If you are interested in having Frank speak at one of your conferences or meetings, please email him at fkelly@fulcrummacro.com. And if you would like to see a sizzle reel of Frank speaking and moderating panels and discussions, we are happy to send one upon request.
Fulcrum Macro Advisors in the Media
Watch, listen to, and read Fulcrum Macro Advisors Founder and Managing Partner Frank Kelly’s latest insights via his presentations, interviews, publications, and other media.
The Clearing House Annual Conference 2024
I Will Be Moderating An All-Star Panel Entitled:
“The Votes Are In: Reviewing the 2024 Election Cycle, Outcomes, and the Road Ahead
I’m delighted to have been asked to moderate an All-Star panel of John Heilemann, Mark McKinnon, and Jennifer Palmieri at the upcoming Clearing House Annual Conference 2024. on November 13th in New York.
You can find out more about the conference HERE.
I had a great conversation with Bloomberg Columnist John Authers (who is also Bloomberg’s senior editor for Markets) Thursday about former President Donald Trump’s tariff proposal and its potential impact on domestic prices, geopolitics, and the elections. Below is an excerpt of what I had to say. You can read the full interview and Authers’ column HERE.
Fortune Magazine: The US Dollar is Weakening Because Some Investors Think Kamala Harris Will Win
August 21, 2024 - Fortune Magazine interviewed me about the “Trump Trade” - is it fading because markets are starting to factor in a likely Kamala Harris victory in November.
The story's genesis is a Macquarie research note suggesting, “The current weakness of the US dollar can be attributed to the unwinding of the “Trump Trade,” which had been built on the premise of more inflation and higher interest rates in the US, which would support the USD.
I took the opposite side of this view. Here is what I had to say:
“Backing off from the Trump trade seems to indicate that at least some investors are losing faith in Trump’s chances come November. However, with several months to go until the election, any outcome is far from a foregone conclusion. Especially in a race such as this year’s that was so recently upended, according to Frank Kelly, senior political strategist at investment firm DWS. “July was Trump’s month, August was Harris’ month, and September is going to be an all-out brawl,” he said.
Throughout the early days of her campaign, Harris has been relatively vague on policy. However, she’s started rolling out more of them over the last week. So far, her economic views include advocating for regulations against excessive price increases on consumer goods, building more housing stock, and eliminating taxes on tips (an idea first introduced by Trump).
The Harris campaign has telegraphed that will change over the coming weeks. The ongoing Democratic National Convention could serve as a starting point for a broader policy rollout. Kelly, the political strategist, thinks once that happens the election campaign will move into its next phase. “Now they’ll start battering each other with policy issues rather than it being personal,” he said.
You can read the full article HERE.
Reuters: As Democrats gather, investors gauge market impact from a Harris administration
August 21, 2024 - Reuters interviewed me to understand Vice President Harris’s economic and regulatory policy views. My thoughts:
“She seems to be on track to be more aggressive than the Biden Administration on a lot of these consumer issues that go right to the market,” said Frank Kelly, senior political strategist at investment firm DWS Group, citing Harris’ recent economic proposals and her record as a U.S Senator and California Attorney General.
You can read the full interview HERE.
Reuters: Trump’s bitcoin stockpile plan stirs debate
August 6, 2024 - Reuter’s reporters Medha Singh and Lisa Mattackal wrote a brilliant piece on the intersection of Bitcoin and the presidential elections, taking a deep dive into former President Donald Trump’s proposal to create a federal Bitcoin stockpile.
I was delighted to be interviewed for the commentary. My assessment was this is a much more complicated issue than many may understand. I pointed out that this could end up being like the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, where both the President and Congress have varying amounts of control.
Indeed, over the years, Congress has regularly “raided’ the SPR, forcing the sale a portions of it to use the proceeds to help fund budget proposals (much like Congress raiding the Social Security program over the years, too).
You can read the full commentary and more on my assessment of the proposal HERE.
Business Insider: 3 Election Trades to Boost your Portfolio Regardless of a Harris or Trump Win
August 4, 2024 — Markets are struggling to understand the potential implications of the November Presidential elections and which sectors are safest and which are no-goes. Business Insider wrote a piece interviewing DWS Chief Investment Officer David Bianco, Amanda Rebello, Head of DWS’ Xtrackers ETF Sales, and me.
As I told BI, I “believe that the Big Tech-friendly policies Biden spearheaded, such as the CHIPS Act, are here to stay. "The CHIPS Act, in particular, was bipartisan…”
I went on to point out that with continued government support coming from across the aisle in Congress and hefty AI capital expenditures, the Big Tech and AI investment theme is a durable one this election season.
We discussed the potential impact on the dollar. My view is although Trump has been critical of a strong US dollar — saying that it makes US exports less competitive on the global market — the dollar would likely rise under his policies. If Trump wins, tax cuts will provide a boost to corporate America and increase consumer spending. This fiscal stimulus should result in decreased market volatility, in Rebello's opinion. Increased deficits as a result of tax cuts could lead to higher interest rates, which will, in turn, push up the dollar's value.
If Harris wins, the dollar will strengthen for different reasons. More diplomatic foreign policy and trade relations will ease geopolitical tensions, increasing trust in the US dollar as the world's reserve currency. A strong economic backdrop will ensure that the dollar remains a safe haven currency for international investors. For US investors, more purchasing power means that international stocks will be a bargain investment.
You can read the full interview HERE.
Aspire Magazine
U.S. Elections: The Policy Choice
Summer 2024 - Aspire Magazine, a publication of Neuberger Berman’s Private Bank, interviewed me on the upcoming November elections. The U.S. presidential election continues to heat up, with new surprises seemingly around every corner - from a criminal conviction to an assassination attempt to the late withdrawal of the incumbent, Joe Biden. With Vice President Kamala Harris now the almost certain nominee, the contest has become even more volatile as a closely divided nation inches toward November. In contrast, the policy views informing that remain relatively stable. I offered an assessment of the views of both sides, noting meaningful contrasts, but common ground as well.
You can read the full interview HERE.
Handelsblatt: What Do We Know About Kamala Harris’ Policy Views
August 3, 2024 - Handelsblatt, one of Germany’s largest newspapers with a large global circulation, interviewed me about Vice President Kamala Harris’ economic policy views. Voters, in general, and the financial markets, in particular, are eager to understand how Harris’ positions have changed in the last four years since she ran for President in 2020, from when she was a U.S. Senator before that and during her prior role as California Attorney General.
Harris previously supported taxing stock and bond trades (both for individuals and institutions), taxing couples 4 percent earning $100,000 or more to pay for universal healthcare, and opposed the re-confirmation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
You can read the full interview HERE.
Fortune Magazine - There’s a ‘very low probability’ Trump or Harris will reappoint Jerome Powell as Fed chair, political strategist says
July 30, 2024 - I was pleased to have the opportunity to talk with Fortune Magazine about the future of the Federal Reserve in light of the 2024 Presidential elections. Below are excerpts from the piece quoting me. And HERE is the link to the full Fortune story.
Barron’s - The World Feels Unstable. How to Invest for Deglobalization
July 22, 2024 — Investors are growing increasingly anxious and worried about what will happen if former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris wins the White House in November. I was delighted to be interviewed by Barron’s on what markets should watch for in the coming months. You can read the full interview HERE.
National Credit Union Management Association Summer Conference
Nassau, Bahamas
July 19, 2024 - It was a fantastic honor to be invited to speak at the National Credit Union Management Association in Nassau, Bahamas. The NCUMA is the preeminent organization focused on the critical management, risk, and development of credit union executives. This is the second time I’ve had the chance to speak at a NCUMA event and I can tell you, they are some of the most fantastically well-run events I’ve ever attended. Thank you for having me!
Handelsblatt Interviews on Market Impact of Assassination Attempt on Former President Trump and the Election Outlook
July 14, 2024 - I was pleased to be interviewed twice this week by Handelsblatt, Germany’s largest newspaper, on the likely impact of the failed assassination attempt on former President Trump on the financial markets and then a general overview of what we can expect in November.
My view is the assassination attempt will likely do two things: 1) It will contribute to a new sympathetic view of Trump by Republicans who are lukewarm on him, and 2) There is a good chance Trump will use this historic moment to present himself in a new way, a unifier of the nation - a re-branding of sorts of Trump by Trump.
Since my interview, former President Trump has indeed come out saying the shooting has changed him and that he wants to be a unifier. He announced that he tore up his already written acceptance speech and wrote a new speech. We will see—the race now appears to be Trump’s to lose. But we still have more than three months to go until election day. And anything is possible with the speech and constancy of change in recent months in the US election outlook.
The Iowa Farm Bureau’s
The Spokesman Speaks Podcast
Episode 164 - July 1, 2024
I was delighted to be interviewed for the Iowa “The Spokesman Speaks” Podcast recently while I was in Des Moines, Iowa. We spoke of geopolitical factors impacting farmers and how the agricultural sector could take advantage of the massive economic and political shifts we are seeing worldwide, particularly in China and India. You can listen to the podcast HERE.
Iowa Farm Bureau 2024 Economic Summit
Des Moines, Iowa
June 14, 2024 - I was delighted to speak this past Friday at the Iowa Farm Bureau’s 2024 Economic Summit. The Farm Bureau put together a dynamite line-up of speakers, and I was honored to be included among them. It was especially great listening to Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President & CEO Austan Goolsbee and his views on the economy, particularly with regard to the agricultural sectors.
You can find my full presentation HERE. And below is one page on India and the massive potential it is likely to offer American farmers.
Minnesota Bankers Association Annual Summit
Brainerd, Minnesota
June 10, 2024 — It was my great pleasure to address the Minnesota Bankers Association on the geopolitics driving the race for global tech dominance and development.
Bankers in the Midwest are, in our view, particularly well-positioned to take advantage of the nearly $1 trillion in Federal spending aimed at encouraging semiconductor manufacturing, alternative energy development, and critical mineral mining. Minnesota is a fantastic example of this opportunity: Mineral rich, a beautiful place to live, great educational facilities, and a cost of living that most folks on either Coast would love to have.
It was a wonderful conversation, and I’m hoping it gave the Minnesota Bankers Association members food for thought on how they can help drive this investment to their state. You can see my presentation HERE.
Iowa Association of Business and Industry’s Taking Care of Business Conference 2024
Davenport, Iowa
June 6, 2024 - Business is booming in Iowa. If you think farming is the sole economic driver of the state’s economy, think again. Big Tech has moved in force, with Amazon, Google, and other mega-players growing their businesses rapidly. The Association of Business and Industry in Iowa (ABI) is right on top of it all, smartly bringing together business leaders together to plan and execute on keeping the Iowa Economic Machine Moving. That’s what made speaking at this event so much fun - a very broad and experienced group of leaders looking at the world, the politics in the US, and economic policy carefully to make it all happen. Thank you, ABI, for letting me participate in this great event!
For those interested, you can find my presentation HERE.
134th Annual Missouri Bankers Association Convention
Branson, Missouri
June 5, 2024 - Branson, Missouri, has it all: Beautiful landscapes, great food and entertainment, and a first-class convention center where the 134th Annual Missouri Bankers Convention was held. The bankers of the “Show Me State” were out in force, and we had an excellent conversation about all things geopolitics, US elections, the state of the US economy - and when the Fed might cut rates. Thank you, MBA, for having me out to speak to your members. Branson was such a great experience!
For those interested, you can access my presentation HERE.
Maryland Bankers Association/Virginia Bankers Association 2024 Joint Convention
Amelia Island, Georgia
June 3, 2024 - Who doesn’t like going to Amelia Island? What a wonderful venue, only surpassed by the 500 bankers from Maryland and Virginia who are dedicated to the growth and security of their clients. The speakers were superb - and I was honored to follow Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan.
You can access my presentation HERE.
SACRS Conference Santa Barbara, California
May 8, 2024 - The State Association of County Retirement Systems (SACRS) Spring Conference was held in Santa Barbara, California, this year, and I had the honor of being the keynote opening session. It was actually a really fun fireside chat moderated by Kellie DeMarco - a three-time Emmy Award-winning journalist who now runs a brilliant consulting firm, Kelli DeMarco Communications. The topic of our discussion was “ How Elections, Markets, & Demographics Are Rapidly Changing Everything.”
With 2024 proving to be a historic year, 76 elections are taking place around the world, and more than 4 billion people are likely to vote, all while seismic economic policy shifts are taking place around the world and in the US. There is a lot for pension fund managers to consider. We had a great conversation, and Kelli was fantastic in making sure we dove deep into the issues and ideas driving today’s world and markets. My deepest thanks to SACRS for having me and to Kelli for making the event stellar!
The Corn Belt Power Cooperative Annual Meeting
April 3, 2024 - Fort Dodge, Iowa - It was my distinct honor to speak at the Annual meeting of the Corn Belt Power Cooperative. As the CBPC reported to its members, “Kelly, drawing from his extensive experience as a senior executive on Wall Street and in senior government roles, offered profound insights into the global policy landscape and its ramifications on markets worldwide. His perspective enriched the discourse surrounding public policy decision-making and its implications for the cooperative’s trajectory.”
CFA Society of Mexico: The Coming Mexican and U.S. Elections and Future Challenges and Opportunities for The Rest of the Western Hemisphere
March 19, 2024—Frank was delighted to speak to the CFA Society of Mexico in Mexico City on the challenges and opportunities the coming elections in Mexico and the U.S. offer. He also covered the geopolitical and geoeconomic landscape and their implications for global markets. Frank also spoke of the many new opportunities and existing challenges for the Western Hemisphere in 2024 and beyond.
UBS Wealth Management Election Watch 2024
April 12, 2024 - Frank joined Solita Marcelli, Chief Investment Officer Americas for UBS Global Wealth Management, for a look at how the 2024 elections are shaping and their potential impact on markets. Also joining the conversation were Carlyle Group Founder and Chair David Rubenstein and former Director of the National Security Agency, Admiral Mike Rogers, USN (Ret.)
DWS Washington Analysis BiWeekly Calls with Frank Kelly
April 30, 2024—Listen to Frank’s biweekly Zoom call with hundreds of DWS clients. The calls are held every other week on Tuesdays at 11:00 a.m. EST. During this week’s call, Frank takes clients’ questions and discusses the geopolitical and US policy issues impacting markets and your portfolio.
To listen to Frank (and other senior DWS thought leaders and advisors), click HERE and scroll down to Frank’s calls.
Will India Become A Key Destination for Ag Exports?
February 21, 2024—Frank was honored to speak before the Iowa Soybean Association in Des Moines, Iowa, about how trade is rapidly shifting in the wake of the Ukraine War, US-China tensions, and the prospect of India becoming a massive new opportunity for America’s soybean farmers.
Apropos - A Ness & Associates Podcast
The Latest in Geopolitics and the Chaos in D.C
October 23, 2023—In this engaging episode of Apropos, presented by Ness & Associates and CFA Society New York, esteemed guest Kelly delves into a compelling discussion on "The Latest in Geopolitics and the Chaos in D.C." and its consequential impacts on global financial markets.
You can listen to the Podcast HERE.
CFA Society of New York: “Why Policy Uncertainty Will Impact a Lot - Not Just Banking”
October 6, 2023 — Frank joined the CFA Society of New York’s Podcast “Compound Insights” to discuss how political and regulatory risk globally is putting new pressures on markets. They also discussed the domestic political and regulatory agenda and what it might mean for financial services in 2024.
Neuberger Berman Wealth Management Insights:
Elections 2024 - Opening Salvos
July 20, 2023— With U.S. presidential primaries starting in six months, major policy issues impacting markets and investors are coming into sharper focus. In this print interview with Neuberger Berman Private Wealth Insights Magazine, Frank walks readers through what to expect and what it will mean for investors.
You can read the full interview HERE.
SumZero Podcast Global Macro Discussion with Frank Kellly and Manoj Ramnani
April 28, 2023— Frank joined Manoj Ramnani, Chief Investment Officer of 93 East Capital, in the ever-evolving landscape across global markets. We discuss the upcoming FOMC meeting, recent banking sector stress, geopolitical maneuvering in Europe, the Middle East, and APAC, and the upcoming U.S. election season.
CFA Society of Boston Podcast
February 17, 2022 — The CFA Society Boston hosted Frank to discuss critical issues in public policy, global markets, and macroeconomics. In this timely presentation (which notably took place just mere days ahead of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine), Frank shared his outlook on the current regulatory environment in the U.S., fiscal policy, the 2022 mid-term elections, and, rather fortuitously, the geopolitical landscape.
Institutional Investor:
A Fireside Chat with Frank Kelly - Where Are Geo-Politics Taking Investors?
April 2022—Frank, the Senior Political Strategist at DWS, sat down for a virtual “fireside chat” with Institutional Investor. Frank discussed the most significant ways the evolving geopolitical landscape may impact investors in 2023 and beyond.
Bloomberg: Wall Street Braces for More Rules With Trump-Era FDIC Chief Gone
January 4, 2022 - Bloomberg News interviewed me about the likely changes coming in 2022 to financial regulation - everything from bank mergers to cryptocurrency to climate change. Bloomberg wrote:
Frank Kelly, a political analyst who runs Fulcrum Macro Advisors, said the resignation removes the last bit of Republican opposition among Washington’s main Wall Street overseers, clearing the way for a flurry of new rules. “It not only gives the administration the final agency seat it didn’t have but allows for greater coordination going forward,” Kelly said. “Watch for the Biden financial regulators to begin executing this year on the ambitious agendas they laid out in 2021.”
You can read the full interview HERE.
American- German Institute
AGI Asks: What is Angela Merkel’s Impact on the Global Economy
June 1, 2021—The American-German Institute is a leading institution dedicated to policy research and scholarship on the most important political, economic, and security issues confronting Germany and the United States in the global arena. As German Chancellor Angela Merkel steps down after many years, the AGI asked seven leading experts about Merkel’s lasting impact on the global economy. Frank Kelly offers his views of Merkel, who will undoubtedly go down in history as one of Germany’s greatest leaders.
Along with Frank, you can read the thoughts and assessments of Adam Posen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics; Claudia Schmucker, Head of the Geo-Economics Program at the German Council on Foreign Relations; Holger Schmiedling, Chief Economist of Berenberg Bank, Kris Bledowski, Chief Economist of the Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation, Michael Hüther, Director and Member of the Executive Committee of the German Economic Institute, and Stormy-Annika Mildner, Executive Director of the Aspen Institute Germany.
You can read the full article HERE.
Deutsche Bank’s Podzept Podcast
Biden After 100 Days
May 5, 2021 - In a new Podzept podcast, Frank Kelly, Head of Governmental and Public Affairs, US & Latam Brett Ryan, Senior US Economist, and Luke Templeman, Thematic Analyst, discuss the US economy, in particular, what President Biden has done in his first 100 days in office, including the enormous fiscal stimulus package. Is the package politically possible as Washington looks forward to mid-term elections next year?
You can listen to the Podcast HERE.
UBS Trending
The War in Ukraine: Questions Answered
March 15, 2022 - Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues, and so do the questions: What is Putin's end-game? What happens if he succeeds, and what happens if he’s defeated? Frank is interviewed by UBS on what to watch for and what we can expect.
Investment News: Passage of Infrastructure Bill Could Mean More Spending in Future
October 21, 2021 - I was honored to speak at the Schwab Impact 2021 Conference. I heavily focused on the pending Infrastructure bill in the CHIPS Act in Congress. Here is what I had to say:
Catholic University of America’s Busch School of Business CEO Lecture
September 29, 2021 - I was delighted to speak to the CUA School of Business on the role of political risk in CEO decision-making. CUA is an outstanding school, and I was blown away — so much so that I agreed to start teaching there. The pay may not be much, but the ability to interact with so many smart, enthusiastic students is unrivaled in terms of excitement and hope!
You can watch my lecture HERE.
DiMeo Schneider & Associates L.L.C.:
How the 2020 Elections Could Impact Nonprofit Investors
November 18, 2020 — With the 2020 Elections mostly over, what do investors, nonprofits, and charitable organizations need to consider in managing their portfolios? To explore the answer, Deutsche Bank's Head of Global & Public Affairs, Frank Kelly, discusses the impact the elections could have on investors, especially those in the nonprofit sector. In this episode, you will learn: - What the election results mean for the economy and nonprofits - How stocks and bonds might react and a potential silver lining - Answers to common questions about the future of the nonprofit world - The impact of the election on nonprofits and their endowment investments
CFA Society of Detroit
The View From Washington
November 11, 2020 — Frank Kelly, Head of Government & Public Affairs and Chief Political Strategist for Deutsche Bank, for a post-election discussion on the political landscape and possible market, tax, and economic effects for our society.
Egan Berger & Weiner: View From Washington 2020 Presentation
December 19, 2019 — Frank presented at the Egan, Berger & Weiner’s “2019 Back to School Night), discussing the issues and events most likely to impact investors, markets, and the world.