The Global Week Ahead: December 18-25, 2022:

NOTE: We apologize for the late publication of this week’s report due to travel and technical issues. We will be back next week on our regular schedule.

The world is quieting down as we enter the holidays. But we are watching closely as Russian President Vladimir Putin travels to Belarus to meet with the Belarusian leader to discuss regional security issues and, reportedly, to attempt to convince him to join the war on Ukraine. Also, in Russia this week, Putin is expected to hold his first formal meeting with the heads of the four regions of Ukraine that Russia claims to have annexed on Sept. 30. 

In Washington, Congress is racing to finalize a multitrillion Omnibus appropriations package before the temporary spending deadline of Friday. And the House of Representatives January 6th Committee will release their final report on Wednesday detailing why they are making criminal referrals against former President Trump to the US Justice Department. 

On the global economic agenda, central banks in Japan and China are expected to raise rates. There are no significant speeches by any major central bankers this week. 

Here is what we are watching in the coming week. Please let us know if you have any questions or if you would like to add someone to our email list:

Sunday, December 18, 2022

Global

·       The World Cup comes to a close in Qatar, with the championship being played today. 

·       The Jewish Festival of Rededication – also known as Hanukkah – begins today and goes through December 25th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Japan, the Saga gubernatorial election is to be held.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Qatar celebrates National Independence Day, a holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP (Q3)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Niger celebrates Republic Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, December 19, 2022:

Global

·       The World Trade Organization begins its General Council meeting in Geneva, Switzerland.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to MONUSCO, as well as a briefing, followed by consultations on the Middle East.  In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on non-proliferation. D

·       The 15th UN Biodiversity Conference (COP15) ends in Montreal, Canada.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Congress is expected to finalize an Omnibus spending package in advance of Friday’s temporary funding deadline.

·       US President Joe Biden meets with Ecuador’s President Guillermo Lasso to discuss bilateral security and economic issues in Washington, DC.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NAHB Housing Market Index (December)

·       Canada Raw Materials Prices (November), PPIs (October & November), Raw Materials Prices (November)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (November)

· Argentina's Balance of Trade (November)

·       Colombia ISIE Economic Activity (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Malaysia’s Parliament meets for the first time since the election of Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim.  They will choose a speaker for the House of Representatives and a vote of confidence for the Prime Minister (which is expected to pass).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan starts 2-day policy meeting.

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Belarus for a meeting with Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko on integration issues with the Union States.  Putin is expected to encourage Lukashenko to join in the war on Ukraine, something Lukashenko has strongly resisted.

·       The leadership of the Joint Expeditionary Forces (JEF), including UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and the Prime Minister of Latvia Krišjānis Karinš, will meet in Riga, Latvia.  The JEF is composed of the UK, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden.  They are expected to discuss the situation in Ukraine and how to ensure security in the Baltic Sea and North Atlantic.

·       The EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council will finalize negotiations and vote on the natural gas price cap mechanism proposed by the European Commission in November.

·       Today is the deadline for Azerbaijan to respond to the European Court of Human Rights inquiry on the blockage of the Lachin Corridor.   The corridor is considered a “lifeline” for residents of Nagorno-Karabahk, and the EU Court has demanded they reopen it.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a speech at Nueva Economía Forum in Madrid, , Spain.

·       Eurozone Construction Output (October), Labor Cost Index (Q3), Wage Growth (Q3)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (December), Ifo Current Conditions (December), Ifo Expectations (December)

·       UK CBI Industrial Trends Orders (December),

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Senegal’s parliamentarians involved in a Dec. 1 National Assembly brawl will appear in court.  The brawl started after two male opposition lawmakers slapped a female member of Parliament during a justice ministry budget vote.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, December 20, 2022:

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the UN’s Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA).  

·       The World Trade Organization will hear two cases brought by the European Union against China regarding EU patent holders and trade restrictions on Lithuania.

·       The G20 Joint Finance and Health Task Force meets virtually.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Building Permits (November), Housing Starts (November), Redbook (December 17th)

·       Canada Retail Sales ex-Autos (October), Retail Sales (October)

·       Mexico Retail Sales (October)

·       Argentina Current Account (Q3)

·       Colombia Monetary Policy Minutes, Balance of Trade (October), Imports (October)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the 23rd anniversary of Portugal’s handover of Macao to China.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China People’s Central Bank monetary policy rate decision on Loan Rate Prime (1Y), Loan Prime Rate (5Y)

·       Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision and press conference with Bank of Japan Governor Harukiko Kuroda.

·       Australia’s Reserve Bank Meeting Minutes

·       Taiwan Export Orders (November)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Environmental Council meets to discuss a proposal that would set specific legally binding targets and obligations for nature restoration in each of the listed ecosystems - from forest and agricultural land to marine, freshwater and urban ecosystems. The measures proposed would cover at least 20 % of the EU’s land and sea areas by 2030, and all ecosystems in need of restoration by 2050.

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to hold his first formal meeting with the heads of the four regions of Ukraine that Russia claims to have annexed on Sept. 30. 

·       The Commonwealth of Independent States' executive committee meeting will take place in Minsk, Belarus. 

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen delivers the opening speech at the high-level industrial roundtable of the Joint Energy Platform via videoconference

·       The EU Environmental Councill will meet to exchange of views on a proposal for a nature restoration law. The presidency will inform ministers about ongoing work on proposals in the Council, including on fluorinated gases, industrial emissions, and waste shipments. The Commission will present recently adopted proposals that are part of the zero-pollution package and the circular economy package.

·       In the UK, as many as 100,000 members of the Royal College of Nursing hold their second one-day strike in a week over pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Eurozone Current Account (October), Consumer Confidence Flash (December)

·       Germany PPI (November)

·       Italy Current Account (October)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (December), Interest Rate Decision

·       Switzerland Leading Business Cycle Indicator (October)

·       Poland Employment Growth (November), Industrial Production (November), PPI (November), Corporate Sector Wages (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Baghdad Conference for Cooperation and Partnership will be held in Baghdad, Iraq.  French President Macron is expected to attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (December), Central Government Debt (November)

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (October & November)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (November)

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (November)

·       Oman Inflation Rate (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (October)

·       Rwanda GDP (Q3)

·       Botswana GDP (Q3) 

Wednesday, December 21, 2022:

Global

·       In the morning, the UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the UN”s Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF), as well as a briefing, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Haiti and Haiti sanctions.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US House of Representatives January 6th Committee releases its final report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Current Account (Q3), CB Consumer Confidence (December), Existing Home Sales (November), MBA Mortgage Market Index (December)

·       Canada Inflation Rate (November), CPIs (November)

·       Brazil Current Account (November), FDI (November)

·       Mexico Private Spending (Q3), Aggregate Demand (Q3)

·       Argentina Unemployment Rate (Q3), Economic Activity (October), Retail Sales (October)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnam’s President Nguyen Xuan Phuc will visit to Indonesia through December 23rd.  They are expected to discuss the situation in East Sea, regional security issues and trade matters.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       India Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (November)

·       Hong Kong Current Account (Q3)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In the UK,  more than 1,600 Unite union members at the West Midlands, North West and North East ambulance service trusts walk out over pay. Also, ambulance staff across most of England and Wales will strike over pay as part of a coordinated walkout by the three main ambulance unions Unison, GMB and Unite

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (January)

·       UK Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex-Banks (November), Public Sector Net Borrowing (November)

·       Italy Construction Output (October)

·       Poland Retail Sales (November)

·       Russia PPI (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana PPI (November), GDP (Q3)

·       Rwanda GDP (Q3)

·       Kenya Balance of Trade (October)

Thursday, December 22, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US GDP (Q3), Chicago Fed National Activity Index (November), GDP Price Index (Q3), Initial Jobless Claims (December 17th), Corporate Profits 4-Week Average (December 17th), PCEs (Q3), Kansas Fed Composite Index (December), Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (December)

·       Canada Average Weekly Earnings (October)

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Mexico Inflation Figures (December)

·       Argentina Leading Indicator (November)

·       Paraguay GDP (Q3)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Coincident Index (October), Leading Economic Index (October)

·       South Korea PPIs (November)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (November)

·       Indonesia Interest Rate Decision, Lending Facility Rate (December), Deposit Facility Rate (December)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to hold a State Council meeting on youth policy.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       UK Current Account (Q3), GDP (Q3), Business Investment (Q3)

·       Hungary Current Account (Q3), Balance of Trade (October)

·       Switzerland Current Account (Q3)

·       Italy Industrial Sales (October), PPI (November)

·       Russia Corporate Profits (October), Industrial Production (November), Consumer Confidence (Q4)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Balance of Trade (October)

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (November)

·       Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision, Overnight Lending Rate (December), Overnight Borrowing Rate (December), FX Reserves (December)

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision, Overnight Lending Rate

·       UAE Loan Growth (October & November), M3 Money Supply

·       Qatar M2 and M3 Money Supply (October & November), Total Credit Growth (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Friday, December 23, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Building Permits (November), Personal Income (November), Personal Spending (November), Durable Goods Orders (November), PCE Price Index (November), New Home Sales (November), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (December), Michigan Consumer Expectations (December), Michigan Current Conditions (December), Michigan Inflation Expectations (December)

·       Canada GDP (October), Budget Balance (October)

·       Brazil IPCA Mid-Month CPI (December)

·       Mexico Economic Activity (October), Balance of Trade (November)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (November)

·       Chile PPI (November)

·       El Salvador Current Account (Q3)

·       Panama Current Account (Q2), IMAE Economic Activity (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan’s cabinet is expected to approve a draft budget for fiscal 2023 of over 100 trillion yen, the largest budget ever in Japan’s history.  Among the big drivers of that figure: Japan’s defense budget is expected to be increased by 43 trillion yen ($318 billion)>

Economic Reports/Events –

·       India FX Reserves (December)

·       Japan Inflation Rate (November), Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Australia Housing Credit (November), Private Sector Credit (November), Private Sector Credit (November)

·       Taiwan M2 Money Supply (November), Retail Sales (November), Industrial Production (November)

·       Singapore CPI (November), Inflation Rate (November), Industrial Production (November)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In the UK, the Royal Mail postal workers start a two-day strike over pay, jobs, and conditions.

·       UK’s  Border Force officers at locations in England, Scotland, and Wales begin eight days of strikes over a 10 percent pay rise, pensions, job security, and no cuts to redundancy terms.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       France PPI (November)

·       Spain GDP (Q3), PPI (November)

·       Italy Business Confidence (December), Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Poland Unemployment (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Tourist Arrivals (November)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, December 24, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       France’s President Emmanuel Macron is expected to visit Beirut, Lebanon to spend Christmas with French peacekeepers in South Lebanon.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 25, 2022:

Global

·       Christmas is celebrated around the world.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Japan’s Miyazaki gubernatorial election to be held.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.