The Global Week Ahead

Entering the Final Week of the U.S. Election Campaign Season, Gaza Peace Negotiators Try Again to Broker a Cease-Fire, And A Big US Economic Data Week

October 27 - November 3, 2024

The U.S. is going into the final week of campaigning in what is proving to be one of the tensest presidential elections in recent memory and too close to predict at this point.  Polling has proven to be extremely tight and, more often than not, confusing to most observers.  But it seems it all comes down to whoever wins Pennsylvania wins the presidency.  Control of the U.S. House of Representatives is also proving to be close but seems to lean toward Democrats winning control, while control of the Senate looks likely to flip to Republicans.  But one thing is clear: Everyone we have spoken to cannot wait until November 5th to get the voting behind us.

Looking globally, the coming week is relatively quiet following a busy week of the IMF/World Bank meetings and BRICS Summit (which seems to have been something of a bust for host Russian President Vladimir Putin with little achieved).  Markets are somewhat relieved Israel's much anticipated retaliatory attack on Iran Saturday appears to have been limited and likely not to lead to further direct Iranian strikes or significant expansion of fighting in the region.  But Israeli action against Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon continues and is not expected to end anytime soon.  Meanwhile, Israeli, U.S., and Qatari negotiators are gathering in Doha this week in another effort to broker a cease-fire in Gaza.

Looking at the global economic radar screen, it will be a busy week in the U.S. as the Conference Board's consumer confidence report is on Tuesday, the Q3 GDP numbers are out on Wednesday, PCE data is on Thursday, and the jobs report is released Friday.

In Asia, it is also going to be a busy week in Japan.  The Bank of Japan (BoJ) meets on Thursday to decide interest rates.  We will also see the BoJ release its Outlook Report on Thursday.  This comes after the labor market indicator print is released on Monday, and the Industrial Production and Consumer Confidence reports are released on Wednesday. 

China releases its PMIs on Thursday and the Caixin Manufacturing PMI on Friday.   But markets will particularly examine this week's earnings from large Chinese banks to gauge loan losses, giving a better insight into the country's ongoing economic challenges.

Turning to Europe, Germany, France, and the Eurozone will release Q3 GDP figures.  Germany will also release inflation figures on Wednesday, with France and Italy releasing their inflation figures on Thursday.  In the U.K., the much-anticipated first budget of the recently elected Labour Government will be presented on Wednesday.

There are very few major central bank speeches scheduled this week following a busy week in Washington last week at the IMF/World Bank meetings.  The U.S. Federal Reserve Board is in its "black-out period" in advance of the FMOC meeting on November 6 and 7.  Among G7 central banks, the most notable event is Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem's testimony before the Canadian parliament this week.

Below is what else we are closely watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, October 27, 2024

Global

·       European and British Summer Time end. Clocks go back one hour. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Uruguay holds presidential and parliamentary elections. However, the elections are being marred by a controversial $23 billion proposal to overhaul the social security system. If approved, the measure would increase minimum payouts, lower the retirement age and transfer privately managed savings to a government-run trust in what advocates see as a way to share the nation’s resources more equally.

·        Brazil holds its second round of municipal elections. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·         Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan holds snap elections for its the House of Representatives. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party  (LDP) is at risk of losing its majority in the lower house, which would mean the LDP would have to rely on a coalition partnership with the Komeito Party– which is currently does to hold power in the upper house.  The LDP needs to win 233 seats for an outright majority.

·       Uzbekistan holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Lithuania holds the second round of parliamentary elections.

·       Bulgaria will hold snap parliamentary elections. This is the third attempt to form a government since June and the sixth snap elections held in the country since 2021.

·       Liechtenstein holds a vote on a referendum on the privatization of Radio Lichtenstein.

Economic Reports/Events –

·         Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli, Qatari, and US negotiators will meet in Doha seeking a cease-fire in Gaza.

Economic Reports/Events –

·         Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 28, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on Sudan. Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to deliver remarks. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on 2713 Committee (dealing with Somalia as well as a Troop Contributing Countries (TCC) meeting.  

·       The OECD releases Guidelines on Corporate Governance of State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs).

·       The OECD holds its Sustainable Agricultural Productivity Conference in Paris.

·       The UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) experts will present the organization's annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin.

·       The UN’s International Conference on Women, Peace and Security will be held through October 31 in Manila, Philippines.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Canadian province of Saskatchewan holds legislative elections.

·       The 2024 Microelectronics Commons Annual Meeting and National Semiconductor Technology Center Symposium begins in Washington.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (September)/ CFIB Business Barometer (October)

·       Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem will participate in a fireside chat at the Logic Summit in Ontario.

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (September)

·       USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (October)/ Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates

·       Colombia Business Confidence (September)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Philippine Senate will begin an investigation into former President Rodrigo Duterte's controversial war on drugs. The policy began when he was elected in 2016 and by some estimates led to the killing of as many as 30,000 Filipinos. As Nikkei recently reported, an investigation by congressional lawmakers has recently confirmed a bounty system for police that directly linked Duterte's allies, including two sitting senators, to the violent campaign.

·       The Asian Development Bank will elect a new president.  Only one candidate is running – Japan’s former currency czar Masato Kana. 

·       ASEAN Labor Ministers meet in Singapore.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Malaysia PPI (September)

·       Singapore Import & Export Prices (September)/ PPI (September)

·       Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (October)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Finnish President Alexander Stubb begins a state visit to China.  Stubb is expected to discuss the war in Ukraine and China’s role in supporting Russian forces.  They are also going to talk about the ongoing trade disputes with the EU and bilateral trade issues.

·       The EU-Western Balkans Ministerial Forum begins in Montenegro.

·       French President Emmanuel Macron begins a three-day state visit to the former colony, marking a step towards easing three years of strained relations between the two countries.

·       The 2024 Session of the Nordic Council begins in Reykjavik, Iceland and runs through October 31.  The theme of the meeting is “Peace and Security in the Arctic.”  There are 87 elected members of te Council from Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, The Faroe Islands, Norway, Greenland, and Åland Islands.  Belarus opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya will address the group in a bid to encourage continued opposition to the Belarus dictatorship.

·       The environmental group, Extinction Rebellion, is expected to hold large protest targeting London-based issuers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos gives a speech and participates in a Q&A at Foro Reflexión organized by Grupo Hotusa in Madrid, Spain

·       Spain Retail Sales (September)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (September)

·       Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Saudi Arabia hosts the Future Investment Initiative (FII) through October 31.  The event is a showcase explaining the kingdom’s vision for transforming the country into a financial hub as well as the country’s advancements in technology, minerals, and mining.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (September)

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (September)/ Private Bank Lending (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The 10th session of the UN Global Geospatial Information Management for Africa will be held in Addis Ababa.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (September)

Tuesday, October 29, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Middle East. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Current Account (September)/ Foreign Direct Investment (September)

·       Canada BoC Macklem Speech

·       Chile Unemployment Rate (September)

·       USA Goods Trade Balance Adv (September)/ Redbook (October/26)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (August)/ House Price Index (August)/ JOLTs Job Openings & Quits (September)/ CB Consumer Confidence (October)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (October)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/25)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The International Mining and Resources Conference will be held in Sydney, Australia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (September)/ Jobs/applications ratio (September)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Tourist Arrivals (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (September)/ Mortgage Approvals & Lending (September)/ M4 Money Supply (September)/ Net Lending to Individuals (September)

·       Ireland GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Retail Sales (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Africa HealthTech Summit begins in Kigali, Rwanda.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (September)/ Private Sector Credit (September)

Wednesday, October 30, 2024

Global

·       A Joint meeting of G20 Finance Ministers and Health Ministers will take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.  Later, the G20 Health Ministers Conference will meet.

·       G20 Education Ministers will meet in Fortaleza, Brazil.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold votes linked to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) and the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL). Also in the morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold votes related to the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) and Colombia.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canada will host the Ministerial Conference on Human Dimension of Ukraine’s Peace Formula in Montreal.  he Ministerial Conference will bring together Foreign Affairs Ministers to advance the common vision articulated by the Joint Communiqué on a Peace Framework developed at the Summit on Peace in Ukraine at Bürgenstock, Switzerland, in June 2024.  During the conference, Ministers will exchange views with the aim of developing a concrete plan, guided by the principles of international human rights and humanitarian law, for the return of prisoners of war as well as deported civilians and children back to Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (October)/ Bank Lending (September)/ PPI (September)/ Net Payrolls (September)

·       USA MBA Purchase Index (October/25)/ ADP Employment Change (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ GDP Price Index Q3/ GDP Sales Q3/ PCE Prices Q3/ Real Consumer Spending Q3/ Treasury Refunding Announcement/ Pending Home Sales (September)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/25)

·       Chile Copper/ Industrial/ Manufacturing Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Mexico GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Fiscal Balance (September)

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers will testfy before the Canadian Parliament. 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun will meet with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in Washington for the 56th Bilateral Security Consultative Meetings.  

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia CPI Q3/ Monthly CPI Indicator (September)/ Inflation Rate Q3/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q3/ RBA Weighted Median CPI Q3

·       Philippines PPI (September)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (September)

·       Japan Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Singapore Business Confidence Q3

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (September)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (October)/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       India Infrastructure Output (September)/ M3 Money Supply (October/18)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Commission is expected to publish the final disclosure for planned import duties on Chinese made electric vehicles (EV).  Once implemented, the duties will be in place for five years.

·       The UK Autumn Budget will be presented to Parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives the keynote speech at the SAFE-CEPR conference on Euro@25 organized by Leibniz Institute SAFE in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Netherlands Business Confidence (October)

·       France GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Household Consumption (September)

·       Turkey Economic Confidence Index (October)

·       Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Slovakia Business & Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Business Confidence (October)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (October)/ Economic Sentiment Index (October)/ SNB Press Conference

·       Germany Unemployment Rate (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (October)/ Bavaria CPI (October)/ Brandenburg CPI (October)/ Hesse CPI (October)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (October)/ Saxony CPI (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)

·       Italy GDP Growth Rate Q3/ PPI (September)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (October)

·       Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Economic Sentiment (October)/ Consumer Confidence Final (October)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (October)/ Industrial Sentiment (October)/ Selling Price Expectations (October)/ Services Sentiment (October)/ ECB Schnabel Speech

·       Greece PPI (September)

·       Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate (October)

·       Russia Unemployment Rate (September)/ Business Confidence (October)/ Corporate Profits (August)/ Real Wage Growth (August)/ Retail Sales (September)/ GDP (September)

·       Great Britain Autumn Budget 2024

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (August)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (September)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (September)/ Private Bank Lending (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Botswana holds general elections.  President Mokgweetsi Masisi is expected to win a second five-year term.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Budget Balance (September)/ Medium-term budget statement

Thursday, October 31, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Threats to international peace and security. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (September)/ Nominal Budget Balance (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (October)/ Personal Income & Spending (September)/ Employment Cost Index Q3/ Initial Jobless Claims (October/26)/ PCE Price Index (September)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (October/26)/ Chicago PMI (October)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/25)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/30)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/30)

·       Canada GDP (August)/ Average Weekly Earnings (August)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (September)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (September)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India celebrates Diwali, the festival of lights. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Japan Industrial Production (September) / Retail Sales (September)/ Foreign Bond Investment (October/26)

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (October)

·       Australia Housing Credit (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Export Prices Q3/ Import Prices Q3/ Private Sector Credit (September)/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (October)

·       China NBS Manufacturing & Non- Manufacturing PMI (October)/ NBS General PMI (October)

·       Japan Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision/ BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report/ Housing Starts (September)/ Construction Orders (September)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (September)/ Current Account (September)/ Private Consumption & Investment (September)

·       Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       India Government Budget Value (September)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Sri Lanka PPI (September)/ Unemployment Rate Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russia hosts the World Congress of Compatriots Living Abroad.  The meeting brings together approximately 400 leaders and activists from Russian communities from 103 countries.  The agenda includes “…the preservation of traditional and family values, the safeguarding of cultural and historical heritage, protection of the rights and legitimate interests of compatriots, promotion of the Russian language and education, engagement of youth in diaspora activities, development of Russian-language media, and matters concerning relocation to the Russian Federation.”

·       The 2nd International Eurasian Security Conference will be held in Minsk, Belarus through November 1.  Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will chair the conference.

·       The UK Conservative Party elections will end.  The new Party leader will be announced on Saturday, November 2.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden will give a speech in Hong Kong entitled “Engaging with the machine: AI and Financial Stability.”

·       Netherlands Inflation Rate (October)

·       Germany Retail Sales (September)/ Import Prices (September)

·       Romania Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (September)/ Tourism Revenues Q3/ Retail Sales (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/25)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Final (August)/ PPI (September)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (September)

·       France Inflation Rate (October)/ PPI (September)

·       Spain Tourist Arrivals (September)/ Current Account (August)

·       Euro Area ECB Bulletin/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ CPI Flash (October)

·       Italy Unemployment Rate (September)/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Industrial Sales (August)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (October)

·       Greece Retail Sales (August)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Great Britain BoE Breeden Speech

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (September)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision/ Current Account (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

·       South Africa PPI (September)/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (October)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (September)

Friday, November 1, 2024

Global

·       The United Kingdom takes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of November.

·       The G20 Disaster Risk Reduction Ministerial meeting takes place in Belem, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the Day of the Dead in Mexico.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ Business Confidence (October)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (October)

·       Brazil Industrial Production (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (October)

·       USA Unemployment Rate (October)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate/ Participation Rate (October)/ Government Payrolls (October)/ Manufacturing & Nonfarm Payrolls (October)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (October)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Construction Spending (September)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (November/01)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (October)

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (October)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (October)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Building Permits (September)

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (October)/ Building Permits (September)/ Home Loans (September)/ Investment Lending for Homes (September)/ PPI Q3/ Commodity Prices (October)

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Tourist Arrivals (September)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (October)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Business Confidence (October)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (October)/ Bank Loan Growth (October/18)/ Deposit Growth (October/18)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/25)

·       Kazakhstan Current Account Q3/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (September)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (October)/ Wholesale Prices (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       North Korean troops are expected to begin deploying against Ukrainian Forces in Kursk.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Most financial markets are closed as is the European Central Bank for All Saints’ Day, a public holiday.

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Netherlands Retail Sales (September)/ NEVI Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ M2 Money Supply (September)

·       Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (October)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (October)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (October)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Spain New Car Sales (October)

·       Italy New Car Registrations (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (October)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (October)

Saturday, November 2, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       One of our favorite days of the year!  The end of Daylight Savings as clocks are set back one hour and we get an extra hour of sleep.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 2nd round of presidential elections takes place in Moldova.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, November 3, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Standing Committee National People's Congress will gather for meetings through November 8.  They will consider draft laws and amendments to laws dealing with mineral resources, energy, anti-money laundering, and maritime issues.  They are not expected to discuss the ongoing national economic challenges or how to deal with the debt crisis.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

The World Bank/IMF Annual Meetings Convenes in Washington – As Does the Annual BRICS Meeting in Russia, Important Elections Being Held in Eastern Europe, What Happens Next in the Middle East After Sinwar’s Death?

October 20 - 27, 2024

This will be an extremely busy and particularly important week, both geopolitically and for global markets.  The World Bank/International Monetary Fund (IMF) meetings are being held in Washington, D.C. this week.  As finance ministers and central bank chiefs from around the world converge on Washington to discuss global economic issues, managing growing global debt, which, as the IMF reported this past week, is approaching $100 trillion globally – 93 percent of the global GDP – and is on track to surpass 100 percent of global GDP by 2030).  On the sidelines of the meetings, G20 Finance Ministers will also meet in Washington under the chairmanship of Brazil, who is strongly advocating the voice of the “Global South” as a growing economic power.

However, as the World Bank/IMF meetings occur, leaders of the BRICS nations will gather in Russia to meet under the chair of Russian President Vladimir Putin.  The meeting – seen by Moscow as something of a victory over Western sanctions and pressure to end its war on Ukraine – will see the presidents or prime ministers of China, India, Turkey, the UAE, Brazil, Iran, Egypt, and more than 24 other countries discussing issues including how to end the dominance of the US dollar and building an alternative financial system.  Most observers are not expecting any significant breakthroughs.  But it is also likely the BRICS will approve the invitation to up to two dozen new member countries.

Also this week, several important elections are being held in countries Russia is battling to influence and draw into its orbit: Moldova, Bulgaria, and Georgia.  Russian efforts have become so brazen—especially in Moldova—that they are offering bribes to vote against the pro-EU/pro-West governments.

We also continue to watch the evolving situation in the Middle East.  Israel continues to prepare for a retaliatory military strike against Iran (which could come at any time) while continuing its efforts to destroy Hezbollah’s operations in Southern Lebanon.  But the news that Hamas’ political leader, Yahha Sinwar, has been killed by Israeli Forces may prove to be an inflection point in the war in Gaza.  At the time of this writing, there are reports trickling in of larger numbers of Hamas fighters surrendering to Israeli Forces.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, beyond the World Bank/IMF meetings and BRICS meeting, markets are focused on the release of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book on Wednesday and the durable goods orders report on Friday.  Also, the Bank of Canada meets on interest rates on Wednesday.

In Asia, China will announce its 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates on Monday and any new stimulus plans or details of already announced stimulus plans coming from Beijing.   In Japan, the October CPI is out this Friday.

Turning to Europe, the European Central Bank’s consumer expectations survey will be released on Friday, as will Germany’s Ifo survey and France’s, Italy’s, and the U.K.’s consumer confidence reports.

Below is what else we are closely watching happening around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, October 20, 2024

Global

·       The BRICS 1st Climate Congress will be held in Sochi, Russia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Revolution Day in Guatemala, celebrating the overthrow of a dictatorship in 1944.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indonesia’s new president, Prabowa Sunianto, will be sworn into office. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (September)

·       China FDI (YTD) (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Moldova holds presidential elections and a vote on a constitutional referendum on EU integration. There are substantial fears Russia will seek to disrupt the elections in an attempt to block a yes vote on joining the EU – to the point where Russian operatives are openly offering bribes to Moldovans to vote against joining the EU.  Pro-EU President Maya Sandu is likely to receive the most votes in the election, but a runoff is also likely.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iraq holds regional elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 21, 2024

Global

·       UN Secretary-General António Guterres will be in Addis Ababa to take part in the 8th African Union – United Nations annual conference. The high-level discussions will be co-chaired by Moussa Faki Mahamat, the Chairperson of the African Union Commission and the Secretary-General. Later in the day, the Secretary-General will go to the UN Economic Commission for Africa in Addis Ababa, where he will take part in the re-inauguration ceremony of Africa Hall, which is reopening after extensive renovations to transform it into a modern conference center.

·       The UN Convention on Biological Diversity (COP16) to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) in Cali, Colombia through November 1.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on maintenance of international peace and security: Anticipating the impact of scientific developments on international peace and security. In the afternoon, the Security Council will hold a briefing on Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is likely to visit Israel for talks regarding the situation in Gaza and pursue new cease-fire negotiations in the wake of the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid to speak on the economic and monetary policy outlook before hybrid event hosted by the Chartered Financial Analyst Society, Kansas City.

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan to speak and participate in a moderated question-and-answer session before the 2024 SIFMA (Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association) Annual Meeting in New York.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in Chippewa Falls Chamber of Commerce town hall.

·       USA CB Leading Index (September)

·       Colombia Imports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (September)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. and Philippine military forces will participate in the Sama Sama 2024 and Kamandag 8 drills through October 24.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia RBA Hauser Speech

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (September)

·       Malaysia GDP Growth Rate Prel Q3

·       Taiwan Export Orders (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·    Singapore’s International Energy Week begins and runs through October 26. Speakers include industry executives and energy ministers from Tanzania, Cambodia, Laos, Australia and New Zealand, discussing energy security and transition plans.

• The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Luxembourg through October 22.  The ministers will discuss reaching a political agreement on next year’s fishing opportunities in the Baltic Sea.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany PPI (September)

·       Greece Current Account (August)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (September)/ Employment Growth (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ PPI (September)

·       Slovenia PPI (September)

·       Slovakia Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (September)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (September)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (August)

·       Oman Inflation Rate (September)/ M2 Money Supply (August)/ Total Credit (August)

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (September)

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mozambique’s opposition politician Venâncio Mondlane, who early vote counts placed second in the country’s October 9 presidential election, called for a countrywide strike today to protest preliminary results he’s already rejected. He urged supporters to “paralyze” the country, according to a video posted to his social media channels including YouTube on Wednesday. Mondlane has repeatedly said he was winning.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, October 22, 2024

Global

·       The 16th BRICS Summit begins in Kazan, Russia, and runs through October 24.  This is the first time the BRICS has met since expanding the membership to include Iran, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Ethiopia.  In total, leaders from 32 countries are expected to attend.  Among the agenda items will be efforts to move away from the dominance of the US dollar further, create an alternative financial infrastructure, and plan for future expansion.

The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a private meeting with ICJ briefing. In the afternoon, a briefing on the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) is scheduled to be held, followed by consultations.

·       G7 Development Ministers meet in Pescara, Italy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canada's 25% surtax on Chinese steel and aluminum imports will go into effect.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on "Fintech" before the Eighth Annual Fintech Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

·       Mexico Economic Activity (August)

·       Canada PPI (September)/ Raw Materials Prices (September)

·       USA Redbook (October/19)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (October)/ Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (October)/ Money Supply (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/18)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (September)

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Parliament will debate and vote on a €35 billion financial assistance package for Ukraine as part of the G7’s support initiative. The package leverages extraordinary profits from frozen Russian assets and aims to address Ukraine’s urgent financing needs in the face of Russia’s brutal war of aggression.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen will travel to the Western Balkans for meetings with the presidents and prime ministers of Montenegro, Serbia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina regarding further integration with the European Union, including stronger trade ties.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will travel to Estonia for meetings with Estonian President Alar Karis and Prime Minister Kristen Michal. The next day, he will meet with Minister of Foreign Affairs Margus Tsahkna and then visit the Tapa Army Base, where he will address the troops together with the President of Estonia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in a panel discussion about "The future of cross-border payments: faster safer together – safe and inclusive fast payments across borders" during the IMF/WB Annual Meetings in Washington, D.C.  Lagarde will also be interviewed by Bloomberg Television's Francine Lacqua at the IMF.

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will give the keynote address at the Bloomberg Global Regulatory Forum in New York.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives the keynote speech at the annual SCION Day 2024 organized by ETH (Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule) in Zürich, Switzerland.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane will give a speech at the Central Banking Seminar of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in New York. He then will give a speech at Colombia University.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in a panel discussion at the Bloomberg's Global Regulatory Forum in New York.

·       European Union New Car Registrations (September)

·       Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing (September)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (August)

·       Poland Retail Sales (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (September)/ Deposit Interest Rate (October)/ Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (August)

Wednesday, October 23, 2024 

Global

·       G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bankers will meet in Washington, D.C. on the sidelines of the IMF/World Bank meetings.

·       G20 Trade and Investment Ministers will meet in Brasilia, Brazil through October 25.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA) followed by consultations. In the afternoon, there will be a briefing on the Middle East followed by consultations (Syria).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman to give opening remarks on second day of the Eighth Annual Fintech Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to speak on "Recognizing the Impact of Community Colleges" before the 2024 Virginia Education and Workforce Conference.

·       USA MBA Purchase Index (October/18)/ Existing Home Sales (September)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/18)/ Fed Beige Book

·       Mexico Retail Sales (August)

·       Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision/ BoC Monetary Policy Report/ BoC Press Conference to follow.

·       Argentina Economic Activity (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (September)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ New Car Sales (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a speech at an "Atlantic Council Front Page" event in Washington, D.C.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in panel "CBDC, cross border payments and the future of money in a deglobalized world" at 'Bretton woods in a new world' conference organized by Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee in Washington, D.C.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in conversation session at 2024 IIF Annual Membership Meeting "Thriving in turbulence: Sustaining growth in a new economic landscape" in Washington, D.C,

·        Turkey Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (October)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Poland M3 Money Supply (September)

·       Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash (October)

·       Russia Industrial Production (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (September)/ Total Credit Growth (September)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (September)/ Private Bank Lending (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (September)

Thursday, October 24, 2024

Global

·      The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on women and peace and security.

·      G20 Anti-Corruption Ministers will meet in Natal, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Montserrat holds legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack to give welcome remarks before the “Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2024" event hosted by the Center for Inflation Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the European Central Bank.

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (October)/ Federal Tax Revenues (September)

·       Chile PPI (September)

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (October)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (September)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (September)/ Initial Jobless Claims (October/19)/ / S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)/ New Home Sales (September)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/18)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing & Composite Index (October)/ 15 & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/23)/ Building Permits Final (September)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/23)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Adv Q3

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (October/19)/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)

·       Singapore URA Property Index Final Q3

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (September)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (September)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (September)/ M2 Money Supply (September)

·       China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Denmark hosts North Sea Cooperation ministers meeting in   The Cooperative consists of Denmark, Belgium, the Netherlands, France, Germany, Norway, Ireland, Luxembourg and the European Commission. Great Britain participates as an observer.

·       The European Court of Justice will rule on Intel's fight against a once-record €1.06 billion EU antitrust fine for rebates to laptop makers.

·       The EU’s Conference of Presidents (EP President Metsola and political group leaders) will decide on the winner of the 2024 Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought. The three shortlisted candidates are (in alphabetical order): Dr Gubad Ibadoghlu, academic and anti-corruption activist in Azerbaijan; María Corina Machado, as leader of the democratic forces in Venezuela and President-elect Edmundo González Urrutia; and "Women Wage Peace" and "Women of the Sun", Israel/Palestine.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will be a panelist at the G30 39th Annual International Banking Seminar hosted by the Inter-American Bank in Washington, D.C.  Later, Bailey will give the Mike Gill Memorial Lecture at the CFTC in Washington.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul  participates  in panel discussion at the 2024 IIF Annual Membership Meeting in Washington D.C.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives remarks at a conference entitled "Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics" organized by ECB and FED Cleveland Fed in Cleveland, Ohio.

·       France Business Confidence (October)/ Business Climate Indicator (October)/ HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)/ CBI Business Optimism Index Q4/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (October)

·       Turkey MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/18)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Friday, October 25, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Semafor holds its World Economy Summit in Washington through October 25.  Among the speakers will be Amos Hochstein, President Biden’s Special Advisor on Energy Security and other senior Administration officials.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (October)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Budget Balance (August)

·       USA Durable Goods Orders (September)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (October)/ Michigan Current Conditions Final (October)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/25)

·       Paraguay PPI (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Japan Tokyo CPI (October)/ Coincident Index Final (August)/ Leading Economic Index Final (August)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Prel Q3/ Industrial Production (September)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (August)/ Leading Index (August)

·       Hong Kong Business Confidence Q4

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (October 18)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will visit India through October 27. Accompanying Scholz will be a large number of German CEOs seeking new investment opportunities with India.  The German government recently released a white paper entitled “Focus on India” which seeks to lay the groundwork for a stronger partnership with India. Additionally, discussions between Scholz and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will focus on greater defense cooperation.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives a re-recorded speech at a conference entitled "EU Banking Regulation at a Turning Point" organized by Universitá degli Studi di Roma Tor Vergata.

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (October)/ CBI Distributive Trades (October)

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (September)

·       France Consumer Confidence (October)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (September)/ Jobseekers Total (September)

·       Spain Unemployment Rate Q3/ PPI (September)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (October)/ Capacity Utilization (October)

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies & Households (September)/ M3 Money Supply (September)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (October)/ Ifo Current Conditions (October)/ Ifo Expectations (October)

·       Italy Business Confidence (October)/ Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (October)/ Tourist Arrivals (September)

·       Greece Total Credit (September)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (October)

Saturday, October 26, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan General Elections

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Georgia will hold parliamentary elections.  Much like the elections earlier in the week in Moldova, significant Russian efforts to interfere and influence in the elections are expected.  The elections are expected to be decisive in determining if Georgia moves toward possible EU integration or rejects integration for a tighter alliance with Russia. The ruling Georgian Dream Party has accused Western entities of attempting to destabilize the country, while the opposition and Western allies argue that the government is undermining democratic principles. If Georgian Dream wins, it has vowed to ban the main opposition parties, leading to fears of democratic backsliding, while a victory for the opposition could restore Georgia’s pro-Western course.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 27, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Uruguay holds presidential and parliamentary elections. However, the elections are being marred by a controversial $23 billion proposal to overhaul the social security system. If approved, the measure would increase minimum payouts, lower the retirement age and transfer privately managed savings to a government-run trust in what advocates see as a way to share the nation’s resources more equally.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan holds snap elections for its the House of Representatives. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party  (LDP) is at risk of losing its majority in the lower house, which would mean the LDP would have to rely on a coalition partnership with the Komeito Party– which is currently does to hold power in the upper house.  The LDP needs to win 233 seats for an outright majority.

·       Uzbekistan holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Lithuania holds the second round of parliamentary elections.

·       Bulgaria will hold snap parliamentary elections. This is the third attempt to form a government since June and the sixth snap elections held in the country since 2021.

·       Liechtenstein holds a vote on a referendum on the privatization of Radio Lichtenstein.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

The Tense Wait for Israel’s Military Response to Iran’s Attack Continues, the European Council Gathers on Ukraine and Middle East Policy, Biden Goes to Germany, and the ECB Meets on Rates

October 13 - 20, 2024

With less than a month until the US elections, the world tensely awaits Israel's promised military response to Iran's recent missile attack as Israeli military forces continue to intensify their attacks on Hezbollah forces in Southern Lebanon.  It remains unclear if Israel will attack Iranian nuclear facilities or oil production and shipping facilities or, military sites, or critical infrastructure facilities – or some variation of all of these. 

The situation in the Middle East and Ukraine will be the focus of EU leaders this week as the European Council meets in Brussels.  Of note, the leaders will discuss and debate further military aid to Ukraine and allowing Ukraine to use NATO/EU weapons to strike Russian positions and troops inside Russia – something Russian President Vladimir Putin has angrily threatened the West would be seen as a significant escalation crossing one of his "red lines." 

The EU leaders will also discuss the recently released competitiveness reports written by former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi and how best to implement the report's sweeping recommendations.  They will also discuss ongoing trade tensions with China.

Later in the week, President Biden will visit Germany for meetings with German Chancellor Scholz.  Biden was scheduled to visit last week but had to cancel due to Hurricane Milton hitting Florida. 

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, markets are preparing for the IMF/World Bank meetings beginning on October 21st.  Until then, markets are focused on US retail sales and industrial production figures released this week as indicators of where the Federal Reserve will go with rates when it meets in November. 

Moving to Asia, markets remain intensely focused on China following the extraordinary efforts to stabilize the economy.  Beijing releases inflation figures and important trade balance numbers this week.  Elsewhere, Japan releases CPI figures.

In Europe, the European Central Bank meets on interest rates, and markets anticipate a 25-basis point cut.  The UK releases inflation data, and Germany sees the release of the ZEW survey, which will better clarify how the country's economy is doing in the face of a spate of negative data.

Below are the other major political and economic events we are watching this coming week:

Sunday, October 13, 2024

Global

·       The World Health Summit begins in Berlin.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Biden was scheduled to travel to Angola for meetings through October 15 with Angolan President João Lourenço to discuss increased trade and climate collaboration. However, the trip was cancelled due to Hurricane Herman hitting Florida.

·       The XVI Conference of Defense Ministers of the Americas takes through October 16 I Mendoza, Argentina.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China PPI (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ New Yuan Loans (September)/ M2 Money Supply (September)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (September)/ Total Social Financing (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Lithuania holds legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi meets with senior Iraqi leaders in Baghdad.  Araghchi has been traveling throughout the region this past week meeting with leaders in Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE in an effort to gather support and in advance of an expected Israeli attack on Iran.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 14, 2024

Global

·      OPEC releases its monthly report. 

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to meet for consultations on 1559 report (regarding the security situation in Lebanon).

·       The Nobel Prize for Economics winner is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canada celebrates Thanksgiving.  Financial markets are closed.

·       Today is Columbus Day in the US. Stock markets remain open while bond markets and some banks observe the day and are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller speaks on the economic outlook before the "A 50-Year Retrospective on The Shadow Open Market Committee and Its Role in Monetary Policy" conference hosted by Stanford University.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in panel discussion at the Central Bank of Argentina's Money and Banking Conference:" Fiscal Deficits, Monetary Policy and Inflation” in Argentina.  Later, he participates in lecture/fireside chat," The Current State of U.S. Monetary Policy," hosted by the Department of Economics at Torcuato di Tella University in Buenos Aires.

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (August)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (August)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Premier Li Qiang will visit Vietnam through October 14 and sign a railway deal. It is the first official visit to Vietnam by a Chinese premier in 11 years.

·       U.S. and Philippine military forces will participate in the Sama Sama 2024 and Kamandag 8 drills through October 24.

·       Malaysia's parliament will convene and likely pass the Mufti Bill, which would empower religious figures to make edicts without parliamentary oversight.

·       Today is Health and Sports Day in Japan.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (September)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (September)

·       Singapore GDP Growth Rate Adv Q3

·       India WPI Food Index (September)/ WPI Fuel (September)/ WPI Inflation (September)/ WPI Manufacturing (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

·       South Korea Export Prices (September)/ Import Prices (September)

·       China Vehicle Sales (September)/ PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Foreign Minister Foreign Secretary Lammy travels to Beijing and Shanghai, China for meetings.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will visit Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE) and then he will travel to Germany. At SHAPE, Rutte will meet with Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), General Christopher Cavoli, and other senior officers. In the afternoon, NATO Secretary General will travel to Wiesbaden, where he will meet the German Minister of Defence, Boris Pistorius, and visit the site of NATO’s Security Assistance and Training – Ukraine (NSATU) command.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council will meet in Luxembourg. Ministers will discuss the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East.

·       The EU Environment Council will meet in Luxembourg.  The agenda includes approving the conclusions on preparations for the COP29 Meetings, the UN Convention on Biodiversity, and the Global Plastics Treaty.

·       NATO holds “Steadfast Noon” nuclear preparedness drills in the North Sea.

·       The 10th Annual Berlin Process Summit takes place in Berlin, Germany.  The event brings together representatives from Western Balkans and EU countries.

·       The EU-Kazakhstan Cooperation Council meets in Luxembourg.  The meeting will focus on It will then exchange views on political, economic and trade matters and cooperation (including internal reforms, rule of law and human rights, efforts to address sanction circumvention, cooperation facility, critical raw materials and sustainable connectivity). The delegations will also touch on regional and international developments and cooperation, Global Gateway Team Europe Initiatives and security.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The UK International Investment Summit, hosted by the UK Government, takes place in London. The aim of the Summit is to show “the UK is the best place in the world to do business.”  However, the summit comes two weeks before Prime Minister Keir Starmer releases his new budget, which is expected to call for significantly higher taxes on corporations and wealthy individuals.  On Thursday, P&O Ferries – which was prepared to roll-out a $1.4 billion port expansion in the UK as the showpiece of the conference, announced they were pulling out of the deal after Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner and Transport Minister Louise Haigh called the firm “rogue operators” and were boycotting using the firm.

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Swati Dhingra will speak on a panel at the Reserve Bank of India’s 90th Anniversary High-Level Conference in New Delhi, India.

·       Ireland Construction PMI (September)

·       Romania Industrial Production (August)/ Current Account (August)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (September)

·       Great Britain BoE Dhingra Speech

·       Poland Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account (August)

·       Turkey Auto Production (September)/ Auto Sales (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Nigerian Economic Summit will be held in Abuja. Nigeria’s finance minister Wale Edun and central bank governor Yemi Cardoso will be among the speakers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

Tuesday, October 15, 2024

Global

·       The G7 Tech and Digital Ministers meet in Cernobbio, Italy.

·        The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Yemen). In the afternoon, it is scheduled to hold a briefing on Colombia followed by consultations

·       The World Trade Organization (WTO) General Council meets in Geneva, Switzerland

·       The OECD’s Forum on Green Finance and Investment 2024 takes place in Paris, France.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler gives remarks virtually entitled “Career Opportunities and Diversity in Economics” at the Exploring Careers in Economics event hosted by the Federal Reserve.

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly speaks and participates in moderated conversation at event hosted by the New York University Stern School of Business in New York.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to participate in moderated conversation on the economic outlook and impact on small business with the Gathering Spot.

·       Canada Inflation Rate (September)/ CPI Median (September)/ Wholesale Sales Final (August)

·       USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (October)/ Redbook (October/12)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)/ NOPA Crush Report

·       Colombia Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Shanghai Cooperation Organization meets in Islamabad, Pakistan.  The agenda will focus on combating terrorism, enhancing security cooperation among states, and promoting economic collaboration through trade and investment initiatives.

·       Japanese political parties officially kick off campaigning in advance of the October 27 general election. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Japan Capacity Utilization (August)/ Industrial Production Final (August)/ BoJ Adachi Speech

·       India Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Kazakhstan GDP (September)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Services PMI (September)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (October/15)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU General Affairs Council will meet in Luxembourg.  Ministers will discuss EU-Swiss relations, and the fight against antisemitism.

·       The EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council (Energy) will meet in Luxembourg.  They will discuss energy prices, and the state of the energy union and REPowerEU.

·       The Second Accession Conference with Albania will meet in Luxembourg.

·        

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (September)/ ZEW Current Conditions (October)

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (August)/ Employment Change (August)/ Claimant Count Change (September)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (September)

·       Hungary Construction Output (August)/ Industrial Production Final (August)

·       France Inflation Rate Final (September)/ IEA Oil Market Report

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (September)

·       Spain Inflation Rate Final (September)

·       Euro Area ECB Bank Lending Survey/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (October)/ Industrial Production (August)

·       Poland Inflation Rate Final (September)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (August)

·       Serbia Building Permits (August)

·       Turkey Budget Balance (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q2/ Inflation Rate (September)

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (September)/ Wholesale Prices (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Africa Cyber Defense Forum, organized by the African Telecommunications Union, will take place in Kigali, Rwanda.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (August)/ SACCI Business Confidence (September)

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

Wednesday, October 16, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to meet for consultations on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO). In the afternoon, there will be a TCC meeting on United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA).

·       The International Energy Agency (IEA) releases its World Energy Outlook 2024 Report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (October/11)/ Export Prices (September)/ Import Prices (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/11)

·       Canada Housing Starts (September)/ Manufacturing Sales Final (August)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Hong Kong’s Chief Executive John Lee will deliver his 3rd annual policy address.  Lee is expected to focus on the economy after further curbing dissent earlier this year with the imposition of a local national security law known as Article 23.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Seiji Adachi gives a speech to business leaders in Kagawa, Japan.

·       New Zealand Inflation Rate Q3

·       Australia RBA Hunter Speech/ Westpac Leading Index (September)

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Japan Machinery Orders (August)

·       Philippines Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Remittances (August)

·       Thailand Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (October)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate (October)

·       India M3 Money Supply (October/04)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU-Gulf Cooperation Council Summit is held in Brussels. The summit will be co-chaired by the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, and the Emir of Qatar, H.H. Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, as the rotating President of the GCC.  The summit is an opportunity for the EU to develop a closer partnership with the GCC and its member states (the United Arab Emirates, the Kingdom of Bahrain, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the Sultanate of Oman, the State of Qatar, and the State of Kuwait).

·       The 76th Frankfurt Book Fair takes place through October 20 in Frankfurt, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a speech at the official dinner of Banka Slovenije in Ljubljana, Slovenia.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives a speech at Bocconi University in Milan, Italy.

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (September)/ PPI Input & Output (September)/ Retail Price Index (September)

·       Italy Inflation Rate Final (September)

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (August)

·       Euro Area ECB Buch Speech/ ECB President Lagarde Speech/ European Council

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (September)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (September)

·       Russia PPI (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Kenya’s Senate will debate whether to dismiss Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua after the National Assembly voted to impeach him. Gachagua has denied all 11 charges against him, which include enriching himself and stirring ethnic hatred.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Retail Sales (August)

Thursday, October 17, 2024

Global

·       G7 Defense Ministers meet in Napoli, Italy. 

·       The BRICS Business Forum and Business Council meets in Moscow, Russia.  Russian President Vladimir Putin will speak at the Forum.

·       IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva will give a speech on the outlook for the global economy and policy priorities in advance of the IMF/World Bank meetings the following week in Washington, D.C.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee gives welcome remarks before the Fifth Annual Exploring Career Pathways in Economics and Related Fields Conference.

·       Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (August)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (October/12)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (October)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (October/05)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (October)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (October)/ Industrial Production (September)/ Capacity Utilization (September)/ Manufacturing Production (September)/ Business Inventories (August)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (October)/ EIA Natural Gas & Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/11)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/16)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (August)/ Foreign Bond Investment (August)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (August)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/16)

·       Brazil Business Confidence (October)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Tertiary Industry Index (August)

·       Australia Employment Change (September)/ RBA Bulletin/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Participation Rate (September)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (September)/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       India Passenger Vehicles Sales (September)

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Council will meet in Brussels.  EU leaders will discuss Ukraine, the Middle East, competitiveness, migration, and general foreign affairs.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU trade ministers through October 18 in Budapest, Hungary. 

·       France and Ukraine will hold a Nuclear Safety Conference in Paris, France.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank meets to discuss and set interest rates.  A press conference will follow.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives speaks via video message on "Supervisory expectations on public cloud usage by European Central Bank (ECB)" at KPMG Cloud Conference 2024 "Profitable Scaling: The Cloud Journey accelerates" in Frankfurt, Germany.  Later, she participates on a panel discussion at the “Financial and Regulatory Outlook Conference 2024: A New Age of Finance” organized by Oliver Wyman in Rome, Italy.

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (August)/ Inflation Rate Final (September)/ CPI Final (September)/ Core Inflation Rate Final (September)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (September)

·       Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (September)

·       Italy Balance of Trade (August)

·       Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing & Lending Rate (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/11)

·       Great Britain BoE Woods Speech

·       Belarus GDP (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Oman M2 Money Supply (August)/ Total Credit (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ M3 Money Supply (September)

Friday, October 18, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is expected to vote on a draft resolution on Haiti sanctions.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Joe Biden will visit Germany.  He had been scheduled to visit last week but had to cancel due to Hurricane Milton.  The previously scheduled visit was going to be a formal state visit – something no US President has enjoyed in over 40 years.  This visit is now being downgraded to a simple one-day visit.  Additionally, there was going to be a meeting of NATO leaders chaired by Biden at Ramstein Air Base to discuss the situation in Ukraine.  That meeting will not be rescheduled for this visit.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives remarks entitled “Decentralized Finance” at the Nineteenth Annual Vienna Macroeconomics Workshop in Vienna, Austria.

·       USA Building Permits Prel (September)/ Housing Starts (September)/ Housing Starts (September)/Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/18)

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (August)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (September)/ Leading Indicator (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The APEC Finance Ministerial Meeting is held in Lima, Peru.

·       ASEAN’s AIPA General Assembly meets in Vientiane.

·       Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will present the annual budget.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (September)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (October/04)/ Deposit Growth (October/04)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/11)

·       Sri Lanka Unemployment Rate Q2

·       Japan Inflation Rate (September)/ Foreign Bond Investment (October/12)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (October/12)

·       China House Price Index (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q3/ NBS Press Conference

·       Malaysia GDP Growth Rate Prel Q3/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Retail Sales (September)/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (September)

·       Euro Area Current Account (August)/ Construction Output (August)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (August)/ Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Italy Construction Output (August)/ Current Account (August)

·       Serbia Current Account (August)

·       Slovakia Current Account (August)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (July) / Balance of Trade (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The IMF’s executive board will meet for the first review of Ethiopia’s $3.4 billion financing program.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (September)/ Building Permits (August)

·       Ghana PPI (September)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (September)

Saturday, October 19, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz meets with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul, Turkey. The two leaders will discuss Ukraine and the Middle East.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 20, 2024

Global

·       The BRICS 1st Climate Congress will be held in Sochi, Russia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indonesia’s new president, Prabowa Sunianto, will be sworn into office. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (September)

·       China FDI (YTD) (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Moldova holds presidential elections and a vote on a constitutional referendum on EU integration. There are substantial fears Russia will seek to disrupt the elections in an attempt to block a yes vote on joining the EU.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iraq holds regional elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

The Sad Anniversary of Hamas’ Murderous Assault on Israel,  Biden Travels to Germany and Angola, US Supreme Court Begins its Autumn Term, and Germany’s Foreign Minister to Travel to China

October 6 - 13, 2024

Monday is the one-year anniversary of Hamas' surprise attack on Israel, killing more than 1,200 people and taking hundreds more hostage, changing the security situation in the greater Middle East and leading to war in Gaza and now in Lebanon against Hezbollah.  Markets are now bracing for an Israeli retaliatory strike on Iran after Iran attacked Israel with another rocket attack this past week.  The biggest question is whether Israel will attack Iran's nuclear facilities.  Will be sending updates as the situation progresses this week.

Also this week, President Joe Biden will travel to Germany for a US president's first official state visit in almost four decades.  While in Germany, Biden will chair a meeting of NATO state leaders to discuss the situation in Ukraine and likely address the issue of whether Ukraine will be allowed to use NATO-supplied weapons to proactively attack Russian targets inside Russia – something which Moscow has said would be a dramatic provocation.  Russian President Vladimir Putin has – again – suggested the use of nuclear weapons.  Still, most experts we have spoken to do not believe he will use them and instead ramp up asymmetric attacks on Western targets, impacting market operations (e.g., cyberattacks, cutting critical communication cables, etc.).

Biden will travel from Germany to Angola.  He is following up on a promise he made to African leaders in 2022 that he would visit Africa and seek to shore up relations with the continent.

Elsewhere in the world, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is expected to travel to China this week to discuss the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East.  She is also expected to discuss the EU's ongoing deliberations to effectively block Chinese Electric Vehicles (EVs) from being imported to China – a hot-button issue between China and the EU.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, Markets are looking at the US September CPI figures released this week after the surprise uptick in employment numbers last week.  Additionally, the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee meeting minutes and the Michigan consumer survey for October are out this week.

In Europe, the European Central Bank's meeting minutes are also being released this week.  The UK releases GDP numbers, while Germany releases factory orders, industrial production, and trade figures—all closely watched to see if Germany is beginning to pull out of its economic doldrums.  France will present its 2025 budget this week, which will be important as the fragile political coalition could be impacted. 

This week in Asia, China returns from its week-long Golden Week holiday, and the country's stock exchanges reopen.  It also releases CPOI and PPI figures. Japan releases its Monthly Labor Survey, Economy Watchers Survey, and PPI figures—all important figures to watch as Japan prepares for snap parliamentary elections on October 27. 

Below is what else we are tracking around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, October 6, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil holds local elections, including for Mayor of Sao Paulo.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Kazakhstan, a referendum on the construction of a nuclear power plant (NPP) will be held. Opinion polling indicates that the most likely scenario will be a vote in favor of constructing the plant. If approved, it will help Kazakhstan's domestic electricity supply challenges and reduce its dependence on both fossil fuels and electricity imports from abroad.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Industrial Production (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (September)/ Foreign Direct Investment (September)

·       Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       London is bracing for a large protest in support of Palestinians.

·       Bosnia and Herzegovina will hold local elections.

·       In Italy, Matteo Salvini's League holds an annual meeting in Pontida.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Tunisia will hold a presidential election.  President Kais Saied will almost certainly win as opposition parties are boycotting the election.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Monday, October 7, 2024 

Global

·       Today is the one-year anniversary of Hamas’ assault on Israel, murdering more than 1,200 people and the taking of hundreds of civilian hostages, many of whom have been subsequently murdered.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Supreme Court begins its fall session. They will hear cases dealing with online pornography, transgender rights, and nuclear waste storage.

·       A Colombian Court will hear evidence against ex-president Alvaro Uribe on bribery and fraud charges.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman will speak at the Independent Bankers Association of Texas (IBAT) Annual Convention in San Antonio, Texas.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Bank Holding Company Association (BHCA) Fall Seminar.

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy and participates in moderated conversation before the Money Marketeers of New York University Inc.

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Colombia Exports (August)/ Inflation Rate (September)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (September)

·       USA Consumer Credit Change (August)/ Used Car Prices (September)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·    Leaders of the ASEAN bloc meet for a three-day summit in the Laotian capital, Vientiane, to discuss economic and security issues. Japan's newly appointed prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, also joins the meeting to talk about East Asia's role in the Southeast Asian club of 10 nations.  More than 1,000 CEOs and senior executives along with world leaders will attend.

. Pakistan is bracing for nationwide protests to mark the one-year anniversary of the start of the Israel-Hamas conflict. The anti-Israel demonstrations are being held by the Muslim-majority nation's major Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami.

·       South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol visits Southeast Asia, stopping in the Philippines and Singapore. In the city-state, he is slated to attend a business forum highlighting economic cooperation and is also expected to speak on issues including Korean unification at a separate lecture.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (September)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (September)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Japan Coincident Index Prel (August)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (August)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Philippines Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is expected to visit China for meetings.  She is expected to discuss the ongoing EU deliberations on EV tariffs and the situation in Ukraine and the Mideast.

·       The Eurogroup meets in Luxembourg.  They are scheduled to discuss a recovery plan for Europe, the situation in Ukraine, EU energy policy, and the upcoming G20 finance ministers and central bank governors, climate finance, tax policy, and pending legislative proposals dealing with digital finance and capital markets union.

·       The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Council of Foreign Ministers will meet in Moscow. 

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a speech at the Deutsche Bundesbank's symposium, "Future of payments: trends and innovations in Germany and Europe," in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane will give a keynote at the ECB Conference on Monetary Policy: bridging science and practice in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Germany Factory Orders (August)

·       Romania Retail Sales (August)

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (September)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (September)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Prel (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       France Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (August)

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Euro Area Retail Sales (August)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ Vehicle Sales (September)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (September)

·       Jordan GDP Growth Rate Q2/ PPI (August)

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The African Oil Week conference will kick off in Cape Town, South Africa.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Tuesday, October 8, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Great Lakes region, followed by consultations.

·       The United Nations Human Rights Council will meet to discuss Honduras and Haiti.

·       The IMF releases its World Economic Outlook.

·       The United Nations International Conference on Victims of Terrorism co-organized by the United Nations Office of Counter-Terrorism (UNOCT) and the Kingdom of Spain will take place on 8 and 9 October 2024 at Palacio de Congresos Europa in Vitoria-Gasteiz, Spain.

·       The 7th Vienna Energy Security Dialogue takes place in Vienna, Austria.

·       BRICS Senior Health officials will meet in Moscow through October 9 in advance of the BRICS Health Ministers this week.

·       The 11th Meeting of Heads of BRICS Intellectual Property Agencies meets in Moscow through October 9.

·       The BRICS Think Tank Network for Finance Conference will be held in Moscow (in person and via video).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Latin American and Caribbean Competition Forum begins in Santa Domingo, The Dominican Republic.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson will give a speech on “The Discount Window: 1913-2000” at Davidson, College, Davidson, North Carolina.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler will give a speech on Global Inflation at the European Central Bank Conference on Monetary Policy 2024, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic gives remarks and participates in moderated conversation on the economic outlook before the Atlanta consular corps luncheon.

·       Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins speaks before the 23rd annual Regional & Community Bankers Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (September)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Redbook (October/05) / RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (October)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/04)

·       Chile Inflation Rate (September)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Brazil Car Production (September)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (August)

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Regional election results are scheduled in India's northern Jammu and Kashmir region. They were the first polls in the former state -- now a federally-governed territory -- in about a decade and came five years after Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government scrapped its special autonomy status.

·       China’s stock exchange reopens after a weeklong holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (August)

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (August)/ Household Spending (August)/ Overtime Pay (August)/ Current Account (August)

·       Australia NAB Business Confidence (September)/ RBA Meeting Minutes/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (September)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (August)/ Industrial Production (August)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU’s Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  Theya re expected to discuss a recovery plan for Europe, the situation in Ukraine, EU energy policy, and the upcoming G20 finance ministers and central bank governors, climate finance, tax policy, and pending legislative proposals dealing with digital finance and capital markets union.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will meet with Finland’s President, Alexander Stubb, in Brussels.

·       The European Parliament will debate the state of Georgia’s declining democracy, Russian attempts to interfere in Moldova’s presidential elections and the situation in Sudan with EU foreign policy chief Borrell. Resolutions on Georgia and Moldova will be put to a vote on Wednesday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will chair the keynote session at the ECB Conference on Monetary Policy: bridging science and practice in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul will give the keynote speech and participate in a fireside chat at the S&P Global Ratings European Financial Institutions Conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (September)

·       Germany Industrial Production (August)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account (August)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (August)

·       Hungary Budget Balance (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kenya Interest Rate Decision

·       Mozambique Presidential Election

Wednesday, October 9, 2024 

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) followed by consultations. 

·       G7 Health Ministers meet through October 11 in Ancona, Italy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook will give remarks on “Entrepreneurship and Innovation” at the Women for Women Summit presented by the College of Charleston School of Business, Charleston, South Carolina.

·       The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank’s Payments Symposium will be held Chicago. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Richmond Fed President, and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Meister are scheduled to speak.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic gives welcome remarks before the Greater Atlanta Home Builders Association monthly meeting.

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan speaks on the current state of the economy before the Future of Global Energy Conference presented by Shell USA, Inc. and co-hosted by the Greater Houston Partnership.

·       Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins speaks before the Worcester Regional Research Bureau 39th Annual Meeting.

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in moderated conversation on monetary policy and the economic outlook at Boise State University.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (October/04) /Wholesale Inventories (August)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/04) / / FOMC Minutes released

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (September)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (September)

·       Peru Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Leaders of the ASEAN bloc meet for a three-day summit in the Laotian capital, Vientiane, to discuss economic and security issues. Japan's newly appointed prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, also joins the meeting to talk about East Asia's role in the Southeast Asian club of 10 nations.

·       Japan will formally dissolve its lower house ahead of snap elections to be held on Oct. 27, when newly elected Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) look to strengthen their numbers in parliament. Ishiba was elected LDP leader -- and became the country's newest prime minister -- as Fumio Kishida opted not to vie for another term in Japan's top job.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (October)

·       New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (August)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (September)

·       India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio

·       Kazakhstan PPI (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU employment, social policy, and health ministers in Budapest, Hungary through October 10.

• UK onservative MPs start voting to determine the final two candidates vying to become the party’s next leader, after Rishi Sunak announced his resignation in the wake of the party’s heavy general election defeat. The outcome is announced tomorrow. Party members will then vote on these two options

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will participate in a session entitled "The true cost of greening the world" at IUCN Leaders Forum 2024 "Harnessing innovation, enabling conversation" in Geneva, Switzerland.

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (August)

·       Ireland Industrial Production (August)

·       Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       France New Car Registrations (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Interest Rate Decision/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mozambique holds presidential and parliamentary elections. Daniel Chapo is the presidential candidate for the governing Liberation Front of Mozambique (Frelimo) and is highly likely to be elected president.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (September)

Thursday, October 10, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to have a private meeting on Somalia, and in the afternoon a TCC meeting on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO).

·       The G7 holds a Ministerial meeting on Industry and Technological Innovation in Rome, Italy.

·       The 4th Meeting of BRICS Deputy Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors takes place through October 11 in Moscow.

·       The 14th Meeting of BRICS Health Ministers will take place through October 11 in Moscow.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Biden will travel to Germany for the first state visit of a US president in four decades.  He will meet with Chancellor Olaf Scholz and President Frank-Walter Steinmeier.  Additionally, Biden will lead a summit on the Ukraine War at the US airbase in Ramstein.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin participates in fireside chat,"2025 Economic Outlook and Beyond" before the Virginia Maritime Association 2024 International Trade Symposium.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives remarks and participates in a moderated discussion on the economic outlook and monetary policy before event organized by Binghamton University.

·       USA Inflation Rate (September)/ CPI (September)/ Initial Jobless Claims (October/05) / EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/04)/ 15 & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/09)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October)/9

·       Mexico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (September)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

·       Brazil Retail Sales (August)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwan celebrates its National Day, with new President Lai Ching-te due to mark the occasion with a speech. With tensions with China at very tense levels, comments being made in Taipei will be closely watched.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Bank Lending (September)/ Foreign Bond Investment (October/05)/ PPI (September)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (October/05)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (September)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (October)/ Private House Approvals MoM Final (August)/ Building Permits MoM Final (August)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Malaysia Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (September)/ Car Sales (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU Justice and Home Affairs Council ministers will meet in Luxembourg through October 11.  They will discuss fighting child sexual abuse, Schengen, EU law enforcement IT systems, asylum and migration, and internal security.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Ms. Maia Sandu, President of Moldova, regarding joining the EU.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (September)

·       Romania Balance of Trade (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (September)

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (August)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Participation Rate (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/04)

·       Italy Industrial Production (August)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (August)

·       Greece Inflation Rate (September)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (September)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

·       Euro Area ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (September)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (August)/ Mining Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (September)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (September)

Friday, October 11, 2024

Global

·       The Nobel Peace Prize winner is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank’s Community Bankers Symposium will be held in Chicago.  Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will speak along with Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman will give remarks on community banking at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Community Bankers Symposium (Virtual).

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee gives opening remarks before the 18th Annual Community Bankers Symposium, “Community Banking: Navigating a Change Landscape" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan participates in panel before the Federal Home Loan Bank of Dallas Women in Financial Services Conference.

·       Mexico Industrial Production (August)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (September)/ Participation Rate (September)/ BoC Business Outlook Survey

·       USA PPI (September)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (October)/ Michigan Current Conditions Prel (October)/ WASDE Report/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/11)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Macao will hold a leadership election with just one candidate, former top court president Sam Hou-fai. Only the roughly 400 pro-Beijing members of an election committee are allowed to vote. Sam recently described the development of the casino industry, which powers Macao's economy, as "disorderly" and "barbaric.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (September)/ Food Inflation (September)/ Visitor Arrivals (August)

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (October)/ Machine Tool Orders (September)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (July)

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/04)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)

·       China Vehicle Sales (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Inflation Rate Final (September)/ Current Account (August)

·       Romania Inflation Rate (September)

·       Great Britain Goods Trade Balance (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Construction Output (August)/ GDP (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (September)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (August)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Turkey Current Account (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (September)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account Q3/ Inflation Rate (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Oman M2 Money Supply (August)/ Total Credit (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (August)/ SACCI Business Confidence (September)

·       Angola Inflation Rate (September)

Saturday, October 12, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Spain: National Day, aka Dia de la Hispanidad, commemorating the day in 1492 when Christopher Columbus caught sight of the New World. Includes annual military parade in Madrid.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 13, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Biden travels to Angola for meetings through October 15 with Angolan President João Lourenço to discuss increased trade and climate collaboration.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China PPI (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ New Yuan Loans (September)/ M2 Money Supply (September)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (September)/ Total Social Financing (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Lithuania holds legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Hezbollah’s Leader Nasrallah is Dead, Leaving Markets and World Leaders Asking: What Happens Now?  The US Vice Presidential Candidates Debate As U.S. Dockworkers Prepare To Go On Strike, And Mexico Inaugurates A New President

September 29 - October 5, 2024

With the confirmation of the death of Hezbollah's Hassan Nasrallah, markets and world leaders are asking the question: What happens next?  The risk of war between Israel and Hezbollah and possibly Iran has reached dangerous new levels.  Nasrallah's death is a massive blow to Iran's power and prestige in the Middle East, and it is unclear if or how Iran could retaliate.  The only clear thing is Israel is determined to cripple Hezbollah's military threat to Israel permanently, as we saw over the weekend as Israeli airstrikes continued to pound Hezbollah positions. 

 Meanwhile, in the United States this coming week, Vice Presidential candidates Senator J.D. Vance (R-OH) and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz will debate on Tuesday.  This will happen as the International Longshoreman's Association is expected to go on strike on both coasts, shutting down 36 major ports just as imports ramp up to meet Christmas shopping demand.  The union and port owners have been stalemated over a new contract for over a year.

Elsewhere in the Americas, Mexico will hold the historic inauguration of Claudia Sheinbaum as the country's new—and first female—president.  Succeeding President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), she is expected to continue pursuing his controversial populist agenda, which includes the recent much-criticized reform of the national judiciary and possibly a ramp-up of nationalization of foreign-owned assets in the country.

In Asia, Japan's parliament will formally vote to approve a new Prime Minister—former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba—to succeed Fumio Kishida.  The significance of this transition is that Ishiba is a strong military defense hawk who advocates a significant ramp-up of Japan's military and military as well as the creation of an “Asian NATO” – which would mean stationing Japanese troops in other countries, including the US.  He has also advocated legislation that would allow women to become reigning empresses, something opposed by many of his fellow Liberal Democratic Party lawmakers.

 On the global economic radar screen this coming week, markets will be looking closely at the US jobs report, ISM indicators, and JOLTS reports for signs of where unemployment is going.   Additionally, Fed Chair Jay Powell will give an important speech on the economic outlook.

In Europe, German and Italian CPI figures will be a significant focus of the markets.  Markets are also listening for European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's remarks before a European Parliament Committee hearing this week.

In Asia, the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) summary of opinions will be released, as well as the BoJ's Tankan Survey and labor market figures.  China celebrates the 75th Anniversary of the establishment of the People's Republic of China and the beginning of the Golden Week holidays, which run through October 7. It also releases on Monday much-watched manufacturing PMIs.

Here is what else we are tracking in the week ahead:

Sunday, September 29, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Austria holds Parliamentary elections. 183 seats of the National Council and lower house of parliament are up.  The far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) is currently polling at 26%, and the center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP), led by incumbent Chancellor Karl Nehammer, with 25%. The Social Democratic Party (SPÖ) is close behind with 21% (which means no single party will likely secure a majority, forcing a coalition government).

·       Ukraine observes the 83rd anniversary of Babyn Yar, the two-day slaughter of more than 30,000 Jews in Kyiv by the Nazis.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (August)/ Private Bank Lending (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 30, 2024

Global

·       The UN General Assembly concludes today. A list of the final national leaders speaking can be found at UN Journal.         

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to Haiti [mandate of the Multinational Security Support Mission (MSSM)]. Soon after, the Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo sanctions. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the maintenance of international peace and security.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       El Salvadorian President Bukele will be meeting with Argentine President Javier Milei in Buenos Aires.  The two conservative leaders are expected to discuss AI investment and other tech issues.

·       The US Congress is out of session until November.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to speak before the National Association for Business Economics 66th Annual Meeting, "Finding Harmony in the Noise: Transitioning to a New Normal" in Nashville, Tennessee.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” at the Georgia Bankers Association President/CEO Conference, Charleston, South Carolina.

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (August)/ Nominal Budget Balance (August)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Chile Copper Production (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       USA Chicago PMI (September)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (September)/ Quarterly Grain Stocks - Corn & Soy & Wheat (September)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (August)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (August)

·       El Salvador Current Account Q2

·       Paraguay Current Account Q2

·       Uruguay Current Account Q2/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Mexico Fiscal Balance (August)

·       Costa Rica Unemployment Rate Q2

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Philippine Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro will give a major speech on South China Sea dispute in Manila, Philippines.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Japan Industrial Production Prel (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Housing Starts (August)/ Construction Orders (August)

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (September)

·       Australia Housing Credit (August)/ Private Sector Credit (August)

·       China NBS Non-Manufacturing/ Manufacturing/ General PMI (September)/ Caixin Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI (September)/ Current Account Final Q2

·       Singapore Import/ Export Prices (August)/ PPI (August)

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (August)

·       Thailand Current Account (August)/ Private Consumption & Investment (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (September)/ PPI (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       India Government Budget Value (August)/ Infrastructure Output (August)/ Current Account Q2/ External Debt Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The trial of Marine Le Pen, 26 others and the RN on suspicion of embezzlement of European public funds in Paris. 

·       The Vaclav Havel Human Rights Prize announced in Strasbourg, France. The finalists are Venezuelan democracy leader María Corina Machada, Azerbaijanian human rights leader Akif Gurbanov, and Georgian human rights leader Babutsa Pataraia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give an introductory statement at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Germany Import Prices (August)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (September)/ Bavaria CPI (September)/ Brandenburg CPI (September)/ Hesse CPI (September)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (September)/ Saxony CPI (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

·       Great Britain Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ Business Investment Final Q2/ BoE Consumer Credit (August)/ Mortgage Lending & Approvals (August)/ M4 Money Supply (August)/ Net Lending to Individuals (August)

·       Hungary PPI (August)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (September)

·       Poland Inflation Rate Prel (September)

·       Spain Current Account (July)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (September)

·       Greece PPI (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Italy Inflation Rate (September)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (August)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (July)/ Current Account (August)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Unemployment Rate Q2

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (August)/ M2 Money Supply (August)/ Private Bank Lending (August)

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The International Court of Justice holds public hearings on a land and maritime dispute between Gabon and Equatorial Guinea.

·       Today is Independence Day in Botswana, celebrating when the country gained its independence from the UK in 1964..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (August)/ Private Sector Credit (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Budget Balance (August)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (September)

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (August)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (September)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (August)

Tuesday, October 1, 2024

Global

·       Switzerland assumes the Chair of the UN Security Council for the month of October.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Claudia Sheinbaum will be sworn in as Mexico’s new President and first woman president.

·       US Vice Presidential candidates J.D. Vance and Tim Walz will take part in an election debate.

·       The International Longshoreman’s Association is expected to begin a strike in more than a dozen major ports along the East and West Coast. 

·       Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will likely face a second non-confidence vote in two weeks.

·       Widespread protests are expected by pensioners I Caracas, Venezuela.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to give welcome and opening remarks before the" Technology-Enabled Disruption: Implications of AI, Big Data, and Remote Work" conference organized by the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Boston and Richmond in Atlanta, Georgia.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech entitled “AI, Big Data, and the Path Ahead for Productivity” at the Conference on “Technology-Enabled Disruption: Implications of AI, Big Data, and Remote Work," Atlanta, Georgia.

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (August)

·       USA Redbook (September28)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (September)/ JOLTs Job Openings (August)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (September)/ Construction Spending (August)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (September)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (September)/ JOLTs Job Quits (August)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (September)/ Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/27)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (September)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (September)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is China’s National Day celebrating the end of dynastic rule and the 75th anniversary of People’s Republic of China.  It is a public holiday and the beginning of its Golden Week which runs through October 7.

·       The ASEAN-Japan Cybersecurity Policy Meeting will begin in Singapore.

·       Japan will formally elect former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba as Prime Minister.

·       The Indian region of Jammu and Kashmir will begin its third phase of voting for assembly elections, and the Indian state of Haryana will hold its assembly elections as well.

·       Today is Independence Day in Tuvalu. The island nation celebrates when it gained its independence from the UK in 1978.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence & Utilization Q3/ Building Permits (August)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (October/01)

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (September)/ Building Permits (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Private House Approvals Prel (August)/ Commodity Prices (September)/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (September)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (August)/ Jobs/applications ratio (August)/ BoJ Summary of Opinions/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (September)

·       South Korea Exports/ Imports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ PPI (August)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (September)

·       Kazakhstan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (September)/ Wholesale Prices (September)/ Balance of Trade (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·        Former Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte takes over from Jens Stoltenberg as NATO secretary general.

·       Ukraine will mark its Defenders Day national holiday.

·       Newly installed French Prime Minister Michel Barnier delivers his first general policy statement to Parliament, including the 2025 budget.

·       Wikileaks founder Julian Assange will address the Council of Europe.

·       Today is Cyprus Independence Day, marking when the nation became independent from the UK in 1960.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives the welcoming speech at the 5th Joint BoC - ECB - NY FED Conference on Expectations Surveys, Central Banks and the Economy in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will chair the keynote lecture at 5th Joint Bank of Canada - ECB – New York FED Conference on Expectations Surveys, Central Banks and the Economy in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Final (July)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (August)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Inflation Rate Flash (September)/ CPI Flash (September)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing

·       Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)/ New Car Sales (September)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Asia Cooperation Dialogue's heads of state meeting will take place in Doha, Qatar, through October 1.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (September)

Wednesday, October 2, 2024

Global

·       G7 Interior Ministers meet in Mirabella Eclano, Italy, through October 4.

·       The Jewish High Holy Days will begin at sundown with the start of Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish new year.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem will give welcome remarks before the Community Banking Research Conference 2024:"Where Research and Policy Meet," co-sponsored by the Federal Reserve System, the Conference of State Bank Supervisors (CSBS) and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation in St. Louis, Missouri.  Later, Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman will give a keynote speech at the conference.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to speak on the national economic outlook before the 2024 WilmingtonBiz Conference and Expo in Wilmington, Delaware.

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (September)/ Industrial Production (August)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/27)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/27)/ ADP Employment Change (September)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (September/27)/ EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (September/27)

·       Mexico Business Confidence (September)/ Gross Fixed Investment (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Colombia Exports (August)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will visit Pakistan through October 4.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Ai Group Industry/ Construction/ Manufacturing Index (September)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index & Outlook Q3/ Tankan Large All Industry Capex Q3/ Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Singapore URA Property Index QoQ Prel Q3/ SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (September)

·       Sri Lanka Current Account Q2

·       India M3 Money Supply (September/20)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen meetings with the President of Georgia, Ms. Salome Zourabichivili in Brussels.  The EU and Georgia have experienced significant disruptions in relations. The EU has threatened to strip Georgians of visa-free access due to backsliding on democracy in the country, and it has frozen chances of Georgia joining the EU.   Later in the day, von der Leyen will meet with British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer in an effort to “reset ties” between the UK and EU.   

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will host meetings with French President Emanual Macron in Berlin.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board member Luis de Guindos will give a speech at the Latvijas Banka's and SUERF Economic Conference, "Financing a Better Future: The Vital Role of Finance in Achieving Sustainable Growth" in Riga, Latvia.  He will then participate on a panel entitled “From Riga to Brussels to Wall Street: Examining the Differences of Financial Architecture.” 

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane will chair a policy panel at the 5th Joint Bank of Canada - ECB - Federal Reserve Bank of New York Conference on Expectations Surveys, Central Banks and the Economy in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will participate on a panel discussion "Banking for Prosperity: Towards Stronger and More Inclusive Growth Through Increased Integration and Competition" at Latvijas Banka's and SUERF Economic Conference "Financing a Better Future: The Vital Role of Finance in Achieving Sustainable Growth" in Riga, Latvia. 

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will participate in webinar organized by the Institute of International & European Affairs in Dublin, Ireland.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will give the Walter Eucken Lecture 2024 at the University of Freiburg in Freiburg, Germany.

·       Romania PPI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (September)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Euro Area Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Italy Unemployment Rate (August)/ New Car Registrations (September)

·       Ireland Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (October)

·       Russia Business Confidence (September)/ Real Wage Growth (July)/ Retail Sales (August)/ GDP (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Guinea, marking when the country gained its freedom from France in 1958.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (September)

·       South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales (September)

Thursday, October 3, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in hybrid "Featuring Frontier Research to Enhance Economic Opportunity and Inclusive Growth" 2024 Research Conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.  Later, Atlanta Federal Reserve Board President Raphael Bostic will participate via video.

·       Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (September/28)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (September)/ ISM Services PMI/ Business/ Employment/ New Orders/ Prices (September)/ Factory Orders (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September/27)/15 & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/02)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/2)/ Total Vehicle Sales (September)

·       Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (September)

·       Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (September)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (September)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Asahi Noguchi gives a speech to a meeting of local business leaders in Nagasaki, Japan.

·       Australia Judo Bank Composite & Services PMI Final (September)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (September/28)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/28)/ Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMI Final (September)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Kazakhstan S&P Global Services PMI (September)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Germany celebrates the Day of German Unity, celebrating the reunification of Germany.  It is a public holiday, and financial markets and banks are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (September)

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (September)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (September)

·       France Budget Balance (August)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (September)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (September)/ PPI (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/27)/ Auto Production (September)/ Auto Sales (September)

·       Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (September)

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (September)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (September)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (September)/ PPI (August)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Iraq Independence Day, marking when the country gained its independence from the UK in 1932.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (September)

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (September)

·       Qatar Financial Centre PMI (September)/ Balance of Trade (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (September)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (September)

·       Ghana S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Tanzania Interest Rate Decision

Friday, October 4, 2024

Global

·       G7 Ministers meet in gender equity and women’s empowerment in Matera, Italy, through October 6.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to give opening remarks before the conference, "The Future of New York City: Focus on Jobs," at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (August)/ Auto Exports (September)/ Auto Production (September)

·       USA Unemployment Rate (September)/ Participation Rate (September)/ Average Weekly Hours (September)/ Manufacturing & Government Payrolls (September)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (October/04)

·       Canada Ivey PMI s.a (September)

·       Brazil Balance of Trade (September)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (September)

·       El Salvador GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Colombia PPI (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Kazakhstan will host the regional ceremony of unveiling the Global Innovation Index 2024 Report. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (September)

·       Australia Home Loans (August)/ Investment Lending for Homes (August)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (September)/ Bank Loan Growth (September/20)/ Deposit Growth (September/20)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/27)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (August)

·       Thailand Business Confidence (September)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Sri Lanka Unemployment Rate Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will give the speech at the 10th Anniversary International Financial Markets Conference organized by Lithuanian Central Bank in Vilnius, Lithuania.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos will give remarks at the anniversary of Radio Intereconomía.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will give the keynote speech followed by panel participation at the  Change in Leadership event by Sustainable Finance Lab in Utrecht, Netherlands.

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill will give a speech at the Institute of Chartered Accounts in England and Wales Annual Conference.

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (August)

·       France Industrial Production (August)/ HCOB Construction PMI (September)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (August)

·       Spain Industrial Production (August)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (September)

·       Germany HCOB Construction PMI (September)/ New Car Registrations (September)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (September)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (September)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (September)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (August)

·       Serbia PPI (September)

·       Romania Interest Rate Decision

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Prel (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Lesotho celebrates Independence Day, marking when the UK granted the nation its independence in 1966.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kenya GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Saturday, October 5, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vanuatu celebrates Constitution Day, celebrating when the nation’s constitution was signed in 1979, paving the way for its independence.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Portugal celebrates Republic Day, celebrating when Portugal’s monarchy was overthrown in 1910.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 6, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil holds local elections, including for Mayor of Sao Paulo.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Kazakhstan, a referendum on the construction of a nuclear power plant (NPP) will be held. Opinion polling indicates that the most likely scenario will be a vote in favor of constructing the plant. If approved, it will help Kazakhstan domestic electricity supply challenges and reduce its dependence on both fossil fuels and electricity imports from abroad.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Industrial Production (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (September)/ Foreign Direct Investment (September)

·       Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       London is bracing for a large protest in support of Palestinians.

·       Bosnia and Herzegovina will hold local elections.

·       In Italy, Matteo Salvini's League holds annual meeting in Pontida.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Tunisia will hold a presidential election.  President Kais Saied will almost certainly win as opposition parties are boycotting the election.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

World Leaders Gather at UN General Assembly Week in New York, Japan Selects a New Prime Minister, Bracing for Israeli-Hezbollah Escalation, and Waiting For A Flood of Fed Governor Speeches

September 22 - 29, 2024

This coming week is going to be an exceptionally busy one on the geopolitical front.  The United Nations 79th General Assembly is this week, and leaders from around the world are gathering to give speeches before the Assembly and hold side meetings with other leaders.  Of note, we will be watching closely Iran's new President Masoud Pezeshkian's speech for not only what he says about the current escalation of fighting between Israel's and Iran's proxy militia, Hezbollah.  But also, press reports suggest Pezeshkian may suggest an avenue to restarting stalled talks on limiting Iran's nuclear program. 

As we write this update, there has been a significant escalation of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah following Israel’s stunning exploding pager operation last week, killing or wounding more than 3,000 Hezbollah operatives.  The question now is does this move into a full-out war (which seems most likely) or is there some remote chance of a diplomatic solution.

Also of note this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will speak to the Assembly and then travel to Washington to meet with President Biden, Vice President Harris, and House and Senate leadership about additional military assistance.

As all this is happening, Japan's Liberal Democracy Party will vote on a new leader—who will then become the new Prime Minister of Japan—as incumbent LDP President and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is not running for re-election and is standing down in the wake of low approval polls and a controversy over a slush fund scandal.

Turning to US politics, The House and Senate are expected to vote this week on a Continuing Resolution (CR) to keep the federal government running through December 20th.   The bill will likely face widespread House Republican opposition but still pass with just enough Republicans voting in favor, along with almost the entire House Democratic Caucus.  As this is going on, the House Foreign Affairs Committee is going to hold a hearing with Secretary of State Antony Blinken to review the chaotic withdrawal of US Forces from Afghanistan.  The Committee issued a scathing report recently, strongly criticizing how the withdrawal was conducted.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, we are struck by the large number of speeches Federal Reserve Board Governors are giving: ten, of which seven are being given on Thursday.  That is a lot for markets to digest, along with a busy US economic report calendar that includes US PCE readings, flash US CPI numbers, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index, and durable goods orders.

Turning to Europe, the European Central Bank, France, Germany, and Italy release their consumer expectation surveys.  In Asia, Japan releases the Tokyo CPI report and flash PMIs.  The Reserve Bank of Australia meets to decide interest rates.

Here is what else we are tracking in this hectic week ahead:

Sunday, September 22, 2024

Global

·       The opening segment of the Summit of the Future will take place at the General Assembly Hall. The UN Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks, as well as the President of the 79th Session of the General Assembly, Philemon Yang. The Summit of the Future will continue until September 23.  

·       The UN’s the COP29 Presidency and the International Organization for Migration (IOM) are co-organizing a High-Level Roundtable on Climate, Peace and Human Mobility.

·       Today is the Fall Equinox.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will address the Indian diaspora at the "Modi & US Progress Together" event at Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum in Long Island, New York. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Thailand New Car Sales (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Germany, the state of Brandenburg holds state elections.

·       Switzerland holds a referendum vote on initiative to strengthen biodiversity protection.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today in South Sudan is the deadline for the dissolution of the transitional unity government ahead of possible December elections.

·       Today is Mali Independence Day, celebrating when the country gained its independence from France in 1960.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 23, 2024

Global

·      The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) holds board meetings in Vienna, Austria. They are expected to be given an update on Iran’s nuclear weapons program, North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, and the situation around security and safeguards around Ukraine’s nuclear power facility, which has been the center of heavy fighting.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Joe Biden hosts UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan for talks on Gaza and Sudan.  This is the first state visit by a sitting UAE President.  He will also meet with Vice President Kamala Harris during his visit along with a large group of US businessmen.

·       The Argentine Congress is expected to begin debating the 2025 fiscal budget.  President Javier Milei has pledged to substantially reduce the federal deficit via austerity measures in the package.

·       The Clinton Foundation holds its annual Clinton Global Initiative in New York.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to speak virtually on the economic outlook before the Distinguished Speakers Seminar convened by the European Economics and Financial Centre at the University of London.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in moderated question-and-answer session before the Greater Kansas City Chamber of Commerce Leadership Exchange 2024.

·       Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Mexico Economic Activity (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (August)/ S&P Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (September)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (August)

·       Paraguay PPI (August)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan's main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, will hold a leadership election.  Whomever wins is the likely next Prime Minister.

·       South Korea will host the 25th Korea-U.S. Integrated Defense Dialogue in Seoul.

·       Filipino unionized transport workers will stage a nationwide work stoppage through September 24.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japanese financial markets are closed to celebrate the Autum Equinox Day.

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (September)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (August)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (August)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (September)

·       Philippines Business & Consumer Confidence Q3

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·        Italy will host the second Libya Energy and Economy Summit in Rome. 

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers are going to discuss the upcoming EU-UK annual consultation on fishing opportunities for 2025 as well as the EU-Norway and coastal states annual consultations for the coming year.

·       The EU General Affairs Council will meet in Brussels.  Ministers will hear the Hungarian presidency will present the priorities for its term of office. Ministers will have an opportunity to present their comments.  They will also hold a horizontal discussion on the rule of law situation in the EU member states. Separately, ministers will also exchange views on the general trend of the rule of law situation in selected candidate countries. Both discussions will make use of the Commission’s 2024 rule of law report, which this year covers, for the first time, also developments in Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia. 

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen delivers a keynote address at the Association of Small Islands States Leaders Meeting in New York.

·       Armenia's Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan will travel to the Netherlands and Brussels, Belgium, on a working visit. 

·       Paris Fashion Week begins. Maybe Derek Zoolander will be there, too.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone will give an introductory statement at a hearing on the digital euro before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.  Later, he will participate on a panel discussion at a roundtable on the digital euro at the House of the Euro in Brussels.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives opening remarks at the summit on Real estate climate data industry good practices organized by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Hungary Gross Wage (July)

·       Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (September)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (September)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (September)

·       Poland Retail Sales (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August)

·       Great Britain S&P Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (September)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (September)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (August)

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Saudi Arabia celebrates National Day.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (July)/ Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (August)/ M2 Money Supply (August)/ Private Bank Lending (August)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (August)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (July)

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (August)/ Total Credit Growth (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

·       Oman M2 Money Supply (July)/ Total Credit (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (August)

Tuesday, September 24, 2024

Global

·       The UN’s General Assembly’s General Debate of the 79th session officially begins.  The theme for the 79th session is “"Leaving no one behind: acting together for the advancement of peace, sustainable development and human dignity for present and future generations.” The Secretary-General will address this session of the General Debate. The Speakers list will be available in the UN Journal. 

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The House Foreign Affairs Committee holds a hearing on "An Assessment of the State Department's Withdrawal from Afghanistan by America's Top Diplomat."  US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will testify.  The Committee recently issued a scathing report on how the withdrawal was conducted and President Biden’s role.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech at the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy at the Kentucky Bankers Association Annual Convention.

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will participate in a fireside chat at the Institute for International Finance Canada Forum 2024 in Toronto.

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ FGV Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Chile PPI (August)

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (September)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales MoM Prel (August)

·       USA Redbook (September/21)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (July)/ House Price Index (July)/ CB Consumer Confidence (September)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (September)/ Money Supply (August)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/20)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       ASEAN Defense Senior Officials meet in Vientian.

·       ASEAN Energy Ministers meet in Vientian.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda gives a speech to business leaders in Osaka, Japan. 

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (September)/ BOJ Gov Ueda Speech

·       South Korea PPI (August)

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (July)/ Leading Index (July)

·       Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Interest Rate Decision/ RBA Press Conference

·       Taiwan Export Orders (August)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen co-hosts an event on carbon-pricing, together with Justin Trudeau, Prime Minister of Canada in New York.  She will also deliver opening remarks at the Global Renewables Summit in New York.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives the opening speech at the European Confederation of Institutes of International Accounting (ECIIA) Banking Forum 2024 "AI and IA: Responding to the Digital Journey in Banking".

·       Bankca d’Italia/G7  jointly hold a workshop entitled “Building a quantum safe financial system: what role for authorities and for the private sector?” in Rome.

·       Turkey Business Confidence (September)/ Capacity Utilization (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate/ Current Conditions/ Expectations (September)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (September)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (September)/ Inflation Report/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Riyadh, Saudi Arabia will host the Smart Cities Saudi Conference.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Guinea-Bissau celebrates its 51st Independence Day, marking when Portugal gave the country it’s freedom.

·       South African markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, September 25, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Maintenance of International Peace and Security: Leadership for Peace. The Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks. 

·       At the UN, the 2nd Foreign Ministers meeting of G20 Brazil 2024 on the theme "Building a just world and a sustainable planet" will take place at the ECOSOC Chamber. The Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks.

·       The UN holds a high-level meeting on rising sea levels.

·       The OECD presents its Interim Economic Outlook.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US House of Representative’s Speaker of the House Michael Johnson (R-LA) is expected to present a stop-gap spending bill that will continue US government funding through December 20.  A deal was reached over the weekend with the Senate over the weekend.  A large number of House Republicans are expected to vote against it – which will complicate Speaker Johnson’s future as Speaker.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech on the Economic Outlook at the Harvard Kennedy School, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

·       USA MBA Purchase Index (September/20)/ New Home Sales (August)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (September/20)/ Building Permits Final (August)

·       Brazil Current Account (August)/ Foreign Direct Investment (August)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (September)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnam's President and ruling Communist Party chief To Lam will visit Cuba through September 26 and meet with Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel. 

·       The Indian region of Jammu and Kashmir will begin its second phase of voting for assembly elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (August)/ RBA Chart Pack

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (August)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Parliament is expected to vote on raising tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank’s Governing Council holds a non-monetary policy meeting (virtual).

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in roundtable at European Banking Chief Compliance Officer Network (EBCCON) Plenary Meeting 2024 (virtual).

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Megan Greene gives a speech at the Chambers of Commerce in Newcastle on Consumption.

·       Hungary Current Account Q2

·       France Consumer Confidence (September)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (August)/ Jobseekers Total (August)

·       Spain PPI (August)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (September)

·       Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/ ECB McCaul Speech

·       Russia Corporate Profits (July)/ Industrial Production (August)

·       Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Abu Dhabi will host Global Aerospace Summit.  The focus of the meeting will be on investment and global trade in the industry.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (July)

Thursday, September 26, 2024 

Global

·       G7 Agriculture Ministers will meet in Syracuse, Italy through September 28.

·       The World Bank/IFS/ODI Finance Conference begins in Washington, D.C.

·       BRICS Foreign Ministers meet in New York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.

·       BRICS Energy Ministers meet in Moscow.

·       The BRICS Digital Forum is held in Innopolis, Republic of Tatarstan.

·       The BRICS Science, Technology and Innovation Ministerial meeting will be held in Moscow.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will meet with U.S. President Joe Biden and separately with Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris at the White House in Washington, D.C.

·       El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele will make an official visit to Argentina. The meetings come after the two nations signed a security agreement in June.

·       Ecuador will host the Women Economic Forum in Quito through September 28.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler participates in a Fireside chat on Financial Inclusion with President Susan M. Collins, co-hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston and Minneapolis and the Federal Reserve Board (virtual)

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman participates in a discussion on the “Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” at the Mid-size Bank Coalition of America Board of Directors Workshop.

·       The Federal Reserve Bank of New York holds its 2024 U.S. Treasury Market Conference.  Scheduled speakers include: Brian Smith, deputy assistant Treasury secretary for federal finance, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen, and SEC Chair Gary Gensler.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook participates in a roundtable discussion entitled “Artificial Intelligence and Workforce Development” at the Roundtable Discussion with Community Stakeholders, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and Columbus State Community College, Columbus, Ohio.

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr participates in a fireside chat on financial inclusion with Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari, co-hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston and Minneapolis and the Federal Reserve Board (virtual).

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech on Artificial Intelligence and the Labor Force at the Ohio State University President and Provost’s Diversity Lecture and Cultural Arts Series, Columbus, Ohio.

·       Brazil PPI (August)/ Net Payrolls (August)

·       Canada Average Weekly Earnings (July)/ Wholesale Sales Prel (August)

·       USA GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/21)/ PCE Prices Final Q2/ Pending Home Sales (August)/ Fed Barr Speech/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September/20)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing & Composite Index (September)/ 15 & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/25)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/25)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (August)

·       Mexico Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Collective Security Treaty Organization exercises called "Indestructible Brotherhood - 2024" will commence in Kazakhstan.

·       The editors of Hong Kong media outlet Stand News face sentencing after being convicted of sedition last month under a colonial-era law. The maximum penalty in the case would be two years in prison.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Foreign Bond Investment (September/21)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/21)

·       Australia RBA Financial Stability Review

·       Malaysia PPI (August)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (August)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Pope Francis commences a four-day visit to Luxembourg and Belgium.

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal Market and Industry) will meet in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss the future of European competitiveness and how to tackle the challenges facing industry and businesses in the single market. The policy debate follows discussions on the issue at the European Council meeting of 17-18 April 2024, and the Competitiveness Council on 24 May, along with the presentation of former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s report on 9 September.

·       European Parliament members and political groups will present their nominations for the 2024 Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought, the highest tribute paid by the EU in the field of human rights, at a joint meeting of the Foreign Affairs Committee, Human Rights Subcommittee, and Development Committee. The vote on the three finalists will take place in October.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank’s General Council holds a meeting (virtual).

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give the welcoming address at the 8th annual ESRB conference "New Frontiers in Macroprudential Policy" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives the opening remarks at the stakeholder meeting about the ECB Guide on Governance & Risk Culture in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul will chair a panel discussion at stakeholder meeting about the ECB Guide on Governance & Risk Culture in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will give the keynote speech at the 8th annual ESRB conference "New Frontiers in Macroprudential Policy" in Frankfurt, Germany. European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will give remarks at the Wirtschaftsrat der CDU e.V. in Stuttgart, Germany.

§  Shoib Khan, director of insurance supervision at the Bank of England’s Prudential Regulation Authority, speaks at the 29th Bank of America Financials CEO conference

§  The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority holds its annual public meeting.

·       Great Britain Car Production (August)

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence OCT

·       Euro Area ECB General Council Meeting/ ECB Economic Bulletin/ Loans to Companies & Households (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August)

·       Span Retail Sales (August)

·       Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision

·       Italy Business & Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Greece Total Credit (August)

·       Turkey MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/20)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (August)

Friday, September 27, 2024

Global

·       G7 Energy Ministers will meet in Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil.

·       The Group of 77 (G77) Foreign Ministers will meet in New York.

·       The BRICS Communications Ministers meeting will take place in Innopolis, Republic of Tatarstan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Higher U.S. tariffs on imported Chinese electric vehicles will go into effect.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman participates in a conversation at the Alabama Bankers Association Bank CEO Meeting, Birmingham, Alabama.

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (September)/ Bank Lending (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (September)/ GDP (July)/ Budget Balance (July)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (August)

·       USA Core PCE Price Index (August)/ Personal Income & Spending (August)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (August)/ PCE Price Index (August)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (September)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/27)

·       Costa Rica GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Current Account Q2

·       Paraguay GDP Growth Rate Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Argentina Current Account Q2

·       Panama Current Account Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Turkmenistan Independence Day, celebrating when the country gained its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (September)

·       South Korea Business Confidence (September)

·       Japan Tokyo CPI (September)/ Coincident Index Final (July)/ Leading Economic Index Final (July)

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (August)

·       Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (August)

·       Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (September)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/20)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Czech Republic holds the second round of Senate elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane will give the opening remarks at a conference on "Fiscal Policy, Financial Sector Policy and Economic Growth" in Dublin, Ireland.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone will give the keynote speech at the "Economics of Payments XIII" conference organized by the Oesterreichische Nationalbank in Vienna, Austria.

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (August)

·       France Inflation Rate Prel (September)/ PPI (August)

·       Slovakia Business & Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Spain Inflation Rate Prel (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ Business Confidence (September)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (August)/ Economic Confidence Index (September)

·       Germany Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Italy Industrial Sales (July)/ PPI (August)

·       Euro Area ECB Lane Speech/ Economic & Industrial Sentiment (September)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)/ Selling Price Expectations (September)/ Services Sentiment (September)/ ECB Cipollone Speech

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (August)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (August)

·       Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (September)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (August)

Saturday, September 28, 2024

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the 10th anniversary of the Umbrella Movement, the mass protests in Hong Kong over election rights and the ability of city citizens to pick their own local leadership.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 29, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Austria holds Parliamentary elections. 183 seats of the National Council and lower house of parliament are up.  The far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) currently is polling at 26%, and the center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) led by incumbent Chancellor Karl Nehammer with 25%. The Social Democratic Party (SPÖ) is close behind with 21% (which means no single party will likely secure a majority, forcing a coalition government).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (August)/ Private Bank Lending (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Central Banks Dominate the Markets and Politics this Week, Voting Begins in Pennsylvania and a Number of Other States, and the Quad Leaders Meet with President Biden to Discuss Indo-Pacific Security Issues

For markets this coming week, it is all about central bank meetings and interest rates.  The U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the Central Bank of Brazil all meet.  But of them all, the U.S. Fed’s decision will likely be the most impactful as markets debate whether it is a 25—or 50-basis cut. 

Against this global monetary backdrop, voting begins in the U.S., with Pennsylvania kicking off in-person voting and a number of other states beginning mail-in voting.  The Fed’s decision to cut rates – if, in fact, that is what they do – is likely to incur the wrath of former President Trump, who has already suggested such a cut two months before the election, is meant to tip the political scales for Vice President Kamala Harris and Democrats.   But as this happens, the U.S. Congress seems to be marching toward another government shutdown as House Republicans battle over what should be added to a Continuing Resolution (C.R.) to keep the government open until at least after the elections.  History has repeatedly shown that the political party that causes shutdowns pays for it at the ballot box.  There is hope a last-minute solution can be reached, but the timeline is getting increasingly tight.

Meanwhile, President Biden will host the Quad Summit in his home state of Delaware this week.  The Prime Ministers of India, Japan, and Australia will gather with Biden to discuss the current security situation in the Indo-Pacific and how best to deal with growing tensions with China in the South China Sea and elsewhere.   As this is happening – and on a positive note – the top Chinese General in the region, General Wu Yanan, is expected to visit the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command in Hawaii this week.  It has been at least three years since such a meeting has taken place and it is considered to be a notable step in improving relations and engagement between China and the U.S.  The visit comes after a video conference call between the General Yanan and Admiral Samuel Paparo, Head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, the first such call in a long time.

Turning back to the global economic radar screen for the week, markets are watching the August US retail sales numbers and industrial production figures.  In Europe, the U.K. releases its August inflation prints, while Germany releases the latest ZEW survey.  In Asia, Japan’s August CPI and trade balance are out this week, while China releases retail sales and industrial production figures.

Below are the many other important events and releases we are watching this coming week: 

Sunday, September 15, 2024

Global

·       Muslims worldwide mark "al-Mawlid al-Nabawi", the birthday of Prophet Mohammed.

·       The IMF will resume online consultations with Russia ahead of the organization's first visit to the country since 2019. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Argentine President Javier Milei presents budget for 2025 to Congress. He is breaking normal tradition of sending it and instead deliver it in person.

·       After signing into law the controversial new judicial reform bill, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador leads 'cry of independence' ceremony in Mexico City, his final public event as president.

·       Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua all celebrate their respective Independence Days today.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 56th ASEAN Economic Ministers Meet  (AEM) takes place in Vientiane, Laos.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China FDI (YTD) (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Romania holds presidential elections. Independent candidate Mircea Geoană is estimated to secure the most votes, followed closely by the Prime Minister and leader of the Social Democrat Party (PSD), Marcel Ciolacu.

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz begins his first trip to Central Asia with visits to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.  The trip comes after Scholz hosted the leaders of five central Asian nations in Berlin in 2023 to discuss closer cooperation and to find a way to pry away growing relations these nations are building with Russia and China.  Scholz will take part in the C5+1 meeting in Kazakhstan (the C5 being Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan). 

·        The NATO Military Committee meets in Prague, Czech Republic.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates in a fireside chat at the Open Day 2024 of Deutsche Bundesbank in Frankfurt, Germany.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       In Iran, today is the 2nd anniversary of protests sparked by death of Mahsa Amini arrested for alleged breach of Iran's strict dress code.  The government is enforcing a strict lock-down on any protests or visits to her grave.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (August) / Wholesale Prices (August)

·       Israel Inflation Rate (August)/ M1 Money Supply (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Students in Nigeria will hold nationwide protests over rising fuel prices.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 16, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East.  Humanitarian Coordinator for Gaza Sigrid Kaag reports to the Council her latest findings.

·       UN Security Council The UN nuclear watchdog IAEA holds its annual General Conference in Geneva.

·       The UN Special Rapporteurs will press conference on violence and human rights violations in Gaza, occupied Palestinian Territories in Geneva.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Former President Donald Trump launches his cryptocurrency platform World Liberty Financial with a live address from Mar-a-Lago, Florida.

·       Pennsylvania beings early voting.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales Final (July)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (July)

·       USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (September)/ NOPA Crush Report

·       Colombia Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (July)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       ASEAN Economic ministers gather in Vientiane. The high-level gathering, meant to foster economic cooperation and integration, comes as the region continues to navigate challenges brought by geopolitical tensions and China's slowing economy.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (August)

·       India Passenger Vehicles Sales (August)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (July)

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Germany will introduce stricter controls at its land borders for the next six months. 

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Research Ministers through September 17 in Budapest, Hungary. 

·       Audi unions have called for demonstration by auto workers against job losses in Europe.

·       An initiative group headed by Armenia's former justice minister will begin collecting signatures on the issue of holding a referendum on Armenia's accession to the European Union.

Economic Reports/Events –

European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in a conversation at event VII Foro Banca organized by El Economista in Madrid, Spain.

European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a speech at the European Investment Bank Chief Economists' meeting in Luxembourg.

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (August)

·       Euro Area ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts/ ECB Guindos Speech/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Labour Cost Index Q2/ Wage Growth Q2/ ECB Lane Speech

·       Italy Inflation Rate Final (August)/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (July)

·       Serbia Building Permits (July)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (August)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (July)

·       Turkey Auto Production (August)/ Auto Sales (August)/ Budget Balance (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q2/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Oman Inflation Rate (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (August)

Tuesday, September 17, 2024

Global

·       In Geneva, A UN sponsored independent international Fact-Finding Mission Venezuela’s latest report to the Human Rights Council will be launched.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Former Bolivian President Evo Morales and allied unions begin march to La Paz to call for his presidential candidacy.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Housing Starts (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ CPI Median (August)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (August)

·       USA Retail Sales (August)/ Redbook (September/14)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Capacity Utilization (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)/ Business Inventories (July)/ Fed Logan Speech/ NAHB Housing Market Index (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/13)/ International Monetary Market (IMM) Date

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Unemployment Rate Final Q2

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Japan Tertiary Industry Index (July)

·       India WPI Food & Fuel Index (August)/ WPI Inflation (August)/ WPI Manufacturing (August)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (September/17)

·       Australia RBA Jones Speech

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·        European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will announce plans for the make-up of her next commission in the European Parliament. 

·       The European Parliament will hold its first plenary session since the summer break (its second since EU elections in June) through September 19.  They are expected to debate and vote on a resolution on Venezuela and the recent fraudulent elections.

·       Moldova will host a ministerial conference within the Moldova Partnership Platform to support the country's European integration.  This is being done in conjunction with the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) making a pre-electoral visit to Moldova through September 18 to assess the country's political climate. 

·       Milan Fashion Week begins.  Derek Zoolander will not be there.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives opening remark at the Supervisory Culture Conference organized by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates on a panel entitled Culture and Supervisory Risk Tolerance" at Supervisory Culture Conference organized by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates on a panel Participation entitled "Supervisory Effectiveness" at Supervisory Culture Conference organized by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (September)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (September)/ ZEW Current Conditions (September)

·       Belarus GDP (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Current Account Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Consumer Confidence Q3

Wednesday, September 18, 2024

Global

·       The UN General Assembly will hold a special session, vote on Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories.  It is expected they will vote to call on Israel to end military action in Gaza and withdraw.  The resolution is expected to call Israel’s actions there as “unlawful.”

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA).  

·       The G20 Research and Innovation Ministerial meeting will be held in Manaus, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       New York City will hold its Inaugural National Urban Rat Summit on combatting rat infestations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meets to discuss interest rates.  Fed Chair Powell will host a press conference afterward at 2:30 p.m. EST.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/13)/ Building Permits Prel (August)/ Housing Starts (August)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (September/13)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (July)/ Foreign Bond Investment (July)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (July)

·       Mexico Aggregate Demand Q2/ Private Spending Q2

·       Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (July)/ BoC Summary of Deliberations

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (July)

·       Argentina GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Central Bank of Brazil Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India's Jammu and Kashmir holds local elections , marking the Himalayan region's first polls in a decade and five years after New Delhi yanked its special autonomy status. The vote will be held over several phases with results expected early next month.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Westpac Consumer Confidence Q3/ Current Account Q2

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Machinery Orders (July)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (August)

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (August)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate (September)

·       India M3 Money Supply (September/06)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Services PMI (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets International Committee of the Red Cross President Mirjana Spoljaric in Moscow.  Spoljaric will be attending the 4th Eurasian Women’s Forum being held in Moscow.

·       Swedish Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard will make her first foreign visit to Turkey since Turkey allowed Sweden to join NATO.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives opening remarks at the  Supervision Innovators Conference 2024 "Technology and banking supervision connected" organized by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives a speech on "The future of European banking supervision - connecting people and technology" at Supervision Innovators Conference 2024 "Technology and banking supervision connected" organized by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI Output (August)/ PPI Input (August)/ Retail Price Index (August)

·       Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)

·       Euro Area ECB Buch Speech/ Inflation Rate Final (August)/ Construction Output (July)/ CPI Final (August)/ ECB McCaul Speech

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (July)

·       Russia PPI (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Oman M2 Money Supply (July)/ Total Credit (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Africa Aerospace and Defence (AAD) Begins in Centurion, South Africa.

·       significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Ghana GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August)

Thursday, September 19, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East (Gaza and Israeli settlements). 

·       G7 Culture Ministers meet Positano, Italy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Wisconsin starts mailing ballots to voters who requested them.

·       Colombia’s Workers Central Union will hold protests in Bogota in support of President Gustavo Petro’s economic and social policies. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA Current Account Q2/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/14)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (September)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (September)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (September)/ Philly Fed Employment (September)/ Philly Fed New Orders (September)/ Philly Fed Prices Paid (September)/ Existing Home Sales (August)/ CB Leading Index (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September/13)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/18)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/18)

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (July)/ Imports (July)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (August)/ Unemployment Rate Q2

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       The Bank of Japan meets to decide interest rates.

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (September/14)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/14)

·       Australia Employment Change (August)/ Participation Rate (August)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Taiwan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       China's Commerce Minister Wang Wentao holds talks with EU's Valdis Dombrovskis on EV tariffs in Brussels.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Transportation Ministers in Budapest, Hungary through September 20.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen will participate in a press conference with Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, on support to Ukraine’s energy security for the coming winter.  Later, she will host a working lunch with the leaders of the six Western Balkan partners.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of England meets to discuss and decide interest rates.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in an exchange of views on "Current aspects of monetary policy" with Association of German Banks (Committee for Economic and Monetary Policy) in Frankfurt, Germany.  Later, she chairs a session entitled “Jean Monnet Lecture” at the 9th ECB Annual Research Conference in Frankfurt.

·       European Union New Car Registrations (August)

·       Euro Area Current Account (July)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (August)/ SECO Economic Forecasts

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (August)/ Employment Growth (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ PPI (August)

·       Italy Current Account (July)

·       Serbia Current Account (July)

·       Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending & Borrowing Rate (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/13)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

·       Slovakia Current Account (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (September)

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (July)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

·       Angola Interest Rate Decision

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (August)

Friday, September 20, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria). 

·       The UN’s Summit of the Future Action Days  begins and runs through September 23 in New York.  The theme is "#YouthLead for the Future: We believe in the promise of a better world for all". 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Minnesota and South Dakota start mail and in-person early voting; Virginia begins in-person early voting.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on "The Federal Reserve: It's More Than Just Interest Rates" before the Tulane University Freeman School of Business Lecture event in New Orleans, Louisiana.

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (August)/ Retail Sales (July)/ PPI (August)/ Raw Materials Prices (August)

·       USA Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/20)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (August)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (August)

·       Argentina Leading Indicator (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Inflation Rate (August)/ BoJ Interest Rate Decision

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (September)

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (August)

·       Hong Kong Current Account Q2/ Inflation Rate (August)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (September/06)/ Deposit Growth (September/06)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/13)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Czech Republic holds the first round of Senate elections.

·       Today is the deadline for EU member states under excessive deficit procedure to issue their medium-term fiscal adjustment plans, which most countries are set to miss. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the 2024 Michel Camdessus Central Banking Lecture organized by the IMF in Washington, DC.  She then participates in a conversation with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva at the IMF.

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Board Catherine Mann gives the keynote speech at the Central Bank Research Association, National Bank of Poland, and Bank of Lithuania 5th Biennial Conference entitled “Macroeconomic adjustments after large global shocks” in Lithuania.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Prudential Policy David Bailey gives a speech at the Building Societies Association entitled “Strong and Simple – Completing the Picture” in London.

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (September)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing (August)

·       Germany PPI (August)

·       France Business Confidence (September)

·       Switzerland Current Account Q2

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (September)/ Central Government Debt (August)

·       Greece Current Account (July)

·       Italy Construction Output (June)/ Construction Output (July)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (July)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (September)/ PPI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash (September)

·       Slovakia Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Russia Consumer Confidence Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (August)/ Total Credit Growth (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (August)

·       Ghana PPI (August)

Saturday, September 21, 2024

Global

·       The G20 Tourism Ministerial Meetings take place in Belem, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Joe Biden will host the Quad Summit in Wilmington, Delaware.  The leaders of Australia, Japan, and India will gather to discuss security issues in the Indo-Pacific.

·       Today is the federal deadline for all absentee ballots to be mailed to military and overseas voters. Eleven states will send out their mail-in ballots by this day, and North Carolina is expected to as well.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Sri Lanka holds Presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Oktoberfest begins in Munich, Germany and runs through October 6.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nigeria holds gubernatorial elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 22, 2024 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Thailand New Car Sales (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Germany, the state of Brandenburg holds state elections.

·       Switzerland holds a referendum vote on initiative to strengthen biodiversity protection.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today in South Sudan is the deadline for dissolution of the transitional unity government ahead of possible December elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Mexico’s Senate Holds Final Vote on Controversial Judicial Reform Bill; Trump and Harris Debate, and the ECB Makes A Tough Call on Interest Rates

September 9 - 13, 2024

Markets are nervously watching the Mexican government's legislative march toward making the judiciary an elected role rather than one that is appointed, from the Supreme Court on down.  Only one other nation elects its Supreme Court—Bolivia—and it did not turn out very well.  As the Economist reported this week, it's been a complete disaster, leading to a heavily politicized judiciary and several attempted coups.

Both the Canadian and US governments, via their ambassadors in Mexico City, have expressed their strong concerns, and businesses are worried contract law will become the domain of local politicians and drug cartels.  Despite widespread protests in opposition to the measure, the Mexican Senate is expected to ratify the measure this week following the Mexican lower House passing it last week.  The legislation is all part of outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's (AMLO) move to punish the Supreme Court for overturning several of his other highly controversial legislative efforts.  Interestingly, there is a good chance the Supreme Court will rule the legislation itself is unconstitutional, which will set up a very tense political scenario in Mexico City  (for an excellent brief on the situation, our friend Ryan Berg at the Center for Strategic and International Studies wrote a superb overview you can read  HERE).

Also this week, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris will meet for their first (and perhaps only) presidential debate Tuesday night.  The stakes could not be higher as most recent polling shows the two candidates locked neck-and-neck with two months to go before the elections.

Turning to the global economic radar screen this week, markets are cautiously watching the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday to see if the ECB lowers rates further or holds off as several EU countries – particularly Germany – struggle economically. 

Also this week, US inflation figures for August are released, hopefully further solidifying market expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin lowering rates when they meet the following week (September 18).  The debate has gotten a little heated this past week as to whether it would be a cut of 25 basis points or if the Fed would go big and cut 50 basis points.  Also, this week, the University of Michigan consumer survey comes out Friday, and most economists expect it to tick up slightly.

Looking at what else is going on in Europe this week aside from the ECB meeting, the UK releases July GDP figures, which will be important as the UK Parliament begins debating contentious legislation to cut household fuel subsidies this week. 

In Asia, China will have a big week, releasing inflation, trade, and overall economic activity figures—all coming after a recent report showing PMIs sagging.  Also, this week, Japan will release its Economy Watchers Survey and PPI figures. 

Below is what else we are watching closely around the world this coming week:

Sunday, September 8, 2024 

Global

·       The Paralympics’ closing ceremony is held in Paris.

·       The World Nomad Games begin in Kazakhstan.  Athletes compete in 21 different types of sports including Tug-of-War, Horseback Wrestling, Traditional Archery, Horseback Archery, Kok Boru (where horse riders from two teams compete to tear a goat’s carcass from the ground and break through the opposing team’s defenses and put it in the opponents goal), Mas-Wrestling (where two opponents sit opposite each other, resting their feet on a board between their feet, and pull on a stick. The one who pulls the stick or the other guy or both over the board wins), and more.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the deadline for Mexico’s government to present its 2025 budget proposal to Congress.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez begins an official visit to China through September 12.

·       Mozambican President Filipe Jacinto Nyusi will make an official visit to Vietnam through September. 10.  Additionally, Guinea-Bissau President Umaro Sissoco Embalo will also make a simultaneous visit.

·       Pope Francis will continue his Asia and Oceania tour by visiting Papua New Guinea through September 8.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture and Fisheries Ministers in Budapest, Hungary through September 10. In addition to the informal meeting of the ministers, there will be a number of programs offering an insight into Hungarian culture and gastronomy. On the 8th of September ministers and their delegations will be welcomed with a Danube cruise and an opening dinner in the House of Music Hungary.  The meeting will conclude on the September 10 with a kick-off debate on a farmer-focused post 2027 Common Agricultural Policy Towards a competitive, crisis-proof, sustainable, farmer-friendly and knowledge-based future EU agriculture at the Conference Hall of Várkert Bazaar.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 9, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the United Nations peacekeeping operations: Strengthening UN Peacekeeping: Reflections for the Future.

·       The Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency hold board meetings in Vienna, Austria. Board discussions are expected to focus on verification and monitoring in Iran in light of United Nations Security Council resolution 2231 (2015); application of safeguards in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea; nuclear safety, security and safeguards in Ukraine; transfer of the nuclear materials in the context of AUKUS and its safeguards in all aspects under the NPT; application of IAEA safeguards in the Middle East; and the restoration of sovereign equality of Member States in the IAEA.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Congress returns from August recess.

·       US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will meet with Vietnam’s Defense Minister Giang in Washington, D.C.

·       In Bolivia, widespread protests are expected all week.  Former President Evo Morales will be leading the efforts.

·       Apple holds its annual media event to launch their new products, including a new iteration of the iPhone.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

·       USA Wholesale Inventories (July)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)/ Consumer Credit Change (July)/ Used Car Prices (August)/ Total Vehicle Sales (August)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (July)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea will co-host the Responsible AI in the Military Domain Summit in Seoul.  Co-hosting will be Singapore, the Netherlands, Kenya, and the UK.  Representatives from the militaries and governments of more than 90 countries are expected to attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Current Account (July)/ GDP Growth Annualized Final Q2

·       Australia Building Permits Final (July)/ Private House Approvals Final (July)

·       China Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI (August)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Kazakhstan PPI (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Former European Central Bank President and Prime Minister of Italy Mario Draghi presents report on Europe's competitiveness with European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen.

·       Norway’s Prime Minister Jonas Gahr visits Beijing for meetings.  The visit marks the 70th anniversary of bilateral ties between the two countries.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture and Fisheries Ministers through September 10 in Budapest, Hungary.

·       European Commission Vice-President Margaritis Schinas will visit Armenia to take part in the launch of a visa liberalization dialogue with the European Union.

·       NATO holds Steadfast Foxtrot 24 military exercises in Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in a fireside chat at the Barclays Global Financial Conference in New York.

·       Ireland Construction PMI (August)/ Industrial Production (July)

·       Romania Balance of Trade (July)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

·       Hungary Budget Balance (August)

·       Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Hezbollah commemorates slain commander Fuad Shukr 40 days after Israeli strike near Beirut.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (August)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (August)

Tuesday, September 10, 2024

Global

·        The 79th session of the U.N. General Assembly will begin.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Ukraine.

·       National Security Advisors of the BRICS countries will meet in St. Petersburg, Russia to help plan for the BRICS+ Summit in Kazan, Russia in October.

·       OPEC’s Monthly Oil Report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris will participate in their first presidential debate.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (August)/ Redbook (September/07)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/06)

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (August)

·       Canada BoC Macklem Speech

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China's legislative Standing Committee will discuss various draft bills, including ones related to energy and anti-money laundering work, through September 13.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Manufacturing Sales Q2

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (September)/ NAB Business Confidence (August)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (July)/ Motorbike Sales (August)/ Car Sales (August)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (July)

·       Japan Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (August)/ Machine Tool Orders (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The UK Parliament begins debate over proposed cuts to the winter fuel payments plan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Inflation Rate Final (August)

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (July)/ Claimant Count Change (August)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (August)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (August)

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (July)

·       Spain Industrial Production (July)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ Participation Rate (July)

·       Italy Industrial Production (July)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (July)

·       Greece Inflation Rate (August)

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (August)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Jordan holds parliamentary elections.

·       Saudi Arabia hosts the Global Artificial Intelligence Summit  (GAIN) in Riyadh.  There will be more than 400 speakers, 20,000 participants with an expected 25 million online participants.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (July)

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (August)

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (August)

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production (July)

Wednesday, September 11, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on 1591 Committee (regarding the situation in the Sudan), followed by a briefing on 1591 Committee.  They are expected to vote on whether to renew sanctions.

·       G7 Labor Ministers meet through September 13 in Cagliari, Italy.

·       The International Energy Administration publishes the lates monthly oil report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Mexico’s Senate is expected to vote on the highly controversial judicial reform bill.  The lower House approved the bill on September 4.  Demonstrations are expected across Mexico City in opposition to the measure.

·       Microsoft will hold a cybersecurity summit in wake of CrowdStrike outage.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/06)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/06)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ CPI (August)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (September/06)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (July)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (August)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (July)

·       Peru Balance of Trade (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       SEMI (the international semiconductor industry group) will host the Semicon Exhibition in New Delhi, India through September 13.  The event is expected to draw more than 40,000 visitors and host more than 600 exhibitors.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (July)

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Australia RBA Hunter Speech/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Junko Nakagawa will give a speech in Akita, Japan.

·       China Vehicle Sales (August)/ New Yuan Loans (August)/ M2 Money Supply (August)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (August)/ Total Social Financing (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Union President Ursula von der Leyden will announce the new EU Commissioners.

·       There will be a pro-independence march today (Catalan Day) in Catalan, Spain.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates on a panel at the EUROFI Financial Forum in Budapest, Hungary.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates on a  panel discussion "Supervision and regulation – Followers or pacemakers in the "new world"? - Finding the future role of supervision and regulation" at BaFin Conference "SSM 2034 – an outlook" in Bonn, Germany.

·       Romania Inflation Rate (August)

·       Great Britain GDP (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July)/ Construction Output (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (August)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (July)

·       Turkey Retail Sales (July)

·       Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Russia Balance of Trade (July)/ Inflation Rate (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Balance of Trade (April)/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Balance of Trade (June)

Thursday, September 12, 2024

Global

·        The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Yemen).

·       The G20 Agriculture Ministers meet in Cuiaba, Brazil.

·       The UN’s One Planet Network Forum 2024, scheduled for September 12-13 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, will focus on reducing inequalities and achieving just transitions through sustainable consumption and production, highlighting the role of the circular economy. The event will bring together stakeholders from diverse sectors to discuss key topics including green skills, sustainable cities, circular economies, and sustainable public procurement.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Retail Sales (July)

·       Canada Building Permits (July)

·       USA Continuing Jobless Claims (August/31)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/07)/ PPI (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September/06)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/11)/ WASDE Report/ Monthly Budget Statement (August)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/11)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (August)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 11th Xiangshan Forum begins in Beijing and runs through September 14.  The high-level defense and security event brings together military leaders from around the world will attend to discuss the theme “Promoting Peace for a Shared Future.”  More than 30 defense ministers are expected to attend.

·       China’s International Fair for Trade in Services begins in Beijing and runs through September 16.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (August)/ Food Inflation (August)

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Naoki Tamura will give a speech in Okayama, Japan.

·       Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Q3/ Foreign Bond Investment (September/07)/ PPI (August)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/07)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (June)

·       Hong Kong Industrial Production Q2

·       India Industrial Production (July)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ Manufacturing Production (July)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (August)

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

The AI Regulation Forum begins in Brussels.  Policymakers from around Europe and the world will gather to discuss how AI should be regulated and how best to comply with existing laws.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Governing Council of the European Central Bank meets on interest rates in Frankfurt, Germany.  ECB President Christine Lagarde holds a press conference after the meeting.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates on a panel at the EUROFI Financial Forum in Budapest, Hungary.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Kerstin af Jochnick participates on a panel at the EUROFI Financial Forum in Budapest, Hungary.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates on a panel at the EUROFI Financial Forum in Budapest, Hungary.

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (August)/ BoE Breeden Speech

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (August)/ Current Account (July)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (August)

·       Turkey Current Account (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/06)

·       France IEA Oil Market Report

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (August)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Oman Inflation Rate (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Expectations Q3/ Gold Production (July)/ Mining Production (July)

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

Friday, September 13, 2024

Global

·       G20 Digital Ministers meet in Maceio, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. President Joe Biden will hold a meeting at the White House with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade/ Export Prices (August)/ Import Prices (August)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations Prel (September)/ Michigan Current Conditions Prel (September)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel (September)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/13)

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (July)/ Business Confidence (September)

·       Canada Capacity Utilization Q2/ Wholesale Sales Final (July)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Import Prices (August)/ Export Prices (August)

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (August)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Final Q2

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (September)/ Capacity Utilization (July)/ Industrial Production Final (July)

·       Sri Lanka GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/06)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup will meet in Budapest, Hungary.  They will discuss EU macroeconomic developments, get a debrief from the G7, and discuss the situation in Ukraine.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Economic and Financial Affairs Ministers in Budapest, Hungary through September 14. On Friday afternoon, EU ministers and central bank governors would discuss the issue of “sustainable financing of green transition”. The Secretary-General of OECD and the CEO of the Hungarian Government Debt Management Agency would provide presentations on how to bridge financing gap with innovative instruments, how to better mobilize household and other private savings when there is a need to enhance green transition and put public debt on a downward path simultaneously. The Saturday morning session will be devoted to “the effects of demographic changes on public debt sustainability”, where delegations will discuss debt sustainability risks in the context of aging societies and possible lines of action. This issue is a top priority for the Hungarian EU Presidency, as it put at risk the EU’s long-term economic prosperity due to shrinking working-age population and labor shortages.  The discussion will be based on the contribution of the Brussels-based think tank, Bruegel. During the ministerial working lunch the Managing Director of the IMF will outline “the new financing opportunities in supporting low-income countries in their response to global challenges”. 

·       The NATO Military Committee Conference will begin in Prague, Czech Republic and run through September 15. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Romania Industrial Production (July)/ Current Account (July)

·       Hungary Construction Output (July)/ Industrial Production Final (July)

·       France Inflation Rate Final (August)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (August)

·       Euro Area Industrial Production (July)

·       Greece Construction Output Q2

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

·       Poland Balance of Trade (July)/ Current Account (July)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (August)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (August)

Saturday, September 14, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China House Price Index (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ NBS Press Conference

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates in a fireside chat at the Open Day 2024 of Deutsche Bundesbank in Frankfurt, Germany. 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 15, 2024 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua all celebrate their respective Independence Days today.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 56th ASEAN Economic Ministers Meet  (AEM) takes place in Vientiane, Laos.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China FDI (YTD) (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Romania holds presidential elections. Independent candidate Mircea Geoană is estimated to secure the most votes, followed closely by the Prime Minister and leader of the Social Democrat Party (PSD), Marcel Ciolacu.

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz begins his first trip to Central Asia with visits to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.  The trip comes after Scholz hosted the leaders of five central Asian nations in Berlin in 2023 to discuss closer cooperation and to find a way to pry away growing relations these nations are building with Russia and China.  Scholz will take part in the C5+1 meeting in Kazakhstan (the C5 being Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan). 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area ECB Buch Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (August) / Wholesale Prices (August)

·       Israel Inflation Rate (August)/ M1 Money Supply (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Students in Nigeria will hold nationwide protests over rising fuel prices.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Summer is Over, and A Hectic Autumn Begins: US Elections Heat Up, China Ramps Up Relations with Africa, Germany’s Historic Elections, And What US Job Figures Will Tell Markets

September 1 - 8, 2024

Summer is now over (per the UK Meteorological calendar, which says September 1 is the first day of Autumn, and we are entering a hectic and likely historic autumn.   The US presidential elections loom a little over two months away (the first presidential debate between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is scheduled for September 10).  

But in the coming week, there will be some very significant events markets will watch closely.  Beijing will be bustling this coming week as China hosts the China-Africa Forum.  Leaders from across Africa will attend the meeting to discuss climate issues, increased trade opportunities, and likely new loans from China to many of the attending countries.  The meeting is all part of Beijing's efforts to expand its influence across the continent while securing critical mineral rights and increased trade opportunities.

But that is not all that is happening in Beijing this week.  UK Foreign Minister David Lammy is expected to visit for meetings with China's top diplomat, Wang Yi, and a possible meeting with President Xi Jinping.  Additionally, Chief US Climate Advisor to President Biden, John Podesta, will visit to discuss cementing new climate goals. At the same time, US Undersecretary of Commerce for International Trade, Marisa Lago, will travel to Tianjin, China for meetings with her counterpart on a wide range of issues stressing the US-China relationship.  Both the Podesta and Lago meetings come on the heal of US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan's meeting with President Xi and Foreign Minister Wang last week. 

The big event in Europe this week is the state elections held today in Germany (Sunday) – the impact of which is shaking most of the rest of Europe and beyond.  The states of Saxony and Thuringia held votes, and it appears the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) Party has won in Thuringia – the first time a far-right party has won a state poll since World War II.  The AfD took second place in Saxony – but just by a little more than a percentage point – to the Christian Democrat Party.  Additionally, the far-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) showed growing strength in both elections, coming in third in both, while the ruling SPD Party came in a very weak fourth place.  

Both the AfD and the BSW strongly oppose military and financial aid to Ukraine, and both have expressed sympathy for Russian President Vladimir Putin's views on the War.  However,  neither party is expected to win enough seats to form a ruling coalition.  And virtually no other party wants to create a coalition with the AfD due to their neo-Nazi leanings.

Also, this week in Europe, former Italian Prime Minister and  European Central Bank Chief Mario Draghi will meet with EU Parliamentary leaders to discuss a forthcoming "landmark" report on EU competitiveness.  Last year, EU President Ursula von der Leyen asked Draghi to conduct the study and recommend how the EU can better compete globally.  The report is expected to make a number of seismic recommendations, primarily aimed at filling the productivity gap between the EU, the US, and China.

Also this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin travels to Mongolia to commemorate the joint Soviet-Mongolian defeat of Japan in World War II.  But the real significance of the trip is that Mongolia is a signatory of the International Criminal Court, which has a warrant out for Putin's arrest since 2023 for war crimes.  This is Putin's first visit to an ICC signatory nation since he directed the invasion of Ukraine.  Mongolia has no intention of honoring that signature or of arresting Putin, a blow to the ICC's stature.

Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen for the coming week, markets are looking at the US jobs report (non-farm payrolls) being released this coming Friday (will they be softer or more robust than expected, and will that, in turn, lead to a larger rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this month?).   Also this week, the Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book, and the Bank of Canada meets to decide interest rates.

Moving to Asia, China releases PMIs and the Caixin indexes, while Japan releases closely watched wage figures, and Australia releases second-quarter GDP figures.

In Europe, markets will closely follow the EU Parliament's reception of the Draghi reported above.   Meanwhile, Germany will release closely watched industrial production and trade balance figures as well as factory orders—all critical indicators of whether the German economy is beginning to recover or is still struggling. 

Below are the other key events around the world we are watching closely:

Sunday, September 1, 2024 

Global

·       Slovenia assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of September.

·       UN General-Secretary Antonio Guterres visits Singapore for meetings.  He will then travel to China to participate in the China-Africa Forum.

·       Today is the first day of Autumn per the UK Met Meteorological calendar.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Chief US Climate Advisor to President Biden, John Podesta, will travel to China for meetings on how to advance further mutual climate agreements.

·       Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador gives an annual speech on the executive branch’s accomplishments, similar to a State of the Nation address.  President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum will be sworn into office on October 1.   Also, Mexican students are expected to turn out in large numbers to protest the President’s proposed judicial reform effort.  The lower chamber of Congress, sworn into office today, begins debate on the measure today.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indonesia hosts the 2nd Annual Indonesia-Africa Forum in Bali.  Indonesian President Joko Widodo and more than 30 African leaders will meet for three days to discuss how to deepen political and economic ties, build stronger supply chains and healthcare systems.

·       Azerbaijan holds parliamentary elections.

·       Today is Uzbekistan Independence Day, celebrating when the country was able to declare its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

·       Today is Constitution Day in Kazakhstan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade AUG

·       Australia CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM AUG

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Germany, state elections will be held in Saxony and Thuringia.  The far-right AfD Party is expected to win a significant share and possibly a majority of the votes.

·       UK Foreign Minister David Lammy will travel to Beijing for meetings to discuss trade and security issues.

·       Czechia will hold regional elections and the election of one-third of the Senate.

·       The GLOBSEC Forum 2024 will be held in Prague, Czechia. 

·       Border Force agents at Heathrow Airport are expected to go on strike through September 3.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 2, 2024

Global

·       Pope Francis begins a four-country Asia visit over twelve days and participates in more than 40 events.  Improving the Catholic-Muslim dialogue and climate change is at his agenda.  He will begin the trip to Indonesia, then travel to Papua New Guinea, East Timor, and Singapore.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris and President Joe Biden hold a campaign event in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

·       Bolivia is bracing for widespread national protests over the current economic crisis and shortage of dollars and fuel.

·       Today is Labor Day in the US and Canada. Financial markets and banks, as well as the US and Canadian governments, are closed.

·       Today is the 79th Anniversary of “VJ Day” when Japanese Foreign Minister Mamoru Shigemitsu and General Yoshijiro Umezu, on board the American warship the U.S.S. Missouri, signed the Potsdam Declaration, a document of surrender that the Allies had drawn up.

Economic Reports/Events

·       Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ Business Confidence (August)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (July)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South African President Cyril Ramaphosa will begin a state visit to China that runs through September 5.  Ramaphosa is also going to attend the Forum on China-Africa (Focac).  China is South Africa’s largest trading partner in Africa with more than $34 billion in exports to South Africa in 2023.  South Africa exported more than $12 billion to China in 2023.

·       South Korea will conduct a drill in Incheon on how to respond to “Disease X,” an unknown pathogen when it is detected and how to respond.

·       The BIMSTEC Summit (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) begins in Bangkok, Thailand and runs through September 4.

·       Today is Independence Day in Vietnam, marking the day the country was independent from France in 1945.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (August)/ Building Permits (July)/ Company Gross Profits Q2/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (August)/ Business Inventories Q2/ Private House Approvals Prel (July)/ Commodity Prices (August)

·       Japan Capital Spending Q2/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (August)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)/ Inflation Rate (August)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Business Confidence (August)

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (August)

·       Kazakhstan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ Wholesale Prices (August)

·       Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• French President Emmanual Macron is expected to meet with former Socialist Party official Bernard Cazeneuve about possibly serving as the next French Prime Minister.  Macron has been struggling to form a new government after recent elections.

• There will be an Informal Meeting of the EU General Affairs Council in Budapest, Hungary, through September 3.  The agenda will address two priorities of the Hungarian Presidency – which are interlinked: boosting the EU’s competitiveness and tackling demographic challenges. A plenary session will examine the possibilities of enhancing competitiveness and the rule of law through better law-making, followed by breakout sessions on the different aspects of competitiveness. Ministers will discuss demographic challenges during their working lunch. 

• The Bled Strategic Forum begins in Bled, Slovenia, and runs through September 3.  EU President Ursula von der Leyen will speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Average Weekly Earnings Q2/ Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ GNP Q2

·       Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Final (June)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (July)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Spain Tourist Arrivals (July)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)/ New Car Sales (August)

·       Turkey GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ PPI (July)/ New Car Registrations (August)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (August)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (August)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (August)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (August)

·       Serbia GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel’s largest labor union, the Histadrut Labor Federation, has called for a one-day strike to protest the government’s failure to secure a cease-fire in Gaza and the failure to get the hostages back.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (July)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (July)/ Private Bank Lending (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Africa Food Systems Summit begins in Kigali, Rwanda and runs through September 6.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (August)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (August)

Tuesday, September 3, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (July)/ Gross Fixed Investment (June)

·       USA Redbook (August/31)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (August)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (August)/ Construction Spending (July)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (August)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (August)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (September)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (August)/ Total Vehicle Sales (August)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (August)

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Mongolia to mark the 85th anniversary of the victory of Soviet and Mongolian forces over Japan in World War II.  This is a significant trip as Mongolia is a signatory to the International Criminal Court (ICC) which has a warrant out for the arrest of Putin for war crimes.  

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Exports/ Imports/ Terms of Trade Q2/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (September/03)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (August)

·       Australia Current Account Q2/ Net Exports Contribution to GDP Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Former Volkswagen CEO Martin Winterkorn goes on trial for his role in the “Dieselgate” scandal.

·       Russia will host the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok through September 6.  Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and several other Asian leaders ae expected to attend.

·       The 32nd International Defense Industry Exhibition begins in Kielce, Poland.  Approximately 800 defense industry representatives will gather to exhibit the latest in military hardware.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank Single Supervisory Mechanism and he European Banking Authority are jointly hosting a conference in Frankfurt looking at supervisory convergence. The conference runs through September 4.  Today, a host of international bank regulators and central bankers are speaking including Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu, Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden, European Central Bank Board Members Kerstin Jochnick, Elizabeth McCaul, IMF Deputy Director for Monetary and Capital Markets Marina Moretti, ohn Berrigan, Director General for Financial Stability, Financial Services and Capital Markets Union, European Commission, Jennifer Burns, Deputy Director, Division of Supervision & Regulation, Federal Reserve Board, Agustín Carstens, General Manager of the Bank of International Settlements.

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (August)

·       Romania PPI (July)

·       Hungary GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       France Budget Balance (July)

·       Slovakia Real Wages Q2

·       Spain Unemployment Change (August)/ Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (August)

·       Qatar Financial Centre PMI (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye will travel to China for a state visit through September 6.

·       The World Congress on Industrial Biotechnology will convene in Harare, Zimbabwe.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (August)

·       South Africa GDP Growth Rate Q2

Wednesday, September 4, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Negotiators from the European Union and the Mercosur trade bloc of South American countries will meet in Brasilia to resume free trade negotiations through September 6. 

·       The US will host the fifth meeting of the U.S.-South Korea Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group in Washington, DC.

·       In Bolivia, the Movement Towards Socialism National Congress will meet.  Former President Evo Morales is expected to lay out his strategy to become the next president.

·       New York Fashion Week for the Spring/Summer 2025 season begins.  Will Derek Zoolander be there?  Or Hansel?  He’s so hot right now.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/30)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ JOLTs Job Openings (July)/ Factory Orders (July)/ Fed Beige Book/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/30)

·       Brazil Industrial Production (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (August)

·       Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and press conference/Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (August)

·       Colombia PPI (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Singapore through September 5.

·       The Forum on China-Africa Cooperation begins in Beijing and runs through September 6.  This is the largest diplomatic event China has held in recent years.  African leaders normally sign a number of large loan agreements with Beijing at this event, but this year may be different as China’s economy struggles and the government is expected to cut back the size of loans.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Australia Ai Group Industry/ Construction/ Manufacturing Index (August)/ Judo Bank Services/ Composite PMI Final (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q2/ GDP Chain Price Index Q2/ GDP Final Consumption Q2/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (August)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Services/ Composite PMI Final (August)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       China Caixin Services/ Composite PMI (August)

·       India HSBC Services/ Composite PMI Final (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August/23)

·       Kazakhstan S&P Global Services PMI (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Former Italian Prime Minister and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will give an initial presentation of his landmark report on EU competitiveness to senior members of the various political groups of the European Parliament.  The report is likely to propose “a radical change” for EU’s economy. More than 400 pages long, the report looks at the energy, defense, and other major sectors and how they can become more globally competitive.  A formal presentation of the report will take place in the latter half of September.

·       UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer takes part in first Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) following the end of the summer recess.  The UK Parliament came back into session on Monday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will give a  keynote speech at the Joint European Banking Authority & European Central Bank international conference "Addressing supervisory challenges through enhanced cooperation" in Frankfurt.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Russia S&P Global Services/ Composite PMI (August)

·       Spain HCOB Services/ Composite PMI (August)

·       Italy HCOB Services/ Composite PMI (August)

·       France HCOB Services/ Composite PMI (August)

·       Germany HCOB Services/ Composite PMI (August)

·       Euro Area HCOB Services/ Composite PMI (August)/ PPI (July)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (July)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Composite PMI Final (August)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (September)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Prel (August)/ Auto Production & Sales (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi will meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara, Turkey. The two leaders are expected to discuss the situation in Gaza and expansion of trade.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (August)

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The World Conference on Soil, Water, Energy and Air will take place in Victoria, Seychelles.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (August)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (August)/ Business Confidence Q3

·       Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (August)

·       Ghana S&P Global PMI (August)

Thursday, September 5, 202 

Global

·       In Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, the Fifth Global Conference on Strengthening Synergies between the Paris Agreement on Climate Change and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development: Building a Just World and a Sustainable Planet will be held through September 6. The Conference is being co-convened by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat, and hosted by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Brazil. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The tax fraud trial of Hunter Biden, President Biden’s son, begins in Los Angeles, California.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (August)/ ADP Employment Change (August)/ Initial Jobless Claims (August/31)/ S&P Global Services/ Composite PMI (August)/ ISM Services PMI (August)/ EIA Natural Gas & Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (August/30)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/04)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/04)

·       Canada Labor Productivity Q2/ S&P Global Services/ Composite PMI (August)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (August)

·       Colombia Exports (July)

·       Brazil Car Production (August)/ New Car Registrations (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Perth, Australia, Japan and Australia hold a 2-plus-2 defense and foreign ministers’ meetings.  Japan's Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa and Defense Minister Minoru Kihara will meet with Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Defense Minister Richard Marles in the first 2-plus-2 meeting since late 2022 in Tokyo. The primary focus of the meetings is China’s growing military expansion in the Indo-Pacific.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Hajime Takata gives a speech to local business leaders in in Ishikawa, Japan/ Japan Average Cash Earnings (July)/ Overtime Pay (July)/ Foreign Bond Investment (August/31)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August/31)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (August)

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock will give a speech at the Anika Foundation in Sydney, Australia/Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (August)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (July)

·       Malaysia Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU ministers responsible for cohesion policy in Budapest, Hungary through September 6.  The agenda, according to the Hungarian government, which is chairing the EU through December, is to hold a high-level debate on the Policy's role in promoting competitiveness and employment, and effectively addressing demographic challenges. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen will participate in a fireside chat at Handelsblatt Banking Summit 2024 "Navigating the Storm: Banking Amid Interest Rate Changes, Real Estate Crises, and Geopolitical Uncertainty” in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Germany Factory Orders (July)/ New Car Registrations (August)

·       Romania Retail Sales (July)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Prel (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       France HCOB Construction PMI (August)/ New Car Registrations (July)

·       Germany HCOB Construction PMI (August)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (August)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (August)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (August)

·       Serbia PPI (August)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/30)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Jordan PPI (July)

·       Israel Business Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Current Account Q2

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, September 6, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will give a speech at the University of Notre Dame’s Department of Economics.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to speak before the C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics organized by the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

·       Chile Inflation Rate (August)

·       Mexico Auto Exports (August)/ Auto Production (August)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (August)/ Employment Change (August)/ Participation Rate (August)/ Ivey PMI s.a (August)

·       USA Unemployment Rate (August)/ Participation Rate (August)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/06)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (August)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is expected to travel to Seoul, South Korea for meetings with President Yook Suk Yeol.   It will be one of Kishada’s last foreign trips before he steps down from office.  Bilateral relations between Japan and South Korea have warmed up considerably since the resolution this past March between the two countries over how to compensate Koreans who were forced to labor for Japanese occupation forces during World War II.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (July)

·       Japan Household Spending (July)/ Coincident Index Prel (July)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (July)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Australia Home Loans (July)/ Investment Lending for Homes (July)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (August/23)/ Deposit Growth (August/23)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/30)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Ukraine Defense Contact Group will meet at Ramstein Airbase in Ramstein, Germany.  Approximately 50 countries will be represented at the meeting chaired by US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.  The focus of the meeting will be to further coordinate aid as well as find ways to accelerate military aid to Ukraine.

·       The 50th European House-Ambrosetti Conference takes place through September 7 in Milan, Italy.  Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban will speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives a keynote speech at the ESCB Legal Conference 2024 (a virtual event).

·       France Non-Farm Payrolls Q2/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Current Account (July)

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Industrial Production (July)

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est Q2

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (August)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (August)

·       Hungary Industrial Production Prel (July)/ Budget Balance (August)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (July)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Italy Retail Sales (July)

·       Euro Area GDP Growth Rate 3rd Est Q2/ Employment Change Final Q2

·       Greece Balance of Trade (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Ireland Construction Output Q2

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ Vehicle Sales (August)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Swaziland Independence Day, marking the day the country was granted independence from the UK in 1968.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Saturday, September 7, 2024

Global

·       The 13th BRICS Trade Union Forum will occur in Sochi, Russia.  The meeting brings together the leaders of the major trade unions of the respective BRIC member nations to better coordinate amongst themselves on worker-related issues.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Undersecretary of Commerce for International Trade Marisa Lago will travel to Tianjin, China, for a meeting with China’s Vice Minister Wang Shouwen.  They are expected to discuss a wide range of topics, including US tariffs on China. The meeting will follow the recent visit of US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan to Beijing.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez will visit Beijing and Shanghai for meetings through September 12.  Sanchez, who has been plagued with corruption charges against him and his wife, is expected to discuss ongoing trade disputes between the EU and China, which have hit Spain in the areas of pork products, dairy, and brandy exports.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Algeria holds presidential elections. Incumbent President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, who is not popular among the electorate, faces two weak challengers and is expected to win in a landslide.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 8, 2024

Global

• The Paralympics’ closing ceremony is held in Paris.

• The World Nomad Games begin in Kazakhstan.  Athletes compete in 21 different types of sports, including Tug-of-War, Horseback Wrestling, Traditional Archery, Horseback Archery, Kok Boru (where horse riders from two teams compete to tear a goat’s carcass from the ground and break through the opposing team’s defenses and put it in the opponents goal), Mas-Wrestling (where two opponents sit opposite each other, resting their feet on a board between their feet, and pull on a stick. The one who pulls the stick or the other guy or both over the board wins), and more.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the deadline for Mexico’s government to present its 2025 budget proposal to Congress.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture and Fisheries Ministers in Budapest, Hungary through September 10. In addition to the informal meeting of the ministers, there will be a number of programs offering an insight into Hungarian culture and gastronomy. On the 8th of September ministers and their delegations will be welcomed with a Danube cruise and an opening dinner in the House of Music Hungary.  The meeting will conclude on the September 10 with a kick-off debate on a farmer-focused post 2027 Common Agricultural Policy Towards a competitive, crisis-proof, sustainable, farmer-friendly and knowledge-based future EU agriculture at the Conference Hall of Várkert Bazaar.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

August 25 - September 1, 2024

In Focus: Still Holding Out Hope for a Gaza Cease Fire; US National Security Advisor Sullivan Heads to China for High-Level Talks; Mexico’s Judges Protest Against Sweeping Reforms, and Inflation Data Released Before the Federal Reserve’s Next Meeting

Summer comes to an end this week, and we are all bracing for an extremely busy Autumn in the US and around the world.  The tense situation in the Middle East will continue to dominate the attention of markets this week, especially after Israel’s massive preemptive strike this weekend on Hezbollah forces in southern Lebanon.  The strike is the biggest military action so far this year between Israeli Defense Forces and Hezbollah forces.  More than 100 Israeli fighter jets struck sites across the region, reportedly destroying a number of missile sites – estimated to be more than 40 sites – that were reportedly preparing to strike Tel Aviv and other urban centers in Israel. 

Yet, despite this significant uptick in fighting, negotiators are set to meet in Cairo this week, and the Qatari Prime Minister travels to Tehran for talks. Additionally, US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Charles Q. Brown, Jr., is traveling to Israel to ensure defense preparations against further Iranian or Iranian-affiliated attacks, emphasizing the US’ determination to discourage any attacks that could derail negotiations.

It seems some sort of cease-fire deal has been within reach for months now, but sources tell us this time, it is closer than ever.  We would note Iran has continued to hold off striking back at Israel following the assassination of a senior Hamas official who was visiting Tehran and the killing of a senior Hezbollah commander last month, actions Iranian officials swore to retaliate for. 

Meanwhile, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will travel to Beijing this week for meetings with senior Chinese diplomat Wang Yi.  The purpose of the meeting is to discuss ways to improve dialogue between Washington and Beijing, how to further incapacitate the fentanyl trade coming out of China, and surely discussions about China’s support for Russia’s war against Ukraine.  While Sullivan has had increasingly regular talks with Wang over the last two years, this is the first time he has visited Beijing for such meetings – and the first time a U.S. National Security Advisor has traveled to Beijing since 2016 when then-National Security Advisor Susan Rice went at the direction of President Barrack Obama.

This will be a big week in Mexico – the United States’ largest trading partner – as the country’s judiciary begins massive protests against a highly controversial “reform” effort by Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) to push through legislation requiring all judges be elected by popular vote instead of being appointed.  The worry is this will make the judiciary highly politicized and also allow drug cartels to have an even greater ability to control the legal system.  And it has foreign investors deeply worried about what it could do to commercial law in the country.  AMLO’s proposal has been endorsed by his successor, Claudia Sheinbaum, who is set to be sworn in as Mexico’s new president in October.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, markets are looking at US PCE and CPI prints this week – the last ones to come out before the Federal Reserve meets to discuss – and, as Fed Chair Jay Powell indicated in a speech in Jackson Hole Friday – begin lowering interest rates.  Additionally, the Conference Board releases the closely watched Consumer Confidence Index this week.

In Asia, it is a big week for economic reports.  Japan releases its August CPI figures, labor market numbers, and industrial production numbers.  China sets its 1-year MLF rate (along with a flood of Chinese corporate earnings), and Australia releases its August CPI.

Turning to Europe, CPI numbers will be out for the Eurozone, Germany, France, Spain, and Italy this week.  Germany and France also release consumer confidence reports, giving investors a deeper sense of whether the two economic engines of Europe are getting back on track or will continue sputtering.

Here is what else we are watching closely around the world this coming week:

Sunday, August 25, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Mexican judicial workers – including judges – will rally in Mexico City to protest sweeping government-sponsored judicial reforms.  The proposals, being pushed through by President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, have come under heavy criticism not only inside Mexico but from abroad.  Both the US Ambassador to Mexico, Ken Salazar, called the reforms a “major risk to democracy.”  The Canadian Ambassador to Mexico, Graham Clark, said, “My investors are concerned, they want stability, they want a judicial system that works if there are problems.”

·       In Argentina, unionized pilots flying for Aerolineas Argentinas will strike and stage demonstrations at Argentina's commercial airports through August 30. 

·       Today is Uruguay Independence Day, marking the day in 1828 when the country gained its independence from Portugal.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Day of Songun, a national holiday in North Korea.  The day celebrating the start of the military-first rule in the nation under the leadership of Kim Jong-Il in 1948.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in panel discussion at The Rimini Meeting 2024 "Se non siamo alla ricerca dell'essenziale, allora cosa cerchiamo?" in Rimini, Italy.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Shiite Arbaeen pilgrimage, which commemorates the martyrdom of Imam Hussein, will take place in Karbala, Iraq.  It is considered one of the world’s largest public gatherings.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs hosts the Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD) Ministerial Meeting.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, August 26, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh meets with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan in Washington, DC.  Singh will also chair a high-level roundtable with defense industry executives regarding ongoing and future defense collaborations.

·       The 10th Annual AmeriGEO Conference, hosted by Ecuador’s Secretariat for Risk Management and Military Geographic Institute, takes place in Quito, Ecuador.  The conference, which will be attended by senior government official from throughout the Hemisphere seeks to “brings together diverse communities and builds connections, fostering collaboration among national, regional, and international efforts in integrated Earth and social science research.’

·        

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence AUG/ Current Account JUL/ Foreign Direct Investment JUL/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada Wholesale Sales MoM Prel JUL

·       USA Durable Goods Orders MoM JUL/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index AUG

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 53rd Pacific Islands Forum Leaders meeting takes place in Tonga.  UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will speak.  The main topics are expected to be climate change and ongoing tensions between China and the US.

·       The US and Indonesia hold Garuda Shield, a military exercise in Indonesia.

·       Today is National Heroes Day in the Philippines, honoring all those who died for the independence of the country.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade JUL

·       Singapore Industrial Production YoY JUL

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi travels to the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant in Russia.   Grossi is traveling to inspect the plant following Russian drone attacks last week which damaged the facility.  Russian President Vladimir Putin has accused Ukraine of attacking the plant but evidence suggests it was actually Russian drones that hit the plant.

·       French President Emmanuel Macron will meet the leaders of the far-right National Rally party alongside the leader of the center-right Les Republicains party, Eric Ciotti, as part of ongoing government formation consultations. 

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris.

·       Today is the late Summer Bank Holiday in the UK.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence AUG

·       Hungary Gross Wage YoY JUN

·       Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls Q2

·       Spain PPI YoY JUL

·       Turkey Business Confidence AUG/ Capacity Utilization AUG

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate AUG/ Ifo Current Conditions AUG/ Ifo Expectations AUG

·       Poland Unemployment Rate JUL

·       Slovenia Business Confidence AUG

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani is expected to travel to Tehran, Iran for meeting with senior Iranian officials regarding the state of negotiations over Gaza as well as the looming threat of an attack by Iran on Israel.  Qatar and Egypt along with the US have acted as mediators in efforts to secure a ceasefire in Gaza to end the 10-month long war.  Talks are expected resume later this week between representatives of Hamas and Israel either in Cairo or in Qatar.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate YoY JUL

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply YoY JUL

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI JUN/ Manufacturing PMI JUL

·       Kuwait Private Bank Lending YoY JUL

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate YoY Q2

Tuesday, August 27, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will travel to Beijing.  He will meet with top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi to discuss a range of issue ranging from Taiwan to US-China military talks and fentanyl.  This is the first visit by a US National Security Advisor to China since 2016.

·       SpaceX will attempt the first ever private spacewalk.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI YoY AUG

·       Mexico Balance of Trade JUL

·       USA Redbook YoY AUG/24/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY JUN/ House Price Index JUN/ CB Consumer Confidence AUG/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index AUG/ Dallas Fed Services Index AUG/ NY Fed Treasury Purchases 22.5 to 30 yrs/ Money Supply JUL/ API Crude Oil Stock Change AUG/23

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) YoY JUL

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence AUG

·       Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment AUG

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade JUL

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez begins a multi-day visits Mauritania, Gambia and Senegal.

·       Today is Independence Day in Moldova, marking when the country gained its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q2

·       Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades AUG

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate AUG/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Spain Consumer Confidence JUL

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The US-Africa Nuclear Energy Summit takes place in Nairobi, Kenya.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate MoM AUG

Wednesday, August 28, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Syria).

·       The 2024 Summer Paralympics begin in Paris and run through September 8.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Chilean government authorities will attend the "Chile Summit India 2024" in New Delhi and Mumbai through August 30.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on payments at the Global Fintech Festival 2024, Mumbai, India.

·      USA MBA Mortgage Market Index AUG/23/ MBA Purchase Index AUG/23/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change AUG/23

·      Uruguay Unemployment Rate JUL

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Monthly CPI Indicator JUL/ Construction Work Done QoQ Q2

·       Philippines Budget Balance JUL

·       Malaysia PPI YoY JUL

·       Japan Coincident Index Final JUN/ Leading Economic Index Final JUN

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer visits Germany for meetings with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz his first visit to Germany since being elected Prime Minister.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence SEP

·       France Consumer Confidence AUG/ Unemployment Benefit Claims JUL/ Jobseekers Total JUL

·       Slovakia Business & Consumer Confidence AUG

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final JUL

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies & Households YoY JUL/ M3 Money Supply YoY JUL

·       Italy Industrial Sales YoY JUN

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index AUG

·       Slovenia Retail Sales YoY JUL

·       Greece Total Credit YoY JUL

·       Russia Unemployment Rate JUL/ Business Confidence AUG/ Corporate Profits JUN/ Industrial Production YoY JUL/ Real Wage Growth YoY JUN/ Retail Sales YoY JUL/ GDP YoY JUL

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Interest Rate Decision

·       Qatar GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply YoY JUL/ Private Bank Lending YoY JUL

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, August 29, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution to extend the mandate of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), followed by consultations on the 1718 Committee.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US and Argentina sign a memorandum of understanding for the export of critical minerals to the US.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to give "Introduction to the Federal Reserve and an Economic Outlook" presentation before a Georgia Tech Scheller College of Business Management of Financial Institutions class in Atlanta, Georgia.

·      Brazil IGP-M Inflation MoM AUG/ Bank Lending MoM JUL/ PPI YoY JUL/ Net Payrolls JUL

·      Canada Current Account Q2/ Average Weekly Earnings YoY JUN

·      USA GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est Q2/ Corporate Profits QoQ Prel Q2/ GDP Price Index QoQ 2nd Est Q2/ Goods Trade Balance Adv JUL/ Initial Jobless Claims AUG/24/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv JUL/ Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv JUL/ Core PCE Prices QoQ 2nd Est Q2/ PCE Prices QoQ 2nd Est Q2/ Real Consumer Spending QoQ 2nd Est Q2/ Pending Home Sales YoY JUL/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change AUG/23/ Fed Balance Sheet AUG/28

·      Chile Unemployment Rate JUL

·      Colombia Business Confidence JUL

·      Argentina Consumer Confidence AUG

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment AUG/24/ Stock Investment by Foreigners AUG/24

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence AUG

·       Australia Building Capital Expenditure QoQ Q2/ Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure QoQ Q2/ Private Capital Expenditure QoQ Q2

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade AUG/ Industrial Production YoY AUG/ Inflation Rate YoY AUG/ Retail Sales YoY AUG/ Tourist Arrivals YoY AUG

·       Singapore Export Prices YoY JUL/ Import Prices YoY JUL/ PPI YoY JUL

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU Foreign Affairs Ministers will hold an informal meeting in Brussels.

·       French President Emmanuel Macron visits Serbia for meetings with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic.  They will discuss ways to broaden economic ties but also Artificial Intelligence.  Serbia is chairing the Global Partnership on Artificial Intelligence – an initiative set up by Macron and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

·       Today is the deadline for nominations to be submitted for EU Commissioners.

·       Today is the anniversary of the Slovak National Uprising, marking the day in 1944 when the people of Slovakia rose up against Nazi rule.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane will participate on a panel entitled "Inflation – Challenges for Policymakers and Researchers" organized by Brandeis University/CEBRA at annual Central Bank Research Association meeting organized with the Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE and Deutsche Bundesbank in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Great Britain Car Production YoY JUL

·       European Union New Car Registrations YoY JUL

·       Spain Inflation Rate YoY Prel AUG/ Business Confidence AUG

·       Turkey Economic Confidence Index AUG/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves AUG/23

·       Germany Baden Wuerttemberg CPI YoY AUG/ Bavaria CPI YoY AUG/ Brandenburg CPI YoY AUG/ Hesse CPI YoY AUG/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI YoY AUG/ Saxony CPI YoY AUG/ Inflation Rate YoY Prel AUG

·       Poland GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q2

·       Euro Area Economic Sentiment AUG/ Consumer Confidence Final AUG/ Consumer Inflation Expectations AUG/ Industrial Sentiment AUG/ Selling Price Expectations AUG/ Services Sentiment AUG

·       Greece Unemployment Rate JUL

·       Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate YoY Prel AUG/ Wholesale Prices YoY JUL

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey will host Iraqi, Qatari and Emirati officials for a Development Road Summit in Istanbul.  The estimated $20 billion project aims connect Iraq’s Basra port on the Persian Gulf to Turkey and beyond.  The UAE and Qatar are potential investors in the project.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Balance of Trade JUL

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI YoY JUL

Friday, August 30, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer AUG/ GDP Growth Rate Annualized Q2/ GDP MoM JUN/ Budget Balance JUN

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP JUL/ Nominal Budget Balance JUL/ Unemployment Rate JUL

·       USA PCE Price Index YoY JUL/ Personal Income & Spending JUL/ Chicago PMI AUG/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Expectations Final AUG

·       Chile Copper Production YoY JUL/ Industrial Production YoY JUL/ Manufacturing Production YoY JUL/ Retail Sales YoY JUL

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate JUL

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade JUL

·       Mexico Fiscal Balance JUL

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Popular Consultation Day in East Timor.  It marks the day when the country held a referendum in 1999 to let the people of East Timor choose between greater autonomy in Indonesia or separation.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence AUG/ Building Permits MoM JUL

·       South Korea Industrial Production YoY JUL/ Retail Sales MoM JUL

·       Japan Unemployment Rate JUL/ Tokyo CPI AUG/ Retail Sales YoY JUL/ Industrial Production YoY JUL/ Consumer Confidence AUG/ Housing Starts YoY JUL/ Construction Orders YoY JUL

·       Philippines PPI YoY JUL

·       Australia Housing Credit MoM JUL/ Retail Sales MoM JUL/ Private Sector Credit YoY JUL

·       Singapore Bank Lending JUL

·       Thailand Industrial Production YoY JUL/ Current Account JUL/ Private Consumption & Investment JUL/ Retail Sales YoY JUN

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply YoY JUL

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales YoY JUL

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate YoY AUG/ PPI YoY JUL/ Balance of Trade JUL

·       India Government Budget Value JUL/ Foreign Exchange Reserves AUG/23/ Infrastructure Output YoY JUL/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Q2

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence AUG

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU Defense Ministers will hold an informal meeting in Brussels.

·       Members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization will conduct weeks-long military exercises in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to maintain regional stability amid threats emanating from Afghanistan. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a lecture at Ragnar Nurkse Lecture Series organized by Bank of Estonia in Tallinn, Estonia.

·       European Central Bank Board member Kerstin af Jochnick participates on a panel at the joint European Banking Authority & European Central Bank international conference on Supervisory Cooperation in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       France Private Non-Farm Payrolls QoQ Final Q2/ Inflation Rate YoY Prel AUG/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q2/ Household Consumption MoM JUL/ PPI YoY JUL

·       Germany Retail Sales YoY MAY/ Import Prices YoY JUL/ Unemployed Persons/ Change/ Rate AUG

·       Romania Unemployment Rate JUL

·       Hungary PPI YoY JUL

·       Spain Retail Sales YoY JUL/ Current Account JUN

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators AUG

·       Italy Unemployment Rate JUL/ Inflation Rate Prel AUG/ Business & Consumer Confidence AUG

·       Poland Inflation Rate YoY Prel AUG

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate YoY AUG

·       Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit JUL/ Mortgage Approvals & Lending JUL/ M4 Money Supply MoM JUL/ Net Lending to Individuals MoM JUL

·       Euro Area Inflation Rate Flash AUG/ Unemployment Rate JUL/ CPI Flash AUG

·       Greece PPI YoY JUL/ Retail Sales YoY JUN

·       Ireland Retail Sales YoY JUL

·       Serbia Balance of Trade JUL/ Industrial Production YoY JUL/ Retail Sales YoY JUL/ Unemployment Rate Q2

·       Ukraine Current Account JUL

·       Russia M2 Money Supply YoY JUL

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Turkey Victory Day, marking the day in 1922 when Turkish military forces defeated the Greeks at the Battle of Dumlupinar. Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·    A special session of the African Ministerial Conference on the Environment and the UN Convention to Combat Desertification will be held in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply YoY JUL/ Private Sector Credit YoY JUL/ Balance of Trade JUL/ Budget Balance JUL

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves AUG

·       Kenya Inflation Rate YoY AUG

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply YoY JUL

Saturday, August 31, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Trinidad and Tobago Independence Day, celebrating when the country gained its independence from Britain in 1962.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Niue, an island country in free association with New Zealand, holds a constitutional referendum which will change the head of government from a Premier to a Prime Minister, extend the term length of members of the assembly from three to four years, increase the size of the cabinet from four to six members, and make the Auditor-General of New Zealand as the country’s official auditor.

·       Today is Kyrgyzstan Independence Day, marking the day the country declared independence from the Soviet Union in 1992.

·       Today is Malaysia Independence Day, marking the day the country gained its independence from Britain in 1957.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China NBS Non- & Manufacturing PMI AUG/ NBS General PMI AUG

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 1, 2024

Global

·       Slovenia assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of September.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador gives an annual speech on the executive branch’s accomplishments, similar to a state of the nation address.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·    Indonesia hosts the 2nd Annual Indonesia-Africa Forum in Bali.  Indonesian President Joko Widodo and more than 30 African leaders will meet for three days to discuss how to deepen political and economic ties and build stronger supply chains and healthcare systems.

·       Azerbaijan holds parliamentary elections.

·       Today is Uzbekistan Independence Day, celebrating when the country was able to declare its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

·       Today is Constitution Day in Kazakhstan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade AUG

·       Australia CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM AUG

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Germany, state elections will be held in Saxony and Thuringia.

·       Czechia will hold regional elections and the election of one-third of the Senate.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.