The Global Week Ahead

Summer is Over, and A Hectic Autumn Begins: US Elections Heat Up, China Ramps Up Relations with Africa, Germany’s Historic Elections, And What US Job Figures Will Tell Markets

September 1 - 8, 2024

Summer is now over (per the UK Meteorological calendar, which says September 1 is the first day of Autumn, and we are entering a hectic and likely historic autumn.   The US presidential elections loom a little over two months away (the first presidential debate between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is scheduled for September 10).  

But in the coming week, there will be some very significant events markets will watch closely.  Beijing will be bustling this coming week as China hosts the China-Africa Forum.  Leaders from across Africa will attend the meeting to discuss climate issues, increased trade opportunities, and likely new loans from China to many of the attending countries.  The meeting is all part of Beijing's efforts to expand its influence across the continent while securing critical mineral rights and increased trade opportunities.

But that is not all that is happening in Beijing this week.  UK Foreign Minister David Lammy is expected to visit for meetings with China's top diplomat, Wang Yi, and a possible meeting with President Xi Jinping.  Additionally, Chief US Climate Advisor to President Biden, John Podesta, will visit to discuss cementing new climate goals. At the same time, US Undersecretary of Commerce for International Trade, Marisa Lago, will travel to Tianjin, China for meetings with her counterpart on a wide range of issues stressing the US-China relationship.  Both the Podesta and Lago meetings come on the heal of US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan's meeting with President Xi and Foreign Minister Wang last week. 

The big event in Europe this week is the state elections held today in Germany (Sunday) – the impact of which is shaking most of the rest of Europe and beyond.  The states of Saxony and Thuringia held votes, and it appears the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) Party has won in Thuringia – the first time a far-right party has won a state poll since World War II.  The AfD took second place in Saxony – but just by a little more than a percentage point – to the Christian Democrat Party.  Additionally, the far-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) showed growing strength in both elections, coming in third in both, while the ruling SPD Party came in a very weak fourth place.  

Both the AfD and the BSW strongly oppose military and financial aid to Ukraine, and both have expressed sympathy for Russian President Vladimir Putin's views on the War.  However,  neither party is expected to win enough seats to form a ruling coalition.  And virtually no other party wants to create a coalition with the AfD due to their neo-Nazi leanings.

Also, this week in Europe, former Italian Prime Minister and  European Central Bank Chief Mario Draghi will meet with EU Parliamentary leaders to discuss a forthcoming "landmark" report on EU competitiveness.  Last year, EU President Ursula von der Leyen asked Draghi to conduct the study and recommend how the EU can better compete globally.  The report is expected to make a number of seismic recommendations, primarily aimed at filling the productivity gap between the EU, the US, and China.

Also this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin travels to Mongolia to commemorate the joint Soviet-Mongolian defeat of Japan in World War II.  But the real significance of the trip is that Mongolia is a signatory of the International Criminal Court, which has a warrant out for Putin's arrest since 2023 for war crimes.  This is Putin's first visit to an ICC signatory nation since he directed the invasion of Ukraine.  Mongolia has no intention of honoring that signature or of arresting Putin, a blow to the ICC's stature.

Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen for the coming week, markets are looking at the US jobs report (non-farm payrolls) being released this coming Friday (will they be softer or more robust than expected, and will that, in turn, lead to a larger rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this month?).   Also this week, the Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book, and the Bank of Canada meets to decide interest rates.

Moving to Asia, China releases PMIs and the Caixin indexes, while Japan releases closely watched wage figures, and Australia releases second-quarter GDP figures.

In Europe, markets will closely follow the EU Parliament's reception of the Draghi reported above.   Meanwhile, Germany will release closely watched industrial production and trade balance figures as well as factory orders—all critical indicators of whether the German economy is beginning to recover or is still struggling. 

Below are the other key events around the world we are watching closely:

Sunday, September 1, 2024 

Global

·       Slovenia assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of September.

·       UN General-Secretary Antonio Guterres visits Singapore for meetings.  He will then travel to China to participate in the China-Africa Forum.

·       Today is the first day of Autumn per the UK Met Meteorological calendar.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Chief US Climate Advisor to President Biden, John Podesta, will travel to China for meetings on how to advance further mutual climate agreements.

·       Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador gives an annual speech on the executive branch’s accomplishments, similar to a State of the Nation address.  President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum will be sworn into office on October 1.   Also, Mexican students are expected to turn out in large numbers to protest the President’s proposed judicial reform effort.  The lower chamber of Congress, sworn into office today, begins debate on the measure today.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indonesia hosts the 2nd Annual Indonesia-Africa Forum in Bali.  Indonesian President Joko Widodo and more than 30 African leaders will meet for three days to discuss how to deepen political and economic ties, build stronger supply chains and healthcare systems.

·       Azerbaijan holds parliamentary elections.

·       Today is Uzbekistan Independence Day, celebrating when the country was able to declare its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

·       Today is Constitution Day in Kazakhstan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade AUG

·       Australia CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM AUG

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Germany, state elections will be held in Saxony and Thuringia.  The far-right AfD Party is expected to win a significant share and possibly a majority of the votes.

·       UK Foreign Minister David Lammy will travel to Beijing for meetings to discuss trade and security issues.

·       Czechia will hold regional elections and the election of one-third of the Senate.

·       The GLOBSEC Forum 2024 will be held in Prague, Czechia. 

·       Border Force agents at Heathrow Airport are expected to go on strike through September 3.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 2, 2024

Global

·       Pope Francis begins a four-country Asia visit over twelve days and participates in more than 40 events.  Improving the Catholic-Muslim dialogue and climate change is at his agenda.  He will begin the trip to Indonesia, then travel to Papua New Guinea, East Timor, and Singapore.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris and President Joe Biden hold a campaign event in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

·       Bolivia is bracing for widespread national protests over the current economic crisis and shortage of dollars and fuel.

·       Today is Labor Day in the US and Canada. Financial markets and banks, as well as the US and Canadian governments, are closed.

·       Today is the 79th Anniversary of “VJ Day” when Japanese Foreign Minister Mamoru Shigemitsu and General Yoshijiro Umezu, on board the American warship the U.S.S. Missouri, signed the Potsdam Declaration, a document of surrender that the Allies had drawn up.

Economic Reports/Events

·       Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ Business Confidence (August)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (July)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South African President Cyril Ramaphosa will begin a state visit to China that runs through September 5.  Ramaphosa is also going to attend the Forum on China-Africa (Focac).  China is South Africa’s largest trading partner in Africa with more than $34 billion in exports to South Africa in 2023.  South Africa exported more than $12 billion to China in 2023.

·       South Korea will conduct a drill in Incheon on how to respond to “Disease X,” an unknown pathogen when it is detected and how to respond.

·       The BIMSTEC Summit (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) begins in Bangkok, Thailand and runs through September 4.

·       Today is Independence Day in Vietnam, marking the day the country was independent from France in 1945.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (August)/ Building Permits (July)/ Company Gross Profits Q2/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (August)/ Business Inventories Q2/ Private House Approvals Prel (July)/ Commodity Prices (August)

·       Japan Capital Spending Q2/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (August)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)/ Inflation Rate (August)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Business Confidence (August)

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (August)

·       Kazakhstan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ Wholesale Prices (August)

·       Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• French President Emmanual Macron is expected to meet with former Socialist Party official Bernard Cazeneuve about possibly serving as the next French Prime Minister.  Macron has been struggling to form a new government after recent elections.

• There will be an Informal Meeting of the EU General Affairs Council in Budapest, Hungary, through September 3.  The agenda will address two priorities of the Hungarian Presidency – which are interlinked: boosting the EU’s competitiveness and tackling demographic challenges. A plenary session will examine the possibilities of enhancing competitiveness and the rule of law through better law-making, followed by breakout sessions on the different aspects of competitiveness. Ministers will discuss demographic challenges during their working lunch. 

• The Bled Strategic Forum begins in Bled, Slovenia, and runs through September 3.  EU President Ursula von der Leyen will speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Average Weekly Earnings Q2/ Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ GNP Q2

·       Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Final (June)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (July)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Spain Tourist Arrivals (July)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)/ New Car Sales (August)

·       Turkey GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ PPI (July)/ New Car Registrations (August)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (August)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (August)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (August)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (August)

·       Serbia GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel’s largest labor union, the Histadrut Labor Federation, has called for a one-day strike to protest the government’s failure to secure a cease-fire in Gaza and the failure to get the hostages back.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (July)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (July)/ Private Bank Lending (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Africa Food Systems Summit begins in Kigali, Rwanda and runs through September 6.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (August)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (August)

Tuesday, September 3, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (July)/ Gross Fixed Investment (June)

·       USA Redbook (August/31)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (August)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (August)/ Construction Spending (July)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (August)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (August)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (September)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (August)/ Total Vehicle Sales (August)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (August)

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Mongolia to mark the 85th anniversary of the victory of Soviet and Mongolian forces over Japan in World War II.  This is a significant trip as Mongolia is a signatory to the International Criminal Court (ICC) which has a warrant out for the arrest of Putin for war crimes.  

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Exports/ Imports/ Terms of Trade Q2/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (September/03)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (August)

·       Australia Current Account Q2/ Net Exports Contribution to GDP Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Former Volkswagen CEO Martin Winterkorn goes on trial for his role in the “Dieselgate” scandal.

·       Russia will host the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok through September 6.  Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and several other Asian leaders ae expected to attend.

·       The 32nd International Defense Industry Exhibition begins in Kielce, Poland.  Approximately 800 defense industry representatives will gather to exhibit the latest in military hardware.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank Single Supervisory Mechanism and he European Banking Authority are jointly hosting a conference in Frankfurt looking at supervisory convergence. The conference runs through September 4.  Today, a host of international bank regulators and central bankers are speaking including Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu, Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden, European Central Bank Board Members Kerstin Jochnick, Elizabeth McCaul, IMF Deputy Director for Monetary and Capital Markets Marina Moretti, ohn Berrigan, Director General for Financial Stability, Financial Services and Capital Markets Union, European Commission, Jennifer Burns, Deputy Director, Division of Supervision & Regulation, Federal Reserve Board, Agustín Carstens, General Manager of the Bank of International Settlements.

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (August)

·       Romania PPI (July)

·       Hungary GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       France Budget Balance (July)

·       Slovakia Real Wages Q2

·       Spain Unemployment Change (August)/ Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (August)

·       Qatar Financial Centre PMI (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye will travel to China for a state visit through September 6.

·       The World Congress on Industrial Biotechnology will convene in Harare, Zimbabwe.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (August)

·       South Africa GDP Growth Rate Q2

Wednesday, September 4, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Negotiators from the European Union and the Mercosur trade bloc of South American countries will meet in Brasilia to resume free trade negotiations through September 6. 

·       The US will host the fifth meeting of the U.S.-South Korea Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group in Washington, DC.

·       In Bolivia, the Movement Towards Socialism National Congress will meet.  Former President Evo Morales is expected to lay out his strategy to become the next president.

·       New York Fashion Week for the Spring/Summer 2025 season begins.  Will Derek Zoolander be there?  Or Hansel?  He’s so hot right now.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/30)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ JOLTs Job Openings (July)/ Factory Orders (July)/ Fed Beige Book/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/30)

·       Brazil Industrial Production (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (August)

·       Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and press conference/Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (August)

·       Colombia PPI (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Singapore through September 5.

·       The Forum on China-Africa Cooperation begins in Beijing and runs through September 6.  This is the largest diplomatic event China has held in recent years.  African leaders normally sign a number of large loan agreements with Beijing at this event, but this year may be different as China’s economy struggles and the government is expected to cut back the size of loans.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Australia Ai Group Industry/ Construction/ Manufacturing Index (August)/ Judo Bank Services/ Composite PMI Final (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q2/ GDP Chain Price Index Q2/ GDP Final Consumption Q2/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (August)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Services/ Composite PMI Final (August)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       China Caixin Services/ Composite PMI (August)

·       India HSBC Services/ Composite PMI Final (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August/23)

·       Kazakhstan S&P Global Services PMI (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Former Italian Prime Minister and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will give an initial presentation of his landmark report on EU competitiveness to senior members of the various political groups of the European Parliament.  The report is likely to propose “a radical change” for EU’s economy. More than 400 pages long, the report looks at the energy, defense, and other major sectors and how they can become more globally competitive.  A formal presentation of the report will take place in the latter half of September.

·       UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer takes part in first Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) following the end of the summer recess.  The UK Parliament came back into session on Monday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will give a  keynote speech at the Joint European Banking Authority & European Central Bank international conference "Addressing supervisory challenges through enhanced cooperation" in Frankfurt.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Russia S&P Global Services/ Composite PMI (August)

·       Spain HCOB Services/ Composite PMI (August)

·       Italy HCOB Services/ Composite PMI (August)

·       France HCOB Services/ Composite PMI (August)

·       Germany HCOB Services/ Composite PMI (August)

·       Euro Area HCOB Services/ Composite PMI (August)/ PPI (July)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (July)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Composite PMI Final (August)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (September)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Prel (August)/ Auto Production & Sales (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi will meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara, Turkey. The two leaders are expected to discuss the situation in Gaza and expansion of trade.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (August)

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The World Conference on Soil, Water, Energy and Air will take place in Victoria, Seychelles.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (August)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (August)/ Business Confidence Q3

·       Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (August)

·       Ghana S&P Global PMI (August)

Thursday, September 5, 202 

Global

·       In Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, the Fifth Global Conference on Strengthening Synergies between the Paris Agreement on Climate Change and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development: Building a Just World and a Sustainable Planet will be held through September 6. The Conference is being co-convened by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat, and hosted by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Brazil. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The tax fraud trial of Hunter Biden, President Biden’s son, begins in Los Angeles, California.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (August)/ ADP Employment Change (August)/ Initial Jobless Claims (August/31)/ S&P Global Services/ Composite PMI (August)/ ISM Services PMI (August)/ EIA Natural Gas & Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (August/30)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/04)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/04)

·       Canada Labor Productivity Q2/ S&P Global Services/ Composite PMI (August)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (August)

·       Colombia Exports (July)

·       Brazil Car Production (August)/ New Car Registrations (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Perth, Australia, Japan and Australia hold a 2-plus-2 defense and foreign ministers’ meetings.  Japan's Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa and Defense Minister Minoru Kihara will meet with Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Defense Minister Richard Marles in the first 2-plus-2 meeting since late 2022 in Tokyo. The primary focus of the meetings is China’s growing military expansion in the Indo-Pacific.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Hajime Takata gives a speech to local business leaders in in Ishikawa, Japan/ Japan Average Cash Earnings (July)/ Overtime Pay (July)/ Foreign Bond Investment (August/31)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August/31)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (August)

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock will give a speech at the Anika Foundation in Sydney, Australia/Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (August)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (July)

·       Malaysia Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU ministers responsible for cohesion policy in Budapest, Hungary through September 6.  The agenda, according to the Hungarian government, which is chairing the EU through December, is to hold a high-level debate on the Policy's role in promoting competitiveness and employment, and effectively addressing demographic challenges. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen will participate in a fireside chat at Handelsblatt Banking Summit 2024 "Navigating the Storm: Banking Amid Interest Rate Changes, Real Estate Crises, and Geopolitical Uncertainty” in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Germany Factory Orders (July)/ New Car Registrations (August)

·       Romania Retail Sales (July)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Prel (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       France HCOB Construction PMI (August)/ New Car Registrations (July)

·       Germany HCOB Construction PMI (August)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (August)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (August)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (August)

·       Serbia PPI (August)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/30)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Jordan PPI (July)

·       Israel Business Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Current Account Q2

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, September 6, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will give a speech at the University of Notre Dame’s Department of Economics.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to speak before the C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics organized by the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

·       Chile Inflation Rate (August)

·       Mexico Auto Exports (August)/ Auto Production (August)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (August)/ Employment Change (August)/ Participation Rate (August)/ Ivey PMI s.a (August)

·       USA Unemployment Rate (August)/ Participation Rate (August)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/06)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (August)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is expected to travel to Seoul, South Korea for meetings with President Yook Suk Yeol.   It will be one of Kishada’s last foreign trips before he steps down from office.  Bilateral relations between Japan and South Korea have warmed up considerably since the resolution this past March between the two countries over how to compensate Koreans who were forced to labor for Japanese occupation forces during World War II.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (July)

·       Japan Household Spending (July)/ Coincident Index Prel (July)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (July)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Australia Home Loans (July)/ Investment Lending for Homes (July)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (August/23)/ Deposit Growth (August/23)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/30)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Ukraine Defense Contact Group will meet at Ramstein Airbase in Ramstein, Germany.  Approximately 50 countries will be represented at the meeting chaired by US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.  The focus of the meeting will be to further coordinate aid as well as find ways to accelerate military aid to Ukraine.

·       The 50th European House-Ambrosetti Conference takes place through September 7 in Milan, Italy.  Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban will speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives a keynote speech at the ESCB Legal Conference 2024 (a virtual event).

·       France Non-Farm Payrolls Q2/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Current Account (July)

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Industrial Production (July)

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est Q2

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (August)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (August)

·       Hungary Industrial Production Prel (July)/ Budget Balance (August)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (July)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Italy Retail Sales (July)

·       Euro Area GDP Growth Rate 3rd Est Q2/ Employment Change Final Q2

·       Greece Balance of Trade (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Ireland Construction Output Q2

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ Vehicle Sales (August)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Swaziland Independence Day, marking the day the country was granted independence from the UK in 1968.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Saturday, September 7, 2024

Global

·       The 13th BRICS Trade Union Forum will occur in Sochi, Russia.  The meeting brings together the leaders of the major trade unions of the respective BRIC member nations to better coordinate amongst themselves on worker-related issues.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Undersecretary of Commerce for International Trade Marisa Lago will travel to Tianjin, China, for a meeting with China’s Vice Minister Wang Shouwen.  They are expected to discuss a wide range of topics, including US tariffs on China. The meeting will follow the recent visit of US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan to Beijing.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez will visit Beijing and Shanghai for meetings through September 12.  Sanchez, who has been plagued with corruption charges against him and his wife, is expected to discuss ongoing trade disputes between the EU and China, which have hit Spain in the areas of pork products, dairy, and brandy exports.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Algeria holds presidential elections. Incumbent President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, who is not popular among the electorate, faces two weak challengers and is expected to win in a landslide.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 8, 2024

Global

• The Paralympics’ closing ceremony is held in Paris.

• The World Nomad Games begin in Kazakhstan.  Athletes compete in 21 different types of sports, including Tug-of-War, Horseback Wrestling, Traditional Archery, Horseback Archery, Kok Boru (where horse riders from two teams compete to tear a goat’s carcass from the ground and break through the opposing team’s defenses and put it in the opponents goal), Mas-Wrestling (where two opponents sit opposite each other, resting their feet on a board between their feet, and pull on a stick. The one who pulls the stick or the other guy or both over the board wins), and more.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the deadline for Mexico’s government to present its 2025 budget proposal to Congress.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture and Fisheries Ministers in Budapest, Hungary through September 10. In addition to the informal meeting of the ministers, there will be a number of programs offering an insight into Hungarian culture and gastronomy. On the 8th of September ministers and their delegations will be welcomed with a Danube cruise and an opening dinner in the House of Music Hungary.  The meeting will conclude on the September 10 with a kick-off debate on a farmer-focused post 2027 Common Agricultural Policy Towards a competitive, crisis-proof, sustainable, farmer-friendly and knowledge-based future EU agriculture at the Conference Hall of Várkert Bazaar.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.