The Global Week Ahead

President Trump to Make “Major Statement” on Ukraine, Japan Holds Major Elections, German Chancellor Merz Travels to London To Sign the UK-Germany Strategic Partnership Treaty, and the G20 Finance Ministers Meet in South Africa

July 13 - 20, 2025

It will be another hectic week on the geopolitical stage as President Trump has promised to make a “major statement” on Ukraine on Monday.  The announcement, which is expected to be a substantial commitment of new military aid to Ukraine, comes as the President meets with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Washington.  If Trump does, in fact, announce a sizeable commitment of weapons to Kyiv, it will be a major policy shift for the President and suggest a significant new turn in the war, not to mention Trump’s growing irritation with Russian President Vladimir Putin for refusing to engage in peace negotiations. 

All this comes as President Trump continues to press forward with aggressive tariff threats, announcing on Friday that he is putting new tariffs on the European Union, Mexico, and Canada.   Both Mexico and Canada are going to be hit with new 30 percent tariffs for fentanyl smuggling into the US, according to a letter Trump posted on Truth Social, his media platform.   The EU will also face new 30 percent tariffs, according to Trump’s letter, for failing to deal in good faith with the US in ongoing trade negotiations.

Also, this week, markets will be watching Japan’s Upper House elections to understand the further stability of  Prime Minister Shigeru Ishida’s ruling government and what sort of flexibility the Bank of Japan has on raising interest rates.  Japan’s opposition parties are advocating for tax cuts and looser monetary policy, and if they gain substantially in Sunday’s elections, the central bank will feel significant pressure not to raise rates.

Trump will host Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos next Sunday for trade talks while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent travels to Japan to attend the World Expo in Osaka.  While no formal bilateral meetings between Bessent and Japanese negotiators have been announced, it is expected that he will sit down with them while there to try and unlock stalled trade talks.

In Europe this week, German Chancellor Fredrich Merz makes his first visit to London since being elected in May. While there, he will sign a new UK-Germany Strategic Partnership Treaty designed to significantly ramp up mutual defense and economic cooperation, all part of greater Europe’s effort rapidly build up military capabilities in the face of Russia’s ongoing aggression in Ukraine and Russian President Putin’s continuous demands for Eastern European countries to leave NATO.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, G20 finance and central bank governors meet in South Africa.  No significant announcements or outcomes are expected from those meetings at this time.

In terms of major economic reports this week, the highly anticipated US June CPI report is out on Tuesday, telling markets if there is any new inflationary movement as a result of the Trump tariffs.  The PPI report will be out on Wednesday, and the preliminary University of Michigan consumer survey results for July will be released on Friday. Also out this week are the Fed’s Beige Book on Wednesday, along with industrial production numbers.  And the June retail sales come out on Thursday.

While we normally do not cover earnings, we note that many of the largest US banks will be releasing earnings this week (JP Morgan, Bank of New York Mellon, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, BlackRock, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs).  Markets will be looking to see how strong their earnings are as another indicator of overall US economic strength.

Turning to Asia, China’s Q2 GDP and June retail activity data are out on Tuesday. Japan releases the Bank of Japan’s Opinion Survey on the General Public's Views and Behavior for June on Monday, the June customs trade data on Thursday, and the CPI figures on Friday.

In Europe this week, the UK will release CPI data on Wednesday and labor market reports on Thursday.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, July 13, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the first anniversary of President Trump being shot at a rally in Pennsylvania.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese continues a six-day visit to China (which began on Saturday).  Albanese has brought a large delegation of Australian businessmen in the hope of signing a number of trade deals.

·       Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar travels to China for the first time in five years for meetings with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.  Jainshankar will then travel on to Tianjin to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s Council of Foreign Ministers July 14-15.  The Chinese and Indian Foreign Ministers are expected to discuss Indian-Pakistan tensions, rare earth supplies to India, the Dalai Lama’s succession, and the resumption of direct flights between the two countries.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visits Pyongyang, South Korea.

·       Australia will host the Exercise Talisman Sabre 2025 military drills with 18 other participating nations, including the United States and Japan, through August 4.

·       Japan holds the Chinreisha Festival (Spirit-Pacifying Shrine) at the Yasukuni Shrine dedicated to all of those who died in wars or incidents since 1853 and who cannot be enshrined in the Main sanctuary, in other words, enemies of Imperial Japan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       France celebrates Bastille Day.

·       Today is Sovereignty Day in Montenegro, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, July 14, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote related to the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) and the UN Mission to Support the Hudaydah Agreement (UNMHA). Also, in the morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the  
United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP).  

·       The UN’s  High-level Political Forum on Sustainable Development (HLPF) will open its session in the General Assembly Hall at the UN Headquarters in New York. The Forum will continue until 23 July. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will be in Washington through July 15 for meetings with President Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.  President Trump, in an interview last week, said he would “have a major statement to make on Russia” today.  It is believed he will formally announce new military aid programs for Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (May)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (May)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Chinese-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s (SCO) Council of Foreign Ministers meets in Tianjin through July 15.  They are expected to discuss regional trade and security matters.  There are nine members of the SCO: the Republic of India, the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Republic of Kazakhstan, the People's Republic of China, the Kyrgyz Republic, the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, the Russian Federation, the Republic of Tajikistan, and the Republic of Uzbekistan.

·       The China-EU Sixth High-Level Environment and Climate Dialogue begins in Beijing.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (June)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (June)

·       Japan Machinery Orders (May)/ Capacity Utilization (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Tertiary Industry Index (May)

·       Singapore GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ New Yuan Loans (June)/ M2 Money Supply (June)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (June)/ Total Social Financing (June)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (May)

·       India WPI Food/ Fuel/ Inflation/ Manufacturing Index (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Brussels.  EU trade ministers are expected to discuss the state of trade negotiations with the US, EU-China trade relations, and other major issues.

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels.  The agenda includes an overview of the current marketplace and an EU-wide initiative to diversify protein sources for food and feed.

·       The first-ever EU-Central America Association Council meets in Brussels.  The meeting brings together leaders from the EU and six Central American countries - Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama. 

·       France celebrates Bastille Day.  Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto is the guest of honor, per an invitation from French President Emmanuel Macron. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in an exchange of views at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Hungary Construction Output (May)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (June)

·       Romania Current Account (May)

·       Poland Balance of Trade (May)/ Current Account (May)

·       Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech

·       Turkey Auto Production & Sales (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana PPI (June)

Tuesday, July 15, 2025

Global

·       OPEC releases its monthly report. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will speak at the Pennsylvania Energy and Innovation Summit in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

·       The Federal Reserve holds its Unleashing a Financially Inclusive Future Conference in Washington, D.C.

·       The Senate Foreign Relations Committee will hold a confirmation hearing for former National Security Advisor Mike Walz to serve as US Ambassador to the United Nations.

·       The Aspen Security Forum begins in Aspen, Colorado.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will give remarks at the Federal Reserve Board's Second Annual Financial Inclusion Conference (via pre-recorded video).

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr will give a speech entitled “Expanding Financial Inclusion” at the Federal Reserve Board's Second Annual Financial Inclusion Conference, Washington, D.C.

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan gives opening remarks before an event of the World Affairs Council of San Antonio.

·       Canada Housing Starts (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ CPI Median (June)/ Manufacturing Sales (May)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (May)

·       USA Inflation Rate (June)/ CPI (June)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (July)/ Redbook (July/12)/ Fed Bowman Speech/ NOPA Crush Report/API Crude Oil Stock Change (July/11)

·       Colombia Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (May)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index & Change (July)

·       China House Price Index (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (June)/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q2/ Unemployment Rate (June)

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production (June)/ GDP (June)

·       India Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (July/15)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Services PMI (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas will chair the meeting of EU Foreign Ministers.  The primary agenda items will be Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and will include a video discussion with Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Minister Andrii Sybiha.  The ministers will also discuss the situation in Georgia, the Middle East (Gaza, Israel, and Iran), and the New Pact for the Mediterranean.

·       UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves gives annual Mansion House speech in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives an introductory statement at Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the Annual Financial and Professional Services Dinner at Mansion House in London.

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (June)/ BoE Gov Bailey Speech

·       Romania Industrial Production (May)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (May)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (June)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (June)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (June)

·       Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (July)/ Industrial Production (May)/ ECB Buch Speech

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (July)/ ZEW Current Conditions (July)

·       Serbia Building Permits (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (June)

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (June)/ Wholesale Prices (June)

·       Oman Inflation Rate (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (May)/ Mining Production (May)

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)/ M3 Money Supply (June)

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

Wednesday, July 16, 2025

Global

·       UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres is convening an informal meeting on Cyprus at UN Headquarters. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The inauguration of Jennifer Geerlings-Simons as the new President of Suriname is held in Paramiribo.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr will give a speech on financial regulation at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives a keynote before the New York Association for Business Economics (NYABE) Distinguished Speaker Series.

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on "Community Development" before the Cuyahoga County Community College Corporate College 20th Anniversary Celebration Business Breakfast.

·       The Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book/ USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (July/11)/ MBA Purchase Index (July/11)/ PPI (June)/Capacity Utilization (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)/ EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (July/11)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The International Supply Chain Expo in Beijing begins and runs through Saturday. Nvidia will take part for the first time, according to state media reports.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Export Prices (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (July)

·       Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit Facility Rate (July)/ Lending Facility Rate (July)

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Commission will present a sweeping new EU budget reform package. This swill include proposals for the 2028-2035 EU multiannual financial framework that will include closer alignment on strategic priorities such as rearmament, industrial competition, and tech policy.

·       There will be informal meetings of EU Research Ministers and EU Ministers for Internal Markets and Industry in Brussels through July 18.

·       The Foreign Ministers of Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine – the so-called “Lublin Triangle” – will meet in Lublin, Lithuania.

·       German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil and French counterpart Eric Lombard meet and hold a press conference in Berlin, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (June)/ Retail Price Index (June)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (May)

·       Italy Inflation Rate (June)/ Balance of Trade (May)

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (May)

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (May)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (June)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (June)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (May)

·       Russia PPI (June)

·       Turkey Budget Balance (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Zambia will hold an International Investment Conference in Lusaka through July 18.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Retail Sales (May)

Thursday, July 17, 2025

Global

·       G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors will begin two days of meetings in Zimbali, South Africa through July 18.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the 1701 report (ending hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler will give a speech entitled “A view of the Housing Market and U.S. Economic Outlook” at the Housing Partnership Network Symposium in Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech at the National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute (virtually).

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Money Marketeers Event in New York.

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (July)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (May)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (July/12)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (July)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (July/05)/ Import Prices (June)/ Export Prices (June)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (July)/ Retail Sales (June)/ / NAHB Housing Market Index (July)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (July/11)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/17)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (May)/ Foreign Bond Investment (May)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (May)/ Fed Balance Sheet (July/16)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Constitution Day in South Korea, which is not a national holiday anymore as of 2008.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Food Inflation (June)

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Foreign Bond Investment (July/12)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (July/12)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (July)/ Employment Change (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Participation Rate (June)

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (June)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Friedrich Merz travels to London for his first official meeting since taking office in May.  He will meet with Prime Minister Keir Starmer and will also sign the UK–Germany Strategic Partnership Treaty that will include significant mutual defense and economic cooperation.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' meeting in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (June)

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (May)/ Employment Change (May)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (June)/ Claimant Count Change (June)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (June)

·       Euro Area CPI Final (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (May)

·       Serbia Current Account (May)

·       Belarus GDP (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (July)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (May)

Friday, July 18, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on Colombia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Constitution Day in Uruguay, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA Housing Starts (June)/ Building Permits (June)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (July)/ Michigan Current Conditions (July)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (July)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (July/18)

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (May)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Inflation Rate (June)/ BoJ JGB Purchases

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (June)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       India Bank Loan Growth (July/04)/ Deposit Growth (July/04)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/11)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Friedrich Merz meets Romanian President Nicuşor Dan in Berlin, Germany.

·       EU Immigration Ministers will gather in Berlin to discuss asylum rules.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany PPI (June)

·       Euro Area Current Account (May)/ Construction Output (May)

·       Italy Construction Output (May)/ Current Account (May)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (May)

·       Turkey Business Confidence Q3/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/11)

·       Slovakia Current Account (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, July 19, 2025 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent travels to Japan to attend the World Expo in Osaka.  It is unclear at this point whether Bessent will hold bilateral meetings on trade with Japanese officials while there.

·       Today is Liberation Day in Nicaragua, a national holiday celebrating the beginning of the hostilities pushing the Somoza family from power.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan holds its upper house of parliament elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, July 20, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos travels to Washington for meetings with President Trump through July 22.

·       Today is Independence Day in Colombia, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan holds its upper house of parliament elections.  124 of the 248 members are up for election in the National Diet where they serve six-year terms.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (July)

·       Japan Upper House Election

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

The BRICS Leaders’ Summit Is Held in Brazil, The Quad Foreign Ministers Meet in Washington, China’s Foreign Minister Travels to the EU, and the ECB Holds the European Central Bank Forum

June 29 - July 6, 2025

This coming Sunday, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) hosts the 17th BRICS Leaders’ Summit in Rio de Janeiro.   The meeting will comprise most of the leadership of original member states – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – plus the leaders from five new members: Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.  Nine other countries have been designated “partner countries,” and their leaders are likely to attend.  Lula has set the theme of the Summit as “Strengthening Global South Cooperation for More Inclusive Sustainable Governance,” and he is expected to significantly address multiple challenges to Western political and economic dominance, including the dominance of the US dollar.

However, the likely outcomes of the Summit were cut down this past week when both Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin announced they were not attending. Xi said he had a “scheduling conflict,” and Putin is worried he could get arrested for war crimes he’s ordered in Ukraine.  Not having these two at the Summit has already taken considerable energy out of the event.

Meanwhile, in Washington, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosts the foreign ministers of Australia, India, and Japan for a meeting of the QUAD (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue).  The meeting could prove to be quite revealing about the future of relations between the US and the other QUAD members.  It comes on the heels of the US canceling a meeting this coming week with the Japanese defense and foreign counterparts after senior US defense officials, led by Defense Undersecretary Elbridge Colby, demanded Japan massively boost its defense spending, much more than had been previously requested. 

Colby also announced a review of the enormous joint project with Australia to build nuclear-powered submarines, a move which has angered Australian leadership.

Also in Washington this week, Congress continues to battle over President Trump’s signature legislation, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.  As of this writing, the US Senate is expected to vote late Sunday or early Monday morning on the bill.  The House is looking to vote on what the Senate sends them, either late Tuesday or Wednesday, meeting President Trump’s July 4th deadline.

We would also note that Canada celebrates Canada Day on Monday, and the US celebrates Independence Day on Friday.  A wonderful week to celebrate independence and liberty!

Looking at the global financial markets this week, the big event markets are looking at is the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Forum on Central Banking 2025 being held in Portugal.  We think of it as the European version of the annual Jackson Hole event the Fed hosts in August. The ECB Forum will have a lot of interesting speeches and panels. Fed Chair Jay Powell will be one of the participants and speakers.

Also this week, the ECB will be releasing the minutes from their last interest rate meeting this week, too.  Staying in Europe, the major economic releases there this week include the Eurozone’s, Germany’s and Italy’s CPI prints are out this week.  Germany also releases factor orders this week.

In Asia, China releases its latest PMI report as well as the Caixin indicators.  Japan industrial production for May is out this week, along with the Bank of Japan’s Q2 Tankan Survey. 

Bringing it back to the US, the June jobs report is out Thursday after the JOLTS report is released Tuesday and the ADP report on Wednesday.   Also out this week is the June ISM indices on Tuesday and international trade balance and factory orders for May on Thursday.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, June 29, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Chile’s ruling left-wing voters head to the polls to select their candidate for president for the upcoming November elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Unemployment Rate Q1/M3 Money Supply (May)/Private Lending (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Seychelles Independence Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 30, 2025

Global

·       The UN 4th International Conference on Financing for Development begins in Sevilla, Spain and runs through July 3.

·       The BRICS 34d Sherpas Meeting takes in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil through July 4 in advance of the upcoming BRICS Leaders Meeting which begins on Sunday, July 6.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote related to the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) and also, to the Democratic Republic of the Congo sanctions. Also in the morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East (regarding the Golan Heights).

·       The World Trade Organization Trade and Environment Week conference begins in Geneva, Switzerland.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Thailand will have a trade team in Washington to negotiate a trade deal with the US.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy before an MNI Livestreamed Connect Video Conference.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Aspen Ideas Festival 2025.

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (May)/ Nominal Budget Balance (May)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Chile Copper Production (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Manufacturing Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

·       USA Chicago PMI (June)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (June)/ Quarterly Grain Stocks - Corn/ Soy/ Wheat (June)/

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (May)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (April)

·       Costa Rica Current Account Q1

·       Mexico Fiscal Balance (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi begin a visit to Europe where he will hold bilateral meetings in Brussels with EU officials and take part in the 13th round of China-EU High-Level Strategic Dialogue, then Germany, and finally in France.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)

·       Japan Industrial Production (May)/ Housing Starts (May)/ Construction Orders (May)

·       Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (June)/ Housing Credit (May)/ Private Sector Credit (May)/ Totality Dwelling Prices (June)

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (June)

·       China NBS General/ Non-Manufacturing/ Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (May)/ Current Account (May)/ Private Consumption & Investment (May)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (May)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (June)/ Unemployment Rate Q4

·       India Industrial Production (May)/ Manufacturing Production (May)/Government Budget Value (May)/ Current Account Q1/ External Debt Q1

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visits Kyrgyzstan for bilateral meetings.

·       The 15th City Week 2025 conference begins in London and runs through July 2.  The event is organized in partnership with the UK Government, the City of London Corporation, TheCity UK, UK Finance and leading City institutions.

·       The Wimbledon tennis tournament begins in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank hosts the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking 2025 in Sintra, Portugal.  There are multiple panels and speeches scheduled for the conference which runs through Wednesday.

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the introductory speech at the opening reception of ECB Forum on Central Banking 2025 "Adapting to change: macroeconomic shifts and policy responses" in Sintra, Portugal.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks at a conference organized by Instituto Atlántico de Gobierno (IADG) in Madrid, Spain.

·       Germany Retail Sales (May)/ Import Prices (May)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (June)/ Bavaria CPI (June)/ Brandenburg CPI (June)/ Hesse CPI (June)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (June)/ Saxony CPI (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)

·       Great Britain Current Account Q1/ Business Investment Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ BoE Consumer Credit (May)/ Mortgage Approvals & Lending (May)/ M4 Money Supply (May)/ Net Lending to Individuals (May)

·       Hungary PPI (May)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (June)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)/ Participation Rate (May)

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies & Households (May)/ M3 Money Supply (May)/ ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)/ ECB Forum on Central Banking/ ECB Forum on Central Banking

·       Poland Inflation Rate (June)

·       Spain Current Account (April)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (June)

·       Greece PPI (May)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Total Credit (May)

·       Italy Inflation Rate (June)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (May)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Lebanese Parliament commences a new legislative session.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (May)/ Manufacturing PMI (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       In Abuja, Nigeria the 24th annual NOG Sub Saharan Energy Sector Conference takes place through July 3.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (May)/ Private Sector Credit (May)/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Budget Balance (May)

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (May)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (June)

Tuesday, July 1, 2025

Global

·       Pakistan takes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of July.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosts the Quad Foreign Ministers in Washington.  The foreign ministers of Australia, India, and Japan will discuss mutual security issues.

·       Today is Canada Day, a national holiday.  Markets are closed.

·       In New York City, Democratic Mayoral candidate is expected to be declared the final winner of the Democratic mayoral primary.

·       Today is “Ketikoti” – Emancipation Day – in Suriname celebrating when slaver was abolished.

·       Today is Territory Day in the British Virgin Islands, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell participates on a policy panel at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking 2025 in Sintra, Portugal.

·       Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)/ Business Confidence (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (May)

·       USA Redbook (June/28)/S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (June)/ JOLTs Job Openings (May)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (June)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (June)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (June)/ Construction Spending (May)/ JOLTs Job Quits (May)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index/ Dallas Fed Services Index (June)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (June/27)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (June)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (June)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (May)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (June)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnam will cut the number of provinces and cities to 34 from 63, in the country's biggest reform in nearly four decades. The government is aiming to increase efficiency, cut costs and reduce the number of civil servants across government bodies as it seeks to streamline the state apparatus and boost growth.

·       Today in China is Founding Day of the Chinese Communist Party.

·       Today is Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day, the anniversary marking when the UK handed the island back to China.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence Q2/ NZIER Capacity Utilization Q2/ Building Permits (May)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (July)

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI/ Commodity Prices (June)

·       Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q2/ Tankan Large All Industry Capex Q2/ Tankan Large Manufacturing/ Non-Manufacturing/ Small Outlook and Index Q2/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI/ Consumer Confidence (June)

·       South Korea Exports/ Imports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ Tourist Arrivals (May)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Business Confidence Q2

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Singapore URA Property Index Q2/ Bank Lending (May)

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (June)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (June)/ Wholesale Prices (June)

·       Sri Lanka Current Account Q1

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The British Parliament is expected to hold a highly contentious vote on welfare reform.

·       Denmark takes up the EU presidency for the next six months.

·       In Russia, a country-wide increase of energy, gas, water and heating supply prices for households.

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen participates in a Strategic Dialogue with the World Economic Forum and global business leaders in Brussels.

·       German Chancellor Friedrich Merz receives Luxembourg's Prime Minister Luc Frieden with military honors followed by a press conference

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey begins a the new 3-year chair of the Financial Stability Board.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Payments Victoria Cleland gives a keynote address at City Week 2025.

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Green Gilt 2053

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (May)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (May)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing (June)

·       Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (June)/ New Car Sales (June)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Germany Unemployed Persons (June)/ Unemployment Change (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ CPI Flash (June)/ ECB Forum on Central Banking

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Ukraine Current Account (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Burundi, a national holiday.

·       Today is Ghana Republic Day, a national holiday.

·       Today is Sir Seretse Khama Day in Botswana, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (June)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (June)

Wednesday, July 2, 2025

Global

·       The OECD Green Growth and Development Forum begins in Paris. The two-day event will assess how forests and agriculture can help meet climate targets.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The  66th Ordinary Meeting of the Common Market Council and Summit of Presidents of Mercosur and Associated States begins in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendara Modi begins visits to Trinidad and Tobago, Argentina, and Brazil through July 8.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (June)/ Industrial Production (May)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (June/27)/ MBA Purchase Index (June/27)/ Challenger Job Cuts (June)/ ADP Employment Change (June)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (June/27)/ Total Vehicle Sales (June)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Ai Group Industry/ Construction/ Manufacturing Index (June)/ Building Permits (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Private House Approvals (May)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (June)

·       Philippines PPI (May)

·       Thailand Business Confidence (June)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (May)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Space Forum begins in Brussels and runs through July 3.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner gives the keynote speech at the Frankfurt Banking Summit 2025 in Frankfurt, Germany

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Financial Market Infrastructure Sasha Mills vives. Keynote speech at City Week 2025 on “The Bank of England’s Approach to Innovation in Digital Assets and Payments.”

·       Romania PPI (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

·       France Budget Balance (May)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (June)/ Tourist Arrivals (May)

·       Italy Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Euro Area Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Greece Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Great Britain Treasury Gilt 2028

·       Ireland Unemployment Rate (June)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (July)

·       Russia Unemployment Rate (May)/ Corporate Profits (April)/ Real Wage Growth (April)/ Retail Sales (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Expectations Q2

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

Thursday, July 3, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (April)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

·       USA Unemployment Rate (June)/ Average Hourly Earnings (June)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Initial Jobless Claims (June/28)/ Participation Rate (June)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (June)/ ISM Services PMI (June)/ ISM Services Business Activity/ Employment/ New Orders/ Prices (June)

·       Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Japan, The upper house election campaign in Japan will officially begin, with voters set to cast their ballots on July 20. Of the chamber's 248 seats, 125 will be up for grabs. As Prime Minister Shigeru Ishida’s Liberal Democratic Party and its junior coalition partner Komeito could not secure a majority in the lower house election last year, this election could have a major impact on the operations of the government..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Jajimie Takata will give a speech to local business leaders in Mie, Japan.

·       Australia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (June)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (June/28)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (June/28)/ Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMI (June)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (June)

·       China Caixin Composite & Services PMI (June)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (June)

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Belarus (which really isn’t independent..).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank publishes accounts of its last monetary policy meeting.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (June)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (June)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (June)/ PPI (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/27)

·       Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (June)

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (June)/ New Car Registrations (June)

·       France HCOB Composite & Services PMI (June)/ New Car Registrations (June)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (June)/ New Car Registrations (June)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (June)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (June)

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (June)

·       Jordan PPI (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (June)

·       Kenya GDP Growth Rate Q1

Friday, July 4, 2025

Global

·       The BRICS 3rd Meeting of Deputy Finance Ministers and Central Bank Deputies takes place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

·       The BRICS Business Forum takes place in Brasilia, Brazil through July 5.

·       The UN is closed as part of the 4th of July celebration in the US.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in the United States, a national holiday, and financial markets are closed.

· In Cuba, the Communist Party holds a plenary session to address the island's ongoing economic crisis.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil PPI (May)/ Balance of Trade (June)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (June)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (June)

·       Colombia Exports (May)/ PPI (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Republic Day in the Philippines, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)/ Current Account (May)

·       Japan Household Spending (May)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (June)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (May)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (June/20)/ Deposit Growth (June/20)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/27)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

The EU–Moldova Summit will be held in Chișinău, Moldova.  European Council president António Costa and Ursula von der Leyen, his counterpart at the European Commission, will meet Maia Sandu, the Moldovan president. It is expected they will discuss the country’s future in the EU and its sovereignty amid Russia’s invasion of neighboring Ukraine.

·       European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde will meet with German Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Berlin, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives a speech at the International Monetary Fund OEDNE/World Bank Group EDS19 Constituency Meeting in Luxembourg.

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Alan Taylor gives s public lecture at the London School of Economics on the natural rate of interest rates.

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

·       Germany Factory Orders (May)/ HCOB Construction PMI (June)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (May)

·       France Industrial Production (May)/ HCOB Construction PMI (June)

·       Spain Industrial Production (May)/ Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (June)/ / PPI (May)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (June)/ Retail Sales (May)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (June)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (June)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (May)

·       Serbia PPI (June)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/     Balance of Trade Prel (June)

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Rwanda Liberation Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

Saturday, July 5, 2025

Global

·       The 1st BRICS Finance Minister and Central Bank Governors Meeting will take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Venezuela (which is not independent or free…).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Africa-Spain Cooperation Summit begins in Madrid.

·       Today is Constitution Day in Armenia, a national holiday.

·       The 112th Tour de France cycling race begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Algeria's Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, July 6, 2025

Global

The 15th  BRICS Leaders’ Summit begins in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil and runs through July 7.  Eleven members are expected to be represented.  However, neither Chinese President Xi Jinping nor Russian President Vladimir Putin are going to attend.

The OPEC+ monthly meeting will be held (virtually)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The 49th CARICOM (Caribbean Community) Heads of Government Meeting begins in Montego Bay, Jamaica and runs through July 8.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Dalai Lama is expected to reveal his succession plan via a video announcement.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (June)/ Foreign Direct Investment (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Tourist Arrivals (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is National Day in Comoros, a national holiday.

·       Today is Independence Day in Malawi, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

June 22 - 29, 2025

The US Attacked Iran – Now What?, The NATO Summit Convenes, Followed by the European Council, The Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s Defense Ministers Meet, and Fed Chair Powell Testifies Before Congress

As we write this, the world is waking up to learn that President Donald Trump ordered the attack on three Iranian nuclear sites – Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan – and, reportedly, a number of other strategic Iranian sites.   According to Trump Administration officials, the attacks “obliterated” the targets, but US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Daniel Caine said it was “way too early” to comment on whether Iran retained nuclear capabilities.  Damage assessments are being conducted by the US and Isreal, and we are likely to learn a lot more of the effectiveness of the attacks in the coming days. 

Additionally, as Israeli Defense Force (IDF) sources have said, “it is too early to tell” if Iran moved any fissile materials from Fordow before the strike.  What we are watching for now are three things:

1. What will Iran do to retaliate against the US?  Will they attack US forces stationed in the region (there are close to 50,000 US troops stationed at a number of bases in the Middle East).

2. Will Iran move to shut down the Strait of Hormuz (as Iran’s Parliament voted to do this morning), paralyzing energy shipping and further raising tensions in the region with Gulf State nations.  Only the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, can make that decision, which ultimately would severely damage Iran’s already brittle economy.

3. Will Iran dare to activate suspected sleeper cells in the US and elsewhere to attack?  Do they even have such cells in the US?

As all this takes place, the 2025 NATO Summit begins on Tuesday in the Netherlands, bringing together the leaders of all the NATO members, including President Trump.  Other non-NATO heads of state have been invited to attend, including the Prime Ministers of Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and Ukraine, as well as the Presidents of South Korea, the European Council, and the European Commission. 

There are two things’ markets should watch at the Summit:  Will Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba and new South Korean President Lee get a chance to talk with Trump on the sidelines to secure trade agreements (something they had hoped to do at the G7 but did not happen as Trump left the summit early to return to Washington to deal with Iran).  And second, will NATO members collectively agree to an increase in defense spending targets from 2% of GDP to 3.5% for defense spending, with an additional 1.5% for infrastructure spending, bringing the level to 5% of GDP?  And by what timeline – 2030 or 2035?

European leaders will then roll into a European Council meeting on Thursday, where the Middle East will again dominate the agenda, as will defense spending, and trying to figure out a trade agreement with the US.

Elsewhere in the world this week, the defense ministers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) will be meeting in China. The SCO is composed of Belarus, China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, and again, the situation in Iran will dominate the agenda.  But it is expected that the SCO may touch on ongoing border tensions between India and China, ongoing tensions between Pakistan and India, and Ukraine. 

In Washington this week, the two big events will be the US Senate’s continued efforts to hammer out a compromise among Senate Republicans on President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act.  Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-ND) has said he wants to bring it to a vote this week but we believe it likely to slip into next week as Congress is going to be distracted by President Trump’s Iran action along with real disagreements on the substance of the bill, mostly around state and local taxes (SALT) exemptions and Section 899 which would give the US Treasury the power to place tough taxes on foreign corporations from countries that place heavy taxes on US corporations.

The second event markets are going to be watching closely is Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell’s testimony Tuesday before the House Financial Services Committee and Wednesday before the Senate Banking Committee on the state of the economy.  With all that is going on geopolitically and with President Trump’s tariffs, these should be lively hearings (to say the least).

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, beyond Powell’s testimony, markets will be listening closely to European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s comments Monday before the EU Parliament and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s testimony before the House of Lords. 

In the US, the May PCE report is released this week, as well as Q1 GDP numbers. And the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index is out on Tuesday.

In Asia, Japan’s June CPI is released on Friday, as well as the Bank of Japan’s minutes from their last meeting on Wednesday.  China’s May Industrial profits are out on Friday, too.

In Europe,  the Eurozone’s June economic sentiment reports are out on Friday, Germany’s Ifo Survey on Tuesday, and France and Spain’s June CPI on Friday.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, June 22, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Speaker of the House Michael Johnson (R-LA) is scheduled to visit Israel.  He will address the Israeli Knesset (NOTE: Johnson’s trip may be canceled because of the outbreak of fighting between Israel and Iran.)

·       Today is the tentative date Telsa will launch their new Robotaxis in Austin, Texas.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in a monetary policy insights panel before the Western Economic Association International 100th Annual Conference.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly elections take place.  There are 127 seats representing the 14 million residents of Tokyo open for election.

·       Today is the 60th anniversary of Japan and South Korea establishing diplomatic ties.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The US-Africa Business Summit begins in Luanda, Angola.  More than 1,500 attendees including a number of African government leaders, are expected to attend the three-day event.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 23, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open briefing on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) followed by consultations..

·       The 7th Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting begins in Milan, Italy.  The Meeting is also the 27th meeting of the Committee for Environmental Protection — running until July 3.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives opening remarks at the 2025 International Journal of Central Banking Conference, Prague 1, Czech Republic.

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair  Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech on monetary policy and banking at the 2025 International Journal of Central Banking Conference, Prague 1, Czech Republic.

·       The Federal Reserve Bank of New York holds a virtual discussion with business and community leaders on "the effects that labor market conditions, inflation, and interest rates have on them.”  The event is being hosted by SUNY Schenectady Community College.  New York Fed President John Williams will speak along with Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler.

·       Monday, June 24, 12:10 p.m. Central Time – Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Milwaukee Business Journal Mid-Year Outlook 2025.

·       USA S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash/ Existing Home Sales (May)

·       Mexico Economic Activity (April)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Argentina GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Paraguay PPI (May)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (May)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India is expected to re-open its airspace to commercial Pakistani planes following the recent fighting between the two countries.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (June)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (June)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Final Q1/ Inflation Rate (May)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (May)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (June)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  The agenda includes an update and discussion of the situation in Ukraine, China and European security issues, the situation in the Middle East and Libya, and the situation in Georgia.

·       The EU-Canada Summit takes in Brussels.  Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will meet with EU President Ursala von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa.  The topics will cover the current geopolitical situation, economy and trade, and a number of sectorial issues they can improve on cooperation.

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets through June 24. the Council will seek to reach a general approach on a regulation on a forest monitoring framework for resilient European forests. The proposal aims to establish a high-quality forest monitoring system to track progress on achieving EU targets and policy objectives concerning forests.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Tourism Ministers through June 24 in Warsaw, Poland.

·       The Net Zero Delivery Summit, hosted by the City of London Corporation, part of London Climate Action Week, takes place in London. Speakers include Lord Mayor of the City of London Alastair King.

·       Today is Victory Day in Estonia, a national holiday celebrating when the country sought independence following the end of World War I.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives  an introductory statement at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

·       France HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (June)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (June)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (June)/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (May)/ Employment Growth (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ PPI (May)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (April)

·       Turkey Tourist Arrivals (May)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (June)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (May)

·       Israel Current Account Q1/ M1 Money Supply (May)/ Manufacturing PMI (April & May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, June 24, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya this will be followed by consultations. In the afternoon there will be a briefing on non-proliferation. 

·       The Internet Governance Forum Summit takes place in Oslo, Norway.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the deadline for Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to present a process for adding additional tariffs on auto parts.

·       The New York City Democratic Mayoral Primary will be held.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on monetary policy before the Barclays-CEPR Monetary Policy Forum 2025.

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell testifies before the House Financial Services Committee.

·       The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City holds a virtual discussion on "the current state of the agricultural economy and future prospects, part of its "Fed Listens" series.  Speakers will include Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr and Jeff Schmid, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

·       Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins speaks before the “State of the Nation's Housing 2025" event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ FGV Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (June)

·       Canada Inflation Rate (May)/ CPI Median (May)/ Manufacturing Sales (May)

·       USA Current Account Q1/ Redbook (June/21)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (April)/ House Price Index (April)/ CB Consumer Confidence (June)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index/ Money Supply (May)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (June/20)

·       Chile PPI (May)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In China, the 14th National People’s Congress’ Standing Committee (NPCSC) - China’s senior legislative body -  convenes for its 16th session, running until Friday.  The committee will review draft revisions to the Public Security Administrative Penalty Law, the Law against Unfair Competition, the Maritime Law, the Fisheries Law, and the Civil Aviation Law, as well as draft laws on responding to public health emergencies, and promoting publicity and education on the rule of law.

·       The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) AIIB begins a three-day annual meeting in Beijing to elect a successor to founding President Jin Liqun. He is due to step down next January after serving two five-year terms from the bank's inception. The favorite to replace him is China's nominee, Zou Jiayi, who is one of the more than 200 elite members of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee.

·       The annual summer meeting of the World Economic Forum returns to Tianjin, near Beijing. Among the speakers at the three-day forum are Richard Liu, founder and chairman of Chinese online retailer JD.com; Dai Houliang, chairman of China National Petroleum; and Faisal Alibrahim, the minister of economy and planning of Saudi Arabia. Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, who is on a first visit to China as prime minister from June 22 to 26, will also speak at the forum.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (June)

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (May)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (May)/ Coincident Index (April)/ Leading Index (April)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 2025 NATO Summit begins in the Hague, Netherlands.  The primary focus of the Summit was expected to be the War in Ukraine.  However with the US bombing of Iran this past weekend, the Iranian issue will likely dominate talks.  Additionally, a number of non-NATO member leaders will be attendance including Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and new South Korean President Lee Jae Myung.  Both Ishiba and Lee are hoping to use the opportunity to move forward with a trade deal with US President Trump.

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  The primary topic will be preparations for the upcoming June European Council meetings on June 26-27.

·       The German 2025 budget will be published by the cabinet.  The government has been operating on a pro-rata provision budget due to the early elections.

·       The French far-left La France Insoumise Party is expected to file a no-confidence motion against the government.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives remarks on Britain’s return to the gold standard in 1925.

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Megan Greene gives remarks at the NIESR Conference in London.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden gives remarks that the Barclays CEPR Monetary Policy Forum in London.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks and takes Q&A at the XLII APIE seminar organized by Association of Spanish Financial journalists and Universidad Menéndez Pelayo in Santander, Spain.

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives remarks on the occasion of the conferral of the De Sanctis Award "Europa" to her in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the keynote speech at the Barclays-CEPR Monetary Policy Forum 2025 in London, United Kingdom.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery gives a dinner speech followed by Q&A at SSM-Senior Forum organized by A&O Shearman in Königstein, Germany.

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (June)/ Capacity Utilization (June)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (June)/ Ifo Current Conditions (June)/ Ifo Expectations (June)

·       Poland Retail Sales (May)/ M3 Money Supply (May)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (June)/ Tourist Arrivals (May)

·       Great Britain BoE Greene Speech/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (June)/ BoE Ramsden Speech/ BoE Gov Bailey Speech/ BoE Breeden Speech

·       Euro Area ECB Guindos Speech/ ECB President Lagarde Speech/ ECB Lane Speech

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (June)/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (March)

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q1

Wednesday, June 25, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Children and Armed Conflict.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        The Organization of American States hosts its annual assembly in Antigua and Barbuda.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell testifies before the Senate Banking Committee.

·       The  Federal Reserve holds a meeting "to discuss proposed revisions to the Board's supplementary leverage ratio standards."

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (June/20)/ MBA Purchase Index (June/20)/New Home Sales (May)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (June/20)/ Building Permits Final (May)          

·       Brazil Current Account (May)/ Foreign Direct Investment (May)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (May)

·       Argentina Current Account Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Defense Ministers Meeting will take place in Qingdao, China.  The attendees will be from member countries China, Russia, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Belarus.

·       The ASEAN IA Summit takes place in Kuala Lumpur.

·       Today is the 75th anniversary of North Korea’s invasion of South Korea.

·       Nikkei and the Financial Times are co-hosting Energy Transition Summit Asia 2025 in Jakarta.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Naoki Tamura gives a speech to local leaders in Fukushima, Japan.

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

·       Japan Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions/ BoJ JGB Purchases/ Coincident Index Final (April)/ Leading Economic Index Final (April)

·       Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (May)

·       Thailand Interest Rate Decision

·       India M3 Money Supply (June/13)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Trade union workers at the Port of Antwerp are expected to either strike or run a work-slow down as they seek increased pay and better work conditions.   The Antwerp Port is already significantly backlogged.

·       Today is Croatia Independence Day, celebrating when the country declared its independence from the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in 1991.

·       Slovenia celebrates Statehood Day, marking when the country when a plebiscite was held and 95% of voters voted for independence.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Executive Director Victoria Cleland gives a keynote speech at the UK Finance Digital Innovation Summit in London.

·       Euro Area New Car Registrations (May)/ ECB Donnery Speech

·       France Consumer Confidence (June)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (May)/ Jobseekers Total (May)

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Q1/ PPI (May)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (June)/ SNB Quarterly Bulletin

·       Russia Industrial Production (May)/ PPI (May)

·       Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q1

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Mozambique Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, June 26, 2025

Global

·       The Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), followed by consultations.

·       Today is the 80th Anniversary of the first 50 countries signing the Charter of the United Nations, effectively found the United Nations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland holds its 2025 Policy Summit, beginning at 9 a.m., with the theme "Building Strong and Sustainable Communities.”  Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will give opening remarks. Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr will speak on June 26th.  Governor Lisa Cook will speak on June 27 at 9:15 a.m.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on the economy before the New York Association for Business Economics.

·       Brazil BCB Monetary Policy Report/ IPCA mid-month CPI (June)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (May)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       USA Durable Goods Orders (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (May)/ Initial Jobless Claims (June/21)/ PCE Prices Q1/ Pending Home Sales (May)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (June)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing & Composite Index (June)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (June/26)/ Fed Balance Sheet (June/25)

·       Canada Average Weekly Earnings (April)/ Wholesale Sales (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (June)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (June/21)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (June)

·       Malaysia PPI (May)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (May)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Council meets in Brussels through June 27.  EU leaders will gather to discuss a host of issues ranging from Ukraine to the situation in Iran, EU competitiveness, and the situation in Gaza.

·       Bloomberg holds its Sustainable Business Summit in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank holds a General Council Meeting (virtual).

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the British Chamber of Commerce Global Annual Conference in London.

·       European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde gives the opening speech at the 150th anniversary of Münchner Opernfestspiele in Munich, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a virtual the Deutsche Bank Forum 2025 being held in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel speaks and participates on a panel discussion at the 'Wirtschaftsrat der CDU' Finanzmarktklausur in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence JUL

·       Hungary Current Account Q1

·       Great Britain BoE Breeden Speech/ CBI Distributive Trades (June)/ BoE Gov Bailey Speech

·       Turkey MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/20)

·       Russia Corporate Profits (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Iran Local Elections

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Madagascar Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Consumer Confidence Q2/ PPI (May)

Friday, June 27, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Sudan followed by consultations, and in the afternoon is scheduled to have a briefing United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO), followed by consultations.

·       The 24th Bank for International Settlements Annual Conference will be held in Basel, Switzerland.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams moderates a session featuring keynote remarks from Professor Carmen Reinhart at the 24th Bank of International Settlements Annual Conference.

·       The Federal Reserve releases the results of its annual bank stress tests.

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (June)/ Bank Lending (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)/ Net Payrolls (May)

·       USA Personal Income (May)/ PCE Price Index (May)/ Core PCE Price Index (May)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (June)

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Canada GDP (April)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (May)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (May)

·       El Salvador Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Paraguay Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Uruguay Current Account Q1

·       Panama Current Account Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou leads a delegation of students on a tour of China.

·       Today is National Unity Day in Tajikistan, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (May)/ Jobs/applications ratio (May)/ Tokyo CPI (June)/ Retail Sales (May)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Consumer Confidence Q2

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (May)/ Current Account Final Q1

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (May)

·       Singapore Export Prices (May)/ Import Prices (May)/ PPI (May)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/20)

·       Sri Lanka Balance of Trade (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 18th Accession Conference with Montenegro will be held in Brussels.

·       European Council on Foreign Relations begins its two-day annual council meeting in Warsaw, where policymakers and thought leaders will gather to discuss pressing global challenges

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Car Production (May)/ Current Account Q1/ Business Investment Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (May)

·       France Inflation Rate (June)/ PPI (May)

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (June)/ Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (June)/ Retail Sales (May)/             Business Confidence (June)

·       Turkey Economic Confidence Index (June)

·       Italy Business Confidence (June)/ Consumer Confidence (June)/ Industrial Sales (April)/       PPI (May)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (May)

·       Euro Area           Economic Sentiment (June)/ Consumer Confidence Final (June)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)/ Industrial Sentiment (June)/ Selling Price Expectations (June)/ Services Sentiment (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Foreign Ministers of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda are scheduled to sign a peace agreement in the presence of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The deal will result in Rwandan forces to withdraw from eastern Congo and the creation of a regional economic integration framework.

·       Today is Djibouti Independence Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (June)

Saturday, June 28, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Constitution Day in Ukraine.

·       Today is Armed Forces Day in the UK.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel chairs a panel discussion at Petersberger Sommerdialog 2025 in Königswinter (Bonn), Germany.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 29, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Seychelles Independence Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

The Israeli-Iran War Expands,  Canada hosts the G7+, the UN Holds a High-level Two-State Solution Conference, and the Fed, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan Meet on Interest Rates

Israel and Iran are now going into their fourth day of ballistic missile strikes on each other after Israeli fighter bombers struck Iranian nuclear facilities, targeting senior Iranian military leaders and nuclear scientists.  At the time of this writing, it appears the targeting has expanded away from military targets to civilian targets, including energy and infrastructure. 

As to how long the fighting will continue, there is no clear answer but from all the conversations we have had with US government officials and Middle Eastern experts, it will likely last weeks if not months as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made clear Israel will not let up until Iran’s growing stockpile of highly enriched uranium and all the enrichment facilities, centrifuge production lines, and other affiliated support facilities are destroyed.

But fully succeeding in destroying those facilities will not be easy, as Iran has spent years not only fortifying them but also making them particularly hard to hit.  The best example of this is the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, which is built deep into a mountain in Qom, Iran, estimated as deep as half a mile down.  It is estimated there could be as many as 3,000 centrifuges inside Fordow.  But destroying the facility is particularly hard since the facilities are buried so deeply into the mountain, and Israel is not seen as having the military capability to destroy it (only the US has the capacity).  

Overall, there are an estimated twelve other nuclear facilities being targeted by Israel, and, according to initial reports, many of them have been struck and destroyed by Israeli forces.

The big question for markets will be how far the fighting spreads, specifically, to the oil and gas sector.  Israel has hit the main gas depot and central oil refinery in Tehran and reportedly has hit a major natural gas facility in Bushehr, Iran.  And fear is growing that Israel could focus on other Iranian oil and gas facilities.

The Israeli-Iranian fighting is going to dominate the G7+ meetings that begin Monday in Canada. But the current trade tensions brought by President Trump’s “Liberation Day” will also be a major focus of the meetings.  All of the G7 leaders (the US, Japan, Canada, the UK, France, Germany, and Italy) plus the invited guest leaders of India, Ukraine, Mexico, South Africa, and South Korea will be gathered in Alberta for two days of meetings.   There are reports that President Trump is hoping to announce trade deals with Canada, Mexico, and Japan, but we cannot confirm this and are doubtful they will be announced during the summit.

Elsewhere, the United Nations is holding a high-level conference this week to discuss the feasibility of a two-state solution with Israel and Palestinians.  The event is being co-hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron and Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salem.  The US is boycotting the event and urging other countries not to participate.  

In Washington, we are watching to see what President Trump does with TikTok this week as the latest deadline for the company to suspend operations Thursday. We are expecting Trump to again give an extension for the parent company, ByteDance, in the hope that a compromise can be reached. 

Kazakhstan will be the scene of an important meeting of Central Asian leaders and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the China-Central Asia Leaders’ Summit.  The leaders of Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan – all mineral-rich and eager to expand trade ties with China – will discuss ways to better coordinate on policy and trade.

Looking at the global markets radar screen, it will be a big week for central banks as the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan each meet to discuss interest rates.   With all that is happening in the Middle East with spiking oil prices along with ongoing global trade tensions, we do not envy any of these central banks in deciding which way to go on rates. 

Looking at major economic reports being released this week, in the US, it is a shortened week with the Juneteenth holiday on Thursday (markets are closed).  But on Tuesday, we will see two May economic activity reports, retail sales and industrial production reports, released.  And on Wednesday, housing market data is due for release.

In Asia, Japan’s May trade balance is out on Wednesday, and its May CPI print is out on Friday.  And China releases industrial production and retail sales figures.  And in Europe, there are a large number of speeches by European Central Bank Board members, plus the Eurogroup meets in Luxembourg on Thursday.  The major reports markets include Germany’s ZEW June Survey, along with the business confidence figures.  France releases its May retail sales on Friday.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, June 15, 2025

Global

·       The G7 Leaders’ Summit begins in Alberta, Canada and goes through June 17.  In advance of the meeting, the 50th G7 meeting, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who is chairing the Summit, announced the priorities for the meeting will include: “1) Protecting our communities and the world—strengthening peace and security, countering foreign interference and transnational crime, and improving joint responses to wildfires. 2) Building energy security and accelerating the digital transition—fortifying critical mineral supply chains and using artificial intelligence and quantum to unleash economic growth, and 3) Securing the partnerships of the future—catalyzing enormous private investment to build stronger infrastructure, create higher-paying jobs, and open dynamic markets where businesses can compete and succeed.

·       The US hosts the FIFA World Cup 2025 through July 13.  32 teams will take part in the newly expanded format.

·       It is Father’s Day, celebrated globally. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen pay a joint visit to Greenland.  The point of the meeting is to support the independence of Greenland in the face of President Trump’s efforts to acquire it, which Macron has termed as “preying on” the Danish territory.  

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (April)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Agricultural Ministers through June 17 in Warsaw.

·       Cities in Spain, Portugal, France, Italy, Croatia, and Greece will participate in the Southern European Meeting Against Touristization (SET) 2025. The point of the conference is to find ways to curb mass tourism.

·       Zug, Switzerland holds Executive Council by-elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Morocco and France, in addition to eight other countries from the 5+5 Defense Initiative, will conduct the Sea Border 25 joint naval exercise through June 20.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Balance of Trade (May)/ GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q1/ Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (May)/ Wholesale Prices (May)

·       Jordan Unemployment Rate Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 16, 2025 

Global

·       The UN Security Council will is scheduled to hold consultations on Protection of civilians in armed conflict. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on Sudan.  

·       OPEC releases its monthly oil report.

·       The UN Climate Change June Climate Meetings in Bonn, Germany begin and run through June 26.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       A U.S. Federal Judge is scheduled to hear the legal arguments over the White House’s efforts to block Harvard’s ability to have international students.

·       The US House of Representatives is out of session this coming week, but the US Senate is in session.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity APR/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada Housing Starts MAY

·       USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index/ NOPA Crush Report

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese President Xi Jinping will arrive in Kazakhstan for meetings in advance of the China-Central Asia Leaders’ Summit (which begins the following day).  Xi is looking to deepen ties with the mineral-rich country and expand trade overall.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will travel to New Delhi, India for meetings with Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar.

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Cyprus through June 16.

·       US, Japanese, and Philippine Coast Guard units will be holding drills off the coast of the Philippines.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of Japan meets to discuss monetary policy.

·        New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI MAY

·       China House Price Index YoY MAY/ Industrial Production YoY MAY/ Retail Sales YoY MAY/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY/ Unemployment Rate MAY/ New Yuan Loans MAY/ M2 Money Supply YoY MAY/ Outstanding Loan Growth YoY MAY/ Total Social Financing MAY

·       India WPI Food/ Fuel/ Inflation/ Manufacturing Index YoY MAY

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production YoY MAY

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI MAY/ Services PMI MAY

·       Singapore Balance of Trade MAY

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy (Energy) meeting Luxembourg. Ministers will be invited to express their opinions on the REPowerEU roadmap, which the Commission made public on 6 May. The roadmap follows up on the March 2022 European Council meeting, when leaders agreed to phase out Europe's dependency on Russian energy imports as soon as possible.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture Ministers through June 17 in Warsaw, Poland.

·       The 55th Paris Air Show begins in Le Bourget Airfield and runs through June 22.

·       The International Conference on the Science of Science and Innovation begins in Copenhagen, Denmark. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone will give the opening at the Osservatorio Banca Impresa 2030 Meeting in Milan, Italy.

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices YoY MAY/ SECO Economic Forecasts

·       Turkey Current Account APR/ Retail Sales YoY APR/ Budget Balance MAY

·       Italy Inflation Rate YoY Final MAY

·       Euro Area Labour Cost Index YoY Final Q1/ Wage Growth YoY Q1

·       Serbia Building Permits APR

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate YoY MAY

·       Belarus Industrial Production YoY MAY

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply YoY MAY

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves MAY/ M3 Money Supply YoY MAY

·       Nigeria Food Inflation YoY MAY/ Inflation Rate YoY MAY

Tuesday, June 17, 2025

Global

·       A UN Conference – co-chaired by Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salme and France’s President Emmanual Macron – on a possible two-state solution with Israel will begin and run through June 20.  Entitled “Peaceful Settlement of the Question of Palestine and the Implementation of the Two-State Solution” will involve an estimated 150 countries.  However, Israel and the U.S. have elected not to participate. The US has condemned the conference and urged other countries not to participate. President Emmanuel Macron has suggested France could recognize a Palestinian state in Israeli-occupied territories at the conference.  Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman may attend but has not confirmed his attendance yet.

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).

·       The International Energy Agency (IEA) June 2025 Oil Report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Regional Conference on South – South Cooperation in Latin America and the Caribbean is held in Santiago, Chile.  The Conference brings together representatives of the region’s countries, the United Nations system, and regional and international organizations. 

·       Mexico’s Federal Economic Competition Commission (Cofece) – the country’s antitrust body – will deliver a ruling on Google’s alleged monopoly in the digital advertising market.

·       Argentina celebrates The Commemoration of General Don Martín Miguel de Güemes, a public holiday.  The day commemorates the general who helped win Argentina’s independence from Spain in 1820.

·       Virginia holds gubernatorial primaries.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Markets Committee meets today and tomorrow to discuss interest rates.

·       Canada Foreign Securities Purchases APR

·       USA Import & Export Prices YoY MAY/ Retail Sales YoY MAY/ Redbook YoY JUN/14/ Capacity Utilization MAY/ Industrial Production YoY MAY/ Manufacturing Production YoY MAY/ Business Inventories MoM APR/ NAHB Housing Market Index JUN/ API Crude Oil Stock Change JUN/13/ International Monetary Market (IMM)

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The China-Central Asia Leaders’ Summit will take place in Astana, Kazakhstan.  The Summit brings together the leaders of China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.

·       New Zealand's Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will visit China through June 20.

·       Russia and North Korea will resume passenger train connections after a 4-year hiatus.

·       The Circular Economy Forum 2025 begins in Manila. The event, sponsored by the Asian Development Bank, runs through Thursday and the primary focus of this year’s conference is how to reduce plastic pollution.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Import & Exports Prices YoY MAY

·       New Zealand Import Prices YoY MAY/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index JUN

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports YoY MAY

·       Japan Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate MAY

·       Philippines Cash Remittances APR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Environmental Council meets in Luxembourg.  EU Environmental Ministers are expected to reach an agreement on the Council's position regarding a new regulation that will replace the current directives on end-of-life vehicles (ELV), as well as those on reusability, recyclability, and recoverability.  Ministers will also exchange views on the preparations for the 30th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP30), which will take place in the Brazilian city of Belém in November 2025.

·       The SeaEnergy Forum which is focused on offshore renewable energy begins in Paris and runs through June 18.

·       Today is Iceland Independence Day, celebrating the country’s freedom from Denmark.

·       In England, the Royal Ascot horse races begin.  The races were first run in 1711 when Queen Anne arranged them.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Hungary Gross Wage YoY APR

·       France IEA Oil Market Report

·       Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index JUN

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index JUN/ ZEW Current Conditions JUN

·       Ireland Balance of Trade APR

·       Belarus GDP YoY MAY

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1

Wednesday, June 18, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Trade Representative Jamison Greer will host Malaysian Trade Minister Tengku Zafrul Aziz for trade talks.  Malaysia was hit with a 24 percent “reciprocal” tariffs when President Trump announced the “Liberation Day” tariffs.

·       The US Senate Judiciary Committee holds hearing on Joe Biden’s ‘cognitive decline’ and possible cover-up.  The Senate is now following the House of Representatives in running a probe into the then-President’s mental state and if a group of aides covered it up.

·       Today is Juneteenth National Independence Day, a public holiday in the US.

·       Argentinian unions will go on strike in advance of former President Cristina Fernandez’s court appearance which will begin her six-year prison sentence for corruption.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee votes on interest rates. Fed Chair Jay Powell holds a press conference at 2:00 p.m.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index JUN/13/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index JUN/13/ MBA Purchase Index JUN/13/ Building Permits Prel MAY/ Housing Starts MAY/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change JUN/13/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate JUN/19/ Net Long-term TIC Flows APR/ Foreign Bond Investment APR/ Overall Net Capital Flows APR

·       Governor of the Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem will give a speech at the St. John’s Board of Trade.

·       Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Mexico Aggregate Demand YoY Q1/ Private Spending YoY Q1

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity YoY APR

·       Argentina Retail Sales YoY APR/ Leading Indicator MoM MAY

·       Brazil Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishida will host German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier for bilateral talks.  Steinmeier, who will be in Japan through June 20, will also meet with Japanese Emperor Naruhito and then travel to Osaka to attend Expo 2025.

·       China will hold its annual 618 Shopping Festival. It is a major e-commerce shopping campaign here retailers offer significant discounts and promotions and dovetails with the government’s drive to increase consumer spending.

·       The inaugural Nikkei Forum Medini, co-organized by Nikkei Inc. and Iskandar Investment, will take place over two days in Medini, Malaysia's southern state of Johor, bringing together global leaders and experts to discuss regional integration, clean energy, finance, technology and innovation. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will deliver the keynote address on Thursday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Current Account Q1

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade MAY/ Machinery Orders YoY APR

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index MoM MAY

·       Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate JUN

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin will host Indonesian President Subianto Prabowo for meetings through June 20.  Prabowo, who is skipping attending the G7 Meetings in Canada despite being personally invited by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, will also attend the 28th International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg which begins today.   Putin is expected to give the opening remarks.  137 countries are sending participants to the Summit.

·       Guernsey (England) holds elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives the keynote speech at the SRB Legal Conference 2025 "Banking Crises – law, policy and practice: European and global perspectives" in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery will give a speech at the Credit Management Summit 2025 in Milan, Italy.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Prudential Policy David Bailey will give a speech at Risk.net Live Europe  Conference in London entitled “Innovation and Growth: The PRA’s Approach to Competitiveness.”

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado will participate on a panel at the SRB Legal Conference 2025 "Banking Crises – law, policy and practice: European and global perspectives" in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane will chair the keynote session at 9th Annual Macroprudential Conference organized by Deutsche Bundesbank, De Nederlandsche Bank, Central Bank of Ireland and Sveriges Riksbank in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos will give dinner remarks at the Osservatorio Permanente Giovani-Editori in Milan, Italy.

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate YoY MAY/ Retail Price Index YoY MAY

·       Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate YoY MAY

·       Euro Area Current Account APR/ CPI Final MAY/ Inflation Rate YoY Final MAY/ Eurogroup Meeting

·       Italy Current Account APR

·       Serbia Current Account APR

·       Russia Consumer Confidence Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Commonwealth Trade Ministers will meet through June 20 in Windhoek, Namibia.  Simultaneously, the inaugural Commonwealth Business Summit will be held.

·       Today is Seychelles Constitution Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate YoY MAY/ Retail Sales YoY APR

Thursday, June 19, 2025

Global

·       Guyana’s President Ali will chair the UN Security Council meeting to discuss policies to alleviate poverty to further global peace and security.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Juneteenth.  Financial markets in the US are closed.

·       Today is the deadline for ByteDance, the Chinese parent company of TikTok, to divest the US assets.  However, President Trump is expected to authorize and provide an extension.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (JUN).

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence, Balance of Trade, Unemployment

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index JUN/ Foreign Bond Investment JUN/14/ Stock Investment by Foreigners JUN/14

·       Philippines Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Australia Employment Change MAY/ Unemployment Rate MAY/ Participation Rate MAY

·       South Korea PPI

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup will meet in Luxembourg. Ministers are expected to discuss the International Monetary Fund Article IV review of euro area policies , Budgetary developments in euro area members, Euro area enlargement, specifically Bulgaria, and the Eurogroup President election process.

·       The London-based think tank, Chatham House, holds its 10th  London Conference.  A large number of government and corporate leaders will be in attendance and/or speaking.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give a  speech at the 9th Annual Research Conference "Economic and financial integration in a stormy and fragmenting World" organized by National Bank of Ukraine and National Bank of Poland in Kyiv, Ukraine.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates in a fireside chat at the Room for Discussion event organized by the University of Amsterdam in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos will give a speech on "The challenges of this century, Eurozone economic outlook" at Young Factor conference organized by Osservatorio Permanente Giovani-Editori in Milan, Italy.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will moderate a policy panel at 9th Annual Macroprudential Conference organized by Deutsche Bundesbank, De Nederlandsche Bank, Central Bank of Ireland and Sveriges Riksbank in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde give a video remark at Financi'Elles event dedicated to 60 years of the law on the financial emancipation of women.

·       Bank of England Interest Rate Decision and meeting minutes

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Friday, June 20, 2025 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Philadelphia Fed’s Manufacturing Index/Business Conditions/CAPEX Index/Employment/New Orders

·       Canada New Housing Price Index, Retail Sales, PPI, Raw Materials Prices

·       Colombia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China FDI (YTD), Central Government Debt, Loan Prime Rate 1Y/5Y

·       Japan Inflation, Bank of Japan Policy Meeting Minutes

·       India Central Bank Monetary Policy Summary of Rate Decisions, Bank Loan Growth

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Social Policy) will meet in Luxembourg.  Ministers will seek agreement on the quality framework for traineeships, the Equal Treatment Directive, and gender equality in the AI-driven digital age.

·       Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will co-host a joint summit of Italy's Mattei Plan — Rome's strategic development initiative for Africa — and the European Union's Global Gateway strategy, the bloc's flagship infrastructure investment framework.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado participates on a panel discussion at Banco de España's Legal Conference "Central banks and supervisors, emerging challenges and the law" in Madrid, Spain.

·       ECB Economic Bulletin, Eurozone Consumer Confidence

·       Italy Construction Output

·       Germany PPI

·       UK Retail Sales, Public Sector Net Borrowing ex-Banks

·       France Business Confidence and Consumer Confidence

·       Russian Central Bank Summary of Key Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkish President Erdogan will host Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan in Ankara.  The two leaders are expected to discuss efforts to reach a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The West African Economic Summit 2025 begins in Abuja, Nigeria and runs through June 21.

·       Today is Martyr’s Day in Eritrea, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, June 21, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) of Foreign Ministers will meet in Istanbul, Turkey through June 22. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Martyrs’ Day in Togo, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 22, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Speaker of the House Michael Johnson (R-LA) is scheduled to visit Israel.  He will address the Israeli Knesset (NOTE: Johnson’s trip may be canceled because of the outbreak of fighting between Israel and Iran.)

·       Today is the tentative date Telsa will launch their new Robotaxis in Austin, Texas.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly elections take place.  There are 127 seats representing the 14 million residents of Tokyo open for election.

·       Today is the 60th anniversary of Japan and South Korea establishing diplomatic ties.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The US-Africa Business Summit begins in Luanda, Angola.  More than 1,500 attendees including a number of African government leaders, are expected to attend the three-day event.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

The G7 Leaders’ Summit Convenes, US and Chinese Trade Negotiations Begin Yet Again, Trump’s Birthday Parade, Pope Leo’s First Address to the US, and China’s Inflation Figures

June 8 - 15, 2025

The big geopolitical event of the week is the G7 Leaders’ Summit being held in Alberta, Canada.  This will be President Trump’s first trip to Canada since being re-elected and since he placed tough tariffs on the country.   

The overall G7 agenda, as outlined by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, is to focus on several broad themes – “protecting our communities and the world, building energy security and accelerating digital transition, and securing the partnerships of the future.”  But the real focus will be trade and how to get to an end-game with the Trump tariff changes as well as discussing the opportunities and threats of AI. 

But a lot of other major action will be taking place at the Summit including a possible meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and President Trump – the first meeting between the two leaders since their disastrous meeting at the White House on February 28th. 

On Monday, US Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and US Trade Representative Jamison Greer will travel to London for talks with Chinese trade negotiators to try to and get trade talks back on track.   The meetings are the result of a telephone conversation between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping this past week.  There had been a 90-day pause on Trump’s China tariffs but that quickly fell apart after the US added new guidance on preventing Chinese semiconductor chips to be sold in the US. 

Elsewhere this week, two big no-confidence votes are being held on Wednesday.  The first in Poland on the heels of last week’s presidential elections.  The Polish Parliament is likely to hold a no-confidence vote on Prime Minister Donald Tusks government and there is a fairly good chance it will go through, forcing new parliamentary elections.  

Meanwhile, Israel’s opposition parties will try to force a no-confidence vote in a bid to force new elections and push Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from office.  Current polling suggest Netanyahu would lose if elections were held today as many voters appear unhappy with the ongoing Gaza war.  Additionally, two of Netanyahu’s coalition parties – both representing ultra-Orthodox voters – are threatening to withdraw their support unless there is a last-minute agreement giving an exemption to ultra-Orthodox men from military service.

Back in Washington, the US Senate will continue to work on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBA) – otherwise known as the Reconciliation bill – as a number of House Republican members who voted for the measure are now publicly expressing regret as the bill is now expected to add as much as $4 trillion to the federal deficit.   But the big news was Elon Musk’s extraordinary public spat with President Trump which began when Musk tweeted out his disgust with the size and shape of OBBA and then went on to criticize Trump – and even call for his impeachment – for supporting the bill in its current format.   We expect the US Senate to move to change a number of market-sensitive provisions – including Section 899 which would allow Treasury to place retaliatory taxes on foreign companies as well as the state and local (SALT) provisions which the House raised to $40,000 but is facing a host of criticism from Republicans.  We continue to hold the view reaching a final deal on OBBA is going to take much longer than the Trump Administration is hoping for – July 4th is the stated goal – and is likely to be scaled back in order to get enough Republican support. 

And finally, this week will see two big events in the US this Saturday: President Trump’s birthday parade on Friday in Washington that will simultaneously celebrate the 250th anniversary of the US Army.   The parade will take place along Constitution Avenue in Washington.   The second big event will be in Chicago where newly elected Pope Leo XIV will address via video to a sold-out (40,000+) Rate Stadium  (where the Holy Father’s beloved White Sox play).  This will be the Holy Father’s first official address to the United States. 

Looking at the global economic radar screen, the big events of the coming week are – aside from the G7 Meeting – China’s trade data and inflation figures and the US’s May CPI print.

The US CPI is out on Wednesday and PPI is out on Friday – both of which will be an important indicator for how the Federal Reserve may move during the FMOC meeting the following week and the overall impact of the Trump tariffs since Liberation Day.  Also out in the US this week is the Univeristy of Michigan June consumer sentiment survey on Friday.  There are no Fed speeches this week as the Fed has gone into their “Blackout Period” in advance of the FMOC meeting.

In Europe, UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves will be delivering the Spending Review to Parliament on Wednesday, revealing the spending priorities of  Prime Minister Starmer’s government.  It will include plans for spending more than £600 billion on public services – 1/5 of the total British economy.  In the EU this week, there are a large number of European Central Bank speeches including ECB President Christine Lagarde speaking in Beijing. 

Bringing it back to Asia, Japan releases the May Economy Watchers Survey on Monday and the PPI on Wednesday.   But markets are mostly focused on China’s inflation and trade figure releases on Monday to get a sense how deeply the Trump tariffs have impacted the economy. 

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, June 8, 2025

Global

·       Today is Pentecost, a major feast in the Christian church marking the 50th day of Easter.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Italy is set to hold a Constitutional referendum and run-off elections for regional elective office through Monday.  The Constitutional referendum concerns changes to the law on the acquisition of Italian citizenship for foreign residents and repeals some provisions on employment as passed by the 2025 Jobs Act law.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen participates in the 2025 UN Ocean Conference Leaders dinner in Paris, France.  She will speak at the conference tomorrow.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado participates in a panel discussion at the 31st Dubrovnik Economic Conference of Hrvatska Narodna Banka in Dubrovnik, Croatia.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (May)/ Tourist Arrivals (May)

·       Jordan Unemployment Rate Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 9, 2025

Global

·       The 2025 UN Ocean Conference begins in Nice, France and runs through June 13.  This is the first UN Ocean Conference since the 2022 conference in Lisbon (Portugal). It will also be the first conference since the historic Agreement on Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction, also known as the High Seas Treaty.

·       The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors meet in Vienna, Austria through June 13.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and US Trade Representative Jamison Greer will travel to London for renewed trade talks with China. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will lead the Chinese delegation.

·       The Trump Administration’s response to a Federal Appeals Court regarding tariff authority is due to be filed.

·       President Trump’s travel ban on 12 countries goes into effect.  The countries include Afghanistan, Myanmar, Chad, the Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen.

·       Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro will testify before the Federal Supreme Court in a case in which he is accused of plotting a coup in 2022. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The US Federal Reserve goes into its “Blackout” period in advance of the Open Market Committee meetings June 17-18. There are no speeches by any Fed Governors until after the meetings.

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (April)

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       USA Balance of Trade (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (April)

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (April)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia celebrates the King’s Birthday.  Financial markets are closed.

·       New Zealand Manufacturing Sales Q1

·       Japan Current Account (April)/ GDP Growth Annualized Q1/ Bank Lending (May)/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q1/ GDP Price Index Q1/ BoJ JGB Purchases/ Eco Watchers Survey Current (May)

·       China Inflation Rate (May)/ PPI (May)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Q1/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will receive NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in London.  Rutte He will also give a speech at Chatham House and visit Sheffield Forgemasters with the Secretary of State for Defence, John Healey.

·       Argentine President Javier Milei visits Spain for bilateral talks.  Milei then travels on to Israel for meetings.

·       Belarus Foreign Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov travels to Moscow for meetings with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.  They are expected to discuss preparations for the upcoming Eurasian Economic Forum on June 26027 in Minsk.

·       London Tech Week begin and runs through June 13. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is scheduled to speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       It is Whit Monday in Europe.  Financial markets in Germany, Norway, and Switzerland are closed.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives a keynote speech on the rule of law at the Italian Court in Rome, Italy.

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (April)

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (April)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (May)

Tuesday, June 10, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) followed by consultations. 

·       Today is the 90th anniversary of the founding of Alcoholics Anonymous.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Senate Foreign Relations Committee holds confirmation hearings for Jacob Helberg for undersecretary of state for economic growth, energy, and the environment; Andrew Puzder for U.S. ambassador to the European Union; Paul Kapur for assistant secretary of state for South Asian affairs; and Benjamin Black for CEO of the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation.

·       New Jersey holds its gubernatorial primary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (May)/ Redbook (June/07)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (June/06)

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (May)

·       El Salvador PPI (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China will host the fourth China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo in Changsha through June 12.

·       Pakistan’s finance minister, Muhammad Aurangzeb, will deliver a budget to parliament against the backdrop of the country’s IMF loan program.

·       The Bloomberg Invest Conference begins in Hong Kong and goes through June 11.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index/ NAB Business Confidence (May)

·       Japan Machine Tool Orders (May)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Minister of External Affairs of India in Brussels.

·       The Europlace Conference is being held in Paris, France.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates on a panel discussion at the Jacques Delors event "Matching savings and investments: The role of banks and capital markets in financing Europe’s future", in Berlin.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery gives a presentation at the 2025 IIF European Chief Risk Officer Forum (virtual).

· European Central Bank Governing Council member Robert Holzmann speaks at the presentation of the Austrian National Bank’s report on financial stability.

·       Bank of England External Member of the Financial Policy Committee Randall Kroszner gives a speech at the ECB Conference on Financial Stability and Macroprudential Policy 2025 in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (April)/ Employment Change (April)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (May)/ Claimant Count Change (May)

·       Romania Balance of Trade (April)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Euro Area ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts 

·       Italy Industrial Production (April)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (April)

·       Greece Inflation Rate (May)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (May)

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (May)

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (April)

·       Hungary Budget Balance (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet with Argentine President Javier Milei in Tel Aviv, Israel.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (April)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (April)/ Private Bank Lending (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production (April)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (May)

·       Kenya Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, June 11, 2025

Global

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (IRMCT).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Mexican airline Aero México will likely see flight attendants go on strike for higher wages.

·       Bloomberg hosts its Global Credit Forum in Los Angeles, California.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (June/06)/ MBA Purchase Index (June/06)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ CPI (May)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (June/06)/ Monthly Budget Statement (May)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (April)

·       Canada Building Permits (April)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Philippine Congress holds hearing to present Articles of Impeachment against Vice President Sara Duterte.  The lower house in February impeached Duterte, the daughter of former President Rodrigo Duterte, on accusations that included budget anomalies, amassing unusual wealth and an alleged threat to the lives of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, the first lady, and the House Speaker.

·       Malaysia will host the ASEAN Plus Three and East Asia Summits.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (April)

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Japan PPI (May)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

·       India M3 Money Supply (May/30)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (May)

·       Indonesia Car Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Polish lawmakers hold vote of confidence called by Prime Minister Donald Tusk after the defeat of a political ally in the June 1 presidential ballot with the election of Karol Nawrocki.

·       UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves presents the Spending Review to Parliament.

·       The Ukraine Recovery Conference begins in Berlin and runs through June 12.

·       European Council on Foreign Relations chair Carl Bildt, Congressional Leadership Fund former president Dan Conston and Danish climate minister Dan Jørgensen are among the speakers at the two-day Brussels Forum 2025, which will focus on transatlantic political and economic issues

·       VivaTEch!, Europe’s largest startup and tech event, begins in Paris and runs through June 14.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a presentation at the People's Bank of China in Beijing, China.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives a keynote speech followed by fireside chat at the Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference 2025 in Berlin, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane gives a keynote presentation at the 2025 Government Borrowers Forum in Dublin, Ireland.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollo gives a video message at the European Payments Council's General Assembly in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Markets Victoria Saporta gives a speech at the Bank of Finland and SUERF Conference on Monetary Policy Implementation in Helsinki, Finland.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Financial Stability, Strategy, and Risk Nathanaël Benjamin gives a speech at the Global Investment Management Summit  in London.

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (May)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Slovakia Construction Output (April)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (April)/ Inflation Rate (May)

·       Turkey Auto Production (May)/ Auto Sales (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel’s opposition parties will seek to dissolve the Knesset in an effort to bring an early election.  Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition are threatening to leave over policies forcing conscription of ultra-Orthodox young men into the army.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       South Africa's National Assembly is due to vote on the government's proposed fiscal framework, the first of three pieces of legislation to adopt the country's 2025 budget.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (April)/ SACCI Business Confidence (May)

Thursday, June 12, 2025 

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled in the morning to hold a briefing on Yemen, followed by consultations.  In the afternoon, it is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).

·       World Bank President Ajay Banga will speak at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, appear in front of the House Armed Services Committee for a hearing on the Defense Department’s 2026 budget request.

·       Today is Chaco Armistice Day in Paraguay.  The public holiday commemorates the end of the Chaco War between Paraguay and Bolivia in the 1930..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Retail Sales (April)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (June/07)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (May/31)/ PPI (May)/ Business Confidence (June)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (June/12)/ WASDE Report/ Fed Balance Sheet (June/11)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (April)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (May)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwan is expected to hold is annual Wanan Civil Defense Drills in the Kinmen Islands.

·       In Hong Kong, the Hong Kong Auto Expo begins and runs through Sunday. The event, organized by the mainland's China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, aims to help at drive the global expansion of the Chinese automotive industry, which is currently gripped by a brutal price war between electric vehicle manufacturers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (May)

·       Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Q2/ Foreign Bond Investment (June/07)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (June)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)/ RBA Jacobs Speech

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Hong Kong Industrial Production Q1

·       India Inflation Rate (May)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Justice) meets in Luxembourg. Ministers will discuss a general approach on a directive to harmonize certain aspects of insolvency law across the EU, protection of adults, and the fight against impunity (dealing with Russia war crimes).

·       The International Energy Administration holds a two-day conference on global energy efficiency in Brussels.

·       Today is Russia Day in Russia.  The national holiday originally celebrated the fall of communism and the collapse of the Soviet Union.  But its meaning has now been shifted by President Putin to celebrating the country’s modernization.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a  keynote speech at the Annual Joint Conference of the European Commission and the European Central Bank “European financial integration: Advancing the savings and investments union” in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel visits and speaks at the House of the Euro in Brussels, Belgium.  Later in the day, Schnabel will moderate a panel entitled “Funding the future: Strategies for supporting innovation and growth” at the Annual Joint Conference of the European Commission and the European Central Bank “European financial integration: Advancing the savings and investments union” in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will give a keynote speech at the IMF-WB annual high-level Conference for Senior Supervisors in Washington, DC.

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (May)/ GDP (April)/ Goods Trade Balance (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Construction Output (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Manufacturing Production (April)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (May)

·       Romania Inflation Rate (May)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/06)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (May)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (May)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Germany Current Account (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (April)/ Mining Production (April)

Friday, June 13, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Capacity Utilization Q1/ Manufacturing Sales (April)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (April)/ Wholesale Sales (April)

·       USA Michigan Current Conditions Prel (June)/ Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectation/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (June)

·       Colombia Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (May)

·       Uruguay GDP Growth Rate Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Tokyo, Japan, campaigning for Tokyo’s metropolitan assembly elections being held on June 22 begin.  The race is seen as a key political test for Prime Minister Ishida in advance of Japan’s upper house elections later this summer.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (May)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (March)

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (April)

·       Japan BoJ JGB Purchases/ Industrial Production (April)/ Capacity Utilization (April)/ Tertiary Industry Index (April)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (April)

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       Sri Lanka GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

·       China Vehicle Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Home Affairs) will meet in Luxembourg. Ministers will discuss IT infrastructure, the Schengen report, migration issues, and EU internal security.

·       The 2025 Paris Air Forum will be held.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)

·       Romania Industrial Production (April)/ Current Account (April)

·       Hungary Construction Output (April)/ Industrial Production (April)

·       France Inflation Rate (May)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (May)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (May)

·       Italy Balance of Trade (April)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (May)/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Current Account (April)

·       Euro Area Industrial Production (April)/ ECB Montagner Speech/ ECB Elderson Speech

·       Greece Construction Output Q1

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (April)

·       Russia GDP Growth Rate Q1

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Inflation Rate (May)/ Wholesale Prices (April)

Saturday, June 14, 2025

Global

·       Today is Eid-e-Chadir, celebrated by Shia Muslims on the 18th day of the Islamic month of Dhul Hijjah, the final month of the lunar based Muslim calendar.  The religious holiday is named after the event in which Shia Muslims believe that the cousin of the Prophet Muhammad, Ali ibn Abi Talib, was appointed as a leader and religious authority after the Prophet.

·       Pope Leo XIV will speak virtually at a youth event being held at White Sox Stadium in Chicago.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Falkland Islands Liberation Day, celebrating when in 1982 the Island was liberated from Argentinian occupation.

·       Today is President Donald Trump’s 79th birthday.  The day will be celebrated with a large military parade which will also celebrate the US Army’s 250 anniversary.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 15, 2025

Global

·       The G7 Leaders’ Summit begins in Alberta, Canada and goes through June 17.  In advance of the meeting, the 50th G7 meeting, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who is chairing the Summit, announced the priorities for the meeting will include: “1) Protecting our communities and the world—strengthening peace and security, countering foreign interference and transnational crime, and improving joint responses to wildfires. 2) Building energy security and accelerating the digital transition—fortifying critical mineral supply chains and using artificial intelligence and quantum to unleash economic growth, and 3) Securing the partnerships of the future—catalyzing enormous private investment to build stronger infrastructure, create higher-paying jobs, and open dynamic markets where businesses can compete and succeed.

·       It is Father’s Day, celebrated globally. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (April)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Agricultural Ministers through June 17 in Warsaw.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Balance of Trade (May)/ GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q1/ Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (May)/ Wholesale Prices (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Major Elections Dominate the Week Ahead, the US Pushes Asian Allies to Ramp Up Defense Spending to 5% of GDP,  the US Senate Takes Up the Reconciliation Bill, and the ECB Decides Rates

Major elections dominate the geopolitical calendar this week.  First, Poland is holding important presidential run-off elections.  At the time of this writing, the race is too close to call, but it appears conservative historian Karol Nawrocki is slightly ahead, and official results are expected to be announced Monday.  If Nawrocki wins, it will be seen as a defeat for both the current ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk and the European Union, as Nawrocki is perceived as an EU skeptic. 

Also happening on Sunday, Mexico is voting for its judiciary for the first time.  More than 2,600 federal, state, and local court seats are being voted on, moving the country away from an appointment-based system. It also makes Mexico the only country in the world to elect all its judges.  The move to an elected judiciary was championed by former President Andrés Manuel López Obrad (AMLO) and his successor, President Claudia Sheinbaum. Proponents say it will rid corruption from the judiciary, while critics argue it will politicize the judiciary and allow drug cartels to further influence judges.

The third big election this week is in South Korea, where voters will select a new president following the recent impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol, who tried to seize control by declaring martial law six months ago.  The South Korean political system has been chaotic ever since, but voters appear to be leaning toward electing left-wing Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung.   With the economy experiencing slower growth, the election will likely result in a seismic political and economic change in the months ahead.

We would note US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s speech at the Shangri-la Security Conference this past week.  Hegseth made headlines by saying a potential invasion of Taiwan by China is more likely than ever before.  He also called on US allies in Asia to increase their defense spending to 5% of their GDP.   He also formally requested that Australia immediately raise its defense spending to 3.5% from the current rate, which is putting the country on track to hit 2.4% by 2030.

In Turkey on Tuesday, low-level meetings between Russian and Ukrainian diplomats are scheduled to take place.  No breakthroughs are expected despite President Donald Trump’s urging Russia to end the war immediately.  The meeting will take place in advance of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group – made up of NATO defense ministers – meeting in Brussels on Wednesday to discuss how to further support Ukraine. 

Also in Europe this week, the European Commission is scheduled to release a report recommending that Bulgaria adopt the Euro by 2026, further integrating the nation into the European Union.  

Moving to the US, Congress returns from their week-long Memorial Day recess, and the US Senate will begin debating President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which was passed by the House of Representatives ten days ago. 

The House bill is estimated to cost $2.5 trillion over the next ten years. But with new estimates suggesting the House version of the bill will actually add $3.8 trillion to the US deficit and Moody’s recent downgrade of US debt, senators are privately suggesting they intend to significantly cut the size of the package while wrestling over whether to include major tax provisions such as Section 899 which is seen as a revenge tax on foreign countries the US deems have “unfair” tax policies that discriminate against US businesses and investor.  Foreign investment firms operating in the US have already swung into action, lobbying furiously against the provision, saying if the provision is included in a final bill, it will drive them out of the US. 

Currently, by our count, there are at least five Republican senators prepared to vote against the current version of the overall package, enough to block the bill from moving forward.  We expect weeks, if not months, of negotiations between Senate Republicans, President Trump, and House Republicans as they attempt to finalize a comprehensive agreement.

Looking at the global economic radar screen, the European Central Bank (ECB) meets this week to consider interest rates. Market consensus suggests the ECB will cut rates another 25 basis points, bringing rates down 2%.

Elsewhere in Europe, the Eurozone reports May CPI prints on Tuesday while Germany reports factory orders, industrial production, and their trade balance.  France also reports industrial production and their trade balance this week, too. 

Turning to Asia, Japan will be releasing wage data and the Q1 Ministry of Finance Corporate Survey.  China releases May PMIs and the Caixin indices this week. 

And bringing it back to the US, jobs reports are out Friday after the JOLTS report comes out Tuesday and the ADP report comes out on Wednesday.  Also, this week, May ISMs (manufacturing and services) are out.  And markets are going to be listening to Fed Chair Jay Powell when he gives remarks Monday at the Fed’s 75th International Finance Conference, following Powell’s face-to-face meeting with President Trump this past week.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, June 01, 2025

Global

·       OPEC+ meeting takes place to review market conditions and oil prices.

·       Today is the first day of summer in the Northern Hemisphere.  It is also the official first day of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Mexico holds judicial elections. Voters for the first time will vote to elect all nine members of the Supreme Court, tow magistrates of the Superior Chamber of the Electoral Tribunal of the Federal Judiciary, 15 magistrates of the Regional Chambers of Electoral Tribunal, five members of the Judicial Disciplinary Tribunal, 464 circuit court magistrates, and 386 district court judges.   The vote comes after a highly controversial law was passed in 2024 by the Mexican parliament to move to judicial elections.  Critics argue the law politicizes the judicial system and opens the door to massive corruption and influence by the drug cartels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will give a speech on the economic outlook at the 2025 Bank of Korea International Conference: Structural Shifts and Monetary Policy, Seoul, Republic of Korea.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Poland holds the second round of presidential elections.

·       Croatia holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Madaraka Day, celebrating the Republic of Kenya and when it gained self-rule in 1963.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 2, 2025

Global

·       At the UN, there will be a Plenary Meeting of the General Assembly for the Election of the President of the General Assembly for its Eightieth Session.  Former German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is the leading contender for the post.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney joins the elected heads of the countries’ provinces at the Meeting of First Ministers in Saskatoon.

·       The US Congress returns from a week off for Memorial Day. The US Senate will begin considering the Reconciliation bill (tax and 2025 budget) passed two weeks ago by the House of Representatives.

·       The US-China de minimus rate is set to increase to 54 percent.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        The Federal Reserve’s 75th Anniversary International Finance Conference will be held at the Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C.   Fed Chair Jay Powell will give opening remarks at 1:00 p.m.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Peter McColough Series on International Economics: A Conversation With Lisa D. Cook in New York.

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan participates in moderated conversation before the Eleventh District Banking Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the 2025 Quad Cities Business Journal Mid-Year Economic Review.

·       Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)/ Business Confidence (May)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (April)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China celebrates the Dragon Boat Festival. Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (May)/ Commodity Prices (May)/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (May)

·       Japan Capital Spending Q1/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Import/ Export/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Tourist Arrivals (April)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (April)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU-US justice and Home Affairs Ministerial meeting begins in Warsaw, Poland and runs through Wednesday.

·       The UK Government will publish its strategic defense review.  Defense Minister John Healy has said the report will “send a message to Moscow” over Russia’s aggression not only against Ukraine but other western nations including cyber-attacks on the UK military networks.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will visit Vilnius, Lithuania and participate in the Vilnius Summit with B9 (Baltic 9) and Nordic countries.

·       The UK observes the June Bank Holiday -formerly known as White Monday.  Banks and markets are closed.

·       The 9th Annual Austrian World Summit begins in Vienna, Austria. The event is organized by the Schwarzenegger Climate Initiative, a body created by the Austrian-American actor Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a video message at the Conférence - REF 157: "Femmes et finance" organized by Association Europe-Finances-Régulations in Paris, France.

·       Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann joins a fireside chat at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors 75th International Finance Anniversary Conference in Washington, D.C.

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (April)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Spain Tourist Arrivals (April)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May)/ New Car Sales (May)

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Prel (May)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May)/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (April)/ Mortgage Lending and Approvals (April)/ M4 Money Supply (April)/ Net Lending to Individuals (April)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Nationwide Housing Prices (May)

·       Serbia GDP Growth Rate Q1

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (May)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (May)

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)/ M2 Money Supply (April)

Tuesday, June 3, 2025

Global

·       At the UN, there will be a plenary meeting for the election of non-permanent members of the Security Council.  This includes two seats from Africa (DRC and Liberia), one from Asia (Bahrain), one from Latin America, and one from Eastern Europe (Latvia or Montenegro).

·       The 11th BRICS Parliamentary Forum will be held through Thursday at the Congresso Nacional in Brasilia, Brazil.

·       The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Ministerial Council meets in Paris, France.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. and Japanese trade envoys may hold their fifth round of trade talks on the sidelines of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Ministerial Council in Paris, France, through June 4.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the 2025 Corridor Business Journal Mid-Year Economic Review.

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan gives opening remarks and moderates a discussion before a Fed Listens roundtable with El Paso community leaders.

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (May)/ Industrial Production (April)

·       USA Redbook (May/31)/ JOLTs Job Openings & Quits (April)/ Factory Orders (April)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (June)/ Fed Goolsbee Speech/ Fed Logan Speech/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/30)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (May)/ Total Vehicle Sales (May)

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (May)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea holds presidential elections.  The snap elections were called after six months of confusing and often chaotic rule following the impeachment of then-President Yoon Suk Yeol after he declared martial law.   Polls show left-wing candidate Lee Jae-myung has a comfortable lead to become the next president.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda gives a speech at the Naigai Josei Chosa Kai meeting in Japan.

·       Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida will speak at the Society of Monetary Economics in Tokyo.

·       Sarah Hunter, assistant governor (economic) at the Reserve Bank of Australia gives a keynote speech at the Economic Society of Australia Queensland Business Lunch in Brisbane.

·       New Zealand Import Prices Q1/ Export Prices Q1/ Terms of Trade Q1/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (June/03)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (May)

·       Australia RBA Meeting Minutes/ Current Account Q1/ Company Gross Profits Q1/ Business Inventories Q1/ Net Exports Contribution to GDP Q1

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (May)/ Wholesale Prices (May)/ Balance of Trade (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian and Ukrainian delegations are expected to meet in Istanbul, Turkey.

·        Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will meet with French President Emmanuel Macron in Rome, Italy. 

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergie Lavrov hosts the Government Commission on Compatriots Living Abroad (GCCLA) meeting in Moscow.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden and rate-setters Catherine Mann and Swati Dhingra will appear in front of Parliament’s Treasury Committee.

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Romania PPI (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (May)

·       France Budget Balance (April)

·       Slovakia Real Wages Q1

·       Spain Unemployment Change (May)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (May)/ PPI (May)

·       Italy Unemployment Rate (April)/ New Car Registrations (May)

·       Euro Area Inflation Rate (May)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ CPI Flash (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Syria is expected to re-open its stock market.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (May)

·       Jordan PPI (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (May)

·       South Africa GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q1

Wednesday, June 4, 2025

Global

·       At the UN,  there will be a Plenary Meeting of the General Assembly for the Election of members of the Economic and Social Council.

·       The BRICS Counter Terrorism Working Group meets in Brasilia, Brazil.

·       The Hajj Pilgrimage begins in Saudi Arabia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The 2nd Round of the US – Cambodia trade talks take place in Washington, D.C.

·       The Bloomberg Tech Summit takes place in San Francisco, California.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The US Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book.

·       The Bank of Canada meets to decide interest rates and subsequent press conference.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic gives welcome and closing remarks before a Fed Listens event, “How Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Conditions Affect Individuals and Businesses"

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/30)/ ADP Employment Change (May)/ Fed Bostic Speech/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (May)/ ISM Services PMI (May)/ EIA Crude Oil and Gasoline Stocks Change (May/30)

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (March)

·       Canada Labor Productivity Q1/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (May

·       Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (May)

·       Colombia Exports (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the 26th Anniversary of the deadly crackdown on pro-democracy protesters in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (May)

·       Australia Ai Group Industry/ Construction/ Manufacturing Index (May)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q1/ GDP Chain Price Index Q1/ GDP Consumption Q1/ RBA Payments System Board Meeting

·       Japan Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMI (May)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (May)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Business Confidence (May)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Commission is expected to publish a report recommending Bulgaria be allowed to adopt the Euro.

·       The 9th Meeting of the EU-Republic of Moldova Association Council takes place in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives a keynote speech at the 2025 Harvard Law School/Program on International Financial Systems Europe-U.S. Symposium in Madrid, Spain.

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (May)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ Business Confidence (May)/ Corporate Profits (March)/ Real Wage Growth (March)/ Retail Sales (April)/ GDP (April)

·       Spain Industrial Production (April)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (May)

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (May)

·       France HCOB Composite & Services PMI (May)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (May)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (May)/ ECB Machado Speech

·       Great Britain S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (May)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       A Turkish Commission of the ruling Justice and Development Party begins drafting a new constitution.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (May)/ Business Confidence Q2

Thursday, June 5, 2025

Global

·       The World Energy Investment 2025 report is published by the International Energy Agency.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler will give a speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy at the Economic Club of New York Luncheon in New York.

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker speaks on the economic outlook before the Philadelphia Council for Business Economics.

·       Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeff Schmid speaks on banking policy at an event hosted by the Kansas City Fed.

·       Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki speaks at C.D. Howe Institute in Toronto.

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (May)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Initial Jobless Claims (May/31)/ Nonfarm Productivity Q1/ Unit Labour Costs Q1/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (May/30)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (June/05)/Fed Balance Sheet (June/04)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Ivey PMI s.a (May)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (May)

·       Brazil Balance of Trade (May)

·       Colombia PPI (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The India-Central Asia Business Forum begins in New Delhi, India.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado participates on a panel discussion at European Forum of Deposit Insurers (EFDI) International Conference “Embracing the Future on Solid Grounds: Reinforcing Financial Stability” in Madrid, Spain.

·       South Korea Current Account (April)

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (April)/ Overtime Pay (April)/ Foreign Bond Investment (May/31)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (May/31)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (May)

·       Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       China Caixin Composite & Services PMI (May)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (May)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (April)

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision/ PPI (May)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (May)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Defense Ministers (the Ukraine Defense Contact Group) will meet in Brussels to discuss the current situation in Ukraine.

· The EU Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council (Transport & Telecommunications) meets in Brussels through June 6.

§  The CBI National Business Dinner is held in London, traditionally addressed by a senior member of the government

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank meets to decide interest rates and press conference.

·       The ECONDAT 2025 spring meeting, hosted by the Bank of England, begins its two-day spring meeting at King’s College London. The conference brings together central bankers and researchers will gather to discuss the economics involved in non-traditional data and analytical tools.

·       OE Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden speaks on a webinar hosted by Odgers. The webinar is titled “H2 economic trends.”

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Germany Factory Orders (April)/ HCOB Construction PMI (May)/ New Car Registrations (May)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (May)/ PPI (April)/ Deposit Facility Rate/ Marginal Lending Rate/

·       France HCOB Construction PMI (May)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (May)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (May)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (May)

·       Ireland Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ GNP Q1/ Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Serbia PPI (May)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/30)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (April)/ Private Bank Lending (April)

·       Jordan Unemployment Rate Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Burundi holds parliamentary and local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Current Account Q1

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (May)

Friday, June 6, 2025

Global

·       Eid al-Adha, the second of the two main festivals in Islam, begins this evening. Celebrations and observances are generally carried forward to the three following days, known as the Tashreeq days.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (Lula) travels to France through June 7 for a State Visit.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil PPI (April)/ Car Production (May)/ New Car Registrations (May)

·       Chile Inflation Rate (May)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (May)/ Participation Rate (May)

·       USA Unemployment Rate (May)/ Participation Rate (May)/ Government and Manufacturing and Nonfarm Payrolls (May)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (May)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (June/06)/ Consumer Credit Change (April)/ Used Car Prices (May)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (May)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Japanese startup space company, ispace, will make a second attempt at a soft landing on the moon, aiming to become the first Asian private company to achieve such a feat. Its first attempt, in April 2023, ended with the lander crashing into the lunar surface..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Household Spending (April)/ Coincident Index Prel (April)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (April)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Consumer Confidence Q1/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       Australia Building Permits (April)/ Private House Approvals (April)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (May)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (May)/ Foreign Direct Investment (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Tourist Arrivals (May)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ Bank Loan Growth (May/23)/ Deposit Growth (May/23)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/30)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Mario Centeno speaks about the outlook for the Portuguese economy in Lisbon.

· European Central Bank Board Member Robert Holzmann speaks at the presentation of the Austrian National Bank’s updated forecasts.

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Industrial Production (April)

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (May)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (May)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Current Account (April)/ New Car Registrations (May)

·       Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       Euro Area ECB Machado Speech/ Employment Change Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (April)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)/ Vehicle Sales (May)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Saturday, June 7, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto is scheduled to visit Moscow for a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. He will also attend the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum as a keynote speaker.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron is scheduled to visit Monaco for meetings.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a keynote speech at the Blue Economy & Finance Forum in Monaco.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates on a panel discussion at 31st Dubrovnik Economic Conference of Hravtska Narodna Banka in Dubrovnik, Croatia.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 8, 2025

Global

·       Today is Pentecost, a major feast in the Christian church marking the 50th day of Easter.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Italy is set to hold a Constitutional referendum and run-off elections for regional elective office through Monday.  The Constitutional referendum concerns changes to the law on the acquisition of Italian citizenship for foreign residents and repeals some provision on employment as passed by a 2025 Jobs Act law.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (May)/ Tourist Arrivals (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Poland’s Holds Presidential Run-Off Election, Canada’s New Parliament Convenes, President Trump Bashes President Putin and Holds Off On EU Tariffs, and Markets Look Toward FOMC Minutes and Key Inflation Data

May 25 - June 1, 2025

It may be Memorial Day in the US and a Bank Holiday in the UK, but the otherwise shortened week is still going to be a very busy one. 

First, we would point to the upcoming Polish Presidential run-off elections this coming Sunday.  Polls are extremely close, and the two candidates have very different outlooks for the future of Poland.  Nationalist candidate Karol Nawrocki is facing off against pro-EU Warsaw May Rafal Trzaskowski who won a narrow victory in the first round.  2/5th of voters who voted for other candidates will decide the race which is seen as being important not only for Poland but for the EU.  Nawrocki opposes Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s reform agenda, which is strongly pro-EU and if he wins, it could cause the collapse of the Tusk coalition government.

Also this week, the new Canadian Parliament and governing coalition of Prime Minister Mark Carney begins.  The Parliament will convene with a historic – first time in more than 50 years – address by the reigning British Monarch, King Charles.  The King’s message is seen as being aimed as much at President Trump as Canada and will likely be an appeal for unity.

Here in the U.S., Congress is out of session this week for the Memorial Day holiday, but Washington will still be quite busy.  President Trump surprised many with withering criticism on Sunday of Russian President Vladimir Putin for massive new attacks on Ukraine.  Trump called Putin “crazy” and renewed calls for a ceasefire, or he would impose tough new sanctions on Russia. 

Meanwhile on the trade front, President Trump, after a phone call with European Union President Ursula von der Leyden, said he would hold off on new 50% tariffs on the EU until July 9th, citing “a very good conversation.”  

Meanwhile, Japanese negotiators will be meeting with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week to try to hammer out a deal.  Markets were surprised on Friday when President Trump announced his support for Nippon Steel’s bid to acquire U.S. Steel – which he previously had opposed.  But no one knows the details of the deal and how it will be structured other than President Trump calling it “a partnership” in a Truth Social posting.

Adding to the U.S.-Japan trade talks was the surprise proposal by SoftBank Founder Masayoshi Son for the creation of a joint U.S.-Japan sovereign wealth fund to make large investments in tech and infrastructure in the U.S.  This may be an early indicator of not only where a trade deal may come out but also go in some way to the structure of the Nippon-U.S. Steel deal.

Asia is going to have a busy week with three big events taking place this week.  First, ASEAN leaders will gather in Malaysia to talk about U.S. tariffs and the future of trade and security in the region.  Second, the Shangri-la Dialogue – a large security conference – is being held in Singapore.  Military leaders and defense ministers – including U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth – will be attend.  Hegseth’s speech will likely be an important marker for the future of U.S. security policy in the region.

The third big event is French President Emmanual Macron’s tour of the region starting with a visit to Vietnam and then on to Indonesia and Singapore.  The visit is seen as both France’s and the EU’s increased engagement and focus on Asia and Asian security.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, in the US markets are focused on the PCE print on Friday as an indicator of where inflation is headed and how the Federal Reserve will respond.  Also out this week are trade figures on Friday, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence report on Tuesday and durable goods orders on Tuesday.  Also out this week is the Fed’s Open Market Meeting minutes.

In Europe, CPI prints are the big news of the week.  Germany, Italy, and Spain all report CPI on Friday.  Consumer confidence indices are out in Germany this week, too.  

Turning to Asia, markets are looking at the Japan’s CPI figures being released this week as well as consumer confidence figures on Thursday.  And China’s industrial profit figures are out this week, as well. 

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, May 25, 2025

Global

·       The World Health Assembly will convene its 78th session in Geneva, Switzerland, through May 27.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In Venezuela, parliamentary and regional elections are scheduled to be held.  However, the elections are widely anticipated to be rigged to keep the regime of President Maduro further entrenched in power.

·       The International Chamber of Commerce arbitration hearing is held today to decide a dispute between ExxonMobil and Chevron over ownership of an enormous oil project in Guyana’s Stakbroek oilfield.  The value of the project is estimated to be as much as $1 trillion.

·       Suriname holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell gives the Baccalaureate speech at the Princeton University graduation.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       ASEAN Foreign Ministers will meet in Kuala Lumpur.

·       French President Emmanual Macron begins his Southeast Asia tour, arriving in Vietnam on Sunday evening. Macron is scheduled to meet with Communist Party Chief To Lam and President Luong Cuong and witness a signing ceremony for bilateral agreements. He will then go to Jakarta to meet with Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, followed by a trip to Singapore to deliver a keynote speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue on Friday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte, will take part in the 2025 Spring Session of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly (NPA) in Dayton, United States..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel celebrates Jerusalem Day – a national holiday – marking the day on the Hebrew calendar when the city was unified under Israeli rule after the 1967 War.

·       Iraq's electoral commission will open registration ahead of the Nov. 11 parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 26, 2025

Global

·       The BRICS 4th Working Group Meeting on new and Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency meets in Tehran, Iran through May 28.

·       Today is an official holiday at the United Nations.  The Headquarters are closed.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Guyana Independence  Day, celebrating when the country declared its independence from Great Britain in 1966.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (May)/ Current Account (April)/ Foreign Direct Investment (April)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (April)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The ASEAN Summit begins in Malaysia and runs through Wednesday.  Southeast Asian leaders will seek to strengthen the bloc's role as a stabilizing force in the region and address the situation in Myanmar. Following this, Malaysia – which is chairing this year’s Summit - will host the inaugural ASEAN-Gulf Cooperation Council-China Summit, where leaders are expected to address growing U.S. tariff pressures, deepening geopolitical rifts and regional crises..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Thailand Import/ Export/ Balance of Trade (April)/ New Car Sales (April)

·       Japan Coincident Index Final (March)/ Leading Economic Index Final (March)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (April)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Newly elected German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will meet with Nordic prime ministers in southwest Finland.

·       Nicușor Dan, Romania’s president-elect, is expected to be sworn in at a ceremony in the nation’s parliament building in Bucharest.

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels.  The ministers are expected to discuss the US tariff situation.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Development) meets in Brussels.  The meeting is the first the first one for the high representative Kaja Kallas, will dedicate the first session to financing for development.

·       Ministers will meet one month prior to the 4th International Conference on Financing for Development (FfD4), scheduled for 30 June – 3 July 2025 in Seville, Spain. This conference will focus on new and emerging issues, the pressing need to fully implement the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and the ongoing reform of the international financial system.  The Council will also address EU-Africa relations as a follow-up to the 3rd EU-African Union ministerial meeting on May 22.

·       Today is Georgia Independence Day, celebrating when the country broke free from the Soviet Union.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in "Spotlight on Christine Lagarde: Europe's Role in a Fragmented World" event organized by Hertie School/Jacques Delors Centre in Berlin, Germany.

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls Q1

·       Spain PPI (April)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (April)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (May)

·       Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Pakistani Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif will visit Iran, Turkey, and Azerbaijan through May 29.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (March)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Composite Economic Index (April)/ Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (April)/ Private Bank Lending (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The African Development Bank’s annual meetings take place in Abidjan, with a new president due to be announced on Thursday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q1

Tuesday, May 27, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold elections to fill the vacancy in the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

·       in Copenhagen, Denmark, the Sixth Global Climate and SDG Synergies Conference will be co-convened by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) and UNFCCC. Hosted by the Government of Denmark, the conference will continue until 28 May.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       King Charles addresses the state opening of parliament in Ottawa, the first time a ruling monarch has conducted this duty in person in 50 years.

·       Today is Memorial Day in the United States.  Financial markets are closed, and the US Congress is out of session this week.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari speaks and participates in a policy panel before the Bank of Japan Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies Conference.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams participates in moderated discussion panel before the Bank of Japan Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies Conference.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin will be interviewed on Bloomberg Television.

·       USA Durable Goods Orders (April)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (March)/ House Price Index (March)/ CB Consumer Confidence (May)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (May)/ Money Supply (April)

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (May)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (April)

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will be hosting 11 of his counterparts from China-friendly Pacific countries in Xiamen for the third China-Pacific Island Countries Foreign Ministers' Meeting (as Beijing aims to bolster its relationships with Pacific nations and deepen its influence in the region. This marks the first in-person gathering of its kind in China, following an online meeting and another held in Suva, Fiji.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (May)

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (April)

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss the carbon border adjustment mechanism and preparations for the June European Council, and an Article 7 procedure concerning Hungary (the Treaty on European Union’s Article 7 allows the suspension of certain rights from a member state.  The EU Commission has demanded that Hungary withdraw a draft transparency law aimed at limiting foreign funding of NGO’s and media organizations in the country. The EU is now taking up Article 7 against Hungary to try and force the issue).  The Council will also take up Spain’s request to include Catalan, Basque, and Galician in regulation No 1/1958 which governs the EU’s language regime. 

·       Today is the Late May Bank Holiday in the UK.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Union New Car Registrations (April)

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (April)

·       France Inflation Rate (May)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (April)/ Jobseekers Total (April)

·       Great Britain BoE Hauser Speech/ CBI Distributive Trades (May)

·       Euro Area Economic Sentiment (May)/ Consumer Confidence Final (May)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (May)/ Industrial Sentiment (May)/ Selling Price Expectations (May)/ Services Sentiment (May)

·       Ireland Average Weekly Earnings Q1

·       Spain Business Confidence (May)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (May)/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

·       Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will visit Oman through May 28.  It is expected they will discuss the ongoing nuclear talks with the U.S. as well as other regional issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (March)

Wednesday, May 28, 2025

Global

·       The joint OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial monitoring committee meeting takes place in Vienna.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations.

·       The BRIC High Level Meeting on Climate Change and Sustainable Development meets in Brasilia, Brazil.

·       The BRICS 2nd Rapid Security Channel Meeting takes place at the Central Bank of Brazil in Sao Paolo, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the end of the wind-down period for Chevron’s and other western oil companies to drill for oil in Venezuela.

·       U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance speaks at the Bitcoin 2025 conference in Las Vegas.

·       EU President António Costa meets with Brazilian President Lula in Brasilia, Brazil.

·       Unions in Colombia are set to go on strike through May 29 over a government sponsored labor referendum.

·       The Caribbean Island of St. Martin celebrates Abolition Day, marking when slavery was abolished in 1848.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve’s FMOC Minutes Released

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in conversation and Q&A at Keio University.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/23)/ MBA Purchase Index (May/23)/ Redbook (May/24)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (May)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (May)API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/23)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (April)

·       Brazil Net Payrolls (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China will launch the Tianwen-2 asteroid sampling mission.

·       Today is the Founding of the Democratic Republic of Azerbaijan Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (May)

·       Australia Construction Work Done Q1/ Monthly CPI Indicator (April)

·       New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision/ RBNZ Press Conference

·       Malaysia PPI (April)

·       Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       India Industrial Production (April)/ Manufacturing Production (April)/ M3 Money Supply (May/16)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov meets with Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan in Moscow.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyden meets with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill gives a speech at the Oesterreichische Nationalbank and SUERF Annual Economics Conference 2025 in Vienna, Austria.

·       Germany Import Prices (April)/ Unemployment Rate and Change (May)/ Unemployed Persons (May)

·       France GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Household Consumption (April)/ Non-Farm Payrolls Q1/ PPI (April)

·       Turkey Economic Confidence Index (May)

·       Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (May)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (April)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (April)

·       Great Britain BoE Pill Speech

·       Russia Industrial Production (April)/ PPI (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the 600th day since of the Hamas-Israel Conflict after Hamas launched its attack on civilians in Israel on October 7, 2023.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (April)/ Private Bank Lending (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Africa Tax Symposium takes place in Kigali.

·       The Africa Internet Governance Forum will take place in Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania through May 31.

·       Today is national Day of Ethiopia, celebrating when the military regime of Megishu Haile Mariam was ended in 1991.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, May 29, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on South Sudan sanctions and on Libya. This will be followed by consultations on 1718 Committee.

·       Today is Ascencion Day in the Christian world, marking 40 days after Easter and the Ascension of Jesus into Heaven.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governors Adriana Kugler gives a speech at the 5th Annual Federal Reserve Board Macro-Finance Workshop (Virtual)

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin participates in a fireside chat before the Housing Partnership Network.

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in fireside chat before the Oakland Rotary Club.

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan gives opening remarks and participates in moderated conversation before the Greater Waco Member Appreciation event.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the 2025 Mackinac Policy Conference hosted by the Detroit Regional Chamber.

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (May)/ Bank Lending (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Canada Average Weekly Earnings (March)/ Current Account Q1

·       USA GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Corporate Profits Q1/ Initial Jobless Claims (May/24)/ PCE Prices Q1/ Real Consumer Spending Q1/ Pending Home Sales (April)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (May/23)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/29)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (May/23)/ Fed Kugler Speech/ Fed Balance Sheet (May/28)

·       Chile Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Mexico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nikkei will host the 30th Future of Asia forum, its flagship annual conference, in Tokyo over two consecutive days. This year's main theme is "Asia's challenge in a turbulent world." Political leaders set to attend the event include Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet, Chief Adviser of Bangladesh Muhammad Yunus, Laotian President Thongloun Sisoulith and Palauan President Surangel Whipps Jr.

·       Early voting begins in South Korea in advance of the June 3 snap elections for president. Voters will be choosing a replacement for impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (May/24)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (May/24)/ Consumer Confidence (May)

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (May)

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       Australia Building Capital Expenditure Q1/ Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure Q1/ Private Capital Expenditure Q1

·       Singapore Import Prices (April)/ Export Prices (April)/ PPI (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (April)

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (May)/ Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Spain Retail Sales (April)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/23)

·       Italy Business Confidence (May)/ Consumer Confidence (May)/ Industrial Sales (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (April)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (May)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (April)

Friday, May 30, 2025

Global

·       Today is the International Day of the Potato.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The third round of U.S.-Japan trade talks will commence in Washington, D.C.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in panel before virtual Reagan National Economic Forum.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic gives welcome remarks before the Council for Economic Education's 2025 National Economics Challenge.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in moderated Q&A before “The Interview Show with Mark Bazer"

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (April)/ Nominal Budget Balance (April)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (April)/ Fiscal Balance (April)

·       Canada GDP Growth Rate Annualized Q1/ Budget Balance (March)

·       USA Core PCE Price Index (April)/ Personal Income and Spending (April)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (April)/ PCE Price Index (April)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (April)/ Wholesale Inventories (April)/ Chicago PMI (May)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (May)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (May/30)

·       Chile Copper Production (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Manufacturing Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (April)/ Cement Production (April)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Shangri-la Dialogue, sponsored by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, begins in Singapore.  The conference hosts top military brass from around the world, which will stretch over the weekend, with issues ranging from the Ukraine war to Israel's actions in the Gaza Strip set to be discussed at the conference.  US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth will attend and speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (May)/ Building Permits (April)

·       South Korea Industrial Production (April)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (April)/ Jobs/applications ratio (April)/ Tokyo Core CPI (May)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Housing Starts (April)/ Construction Orders (April)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ PPI (April)

·       Australia Building Permits (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Housing Credit (April)/ Private House Approvals (April)/ Private Sector Credit (April)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (April)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (April)/ Current Account (April)/ Private Consumption and Investment (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (April)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (May)/ Balance of Trade (April)/ PPI (April)

·       India GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Government Budget Value (March)/ Government Budget Value (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/23) 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Car Production (April)/ Nationwide Housing Prices (May)

·       Germany Retail Sales (April)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (May)/ Bavaria CPI (May)/ Brandenburg CPI (May)/ Hesse CPI (May)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (May)/ Saxony CPI (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)

·       Hungary PPI (April)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (May)/ Current Account (March)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (May)

·       Turkey GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ Participation Rate (April)/ Financial Stability Report

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies and Households (April)/ M3 Money Supply (April)

·       Italy GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Inflation Rate (May)/ PPI (April)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (May)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (May)

·       Greece PPI (April)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ Total Credit (April)

·       Ireland Construction Output Q1/ Inflation Rate (May)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Unemployment Rate Q1

·       Ukraine Current Account (April)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (April)/ Private Sector Credit (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Budget Balance (April)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (May)

Saturday, May 31, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China NBS Manufacturing/ Non-Manufacturing/ General PMI (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Poland Presidential Election - 2nd round

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 01, 2025 

Global

·       OPEC+ meeting takes place to review market conditions and oil prices.

·       Today is the first day of summer in the Northern Hemisphere.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Mexico holds judicial elections. Voters for the first time will vote to elect all nine members of the Supreme Court, tow magistrates of the Superior Chamber of the Electoral Tribunal of the Federal Judiciary, 15 magistrates of the Regional Chambers of Electoral Tribunal, 5 members of the Judicial Disciplinary Tribunal, 464 circuit court magistrates, and 386 district court judges.   The vote comes after a highly controversial law was passed in 2024 by the Mexican parliament to move to judicial elections.  Critics argue the law politicizes the judicial system and opens the door to massive corruption and influence to the drug cartels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Poland holds the second round of presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Madaraka Day, celebrating the Republic of Kenya and when it gained self-rule in 1963.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Trade Talks and the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bankers Meeting Dominate the Week, Trump to Speak to Putin Again on Ukraine Ceasefire, and More Trade Negotiations in Washington This Week

May 18 - 25, 2025

Trade will continue to dominate geopolitics this coming week, both in the US and in Europe.  First, markets will watch closely as UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer holds a high-stakes summit with EU leaders in London on Monday, focused on improving trade as well as locking in ways to work together on mutual defense development.  Ultimately, the talks are a shift back from Brexit and, if successful, will be the third major trade deal locked in by Starmer in a month (the other two being with India and the US).

In the US, senior trade officials from India and Japan will be meeting with senior Trump trade officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, in an effort to reach new trade agreements.  For the Japanese, this coming week is important for another reason:  The US Treasury Department’s Committee for Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) is expected to present President Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent with a new review of Nippon Steel’s $15 billion bid for US Steel, a deal blocked by then-President Joe Biden and initially opposed by then-candidate Donald Trump.  However, since then, Trump has said he is open to finding a deal for Nippon Steel to own a large–but–not–controlling stake in US Steel.

Sticking with trade for a moment, the other big talks this week come with the visit of South African President Cyril Ramaphosa for meetings with President Trump.  The primary purpose of the meeting is an attempt to reset the relationship between the two countries, which have soured in recent months.  But both leaders will discuss trade (trade between the US and South Africa came in at $21 billion in 2024).  However, the Trump Administration has vocally condemned South Africa’s land reform policy and efforts to get the International Court of Justice to bring war crime charges against Israel.   Last week, a group of white South Africans were granted refugee status in the US by the Trump Administration. 

We will be watching closely for the read-out of President Trump’s expected telephone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin this week.  Trump, who is reportedly getting frustrated with Putin’s lack of seriousness about moving toward a cease-fire in Ukraine, is expected to press the Russian president to move on a deal.  However, Russian officials in Moscow are letting it be known in advance of the call that Putin is going to present a new list of demands to Trump for a cease-fire to be considered – a move that is likely to further frustrate Trump.

Turning to Europe, EU foreign ministers will meet on Tuesday to discuss Israel and Gaza.  Specifically, EU trade ties with Israel are being reviewed as there has been a free trade agreement (FTA) in place for more than 25 years that requires Israel to respect “human rights and democratic principles” – something the Netherlands is asking the EU to review due to ongoing military action in Gaza. 

Also, there was an important election in Europe this weekend: Romania held a run-off election between centrist Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan and right-wing/pro-Russia nationalist George Simion.  Simion spoke of ending support for Ukraine and opposing NATO support for Ukraine and for confronting Russian aggression in general.  As of late Sunday night, it appears Dan has won a surprise victory.

We will be watching elections this coming week in Venezuela and Suriname.  By all appearances, the parliamentary elections being held in Venezuela next Sunday are already rigged to further entrench dictator Nicholas Maduro and his regime in power.  Opposition leader Maria Conrina Machado has called for a boycott by voters.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, the big event is the G& finance ministers and central bankers meeting in Banff, Canada.  Trade and tariffs are set to be the primary agenda item.  But support for Ukraine will also be up there as a major issue, too.

In terms of major reports this week, markets are anxiously watching for Thursday’s release of global flash PMIs to get a fuller sense of the impact of the Trump tariffs on manufacturing globally.

Also, next week, central banks and central bank governors will be busy.  The Reserve Bank of Australia decides on interest rates on Tuesday.  There are a slew of central bankers giving speeches in the US and elsewhere, and we will be hearing from central bank chiefs at the G7 meetings.  The European Central Bank releases minutes from their April meeting, and the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank holds their annual financial markets conference Monday through Wednesday, and there will be a number of US regional Fed presidents speaking there, too.

Other major data reports out this week include the UK inflation print, Germany’s Ifo survey, and France’s business confidence index. 

In Asia, China releases its April industrial production and retail sales on Monday, while Japan’s trade balance is out on Wednesday, and the national CPI is out on Friday.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week: 

Sunday, May 18, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       House Republicans seek to find agreement tonight on the Reconciliation bill in order to bring it to floor for a vote this coming week before the Memorial Day recess week.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Poland holds the first round of elections for their presidency.

·       Portugal holds parliamentary elections.

·       Romania holds the 2nd round of elections for its presidency.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Morocco will host the 21st annual African Lion military exercises in conjunction with more than 30 other countries, including the United States, in Agadir, Tan-Tan, Tiznit, Tafraout, Kenitra and Ben Guerir through May 23.

·       The IMF Middle East and north Africa research conference, co-organized by the IMF and the Onsi Sawiris School of Business at The American University in Cairo, begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Q1 GDP.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 19, 2025

Global

· The G7 Meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors will gather in Banff, Canada, for meetings through Thursday.

·       The 78th World Health Assembly begins in Geneva and runs through May 27.

·       The BRICS Energy Ministerial Meeting is held in Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump is expected to have a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin over efforts to end the Ukraine War.  Putin is expected to deliver a new set of demands to Trump as conditions for a ceasefire.

·       South African President Cyril Ramaphosa will visit the United States through May 22 for meetings with President Trump.  Ramaphosa and Trump are seeking to reset the US-South African relationship as well as negotiate a trade deal.

·       US-Japan trade negotiators meet again seeking to find agreement on a trade deal.

·       US-Indian trade negotiators meet in Washington seeking to find agreement on a trade deal.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Phillip Jefferson speaks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Financial Markets Conference in Fernandina Beach, Florida.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams speaks on the US economic outlook at the Mortgage Bankers Association Secondary and Capital Markets Conference in New York.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic gives welcome remarks before the 2025 Financial Markets Conference -"Financial Intermediation In Transition: How Will Policy Adapt?" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan gives prepared remarks during “Policy Session 2: The Increasing Role of Nonbank Institutions in the Treasury and Money Markets" at the 2025 Financial Markets Conference -"Financial Intermediation In Transition: How Will Policy Adapt?" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (March)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Chile Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       USA Fed Bostic Speech/ / CB Leading Index (April)/ Fed Logan Speech/ Fed Kashkari Speech

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (March)/ Imports (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China will conduct live-fire drills off the coast of Hong Kong through May 20.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (April)/ PPI Input & Output Q1

·       China House Price Index (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Thailand GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Japan Tertiary Industry Index (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Prime Minister hosts the UK-EU Summit in London.  Britain is hoping to reset a deal with the EU would boost defense and security cooperation, mutual immigration issues, and food regulation.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (April)/ Current Account (March)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (March)

·       Euro Area CPI Final (April)/ Inflation Rate (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, May 20, 2025

Global

· The G7 Meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors convenes in Banff, Canada.

·        The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Maintenance of international peace and security: maritime security. The Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler gives the commencement address at the Spring 2025 Berkeley Economics Commencement Ceremony (Virtual).

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on growth in rural communities before the “Elevating What Works" 2025 Investing in Rural America Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic gives welcome back remarks before the 2025 Financial Markets Conference -"Financial Intermediation In Transition: How Will Policy Adapt?" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy in a moderated conversation before the Economic Club of Minnesota.

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly and Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack give keynotes, and Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic moderates a discussion before the 2025 Financial Markets Conference -"Financial Intermediation In Transition: How Will Policy Adapt?" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

·       Canada Inflation Rate (April)/ CPI Median (April)

·       USA Redbook (May/17)/ / Fed Collins Speech/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/16)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (April)

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Computex Taipei, one of the biggest tech events in the world, begins in Taipei.

·       China may conduct military drills around Taiwan surrounding the one-year anniversary of President William Lai coming to office.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (May)

·       Indonesia Current Account Q1/ Loan Growth (April)/ Infrastructure Output (April)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision/ RBA Press Conference

·       Taiwan Export Orders (April)/ Current Account Q1

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (April)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (May/20)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Belgium, EU foreign and defense ministers – the Foreign Affairs Council and Foreign Affairs Council (Defense) – will gather to meet in Brussles to discuss mutual security issues and the status of the Ukraine-Russia peace talks.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Ministers responsible for cohesion policy in Warsaw through May 21.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill gives a speech at the Barclays briefing in London.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Claudia Buch participates in a fireside chat at The Association for Financial Markets in Europe's 5th Annual European Financial Integration Conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a pre-recorded video interview during AsVis Sustainable Development Festival.

·        

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Sharon Donnery participates in a fireside chat at BPFI National Banking Conference in Dublin, Ireland.

·       Germany PPI (April)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (March)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (May)/ Central Government Debt (April)

·       Euro Area Current Account (March)/ Construction Output (March)/ Labour Cost Index Flash Q1/ ECB Donnery Speech/ ECB Cipollone Speech/ ECB Buch Speech/ Consumer Confidence Flash (May)

·       Italy Construction Output (March)/ Current Account (March)

·       Great Britain BoE Pill Speech

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Qatar will host the fifth Qatar Economic Forum in Doha through May 22.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Interest Rate Decision

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (April)

·       Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

·       South Africa National Budget

Wednesday, May 21, 2025

Global

·       G7 Meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors in Banff, Canada.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).

·       The International Energy Agency releases its Global Critical Minerals Outlook report.

·       The BRICS Trade Ministers meeting is held in Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Treasury Department’s Committee on Foreign Investment in the US (CFIUS) is expected to issue a new report of their review of Nippon Steel’s bid to acquire U.S. Steel.  The deal, which was blocked by former U.S. President Joe Biden, had been under review after Trump ordered a reexamination. After the committee's recommendation, Trump has 15 days to make a decision on the deal.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin participates in a “Fed Listens" event as part of the “Elevating What Works" 2025 Investing in Rural America Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/16)/ MBA Purchase Index (May/16)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (May/16)

·       Mexico Retail Sales (March)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (April)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (April)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (March)/ Leading Indicator (April)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Credit Card Spending (April)/ Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2025

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (April)/ RBA Chart Pack

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit Facility Rate (May)/ Lending Facility Rate (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 60th meeting of the European Economic Area Council will meet in Brussels.

·       The 3rd EU-African Union ministerial meeting begins in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Philip R. Lane participates as a discussant at JEEA-FBBVA Lecture on "Negative interest rates and the impact of monetary policy" in Madrid, Spain.

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (April)/ Retail Price Index (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/ ECB Financial Stability Review/ ECB Lane Speech

·       Greece Current Account (March)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (April)/ Employment Growth (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ PPI (April)

·       Slovenia PPI (April)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (May)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

Thursday, May 22, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Protection of civilians in armed conflict.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump due to hold a gala dinner for the top 220 holders of the Trump meme coin at the Trump National Golf Club just outside Washington in Northern Virginia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote before Monetary Policy Implementation Workshop: “Unwinding Large Central Bank Balance Sheets" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (May)/ PPI (April)/ Raw Materials Prices (April)/ BoC Gravelle Speech

·       Mexico Economic Activity (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (May)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (April)/ Initial Jobless Claims (May/17)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (May/17)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)/ Existing Home Sales (April)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (May/16)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing & Composite Index (May)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/22)/ Fed Balance Sheet (May/21)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (May)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Paraguay PPI (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       New Zealand’s Finance Minister Nicola Willis introduces the government’s new budget.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Board Member Asahi Noguchi will give a speech at a meeting of local business leaders in Miyazaki, Japan.

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (May)/ Machinery Orders (March)/ Foreign Bond Investment (May/17)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (May/17)/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)/ BOJ Noguchi Speech

·       Singapore GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (April)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (April)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal Market and Industry) meets in Brussels.

·       In Spain, the Parliamentary Intelligence-Security Forum opens in Madrid. The two-day event will be hosted by Spanish Senate president Pedro Rollán Ojeda.

·       In Belgium, the Brussels Economic Forum will be held. Speakers include Valdis Dombrovskis, the EU commissioner for economy and productivity and for implementation and simplification; Renault chief Luca de Meo; and Electrolux chief Yannick Fierling.

·       The 5th Accession Conference in Albania will be held in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank releases minutes from their last rate-setting meeting.

·       European Central Bank Board Executive Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a speech at the 6th International Forum Expansión “The future is decided aquí - Global Challenges for a New Era in Economics, Geopolitics, and Technology” in Madrid, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Board Executive Board Member Frank Elderson gives the dinner speech at the Naturalis Biodiversity Center on World Biodiversity Day in Leiden, Netherlands.

·       Bank of England Chief  Economist Huw Pill gives keynote speech at the Oesterreichische Nationalbank and SUERF Annual Economics Conference 2025, titled ‘Monetary policy and structural tectonic shifts’, in Vienna.

·       Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (April)/ BoE Breeden Speech/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (May)/ BoE Dhingra Speech/ BoE Pill Speech

·       France Business Confidence (May)/ Business Climate Indicator (May)/ HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (May)/ Capacity Utilization (May)/ Inflation Report/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/16)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)/ Ifo Business Climate (May)/ Ifo Current Conditions (May)/ Ifo Expectations (May)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)/ ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts/ ECB Elderson Speech/ ECB Guindos Speech

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey will conduct the international Anatolian Phoenix exercise at the 3rd Main Jet Base Command in Konya, Turkey.

·       Morocco will host the 21st annual African Lion military exercises in conjunction with more than 30 other countries, including the United States, in Agadir, Tan-Tan, Tiznit, Tafraout, Kenitra and Ben Guerir through May 23. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (March)

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, May 23, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook speaks at the Seventh Annual Women in Macro Conference, cosponsored by New York University's Graduate School of Arts and Science, New York University's Stern School of Business, and the University of Chicago's Becker Friedman Institute (Virtual)

·       Chile PPI (April)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (April)/ Current Account Q1

·       Canada Retail Sales (March)

·       USA New Home Sales (April)/ Fed Cook Speech/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (May/23)/ Building Permits Final (April)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Peru Current Account Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron will visit Vietnam through May 25.

·       In Malaysia, the ruling People's Justice Party leadership elections are set to conclude, with attention focused on the competitive race for the deputy presidency between the incumbent, Economy Minister Rafizi Ramli, and Nurul Izzah Anwar, the prime minister's daughter. The outcome will shape the party's internal dynamics ahead of Malaysia's next general election, which must be held by February 2028..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (April)

·       New Zealand Retail Sales Q1

·       Japan Inflation Rate (April)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (March)/ Leading Index (March)

·       Singapore     Inflation Rate (April)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ M2 Money Supply (April)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (May/09)/ Deposit Growth (May/09)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/16)

·       China FDI (YTD) (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Research and Space) meets in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a  lecture on "Inflation and disinflation in the euro area" at EMU Lab (European University Institute Florence) in Florence, Italy.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives the keynote speech on "Finanzielle Bildung und Geldpolitik" at the Internationaler Demokratiepreis Bonn e.V. (IDP) "Demokratie lebt vom Mitmachen" event in Bonn, Germany.

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (May)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Germany GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (April)

·       France Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Turkey Tourist Arrivals (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Lane Speech/ Negotiated Wage Growth Q1/ ECB Schnabel Speech

·       Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (April)

·       Poland M3 Money Supply (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q1

Saturday, May 24, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Ecuador’s newly re-elected President, Daniel Noboa, will be inaugurated.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Premier Li Quinag visits Indonesia for bilateral meetings.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 25, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In Venezuela, parliamentary and regional elections are scheduled to be held.  However, the elections are widely anticipated to be rigged to keep the regime of President Maduro further entrenched in power.

·       Suriname holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell gives the Baccalaureate speech at the Princeton University graduation.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       ASEAN Foreign Ministers will meet in Kuala Lumpur.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel celebrates Jerusalem Day – a national holiday – marking the day on the Hebrew calendar when the city was unified under Israeli rule after the 1967 War.

·       Iraq's electoral commission will open registration ahead of the Nov. 11 parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

President Trump Travels to the Middle East, Does the US and China Have a Trade Deal? Romania holds Contentious Presidential Run-Off Elections, and Markets Wait for Inflation Reports in the US, EU, UK, China, and Japan

May 11 - 18, 2025

It will be a busy week in the Middle East as President Trump prepares to head to Saudi Arabia, followed by the UAE and Qatar.  The President’s visits to the Gulf States are likely going to be good for US investment as the CEOs of Blackrock, Citi, Blackstone, Franklin Templeton, IBM, Qualcomm, and Alphabet (all of whom are speaking at the Saudi-US Investment Forum on May 13). 

Also accompanying the President will be the White House AI and Crypto Czar Davd Sacks as there is going to be significant discussion of cryptocurrencies. Interestingly, Trump is not planning on visiting Israel despite an invitation from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Trump has been seeking $1 trillion in increased Saudi investment in the US as well as another $1 trillion from the UAE.  We expect there will be major announcements of increased Saudi purchases of US defense equipment and a likely bolstering of US-Saudi/US-Gulf State security arrangements, too.

On Monday, we are expecting a joint statement from the US and China on trade talks in Geneva this weekend.  We note that it is not often we see joint statements between the US and China on just about anything so to hear one is coming on something as controversial as trade is highly unusual.  The White House and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who led the talks, have held close hold on any details of what was discussed or agreed to, as markets are monitoring the situation very closely for a sign of abatement of trade tensions overall.

In Europe this week, elections are the top event markets will be watching.  Romania will be holding a second round of highly contentious presidential elections.  In the first round on May 9th, hard-right nationalist George Simion won, and current polls suggest he will win the run-off.  Other elections this week in Europe include the first round of presidential elections in Poland and Portugal holding parliamentary elections.

Looking at the global financial radar screen this week, markets are eagerly awaiting a number of key inflation reports to gauge the impact of the Trump tariffs. In the US, the core CPI print for April is out on Tuesday, retail sales figures on Thursday, and the University of Michigan consumer survey on Friday. Intermixed with this are a number of Federal Reserve Governors speeches, including Fed Chair Jay Powell on Thursday.

In Europe, the EU Q1 GDP estimates and employment figures are out on Thursday, Germany’s April CPI is out on Wednesday, and the May ZEW Survey is out on Thursday, and the UK will be reporting labor figures on Tuesday, March GDP on Thursday.  

Turning to Asia, the Bank of Japan will release its summary of opinions from its April meeting on Friday, and we will see Japan’s Q1 GDP estimates on Saturday. Meanwhile, China will release April inflation numbers on Saturday. 

Below are all the other major political and economic events we are watching in the coming week:

Sunday, May 11, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US negotiators will continue nuclear talks (which began yesterday) in Muscat, Oman.

·       The US Department of Commerce will be holding its SelectUSA Investment Summit in Baltimore, Maryland.  The Summit, which runs through May 14, aims to attract foreign direct investment.

·       Haiti holds a Constitutional Referendum, the first referendum held in the country since 1987.   Originally scheduled for June 27, 2021, it has been repeatedly postponed because of political chaos.  The referendum puts up for a vote the abolition of the Senate and creates a unicarmal legislature, abolishes the role of Prime Minister and creates a presidential and vice-presidential system.  It would also establish mandatory military and/or civic services for those turning 18.

·       Uruguay will hold municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Uruguay Municipal Elections

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In South Korea, today is the registration deadline for presidential candidates hoping to run in the June 3 election. 

·       Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam will visit Belarus through May 12.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Albania will hold general elections. In October, Albania started discussions with the European Union on how the country aligns with EU stances on the rule of law, the functioning of democratic institutions and the fight against corruption. Prime Minister Rama hopes that Albania can join the European Union by 2030.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Lebanon will hold the second phase of its municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 12, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM)..

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazilian President Lula will travel to China through May 13 to discuss trade, particularly agricultural sales to gain market share from the US as a result of China’s retaliatory tariffs on the US.

·       The 15th Annual China Business Conference, hosted by the US Chamber of Commerce, begins in Washington, running until Wednesday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech on the economic outlook at the National Association for Business Economics and the Central Bank of Ireland’s International Economic Symposium, Central Bank of Ireland, Dublin, Ireland.

·       Mexico Industrial Production (March)

·       USA WASDE Report/ Monthly Budget Statement (April)

·       El Salvador PPI (April)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Philippines holds elections for their House of Representatives and Senate.  More than 18,000 seats are set to be filled.

·       South Korea formally opens its election season, a three-week campaign for the presidency with the vote on June 3.

·       The Center for Asia-Pacific Resilience and Innovation (Capri) annual forum, this year titled Shaping Landscapes Towards a Sustainable Future for the Asia Pacific, in Taipei, Taiwan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Current Account (March)/ Bank Lending (April)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook & Current (April)

·       Philippines General Elections

·       India Inflation Rate (April)

·       Kazakhstan PPI (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup meets in Brussels to discuss banking union, the European Stability Mechanism, and other issues.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen opens the Strategic Dialogue on the European Defense Industry in Brussels.

·       European Council President Antonio Costa will travel to the Western Balkans through May 16 to meet with political leaders and co-host the Sixth European Political Community Summit in Tirana.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Energy Ministers through May 13 in Brussels.

·       EU Education, Youth, Culture and Sports Council meets through May 13 in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Clare Lombardelli gives a speech at the Bank of England Bank Watchers’ Conference at Kings Business School in London.

·       Romania Balance of Trade (March)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (March)

·       Turkey Retail Sales (March)/ Auto Production (April)/ Auto Sales (April)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (April)

·       Russia Summary of the Key Rate Discussion

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (April)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (April)

·       Euro Area ECOFIN Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Consumer Confidence (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (March)

Tuesday, May 13, 2025

Global

·       The 2025 UN Peacekeeping Ministerial begins in Berlin, Germany. 

·       The Arctic Council Ministerial meeting take place virtually.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump will visit Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar in his first foreign visit during his second term through May 16.  Joining Trump will be a number of US CEOs including BlackRock’s Larry Fink, Citigroup’s Jane Fraser and Palantir’s Alex Karp. Interestingly, Trump is not visiting Israel on this trip.

·       Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to announce his new cabinet (TBC).

·       Colombian President Gustavo Petro and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will lead the Latin American delegation at the fourth meeting of foreign ministers of the China-Community of Latin American and Caribbean States Forum in Beijing, China.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (April)/ Inflation Rate (April)/ CPI (April)/ Redbook (May/10)/ Total Household Debt Q1/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/09)

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (April)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (March)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Chinese-French Economic and Financial Dialogue takes place in Paris, France.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan BoJ Summary of Opinions

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (May)/ NAB Business Confidence (April)/ Building Permits (March)/ Private House Approvals (March)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment FEB

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (March)

·       Indonesia Car Sales (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Council of Europe Committee of Ministers meets in Luxembourg through May 14.  Foreign Ministers for all 46 member states will attend and the primary agenda item is how to bolster support for Ukraine.

·       The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Brussels.

·       The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development holds their annual meeting through May 15 in London.

·       The Copenhagen Democracy Summit 2025 begins at the Royal Danish Playhouse. The two-day gathering brings together leaders from business, politics, media and academia.

·       Eurovision 2025 begins in Basel, Switzerland.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (April)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Employment Change (March)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (April)/ Claimant Count Change (April)

·       Ireland Construction PMI (April)

·       Romania Inflation Rate (April)

·       Turkey Current Account (March)

·       Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (May)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (May)/ ZEW Current Conditions (May)/ Current Account (March)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The US–Saudi Investment Forum takes place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

·       Morocco will host the 21st annual African Lion military exercises in conjunction with more than 30 other countries, including the United States, through May 23.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The International Finance Corporation’s Africa CEO Forum starts in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Unemployment Rate Q1/ Unemployed Persons Q1

·       Ghana PPI (April)

·       Angola Inflation Rate (April)

Wednesday, May 14, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Yemen).

·       OPEC’s Monthly Report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller will speak that the  Award Ceremony for the Winners of the 2nd Edition of the Bank Al-Maghrib Prize for Economic and Financial Research, Rabat, Morocco.

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Annual Conference of Second District Directors and Advisors (virtual).

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in fireside chat before the California Bankers Association 25th Annual Conference and Directors Forum.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/09)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (May/09)/ Fed Daly Speech

·       Canada Building Permits (March)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (March)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (April)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (April)/ Visitor Arrivals (March)

·       Japan PPI (April)

·       Australia Home Loans Q1/ Investment Lending for Homes Q1/ Wage Price Index Q1

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (March)

·       India WPI Food Index/ Fuel/ Inflation/ Manufacturing (April)/ M3 Money Supply (May/02)

·       Kazakhstan Unemployment Rate Q1

·       China New Yuan Loans (April)/ M2 Money Supply (April)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (April)/ Total Social Financing (April)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of NATO Chiefs of Defense in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone chairs a panel on liquidity issues at "ECB Roundtable on Tokenisation: challenges and opportunities in a European context" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Sarah Breeden, Bank of England deputy governor, financial stability, gives a keynote speech at the International Swaps and Derivatives Association 39th Annual General Meeting in Amsterdam.

·        

·       Germany Inflation Rate (April)

·       Romania Industrial Production (March)

·       Hungary Construction Output (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (April)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (April)

·       Romania Current Account (March)

·       Serbia Current Account (March)

·       Poland Balance of Trade (March)/ Current Account (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey will host an informal foreign ministers meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Antalya through May 15. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (April)

Thursday, May 15, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on ICC Libya.

·       The International Energy Agency releases its monthly oil report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell will give a speech on “Framework Review” at the Thomas Laubach Research Conference, Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr will give opening remarks (pre-recorded) at the  2025 Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Small Business Credit Symposium, hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Boston, and Richmond.

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (May)/ Housing Starts (April)/ Manufacturing Sales (March)/ Wholesale Sales (March)

·       Brazil Retail Sales (March)/ Business Confidence (May)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (May/10)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (May)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (May/03)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (May)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (May)/ PPI (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Capacity Utilization (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Manufacturing Production (April)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (May)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (May/09)/ NOPA Crush Report/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/15)/ Fed Balance Sheet (May/14)

·       Colombia GDP Growth Rate Q1/ ISE Economic Activity (March)

·       Mexico Interest Rate Decision

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (March)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will hold high-level trade talks with his South Korean counterparts in Jeju, South Korea.

·       APEC Trade Ministers meet in Jeju.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Food Inflation (April)

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (May)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (May)/ Machine Tool Orders (April)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (May)/ Employment Change (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ Participation Rate (April)

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Kazakhstan GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Industrial Production (April)/ GDP (April)

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (March)

·       India Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will visit Montenegro.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone gives opening remarks, followed by Q&A at the France Payments Forum in Paris, France.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Frank Elderson gives a  video message on "Sustainability risks & financial market stability" at Green Finance Conference "Building bridges for financing a sustainable transition" in Vienna, Austria

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a keynote address at the 39th Annual General Meeting organized by ISDA in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member  Piero Cipollone participates in a fireside chat with François Villeroy de Galhau at Digital Currency II Conference organized by Banque de France, Toulouse School of Economics, Paris-Pantheon Assas and the ECB in Paris, France.

·       Swati Dhingra, a member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, speaks at the New Economics Foundation conference, EU macroeconomic policy in an age of shocks, in Brussels.

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (April)

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Great Britain GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Business Investment Q1/ Goods Trade Balance (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Business Investment Q1/ Construction Orders Q1/ Construction Output (March)/ GDP (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Manufacturing Production (March)/ Labour Productivity Q1

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (April)

·       France Inflation Rate (April)/ IEA Oil Market Report

·       Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Poland GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Inflation Rate (April)

·       Slovenia GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Euro Area Employment Change Q1/ GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est Q1/ Industrial Production (March)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (March)

·       Serbia Building Permits (March)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/09)/ Budget Balance (April)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Palestinian territories will observe Nakba Day, commemorating the anniversary of the beginning of the 1948 Arab-Israeli war. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (April)/ Wholesale Prices (April)

·       Oman Inflation Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (March)/ Mining Production (March)

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ M3 Money Supply (April)

·       Egypt Unemployment Rate Q1

·       Nigeria Inflation Rate (April)/ Food Inflation (April)

Friday, May 16, 2025

 Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       BARKING SPEAKS

·       Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (March)

·       USA Building Permits (April)/ Import Prices (April)/ Export Prices (April)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations & Sentiment (May)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (May/16)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (March)/ Foreign Bond Investment (March)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (March)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Policy Board Member Toyoaki Nakamura gives a speech at the Nishinippon Seikei Konwakai meeting in Fukuoka, Japan.

·       South Korea Import Prices (April)/ Export Prices (April)

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (April)/ Business Inflation Expectations Q2

·       Japan GDP Growth Annualized Q1/ GDP Price Index Q1/ Capacity Utilization (March)/ Industrial Production (March)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Indonesia Property Price Index Q1

·       Malaysia Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/09)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Services PMI (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Political Community meets in Tirana, Albania.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone gives introductory remarks at meeting of the Euro Cyber Resilience Board for pan-European Financial Infrastructures in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Philip R. Lane participates on a Policymaker Panel: "Central Bank Communications and Uncertainty" at 2nd Thomas Laubach Research Conference organized by the Federal Reserve Board in Washington D.C.

·       France Unemployment Rate Q1

·       Switzerland Industrial Production Q1

·       Italy Inflation Rate (April)/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (March)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (April)

·       Romania Interest Rate Decision

·       Belarus Industrial Production (April)/ GDP (April)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Inflation Rate (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, May 17, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events

·       The Eurovision 2025 finals are held tonight.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Poland Presidential Election

·       Romania Presidential Election (2nd Round)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Iraq will host the 34th Arab League summit in Baghdad.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 18, 2025

 Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Poland holds the first round of elections for their presidency.

·       Portugal holds parliamentary elections.

·       Romania holds the 2nd round of elections for its presidency.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The IMF Middle East and North Africa research conference, co-organized by the IMF and the Onsi Sawiris School of Business at The American University in Cairo, begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Canadian PM Carney Meets with President Trump, Russia Celebrates Victory Day, While Chinese President Xi Meets with Russian President Putin, and the Federal Reserve and Bank of England Decide Interest Rates

This week marks the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II in Europe – V.E. Day. Great Britain, Russia, and other European nations will host parades and festivities to mark the historic occasion. Russia is offering Ukraine a short-term cease-fire on Friday to allow Russia to celebrate what it calls Victory Day. 

As part of the Victory Day celebration in Moscow, a number of leaders will attend in person, including Chinese President Xi Jinping.  Xi arrives on May for one-on-one meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss a number of critical issues, including President Trump's tariffs, the war in Ukraine a, furthering China's support for Russia, and US efforts to negotiate with Iran over its nuclear program. 

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will also meet with Putin on the sidelines of the celebrations. Brazil is chairing the BRICS this year and will discuss ways to strengthen the bloc in the face of Trump's riffs.

It will be a busy week in Europe.  At the Vatican, the Conclave of Cardinals begins to elect a new pope. 135 cardinals will gather in a closed meeting until they elect the successor to the late Pope Francis. As the Conclave begins, EU foreign ministers will be meeting in Warsaw to discuss how to strengthen European mutual security to counter Russia, as well as how to deal with the US tariffs on the EU.  And Friedrich Mertz is expected to be elected by the German Bundestag (Parliament) this week as the country's new Chancellor.

In Asia, we are watching the continued (and growing) tensions between Pakistan and India as a result of last month's attack in Kashmir that killed 26 civilians. India blames Pakistan for supporting the terrorists responsible for the attack and is threatening to attack Pakistan in response. While the US and EU work with both India and Pakistan to find a peaceful solution, we note that Iran is also trying to play a role. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is traveling to both countries this week to mediate. 

In Washington, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, coming off a winning election last week, will meet with President Donald Trump to discuss tariffs placed on Canada. We believe Trump is leaning toward lifting or at least temporarily suspending some of the tariffs. 

Washington is likely to be buzzing with visiting trade representatives coming to meet with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and other senior Trump Administration officials seeking deals to get out from under Trump's tariffs.  Last week, meetings between Japanese and South Korean officials were held, but no deals were reached, and from what we have heard from numerous sources, the talks did not go well.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, the US Federal Reserve Board and the Bank of England's monetary policy decisions will dominate the market's attention. The Fed—despite President Trump's demands for rate cuts—is expected to hold rates steady, while the Bank of England is expected to cut rates by 24 basis points. 

Several other central bank and monetary policy-focused meetings will also be important to watch this week.  The European Central Bank is holding an off-site in Portugal, where we expect commentary on the impact of tariffs on the state of the European and global economy.  In Iceland, the Reykjavik Economic Conference 2025 on Friday and Saturday will host a slew of central bankers who will be giving major speeches and talking on panels, while at the Hoover Institute at Stanford University, the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference will also see a number of central bankers from various countries speaking.

 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will be testifying before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday on the state of the international financial system.  It will certainly be a lively hearing as Bessent will face intense questions about the impact of the Trump tariffs on global markets in general and the US economy in particular. 

In the midst of all this, US March trade data will be out on Tuesday, Q1 data on Thursday, and productivity and labor data on Monday, while the April ISM services report will be out on Monday.  

In Europe, Germany reports factory orders, industrial production, and trade balance figures on Thursday, while France reports its trade balance on Wednesday and industrial production on Tuesday. The Eurozone's April CPI is out on Thursday.

In Asia, China reports April trade figures on Friday, while the Bank of Japan releases its March monetary policy minutes on Thursday.  

Below are all the other major political and economic events we are watching in the coming week:

Sunday, May 4, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Milken Institute Global Conference begins in Beverly Hills, California and runs through May 8..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan's parliamentary vice-minister for foreign affairs, Matsumoto Hisashi, will visit Algeria and Tunisia through May 6. 

·       China will hold its Golden Week holiday through May 5, and Japan will celebrate through May 6.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Romania holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Lebanon holds the first phase of its municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 5, 2025

Global

·       OPEC+ Ministerial meetings take place in Vienna, Austria.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to have consultations on 1559 report (peace keeping in Lebanon).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will meet with Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) leaders to discuss tariffs.

·       The Milken Global Conference begins in Beverly Hills, California.  US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will speak at the conference.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (April)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (May)

·       USA S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (April)/ ISM Services PMI (April)/ ISM Services Business Activity (April)/ ISM Services Employment (April)/ ISM Services New Orders (April)/ ISM Services Prices (April)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (April)

·       Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam will visit Kazakhstan through May 7.

·       South Korea celebrates the Birth of Buddha.  Financial markets are closed.

·       Japan celebrates Children’s Day.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (April)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (April)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (April)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Indonesia GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Singapore Retail Sales (March)

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

·       India Government Budget Value (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Milan will host of the 58th annual meeting of the Asian Development Bank’s Board of Governors.

·       In Great Britain, Members of the armed forces will march from Parliament Square, kicking off a week of 80th VE Day anniversary events, including a recitation of Winston Churchill’s victory speech as Big Ben strikes midday, and a military fly-past over central London.

·       In France, rail passengers are set to be hit by industrial action over the early May public holiday. The CGT-Cheminots, SNCF’s largest union, has called for an indefinite strike starting today, pushing for better pay for drivers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       In the UK, today is an Early May bank holiday.  Financial markets are closed.

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Romania Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (April)

·       Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Spain Tourist Arrivals (March)/ New Car Sales (April)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (April)/ PPI (April)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (March)

·       Serbia PPI (April)

·       France New Car Registrations (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (April)

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (April)

·       Jordan PPI (March)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (March)/ Private Bank Lending (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (April)

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ M2 Money Supply (March)

Tuesday, May 6, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney will travel to Washington to meet with President Donald Trump to discuss tariffs.

·       The US Senate Banking Committee will vote on the nominations of  Michelle Bowman to be the Federal Reserve Board Vice Chairman for Supervision.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (February)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Ivey PMI s.a (April)

·       USA Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Redbook (May/03)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (May)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/02)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (April)

·       Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       Colombia PPI (April)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Malaysia hosts the 46th ASEAN summit.

·       South Korea celebrates Children’s Day.  Financial markets are closed.

·       Japan celebrates Greenery Day, a public holiday.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (April)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (April)

·       Australia Building Permits (March)/ Private House Approvals (March)

·       China Caixin Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (April)/ Foreign Direct Investment (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Inflation Rate (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Tourist Arrivals (April)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI Final (April)

·       Thailand Business Confidence (April)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (May/13)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Germany, Friedrich Merz will be voted in as the new Chancellor.

·       The European Commission is expected to release plans for ending reliance on Russian oil and gas imports.

·       The Defense 24 Days security conference begins in Warsaw, Poland.

·       The Athens International Defense and Security Expo begins in Athens, Greece.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank begins its two-day Governing Council of the ECB: annual retreat hosted by Banco de Portugal.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden will be a panelist at the Global Finance and Technology Networks’ 4th Point Zero Forum.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (April)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Romania PPI (March)

·       France Industrial Production (March)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (April)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)/ New Car Registrations (April)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)/ PPI (March)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (April)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (April)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey will conduct the Denizkurdu-II-2025, or Sea Wolf-II-2025, naval exercise in the Black, Aegean and eastern Mediterranean seas through May 17.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (April)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (April)

Wednesday, May 7, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The RealID requirements enter into force in the US for all air travel

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference/USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/02)/ MBA Purchase Index (May/02)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (May/02)/ Consumer Credit Change (March)/ Used Car Prices (April)

·       Brazil Industrial Production (March)/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (April)

·       Colombia Exports (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese President Xi Jinping will travel to Moscow for meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin and to participate in the Victory Day celebrations.

·       ASEAN+3 Finance Ministers meet in Milan, Italy.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       New Zealand Employment Change Q1/ Unemployment Rate Q1/ Labour Costs Index Q1/ Participation Rate Q1

·       Australia Ai Group Industry Index (April)/ Ai Group Construction Index (April)/ Ai Group Manufacturing Index (April)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (April)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMI Final (April)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (April)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (April)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       At the Vatican, the conclave to elect the next pope beings.

·       Germany's incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz will meet French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris, France, marking his first foreign trip in office.  Later in the day, he will then travel to Poland to meet with Prime Minister Donald Tusk

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Foreign Affairs Ministers in Warsaw, Poland, through May 8.

·       In Denmark, the Copenhagen Climate Ministerial, co-hosted by Danish climate, energy and utilities minister Lars Aagaard, COP30 president-designate ambassador André Corrêa do Lago and outgoing COP29 president Mukhtar Babayev. Discussions at the two-day meeting will revolve around implementation of last year’s COP29 plans and the key expectations for this year’s COP30

·       Today is the 25th anniversary of Valdimire Putin first being elected.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Factory Orders (March)/ HCOB Construction PMI (April)

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       Hungary Retail Sales (March)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Current Account (March)/ Private Non-Farm Payrolls Q1/ HCOB Construction PMI (April)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (March)

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Construction PMI (April)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ Interest Rate Decision (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi travels to New Delhi, India and Pakistan in an attempt to mediate between the two countries after Pakistani terrorists attacked Indian tourists in Kashmir.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (April)/ Business Confidence (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, May 8, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the mandate of the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will travel to Russia to meet with President Vladimir Putin.

·       The 3rd Latin Consumer Summit begins in Miami, Floria.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil PPI (March)/ Car Production (April)/ New Car Registrations (April)

·       Chile Inflation Rate (April)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (April)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (May/03)/ Nonfarm Productivity Q1/ Unit Labour Costs Q1/ Continuing Jobless Claims (April/26)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (May/03)/ Wholesale Inventories (March)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/08)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)/ Fed Balance Sheet (May/07)

·       Canada Financial Stability Report

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (April)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (March)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (April)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam will end his trip to Azerbaijan and visit Russia through May 10.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand RBNZ Financial Stability Report

·       Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Philippines GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ Motorbike Sales (April)IL

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (March)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the anniversary of “VE Day”, 80 years since the surrender of Nazi Germany.

·       Russia is expected to begin a 72-hour ceasefire with Ukraine.  But most observers do not believe Russian military forces will cease fighting.

·       The Ukrainian Parliament will vote to approve the US-Ukraine economic/critical minerals deal

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Anneli Tuominen moderates a panel discussion on “Repo market: Turmoil at the core of the financial system?” at SUERF BAFFI Bocconi webinar.

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Industrial Production (March)

·       Romania Retail Sales (March)

·       Bank of England Interest Rate Decision/Halifax House Price Index (April)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (April)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (March)/ Budget Balance (April)

·       Spain Industrial Production (March)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (March)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (April)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/02)/ Treasury Cash Balance (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Tuominen Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will travel to Azerbaijan for talks.  Netanyahu will discuss tensions with Turkey and Iran.

·       Turkish and Iraqi delegations will attend the High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council meeting in Ankara, Turkey.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ Manufacturing Production (March)

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (April)

Friday, May 9, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr speaks on Artificial Intelligence and the Labor Market at the Reykjavik Economic Conference 2025, Reykjavik, Iceland.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler gives a speech on Maximum Employment at the Reykjavik Economic Conference 2025, Reykjavik, Iceland.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams speaks before the Reykjavik Economic Conference organized by the Central Bank of Iceland and the Center for International Macroeconomics at Northwestern University.  Later, he will speak on “Taylor Rules in Policy” before the Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference virtually.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on monetary policy research at the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference: Finishing the Job and New Challenges, Stanford, California.  Governor Lisa Cook will also speak at the conference, giving a speech on Productivity Dynamics.

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack will also speak before the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference on the topic of monetary policy.

·       The Federal Reserve Board holds the 8th Short-Term Funding Markets Conference in Washington, D.C.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee gives welcome and opening remarks before the “Fed Listens: Perspectives from the Midwest" event.

·       US Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (May/09)

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (April)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (April)/ Auto Production & Exports (April)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (April)/ Employment Change (April)/ Participation Rate (April)/ Average Hourly Wages (April)

·       Costa Rica Unemployment Rate Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (March)

·       Japan Household Spending (March)/ Average Cash Earnings (March)/ Overtime Pay (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ Coincident Index (March)/ Leading Economic Index Prel

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (April)

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Vehicle Sales (April)/ Current Account Q1/ New Yuan Loans (April)/ M2 Money Supply (April)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (April)/ Total Social Financing (April)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Malaysia Construction Output Q1/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (April/25)/ Deposit Growth (April/25)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/02)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Union celebrates Europe Day, marking the 1950 declaration by the Luxembourg-born French statesman Robert Schuman proposing a continent united in solidarity, considered the first step towards the EU being formed.

·       French President Emmanuel Macron will host Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Nancy to sign a Franco-Polish economic and defense cooperation treaty.

·       Russia will celebrate Victory Day, marking the date when German forces surrendered to the Soviet army in 1945, commemorated with a military parade in Moscow’s Red Square and wreath-laying at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier. Attendees this year are set to include Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives the keynote address at the Reykjavik economic conference 2025, hosted by Northwestern University and the Central Bank of Iceland.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates on a panel discussion at the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference “Finishing the Job and New Challenges” of Harvard University.

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (April)/ BoE Bailey Speech/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (April)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (April)

·       France Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (March)/ Industrial Production (March)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (March)

·       Italy Industrial Production (March)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (March)

·       Greece Inflation Rate (April)

·       Ireland Industrial Production (March)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Schnabel Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (April)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (April)

Saturday, May 10, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam will visit Belarus through May 12.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (April)/ PPI (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 11, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Department of Commerce will be holding its SelectUSA Investment Summit in Baltimore, Maryland.  The Summit, which runs through May 14, aims to attract foreign direct investment.

·       Haiti holds a Constitutional Referendum, the first referendum held in the country since 1987.   Originally scheduled for June 27, 2021, it has been repeatedly postponed because of political chaos.  The referendum puts up for a vote the abolition of the Senate and creates a unicameral legislature, abolishes the role of Prime Minister, and creates a presidential and vice-presidential system.  It would also establish mandatory military and/or civic services for those turning 18.

·       Uruguay will hold municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Uruguay Municipal Elections

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In South Korea, today is the registration deadline for presidential candidates hoping to run in the June 3 election. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Albania will hold general elections. In October, Albania started discussions with the European Union on how the country aligns with EU stances on the rule of law, the functioning of democratic institutions and the fight against corruption. Prime Minister Rama hopes that Albania can join the European Union by 2030.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Lebanon will hold the second phase of its municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.