The Global Week Ahead: January 1-8, 2023

Happy New Year!  We wish you a happy, healthy, and peaceful 2023.

This coming week, the new US Congress convenes – the 118th – with Republicans formally taking control of the House of Representatives.  But at the time of this writing, it remains unclear if Representative Keven McCarthy (R-CA) will secure enough votes to be elected the new Speaker of the House. 

Globally, we will see several rotations of the chairs of key global and regional organizations:  Japan takes the Chair of the G7 for 2023 (as well as the chair - for January - of the UN Security Council), Sweden takes the presidency of the European Council for the first six months of 2023, and Indonesia takes the chair of ASEAN for all of 2023. 

On the global economic calendar, December PMIs will be reported this week for all the major economies of Asia, the EU, and North America.   Markets will also look closely at the release of Wednesday of the last Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting minutes, and the US jobs report this Friday to get a sense of the impact of the Fed's rate raises and prospects of a recession.  Market consensus expects the Bureau of Labor Statistics to report a gain of 217,500 non-farm jobs in December.

Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, January 1, 2023:

Global

·       Japan takes the chair of the G7 for 2023.  The next G7 meeting will be held in Hiroshima in May 2023. Japan’s Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) Yasutoshi Nishimura will outline Japan’s priorities at a presentation hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) on January 5th (link to registration to hear Minister Nishimura’s remarks in person or virtually here).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil’s President-elect, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, will be sworn into office.

·       Haiti celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

·       Cuban celebrates Triumph of the Revolution Day, marking the revolution begun by Fidel Castro.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan to begin its two-year term as a non-permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, occupying the rotating chair for the month of January.

·       Japan’s government plans to begin curbing electricity and city gas prices as part of an inflation-relief step for households and companies to start.

·       South Korea will stop using the “Korean Age” system for legal and official documents.  Traditionally, in South Korea, a person is one year old as soon as they are born.  And they gain a year on every New Year’s Day.  For example, a baby born on December 31st would be considered two years old the next day. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Sweden to assume the EU Council presidency for the next six months. Their announced agenda is to forge greater unity over Ukraine, strengthen mutual defense, and work on trade issues.

·       A number of major reinsurers will stop underwriting marine war insurance coverage for ships operating in Russian waters.

·       Croatia will join the Eurozone and the Schengen Area Free Travel zone, the 20th EU member to adopt the Euro as the currency.

·       Today is the 24th anniversary of the launch of the Euro as the new currency of the European Union.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Sudan celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, January 2, 2023:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), Balance of Trade (December), BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Peru Inflation Rate (December)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (November)

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Emperor Naruhito and Empress Masako to extend New Year's greetings to the public gathered at Imperial Palace for first time since 2020 due to COVID.

·       Indonesia takes the chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) for 2023.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       India S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), Inflation Rate (December)

·       Singapore URA Property Index ((Q4)

·       Thailand Business Confidence (December), Retail Sales (October)

·       South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The UK’s National Union of Rail, Maritime, and Transport Workers (RMT) is set to walk off the job in strike over wages on January 3, 4, 6, and 7. 

·       Spain celebrates Reconquest Day, marking the liberation of Spanish and Portuguese territories from the Moors in 1492.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       France S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Spain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), New Car Sales (December)

·       Italy S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Interest Rate Decision

·       Turkey Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December), Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales (December)

Tuesday, January 3, 2023:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US 118th Congress is sworn in.  Republicans in the House of Representatives will elect a new Speaker of the House.  Republicans are bracing for it to become a multiple-ballot event, possibly lasting several days as Representative Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) battles to win the Speakership.   

·       The US Senate convenes for a pro forma session to swear in new members.  Leadership of both parties has already been determined with Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) continuing as Majority Leader and Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) continuing as Minority Leader.

·       The Consumer Technology Association’s (CES) Expo – the world’s biggest consumer electronics and technology event – will be held in Las Vegas, Nevada, this week.   More than 2,800 brands from 160 countries (much less than at its height in 2020 when 4,400 companies attended). 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), Construction Spending (November)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Mexico FX Reserves (November), Business Confidence (December)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, China, to discuss mutual regional security and economic issues.  The visit will go through January 5th.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (December), CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (December), Commodity Prices (December)

·       Singapore GDP (Q4), SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index

·       South Korea FX Reserves (December)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (December), Wholesale Prices (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Employment Figures (December), Inflation Rate (December)

·       UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Switzerland procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Inflation (December), PPI (December), CPI (December)

·       Bahrain Private Sector Credit (November), M2 Money Supply (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola FX reserves (December)

·       Nigeria PMI (December)

Wednesday, January 4, 2023: 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Joe Biden will travel to Kentucky to participate in a bipartisan event with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Ohio Governor Mike DeWine (R), and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear (D) to highlight the bipartisan infrastructure bill passed in 2022.  While there, Biden will announce with McConnell a major project funded by the infrastructure bill, a $1.6 billion bridge between Ohio and Kentucky located in the greater Cincinnati area.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Minutes released.

·       US ISM Manufacturing PMI (December), JOLTS Job Openings (November), ISM Manufacturing Employment (December), ISM Manufacturing New Orders (December), ISM Manufacturing Prices (December), MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December), LMI Logistics Managers Index (December)

·       Brazil PPI (November), S&P Global Composite PMI (December), S&P Global Services PMI (December)

·       Colombia PPI (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       India S&P Global Composite PMI (December), S&P Global Services PMI (December)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Australia Central Bank Chart Pack

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Eurozone S&P Global Composite PMI (December), S&P Global Services PMI (December)

·       Germany Import Prices (November), S&P Global Composite PMI (December), S&P Global Services PMI (December)

·       UK Bank of England Consumer Credit (November), Mortgage Lending (November)

·       France Inflation Rate (December), Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Italy S&P Global Composite PMI (December), S&P Global Services PMI (December)

·       Spain Employment Figures (December), Tourist Arrivals (November), S&P Global Composite PMI (December), S&P Global Services PMI (December)

·       Hungary Gross Wages (October), Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (December), CPI (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Emirates NBD PMI (December), FX Reserves (December)

·       Qatar Finance Centre PMI (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Uganda PMI (December) 

Thursday, January 5, 2023:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US will begin requiring negative PCR tests for arrivals from China, Macau, and Hong Kong.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook participates in a discussion entitled “Inflation - What Lies Ahead” at the 2023 Allied Social Science Associations Annual Meeting in New Orleans, Louisiana.

·       US S&P Global Composite PMI (December), S&P Global Services PMI (December), Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (November), Initial Jobless Claims (December), Challenger Job Cuts (December), ADP Employment Change (December), Total Vehicle Sales (December)

·       Canada Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (November)

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (December), Industrial Production (November)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (December)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (December), Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (December)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan’s new law banning organizations from maliciously soliciting donations, enacted following criticism of fundraising practices of Unification Church, goes into effect. This is tied to the assassination six months ago of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Caixin Services and Composite PMIs (December)

·       Japan Consumer Confidence, Joint New Year press conference to be held by Japan Business Federation, Japan Association of Corporate Executives and Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Tokyo, Japan.

·       Singapore Retail Sales (November)

·       Australia Judo Bank Services PMI & Composite PMIs (December)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (December)

·       Philippine Inflation Rate (December)

·       Thailand CPI (December)

·       Taiwan FX Reserves (December)

·       Sri Lanka Current Account (Q3)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The UK’s ASLEF Union, representing train drivers, is expected to go on strike over wages.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Eurozone S&P Global Construction PMI (December), PPIs (November)

·       Germany Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (November), S&P Global Construction PMI (December), New Car Registrations (December)

·       Italy S&P Global Construction PMI (December), Inflation Rate (December), CPI (December)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (December), FX Reserves (December), Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (December)

·       France S&P Global Construction PMI (December)

·       UK New Car Sales (December), S&P Global/CIPS UK Services & Composite PMIs (December)

·       Hungary PPI (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey’s political opposition leaders will meet to discuss their June 2023 election strategy.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey FX Reserves (December)

·       Israel FX Reserves (December), Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Qatar GDP (Q3)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (December)

·       Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (December)

·       Kenya  PMI (December)

·       Zambia PMI (December)

·       Ghana  PMI (December)

Friday, January 6, 2023:

Global

·       The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Price Index released.

·       The Feast of the Epiphany is celebrated in much of the Christian world, marking the final celebratory day of the Christmas season.  It is commonly associated with the “Three Kings Day” – the day of the Three Wise Men who arrived at the manger of the baby Jesus bearing gifts of gold, frankincense, and myrrh.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (December), Factory Orders (November), Non-Farm Payrolls (December), Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Canada Employment Figures (December), Average Hourly Wage (December)

·       Chile Inflation (December), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December)

·       Mexico Auto Production and Exports (December)

·       Brazil Car Production (December)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI (December), Jibun Bank Composite PMI (December), Average Cash Earnings (November), Overtime Pay (November)

·       India FX Reserves (December)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (December), Wholesale Prices (December)

·       Hong Kong FX Reserves (December)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (November), Industrial Production (November), FX Reserves (December)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Armenia celebrates Christmas on this day, a tradition for more than 1700 years.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Philip Lane participates in a panel discussion entitled “Global Economic Outlook” at the 2023 Allied Social Science Associations Annual Meeting in New Orleans, Louisiana.

·       Eurozone Inflation Rate (December), Retail Sales (November), Economic Sentiment (December), Industrial Sentiment (December), Selling Price Expectations (Decembers0, Services Sentiment (December), Consumer Sentiment (December), Consumer Confidence (December), CPI (December)

·       Germany Factory Orders (November), Retail Sales (November)

·       UK Halifax House Price Index (December), S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (December)

·       France Household Consumption (November), FX Reserves (December), Retail Sales (November)

·       Spain Business Confidence (December)

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (November), Retail Sales (November)

·       Poland Retail Sales (November)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (November), FX Reserves (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iranian protesters are expected to stage strikes through January 8th.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (December)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Rwanda PPI (November) 

Saturday, January 7, 2023: 

Global

·       Today is Orthodox Christmas.

·       Mahayana New Year is celebrated by Buddhists around the world.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China FX Reserves (December)

·       Taiwan Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       South Africa’s ANC reconvenes its national conference to decide policy direction.  Also, the ANC’s national executive committee will be finalized.   The conference was begun in December 2022, but final decisions were put off until now due to various internal policy issues needing to be ironed out.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, January 8, 2023:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China will officially reopen its border to international travelers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg to attend and speak at the People and Defense (“Folk och Fösvar”) National Conference in Sälen, Sweden. The conference and the organization which runs it is dedicated to discussions about Sweden’s security, defense and society’s crisis preparedness (e.g., what to do if invaded by Russia).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Benin to hold legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

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