Recommended Weekend Reads
Mexico's Judicial Reform Risk, Bad Best on "Peak China," and Germany's Economic Challenge
September 6 - 8, 2024
Latin America
AMLO’s Plan C and the North American Bloc, If We Can Keep It Center for Strategic and International Studies
As Mexico’s president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) begins his final month in office, he has started a farewell tour of the country and launched his last crusade to cement his legacy. Driven by a mélange of revenge and a sense of unfinished business, the president has pushed a series of constitutional reforms introduced in early 2024 as a sweeping package referred to as “Plan C.” (Plans A and B failed to pass in Mexico’s Congress or were ruled unconstitutional by the courts.) Among other things at stake are the independence of Mexico’s regulatory bodies, Mexico’s electoral agency (which serves as an exemplar in Latin America), and the independence of Mexico’s judicial branch. Thus, it is not hyperbole to say that Mexico’s ability to continue playing a starring role as a strategic partner in economic security initiatives and near-shoring could evaporate in the wake of Plan C’s passage.
Electing Top Judges Has Been A Disaster in Bolivia The Economist
Bolivia is the only country in the world that elects its top judges. Mexico may soon join the club. Yet Bolivia’s experience has been disastrous. The courts have become a prize to control, the opposite of being a neutral arbiter. President Luis Arce, who took office in 2020, and a former president, Evo Morales, both want to be the ruling party’s candidate in the presidential election next year. They know the courts may ultimately decide who it will be. That has set off a fierce fight to control them. Last year, the opposition accused Mr. Arce’s government of torpedoing judicial elections that should have happened in 2023 so as to maintain its influence in the courts. The battle poisoned Bolivian politics so badly that it opened the door to a coup attempt by power-hungry soldiers.
What Happens When Half a Million People Abandon Their City New York Times
It was once a thriving metropolis in the heart of Venezuela’s oil country. About a quarter of the residents (eight million people) of Maracaibo, Venezuela’s second-largest city, have moved away — and more are expected to soon follow. The reason? Political repression at the hands of President Nicolás Maduro and economic destruction from Maduro’s reign of power.
2024 Venezuela Election Protests: Harsher Repression at Home and More Global Reach Than in 2019 ACLED
One month after the 28 July presidential elections, Venezuelans demonstrated at home and abroad to demand electoral authorities publish the election tally sheets among wide-spread evidence of massive election fraud. Just as in 2019 following the last elections which saw wide-spread fraud, Venezuelans have protested against President Nicholás Maduro’s fraud. Inside Venezuela, at least 22 protesters have been killed, mostly by pro-government militias, and over 2,400 people arrested during anti-government demonstrations since the election results were announced. Outside Venezuela, ACLED records almost nine times more demonstrations supporting the opposition and rejecting the election results than in 2019. This reflects both the number of Venezuelans who have fled the country, which has more than doubled since then, and stronger support for an opposition that has shown greater unity and organization.
China
Organizing American Policy Around “Peak China” is a Bad Bet Ryan Hass/China Leadership Monitor
Our friend and colleague, Ryan Hass, writes how China’s leaders confront mounting internal and external headwinds to their country’s continuing rise. At home, Beijing’s economic engine is sputtering. Abroad, countries are pushing back against Chinese attempts to export its way to economic growth. On the security front, countries are banding together to guard against China’s expansion in military capabilities. This confluence of challenges has caused some American analysts to declare the end of China’s rise and warn that Beijing could lash out militarily before it begins its downturn in national power. China’s leaders explicitly reject suggestions that the country’s best days are behind it. They believe China’s path to greater global influence is widening as America’s dominance in the international system wanes. It would be a mistake to organize American policy around “peak China” theory. The United States and China are locked in a long-term competition for global influence. This competition ultimately will turn on national performance. That is where America’s policy focus must reside for the United States to preserve its privileged position in the world.
Global Trade
Trade Wars, Tech Rivalry and Geopolitical Tensions Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis “On the Economy” Blog
In the last decade, escalating trade wars, technological rivalry and growing geopolitical tensions have shaped the global economic landscape. The U.S.-China trade dispute, concerns over technological supremacy and shifting alliances have dominated headlines and policy discussions, emphasizing the importance of geopolitical alliance in an increasingly volatile global economy. The authors offer three key figures using 2015 data to shed light on the relationship between geopolitical distance and international trade patterns before the recent escalation of global economic tensions. They also offer some interesting insights into the role of tax have countries and the relevance of geopolitical distance growing in global technology trade.
Africa and the Race for Control of Critical Minerals
Maximizing the Benefits of the Renewed Global Interest in Africa’s Strategic Minerals Carnegie Endowment
Negotiations between African governments and foreign investors are often characterized by the various skills, technical capacities, and information asymmetries that shape the balance of power and influence outcomes. The dynamics of these negotiations—in pursuing extractive and infrastructure projects, in particular—merit a special focus, as agreements to carry them out often bind African countries for several decades. Africa is home to a substantial share of the world’s reserves of mineral resources needed for the clean energy transition and could therefore be the main theater for the global race among China, the United States, European countries, Persian Gulf countries, and others to secure access. The International Energy Agency estimates that manufacturers of clean energy technologies will need forty times more lithium, twenty-five times more graphite, and about twenty times more nickel and cobalt in 2040 than in 2020.
Europe
Germany’s Growth Model is Broken Mark Sobel/Taylor Pearce – OMFIF
The German economy, Europe’s largest, has stagnated since the end of the pandemic. Recent data hardly give rise to optimism about its near-term prospects and the stagnation has reinforced malaise among German society – especially in the economically weaker former German Democratic Republic states, as evidenced by 1 September elections in Thuringia and Saxony. Debates are now swirling, even if improbable, about whether the current governing coalition can remain intact through its term. But the economy’s roadblocks are far more than cyclical. They are deep-seated and structural and were manifesting themselves even prior to Covid-19. Is Germany becoming once again the ‘sick man of Europe’?
Germany and Europe Can Boost Security by Reforming Capital Markets German Council on Foreign Affairs
Poorly developed capital markets in Germany and across the European Union (EU) hurt European security. Reforming them can foster economic dynamism, reduce harmful dependencies, and enhance Europe’s military edge. If German and EU politicians took a strategic view, they would clearly see the need to overcome fragmentation in the financial sector, increase risk appetite, incentivize private investment in innovation, and optimize regulation to meet economic and security needs.