Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis.

Francis Kelly 7/28/25 Francis Kelly 7/28/25

The Global Week Ahead

Trade Deal and Tariff Deadlines Dominate the Geopolitical Week, Japan’s Diet Meets on the Future of Ruling Coalition, the UN Holds a Conference on a Two-State Solution, and the Fed Meets on Interest Rates

July 27 – August 3, 2025

Trade and tariff deadlines will continue to dominate geopolitics this coming week. At the time of this writing, President Trump—who is vacationing in Scotland—has clinched a deal with the European Union, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent meets with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Stockholm to discuss an extension of the freeze on trade tariffs.

The U.S.-EU deal would impose a 15 percent tariff on all EU imports, while the EU commits to buying $750 billion in U.S. energy products and another $600 billion in unspecified investments in the U.S. Not everyone is happy in the EU: France’s Prime Minister François Bayrou blasted the deal, saying, “It is a dark day when an alliance of free peoples, brought together to affirm their common values and to defend their common interests, resigns itself to submission.” We would advise markets to keep a sharp eye on whether the deal holds together in the coming days.

Bessent’s meeting with Vice Premier He is likely to produce both a continued suspension of new trade tariffs and progress toward a possible summit between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

All this comes as August 1st—Trump’s ultimate trade deadline for all countries—looms. South Korea, Canada, Mexico (three of the U.S.’s five largest trading partners), and other nations are racing to cut deals with the U.S. before draconian tariffs are put in place Friday. This includes a 50 percent tariff on all copper imports to the U.S. Japan and the EU—the other two top-five trading partners aside from China—now have tentative deals in place.

Also this week, the United Nations will be holding a two-day conference spearheaded by France and Saudi Arabia on creating a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine. The meeting comes only a few days after France announced it is recognizing a Palestinian state—a move not replicated by the rest of the European Union.

In Asia, markets will be watching what happens in Japan’s parliament—the Diet—after last week’s Upper House elections tossed the ruling Liberal Democratic Party from power. Will Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s coalition try to continue governing as a minority government, and will policy paralysis emerge, potentially impacting the Bank of Japan’s interest rate strategy?

Looking at the global economic radar screen, summer holidays are clearly taking place for most central bankers—very few speeches are scheduled (in fact, none are scheduled by any member of the European Central Bank—we can’t remember the last time we saw a week go by without at least one of them speaking somewhere). But central bank action will dominate markets this week nonetheless, with the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the Reserve Bank of Canada all meeting on interest rates.

The Fed meetings are being particularly closely watched, with all the political fireworks being fired off by the White House toward Fed Chair Jay Powell, demanding he lower rates. Market consensus is that a rate cut is unlikely for now, but more voices are suggesting it may happen in September.

Looking at economic reports this week in the U.S., the big one is the jobs report on Friday, which will be preceded by the JOLTS and ADP reports on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. The U.S. Q2 GDP print is out Wednesday, and June PCE is out Thursday. Also, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for July is out Tuesday. Finally, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Report is out Friday.

In Europe, the European Central Bank will publish its consumer expectations survey on Tuesday. This is followed by GDP reports for Germany, France, Italy, and the broader Eurozone on Wednesday, with inflation prints for those same countries out Thursday. Employment reports will also be released throughout the week.

Moving to Asia, China releases July PMIs on Thursday, along with June industrial production and retail sales. Japan releases July consumer confidence and retail sales.

What will consume markets, of course, is the flood of corporate earnings this week—almost 40 percent of the S&P 500 will report. Most of Europe’s major corporations are also reporting this week.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, July 27, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Industrial Profits (YTD) (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, July 28, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East, Syria.

· The United Nations High-Level International Conference on the Peacefull Settlement of the Question of Palestine and the Implementation of the Two-State Solution will be held through July 29 in New York. The meeting is being co-hosted by France and Saudi Arabia and comes days after France would formally recognize Palestine as a state.

· The Catholic Church holds the Jubilee of Youth through August 3 in Rome. More than 1 million young people are expected to attend.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Donald Trump meets with UK Prime Minister Kier Starmer in Aberdeen, Scotland.

· US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng meet in Stockholm, Sweden to negotiate an extension of the trade tariff truce.

· The US House of Representatives are out for the August recess and return September 2. The US Senate is likely to go out of session for the August recess this coming weekend.

· A Colombian court is expected announce verdict against former president Alvaro Uribe. He was charged with bribery of witnesses and procedural fraud dealing with an investigation into his supposed ties to right-wing paramilitary groups.

· Today is Independence Day in Peru.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil Bank Lending (June)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Mexico Balance of Trade (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

· Canada Average Weekly Earnings (May)/ Wholesale Sales (June)

· USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (July)/ Treasury Refunding Financing Est

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Lawmakers from Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party will hold a Diet meeting to review a recent election loss, which may influence the prime minister's fate.

· ASEAN Environmental Officials will hold its 36th annual meeting in Kuala Lumpur through July 31.

· The World Artificial Intelligence Conference is being held through July 29 in Shanghai, China to discuss global AI governance.

· Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos delivers his State of the Nation Address.

· Monsoon season officially begins in India.

· The GIIAS motor show begins in South Tangerang, Indonesia. It is the largest automotive exhibition in Southeast Asia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Taiwan Consumer Confidence (July)

· Japan BoJ JGB Purchases

· Malaysia PPI (June)

· Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

· India Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Georgia hosts the Agile Spirit 2025 military drills with NATO through August 6.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Slovenia Retail Sales (June)

· Ireland GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The AfriCaribbean Trade and Investment Forum, hosted by Afreximbank and the Grenada government, takes place in St George’s, the Caribbean island’s capital city.

· The Communications Regulators’ Association of Southern Africa holds its Consumer Committee meeting in DR Congo.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ghana Interest Rate Decision

Tuesday, July 29, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote related to the 2745 sanctions (arms embargo on the Central African Republic). The Security Council is also scheduled to hold a briefing on Maintenance of international peace and security: UN Peace Operations.

· The 2025 Global Conference on Climate and Health will be held from July 31 through in Brasilia, Brazil. This Global Conference is co-organized by the Government of Brazil, the World Health Organization (WHO), the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) and the Alliance for Transformative Action on Climate and Health (ATACH), and will serve as the annual, in-person meeting of ATACH members.

· The Sixth World Conference of Speakers of Parliament begins in Geneva, Switzerland and runs through July 31. The event includes representatives from Ukraine, Russia, Iran and Israel.

· The IMF publishes its report on state of world economy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee begins policy meetings on interest rates.

· USA Goods Trade Balance (June)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (June)/ Wholesale Inventories (June)/ Redbook (July/26)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (May)/ House Price Index (May)/ JOLTs Job Openings (June)/ JOLTs Job Quits (June)/ CB Consumer Confidence (July)/ Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (July)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (July/25)

· Chile Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Territory Day in the islands of Wallis and Futuna, celebrating when they became a French Overseas Territory in 1961.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Indonesia Foreign Direct Investment Q2

· Singapore Import Prices (June)/ Export Prices (June)/ PPI (June)

· Sri Lanka Balance of Trade (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will meet with Jordan's King Abdullah II in Berlin, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Spain GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Retail Sales (June)

· Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (June)/ Mortgage Lending & Approvals (June)/ M4 Money Supply (June)/ Net Lending to Individuals (June)

· France Unemployment Benefit Claims (June)/ Jobseekers Total (June)

· Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev will meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara, Turkey.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa M3 Money Supply (June)/ Private Sector Credit (June)

Wednesday, July 30, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee decides on interest rates. A press conference with Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell will be held at 2 p.m.

· The Bank of Canada announces its interest rate decision and releases its Monetary Policy Report. Governor Tiff Macklem holds a press conference in the afternoon.

· Brazil IGP-M Inflation (July)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Net Payrolls (June)

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (July/25)/ MBA Purchase Index (July/25)/ ADP Employment Change (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ GDP Price Index Q2/ Treasury Refunding Announcement/ GDP Sales Q2/ PCE Prices Q2/ Real Consumer Spending Q2/ Pending Home Sales (June)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (July/25)

· Mexico GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Fiscal Balance (June)

· Chile Unemployment Rate (June)

· Colombia Business Confidence (June)

· Uruguay Unemployment Rate (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Bloomberg holds its Sustainable Business Summit in Singapore.

· Today is Independence Day in the Island nation of Vanuatu.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The Bank of Japan begins meetings on interest rates.

· New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (July)

· Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ PPI (June)

· Australia Inflation Rate Q2/ Monthly CPI Indicator (June)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q2/ CPI Q2/ RBA Weighted Median CPI Q2

· China FDI (YTD) (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· France GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Household Consumption (June)

· Germany Retail Sales (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Hungary Balance of Trade (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Slovakia Business Confidence (July)/ Consumer Confidence (July)

· Spain Inflation Rate (July)/ Business Confidence (July)

· Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (July)/ Economic Sentiment Index (July)

· Turkey Unemployment Rate (June)/ Economic Confidence Index (July)/ Participation Rate (June)

· Italy GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Sales (May)

· Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Economic Sentiment (July)/ Consumer Confidence Final (July)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (July)/ Industrial Sentiment (July)/ Selling Price Expectations (July)/ Services Sentiment (July)

· Greece PPI (June)

· Ireland Retail Sales (June)

· Russia Unemployment Rate (June)/ Business Confidence (July)/ Real Wage Growth (May)/ Retail Sales (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem makes an address for the anniversary of Commander Fuad Shukr's killing.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Annual African Finance Association Conference is held in Cape Town, South Africa.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mozambique Interest Rate Decision

· South Africa Budget Balance (June)

Thursday, July 31, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· New U.S. tariffs on several trade partners, including South Korea and Japan, will come into effect, barring new trade deals.

· NASA's SpaceX Crew-11 launches to the International Space Station (ISS).

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (June)/ Nominal Budget Balance (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

· USA Challenger Job Cuts (July)/ Personal Income & Spending (June)/ Employment Cost Index Q2/ Initial Jobless Claims (July/26)/ PCE Price Index (June)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (July/19)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (July)/ Chicago PMI (July)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (July)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/31)/ Fed Balance Sheet (July/30)

· Canada GDP (May)

· Chile Copper Production (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

· Colombia Unemployment Rate (June)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (June)

· Uruguay Balance of Trade (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan is tentatively scheduled to hold a post-election extraordinary Diet session to elect new heads of the upper house.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

· Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decisions and Quarterly Outlook Report

· Japan Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Foreign Bond Investment (July/26)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (July/26)/Consumer Confidence (July)/ Housing Starts (June)/ Construction Orders (June)

· Australia Building Permits (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Import Prices Q2/ Export Prices Q2/ Housing Credit (June)/ Private House Approvals (June)/ Private Sector Credit (June)/ Totality Dwelling Prices (July)

· China NBS Manufacturing/ Non-Manufacturing/ General PMI (July)

· Singapore Bank Lending (June)/ Unemployment Rate Q2/ Business Confidence Q2

· Thailand Industrial Production (June)/ Current Account (June)/ Private Consumption & Investment (June)/ Retail Sales (May)

· Malaysia M3 Money Supply (June)

· Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Retail Sales (June)

· Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI (May)/ PPI (June)/ Unemployment Rate Q1

· India Government Budget Value (June)

· Kazakhstan GDP Growth Rate Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany Import Prices (June)/ Unemployed Persons (July)/ Unemployment Change (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (July)/ Bavaria CPI (July)/ Brandenburg CPI (July)/ Hesse CPI (July)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (July)/ Saxony CPI (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)

· Hungary PPI (June)

· Switzerland Retail Sales (June)

· France Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI (June)

· Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (June)/ Tourism Revenues Q2/ Tourist Arrivals (June)/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/25)

· Italy Unemployment Rate (June)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI (June)

· Poland Inflation Rate (July)

· Spain Current Account (May)

· Slovenia Inflation Rate (July)

· Euro Area Unemployment Rate (June)

· Greece Retail Sales (May)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

· Ireland Inflation Rate (June)

· Serbia Balance of Trade (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

· Ukraine Current Account (June)

· Russia M2 Money Supply (June)/ GDP (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q2/ M3 Money Supply (June)/ Private Bank Lending (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa PPI (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

· Egypt M2 Money Supply (June)

· Kenya Inflation Rate (July)

Friday, August 1, 2025

Global

· Panama takes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of August.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump’s 50 percent tariff on imported copper goes into effect.

· Today is Emancipation Day in Guyana.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (July)/ Industrial Production (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Mexico Business Confidence (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (June)

· USA Non-Farm Payrolls (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ Average Hourly Earnings (July)/ Participation Rate (July)/ Average Weekly Hours (July)/ Government Payrolls (July)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (July)/ Nonfarm Payrolls Private (July)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (July)/ Construction Spending (June)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (July)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (July)/ Michigan Current Conditions Final (July)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (August/01)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/01)

· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Peru Inflation Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence/ Building Permits (June)

· Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (July)/ PPI Q2/ Commodity Prices (July)

· Japan Unemployment Rate (June)/ Jobs/applications ratio (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ Tourist Arrivals (June)

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Business Confidence (July)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (July)

· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (July)/ Bank Loan Growth (July/18)/ Deposit Growth (July/18)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/25)

· Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (July)

· Pakistan Inflation Rate (July)/ Wholesale Prices (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Switzerland's National Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Romania PPI (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (July)

· Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Spain Tourist Arrivals (June)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Switzerland procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Retail Sales (June)/ New Car Registrations (July)

· France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ CPI Flash (July)

· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Benin.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (July)

· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (July)

Saturday, August 2, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the official start of the compliance period for EU rules on general-purpose AI models like ChatGPT and Google's Gemini.

· Today is Republic Day in North Macedonia.

· Cowes Week, the largest and longest-running international sailing regatta in the world, begins on the Isle of Wight, running until August 8.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, August 3, 2025

Global

· The OPEC+ monthly meeting (virtual) is held.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos begins a state visit to India.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 7/20/25 Francis Kelly 7/20/25

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The Fed Holds a Conference on Large Bank Capital Standards, Congress Passes the First-Ever Crypto Reg Bill and Tees Up More Legislation, And Will the SEC and CFTC Merge?

July 21 - 25, 2025

Washington is currently experiencing the hottest July in recorded history, peppered by what seems like almost daily massive thunderstorms. But neither beating sun nor driving rain is slowing down the financial regulatory world in the nation’s capital. A lot is going on.

First, Congress has just passed, and President Trump signed into law, the first-ever major legislative cryptocurrency law, creating new rules for stablecoins. It is a major victory for the crypto industry. Additionally, the House passed on Thursday by a 294-1345 margin much broader crypto legislation, which would create a brand-new market structure for crypto.

This comes as news broke President Trump is preparing to sign an executive order soon allowing the $9 trillion US retirement market to invest in crypto as well as gold and private equity. This would include 401(k) plans as well as pensions.

Congress was busy this past week on a number of other fronts of interest and concern to the markets. We would first note first that the Chairman of the House Select Committee on China, Representative John Moolenaar (R-MI) and the Chair of the Senate Special Committee on Aging, Senator Rick Scott (R-FL) sent letters to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC0 and the head of the Public Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) demanding an urgent briefing on the risks posed to US investors by Chinese companies listed on US stock exchanges. Their letter revives a debate in Congress to force the delisting of Chinese companies (which we would point out have a combined market capitalization of $1.1 trillion). Our view is, barring a major, unseen negative turn in US-China relations, the delisting effort will peter out eventually. But it is a serious pressure point and worth watching.

Meanwhile, Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Paul Atkins made headlines on Thursday when he signaled his support for merging the SEC with the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This is not a new idea – indeed, we remember 30+ years ago a raging debate over merging the two, which did not go well. But these are different times as the Trump Administration is driving massive structural and budgetary changes to the federal government.

Atkins also this past week pushed out the head of the Public Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB), Erica Williams (who had been put there by the Biden Administration). The move had long been expected and is seen as part of a likely consolidation of the PCAOB into the SEC in the near future.

Finally, Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell continued to weather considerable criticism for the $1.5 billion renovation of the Fed’s headquarters. In fact, Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) said Thursday in a post on X that she is “criminally referring” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to the Justice Department to “investigate perjury” regarding the $2.5 billion renovation project. We do not think this will be taken up by Justice, but it shows how ugly the issue has become. But something a relief valve may have emerged on Friday when the Associated Press reported the most expensive renovations were actually initially pushed for by three Trump appointees on the Commission of Fine Arts which advises the federal government on architecture.

Looking at the week ahead, the Senate Agriculture Committee announced they will (finally) vote on the confirmation of CFTC Chair-nominee Brian Quintenz on Monday. Quintenz then has then get a full confirmation vote by the full Senate. Looking at the Senate calendar – which includes the Senate being out of session for all of August – this suggests to us Quintenz probably will not get that final confirmation vote until late September or sometime in October. The Senate wheels move slowly, and the most precious commodity in the world may actually be finding time on the Senate floor schedule to get anything done.

And the big event of the week will be at the Federal Reserve, which is holding its “Integrated Review of the Capital Framework for Large Banks Conference.” Fed Chair Powell and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will both speak. The conference is a prelude to forthcoming major changes to bank capital standards, something big banks have been pushing hard for in recent years.

Below are the meetings and events happening this week in Washington of note:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· Tuesday, July 22, 9:45 a.m. – The Senate Finance Committee holds a markup to vote on the nominations of Joseph Barloon to be a deputy U.S. Trade Representative in the Geneva Office, and Brian Morrissey Jr., to be general counsel for the Treasury Department.

· Tuesday, July 22, 10:15 a.m. – The Senate Finance Committee holds a hearing on the nominations of Jonathan McKernan to be a Treasury undersecretary for Domestic Finance.

· Wednesday, July 23, 3:00 p.m. – The Senate Agriculture Committee will vote on the confirmation of CFTC Chair nominee Brian Quintenz as well as several nominees for the Department of Agriculture.

House of Representatives

· Tuesday, July 22, 10:00 a.m. and Wednesday, July 23, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing to markup various measures (17 measures in total).

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Tuesday, July 22, 8:30 a.m. – The Federal Reserve Board of Governors holds it "Integrated Review of the Capital Framework for Large Banks Conference." Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell delivers opening remarks and at 1:00 p.m. Federal Reserve Board Vice Chairman Michelle Bowman delivers remarks.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Tuesday, July 22, 10:00 a.m. – Securities and Exchange Commission holds a meeting of the Small Business Capital Formation Advisory Committee to discuss matters relating to rules and regulations affecting small and emerging businesses and their investors under the federal securities laws.

· Thursday, July 24, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· Thursday, July 24, 10:00 a.m. – The National Credit Union Administration Board will hold a meeting. The agenda includes A briefing on artificial intelligence; A briefing from the NCUA Ombudsman; and a briefing on the Central Liquidity Facility.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· Thursday, July 22, 2:00 p.m. – The Justice Department's Antitrust Division; the Federal Trade Commission; the Commerce Department; and the Health and Human Services Department holds a virtual event, beginning at 2 p.m., on "Formulary and Benefit Practices and Regulatory Abuse Impacting Drug Competition."

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Tuesday, July 22, 5:00 p.m. – The American Bar Association holds its 2025 Antitrust Regional Reception.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Monday, July 21, 8:30 a.m. – The American Enterprise Institute holds a panel discussion entitled "International Tax Cooperation and Competition: A Reset."

· Tuesday, July 22, 9:15 a.m. – The Brookings Institution's Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy, Purdue University's Business School, the Brandeis International Business School's Institute of Global Finance, the University of Texas at Austin Public Affairs School, and the University of Chicago Public Policy School's Center for Municipal Finance hold the 14th annual Municipal Finance Conference in Washington, D.C.

· Tuesday, July 22, 12:00 p.m. – The Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 12 p.m., on "Litigation Update: FTC v. Meta."

· Tuesday – Thursday, July 22 – 25 – The Center for Global Development holds its annual Bank Conference on Development Economics 2025, with the theme "Development in the Age of Populism."

· Wednesday, July 23, 8:00 a.m. – Axios holds a discussion on the impact of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" as well as what's next for the remainder of the year and heading into the 2026 midterm elections. Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC), a member of the Senate Banking Committee, will speak.

· Wednesday, July 23, 11:00 a.m. – The R Street Institute holds a virtual panel discussion entitled “Reconciliation Lookback: Farm Subsidy Policy and the Future of the Farm Bill.” This will include a heavy focus on the impact on crop insurance and federal farm policy overall.

· Wednesday, July 23, 1:00 p.m. – The Brookings Institution holds a virtual event entitled “Accelerating local climate investment amid federal uncertainty.”

· Thursday, July 24, 11:30 a.m. – The Brookings Institution holds a rescheduled event entitled “The House Financial Services Committee Agenda: A Conversation with Representative Maxine Waters (D-CA).

· Thursday, July 24, 2:00 p.m. – The Cato Institute holds a forum on "Removing Barriers to Capital Formation."

· Thursday, July 24, 3:00 p.m. – The Urban Institute holds a discussion on "The Past, Present, and Future of Credit Scores in Housing Finance."

Recommended Reading

How Shadow Banking Reshapes the Optimal Mix of Regulation Liberty Street Economics/Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Decisions that are privately optimal often impose externalities on other agents, giving rise to regulations aimed at implementing socially optimal outcomes. In the banking industry, regulations are particularly heavy, plausibly reflecting a view by regulators that the relevant externalities could culminate in financial crises and destabilize the broader economy. Over time, the toolkit for regulating banks and bank-like institutions has expanded, as has banks’ restructuring of activities into shadow banking to lessen the regulatory burden. This post, based on our recent Staff Report, explores the optimal mix of prudential tools for bank regulators in a wide range of environments.
The Dodd-Frank Act at 15: Has It Worked? Paul Kupiec/American Enterprise Institute
In testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on July 15, AEI Scholar Pau Kupiec argued that “Judging the Dodd-Frank Act by its own preamble, the Act is a failure. Notwithstanding the many complex and intrusive provisions of the Act, the financial system experienced a systemic banking crisis in March 2023. Widespread bank runs were averted when the federal government was forced to take measures to bailout the banking system.” Kupiec, who is the former Director of Research at the FDIC, goes on to say that “…the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) has little ability to detect and mitigate actual risk created by so-called systemically important financial institutions or unregulated markets.”
Spotting Financial Crisis’s Early MacroXX Substack
Economists have long debated whether financial crises can be foreseen. While this question is not new, a notable study from March 2021 provides clear evidence that crises can often be predicted—typically triggered by rapid credit growth alongside sharp increases in asset prices. Harvard researchers Robin Greenwood, Samuel Hanson, Andrei Shleifer, and Jakob Sørensen showed that financial crises aren’t just freak accidents—they often build up in plain sight. According to this study, financial crises can be forecasted by examining past credit growth in businesses and households using relatively simple models.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 7/18/25 Francis Kelly 7/18/25

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The Fed Votes to Move Ease Rating Requirements for “Well Managed” Banks, Just as the Renovation and Bee Controversy Heats Up, Gould Gets Confirmed as Comptroller, and Two Major Crypto Bills Make Major Strides

July 14 - 18, 2025

It may be the middle of summer in Washington, but it remains a busy time here in the nation’s capital for Congress and regulators.

On Tuesday, the House of Representatives is poised to pass two major pieces of legislation and send one of them to President Trump’s desk to be signed into law. The first bill will regulate so-called Stable Coins. President Trump has indicated he will sign the legislation. The second bill would create a crypto market structure bill and will be sent to the Senate.

The House Financial Services Committee is holding more hearings this coming week, looking at the impact of Dodd-Frank, which was passed into law 15 years ago. Talking to Congressional staff, it is all part of a prelude to likely new deregulatory legislation in the coming months. It also provides some cover to the SEC and CFTC to look at deregulatory moves, as well.

Meanwhile, the Senate confirmed Jonathan Gould as Comptroller of the Currency last week and is getting ready for a confirmation hearing for Travis Hill as the next Chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC).

As all this was happening, the Federal Reserve voted last week to move forward with a proposed regulation adjusting the supervisory rating framework, something that is likely to make it easier for banks to merge. Currently, any bank that loses its “well-managed” status can be limited in its ability to undertake certain activities, such as mergers and acquisitions, as well as in investing in other companies involved in certain financial activities.

But that was the good news out of the Fed for the week. Fed Chair Jay Powell continues to be under growing fire for an ongoing renovation of the Federal Reserve headquarters. More Republican members of Congress and supporters of President Trump are beginning to argue the supposed mismanagement of the project, which reportedly includes lavish remodeling of the headquarters and the building of beehives on the Fed grounds, as a “cause” for which President Trump can fire Powell. We are dubious it will get to that point and believe it is all part of a larger effort to pressure Powell to move on lowering interest rates at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Below are the meetings and events happening this week in Washington of note:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· Tuesday, July 15, 3:00 p.m. – The Senate Agriculture Committee holds a hearing entitled “Stakeholder Perspectives on Federal Oversight of Digital Commodities.’

House of Representatives

· Tuesday, July 15, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing entitled “Dodd-Frank Turns 15: Lessons Learned and the Road Ahead” You can read the Committee Staff Background Memo HERE.

· Wednesday, July 16, 9:00 a.m. – The House Ways and Means Oversight Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Making America the Crypto Capital of the World: Ensuring Digital Asset Policy Built for the 21st Century."

· Wednesday, July 16, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions holds a hearing entitled “U.S. Policy on Investment Security.”

· Wednesday, July 16, 2:00 p.m. – The House Agriculture General Farm Commodities. Risk Management, and Credit Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Financing Farm Operations: The Importance of Credit and Risk Management.

· Wednesday, July 16, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Housing and Insurance Subcommittee holds a hearing on "HOME 2.: Modern Solutions to the Housing Shortage."

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Tuesday, July 15 - The Federal Reserve holds its Unleashing a Financially Inclusive Future Conference in Washington, D.C.

· Tuesday, July 15, 9:15 a.m. – Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will give remarks at the Federal Reserve Board's Second Annual Financial Inclusion Conference (via pre-recorded video).

· Tuesday, July 15, 12:45 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr will give a speech entitled “expanding financial inclusion” at the Federal Reserve Board's Second Annual Financial Inclusion Conference, Washington, D.C.

· Wednesday, July 16, 9:15 a.m. – Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on "Community Development" before the Cuyahoga County Community College Corporate College 20th Anniversary Celebration Business Breakfast.

· Wednesday, July 16, 10:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr will give a speech on financial regulation at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

· Wednesday, July 16, 6:30 p.m. – New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote before the New York Association for Business Economics (NYABE) Distinguished Speaker Series.

· Thursday, July 17, 10:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler will give a speech entitled “A view of the Housing Market and U.S. Economic Outlook” at the Housing Partnership Network Symposium in Washington, D.C.

· Thursday, July 17, 1:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech at the National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute (virtually).

· Thursday, July 17, 6;30 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Money Marketeers Event in New York.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Thursday, July 17, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· Tuesday, July 15, 10:00 a.m. – The FDIC Board will meet in open session. The agenda includes a proposed amendment to FDIC Guidelines for Appeals of Material Supervisory Determinations; Notice of Proposed Rulemaking regarding Adjusting and Indexing Part 363 and Certain Other FDIC Regulatory Thresholds; Request for Information regarding Industrial Banks and Industrial Loan Companies and Their Parent Companies. Additionally, the Board will vote on a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking regarding Community Reinvestment Act Regulations, a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking regarding Establishment and Relocation of Branches and Offices, a Notice regarding Parent Companies of Industrial Banks and Industrial Loan Companies; Withdrawal of Proposed Rule, and a Notice regarding Regulatory Publication and Review Under the Economic Growth and Regulatory Paperwork Reduction Act of 1996.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Thursday, July 17 – The American Bankers Association holds its Women Lead Symposium (virtual).

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Wednesday, July 16, Noon – The Exchequer Club of Washington, D.C. will host Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) as their luncheon speaker.

· Thursday, July 17, 11:30 a.m. – The Brookings Institution holds a discussion on "The House Financial Services Committee Agenda” with House Financial Services Committee’s Ranking Democrat, Representative Maxine Waters (D-CA).

Recommended Reading

AI’s role in credit is growing, are things moving too fast? Federal Reserve Bank of Boston The Future of Finance Podcast
People in the credit business are starting to see just how much AI can do for them. It can improve profits and lower defaults. It can predict demand for new services. It can see past credit scores and comprehensively assess lending risks. That’s why AI’s role in credit is only going to get bigger going forward. Some people are very excited about that. And some are very worried. AI will lie unless you tell it not to. It will collude on pricing with other AI. Experts say those are a couple reasons why we need to proceed with caution and better understand potential hazards. For additional background on this subject, read an outline of the keynote speech at the 68th Economic Conference by UC-Berkeley professor Adair Morse, “AI Innovation for Credit: Frontiers of Benefits & Red Flags.” Watch a recording of the speech.
Reporting FinCEN’s Suspicious Activity, Again Cato Institute
The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) has released its 2024 “Year in Review” report, and things are not looking good. Once again, the agency has highlighted lackluster statistics in an attempt to justify financial surveillance in the United States. Let’s start at the top and work our way down. Under the Bank Secrecy Act, banks and other financial institutions are required by law to report customers under certain circumstances. According to FinCEN, more than 27.5 million reports were filed in 2024 (Table 1). That’s roughly 75 thousand reports a day.
Banking Analytics: The Growing Connection between Bank and Nonbank Sectors Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
In the first quarter of 2025, U.S. banks held $1.14 trillion in loans outstanding to the nonbank financial sector. This sector consists of nondepository financial institutions (NDFIs), which engage in credit intermediation, asset management, market-making and other financial services in the economy. This interconnectedness between banks and nonbanks adds an extra layer of intermediation, as banks lend to mortgage companies, insurance companies, investment funds (such as mutual funds, money market funds, hedge funds and private capital funds), pension funds, broker-dealers, securitization vehicles and other financial entities, which then lend directly to end users in the economy.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 7/13/25 Francis Kelly 7/13/25

The Global Week Ahead

President Trump to Make “Major Statement” on Ukraine, Japan Holds Major Elections, German Chancellor Merz Travels to London To Sign the UK-Germany Strategic Partnership Treaty, and the G20 Finance Ministers Meet in South Africa

July 13 - 20, 2025

It will be another hectic week on the geopolitical stage as President Trump has promised to make a “major statement” on Ukraine on Monday. The announcement, which is expected to be a substantial commitment of new military aid to Ukraine, comes as the President meets with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Washington. If Trump does, in fact, announce a sizeable commitment of weapons to Kyiv, it will be a major policy shift for the President and suggest a significant new turn in the war, not to mention Trump’s growing irritation with Russian President Vladimir Putin for refusing to engage in peace negotiations.

All this comes as President Trump continues to press forward with aggressive tariff threats, announcing on Friday that he is putting new tariffs on the European Union, Mexico, and Canada. Both Mexico and Canada are going to be hit with new 30 percent tariffs for fentanyl smuggling into the US, according to a letter Trump posted on Truth Social, his media platform. The EU will also face new 30 percent tariffs, according to Trump’s letter, for failing to deal in good faith with the US in ongoing trade negotiations.

Also, this week, markets will be watching Japan’s Upper House elections to understand the further stability of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishida’s ruling government and what sort of flexibility the Bank of Japan has on raising interest rates. Japan’s opposition parties are advocating for tax cuts and looser monetary policy, and if they gain substantially in Sunday’s elections, the central bank will feel significant pressure not to raise rates.

Trump will host Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos next Sunday for trade talks while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent travels to Japan to attend the World Expo in Osaka. While no formal bilateral meetings between Bessent and Japanese negotiators have been announced, it is expected that he will sit down with them while there to try and unlock stalled trade talks.

In Europe this week, German Chancellor Fredrich Merz makes his first visit to London since being elected in May. While there, he will sign a new UK-Germany Strategic Partnership Treaty designed to significantly ramp up mutual defense and economic cooperation, all part of greater Europe’s effort rapidly build up military capabilities in the face of Russia’s ongoing aggression in Ukraine and Russian President Putin’s continuous demands for Eastern European countries to leave NATO.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, G20 finance and central bank governors meet in South Africa. No significant announcements or outcomes are expected from those meetings at this time.

In terms of major economic reports this week, the highly anticipated US June CPI report is out on Tuesday, telling markets if there is any new inflationary movement as a result of the Trump tariffs. The PPI report will be out on Wednesday, and the preliminary University of Michigan consumer survey results for July will be released on Friday. Also out this week are the Fed’s Beige Book on Wednesday, along with industrial production numbers. And the June retail sales come out on Thursday.

While we normally do not cover earnings, we note that many of the largest US banks will be releasing earnings this week (JP Morgan, Bank of New York Mellon, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, BlackRock, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs). Markets will be looking to see how strong their earnings are as another indicator of overall US economic strength.

Turning to Asia, China’s Q2 GDP and June retail activity data are out on Tuesday. Japan releases the Bank of Japan’s Opinion Survey on the General Public's Views and Behavior for June on Monday, the June customs trade data on Thursday, and the CPI figures on Friday.

In Europe this week, the UK will release CPI data on Wednesday and labor market reports on Thursday.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, July 13, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the first anniversary of President Trump being shot at a rally in Pennsylvania.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese continues a six-day visit to China (which began on Saturday). Albanese has brought a large delegation of Australian businessmen in the hope of signing a number of trade deals.

· Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar travels to China for the first time in five years for meetings with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Jainshankar will then travel on to Tianjin to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s Council of Foreign Ministers July 14-15. The Chinese and Indian Foreign Ministers are expected to discuss Indian-Pakistan tensions, rare earth supplies to India, the Dalai Lama’s succession, and the resumption of direct flights between the two countries.

· Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visits Pyongyang, South Korea.

· Australia will host the Exercise Talisman Sabre 2025 military drills with 18 other participating nations, including the United States and Japan, through August 4.

· Japan holds the Chinreisha Festival (Spirit-Pacifying Shrine) at the Yasukuni Shrine dedicated to all of those who died in wars or incidents since 1853 and who cannot be enshrined in the Main sanctuary, in other words, enemies of Imperial Japan.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· France celebrates Bastille Day.

· Today is Sovereignty Day in Montenegro, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, July 14, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote related to the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) and the UN Mission to Support the Hudaydah Agreement (UNMHA). Also, in the morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the
United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP).

· The UN’s High-level Political Forum on Sustainable Development (HLPF) will open its session in the General Assembly Hall at the UN Headquarters in New York. The Forum will continue until 23 July.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will be in Washington through July 15 for meetings with President Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. President Trump, in an interview last week, said he would “have a major statement to make on Russia” today. It is believed he will formally announce new military aid programs for Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (May)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Canada Wholesale Sales (May)

· Argentina Inflation Rate (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Chinese-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s (SCO) Council of Foreign Ministers meets in Tianjin through July 15. They are expected to discuss regional trade and security matters. There are nine members of the SCO: the Republic of India, the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Republic of Kazakhstan, the People's Republic of China, the Kyrgyz Republic, the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, the Russian Federation, the Republic of Tajikistan, and the Republic of Uzbekistan.

· The China-EU Sixth High-Level Environment and Climate Dialogue begins in Beijing.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (June)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (June)

· Japan Machinery Orders (May)/ Capacity Utilization (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Tertiary Industry Index (May)

· Singapore GDP Growth Rate Q2

· China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ New Yuan Loans (June)/ M2 Money Supply (June)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (June)/ Total Social Financing (June)

· Malaysia Retail Sales (May)

· India WPI Food/ Fuel/ Inflation/ Manufacturing Index (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Brussels. EU trade ministers are expected to discuss the state of trade negotiations with the US, EU-China trade relations, and other major issues.

· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels. The agenda includes an overview of the current marketplace and an EU-wide initiative to diversify protein sources for food and feed.

· The first-ever EU-Central America Association Council meets in Brussels. The meeting brings together leaders from the EU and six Central American countries - Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama.

· France celebrates Bastille Day. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto is the guest of honor, per an invitation from French President Emmanuel Macron.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in an exchange of views at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

· Hungary Construction Output (May)

· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (June)

· Romania Current Account (May)

· Poland Balance of Trade (May)/ Current Account (May)

· Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech

· Turkey Auto Production & Sales (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel M1 Money Supply (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ghana PPI (June)

Tuesday, July 15, 2025

Global

· OPEC releases its monthly report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump will speak at the Pennsylvania Energy and Innovation Summit in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

· The Federal Reserve holds its Unleashing a Financially Inclusive Future Conference in Washington, D.C.

· The Senate Foreign Relations Committee will hold a confirmation hearing for former National Security Advisor Mike Walz to serve as US Ambassador to the United Nations.

· The Aspen Security Forum begins in Aspen, Colorado.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will give remarks at the Federal Reserve Board's Second Annual Financial Inclusion Conference (via pre-recorded video).

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr will give a speech entitled “Expanding Financial Inclusion” at the Federal Reserve Board's Second Annual Financial Inclusion Conference, Washington, D.C.

· Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan gives opening remarks before an event of the World Affairs Council of San Antonio.

· Canada Housing Starts (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ CPI Median (June)/ Manufacturing Sales (May)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (May)

· USA Inflation Rate (June)/ CPI (June)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (July)/ Redbook (July/12)/ Fed Bowman Speech/ NOPA Crush Report/API Crude Oil Stock Change (July/11)

· Colombia Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)

· Paraguay Consumer Confidence (June)

· Peru GDP Growth Rate (May)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index & Change (July)

· China House Price Index (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (June)/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q2/ Unemployment Rate (June)

· Kazakhstan Industrial Production (June)/ GDP (June)

· India Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

· New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (July/15)

· Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Services PMI (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas will chair the meeting of EU Foreign Ministers. The primary agenda items will be Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and will include a video discussion with Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Minister Andrii Sybiha. The ministers will also discuss the situation in Georgia, the Middle East (Gaza, Israel, and Iran), and the New Pact for the Mediterranean.

· UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves gives annual Mansion House speech in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives an introductory statement at Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the Annual Financial and Professional Services Dinner at Mansion House in London.

· Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (June)/ BoE Gov Bailey Speech

· Romania Industrial Production (May)

· Hungary Industrial Production (May)

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (June)

· Spain Inflation Rate (June)

· Poland Inflation Rate (June)

· Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (July)/ Industrial Production (May)/ ECB Buch Speech

· Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (July)/ ZEW Current Conditions (July)

· Serbia Building Permits (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Inflation Rate (June)

· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (June)/ Wholesale Prices (June)

· Oman Inflation Rate (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Gold Production (May)/ Mining Production (May)

· Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)/ M3 Money Supply (June)

· Nigeria Food Inflation (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

Wednesday, July 16, 2025

Global

· UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres is convening an informal meeting on Cyprus at UN Headquarters.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The inauguration of Jennifer Geerlings-Simons as the new President of Suriname is held in Paramiribo.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr will give a speech on financial regulation at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives a keynote before the New York Association for Business Economics (NYABE) Distinguished Speaker Series.

· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on "Community Development" before the Cuyahoga County Community College Corporate College 20th Anniversary Celebration Business Breakfast.

· The Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book/ USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (July/11)/ MBA Purchase Index (July/11)/ PPI (June)/Capacity Utilization (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)/ EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (July/11)

· Colombia Consumer Confidence (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The International Supply Chain Expo in Beijing begins and runs through Saturday. Nvidia will take part for the first time, according to state media reports.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Imports/ Export Prices (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (July)

· Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit Facility Rate (July)/ Lending Facility Rate (July)

· Philippines Cash Remittances (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Commission will present a sweeping new EU budget reform package. This swill include proposals for the 2028-2035 EU multiannual financial framework that will include closer alignment on strategic priorities such as rearmament, industrial competition, and tech policy.

· There will be informal meetings of EU Research Ministers and EU Ministers for Internal Markets and Industry in Brussels through July 18.

· The Foreign Ministers of Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine – the so-called “Lublin Triangle” – will meet in Lublin, Lithuania.

· German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil and French counterpart Eric Lombard meet and hold a press conference in Berlin, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Great Britain Inflation Rate (June)/ Retail Price Index (June)

· Hungary Gross Wage (May)

· Italy Inflation Rate (June)/ Balance of Trade (May)

· Euro Area Balance of Trade (May)

· Ireland Residential Property Prices (May)

· Poland Core Inflation Rate (June)

· Belarus Industrial Production (June)

· Ukraine Balance of Trade (May)

· Russia PPI (June)

· Turkey Budget Balance (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Zambia will hold an International Investment Conference in Lusaka through July 18.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Retail Sales (May)

Thursday, July 17, 2025

Global

· G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors will begin two days of meetings in Zimbali, South Africa through July 18.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the 1701 report (ending hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler will give a speech entitled “A view of the Housing Market and U.S. Economic Outlook” at the Housing Partnership Network Symposium in Washington, D.C.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech at the National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute (virtually).

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Money Marketeers Event in New York.

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (July)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (May)

· USA Initial Jobless Claims (July/12)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (July)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (July/05)/ Import Prices (June)/ Export Prices (June)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (July)/ Retail Sales (June)/ / NAHB Housing Market Index (July)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (July/11)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/17)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (May)/ Foreign Bond Investment (May)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (May)/ Fed Balance Sheet (July/16)

· Argentina Balance of Trade (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Constitution Day in South Korea, which is not a national holiday anymore as of 2008.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Food Inflation (June)

· Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Foreign Bond Investment (July/12)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (July/12)

· Singapore Non-Oil Exports (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (July)/ Employment Change (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Participation Rate (June)

· Indonesia Loan Growth (June)

· Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· German Chancellor Friedrich Merz travels to London for his first official meeting since taking office in May. He will meet with Prime Minister Keir Starmer and will also sign the UK–Germany Strategic Partnership Treaty that will include significant mutual defense and economic cooperation.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' meeting in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

· Switzerland Balance of Trade (June)

· Great Britain Unemployment Rate (May)/ Employment Change (May)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (June)/ Claimant Count Change (June)

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (June)

· Euro Area CPI Final (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)

· Ireland Balance of Trade (May)

· Serbia Current Account (May)

· Belarus GDP (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Inflation Expectations (July)

· Jordan Industrial Production (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Building Permits (May)

Friday, July 18, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on Colombia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Constitution Day in Uruguay, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA Housing Starts (June)/ Building Permits (June)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (July)/ Michigan Current Conditions (July)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (July)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (July/18)

· Colombia ISE Economic Activity (May)

· Argentina Economic Activity (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Inflation Rate (June)/ BoJ JGB Purchases

· New Zealand Credit Card Spending (June)

· Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· India Bank Loan Growth (July/04)/ Deposit Growth (July/04)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/11)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· German Chancellor Friedrich Merz meets Romanian President Nicuşor Dan in Berlin, Germany.

· EU Immigration Ministers will gather in Berlin to discuss asylum rules.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany PPI (June)

· Euro Area Current Account (May)/ Construction Output (May)

· Italy Construction Output (May)/ Current Account (May)

· Spain Balance of Trade (May)

· Turkey Business Confidence Q3/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/11)

· Slovakia Current Account (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Angola Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, July 19, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent travels to Japan to attend the World Expo in Osaka. It is unclear at this point whether Bessent will hold bilateral meetings on trade with Japanese officials while there.

· Today is Liberation Day in Nicaragua, a national holiday celebrating the beginning of the hostilities pushing the Somoza family from power.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan holds its upper house of parliament elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, July 20, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos travels to Washington for meetings with President Trump through July 22.

· Today is Independence Day in Colombia, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan holds its upper house of parliament elections. 124 of the 248 members are up for election in the National Diet where they serve six-year terms.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (July)

· Japan Upper House Election

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 7/11/25 Francis Kelly 7/11/25

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The House is Poised to Vote on Landmark Crypto Legislation, Banks Ponder Coming Fed and Treasury Regulatory Moves, and Will There Be Bee Hives at the Fed?

July 7 - 11, 2025

We hope you had a wonderful 4th of July holiday. It was a beautiful weekend here in Washington. Now, the nation’s capital is slowly getting back to work slowly this week after the mammoth effort last effort to hammer out and pass President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), getting it to his desk for signature by his deadline of July 4th. It has left Congress rather exhausted, with members eagerly waiting for the August recess.

But the House of Representatives has several financial services-focused matters they are diving into this week. First, the House is likely to take up for passage three landmark crypto legislation this week (but we think it will slip until next week). The bills would 1) create a framework for dollar-pegged stablecoins (H.R. 2392 The Stablecoin Transparency and Accountability for a Better Ledger Economy Action of 2025, otherwise known as the STABLE Act) 2) ban central banks digital currencies (H.R. 1919, the Anti-CBDC Surveillance Act), and 3) define which regulators have oversight over digital assets (H.R. 2633, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 – otherwise known as the CLARITY Act).

How the House will move the bills – will they combine them all into one? Or one at a time? – remains unclear. And the White House and Senate Republicans are pushing the House to instead adopt the Senate-passed stablecoin bill known as the GENIUS Act (S.1582, The Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act). We will update you when we get some more clarity on the strategy the House leadership wants to take.

The House Financial Services Committee is busy this week holding two interesting hearings this week looking at the impact of the Dodd-Frank Act, suggesting the committee is looking at ways to reform and amend the 15-year-old law.

We would also note something else going on with Congress and from one regulator – a not-so-subtle, steady stream of calls for a full-blown investigation of Fed Chair Jay Powell and the Fed. The regulator making the accusations is Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte, who publicly called on Congress to investigate Powell for “political bias” as well as for renovations taking place at the Federal Reserve. Pulte – whose supporters have been not so quietly whispering he should be considered as the next Fed Chair – accused Powell of “malfeasance” that is “worthy of ‘for cause’ removal from the Chair.

From the congressional side, Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-SC) raised his concerns directly with Powell over the renovations during Powell’s recent testimony before the Banking Committee – concerns he repeated on the Sunday morning news shows yesterday. What is so outlandish about the renovations? Supposedly, there is a special VIP dining room being built, special elevators, a new roof terrace garden that would include beehives – all of which Powell has denied as being true (note: as a beekeeper myself, I think it would be very cool to have bees at the Fed. They could sell the honey to help pay down the debt – just a suggestion…).

Finally, with OBBBA out of the way and crypto legislation moving, banks are increasingly curious about what Fed regulatory and supervisory changes are going to be coming under Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman. The Fed is holding a conference on July 22 on large bank capital requirements. And likely other big regulatory shifts are going to come – but what exactly they will has become a giant guessing game among bank lobbyists.

Additionally, the Treasury Department, which seems to be the busiest place in Washington overseeing trade talks, the details of OBBBA, and a host of other issues, is planning to play a greater role in financial regulation. Back in April, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent spoke at the American Bankers Association Washington Summit and said Treasury’s involvement could come in several ways, such as a more active Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) or the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets. And there are still rumors floating around about a possible merger of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), along with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB).

All this suggests we are going to have a very busy fall when Congress gets back from its August recess. But for now, below are the meetings and events happening this week in Washington of note:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· Wednesday, July 9, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee holds a hearing entitled “From Wall Street to Web3: Building Tomorrow’s Digital Asset Markets.”

House of Representatives

· Tuesday, July 8, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing entitled “Main Street or Mandates? How Dodd-Frank Closed the Door on Financial Opportunities.” You can read the committee memorandum on the hearing and the legislation they will be considering during the hearing HERE.

· Wednesday, July 9, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Capital Markets holds a hearings entitled “Fifteen Years of Dodd-Frank: Assessing the Costs, Consequences, and Path Forward for U.S. Capital Markets.”

· Wednesday, July 9, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Housing & Insurance holds a hearing entitled “HOME 2.0: Modern Solutions to the Housing Shortage.”

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency

Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Thursday, July 10, 1:15 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller entitled “Balance Sheet” at a Conversation with Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and the World Affairs Council of Dallas/Fort Worth, Dallas, Texas

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Thursday, July 10, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

· Thursday, July 10, 10:00 a.m. – The Farm Credit Administration Board meets to hear a report on Food Hubs.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

· Wednesday, July 9, 10:00 a.m. – The FCSIC Board meetings. The agenda includes reviews of the FCSIC’s Quarterly FCSIC Financial Reports, Quarterly Report on Insured Obligations, Quarterly Report on Annual Performance Plan, and the Mid-Year Review of Insurance Premium Rates.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Wednesday, July 10, 10:00 a.m. ET – The Investment Company Institute holds a conference entitled “The Digital Future of Asset Management: Current State and Regulatory Landscape.”

Think Tanks and Other Events

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 7/6/25 Francis Kelly 7/6/25

The Global Week Ahead

Trump’s Reciprocal Tariff Extension Ends, The BRICS+ Summit Concludes, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu Returns to the White House, ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meet, The Eurogroup Gathers While Fed Minutes Are Released

July 6 - 13, 2025

It may be summer in the Northern Hemisphere, but there is a lot going on in Washington, Europe, and Asia this week. The biggest event politically and for markets this week comes on Wednesday when President Trump’s 90-day extension on placing “reciprocal tariffs” ends. At that point, President Trump is expected to revert back to the April 2nd rates on all countries that fail to secure a trade deal with the US. Or at least that was the case until Sunday morning when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters the actual reversion date will now be August 1st. The White House is sending letters to 100 smaller countries, after which the larger tariffs will take effect by that date.

EU financial ministers will gather for a Eurogroup meeting this week in Brussels, where US trade relations will be a major agenda item. The European Commission and the European Parliament are also expected to hold discussions on the US tariffs and strategies for reaching a deal.

Meanwhile, the BRICS+ Leaders’ Summit concludes on Monday in Brazil. The Summit lacked the hoped-for heft and impact after Chinese President Xi Jinping cancelled his attendance due to “scheduling conflicts,” and Russian President Vladimir Putin said he could not attend, mostly out of fear of being arrested for war crimes. Markets will be watching for the final communique and any indications of what comes next for the BRICS.

Also on Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be in Washington for a meeting with President Trump. It is Netanyahu’s third trip to Washington to meet with the President since Trump was inaugurated in January. The agenda is a big one: The two leaders are going to discuss the situation in Gaza, and Trump is expected to press Netanyahu on a more permanent ceasefire. They are also expected to discuss what comes next with Iran. There has been talk that US Special Envoy Steven Witkoff might meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi Monday – or perhaps later in the week – in Oslo, Norway, to discuss Iran’s nuclear program. But this has yet to be confirmed.

In Asia this week, ASEAN Foreign Ministers are going to be meeting in Kuala Lumpur on the sidelines of the ASEAN Regional Forum and the East Asia Summit – two of the biggest, most important multilateral meetings held in the region annually. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will be attending as will Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was scheduled to attend but cancelled at the end of last week to stay in Washington to focus on the Netanyahu meeting and the Iran nuclear talks. Rubio was also scheduled to fly to Japan and then South Korea to meet with his counterparts about regional security issues, but he has canceled that trip, too.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, next to the July 9th tariff deadline set by President Trump expiring, markets will be looking at the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee minutes, which are being released on Wednesday. Specifically, the focus will be on how divided the Fed might be on the issue of cutting interest rates – especially after Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman indicated recently they were in favor of cutting rates.

In Europe, markets are looking at the UK GDP release on Friday, Germany’s industrial production numbers on Monday, and the trade balance on Tuesday. And in Asia, China’s CPI is released on Wednesday, Japan releases wage data for May on Monday and the Economy Watchers report on Tuesday, and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision on Tuesday.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, July 6, 2025

Global

· The 15th BRICS Leaders’ Summit begins in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil and runs through July 7. Eleven members are expected to be represented. However, neither Chinese President Xi Jinping nor Russian President Vladimir Putin are going to attend.

· The OPEC+ monthly meeting will be held (virtually)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The 49th CARICOM (Caribbean Community) Heads of Government Meeting begins in Montego Bay, Jamaica and runs through July 8.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Dalai Lama is expected to reveal his succession plan via a video announcement.

· The Emperor of Japan will make an official visit to Mongolia through next Sunday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (June)/ Foreign Direct Investment (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Tourist Arrivals (June)

· Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Africa Spain Summit begins and runs through July 8 in Madrid. Government representatives from Guinea-Bissau, Somalia, Morocco and Sierra Leone will attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is National Day in Comoros, a national holiday.

· Today is Independence Day in Malawi, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, July 7, 2025

Global

· The International Seabed Authority Council meets in Kingston, Jamaica.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet with President Trump in Washington, D.C. The two leaders are expected to discuss next step on dealing with Iran as well as the situation in Gaza. This is the third visit by Netanyahu since Trump took office in January. As this meeting takes place, US Special Envoy Steven Witkoff may be meeting in Oslo, Norway with the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to discuss Iran’s nuclear development (but that meeting is yet to be confirmed).

· President Trump said on Friday the US will begin negotiations with China on a potential deal regarding TikTok. The President said “we pretty much have a deal. I think we are going to start Monday or Tuesday…”

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mexico Auto Exports (June)/ Auto Production (June)

· Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

· Brazil Car Production (June)/ New Car Registrations (June)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (June)

· USA Fed Balance Sheet (July/02)

· Colombia Inflation Rate (June)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· El Salvador Inflation Rate (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Solomon Islands Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Average Cash Earnings (May)/ Overtime Pay (May)/ Coincident Index (May)/ Leading Economic Index (May)

· Australia ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (June)

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Thailand Inflation Rate (June)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Chinese Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Philippines Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Eurogroup meets in Brussels. The agenda includes fiscal policy coordination, the growing international role of the euro, and Bulgaria’s engagement in the EU. The ministers will also elect a president for the next term.

· Poland will launch border controls with Germany to halt the flow of illegal migrants.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU labor ministers in Aalborg, Denmark.

· Polish President Andrzej Duga visits Prague for bilateral talks.

· German Foreign Minister Johan Wadepul will make a working visit to Prague.

· The France-Central European Countries and Ukraine Business Forum takes place in Paris, France.

· Today is the beginning of Paris Fashion Week for Haute Couture for the fall/winter season.

· Today is the Running of the Bulls, otherwise known as the annual Festival of San Fermin.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Deutsche Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel speaks on “The German economy: navigating cyclical fluctuations and boosting long-term growth” at the Ragnar Nurkse lecture in Tallinn, Estonia.

· Germany Industrial Production (May)

· Romania Retail Sales (May)

· Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (June)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (June)

· Hungary Retail Sales (May)

· France Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Slovakia Retail Sales (May)

· Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Euro Area Retail Sales (May)

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (June)

· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Tourist Arrivals (June)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Kuwait Private Bank Lending (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Heroes of Zambia Day, a national holiday honoring those who fought for the country’s independence.

· Today is Saba Day in Tanzania, a national holiday celebrating the unification of political parties seeing independence.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt S&P Global PMI (June)

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

Tuesday, July 8, 2025

Global

· The UN will host The AI for Good Global Summit 2025 in Geneva, Switzerland.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (June)/ Redbook (July/05)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)/ Consumer Credit Change (May)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (July/04)/ Used Car Prices (June)

· Brazil Retail Sales (May)

· Chile Inflation Rate (June)

· Argentina Industrial Production (May)

· Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· ASEAN Foreign Ministers will meet while also attending the East Asia Summit (which runs through Thursday) and the ASEAN Regional Forum in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. US Secretary of State Maco Rubio was set to attend as well as meet with his counterparts in side trips to Japan and South Korea but cancelled for focus on Middle East issues. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and the EU High Representative Vice President Kaja Kallas are expected to attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Current Account (May)/ Bank Lending (June)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (June)

· Philippines Unemployment Rate (May)/ Industrial Production (May)

· Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference/Australia NAB Business Confidence (June)

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (June)

· Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Brussels. Ministers will discuss the Stability and Growth Pact, the Danish Presidency work program, the Savings and Investment Union, and the Recovery and Resilience Facility.

· French President Emmanual Macron makes a head of state visit to London. Macron will be hosted by King Charles and Queen Camilla through Thursday. Macron will also address the British Parliament as part of an effort to strengthen UK-EU ties.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen will in an exchange of views with the EP Conference of Presidents on the next Multiannual Financial Framework.

· Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez addresses parliament over Socialist party corruption scandal .

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ireland Construction PMI (June)

· Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

· Hungary Inflation Rate (June)/ Budget Balance (June)

· France Imports/ Exports/Balance of Trade (May)/ Current Account (May)

· Greece Balance of Trade (May)

· Romania Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Tanzania Inflation Rate (June)

Wednesday, July 9, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Yemen).

· The OECD releases its Employment Outlook report for OECD member countries. The outlook will also include an analysis of declining fertility globally and its impact on future employment and economic growth.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump’s 90 day pause on “reciprocal tariffs” is set to expire.

· President Trump will host the Africa-US Leaders’ Summit in Washington, D.C. The heads of state from Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mauritania, and Senegal are expected to attend the conference which runs through July 11 and will focus on mutual economic opportunities and regional security.

· The 12th International Aeronautics Fair begins in Colombia.

· Today is Argentine Independence Day, a national holiday.

· Today is State Rebellion Day in Brazil.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Federal Reserve Board Open Market Meeting Minutes

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (July/04)/ Wholesale Inventories (May)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (July/04)/

· Mexico Inflation Rate (June)

· El Salvador PPI (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Taiwan will hold live-fire military drills as part of their annual Han Kuang exercise. The drill simulates a possible attack by China and lasts for ten days and will involve thousands of reservists.

· Today is Palau Constitution Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser gives a speech at the Australian Conference of Economists in Sydney/ RBA Chart Pack/ Building Permits (May)/ Private House Approvals (May)/ RBA Hunter Speech

· China Inflation Rate (June)/ PPI (June)

· New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

· Indonesia Retail Sales (May)/ Car Sales (June)/ Motorbike Sales (June)

· Japan Machine Tool Orders (June)

· Malaysia Interest Rate Decision

· India M3 Money Supply (June/27)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Germany Chancellor Friedrich Merz greets NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on a visit to Germany to celebrate the country’s 70th anniversary of its membership in NATO.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the keynote speech and participates in a Q&A on the monetary policy agenda at the House of the Euro in Brussels, Belgium.

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives closing remarks at the Cursos de Verano CEU-El Escorial "La Economía Española: realidad y perspectivas" in El Escorial, Spain.

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (May)

· Greece Inflation Rate (June)

· Great Britain BoE Financial Stability Report

· Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese Premier Li Qiang visits will visit Egypt for bilateral talks.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Consumer Confidence (June)

· Jordan GDP Growth Rate Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Namibia for talks on economic cooperation.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, July 10, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA). In the afternoon, it is scheduled to hold a briefing on ICC Sudan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Bahamas Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller entitled “Balance Sheet” at a Conversation with Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and the World Affairs Council of Dallas/Fort Worth, Dallas, Texas.

· Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary C. Daly will join MNI Connect for a virtual conversation on “The US Economic Outlook and Challenges for Policymakers.”

· St. Louis President Alberto Musalem speaks.

· Brazil Inflation Rate (June)

· USA Initial Jobless Claims (July/05)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (June/28)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (July)/Fed Balance Sheet (July/09)

· Mexico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Peru Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (May)

· Ecuador Balance of Trade (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Top military commanders from the US, South Korea, and Japan will meet in Seoul to discuss regional security issues, mostly focusing on North Korea’s nuclear weapons program..

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (May)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (July/05)/ PPI (June)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (July)

· South Korea Interest Rate Decision

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (June)

· Malaysia Unemployment Rate (May)

· Kazakhstan PPI (June)

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Environment Ministers in Brussels through July 11.

· The Ukraine Recovery Conference takes place in Rome through July 11. The meeting will be hosted by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen faces a European parliament no-confidence vote in latest challenge to the European Commission president, the first time since 2014 that the head of the commission has faced such a move. However, the vote will mainly be symbolic as she is expected to survive

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a lecture on "Ever changing payment landscape: What will a digital euro bring?" followed by a discussion with Vice Governor Marko Pahor organized by Banka Slovenije in Ljubljana, Slovakia.

· Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden gives the Annual Chapman-Barrigan Lecture entitled “Weathering the Storm: Stability in a Changing Climate” in London.

· Germany Inflation Rate (June)

· Romania Balance of Trade (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Slovakia Industrial Production (May)

· Turkey Industrial Production (May)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/04)

· Italy Industrial Production (May)

· Slovenia Industrial Production (May)

· Greece Industrial Production (May)

· Ireland Industrial Production (May)/ Inflation Rate (June)

· Serbia Interest Rate Decision

· Ukraine Inflation Rate (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Business Confidence (June)

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The African Union Executive Council will meet in Malabo, Equatorial Guinea through July 11.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Manufacturing Production (May)

· Egypt Inflation Rate (June)/ Core Inflation Rate (June)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

· Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q1

Friday, July 11, 2025

Global

· The International Energy Agency (IEA) July Oil Markets Report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump is expected to visit Texas to see the impact of recent catastrophic flash floods.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mexico Industrial Production (May)

· Canada Unemployment Rate (June)/ Employment Change (June)/ Participation Rate (June)/Average Hourly Wages (June)

· Brazil Business Confidence (July)

· USA WASDE Report/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (July)/ Monthly Budget Statement (June)

· Paraguay Balance of Trade (June)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (June)

· Singapore GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (April)

· Japan BoJ JGB Purchases

· Malaysia Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)

· Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

· Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/04)

· China Vehicle Sales (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a panel 'Integration of the Ukrainian Financial Sector into the European Internal Market' at Ukraine Recovery Conference (URC2025) in Rome, Italy.

· Germany Wholesale Prices (June)/ Current Account (May)

· Romania Inflation Rate (June)

· Great Britain GDP (May)/ Goods Trade Balance (May)/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Construction Output (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Manufacturing Production (May)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (June)

· France Inflation Rate (June)/ IEA Oil Market Report

· Slovakia Construction Output (May)

· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (June)

· Turkey Current Account (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Auto Production (June)/ Auto Sales (June)

· Serbia Inflation Rate (June)

· Belarus Inflation Rate (June)

· Russia Balance of Trade (May)/ Current Account Q2/ Inflation Rate (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Jordan Inflation Rate (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mozambique Inflation Rate (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Angola Inflation Rate (June)

Saturday, July 12, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Kiribati, a small island in the South Pacific which gained its independence from the UK in 1979.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, July 13, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the first anniversary of President Trump being shot at a rally in Pennsylvania.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· France celebrates Bastille Day.

· Today is Sovereignty Day in Montenegro, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 7/3/25 Francis Kelly 7/3/25

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Will Congress Pass OBBBA By Independence Day? Otherwise, Washington Is Going To Be Very Quiet This Week

June 30 - July 4, 2025

It is Independence Day on Friday, and that means not much is happening this week in Washington, other than the massive, marathon wrestling match taking place in Congress to move forward with passage of The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). President Trump has demanded that Congressional Republican leaders get a final package to his desk by July 4th for his signature. Will they do it? It is going to be close, but as of this writing, the Senate is about to vote on their bill and send it to the House. Our view is the House will ultimately take what the Senate sends them (or face the wrath of Trump). But it will be very close.

Otherwise, it will be a very quiet week in Washington, as none of the major regulators have any important meetings or policy speeches scheduled.

Looking at what happened last week, it was a busy one for the Federal Reserve. Fed Chair Jay Powell appeared before the House Financial Services Committee and then the Senate Banking Committee. Then the Fed published the results of the annual stress tests – all the major banks passed as expected. This came on the heels of the Fed, along with the FDIC, issuing a new proposal to modify the Enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio Standards. Additionally, the Fed announced it will hold a conference on large bank capital requirements on July 22.

Returning to Congress for a moment, we learned that the Senate will take up the GENIUS Act, creating a market structure for the cryptocurrency market, sometime in September when they return from the August recess. And speaking of crypto: the Federal Housing Finance Agency has directed the two mortgage giants, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, to develop proposals to consider a borrower’s crypto holdings as part of the underwriting process, which could be quite a shift for the housing market going forward.

We hope you have a wonderful 4th of July. And to our Canadian readers, we wish you a great Canada Day on Monday, as we celebrate our respective independence and liberty. Below are the very few events we could find happening this week in Washington among the regulators:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· There are no hearings scheduled this week in advance of the Independence Day holiday.

House of Representatives

· There are no hearings scheduled this week in advance of the Independence Day holiday.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Monday, June 30, 8:00 a.m. – Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy before an MNI Livestreamed Connect Video Conference.

· Tuesday, July 1, 9:30 a.m. GMT - Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell participates on a policy panel at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking 2025 in Sintra, Portugal.

· Monday, June 30, 11:00 a.m. – Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Aspen Ideas Festival 2025.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Thursday, July 3, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Wednesday, July 2, 2:45 p.m. UK time – CFTC Acting Chair Caroline D. Pham will participate in a fireside chat titled "A view from over the pond: the CFTC’s role in regulating digital assets" at City & Financial GlobalX’s City Week 2025 in London.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· Monday, June 30, 2:00 a.m. – The FTC holds a Listening Session on Lowering Americans’ Drug Prices Through Competition at the FTC Headquarters.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

Monday, July 30 – The Institute for International Bankers holds its 2025 Tax Conference in New York.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

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