The Global Week Ahead

Mexico’s Senate Holds Final Vote on Controversial Judicial Reform Bill; Trump and Harris Debate, and the ECB Makes A Tough Call on Interest Rates

September 9 - 13, 2024

Markets are nervously watching the Mexican government's legislative march toward making the judiciary an elected role rather than one that is appointed, from the Supreme Court on down.  Only one other nation elects its Supreme Court—Bolivia—and it did not turn out very well.  As the Economist reported this week, it's been a complete disaster, leading to a heavily politicized judiciary and several attempted coups.

Both the Canadian and US governments, via their ambassadors in Mexico City, have expressed their strong concerns, and businesses are worried contract law will become the domain of local politicians and drug cartels.  Despite widespread protests in opposition to the measure, the Mexican Senate is expected to ratify the measure this week following the Mexican lower House passing it last week.  The legislation is all part of outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's (AMLO) move to punish the Supreme Court for overturning several of his other highly controversial legislative efforts.  Interestingly, there is a good chance the Supreme Court will rule the legislation itself is unconstitutional, which will set up a very tense political scenario in Mexico City  (for an excellent brief on the situation, our friend Ryan Berg at the Center for Strategic and International Studies wrote a superb overview you can read  HERE).

Also this week, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris will meet for their first (and perhaps only) presidential debate Tuesday night.  The stakes could not be higher as most recent polling shows the two candidates locked neck-and-neck with two months to go before the elections.

Turning to the global economic radar screen this week, markets are cautiously watching the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday to see if the ECB lowers rates further or holds off as several EU countries – particularly Germany – struggle economically. 

Also this week, US inflation figures for August are released, hopefully further solidifying market expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin lowering rates when they meet the following week (September 18).  The debate has gotten a little heated this past week as to whether it would be a cut of 25 basis points or if the Fed would go big and cut 50 basis points.  Also, this week, the University of Michigan consumer survey comes out Friday, and most economists expect it to tick up slightly.

Looking at what else is going on in Europe this week aside from the ECB meeting, the UK releases July GDP figures, which will be important as the UK Parliament begins debating contentious legislation to cut household fuel subsidies this week. 

In Asia, China will have a big week, releasing inflation, trade, and overall economic activity figures—all coming after a recent report showing PMIs sagging.  Also, this week, Japan will release its Economy Watchers Survey and PPI figures. 

Below is what else we are watching closely around the world this coming week:

Sunday, September 8, 2024 

Global

·       The Paralympics’ closing ceremony is held in Paris.

·       The World Nomad Games begin in Kazakhstan.  Athletes compete in 21 different types of sports including Tug-of-War, Horseback Wrestling, Traditional Archery, Horseback Archery, Kok Boru (where horse riders from two teams compete to tear a goat’s carcass from the ground and break through the opposing team’s defenses and put it in the opponents goal), Mas-Wrestling (where two opponents sit opposite each other, resting their feet on a board between their feet, and pull on a stick. The one who pulls the stick or the other guy or both over the board wins), and more.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the deadline for Mexico’s government to present its 2025 budget proposal to Congress.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez begins an official visit to China through September 12.

·       Mozambican President Filipe Jacinto Nyusi will make an official visit to Vietnam through September. 10.  Additionally, Guinea-Bissau President Umaro Sissoco Embalo will also make a simultaneous visit.

·       Pope Francis will continue his Asia and Oceania tour by visiting Papua New Guinea through September 8.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture and Fisheries Ministers in Budapest, Hungary through September 10. In addition to the informal meeting of the ministers, there will be a number of programs offering an insight into Hungarian culture and gastronomy. On the 8th of September ministers and their delegations will be welcomed with a Danube cruise and an opening dinner in the House of Music Hungary.  The meeting will conclude on the September 10 with a kick-off debate on a farmer-focused post 2027 Common Agricultural Policy Towards a competitive, crisis-proof, sustainable, farmer-friendly and knowledge-based future EU agriculture at the Conference Hall of Várkert Bazaar.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 9, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the United Nations peacekeeping operations: Strengthening UN Peacekeeping: Reflections for the Future.

·       The Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency hold board meetings in Vienna, Austria. Board discussions are expected to focus on verification and monitoring in Iran in light of United Nations Security Council resolution 2231 (2015); application of safeguards in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea; nuclear safety, security and safeguards in Ukraine; transfer of the nuclear materials in the context of AUKUS and its safeguards in all aspects under the NPT; application of IAEA safeguards in the Middle East; and the restoration of sovereign equality of Member States in the IAEA.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Congress returns from August recess.

·       US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will meet with Vietnam’s Defense Minister Giang in Washington, D.C.

·       In Bolivia, widespread protests are expected all week.  Former President Evo Morales will be leading the efforts.

·       Apple holds its annual media event to launch their new products, including a new iteration of the iPhone.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

·       USA Wholesale Inventories (July)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)/ Consumer Credit Change (July)/ Used Car Prices (August)/ Total Vehicle Sales (August)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (July)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea will co-host the Responsible AI in the Military Domain Summit in Seoul.  Co-hosting will be Singapore, the Netherlands, Kenya, and the UK.  Representatives from the militaries and governments of more than 90 countries are expected to attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Current Account (July)/ GDP Growth Annualized Final Q2

·       Australia Building Permits Final (July)/ Private House Approvals Final (July)

·       China Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI (August)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Kazakhstan PPI (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Former European Central Bank President and Prime Minister of Italy Mario Draghi presents report on Europe's competitiveness with European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen.

·       Norway’s Prime Minister Jonas Gahr visits Beijing for meetings.  The visit marks the 70th anniversary of bilateral ties between the two countries.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture and Fisheries Ministers through September 10 in Budapest, Hungary.

·       European Commission Vice-President Margaritis Schinas will visit Armenia to take part in the launch of a visa liberalization dialogue with the European Union.

·       NATO holds Steadfast Foxtrot 24 military exercises in Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in a fireside chat at the Barclays Global Financial Conference in New York.

·       Ireland Construction PMI (August)/ Industrial Production (July)

·       Romania Balance of Trade (July)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

·       Hungary Budget Balance (August)

·       Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Hezbollah commemorates slain commander Fuad Shukr 40 days after Israeli strike near Beirut.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (August)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (August)

Tuesday, September 10, 2024

Global

·        The 79th session of the U.N. General Assembly will begin.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Ukraine.

·       National Security Advisors of the BRICS countries will meet in St. Petersburg, Russia to help plan for the BRICS+ Summit in Kazan, Russia in October.

·       OPEC’s Monthly Oil Report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris will participate in their first presidential debate.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (August)/ Redbook (September/07)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/06)

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (August)

·       Canada BoC Macklem Speech

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China's legislative Standing Committee will discuss various draft bills, including ones related to energy and anti-money laundering work, through September 13.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Manufacturing Sales Q2

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (September)/ NAB Business Confidence (August)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (July)/ Motorbike Sales (August)/ Car Sales (August)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (July)

·       Japan Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (August)/ Machine Tool Orders (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The UK Parliament begins debate over proposed cuts to the winter fuel payments plan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Inflation Rate Final (August)

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (July)/ Claimant Count Change (August)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (August)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (August)

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (July)

·       Spain Industrial Production (July)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ Participation Rate (July)

·       Italy Industrial Production (July)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (July)

·       Greece Inflation Rate (August)

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (August)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Jordan holds parliamentary elections.

·       Saudi Arabia hosts the Global Artificial Intelligence Summit  (GAIN) in Riyadh.  There will be more than 400 speakers, 20,000 participants with an expected 25 million online participants.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (July)

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (August)

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (August)

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production (July)

Wednesday, September 11, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on 1591 Committee (regarding the situation in the Sudan), followed by a briefing on 1591 Committee.  They are expected to vote on whether to renew sanctions.

·       G7 Labor Ministers meet through September 13 in Cagliari, Italy.

·       The International Energy Administration publishes the lates monthly oil report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Mexico’s Senate is expected to vote on the highly controversial judicial reform bill.  The lower House approved the bill on September 4.  Demonstrations are expected across Mexico City in opposition to the measure.

·       Microsoft will hold a cybersecurity summit in wake of CrowdStrike outage.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/06)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/06)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ CPI (August)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (September/06)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (July)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (August)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (July)

·       Peru Balance of Trade (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       SEMI (the international semiconductor industry group) will host the Semicon Exhibition in New Delhi, India through September 13.  The event is expected to draw more than 40,000 visitors and host more than 600 exhibitors.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (July)

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Australia RBA Hunter Speech/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Junko Nakagawa will give a speech in Akita, Japan.

·       China Vehicle Sales (August)/ New Yuan Loans (August)/ M2 Money Supply (August)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (August)/ Total Social Financing (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Union President Ursula von der Leyden will announce the new EU Commissioners.

·       There will be a pro-independence march today (Catalan Day) in Catalan, Spain.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates on a panel at the EUROFI Financial Forum in Budapest, Hungary.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates on a  panel discussion "Supervision and regulation – Followers or pacemakers in the "new world"? - Finding the future role of supervision and regulation" at BaFin Conference "SSM 2034 – an outlook" in Bonn, Germany.

·       Romania Inflation Rate (August)

·       Great Britain GDP (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July)/ Construction Output (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (August)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (July)

·       Turkey Retail Sales (July)

·       Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Russia Balance of Trade (July)/ Inflation Rate (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Balance of Trade (April)/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Balance of Trade (June)

Thursday, September 12, 2024

Global

·        The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Yemen).

·       The G20 Agriculture Ministers meet in Cuiaba, Brazil.

·       The UN’s One Planet Network Forum 2024, scheduled for September 12-13 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, will focus on reducing inequalities and achieving just transitions through sustainable consumption and production, highlighting the role of the circular economy. The event will bring together stakeholders from diverse sectors to discuss key topics including green skills, sustainable cities, circular economies, and sustainable public procurement.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Retail Sales (July)

·       Canada Building Permits (July)

·       USA Continuing Jobless Claims (August/31)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/07)/ PPI (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September/06)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/11)/ WASDE Report/ Monthly Budget Statement (August)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/11)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (August)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 11th Xiangshan Forum begins in Beijing and runs through September 14.  The high-level defense and security event brings together military leaders from around the world will attend to discuss the theme “Promoting Peace for a Shared Future.”  More than 30 defense ministers are expected to attend.

·       China’s International Fair for Trade in Services begins in Beijing and runs through September 16.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (August)/ Food Inflation (August)

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Naoki Tamura will give a speech in Okayama, Japan.

·       Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Q3/ Foreign Bond Investment (September/07)/ PPI (August)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/07)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (June)

·       Hong Kong Industrial Production Q2

·       India Industrial Production (July)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ Manufacturing Production (July)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (August)

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

The AI Regulation Forum begins in Brussels.  Policymakers from around Europe and the world will gather to discuss how AI should be regulated and how best to comply with existing laws.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Governing Council of the European Central Bank meets on interest rates in Frankfurt, Germany.  ECB President Christine Lagarde holds a press conference after the meeting.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates on a panel at the EUROFI Financial Forum in Budapest, Hungary.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Kerstin af Jochnick participates on a panel at the EUROFI Financial Forum in Budapest, Hungary.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates on a panel at the EUROFI Financial Forum in Budapest, Hungary.

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (August)/ BoE Breeden Speech

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (August)/ Current Account (July)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (August)

·       Turkey Current Account (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/06)

·       France IEA Oil Market Report

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (August)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Oman Inflation Rate (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Expectations Q3/ Gold Production (July)/ Mining Production (July)

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

Friday, September 13, 2024

Global

·       G20 Digital Ministers meet in Maceio, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. President Joe Biden will hold a meeting at the White House with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade/ Export Prices (August)/ Import Prices (August)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations Prel (September)/ Michigan Current Conditions Prel (September)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel (September)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/13)

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (July)/ Business Confidence (September)

·       Canada Capacity Utilization Q2/ Wholesale Sales Final (July)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Import Prices (August)/ Export Prices (August)

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (August)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Final Q2

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (September)/ Capacity Utilization (July)/ Industrial Production Final (July)

·       Sri Lanka GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/06)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup will meet in Budapest, Hungary.  They will discuss EU macroeconomic developments, get a debrief from the G7, and discuss the situation in Ukraine.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Economic and Financial Affairs Ministers in Budapest, Hungary through September 14. On Friday afternoon, EU ministers and central bank governors would discuss the issue of “sustainable financing of green transition”. The Secretary-General of OECD and the CEO of the Hungarian Government Debt Management Agency would provide presentations on how to bridge financing gap with innovative instruments, how to better mobilize household and other private savings when there is a need to enhance green transition and put public debt on a downward path simultaneously. The Saturday morning session will be devoted to “the effects of demographic changes on public debt sustainability”, where delegations will discuss debt sustainability risks in the context of aging societies and possible lines of action. This issue is a top priority for the Hungarian EU Presidency, as it put at risk the EU’s long-term economic prosperity due to shrinking working-age population and labor shortages.  The discussion will be based on the contribution of the Brussels-based think tank, Bruegel. During the ministerial working lunch the Managing Director of the IMF will outline “the new financing opportunities in supporting low-income countries in their response to global challenges”. 

·       The NATO Military Committee Conference will begin in Prague, Czech Republic and run through September 15. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Romania Industrial Production (July)/ Current Account (July)

·       Hungary Construction Output (July)/ Industrial Production Final (July)

·       France Inflation Rate Final (August)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (August)

·       Euro Area Industrial Production (July)

·       Greece Construction Output Q2

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

·       Poland Balance of Trade (July)/ Current Account (July)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (August)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (August)

Saturday, September 14, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China House Price Index (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ NBS Press Conference

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates in a fireside chat at the Open Day 2024 of Deutsche Bundesbank in Frankfurt, Germany. 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 15, 2024 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua all celebrate their respective Independence Days today.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 56th ASEAN Economic Ministers Meet  (AEM) takes place in Vientiane, Laos.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China FDI (YTD) (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Romania holds presidential elections. Independent candidate Mircea Geoană is estimated to secure the most votes, followed closely by the Prime Minister and leader of the Social Democrat Party (PSD), Marcel Ciolacu.

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz begins his first trip to Central Asia with visits to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.  The trip comes after Scholz hosted the leaders of five central Asian nations in Berlin in 2023 to discuss closer cooperation and to find a way to pry away growing relations these nations are building with Russia and China.  Scholz will take part in the C5+1 meeting in Kazakhstan (the C5 being Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan). 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area ECB Buch Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (August) / Wholesale Prices (August)

·       Israel Inflation Rate (August)/ M1 Money Supply (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Students in Nigeria will hold nationwide protests over rising fuel prices.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.