The Global Week Ahead: December 11 - 18, 2022

It seems to be getting busier – not slower – globally as we approach the holidays… This week, President Biden will host a summit with more than 50 African heads of state in Washington. The big news coming from it leaked this weekend: The US will endorse the African Union becoming a member of the G20, a long-held aspiration of African leaders as they seek to be better heard on the global stage.

Other significant events this week include Japan publishing a new strategic defense document that will codify their efforts to build a sizeable counterattack force in the face of rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific. This comes as the US opens its first Space Force operations in South Korea to assist in defending against North Korea’s growing missile capabilities. Closer to home, the US government will endure yet another partial shutdown unless Congress can agree on government spending. 

On the global economic agenda this week, we will be watching as the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England all decide on policy rates. All three are expected to lessen the pace of rate increases from 75 basis points to 50 basis points. Also, this week, we will see US inflation figures which come out on Tuesday, the day before the Fed rates decision. We will also be looking closely at PMIs coming out all over the globe this week. 

Here is what we are watching around the world this week – and let us know if you have any questions or wish to add anyone to our email list:

Sunday, December 11, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       A delegation of senior US national security and diplomat officials will travel to Beijing as follow-up meetings coming from President Biden’s meeting with President Xi at the G20 Summit.  This is seen as a positive outcome from the Biden-Xi meetings, and the overall agenda for the US-Chinese officials is, according to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, to continue “responsibly managing the competition” and “explore areas of cooperation.”  The US officials were already scheduled for consultation meetings in Japan and South Korea through December 14th but will now incorporate meetings with Chinese officials, as well.

·       Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court will certify Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s presidential election victory.  He will be formally inaugurated as president on January 1, 2023.

·       NASA’s Artemis I due to splashdown back down on Earth.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will hold phone calls with the presidents of Russia and Ukraine.  The purpose of the calls is to discuss the UN-backed Black Sea grain deal and the ongoing war in Ukraine.

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets today and tomorrow seeking to reach a political agreement on fishing opportunities in EU and non-EU waters for 2023. They will also discuss the market situation, CAP strategic plans, geographical indications and quality schemes, animal welfare, as well as the sustainable use of plant protection products and front of pack labelling.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel’s formal deadline for the formation of a new government under Benjamin Netanyahu. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Burkina Faso celebrates Proclamation of Independence Day

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, December 12, 2022:

Global

·       G7 Leaders Meeting via video conference.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (IRMCT). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Security Council subsidiary organs. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Congress is in session all week and hopes to hold a vote on an Omnibus appropriations bill. But as of this weekend, Republicans and Democrats remain billions of dollars apart in reaching a deal.  Failure to reach a deal will result in a partial government shutdown.  Separately, the Senate is poised to vote sometime this week on a $858 billion defense spending bill that was passed by the House of Representatives last week. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Consumer Inflation Expectations (November), Monthly Budget Statement (November),

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem participates in a fireside chat hosted by the Business Council of British Columbia in Vancouver, BC.

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, Business Confidence (December)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Thailand celebrates Constitution Day, a national holiday.

·       In Japan, the kanji – or Chinese character – that best describes this year’s social mood in Japan is selected.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       India Manufacturing Production (October), Inflation (November), Industrial Production (October),

·       Japan PPIs (November),  BSI Large Manufacturing (Q4), Machine Tool Orders (November)

·       Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (October & November)

·       Philippines FDI (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets to discuss the situation in Ukraine as well as in Iran.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will meet with ambassadors from the Commonwealth of Independent States in Moscow. 

·       The Eastern Partnership Foreign Ministers meet in Brussels.  Composed of the EU Foreign Ministers and the Foreign Ministers of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, the Republic of Moldova, and Ukraine, they will discuss mutual security concerns.

·       EU President Ursula von Der Leyen meets with Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), and then conducts a joint press conference with him. Later in the day, she participates in a G7 Leaders meeting via video conference.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       UK GDP (October), Manufacturing (October), Balance of Trade (October), Construction Output (October), Industrial Production (October), NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (November)

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Unemployment Rate (October), Current Account (October), Participation Rate (October), Auto Production (November)

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (October),

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Kenya celebrates Jamhuri Day – Independence Day – a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (November)

·       Ethiopia Inflation (November)

·       Tanzania Inflation (November)

Tuesday, December 13, 2022:

Global

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) and South Sudan sanctions.  

·       The virtual World Space Forum 2022 begins and runs through December 15th.  The Forum, organized jointly by the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA), the Federal Ministry for Climate Action, Environment, Energy, Mobility, Innovation and Technology (BMK) and the Federal Ministry for Europe, Integration and Foreign Affairs (BMEIA), it will continue until 15 December.    

·       The annual Geminids meteor shower is likely to peak on Tuesday evening – watch for lots of shooting stars.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Biden will be hosting the US-Africa Leaders’ Summit in Washington, DC. Through December 15th.  More than 50 heads of state are expected to attend. Africa is set to be a major focus for the Biden Administration for the next two years in a. bid to help advance the continent economically and to push back on growing Chinese influence. In advance of the meeting, the White House announced that President Biden will announce his support of the African Union joining the G20 going forward, a major goal of the Union for a number of years.

·       The founder and former CEO of the failed crypto exchange FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried, is expected to testify remotely before the House Financial Services Committee to explain what happened and where billions of dollars in crypto accounts disappeared to.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Markets Committee starts two days of meetings to discuss interest rates.  A decision on interest rates announced with a press conference afterward with Fed Chair Jay Powell.

·       US NFIB Business Optimism Index (November), Inflation Rate Figures (November), CPI (November), Redbook (December), IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (December)

·       Canada New Motor Vehicles Sales (October)

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (December), NAB Business Confidence (November)

·       Philippines Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (October)

·       Hong Kong Industrial Production (Q3)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Extraordinary Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council meets to consider a proposal for a Council regulation on a temporary gas market correction mechanism.

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets focus on the upcoming European Council meeting (December 15th) and discuss the annual rule of law dialogue and follow-up to the Conference on the Future of Europe. The Council will be called upon to approve the Joint Declaration on the EU legislative priorities for 2023-2024 and conclusions on enlargement and stabilization and association process.

·       Malta celebrates Republic Day, a national holiday.

·       The European Space Agency launches an Ariane 5 rocket carrying the Metosat 3rd generation satellite.  The launch takes place in French Guiana.

·       The UK will see a 48-hour strike by more than 40,000 Network Rail and 14 other rail unions over jobs, pay, and working conditions.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (December)

·       Germany Inflation Rate (November), CPI (November), ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (December), ZEW Current Conditions (December)

·       France Non-Farm Payrolls (Q3)

·       UK Employment Rate (October), HMRC Payrolls Change (November)

·       Bank of England publishes their financial stability report.

·       Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts

·       Italy Industrial Production (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Industrial Production (October), Retail Sales (October)

·       Israel Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       South Africa's National Assembly is expected to vote on the adoption of an advisory panel's report recommending an impeachment investigation into President Cyril Ramaphosa.  Ramaphosa is accused of keeping millions of US dollars in a sofa at his farmhouse.  When the money was stolen, it is alleged he did not report the crime to cover up the fact that he illegally kept that much foreign currency.  Ramaphosa will almost assuredly be renominated by the ANC Party at their December 16th election conference and, considering his high popularity polls in South Africa, will unlikely be impeached.

·       The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Ghana are expected to reach a staff-level agreement on a loan likely in the $3 billion range.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (October), Mining Production (October)

Wednesday, December 14, 2022:

Global

·       The International Energy Agency (IEA) will release the December Oil Market Report.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Maintenance of international peace and security.  The debate is entitled “new orientation for reformed multilateralism.”  

·       The World Health Organization (WHO) will today release its Global Analysis and Assessment of Sanitation and Drinking-Water (GLAAS) 2022 report, showing the latest status of drinking-water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) systems in more than 120 countries.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US House of Representative’s January 6th Committee will likely announce criminal referrals they intend to make to the US Justice Department. 

·       The US Securities and Exchange Commission will hold an open meeting to consider four proposed rule changes aimed at increasing transparency and fairness for investors.  The proposals, opposed by segments of the securities industry, are likely to pass a commission vote.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee announces rate increase. Fed Chair Jay Powell will hold a press conference immediately afterward.

·       US Import Prices (November), Export Pries (November), MBA Mortgage Markets Index (December), MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December 9)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (October)

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (October)

·       Peru Unemployment (November)

·       Costa Rica Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The US will inaugurate its US Space Forces Korea unit based at Osan Air Base in South Korea.  This comes as North Korea raises tensions on the peninsula with recent launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles. 

·       Senior officials from the International Monetary Fund will make a two-day visit to Bangladesh to discuss a proposed $4.5 billion IMF loan.

·       Fiji holds general elections.

·       SEMI, the global semiconductor industry group, holds its annual Japan trade show Wednesday through Friday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China New Yuan Loans (November), Outstanding Loan Growth (November), Total Social Financing (November), M2 Money Supply (November)

·       India WPI Inflation (November), WPI Food (November), WPI Fuel (November), WPI Manufacturing (November)

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q4),Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index (Q4), Tankan Large All Industry. Capex (Q4), Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook (Q4),  Machinery Orders (October), Industrial Production (October), Capacity Utilization (October)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate (Q3), Car Sales (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU-ASEAN Commemorative Summit will be held in Brussels.  It marks 45 years of diplomatic relations between the two organizations. The two groups will discuss expanding trade and infrastructure cooperation.

·       The 2022 Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought will be awarded by the European Parliament to the Ukrainian people for bravery.   Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to address plenary remotely. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Frank Elderson gives a pre-recorded speech at the Finance and Biodiversity Day-COP15 meetings in Montreal, Canada.

·       Eurozone Industrial Production (October)

·       UK Inflation (November), Retail Price Index (November)

·       Spain Inflation (November), CPI (November)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (November)

·       Poland Industrial Production (October), Balance of Trade (October), Current Account (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will hold talks with the presidents of Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan to discuss projects to deliver Turkmen natural gas across the Caspian Sea and onward to Europe. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Current Account (Q3)

·       Saudi Arabia Interest Rate Decision

·       UA Interest Rate Decision

·       Oman Total Credit (October), M2 Money Supply (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa inflation (November), Retail Sales (October

·       Ghana inflation (November)

·       Mauritius interest-rate decision

·       Kenya monthly fuel prices

Thursday, December 15, 2022:

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security caused by terrorist acts: Global counter-terrorism approach – principles and the way forward. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Colombia and Venezuela will reopen the Tienditas International Bridge border crossing for the first time since the two countries severed diplomatic relations in 2015.

·       NASA will launch the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite.  The role of the satellite is to conduct the world’s first comprehensive survey of Earth’s water surfaces, from oceans to lakes and rivers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Retail Sales (November), Industrial Production (November), Business Inventories (October),  Manufacturing Production (November), Capacity Utilization (November), Initial Jobless Claims (December 10),  Philly Fed Employment (December), Philly Fed Business Conditions (December), Philly Fed CAPEX Index (December), Philly Fed New Orders (December), NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (December), Net Long-Term TIC Flows (October)

·       Canada Housing Starts (November)

·       Mexico Interest Rate Decision

·       Colombia Industrial Production (October), Retail Sales (October)

·       Peru GDP (October), Balance of Trade (October)

·       Argentina GDP (Q3), Inflation Rate (November)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China will host the Central Economic Work Conference in Beijing.  This is the highest-level meeting on economic affairs to be attended by President Xi Jinping and where China’s leadership will set broad economic policy direction for next year. Reports suggest officials will now seek to boost consumer demand and possibly seek to further soften policies around the property sector.   The meeting runs for three days.

·       India will tentatively test the Agni-5, a long-range ballistic missile, from the east coast of Odisha state. The Agni-5 is India’s surface-to-surface ballistic missile capable of hitting a target 5,000 kilometers away with pinpoint accuracy.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China’s People’s Bank of China 1-Year MLF Announcement, Industrial Production (November), Retail Sales (November), House Prices Index (November), Unemployment Rate (November), FDI (November)

·       India Balance of Trade/Imports/Exports (November),  M3 Money Supply (November 28)

·       Japan Balance of Trade/Imports/Exports (November), Tertiary Industry Index (October)

·       Australia Consume Inflation Investments (December), Unemployment Figures (November)

·       Honk Kong Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia Balance of Trade/Imports/Exports (November)

·       South Korea Export Prices (November), Import Prices (November)

·       Taiwan Interest Rate Decision

·       Philippines Interest Rate Decision

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing and Services PMIs (November), PPI (October), Current Account (Q3)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU’s European Council (Heads of State) will meet hold “strategic discussions on transatlantic relations.”  This goes to the ongoing trade fight between the US and EU over green subsidies and tax credits passed by Congress in the Inflation Reduction Act.

·       UK’s nurses are expected to go on strike through December 20th as they seek wage increases.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank meets in Frankfurt, Germany to discuss interest rate increases and the state of the EU economy.  ECB President Christine Lagarde will hold a press conference afterward.

·       ECB Board Member Anneli Tuominen participates in a panel at the “New Frontiers in Banking and Capital Markets Conference” in Rome, Italy.

·       The Bank of England Interest Rate Decision

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (November), New Car Registrations (November)

·       Eurozone New Car Registrations (November)

·       France Business Confidence (December), Inflation Rate (November), Business Climate Indicator (December), New Car Registrations (November)

·       UK New Car Registrations (November)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (October)

·       Italy New Car Registrations (November)

·       Hungary Construction Output (October), New Car Registrations (November)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (November),  New Car Registrations (November)

·       Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision

·       Russia GDP (Q3)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (September and October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Budget Balance (November), FX Reserves (December)

·       Israel Unemployment Rate (November), Inflation Rate (November), M1 Money Supply (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa non-farm payrolls (Q3), PPI (November), Building Permits (October), Central Bank Quarterly Bulletin

·       Namibia GDP (Q3), Inflation (November)

·       Botswana Inflation (November)

·       Nigeria Inflation (November)

·       Mozambique Inflation (November)

Friday, December 16, 2022: 

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold votes linked to the 1988 Committee, regarding Afghanistan. The Security Council is also scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL).    

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US government funding expires. Unless a deal is struck, the government will be partially shut down.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly will speak at an American Enterprise Institute event on "Inflation, the Economy, and the Federal Reserve."

·       US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), S&P Global Services PMI (December),  S&P Global Composite PMI (December)

·       Canada Inflation (November), New Housing Price Index (November), Wholesale Sales (October)

·       Colombia Interest Rate Decision

·       Peru GDP (Q3)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan is expected to approve three defense related strategy documents – including the National Security Strategy – updating for the first time since 2013 Japan’s defense posture.  The documents will codify Japan’s ability to develop a military counterattack capability to any attacks on the country.

·       Kazakhstan celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       India GDP (Q3), FX Reserves (December), Bank Loan Growth (December), Deposit Growth (December)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (December), Jibun Bank Services & Composite PMIs (December)

·       Singapore Balance of Trade/Exports (November)

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs (December)

·       Philippines Business Confidence (Q4)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK’s Heathrow Airport ground handling staff are expected to start a 72-hour strike.

·       Also in the UK, more than 100 Eurostar security staff employed by facilities management company Mitie are due to walk out in a dispute over pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Eurozone Inflation Rate (November), Balance of Trade (October), CPI (November), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), S&P Global Services PMI (December),  S&P Global Composite PMI (December)

·       UK GfK Consumer Confidence (December), Retail Sales (November), S&P Global/CIPS UK Services & Manufacturing & Composite PMIs (December)

·       Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), S&P Global Services PMI (December),  S&P Global Composite PMI (December)

·       France S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), S&P Global Services PMI (December),  S&P Global Composite PMI (December)

·       Italy Balance of Trade (October), Inflation Rate (November), CPI (November)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (November)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       An International Monetary Fund delegation is expected to travel to Egypt to review a plan to release a multibillion-dollar extended fund facility.

·       Bahrain celebrates National Days – today and tomorrow – on the anniversary of its independence.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (November)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana GDP (Q3)

·       Kenya Balance of Trade (July/August/September)

Saturday, December 17, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Bhutan celebrates National Day, a holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Ireland will see Fine Gael political leader Leo Varadkar become Taoiseach (Prime Mininster0 again as part of a coalition agreement with the rival Finna Fáil Party.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Tunisia holds legislative elections. The country has witnessed several major political developments in the last 18 months which are seen as threatening its democratic stability.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       South Africa’s ANC (African National Congress) begins its elective conference and elect party leadership.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 18, 2022: 

Global

·       The World Cup comes to a close in Qatar, with the championship being played today. 

·       The Jewish Festival of Rededication – also known as Hanukkah – begins today and goes through December 25th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Japan, the Saga gubernatorial election is to be held.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Qatar celebrates National Independence Day, a holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP (Q3)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Niger celebrates Republic Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.