Q4/ Investment Lending for Homes Q4/ RBA Hauser Speech

·       China Inflation Rate (January)/ PPI (January)

·       Malaysia Construction Output Q4/ Unemployment Rate (December)

·       India M3 Money Supply (January/23)

·       EARNINGS: Grab, Commonwealth Bank of Australia

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Defense Ministers will meet in Brussels to discuss the situation in Ukraine and how to offer greater support.  US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has indicated he intends to skip the meeting.

·       Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis will meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara, Turkey.  The meeting will focus on managing bilateral relations and delimiting the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) as well as discussions of the continental shelf and mining.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Vice President Piero Cipollone participates in a fireside chat at the Frankfurt Digital Finance Conference 2026 in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives the Eugen Böhm von Bawerk Lecture at the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, Austria.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen gives closing remarks at the Residential Policy Workshop 'AMLA and the reshaping of money laundering supervision in the EU' in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives opening remarks at the Residential Policy Workshop 'AMLA and the reshaping of money laundering supervision in the EU' in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England’s Executive Director of International James Talbot will give a speech at the London School of Economics on “Climate Change, the Economy, and the Financial System: Perspectives from the Bank of England.)

·       Turkey Retail Sales (December)

·       Italian Industrial Production (December)

·       Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Russia Balance of Trade (December)/ Business Confidence (January)/ Corporate Profits (November)

·       EARNINGS: Commerzbank, Dassault Systemes, TotalEnergies,  

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Egypt will host the AI Everything Middle East and Africa Summit in Cairo through February 12th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The 39th Ordinary Summit of the African Union will be held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia through February 15th.  Heads of state will be gathered to discuss security and economic issues.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (December and January)

Thursday, February 12, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the 1988 Committee. Also, in the morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen).

·       The International Energy Agency releases its monthly oil market report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran will participate in a conversation with Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Global Perspectives Event, Dallas, Texas.

·       Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers speaks in Toronto.

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (February/07)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (January/31)/ Existing Home Sales (January)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (February/06)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (February/12)/ Fed Balance Sheet (February/11)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (January)

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Airbnb, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Applied Materials, Wynn Resorts

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Bangladesh heads to the polls, with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party tipped to perform well, while Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami has emerged as a significant force as voters eye a change from politics as usual. The party led by the students who drove the 2024 protests has failed to build momentum, however, and has become part of a Jamaat-led alliance.

·       Singapore Finance Minister Lawrence Wong delivers the 2026 budget statement in Parliament.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (February)/ RBA Hunter Speech

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (November)

·       Japan Machine Tool Orders (January)

·       India Inflation Rate (January)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (January)

·       EARNINGS: Softbank, Nissan

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Defense Ministers will meet in Brussels.  US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is expected to sip the meeting.

·       There will be a meeting of the EU Foreign Affairs Council (Defense) in Brussels.  The Council will discuss EU military support to Ukraine, with a focus on cooperation in defense innovation, after an informal exchange of views with the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Mykhailo Fedorov, who will be present in person.

·       There will be an informal meeting at an EU leaders retreat in Alden Biesen castle in Belgium.  The focus on the retreat, according to an invitation letter sent by EU President António Costa, is competitiveness and “strengthening the single market in the new geoeconomic context.”

·       There will be an informal meeting of the EU Employment and Social Affairs Council through February 13th in Belgium.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Vice President Piero Cipollone gives a lecture at a conference organized by the Commissione Europa of the Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei in Rome, Italy.

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane gives a speech at The World Ahead 2026 Sofia Gala Dinner in Sofia, Bulgaria.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel gives speech on European monetary policy at Euro50 Group

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (January)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Business Investment Q4/ Goods Trade Balance (December)/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Construction Orders Q4/ Industrial Production (December)/ Manufacturing Production (December)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (January)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (January)

·       Turkey Inflation Report/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/06)

·       Poland GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Greece Inflation Rate (January)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

·       Russia Current Account Q4

·       Germany Current Account (December)

·       EARNINGS: Hermès, L’Oreal, Mercedes-Benz, Schroders, Siemens, Swisscom, Thyssenkrupp, Unilever, British American Tobacco

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (December)/ Mining Production (December)/ Manufacturing Production (December)

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, February 13, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).

·       The G7 Foreign Ministers are expected to meet on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference in Munich, Germany.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil’s Rio Carnival opening ceremony is held.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Retail Sales (December)

·       USA Inflation Rate (January)/ CPI (January)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (February/13)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (January)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Argentina Leading Indicator (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Naoki Tamura gives a speech at the Kanagawa Keizai Doyukai.

·       South Korea Import Prices (January)/ Export Prices (January)

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (January)/ Visitor Arrivals (December)/ Business Inflation Expectations Q1

·       China House Price Index (January)

·       Malaysia Current Account Q4/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       India WPI Food Index/ Fuel/ Inflation/ Manufacturing (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/06)

·       Kazakhstan Unemployment Rate Q4/ GDP (January)

·       Indonesia Car Sales (January)

·       EARNINGS: Kirin

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Munich Security Conference begins in Munich, Germany and runs through February 15th.

·       The UK Parliament goes into recess until February 23rd.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos gives a lecture at the Academia Europea Leadership in Barcelona, Spain.  Later, he gives remarks and participates in a Q&A at the Círculo de Confianza by Foment de Trebal in Barcelona, Spain.

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks in a fireside chat at a Santander event in London.

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (January)

·       Romania Industrial Production (December)

·       Turkey Current Account (December)

·       Hungary Construction Output (December)/ Industrial Production (December)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (January)

·       Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Spain Inflation Rate (January)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (January)/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Current Account (December)

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (December)/ Employment Change Q4/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       Serbia Building Permits (December)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (September, October, November, and December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, February 14, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China New Yuan Loans (January)/ M2 Money Supply (January)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (January)/ Total Social Financing (January)/ Current Account Prel Q4

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives opening remarks at a roundtable discussion on trade dependencies and global supply chains during the Munich Security Conference 2026 in Munich, Germany.

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Q4

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 15, 2026

 Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Lunar New Year begins.  China begins a weeklong holiday to celebrate the Year of the Horse.  Financial markets are closed in Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam, and China.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates on a panel discussion on European Competitiveness during the Munich Security Conference 2026 in Munich, Germany.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (January)/ Wholesale Prices (January)

·       Israel Inflation Rate (January)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Unemployment Rate Q4

The Global Week Ahead

The US and Iran Begin Talks to Avert a US Military Strike, The US Hosts a Critical Mineral Summit, Japan Holds Elections, and the ECB and Bank of England Meet on Interest Rates

February 1 - 8, 2026

Washington remains frozen and covered in “snowcrete,” but there is a lot going on here in terms of geopolitical activity.   First, it appears the US will be meeting with Iranian officials face-to-face this coming Friday in Istanbul to attempt to negotiate over Iran’s nuclear program.  Up until this point, there have been no official face-to-face meetings between the two countries, but Iran, seeing the approach of a large US Naval force and President Trump’s demands for talks, relented.  The impact on oil/gas markets could be significant if an agreement is ultimately reached.

 Also this week, on Wednesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio is hosting a critical minerals ministerial meeting where a dozen or more foreign ministers will gather to hammer out the details of a draft Critical Minerals and Rare Earth Framework.  The proposed Framework would ensure all signatories have access to critical minerals, facilitating greater and freer trade.  Among the confirmed attendees are India, South Korea, Australia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Guinea, and Kenya. 

Finally, we would note that President Trump is scheduled to meet with Colombian President Gustavo Petro on Wednesday.  The aim of the meeting is to de-escalate tensions after Trump snatched Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro and began to bicker with Petro over drug interdiction policy.  A positive outcome of the meeting would further solidify Trump's policy of greater US engagement and influence in the Hemisphere.

Turning to Asia, on Sunday, Japan heads to the voting booth after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called snap elections.  Polls suggest Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) could score a landslide victory (estimates put it at more than 233 of the total 465 seats), giving her a strong hand to push forward with her “proactive” fiscal policy focused on bigger spending and tax cuts. 

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, the big events are in Frankfurt and London, respectively, as the European Central Bank and the Bank of England meet to consider further interest rate cuts.  Both are expected to hold off on any further rate cuts. 

In the US, the major economic releases this week include the jobs report on Friday.  This follows the JOLTS report (Tuesday) and the ADP report (Wednesday).  Also, out this week are the ISM indices on Monday (manufacturing) and Wednesday (services), and the University of Michigan consumer survey on Friday.  

In Europe, the January CPIs for France, Germany, Italy, and Spain are out this week.  Germany releases factor order and industrial production figures this week.  And we will also see retail sales and trade figures for most major Eurozone countries.

In Asia this week, the Reserve Bank of Australia meets to decide on interest rates.  China releases January PMIs on Saturday, and in Japan, the Bank of Japan releases its summary of recent interest rate deliberations.  

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, February 1, 2026

Global

·       The OPEC+ monthly meeting will be held virtually.

·       The UK assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of February.

·       The Arctic Frontiers Conference is held in Tromso, Norway.

·       The International Submarine Cable Resilience Summit begins in Porto, Portugal.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Costa Rica holds presidential and parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi presents the country's annual budget for the fiscal year starting in April, with the focus likely to be on fields such as infrastructure development, green energy and steps to boost export competitiveness amid U.S. President Donald Trump's punishing 50% tariffs on Indian goods.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       India Union Budget 2026

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The second round of Russia-Ukraine peace talks is scheduled to begin in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, February 2, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in moderated conversation on monetary policy before the Atlanta Rotary Club.

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (December)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (January)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (January)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (January)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (January)/ Loan Officer Survey/ Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (January)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (January)

·       EARNINGS: Palantir, Disney, Tysons Food

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The travel period for China's Spring Festival celebrations will commence and last through March 13th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (January)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (January)/ Commodity Prices (January)

·       Bank of Japan releases its Summary of Opinions/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Tourist Arrivals (December)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Singapore Business Confidence Q4/ SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (January)

·       EARNINGS: Central Japan Railway, East Japan Railway

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Oslo Security Conference is held through February 3rd in Oslo, Norway.

·       French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu will face his third and last set of no-confidence votes in the National Assembly over his decision to pass the 2026 budget without a parliamentary vote.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Competitiveness Ministers (Internal Market and Industry), through February 3rd in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden gives a speech entitled “Talking ‘bout Next Generation” at the City & Financial Payments Regulation and Innovation Summit 2026 in London.

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Germany Retail Sales (December)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (December)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January)/ New Car Sales (January)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ BoE Breeden Speech/ BoE Jackson Speech/ Nationwide Housing Prices (January)

·       Serbia GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       EARNINGS: Julius Baer

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Saudi Capital Markets Forum begins in New York and runs through February 3rd.  The country formally is opening its markets to foreign investors today.

·       The Rafah border crossing between Egypt and Gaza is scheduled to open.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Africa Data Centres Association hosts a conference on cloud and data centers in Tunis through February 3rd.

·        

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (January)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (January)/ M2 Money Supply (December)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (December)

Tuesday, February 3, 2026

Global

·       The World Governments Summit begins in Dubai and runs through February 5th.  International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva is among the speakers.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Colombian President Gustavo Petro is expected to meet with President Donald Trump in Washington, D.C.

·       Netflix Inc. Co-Chief Executive Officer Ted Sarandos will testify before the US Senate’s antitrust subcommittee on Tuesday, taking the stage to assuage politicians’ concern about his company’s $82.7 billion deal for Warner Bros. and HBO.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks before the SC First Steps “Early Advantage: Foundations for South Carolina's Economic Vitality" event.

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman takes part in a moderated conversation at the WSJ Invest Live event in New York

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (January)/ BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ Industrial Production (December)

·       USA LMI Logistics Managers Index (January)/Redbook (January/31)/ JOLTs Job Openings (December)/ JOLTs Job Quits (December)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (February)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/30)

·       Mexico Business Confidence (January)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Colombia Exports (December)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (January)

·       EARNINGS: Amgen, Emerson Electric, Clorox, PepsiCo, Paypal, Pfizer, Prudential Financial, Willis Towers Watson, LATAM Airlines, Merck

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Singapore Airshow begins and runs through Sunday.  More than 1000 aerospace and defense companies from 50 countries will participate.

·       The Chinese Communist Party and Taiwan's Kuomintang party will recommence party-to-party talks, suspended in 2016, in China through February 4th.

·       The Indonesia Economic Summit, hosted by the Indonesia Business Council, holds a two-day annual event in Jakarta, inviting global business leaders and policymakers to discuss industry challenges for the development of Southeast Asia's largest economy.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Building Permits (December)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (February/03)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (January)

·       Japan Monetary Base

·       The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Interest Rates and holds Press Conference/Australia Building Permits (December)/ Private House Approvals (December)

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (December)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (January)/ Wholesale Prices (January)

·       India RBI Market Borrowing Auctions

·       EARNINGS: Nintendo, West Japan Railway, Mitsubishi Electronic

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal video conference among EU Housing Ministers.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner gives a keynote speech at the Afore Consulting 10th Annual FinTech and Regulation Conference in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Romania PPI (December)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (January)/ PPI (January)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       France Inflation Rate (January)/ Budget Balance (December)/ New Car Registrations (January)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (January)/ Tourist Arrivals (December)

·       Italy New Car Registrations (January)

·       EARNINGS: Publicis Groupe

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (January)

·       Jordan PPI (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Mozambican Heroes Day, a national holiday.

·       Solar energy executives gather in Nairobi for the Intersolar Africa business summit.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (January)

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (January)

Wednesday, February 4, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosts a Critical Minerals Ministerial in Washington DC with multiple foreign ministers attending.  The State Department is circulating a draft Critical Minerals and Rare Earth Framework for attending countries to sign.

·       Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will testify  before the House Financial Services Committee to present “The Financial Stability Oversight Council’s Annual Report to Congress.”

·       The New START Treaty expires.  The US and Russia treaty helped restrict the proliferation of nuclear weapons.

·       “The Muppet Show” returns being shown on ABC and Disney+. American culture is saved.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech on monetary policy and the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Miami, Miami, Florida.

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/30)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/30)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (January/30)/ MBA Purchase Index (January/30)/ ADP Employment Change (January)/ Treasury Refunding Announcement/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)/ ISM Services PMI (January)/ ISM Services Business Activity (January)/ ISM Services Employment (January)/ ISM Services New Orders (January)/ ISM Services Prices (January)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (January/30)/ Total Vehicle Sales (January)

·       Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (January)

·       Colombia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       EARNINGS: Alphabet, Boston Scientific, Eli Lilly, Fox Corp, Johnson Controls McKesson, Stanley Black & Decker, Qualcomm, T Rowe Price, Uber

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Brad Jones holds a fireside chat at the Investment Magazine 2026 Chair Forum.

·       New Zealand Employment Change Q4/ Unemployment Rate Q4/ Labour Costs Index Q4/ Participation Rate Q4

·       Australia Ai Group Industry Index (January)/ Ai Group Construction Index (January)/ Ai Group Manufacturing Index (January)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)/ RBA Jones Speech

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (January)

·       Japan S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (January)

·       China RatingDog Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (January)/ M3 Money Supply (January/23)

·       EARNINGS: Sumitomo, Panasonic

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde participates in an informal dinner and exchange of views with Maroš Šefčovič, Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security as well as Interinstitutional Relations and Transparency, in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       France HCOB Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ CPI Flash (January)/ PPI (December)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (December)

·       Great Britain DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (January)/ DMP 3M Output Price Expectations (January)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (February)

·       EARNINGS: UBS, Credit Agricole, Handelsbanken, Santander, Watches of Switzerland

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       There is nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (January)

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Angola Liberation Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (January)

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Thursday, February 5, 2026

Global

·       Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (January)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will testify  before the Senate Banking Committee to present “The Financial Stability Oversight Council’s Annual Report to Congress.”

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in moderated conversation and Q&A on monetary policy and navigating the economic environment after graduation at event hosted by the Clark Atlanta University School of Business.

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks in Toronto.

·       Mexican Central Bank Interest Rate Decision/Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (November)

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (January)/ Initial Jobless Claims (January/31)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (January/30)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (February/05)/ Fed Balance Sheet (February/04)

·       Brazil Balance of Trade (January)

·       Colombia PPI (January)

·       Costa Rica Unemployment Rate Q4

·       EARNINGS: Amazon, Allstate, Bristol Myers Squibb, Cardinal Health, Cigna, Compass, ConocoPhillips, KKR, Hershey, MetLife, News Corp, Thomson Reuter

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Malaysia Economic Forum begins in Kuala Lumpur. The forum will feature Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, Siri founder and former Chief Technology Officer Tom Gruber, and senior figures from the private sector, including banking and capital market leaders. 

·       The ASEAN Treasury Forum takes place in Manila, Philippines through February 6th.

·       The 17th East Asia Conference on Competition Law and Policy, a two-day event hosted by Asian Development Bank Institute, begins in Tokyo.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (January/31)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (January/31)

·       Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (January)

·       Indonesia Full Year GDP Growth 2025/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Singapore Retail Sales (December)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (January)

·       EARNINGS: Nippon Steel, Suzuki, Motor, Sony

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be in informal meeting of EU Environmental Ministers through February 6th in Brussels.

·       Today is Liberation Day San Marino.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision/ Marginal Lending Rate/ ECB Press Conference

·       Bank of England Interest Rate Decision

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (January)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Germany Factory Orders (December)/ HCOB Construction PMI (January)

·       Romania Retail Sales (December)

·       Hungary Retail Sales (December)

·       France Industrial Production (December)/ HCOB Construction PMI (January)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (December)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (January)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (January)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (January)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (January)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/30)

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (January)

·       EARNINGS: BNP, Vodafone, BBVA, Maersk, Shell

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Burundi Unity Day, a national holiday.

·       The RiseUp Summit, focused on startups, meets at the Grand Egyptian Museum in Cairo

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Friday, February 6, 2026

Global

·       The 2026 Winter Olympics begin in Milan and Cortina d’Ampezzo, Italy and runs through February 22nd.

·       FAO Food Price Index (January)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US is tentatively scheduled to hold talks with Iranian officials in Istanbul on Iran’s nuclear program.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on the economic outlook and supply-side inflation dynamics at a conference entitled:  Supply-Side Factors and Inflation: What Have We Learned? Being hosted by The Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C.

·       Chile Inflation Rate (January)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (January)/ Employment Change (January)/ Participation Rate (January)/ Ivey PMI s.a (January)

·       USA Non-Farm Payrolls (January)/ Unemployment Rate (January)/ Average Hourly Earnings (January)/ Participation Rate (January)/ Government Payrolls (January)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (January)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (January)/ Used Car Prices (January)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (February)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (February)/ Michigan Current Conditions (February)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (February)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (February/06)/ Consumer Credit Change (December)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (January)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (December)

·       Colombia Cement Production (December)/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Kazuyuki Masu gives a speech before local leaders in Ehime, Japan.

·       South Korea Current Account (December)

·       Japan Household Spending (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)/ BoJ Masu Speech/ Coincident Index (December)/ Leading Economic Index (December)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (January)/ Foreign Direct Investment (January)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Retail Sales (January)/ Tourist Arrivals (January)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)/ Property Price Index Q4

·       India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ Bank Loan Growth (January/23)/ Deposit Growth (January/23)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/30)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Kazakhstan PPI (January)

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (January)

·       EARNINGS: Toyota

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Vice President Piero Cipollone gives a speech on the digital euro at an event organized by MEP Michalis Hadjipantela in Cyprus.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council Member ECB Martin Kocher speaks at the Club of Business Journalists in Vienna, Austria.

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks at the National MC Agency Briefing.

·       Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech/ ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ New Car Registrations (January)

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (January)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (January)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (December)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Current Account (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (December)

·       Spain Industrial Production (December)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (December)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)/ GDP (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Real Wage Growth (November)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (January)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       EARNINGS: Societe Generale, Skanska

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Saturday, February 7, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 8, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NASA may launch a three American astronauts and a Canadian from the Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida.  This would be the first crewed lunar voyage in over 50 years. The 10-day flight around the moon and back will mark the second mission of Artemis, the successor to the Apollo programmed the cold war era. A moon landing is the goal of the next Artemis mission

·       Super Bowl LX will be played in Santa Clara, California.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan holds lower house elections.  Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called for snap elections to solidify her party’s position.  More than 1,200 candidates are competing for 465 seats.

·       Thailand holds general elections for its 500 seat lower house. This is the first election since 2023.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Portugal holds second round election votes for president.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the IMF/Saudi Ministry of Finance 2nd AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies in Saudi Arabia.  

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The World Defense Show begins in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia through February 12th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

FSOC Presents Its Annual Report to Congress, What Sort of Government Shutdown Will We Get?, Federal and State Regulators Battle Over Real Estate Escrow Accounts

February 2 - 6, 2026

 Washington is still buried under frozen snow – known here as “snowcrete” because it is like chiseling concrete to clear it away.  A number of schools remain closed (having been closed all last week, too), but the wheels of Congress and regulators continue to turn.

The big event of the week will be Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testifying before the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee to present the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) 's annual report.  

Both hearings look to be pretty wide open in terms of issues to discussed but we suspect a heavy focus of questioning will be on the Trump Administration’s evisceration of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) and what the Administration intends to do with it going forward along with reform of the Federal Reserve (now that President Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh to be the next chair and Bessent has repeatedly said the Fed needs to reformed), and the future bank regulatory framework.

Looking at last week, we noted an unusual fight emerging between federal and state regulators over real estate escrow accounts.   The fight comes at a sensitive time, as the cost of buying a new home has emerged as a serious political issue in this year’s midterm elections.  The disagreement revolves around the interest paid on escrow accounts used by mortgage holders to pay expenses such as taxes and insurance.  More than a dozen states require banks pay interest on escrow accounts.  

However, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) recently proposed a rule that would allow nationally chartered banks under its supervision to pay no interest and charge fees to escrow account holders. 

Elsewhere, we continue to track legislation introduced by Senators Roger Marshall (R-KS) and Dick Durbin (D-IL) to crack down on credit card swipe fees.  Despite President Trump’s endorsement, we are seeing little progress in the Senate for the legislation and little appetite among senators to get in the middle of this long and messy fight. 

Finally, Congress is in another shutdown, which they hope to fix either today or Tuesday, when the House votes on a continuing resolution to keep the government funded.  A deal was struck last week, but not in time for the House to vote on it.  But in our view, this might have become more complicated over the weekend, when Democrats won the traditionally Democratic 18th district in a special election to replace the recently deceased Representative Sylvester Turner (D-TX).  

While it was not a surprising outcome, it means Republicans now have a one-seat majority in the House.  For House Speaker Michael Johnson (R-LA), his life has become considerably more difficult because the odds of one Republican defecting to strike some sort of deal over something complete.  So, brace for more drama in the House this week – and the rest of the year as this number is going to go back and forth from a one seat to two seat majority numerous times.

Below is the full report on financial regulatory-related events this week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

 U.S. Senate

·       Tuesday, February 3, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing entitled “The Truth Revealed: Hidden Facts Regarding Nazis and Swiss Banks."  Testifying will be:

• Neil Barofsky, Independent ombudsperson and partner at Jenner & Block LLP, New York, N.Y.

• Barbara Levi, Group general counsel for UBS Group AG and member of the Group Executive Board of UBS Group AG, Zurich, Switzerland

• Rabbi Abraham Cooper, Associate dean and director of global social action at the Simon Wiesenthal Center, Los Angeles, Calif.

• Robert Karofsky, Co-president for Global Wealth Management, president of UBS Americas and member of the Group Executive Board of UBS Group AG, New York, N.Y.

·       Tuesday, February 3, 2:30 p.m. – The Senate Judiciary Committee’s Subcommittee on Antitrust, Competition Policy, and Consumer Rights holds a hearings entitled “Examining the Competitive Impact of the Proposed Netflix-Warner Brothers Transaction.” 

·       Thursday, February 5, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing entitled “The Financial Stability Oversight Council’s Annual Report to Congress.”  Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will testify.

House of Representatives

·       Wednesday, February 4, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Service Committee will hold a hearing on the Annual Report of the Financial Stability Oversight Council.  Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will testify.  You can find the Committee’s Memorandum on the hearing HERE.

·       Wednesday, February 4, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Capital Markets will hold a hearing entitled “A New Day at the SEC: Restoring Accountability, Due Process, and Public Confidence.”

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency

Meetings & Events

The White House

·       Monday, February 2, Time TBD – The White House is expected to host a summit with executives from the banking and cryptocurrency industries to discuss a path forward for landmark crypto legislation currently working its way through the Senate.  

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

·       Monday, February 2, 12:30 p.m. – Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in moderated conversation on monetary policy before the Atlanta Rotary Club.

·       Tuesday, February 3, 8:00 a.m. – Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks before the SC First Steps “Early Advantage: Foundations for South Carolina's Economic Vitality" event.

·       Wednesday, February 4, 6:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech on monetary policy and the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Miami, Miami, Florida.

· Thursday, February 5, 10:50 a.m. – Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in a moderated conversation and Q&A on monetary policy and navigating the economic environment after graduation at an event hosted by the Clark Atlanta University School of Business.

·       Thursday, February 5, 12:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on the economic outlook and supply-side inflation dynamics at a conference entitled:  Supply-Side Factors and Inflation: What Have We Learned? Being hosted by The Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C.

U.S. Treasury Department

·       Nothing significant to report.

Department of Commerce

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

·       Nothing significant to report.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

·       Nothing significant to report.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

·       Nothing significant to report.

Think Tanks and Other Events

·       Nothing significant to report.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Weekend Reads

Mexico – US Relations Get More Tense, Russia Hitting a Critical Inflection Point Internally, How American First Investment Pledges Are Structured – But Will It Work? , And the Impact of Inflation on Fertility

January 30 - February 1, 2026

Below are several reports and articles we read this past week that we found particularly interesting.  Hopefully,  you will find them of interest and useful as well.  Have a great weekend.

Americas

• ‘What the hell do we do with this issue’:  Mexico confronts Trump’s Cuba pressure   Politico

  President Donald Trump’s increasingly overt attempts to bring down the Cuban government are forcing Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum into a delicate diplomatic dance. Mexico is the U.S.’s largest trading partner. It is also the primary supplier of oil to Cuba since the U.S. seized control of Venezuela’s crude. Now, Sheinbaum must manage her relationship with a mercurial Trump, who has at times both praised her leadership and threatened to send the U.S. military into her country to combat drug trafficking — all while appeasing her left-wing party Morena, factions of which have historically aligned themselves with Cuba’s communist regime.

• Washington’s Sharpening Stance on Mexico   Americas Quarterly

  There is a deep shift underway in Washington—one that redefines Mexican organized crime not primarily as a law-enforcement problem or a bilateral cooperation challenge, but as a direct national security threat to the U.S. That redefinition is already reshaping U.S. policy tools, institutions, and expectations vis-à-vis Mexico, with potentially profound consequences for the bilateral relationship.

• Can anything halt Latin America’s lurch to the right?     Financial Times

  “It’s because of the expansion of the major criminal markets in the region,” says Council on Foreign Relations Fellow Will Freeman. “The huge increase in the size of the cocaine trade, the boom in illegal gold mining, for a time, the wave of human smuggling, and the way that has seeded a lot of new gangs and criminal outfits in different parts of the region that didn’t previously have to deal with this.” The dramatic capture of Venezuela’s authoritarian president, Nicolás Maduro, by US commandos in the early hours of January 3 has, if anything, reinforced the swing to the right in most of the region, pollsters say.

Is Russia at a Critical Inflection Point?

• Russia’s Grinding War in Ukraine   Center for Strategic and International Studies

  Despite claims of battlefield momentum in Ukraine, the data show that Russia is paying an extraordinary price for minimal gains and is in decline as a major power. Since February 2022, Russian forces have suffered nearly 1.2 million casualties, more losses than any major power in any war since World War II. At current rates, combined Russian and Ukrainian casualties could reach 2 million by the spring of 2026. After seizing the initiative in 2024, Russian forces have advanced at an average rate of 15-70 meters per day in their most prominent offensives, slower than almost any major offensive campaign in the last century. Meanwhile, Russia’s war economy is under mounting strain, with manufacturing declining, growth slowing to 0.6 percent in 2025, and no globally competitive technology firms to drive long-term productivity.

•  Russian Economy’s “Unholy Trinity”: Recession, Inflation, Budgetary Crisis  Free Russia

  The Russian economic situation has reached a breaking point in 2026, facing the “unholy trinity” of challenges:

  • The ongoing budget crisis, which is set to exacerbate in 2026 due to a shortfall of oil and gas export revenues as well as under-collection of domestic taxes due to cooling of the Russian economy;

  • High inflation, which has not been brought under control - contrary to widespread public misconception, and which still requires maintaining prohibitively high interest rates thus diminishing Russians’ real incomes;

  • A looming recession, which seems inevitable given the lack of sources of potential major economic revival (no fiscal stimulus, an inability to access international investment and financial markets, expensive credit, shrinking corporate profits, etc.).

Geoeconomics 

• The America First investment pledges: How are they structured and are they realistic?   The Peterson Institute for International Economics

  In pursuit of President Donald J. Trump's "America First" agenda, the administration has pressured allies and partners to invest in US industrial and infrastructure projects. The White House has announced commitments by the European Union, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, several Gulf Cooperation Council countries, and others, to import specific amounts of goods and services from the United States and to make sizable investments on US soil. These agreements resulted from a more coercive US foreign policy than in the past. Because the administration is helping select the targets of foreign investment, it is embarking on a major expansion of US industrial policy—one paid for by allied countries. This Policy Brief shows that much about investment pledges, worth more than $5 trillion, remains unclear or aspirational. 

• Making Industrial Strategy Great Again   Foreign Affairs

  The author argues that the Trump administration has embraced industrial policy in all the wrong ways. Instead of organizing policy around missions—explicit public goals that define the problem to be solved and the outcomes to be delivered—and then aligning the state’s tools to get there, it has treated industrial policy as a set of sector deals to be cut and announced. It has stripped away conditions on government support for private industry that could ensure the socialization of rewards. The government has taken a ten percent stake in the semiconductor manufacturer Intel for $5.7 billion in CHIPS Act funding; a 15 percent stake in the rare-earth mining and processing company MP Materials for a $400 million investment; a five percent stake in Lithium Americas, the company developing the Thacker Pass lithium project in Nevada, through loan restructuring; and a “golden share” in U.S. Steel, granting the government permanent veto power over headquarters relocation and production offshoring. But it is using these unprecedented equity stakes not to steer strategy or secure public value but to extract value retroactively.  Industrial policy will fail, economically and politically, unless it is organized around clear missions to create public value. When the state socializes risks through public funding, the public must share in the rewards.
  

• Economic Statecraft Is Back.  Is America Ready?   War on the Rocks

  America still has enormous economic leverage. What it lacks is a plan. A new War on the Rocks series, launched with the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies, explores how economic statecraft should be organized, led, and integrated into defense planning.

• Inflation and Fertility in the United States    Institute for Family Studies

  Over the past several years, American households have experienced one of the sharpest increases in the cost of living in decades. Rising prices for housing, childcare, healthcare, and education have coincided with heightened economic uncertainty following the COVID-19 pandemic. At the same time, U.S. fertility rates have continued their long-run decline, prompting renewed debate about whether economic pressures are reshaping family formation decisions. While discussions often focus on cultural change or shifting preferences, the affordability of raising children in an era of elevated and unpredictable prices may be an underappreciated part of the story.

The Global Week Ahead

The EU and India Close In On A Free Trade Deal, UK Prime Minister Travels to China and Japan, the US Congress Races to Avoid Another Shutdown, and a Big Week for Earnings and Interest Rates

January 26 - February 1, 2026

Our apologies for the late publishing of the Global Week Ahead – we are digging out from a massive snow and ice storm here in Washington, D.C.  And ee hope you had time to catch your breath after the breakneck pace of events last week in Davos. The geopolitical pace will be a bit slower, but several momentous events are happening this week.  

First, it appears the EU and India are very close to finalizing a landmark free trade deal. European Council President Antonio Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen are traveling to New Delhi this week to co-chair the EU-India Summit with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, where they are expected to sign the deal.   This is likely to be a big deal for the European automotive, aircraft, chemical, and machinery sectors amid ongoing trade tensions with the US and China.  

Also in Asia this week, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will be traveling to Beijing and then Tokyo for bilateral meetings.  His China trip is the first visit by a UK Prime Minister in eight years and will re-establish the UK-China Business Dialogue, offering new opportunities for UK business that have been hampered by both trade spats and security concerns.  Starmer’s trip to Japan will also likely create major new business opportunities for UK businesses.

Here in the United States, markets are very closely watching two possible big events this week: President Trump is likely to announce his nominee for chair of the Federal Reserve Board, while the US Supreme Court may hand down its decision on President Trump’s “Liberation Day” trade regime.  

Prediction markets heated up late last week on the idea that BlackRock Chief Investment Officer Rick Rieder would be the Fed nominee.  As of now, the nominee pool seems to be Reider, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, and possibly Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (despite repeated denials from the White House and Bessent – our long-shot bet still is Bessent being the nominee).  

While the Supreme Court is not formally scheduled to release any decisions this week (other than those released this morning – which did not include the trade case), they may break precedent and release it before their next scheduled decision release date of February 20th.  

Also in Washington this week, Congress is once again locked in a fight over funding the federal government and faces a possible shutdown at midnight Friday.   The latest tension point was not over actual budget funding disputes but over the Trump Administration’s ongoing U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids in Minneapolis, which resulted in the tragic shooting of a protester this past weekend.  Senate Democrats said they will not move on the Department of Homeland Security funding bill (ICE is a bureau of Homeland Security).  With a major snowstorm shutting down Washington on Monday and likely Tuesday, too, Congress will be working on a very tight timeline to avoid a shutdown.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, it is a big week for central banks and corporate earnings. 

The US Federal Reserve meets this week to discuss interest rates, and market consensus is that there will be no new rate cuts.  The Reserve Bank of Canada will also meet this week, and market consensus expects it to hold off on any new cuts.  Elsewhere in the Western Hemisphere, the Central Bank of Brazil and the Central Bank of Chile will meet this week to discuss interest rates (both are expected to hold).

In the US, the major economic reports out this week include durable goods orders on Monday, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence on Tuesday, and delayed PPI reports for November and December on Friday.  It is also a big week for corporate earnings in the US this week with four of the seven “Magnificent Seven” reporting (Meta, Microsoft, Tesla, and Apple) plus Exxon, Boeing, UPS, RTX, American Airlines, Northrop Gruman, Kimberly-Clark, United Health Group, General Motors, and Texas Instruments.    

We will be listening closely the both VISA and Mastercard’s earning call for reactions to President Trump’s recent demand to cap credit card interest rates at 10% (which banks issuing cards seem to have largely ignored or are considering the creation of a product line -  as both Citi and Bank of America are considering offering new cards capped at 10% for a year).

In Europe this week, the European Central Bank enters its quiet period ahead of its interest rate decisions on February 4th and 5th.  The major economic releases include the European Central Bank’s monthly consumer expectations on Friday, Germany’s  Ifo survey on Monday, consumer confidence on Wednesday, and CPIs on Friday.  Additionally, Germany, France, Italy, and the UK will be reporting GDP this week. 

In Asia, Japan will have a busy Thursday with the release of the consumer confidence, retail sales, industrial production, and Tokyo CPI reports.  China will be releasing industrial profit figures on Tuesday.  

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Monday, January 26, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the promotion and strengthening of the rule of law in the maintenance of international peace and security: Reaffirming international rule of law: Pathways to reinvigorating peace, justice and multilateralism.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby will visit South Korea through January 27th.  He will then travel to Japan for consultation meetings. Colby was a major contributor to the recently released US National Defense Strategy 2026.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (January)/ Current Account (December)/ Foreign Direct Investment (December)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (December)

·       USA Durable Goods Orders (November)/ Chicago Fed National Activity Index (November)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (January)

·       EARNINGS: NUCOR, Crane

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Japan, Leaders of the respective political parties will hold their first debate ahead of the February 8th  lower house election. The following day, official campaigning begins for the 465 seats up for grabs.

·       The Asian Financial Forum begins in Hong Kong.   Business and government leaders from across the region and the Middle East gather to discuss the global economy, network, and strike deals. Tariffs, artificial intelligence, and geopolitical friction will provide plenty of fodder over the two days.

· Today is India's Republic Day, celebrating the country's gaining independence from Great Britain in 1947.  Financial markets are closed.

·       Today is Australia Day, celebrating the arrival of Great Britain’s First Fleet in 1788 on the continent.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Coincident Index (November)/ Leading Economic Index (November)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (December)

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The North Sea Summit will be held in Hamburg, Germany.  The Hamburg Declaration will be signed by ten European leaders pledging to build 100-gigawatt joint offshore wind projects (which roughly equals all energy produced by the UK).

·       The EU holds its 26th Accession Conference with Montenegro.

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels.

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.

·       The European Parliament is expected to review its decision to freeze the ratification of the EU-U.S. tariff framework agreement, which was suspended following U.S. threats over Greenland.

·       NATO Secretary General, Mr. Mark Rutte, will address the European Parliament´s Committee on Foreign Affairs (AFET) and Committee on Security and Defence (SEDE) in Brussels

·       The Paris Haute Couture Fashion Week begins. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank  Governing Council member Joachim Nagel gives a speech on the “Outlook for 2026 in the light of multifaceted challenges worldwide” in Berlin, Germany.   Later, he discusses monetary policy before the German parliament.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Martin Kocher speaks at the OMFIF roundtable on monetary policy in London.

·       Spain PPI (December)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (January)/ Ifo Current Conditions (January)/ Ifo Expectations (January)

·       Poland Retail Sales (December)/ M3 Money Supply (December)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (January)

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (January)

·       EARNINGS: Ryanair

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Dubai will host the  Invest Africa New Year Reception: Trade, Investment, and the UAE-Africa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, January 27, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the United Nations Mission to Support the Hudaydah Agreement (UNMHA).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will give a speech on the economy and energy in Iowa.

·       The US is expected to formally withdraw from the Paris Climate Change Agreement.

·       Honduras’ new president, Nasry Asfura, will take office.  Asfura is closely aligned with President Trump, who endorsed his candidacy.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (January)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (December)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (December)

·       USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Redbook (January/24)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (November)/ House Price Index (November)/ CB Consumer Confidence (January)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (January)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (January)/ Money Supply (December)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (December)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/23)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (December)

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Boeing, UPS, RTX, American Airlines, Northrop Grumman, Kimberly-Clark, United Health Group, General Motors, Texas Instruments, PPG

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (January)

·       Australia NAB Business Confidence (December)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (December)

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (December)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events

·       The EU – India Summit takes place in New Delhi.  European Council President António Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. They are likely to sign a massive new bilateral trade deal. Additionally, they will discuss EU-India relations, Russia’s war on Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East, and the security situation in the Indo-Pacific.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give welcome remarks and a commemorative speech at the annual event marking International Holocaust Remembrance Day (IHRD) in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel joins panel on digital euro in Berlin, Germany.

·       Great Britain BRC Shop Price Inflation (January)

·       European Union New Car Registrations (December)

·       France Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Spain Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (January)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: LVMH

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (December)/ Private Bank Lending (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (November)

Wednesday, January 28, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold an open debate on the Middle East (the situation in Gaza).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Secretary of State Marco Rubio will testify before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on the Trump Administration’s recent actions in Venezuela.

·       The Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean (CAF) hosts the International Economic Forum Latin America and the Caribbean 2026 in Panama City, Panama through January 29th.  Brazilian President Luiz Inǎcio Lula Da Silva (Lula), Bolivian President Rodrigo Paz Pereira, Colombian President Gustavo Petro, Chilean President-elect José Antonio Kast, Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino, Guatemalan President Bernardo Arévalo, and Ecuadorian President Daniel Boboa will speak.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee finishes two days of meetings on the economy and interest rates, Fed Chair Jay Powell will hold a press conference at 2:00 p.m. EST

·       The Bank of Canada holds a meeting on interest rates followed by a press conference by BoC Governor Tiff Macklem.

·       Reserve Bank of Brazil Interest Rate Decision

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/23)/ MBA Purchase Index (January/23)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (January/23)/

·       Colombia Business Confidence (December)

·       EARNINGS: Meta, Microsoft, Tesla, ASML Holding, AT&T, GE Verona, Corning, General Dynamics, Starbucks, VF Corporation, Progressive, ADP, IBM, Waste Management

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Indian Air Show begins in Hyderabad.  This is India’s largest air show, and India is the world’s third-largest aviation market. The country is expanding the number of airports they have now (160) to 350 by 2047.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of Japan releases its Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.

·       Australia Inflation Rate (December)/ Quarterly RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q4/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (December)/ CPI (December)/ RBA Weighted Median CPI (December)           

·       Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

·       Malaysia PPI (December)

·       India Industrial Production (December)/ Manufacturing Production (December)/ M3 Money Supply (January/09)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Frank Elderson will give an introductory statement at the appointment hearing at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will give a presentation at the 4th Women’s Network Meeting of the Baden-Baden Entrepreneur Talks (BBUG) in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence FEB

·       Italy Business Confidence (January)/ Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (January)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (December)/ PPI (December)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (December)

·       Russia PPI (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Interest Rate Decision

·       Ghana Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, January 29, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council will have closed consultations on the United Nations Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA). In the afternoon, it is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) and another one on the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canada’s Conservative National Convention begins in Calgary and runs through January 31st.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Bank Lending (December)

·       Canada Balance of Trade (November)/ Average Weekly Earnings (November)/ Imports (November)/ Exports (November)

·       USA Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Initial Jobless Claims (January/24)/ Nonfarm Productivity Q3/ Unit Labour Costs Q3/ Factory Orders (November)/ Wholesale Inventories (November)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (January/23)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/29)/ Fed Balance Sheet (January/28)

·       EARNINGS: Mastercard, Caterpillar, Nokia, Altria, Nasdaq, Royal Caribbean Group, Blackstone, Lockheed Martin, Apple, SanDisk, VISA

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is scheduled to travel to China, the first time a UK prime minister has traveled to China in eight years.  He will meet with President Xi Jinping to discuss a multitude of trade issues.

·       ASEAN's foreign ministers will gather in Manila,  the Philippines, to discuss regional issues, including ongoing South China Sea negotiations, the Thailand-Cambodia border crisis, and the political chaos in Myanmar.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ ANZ Business Confidence (January)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (January/24)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (January/24)/ Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Singapore Monetary Policy Statement/ Import Prices (December)/ Export Prices (December)/ PPI (December)

·       Australia Import Prices Q4/ Export Prices Q4

·       Philippines Full Year GDP Growth 2026/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Education Ministers in Brussels through January 30th.

·       The EU-Morocco Association Council meets in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Vice President Piero Cipollon will participate in a virtual conversation at the New Year's Forum in Rome, Italy.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery will participate in a fireside chat at the House of the Euro event on simplification in Brussels, Belgium.

·       The European Central Bank enters its quiet period before the February 4-5 interest rate meetings.

·       Great Britain Car Production (December)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (December)

·       Turkey Unemployment Rate (December)/ Economic Confidence Index (January)/ Participation Rate (December)/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/23)

·       Hungary PPI (December)/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (January)/ Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Spain Retail Sales (December)/ Business Confidence (January)

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies (December)/ Loans to Households (December)/ M3 Money Supply (December)/ Economic Sentiment (January)/ Consumer Confidence (January)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (January)/ Industrial Sentiment (January)/ Selling Price Expectations (January)/ Services Sentiment (January)

·       Greece PPI (December)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Total Credit (December)

·       Italy Industrial Sales (November)

·       France Unemployment Benefit Claims (December)/ Jobseekers Total (December)

·       Ireland GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (September, October, & November)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (December)

·       EARNINGS: SAP, Sanofi, Eurofins, Remy Cointreau

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (December)/ Private Bank Lending (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (December)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

Friday, January 30, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Funding for the US federal government is set to expire at midnight unless Congress comes up with an agreement to continue funding.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will give a speech on monetary policy, supervision, and regulation, at the  SW Graduate School of Banking at SMU Cox: 161st Assembly for Bank Directors (Virtual)

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy and participates in a moderated discussion before the University of Arkansas Center for Business and Economic Research 32nd Annual Business Forecast Luncheon.

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (January)/ Gross Debt to GDP (December)/ Nominal Budget Balance (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Net Payrolls (December)

·       Chile Copper Production (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Manufacturing Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Mexico GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Fiscal Balance (December)

·       Canada GDP (November)/ Budget Balance (November)

·       USA PPI (December)/ Chicago PMI (January)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (January/30)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (December)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (December)

·       EARNINGS: Exxon, Chevron, SoFi, Verizon, American Express, Charter Communications

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (January)

·       South Korea Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (December)/ Jobs/applications ratio (December)/ Tokyo CPI (January)/ Retail Sales (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Housing Starts (December)/ Construction Orders (December)

·       Australia PPI Q4/ Housing Credit (December)/ Private Sector Credit (December)

·       Philippines PPI (December)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (December)/ Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (December)

·       Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (January)/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       India Government Budget Value (December)/ Bank Loan Growth (January/09)/ Deposit Growth (January/09)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/23)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado will give a keynote speech at the Forum on Saving Investments Union, organized by PSO Knowledge and Portugal Fintech in Lisbon, Portugal.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will give remarks at the Dreier-Club Abend event in Essen, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Boris Vujcic speaks at a state conference on Croatia and OECD.

·       France GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Household Consumption (December)/ PPI (December)/ Private Non-Farm Payrolls Q4

·       Germany Import Prices (December)/ Unemployment Change (January)/ Unemployment Rate (January)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (January)/ Bavaria CPI (January)/ Brandenburg CPI (January)/ Hesse CPI (January)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (January)/ Saxony CPI (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       Romania Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Tourism Revenues Q4/ Tourist Arrivals (December)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (January)/ BoE Consumer Credit (December)/ Mortgage Approvals (December)/ Mortgage Lending (December)/ M4 Money Supply (December)/ Net Lending to Individuals (December)

·       Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Current Account (November)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Italy GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ PPI (December)

·       Poland Full Year GDP Growth 2026/ Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (January)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Ukraine Current Account (December)

·       Slovenia Unemployment Rate (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (December)/ Private Sector Credit (December)/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Budget Balance (December)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (January)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (January)

Saturday, January 31, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is technically the end of Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen Miran’s term on the Fed Board, but he can continue to hold the seat for another year or until President Trump nominates someone to replace him.

·       Texas holds a special election to fill the seat for the 18th congressional district, which became vacant when Congressman Sylvester Turner (D) passed away in March 2025.  The district is considered a safe Democratic seat.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer will visit Japan for talks with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, in the first such visit by a British leader in three years. Starmer is reportedly due to travel to China with a British business delegation beforehand. Tokyo is hoping to coordinate its position on China with London.

·       Today is Nauru Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China NBS Manufacturing PMI (January)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (January)/ NBS General PMI (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 1, 2026

Global

·       The OPEC+ monthly meeting will be held virtually.

·       The UK assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of February.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Costa Rica holds presidential and parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi presents the country's annual budget for the fiscal year starting in April, with the focus likely to be on fields such as infrastructure development, green energy, and steps to boost export competitiveness amid U.S. President Donald Trump's punishing 50% tariffs on Indian goods.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       India Union Budget 2026

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Recommended Weekend Reads

How Maduro’s Capture Puts Cuba at an Inflection Point, Mexico’s Morena Party is Floundering, The Iranian Regime Will Break – Then What Happens?, and the Geography of Science  

January 23 - 25, 2026

Below are a number of reports and articles we read this past week and found particularly interesting.  Hopefully, you will find them interesting and useful as well.  Have a great weekend. 

The Americas

• The Geopolitics of Maduro’s Capture: Cuba’s Inflection Point   Christopher Hernandez-Roy/Center for Strategic and International Studies

  The release of the US 2025 National Security Strategy that declared a “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine, along with the early January U.S. military action in Venezuela, is altering political calculations across the Western Hemisphere, with deep implications for Cuba. The January 3, 2026, military operation to capture Nicolás Maduro and bring him to the United States to face terrorism charges, and the subsequent coercive management of the remaining Chavista regime, is a signal to the region that challenges long-standing assumptions about U.S. restraint, regime durability, change, and the use of external pressure in Latin America. Rather than pursuing traditional regime change centered on rapid democratization or wholesale dismantling of authoritarian systems, the United States has demonstrated a willingness to employ coercive power to manage regimes—controlling their behavior, extracting concessions, and preserving sufficient institutional continuity to avoid collapse.

• Mexico’s mighty left-wing government is floundering    The Economist

  Mexico’s Morena Party has no serious rivals in Mexico. The party has dominated Mexican politics. Together with its allies, it controls 24 of Mexico’s 32 states. It holds supermajorities in both legislative houses, more than two-thirds of the seats in each. It draws comparisons with the Institutional Revolutionary Party that ruled Mexico as a one-party state for seven decades until 2000.  But under Morena, Mexico has no money. Its economic growth has long lagged behind that of its neighbors in Latin America and comparable emerging economies in Asia, but the Morena years have been the most sluggish in a quarter-century. The IMF thinks the economy will grow by 1.5% in 2026, about half the Latin American average. Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum’s Plan México, a flagship development strategy, is faltering: in 2025, investment reached 22% of GDP, short of the 25% target. With weak growth and little sign of a turnaround, few believe the government can maintain expansive welfare payments until the end of her term, in 2030.

• Sheinbaum’s Cuba policy is testing Washington’s patience     Washington Post

  At a moment of extraordinary tension in the U.S.-Mexico relationship, the Mexican government is choosing to remain Cuba’s oil lifeline. For decades, Venezuela filled that role, sending up to 100,000 barrels of oil per day at the height of Hugo Chávez’s rule. In recent years, as Venezuela’s oil output faltered, Mexico has stepped up. According to industry data, it became the top supplier of oil to Cuba last year — well before the ouster of Nicolás Maduro.  While the Trump administration has not publicly detailed its full strategy toward Cuba, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has signaled that the U.S. intends to bypass the Cuban government and direct assistance toward the Cuban people. Some members of Congress say Mexico’s approach points in the opposite direction.

• Delcy Rodríguez and the Architecture of Venezuela’s Kleptocracy    Felix Maradiaga Substack

  According to an investigative report recently written by “Transparency International Venezuela in Exile” under the title “Delcy Rodríguez se blindó para la era post Maduro,”  Acting Venezuelan President Delcy Rodríguez has been a central operating executive within the machinery that turned a nation’s wealth into private enrichment, political leverage, and international bargaining chips.  The report notes that the Venezuelan vice presidency under Rodríguez, she received a staggering share of the national budget—40% in 2024 and 44% in 2025—concentrating extraordinary spending discretion around Rodríguez’s office.

  
  The Iranian Uprising

• How the Iranian Regime Breaks        Foreign Affairs

  Over the last few weeks, the Iranian regime has faced remarkable challenges—and displayed remarkable unity. Hundreds of thousands of Iranians have taken to the streets to protest the Islamic Republic in what has become the most significant internal challenge the state has faced in its 47-year history. But the elite has not yet fractured. Instead of squabbling over how to handle the demonstrations, Iran’s reformist and hardline leaders have worked together to suppress them. To date, none of the regime’s elites objected to the killings of thousands of innocent civilians by security forces. In fact, figures from across the political spectrum have all outwardly (and falsely) blamed the violence on foreign infiltrators.  But behind the scenes, the picture is undoubtedly more tense. Unless they exclusively watch state television and believe their own false narratives, Iranian officials understand that the domestic system is under existential stress.

• Iran’s Uprising: What’s the endgame?     Brookings Institution Podcast

  In recent days, the Iranian regime has conducted an unprecedented and bloody crackdown on protests across Iran. In this episode, Brookings Fellow Aslı Aydıntaşbaş is joined by two Iran experts, vice president of Foreign Policy Suzanne Maloney and visiting fellow Mara Karlin, to discuss the unique nature of the protests and the regime’s violent response, options for U.S. military action, and President Trump’s possible endgame.

• Iran’s coming reckoning: Regime collapse is likely — democracy is not    Middle East Institute

  Since tens of thousands of Iranians took to the streets in protest and then experienced intense and gruesome repression by state security forces, the question is now: what next?   Much will depend on four factors: 1) Foreign intervention 2) The behavior of the opposition 3) Information control and connectivity, and 4) Elite dynamics within the regime itself.   But, as the author argues, the Islamic Republic as we know it cannot endure. However, its collapse or transformation does not guarantee liberation. What Iran is entering is not a revolution’s endgame but a dangerous interregnum — one in which brutality has proven effective, legitimacy has evaporated, and the future remains profoundly contested.  But, as the author makes clear, the Islamic Republic as we know it cannot endure.

  Geoeconomics

• The Hollow Dollar?    Alexander Evans/The British Academy & Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  Abstract: This paper explores whether the US dollar’s dominance in global finance – long a pillar of American geopolitical influence – is being quietly eroded. While the dollar remains the world’s primary reserve currency, its centrality in international payments is increasingly contested. The weaponization of the dollar, particularly through sanctions and the extraterritorial reach of the New York banking license, has prompted strategic responses from states such as China, Russia, and India. These strategic responses include the development of alternative payment systems, local currency trade settlements, and digital infrastructure. The paper argues that a ‘hollowing’ of the dollar’s infrastructural dominance is underway – (perhaps very) gradual, partial, but geopolitically significant. This shift may not end dollar supremacy, but it could fragment the global financial system, weaken US sanctions leverage, and diminish the centrality of New York and London as financial hubs. The implications for global order are subtle but potentially profound. A less dollar-dependent system may facilitate a more multipolar world yet diminish liberal democratic power.

• The Geography of Science    Abhishek Nagaraj & Randol Yao/

  Abstract: Science has long been concentrated in the Western world, but the global research landscape is undergoing a profound reorganization. Using data on 44 million publications from 1980 to 2022, we document the geography of science in terms of who produces it, what it studies, and where it diffuses. The share of publications produced in the United States has fallen from 40% in 1980 to 15% in 2022, while China’s share has risen from near-zero to 32%. This pattern extends even to elite outlets, with China now producing over 35% of top-journal publications. Notably, this is driven not only by an expanding researcher base but also—to a large extent—by increases in individual productivity. Similar to China, other middle- and low-income countries (including India, Russia, and Brazil) have also expanded output producing as much research as high-income European Union countries combined (about 21% overall), but they remain underrepresented in top-tier journals. Overall, our findings highlight both the democratization and fragmentation of global science, raising important questions about the future of the global scientific enterprise.

• The Macroeconomic Consequences of Capital Constraints   Office of Financial Research, US Treasury Department

  Abstract: This working paper quantifies the effect that regulatory capital requirements have on bank lending and real economic activity. Exploiting a change in capital requirements by the Federal Reserve at the onset of the pandemic recession, it establishes causally that looser requirements increased the ability for banks to extend credit to consumers. On average, banks that received relatively more balance sheet space from the policy change passed this along to their customers in the form of relatively higher credit limits from Q2 2020 to Q1 2021. This also led to relatively higher credit card borrowing among these customers. Using a general equilibrium quantitative model calibrated to match the empirical findings, the paper shows that absent the Federal Reserve policy change, consumption would have fallen by an extra 2.7% in the three years following the pandemic recession. Motivated by these estimates, this paper evaluates the efficacy of countercyclical capital requirements and finds that such policy could lower consumption volatility over the business cycle by as much as 12%.

• Macroeconomic Implications of Immigration Flows in 2025 and 2026: January 2026 Update  The Brookings Institution

  Abstract: The first year of the second Trump administration has seen dramatic changes in immigration policy, resulting in a sharp slowdown in net migration to the United States. Building on work released in late 2024 and mid-2025, we use available data combined with judgment to estimate a range of likely outcomes for net migration for the years 2025 and 2026. We conclude that net migration was likely close to zero or negative over calendar year 2025 for the first time in at least half a century.  Specifically, we estimate that net migration was between –295,000 and -10,000 for the year. For 2026, we project net migration is likely to remain in negative territory.  The downward pressure on population stemming from negative net migration has important implications for the macroeconomy. In recent years, growth in the U.S.-born working-age population has been weak, and nearly all growth in the labor force has stemmed from immigration flows.

The Global Week Ahead

US-EU Tensions Spike Over Trump’s Greenland Takeover Threat, The World Economic Forum begins in Davos, Vietnam Holds Party Congress, and the Bank of Japan Meets on Interest Rates

January 18 - 26, 2026

The coming week is going to be jam-packed with major geopolitical events, speeches, and meetings as President Trump ratchets up his threats over Greenland, a high-level Ukrainian delegation goes to Washington for talks, and the World Economic Forum gets underway in Davos, Switzerland. 

Markets will continue to struggle to understand what exactly is going on with President Trump’s growing demands and threats regarding control of Greenland.  The President sent a letter to the Norwegian Prime Minister, Jonas Gahr Støre, citing the Norwegian Nobel Committee's not awarding him the Nobel Peace Prize as a reason for his increasing pressure campaign for Denmark to sell Greenland to the United States. 

This came after Trump threatened to place 10 percent tariffs on eight countries (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland) that do not support Trump’s demands on Greenland. This has resulted in an emergency meeting of EU leaders to discuss how to respond, including a discussion of placing €93 billion in retaliatory tariffs on the US.

The dispute now appears headed to Davos, Switzerland, where the World Economic Forum (WEF) is being held this week.  President Trump, leading a group of more than 30 senior Administration officials, will speak at the Forum on Wednesday and is expected to further elaborate on the issue and discuss his domestic economic agenda to address ‘affordability.’

We expect Trump to meet with a number of European leaders in a bid to strike a deal on Greenland and potentially de-escalate the growing US-EU political crisis.

Also taking place will be sideline meetings between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European leaders, as well as President Trump, on important aspects of a potential peace plan, and on the development of a detailed rebuilding/recovery plan for Ukraine.  There were reports Monday that the Trump Administration had engaged BlackRock to help engineer an $800 billion “prosperity plan” for Ukraine.  We note that BlackRock CEO Larry Fink is one of the co-chairs of the World Economic Forum this year.

We are also aware that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is scheduled to host a dinner with corporate leaders and foreign finance ministers while in Davos to discuss ways to further investment both in Greenland and Venezuela.

Looking to Asia this coming week, Vietnam will be holding its 14th National Party Congress to elect the country's leadership and formalize major policy decisions for the 2026-2030 term. Markets will be watching closely, as those policy decisions are likely to lead to significant market reforms and growth projections that the government aims to achieve at 10 percent annually. 

Turning to the global economic and financial radar screen this week, aside from what is happening at the WEF, the big news will be what new inflation data is saying about the US (ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting the following week), the UK, Japan (where the Bank of Japan is meeting this week), and Canada.

In the US, PCE figures for October and November – delayed by the recent US federal government shutdown – will finally be released along with Q3 GDP on Thursday.   The University of Michigan consumer survey is out on Friday.  And in Canada, the CPI is out Tuesday along with the Bank of Canada Quarterly Survey.

In Europe, Germany, France, and the Eurozone are releasing January PMIs on Friday, while the UK releases employment figures on Tuesday, inflation data on Wednesday, and retail sales and PMIs on Friday.   

Moving over to Asis, the Bank of Japan meets this week with its interest rate decision announced on Friday.  This comes after the December CPI is released on Thursday.   Markets are also taking in China’s Q4 GDP (which was announced at 5% on Monday).

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, January 18, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will travel to Qatar to meet with leaders to discuss bilateral investments.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Portugal holds its presidential election. The president is elected for a five-year term with a two-term limit, has the discretionary power to dissolve parliament, and presides over the consultative Council of State.

·       Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visits South Korea.

·        

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein and his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi meet in Tehran.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, January 19, 2026

Global

·       The annual World Economic Forum begins in Davos, Switzerland and runs through January 23rd.  You can view the entire agenda HERE.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on ICC Sudan.

·       The IMF holds a World Economic Outlook update press briefing in Brussels.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Martin Luther King Day, a national holiday.  Financial markets and banks are closed as is the federal government.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Canada Inflation Rate (December)/ CPI Median (December)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (November)/ BoC Business Outlook Survey/ BoC Survey of Consumer Expectations

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will hold a media conference to give her views on the dissolution of the lower house and the holding of a snap election.

·       Vietnam's ruling Communist Party will kick off a congress where it will appoint the country's paramount leader -- the general secretary -- and other officials for five years. 

·       The 40th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence begins in Singapore and runs through January 27th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (December)

·       Japan Machinery Orders (November)/ Capacity Utilization (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Tertiary Industry Index (November)

·       Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (December)

·       China House Price Index (December)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (December)/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q4/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ FDI (YTD) (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Union leaders will hold an emergency meeting in the coming days to discuss President Donald Trump’s latest tariff threat as they explore possible retaliatory measures. The leaders plan to meet in person near the end of this week, according to an EU official.

·       Danish defense minister Troels Lund Poulsen and Greenland’s foreign minister Vivian Motzfeldt are due to meet Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte in Brussels to discuss Arctic security and US plans for Greenland.

·       Chancellor Friedrich Merz meets Syria's President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Berlin, Germany.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov holds annual press conference in Moscow.

·       The Eurogroup will be meeting in Brussels.  The meeting of EU finance ministers will discuss policy priorities for 2026, hear a debrief of the recent G7 meeting, and discuss candidates for the post of ECB Vice President (breaking news: They have choses Croatian Central Bank Governor Bors Vujčić.)

·       The European Parliament will convene in plenary session through January 22nd in Strasbourg, France. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery gives a  presentation and participates in a  Q&A at the "Finance Focus” webinar organized by Bruegel.

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (December)

·       Euro Area CPI (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)

·       Romania Interest Rate Decision

·       Turkey Auto Production (December)/ Auto Sales (December)

·       Belarus GDP (December)

·       Switzerland World Economic Forum Annual Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Oman Inflation Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, January 20, 2026

Global

·       World Economic Forum Highlight: European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel, Swiss National Bank President Martin Schlegel, and Bank of Israel Governor Amir Yaron speak on a panel at the World Economic Forum.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Supreme Court scheduled Tuesday as its next opinion day amid a worldwide wait for a ruling on President Donald Trump’s signature tariffs. As is its practice, the court didn’t say which decisions are ready for release, only that rulings are possible when the justices take the bench at 10:00 a.m. Washington time.

·       Today is the deadline set by President Donald Trump for banks to cap US credit card interest rates at 10% for a year.

·       Today is the one-year anniversary of President Trump being sworn into office.

·       The US Senate is out of session this week, but the House of Representatives is in session.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/16)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (December)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (November)

·       Earnings: Intel, US Bancorp, Netflix, Fifth Third Bancorp

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant, closed for nearly 15 years in the aftermath of the massive Tohoku earthquake, reopens.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Services & Composite NZ PCI (December)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (January/20)

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (January)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (December)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (December)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (December)

·       India RBI Market Borrowing Auctions

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Brussels. Ministers will be discussing the program of the Cyprus presidency, the European semester 2026, and EU economic governance.

·       French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu is expected to unveil how his government intends to pass its 2026 budget proposal after suspending parliamentary negotiations.

·       IN the UK, today is the deadline for the planning application decision on Beijing’s proposal to create a Chinese embassy on the site of the old Royal Mint in London. Rejection could torpedo British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s planned trip to China, scheduled to take place at the end of this month.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden and Financial Policy Committee members Liz Oakes and Jonathan Hall appear at a Treasury Select Committee hearing on the Financial Stability Report.

·       Germany PPI (December)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (January)/ ZEW Current Conditions (January)

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (November)/ Employment Change (November)/ Claimant Count Change (December)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (December)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (December)

·       Euro Area Current Account (November)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (January)/ Construction Output (November)

·       Greece Current Account (November)

·       Italy Current Account (November)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (November)

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (December)

·       Slovakia Current Account (November)/ Unemployment Rate (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Real Estate Price Index Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (November)/ Mining Production (November)

Wednesday, January 21, 2026

Global

·       World Economic Forum Highlight: President Trump is scheduled to address the Forum.

·       World Economic Forum Highlight: European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Governing Council members Francois Villeroy de Galhau and Joachim Nagel speak on panels.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on Haiti.

·       The International Energy Agency releases its monthly oil market report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Supreme Court is set to hear oral arguments in the case of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, whom President Trump has attempted to fire on mortgage-related allegations.

·       The US begins an indefinite pause on processing visa applications for 75 countries.

·       Chile’s President-elect Jose Antonio Kast presents his cabinet.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Retail Sales (November)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/16)/ MBA Purchase Index (January/16)/ Redbook (January/17)/ Pending Home Sales (December)/ Construction Spending (September & October)

·       Canada PPI (December)/ Raw Materials Prices (December)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (November)

·       Earnings: Charles Schwab, Halliburton, Johnson & Johnson, Travelers, United Airlines 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan's Nara District Court will deliver its verdict on Tetsuya Yamagami, who has been charged with the 2022 assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Prosecutors are seeking a life sentence in one of Japan's most closely watched criminal trials in recent years.

·       South Korea's former Prime Minister Han Duck-soo's sentencing on charges related to martial law.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (December)

·       Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit Facility Rate (January)/ Lending Facility Rate (January)/ Loan Growth (December)

·       India M3 Money Supply (January/09)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Military Chiefs of Defence meeting begins in Brussels, concluding on Thursday with a discussion on Ukraine and a press conference.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Justice and Home Affairs Ministers through January 23rd in Lefkosia, Cyprus.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in a Stakeholder Dialogue titled 'Decade Déjà Vu: Are the 2020s the New 1920s?' during World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.  Later in the day, she participates in aStakeholder Dialogue titled 'Second Act for EU Single Market'.

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (December)/ PPI Input (December)/ PPI Output (December)/ Retail Price Index (December)/ CBI Business Optimism Index Q1/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (January)

·       France IEA Oil Market Report

·       Italy Construction Output (November)

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (November)

·       Russia Current Account Q4

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Tunisia's largest labor union, the Tunisian General Labour Union, will hold a nationwide general strike.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (December)

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Central African Republic’s Constitutional Court announces the final results of the presidential election.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (December)/ Retail Sales (November)

Thursday, January 22, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       TikTok’s US joint venture is expected to be formed. The new entity will control data protection, content moderation and algorithm security in the country.

·       Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa visits Belgium to seek investment agreements with European Union partners.

·       Jack Smith, the former special counsel who led two failed prosecutions of President Donald Trump, to testify to the House Judiciary Committee.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (January)/ New Housing Price Index (December)

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (January)

·       USA GDP Price Index Q3/ Initial Jobless Claims (January/17)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (January/10)/ Corporate Profits Q3/ PCE Prices Q3/ PCE Price Index (October & November)/ Personal Income (October & November)/ Personal Spending (October & November)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (January/16)/ Kansas Fed Composite Index (January)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (January)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (January/16)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/22)/ Fed Balance Sheet (January/21)

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (November)/ Imports (November)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (November)/ Leading Indicator (December)

·       Earnings: Abbott Laboratories, Alcoa, Capital One, CSX, Freeport-McMoRan, GE Aerospace, Huntington Bancshares, Intel, McCormick & Co, Procter & Gamble

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (December)/ Visitor Arrivals (November)

·       South Korea GDP Growth Rate Adv Q4

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Foreign Bond Investment (January/17)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (January/17)

·       Australia Employment Change (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Participation Rate (December)

·       Malaysia Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting summary will be released.

·       Turkey Business Confidence (January)/ Capacity Utilization (January)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing Rate (January)/ Overnight Lending Rate (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/16)

·       Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (December)/ CBI Distributive Trades (January)

·       Poland Business Confidence (January)/ Consumer Confidence (January)/ Corporate Sector Wages (December)/ Employment Growth (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ PPI (December)

·       Germany Bundesbank Monthly Report

·       Ireland Bundesbank Monthly Report

·       Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (November)

·       Ghana PPI (December)

Friday, January 23, 2026

Global

·       World Economic Forum Highlight: European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is part of a dialogue on “The Global Economic Outlook” at Davos, along with IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva 

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on Colombia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI(January)

·       Chile PPI (December)

·       Mexico Economic Activity (November)

·       Canada Retail Sales (November)/ Retail Sales Prel (December)/ Manufacturing Sales Prel (December)

·       USA S&P Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash (January)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Expectations (January)/ Michigan Current Conditions (January)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (January/23)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Colombia Industrial Production (November)/ ISE Economic Activity (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision/ PPI (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is First Philippine Republic Day, a national holiday.

·       Today is the last day of panda viewing in Japan before China return.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of Japan finishes two days of meetings on interest rates.

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (January)

·       New Zealand Inflation Rate Q4

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash (January)

·       Japan Inflation Rate (December)/ S&P Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash (January)

·       Singapore URA Property Index Q4/ Inflation Rate (December)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (December)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (November)/ Leading Index (November)

·       India HSBC Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash (January)/ Bank Loan Growth (January/09)/ Deposit Growth (January/09)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/16)         

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)/ M2 Money Supply (December)

·       Hong Kong Business Confidence Q1

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Council President Antonio Luis Santos da Costa and Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission President, travel to India for meetings with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Member of the Policy Committee Megan Greene gives a speech at the Resolution Foundation entitled “The Forks in the Curve” in London.

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in a Stakeholder Dialogue 'The Global Economic Outlook' during World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (January)/ Retail Sales (December)/ S&P Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash (January)/ BoE Greene Speech

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (November)/ Unemployment Rate (December)

·       France Business Confidence (January)/ Business Climate Indicator (January)/ HCOB Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash (January)

·       Germany HCOB Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash (January)

·       Euro Area HCOB Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash (January)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (January)/ Tourist Arrivals (December)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, January 24, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Unification Day in Romania.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, January 25, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Recommended Weekend Reads

What Does Russia’s Inability to Support Its Allies Mean for Its Own Future?,  The Massive Industrial Challenge To Modernize the U.S. Navy, Was Pandemic Fiscal Relief Effective Stimulus? And An Assessment of China’s Military Buildup

January 16 - 18, 2026

Below are a number of reports and articles we read this past week and found particularly interesting.  Hopefully, you will find them interesting and useful as well.  Have a great weekend.

The Future of Russia

• Putin’s great-power project faces the ‘end of an era’      Politico EU

  Moscow was also seemingly unable to protect its closest friend in South America earlier this month when the United States captured Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro, a leader who had dutifully made the trip to Moscow for Putin’s Victory Day Parade in May last year.  Embarrassingly, Moscow wasn’t even able to fend off the unprecedented U.S. seizure of an oil tanker flying a Russian flag. Just a year ago, Putin signed a 20-year strategic partnership agreement with Tehran. Now the regime — which supplied Russia with killer Shahed drones for its fight in Ukraine — is in danger of being toppled by protesters whom Trump has indicated he could intervene militarily to defend.  Russians have taken notice. “An entire era is coming to an end,” wrote a pro-war military blogger under the pen name Maxim Kalashnikov on Sunday, reflecting growing criticism of the Russian leadership. 

• Russia Is the World’s Worst Patron     Foreign Affairs

  For the last 20 years, Moscow has demonstrated an ability to inject itself as a player in regions with strong anti-American sentiment. But the Kremlin’s costly adventures have yet to show any practical benefits for enhancing Russia’s genuine security interests or boosting its economic prosperity. Involvement in places such as Venezuela serves only Putin’s vanity, a few votes of solidarity with Moscow at the UN General Assembly, and money-making opportunities for corrupt Russian officials. The result has been that from Syria to Venezuela to Iran, Putin has overpromised and underdelivered.
  

• Why Didn’t the Ukraine War Turn Russia’s Ruling Class Against Putin?   Carnegie Politka

  The answer is that Russia’s ruling class is disillusioned and fragmented. And, as the writer points out, the apparent suicide of the dismissed transport minister Roman Starovoit in 2025 was a reminder of the fragility of everyone’s position. For another, the idea that had brought together much of the establishment, “autocratic modernization”—that despite the authoritarian system, a rational state, capable of learning lessons and balancing interests, could still emerge in Russia—has obviously turned out to be a failure.

The Massive Challenge to Modernizing the U.S. Navy

• Helming A Sea Change: Building The Future Workforce For US Shipbuilding  McKinsey & Company

  According to the US Department of Labor, the shipbuilding industry may require about 200,000 to 250,000 additional maritime workers in critical occupations, such as welding, soldering, and front-line management, to satisfy demand over the next decade. If demand for ships increases, the labor gap will be even wider.

• Outlining the Challenges to the U.S. Naval Shipbuilding    Center for Strategic and International Studies

  Growing the size of the Navy has been a bipartisan goal of successive administrations and Congress over the last decade. The service faces capacity limitations as it struggles to meet the demands of its current aggressive operational tempo with a fleet that is small by historical standards and faces delays in conducting maintenance. The demand to increase the Navy’s ship count has only grown as China’s navy has overtaken the U.S. fleet in terms of size, with the blistering rate of production of its own shipbuilding industry.  Despite the Navy’s plans for growing the fleet and bipartisan efforts and funding from Congress, the U.S. shipbuilding enterprise—including the Navy, Department of Defense (DoD), Congress, and industry—has failed to consistently produce ships at the scale, speed, and cost demanded. These longstanding challenges stem from a series of interwoven, systemic issues within both the U.S. government and industry, as well as broader socioeconomic trends. This report outlines the challenges facing the U.S. naval shipbuilding enterprise, their underlying drivers, and some efforts the government has taken to mitigate them. 

Geoeconomics and Technology

• Was Pandemic Fiscal Relief an Effective Fiscal Stimulus? Evidence from Aid to State and Local Governments    Journal of Macroeconomics

  Abstract: We use an instrumental-variables estimator reliant on variation in congressional representation to analyze the macroeconomic effects of federal aid to state and local governments during the COVID-19 pandemic. Through December 2022, we estimate statistically insignificant impacts of federal aid on employment. Our baseline point estimate suggests that $603,000 were allocated for each state or local government job-year preserved, and the bounds on our baseline confidence interval rule out estimates smaller than $220,400. Our estimates of effects on aggregate income and output are centered on zero and imply modest, if any, spillover effects onto the broader economy.
  

• When Trade Compresses: The Impact of Liberalization on Wage Inequality  Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

  Abstract: We study the effects of trade liberalization on the full wage distribution, exploiting Spain's 1993 entry into the European Single Market. Using employer-employee data, we identify the causal effects of trade across the entire wage distribution, using a novel shift-share instrument embedded in an unconditional quantile regression. We find that the liberalization reduced wage inequality, leading to wage compression through earnings gains at the bottom of the distribution and wage losses at the top. We trace this compression to two asymmetric channels: import competition disproportionately harmed high earners, while export opportunities benefited low earners. The key mechanism is an import-driven “skill-downgrading.” A multi-region multi-sector model shows that the key insight for understanding these empirical results is that trade's distributional effects depend on the skill intensity of a country's tradable sector, and Spain's was relatively low-skill-intensive back then.
  

• Foreign Affairs: The Myth of the AI Race     Colin Kahl/ Foreign Affairs

  In July, the Trump administration released an artificial intelligence action plan titled “Winning the AI Race,” which framed global competition over AI in stark terms: whichever country achieves dominance in the technology will reap overwhelming economic, military, and geopolitical advantages. As it did during the Cold War with the space race or the nuclear buildup, the U.S. government is now treating AI as a contest with a single finish line and a single victor. But that premise is misleading. The United States and China, the world’s two AI superpowers, are not converging on the same path to AI leadership, nor are they competing across a single dimension. Instead, the AI competition is fragmenting across many domains, including the development of the most advanced large language and multimodal models; control over computing infrastructure such as data centers and top-of-the-line chips used to train and run models; influence over which technologies and standards are used throughout the world; and integration of AI into physical systems such as robots, factories, vehicles, and military platforms. Having an edge in one area does not automatically translate into an advantage in the others. As a result, it is plausible that Washington and Beijing could each emerge as leaders in different parts of the AI ecosystem rather than one side decisively outpacing the other across the board.

China’s Military Capability

• Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2025    U.S. Department of Defense

  Abstract: China’s historic military buildup has made the U.S. homeland increasingly vulnerable. China maintains a large and growing arsenal of nuclear, maritime, conventional long-range strike, cyber, and space capabilities able to directly threaten Americans’ security. In 2024, Chinese cyberespionage campaigns such as Volt Typhoon burrowed into U.S. critical infrastructure, demonstrating capabilities that could disrupt the U.S. military in a conflict and harm American interests. The PLA continues to make steady progress toward its 2027 goals, whereby the PLA must be able to achieve “strategic decisive victory” over Taiwan, “strategic counterbalance” against the United States in the nuclear and other strategic domains, and “strategic deterrence and control” against other regional countries. In other words, China expects to be able to fight and win a war on Taiwan by the end of 2027.

The World Economic Forum’s Global Risk Assessment

• Global Risks Reports 2026     World Economic Forum

  In advance of the World Economic Forum (WEF) meetings in Davos ,Switzerland this coming week, the WEF released their 21st edition Global Risks Report 2026. The report analyses global risks through three timeframes to support decision-makers in balancing current crises and longer-term priorities. Chapter 1 presents the findings of this year’s Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS), which captures insights from over 1,300 experts worldwide. It explores risks in the current or immediate term (in 2026), the short-to-medium term (to 2028) and in the long term (to 2036). Chapter 2 explores the range of implications of these risks and their interconnections, through six in-depth analyses of selected themes. Below are the key findings of the report, in which we compare the risk outlooks across the three-time horizons.