If you are interested in having Frank speak at one of your conferences or meetings, please email him at fkelly@fulcrummacro.com. And if you would like to see a sizzle reel of Frank speaking and moderating panels and discussions, we are happy to send one upon request.
Fulcrum Macro Advisors in the Media
Watch, listen to, and read Fulcrum Macro Advisors Founder and Managing Partner Frank Kelly’s latest insights via his presentations, interviews, publications, and other media.
Be sure to follow Frank and Fulcrum Macro Advisors on X, SubStack, LinkedIn, and Instagram. Also, be sure to check out the Fulcrum Macro Advisors YouTube Channel to see Frank's latest presentations, media interviews, and moderated talks.
CFA Society Austin Annual Dinner 2025
AT&T Hotel and Conference Center
February 20, 2025 - 5:30 p.m.
February 20, 2025 - I am really looking forward to being the keynote speaker at the upcoming 2025 Annual CFA Society of Austin Annual Dinner!
I” 'm speaking on behalf of DWs, where I serve as a Senior Political Strategist. Austin is one of my favorite cities, and I’m honored to have the opportunity to speak to the large, vibrant CFA community at their annual dinner. This is going to be a lot of fun! Thank you, CFA Society Austin and DWS, for making this happen!
And if you want to join us at the dinner, registration is still open. Go to the CFA’s website and register today! See you soon!
Capital Account
The Outlook for Financial Regulation as Trump Takes Office
January 18, 2025
I was delighted to be interviewed by Washington’s best financial reporter, Rob Schmidt, for his overview of how the new Trump Administration will impact financial regulation and Wall Street in general. Below are excerpts from my interview. I cannot recommend Rob’s publication enough - it is the pinnacle of excellent, cutting-edge reporting and the one place to go to understand the intersection of Wall Street and Washington.
Northwestern Mutual/McGill Junge Wealth Management
“Ask the Experts: Global Economic Outlook 2025 Webinar”
December 17, 2025 - I was delighted to once again join my dear friend, Ed McGill, in discussing the state of the global economy and the geopolitical outlook in 2025, what we might expect from the incoming Trump Administration in its first 100 days, and what sectors will likely most be impacted, and how investors can best prepare.
Thank you, Ed, for having me back! Ed’s team is a powerhouse wealth management firm, managing billions for investors all around the U.S. On top of all that, Ed and his partner, Ross Junge, have assembled a team of super-stars. An amazing operation!
UBS Trending
What Might Trump’s First 100 Days Look Like?
On behalf of DWS, I was delighted to be a guest on UBS Trending, the outstanding and highly informative interview program hosted by the great Anthony Pastore. We discussed what the first 100 days of the Trump Administration might look like and how this is more like Trump 4.0 instead of Trump 2.0 - meaning, President Trump has used the last four years to learn, study, and prepare for this term in office. But, he is also moving at a rate of speed like no other newly elected president because he fully understands he is also a Lame Duck. You can watch the full interview below. Thank you, UBS, for having me, and thank you, DWS, for arranging this tremendously fun interview!
THE LINK TO THE INTERVIEW IS HERE.
Macro Hive: Frank Kelly on Why Everyone Underestimates Trump
December 5, 2024 — It was terrific fun to be invited by my old colleague and friend, Bilal Hafeez, on his Macro Hive Podcast. In this wide-ranging discussion, we discussed Reagan vs. Trump, Why Trump won the 2024 election, It is Trump 4.0, not Trump 2.0!, Views on cabinet picks from Bessent to Hegseth, Thoughts on DOGE and Musk, Tax policy, US vs. Europe/China/Mexico/Canada, Likely policy on Ukraine, Middle East, and China. And we finished it off by talking about my favorite books: Animal Farm (Orwell), Gates of Fire (Pressfield), Rise Of Theodore Roosevelt (Morris)
Bilal has built Macro Hive into a powerhouse boutique research firm based in London. He did all this after a very distinguished career on Wall Street and other major markets around the world. His resume is amazing: He was Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura between 2016 and 2019 and held various senior roles at Deutsche Bank between 2002 and 201,5, including Head of Multi-Asset Research, Advisor to the CEO, Head of Asia Research in Singapore, and Global Head of Foreign Exchange Research. Bilal started his career at JP Morgan in 1998 and was rated the #1 market strategist by Euromoney and Institutional Investor between 2004 and 2013.
You can watch the full interview below. Thank you, Bilal! It was a true honor and really fun talking with you!
Handelssblatt
Paul Atkins: The future chief is the crypto industry’s preferred candidate
December 5, 2024 - I was honored and delighted to be interviewed by Handelsblatt, one of Germahy’s largest newspapers, on the nomination of my old and great friend, Paul Atkins, as the new Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exhange Commission.
As I told the reporter:
“He is considered a prudent and smart regulator. “He is very thorough and careful and looks at regulatory risks from every angle,” says Frank Kelly, founder of the consulting firm Fulcrum Macro Advisors, who knows him well. “
Congratulations, Paul! you are going to be an outstanding SEC Chair!
You can read the full article HERE.
The FLAR XXXVIII Conference of Central Banks and Official Institutions
Cartagena, Colombia
November 20 - 22, 2024
FLAR (Fondo Latinoamericano De Reservas)—the central bank of Latin America’s central banks—brings together the central bank chiefs and senior staff of Latin America’s central banks. It was a tremendous honor to once again have the opportunity to address this distinguished group in Cartagena.
My presentation starts at the 56-minute mark via the link below. We held a panel discussion after my talk, which was fun and covered a lot of issues.
The conference is one of the more thought-provoking and exciting events, illuminating everything happening in the Hemisphere now and in the future. Thank you for having me back, FLAR, and thank you, DWS, for once again arranging for me to speak!
From left to right: DWS’ Aiviel Sanchez, Ana María Rodríguez, Stella Gonzales Vigil, Mary Wallace, and myself at the DWS Rep Office Reception held at the J.W. Marriott in Bogáta on November 19, 2024.
Opening of the DWS Rep Office in Colombia
November 19, 2024 — It was my great pleasure and honor to visit Colombia last week for meetings in Bogáta and Cartenga, all arranged by DWS. Having the opportunity to meet with the leadership of the nation’s pensions funds, bank insurance fund, and other financial leaders was both timely and fascinating. Colombia is emerging as a major hub for technology in the region. Foreign investors are increasingly looking to Colombia as a superb choice to invest for the long term.
While there, I was honored to speak at the DWS Rep Office opening reception. DWS is expanding its operations throughout the region, particularly in Colombia. Colombian investors are deeply focused on geopolitical developments, particularly between the US and China and the upcoming review of the USMCA. There was a lot to discuss with the attendees, and I suspect there will be even more to cover in the months to come.
Handelsblatt: Donald Trump Appoints Howard Lutnick as Secretary of Commerce
November 19, 2024 - I was pleased to be interviewed by Handelsblatt (one of Germany’s most prominent newspapers) about the implications of President-elect Trump’s nomination of Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick as Commerce Secretary. Below is a translation of the article:
The future US President Donald Trump wants to make his billionaire advisor Howard Lutnick Secretary of Commerce. Trump announced this on Tuesday on his platform Truth SocialAs Commerce Secretary, he would play a key role in implementing Trump's plans to increase and enforce tariffs.
In an additional role, Lutnick will be "directly" responsible for the position of US Trade Representative, Trump explained. He left open what this structure will look like in practice. Normally, the Secretary of Commerce and the Trade Representative (USTR = United States Trade Representative) are two separate positions in the US government. Either way, Lutnick will take on a key role in the future trade policy of the USA .
Lutnick will lead a sprawling agency involved in financing new computer chip factories, imposing trade restrictions, publishing economic data and even monitoring the weather. It's also a position where connections to corporate executives and the business community are crucial.
The personnel decision comes as a surprise. Lutnick, CEO of the New York investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald, was originally considered for the position of Treasury Secretary. The eccentric banker was a major donor during the election campaign and is leading Trump's transition team, which is preparing for his return to the White House.
Recently, however, there has been some resentment around Lutnick . Trump is annoyed with him and has the feeling that Lutnick is trying to influence the personnel debates in his favor, US media reported unanimously on Monday. Trump's adviser Elon Musk would have liked to see Lutnick as finance minister, as he said on his short message service X. But Trump is now looking for other candidates.
Howard Lutnick supports higher tariffs
The US president-elect is putting the investment banker in a central role to shape the economic policy of the future government. Lutnick would lead a department that focuses on issues such as economic growth and tariffs.
The billionaire has been a strong advocate for Trump's comprehensive tariff policy , which provides for import tariffs on all imports into the USA. They are intended to motivate foreign companies to produce more in the USA and to create jobs and investments locally.
Howard Lutnick at an event with Donald Trump.Photo: AP
However, he has a more nuanced view of the tariffs than Trump, as Lutnick said in September on the US stock exchange channel CNBCexplained. The USA earns "quite a lot of money" from tariffs. At the same time, they are primarily a means of negotiating with other countries.
Countries that impose higher tariffs on imports from the USA would have to prepare for tough discussions. "But if we don't produce certain things in the USA, it makes no sense to impose import tariffs on them," said the 63-year-old.
As Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick would potentially have a lot of influence.
With his long experience in the financial world, he would be particularly well suited for the post of Secretary of Commerce, believes Frank Kelly, founder of the consulting firm Fulcrum Macro Advisors. The investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald, headed by Lutnick, specializes in bond markets and is also very active in Europe.
"So Lutnick probably has a much better understanding of the economies in the various European countries, their political leadership and the issues that need to be discussed with the United States," Kelly said. Lutnick could therefore have even more influence as Commerce Secretary than in the Treasury Department.
If Donald Trump has his way, investment banker and billionaire Howard Lutnick will become the next United States Secretary of Commerce. This will cement the image of a tough China stance by the next US administration.
The US Department of Commerce is a hodgepodge of agencies, from economic development to economic sanctions and tariffs. During Trump's first term in office, it had relatively little influence because then-Secretary Wilbur Ross was skeptical about punitive tariffs - which were then implemented under the leadership of the National Security Council in the White House and then-Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.
However, the ministry's influence in the coming administration could grow again, for example when it comes to reversing Joe Biden's industrial policy.
Long experience on Wall Street
Lutnick is a colorful figure on Wall Street. He started at Cantor Fitzgerald in 1983, straight out of college, and quickly developed a close relationship with the boutique investment bank's founder, Bernard Cantor. He was promoted to CEO in 1991.
Lutnick has also advised the future president on crypto issues. Cantor Fitzgerald manages funds from the controversial cryptocurrency Tether and has a keen interest in crypto-friendly regulation. The investment banker accompanied the president during his appearance at a Bitcoin conference in Nashville in the summer.
American Council on Life Insurance Senior Investment Managers Seminar 2024
Santa Barbara, California
November 11, 2024 — I loved being in beautiful Santa Barbara today to speak at the ACLI Senior Investment Managers Seminar! There is so much going on this week, with the G20 Leaders meeting in Brazil, the COP26 meeting in Azerbaijan, the APEC Summit in Peru, and President Biden hosting President-elect Trump at the White House for lunch on Wednesday. What a sea change we are going through!
The Clearing House Annual Conference 2024
I Will Be Moderating An All-Star Panel Entitled:
“The Votes Are In: Reviewing the 2024 Election Cycle, Outcomes, and the Road Ahead
November 13, 2024 — I had the greatest time moderating this All-Star panel of John Heilemann, Mark McKinnon, and Jennifer Palmieri at the Clearing House Annual Conference 2024 in New York. It turned out to be national newsmaking event, too, when I asked Jen Palmieri why Vice President Kamala Harris decided not to appear on the Joe Rogan podcast. Jen served as a senior advisor to the Harris campaign.
She told us that she favored Harris appearing on the show - one that would hit tens of millions of listeners who tend to be highly independent thinkers (Note: When former President Trump appeared, he had more than 40 million viewers just on the Youtube channel alone). So why not do it? Because a large segment of the campaign staff - all extremely Progressive in their views - strongly objected to Harris appearing on a show with Rogan, who they claimed was a racist, misogynist, and homophobic (extraordinary and, as far as I’m concerned, completely false charges). It ended up hurting Harris quite significantly during the campaign.
Again, it was a great event. Thank you, Clearing House, for asking me to moderate this great event!
You can find out more about the conference HERE.
From left to right, Frank Kelly, John Heilmann, Jen Palmieri, and Mark McKinnon
SSI Securities (Vietnam):
Post U.S. Election - Impact and Implications for Vietnam
November 12, 2024 - I’m excited to join my old friend, Tom Nguyen, again to talk about the implications of last week’s U.S. elections on Vietnam and the greater Indo-Pacific Region. This is going to be both an honor and great fun to talking to hundreds of Vietnam’s business leaders and entrepreneurs. Thank you, Tom, for having me join!
Nebraska Bankers Association’s
Bank Investment & Economic Outlook Conference
Lincoln, Nebraska
November 7, 2024 - I had a fantastic time speaking at the Nebraska Bankers Association’s Annual Bank Investment & Economic Outlook Conference. If you really want to understand the pulse of the heartland of America, talk to the bankers - local folks dedicated to supporting the work and families in their community. There are no better economists or political analysts in America, as far as I’m concerned. So, it was a true honor and privilege to join with them today to talk about the U.S. economy, the political outlook, geopolitics, and the opportunities this brings to the banks of Nebraska and their clients.
The RIA Channel and Xtrackers by DWS Presents:
American Post-Election: Where Do We Go From Here
November 6, 2024 — The RIA Channel taped a talk featuring my friend, J. H. Whitney Investment Management Chairman and CEO John O’Connor, and myself discussing the investment implications of the US elections and geopolitical risk for the new Trump Administration. The excellent DWS head of Xtrackers Sales in the US, Amanda Rebello, moderated the session, which offers CE credits for financial professionals.
You can watch the video of the discussion HERE.
Fortune Magazine: American voters were asked about the economy. The overwhelming answer shows why they picked Trump over Harris
November 6, 2024 - The election (for the most part) is over. Several states are still counting presidential and congressional votes. However, the decision has been made, and President Trump is returning to the White House with a stunning reversal of fortunes. I was happy to talk with Fortune Magazine Reporter Paolo Confino about why the election was such a surprise and why voters were not feeling the economic upturn we have begun to see in recent reports. The full story is below:
*****
In the 2024 election, voters made their decision based on what political strategists long considered to be the central issue of every presidential campaign: the economy.
Exit polls on Tuesday showed a stark partisan divide. Some two-thirds (67%) of voters said the condition of the economy was “not good/poor,” and only 32% thought the economy was “excellent/good.” Among those who viewed the economy negatively, 69% were Republicans and 29% were Democrats, according to the same poll. Only 8% of those with a positive outlook on the economy were Republican while a whopping 91% of people who felt the economy was doing well were Democrats.
Those numbers presaged an insurmountable hurdle for the incumbent Democratic Party. And it appears Vice President Kamala Harris couldn’t outrun the negative sentiment.
The actual state of economic play is more complex. Inflation has come down to 2.4% from a high of 9% in June 2022. But that means prices are growing more slowly, not that they’re low.
“[President-elect Donald] Trump is expected to be largely inheriting a pretty decent economy, with one exception, while inflation rates have fallen back down to earth, price levels are still pretty high,” Glenmede vice president of investment strategy Michael Reynolds said. “And that’s ultimately what matters for households.”
Essentially, Americans are still feeling financial pressure in their daily lives. The U.S. recovery from the pandemic-era economic slump outpaced the rest of the world. But that was little solace for voters struggling with high costs of living, a housing shortage, and a general sense of economic malaise.
Broad macroeconomic trends, even if they’re positive, are far removed from people’s everyday lives, according to Frank Kelly, senior political strategist at the investment firm DWS. “The average mom and pop isn’t looking at the Bureau of Labor Statistics report, right?,” he said.
Any macroeconomic gains were entirely overshadowed by voters’ feelings about the dollars and cents in their own personal budgets. In exit polls voters fretted over the cost of virtually every household staple from food in their pantry to gas in their trucks to the price of their medications. An AP poll of 120,000 voters found that roughly nine in 10 were “very” or “somewhat” concerned about grocery prices, and eight in 10 were worried about the cost of medical care and gas.
Trump succeeded in convincing voters concerned about the economy that he was best suited to fix their problems because he spoke plainly, Kelly said. “He sounded as if you were in a Lions Club meeting or a Knights of Columbus meeting and somebody was talking about the economy,” Kelly said. “He really spoke to the common man in his language.”
The economy ranked as a top issue among key voting groups that Trump won away from Harris. Among all Hispanic voters, 70% judged the economy as “poor,” according to a Washington Post exit poll. The same poll showed that Hispanic voters prioritized the economy more so than the overall electorate. Some 40% of Hispanics said the economy was their most important issue; two-thirds of that subset voted for Trump.
Latinos banked on Trump to improve the economy
Trump made major inroads with Hispanic voters during this election cycle. Last election President Joe Biden won Hispanic voters 65-32 against Trump. In 2024 the Trump campaign saw a 25 point swing among Hispanics, which amounted to just a 53-45 win for Harris.
The economy was a top issue in the 2020 election as well, in large part because the pandemic was still raging across the country. Yet despite that, four years ago there was a larger share of the electorate with a positive view of the economy. In 2020, there was an even split between those who thought the economy was strong, and those who thought the opposite, according to CNN exit polls from both elections. One thing that did hold true across elections was that voters with an unfavorable view of the economy punished the incumbent party. In 2020, Biden won voters with a negative view of the economy by 63 points. Harris lost them by 40.
However, the feeling of dissatisfaction wasn’t just limited to the economy. It seemingly touched all aspects of American life, as voters registered dramatic levels of disappointment in the direction of the country.
Forty-three percent of voters said they were dissatisfied with the direction of the country, according to an NBC News exit poll. In that same poll, 29% opted for an even harsher assessment of the country, reporting they were “angry” at where the U.S. was headed. For some Americans their aggravation required cataclysmic change to the status quo. About 30% of voters wanted total upheaval in how the U.S. is run, according to the AP poll.
Handelsblatt: How is Wall Street Preparing for Post-Election Turmoil
No one knows when the election results will be known. Wall Street is preparing for increased volatility. Bonds, dollar trades, and cryptocurrencies are the particular focus.
November 5, 2024 - I was delighted to again be quoted again in Handelsblatt, Germany’s largest business newspaper, on what is causing volatility in the bond markets in advance of today’s elections. My views were (translated from the German):
“Frank Kelly, founder of consulting firm Fulcrum Macro Advisors, points to two early indicators that provide insight into the bond market movement in advance of the next Fed interest rate meeting. The first is growing geopolitical risk. We are all waiting to see what Israel does to Iran (especially since Hezbollah sent a drone attacking Netanyahu’s home - which brought it to a new level with Iran), plus the BRICS meeting that has just started, etc. And, secondly, general nervousness about the overall election - could Republicans not only win the Senate but hold onto the House as new polling data suggest movement down ballot?”
Left to right: Liz Herman, Joyce Change, Bob Cusack, Matt Lapinski, and Frank Kelly
J.P. Morgan Investor Seminar
IMF/World Bank Annual Meeting 2024
October 23, 2024 - Being back at the J.P. Morgan Annual IMF/World Bank Client Seminar as a speaker and panelist was a real thrill! The ever-fantastic (legendary) Joyce Chang ran the conference and moderated our panel, “Final Countdown: Thoughts Before Election Day.” Sitting on a stage with the Hill Editor Bob Cusack, Matt Lapinski, CEO of Crossroads Strategies, and Liz Herman from JPM’s Government Affairs Team was awesome - I think I learned more from them than just about anyone else on the elections and what it means for markets and legislation. Thank you, Joyce, for having me!
Mid-Atlantic Bank Executive Conference
Middleburg, Virginia
November 3, 2024 - I was thrilled to have the opportunity to speak at the Mid-Atlantic Bank Executive Conference, sponsored by the Virginia Bankers Association, the Maryland Bankers Association, the West Virginia Bankers Association, and the Pennsylvania Bankers Association. The event was held at the beautiful Salamander Resort in Middleburg, Virginia. Being in Middleburg in the falls is a very special event, being one of the most beautiful areas in the mid-Atlantic area with horse farms all about the area. Thank you for having me at this great event!
The Counselors of Real Estate Global Seminar:
The Risky World of Geopolitics
October 30, 2024 — I was delighted to have the chance to speak to more than 200 leading commercial real estate investors from around the world on the role geopolitics is having in shaping the commercial real estate space. From the economic and social upheaval in China to the growing risks of expanded war in Ukraine and the Middle East, global investors are increasingly looking to the U.S. as a safe-haven for investing. Moreover, Washington’s growing focus on U.S. national economic security led Congress to pass the CHIPS Act, the Infrastructure bill, and the Inflation Reduction Act — all a boon to the commercial real estate sector as well as an overall ongoing massive fiscal stimulus for the U.S. economy over the coming four to six years.
Thank you for having me join you, CRE. It was a fantastic conversation and I really enjoyed it! You can watch the discussion below.
Handelsblatt:
Interest Rate Concerns Are Back - And Are Stopping the Stock Market Rally
Bond Yields in the US have risen sharply within a month. This is also because a scenario that investors have not yet considered could become a reality in the US.
October 24, 2024 - I was happy to get the chance to discuss what is going on in the bond markets and how they are being influenced by geopolitics, uncertainty about the next Fed meeting, and the upcoming U.S. elections with Handelsblatt, Germany’s largest business newspaper.
“Frank Kelly, managing director of the consulting firm Fulcrum Macro Advisors in Washington, cites the following reasons for the development: 1) movement in advance of the next Fed interest rate meeting, 2) geopolitical risk: Waiting to see what Israel does to Iran (especially since Hezbollah sent a drone attacking Netanyahu’s home - that brought it to a new level with Iran) plus the BRICS meeting that has just started etc. and 3) nervousness about the overall election - could Republicans not only win the Senate but hold onto the House as new polling data suggest movement down ballot?”
You can read the full interview HERE.
DWS CIO View Special Report:
November Surprises: What to Expect, As We Head Into the Homestretch of Another U.S. Electoral Nailbiter
October 29, 2024 - DWS published their Special U.S. Election Report today. I was thrilled to be asked to contribute to DWS Chief Investment Officer Bjorn Jesich’s special report on next week’s election and its likely impact on markets globally. Bjorn is one of the very best CIOs I’ve ever met, and he sees markets globally and locally with incredible perspective and precision. You can access the full report HERE. I hope you find it helpful.
“Voters may have been eager to learn more about Harris, and excited by her candidacy, but it’s unrealistic to expect all of that interest will translate into votes, said Frank Kelly, senior political strategist at the investment firm DWS.
“At this point, this is where independents look at their tribal roots, and they head back to the tribe,” said Frank Kelly, senior political strategist at the investment firm DWS. “So you either don’t vote or you go back to where you came from and a lot of people just end up doing that.”
Fortune Magazine: Donald Trump is eking ahead in the polls as the "excitement’s over’ for Kamala Harris
Fortune Magazine interviewed me today to get my sense of how the presidential election is going with two weeks left in the race. Below is the interview, or you can read the piece online HERE.
****
Donald Trump is eking ahead in the polls as the ‘excitement is over’ for Kamal Harris
by Paolo Confino - October 22, 2024
Former President Donald Trump is pulling ahead in the polls as the presidential election enters its home stretch. A number of news outlets and election forecasters showed Trump overtaking Vice President Kamala Harris.
The race still remains a virtual dead heat, coming down to fine margins in just a few swing states. However, in the campaign’s closing weeks the former president has pulled ahead, perhaps presaging a dramatic return to the White House. The state of the race represents a return to normalcy as Republican-leaning voters that had previously entertained the possibility of crossing political lines and voting for Harris return home in the lead-up to Election Day.
Voters may have been eager to learn more about Harris, and excited by her candidacy, but it’s unrealistic to expect all of that interest will translate into votes, said Frank Kelly, senior political strategist at the investment firm DWS.
“At this point, this is where independents look at their tribal roots, and they head back to the tribe,” said Frank Kelly, senior political strategist at the investment firm DWS. “So you either don’t vote or you go back to where you came from and a lot of people just end up doing that.”
For Harris, the major change in the race is that she is no longer gaining momentum, with gaining being the operative word. “Excitement’s over,” Kelly said.
The vice president surged in the polls after her dramatic entry into the race in July on the back of a rejuvenated Democratic Party and a raft of positive press coverage. In September, after her only televised debate with Trump, Harris was widely considered to have won—and she got a further bump in the polls.
“In some ways, it’s almost like a recalibration,” Kelly said. “She shot ahead because of the excitement, and the ‘vibe,’ and he’s been clawing back that space.”
The Harris campaign has always maintained it expected the race to be extremely close to the point of being tied, while the Trump campaign regularly referred to Harris’s previous leads in the polls as a honeymoon phase that would peter out. FiveThirtyEight gives Trump a 52% chance of winning the election, whereas just a few weeks ago it gave Harris a 58% chance of winning.
That said, the flip-flopping may be more indicative of the state of the race than who actually leads it.
“It’s two sides settling down for long trench warfare, and they’re fighting over dozens of votes, as opposed to tens of thousands of votes,” Kelly said.
The race will come down to the slightest of margins among undecided voters in just a few swing states. Any change in those margins and the race could be altered dramatically. Of the seven swing states still in play—Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina—all are within two points, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Michigan are all even, according to FiveThirtyEight. In Wisconsin, Harris is up one point against Trump, while Trump is ahead by a point in North Carolina and two points in Georgia and Arizona. Trump’s lead in Georgia appears to be widening to four points, according to a poll of likely voters from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and the University of Georgia released Tuesday.
Because of the Electoral College, small movements in the polls in swing states can have large ripple effects for the outcome of the election. In a worrying sign for Harris, her polling results in swing states are all declining. In addition to the Georgia poll, Harris’s lead is slipping in the other swing states, according to ABC News. In no swing state, even where she leads, has Harris’s polling lead increased. That means the outcome of swing states could come down to each campaign’s ability to turn out voters in each of the swing states.
The Georgia poll that showed Harris slipping, like many others, found the 2024 election had an unusually high number of voters that were still open to switching their votes. Eight percent of likely voters in the Georgia poll were still undecided, while nationally that number was even higher, with 10% of saying they might still change their minds, according to an NBC poll.
In the closing weeks, Harris seems set on trying to win at least some of these voters to her side. Earlier this week, Harris campaigned with former Republican member of Congress Liz Cheney, who has been an outspoken critic of Trump following the events of Jan. 6, 2021.
Research from the Democratic-aligned research group Blueprint (founded by LinkedIn cofounder Reid Hoffman) found the most convincing closing argument against Trump was that he lacked support from his own Republican cabinet officials, a message that the Harris campaign and its newfound Republican surrogates have been hammering home over the past few days.
“People really need to stop and think about how completely unprecedented that is,” Cheney said during a campaign stop with Harris.
While the outcome of the election remains a toss-up, Americans do sense the magnitude of this election in ways they haven’t before. Americans have shrugged off much of the disillusionment they feel for politics and politicians of either party, at least temporarily. An NBC News poll found 62% of registered voters believe this election will make a “great deal of difference” in their lives.
SMBC Virtual Fireside Chat with SMBC Chief US Economist Joseph Lavorgna
October 24, 2024 - 10:00 a.m. EST
this is going to be a wild one! I am so delighted to be joining my dear old friend, Joe Lavogna, to discuss the upcoming U.S. Elections and how they will shape the markets. Joe is the Chief US Economist for the esteemed Japanese bank SMBC. He and I have been friends for over 25 years, and he’s one of the best Wall Street Economists. I hope you can join us for this call, which will be lively (if you know Joe and me) and fun!
McGill Junge Wealth Management’s “Ask the Experts" Webinar
October 24, 2024 - 12:00 p.m. CT
I was delighted to speak with my great friend, Ed McGill. about the global economic and political outlook. Ed and his partner, Ross Junge, run one of the most successful, innovative, and client-focused wealth management operations I’ve ever seen. Brilliant and laser-focused but also with the genuine culture of a long-time trusted family doctor, McGill Junge has built a large practice by any standard in beautiful Des Moines, Iowa.
You can watch the interview below:
SumZero & Alpha Sense:
Election 2024: Political Impacts on Investment Strategies
October 22 - 2:00 p.m. EST
October 22, 2024 - I greatly enjoyed speaking with my old friend, Griff Marie and Charley Grant from AlphaSense to discuss the 2024 elections and their market implications. So many sectors will likely be impacted, and we'll try to break it down for you. You can watch the entire interview below.
Live Abundantly: Joy & Meaning for those with Down Syndrome
Pelham, New York
October 17, 2024 — I am constantly speaking somewhere about policy, elections, politics, geopolitics, geoeconomic trends, and other issues. But this is where my heart lies, joyfully taken when my late son, Brendan, was born in 1997. Brendan had Down Syndrome, and in his short 15 years of life, he changed the world. Despite battling Leukemia three times and going through a brutal bone marrow transplant - beating it each time. Ultimately, we lost him as his poor little body had taken too much of a beating of chemotherapy and battling this dreadful disease.
Brendan became friends with St. Pope John Paul II when he - all on his own and with no suggestion from his parents or siblings—wanted his “Make-A-Wish” to be meeting the Pope. That story has been told in four separate books and numerous news articles.
Brendan is only one example of how people with Down Syndrome transform all those they meet and know. But the story does not stop there - they had a champion, a giant of science who is now close to being declared a saint by the Catholic Church: Dr. Jerome Lejeune, MD. A friend and confidant of John Paul II, a brilliant researcher who first identified the genetic make-up of Down Syndrome and then went on to transform the treatment of those with Down’s as well as other special needs.
To say it is an honor to speak at the Dignity of Life Committee event is, quite honestly, a massive understatement. I will be there bursting with pride at having the chance to talk about Dr. Lejeune and my Brendan. Thank you, my friends, for having me.
National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF)
Fall Conference 2024
Hollywood, Florida
October 14, 2024 - What a great event in Hollywood, Florida, at the NCREIF 2024 Conference. With all that is going on globally, with all that is going on in the markets - especially in the commercial real estate markets - we had a fantastic and very lively discussion. We covered the upcoming US elections, federal tax law being re-written in 2025 and 2026, and the strong fiscal tailwinds of the CHIPS Act, IRA, and Infrastructure laws coming in the coming year! Here is the full agenda (HERE).
Thank you, NCREIF, for letting me a part of the wonderful event!
State of Wisconsin Investment Board Regular Meeting of the Board of Trustees Fireside Chat on Elections and Geopolitics
Delavan, Wisconsin
October 15, 2024 — I am delighted to have the opportunity to participate in a fireside chat at the upcoming SWIB Board of Trustees meeting. SWIB is one of the most brilliantly well-run retirement systems in America. This is a real honor and I’m very much looking forward to it!
NeuGroup’s 2024 Conference for Large and Mid-Cap Treasurers
New York, New York
October 8 & 9, 2024 - The NeuGroup is the most trusted thought leader and respected advocate for corporate finance and treasury practitioners. I was delighted and honored to speak at their Large Cap and Mid-Cap Treasurers Conference in New York, representing some of the biggest Fortune 100 companies in America. We discussed how geopolitical and geoeconomic risks and opportunities are driving a good deal of the US election themes and how they will likely play out in the November vote and in Congress in 2025.
Thank you, DWS, for arranging it, and thank you for having me, NeuGroup!
S&P Global Market Intelligence Insurance IN/sights Symposium 2024
New York, New York October 8, 2024
October 8, 2024 - I was delighted to have had the opportunity to participate in a fantastic S&P Global Market Intelligence Conference on the insurance sector. We had a great conversation on how the elections could impact the economy, inflation, markets, and the insurance industry as a whole. Ben Herzon’s superb analysis of Vice President Harris’s and former President Trump’s economic agendas set the stage for a lively discussion masterfully hosted by S&P’s Haily Ross. Jerry Theodorou also brought a level of expertise in the insurance sector at both the federal and state levels which is unmatched. Outstanding analysis by both Jerry and Ben. It was an honor to sit on this powerhouse panel. Thank you for having me, S&P Global!
Conversation with Dynamic Advisor Solutions and J.H. Whitney Asset Management: Washington Analysis and Geopolitical Landscape Review
October 4, 2024—On behalf of DWS and their fantastic Xtrackers team, I had a great conversation with my friend John O'Connor, led by Kostya Etus of Dynamic Advisor Solutions, regarding the U.S. Elections and geopolitical landscape and its impact on the financial markets. John is one of the most intelligent, insightful folks I know when it comes to geopolitical risk and finance. It is a great honor and pleasure to share a stage with him!
Ventura County Employees’ Retirement Association Board of Retirement Board Retreat & Business Meeting
September 30, 2024 — This was a very special event for me. VCERA’s chief investment officer is Dan Gallagher. Several years ago, after listening to one of my DWS bi-weekly client calls, Dan put together the fact that we are cousins who have not seen each other for nearly 50 years. He invited me out last year to address his board, and I’m guessing it well enough that he decided to have me back again this year! And who doesn’t love to go to beautiful Ventura and present three blocks from the beach?
It was a wonderful time and a great discussion with the VCERA Board. We covered the many geopolitical factors that impact global markets - particularly fixed income in the US and abroad. We also focused on the coming fiscal tailwinds from the massive amount of unspent federal CHIPS Act, infrastructure, and IRA funding.
You can watch my presentation HERE (as well as the rest of the board meeting).
DWS Insurance Asset Management Conference
Charleston, South Carolina
September 23, 2024 — I was delighted to have the opportunity to address this gathering of CEOs and Chief Investment Officers of some of the biggest insurance firms globally. It was a fantastic conversation about the multiple geopolitical challenges today and the many implications of the U.S. elections on the markets. Will Harris win, or will Trump pull off a come-back? Which party will control the Senate, and is there a real chance that the filibuster will be removed if Democrats sweep the White House, House of Representatives, and Senate? What does this mean for tax policy? Health care policy? And where are we going on with the U.S.-China policy, and what exactly is going on inside China today economically, socially, and politically? We covered all of this and much more. Thank you for having me, DWS! You can see my full presentation HERE.
Wisconsin Bankers Association Management Conference
Green Bay, Wisconsin
September 24, 2024 - I was delighted to present to the Wisconsin Bankers Association at their Annual Management Conference in beautiful Green Bay at the Oneida Hotel and Casino.
It was a great conversation with C-Suite bank executives, discussing the US elections (Wisconsin is a must-win state for both former President Trump and Vice President Harris) and how geopolitics are driving tremendous opportunity here in the US. We focused a good part of the talk on the coming tailwinds from massive spending on the CHIPS Act, the Infrastructure bill, and the Inflation Reduction Act - all of which have barely yet to tap the massive funding appropriated by Congress.
Thank you for having me, WBA! Green Bay is a beautiful town!
SSI Securities Corporation (Vietnam’s Leading Investment Bank) Client Call:
The U.S. Election and Vietnam
Thursday, September 19, 2024 - I was delighted to participate in SSI Securities's inaugural “Gateway to Vietnam” client call entitled “The US election and Vietnam.” Hosted by my dear friend, Thomas Nguyen, this is the first time SSI has hosted a virtual call for institutional and corporate clients - and we had nearly 1,000 participants!
In 2025, two historic anniversaries will be remembered in US-Vietnamese relations: It will be 50 years since the end of the Vietnamese War and 30 years since the US established diplomatic relations with Vietnam. Over the last 30 years, the relationship has taken off, with Vietnam becoming a major trade partner of the US. Increasingly, the US and Vietnam are serving as strategic partners to ensure a safe and secure environment in the greater Indo-Asian region. In 2023, Vietnam and the US established a “Comprehensive Strategic Relationship” - the highest diplomatic relationship Vietnam can have with another country.
Vietnam is a tremendous success story. The nation’s economy has experienced a meteoric rise over the last 30+ years. Its GDP has grown sixfold, the poverty rate has been slashed from 14 percent to 2 percent, and the middle class has grown massively. Trade with the US reached $115 billion in 2022 and continues to grow.
We will be watching closely as Vietnam develops into a major semiconductor manufacturer and a major supplier of critical minerals and other rare earth elements in the years to come.
The future of US-Vietnamese relations is bright. It was great fun to work with my old friend, Tom, again and to participate in this superb call.
I had a great conversation with Bloomberg Columnist John Authers (who is also Bloomberg’s senior editor for Markets) Thursday about former President Donald Trump’s tariff proposal and its potential impact on domestic prices, geopolitics, and the elections. Below is an excerpt of what I had to say. You can read the full interview and Authers’ column HERE.
Fortune Magazine: The US Dollar is Weakening Because Some Investors Think Kamala Harris Will Win
August 21, 2024 - Fortune Magazine interviewed me about the “Trump Trade” - is it fading because markets are starting to factor in a likely Kamala Harris victory in November.
The story's genesis is a Macquarie research note suggesting, “The current weakness of the US dollar can be attributed to the unwinding of the “Trump Trade,” which had been built on the premise of more inflation and higher interest rates in the US, which would support the USD.
I took the opposite side of this view. Here is what I had to say:
“Backing off from the Trump trade seems to indicate that at least some investors are losing faith in Trump’s chances come November. However, with several months to go until the election, any outcome is far from a foregone conclusion. Especially in a race such as this year’s that was so recently upended, according to Frank Kelly, senior political strategist at investment firm DWS. “July was Trump’s month, August was Harris’ month, and September is going to be an all-out brawl,” he said.
Throughout the early days of her campaign, Harris has been relatively vague on policy. However, she’s started rolling out more of them over the last week. So far, her economic views include advocating for regulations against excessive price increases on consumer goods, building more housing stock, and eliminating taxes on tips (an idea first introduced by Trump).
The Harris campaign has telegraphed that will change over the coming weeks. The ongoing Democratic National Convention could serve as a starting point for a broader policy rollout. Kelly, the political strategist, thinks once that happens the election campaign will move into its next phase. “Now they’ll start battering each other with policy issues rather than it being personal,” he said.
You can read the full article HERE.
Reuters: As Democrats gather, investors gauge market impact from a Harris administration
August 21, 2024 - Reuters interviewed me to understand Vice President Harris’s economic and regulatory policy views. My thoughts:
“She seems to be on track to be more aggressive than the Biden Administration on a lot of these consumer issues that go right to the market,” said Frank Kelly, senior political strategist at investment firm DWS Group, citing Harris’ recent economic proposals and her record as a U.S Senator and California Attorney General.
You can read the full interview HERE.
Reuters: Trump’s bitcoin stockpile plan stirs debate
August 6, 2024 - Reuter’s reporters Medha Singh and Lisa Mattackal wrote a brilliant piece on the intersection of Bitcoin and the presidential elections, taking a deep dive into former President Donald Trump’s proposal to create a federal Bitcoin stockpile.
I was delighted to be interviewed for the commentary. My assessment was this is a much more complicated issue than many may understand. I pointed out that this could end up being like the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, where both the President and Congress have varying amounts of control.
Indeed, over the years, Congress has regularly “raided’ the SPR, forcing the sale a portions of it to use the proceeds to help fund budget proposals (much like Congress raiding the Social Security program over the years, too).
You can read the full commentary and more on my assessment of the proposal HERE.
Business Insider: 3 Election Trades to Boost your Portfolio Regardless of a Harris or Trump Win
August 4, 2024 — Markets are struggling to understand the potential implications of the November Presidential elections and which sectors are safest and which are no-goes. Business Insider wrote a piece interviewing DWS Chief Investment Officer David Bianco, Amanda Rebello, Head of DWS’ Xtrackers ETF Sales, and me.
As I told BI, I “believe that the Big Tech-friendly policies Biden spearheaded, such as the CHIPS Act, are here to stay. "The CHIPS Act, in particular, was bipartisan…”
I went on to point out that with continued government support coming from across the aisle in Congress and hefty AI capital expenditures, the Big Tech and AI investment theme is a durable one this election season.
We discussed the potential impact on the dollar. My view is although Trump has been critical of a strong US dollar — saying that it makes US exports less competitive on the global market — the dollar would likely rise under his policies. If Trump wins, tax cuts will provide a boost to corporate America and increase consumer spending. This fiscal stimulus should result in decreased market volatility, in Rebello's opinion. Increased deficits as a result of tax cuts could lead to higher interest rates, which will, in turn, push up the dollar's value.
If Harris wins, the dollar will strengthen for different reasons. More diplomatic foreign policy and trade relations will ease geopolitical tensions, increasing trust in the US dollar as the world's reserve currency. A strong economic backdrop will ensure that the dollar remains a safe haven currency for international investors. For US investors, more purchasing power means that international stocks will be a bargain investment.
You can read the full interview HERE.
Aspire Magazine
U.S. Elections: The Policy Choice
Summer 2024 - Aspire Magazine, a publication of Neuberger Berman’s Private Bank, interviewed me on the upcoming November elections. The U.S. presidential election continues to heat up, with new surprises seemingly around every corner - from a criminal conviction to an assassination attempt to the late withdrawal of the incumbent, Joe Biden. With Vice President Kamala Harris now the almost certain nominee, the contest has become even more volatile as a closely divided nation inches toward November. In contrast, the policy views informing that remain relatively stable. I offered an assessment of the views of both sides, noting meaningful contrasts, but common ground as well.
You can read the full interview HERE.
Handelsblatt: What Do We Know About Kamala Harris’ Policy Views
August 3, 2024 - Handelsblatt, one of Germany’s largest newspapers with a large global circulation, interviewed me about Vice President Kamala Harris’ economic policy views. Voters, in general, and the financial markets, in particular, are eager to understand how Harris’ positions have changed in the last four years since she ran for President in 2020, from when she was a U.S. Senator before that and during her prior role as California Attorney General.
Harris previously supported taxing stock and bond trades (both for individuals and institutions), taxing couples 4 percent earning $100,000 or more to pay for universal healthcare, and opposed the re-confirmation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
You can read the full interview HERE.
Fortune Magazine - There’s a ‘very low probability’ Trump or Harris will reappoint Jerome Powell as Fed chair, political strategist says
July 30, 2024 - I was pleased to have the opportunity to talk with Fortune Magazine about the future of the Federal Reserve in light of the 2024 Presidential elections. Below are excerpts from the piece quoting me. And HERE is the link to the full Fortune story.
Barron’s - The World Feels Unstable. How to Invest for Deglobalization
July 22, 2024 — Investors are growing increasingly anxious and worried about what will happen if former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris wins the White House in November. I was delighted to be interviewed by Barron’s on what markets should watch for in the coming months. You can read the full interview HERE.
National Credit Union Management Association Summer Conference
Nassau, Bahamas
July 19, 2024 - It was a fantastic honor to be invited to speak at the National Credit Union Management Association in Nassau, Bahamas. The NCUMA is the preeminent organization focused on the critical management, risk, and development of credit union executives. This is the second time I’ve had the chance to speak at a NCUMA event and I can tell you, they are some of the most fantastically well-run events I’ve ever attended. Thank you for having me!
Handelsblatt Interviews on Market Impact of Assassination Attempt on Former President Trump and the Election Outlook
July 14, 2024 - I was pleased to be interviewed twice this week by Handelsblatt, Germany’s largest newspaper, on the likely impact of the failed assassination attempt on former President Trump on the financial markets and then a general overview of what we can expect in November.
My view is the assassination attempt will likely do two things: 1) It will contribute to a new sympathetic view of Trump by Republicans who are lukewarm on him, and 2) There is a good chance Trump will use this historic moment to present himself in a new way, a unifier of the nation - a re-branding of sorts of Trump by Trump.
Since my interview, former President Trump has indeed come out saying the shooting has changed him and that he wants to be a unifier. He announced that he tore up his already written acceptance speech and wrote a new speech. We will see—the race now appears to be Trump’s to lose. But we still have more than three months to go until election day. And anything is possible with the speech and constancy of change in recent months in the US election outlook.
The Iowa Farm Bureau’s
The Spokesman Speaks Podcast
Episode 164 - July 1, 2024
I was delighted to be interviewed for the Iowa “The Spokesman Speaks” Podcast recently while I was in Des Moines, Iowa. We spoke of geopolitical factors impacting farmers and how the agricultural sector could take advantage of the massive economic and political shifts we are seeing worldwide, particularly in China and India. You can listen to the podcast HERE.
Iowa Farm Bureau 2024 Economic Summit
Des Moines, Iowa
June 14, 2024 - I was delighted to speak this past Friday at the Iowa Farm Bureau’s 2024 Economic Summit. The Farm Bureau put together a dynamite line-up of speakers, and I was honored to be included among them. It was especially great listening to Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President & CEO Austan Goolsbee and his views on the economy, particularly with regard to the agricultural sectors.
You can find my full presentation HERE. And below is one page on India and the massive potential it is likely to offer American farmers.
Minnesota Bankers Association Annual Summit
Brainerd, Minnesota
June 10, 2024 — It was my great pleasure to address the Minnesota Bankers Association on the geopolitics driving the race for global tech dominance and development.
Bankers in the Midwest are, in our view, particularly well-positioned to take advantage of the nearly $1 trillion in Federal spending aimed at encouraging semiconductor manufacturing, alternative energy development, and critical mineral mining. Minnesota is a fantastic example of this opportunity: Mineral rich, a beautiful place to live, great educational facilities, and a cost of living that most folks on either Coast would love to have.
It was a wonderful conversation, and I’m hoping it gave the Minnesota Bankers Association members food for thought on how they can help drive this investment to their state. You can see my presentation HERE.
Iowa Association of Business and Industry’s Taking Care of Business Conference 2024
Davenport, Iowa
June 6, 2024 - Business is booming in Iowa. If you think farming is the sole economic driver of the state’s economy, think again. Big Tech has moved in force, with Amazon, Google, and other mega-players growing their businesses rapidly. The Association of Business and Industry in Iowa (ABI) is right on top of it all, smartly bringing together business leaders together to plan and execute on keeping the Iowa Economic Machine Moving. That’s what made speaking at this event so much fun - a very broad and experienced group of leaders looking at the world, the politics in the US, and economic policy carefully to make it all happen. Thank you, ABI, for letting me participate in this great event!
For those interested, you can find my presentation HERE.
134th Annual Missouri Bankers Association Convention
Branson, Missouri
June 5, 2024 - Branson, Missouri, has it all: Beautiful landscapes, great food and entertainment, and a first-class convention center where the 134th Annual Missouri Bankers Convention was held. The bankers of the “Show Me State” were out in force, and we had an excellent conversation about all things geopolitics, US elections, the state of the US economy - and when the Fed might cut rates. Thank you, MBA, for having me out to speak to your members. Branson was such a great experience!
For those interested, you can access my presentation HERE.
Maryland Bankers Association/Virginia Bankers Association 2024 Joint Convention
Amelia Island, Georgia
June 3, 2024 - Who doesn’t like going to Amelia Island? What a wonderful venue, only surpassed by the 500 bankers from Maryland and Virginia who are dedicated to the growth and security of their clients. The speakers were superb - and I was honored to follow Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan.
You can access my presentation HERE.
SACRS Conference Santa Barbara, California
May 8, 2024 - The State Association of County Retirement Systems (SACRS) Spring Conference was held in Santa Barbara, California, this year, and I had the honor of being the keynote opening session. It was actually a really fun fireside chat moderated by Kellie DeMarco - a three-time Emmy Award-winning journalist who now runs a brilliant consulting firm, Kelli DeMarco Communications. The topic of our discussion was “ How Elections, Markets, & Demographics Are Rapidly Changing Everything.”
With 2024 proving to be a historic year, 76 elections are taking place around the world, and more than 4 billion people are likely to vote, all while seismic economic policy shifts are taking place around the world and in the US. There is a lot for pension fund managers to consider. We had a great conversation, and Kelli was fantastic in making sure we dove deep into the issues and ideas driving today’s world and markets. My deepest thanks to SACRS for having me and to Kelli for making the event stellar!
The Corn Belt Power Cooperative Annual Meeting
April 3, 2024 - Fort Dodge, Iowa - It was my distinct honor to speak at the Annual meeting of the Corn Belt Power Cooperative. As the CBPC reported to its members, “Kelly, drawing from his extensive experience as a senior executive on Wall Street and in senior government roles, offered profound insights into the global policy landscape and its ramifications on markets worldwide. His perspective enriched the discourse surrounding public policy decision-making and its implications for the cooperative’s trajectory.”
CFA Society of Mexico: The Coming Mexican and U.S. Elections and Future Challenges and Opportunities for The Rest of the Western Hemisphere
March 19, 2024—Frank was delighted to speak to the CFA Society of Mexico in Mexico City on the challenges and opportunities the coming elections in Mexico and the U.S. offer. He also covered the geopolitical and geoeconomic landscape and their implications for global markets. Frank also spoke of the many new opportunities and existing challenges for the Western Hemisphere in 2024 and beyond.
UBS Wealth Management Election Watch 2024
April 12, 2024 - Frank joined Solita Marcelli, Chief Investment Officer Americas for UBS Global Wealth Management, for a look at how the 2024 elections are shaping and their potential impact on markets. Also joining the conversation were Carlyle Group Founder and Chair David Rubenstein and former Director of the National Security Agency, Admiral Mike Rogers, USN (Ret.)
DWS Washington Analysis BiWeekly Calls with Frank Kelly
April 30, 2024—Listen to Frank’s biweekly Zoom call with hundreds of DWS clients. The calls are held every other week on Tuesdays at 11:00 a.m. EST. During this week’s call, Frank takes clients’ questions and discusses the geopolitical and US policy issues impacting markets and your portfolio.
To listen to Frank (and other senior DWS thought leaders and advisors), click HERE and scroll down to Frank’s calls.
Will India Become A Key Destination for Ag Exports?
February 21, 2024—Frank was honored to speak before the Iowa Soybean Association in Des Moines, Iowa, about how trade is rapidly shifting in the wake of the Ukraine War, US-China tensions, and the prospect of India becoming a massive new opportunity for America’s soybean farmers.
Apropos - A Ness & Associates Podcast
The Latest in Geopolitics and the Chaos in D.C
October 23, 2023—In this engaging episode of Apropos, presented by Ness & Associates and CFA Society New York, esteemed guest Kelly delves into a compelling discussion on "The Latest in Geopolitics and the Chaos in D.C." and its consequential impacts on global financial markets.
You can listen to the Podcast HERE.
CFA Society of New York: “Why Policy Uncertainty Will Impact a Lot - Not Just Banking”
October 6, 2023 — Frank joined the CFA Society of New York’s Podcast “Compound Insights” to discuss how political and regulatory risk globally is putting new pressures on markets. They also discussed the domestic political and regulatory agenda and what it might mean for financial services in 2024.
Neuberger Berman Wealth Management Insights:
Elections 2024 - Opening Salvos
July 20, 2023— With U.S. presidential primaries starting in six months, major policy issues impacting markets and investors are coming into sharper focus. In this print interview with Neuberger Berman Private Wealth Insights Magazine, Frank walks readers through what to expect and what it will mean for investors.
You can read the full interview HERE.
SumZero Podcast Global Macro Discussion with Frank Kellly and Manoj Ramnani
April 28, 2023— Frank joined Manoj Ramnani, Chief Investment Officer of 93 East Capital, in the ever-evolving landscape across global markets. We discuss the upcoming FOMC meeting, recent banking sector stress, geopolitical maneuvering in Europe, the Middle East, and APAC, and the upcoming U.S. election season.
CFA Society of Boston Podcast
February 17, 2022 — The CFA Society Boston hosted Frank to discuss critical issues in public policy, global markets, and macroeconomics. In this timely presentation (which notably took place just mere days ahead of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine), Frank shared his outlook on the current regulatory environment in the U.S., fiscal policy, the 2022 mid-term elections, and, rather fortuitously, the geopolitical landscape.
Institutional Investor:
A Fireside Chat with Frank Kelly - Where Are Geo-Politics Taking Investors?
April 2022—Frank, the Senior Political Strategist at DWS, sat down for a virtual “fireside chat” with Institutional Investor. Frank discussed the most significant ways the evolving geopolitical landscape may impact investors in 2023 and beyond.
Bloomberg: Wall Street Braces for More Rules With Trump-Era FDIC Chief Gone
January 4, 2022 - Bloomberg News interviewed me about the likely changes coming in 2022 to financial regulation - everything from bank mergers to cryptocurrency to climate change. Bloomberg wrote:
Frank Kelly, a political analyst who runs Fulcrum Macro Advisors, said the resignation removes the last bit of Republican opposition among Washington’s main Wall Street overseers, clearing the way for a flurry of new rules. “It not only gives the administration the final agency seat it didn’t have but allows for greater coordination going forward,” Kelly said. “Watch for the Biden financial regulators to begin executing this year on the ambitious agendas they laid out in 2021.”
You can read the full interview HERE.
American- German Institute
AGI Asks: What is Angela Merkel’s Impact on the Global Economy
June 1, 2021—The American-German Institute is a leading institution dedicated to policy research and scholarship on the most important political, economic, and security issues confronting Germany and the United States in the global arena. As German Chancellor Angela Merkel steps down after many years, the AGI asked seven leading experts about Merkel’s lasting impact on the global economy. Frank Kelly offers his views of Merkel, who will undoubtedly go down in history as one of Germany’s greatest leaders.
Along with Frank, you can read the thoughts and assessments of Adam Posen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics; Claudia Schmucker, Head of the Geo-Economics Program at the German Council on Foreign Relations; Holger Schmiedling, Chief Economist of Berenberg Bank, Kris Bledowski, Chief Economist of the Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation, Michael Hüther, Director and Member of the Executive Committee of the German Economic Institute, and Stormy-Annika Mildner, Executive Director of the Aspen Institute Germany.
You can read the full article HERE.
Deutsche Bank’s Podzept Podcast
Biden After 100 Days
May 5, 2021 - In a new Podzept podcast, Frank Kelly, Head of Governmental and Public Affairs, US & Latam Brett Ryan, Senior US Economist, and Luke Templeman, Thematic Analyst, discuss the US economy, in particular, what President Biden has done in his first 100 days in office, including the enormous fiscal stimulus package. Is the package politically possible as Washington looks forward to mid-term elections next year?
You can listen to the Podcast HERE.
UBS Trending
The War in Ukraine: Questions Answered
March 15, 2022 - Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues, and so do the questions: What is Putin's end-game? What happens if he succeeds, and what happens if he’s defeated? Frank is interviewed by UBS on what to watch for and what we can expect.
Investment News: Passage of Infrastructure Bill Could Mean More Spending in Future
October 21, 2021 - I was honored to speak at the Schwab Impact 2021 Conference. I heavily focused on the pending Infrastructure bill in the CHIPS Act in Congress. Here is what I had to say:
Catholic University of America’s Busch School of Business CEO Lecture
September 29, 2021 - I was delighted to speak to the CUA School of Business on the role of political risk in CEO decision-making. CUA is an outstanding school, and I was blown away — so much so that I agreed to start teaching there. The pay may not be much, but the ability to interact with so many smart, enthusiastic students is unrivaled in terms of excitement and hope!
You can watch my lecture HERE.
DiMeo Schneider & Associates L.L.C.:
How the 2020 Elections Could Impact Nonprofit Investors
November 18, 2020 — With the 2020 Elections mostly over, what do investors, nonprofits, and charitable organizations need to consider in managing their portfolios? To explore the answer, Deutsche Bank's Head of Global & Public Affairs, Frank Kelly, discusses the impact the elections could have on investors, especially those in the nonprofit sector. In this episode, you will learn: - What the election results mean for the economy and nonprofits - How stocks and bonds might react and a potential silver lining - Answers to common questions about the future of the nonprofit world - The impact of the election on nonprofits and their endowment investments
CFA Society of Detroit
The View From Washington
November 11, 2020 — Frank Kelly, Head of Government & Public Affairs and Chief Political Strategist for Deutsche Bank, for a post-election discussion on the political landscape and possible market, tax, and economic effects for our society.
Egan Berger & Weiner: View From Washington 2020 Presentation
December 19, 2019 — Frank presented at the Egan, Berger & Weiner’s “2019 Back to School Night), discussing the issues and events most likely to impact investors, markets, and the world.