Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis, as well as book recommendations, travel observations, and cultural experiences - all of which we hope will be of interest to you.

Francis Kelly 8/16/24 Francis Kelly 8/16/24

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Bonus Week! You Get Your Five Minutes (or more like 4 ½ minutes) Back Again…

August 19 - 23, 2024

Last week we gave you back the five minutes you normally spend reading this report because nothing was going on. Looking at the financial regulatory week ahead, you get another (or most of) your five minutes back again! But there are three quick exceptions to this other quiet week we want to flag for you, which are:

1) the Democratic National Convention is being held this week in Chicago. While we do not expect any specific policy discussions on financial regulation (this is a political convention, after all), there will almost assuredly be shots taken at Wall Street and big banks, the need for caps on rental properties, etc.

2) The Federal Reserve is back from vacation. There are two Fed governors’ speeches this week – including one by Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr on cybersecurity – and then the commencement of the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium later in the week (and Fed Chair Jay Powell is scheduled to give an economic outlook speech). The annual gathering of the world’s central bankers, situated in the midst of the gloriously beautiful Colorado Rockies, is almost always solely focused on monetary policy, but every now and then, financial regulatory issues pop up.

3) The Securities and Exchange Commission is holding an Open Meeting on August 20th to approve new rules adopted by the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB).

That’s it. The links to the Fed speeches and SEC Open meeting are below. Now go back to enjoying your summer vacation!

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

The Senate is out of session for the month of August and returns to work on September 9.

House of Representatives

The House is out of session for the month of August and returns to work on September 9.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

Monday, August 19, 9:15 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives welcoming remarks at the 2024 Summer Workshop on Money, Banking, Payments, and Finance which is hosted by the Federal Reserve Board in Washington, D.C.
Tuesday, August 20, 2:45 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr participates in a discussion on cybersecurity a the Joint Financial and Banking Information Infrastructure Committee-Financial Services Sector Coordinating Council Meeting being held in Washington, D.C.
Thursday – Saturday, August 22 – 24: The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosts the Jackson Hole Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. This year’s theme is “Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy.”
Friday, August 23, 10:00 a.m. EST – Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell will give a speech on the Economic Outlook at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Jackson Hole Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

U.S. Treasury Department

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

Tuesday, August 20, 10:00 a.m. – The SEC is holding an Open Meeting on August 20th to approve new rules adopted by the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB).

Thursday, August 22, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Think Tanks and Other Events

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 8/16/24 Francis Kelly 8/16/24

The Global Week Ahead

The Three Biggest Events of the Week Are Not on the Calendar: Waiting and Watching in the Middle East, What Happens Next in Venezuela, and how Ukraine’s bold assault across Russia’s border in the Kursk region might change the face of the war.

August 11 - 17, 2024

It is supposed to be a quiet August, with much of the world on holiday. But, while there is not much officially scheduled this coming week, three potentially seismic events are happening this week not on the calendar.

First, Israel (and the rest of the world) continues to wait and watch for an almost assured retaliatory strike from Iran following Israel’s killing of senior Hezbollah leader, Fuad Shukr, in Lebanon and then Hamas’ political leader, Ismail Hanihey, who was visiting Tehran for the inauguration of Iran’s new President, Masoud Pezeshkian. Our view is Iran has few options on how to attack Israel without risking causing an immediate and massive escalation potentially leading to an all-out war. In the midst of all this, negotiations being brokered by Qatar and other nations between Israel and Hamas for a ceasefire and release of the remaining Israeli and U.S. hostages appear to be closer than ever before to reaching a deal. A new round of talks is expected this Thursday, either in Doha or Egypt.

Second, Venezuelan President Nicholás Maduro is expected to ramp up further his mass arrests of anyone who voted against him and opposes his regime in the face of the recent fraudulent election he carried out last month. Venezuela accounts for more than 17 percent of the known existing oil reserves globally. But the ongoing crisis caused by Maduro’s increasingly dictatorial regime and resulting economic catastrophe has caused one of the largest displacement crises currently in the world, with close to 8 million Venezuelans fleeing the country.

And in the midst of all this comes news that the US has held secret talks with Maduro offering him amnesty if he cedes power– offering full pardons for Maduro and his top henchmen who are currently under multiple U.S. Justice Department indictments (for Maduro, the fear is ending up like former Panamanian strongman Manuel Noriega who was captured when U.S. military forces invaded the country and arrested him. . Noriega ended up dying in a Panamanian prison in 2017 after serving years in a U.S. “Supermax” prison in Colorado). Maduro is unlikely to take a deal, instead seeking stronger relations with Russia, Iran, Cuba, and other rogue regimes for support.

Finally, Ukraine’s audacious military incursion into Russia’s Kursk region has shocked Russia’s leadership and population, showing how large areas of southwestern parts of Russia were left vulnerable and undefended. Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared “a federal-level emergency” and ordered a rush of reinforcements. It will be quite interesting to see how this changes the dynamics of the war but at the very least, it has doubtless left a lot of Russian’s questioning Putin’s leadership.

On the global radar screen this week, markets are gearing up for the Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium (August 22-24). There are no major central bank speeches this coming week.

Meanwhile, markets are waiting to see the release of the U.S. July CPI figures and retail sales numbers this week. Markets are also watching for China’s July PMIs and Japan’s GDP figure for the second quarter and July PPI print. Additionally, Beijing will publish a 70-city housing price data report, likely to provide further insight into the struggling real estate market. India reports inflation data and trade balance numbers for July.

In Europe, the U.K. has several important data releases this week: first, employment numbers (Tuesday), then the inflation print on Wednesday, and the monthly GDP figure on Thursday. These numbers will be the headline data releases this week. Germany’s ZEW survey comes out this week, too, likely to give further evidence of continued economic weakness.

Below is our full report of all the major geopolitical and economic events we are watching in the coming week:

Sunday, August 11, 2024

Global

· Today is the final day of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US ban on the importation of Russian uranium takes place.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· India's Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar will travel to the Maldives for an official visit through Aug. 11.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The United States, Germany, the United Kingdom and Morocco will conduct the Arcane Thunder 24 military exercise in Germany and Morocco through August 16.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (June)

· Israel Consumer Confidence (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame will be sworn in to office after being re-elected in July.

· Chad celebrates its Independence Day, marking when the country gained its independence from France in 1960.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, August 12, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on maintenance of international peace and security: Addressing the historical injustice and enhancing Africa’s effective representation in the Security Council. The Secretary-General of the United Nations will have remarks. In the afternoon, the Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on African Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). Additionally, a Counter-Terrorism Committee (1373 Committee) of the Security Council will begin formal meeting in New York.

· OPEC releases its monthly oil market report.

· Today is the 75th Anniversary of the signing of the Fourth Geneva Convention, which goes to the protection of civilians in a time of war.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (July)

· Canada Building Permits (June)

· Brazil Business Confidence (August)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (July)/ WASDE Report/ Monthly Budget Statement (July)

· Paraguay Balance of Trade (July)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The liquidation hearing for Chinese developer Shimao will resume in Hong Kong.

· Fiji Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka will visit China through August. 21.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia RBA Hauser Speech/ NAB Business Confidence (July)

· Singapore GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ Current Account Q2

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment MAY

· Malaysia Construction Output Q2

· Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· Kazakhstan Unemployment Rate Q2/ PPI (July)

· India Industrial Production (June)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ Manufacturing Production (June)

· China Vehicle Sales (July)/ New Yuan Loans (July)/ M2 Money Supply (July)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (July)/ Total Social Financing (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will visit Russia through August 14 to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the situation in Gaza. This is his first visit to Russia since 2021. Abbas will then go to Turkey to meet with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan where he will also address the Turkish Parliament.

· Germany’s Interior Minister Nancy Faeser gives statement on security situation in Germany. Faeser is likely to speak about airport security after climate activists were able to breach fences and disrupt air traffic in late July.

· Russia holds its 2024 Army Forum through August 14. The Forum will focus on the “special military operation in Ukraine” showcasing the Russian Army’s weapons, promoting the sale of weapons in foreign markets.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ireland Construction PMI (July)

· Romania Inflation Rate (July)

· Turkey Unemployment Rate (June)/ Participation Rate (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

· Russia Inflation Rate (July)/ Balance of Trade (June)

· Germany Current Account (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Soft Computing will bring together leading academic scientists, and researchers to Alexandria, Egypt.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Qatar M2 Money Supply (June)/ Total Credit Growth (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Jordan Inflation Rate (July)

· Israel Manufacturing PMI (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The inaugural East Africa Community Regional Conference on Education will take place in Arusha, Tanzania.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Angola Wholesale Prices (July)

Tuesday, August 13, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS), followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the 3rd anniversary of the US evacuation of Afghanistan and the takeover of the country by the Taliban.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to speak on the economic outlook in a moderated conversation before the Conference of African American Financial Professionals.

· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (July)/ PPI (July)/ Redbook (August/10)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/09)

· Ecuador Balance of Trade (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Export Prices (July)/ Import Prices (July)

· New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (June)

· Japan PPI (July)/ Machine Tool Orders (July)

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change & Index (August)/ Wage Price Index Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Great Britain Unemployment Rate (June)/ Employment Change (June)/ Claimant Count Change (July)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (July)

· Spain Core Inflation Rate Final (July)

· Turkey Current Account (June)

· Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (August)

· France IEA Oil Market Report

· Romania Current Account (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Unemployment Rate Q2/ Unemployed Persons Q2/ Gold Production (June)/ Mining Production (June)

Wednesday, August 14, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA MBA Purchase Index (August/09)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/09)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ CPI (July)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (August/09)

· Brazil Retail Sales (June)

· Colombia Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

· Paraguay Consumer Confidence (July)

· Argentina Inflation Rate (July)

· El Salvador Inflation Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Thailand’s Constitution Court will decide whether to remove Prime Minister Sretha Thavasin from office for violating ethics laws by appointing a cabinet member with a criminal record.

· Jeepney drivers in the Philippines will stage a transport strike through August 16.

· The Island Country of Kiribati (part of the Micronesian subregion) holds parliamentary elections. Run-off elections will be held on August 19.

· Today is Independence Day in Pakistan. Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Unemployment Rate (July)

· New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision/ RBNZ Press Conference

· India WPI Food Index (July)/ WPI Fuel (July)/ WPI Inflation (July)/ WPI Manufacturing (July)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Collective Security Treaty Organization (Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and the Republic of Tajikistan) will hold the exercise "Cobalt-2024" through August 16 in Novosibirsk, Russia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Romania GDP Growth Rate Prel Q2/ Industrial Production (June)

· Great Britain Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI Input & Output (July)/ Retail Price Index (July)

· Hungary Industrial Production Final (June)

· France Inflation Rate Final (July)

· Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Prel Q2

· Poland GDP Growth Rate Prel Q2/ Inflation Rate Final (July)/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Current Account (June)

· Slovenia GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Euro Area Employment Change Prel Q2/ GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est Q2/ Industrial Production (June)

· Ireland Residential Property Prices (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· In Switzerland, a US-mediated ceasefire talks will begin between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. The African Union, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and the UN are involved as observers.

· The Institute of Security Studies will hold an event in Pretoria, South Africa to discuss how South Africa’s unity government can manage migration.

· The Connected Banking Summit will take place in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Retail Sales (June)

· Angola Inflation Rate (July)

· Ethiopia Inflation Rate (July)

· Mozambique Inflation Rate (July)

Thursday, August 15, 2024

Global

The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Yemen).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum will hold its Energy Ministerial Meeting in Lima, Peru, though August 16.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (June)

· St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem to speak on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Greater Louisville Inc. Regional Economic Development Update.

· Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on "Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia' Center for the Restoration of Economic Data (CREED)" before the "From Rasters to Rows: New Methods and Applications in Automated Data Extraction" event.

· USA Retail Sales (July)/ Initial Jobless Claims (August/10)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (August)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (August)/ Export Prices (July)/ Import Prices (July)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (August)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (August)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Capacity Utilization (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (August/09)/ NOPA Crush Report/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (June)/ Foreign Bond Investment (June)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (June)/ Fed Balance Sheet (August/14)

· Colombia GDP Growth Rate Q2/ ISE Economic Activity (June)

· Peru GDP Growth Rate (June)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is India Independence Day, marking the day in 1947 when Jawaharial Nehur, the first Prime Minister of India, raised the Indian flag above the Lahori Gate in Delhi. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to give a national speech.

· South Korea will celebrate Liberation (or Independence) Day, a public holiday. According to Nikkei News, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol is expected to make a speech outlining his vision for unification with North Korea on the occasion of the South's independence day. Yoon's administration has been openly critical of the North's human rights abuses, particularly Pyongyang's insistence on developing ever-more powerful weapons as its citizens lack basic rights.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (July)/ Food Inflation (July)

· Japan GDP Growth Annualized Prel Q2/ Foreign Bond Investment (August/10)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August/10)/ Capacity Utilization (June)/ Industrial Production Final (June)

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)/ Employment Change (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ Participation Rate (July)

· China House Price Index (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ NBS Press Conference

· Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

· Philippines Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Remittances (June)

· Kazakhstan GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (July)

· India Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

· Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Services PMI (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Liechtenstein National Day, celebrating when the Principality of Liechtenstein declared August 15 a public holiday in 1940 in response to Adolf Hitler declaring that small states had no right to exist.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Great Britain GDP Growth Rate Prel Q2/ GDP (June)/ Business Investment Prel Q2/ Goods Trade Balance (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Construction Output (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (July)/ Labour Productivity Q2

· Hungary Construction Output (June)

· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (July)

· Slovakia Core Inflation Rate (July)

· Ireland Balance of Trade (June)

· Serbia Building Permits (June)

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/09)/ Budget Balance (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Israeli negotiators will attend hostage talks in either Doha, Qatar, or Cairo, Egypt, though it is unclear whether Hamas negotiators will attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (July)/ Wholesale Prices (July)

· Israel Inflation Rate (July)/ M1 Money Supply (June)/ M1 Money Supply (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Building Permits (June)

· Nigeria Food Inflation (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)

· Egypt Unemployment Rate Q2

Friday, August 16, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Dominican Republic President Luis Abinader will be inaugurated for his second term in office. Today is also Restoration Day in in the Dominican Republic, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (June)

· Canada Housing Starts (July)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (June)/ Manufacturing Sales Final (June)/ Wholesale Sales Final (June)

· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austin Goolsbee participates in a fireside chat with Angeles Investors in Chicago.

· USA Building Permits Prel (July)/ Housing Starts (July)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (August)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/16)

· Colombia Balance of Trade (June)/ Imports (June)

· Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi travels to Thailand for meetings with Foreign Minister Sangiampongsa. The two nations have enjoyed close relations in the past, but Prime Minister Sretha Thavisin has increasingly sought to broaden relations with other nations in the face of China’s slowing economy (Thailand is a major tourist destination for Chinese). This includes moving toward better relations with the US, which were strained after a military coup in 2014 – all of which is making Beijing nervous.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (July)/ PPI Input & Output Q2

· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (August)/ Tertiary Industry Index (June)

· Singapore Non-Oil Exports (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)

· Australia Westpac Leading Index (July)

· Malaysia Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

· Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ Unemployment Rate (July)

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/09)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany Wholesale Prices (July)

· Great Britain Retail Sales (July)

· Switzerland Industrial Production Q2

· Euro Area Balance of Trade (June)

· Serbia Current Account (June)

· Poland Core Inflation Rate (July)

· Belarus Industrial Production (July)/ GDP (July)

· Ukraine Balance of Trade (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (June)/ SACCI Business Confidence (July)

· Angola M3 Money Supply (July)

· Ghana PPI (July)

Saturday, August 17, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· India hosts the 3rd Global South Summit in New Delhi. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will chair the meetings. More than 25 countries will be attendance – either in person or virtually and the topics will include climate change, development of alternative energy, and agricultural advancements.

· The Indonesia Government will inaugurate Nusantara as its new capital. It is also Indonesia Independence Day, marking when the Netherlands granted the country its freedom in 1945.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· In Zimbabwe, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) summit of heads of state and government meet to discuss economic growth and development.

· Today is Independence Day, marking when the country was granted its freedom from France in 1960.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, August 18, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In Singapore, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong delivers the annual National Day Rally speech, his inaugural address after taking office on May 15. He is Singapore’s fourth prime minister and his becoming Prime Minister is the nation’s first leadership change in 20 years.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel GDP Growth Annualized 1st Est Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 8/9/24 Francis Kelly 8/9/24

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

August 12 - 16, 2024

Giving You Back Your Five Minutes…

We want to give you back the five minutes you would normally spend reading the U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead by saying right up front: There is nothing going on, and thus, there is nothing to read in this week’s report. Washington regulators are all out on vacation.

We Hope you are enjoying this quiet time, too. But, just for the record, below is a listing of the one event we could find scheduled – an SEC Closed Meeting on Thursday – taking place this coming week in Washington:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· The Senate is out of session for the month of August and returns to work on September 9.

House of Representatives

· The House is out of session for the month of August and returns to work on September 9.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Thursday, August 15, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 8/9/24 Francis Kelly 8/9/24

The Global Week Ahead

The World Waits and Watches for Iran’s Retaliatory Response, Harris to Announce Her Vice-Presidential Running Mate, And a Fairly Quiet Week in the Global Markets

It may be the Dog Days of Summer in the Northern Hemisphere, with Washington, Brussels, and many other G7 capitals emptied for much-needed vacations. But markets are closely watching the Middle East as tensions reached a new high point as Iran is likely to launch retaliatory strikes against Israel following the assassination of Hezbollah leader Fuad Shukr in Lebanon and Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. The US has bolstered its naval presence in the region in a show of support for Israel. But they are also there as the risk of Iranian-backed militia groups in Syria and Iraq will attack US military targets in the region, too.

Meanwhile, following successful meetings of the Quad (India, Japan, Australia, and the US) foreign ministers and defense ministers last week, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will hold "2+2" meetings in Annapolis, Maryland, with their counterparts from Australia. The conference aims to further strengthen security and diplomatic relations between the two nations, particularly around the AUKUS (Australia, UK, US) security arrangement, in the face of growing Chinese aggressive behavior in the Indo-Pacific.

Finally, US Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to announce her running mate on Wednesday, capping three weeks of extraordinary momentum as she seeks to win the presidency in November. The Democratic Convention begins on August 19.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, there are no major central bank speeches scheduled as most central bankers are on vacation in advance of the annual Jackson Hole Conference on August 22. But there are still a healthy number of economic reports being released.

Markets will focus on the Bank of Japan's summary of opinions following last week's interest rate increase. Also, in Asia this week, China will release its inflation print and trade figures on Friday.

Europe is mostly quiet this week, aside from Germany and France releasing factory orders and industrial production figures.

Finally, in the US, the ISM services index and international trade balance figures are released this week, as well as the Fed's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, which offers a clearer snapshot of credit conditions.

Here is what else we are watching closely around the world this coming week:

Sunday, August 4, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Philippines Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo will visit Mongolia

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to meet with Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, August 5, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on ICC Sudan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Vice President Kamala Harris will meet with prospective vice presidential running mates.

· Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva visits Chile through August 6.

· The Panama Canal Authority will increase daily transits to 35 in another step to normalize the shipping route after a severe drought in 2023 forced authorities to restrict transits.

Economic Reports/Events –

· San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly to discuss monetary policy and economic trends before moderated conversation hosted in partnership with the Hawaii Executive Collaborative.

· Canada Average Hourly Wages (July)

· Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· USA S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (July)/ ISM Services PMI/ Services Business Activity/ Services Employment/ Services New Orders/ Services Prices (July)/ Loan Officer Survey

· Colombia Exports (June)/ PPI (July)

· Uruguay Inflation Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· Australia Judo Bank Composite & Services PMI Final (July)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM (July)

· Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMI Final (July)

· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (July)

· Singapore S&P Global PMI (July)/ Retail Sales (June)

· China Caixin Composite & Services PMI (July)

· Indonesia GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Thailand Inflation Rate (July)

· India HSBC Composite & Services PMI Final (July)

· Kazakhstan S&P Global Services PMI (July)

· Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Spain Industrial Production (June)/ HCOB Composite PMI (July)

· Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)/ Vehicle Sales (July)/ Monetary Policy Report

· Hungary Balance of Trade Prel (June)

· Turkey Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI (July)

· Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (July)

· France HCOB Composite & Services PMI (July)

· Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (July)/ New Car Registrations (July)

· Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (July)/ PPI (June)

· Great Britain New Car Sales (July)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (July)

· Serbia PPI (July)

· Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The US, Germany, the UK, and Morocco will conduct the Arcane Thunder 24 military exercise in Germany and Morocco through Aug. 16.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (July)

· United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (July)

· Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (July)

· Qatar Qatar Financial Centre PMI (July)/ M2 Money Supply (June)/ Total Credit Growth (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Jordan PPI (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Linguists and language researchers will convene in Nairobi for the World Congress of African Linguistics to discuss the use of African languages for development.

· Burkina Faso celebrates Independence Day, marking the day the country gained its freedom from France in 1960.

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt S&P Global PMI (July)

· Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (July)

· South Africa S&P Global PMI (July)

· Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (July)

Tuesday, August 6, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S Secretary of State Antony Blinken and U.S Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin will hold talks with their Australian counterparts, Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Minister for Defense Richard Marles, in Annapolis, Maryland as part of the 34th Australia-U.S Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN). The focus of the meetings will be to find new ways to further strengthen US-Australian security ties in the face of growing Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific.

· In Miami, Florida, the sentencing of former British Virgin Islands premier Andrew Fahie, convicted of multiple charges, including conspiracy to import a controlled substance, conspiracy to commit money laundering, and foreign travel in aid of racketeering.

· Bolivia celebrates Independence Day, marking the day it won its independence from Spain in 1825.

· Today is Independence Day in Jamaica, marking when the island country gained its full independence from the UK in 1962.

· El Salvador celebrates San Salvador Day, a national holiday. The day celebrates the feast of the Divine Savior of the World, who El Salvador is named after.

· Today is Culturama Day, a public holiday celebrated in Saint Kitts and Nevis in honor of the islands’ cultural history.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ Car Production MoM (July)/ New Car Registrations MoM (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)

· Mexico Auto Exports (July)/ Auto Production (July)

· Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)

· USA Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Redbook (August/03)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (August)/ Total Household Debt Q2/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/02)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (July)

· Ecuador Inflation Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo will end his visit to Mongolia and begin a visit to South Korea.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Average Cash Earnings (June)/ Household Spending (June)/ Overtime Pay (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· Philippines Inflation Rate (July)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

· Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision, Australia ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM (July)/ Building Permits MoM Final (June)/ Private House Approvals MoM Final (June)

· Taiwan Inflation Rate (July)

· New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (August/06)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (July)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (July)

· Ireland AIB Services PMI (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (July)/ Retail Sales (June)

· Germany Factory Orders MoM (June)/ HCOB Construction PMI (July)

· Romania Retail Sales (June)

· Hungary Retail Sales (June)

· France Private Non-Farm Payrolls QoQ Prel Q2/ HCOB Construction PMI (July)

· Slovakia Retail Sales (June)

· Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (July)/ Retail Sales (June)

· Italy HCOB Construction PMI (July)

· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Business Confidence (July)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The General Assembly of the International Astronomical Union, the first to be held in Africa, will take place in Cape Town.

· Today is Independence Day in the Ivory Coast, marking when the nation gained its independence from France.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ghana S&P Global PMI (July)

· Kenya Interest Rate Decision

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

Wednesday, August 7, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Women and peace and security: Sustaining WPS commitments in the context of accelerated drawdown of peace operation.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Presidential candidate Kamala Harris is expected to announce her vice presidential running mate.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/02)/ MBA Purchase Index (August/02)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (August/02)/ Consumer Credit Change (June)/ Used Car Prices (July)

· Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

· Canada Ivey PMI s.a (July)/ BoC Summary of Deliberations

· Peru Balance of Trade (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Thailand’s Constitutional Court will rule on whether the opposition Move Forward Party should be dissolved.

· Japan and the US will conclude the joint military exercise Resolute Dragon in Okinawa, which began on July 28.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Unemployment Rate Q2/ Labour Costs Index Q2/ Participation Rate Q2

· Australia Ai Group Industry/ Construction/ Manufacturing Index (July)/ RBA Chart Pack

· South Korea Current Account (June)

· Philippines Unemployment Rate (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· Japan Coincident Index Prel (June)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (June)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· China Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· India M3 Money Supply (July/26)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Italian government will hold a cabinet meeting, with discussions possibly including a potential windfall tax the government is considering imposing on banks and other companies.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates on a panel discussion at the 2024 Yale Program on Financial Stability Financial Crisis Forum in New Haven, Connecticut.

· Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Industrial Production (June)

· Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (July)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (July)

· Hungary Industrial Production Prel (June)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· France Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· Greece Balance of Trade (June)

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· Romania Interest Rate Decision

· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

Thursday, August 8, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). The Security Council is also scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security caused by terrorist acts.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Chile Inflation Rate (July)

· Mexico Inflation Rate (July)/ Interest Rate Decision

· USA Initial Jobless Claims (August/03)/ Wholesale Inventories (June)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (August/02)/ Fed Barkin Speech/ Fed Balance Sheet (August/7)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (July)

· Argentina Industrial Production (June)

· Colombia Inflation Rate (July)

· Peru Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is ASEAN Day, marking the signing of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations declaration by the five founding members, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, 57 years ago. The body now has 10 members.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions/ Current Account (June)/ Bank Lending (July)/ Foreign Bond Investment (August/03)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current (July)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (July)

· Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock delivers the annual Rotary club lecture in Armidale, Australia.

· Australia NAB Business Confidence (July)

· Philippines GDP Growth Rate Q2

· China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

· New Zealand Business Inflation Expectations Q3

· Malaysia Retail Sales (June)

· India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (July)/ Car Sales (July)

· Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

· Kazakhstan Current Account Q2/ PPI (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (July)

· Hungary Inflation Rate (July)/ Budget Balance (July)

· France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Current Account (June)

· Turkey Inflation Report/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/02)

· Ireland Inflation Rate (July)

· Serbia Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing PMI (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Manufacturing Production (June)

Friday, August 9, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the 50th anniversary of President Richard Nixon’s leaving office the day after he resigned.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil Inflation Rate (July)

· Mexico Industrial Production (June)

· Canada Unemployment Rate (July)/ Employment Change (July)/ Participation Rate (July)/ Part & Full-Time Employment Chg (July)

· Colombia Consumer Confidence (July)

· USA Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/09)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida begins a three-day trip to Central Asia. He will hold the first joint summit with the leaders of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan. The meetings will focus on how to boost trade as well as establishing stronger diplomatic relations. Japan is eager to build stronger ties with these nations as they are energy and mineral-rich.

· Singapore celebrates its Independence Day, marking the day when the country won its independence from Malaysia in 1965.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (May)

· China Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI (July)/ Current Account Prel Q2

· Indonesia Retail Sales (June)/ Motorbike Sales (July)

· Malaysia Industrial Production (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (July)

· India Bank Loan Growth (July)/26/ Deposit Growth (July)/26/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/02)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· France Unemployment Rate Q2

· Germany Inflation Rate Final (July)

· Romania Balance of Trade (June)

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (June)/ Construction Output (June)/ Industrial Production (June)

· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (July)

· Turkey Industrial Production (June)/ Auto Production & Sales (July)

· Italy Inflation Rate Final (July)/ Balance of Trade (June)

· Slovenia Industrial Production (June)

· Greece Industrial Production (June)/ Inflation Rate (July)

· Ireland Industrial Production (June)

· Ukraine Inflation Rate (July)

· Belarus Inflation Rate (July)

· Russia GDP Growth Rate Prel Q2/ Inflation Rate (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt Inflation Rate (July)

· Ghana Inflation Rate (July)

· Tanzania Inflation Rate (July)

Saturday, August 10, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Ecuador celebrates its Independence Day, marking when the country won its independence from Spain in 1822.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· In London, the Divest for Palestine conference begins. The purpose of the conference is to demand that local councils, universities, cultural institutions, and financial institutions cut their ties with and divest their funds from companies that are arming and supporting Israel.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, August 11, 2024

Global

· Today is the final day of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US ban on the importation of Russian uranium takes place.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (June)

· Israel Consumer Confidence (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame will be sworn in to office after being re-elected in July.

· Chad celebrates its Independence Day, marking when the country gained its independence from France in 1960.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 8/4/24 Francis Kelly 8/4/24

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Summer Break Comes to Washington

August 5 - 9 , 2024

Last week, we said the Dog Days of Summer were not officially here. Well, this week, they are here in force. Washington collectively ran out of town for the summer holidays. There is very little going on this coming week – no Fed speeches, no big regulatory agency meetings, no Congressional hearings, not many think tank events or trade association events. So, for now, we should all enjoy the quiet.

But last week was anything but quiet. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) issued a bipartisan agreement among the board on a proposed rulemaking to step up oversight of asset managers and the amount of shares in banks that they own. Until now, this has been a self-certification process with the asset managers promising to live by the rules. No more. Bank examiners will be looking much more closely at who owns what amount of shares in banks – something the asset management industry does not like. But when you have the FDIC Board – Republicans included – agreeing more has to be done, that is tough to fight back against. You can read all the materials and proposed rulemaking by the FDIC HERE.

But that was not the only action happening at the FDIC last week: The agency’s Inspector General released a scathing report further detailing the abusive atmosphere allowed to persist among employees, including how FDIC leadership failed to properly address allegations of sexual harassment of employees or to implement programs designed to prevent such misconduct. The Inspector General also revealed a separate report is forthcoming detailing “FDIC executives’ knowledge of harassment and related misconduct” as well as “factual findings regarding selected allegations that senior officials personally engaged in harassment or related misconduct.”

Somehow, FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg continues to hold onto his seat, saying he will step down only when a replacement is confirmed by the Senate – which, considering the Senate Banking Committee failed to move on an expected confirmation vote last week, kicking it into September – makes us believe Gruenberg could be still sitting in the chair for months and months to come. That is a true scandal in and of itself.

Turning to Congress, the House of Representatives left for the summer break two weeks ago while the Senate was in session last week. Despite hanging around and extra week, they did not get two expected actions done: First, as mentioned above, the Senate Banking Committee did not move on the nomination of Christy Goldsmith Romero as the next FDIC Chair. Senate Banking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown (D-OH) put it off until September. But we think he will still have trouble moving the nomination forward as – so far – all Republicans oppose her nomination.

Over at the Senate Agriculture Committee, Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) pulled back from marking up her crypto regulatory bill, also choosing to wait until the Senate comes back in September. We have a feeling the dynamics and concerns over the draft bill will be pretty much unchanged by then, ending Stabenow’s efforts (she is retiring at the end of this session).

Meanwhile, the House of Representatives – while out of session – still fired off two missives of note. First, the House Republican Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Working Group—led by Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee Chairman Bill Huizenga (MI-04)—released its final staff report Thursday. The report is the culmination of the Working Group’s comprehensive examination of the factors contributing to the rise of ESG initiatives and the consequences for everyday investors, in addition to recommendations to protect American capital markets from the threats posed by these politically motivated mandates.

The report calls for legislative action on a number of major points, including:

Reform the proxy voting system to safeguard the interests of retail investors.
Promote transparency, accountability, and accuracy in the proxy advisory system.
Enhance accountability in shareholder voting by aligning voting decisions with the economic interests of shareholders.
Increase transparency and oversight of large asset managers to ensure their practices reflect the pecuniary interest of retail investors.
Improve ESG rating agency accountability and transparency to safeguard retail shareholders.
Strengthen oversight and conduct thorough investigations into federal regulatory efforts that would contort our financial system into a vehicle to implement climate policy.
Demand transparency, responsibility, and adherence to statutory limits from financial and consumer regulatory agencies.
Protect U.S. companies from burdensome European Union (“EU”) regulations, safeguarding American interests in global markets.

You can read the full report HERE.

And second, this past Wednesday, the Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, Patrick McHenry (R-NC), and all the Committee Republicans sent a letter to Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell demanding the Fed withdraw and re-propose the Basel III Endgame rulemaking in its entirety, given the substantial changes to its original form. The letter follows Chairman Powell’s testimony before the Committee in support of re-proposal where he suggested it needed substantial re-writes. You can read the full letter HERE. It is another hammer blow against the draft rules, which are already on life-support as Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr scrambles to salvage the proposal.

Below is a listing of all the other (very few) significant regulatory-related events this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

The Senate is out for the month of August and returns on September 9. No events are scheduled at this time.

House of Representatives

The House is out for the month of August and returns on September 9. No events are scheduled at this time.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

Monday, August 5, 4 p.m. – San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly will discuss monetary policy and economic trends before moderated conversation hosted in partnership with the Hawaii Executive Collaborative in Hawaii.
Thursday, August 8, 3:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Tom Barkin speaks virtually at The National Association for Business Economics.

U.S. Treasury Department

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

Thursday, August 8, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

Thursday, August 8, 10:00 a.m. – The FCA Board will meet to receive the annual report on the Farm Credit System’s Young, Beginning, and Small Farmers and Ranchers Mission Performance.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

Wednesday, August 7, 12:30 p.m. – The Competitive Enterprise Institute holds a discussion on "A Global Antitrust Paradox?," focusing on "the effects of heightened antitrust scrutiny on U.S. industry and national security."

Think Tanks and Other Events

Wednesday, August 7, 8:30 a.m. – Politico is hosting an event entitled “Finding Balance: What’s Next for Social Security” in New York.
Thursday, August 8, 3:00 p.m. – The National Association for Business Economics holds a virtual discussion with Tom Barkin, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 8/2/24 Francis Kelly 8/2/24

The Global Week Ahead

July 28 - August 4, 2024

Much of the world is focused on the Olympic Games in Paris this week, while summer holidays are beginning for many in the Northern Hemisphere. But there are still plenty of important meetings and events happening this week around the world.

Asia will be a massive focus for the U.S. this coming week as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin conduct two separate “2+2” meetings – the first with their counterparts in Japan and the second with their counterparts in the Philippines. The two sets of meetings aim to bolster U.S. military alliances with the two countries significantly. Before the US-Japan meetings, the U.S. Defense Department announced the very significant establishment of a new U.S. military command in Japan, one of the most important restructurings in the U.S. command structure in Asia in decades. And then the week after next, Blinken and Austin will then host a 2+2 meeting with their Australian counterparts (August 6), further cementing the U.S.’ new enhanced security structure in the region.

Also this week, the European Union begins transferring the interest income from frozen Russian bank accounts to Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin has vowed to retaliate and is likely to confiscate Western financial assets and securities held in special accounts in Moscow.

However, the most significant events this week came from several of the G7 central banks. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee meets to discuss the economy and interest rate adjustments—a likely 25-basis point cut. The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are also meeting this week to decide interest rates. There is a good chance the Bank of Japan will raise rates while the Bank of England moves to cut rates.

Elsewhere on the global economic radar screen this week, markets will look at the U.S. jobs report on Friday, and JOLTS and ADP figures will also be released earlier in the week. In Europe, the Eurozone, Germany, and France release GDP figures and CPI reports this week.

Finally, returning to Asia, China releases PMIs and the Caixin manufacturing PMI this week and will give some further clarity to the struggling Chinese economy.

Below is what else we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, July 28, 2024

Global

Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Venezuela holds presidential elections.
Peru celebrates its Independence Day, with President Dina Boluarte scheduled to give a speech to Congress.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The United States and Japan will hold a 2+2 meeting of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin with Japanese Foreign Minister Yōko Kamikawa and Defense Minister Minoru Kihara in Tokyo, Japan. The meetings will focus on bolstering military cooperation between the US and Japan in the face of growing Chinese aggressive behavior in the region. In advance of the meetings, the US Defense Department announced the creation of a new command structure in Japan, overseeing the more than 50,000 US troops in Japan and empowered to work more closely with the growing Japanese defense structure.

· China’s Special Representative of the Chinese Government on Eurasian Affairs Li Hui will visit Brazil, South Africa, and Indonesia to conduct the fourth round of shuttle diplomacy on the War on Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

Indonesia Foreign Direct Investment Q2
Thailand Industrial Production (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni continues her state visit to China through July 31. Meloni, who also is the chair of the G7 this year, is seeking to improve relations with China after she pulled Italy out of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

· Russian President Vladimir Putin will attend a naval parade in St. Petersburg to celebrate Russia's Navy Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian will be sworn into office.

Economic Reports/Events –

Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (June)/ Private Bank Lending (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

President of the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste José Ramos-Horta will pay a state visit to China through July 31.
The South African Development Community will host the 7th Annual Industrialization Week in Harare, Zimbabwe.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Monday, July 29, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on Sudan

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil IGP-M Inflation (July)/ Gross Debt to GDP (June)/ Nominal Budget Balance (June)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (July)/ Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates

· Mexico Fiscal Balance (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida hosts a foreign ministers’ meeting – the 8th summit – of the Quad, Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, in Tokyo. The ministers are expected to oppose the growing militarization of the South China Sea, pledge further collaboration on preventing cyber-attacks in the region, and discuss the establishment and maintenance of resilient supply chains. The gathering will follow meetings between the Japanese, U.S., and South Korean defense ministers on Sunday and will set the stage for a Quad leaders' meeting in India later this year.

· Today is Wallis and Futuna Territory Day, celebrating the islands becoming a French Overseas Territory in 1961.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Taiwan Consumer Confidence (July)

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

· Malaysia PPI (June)

· Singapore Export Prices (June)/ Import Prices (June)/ PPI (June)

· China FDI (YTD) (June)

· Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The United Kingdom's new Labour Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, will unveil a Treasury analysis highlighting the fiscal situation her government has inherited from its Conservative predecessor, and she will announce reforms to the National Planning Policy Framework. She is expected to accuse the former Conservative Party of causing a £20 billion shortfall to the government budget.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Switzerland Retail Sales (June)

· Slovenia Retail Sales (June)

· Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (June)/ Mortgage Approvals & Lending (June)/ M4 Money Supply (June)/ Net Lending to Individuals (June)/ CBI Distributive Trades (July)

· Ireland GDP Growth Rate Prel Q2/ Retail Sales (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Chilean President Gabriel Boric will visit the United Arab Emirates seeking new investment and economic ties between the two countries.

Economic Reports/Events –

· IMF conducts its third review in advance of issuing a third tranche worth $820 million of an Egypt loan.

· Qatar M2 Money Supply (June)/ Total Credit Growth (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Inflation Rate (June)

· Israel Manufacturing Production (May)/ Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Kuwait M2 Money Supply (June)/ Private Bank Lending (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa M3 Money Supply (June)/ Private Sector Credit (June)

· Ghana Interest Rate Decision

· Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (June)

Tuesday, July 30, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on Central African Republic (CAR) sanctions.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil PPI (June)

· Mexico GDP Growth Rate Prel Q2

· USA Redbook (July/27)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (May)/ House Price Index (May)/ JOLTs Job Openings (June)/ CB Consumer Confidence (July)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (July)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (July/26)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The US and Philippines hold a 2+2 dialogue (foreign ministers and defense ministers), in Manila to discuss mutual diplomatic and security issues. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will meet with their Filipino counterparts Defense Minister Gilbert Teodoro and Foreign Minister Enrique Manalo. The meeting comes on the heels of similar talks between Manila and Tokyo in early July. The discussions aim to bolster the U.S.-Philippine alliance, which has deepened significantly under the Marcos Jr. administration as the country shifts its foreign policy closer to Washington.

· EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell visits Hanoi, where he will meet Vietnamese authorities to discuss foreign affairs, security and climate policy.

· Today is Vanuatu Independence Day, marking the day in 1980 when the country gained its independence from the joint rule of the UK and France.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Philippines PPI (June)

· Australia Building Permits Prel (June)/ Private House Approvals Prel (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez is expected to testify in the corruption probe of his wife, Begona Gomez. The Spanish First Lady has been accused of influence peddling and corruption after a complaint was filed by an anti-graft NGO.

Economic Reports/Events –

· France GDP Growth Rate Prel Q2/ Household Consumption (June)

· Hungary GDP Growth Rate Prel Q2

· Slovakia Business Confidence (July)/ Consumer Confidence (July)

· Spain GDP Growth Rate Flash Q2/ Inflation Rate Prel (July)/ Business Confidence (July)

· Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (July)

· Turkey Economic Confidence Index (July)

· Germany GDP Growth Rate Flash Q2/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (July)/ Bavaria CPI (July)/ Brandenburg CPI (July)/ Hesse CPI (July)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (July)/ Saxony CPI (July)/ Inflation Rate Prel (July)

· Italy GDP Growth Rate Adv Q2

· Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Flash Q2/ Economic Sentiment (July)/ Consumer Confidence Final (July)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (July)/ Industrial Sentiment (July)/ Selling Price Expectations (July)/ Services Sentiment (July)

· Greece PPI (June)

· Ireland Inflation Rate Prel (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel M1 Money Supply (June)/ Composite Economic Index (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Budget Balance (June)

Wednesday, July 31, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee announces its rate decision.

· The Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee rate-setting decision

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (July/26)/ ADP Employment Change (July)/ Employment Cost Index Q2/ Treasury Refunding Announcement/ Chicago PMI (July)/ Pending Home Sales (June)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (July/26)/ Fed Interest Rate Decision/ Fed Press Conference

· Brazil Unemployment Rate (June)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Canada GDP (May)

· Chile Copper Production (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Mexico Interest Rate Decision

· Colombia Unemployment Rate (June)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (June)

· Uruguay Balance of Trade (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet with Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong and the co-chairs of the US-Singapore Critical and Emerging Technology Dialogue in Singapore. The purpose of the meeting is to “advance initiatives to strengthen ties between our innovation ecosystems and reduce barriers to collaboration while protecting national security. The growing bilateral discussion regarding critical and emerging technologies further underscores the importance of the U.S.-Singapore strategic partnership in facilitating a free, open, connected, prosperous, secure, and resilient Indo-Pacific region.”

· Myanmar’s military dictatorship may call an extraordinary National Defense and Security Council meeting to decide whether to extend the state of emergency (which is renewed every six months).

Economic Reports/Events –

· The Bank of Japan announces its interest rate decision.

· Japan Unemployment Rate (June)/ Jobs to Applications ratio (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Industrial Production Prel (June)/ BoJ Interest Rate Decision/ BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report/ Consumer Confidence (July)/ Housing Starts (June)/ Construction Orders (June)

· New Zealand Building Permits (June)/ ANZ Business Confidence (July)

· South Korea Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

· Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (July)/ Monthly CPI Indicator (June)/ Housing Credit (June)/ Inflation Rate Q2/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q2/ Retail Sales (June)/ CPI Q2/ Private Sector Credit (June)/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (July)

· China NBS General, Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Singapore Bank Lending (June)/ Unemployment Rate Prel Q2/ Business Confidence Q2

· Malaysia M3 Money Supply (June)

· Thailand Current Account (June)/ Private Consumption (June)/ Retail Sales (May)

· Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Adv Q2

· Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Adv Q2

· Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)

· India Infrastructure Output (June)/ Government Budget Value (June)

· Pakistan Consumer Confidence (June)/ Consumer Confidence (July)

· Indonesia M3 Money Supply (July/12)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany Import Prices (June)/ Unemployed Persons (July)/ Unemployment Change (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

· Hungary PPI (June)

· France Inflation Rate Prel (July)/ PPI (June)

· Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (June)/ Tourism Revenues Q2/ Tourist Arrivals (June)

· Italy Industrial Sales (May)/ Inflation Rate Prel (July)/ PPI (June)

· Poland Inflation Rate Prel (July)

· Spain Current Account (May)

· Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (July)

· Slovenia Inflation Rate (July)

· Euro Area Inflation Rate Flash (July)/ CPI Flash (July)

· Greece Retail Sales (May)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

· Ireland Unemployment Rate (July)

· Serbia Balance of Trade (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Flash Q2/ Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

· Russia Unemployment Rate (June)/ Business Confidence (July)/ Real Wage Growth (May)/ Retail Sales (June)/ M2 Money Supply (June)/ GDP (June)

· Ukraine Current Account (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Prel Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· South Africa Balance of Trade (June)

· Kenya Inflation Rate (July)

· Egypt M2 Money Supply (June)

Thursday, August 1, 2024

Global

· Sierra Leon assumes the chair of the UN Security Council.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Democratic Party begins a virtual roll call vote window through August 7 to choose nominees for president and vice president.

· US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet with Mongolian Foreign Minister Battsetseg Batmunkh in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia.

· US tariff increases on an array of Chinese imports, including electric vehicles and their batteries, computer chips, and medical products, go into effect.

· Guyana celebrates Emancipation Day, marking the abolition of slavery by the British Empire in 1833.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)/ Business Confidence (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· USA Challenger Job Cuts (July)/ Initial Jobless Claims (July/27)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (July)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (July)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (July)/ Construction Spending (June)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders & Prices (July)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (July/26)/ Fed Balance Sheet (July/31)

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (June)

· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Uruguay Unemployment Rate (June)

· Peru Inflation Rate (July)

· Argentina Tax Revenue (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· China celebrates China Army Day, marking the founding of the People’s Liberation Army in 1927.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nikkei is reporting an estimated 40 million to 50 million Thai citizens will be able to register for that country's long-awaited digital wallet handout. Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin's signature election pledge faced delays for nearly a year as the government sought legal ways to finance the 500-billion-baht ($14 billion) program. A distribution date in the fourth quarter has yet to be set.

· Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (July)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Commodity Prices (July)

· Japan Stock Investment by Foreigners (July/27)/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (July)

· South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Indonesia Inflation Rate (July)/ Tourist Arrivals (June)

· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (July)

· Kazakhstan Current Account Q2/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)

· Hong Kong Retail Sales (June)

· Pakistan Inflation Rate (July)/ Wholesale Prices (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Union will transfer the tranche of interest earned in frozen Russian accounts to Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin has vowed to retaliate.

· Today is the 80th anniversary of the start of the Warsaw Uprising, when the city’s residents tried to oust the German army before it was occupied by the advancing Soviet forces.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee announces its interest rate decision.

· Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill will participate in an online Q&A on the UK economy and bank policies.

· Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (July)/ BoE Interest Rate Decision/ Monetary Policy Report/ MPC Vote Cut/ MPC Vote Hike/ MPC Vote Unchanged/ MPC Meeting Minutes

· Hungary Balance of Trade Final (May)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (July)/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/26)

· Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)/ New Car Sales (July)

· Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

· France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Greece HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Euro Area Unemployment Rate (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nigerian youth activists are planning a nationwide anti-government protest through August 10. Calling it “Ten Days of Rage,” the protests are over ongoing economic hardships.

· Today is Benin Independence Day, celebrating the country’s independence from France in 1960.

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (July)

· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (July)

Friday, August 2, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (July)/ Industrial Production (June)

· Mexico Unemployment Rate (June)/ Gross Fixed Investment (May)

· USA Unemployment Rate (July)/ Participation Rate (July)/ Factory Orders (June)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/02)/ Total Vehicle Sales (July)

· Paraguay Inflation Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Inflation Rate (July)

· Australia Home Loans (June)/ Investment Lending for Homes (June)/ PPI Q2

· Thailand Business Confidence (July)

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/26)

· Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Republic Day in North Macedonia, commemorating the Illinden Uprising and the first assembly of the anti-fascist Assembly for the National Liberation of Macedonia in the midst of World War II in 1944.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Romania PPI (June)

· Switzerland Inflation Rate (July)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (July)

· France Industrial Production (June)

· Spain Unemployment Change (July)/ Tourist Arrivals (June)

· Italy Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

· Slovenia Balance of Trade (June)

· Turkey Auto Production (July)/ Auto Sales (July)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, August 3, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· A six-month cease-fire between Colombia and the rebel group National Liberation Army is set to expire.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, August 4, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Cooks Islands Constitution Day, celebrating their independence from European colonial rule.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report

Francis Kelly 7/28/24 Francis Kelly 7/28/24

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

July 29 - August 2, 2024

The Dog Days of Summer in Washington Haven’t Quite Started Just Yet

Last week we said Washington’s financial regulatory world was entering the dog days of summer. That might have been a bit premature. First, we saw former President Donald Trump address the Bitcoin 2024 Conference in Nashville, Tennessee, where he promised to fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler and create a “strategic national bitcoin stockpile.” Financial regulation has now officially entered the 2024 presidential election debate!

Then, we saw the Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) issued a request for information from the industry on bank’s partnerships with fintech firms. Specifically, the regulators want to hear about how banks are maintaining “effective risk management practices.” They also separately issues a joint-statement reminding banks’ of the potential risks of working with third-party companies that provide bank despot products and services.

The same trio of bank regulators also issued a notice requesting comment on interagency efforts to reduce regulatory burdens, focusing on consumer protection, the role of directors, officers, and employees, and money laundering.

Also this past week, FDIC Vice Chair Travis Hill stepped up and made a public call for scrapping the pending bank capital rules and starting over from scratch and not simply making modifications to the draft. He went on to argue the Basel-mandated rules, as currently drafted, may not be legal. Hill then presented a vision for a number of important bank regulatory issues. If former President Trump is elected, Hill is seen as his choice as FDIC Chair.

The Federal Courts were also active this past week as a federal judge in Texas stayed the long-suffering Department of Labor’s fiduciary rule.

Looking at the week ahead, the FDIC is holding an Open Meeting to consider new rules on industrial loan companies and brokered deposits. And the SEC is holding a Small Business Capital Formation Advisory Committee.

Up on Capitol Hill, the Senate Agriculture Committee is tentatively planning to mark up a crypto regulatory bill while the Senate Banking Committee might vote on the nomination of Christy Goldsmith Romero to be FDIC Chair (much depends on whether recently convicted Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ), a member of the committee, will show up to vote. Following his recent federal bribery conviction, Menendez said he would resign.

But what will likely be the best event this week will be Capitol Account’s event in the Capitol Visitors Center. SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda will participate in a fireside chat, giving great insights into the SEC’s agenda for the rest of the year and what to expect in the wake of the Chevron decision. You can watch it virtually, but you have to register, which you can do by clicking HERE.

Below is a listing of all the other significant regulatory-related events this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

Tuesday, July 30, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Finance Committee holds a hearing entitled “Tax Tools for Local Economic Development.”

Tuesday, July 30, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Tourism, Trade, and Export Promotion Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Enabling Rural Businesses to Grow at Home While Competing Abroad."

Tuesday, July 30, 2:30 p.m. – The Senate Banking Committee’s Economic Policy Subcommittee holds a hearing entitled “Banning Noncompete Agreements: Benefits for Workers, Businesses, and the Economy.”

Wednesday, July 31, TBD – The Senate Agriculture Committee is tentatively planning to hold a markup of Committee Chair Senator Debbie Stabenow’s (D-MI) draft crypto bill.

Wednesday, July 31, TBD – Senate Banking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is floating the idea of voting to advance FDIC Chair-nominee Christy Goldsmith Romero’s nomination. However, with the pending resignation of Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ following his recent criminal conviction, the committee will be one Democratic vote shy, and at this point, it appears there are no committee Republicans known to support the nomination. It is not clear if Menendez will show up or not. Also likely to be included in the vote would be the advancement of the nominations of Caroline Crenshaw to be an SEC Commissioner and current CFTC Commissioner Kristin Johnson to be an Assistant Secretary of the Treasury, and Gordon Ito to be a member of the FSOC.

House of Representatives

The House is out for the month of August. No events are scheduled at this time.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

Tuesday & Wednesday, July 30 – 31 – The Federal Reserve Board’s Federal Open Market Committee meets for two days to discuss the economy and interest rates. Fed Chair Jay Powell will hold a press conference at 2:00 p.m. on July 31.

U.S. Treasury Department

Tuesday, July 30, 9:00 a.m. – The Treasury Department holds a closed meeting of the Debt Management Advisory Committee to discuss topics related to the economy, financial markets, Treasury financing, and debt management, followed by a written report of its recommendations from the committee.

Thursday, August 1, 2:00 p.m. – The Treasury Department’s Advisory Committee on Risk-Sharing Mechanisms meets. The agenda for the meeting includes: Presentations addressing the Federal Insurance Office's partnership with the National Science Foundation to establish a new Industry-University Cooperative Research Center to provide research, analysis, and thought leadership to improve the insurance sector's modeling and underwriting of terrorism and catastrophic cyber risks; Hear a presentation by FIO staff on the 2024 Report on the Effectiveness of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Program and the International Forum of Terrorism Risk (Re)Insurance Pools Conference hosted by FIO in April 2024; and Roundtable discussion by the members to provide industry insight on the effectiveness of TRIP, terrorism insurance market conditions, ideas for private market risk-sharing mechanisms that can offset losses arising from acts of terrorism, and the administration of TRIP.

Department of Commerce

Thursday, August 1, 2:00 p.m. – The Commerce Department Economic Development Administration holds a virtual meeting of the National Advisory Council on Innovation and Entrepreneurship to discuss strategies to unlock sources of capital to leverage federal investments and designations, including current and future tech hubs, aligned with the Commerce Department's existing work in this area.

Securities and Exchange Commission

Tuesday, July 30, 10:00 a.m. – The SEC holds its Small Business Capital Formation Advisory Committee meeting. The Committee will continue its exploration of ways to expand access to early-stage capital raising and support underrepresented emerging fund managers, the Committee will explore recent changes to the SBIC program designed to increase access and diversify funding for small businesses, start-ups, and fund managers. The full agenda can be accessed HERE.

Thursday, August 1, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Wednesday, July 30, 10:00 a.m. – The FDIC Board of Directors will hold an Open Session. You can find the full agenda HERE, which includes proposed rulemakings on brokered deposits, parent companies of Industrial Banks, and several other items.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

Thursday, August 1, 10:00 a.m. – The OCC, along with the FDIC and New York Department of Financial Services, are holding a Bankers Roundtable entitled “Access to Financial Products and Services for the Unbanked and Underbanked” in New York.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

Wednesday, July 31, 10:00 a.m. – The FTC holds a hearing before the FTC’s Administrative Law Judge regarding the proposed merger of Kroger Company and Albertsons Companies.

Thursday, August 1, 10:00 a.m. – The FTC holds an Open Commission meeting to discuss Pharmacy Benefit Managers Report and their impact to access and affordability of medicines and then receive a presentation on Military Consumer Production.

Thursday, August 1, 3:30 p.m. – The FTC and the Department of Justice Antitrust Division will jointly hold a the first public hearing of the Strike Force on Unfair and Illegal Pricing.

Farm Credit Administration

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Think Tanks and Other Events

Tuesday, July 30, 10:00 a.m. – Capitol Account holds an event on investment advisers’ rules sponsored by Charles Schwab. SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda participates in a fireside chat, An industry panel discussion features Jon Beatty, Head of Advisor Services, Charles Schwab; Karen Barr, President, Investment Adviser Association; James J. Burns, CEO/President, JJ Burns & Company and Stephen Johnson, Chief Counsel Wealth & Asset Management Legal Group, Charles Schwab. Location: Capitol Visitor Center, room SVC 215. Pre-registration is required for people without congressional identification. Click here to sign up.

Tuesday, July 30, 12:00 p.m. – The Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 12 p.m., on "Debanking: The Newest Threat to Free Speech and Religious Liberty?"

Wednesday, July 31, 6:00 p.m. – Axios holds a discussion on "Investment for Improvement," focusing on "how corporate investment in the economy can impact and reflect broader market trends, affect long-term inflation and drive financial growth for specific sectors and consumers."

Wednesday, July 31, 12:00 p.m. – The Competitive Enterprise Institute holds a "Lunch Briefing: De-Weaponization of Financial Regulation."

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Fulcrum Perspectives

Bonus Week! You Get Your Five Minutes (or more like 4 ½ minutes) Back Again…

August 19 - 23, 2024

U.S. Congressional Hearings

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

August 16 - 18, 2024

Hacking, Deep Fakes, and the 2024 U.S. Elections

China

Geoeconomics

August 11 - 17, 2024

Sunday, August 11, 2024

Monday, August 12, 2024

Tuesday, August 13, 2024

Wednesday, August 14, 2024

Thursday, August 15, 2024

Friday, August 16, 2024

Saturday, August 17, 2024

Sunday, August 18, 2024

August 12 - 16, 2024

Giving You Back Your Five Minutes…

August 9 - 11, 2024

Geoeconomics

China

Latin America

Russia

European Union

Summer Break Comes to Washington

August 5 - 9 , 2024

August 2 - 4, 2024

July 28 - August 4, 2024

July 29 - August 2, 2024

The Dog Days of Summer in Washington Haven’t Quite Started Just Yet

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