The Global Week Ahead

The Implications of Syria’s Assad Regime Stunningly Collapse, What Next for South Korea? Why Romania’s Election Crisis Matters to Markets, And A Big Week for Central Banks.

There is an old saying that in life, there are weeks when nothing happens. and then there are weeks when decades happen.  This has been one of those weeks, and the fallout will likely be felt for a long time.  First, the more than 50-year despotic Assad Dynasty in Syria has collapsed, suddenly and significantly reshaping the Middle East.

It all happened in less than two weeks. when rebels launched a surprise, lightning-fast offensive from northwestern Syria, stunning the Syrian Army. While we will be writing a more in-depth analysis of what this means for markets, we would two initial market-impactful implications:  

First, aside from Bashar Assad, the biggest losers here are Iran and Russia.  Iran spent decades carving out a “Shia Crescent” from Iran’s border through Syria and into Southern Lebanon, giving them direct access to the Mediterranean.  Now, with Israel effectively destroying Hezbollah in Lebanon and Assad’s defeat, Iran has now lost this strategic pathway.

Moreover, we would note there have been numerous reports Israel has taken advantage of the situation and has spent the last 24 hours destroying every major military airfield, military radar facilities, and anti-aircraft capability in Syria, depriving Iran of their first line of defense against Israel.  Now, if Iran were again attacking Israel, forcing Israel to retaliate or, more significantly, if Israel wants to go after Iran’s nuclear weapons facilities or oil production facilities, Israel now has a clear path of attack, which they have never had before.

For Russia, Assad’s defeat is a major strategic loss:  Syrian rebels have demanded Russia withdraw from their prized naval base in Tartus (which, as of this writing, it appears they are doing) as well as evacuate all ground forces inside Syria who have been supporting Assad.  The loss of the Tartus port is stunning for Russia, as the Russian Navy only has two warm-water naval ports, one in Crimea and the facilities in Tartus. 

Second, the true intentions of the Syrian rebels are confusing and to many experts, worrisome. Rebel forces are led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, a former member of Al Qaeda who was captured by USS forces in Iraq and who spent five years in a US prison in Iraq.  After being released, he went to Syria to fight in the Syrian Civil War, establishing Al Queda’s Syrian branch.  He and his forces, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, eventually broke with Al Qaeda and professes to be more moderate now.  Joining al-Jolani are Kurdish forces (whom US Special Forces have been assisting on the ground for a number of years).  But has al-Jolani and his group truly moderated themselves?  Or are we about to see Syria become the new Afghanistan, led by a radical Islamist organization while being riven by internal fighting among various other factions?  

While all this is going on, several other nations were and continue to be dealing with internal crisis’, most notably South Korea and Romania.  In South Korea, President Yoon Suk Yeol created a political crisis last week by briefly declaring martial law.  He was forced to retract it soon after, but politicians and citizens are demanding he resign and face criminal charges.  We expect Yoon to step down soon but there remain many questions as to what led to him declaring martial law and what happens next to this critical Asian democracy.

Meanwhile, in Romania, the nation’s top court annulled a recent first-round presidential vote which was won by a far-right candidate, Calin Georgescu, who is seen as aligned with Moscow.  The significance of this for markets is Romania is both a member of the EU and NATO and is now facing potential civil strife until a new election can be held.  The Romanian Intelligence Service and Interior Ministry released files last week showing significant “foreign interference” – e.g., Russian – in the election which led to the Constitutional Court annulling the election.  Among the findings was declassified evidence that, among other things,  Tiktok – which Georgescu used extensively to campaign – had given his campaign massive preferential treatment over the other candidates.  The second-round vote was scheduled for today – Sunday – but the court order effectively canceled it.

We would also note Georgia is undergoing similar troubles as evidence emerged of significant Russian interference in their October 26th election which has led the newly elected Prime Minister, Irakli Kobakhidze, to announce he was discontinuing talks with the EU about Georgia joining – despite the Georgian Constitution having enshrined in it the goal of joining the EU.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, it is going to be a big week for central banks.  The European Central Bank, the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Central Bank of Brazil, the Reserve Bank of Canada, and the Swiss Central Bank all meet this week to set interest rates – a week before the U.S. Federal Reserve meets on interest rates.  Markets will be closely attuned to where rates are set and any indication of how the Fed may act in concert – or not.

In the U.S. this coming week, the CPI print comes out on Wednesday and the PPI is out on Thursday.   In Asia, the Bank of Japan’s Tankan Survey is out Friday – which is closely watched by the Bank of Japan – and in China, inflation figures are out on Monday and trade data is out on Tuesday. 

Moving to Europe, the UK GDP and consumer confidence reports are out on Friday. 

Below are all the other major events and reports we are watching closely in the coming week:

Sunday, December 8, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Constitution Day in Uzbekistan, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Romania was scheduled to hold a presidential election run-off.  However, late last week the Romanian Supreme Court ruled the election was invalid due to foreign interference and has ordered new elections.

·       Notre-Dame Cathedral official reopens to the public after a catastrophic fire five years ago.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, December 9, 2024

Global

·       The BRICS holds the Seminars on Institutional Development Issues in Moscow.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The OECD releases its Latin America Outlook.

·       The Wall Street Journal holds its annual CEO Summit in Washington and continues through December 10.  A number of Fortune 100 CEOs along with members of Congress and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (November)

·       USA Wholesale Inventories (October)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (November)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       International Atomic Energy Agency officials and international experts arrive in Japan for a review of the safety and regulatory aspects of the discharge of ALPS-treated water from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant into the sea

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Current Account (October)/ Bank Lending (November)/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q3/ GDP Price Index Q3

·       Australia Building Permits (October)/ Private House Approvals (October)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (September)

·       China Inflation Rate (November)/ PPI (November)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Malaysia Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron is expected to announce a new Prime Minister following the French Parliament’s no confidence vote last week which forced Prime Minister Michel Barnier to step down.

·       Large protests by European farmers are expected in Brussels following the EU reaching a deal with Mercosur last week.   Meanwhile, in France, French train, dock, and public sector workers will hold a series of strikes.

·       The Netherlands will impose border controls for six months to limit migration.

·       The Eurogroup meets in Brussels. Ministers will review current macroeconomic development and exchange views with the IMF on euro area policies.  Ministers will also discuss the overall budgetary situation and prospects in the euro area and review the economic and fiscal situation of the euro area member states.

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council will meet through December 10.  The Council will aim to reach a political agreement on two Commission proposals on fishing opportunities. These are the proposal covering fishing opportunities in the Atlantic and the North Sea for 2025 and, in the case of some stocks, also for 2026, and the proposal on fishing opportunities for 2025 in the Mediterranean and the Black Seas.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking Dave Ramsden will give a speech at OMFIF in London on financial stability and the Bank of England’s toolkit.

·       Ireland Construction PMI (November)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Inflation Rate (November)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (October)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to testify at his corruption trial.  He was scheduled to testify last week but it was delayed until this week. 

·       Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi visits Norway.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (November)

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The 23rd International Economic Forum on Africa 2024 will take place in Paris.

·       Tanzania celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Balance of Trade (July)/ (August)/ (September)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (November)

Tuesday, December 10, 2024

Global

·       UN Security Council meets to discuss the situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Later they will discuss the situation in Gaza.

·       The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) monthly report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (November)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (November)

·       USA Nonfarm Productivity Q3/ Unit Labour Costs Q3/ Redbook (December/07)/ WASDE Report/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (December/06)

·       El Salvador PPI (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan's Nihon Hidankyo, an organization that represents survivors of the atomic bombings in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, receives the Nobel Peace Prize as official award ceremonies get underway in Oslo and Stockholm. The literature prize will be awarded to "The Vegetarian" author Han Kang from South Korea.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision/Australia NAB Business Confidence (November)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (October)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (October)

·       Japan Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (November)/ Machine Tool Orders (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council will meet.  Ministers will be informed of the progress of work within the Council on proposals to reform the EU’s customs legislation. The presidency will provide the information based on a presidency progress report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Netherlands Inflation Rate (November)/ Manufacturing Production (October)

·       Germany Inflation Rate (November)

·       Romania Balance of Trade (October)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)/ Participation Rate (October)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (November)

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (October)

·       Italy Industrial Production (October)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (October)

·       Greece Industrial Production (October)/ Inflation Rate (November)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (November)

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (October)

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (November)

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The 2024 UNESCO Forum on Higher Education in Africa will take place in Nairobi.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (October)/ Mining Production (October)/ Manufacturing Production (October)

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (November)

Wednesday, December 11, 2024

Global

·       UN Secretary-General António Guterres will travel to South Africa to meet with President Cyril Ramaphosa.  They will discuss global and regional issues, especially South Africa’s G20 Presidency (which they hold in 2025).  On Thursday, Guterres will head to Lesotho. He will be meeting with His Majesty King Letsie III, as well as the Prime Minister and other officials. While there, he is scheduled to address the Parliament as Lesotho celebrates the bicentenary of the Basotho nation.

·       IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva will take part in a fireside chat at the Reuters NEXT conference in New York.

·       The OPEC monthly report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will testify before the House Foreign Affairs Committee on the withdrawal from Afghanistan.

·       Today is the deadline for U.S. governors to certify their states’ presidential election results and prepare seven Certificates of Ascertainment, one of which must be sent to the archivist and six of which will be used by electors for electoral votes.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (December/06)/ MBA Purchase Index (December/06)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ CPI (November)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (December/06)/ Monthly Budget Statement (November)

·       Brazil Car Production (November)/ New Car Registrations (November)/ Business Confidence (December)/ Brazil Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Bank of Canada meets to discuss and decide Interest Rates.  A press conference follows.

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (November)

·       Peru Balance of Trade (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Beijing, the Chinese Central Economic Work Conference meets. The two-day meeting, held behind closed doors and highly anticipated by markets, is expected to shape the country's growth goals and stimulus plans for 2025.

·       The Asian Development Bank (ADB) releases its latest regional economic outlook after its September report projected "developing Asia" -- comprising 46 ADB members, including China and India -- would post economic growth of 5.0% this year and 4.9% in 2025.

·       Japan hosts SEMICON Japan in Tokyo.  More than 1000 companies and organizations will be showing their wares at 3-day conference.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Manufacturing Sales Q3

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (December)/ BSI Large Manufacturing Q4/ PPI (November)

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Australia RBA Chart Pack

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (October)

·       India M3 Money Supply (November/29)

·       Kazakhstan PPI (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal hold opening remarks at the 7th German-Ukrainian Economic Forum in Berlin.

·       Switzerland’s parliament will elect a new president.

·       French railway workers are planning to go on strike over efforts to privatize the railroad.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Romania Inflation Rate (November)

·       Turkey Retail Sales (October)/ Auto Production (November)/ Auto Sales (November)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (October)

·       Russia Inflation Rate (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Republic Day in Burkina Faso, a national holiday.

·       Madagascar holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (November)/ Retail Sales (October)

Thursday, December 12, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council meets to discuss the situation in Yemen.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (November)/ Initial Jobless Claims (December/07)/ PPI (November)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (December/06)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/11)/ Fed Balance Sheet (December/11)

·       Brazil Retail Sales (October)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (November)/ Industrial Production (October)

·       Canada Building Permits (October)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Constitution Day in Thailand, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (November)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (December/07)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (December/07)

·       Australia Employment Change (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ Participation Rate (November)

·       Hong Kong Industrial Production Q3

·       Taiwan Interest Rate Decision

·       India Industrial Production (October)/ Manufacturing Production (October)/ Inflation Rate (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Home Affairs) will meet. Ministers will discuss he adoption of the Council decision setting the date for the lifting of checks on persons at the internal land border with and between Bulgaria and Romania on the agenda of the meeting of ministers. Both countries already fully apply Schengen rules from 31 March 2024. Internal air and maritime border controls with Bulgaria and Romania have also been lifted from that date.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank Governing Council meets to discuss and decide interest rates.  A press conference will follow.

·       Netherlands Balance of Trade (October)

·       Turkey Current Account (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/06)

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (November)/ GDP (October) / Goods Trade Balance (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Manufacturing Production (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Construction Output (October)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (November)

·       Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (November)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (November)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

·       Germany Current Account (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       South African President Cyril Ramaphosa will host his Angolan counterpart João Lourenço on a state visit to solidify relations between the two countries who share deep historical ties.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Expectations Q4/ PPI (November)/ Building Permits (October)/ SACCI Business Confidence (October)/ SACCI Business Confidence (November)

·       Angola Inflation Rate (November)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (November)

Friday, December 13, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (October)

·       Canada Capacity Utilization Q3/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (October)/ Manufacturing Sales (October)/ Wholesale Sales (October)

·       USA Import Prices (November)/ Export Prices (November)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (December/13)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (November)

·       Peru Unemployment Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Export Prices (November)/ Import Prices (November)

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (November)/ Visitor Arrivals (October)

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (December)

·       Japan Tankan Large All Industry Capex Q4/ Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q4/ Tankan Small Manufacturers Index Q4/ Capacity Utilization (October)/ Industrial Production (October)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Q3

·       India Bank Loan Growth (November/29)/ Deposit Growth (November/29)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/06)

·       China New Yuan Loans (November)/ M2 Money Supply (November)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (November)/ Total Social Financing (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will meet with Palestinian National Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in Rome.   Abbas will also meet with Pope Francis.

·       The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Justice) will meet.  Ministers will discuss a general approach (member states position) on a proposed directive which lays down minimum rules to prevent migrant smuggling. The law would replace the current EU legal framework which dates back to 2002. The objective of the proposal is to bring member states criminal law on issues such as the definition and sanctioning of migrant smuggling closer together. Ministers are aiming to settle on a member state position on a proposal to update the 2011 directive to strengthen criminal law on child sexual abuse and sexual exploitation. The goal of the update, proposed in February 2024 by the European Commission, is to expand the definitions of the offences of sexual abuse and sexual exploitation of children and to ensure more effective investigation and prosecution of these crimes. Finally, they will discuss a partial general approach on key elements of a proposal for a directive to harmonize certain aspects of insolvency law. The proposal is one of the initiatives of the 2020 Capital Markets Union action plan. It aims at encouraging cross-border investment within the single market through targeted harmonization of insolvency proceedings.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain GfK Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Romania Industrial Production (October)/ Current Account (October)

·       Hungary Construction Output (October)/ Industrial Production (October)

·       France Inflation Rate (November)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (November)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (November)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (November)/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Current Account (October)

·       Euro Area Industrial Production (October)

·       Greece Construction Output Q3

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (October)

·       Russia GDP Growth Rate Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iran is set to impose harsher dress codes that would ban women from wearing tight clothing and outfits that expose the body below the neck or above the ankles and forearms. The hardline parliament approved the new edict despite opposition from reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian, and two years after earlier dress codes sparked protests. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Oman M2 Money Supply (October)/ Total Credit (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, December 14, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The South Korean opposition in the parliament are planning to attempt to move an impeachment vote against President Yook Suk Yeol unless he steps down.  This comes after he declared martial law last week.   However, South Korean ruling party leaders have announced Yoon will be stepping down soon in an “orderly, early” way.

·       Tokyo-based startup Space One is set to launch its Kairos rocket from western Japan, less than a year after its first attempt ended in failure. A successful launch this time would make it the first private venture in Japan to put a satellite into orbit. The company's backers include Canon Electronics and rocket-engine maker IHI.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China FDI (YTD) (November)/ Vehicle Sales (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Georgia holds presidential elections which are sure to be highly contentious.  Georgia has been rocked by protests after the Georgian Prime Minister, Irakli Kobakhidze, announced the government will suspect talks on EU accession despite the goal of joining is written into the country’s constitution.   The President of Georgia, Salome Zourabichivili, has said the October 26th parliamentary elections were fraudulent with heavy interference from Russia – and therefore, illegitimate.  Kobakhidze, by saying the Parliament is illegitimate and as the parliament elects the president, has said she will not recognize the outcome and stand-down.   

·       Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will meet with Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati in Rome to discuss the situation in southern Lebanon.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 15, 2024

Global

·       The UN Internet Governance Forum begins in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and goes through December 19.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 3rd China Indian Ocean Region Forum on Blue Economy Development Cooperation meets in Kunming, China.  clean energy, climate change response, disaster reduction on the agenda among other topics,

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing, Composite & Services PMI Flash (December)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing, Composite & Services PMI Flash (December)/ Tertiary Industry Index (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.K. officially joins the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) as the 12th member of the Asia-Pacific trade bloc. The general agreement removes trade tariffs between member countries and sets rules on matters such as cross-border investment, e-commerce, intellectual property and labor. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI Flash (December)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing, Composite & Services PMI Flash (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (November)/ M1 Money Supply (November)

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (November)/ Wholesale Prices (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Syria’s Simmering Civil War Explodes Again, France’s Government on Brink of Crisis, OPIC+ Meets to Possibly Approve Production Increases, Key International Chairs Change Hands, And A Big Week of Economic Data Releases

December 1 - 8, 2024

We are four weeks away from 2025, but 2024 is going out with a bang. In Syria, where the civil war had been at a relatively low boil this past year, all hell broke out when rebels (mostly aligned with radical Islamist groups) launched a massive surprise attack on the city of Aleppo, the most populous governate and city in Syria. They captured it with relative ease and continued to press their attacks south toward the city of Hama, hammering Syrian Army forces (who are supported by the Russian Air Force and elements of the Russian Army).

The reignited conflict brings a new element of uncertainty and risk to the Middle East and is seen as a significant blow to Russia and Iran, both of whom have been propping up and helping to defend the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (who was in Moscow when the offensive began and had to rush back to Damascus to deal with it).

Meanwhile, in France, far-right leader Marine Le Pen gave French Prime Minister Michel Barnier until Monday to come up with more concessions (Barnier had already acceded to earlier Le Pen demands to drop planned tax increases) in the hotly debated 2025 budget or face a no-confidence vote in parliament which would throw the government into crisis. Markets have been selling off in the face of what is likely to be a wild week politically in Paris.

Also, in Europe this week, NATO member foreign ministers will meet in Brussels for an important discussion on how to further aid Ukraine. The meeting comes after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky suggested in a media interview this past week that an offer of NATO membership for territory currently under Ukraine’s control could end “the hot stage of the war.”  

Also this week, new leadership comes (or is about to come) to three important international seats:

• The US will take the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of December.

• South Africa officially takes the presidency of the G20 from Brazil for 2025.

• Poland begins laying the groundwork for its upcoming role as President of the European Union on January 1 and will continue until June 2025.

We would also note that OPEC+ meets this week to discuss possibly increasing production output—a highly contentious issue among the oil-producing states. The meeting was originally scheduled for December 1, but behind-the-scenes disagreements forced it to be postponed until December 5.

Looking at the economic radar screen this week, markets are watching the US jobs report released this Friday. Wall Street consensus estimates are roughly in the 200,000-plus range. Also, this week, the ISM Indices – manufacturing and services, on Monday and Wednesday, respectively.  And the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book are out on Friday.

In Europe, Germany—which continues to struggle economically—will release important factory order data, industrial production figures, and its trade balance. These releases come as Volkswagen workers begin to go on strike over upcoming layoffs and plant closures. 

In Asia, Japan releases both wage and consumption activity reports on Friday, while China releases its November PMIs and the Caixin indices.  

To top it all off, Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give much-watched speeches on their views of the global economy on Wednesday. 

Below are all the other major geopolitical and market events we are watching in the coming week:

Sunday, December 1, 2024

Global

·       South Africa takes the presidency of the G20 Presidency.  South African President Cyril Ramaphosa will bring the media on Monday, December 2, on the South African agenda for the year.

·       The U.S. assumes the Chair of the UN Security Council for the month of December.

·       COP16 of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification begins in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and goes through December 13.

·       Today is the first day of Advent.

·       Today is the first day of the meteorological winter int the Northern Hemisphere.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Joe Biden departs for a trip to Angola.  The purpose of the meeting is to improve US-African relations but also highlight a U.S. backed railway project.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwan’s President Willam Lai continues a tour of the Marshall Islands, Palau, and Tuvalu – all of whom have diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

·       Today is Kazakhstan’s First President’s Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Australia Commodity Prices (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Romania holds parliamentary elections.

·       Liechtenstein holds a referendum regarding a package of measures proposed by the Liechtenstein Employee Pension Foundation (SPL), directed at a state pension fund. 

·       Ursala von der Leyen formally begins her second term as European Commission President.

·       Today is Portugal Independence Day, a national holiday.

·       Today is Romania Independence Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) leaders will meet in Kuwait to discuss regional issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Freedom and Democracy Day in Chad, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, December 2, 2024

Global

·        The UN Security Council meets on the situation of children in Haiti.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly meets Baltic counterparts in Riga, Latvia.

·       Germany’s former Chancellor Angela Merkel presents her memoir 'Freedom' in a joint appearance with former President Barack Obama in Washington, D.C.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams will participate in a conversation organized by the Queens Chamber of Commerce.

·       Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)/ Business Confidence (November)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (October)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (November)/Fed Balance Sheet (November/27)

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       East Timor's Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao makes an official visit to Malaysia for talks with Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. The trip comes as the small country of about 1.3 million people prepares to join the Association of Southeast Asian Nations as its 11th member state. Malaysia chairs the bloc next year.

·       Nepali Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli visits China, casting off a tradition in which the Himalayan nation's leaders make India their first foreign trip after taking office. Oli is expected to request a waiver on a $216 million Chinese loan used to build the country's third international airport. The airport has not drawn any international flights since its opening last year.

·       The trial begins of Malaysian ex-prime minister Najib Razak on charges of taking bribes, money laundering linked to 1MDB scandal.

·       Today is Saba Day in Saba, celebrating the independence of the small island in the Netherlands Antilles.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Building Permits (October)

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (November)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (November)/ Building Permits (October)/ Company Gross Profits Q3/ Retail Sales (October)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (November)/ Business Inventories Q3/ Private House Approvals (October)/ RBA Jacobs Speech/ Commodity Prices (November)

·       Japan Capital Spending Q3/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (November)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ Tourist Arrivals (October)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Business Confidence (November)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (November)

·       Kazakhstan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ Wholesale Prices (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       French Prime Minister Michel Barnier faces a deadline set by French opposition leader Marine Le Pen to offer new, farther reaching budget concessions or face a no-confidence vote which could topple the government.

·       German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock visits China through December. On Sunday, before departing for Beijing, Baerbock strongly criticized China for supporting Russia in its war on Ukraine.

·       German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius visits Norway for talks with Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram.

·       Romania’s top court is expected to rule on whether to annul the first round of presidential elections (the second round is scheduled for December 8).   The challenge to the results were brought after allegations of external interference in the elections by Russia.

·       Germany’s IG Metall union calls for possible warning strikes in Volkswagen factories across the country.

·       UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will give his annual foreign policy speech at the Lord Mayor’s Banquet in the City of London.  Earlier in the day, Starmer hosts Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis for bilateral talks.

·       The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Employment and Social Policy) meets in Brussels through December 3.  Ministers will discuss EU demographic challenges, labor and skills shortages in the EU, and the traineeships directive.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in an EIB Group Climate and Environment Advisory Council in Luxembourg.

·       Bank of England Director of Financial Stability Strategy and Risk Lee Foulger gives a speech at  the Bloomberg UK Policy Series in London.

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Average Weekly Earnings Q3

·       Netherlands Retail Sales (October)/ NEVI Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (November)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (November)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Final (September)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (October)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)/ New Car Sales (November)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Unemployment Rate (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ New Car Registrations (November)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)/ New Car Registrations (November)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)/ ECB President Lagarde Speech/ Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Serbia GDP Growth Rate Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will give testimony at his ongoing corruption trial.  He is the first sitting Israeli prime minister to testify in a public corruption trial.

·       Today is UAE National Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The SenHabitat 2024 begins in Dakar, Senegal bringing together investors and government officials focused on real estate, housing, and construction

·       Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (November)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (November)

Tuesday, December 3, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler gives a speech on the Labor Market and Monetary Policy at the Detroit Economic Club in Detroit, Michigan.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee to give closing remarks before hybrid Midwest Agriculture Conference entitled "The Changing Landscape for Agricultural Inputs."

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (October)/ Gross Fixed Investment (September)

·       USA Redbook (November)/30/ JOLTs Job Openings (October)/ JOLTs Job Quits (October)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (December)/API Crude Oil Stock Change (November/29)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (November)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       US Space Force opens a unit at Yokota Air Base in Japan.

·       The 20th Tokyo-Beijing Forum takes place in Tokyo.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Import Prices Q3/ Export Prices Q3/ Terms of Trade Q3/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (December/03)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (November)

·       Australia Current Account Q3/ Net Exports Contribution to GDP Q3

·       Hong Kong: The British Chamber of Commerce in China will release its annual business sentiment survey, followed by the German chamber's confidence survey. 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO holds a two-day foreign ministers meeting in Brussels to discuss the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East.  NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will also receive His Majesty King Abdullah II ibn Al Hussein of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.

·       The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Health) meets in Brussels.  Ministers will adopt a recommendation on smoke- and aerosol-free environments, focusing on key outdoor areas like playgrounds and restaurant terraces, as well as emerging tobacco and related products such as e-cigarettes, heated tobacco products and heated herbal products.  The Council will also discuss the state of play of the revision of pharmaceutical legislation in the EU, focusing on regulatory incentives. The package aims to improve security of supply of medicines and prevent shortages.

·       The Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani ,begins a two-day state visit, accompanied by his first wife, Sheikha Jawaher bint Hamad bin Suhaim Al Thani.  King Charles and Queen Camilla will host the visitors at Buckingham Palace, and Starmer will meet the Emir for bilateral talks in Downing Street.

·       FT Global Banking Summit opens in London. Speakers across the two-day event include Barclays chief executive CS Venkatakrishnan and Deutsche Bank chief executive Christian Sewing.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a pre-recorded conversation with Daniele Manca at GeoEconomy Talk organized by RCS Academy, the Business School of RCS MediaGroup, in collaboration with Il Corriere della Sera in Milan, Italy.

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (November)

·       Romania PPI (October)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (November)/ PPI (November)

·       Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (November)

·       France Budget Balance (October)

·       Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech

·       Slovakia Real Wages Q3

·       Spain Unemployment Change (November)/ Tourist Arrivals (October)

·       Ireland Construction Output Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (November)

·       Qatar Financial Centre PMI (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (November)

·       South Africa GDP Growth Rate Q3

Wednesday, December 4, 2024

Global

·       The UN General Assembly meets on the situation in Gaza. 

·       The OECD releases its Economic Outlook.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell participates in a moderated discussion at the New York Times DealBook Summit in New York.

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem to speak before the Bloomberg/Global Interdependence Center College of Central Bankers Symposium.

·       Brazil Industrial Production (October)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (November)

·       USA Fed Beige Book/MBA Mortgage Market Index (November/29)/ ADP Employment Change (November)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (November)/ ISM Services PMI (November)/ ISM Services Business/ Employment/ New Orders/ Prices Activity (November)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (November/29)

·       Canada Labor Productivity Q3/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (November)

·       Colombia Exports (October)/ PPI (November)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Australia Ai Group Industry & Construction & Manufacturing Index (November)/ Judo Bank Services PMI Final (November)/ Judo Bank Composite PMI Final (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q3/ GDP Chain Price Index Q3/ GDP Final Consumption Q3

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (November)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Services & Composite PMI Final (November)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (November)

·       China Caixin Services & Composite PMI (November)

·       India HSBC Services & Composite PMI Final (November)

·       Kazakhstan S&P Global Services PMI (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK City minister and Economic Secretary to the Treasury Tulip Siddiq and Chinese ambassador to the UK Zeguang Zheng speak at the OMFIF China-UK Investor forum in London.

·       The European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee will hear from Christine Lagarde, first in her capacity as President of the European Central Bank and then as Chair of the European Systemic Risk Board. Economic governance, geo-political risks, and the cost of living are all expected to feature prominently in the discussions. The hearings will be followed by another debate with Dominique Laboureix, Chair of the Single Resolution Board 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks at the Financial Times Global Boardroom event in London.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a virtual speech followed by a Q&A session at the 7th conference on behavioral financial regulations and policies organized by Herbert Simon Society in Milan, Italy.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Russia S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (November)

·       Spain HCOB Services & Composite PMI (November)

·       Italy HCOB Services & Composite PMI (November)

·       France HCOB Services & Composite PMI (November)

·       Germany HCOB Services & Composite PMI (November)/ New Car Registrations (November)

·       Euro Area HCOB Services & Composite PMI (November)/ PPI (October)

·       UK S&P Global Services & Composite PMI Final (November)

·       Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Prel (November)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (November)

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Africa Investment Forum begins in Rabat, Morocco and runs through Friday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (November)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (November)/ Consumer Confidence Q4

·       Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (November)

·       Ghana S&P Global PMI (November)

·       Nigeria Balance of Trade (July)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Balance of Trade (September)

Thursday, December 5, 2024 

Global

·       Ministers from Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (Opec+) meet in Vienna, Austria.  The meeting was originally scheduled for December 1 but was moved to today. Ministers are going to consider reviving halted production beginning in January.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to speak before in-person Charlotte Regional Business Alliance 2024 Economic Outlook event.

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (November)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Initial Jobless Claims (November)/30/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (November/29)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/04)/ Fed Balance Sheet (December/04)

·       Brazil Car Production (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Ivey PMI s.a (November)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Malaysia Motor Show begins in Kula Lumpur.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Toyoaki Nakamura gives a speech in Hiroshima to local business leaders.

·       South Korea GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (November)/30/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (November)/30/ BOJ Nakamura Speech

·       Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (November)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (October)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council (Transport) meets in Brussels.  Ministers will be asked to approve the Council’s position (‘general approach’) on several legislative files: the directive on driving disqualifications, which forms part of the ‘road safety’ package, the regulation on passenger rights in the context of multimodal journeys and the regulation on enforcement of passenger rights in the EU. The Council will also hold a policy debate on air passenger rights and take note of a progress report on the combined transport directive. 

·       In Lyon, France, the Festival of Lights will be held. Originally aimed at expressing gratitude towards Mary, mother of Jesus, kicks off with hundreds of thousands of spectators expected to attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Executive Director Victoria Cleland gives a speech at the Fintech Connect event in London on ‘The future road map of Bank of England’s real time gross settlement (RTGS) service.’

·       European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner gives a speech at the IIF Colloquium on European Banking Regulation & Supervision in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Germany Factory Orders (October)/ HCOB Construction PMI (November)

·       Romania Retail Sales (October)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Prel (October)/ Retail Sales (October)

·       France Industrial Production (October)/ HCOB Construction PMI (November)

·       Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Retail Sales (October)

·       Spain Industrial Production (October)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (November)/ Retail Sales (October)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (November)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (November)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (November)/ BoE Greene Speech

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (October)

·       Ireland Current Account Q3/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ GNP Q3

·       Serbia PPI (November)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/29)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Jordan PPI (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Current Account Q3

·       Kenya Interest Rate Decision

Friday, December 6, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Mercosur Summit begins in Uruguay, bringing leaders from the South American trading bloc together to discuss trade.  Last week, the French parliament dealt a tough blow to a potential EU-Mercosur agreement, siding with French farmers who opposed the deal and voting 484 to 70 against signing a deal.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman gives a speech at the Missouri Bankers Association Executive Management Conference (Virtual)

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly to participate in "Emerging Technology and the Economy" conversation hosted by the Hoover Institution.

·       Chile Inflation Rate (November)

·       Mexico Auto Exports & Production (November)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (November)/ Participation Rate (November)/ Full & Part Time Employment Chg (November)/ Average Hourly Wages (November)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (November)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (October)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (November)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (November)

·       USA Unemployment Rate (November)/ Participation Rate (November)/ Non-Farm and Manufacturing and Government Payrolls (November)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate/Michigan Current Conditions Prel (December)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (December/06)/ Consumer Credit Change (October)/ Used Car Prices (November)/ Total Vehicle Sales (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (October)

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (October)/ Household Spending (October)/ Overtime Pay (October)/ Coincident Index Prel (October)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (October)

·       Australia Home Loans (October)/ Investment Lending for Homes (October)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Tourist Arrivals (November)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (November)

·       India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/29)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russia's President Vladimir Putin visits Minsk, Belarus to validate security concept of the Russian-Belarusian Union.

·       The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) begins a two-day ministerial meeting in Malta.  Foreign ministers will meet to review and address the security situation in the Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian area, as well as to evaluate the Organization's work in all its fields of activity.

·       The EU Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council (Telecom) meets in Brussels.  Ministers will approve conclusions on the EU Agency for cybersecurity (ENISA) and on the Commission’s White Paper ‘How to master Europe’s digital infrastructure needs?’. They will also hold a policy debate on the digital decade 2030 objectives and targets in light of recent technological changes. Over an informal lunch, ministers will discuss ways to improve EU coordination and enhance the effectiveness of actions within the International Telecommunication Union (ITU). Finally, the incoming Polish presidency will inform the Council on its work program for the first semester 2025.

·       Today is Finland Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Netherlands Household Consumption (October)

·       Germany Industrial Production (October)

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (November)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (November)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (October)/ Budget Balance (November)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Current Account (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Italy Retail Sales (October)

·       Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Employment Change Q3

·       Greece Balance of Trade (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) holds its Manama Dialogue in Bahrain.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (November)

·       Jordan Unemployment Rate Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Ghana General Elections

Saturday, December 7, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The 22nd Doha Forum on Democracy, Development and Free Trade begins and runs through December 8. The theme of this year’s two-day event is “The Innovation Imperative.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Ghana holds both presidential and parliamentary elections.  However, the government is facing an unprecedented shutdown in advance of the election unless they pass a provisional budget in advance of the election.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 8, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Romania holds  its presidential election run-off.  

·       Notre-Dame Cathedral official reopens to the public after a catastrophic fire five years ago.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Opening of the DWS Rep Office in Colombia

A Superb Trip to Bogotá Meeting with Colombia’s Financial Leaders As Colombia Increasingly Becomes a Central Focus of Global Investors

From left to right: DWS’ Aiviel Sanchez,  Ana María Rodríguez, Stella Gonzales Vigil, Mary Wallace, and myself at the DWS Rep Office Reception held at the J.W. Marriott in Bogáta on November 19, 2024.

It was my great pleasure and honor to visit Colombia last week for meetings in Bogáta and Cartenga, all arranged by DWS. Having the opportunity to meet with the leadership of the nation’s pensions funds, bank insurance fund, and other financial leaders was both timely and fascinating. Colombia is emerging as a major hub for technology in the region. Foreign investors are increasingly looking to Colombia as a superb choice to invest for the long term.

While there, I was honored to speak at the DWS Rep Office opening reception. DWS is expanding its operations throughout the region and in particular in Colombia. Colombian investors are deeply focused on the geopolitical developments - particularly between the US and China as well as the upcoming review of the USMCA. There was a lot to discuss with the attendees - and I suspect there will be even more to cover in the months to come.

The Global Week Ahead

France’s Fragile Coalition Government Faces A No-Confidence Vote, G7 Foreign Ministers Meet in Italy to Discuss the Situation in Ukraine and Israel, Washington Goes Quiet to Celebrate Thanksgiving, and Putin Travels to Kazakhstan

November 24 - December 1, 2024

While Washington goes (relatively) quiet this week before the Thanksgiving holiday, plenty of important events are taking place worldwide.  First, we would note a high-stakes meeting on Monday between French Prime Minister Michel Barnier and French right-wing leader Marine Le Pen to try to hammer out an agreement on the proposed 2025 budget.  Le Pen has threatened to call for a no-confidence vote, which would likely shatter the French government's fragile coalition.  Le Pen is also awaiting a verdict on the criminal case against her in French court this week – adding further tension in Paris. 

Meanwhile, the G7 foreign ministers gather in Italy to discuss Ukraine and the Middle East.  We would not the next time the G7 foreign ministers meet, it will be a very different group, with President-elect Trump's Secretary of State-designate Marco Rubio there and likely new foreign ministers representing Germany, Canada, and perhaps Japan.  All are likely to lean more to the right politically than the current group.

Kazakhstan will be hosting the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) Heads of State Summit, and Russian President Vladimir Putin will attend, where he seeks to sign a number of energy deals to boost Russian oil and gas exports.  His visit comes as his War on Ukraine is escalating to new levels, with Ukrainian forces empowered to use US and other NATO member-made advanced missiles against Russian (and North Korean) forces.   Early reports from the battlefield suggest the weapons are having a deadly effect on Russian forces, killing at least one senior Russian commander and hundreds of North Korean troops.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, US markets will be quiet, with Thanksgiving celebrated on Thursday and markets closed.  However, a number of important data reports will be released this week, as the October PCE and personal income and consumption data will be released on Wednesday, which will also be watched in advance of the upcoming December 18th Fed meeting.  Additionally, Fed FOMC minutes are being released on Tuesday.  The Conference Board's consumer confidence report will be released on Tuesday, too. 

In Asia this week, Japan releases CPI, Labor market, and several other major reports.  And in Europe, the European Central Bank releases its consumer expectations on Friday.  There will be a Eurozone inflation print on Friday.   Germany will see the release of the Ifo survey on Monday and retail sales on Friday.

Below is our weekly report of all the major political and economic issues and events we are watching closely this week.  Happy Thanksgiving!

Sunday, November 24, 2024 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Uruguay holds presidential runoff elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Senior Minister of Singapore Lee Hsien Loong visits China. It will be a six-day visit and his first visit since stepping down as Prime Minister in May.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Romania holds presidential elections. Surveys show that the current leading candidates are not backed by the governing Social Democrats (PSD) and the Liberals (PNL).  PSD and PNL will likely agree on a joint candidate ahead of the vote, with current Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu of the PSD being the most likely candidate. A second round will be held on 8 December.

·       Switzerland holds a vote on two referendums including one the 13th OASI pension payment – adding a 13th month of pension payments. And one raising the retirement age this year.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Guinea Bissau holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, November 25, 2024

Global

·       G7 Foreign Ministers meet in Fuggi and Anagni, Italy.

·      The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question, followed by consultations.

·      The 29th Conference of States Parties to the Chemical Weapons Convention, seeking cuts to such munitions, begins in The Hague and continues until Friday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US President Joe Biden hosts traditional pardon of a Thanksgiving turkey.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (November)/ Current Account (October)/ Foreign Direct Investment (October)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (October)

·       USA CB Consumer Confidence (November)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (November)/ Chicago Fed National Activity Index (October)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (October)

·       Mexico Current Account Q3

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim meets his South Korean counterpart, Yoon Suk Yeol, during a three-day official visit expected to see bilateral ties elevated to a strategic partnership. The two countries are aiming to finalize a free trade agreement in 2025.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Retail Sales Q3

·       Singapore GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (September)/ Leading Index (September)

·       Japan Coincident Index Final (September)/ Leading Economic Index Final (September)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ M2 Money Supply (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       French Prime Minister Michel Barnier meets with far-right leader Marine Le Pen.  Le Pen has threatened to see a no-confidence vote that would break up the fragile coalition government over the proposed 2025 budget. Meanwhile, Le Pen will learn the verdict date of the embezzlement trial against her on November 27.

·       German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius meets counterparts from France, Britain, Poland and Italy.

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz receives Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov in Berlin.

·       The European Economic Area Council will meet in Brussels. will discuss the overall functioning of the EEA Agreement and hold an orientation debate on “Enhancing Europe’s competitiveness and resilience: the role of the EEA cooperation.”  The meeting will be chaired by Espen Barth Eide, Minister for Foreign Affairs of Norway.

·       The EU Education, Youth, Culture and Sport Council meets in Brussels through November 26.  Ministers will discuss expected to approve conclusions on providing ‘glocal’ opportunities for young people living in rural and remote areas and will discuss the evolving demographic trends shaping opportunities for rural youth.  They will also seek to adopt a recommendation on attractive and sustainable careers in higher education and will hold a policy debate on boosting future-proof skills and competitiveness through higher education.

·       The Energy Intelligence Forum takes place in London through November 27.

·       German  Ex-chancellor Angela Merkel launches her memoir 'Freedom: Memories 1954 - 2021' (Freiheit: Erinnerungen 1954 – 2021).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the keynote speech at the Bank of England Watchers’ Conference 2024 in London.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Clare Lombardelli gives a speech at the 3rd Bank of England Watchers Conference in London.

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Swati Dhingra will participate in a panel at the 3rd Bank of England Watchers’ Conference on “inflation dynamics” in London.

·       Turkey Business Confidence (November)/ Capacity Utilization (November)

·       Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls Q3

·       Spain PPI (October)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate/ Current Conditions/ Expectations (November)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (October)/ Corporate Sector Wages (October)/ Employment Growth (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ PPI (October)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (November)/ Tourist Arrivals (October)

·       Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (October)

·       Ghana Interest Rate Decision

Tuesday, November 26, 2024 

Global

·       The UN Security Council meets on the protection of civilians in conflict. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (November)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (October)

·       US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Markets Committee minutes released/Redbook (November/23)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (September)/ House Price Index (September)/ New Home Sales (October)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (November)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (November)/ Money Supply (October)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (November/29)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (November/22)/ Building Permits Final (October)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The APAC Wind Energy Summit takes place in Seoul, South Korea. Asia-Pacific policymakers and industry leaders will discuss challenges in wind energy development as concern grows about how the sector will be impacted under a second Trump presidency in the United States. The three-day APAC Wind Energy Summit, hosted by the Global Wind Energy Council, highlights the region's key role in hitting global targets to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030.

·       The 2nd China International Supply Chain Expo takes place in Beijing.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Indonesia Property Price Index Q3

·       Singapore Industrial Production (October)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       France’s National Assembly holds a debate and vote on the prospect of a trade deal between the EU and South America’s Mercosur bloc, which is strongly opposed by French farmers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives a speech followed by Q&A at the EBF's Executive Committee Meeting in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Poland Retail Sales (October)

·       Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (September)

·       Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, November 27, 2024 

Global

·       The U.N. Environment Programme will convene the fifth session of its Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee in the South Korean city of Busan in pursuit of an international legally binding instrument on plastic pollution. Environmentalists say policymakers need to commit to cutting production of plastic, not just reusing or recycling it. A lack of consensus on finer details and opposition from major petroleum-producing countries could hinder efforts to reach an agreement.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (October)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (November/22)/ PCE Price Index (October)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (October)/ Initial Jobless Claims (November/23)/ Chicago PMI (November)/ Pending Home Sales (October)/ EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (November/22)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (November/26)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (November/22)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indonesians vote in nationwide regional polls to elect provincial governors, city leaders and regents. More than 3,000 candidates are set to compete across nearly 550 regions, including in the newly formed provinces South Papua, Central Papua and Highland Papua.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (November)

·       Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (October)/ Construction Work Done Q3

·       New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision/ RBNZ Press Conference

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (October)

·       Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (October)

·       Malaysia PPI (October)

·       India M3 Money Supply (November/15)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russia's President Vladimir Putin expected to visit Kazakhstan for bilateral meetings.  He will stay on for the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) Heads of State Summit through November 28.

·       The Nordic-Baltic Summit will be held through November 28 in Sweden.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives introductory remarks at the opening dinner of a Conference on “Macroeconomic modelling frontiers for research and policy” organized by the ECB in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence DEC

·       France Consumer Confidence (November)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (October)/ Jobseekers Total (October)

·       Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (November)

·       Russia Unemployment Rate (October)/ Business Confidence (November)/ Corporate Profits (September)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Real Wage Growth (September)/ Retail Sales (October)/ GDP (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Namibia holds general elections.

·       Tanzania holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, November 28, 2024

Global

· The World Trade Organization meets to advance the selection process for the next Director-General.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Thanksgiving in the US.  Markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (November)/ Bank Lending (October)/ PPI (October)/ Net Payrolls (October)

·       Canada Current Account Q3/ Average Weekly Earnings (September)

·       Mexico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Asian Development Bank announces its new president to succeed the outgoing Masatsugu Asakawa. Japan's former currency czar, Masato Kanda, was the sole candidate vying for the bank's top job. His expected appointment marks a continuation of the longstanding practice of the multilateral lender being led by a Japanese national since its founding in 1966.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (November/23)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (November/23)

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (November)

·       Australia Building Capital Expenditure Q3/ Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure Q3/ Private Capital Expenditure Q3/ RBA Bullock Speech

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU General Affairs Council (Cohesion) will meet in Brussels.  Ministers will hold a policy debate on strengthening the key assets of cohesion policy and how to improve the shared management of cohesion funds in line with the principle of subsidiarity in the future.

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (internal market and industry) meets in Brussels.  The Council will exchange views on better regulation in the EU. Ministers will be invited to discuss the current state of play of the better regulation agenda – also in connection with the Draghi report – and to identify pathways for improvement.

·       Italian trade unions will hold a general strike over the proposed Italian budget.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member  Frank Elderson gives introductory remarks at an online webinar "Advancements in Nature-Related Risks and Climate-Nature Scenarios for Financial Decision-Making" organized by NatureFinance and the European Central Bank.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a speech at the 25th anniversary of Euro 50 Group at Banque de France in Paris, France.

·       Great Britain Car Production (October)

·       Netherlands Business Confidence (November)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (October)/ Economic Confidence Index (November)/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/22)

·       Euro Area to Households & Companies (October)/ M3 Money Supply (October)/ Economic Sentiment (November)/ Consumer Confidence Final (November)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (November)/ Industrial Sentiment (November)/ Selling Price Expectations (November)/ Services Sentiment (November)

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (November)/ Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (November)/ Business Confidence (November)

·       Germany Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (November)/ Bavaria CPI (November)/ Brandenburg CPI (November)/ Hesse CPI (November)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (November)/ Saxony CPI (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)

·       Italy Business Confidence (November)/ Consumer Confidence (November)/ PPI (October)

·       Poland GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (October)

·       Greece Total Credit (October)

·       Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate (November)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Wholesale Prices (October)/ Parliamentary Election

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (September)/ Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (October)

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (October)/ Private Bank Lending (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (October)

·       Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (November)

Friday, November 29, 2024

Global

·       The UN celebrates the International Day of Solidarity with the Palestinian People. 

·        Today is “Black Friday” the beginning of the of the Christmas sales season.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Joe Biden is expected to visit Angola.

·       Today is “Black Friday,” the traditional beginning of the Christmas shopping season.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (October)/ Nominal Budget Balance (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Annualized Q3/ Budget Balance (September)

·       Chile Copper Production (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Manufacturing Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (October)/ Cement Production (October)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (October)

·       USA Fed Balance Sheet (November/27)

·       Mexico Fiscal Balance (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan’s parliament returns to work.  Debate gets underway as Japan's newly elected lawmakers return to the Diet after last month's snap elections. A supplementary budget bill will be among the items at the top of their agenda, with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba delivering a policy speech Friday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (November)

·       South Korea Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (October)/ Jobs/applications ratio (October)/ Tokyo CPI (November)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Consumer Confidence (November)/ Housing Starts (October)/ Construction Orders (October)

·       Australia Housing Credit (October)/ Private Sector Credit (October)/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (November)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (October)/ Export Prices (October)/ Import Prices (October)/ PPI (October)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Tourist Arrivals (November)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (October)/ Current Account (October)/ Private Consumption (October)/ Private Investment (October)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (October)

·       Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (October)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (November)/ PPI (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       India Government Budget Value (October)/ Bank Loan Growth (November/15)/ Deposit Growth (November/15)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/22)/ Infrastructure Output (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Ireland holds general elections to elect the 34th Dáil (parliament).

·       UK members of Parliament will MPs debate and vote on a bill to legalize assisted dying in England and Wales.

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Research and Space) will meet in Brussels. Ministers are expected to adopt Council conclusions on strengthening the competitiveness of the EU and overcoming the fragmentation of the European Research Area based on the experiences implementing the ERA Policy Agenda (2022-2024).  They will also adopt Council conclusions on a potential Europe-wide research and innovation initiative on advancing sustainable natural resource management, food systems security and the deployment of the bioeconomy, harnessing the potential of Central and Eastern Europe (BIOEAST, partnership). BIOEAST (the Central-Eastern European Initiative for Knowledge-based Agriculture, Aquaculture and Forestry in the Bioeconomy) was established in 2015 to establish a strategic research and innovation framework to work towards sustainable bioeconomy in Central and Eastern European countries.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a speech at the Encuentro de Economia organized by Fundació Internacional Olof Palme in Barcelona, Spain.

·       Netherlands Inflation Rate (November)

·       France Private Non-Farm Payrolls Q3

·       Germany Retail Sales (October)/ Import Prices (October)/ Unemployed Persons (November)/ Unemployment Change (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Turkey GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Financial Stability Report

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (November)/ BoE Consumer Credit (October)/ Mortgage Approvals (October)/ Mortgage Lending (October)/ M4 Money Supply (October)/ Net Lending to Individuals (October)

·       Hungary PPI (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ KOF Leading Indicators (November)

·       France Inflation Rate (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Household Consumption (October)/ PPI (October)

·       Spain Retail Sales (October)/ Current Account (September)

·       Italy Industrial Sales (September)/ Inflation Rate (November)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (November)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (November)

·       Euro Area Inflation Rate (November)/ CPI Flash (November)

·       Greece PPI (October)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Unemployment Rate Q3

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (October)

·       Ukraine Current Account (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (October)/ Private Sector Credit (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Budget Balance (October)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (November)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (October)

Saturday, November 30, 2024 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te is due to depart for a tour of Taipei's remaining Pacific allies -- the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu and Palau. His office has yet to confirm plans for potential stopovers, possibly in the U.S. The trip could elicit an angry response from China, which has exerted heavy pressure on Lai since he took office in May, with two rounds of major military drills surrounding Taiwan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Retail Sales (October)

·       China NBS Manufacturing & Non- Manufacturing PMI (November)/ NBS General PMI (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Iceland holds snap parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 1, 2024 

Global

·       Ministers from Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (Opec+) meet in Vienna, Austria.

·       South Africa takes the presidency of the G20 Presidency.

·       Today is the first day of Advent.

·       Today is the first day of the meteorological winter int the Northern Hemisphere.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Australia Commodity Prices (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Romania holds parliamentary elections.

·       Liechtenstein holds a referendum regarding a package of measures proposed by the Liechtenstein Employee Pension Foundation (SPL), directed at a state pension fund. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) leaders will meet in Kuwait to discuss regional issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

The G20 Meets in Brazil,  The IAEA Board of Governors Meet to Discuss Iran’s Nuclear Program, the 1000-Day Anniversary of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine, and President-elect Trump Continues to Name His Cabinet

November 17 - 24, 2024

It will be another busy week geopolitically as G20 leaders gather in Brazil for the annual G20 Summit.  While no major breakthroughs are expected at the Summit, it will be the last G20 meeting for President Joe Biden and will also lead to a number of bilateral meetings between Chinese President Xi and other leaders.

Also this week, the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency will meet in Vienna, Austria, to discuss the status of Iran’s ongoing – and accelerating – development of nuclear weapons.  IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi just returned from meetings in Iran and will report his findings to the Board.   The Board is also likely to discuss the situation in Ukraine and the risk posed to nuclear power plants in Ukraine due to Russia’s war on Ukraine.  This coming week will also mark the 1000 day since Russia’s invasion.  EU foreign ministers will meet in Brussels this week to discuss the situation, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will address the European Parliament to mark the grim milestone.

In the U.S., President-elect Donald Trump is expected to continue his rapid-fire announcements of cabinet and other senior staff picks.  So far, Trump is moving at a historically fast pace in assembling his team and is likely to push the incoming Senate to push through required confirmation votes in advance of his inauguration on January 20th (the new Congress is sworn in on January 3rd).

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, markets will be keenly focused on several major central bank speeches, including European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s remarks on Monday and Friday and the speech of the Central Bank of Japan Kazuo Ueda on Monday.

Among the major economic data reports, the U.S. Redbook is out Tuesday, initial jobless claims are out Thursday, and the Michigan Consumer Report is out Friday.  In Europe, UK consumer confidence figures and retail sales are out Friday.  In Asia, Japan releases trade balance figures on Wednesday and inflation data on Thursday.

Below is what else we are watching closely around the world this coming week:

Sunday, November 17, 2024

Global

·       The G20 Leaders’ Summit takes place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron visits Argentina.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China FDI (YTD) (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier gives a speech at parliament on Remembrance Day attended by his Romanian counterpart Klaus Iohannis in Berlin, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 1st Est Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Senegal holds snap parliamentary elections.

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Nigeria.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, November 18, 2024 

Global

·       The G20 Leaders’ Summit begins in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

·       The Council of the International Maritime Organization meets in London.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the protection of civilians in Sudan. Afterwards, it is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East. In the afternoon at 3:30 p.m., it is scheduled to hold a briefing on the maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine.

·       The International Atomic Energy Commissions holds is quarterly Board of Governors meeting in Vienna, Austria.  The main focus of their meeting is expected to be Iran’s ongoing development of nuclear weapons.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee to give welcome remarks before the Financial Markets Group Fall Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

·       Chile Current Account Q3/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Canada Housing Starts (October)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (September)

·       USA NAHB Housing Market Index (November)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (September)/ Foreign Bond Investment (September)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (September)

·       Colombia GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Hong Kong's Monetary Authority hosts its third Global Financial Leaders' Investment Summit, bringing together Wall Street dealmakers and investors. It is Hong Kong's flagship event for courting global capital, as the city seeks to maintain its international financial hub status amid geopolitical tensions between China and the West.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo gives a speech in Nagoya, Japan.

·       New Zealand Services & Composite NZ PCI (October)/ PPI Input & Output Q3

·       Japan Machinery Orders (September)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Thailand GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production (October)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Services PMI (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels. EU Foreign affairs ministers will discuss the state of affairs in Ukraine, Georgia, EU-US relations, the situation in the Middle East, and the Horn of Africa.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will receive the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Germany, Annalena Baerbock, at his official residence in Brussels.  He will also meet with the Prime Minister of Romania, Marcel Ciolacu, at NATO Headquarters in Brussels.

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels. The ministers will discuss the situation of agricultural markets and commodities, a recurring topic on the Council's agenda. In this context, the presidency will also present an 'other business' item on the outcome of the sectoral debates it organized on the current challenges facing the different agricultural sectors and their future perspectives.  The Ukrainian Minister for Agrarian Policy and Food, Vitalii Koval, is expected to join the ministers prior to their discussion and to address the Council.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU ministers in Budapest responsible for demographic issues through November 19.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a speech on "Les enjeux économiques et humains d'une ère en mutation" at the "Les Essentiels des Bernardins" in Paris, France

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives the opening speech at the 27th Euro Finance Week "Setting the course for 2025" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the SUERF Marjolin lecture at the conference “Inflation, Inflation Expectations, and Policy: New Perspectives” organized by Banca d’Italia in Rome, Italy.

·       Switzerland Industrial Production Q3

·       Euro Area / Balance of Trade (September)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (September)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (October)

·       Belarus GDP (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)/ M3 Money Supply (October)

Tuesday, November 19, 2024 

Global

·       The G20 Summit continues in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

·       Today is the 1000 day since Russia invaded Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In the House of Representatives, Democrats will vote on their leadership.

·       A judge in New York will consider dismissing charges against President-elect Trump over hush money payments.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Inflation Rate (October)/ CPI Median (October)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (October)

·       USA Building Permits Prel (October)/ Housing Starts (October)/ Redbook (November/16)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (November/15)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       A Hong Kong court is due to hand down sentences in the city's biggest national security trial. The case concerns the so-called Hong Kong 47 -- nearly four dozen democrats who were charged for holding unofficial primaries in July 2020 to select candidates for the city's Legislative Council election. Of the group, 45 were convicted of "conspiracy to commit subversion" under the strict national security law Beijing forced upon the city four years ago. The sentences, which could be as severe as life in prison, will be followed the next day by the resumption of another closely watched trial -- that of jailed pro-democracy media tycoon Jimmy Lai.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia RBA Meeting Minutes

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (November/19)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky addresses special session of European Parliament from Kyiv marking the 1000 day of the Ukraine War.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will participate in a meeting of the Foreign Affairs Council of the European Union (EU) in Defence Ministers’ format. The meeting will take place at the Europa building of the Council of the EU, in Brussels.

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss the upcoming December European Council, the annual rule of law dialogue, and other issues.

·       Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey appears before parliament's Treasury Committee.

·       There will be a National Farmers Union rally in London, protesting about new government policies, in particular applying inheritance tax to agricultural land.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives a speech at the 10th Green Finance Forum "Innovate in nature" during 27th Euro Finance Week "Setting the course for 2025" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (October)

·       Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (October)

·       Euro Area Current Account (September)/ Inflation Rate Final (October)/ CPI Final (October)/ Labour Cost Index Flash Q3

·       Italy Current Account (September)

·       Hungry Deposit Interest Rate (November)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel holds local elections for people in areas close to the border of Gaza and Lebanon who were unable to vote in February.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, November 20, 2024 

Global

·       The International Network of AI Safety Institute meets in San Francisco to discuss global safety issues around artificial intelligence will take place. The network members include Australia, Canada, the EU, France, Japan, Kenya, South Korea, Singapore, the UK and the US.

·       The UN Security Council holds closed-door meeting on Lebanon.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazilian President Lula will hold bilateral meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

·       Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visits Argentina for meetings with President Javier Milei.

·       French President Emmanuel Macron visits Chile.

·        India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Guyana.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Approach to Agency Policymaking” at The Forum Club of the Palm Beaches, West Palm Beach, Florida.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (November/15)/ MBA Purchase Index (November/15)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (November/15)/ EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change (November/15)/ EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change (November/15)

·       Colombia Imports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (October)/ Leading Indicator (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Defense ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meet in Laos for talks, as they consider new members for the bloc's expanded defense meeting platform, known as the ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting-Plus (ADMM-Plus). The platform currently has eight non-ASEAN members -- Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, Russia, South Korea and the U.S. -- while France, Canada and the U.K. have expressed interest in joining.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (October)

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (October)

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (November)

·       Kazakhstan Business Confidence Q3

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (October)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate (November)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (October)/ Current Account Q3

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russia’s Upper House of parliament begins considering a law banning promotion of childless lifestyles.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the welcoming address at the ECB conference on financial stability and macroprudential policy 2024 in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives the dinner speech at the ECB conference on financial stability and macroprudential policy 2024 in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden gives a speech on monetary policy at the University of Leeds.

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (November)/ Residential Property Prices (September)

·       Germany PPI (October)

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (October)/ PPI Input & Output (October)/ Retail Price Index (October)

·       Euro Area ECB Financial Stability Review/ Construction Output (September)/ Negotiated Wage Growth Q3

·       Greece Current Account (September)

·       Italy Construction Output (September)

·       Russia PPI (October)

·       Slovakia Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (October)

·       Oman Inflation Rate (October)

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (November)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Southern Africa regional bloc, the South Africa Development Community Summit, will hold a summit to discuss the post-electoral crisis in Mozambique.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (October)/ Business Confidence Q4/ Retail Sales (September)

Thursday, November 21, 2024

Global

·       The BRICS International Municipal Forum Economic Congress meets in St. Petersburg, Russia.

·       The UN Security Council meets on Syria.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Washington Post holds its 3rd Annual Global Women’s Summit in Washington, D.C.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will give a speech on “Banks and Artificial Intelligence” at the 2024 FinRegLab AI Symposium in Washington, D.C.

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack to participate in conversation before the 2024 Financial Stability Conference: Emerging Risks in a Time of Interconnectedness and Innovation, hosted by the Cleveland Fed and the Office of Financial Research.

·       Mexico Retail Sales (September)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (October)/ PPI (October)/ Raw Materials Prices (October)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (November/16)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index/ Employment/ New Orders/ Prices Paid/ Business Conditions/ Manufacturing Index (November)/ Existing Home Sales (October)/ CB Leading Index (October)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (November/15)/ Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Index (November)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (November/20)/ Fed Balance Sheet (November/20)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (November)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (October)

·       Paraguay PPI (October)

·       Peru Current Account Q3/GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Defense ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meet in Laos for talks, as they consider new members for the bloc's expanded defense meeting platform, known as the ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting-Plus (ADMM-Plus). The platform currently has eight non-ASEAN members -- Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, Russia, South Korea and the U.S. -- while France, Canada and the U.K. have expressed interest in joining.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo speaks at the Paris Europlace Financial Forum 2024 being held in Tokyo.

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (November/16)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (November/16)

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (October)

·       Indonesia Current Account Q3

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (October)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Brussels.  They will discuss the future of the EU’s trade policy.

·       Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets other officials to discuss Caspian sea cooperation in Moscow.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives the welcoming
remarks at the Euro Cyber Resilience Board for pan-European Financial Infrastructures meeting (ECRB) in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will give the keynote speech at the CEBRA International Finance and Macroeconomics conference "The Role of Central Banks and International Financial Institutions in the Transition Towards a Low-Carbon Economy" in Luxembourg.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a policy panel at 27th Annual Research Conference “The Macroeconomic Effects of Geopolitical Uncertainty” organized by De Nederlandsche Bank in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives a speech at the University of Cyprus in Nicosia, Cyprus.

·       Netherlands Consumer Confidence (November)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

·       European Union New Car Registrations (October)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (November)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending & Borrowing Rate (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/15)

·       Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing (October)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (November)

·       France Business Confidence (November)/ Business Climate Indicator (November)

·       Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash (November)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (November)/ PPI (October)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (October)

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (October)/ Total Credit Growth (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (September)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, November 22, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canada hosts Nato parliamentary assembly annual session in Montreal, featuring 281 parliament members from 32 Nato member states addressing topics on the Euro-Atlantic Defence and security agenda.

·       The Halifax International Security Forum begins in Halifax and runs through November 24.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman gives a speech on Artificial Intelligence at the 27th Annual Symposium on Building the Financial System of the 21st Century in Washington, D.C.

·       Chile PPI (October)

·       Mexico GDP Growth Rate Final Q3/ Economic Activity (September)/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (November)

·       Canada Retail Sales (September)

·       USA S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations/ Current Conditions/ Inflation Expectations Final (November)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (November/22)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Judo Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)

·       Japan Inflation Rate (October)/ Jibun Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)

·       Singapore Current Account Q3/ Inflation Rate (October)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (October)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (October)

·       India HSBC Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/15)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Belarus Foreign Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov hosts Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov for bilateral meetings.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the keynote speech at the 34th European Banking Congress "Out of the Comfort Zone: Europe and the New World Order" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks at the Foro Observatorio Económico organized by El Confidencial/MAPFRE in Madrid, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen participates in a fireside chat at the JPMorgan European Financials Conference in London, UK.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates on Panel 3 "Monetary policy" at colloquium in honor of Claudio Borio in Basel, Switzerland.

·       Great Britain GfK Consumer Confidence (November)/ Retail Sales (October)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)

·       Germany GDP Growth Rate Final Q3/ HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (September)

·       Turkey Tourist Arrivals (October)

·       France HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)

·       Poland M3 Money Supply (October)

·       Slovakia Current Account (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana PPI (October)

·       Nigeria Balance of Trade (July)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Balance of Trade (September)

Saturday, November 23, 2024 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Ukraine holds International Holodomor Memorial Day, commemorating the estimated  7 to 10 million people killed during the 1932-33 Holodomor (“murder by hunger”).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The 2024 African Economic Conference will be held in Gaborone, Botswana, to explore ways to secure Africa’s economic future.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, November 24, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Uruguay holds presidential runoff elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Romania holds presidential elections. Surveys show that the current leading candidates are not backed by the governing Social Democrats (PSD) and the Liberals (PNL).  PSD and PNL will likely agree on a joint candidate ahead of the vote, with current Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu of the PSD being the most likely candidate. A second round will be held on 8 December.

·       Switzerland holds a vote on two referendums including one the 13th OASI pension payment – adding a 13th month of pension payments. And one raising the retirement age this year.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Guinea Bissau holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Entering the Final Week of the U.S. Election Campaign Season, Gaza Peace Negotiators Try Again to Broker a Cease-Fire, And A Big US Economic Data Week

October 27 - November 3, 2024

The U.S. is going into the final week of campaigning in what is proving to be one of the tensest presidential elections in recent memory and too close to predict at this point.  Polling has proven to be extremely tight and, more often than not, confusing to most observers.  But it seems it all comes down to whoever wins Pennsylvania wins the presidency.  Control of the U.S. House of Representatives is also proving to be close but seems to lean toward Democrats winning control, while control of the Senate looks likely to flip to Republicans.  But one thing is clear: Everyone we have spoken to cannot wait until November 5th to get the voting behind us.

Looking globally, the coming week is relatively quiet following a busy week of the IMF/World Bank meetings and BRICS Summit (which seems to have been something of a bust for host Russian President Vladimir Putin with little achieved).  Markets are somewhat relieved Israel's much anticipated retaliatory attack on Iran Saturday appears to have been limited and likely not to lead to further direct Iranian strikes or significant expansion of fighting in the region.  But Israeli action against Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon continues and is not expected to end anytime soon.  Meanwhile, Israeli, U.S., and Qatari negotiators are gathering in Doha this week in another effort to broker a cease-fire in Gaza.

Looking at the global economic radar screen, it will be a busy week in the U.S. as the Conference Board's consumer confidence report is on Tuesday, the Q3 GDP numbers are out on Wednesday, PCE data is on Thursday, and the jobs report is released Friday.

In Asia, it is also going to be a busy week in Japan.  The Bank of Japan (BoJ) meets on Thursday to decide interest rates.  We will also see the BoJ release its Outlook Report on Thursday.  This comes after the labor market indicator print is released on Monday, and the Industrial Production and Consumer Confidence reports are released on Wednesday. 

China releases its PMIs on Thursday and the Caixin Manufacturing PMI on Friday.   But markets will particularly examine this week's earnings from large Chinese banks to gauge loan losses, giving a better insight into the country's ongoing economic challenges.

Turning to Europe, Germany, France, and the Eurozone will release Q3 GDP figures.  Germany will also release inflation figures on Wednesday, with France and Italy releasing their inflation figures on Thursday.  In the U.K., the much-anticipated first budget of the recently elected Labour Government will be presented on Wednesday.

There are very few major central bank speeches scheduled this week following a busy week in Washington last week at the IMF/World Bank meetings.  The U.S. Federal Reserve Board is in its "black-out period" in advance of the FMOC meeting on November 6 and 7.  Among G7 central banks, the most notable event is Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem's testimony before the Canadian parliament this week.

Below is what else we are closely watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, October 27, 2024

Global

·       European and British Summer Time end. Clocks go back one hour. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Uruguay holds presidential and parliamentary elections. However, the elections are being marred by a controversial $23 billion proposal to overhaul the social security system. If approved, the measure would increase minimum payouts, lower the retirement age and transfer privately managed savings to a government-run trust in what advocates see as a way to share the nation’s resources more equally.

·        Brazil holds its second round of municipal elections. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·         Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan holds snap elections for its the House of Representatives. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party  (LDP) is at risk of losing its majority in the lower house, which would mean the LDP would have to rely on a coalition partnership with the Komeito Party– which is currently does to hold power in the upper house.  The LDP needs to win 233 seats for an outright majority.

·       Uzbekistan holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Lithuania holds the second round of parliamentary elections.

·       Bulgaria will hold snap parliamentary elections. This is the third attempt to form a government since June and the sixth snap elections held in the country since 2021.

·       Liechtenstein holds a vote on a referendum on the privatization of Radio Lichtenstein.

Economic Reports/Events –

·         Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli, Qatari, and US negotiators will meet in Doha seeking a cease-fire in Gaza.

Economic Reports/Events –

·         Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 28, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on Sudan. Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to deliver remarks. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on 2713 Committee (dealing with Somalia as well as a Troop Contributing Countries (TCC) meeting.  

·       The OECD releases Guidelines on Corporate Governance of State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs).

·       The OECD holds its Sustainable Agricultural Productivity Conference in Paris.

·       The UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) experts will present the organization's annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin.

·       The UN’s International Conference on Women, Peace and Security will be held through October 31 in Manila, Philippines.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Canadian province of Saskatchewan holds legislative elections.

·       The 2024 Microelectronics Commons Annual Meeting and National Semiconductor Technology Center Symposium begins in Washington.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (September)/ CFIB Business Barometer (October)

·       Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem will participate in a fireside chat at the Logic Summit in Ontario.

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (September)

·       USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (October)/ Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates

·       Colombia Business Confidence (September)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Philippine Senate will begin an investigation into former President Rodrigo Duterte's controversial war on drugs. The policy began when he was elected in 2016 and by some estimates led to the killing of as many as 30,000 Filipinos. As Nikkei recently reported, an investigation by congressional lawmakers has recently confirmed a bounty system for police that directly linked Duterte's allies, including two sitting senators, to the violent campaign.

·       The Asian Development Bank will elect a new president.  Only one candidate is running – Japan’s former currency czar Masato Kana. 

·       ASEAN Labor Ministers meet in Singapore.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Malaysia PPI (September)

·       Singapore Import & Export Prices (September)/ PPI (September)

·       Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (October)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Finnish President Alexander Stubb begins a state visit to China.  Stubb is expected to discuss the war in Ukraine and China’s role in supporting Russian forces.  They are also going to talk about the ongoing trade disputes with the EU and bilateral trade issues.

·       The EU-Western Balkans Ministerial Forum begins in Montenegro.

·       French President Emmanuel Macron begins a three-day state visit to the former colony, marking a step towards easing three years of strained relations between the two countries.

·       The 2024 Session of the Nordic Council begins in Reykjavik, Iceland and runs through October 31.  The theme of the meeting is “Peace and Security in the Arctic.”  There are 87 elected members of te Council from Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, The Faroe Islands, Norway, Greenland, and Åland Islands.  Belarus opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya will address the group in a bid to encourage continued opposition to the Belarus dictatorship.

·       The environmental group, Extinction Rebellion, is expected to hold large protest targeting London-based issuers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos gives a speech and participates in a Q&A at Foro Reflexión organized by Grupo Hotusa in Madrid, Spain

·       Spain Retail Sales (September)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (September)

·       Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Saudi Arabia hosts the Future Investment Initiative (FII) through October 31.  The event is a showcase explaining the kingdom’s vision for transforming the country into a financial hub as well as the country’s advancements in technology, minerals, and mining.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (September)

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (September)/ Private Bank Lending (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The 10th session of the UN Global Geospatial Information Management for Africa will be held in Addis Ababa.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (September)

Tuesday, October 29, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Middle East. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Current Account (September)/ Foreign Direct Investment (September)

·       Canada BoC Macklem Speech

·       Chile Unemployment Rate (September)

·       USA Goods Trade Balance Adv (September)/ Redbook (October/26)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (August)/ House Price Index (August)/ JOLTs Job Openings & Quits (September)/ CB Consumer Confidence (October)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (October)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/25)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The International Mining and Resources Conference will be held in Sydney, Australia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (September)/ Jobs/applications ratio (September)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Tourist Arrivals (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (September)/ Mortgage Approvals & Lending (September)/ M4 Money Supply (September)/ Net Lending to Individuals (September)

·       Ireland GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Retail Sales (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Africa HealthTech Summit begins in Kigali, Rwanda.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (September)/ Private Sector Credit (September)

Wednesday, October 30, 2024

Global

·       A Joint meeting of G20 Finance Ministers and Health Ministers will take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.  Later, the G20 Health Ministers Conference will meet.

·       G20 Education Ministers will meet in Fortaleza, Brazil.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold votes linked to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) and the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL). Also in the morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold votes related to the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) and Colombia.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canada will host the Ministerial Conference on Human Dimension of Ukraine’s Peace Formula in Montreal.  he Ministerial Conference will bring together Foreign Affairs Ministers to advance the common vision articulated by the Joint Communiqué on a Peace Framework developed at the Summit on Peace in Ukraine at Bürgenstock, Switzerland, in June 2024.  During the conference, Ministers will exchange views with the aim of developing a concrete plan, guided by the principles of international human rights and humanitarian law, for the return of prisoners of war as well as deported civilians and children back to Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (October)/ Bank Lending (September)/ PPI (September)/ Net Payrolls (September)

·       USA MBA Purchase Index (October/25)/ ADP Employment Change (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ GDP Price Index Q3/ GDP Sales Q3/ PCE Prices Q3/ Real Consumer Spending Q3/ Treasury Refunding Announcement/ Pending Home Sales (September)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/25)

·       Chile Copper/ Industrial/ Manufacturing Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Mexico GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Fiscal Balance (September)

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers will testfy before the Canadian Parliament. 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun will meet with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in Washington for the 56th Bilateral Security Consultative Meetings.  

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia CPI Q3/ Monthly CPI Indicator (September)/ Inflation Rate Q3/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q3/ RBA Weighted Median CPI Q3

·       Philippines PPI (September)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (September)

·       Japan Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Singapore Business Confidence Q3

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (September)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (October)/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       India Infrastructure Output (September)/ M3 Money Supply (October/18)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Commission is expected to publish the final disclosure for planned import duties on Chinese made electric vehicles (EV).  Once implemented, the duties will be in place for five years.

·       The UK Autumn Budget will be presented to Parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives the keynote speech at the SAFE-CEPR conference on Euro@25 organized by Leibniz Institute SAFE in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Netherlands Business Confidence (October)

·       France GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Household Consumption (September)

·       Turkey Economic Confidence Index (October)

·       Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Slovakia Business & Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Business Confidence (October)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (October)/ Economic Sentiment Index (October)/ SNB Press Conference

·       Germany Unemployment Rate (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (October)/ Bavaria CPI (October)/ Brandenburg CPI (October)/ Hesse CPI (October)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (October)/ Saxony CPI (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)

·       Italy GDP Growth Rate Q3/ PPI (September)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (October)

·       Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Economic Sentiment (October)/ Consumer Confidence Final (October)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (October)/ Industrial Sentiment (October)/ Selling Price Expectations (October)/ Services Sentiment (October)/ ECB Schnabel Speech

·       Greece PPI (September)

·       Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate (October)

·       Russia Unemployment Rate (September)/ Business Confidence (October)/ Corporate Profits (August)/ Real Wage Growth (August)/ Retail Sales (September)/ GDP (September)

·       Great Britain Autumn Budget 2024

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (August)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (September)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (September)/ Private Bank Lending (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Botswana holds general elections.  President Mokgweetsi Masisi is expected to win a second five-year term.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Budget Balance (September)/ Medium-term budget statement

Thursday, October 31, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Threats to international peace and security. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (September)/ Nominal Budget Balance (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (October)/ Personal Income & Spending (September)/ Employment Cost Index Q3/ Initial Jobless Claims (October/26)/ PCE Price Index (September)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (October/26)/ Chicago PMI (October)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/25)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/30)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/30)

·       Canada GDP (August)/ Average Weekly Earnings (August)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (September)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (September)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India celebrates Diwali, the festival of lights. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Japan Industrial Production (September) / Retail Sales (September)/ Foreign Bond Investment (October/26)

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (October)

·       Australia Housing Credit (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Export Prices Q3/ Import Prices Q3/ Private Sector Credit (September)/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (October)

·       China NBS Manufacturing & Non- Manufacturing PMI (October)/ NBS General PMI (October)

·       Japan Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision/ BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report/ Housing Starts (September)/ Construction Orders (September)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (September)/ Current Account (September)/ Private Consumption & Investment (September)

·       Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       India Government Budget Value (September)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Sri Lanka PPI (September)/ Unemployment Rate Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russia hosts the World Congress of Compatriots Living Abroad.  The meeting brings together approximately 400 leaders and activists from Russian communities from 103 countries.  The agenda includes “…the preservation of traditional and family values, the safeguarding of cultural and historical heritage, protection of the rights and legitimate interests of compatriots, promotion of the Russian language and education, engagement of youth in diaspora activities, development of Russian-language media, and matters concerning relocation to the Russian Federation.”

·       The 2nd International Eurasian Security Conference will be held in Minsk, Belarus through November 1.  Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will chair the conference.

·       The UK Conservative Party elections will end.  The new Party leader will be announced on Saturday, November 2.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden will give a speech in Hong Kong entitled “Engaging with the machine: AI and Financial Stability.”

·       Netherlands Inflation Rate (October)

·       Germany Retail Sales (September)/ Import Prices (September)

·       Romania Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (September)/ Tourism Revenues Q3/ Retail Sales (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/25)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Final (August)/ PPI (September)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (September)

·       France Inflation Rate (October)/ PPI (September)

·       Spain Tourist Arrivals (September)/ Current Account (August)

·       Euro Area ECB Bulletin/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ CPI Flash (October)

·       Italy Unemployment Rate (September)/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Industrial Sales (August)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (October)

·       Greece Retail Sales (August)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Great Britain BoE Breeden Speech

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (September)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision/ Current Account (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

·       South Africa PPI (September)/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (October)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (September)

Friday, November 1, 2024

Global

·       The United Kingdom takes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of November.

·       The G20 Disaster Risk Reduction Ministerial meeting takes place in Belem, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the Day of the Dead in Mexico.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ Business Confidence (October)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (October)

·       Brazil Industrial Production (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (October)

·       USA Unemployment Rate (October)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate/ Participation Rate (October)/ Government Payrolls (October)/ Manufacturing & Nonfarm Payrolls (October)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (October)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Construction Spending (September)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (November/01)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (October)

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (October)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (October)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Building Permits (September)

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (October)/ Building Permits (September)/ Home Loans (September)/ Investment Lending for Homes (September)/ PPI Q3/ Commodity Prices (October)

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Tourist Arrivals (September)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (October)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Business Confidence (October)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (October)/ Bank Loan Growth (October/18)/ Deposit Growth (October/18)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/25)

·       Kazakhstan Current Account Q3/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (September)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (October)/ Wholesale Prices (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       North Korean troops are expected to begin deploying against Ukrainian Forces in Kursk.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Most financial markets are closed as is the European Central Bank for All Saints’ Day, a public holiday.

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Netherlands Retail Sales (September)/ NEVI Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ M2 Money Supply (September)

·       Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (October)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (October)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (October)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Spain New Car Sales (October)

·       Italy New Car Registrations (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (October)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (October)

Saturday, November 2, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       One of our favorite days of the year!  The end of Daylight Savings as clocks are set back one hour and we get an extra hour of sleep.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 2nd round of presidential elections takes place in Moldova.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, November 3, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Standing Committee National People's Congress will gather for meetings through November 8.  They will consider draft laws and amendments to laws dealing with mineral resources, energy, anti-money laundering, and maritime issues.  They are not expected to discuss the ongoing national economic challenges or how to deal with the debt crisis.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Hezbollah’s Leader Nasrallah is Dead, Leaving Markets and World Leaders Asking: What Happens Now?  The US Vice Presidential Candidates Debate As U.S. Dockworkers Prepare To Go On Strike, And Mexico Inaugurates A New President

September 29 - October 5, 2024

With the confirmation of the death of Hezbollah's Hassan Nasrallah, markets and world leaders are asking the question: What happens next?  The risk of war between Israel and Hezbollah and possibly Iran has reached dangerous new levels.  Nasrallah's death is a massive blow to Iran's power and prestige in the Middle East, and it is unclear if or how Iran could retaliate.  The only clear thing is Israel is determined to cripple Hezbollah's military threat to Israel permanently, as we saw over the weekend as Israeli airstrikes continued to pound Hezbollah positions. 

 Meanwhile, in the United States this coming week, Vice Presidential candidates Senator J.D. Vance (R-OH) and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz will debate on Tuesday.  This will happen as the International Longshoreman's Association is expected to go on strike on both coasts, shutting down 36 major ports just as imports ramp up to meet Christmas shopping demand.  The union and port owners have been stalemated over a new contract for over a year.

Elsewhere in the Americas, Mexico will hold the historic inauguration of Claudia Sheinbaum as the country's new—and first female—president.  Succeeding President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), she is expected to continue pursuing his controversial populist agenda, which includes the recent much-criticized reform of the national judiciary and possibly a ramp-up of nationalization of foreign-owned assets in the country.

In Asia, Japan's parliament will formally vote to approve a new Prime Minister—former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba—to succeed Fumio Kishida.  The significance of this transition is that Ishiba is a strong military defense hawk who advocates a significant ramp-up of Japan's military and military as well as the creation of an “Asian NATO” – which would mean stationing Japanese troops in other countries, including the US.  He has also advocated legislation that would allow women to become reigning empresses, something opposed by many of his fellow Liberal Democratic Party lawmakers.

 On the global economic radar screen this coming week, markets will be looking closely at the US jobs report, ISM indicators, and JOLTS reports for signs of where unemployment is going.   Additionally, Fed Chair Jay Powell will give an important speech on the economic outlook.

In Europe, German and Italian CPI figures will be a significant focus of the markets.  Markets are also listening for European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's remarks before a European Parliament Committee hearing this week.

In Asia, the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) summary of opinions will be released, as well as the BoJ's Tankan Survey and labor market figures.  China celebrates the 75th Anniversary of the establishment of the People's Republic of China and the beginning of the Golden Week holidays, which run through October 7. It also releases on Monday much-watched manufacturing PMIs.

Here is what else we are tracking in the week ahead:

Sunday, September 29, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Austria holds Parliamentary elections. 183 seats of the National Council and lower house of parliament are up.  The far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) is currently polling at 26%, and the center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP), led by incumbent Chancellor Karl Nehammer, with 25%. The Social Democratic Party (SPÖ) is close behind with 21% (which means no single party will likely secure a majority, forcing a coalition government).

·       Ukraine observes the 83rd anniversary of Babyn Yar, the two-day slaughter of more than 30,000 Jews in Kyiv by the Nazis.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (August)/ Private Bank Lending (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 30, 2024

Global

·       The UN General Assembly concludes today. A list of the final national leaders speaking can be found at UN Journal.         

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to Haiti [mandate of the Multinational Security Support Mission (MSSM)]. Soon after, the Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo sanctions. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the maintenance of international peace and security.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       El Salvadorian President Bukele will be meeting with Argentine President Javier Milei in Buenos Aires.  The two conservative leaders are expected to discuss AI investment and other tech issues.

·       The US Congress is out of session until November.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to speak before the National Association for Business Economics 66th Annual Meeting, "Finding Harmony in the Noise: Transitioning to a New Normal" in Nashville, Tennessee.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” at the Georgia Bankers Association President/CEO Conference, Charleston, South Carolina.

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (August)/ Nominal Budget Balance (August)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Chile Copper Production (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       USA Chicago PMI (September)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (September)/ Quarterly Grain Stocks - Corn & Soy & Wheat (September)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (August)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (August)

·       El Salvador Current Account Q2

·       Paraguay Current Account Q2

·       Uruguay Current Account Q2/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Mexico Fiscal Balance (August)

·       Costa Rica Unemployment Rate Q2

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Philippine Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro will give a major speech on South China Sea dispute in Manila, Philippines.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Japan Industrial Production Prel (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Housing Starts (August)/ Construction Orders (August)

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (September)

·       Australia Housing Credit (August)/ Private Sector Credit (August)

·       China NBS Non-Manufacturing/ Manufacturing/ General PMI (September)/ Caixin Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI (September)/ Current Account Final Q2

·       Singapore Import/ Export Prices (August)/ PPI (August)

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (August)

·       Thailand Current Account (August)/ Private Consumption & Investment (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (September)/ PPI (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       India Government Budget Value (August)/ Infrastructure Output (August)/ Current Account Q2/ External Debt Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The trial of Marine Le Pen, 26 others and the RN on suspicion of embezzlement of European public funds in Paris. 

·       The Vaclav Havel Human Rights Prize announced in Strasbourg, France. The finalists are Venezuelan democracy leader María Corina Machada, Azerbaijanian human rights leader Akif Gurbanov, and Georgian human rights leader Babutsa Pataraia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give an introductory statement at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Germany Import Prices (August)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (September)/ Bavaria CPI (September)/ Brandenburg CPI (September)/ Hesse CPI (September)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (September)/ Saxony CPI (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

·       Great Britain Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ Business Investment Final Q2/ BoE Consumer Credit (August)/ Mortgage Lending & Approvals (August)/ M4 Money Supply (August)/ Net Lending to Individuals (August)

·       Hungary PPI (August)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (September)

·       Poland Inflation Rate Prel (September)

·       Spain Current Account (July)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (September)

·       Greece PPI (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Italy Inflation Rate (September)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (August)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (July)/ Current Account (August)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Unemployment Rate Q2

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (August)/ M2 Money Supply (August)/ Private Bank Lending (August)

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The International Court of Justice holds public hearings on a land and maritime dispute between Gabon and Equatorial Guinea.

·       Today is Independence Day in Botswana, celebrating when the country gained its independence from the UK in 1964..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (August)/ Private Sector Credit (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Budget Balance (August)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (September)

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (August)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (September)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (August)

Tuesday, October 1, 2024

Global

·       Switzerland assumes the Chair of the UN Security Council for the month of October.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Claudia Sheinbaum will be sworn in as Mexico’s new President and first woman president.

·       US Vice Presidential candidates J.D. Vance and Tim Walz will take part in an election debate.

·       The International Longshoreman’s Association is expected to begin a strike in more than a dozen major ports along the East and West Coast. 

·       Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will likely face a second non-confidence vote in two weeks.

·       Widespread protests are expected by pensioners I Caracas, Venezuela.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to give welcome and opening remarks before the" Technology-Enabled Disruption: Implications of AI, Big Data, and Remote Work" conference organized by the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Boston and Richmond in Atlanta, Georgia.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech entitled “AI, Big Data, and the Path Ahead for Productivity” at the Conference on “Technology-Enabled Disruption: Implications of AI, Big Data, and Remote Work," Atlanta, Georgia.

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (August)

·       USA Redbook (September28)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (September)/ JOLTs Job Openings (August)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (September)/ Construction Spending (August)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (September)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (September)/ JOLTs Job Quits (August)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (September)/ Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/27)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (September)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (September)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is China’s National Day celebrating the end of dynastic rule and the 75th anniversary of People’s Republic of China.  It is a public holiday and the beginning of its Golden Week which runs through October 7.

·       The ASEAN-Japan Cybersecurity Policy Meeting will begin in Singapore.

·       Japan will formally elect former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba as Prime Minister.

·       The Indian region of Jammu and Kashmir will begin its third phase of voting for assembly elections, and the Indian state of Haryana will hold its assembly elections as well.

·       Today is Independence Day in Tuvalu. The island nation celebrates when it gained its independence from the UK in 1978.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence & Utilization Q3/ Building Permits (August)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (October/01)

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (September)/ Building Permits (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Private House Approvals Prel (August)/ Commodity Prices (September)/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (September)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (August)/ Jobs/applications ratio (August)/ BoJ Summary of Opinions/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (September)

·       South Korea Exports/ Imports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ PPI (August)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (September)

·       Kazakhstan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (September)/ Wholesale Prices (September)/ Balance of Trade (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·        Former Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte takes over from Jens Stoltenberg as NATO secretary general.

·       Ukraine will mark its Defenders Day national holiday.

·       Newly installed French Prime Minister Michel Barnier delivers his first general policy statement to Parliament, including the 2025 budget.

·       Wikileaks founder Julian Assange will address the Council of Europe.

·       Today is Cyprus Independence Day, marking when the nation became independent from the UK in 1960.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives the welcoming speech at the 5th Joint BoC - ECB - NY FED Conference on Expectations Surveys, Central Banks and the Economy in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will chair the keynote lecture at 5th Joint Bank of Canada - ECB – New York FED Conference on Expectations Surveys, Central Banks and the Economy in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Final (July)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (August)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Inflation Rate Flash (September)/ CPI Flash (September)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing

·       Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)/ New Car Sales (September)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Asia Cooperation Dialogue's heads of state meeting will take place in Doha, Qatar, through October 1.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (September)

Wednesday, October 2, 2024

Global

·       G7 Interior Ministers meet in Mirabella Eclano, Italy, through October 4.

·       The Jewish High Holy Days will begin at sundown with the start of Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish new year.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem will give welcome remarks before the Community Banking Research Conference 2024:"Where Research and Policy Meet," co-sponsored by the Federal Reserve System, the Conference of State Bank Supervisors (CSBS) and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation in St. Louis, Missouri.  Later, Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman will give a keynote speech at the conference.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to speak on the national economic outlook before the 2024 WilmingtonBiz Conference and Expo in Wilmington, Delaware.

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (September)/ Industrial Production (August)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/27)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/27)/ ADP Employment Change (September)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (September/27)/ EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (September/27)

·       Mexico Business Confidence (September)/ Gross Fixed Investment (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Colombia Exports (August)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will visit Pakistan through October 4.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Ai Group Industry/ Construction/ Manufacturing Index (September)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index & Outlook Q3/ Tankan Large All Industry Capex Q3/ Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Singapore URA Property Index QoQ Prel Q3/ SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (September)

·       Sri Lanka Current Account Q2

·       India M3 Money Supply (September/20)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen meetings with the President of Georgia, Ms. Salome Zourabichivili in Brussels.  The EU and Georgia have experienced significant disruptions in relations. The EU has threatened to strip Georgians of visa-free access due to backsliding on democracy in the country, and it has frozen chances of Georgia joining the EU.   Later in the day, von der Leyen will meet with British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer in an effort to “reset ties” between the UK and EU.   

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will host meetings with French President Emanual Macron in Berlin.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board member Luis de Guindos will give a speech at the Latvijas Banka's and SUERF Economic Conference, "Financing a Better Future: The Vital Role of Finance in Achieving Sustainable Growth" in Riga, Latvia.  He will then participate on a panel entitled “From Riga to Brussels to Wall Street: Examining the Differences of Financial Architecture.” 

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane will chair a policy panel at the 5th Joint Bank of Canada - ECB - Federal Reserve Bank of New York Conference on Expectations Surveys, Central Banks and the Economy in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will participate on a panel discussion "Banking for Prosperity: Towards Stronger and More Inclusive Growth Through Increased Integration and Competition" at Latvijas Banka's and SUERF Economic Conference "Financing a Better Future: The Vital Role of Finance in Achieving Sustainable Growth" in Riga, Latvia. 

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will participate in webinar organized by the Institute of International & European Affairs in Dublin, Ireland.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will give the Walter Eucken Lecture 2024 at the University of Freiburg in Freiburg, Germany.

·       Romania PPI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (September)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Euro Area Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Italy Unemployment Rate (August)/ New Car Registrations (September)

·       Ireland Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (October)

·       Russia Business Confidence (September)/ Real Wage Growth (July)/ Retail Sales (August)/ GDP (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Guinea, marking when the country gained its freedom from France in 1958.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (September)

·       South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales (September)

Thursday, October 3, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in hybrid "Featuring Frontier Research to Enhance Economic Opportunity and Inclusive Growth" 2024 Research Conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.  Later, Atlanta Federal Reserve Board President Raphael Bostic will participate via video.

·       Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (September/28)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (September)/ ISM Services PMI/ Business/ Employment/ New Orders/ Prices (September)/ Factory Orders (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September/27)/15 & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/02)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/2)/ Total Vehicle Sales (September)

·       Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (September)

·       Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (September)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (September)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Asahi Noguchi gives a speech to a meeting of local business leaders in Nagasaki, Japan.

·       Australia Judo Bank Composite & Services PMI Final (September)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (September/28)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/28)/ Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMI Final (September)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Kazakhstan S&P Global Services PMI (September)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Germany celebrates the Day of German Unity, celebrating the reunification of Germany.  It is a public holiday, and financial markets and banks are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (September)

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (September)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (September)

·       France Budget Balance (August)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (September)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (September)/ PPI (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/27)/ Auto Production (September)/ Auto Sales (September)

·       Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (September)

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (September)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (September)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (September)/ PPI (August)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Iraq Independence Day, marking when the country gained its independence from the UK in 1932.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (September)

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (September)

·       Qatar Financial Centre PMI (September)/ Balance of Trade (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (September)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (September)

·       Ghana S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Tanzania Interest Rate Decision

Friday, October 4, 2024

Global

·       G7 Ministers meet in gender equity and women’s empowerment in Matera, Italy, through October 6.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to give opening remarks before the conference, "The Future of New York City: Focus on Jobs," at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (August)/ Auto Exports (September)/ Auto Production (September)

·       USA Unemployment Rate (September)/ Participation Rate (September)/ Average Weekly Hours (September)/ Manufacturing & Government Payrolls (September)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (October/04)

·       Canada Ivey PMI s.a (September)

·       Brazil Balance of Trade (September)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (September)

·       El Salvador GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Colombia PPI (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Kazakhstan will host the regional ceremony of unveiling the Global Innovation Index 2024 Report. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (September)

·       Australia Home Loans (August)/ Investment Lending for Homes (August)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (September)/ Bank Loan Growth (September/20)/ Deposit Growth (September/20)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/27)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (August)

·       Thailand Business Confidence (September)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Sri Lanka Unemployment Rate Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will give the speech at the 10th Anniversary International Financial Markets Conference organized by Lithuanian Central Bank in Vilnius, Lithuania.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos will give remarks at the anniversary of Radio Intereconomía.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will give the keynote speech followed by panel participation at the  Change in Leadership event by Sustainable Finance Lab in Utrecht, Netherlands.

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill will give a speech at the Institute of Chartered Accounts in England and Wales Annual Conference.

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (August)

·       France Industrial Production (August)/ HCOB Construction PMI (September)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (August)

·       Spain Industrial Production (August)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (September)

·       Germany HCOB Construction PMI (September)/ New Car Registrations (September)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (September)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (September)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (September)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (August)

·       Serbia PPI (September)

·       Romania Interest Rate Decision

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Prel (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Lesotho celebrates Independence Day, marking when the UK granted the nation its independence in 1966.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kenya GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Saturday, October 5, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vanuatu celebrates Constitution Day, celebrating when the nation’s constitution was signed in 1979, paving the way for its independence.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Portugal celebrates Republic Day, celebrating when Portugal’s monarchy was overthrown in 1910.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 6, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil holds local elections, including for Mayor of Sao Paulo.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Kazakhstan, a referendum on the construction of a nuclear power plant (NPP) will be held. Opinion polling indicates that the most likely scenario will be a vote in favor of constructing the plant. If approved, it will help Kazakhstan domestic electricity supply challenges and reduce its dependence on both fossil fuels and electricity imports from abroad.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Industrial Production (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (September)/ Foreign Direct Investment (September)

·       Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       London is bracing for a large protest in support of Palestinians.

·       Bosnia and Herzegovina will hold local elections.

·       In Italy, Matteo Salvini's League holds annual meeting in Pontida.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Tunisia will hold a presidential election.  President Kais Saied will almost certainly win as opposition parties are boycotting the election.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

World Leaders Gather at UN General Assembly Week in New York, Japan Selects a New Prime Minister, Bracing for Israeli-Hezbollah Escalation, and Waiting For A Flood of Fed Governor Speeches

September 22 - 29, 2024

This coming week is going to be an exceptionally busy one on the geopolitical front.  The United Nations 79th General Assembly is this week, and leaders from around the world are gathering to give speeches before the Assembly and hold side meetings with other leaders.  Of note, we will be watching closely Iran's new President Masoud Pezeshkian's speech for not only what he says about the current escalation of fighting between Israel's and Iran's proxy militia, Hezbollah.  But also, press reports suggest Pezeshkian may suggest an avenue to restarting stalled talks on limiting Iran's nuclear program. 

As we write this update, there has been a significant escalation of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah following Israel’s stunning exploding pager operation last week, killing or wounding more than 3,000 Hezbollah operatives.  The question now is does this move into a full-out war (which seems most likely) or is there some remote chance of a diplomatic solution.

Also of note this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will speak to the Assembly and then travel to Washington to meet with President Biden, Vice President Harris, and House and Senate leadership about additional military assistance.

As all this is happening, Japan's Liberal Democracy Party will vote on a new leader—who will then become the new Prime Minister of Japan—as incumbent LDP President and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is not running for re-election and is standing down in the wake of low approval polls and a controversy over a slush fund scandal.

Turning to US politics, The House and Senate are expected to vote this week on a Continuing Resolution (CR) to keep the federal government running through December 20th.   The bill will likely face widespread House Republican opposition but still pass with just enough Republicans voting in favor, along with almost the entire House Democratic Caucus.  As this is going on, the House Foreign Affairs Committee is going to hold a hearing with Secretary of State Antony Blinken to review the chaotic withdrawal of US Forces from Afghanistan.  The Committee issued a scathing report recently, strongly criticizing how the withdrawal was conducted.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, we are struck by the large number of speeches Federal Reserve Board Governors are giving: ten, of which seven are being given on Thursday.  That is a lot for markets to digest, along with a busy US economic report calendar that includes US PCE readings, flash US CPI numbers, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index, and durable goods orders.

Turning to Europe, the European Central Bank, France, Germany, and Italy release their consumer expectation surveys.  In Asia, Japan releases the Tokyo CPI report and flash PMIs.  The Reserve Bank of Australia meets to decide interest rates.

Here is what else we are tracking in this hectic week ahead:

Sunday, September 22, 2024

Global

·       The opening segment of the Summit of the Future will take place at the General Assembly Hall. The UN Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks, as well as the President of the 79th Session of the General Assembly, Philemon Yang. The Summit of the Future will continue until September 23.  

·       The UN’s the COP29 Presidency and the International Organization for Migration (IOM) are co-organizing a High-Level Roundtable on Climate, Peace and Human Mobility.

·       Today is the Fall Equinox.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will address the Indian diaspora at the "Modi & US Progress Together" event at Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum in Long Island, New York. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Thailand New Car Sales (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Germany, the state of Brandenburg holds state elections.

·       Switzerland holds a referendum vote on initiative to strengthen biodiversity protection.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today in South Sudan is the deadline for the dissolution of the transitional unity government ahead of possible December elections.

·       Today is Mali Independence Day, celebrating when the country gained its independence from France in 1960.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 23, 2024

Global

·      The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) holds board meetings in Vienna, Austria. They are expected to be given an update on Iran’s nuclear weapons program, North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, and the situation around security and safeguards around Ukraine’s nuclear power facility, which has been the center of heavy fighting.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Joe Biden hosts UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan for talks on Gaza and Sudan.  This is the first state visit by a sitting UAE President.  He will also meet with Vice President Kamala Harris during his visit along with a large group of US businessmen.

·       The Argentine Congress is expected to begin debating the 2025 fiscal budget.  President Javier Milei has pledged to substantially reduce the federal deficit via austerity measures in the package.

·       The Clinton Foundation holds its annual Clinton Global Initiative in New York.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to speak virtually on the economic outlook before the Distinguished Speakers Seminar convened by the European Economics and Financial Centre at the University of London.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in moderated question-and-answer session before the Greater Kansas City Chamber of Commerce Leadership Exchange 2024.

·       Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Mexico Economic Activity (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (August)/ S&P Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (September)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (August)

·       Paraguay PPI (August)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan's main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, will hold a leadership election.  Whomever wins is the likely next Prime Minister.

·       South Korea will host the 25th Korea-U.S. Integrated Defense Dialogue in Seoul.

·       Filipino unionized transport workers will stage a nationwide work stoppage through September 24.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japanese financial markets are closed to celebrate the Autum Equinox Day.

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (September)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (August)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (August)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (September)

·       Philippines Business & Consumer Confidence Q3

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·        Italy will host the second Libya Energy and Economy Summit in Rome. 

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers are going to discuss the upcoming EU-UK annual consultation on fishing opportunities for 2025 as well as the EU-Norway and coastal states annual consultations for the coming year.

·       The EU General Affairs Council will meet in Brussels.  Ministers will hear the Hungarian presidency will present the priorities for its term of office. Ministers will have an opportunity to present their comments.  They will also hold a horizontal discussion on the rule of law situation in the EU member states. Separately, ministers will also exchange views on the general trend of the rule of law situation in selected candidate countries. Both discussions will make use of the Commission’s 2024 rule of law report, which this year covers, for the first time, also developments in Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia. 

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen delivers a keynote address at the Association of Small Islands States Leaders Meeting in New York.

·       Armenia's Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan will travel to the Netherlands and Brussels, Belgium, on a working visit. 

·       Paris Fashion Week begins. Maybe Derek Zoolander will be there, too.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone will give an introductory statement at a hearing on the digital euro before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.  Later, he will participate on a panel discussion at a roundtable on the digital euro at the House of the Euro in Brussels.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives opening remarks at the summit on Real estate climate data industry good practices organized by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Hungary Gross Wage (July)

·       Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (September)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (September)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (September)

·       Poland Retail Sales (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August)

·       Great Britain S&P Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (September)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (September)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (August)

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Saudi Arabia celebrates National Day.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (July)/ Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (August)/ M2 Money Supply (August)/ Private Bank Lending (August)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (August)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (July)

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (August)/ Total Credit Growth (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

·       Oman M2 Money Supply (July)/ Total Credit (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (August)

Tuesday, September 24, 2024

Global

·       The UN’s General Assembly’s General Debate of the 79th session officially begins.  The theme for the 79th session is “"Leaving no one behind: acting together for the advancement of peace, sustainable development and human dignity for present and future generations.” The Secretary-General will address this session of the General Debate. The Speakers list will be available in the UN Journal. 

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The House Foreign Affairs Committee holds a hearing on "An Assessment of the State Department's Withdrawal from Afghanistan by America's Top Diplomat."  US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will testify.  The Committee recently issued a scathing report on how the withdrawal was conducted and President Biden’s role.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech at the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy at the Kentucky Bankers Association Annual Convention.

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will participate in a fireside chat at the Institute for International Finance Canada Forum 2024 in Toronto.

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ FGV Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Chile PPI (August)

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (September)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales MoM Prel (August)

·       USA Redbook (September/21)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (July)/ House Price Index (July)/ CB Consumer Confidence (September)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (September)/ Money Supply (August)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/20)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       ASEAN Defense Senior Officials meet in Vientian.

·       ASEAN Energy Ministers meet in Vientian.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda gives a speech to business leaders in Osaka, Japan. 

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (September)/ BOJ Gov Ueda Speech

·       South Korea PPI (August)

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (July)/ Leading Index (July)

·       Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Interest Rate Decision/ RBA Press Conference

·       Taiwan Export Orders (August)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen co-hosts an event on carbon-pricing, together with Justin Trudeau, Prime Minister of Canada in New York.  She will also deliver opening remarks at the Global Renewables Summit in New York.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives the opening speech at the European Confederation of Institutes of International Accounting (ECIIA) Banking Forum 2024 "AI and IA: Responding to the Digital Journey in Banking".

·       Bankca d’Italia/G7  jointly hold a workshop entitled “Building a quantum safe financial system: what role for authorities and for the private sector?” in Rome.

·       Turkey Business Confidence (September)/ Capacity Utilization (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate/ Current Conditions/ Expectations (September)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (September)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (September)/ Inflation Report/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Riyadh, Saudi Arabia will host the Smart Cities Saudi Conference.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Guinea-Bissau celebrates its 51st Independence Day, marking when Portugal gave the country it’s freedom.

·       South African markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, September 25, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Maintenance of International Peace and Security: Leadership for Peace. The Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks. 

·       At the UN, the 2nd Foreign Ministers meeting of G20 Brazil 2024 on the theme "Building a just world and a sustainable planet" will take place at the ECOSOC Chamber. The Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks.

·       The UN holds a high-level meeting on rising sea levels.

·       The OECD presents its Interim Economic Outlook.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US House of Representative’s Speaker of the House Michael Johnson (R-LA) is expected to present a stop-gap spending bill that will continue US government funding through December 20.  A deal was reached over the weekend with the Senate over the weekend.  A large number of House Republicans are expected to vote against it – which will complicate Speaker Johnson’s future as Speaker.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech on the Economic Outlook at the Harvard Kennedy School, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

·       USA MBA Purchase Index (September/20)/ New Home Sales (August)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (September/20)/ Building Permits Final (August)

·       Brazil Current Account (August)/ Foreign Direct Investment (August)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (September)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnam's President and ruling Communist Party chief To Lam will visit Cuba through September 26 and meet with Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel. 

·       The Indian region of Jammu and Kashmir will begin its second phase of voting for assembly elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (August)/ RBA Chart Pack

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (August)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Parliament is expected to vote on raising tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank’s Governing Council holds a non-monetary policy meeting (virtual).

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in roundtable at European Banking Chief Compliance Officer Network (EBCCON) Plenary Meeting 2024 (virtual).

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Megan Greene gives a speech at the Chambers of Commerce in Newcastle on Consumption.

·       Hungary Current Account Q2

·       France Consumer Confidence (September)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (August)/ Jobseekers Total (August)

·       Spain PPI (August)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (September)

·       Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/ ECB McCaul Speech

·       Russia Corporate Profits (July)/ Industrial Production (August)

·       Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Abu Dhabi will host Global Aerospace Summit.  The focus of the meeting will be on investment and global trade in the industry.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (July)

Thursday, September 26, 2024 

Global

·       G7 Agriculture Ministers will meet in Syracuse, Italy through September 28.

·       The World Bank/IFS/ODI Finance Conference begins in Washington, D.C.

·       BRICS Foreign Ministers meet in New York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.

·       BRICS Energy Ministers meet in Moscow.

·       The BRICS Digital Forum is held in Innopolis, Republic of Tatarstan.

·       The BRICS Science, Technology and Innovation Ministerial meeting will be held in Moscow.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will meet with U.S. President Joe Biden and separately with Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris at the White House in Washington, D.C.

·       El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele will make an official visit to Argentina. The meetings come after the two nations signed a security agreement in June.

·       Ecuador will host the Women Economic Forum in Quito through September 28.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler participates in a Fireside chat on Financial Inclusion with President Susan M. Collins, co-hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston and Minneapolis and the Federal Reserve Board (virtual)

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman participates in a discussion on the “Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” at the Mid-size Bank Coalition of America Board of Directors Workshop.

·       The Federal Reserve Bank of New York holds its 2024 U.S. Treasury Market Conference.  Scheduled speakers include: Brian Smith, deputy assistant Treasury secretary for federal finance, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen, and SEC Chair Gary Gensler.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook participates in a roundtable discussion entitled “Artificial Intelligence and Workforce Development” at the Roundtable Discussion with Community Stakeholders, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and Columbus State Community College, Columbus, Ohio.

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr participates in a fireside chat on financial inclusion with Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari, co-hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston and Minneapolis and the Federal Reserve Board (virtual).

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech on Artificial Intelligence and the Labor Force at the Ohio State University President and Provost’s Diversity Lecture and Cultural Arts Series, Columbus, Ohio.

·       Brazil PPI (August)/ Net Payrolls (August)

·       Canada Average Weekly Earnings (July)/ Wholesale Sales Prel (August)

·       USA GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/21)/ PCE Prices Final Q2/ Pending Home Sales (August)/ Fed Barr Speech/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September/20)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing & Composite Index (September)/ 15 & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/25)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/25)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (August)

·       Mexico Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Collective Security Treaty Organization exercises called "Indestructible Brotherhood - 2024" will commence in Kazakhstan.

·       The editors of Hong Kong media outlet Stand News face sentencing after being convicted of sedition last month under a colonial-era law. The maximum penalty in the case would be two years in prison.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Foreign Bond Investment (September/21)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/21)

·       Australia RBA Financial Stability Review

·       Malaysia PPI (August)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (August)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Pope Francis commences a four-day visit to Luxembourg and Belgium.

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal Market and Industry) will meet in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss the future of European competitiveness and how to tackle the challenges facing industry and businesses in the single market. The policy debate follows discussions on the issue at the European Council meeting of 17-18 April 2024, and the Competitiveness Council on 24 May, along with the presentation of former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s report on 9 September.

·       European Parliament members and political groups will present their nominations for the 2024 Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought, the highest tribute paid by the EU in the field of human rights, at a joint meeting of the Foreign Affairs Committee, Human Rights Subcommittee, and Development Committee. The vote on the three finalists will take place in October.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank’s General Council holds a meeting (virtual).

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give the welcoming address at the 8th annual ESRB conference "New Frontiers in Macroprudential Policy" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives the opening remarks at the stakeholder meeting about the ECB Guide on Governance & Risk Culture in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul will chair a panel discussion at stakeholder meeting about the ECB Guide on Governance & Risk Culture in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will give the keynote speech at the 8th annual ESRB conference "New Frontiers in Macroprudential Policy" in Frankfurt, Germany. European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will give remarks at the Wirtschaftsrat der CDU e.V. in Stuttgart, Germany.

§  Shoib Khan, director of insurance supervision at the Bank of England’s Prudential Regulation Authority, speaks at the 29th Bank of America Financials CEO conference

§  The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority holds its annual public meeting.

·       Great Britain Car Production (August)

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence OCT

·       Euro Area ECB General Council Meeting/ ECB Economic Bulletin/ Loans to Companies & Households (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August)

·       Span Retail Sales (August)

·       Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision

·       Italy Business & Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Greece Total Credit (August)

·       Turkey MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/20)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (August)

Friday, September 27, 2024

Global

·       G7 Energy Ministers will meet in Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil.

·       The Group of 77 (G77) Foreign Ministers will meet in New York.

·       The BRICS Communications Ministers meeting will take place in Innopolis, Republic of Tatarstan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Higher U.S. tariffs on imported Chinese electric vehicles will go into effect.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman participates in a conversation at the Alabama Bankers Association Bank CEO Meeting, Birmingham, Alabama.

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (September)/ Bank Lending (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (September)/ GDP (July)/ Budget Balance (July)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (August)

·       USA Core PCE Price Index (August)/ Personal Income & Spending (August)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (August)/ PCE Price Index (August)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (September)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/27)

·       Costa Rica GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Current Account Q2

·       Paraguay GDP Growth Rate Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Argentina Current Account Q2

·       Panama Current Account Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Turkmenistan Independence Day, celebrating when the country gained its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (September)

·       South Korea Business Confidence (September)

·       Japan Tokyo CPI (September)/ Coincident Index Final (July)/ Leading Economic Index Final (July)

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (August)

·       Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (August)

·       Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (September)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/20)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Czech Republic holds the second round of Senate elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane will give the opening remarks at a conference on "Fiscal Policy, Financial Sector Policy and Economic Growth" in Dublin, Ireland.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone will give the keynote speech at the "Economics of Payments XIII" conference organized by the Oesterreichische Nationalbank in Vienna, Austria.

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (August)

·       France Inflation Rate Prel (September)/ PPI (August)

·       Slovakia Business & Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Spain Inflation Rate Prel (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ Business Confidence (September)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (August)/ Economic Confidence Index (September)

·       Germany Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Italy Industrial Sales (July)/ PPI (August)

·       Euro Area ECB Lane Speech/ Economic & Industrial Sentiment (September)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)/ Selling Price Expectations (September)/ Services Sentiment (September)/ ECB Cipollone Speech

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (August)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (August)

·       Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (September)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (August)

Saturday, September 28, 2024

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the 10th anniversary of the Umbrella Movement, the mass protests in Hong Kong over election rights and the ability of city citizens to pick their own local leadership.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 29, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Austria holds Parliamentary elections. 183 seats of the National Council and lower house of parliament are up.  The far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) currently is polling at 26%, and the center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) led by incumbent Chancellor Karl Nehammer with 25%. The Social Democratic Party (SPÖ) is close behind with 21% (which means no single party will likely secure a majority, forcing a coalition government).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (August)/ Private Bank Lending (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Central Banks Dominate the Markets and Politics this Week, Voting Begins in Pennsylvania and a Number of Other States, and the Quad Leaders Meet with President Biden to Discuss Indo-Pacific Security Issues

For markets this coming week, it is all about central bank meetings and interest rates.  The U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the Central Bank of Brazil all meet.  But of them all, the U.S. Fed’s decision will likely be the most impactful as markets debate whether it is a 25—or 50-basis cut. 

Against this global monetary backdrop, voting begins in the U.S., with Pennsylvania kicking off in-person voting and a number of other states beginning mail-in voting.  The Fed’s decision to cut rates – if, in fact, that is what they do – is likely to incur the wrath of former President Trump, who has already suggested such a cut two months before the election, is meant to tip the political scales for Vice President Kamala Harris and Democrats.   But as this happens, the U.S. Congress seems to be marching toward another government shutdown as House Republicans battle over what should be added to a Continuing Resolution (C.R.) to keep the government open until at least after the elections.  History has repeatedly shown that the political party that causes shutdowns pays for it at the ballot box.  There is hope a last-minute solution can be reached, but the timeline is getting increasingly tight.

Meanwhile, President Biden will host the Quad Summit in his home state of Delaware this week.  The Prime Ministers of India, Japan, and Australia will gather with Biden to discuss the current security situation in the Indo-Pacific and how best to deal with growing tensions with China in the South China Sea and elsewhere.   As this is happening – and on a positive note – the top Chinese General in the region, General Wu Yanan, is expected to visit the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command in Hawaii this week.  It has been at least three years since such a meeting has taken place and it is considered to be a notable step in improving relations and engagement between China and the U.S.  The visit comes after a video conference call between the General Yanan and Admiral Samuel Paparo, Head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, the first such call in a long time.

Turning back to the global economic radar screen for the week, markets are watching the August US retail sales numbers and industrial production figures.  In Europe, the U.K. releases its August inflation prints, while Germany releases the latest ZEW survey.  In Asia, Japan’s August CPI and trade balance are out this week, while China releases retail sales and industrial production figures.

Below are the many other important events and releases we are watching this coming week: 

Sunday, September 15, 2024

Global

·       Muslims worldwide mark "al-Mawlid al-Nabawi", the birthday of Prophet Mohammed.

·       The IMF will resume online consultations with Russia ahead of the organization's first visit to the country since 2019. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Argentine President Javier Milei presents budget for 2025 to Congress. He is breaking normal tradition of sending it and instead deliver it in person.

·       After signing into law the controversial new judicial reform bill, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador leads 'cry of independence' ceremony in Mexico City, his final public event as president.

·       Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua all celebrate their respective Independence Days today.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 56th ASEAN Economic Ministers Meet  (AEM) takes place in Vientiane, Laos.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China FDI (YTD) (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Romania holds presidential elections. Independent candidate Mircea Geoană is estimated to secure the most votes, followed closely by the Prime Minister and leader of the Social Democrat Party (PSD), Marcel Ciolacu.

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz begins his first trip to Central Asia with visits to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.  The trip comes after Scholz hosted the leaders of five central Asian nations in Berlin in 2023 to discuss closer cooperation and to find a way to pry away growing relations these nations are building with Russia and China.  Scholz will take part in the C5+1 meeting in Kazakhstan (the C5 being Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan). 

·        The NATO Military Committee meets in Prague, Czech Republic.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates in a fireside chat at the Open Day 2024 of Deutsche Bundesbank in Frankfurt, Germany.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       In Iran, today is the 2nd anniversary of protests sparked by death of Mahsa Amini arrested for alleged breach of Iran's strict dress code.  The government is enforcing a strict lock-down on any protests or visits to her grave.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (August) / Wholesale Prices (August)

·       Israel Inflation Rate (August)/ M1 Money Supply (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Students in Nigeria will hold nationwide protests over rising fuel prices.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 16, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East.  Humanitarian Coordinator for Gaza Sigrid Kaag reports to the Council her latest findings.

·       UN Security Council The UN nuclear watchdog IAEA holds its annual General Conference in Geneva.

·       The UN Special Rapporteurs will press conference on violence and human rights violations in Gaza, occupied Palestinian Territories in Geneva.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Former President Donald Trump launches his cryptocurrency platform World Liberty Financial with a live address from Mar-a-Lago, Florida.

·       Pennsylvania beings early voting.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales Final (July)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (July)

·       USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (September)/ NOPA Crush Report

·       Colombia Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (July)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       ASEAN Economic ministers gather in Vientiane. The high-level gathering, meant to foster economic cooperation and integration, comes as the region continues to navigate challenges brought by geopolitical tensions and China's slowing economy.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (August)

·       India Passenger Vehicles Sales (August)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (July)

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Germany will introduce stricter controls at its land borders for the next six months. 

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Research Ministers through September 17 in Budapest, Hungary. 

·       Audi unions have called for demonstration by auto workers against job losses in Europe.

·       An initiative group headed by Armenia's former justice minister will begin collecting signatures on the issue of holding a referendum on Armenia's accession to the European Union.

Economic Reports/Events –

European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in a conversation at event VII Foro Banca organized by El Economista in Madrid, Spain.

European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a speech at the European Investment Bank Chief Economists' meeting in Luxembourg.

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (August)

·       Euro Area ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts/ ECB Guindos Speech/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Labour Cost Index Q2/ Wage Growth Q2/ ECB Lane Speech

·       Italy Inflation Rate Final (August)/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (July)

·       Serbia Building Permits (July)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (August)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (July)

·       Turkey Auto Production (August)/ Auto Sales (August)/ Budget Balance (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q2/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Oman Inflation Rate (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (August)

Tuesday, September 17, 2024

Global

·       In Geneva, A UN sponsored independent international Fact-Finding Mission Venezuela’s latest report to the Human Rights Council will be launched.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Former Bolivian President Evo Morales and allied unions begin march to La Paz to call for his presidential candidacy.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Housing Starts (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ CPI Median (August)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (August)

·       USA Retail Sales (August)/ Redbook (September/14)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Capacity Utilization (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)/ Business Inventories (July)/ Fed Logan Speech/ NAHB Housing Market Index (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/13)/ International Monetary Market (IMM) Date

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Unemployment Rate Final Q2

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Japan Tertiary Industry Index (July)

·       India WPI Food & Fuel Index (August)/ WPI Inflation (August)/ WPI Manufacturing (August)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (September/17)

·       Australia RBA Jones Speech

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·        European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will announce plans for the make-up of her next commission in the European Parliament. 

·       The European Parliament will hold its first plenary session since the summer break (its second since EU elections in June) through September 19.  They are expected to debate and vote on a resolution on Venezuela and the recent fraudulent elections.

·       Moldova will host a ministerial conference within the Moldova Partnership Platform to support the country's European integration.  This is being done in conjunction with the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) making a pre-electoral visit to Moldova through September 18 to assess the country's political climate. 

·       Milan Fashion Week begins.  Derek Zoolander will not be there.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives opening remark at the Supervisory Culture Conference organized by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates on a panel entitled Culture and Supervisory Risk Tolerance" at Supervisory Culture Conference organized by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates on a panel Participation entitled "Supervisory Effectiveness" at Supervisory Culture Conference organized by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (September)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (September)/ ZEW Current Conditions (September)

·       Belarus GDP (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Current Account Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Consumer Confidence Q3

Wednesday, September 18, 2024

Global

·       The UN General Assembly will hold a special session, vote on Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories.  It is expected they will vote to call on Israel to end military action in Gaza and withdraw.  The resolution is expected to call Israel’s actions there as “unlawful.”

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA).  

·       The G20 Research and Innovation Ministerial meeting will be held in Manaus, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       New York City will hold its Inaugural National Urban Rat Summit on combatting rat infestations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meets to discuss interest rates.  Fed Chair Powell will host a press conference afterward at 2:30 p.m. EST.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/13)/ Building Permits Prel (August)/ Housing Starts (August)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (September/13)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (July)/ Foreign Bond Investment (July)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (July)

·       Mexico Aggregate Demand Q2/ Private Spending Q2

·       Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (July)/ BoC Summary of Deliberations

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (July)

·       Argentina GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Central Bank of Brazil Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India's Jammu and Kashmir holds local elections , marking the Himalayan region's first polls in a decade and five years after New Delhi yanked its special autonomy status. The vote will be held over several phases with results expected early next month.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Westpac Consumer Confidence Q3/ Current Account Q2

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Machinery Orders (July)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (August)

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (August)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate (September)

·       India M3 Money Supply (September/06)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Services PMI (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets International Committee of the Red Cross President Mirjana Spoljaric in Moscow.  Spoljaric will be attending the 4th Eurasian Women’s Forum being held in Moscow.

·       Swedish Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard will make her first foreign visit to Turkey since Turkey allowed Sweden to join NATO.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives opening remarks at the  Supervision Innovators Conference 2024 "Technology and banking supervision connected" organized by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives a speech on "The future of European banking supervision - connecting people and technology" at Supervision Innovators Conference 2024 "Technology and banking supervision connected" organized by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI Output (August)/ PPI Input (August)/ Retail Price Index (August)

·       Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)

·       Euro Area ECB Buch Speech/ Inflation Rate Final (August)/ Construction Output (July)/ CPI Final (August)/ ECB McCaul Speech

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (July)

·       Russia PPI (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Oman M2 Money Supply (July)/ Total Credit (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Africa Aerospace and Defence (AAD) Begins in Centurion, South Africa.

·       significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Ghana GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August)

Thursday, September 19, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East (Gaza and Israeli settlements). 

·       G7 Culture Ministers meet Positano, Italy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Wisconsin starts mailing ballots to voters who requested them.

·       Colombia’s Workers Central Union will hold protests in Bogota in support of President Gustavo Petro’s economic and social policies. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA Current Account Q2/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/14)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (September)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (September)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (September)/ Philly Fed Employment (September)/ Philly Fed New Orders (September)/ Philly Fed Prices Paid (September)/ Existing Home Sales (August)/ CB Leading Index (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September/13)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/18)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/18)

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (July)/ Imports (July)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (August)/ Unemployment Rate Q2

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       The Bank of Japan meets to decide interest rates.

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (September/14)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/14)

·       Australia Employment Change (August)/ Participation Rate (August)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Taiwan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       China's Commerce Minister Wang Wentao holds talks with EU's Valdis Dombrovskis on EV tariffs in Brussels.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Transportation Ministers in Budapest, Hungary through September 20.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen will participate in a press conference with Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, on support to Ukraine’s energy security for the coming winter.  Later, she will host a working lunch with the leaders of the six Western Balkan partners.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of England meets to discuss and decide interest rates.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in an exchange of views on "Current aspects of monetary policy" with Association of German Banks (Committee for Economic and Monetary Policy) in Frankfurt, Germany.  Later, she chairs a session entitled “Jean Monnet Lecture” at the 9th ECB Annual Research Conference in Frankfurt.

·       European Union New Car Registrations (August)

·       Euro Area Current Account (July)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (August)/ SECO Economic Forecasts

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (August)/ Employment Growth (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ PPI (August)

·       Italy Current Account (July)

·       Serbia Current Account (July)

·       Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending & Borrowing Rate (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/13)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

·       Slovakia Current Account (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (September)

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (July)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

·       Angola Interest Rate Decision

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (August)

Friday, September 20, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria). 

·       The UN’s Summit of the Future Action Days  begins and runs through September 23 in New York.  The theme is "#YouthLead for the Future: We believe in the promise of a better world for all". 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Minnesota and South Dakota start mail and in-person early voting; Virginia begins in-person early voting.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on "The Federal Reserve: It's More Than Just Interest Rates" before the Tulane University Freeman School of Business Lecture event in New Orleans, Louisiana.

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (August)/ Retail Sales (July)/ PPI (August)/ Raw Materials Prices (August)

·       USA Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/20)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (August)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (August)

·       Argentina Leading Indicator (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Inflation Rate (August)/ BoJ Interest Rate Decision

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (September)

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (August)

·       Hong Kong Current Account Q2/ Inflation Rate (August)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (September/06)/ Deposit Growth (September/06)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/13)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Czech Republic holds the first round of Senate elections.

·       Today is the deadline for EU member states under excessive deficit procedure to issue their medium-term fiscal adjustment plans, which most countries are set to miss. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the 2024 Michel Camdessus Central Banking Lecture organized by the IMF in Washington, DC.  She then participates in a conversation with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva at the IMF.

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Board Catherine Mann gives the keynote speech at the Central Bank Research Association, National Bank of Poland, and Bank of Lithuania 5th Biennial Conference entitled “Macroeconomic adjustments after large global shocks” in Lithuania.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Prudential Policy David Bailey gives a speech at the Building Societies Association entitled “Strong and Simple – Completing the Picture” in London.

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (September)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing (August)

·       Germany PPI (August)

·       France Business Confidence (September)

·       Switzerland Current Account Q2

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (September)/ Central Government Debt (August)

·       Greece Current Account (July)

·       Italy Construction Output (June)/ Construction Output (July)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (July)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (September)/ PPI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash (September)

·       Slovakia Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Russia Consumer Confidence Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (August)/ Total Credit Growth (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (August)

·       Ghana PPI (August)

Saturday, September 21, 2024

Global

·       The G20 Tourism Ministerial Meetings take place in Belem, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Joe Biden will host the Quad Summit in Wilmington, Delaware.  The leaders of Australia, Japan, and India will gather to discuss security issues in the Indo-Pacific.

·       Today is the federal deadline for all absentee ballots to be mailed to military and overseas voters. Eleven states will send out their mail-in ballots by this day, and North Carolina is expected to as well.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Sri Lanka holds Presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Oktoberfest begins in Munich, Germany and runs through October 6.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nigeria holds gubernatorial elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 22, 2024 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Thailand New Car Sales (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Germany, the state of Brandenburg holds state elections.

·       Switzerland holds a referendum vote on initiative to strengthen biodiversity protection.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today in South Sudan is the deadline for dissolution of the transitional unity government ahead of possible December elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Summer is Over, and A Hectic Autumn Begins: US Elections Heat Up, China Ramps Up Relations with Africa, Germany’s Historic Elections, And What US Job Figures Will Tell Markets

September 1 - 8, 2024

Summer is now over (per the UK Meteorological calendar, which says September 1 is the first day of Autumn, and we are entering a hectic and likely historic autumn.   The US presidential elections loom a little over two months away (the first presidential debate between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is scheduled for September 10).  

But in the coming week, there will be some very significant events markets will watch closely.  Beijing will be bustling this coming week as China hosts the China-Africa Forum.  Leaders from across Africa will attend the meeting to discuss climate issues, increased trade opportunities, and likely new loans from China to many of the attending countries.  The meeting is all part of Beijing's efforts to expand its influence across the continent while securing critical mineral rights and increased trade opportunities.

But that is not all that is happening in Beijing this week.  UK Foreign Minister David Lammy is expected to visit for meetings with China's top diplomat, Wang Yi, and a possible meeting with President Xi Jinping.  Additionally, Chief US Climate Advisor to President Biden, John Podesta, will visit to discuss cementing new climate goals. At the same time, US Undersecretary of Commerce for International Trade, Marisa Lago, will travel to Tianjin, China for meetings with her counterpart on a wide range of issues stressing the US-China relationship.  Both the Podesta and Lago meetings come on the heal of US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan's meeting with President Xi and Foreign Minister Wang last week. 

The big event in Europe this week is the state elections held today in Germany (Sunday) – the impact of which is shaking most of the rest of Europe and beyond.  The states of Saxony and Thuringia held votes, and it appears the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) Party has won in Thuringia – the first time a far-right party has won a state poll since World War II.  The AfD took second place in Saxony – but just by a little more than a percentage point – to the Christian Democrat Party.  Additionally, the far-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) showed growing strength in both elections, coming in third in both, while the ruling SPD Party came in a very weak fourth place.  

Both the AfD and the BSW strongly oppose military and financial aid to Ukraine, and both have expressed sympathy for Russian President Vladimir Putin's views on the War.  However,  neither party is expected to win enough seats to form a ruling coalition.  And virtually no other party wants to create a coalition with the AfD due to their neo-Nazi leanings.

Also, this week in Europe, former Italian Prime Minister and  European Central Bank Chief Mario Draghi will meet with EU Parliamentary leaders to discuss a forthcoming "landmark" report on EU competitiveness.  Last year, EU President Ursula von der Leyen asked Draghi to conduct the study and recommend how the EU can better compete globally.  The report is expected to make a number of seismic recommendations, primarily aimed at filling the productivity gap between the EU, the US, and China.

Also this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin travels to Mongolia to commemorate the joint Soviet-Mongolian defeat of Japan in World War II.  But the real significance of the trip is that Mongolia is a signatory of the International Criminal Court, which has a warrant out for Putin's arrest since 2023 for war crimes.  This is Putin's first visit to an ICC signatory nation since he directed the invasion of Ukraine.  Mongolia has no intention of honoring that signature or of arresting Putin, a blow to the ICC's stature.

Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen for the coming week, markets are looking at the US jobs report (non-farm payrolls) being released this coming Friday (will they be softer or more robust than expected, and will that, in turn, lead to a larger rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this month?).   Also this week, the Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book, and the Bank of Canada meets to decide interest rates.

Moving to Asia, China releases PMIs and the Caixin indexes, while Japan releases closely watched wage figures, and Australia releases second-quarter GDP figures.

In Europe, markets will closely follow the EU Parliament's reception of the Draghi reported above.   Meanwhile, Germany will release closely watched industrial production and trade balance figures as well as factory orders—all critical indicators of whether the German economy is beginning to recover or is still struggling. 

Below are the other key events around the world we are watching closely:

Sunday, September 1, 2024 

Global

·       Slovenia assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of September.

·       UN General-Secretary Antonio Guterres visits Singapore for meetings.  He will then travel to China to participate in the China-Africa Forum.

·       Today is the first day of Autumn per the UK Met Meteorological calendar.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Chief US Climate Advisor to President Biden, John Podesta, will travel to China for meetings on how to advance further mutual climate agreements.

·       Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador gives an annual speech on the executive branch’s accomplishments, similar to a State of the Nation address.  President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum will be sworn into office on October 1.   Also, Mexican students are expected to turn out in large numbers to protest the President’s proposed judicial reform effort.  The lower chamber of Congress, sworn into office today, begins debate on the measure today.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indonesia hosts the 2nd Annual Indonesia-Africa Forum in Bali.  Indonesian President Joko Widodo and more than 30 African leaders will meet for three days to discuss how to deepen political and economic ties, build stronger supply chains and healthcare systems.

·       Azerbaijan holds parliamentary elections.

·       Today is Uzbekistan Independence Day, celebrating when the country was able to declare its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

·       Today is Constitution Day in Kazakhstan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade AUG

·       Australia CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM AUG

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Germany, state elections will be held in Saxony and Thuringia.  The far-right AfD Party is expected to win a significant share and possibly a majority of the votes.

·       UK Foreign Minister David Lammy will travel to Beijing for meetings to discuss trade and security issues.

·       Czechia will hold regional elections and the election of one-third of the Senate.

·       The GLOBSEC Forum 2024 will be held in Prague, Czechia. 

·       Border Force agents at Heathrow Airport are expected to go on strike through September 3.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 2, 2024

Global

·       Pope Francis begins a four-country Asia visit over twelve days and participates in more than 40 events.  Improving the Catholic-Muslim dialogue and climate change is at his agenda.  He will begin the trip to Indonesia, then travel to Papua New Guinea, East Timor, and Singapore.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris and President Joe Biden hold a campaign event in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

·       Bolivia is bracing for widespread national protests over the current economic crisis and shortage of dollars and fuel.

·       Today is Labor Day in the US and Canada. Financial markets and banks, as well as the US and Canadian governments, are closed.

·       Today is the 79th Anniversary of “VJ Day” when Japanese Foreign Minister Mamoru Shigemitsu and General Yoshijiro Umezu, on board the American warship the U.S.S. Missouri, signed the Potsdam Declaration, a document of surrender that the Allies had drawn up.

Economic Reports/Events

·       Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ Business Confidence (August)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (July)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South African President Cyril Ramaphosa will begin a state visit to China that runs through September 5.  Ramaphosa is also going to attend the Forum on China-Africa (Focac).  China is South Africa’s largest trading partner in Africa with more than $34 billion in exports to South Africa in 2023.  South Africa exported more than $12 billion to China in 2023.

·       South Korea will conduct a drill in Incheon on how to respond to “Disease X,” an unknown pathogen when it is detected and how to respond.

·       The BIMSTEC Summit (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) begins in Bangkok, Thailand and runs through September 4.

·       Today is Independence Day in Vietnam, marking the day the country was independent from France in 1945.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (August)/ Building Permits (July)/ Company Gross Profits Q2/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (August)/ Business Inventories Q2/ Private House Approvals Prel (July)/ Commodity Prices (August)

·       Japan Capital Spending Q2/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (August)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)/ Inflation Rate (August)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Business Confidence (August)

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (August)

·       Kazakhstan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ Wholesale Prices (August)

·       Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• French President Emmanual Macron is expected to meet with former Socialist Party official Bernard Cazeneuve about possibly serving as the next French Prime Minister.  Macron has been struggling to form a new government after recent elections.

• There will be an Informal Meeting of the EU General Affairs Council in Budapest, Hungary, through September 3.  The agenda will address two priorities of the Hungarian Presidency – which are interlinked: boosting the EU’s competitiveness and tackling demographic challenges. A plenary session will examine the possibilities of enhancing competitiveness and the rule of law through better law-making, followed by breakout sessions on the different aspects of competitiveness. Ministers will discuss demographic challenges during their working lunch. 

• The Bled Strategic Forum begins in Bled, Slovenia, and runs through September 3.  EU President Ursula von der Leyen will speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Average Weekly Earnings Q2/ Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ GNP Q2

·       Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Final (June)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (July)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Spain Tourist Arrivals (July)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)/ New Car Sales (August)

·       Turkey GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ PPI (July)/ New Car Registrations (August)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (August)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (August)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (August)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (August)

·       Serbia GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel’s largest labor union, the Histadrut Labor Federation, has called for a one-day strike to protest the government’s failure to secure a cease-fire in Gaza and the failure to get the hostages back.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (July)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (July)/ Private Bank Lending (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Africa Food Systems Summit begins in Kigali, Rwanda and runs through September 6.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (August)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (August)

Tuesday, September 3, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (July)/ Gross Fixed Investment (June)

·       USA Redbook (August/31)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (August)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (August)/ Construction Spending (July)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (August)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (August)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (September)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (August)/ Total Vehicle Sales (August)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (August)

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Mongolia to mark the 85th anniversary of the victory of Soviet and Mongolian forces over Japan in World War II.  This is a significant trip as Mongolia is a signatory to the International Criminal Court (ICC) which has a warrant out for the arrest of Putin for war crimes.  

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Exports/ Imports/ Terms of Trade Q2/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (September/03)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (August)

·       Australia Current Account Q2/ Net Exports Contribution to GDP Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Former Volkswagen CEO Martin Winterkorn goes on trial for his role in the “Dieselgate” scandal.

·       Russia will host the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok through September 6.  Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and several other Asian leaders ae expected to attend.

·       The 32nd International Defense Industry Exhibition begins in Kielce, Poland.  Approximately 800 defense industry representatives will gather to exhibit the latest in military hardware.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank Single Supervisory Mechanism and he European Banking Authority are jointly hosting a conference in Frankfurt looking at supervisory convergence. The conference runs through September 4.  Today, a host of international bank regulators and central bankers are speaking including Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu, Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden, European Central Bank Board Members Kerstin Jochnick, Elizabeth McCaul, IMF Deputy Director for Monetary and Capital Markets Marina Moretti, ohn Berrigan, Director General for Financial Stability, Financial Services and Capital Markets Union, European Commission, Jennifer Burns, Deputy Director, Division of Supervision & Regulation, Federal Reserve Board, Agustín Carstens, General Manager of the Bank of International Settlements.

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (August)

·       Romania PPI (July)

·       Hungary GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       France Budget Balance (July)

·       Slovakia Real Wages Q2

·       Spain Unemployment Change (August)/ Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (August)

·       Qatar Financial Centre PMI (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye will travel to China for a state visit through September 6.

·       The World Congress on Industrial Biotechnology will convene in Harare, Zimbabwe.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (August)

·       South Africa GDP Growth Rate Q2

Wednesday, September 4, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Negotiators from the European Union and the Mercosur trade bloc of South American countries will meet in Brasilia to resume free trade negotiations through September 6. 

·       The US will host the fifth meeting of the U.S.-South Korea Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group in Washington, DC.

·       In Bolivia, the Movement Towards Socialism National Congress will meet.  Former President Evo Morales is expected to lay out his strategy to become the next president.

·       New York Fashion Week for the Spring/Summer 2025 season begins.  Will Derek Zoolander be there?  Or Hansel?  He’s so hot right now.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/30)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ JOLTs Job Openings (July)/ Factory Orders (July)/ Fed Beige Book/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/30)

·       Brazil Industrial Production (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (August)

·       Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and press conference/Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (August)

·       Colombia PPI (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Singapore through September 5.

·       The Forum on China-Africa Cooperation begins in Beijing and runs through September 6.  This is the largest diplomatic event China has held in recent years.  African leaders normally sign a number of large loan agreements with Beijing at this event, but this year may be different as China’s economy struggles and the government is expected to cut back the size of loans.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Australia Ai Group Industry/ Construction/ Manufacturing Index (August)/ Judo Bank Services/ Composite PMI Final (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q2/ GDP Chain Price Index Q2/ GDP Final Consumption Q2/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (August)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Services/ Composite PMI Final (August)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       China Caixin Services/ Composite PMI (August)

·       India HSBC Services/ Composite PMI Final (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August/23)

·       Kazakhstan S&P Global Services PMI (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Former Italian Prime Minister and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will give an initial presentation of his landmark report on EU competitiveness to senior members of the various political groups of the European Parliament.  The report is likely to propose “a radical change” for EU’s economy. More than 400 pages long, the report looks at the energy, defense, and other major sectors and how they can become more globally competitive.  A formal presentation of the report will take place in the latter half of September.

·       UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer takes part in first Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) following the end of the summer recess.  The UK Parliament came back into session on Monday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will give a  keynote speech at the Joint European Banking Authority & European Central Bank international conference "Addressing supervisory challenges through enhanced cooperation" in Frankfurt.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Russia S&P Global Services/ Composite PMI (August)

·       Spain HCOB Services/ Composite PMI (August)

·       Italy HCOB Services/ Composite PMI (August)

·       France HCOB Services/ Composite PMI (August)

·       Germany HCOB Services/ Composite PMI (August)

·       Euro Area HCOB Services/ Composite PMI (August)/ PPI (July)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (July)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Composite PMI Final (August)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (September)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Prel (August)/ Auto Production & Sales (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi will meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara, Turkey. The two leaders are expected to discuss the situation in Gaza and expansion of trade.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (August)

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The World Conference on Soil, Water, Energy and Air will take place in Victoria, Seychelles.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (August)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (August)/ Business Confidence Q3

·       Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (August)

·       Ghana S&P Global PMI (August)

Thursday, September 5, 202 

Global

·       In Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, the Fifth Global Conference on Strengthening Synergies between the Paris Agreement on Climate Change and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development: Building a Just World and a Sustainable Planet will be held through September 6. The Conference is being co-convened by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat, and hosted by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Brazil. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The tax fraud trial of Hunter Biden, President Biden’s son, begins in Los Angeles, California.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (August)/ ADP Employment Change (August)/ Initial Jobless Claims (August/31)/ S&P Global Services/ Composite PMI (August)/ ISM Services PMI (August)/ EIA Natural Gas & Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (August/30)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/04)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/04)

·       Canada Labor Productivity Q2/ S&P Global Services/ Composite PMI (August)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (August)

·       Colombia Exports (July)

·       Brazil Car Production (August)/ New Car Registrations (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Perth, Australia, Japan and Australia hold a 2-plus-2 defense and foreign ministers’ meetings.  Japan's Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa and Defense Minister Minoru Kihara will meet with Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Defense Minister Richard Marles in the first 2-plus-2 meeting since late 2022 in Tokyo. The primary focus of the meetings is China’s growing military expansion in the Indo-Pacific.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Hajime Takata gives a speech to local business leaders in in Ishikawa, Japan/ Japan Average Cash Earnings (July)/ Overtime Pay (July)/ Foreign Bond Investment (August/31)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August/31)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (August)

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock will give a speech at the Anika Foundation in Sydney, Australia/Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (August)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (July)

·       Malaysia Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU ministers responsible for cohesion policy in Budapest, Hungary through September 6.  The agenda, according to the Hungarian government, which is chairing the EU through December, is to hold a high-level debate on the Policy's role in promoting competitiveness and employment, and effectively addressing demographic challenges. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen will participate in a fireside chat at Handelsblatt Banking Summit 2024 "Navigating the Storm: Banking Amid Interest Rate Changes, Real Estate Crises, and Geopolitical Uncertainty” in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Germany Factory Orders (July)/ New Car Registrations (August)

·       Romania Retail Sales (July)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Prel (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       France HCOB Construction PMI (August)/ New Car Registrations (July)

·       Germany HCOB Construction PMI (August)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (August)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (August)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (August)

·       Serbia PPI (August)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/30)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Jordan PPI (July)

·       Israel Business Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Current Account Q2

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, September 6, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will give a speech at the University of Notre Dame’s Department of Economics.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to speak before the C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics organized by the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

·       Chile Inflation Rate (August)

·       Mexico Auto Exports (August)/ Auto Production (August)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (August)/ Employment Change (August)/ Participation Rate (August)/ Ivey PMI s.a (August)

·       USA Unemployment Rate (August)/ Participation Rate (August)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/06)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (August)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is expected to travel to Seoul, South Korea for meetings with President Yook Suk Yeol.   It will be one of Kishada’s last foreign trips before he steps down from office.  Bilateral relations between Japan and South Korea have warmed up considerably since the resolution this past March between the two countries over how to compensate Koreans who were forced to labor for Japanese occupation forces during World War II.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (July)

·       Japan Household Spending (July)/ Coincident Index Prel (July)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (July)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Australia Home Loans (July)/ Investment Lending for Homes (July)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (August/23)/ Deposit Growth (August/23)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/30)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Ukraine Defense Contact Group will meet at Ramstein Airbase in Ramstein, Germany.  Approximately 50 countries will be represented at the meeting chaired by US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.  The focus of the meeting will be to further coordinate aid as well as find ways to accelerate military aid to Ukraine.

·       The 50th European House-Ambrosetti Conference takes place through September 7 in Milan, Italy.  Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban will speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives a keynote speech at the ESCB Legal Conference 2024 (a virtual event).

·       France Non-Farm Payrolls Q2/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Current Account (July)

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Industrial Production (July)

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est Q2

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (August)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (August)

·       Hungary Industrial Production Prel (July)/ Budget Balance (August)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (July)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Italy Retail Sales (July)

·       Euro Area GDP Growth Rate 3rd Est Q2/ Employment Change Final Q2

·       Greece Balance of Trade (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Ireland Construction Output Q2

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ Vehicle Sales (August)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Swaziland Independence Day, marking the day the country was granted independence from the UK in 1968.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Saturday, September 7, 2024

Global

·       The 13th BRICS Trade Union Forum will occur in Sochi, Russia.  The meeting brings together the leaders of the major trade unions of the respective BRIC member nations to better coordinate amongst themselves on worker-related issues.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Undersecretary of Commerce for International Trade Marisa Lago will travel to Tianjin, China, for a meeting with China’s Vice Minister Wang Shouwen.  They are expected to discuss a wide range of topics, including US tariffs on China. The meeting will follow the recent visit of US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan to Beijing.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez will visit Beijing and Shanghai for meetings through September 12.  Sanchez, who has been plagued with corruption charges against him and his wife, is expected to discuss ongoing trade disputes between the EU and China, which have hit Spain in the areas of pork products, dairy, and brandy exports.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Algeria holds presidential elections. Incumbent President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, who is not popular among the electorate, faces two weak challengers and is expected to win in a landslide.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 8, 2024

Global

• The Paralympics’ closing ceremony is held in Paris.

• The World Nomad Games begin in Kazakhstan.  Athletes compete in 21 different types of sports, including Tug-of-War, Horseback Wrestling, Traditional Archery, Horseback Archery, Kok Boru (where horse riders from two teams compete to tear a goat’s carcass from the ground and break through the opposing team’s defenses and put it in the opponents goal), Mas-Wrestling (where two opponents sit opposite each other, resting their feet on a board between their feet, and pull on a stick. The one who pulls the stick or the other guy or both over the board wins), and more.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the deadline for Mexico’s government to present its 2025 budget proposal to Congress.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture and Fisheries Ministers in Budapest, Hungary through September 10. In addition to the informal meeting of the ministers, there will be a number of programs offering an insight into Hungarian culture and gastronomy. On the 8th of September ministers and their delegations will be welcomed with a Danube cruise and an opening dinner in the House of Music Hungary.  The meeting will conclude on the September 10 with a kick-off debate on a farmer-focused post 2027 Common Agricultural Policy Towards a competitive, crisis-proof, sustainable, farmer-friendly and knowledge-based future EU agriculture at the Conference Hall of Várkert Bazaar.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.