The Global Week Ahead

The US Congress Certifies the 2024 Election, Venezuela’s Opposition Leader Meets with Hemispheric Leaders,  and Canadian PM Trudeau Resigns

January 5 - 12, 2025

We regret the late arrival of this week's Reg Week Ahead.   Technical issues prevented us from publishing on our normal schedule.  We have updated it to incorporate Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation announcement today.

We hope you all had a wonderful New Year holiday.  The world returns to work this week following the holidays, and a lot is happening.  First, the US Congress convened in a joint session on Monday to certify the election of President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect J.D. Vance.  The event was relatively quick – about an hour and a half – and much different than four years ago when riots broke out around and inside the Capitol.  

The new Congress was sworn into office last Friday and is busy getting to work.  We would note that Congress's schedule will be quite different this year as the US Senate has adopted a calendar for working five days a week and going for ten straight weeks without a break.  That is quite a change of pace for the Senate, which has worked three days a week for as long as we can remember, allowing members to return home Friday through Monday to meet with constituents.  The market should expect a lot of action in Congress this year at an unrelenting pace. 

Also this week, Venezuela’s exiled opposition leader, Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, will continue a series of meetings throughout the Hemisphere with leaders to bolster support for his victory last July in the presidential elections.  Gonzalez will meet President Biden in Washington and then go to Panama, the Dominican Republic.  He recently met with Argentine President Javier Milei.   Meanwhile, Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro, who by most independent accounts clearly stole the election in July, will be sworn in for a third term in office this coming Friday. 

Finally, we would note that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned from office early Monday morning.  Having served for nine years as Prime Minister, he faced low approval numbers and internal party dissent that led to the resignation of his Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister, Chrystia Freeland.  Freeland is now considered a leading contender to be elected the new leader of the Liberal Party before elections in late October.

Looking at the global radar screen, this week's economic reporting schedule is relatively light.  In the US, markets will be looking at the US jobs report that will be coming out on Friday.  Also out in the US, this week will be the ISM services index on Tuesday and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report on Friday. And last but certainly not least, the Fed releases meeting minutes.

In Asia, China will release inflation data, official PMI prints, and the Caixin services PMI.  In Japan, wage data is out this week, and Bank of Japan regional branch managers are meeting to discuss wage growth. 

Moving to Europe, CPI reports will be released for the Eurozone, France, Germany, and Italy.  The European Central Bank’s consumer expectations survey will also be released on Tuesday.

Below is our weekly report of everything we are watching worldwide this coming week.  Please let us know if you have any questions.

Sunday, January 5, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kazakhstan Freedom Holding Corp. Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Monday, January 6, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Congress holds a joint session to certify the 2024 Presidential elections.

·       Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is expected to resign.

·       President Joe Biden is expected to host a meeting with Venezuelan opposition leader Emundo Gonzalez Urratia at the White House.

·       US Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul in Seoul, South Korea.  Blinken will also travel to Tokyo, Paris, and Rome.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech entitled “Economic Outlook and Financial Stability” at the Seventh Conference on Law and Macroeconomics being held in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (December)/ Balance of Trade (December)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       USA S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (December)/ Factory Orders (November)/ Total Vehicle Sales (December)

·       Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (December)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI Final (December)

·       Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (December)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Netherlands Business Confidence (December)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (November)

·       Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)

·       France HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)/ Hesse CPI (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (December)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (December)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (December)/ Business Confidence (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ M2 Money Supply (November)

·       Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (December)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (December)

·       Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (December)

·       Ghana S&P Global PMI (December)

Tuesday, January 7, 2025

Global

·      Eastern Orthodox Christians celebrate Christmas today. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Japan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks before the Greater Raleigh Chamber Economic Forecast: Launch 2025.

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (December)/ PPI (November)

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       Canada Fed Barkin Speech/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Ivey PMI s.a (December)

·       USA Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Redbook (January/04)/ ISM Services PMI/ Business Activity/ Employment/ New Orders/ Prices (December)/ JOLTs Job Openings (November)/ JOLTs Job Quits (November)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/03)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (December)

·       Colombia PPI (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwan’s military holds combat readiness training sessions.

·       Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will host Singapore Prime Minister Lawerence Wong for bilateral talks.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Building Permits (November)/ Private House Approvals (November)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (December)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       India Fiscal Year GDP Growth Prel 2025-24

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (December)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (January/07)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (December)/ Halifax House Price Index (December)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (December)

·       Netherlands Inflation Rate (December)

·       Hungary PPI (November)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (December)

·       France Inflation Rate (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ HCOB Construction PMI (December)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ CPI Flash (December)

·       Germany HCOB Construction PMI (December)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (December)/ Bavaria CPI (December)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (December)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ Inflation Rate (December)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Spain Business Confidence (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       For the first time in 13 years, Qatar Airways will resume flights to Damascus and Aleppo, Syria.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (December)

·       Qatar Financial Centre PMI (December)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visits Congo.

·       Ghana’s President-elect John Mahama is sworn into office.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Current Account Q3

Wednesday, January 8, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council meets on the situation in Syria.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Paris.

·       Venezuelan opposition leader Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia visits the Dominican Republic.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Lectures of the Governors Event in Paris, France.

·       Chile Inflation Rate (December)

·       Brazil Industrial Production (November)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/03)/ MBA Purchase Index (January/03)/ ADP Employment Change (December)/ Fed Waller Speech/ Initial Jobless Claims (January/04)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (January/03)/ FOMC Minutes/ Consumer Credit Change (November)/ Used Car Prices (December)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (December)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (November)

·       Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (November)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Japan Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Kazakhstan Freedom Holding Corp. Services PMI (December)

·       India M3 Money Supply (December/27)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Conservative top candidate for chancellor Friedrich Merz holds a speech on the final day of the CSU annual meeting in Seeon, Germany.

·       Electronic Travel Authorization (ETA) scheme starts in UK for non-Europeans.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Netherlands Household Consumption (November)

·       Germany Factory Orders (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       Romania Unemployment Rate (November)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Consumer Confidence (December)/ Current Account (November)

·       Euro Area Consumer Confidence Final (December)/ Economic Sentiment (December)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (December)/ Industrial Sentiment (December)/ PPI (November)/ Selling Price Expectations (December)/ Services Sentiment (December)

·       Great Britain BBA Mortgage Rate (December)

·       Ireland Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Serbia PPI (December)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Lebanon’s Parliament will hold a session to try and elect a new president.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ ABSA Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Tanzania Interest Rate Decision/ Inflation Rate (December)

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (November)

Thursday, January 9, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today the US federal government is closed in memoriam for former President Jimmy Carter.  A funeral service will be held today at the National Cathedral in Washington, D.C.

·       Following former President Jimmy Carter’s funeral service, President Joe Biden will fly to Rome for meetings with Pope Francis as well as with Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

·       Venezuelan opposition leader Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia visits Panama.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman will give a speech entitled “Reflections on 2024: Monetary Policy, Economic Performance, and Lessons for Banking Regulation” at te California Bankers Association 2025 Bank Presidents Seminar.

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker speaks on "Right Now, It's Putting One Foot in Front of the Other" before the National Association of Corporate Directors New Jersey Chapter Economic Forecast 2025.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks before the Virginia Bankers Association/Virginia Chamber of Commerce Financial Forecast.

·       Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid speaks on the economic and monetary policy outlook before the Economic Club of Kansas City.

·       Brazil Retail Sales (November)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (December)/ Auto Exports & Production (December)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (December)/Wholesale Inventories (November)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/09/ Fed Balance Sheet (January/08)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (December)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (November)/ Overtime Pay (November)/ Foreign Bond Investment (December/28)/ Foreign Bond Investment (January/04)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (December/28)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (January/04)

·       Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (November)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (December)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (December)/ Car Sales (December)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Elon Musk will hold a conversation with Germany’s far-right AfD's leader Alice Weidel on X.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden gives a speech at the University of Edinburgh.

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Brandenburg CPI (December)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (December)/ Saxony CPI (December)

·       Romania Balance of Trade (November)/ PPI (November)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Euro Area Retail Sales (November)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (November)

·       Ireland Industrial Production (November)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/03)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani visits Iran for bilateral talks.

·       Foreign Ministers from US, France, Britain, Germany and Italy meet on Syria in Rome.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visits Chad.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production (November)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (December)

Friday, January 10, 2025

Global

·       The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) update on global temperatures.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro will be sworn into office for a third term. Maduro is widely seen as having stolen the election and has imprisoned thousands of opposition figures since the election in July.

·       President-elect Donald Trump is scheduled to be sentenced over cover-up of hush-money paid to adult film actress Stormy Daniels.

·       The US Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in the challenge to the federal ban on TikTok.

·       First launch of Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket.

·       The Detroit Auto Show begins and runs through January 20.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (December)/ Car Production (December)/ New Car Registrations (December)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (November)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (December)/ Employment Change (December)/ Participation Rate (December)/ Building Permits (November)

·       USA Non-Farm/ Government/ Manufacturing Payrolls (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Participation Rate (December)/ Average Hourly Earnings/ U-6 Unemployment Rate/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (January) / Michigan Current Conditions (January) / Michigan Consumer & Inflation Expectations (January) / WASDE Report/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (January/10)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Household Spending (November)/ Coincident Index (November)/ Leading Economic Index (November)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (October)

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (November)

·       Malaysia Unemployment Rate (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ Consumer Confidence (December)

·       India Industrial Production (November)/ Manufacturing Production (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/03)

·       Kazakhstan PPI (December)

·       China New Yuan Loans (December)/ M2 Money Supply (December)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (December)/ Total Social Financing (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       First flight by Pakistan national carrier departs for EU after four-year ban.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Netherlands Manufacturing Production (November)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Final Q3/ Retail Sales (November)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ Participation Rate (November)

·       France Industrial Production (November)/ Household Consumption (November)

·       Spain Industrial Production (November)

·       Italy Retail Sales (November)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (November)

·       Greece Industrial Production (November)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (December)

·       Germany Current Account (November)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (November)

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Ethiopia Stock Exchange launches operations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (December)

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (December)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (December)

Saturday, January 11, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Kosrae Constitution Day, commemorating when the island nation instituted its constitution.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The German Social Democratic Party (SPD) congress to officially sign off on their candidate for chancellor ahead of the election.

·       The German  Far-right AfD party holds their party congress on their election program.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, January 12, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Peru Balance of Trade (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (December)/ PPI (December)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Croatia holds its presidential runoff election. Incumbent President Zoran Milanović is due to face rival Dragan Primorac.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Comoros holds legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Inflation Rate (December)/ Wholesale Prices (December)

The Global Week Ahead

Peace on Earth and Goodwill to All Men – The World Goes (Mostly) Quiet for Christmas Week

December 22 - 29, 2024

It is shaping up to be a very quiet week around the world.  Hopefully, most of the world—or at least a good portion of the world—will enjoy a period of peace, with Christmas being celebrated on Wednesday and Hanukkah also beginning on Wednesday. 

We are watching three political events this week:  The first in Washington, D.C., the second in South Korea, and the third in Georgia.  In Washington on Monday, President Biden is expected to announce his decision to either approve or block Nippon Steel's acquisition bid for U.S. Steel.  During the presidential campaign when he was still a candidate, Biden vowed to block the deal to win the support of the United Steelworkers Union, whose leadership strongly opposes the deal (while most of its rank-and-file members support the deal).  Reports indicate the Defense Department, Treasury Department, and State Department support the deal – but the very few indications that have come from the White House suggest Biden will abide by his vow to the union and block the deal, which, strangely, will probably end up hurting the overall steel industry in the U.S. and likely severely hurt relations with Japan (not to mention put a chilling effect on foreign investment in the US).

The second event we are watching this week is in Seoul, South Korea.  The South Korean Corruption Investigation Office for High-Ranking Officials is expected to summon recently impeached President Yoon for testimony.  Whether Yoon shows up is another question, as he has vowed to continue fighting against his recent impeachment and refused to accept any documents or summons from the Court.  But it keeps the country's ongoing democratic crisis alive.

The third event is in Georgia where recently appointed far-right presidential candidate Mikheil Kavelashvili is scheduled to be sworn into office on December 29.   Kavelashvili was appointed by the country's electoral college, which members of his ruling party dominate.  The country's current president, Salome Zurabishvili – pro-EU and opposed to Russia's war on Ukraine – has called Kavelashvili's appointment as president "illegitimate" and said she will not leave office.  Protests are expected across the nation.

This week's global economic radar screen will be almost as quiet as the international political week.  In Asia, the Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of Australia release minutes from their recent interest rate meetings.  In the U.S., the Conference Board releases its Consumer Confidence Index and new residence sales, and we also get the durable goods order report.  In Europe, there really are no major reports out this week.

Below is our weekly report of everything else we are watching around the world this coming week.  We want to wish you a blessed Christmas and a joyful Hannukah.

Sunday, December 22, 2024:

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 26th Harbin Ice and Snow World Festival begins in Harbin, China.  The event spans more than 1 million square meters and features 300,000 cubic meters of ice and snow, drawing tens of thousands of tourists.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico.  It is one of the few meetings Putin has had with any EU leader in the last three years.  The two leaders discussed energy security issues, as Ukraine has pledged to stop the transit of Russian gas through its territory next month.

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to open a number of transport/infrastructure facilities across Russia facilities via video link.  Putin launched auto traffic on highway 289 linking Krasnodar, Slavyansk-on-Kuban and Temryuk and the A290 Novorossiysk-Kerch motorway. Putin also took part in the ceremony of opening international airports in Magadan, Cheboksary, and Stavropol.

·       In Spain, the Loteria de Navidad, aka El Gordo, or the “Fat One”, annual Christmas lotto is held.  It is the world’s biggest lottery, which has no single jackpot but rather a complex share-the-wealth system.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Unity Day in Zimbabwe, marking the day in 1987 when two political parties, ZANU and ZAPU, came together to form ZANU-P.F.

Economic Reports/Events –

Monday, December 23, 2024

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Current Account (November)/ Foreign Direct Investment (November)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (November)/ Economic Activity (October)/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (December)

·       Canada GDP (October)/ Manufacturing Sales (November)/ PPI (November)/ Raw Materials Prices (November)/ BoC Summary of Deliberations

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (November)/ CB Consumer Confidence (December)/ NY Fed Treasury Purchases 0 to 1 yrs

·       Colombia Business Confidence (November)

·       Paraguay GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan’s cabinet is expected to approve a new tax reform plan.  The plan is aimed at funding a scheduled defense budget hike via corporate and tobacco levies starting in 2026.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (November)

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (November)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

·       China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Albania, opposition parties are expected to block roads across the country, demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Edi Rama.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Import Prices (November)

·       Great Britain Current Account Q3/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Business Investment Q3

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Final (October)/ Current Account Q3

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (November)/ M3 Money Supply (November)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (December)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (October)/ Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (November)

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (November)/ M2 Money Supply (November)/ Total Credit Growth (November)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mozambique’s Constitutional Court will deliver a final verdict on the outcome of the country’s October 9 general elections.  The losing opposition party of Venancio Mondlane says the election was rigged.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, December 24, 2024

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Biden is expected to decide on a recommendation by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) on Nippon Steel’s bid to acquire U.S. Steel.  During the campaign season, Biden told the United Steelworkers Union – who adamantly oppose the deal – “he had their back” and would block the deal.  However, there are no apparent national security concerns to the deal, putting Biden in a tough position to come up with a valid reason to block the deal.  Nevertheless, it is widely believed Biden will block the deal.

·       NASA’s Parker Space Probe will come closer to the sun’s surface than any other flight ever before – 3.8 million miles away from the surface of the sun.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chile PPI (November)

·       USA Durable Goods Orders (November)/ Redbook (December/21)/ New Home Sales (November)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing/ Manufacturing Shipments/ Services Revenues Index (December)/ Money Supply (November)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (December/20)/ Building Permits Final (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Australia RBA Meeting Minutes

·       Malaysia PPI (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Moldova holds the inauguration of President-elect Maia Sandu.  Sandu won by a narrow margin despite Russian meddling in the election.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Netherlands GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Current Account Q3

·       Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Libya Independence Day, marking the day in 1952 when the country gained its independence from the UK and France.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Israel Composite Economic Index (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, December 25, 2024

Global

·       Today is Christmas Day. Markets in Europe, North and South America, South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Indonesia, India, and Australia will be closed.  Markets will be open in Japan, mainland China, Taiwan and Thailand.

·       Today is the first day of Hannukah.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya will meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing. The two diplomats are expected to explore ways to stabilize relations amid heightened tensions between the two countries.

·       South Korea’s Corruption Investigation Office for High-Ranking Officials is expected to summon recently impeached President Yoon for testimony.

·       Today is Quaid-E-Azam Day in Pakistan, celebrating the birthday of Muhammad Ali Jinnah’s. He is widely seen as the founder of the country. It is a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Governor Kauo Ueda will speak at a meeting of Councilors of Keidanren (Japan Business Federation) in Tokyo.

·      Japan Coincident Index Final (October)/ Leading Economic Index Final (October)/ Foreign Bond Investment (December/21)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (December/21)

·      India M3 Money Supply (December/13)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Supreme Eurasian Economic Council (EAEU) meets in St. Petersburg, Russia.  The meeting will be chaired by Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.  The Council brings together the prime ministers of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia to discuss how to further economic integration and will focus on energy and industrial cooperation and the development of e-commerce.

·       King Charles delivers the annual Christmas message.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, December 26, 2024 

Global

·         Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        USA Initial Jobless Claims (December/21)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (December/20)/ Fed Balance Sheet (December/25)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/25)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (October)

·       Colombia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Former Taiwanese President Ma is expected to visit with students in Harbin and Sichuan, China.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Housing Starts (November)/ Construction Orders (November)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (November)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Slovenia Independence Day, celebrating the day in 1990 when an independence referendum was held separating the country from Yugoslavia.

·       Today is Boxing Day.  The London Stock Exchange is closed as will markets in Hong Kong, Indonesia, and Australia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Spain PPI (November)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (December)

·       France Unemployment Benefit Claims (November)/ Jobseekers Total (November)

·       Turkey Overnight Borrowing & Lending Rate (December)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/20)

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (November)

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, December 27, 2024

Global

·         Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Brazil IGP-M Inflation (December)/ Bank Lending (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (December)/ Net Payrolls (November)

·       USA Goods Trade Balance (November)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (November)/ Wholesale Inventories (November)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (October)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (December/20)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (December/27)

·       Paraguay Current Account Q3

·       Costa Rica Current Account Q3/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Panama Current Account Q3

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The South Korean Constitutional Court will hold the first public hearing on President Yoon’s impeachment.  Yoon was impeached by the South Korean parliament on December 14.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        South Korea Business Confidence (December)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (November)/ Jobs/applications ratio (November)/ Tokyo CPI (December)/ BoJ Summary of Opinions/ Retail Sales (November)/ Industrial Production (November)

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (November)/ Current Account Final Q3

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (November)/ Current Account (November)/ Private Consumption & Investment (November)/ Retail Sales (October)

·       Singapore Import/ Export Prices (November)/ PPI (November)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/20)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Chaos Computer Club Congress begins in Hamburg, Germany.  It is the largest gathering of hackers in Europe.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Spain Retail Sales (November)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (November)

·       Russia Unemployment Rate (November)/ Business Confidence (December)/ Real Wage Growth (October)/ Retail Sales (November)/ GDP (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (December)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (November)

Saturday, December 28, 2024

Global

·        Today is the Feast of the Holy Innocents.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 29, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Mongolia Independence Day, celebrating when the country gained its freedom in 1911 from the Qing China dynasty.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Croatia holds the first round of its presidential elections.

·       Georgia will hold its presidential inauguration. Tensions remain high in the country, and mass protests are likely to be held in opposition to the swearing-in of Mikheil Kavelashvili.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·         Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (November)/ Private Bank Lending (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Chad holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

European Leaders Meet on Ukraine, Russia Lost Syria And May Also Lose in Africa, Germany Holds A No-Confidence Vote to Trigger Federal Elections, and the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan Each Meet on Interest Rates

December 15 - 22, 2024

While most of us look forward to the peace and joy (and quiet) of the holidays and New Year, the coming week will be busy on several fronts. European leaders will gather in Brussels this week to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to discuss Russia's war on Ukraine and the unfolding events in Syria. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will join the EU leaders. Russia has ramped up its drone attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets and has begun deploying North Korean troops against Ukrainian forces, and Ukraine needs more military aid.  

Syria continues to be something of a question mark for Western leaders as Syrian rebels move to establish a new government following their shock defeat of Bashir al-Assad's regime. How the rebel coalition will rule and the true intentions of the more radical Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) leadership – which at one point was allied with Al Queda – remain somewhat unclear.

But as the West works to develop relations with the rebels, another unexpected outcomofAssad'ssss overthrow has emerged: It appears Russian military forces, responding to demands from the Syrian rebels, are packing up and leaving some of their bases in Syria -  but not all of them followingAssad'ssss defeat and fleeing to Moscow. As if Assad's defeat was not enough of a blow to Russian foreign policy, it turns out it is now seriously complicating Russia's aggressive and malignant African policy: Russia's airbases in Syria serve as major military supply transshipment centers foRussia's’s military support of Mali, Burkina, Faso, and Niger – all critical mineral-rich countries which experienced coups in the last year (all assisted by Russia), resulting in all three countries cutting ties with the West and allying themselves with MoscoRussia'ssss operational strategy with these countries is now at risk of collapsing.

As European leaders meet, Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold his annual press conference. This elaborately stage-managed event goes on for hours as Putin takes questions from Russians calling into the event. While all the questions are obviously scripted, the event usually reveals something new about Russia's thinking and intentions toward the rest of the world, and it is always worth paying attention to.   

Germany becomes the latest European country to move to snap elections this week, with a no-confidence vote scheduled for Monday. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz saw the collapse of his multi-party coalition last month, pushing him into running a minority government and pressuring him into calling the no-confidence vote.  

According to the most recent polls, the Christian Democratic Party/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) leads with 32 percent, with the far-right AfD in second place with 18 percenScholz'ssss Social Democrats (SPD) are in third place with 15 percent. 

The ultimate winner will likely be the CDU/CSU allying with the Green Party (12.6 percent) and pro-business, laissez-faire Free Democrat Party (FDP). Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, it is all about three big central bank meetings: the Federal Reserve Board, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England. The Fed meeting is being closely watched to gauge how much they intend to cut in 2025 and their assessment of inflation (which reports this past week suggest may be creeping back up). Markets are expecting a 25-basis point cut this week.

The Bank of Japan meeting is proving more uncertain for markets. Will the BoJ hold or raise rates another 25 basis points? Will the Bank of England keep rates at 4.75% or cut them? Market consensus suggests they will hold. We also note that European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give remarks on Monday that might offer further insights into the state of the European and global economies.

Regarding major economic data reports, markets are watching US retail sales and industrial production reports on Tuesday and PCE data on Friday. In Europe, the focus will be on UK labor market figures on Tuesday and inflation on Wednesday (right before the BoE meeting). Germany, battered of late by a regular stream of discouraging economic assessments, releases the ZEW Surveys on Tuesday along with the Ifo report and then consumer confidence on Thursday and PPI on Friday.  

Turning to Asia, China releases new home prices on Monday and its loan prime rate on Friday, while in Japan, trade balance data comes out on Wednesday, and the November CPI is out on Friday.

Below is our weekly report of everything else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, December 15, 2024

Global

·       The UN Internet Governance Forum begins in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and goes through December 19.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 3rd China Indian Ocean Region Forum on Blue Economy Development Cooperation meets in Kunming, China.  clean energy, climate change response, and disaster reduction are on the agenda, among other topics,

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing, Composite & Services PMI Flash (December)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing, Composite & Services PMI Flash (December)/ Tertiary Industry Index (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.K. officially joins the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) as the 12th member of the Asia-Pacific trade bloc. The general agreement removes trade tariffs between member countries and sets rules on matters such as cross-border investment, e-commerce, intellectual property, and labor. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI Flash (December)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing, Composite & Services PMI Flash (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Jordanian King Abdullah meets with the Saudi Arabian Defense Minister, Prince Khalid bin Salman bin Abdulaziz, to discuss the situation in Syria and Iran.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (November)/ M1 Money Supply (November)

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (November)/ Wholesale Prices (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi is due to meet with his Rwandan counterpart Paul Kagame in Angola's capital of Luanda to discuss the ongoing conflict in eastern Congo.

·       Leaders from the West African bloc Ecowas will meet for an annual summit in Abuja, Nigeria. They are expected to discuss the departure of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso from the bloc after a 12-month notice period.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Monday, December 16, 2024

Global

·       The UN 2024 meeting of the States Parties to the Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production, and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on Their Destruction in Geneva, Switzerland.

·       The UN Economic Commission for Africa will hold an expert group meeting to consult on Africa’s critical minerals.

·       The UN Security Council meets to discuss the situation in Libya.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem gives his annual address on the state of the economy and monetary policy at the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade in Vancouver, Canada

·       Canada Housing Starts (November)

·       USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (December)/ S&P Global Composite, Manufacturing, & Services PMI Flash (December)/ NOPA Crush Report

·       Colombia Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)

·       Argentina GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (October)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Thailand’s Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra visits Malaysia for talks with counterpart Anwar Ibrahim. Security, economic ties, and regional cooperation will be on their agenda.

·       Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, who took office in September, makes his first overseas visit to India, which analysts see as competing with China for influence in the Indian Ocean. Dissanayake will hold talks with the top Indian leadership, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Colombo's debt crisis is expected to be among the key topics of discussion. 

·       India’s Upper House will hold a Constitution debate. Parliamentary members want to debate the essence of ten keywords from the Preamble of the Constitution, speaking on themes like equality, justice, sovereignty, independence, democracy, and socialism.

·       Today is Independence Day in Kazakhstan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        New Zealand Services & Composite NZ PCI (November)

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing, Composite & Services PMI Flash (December)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing, Composite & Services PMI Flash (December)/ Machinery Orders (October)/ Tertiary Industry Index (October)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (November)

·       China House Price Index (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ NBS Press Conference

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       India HSBC Composite, Manufacturing, & Services PMI Flash (December)/ WPI Food Index (November)/ WPI Fuel (November)/ WPI Inflation (November)/ WPI Manufacturing (November)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (November)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Philippines Business Confidence Q4/ Cash Remittances (October)

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production (November)

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

·       Sri Lanka Services PMI (November)/ Manufacturing PMI (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The German Parliament (Bundestag) will hold a vote of confidence on the current government, setting up an early federal election in February.  The current coalition essentially collapsed last month, creating a minority government.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  EU foreign affairs ministers will discuss the situation in Ukraine, Georgia, the Middle East, and Belarus.

·       The EU’s 17th Accession Conference with Montenegro will be held in Brussels.

·       The EU Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council (Energy) will meet in Brussels. Following the presentation of a report on the future of geothermal energy (by Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency), energy ministers will be invited to approve conclusions on the promotion of geothermal energy.  Ministers will also discuss an EU grid action plan.

·       The Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) Leaders’ Summit takes place in Tallinn, Estonia, through December 18.  Hosted by Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal, it brings together the leaders of ten nations – Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom – to discuss cooperation within the JEF framework and set new plans for adapting JEF activities to the evolving security landscape. The Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) is a coalition of ten like-minded nations with high readiness forces configured to respond rapidly to crises. The JEF can integrate into larger international operations, such as those led by NATO or other security coalitions, and can conduct the full spectrum of operations. It enhances the deterrence messaging of NATO and provides agile, credible, and capable forces supporting JEF Participant Nations interests.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will meet with Montenegro Prime Minister Milojko Spajić at NATO Headquarters in Brussels to discuss security issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will hold a short press conference with Gediminas Šimkus, Chairman of the Board of the Bank of Lithuania, in Vilnius, Lithuania.  She will then give a keynote speech at the Annual Economics Conference: Pillars of Resilience Amid Global Geopolitical Shifts at the Palace of the Grand Dukes in Vilnius.  She will then participate on a high-level panel at the conference.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos will give remarks at the 8th anniversary of Madrid Foro Empresarial in Madrid, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will give a keynote speech at the CEPR Paris Symposium organized by Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), Banque de France and Sciences Po in Paris, France.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Payments Victoria Cleland gives a speech on “The Future Roadmap of Bank of England’s RTGS Service” at the Fintech Connect Conference in London.

·      Ireland Consumer Confidence (December)/ Balance of Trade (October)

·      Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (November)

·      France HCOB Composite, Manufacturing, & Services PMI Flash (December)

·      Germany HCOB Composite, Manufacturing, & Services PMI Flash (December)

·      Euro Area HCOB Composite, Manufacturing, & Services PMI Flash (December)/ Labour Cost Index Q3/ Wage Growth Q3

·      Great Britain S&P Global Composite, Manufacturing, & Services PMI Flash (December)

·      Italy Inflation Rate (November)

·      Serbia Building Permits (October)

·      Belarus Industrial Production (November)

·      Poland Core Inflation Rate (November)

·      Slovakia Current Account (October)

·      Turkey Budget Balance (November)

·      Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q3

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the Day of Reconciliation in South Africa.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Wholesale Prices (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)/ M3 Money Supply (November)

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)

Tuesday, December 17, 2024

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In the United States, electoral college electors meet in their states to vote for the new president and vice-president on separate ballots and confirm the results of the November 5 election, in which former president Donald Trump won a second term.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

·       Mexico Private Spending Q3/ Retail Sales (October)

·       Canada Inflation Rate (November)/ New Housing Price Index (November)/ CPI Median (November)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (October)/ Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians (October)

·       USA Retail Sales (November)/ Redbook (December/14)/ Capacity Utilization (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Manufacturing Production (November)/ Business Inventories (October)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (December)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (December/13)/ International Monetary Market (IMM) Date

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Shanghai’s Vice Mayor, Hua Yuan, will attend an intercity forum in Taipei.  The highly controversial visit comes as China-Taiwan relations are in a highly tense state. Taiwan's Beijing-friendly former president, Ma Ying-jeou, is then scheduled to make his second trip to China this year on Wednesday, leading a group of students on a nine-day trip.

·       The Asia Development Bank-KDI Global Forum on Global Supply Chain and Sustainable Development in Asia and the Pacific is held in Tokyo, Japan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Singapore Balance of Trade (November)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Sri Lanka GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (December/17)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen travels to Turkey to meet with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to discuss the situation in Syria.

·        EP President Metsola will award the 2024 Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought to María Corina Machado, the leader of Venezuela’s democratic forces, and Edmundo González Urrutia, the President-elect of Venezuela. A press conference with EP President Metsola and the laureates will occur after the ceremony.

·       The EU Environmental Council meets in Brussels. The ministers will discuss plastic pellet losses, end-of-life vehicles, and 2040 climate targets.

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss the European Council meeting that is taking place on December 19, the legislative overview for 2025, EU enlargement, and the future of Europe.

·       The EU’s 3rd Accession Conference with Albania takes place in Brussels.

·       Germany’s Green Party presents a draft of their electoral program.

·       Germany’s Federal Constitutional Court will hear an oral hearing on the use of Ramstein for US drone missions in Yemen.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will give an introductory statement at the ECB Banking Supervision press conference on the aggregate results of the 2024 Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP) in Frankfurt, Germany.  ECB Board Member Frank Elderson will then participate at the EDB Banking Supervision press conference on the aggregate results of the SREP.

·      Great Britain Unemployment Rate (October)/ Employment Change (October)/ Claimant Count Change (November)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (November)

·      Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts

·      Germany Ifo Business Climate (December)/ Ifo Current Conditions (December)/ Ifo Expectations (December)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (December)/ ZEW Current Conditions (December)

·      Italy Balance of Trade (October)

·      Euro Area Balance of Trade (October)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (December)

·      Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (December)/ Inflation Report/ Interest Rate Decision

·      Belarus GDP (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Current Account Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (October)

Wednesday, December 18, 2024

Global

·       The inaugural UN Framework Convention on Climate Change will meet to discuss the formation of the Southern Africa Alliance on Carbon Markets and Climate Finance in Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Mexico Aggregate Demand Q3

·       US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee meets on Interest Rates/Fed Chair Powell press conference/USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (December/13)/ MBA Purchase Index (December/13)/ Building Permits Prel (November)/ Current Account Q3/ Housing Starts (November)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (December/13)

·       Colombia Imports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ ISE Economic Activity (October)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (November)/ Unemployment Rate Q3/ Leading Indicator (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese President Xi Jinping will travel to Macau to celebrate the 25th anniversary of the city’s return from Portuguese to Chinese control.  The Chinese president would inaugurate Macau’s new administration, led by Sam Hou-fai, on Friday and inspect the city during his three-day trip.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        New Zealand Current Account Q3

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (December)/ Westpac Leading Index (November)

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Thailand Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (November)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU-Western Balkans Summit will take place in Brussels.  An agenda has not been published yet.

Economic Reports/Events –

·      European Central Bank Board Member Philip Lane will participate in a fireside chat at MNI Connect event (Virtual).

·      Great Britain Inflation Rate (November)/ PPI Output (November)/ PPI Input (November)/ Retail Price Index (November)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (December)

·      Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (November)

·      Euro Area Inflation Rate (November)/ Construction Output (October)/ CPI Final (November)

·      Ireland Residential Property Prices (October)

·      Russia PPI (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is National Day in Qatar, a holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (October)/ Inflation Rate (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Today is Republic Day in Niger, a holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, December 19, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council meets to discuss the situation in Syria.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Alphabet and Google CEO Sundar Pichai will travel to Mar-A-Lago, Florida to meet with President-elect Donald Trump.   Trump and Pichai are expected to talk about a wide-range of issues, but Pichai indicated in a recent interview AI will likely be the dominant issue of discussion.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Average Weekly Earnings (October)

·       USA GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q3/ GDP Price Index QoQ Final Q3/ Initial Jobless Claims (December/14)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (December)/ Real Consumer Spending QoQ Final Q3/ Existing Home Sales (November)/ CB Leading Index (November)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (December/13)/ Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Index (December)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/18)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (October)/ Foreign Bond Investment (October)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (October)/ Fed Balance Sheet (December/18)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (December)

·       El Salvador Current Account Q3/ Balance of Trade (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Mexico Interest Rate Decision

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnam hosts a massive defense expo to diversify supplies after decades of relying on the old Soviet bloc. Weapons manufacturers from the U.S., Israel and 25 other countries will be among 200 registrants displaying combat facilities and gear for naval, army, air force and cyber functions.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand GDP Growth Rate Q3/ ANZ Business Confidence (December)

·       Bank of Japan meets to discuss interest rates/Japan Foreign Bond Investment (December/14)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (December/14)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (December)

·       Philippines Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Interest Rate Decision

·       Thailand New Car Sales (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold his annual news conference.  The event, which usually goes on for hours, features Putin taking direct – but prepared/planted – questions from Russian citizens. 

·       The European Council meets in Brussels.  EU leaders will discuss the situation in Ukraine and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will speak in person to the leaders.   UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will also attend.  The leaders will also discuss the situation in the Middle East and then hold a strategic discussion on how the EU can “consolidate its role on the international state and defend [its] interests and promote [its] positions.”

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte travels to Bulgaria to visit the multinational battle group at the Novo Selo training ground and meets Bulgarian Defense Minister Atanas Zapryanov.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Bank of England Interest Rate Decision/ BoE MPC Vote Cut/ Hike/ Unchanged/ MPC Meeting Minutes

·       Netherlands Unemployment Rate (November)

·       European Union New Car Registrations (November)

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence JAN

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (November)

·       France Business Confidence (December)/ Business Climate Indicator (December)

·       Euro Area Current Account (October)

·       Italy Construction Output (October)/ Current Account (October)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (November)/ Employment Growth (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ PPI (November)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (October)/ Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/13)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (November)

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Friday, December 20, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (December)/ Federal Tax Revenues (November)

·       Canada Retail Sales (October)/ Budget Balance (October)

·       USA PCE Price Index (November)/ Personal Income (November)/ Personal Spending (November)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (December)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (December/20)

·       Paraguay PPI (November)

·       Colombia Interest Rate Decision

·       Argentina Current Account Q3/ Economic Activity (October)

·       Chile Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       ASEAN Ministers meet in Thailand for talks about the civil war in Myanmar and ways to resolve a nearly four-year-old conflict that has engulfed much of the country.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (December)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Credit Card Spending (November)

·       South Korea PPI (November)

·       Japan Inflation Rate (November)/ Core Inflation Rate (November)

·       Australia Housing Credit (November)/ Private Sector Credit (November)

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (December)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (November)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (November)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (November)

·       Hong Kong Current Account Q3/ Inflation Rate (November)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/13)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Great Britain Car Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing (November)/ CBI Distributive Trades (December)

·       Netherlands Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Germany PPI (November)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (December)/ Central Government Debt (November)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (October)

·       France PPI (November)

·       Switzerland Current Account Q3

·       Greece Current Account (October)

·       Italy Business Confidence (December)/ Consumer Confidence (December)/ Industrial Sales (October)/ PPI (November)

·       Poland Retail Sales (November)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (December)/ PPI (November)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ Consumer Confidence Q4

·       Serbia Current Account (October)

·       Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash (December)

·       Slovakia Unemployment Rate (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (November)/ Total Credit Growth (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana PPI (November)

Saturday, December 21, 2024 

Global

·       The Winter Solstice, the shortest day of the year in the Northern Hemisphere, occurs.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo will host EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy Kaja Kallas, Italian premier Giorgia Meloni, Greece’s PM Kyriákos Mitsotákis and his Swedish counterpart Ulf Kristersson for the North-South Summit, a two-day security gathering in Saariselkä.

·       Romania’s Parliament convenes for the first time since the recent elections, which were nullified by the Romanian High Court.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Sāo Tomé Day, marking the day when the first Europeans arrived in 1471.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 22, 2024

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Spain, the Loteria de Navidad, aka El Gordo, or the “Fat One”, annual Christmas lotto is held.  It is the world’s biggest lottery, with no single jackpot but rather a complex share-the-wealth system.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Unity Day in Zimbabwe, marking the day in 1987 when two political parties, ZANU and ZAPU, came together to form ZANU-P.F.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Syria’s Simmering Civil War Explodes Again, France’s Government on Brink of Crisis, OPIC+ Meets to Possibly Approve Production Increases, Key International Chairs Change Hands, And A Big Week of Economic Data Releases

December 1 - 8, 2024

We are four weeks away from 2025, but 2024 is going out with a bang. In Syria, where the civil war had been at a relatively low boil this past year, all hell broke out when rebels (mostly aligned with radical Islamist groups) launched a massive surprise attack on the city of Aleppo, the most populous governate and city in Syria. They captured it with relative ease and continued to press their attacks south toward the city of Hama, hammering Syrian Army forces (who are supported by the Russian Air Force and elements of the Russian Army).

The reignited conflict brings a new element of uncertainty and risk to the Middle East and is seen as a significant blow to Russia and Iran, both of whom have been propping up and helping to defend the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (who was in Moscow when the offensive began and had to rush back to Damascus to deal with it).

Meanwhile, in France, far-right leader Marine Le Pen gave French Prime Minister Michel Barnier until Monday to come up with more concessions (Barnier had already acceded to earlier Le Pen demands to drop planned tax increases) in the hotly debated 2025 budget or face a no-confidence vote in parliament which would throw the government into crisis. Markets have been selling off in the face of what is likely to be a wild week politically in Paris.

Also, in Europe this week, NATO member foreign ministers will meet in Brussels for an important discussion on how to further aid Ukraine. The meeting comes after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky suggested in a media interview this past week that an offer of NATO membership for territory currently under Ukraine’s control could end “the hot stage of the war.”  

Also this week, new leadership comes (or is about to come) to three important international seats:

• The US will take the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of December.

• South Africa officially takes the presidency of the G20 from Brazil for 2025.

• Poland begins laying the groundwork for its upcoming role as President of the European Union on January 1 and will continue until June 2025.

We would also note that OPEC+ meets this week to discuss possibly increasing production output—a highly contentious issue among the oil-producing states. The meeting was originally scheduled for December 1, but behind-the-scenes disagreements forced it to be postponed until December 5.

Looking at the economic radar screen this week, markets are watching the US jobs report released this Friday. Wall Street consensus estimates are roughly in the 200,000-plus range. Also, this week, the ISM Indices – manufacturing and services, on Monday and Wednesday, respectively.  And the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book are out on Friday.

In Europe, Germany—which continues to struggle economically—will release important factory order data, industrial production figures, and its trade balance. These releases come as Volkswagen workers begin to go on strike over upcoming layoffs and plant closures. 

In Asia, Japan releases both wage and consumption activity reports on Friday, while China releases its November PMIs and the Caixin indices.  

To top it all off, Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give much-watched speeches on their views of the global economy on Wednesday. 

Below are all the other major geopolitical and market events we are watching in the coming week:

Sunday, December 1, 2024

Global

·       South Africa takes the presidency of the G20 Presidency.  South African President Cyril Ramaphosa will bring the media on Monday, December 2, on the South African agenda for the year.

·       The U.S. assumes the Chair of the UN Security Council for the month of December.

·       COP16 of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification begins in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and goes through December 13.

·       Today is the first day of Advent.

·       Today is the first day of the meteorological winter int the Northern Hemisphere.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Joe Biden departs for a trip to Angola.  The purpose of the meeting is to improve US-African relations but also highlight a U.S. backed railway project.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwan’s President Willam Lai continues a tour of the Marshall Islands, Palau, and Tuvalu – all of whom have diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

·       Today is Kazakhstan’s First President’s Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Australia Commodity Prices (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Romania holds parliamentary elections.

·       Liechtenstein holds a referendum regarding a package of measures proposed by the Liechtenstein Employee Pension Foundation (SPL), directed at a state pension fund. 

·       Ursala von der Leyen formally begins her second term as European Commission President.

·       Today is Portugal Independence Day, a national holiday.

·       Today is Romania Independence Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) leaders will meet in Kuwait to discuss regional issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Freedom and Democracy Day in Chad, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, December 2, 2024

Global

·        The UN Security Council meets on the situation of children in Haiti.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly meets Baltic counterparts in Riga, Latvia.

·       Germany’s former Chancellor Angela Merkel presents her memoir 'Freedom' in a joint appearance with former President Barack Obama in Washington, D.C.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams will participate in a conversation organized by the Queens Chamber of Commerce.

·       Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)/ Business Confidence (November)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (October)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (November)/Fed Balance Sheet (November/27)

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       East Timor's Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao makes an official visit to Malaysia for talks with Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. The trip comes as the small country of about 1.3 million people prepares to join the Association of Southeast Asian Nations as its 11th member state. Malaysia chairs the bloc next year.

·       Nepali Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli visits China, casting off a tradition in which the Himalayan nation's leaders make India their first foreign trip after taking office. Oli is expected to request a waiver on a $216 million Chinese loan used to build the country's third international airport. The airport has not drawn any international flights since its opening last year.

·       The trial begins of Malaysian ex-prime minister Najib Razak on charges of taking bribes, money laundering linked to 1MDB scandal.

·       Today is Saba Day in Saba, celebrating the independence of the small island in the Netherlands Antilles.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Building Permits (October)

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (November)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (November)/ Building Permits (October)/ Company Gross Profits Q3/ Retail Sales (October)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (November)/ Business Inventories Q3/ Private House Approvals (October)/ RBA Jacobs Speech/ Commodity Prices (November)

·       Japan Capital Spending Q3/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (November)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ Tourist Arrivals (October)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Business Confidence (November)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (November)

·       Kazakhstan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ Wholesale Prices (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       French Prime Minister Michel Barnier faces a deadline set by French opposition leader Marine Le Pen to offer new, farther reaching budget concessions or face a no-confidence vote which could topple the government.

·       German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock visits China through December. On Sunday, before departing for Beijing, Baerbock strongly criticized China for supporting Russia in its war on Ukraine.

·       German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius visits Norway for talks with Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram.

·       Romania’s top court is expected to rule on whether to annul the first round of presidential elections (the second round is scheduled for December 8).   The challenge to the results were brought after allegations of external interference in the elections by Russia.

·       Germany’s IG Metall union calls for possible warning strikes in Volkswagen factories across the country.

·       UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will give his annual foreign policy speech at the Lord Mayor’s Banquet in the City of London.  Earlier in the day, Starmer hosts Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis for bilateral talks.

·       The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Employment and Social Policy) meets in Brussels through December 3.  Ministers will discuss EU demographic challenges, labor and skills shortages in the EU, and the traineeships directive.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in an EIB Group Climate and Environment Advisory Council in Luxembourg.

·       Bank of England Director of Financial Stability Strategy and Risk Lee Foulger gives a speech at  the Bloomberg UK Policy Series in London.

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Average Weekly Earnings Q3

·       Netherlands Retail Sales (October)/ NEVI Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (November)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (November)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Final (September)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (October)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)/ New Car Sales (November)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Unemployment Rate (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ New Car Registrations (November)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)/ New Car Registrations (November)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)/ ECB President Lagarde Speech/ Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Serbia GDP Growth Rate Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will give testimony at his ongoing corruption trial.  He is the first sitting Israeli prime minister to testify in a public corruption trial.

·       Today is UAE National Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The SenHabitat 2024 begins in Dakar, Senegal bringing together investors and government officials focused on real estate, housing, and construction

·       Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (November)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (November)

Tuesday, December 3, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler gives a speech on the Labor Market and Monetary Policy at the Detroit Economic Club in Detroit, Michigan.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee to give closing remarks before hybrid Midwest Agriculture Conference entitled "The Changing Landscape for Agricultural Inputs."

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (October)/ Gross Fixed Investment (September)

·       USA Redbook (November)/30/ JOLTs Job Openings (October)/ JOLTs Job Quits (October)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (December)/API Crude Oil Stock Change (November/29)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (November)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       US Space Force opens a unit at Yokota Air Base in Japan.

·       The 20th Tokyo-Beijing Forum takes place in Tokyo.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Import Prices Q3/ Export Prices Q3/ Terms of Trade Q3/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (December/03)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (November)

·       Australia Current Account Q3/ Net Exports Contribution to GDP Q3

·       Hong Kong: The British Chamber of Commerce in China will release its annual business sentiment survey, followed by the German chamber's confidence survey. 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO holds a two-day foreign ministers meeting in Brussels to discuss the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East.  NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will also receive His Majesty King Abdullah II ibn Al Hussein of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.

·       The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Health) meets in Brussels.  Ministers will adopt a recommendation on smoke- and aerosol-free environments, focusing on key outdoor areas like playgrounds and restaurant terraces, as well as emerging tobacco and related products such as e-cigarettes, heated tobacco products and heated herbal products.  The Council will also discuss the state of play of the revision of pharmaceutical legislation in the EU, focusing on regulatory incentives. The package aims to improve security of supply of medicines and prevent shortages.

·       The Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani ,begins a two-day state visit, accompanied by his first wife, Sheikha Jawaher bint Hamad bin Suhaim Al Thani.  King Charles and Queen Camilla will host the visitors at Buckingham Palace, and Starmer will meet the Emir for bilateral talks in Downing Street.

·       FT Global Banking Summit opens in London. Speakers across the two-day event include Barclays chief executive CS Venkatakrishnan and Deutsche Bank chief executive Christian Sewing.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a pre-recorded conversation with Daniele Manca at GeoEconomy Talk organized by RCS Academy, the Business School of RCS MediaGroup, in collaboration with Il Corriere della Sera in Milan, Italy.

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (November)

·       Romania PPI (October)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (November)/ PPI (November)

·       Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (November)

·       France Budget Balance (October)

·       Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech

·       Slovakia Real Wages Q3

·       Spain Unemployment Change (November)/ Tourist Arrivals (October)

·       Ireland Construction Output Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (November)

·       Qatar Financial Centre PMI (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (November)

·       South Africa GDP Growth Rate Q3

Wednesday, December 4, 2024

Global

·       The UN General Assembly meets on the situation in Gaza. 

·       The OECD releases its Economic Outlook.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell participates in a moderated discussion at the New York Times DealBook Summit in New York.

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem to speak before the Bloomberg/Global Interdependence Center College of Central Bankers Symposium.

·       Brazil Industrial Production (October)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (November)

·       USA Fed Beige Book/MBA Mortgage Market Index (November/29)/ ADP Employment Change (November)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (November)/ ISM Services PMI (November)/ ISM Services Business/ Employment/ New Orders/ Prices Activity (November)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (November/29)

·       Canada Labor Productivity Q3/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (November)

·       Colombia Exports (October)/ PPI (November)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Australia Ai Group Industry & Construction & Manufacturing Index (November)/ Judo Bank Services PMI Final (November)/ Judo Bank Composite PMI Final (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q3/ GDP Chain Price Index Q3/ GDP Final Consumption Q3

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (November)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Services & Composite PMI Final (November)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (November)

·       China Caixin Services & Composite PMI (November)

·       India HSBC Services & Composite PMI Final (November)

·       Kazakhstan S&P Global Services PMI (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK City minister and Economic Secretary to the Treasury Tulip Siddiq and Chinese ambassador to the UK Zeguang Zheng speak at the OMFIF China-UK Investor forum in London.

·       The European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee will hear from Christine Lagarde, first in her capacity as President of the European Central Bank and then as Chair of the European Systemic Risk Board. Economic governance, geo-political risks, and the cost of living are all expected to feature prominently in the discussions. The hearings will be followed by another debate with Dominique Laboureix, Chair of the Single Resolution Board 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks at the Financial Times Global Boardroom event in London.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a virtual speech followed by a Q&A session at the 7th conference on behavioral financial regulations and policies organized by Herbert Simon Society in Milan, Italy.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Russia S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (November)

·       Spain HCOB Services & Composite PMI (November)

·       Italy HCOB Services & Composite PMI (November)

·       France HCOB Services & Composite PMI (November)

·       Germany HCOB Services & Composite PMI (November)/ New Car Registrations (November)

·       Euro Area HCOB Services & Composite PMI (November)/ PPI (October)

·       UK S&P Global Services & Composite PMI Final (November)

·       Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Prel (November)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (November)

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Africa Investment Forum begins in Rabat, Morocco and runs through Friday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (November)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (November)/ Consumer Confidence Q4

·       Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (November)

·       Ghana S&P Global PMI (November)

·       Nigeria Balance of Trade (July)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Balance of Trade (September)

Thursday, December 5, 2024 

Global

·       Ministers from Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (Opec+) meet in Vienna, Austria.  The meeting was originally scheduled for December 1 but was moved to today. Ministers are going to consider reviving halted production beginning in January.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to speak before in-person Charlotte Regional Business Alliance 2024 Economic Outlook event.

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (November)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Initial Jobless Claims (November)/30/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (November/29)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/04)/ Fed Balance Sheet (December/04)

·       Brazil Car Production (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Ivey PMI s.a (November)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Malaysia Motor Show begins in Kula Lumpur.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Toyoaki Nakamura gives a speech in Hiroshima to local business leaders.

·       South Korea GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (November)/30/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (November)/30/ BOJ Nakamura Speech

·       Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (November)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (October)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council (Transport) meets in Brussels.  Ministers will be asked to approve the Council’s position (‘general approach’) on several legislative files: the directive on driving disqualifications, which forms part of the ‘road safety’ package, the regulation on passenger rights in the context of multimodal journeys and the regulation on enforcement of passenger rights in the EU. The Council will also hold a policy debate on air passenger rights and take note of a progress report on the combined transport directive. 

·       In Lyon, France, the Festival of Lights will be held. Originally aimed at expressing gratitude towards Mary, mother of Jesus, kicks off with hundreds of thousands of spectators expected to attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Executive Director Victoria Cleland gives a speech at the Fintech Connect event in London on ‘The future road map of Bank of England’s real time gross settlement (RTGS) service.’

·       European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner gives a speech at the IIF Colloquium on European Banking Regulation & Supervision in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Germany Factory Orders (October)/ HCOB Construction PMI (November)

·       Romania Retail Sales (October)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Prel (October)/ Retail Sales (October)

·       France Industrial Production (October)/ HCOB Construction PMI (November)

·       Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Retail Sales (October)

·       Spain Industrial Production (October)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (November)/ Retail Sales (October)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (November)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (November)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (November)/ BoE Greene Speech

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (October)

·       Ireland Current Account Q3/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ GNP Q3

·       Serbia PPI (November)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/29)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Jordan PPI (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Current Account Q3

·       Kenya Interest Rate Decision

Friday, December 6, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Mercosur Summit begins in Uruguay, bringing leaders from the South American trading bloc together to discuss trade.  Last week, the French parliament dealt a tough blow to a potential EU-Mercosur agreement, siding with French farmers who opposed the deal and voting 484 to 70 against signing a deal.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman gives a speech at the Missouri Bankers Association Executive Management Conference (Virtual)

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly to participate in "Emerging Technology and the Economy" conversation hosted by the Hoover Institution.

·       Chile Inflation Rate (November)

·       Mexico Auto Exports & Production (November)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (November)/ Participation Rate (November)/ Full & Part Time Employment Chg (November)/ Average Hourly Wages (November)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (November)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (October)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (November)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (November)

·       USA Unemployment Rate (November)/ Participation Rate (November)/ Non-Farm and Manufacturing and Government Payrolls (November)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate/Michigan Current Conditions Prel (December)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (December/06)/ Consumer Credit Change (October)/ Used Car Prices (November)/ Total Vehicle Sales (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (October)

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (October)/ Household Spending (October)/ Overtime Pay (October)/ Coincident Index Prel (October)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (October)

·       Australia Home Loans (October)/ Investment Lending for Homes (October)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Tourist Arrivals (November)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (November)

·       India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/29)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russia's President Vladimir Putin visits Minsk, Belarus to validate security concept of the Russian-Belarusian Union.

·       The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) begins a two-day ministerial meeting in Malta.  Foreign ministers will meet to review and address the security situation in the Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian area, as well as to evaluate the Organization's work in all its fields of activity.

·       The EU Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council (Telecom) meets in Brussels.  Ministers will approve conclusions on the EU Agency for cybersecurity (ENISA) and on the Commission’s White Paper ‘How to master Europe’s digital infrastructure needs?’. They will also hold a policy debate on the digital decade 2030 objectives and targets in light of recent technological changes. Over an informal lunch, ministers will discuss ways to improve EU coordination and enhance the effectiveness of actions within the International Telecommunication Union (ITU). Finally, the incoming Polish presidency will inform the Council on its work program for the first semester 2025.

·       Today is Finland Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Netherlands Household Consumption (October)

·       Germany Industrial Production (October)

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (November)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (November)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (October)/ Budget Balance (November)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Current Account (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Italy Retail Sales (October)

·       Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Employment Change Q3

·       Greece Balance of Trade (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) holds its Manama Dialogue in Bahrain.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (November)

·       Jordan Unemployment Rate Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Ghana General Elections

Saturday, December 7, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The 22nd Doha Forum on Democracy, Development and Free Trade begins and runs through December 8. The theme of this year’s two-day event is “The Innovation Imperative.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Ghana holds both presidential and parliamentary elections.  However, the government is facing an unprecedented shutdown in advance of the election unless they pass a provisional budget in advance of the election.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 8, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Romania holds  its presidential election run-off.  

·       Notre-Dame Cathedral official reopens to the public after a catastrophic fire five years ago.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

France’s Fragile Coalition Government Faces A No-Confidence Vote, G7 Foreign Ministers Meet in Italy to Discuss the Situation in Ukraine and Israel, Washington Goes Quiet to Celebrate Thanksgiving, and Putin Travels to Kazakhstan

November 24 - December 1, 2024

While Washington goes (relatively) quiet this week before the Thanksgiving holiday, plenty of important events are taking place worldwide.  First, we would note a high-stakes meeting on Monday between French Prime Minister Michel Barnier and French right-wing leader Marine Le Pen to try to hammer out an agreement on the proposed 2025 budget.  Le Pen has threatened to call for a no-confidence vote, which would likely shatter the French government's fragile coalition.  Le Pen is also awaiting a verdict on the criminal case against her in French court this week – adding further tension in Paris. 

Meanwhile, the G7 foreign ministers gather in Italy to discuss Ukraine and the Middle East.  We would not the next time the G7 foreign ministers meet, it will be a very different group, with President-elect Trump's Secretary of State-designate Marco Rubio there and likely new foreign ministers representing Germany, Canada, and perhaps Japan.  All are likely to lean more to the right politically than the current group.

Kazakhstan will be hosting the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) Heads of State Summit, and Russian President Vladimir Putin will attend, where he seeks to sign a number of energy deals to boost Russian oil and gas exports.  His visit comes as his War on Ukraine is escalating to new levels, with Ukrainian forces empowered to use US and other NATO member-made advanced missiles against Russian (and North Korean) forces.   Early reports from the battlefield suggest the weapons are having a deadly effect on Russian forces, killing at least one senior Russian commander and hundreds of North Korean troops.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, US markets will be quiet, with Thanksgiving celebrated on Thursday and markets closed.  However, a number of important data reports will be released this week, as the October PCE and personal income and consumption data will be released on Wednesday, which will also be watched in advance of the upcoming December 18th Fed meeting.  Additionally, Fed FOMC minutes are being released on Tuesday.  The Conference Board's consumer confidence report will be released on Tuesday, too. 

In Asia this week, Japan releases CPI, Labor market, and several other major reports.  And in Europe, the European Central Bank releases its consumer expectations on Friday.  There will be a Eurozone inflation print on Friday.   Germany will see the release of the Ifo survey on Monday and retail sales on Friday.

Below is our weekly report of all the major political and economic issues and events we are watching closely this week.  Happy Thanksgiving!

Sunday, November 24, 2024 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Uruguay holds presidential runoff elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Senior Minister of Singapore Lee Hsien Loong visits China. It will be a six-day visit and his first visit since stepping down as Prime Minister in May.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Romania holds presidential elections. Surveys show that the current leading candidates are not backed by the governing Social Democrats (PSD) and the Liberals (PNL).  PSD and PNL will likely agree on a joint candidate ahead of the vote, with current Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu of the PSD being the most likely candidate. A second round will be held on 8 December.

·       Switzerland holds a vote on two referendums including one the 13th OASI pension payment – adding a 13th month of pension payments. And one raising the retirement age this year.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Guinea Bissau holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, November 25, 2024

Global

·       G7 Foreign Ministers meet in Fuggi and Anagni, Italy.

·      The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question, followed by consultations.

·      The 29th Conference of States Parties to the Chemical Weapons Convention, seeking cuts to such munitions, begins in The Hague and continues until Friday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US President Joe Biden hosts traditional pardon of a Thanksgiving turkey.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (November)/ Current Account (October)/ Foreign Direct Investment (October)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (October)

·       USA CB Consumer Confidence (November)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (November)/ Chicago Fed National Activity Index (October)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (October)

·       Mexico Current Account Q3

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim meets his South Korean counterpart, Yoon Suk Yeol, during a three-day official visit expected to see bilateral ties elevated to a strategic partnership. The two countries are aiming to finalize a free trade agreement in 2025.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Retail Sales Q3

·       Singapore GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (September)/ Leading Index (September)

·       Japan Coincident Index Final (September)/ Leading Economic Index Final (September)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ M2 Money Supply (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       French Prime Minister Michel Barnier meets with far-right leader Marine Le Pen.  Le Pen has threatened to see a no-confidence vote that would break up the fragile coalition government over the proposed 2025 budget. Meanwhile, Le Pen will learn the verdict date of the embezzlement trial against her on November 27.

·       German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius meets counterparts from France, Britain, Poland and Italy.

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz receives Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov in Berlin.

·       The European Economic Area Council will meet in Brussels. will discuss the overall functioning of the EEA Agreement and hold an orientation debate on “Enhancing Europe’s competitiveness and resilience: the role of the EEA cooperation.”  The meeting will be chaired by Espen Barth Eide, Minister for Foreign Affairs of Norway.

·       The EU Education, Youth, Culture and Sport Council meets in Brussels through November 26.  Ministers will discuss expected to approve conclusions on providing ‘glocal’ opportunities for young people living in rural and remote areas and will discuss the evolving demographic trends shaping opportunities for rural youth.  They will also seek to adopt a recommendation on attractive and sustainable careers in higher education and will hold a policy debate on boosting future-proof skills and competitiveness through higher education.

·       The Energy Intelligence Forum takes place in London through November 27.

·       German  Ex-chancellor Angela Merkel launches her memoir 'Freedom: Memories 1954 - 2021' (Freiheit: Erinnerungen 1954 – 2021).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the keynote speech at the Bank of England Watchers’ Conference 2024 in London.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Clare Lombardelli gives a speech at the 3rd Bank of England Watchers Conference in London.

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Swati Dhingra will participate in a panel at the 3rd Bank of England Watchers’ Conference on “inflation dynamics” in London.

·       Turkey Business Confidence (November)/ Capacity Utilization (November)

·       Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls Q3

·       Spain PPI (October)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate/ Current Conditions/ Expectations (November)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (October)/ Corporate Sector Wages (October)/ Employment Growth (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ PPI (October)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (November)/ Tourist Arrivals (October)

·       Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (October)

·       Ghana Interest Rate Decision

Tuesday, November 26, 2024 

Global

·       The UN Security Council meets on the protection of civilians in conflict. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (November)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (October)

·       US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Markets Committee minutes released/Redbook (November/23)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (September)/ House Price Index (September)/ New Home Sales (October)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (November)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (November)/ Money Supply (October)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (November/29)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (November/22)/ Building Permits Final (October)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The APAC Wind Energy Summit takes place in Seoul, South Korea. Asia-Pacific policymakers and industry leaders will discuss challenges in wind energy development as concern grows about how the sector will be impacted under a second Trump presidency in the United States. The three-day APAC Wind Energy Summit, hosted by the Global Wind Energy Council, highlights the region's key role in hitting global targets to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030.

·       The 2nd China International Supply Chain Expo takes place in Beijing.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Indonesia Property Price Index Q3

·       Singapore Industrial Production (October)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       France’s National Assembly holds a debate and vote on the prospect of a trade deal between the EU and South America’s Mercosur bloc, which is strongly opposed by French farmers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives a speech followed by Q&A at the EBF's Executive Committee Meeting in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Poland Retail Sales (October)

·       Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (September)

·       Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, November 27, 2024 

Global

·       The U.N. Environment Programme will convene the fifth session of its Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee in the South Korean city of Busan in pursuit of an international legally binding instrument on plastic pollution. Environmentalists say policymakers need to commit to cutting production of plastic, not just reusing or recycling it. A lack of consensus on finer details and opposition from major petroleum-producing countries could hinder efforts to reach an agreement.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (October)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (November/22)/ PCE Price Index (October)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (October)/ Initial Jobless Claims (November/23)/ Chicago PMI (November)/ Pending Home Sales (October)/ EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (November/22)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (November/26)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (November/22)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indonesians vote in nationwide regional polls to elect provincial governors, city leaders and regents. More than 3,000 candidates are set to compete across nearly 550 regions, including in the newly formed provinces South Papua, Central Papua and Highland Papua.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (November)

·       Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (October)/ Construction Work Done Q3

·       New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision/ RBNZ Press Conference

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (October)

·       Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (October)

·       Malaysia PPI (October)

·       India M3 Money Supply (November/15)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russia's President Vladimir Putin expected to visit Kazakhstan for bilateral meetings.  He will stay on for the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) Heads of State Summit through November 28.

·       The Nordic-Baltic Summit will be held through November 28 in Sweden.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives introductory remarks at the opening dinner of a Conference on “Macroeconomic modelling frontiers for research and policy” organized by the ECB in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence DEC

·       France Consumer Confidence (November)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (October)/ Jobseekers Total (October)

·       Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (November)

·       Russia Unemployment Rate (October)/ Business Confidence (November)/ Corporate Profits (September)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Real Wage Growth (September)/ Retail Sales (October)/ GDP (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Namibia holds general elections.

·       Tanzania holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, November 28, 2024

Global

· The World Trade Organization meets to advance the selection process for the next Director-General.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Thanksgiving in the US.  Markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (November)/ Bank Lending (October)/ PPI (October)/ Net Payrolls (October)

·       Canada Current Account Q3/ Average Weekly Earnings (September)

·       Mexico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Asian Development Bank announces its new president to succeed the outgoing Masatsugu Asakawa. Japan's former currency czar, Masato Kanda, was the sole candidate vying for the bank's top job. His expected appointment marks a continuation of the longstanding practice of the multilateral lender being led by a Japanese national since its founding in 1966.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (November/23)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (November/23)

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (November)

·       Australia Building Capital Expenditure Q3/ Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure Q3/ Private Capital Expenditure Q3/ RBA Bullock Speech

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU General Affairs Council (Cohesion) will meet in Brussels.  Ministers will hold a policy debate on strengthening the key assets of cohesion policy and how to improve the shared management of cohesion funds in line with the principle of subsidiarity in the future.

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (internal market and industry) meets in Brussels.  The Council will exchange views on better regulation in the EU. Ministers will be invited to discuss the current state of play of the better regulation agenda – also in connection with the Draghi report – and to identify pathways for improvement.

·       Italian trade unions will hold a general strike over the proposed Italian budget.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member  Frank Elderson gives introductory remarks at an online webinar "Advancements in Nature-Related Risks and Climate-Nature Scenarios for Financial Decision-Making" organized by NatureFinance and the European Central Bank.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a speech at the 25th anniversary of Euro 50 Group at Banque de France in Paris, France.

·       Great Britain Car Production (October)

·       Netherlands Business Confidence (November)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (October)/ Economic Confidence Index (November)/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/22)

·       Euro Area to Households & Companies (October)/ M3 Money Supply (October)/ Economic Sentiment (November)/ Consumer Confidence Final (November)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (November)/ Industrial Sentiment (November)/ Selling Price Expectations (November)/ Services Sentiment (November)

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (November)/ Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (November)/ Business Confidence (November)

·       Germany Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (November)/ Bavaria CPI (November)/ Brandenburg CPI (November)/ Hesse CPI (November)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (November)/ Saxony CPI (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)

·       Italy Business Confidence (November)/ Consumer Confidence (November)/ PPI (October)

·       Poland GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (October)

·       Greece Total Credit (October)

·       Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate (November)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Wholesale Prices (October)/ Parliamentary Election

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (September)/ Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (October)

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (October)/ Private Bank Lending (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (October)

·       Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (November)

Friday, November 29, 2024

Global

·       The UN celebrates the International Day of Solidarity with the Palestinian People. 

·        Today is “Black Friday” the beginning of the of the Christmas sales season.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Joe Biden is expected to visit Angola.

·       Today is “Black Friday,” the traditional beginning of the Christmas shopping season.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (October)/ Nominal Budget Balance (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Annualized Q3/ Budget Balance (September)

·       Chile Copper Production (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Manufacturing Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (October)/ Cement Production (October)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (October)

·       USA Fed Balance Sheet (November/27)

·       Mexico Fiscal Balance (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan’s parliament returns to work.  Debate gets underway as Japan's newly elected lawmakers return to the Diet after last month's snap elections. A supplementary budget bill will be among the items at the top of their agenda, with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba delivering a policy speech Friday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (November)

·       South Korea Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (October)/ Jobs/applications ratio (October)/ Tokyo CPI (November)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Consumer Confidence (November)/ Housing Starts (October)/ Construction Orders (October)

·       Australia Housing Credit (October)/ Private Sector Credit (October)/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (November)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (October)/ Export Prices (October)/ Import Prices (October)/ PPI (October)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Tourist Arrivals (November)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (October)/ Current Account (October)/ Private Consumption (October)/ Private Investment (October)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (October)

·       Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (October)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (November)/ PPI (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       India Government Budget Value (October)/ Bank Loan Growth (November/15)/ Deposit Growth (November/15)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/22)/ Infrastructure Output (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Ireland holds general elections to elect the 34th Dáil (parliament).

·       UK members of Parliament will MPs debate and vote on a bill to legalize assisted dying in England and Wales.

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Research and Space) will meet in Brussels. Ministers are expected to adopt Council conclusions on strengthening the competitiveness of the EU and overcoming the fragmentation of the European Research Area based on the experiences implementing the ERA Policy Agenda (2022-2024).  They will also adopt Council conclusions on a potential Europe-wide research and innovation initiative on advancing sustainable natural resource management, food systems security and the deployment of the bioeconomy, harnessing the potential of Central and Eastern Europe (BIOEAST, partnership). BIOEAST (the Central-Eastern European Initiative for Knowledge-based Agriculture, Aquaculture and Forestry in the Bioeconomy) was established in 2015 to establish a strategic research and innovation framework to work towards sustainable bioeconomy in Central and Eastern European countries.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a speech at the Encuentro de Economia organized by Fundació Internacional Olof Palme in Barcelona, Spain.

·       Netherlands Inflation Rate (November)

·       France Private Non-Farm Payrolls Q3

·       Germany Retail Sales (October)/ Import Prices (October)/ Unemployed Persons (November)/ Unemployment Change (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Turkey GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Financial Stability Report

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (November)/ BoE Consumer Credit (October)/ Mortgage Approvals (October)/ Mortgage Lending (October)/ M4 Money Supply (October)/ Net Lending to Individuals (October)

·       Hungary PPI (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ KOF Leading Indicators (November)

·       France Inflation Rate (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Household Consumption (October)/ PPI (October)

·       Spain Retail Sales (October)/ Current Account (September)

·       Italy Industrial Sales (September)/ Inflation Rate (November)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (November)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (November)

·       Euro Area Inflation Rate (November)/ CPI Flash (November)

·       Greece PPI (October)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Unemployment Rate Q3

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (October)

·       Ukraine Current Account (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (October)/ Private Sector Credit (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Budget Balance (October)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (November)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (October)

Saturday, November 30, 2024 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te is due to depart for a tour of Taipei's remaining Pacific allies -- the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu and Palau. His office has yet to confirm plans for potential stopovers, possibly in the U.S. The trip could elicit an angry response from China, which has exerted heavy pressure on Lai since he took office in May, with two rounds of major military drills surrounding Taiwan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Retail Sales (October)

·       China NBS Manufacturing & Non- Manufacturing PMI (November)/ NBS General PMI (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Iceland holds snap parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 1, 2024 

Global

·       Ministers from Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (Opec+) meet in Vienna, Austria.

·       South Africa takes the presidency of the G20 Presidency.

·       Today is the first day of Advent.

·       Today is the first day of the meteorological winter int the Northern Hemisphere.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Australia Commodity Prices (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Romania holds parliamentary elections.

·       Liechtenstein holds a referendum regarding a package of measures proposed by the Liechtenstein Employee Pension Foundation (SPL), directed at a state pension fund. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) leaders will meet in Kuwait to discuss regional issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Entering the Final Week of the U.S. Election Campaign Season, Gaza Peace Negotiators Try Again to Broker a Cease-Fire, And A Big US Economic Data Week

October 27 - November 3, 2024

The U.S. is going into the final week of campaigning in what is proving to be one of the tensest presidential elections in recent memory and too close to predict at this point.  Polling has proven to be extremely tight and, more often than not, confusing to most observers.  But it seems it all comes down to whoever wins Pennsylvania wins the presidency.  Control of the U.S. House of Representatives is also proving to be close but seems to lean toward Democrats winning control, while control of the Senate looks likely to flip to Republicans.  But one thing is clear: Everyone we have spoken to cannot wait until November 5th to get the voting behind us.

Looking globally, the coming week is relatively quiet following a busy week of the IMF/World Bank meetings and BRICS Summit (which seems to have been something of a bust for host Russian President Vladimir Putin with little achieved).  Markets are somewhat relieved Israel's much anticipated retaliatory attack on Iran Saturday appears to have been limited and likely not to lead to further direct Iranian strikes or significant expansion of fighting in the region.  But Israeli action against Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon continues and is not expected to end anytime soon.  Meanwhile, Israeli, U.S., and Qatari negotiators are gathering in Doha this week in another effort to broker a cease-fire in Gaza.

Looking at the global economic radar screen, it will be a busy week in the U.S. as the Conference Board's consumer confidence report is on Tuesday, the Q3 GDP numbers are out on Wednesday, PCE data is on Thursday, and the jobs report is released Friday.

In Asia, it is also going to be a busy week in Japan.  The Bank of Japan (BoJ) meets on Thursday to decide interest rates.  We will also see the BoJ release its Outlook Report on Thursday.  This comes after the labor market indicator print is released on Monday, and the Industrial Production and Consumer Confidence reports are released on Wednesday. 

China releases its PMIs on Thursday and the Caixin Manufacturing PMI on Friday.   But markets will particularly examine this week's earnings from large Chinese banks to gauge loan losses, giving a better insight into the country's ongoing economic challenges.

Turning to Europe, Germany, France, and the Eurozone will release Q3 GDP figures.  Germany will also release inflation figures on Wednesday, with France and Italy releasing their inflation figures on Thursday.  In the U.K., the much-anticipated first budget of the recently elected Labour Government will be presented on Wednesday.

There are very few major central bank speeches scheduled this week following a busy week in Washington last week at the IMF/World Bank meetings.  The U.S. Federal Reserve Board is in its "black-out period" in advance of the FMOC meeting on November 6 and 7.  Among G7 central banks, the most notable event is Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem's testimony before the Canadian parliament this week.

Below is what else we are closely watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, October 27, 2024

Global

·       European and British Summer Time end. Clocks go back one hour. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Uruguay holds presidential and parliamentary elections. However, the elections are being marred by a controversial $23 billion proposal to overhaul the social security system. If approved, the measure would increase minimum payouts, lower the retirement age and transfer privately managed savings to a government-run trust in what advocates see as a way to share the nation’s resources more equally.

·        Brazil holds its second round of municipal elections. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·         Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan holds snap elections for its the House of Representatives. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party  (LDP) is at risk of losing its majority in the lower house, which would mean the LDP would have to rely on a coalition partnership with the Komeito Party– which is currently does to hold power in the upper house.  The LDP needs to win 233 seats for an outright majority.

·       Uzbekistan holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Lithuania holds the second round of parliamentary elections.

·       Bulgaria will hold snap parliamentary elections. This is the third attempt to form a government since June and the sixth snap elections held in the country since 2021.

·       Liechtenstein holds a vote on a referendum on the privatization of Radio Lichtenstein.

Economic Reports/Events –

·         Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli, Qatari, and US negotiators will meet in Doha seeking a cease-fire in Gaza.

Economic Reports/Events –

·         Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 28, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on Sudan. Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to deliver remarks. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on 2713 Committee (dealing with Somalia as well as a Troop Contributing Countries (TCC) meeting.  

·       The OECD releases Guidelines on Corporate Governance of State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs).

·       The OECD holds its Sustainable Agricultural Productivity Conference in Paris.

·       The UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) experts will present the organization's annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin.

·       The UN’s International Conference on Women, Peace and Security will be held through October 31 in Manila, Philippines.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Canadian province of Saskatchewan holds legislative elections.

·       The 2024 Microelectronics Commons Annual Meeting and National Semiconductor Technology Center Symposium begins in Washington.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (September)/ CFIB Business Barometer (October)

·       Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem will participate in a fireside chat at the Logic Summit in Ontario.

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (September)

·       USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (October)/ Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates

·       Colombia Business Confidence (September)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Philippine Senate will begin an investigation into former President Rodrigo Duterte's controversial war on drugs. The policy began when he was elected in 2016 and by some estimates led to the killing of as many as 30,000 Filipinos. As Nikkei recently reported, an investigation by congressional lawmakers has recently confirmed a bounty system for police that directly linked Duterte's allies, including two sitting senators, to the violent campaign.

·       The Asian Development Bank will elect a new president.  Only one candidate is running – Japan’s former currency czar Masato Kana. 

·       ASEAN Labor Ministers meet in Singapore.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Malaysia PPI (September)

·       Singapore Import & Export Prices (September)/ PPI (September)

·       Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (October)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Finnish President Alexander Stubb begins a state visit to China.  Stubb is expected to discuss the war in Ukraine and China’s role in supporting Russian forces.  They are also going to talk about the ongoing trade disputes with the EU and bilateral trade issues.

·       The EU-Western Balkans Ministerial Forum begins in Montenegro.

·       French President Emmanuel Macron begins a three-day state visit to the former colony, marking a step towards easing three years of strained relations between the two countries.

·       The 2024 Session of the Nordic Council begins in Reykjavik, Iceland and runs through October 31.  The theme of the meeting is “Peace and Security in the Arctic.”  There are 87 elected members of te Council from Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, The Faroe Islands, Norway, Greenland, and Åland Islands.  Belarus opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya will address the group in a bid to encourage continued opposition to the Belarus dictatorship.

·       The environmental group, Extinction Rebellion, is expected to hold large protest targeting London-based issuers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos gives a speech and participates in a Q&A at Foro Reflexión organized by Grupo Hotusa in Madrid, Spain

·       Spain Retail Sales (September)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (September)

·       Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Saudi Arabia hosts the Future Investment Initiative (FII) through October 31.  The event is a showcase explaining the kingdom’s vision for transforming the country into a financial hub as well as the country’s advancements in technology, minerals, and mining.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (September)

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (September)/ Private Bank Lending (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The 10th session of the UN Global Geospatial Information Management for Africa will be held in Addis Ababa.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (September)

Tuesday, October 29, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Middle East. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Current Account (September)/ Foreign Direct Investment (September)

·       Canada BoC Macklem Speech

·       Chile Unemployment Rate (September)

·       USA Goods Trade Balance Adv (September)/ Redbook (October/26)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (August)/ House Price Index (August)/ JOLTs Job Openings & Quits (September)/ CB Consumer Confidence (October)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (October)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/25)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The International Mining and Resources Conference will be held in Sydney, Australia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (September)/ Jobs/applications ratio (September)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Tourist Arrivals (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (September)/ Mortgage Approvals & Lending (September)/ M4 Money Supply (September)/ Net Lending to Individuals (September)

·       Ireland GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Retail Sales (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Africa HealthTech Summit begins in Kigali, Rwanda.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (September)/ Private Sector Credit (September)

Wednesday, October 30, 2024

Global

·       A Joint meeting of G20 Finance Ministers and Health Ministers will take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.  Later, the G20 Health Ministers Conference will meet.

·       G20 Education Ministers will meet in Fortaleza, Brazil.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold votes linked to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) and the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL). Also in the morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold votes related to the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) and Colombia.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canada will host the Ministerial Conference on Human Dimension of Ukraine’s Peace Formula in Montreal.  he Ministerial Conference will bring together Foreign Affairs Ministers to advance the common vision articulated by the Joint Communiqué on a Peace Framework developed at the Summit on Peace in Ukraine at Bürgenstock, Switzerland, in June 2024.  During the conference, Ministers will exchange views with the aim of developing a concrete plan, guided by the principles of international human rights and humanitarian law, for the return of prisoners of war as well as deported civilians and children back to Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (October)/ Bank Lending (September)/ PPI (September)/ Net Payrolls (September)

·       USA MBA Purchase Index (October/25)/ ADP Employment Change (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ GDP Price Index Q3/ GDP Sales Q3/ PCE Prices Q3/ Real Consumer Spending Q3/ Treasury Refunding Announcement/ Pending Home Sales (September)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/25)

·       Chile Copper/ Industrial/ Manufacturing Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Mexico GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Fiscal Balance (September)

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers will testfy before the Canadian Parliament. 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun will meet with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in Washington for the 56th Bilateral Security Consultative Meetings.  

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia CPI Q3/ Monthly CPI Indicator (September)/ Inflation Rate Q3/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q3/ RBA Weighted Median CPI Q3

·       Philippines PPI (September)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (September)

·       Japan Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Singapore Business Confidence Q3

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (September)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (October)/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       India Infrastructure Output (September)/ M3 Money Supply (October/18)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Commission is expected to publish the final disclosure for planned import duties on Chinese made electric vehicles (EV).  Once implemented, the duties will be in place for five years.

·       The UK Autumn Budget will be presented to Parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives the keynote speech at the SAFE-CEPR conference on Euro@25 organized by Leibniz Institute SAFE in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Netherlands Business Confidence (October)

·       France GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Household Consumption (September)

·       Turkey Economic Confidence Index (October)

·       Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Slovakia Business & Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Business Confidence (October)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (October)/ Economic Sentiment Index (October)/ SNB Press Conference

·       Germany Unemployment Rate (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (October)/ Bavaria CPI (October)/ Brandenburg CPI (October)/ Hesse CPI (October)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (October)/ Saxony CPI (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)

·       Italy GDP Growth Rate Q3/ PPI (September)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (October)

·       Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Economic Sentiment (October)/ Consumer Confidence Final (October)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (October)/ Industrial Sentiment (October)/ Selling Price Expectations (October)/ Services Sentiment (October)/ ECB Schnabel Speech

·       Greece PPI (September)

·       Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate (October)

·       Russia Unemployment Rate (September)/ Business Confidence (October)/ Corporate Profits (August)/ Real Wage Growth (August)/ Retail Sales (September)/ GDP (September)

·       Great Britain Autumn Budget 2024

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (August)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (September)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (September)/ Private Bank Lending (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Botswana holds general elections.  President Mokgweetsi Masisi is expected to win a second five-year term.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Budget Balance (September)/ Medium-term budget statement

Thursday, October 31, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Threats to international peace and security. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (September)/ Nominal Budget Balance (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (October)/ Personal Income & Spending (September)/ Employment Cost Index Q3/ Initial Jobless Claims (October/26)/ PCE Price Index (September)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (October/26)/ Chicago PMI (October)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/25)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/30)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/30)

·       Canada GDP (August)/ Average Weekly Earnings (August)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (September)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (September)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India celebrates Diwali, the festival of lights. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Japan Industrial Production (September) / Retail Sales (September)/ Foreign Bond Investment (October/26)

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (October)

·       Australia Housing Credit (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Export Prices Q3/ Import Prices Q3/ Private Sector Credit (September)/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (October)

·       China NBS Manufacturing & Non- Manufacturing PMI (October)/ NBS General PMI (October)

·       Japan Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision/ BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report/ Housing Starts (September)/ Construction Orders (September)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (September)/ Current Account (September)/ Private Consumption & Investment (September)

·       Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       India Government Budget Value (September)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Sri Lanka PPI (September)/ Unemployment Rate Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russia hosts the World Congress of Compatriots Living Abroad.  The meeting brings together approximately 400 leaders and activists from Russian communities from 103 countries.  The agenda includes “…the preservation of traditional and family values, the safeguarding of cultural and historical heritage, protection of the rights and legitimate interests of compatriots, promotion of the Russian language and education, engagement of youth in diaspora activities, development of Russian-language media, and matters concerning relocation to the Russian Federation.”

·       The 2nd International Eurasian Security Conference will be held in Minsk, Belarus through November 1.  Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will chair the conference.

·       The UK Conservative Party elections will end.  The new Party leader will be announced on Saturday, November 2.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden will give a speech in Hong Kong entitled “Engaging with the machine: AI and Financial Stability.”

·       Netherlands Inflation Rate (October)

·       Germany Retail Sales (September)/ Import Prices (September)

·       Romania Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (September)/ Tourism Revenues Q3/ Retail Sales (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/25)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Final (August)/ PPI (September)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (September)

·       France Inflation Rate (October)/ PPI (September)

·       Spain Tourist Arrivals (September)/ Current Account (August)

·       Euro Area ECB Bulletin/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ CPI Flash (October)

·       Italy Unemployment Rate (September)/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Industrial Sales (August)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (October)

·       Greece Retail Sales (August)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Great Britain BoE Breeden Speech

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (September)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision/ Current Account (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

·       South Africa PPI (September)/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (October)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (September)

Friday, November 1, 2024

Global

·       The United Kingdom takes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of November.

·       The G20 Disaster Risk Reduction Ministerial meeting takes place in Belem, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the Day of the Dead in Mexico.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ Business Confidence (October)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (October)

·       Brazil Industrial Production (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (October)

·       USA Unemployment Rate (October)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate/ Participation Rate (October)/ Government Payrolls (October)/ Manufacturing & Nonfarm Payrolls (October)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (October)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Construction Spending (September)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (November/01)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (October)

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (October)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (October)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Building Permits (September)

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (October)/ Building Permits (September)/ Home Loans (September)/ Investment Lending for Homes (September)/ PPI Q3/ Commodity Prices (October)

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Tourist Arrivals (September)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (October)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Business Confidence (October)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (October)/ Bank Loan Growth (October/18)/ Deposit Growth (October/18)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/25)

·       Kazakhstan Current Account Q3/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (September)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (October)/ Wholesale Prices (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       North Korean troops are expected to begin deploying against Ukrainian Forces in Kursk.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Most financial markets are closed as is the European Central Bank for All Saints’ Day, a public holiday.

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Netherlands Retail Sales (September)/ NEVI Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ M2 Money Supply (September)

·       Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (October)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (October)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (October)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Spain New Car Sales (October)

·       Italy New Car Registrations (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (October)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (October)

Saturday, November 2, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       One of our favorite days of the year!  The end of Daylight Savings as clocks are set back one hour and we get an extra hour of sleep.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 2nd round of presidential elections takes place in Moldova.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, November 3, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Standing Committee National People's Congress will gather for meetings through November 8.  They will consider draft laws and amendments to laws dealing with mineral resources, energy, anti-money laundering, and maritime issues.  They are not expected to discuss the ongoing national economic challenges or how to deal with the debt crisis.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

The World Bank/IMF Annual Meetings Convenes in Washington – As Does the Annual BRICS Meeting in Russia, Important Elections Being Held in Eastern Europe, What Happens Next in the Middle East After Sinwar’s Death?

October 20 - 27, 2024

This will be an extremely busy and particularly important week, both geopolitically and for global markets.  The World Bank/International Monetary Fund (IMF) meetings are being held in Washington, D.C. this week.  As finance ministers and central bank chiefs from around the world converge on Washington to discuss global economic issues, managing growing global debt, which, as the IMF reported this past week, is approaching $100 trillion globally – 93 percent of the global GDP – and is on track to surpass 100 percent of global GDP by 2030).  On the sidelines of the meetings, G20 Finance Ministers will also meet in Washington under the chairmanship of Brazil, who is strongly advocating the voice of the “Global South” as a growing economic power.

However, as the World Bank/IMF meetings occur, leaders of the BRICS nations will gather in Russia to meet under the chair of Russian President Vladimir Putin.  The meeting – seen by Moscow as something of a victory over Western sanctions and pressure to end its war on Ukraine – will see the presidents or prime ministers of China, India, Turkey, the UAE, Brazil, Iran, Egypt, and more than 24 other countries discussing issues including how to end the dominance of the US dollar and building an alternative financial system.  Most observers are not expecting any significant breakthroughs.  But it is also likely the BRICS will approve the invitation to up to two dozen new member countries.

Also this week, several important elections are being held in countries Russia is battling to influence and draw into its orbit: Moldova, Bulgaria, and Georgia.  Russian efforts have become so brazen—especially in Moldova—that they are offering bribes to vote against the pro-EU/pro-West governments.

We also continue to watch the evolving situation in the Middle East.  Israel continues to prepare for a retaliatory military strike against Iran (which could come at any time) while continuing its efforts to destroy Hezbollah’s operations in Southern Lebanon.  But the news that Hamas’ political leader, Yahha Sinwar, has been killed by Israeli Forces may prove to be an inflection point in the war in Gaza.  At the time of this writing, there are reports trickling in of larger numbers of Hamas fighters surrendering to Israeli Forces.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, beyond the World Bank/IMF meetings and BRICS meeting, markets are focused on the release of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book on Wednesday and the durable goods orders report on Friday.  Also, the Bank of Canada meets on interest rates on Wednesday.

In Asia, China will announce its 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates on Monday and any new stimulus plans or details of already announced stimulus plans coming from Beijing.   In Japan, the October CPI is out this Friday.

Turning to Europe, the European Central Bank’s consumer expectations survey will be released on Friday, as will Germany’s Ifo survey and France’s, Italy’s, and the U.K.’s consumer confidence reports.

Below is what else we are closely watching happening around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, October 20, 2024

Global

·       The BRICS 1st Climate Congress will be held in Sochi, Russia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Revolution Day in Guatemala, celebrating the overthrow of a dictatorship in 1944.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indonesia’s new president, Prabowa Sunianto, will be sworn into office. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (September)

·       China FDI (YTD) (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Moldova holds presidential elections and a vote on a constitutional referendum on EU integration. There are substantial fears Russia will seek to disrupt the elections in an attempt to block a yes vote on joining the EU – to the point where Russian operatives are openly offering bribes to Moldovans to vote against joining the EU.  Pro-EU President Maya Sandu is likely to receive the most votes in the election, but a runoff is also likely.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iraq holds regional elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 21, 2024

Global

·       UN Secretary-General António Guterres will be in Addis Ababa to take part in the 8th African Union – United Nations annual conference. The high-level discussions will be co-chaired by Moussa Faki Mahamat, the Chairperson of the African Union Commission and the Secretary-General. Later in the day, the Secretary-General will go to the UN Economic Commission for Africa in Addis Ababa, where he will take part in the re-inauguration ceremony of Africa Hall, which is reopening after extensive renovations to transform it into a modern conference center.

·       The UN Convention on Biological Diversity (COP16) to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) in Cali, Colombia through November 1.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on maintenance of international peace and security: Anticipating the impact of scientific developments on international peace and security. In the afternoon, the Security Council will hold a briefing on Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is likely to visit Israel for talks regarding the situation in Gaza and pursue new cease-fire negotiations in the wake of the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid to speak on the economic and monetary policy outlook before hybrid event hosted by the Chartered Financial Analyst Society, Kansas City.

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan to speak and participate in a moderated question-and-answer session before the 2024 SIFMA (Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association) Annual Meeting in New York.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in Chippewa Falls Chamber of Commerce town hall.

·       USA CB Leading Index (September)

·       Colombia Imports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (September)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. and Philippine military forces will participate in the Sama Sama 2024 and Kamandag 8 drills through October 24.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia RBA Hauser Speech

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (September)

·       Malaysia GDP Growth Rate Prel Q3

·       Taiwan Export Orders (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·    Singapore’s International Energy Week begins and runs through October 26. Speakers include industry executives and energy ministers from Tanzania, Cambodia, Laos, Australia and New Zealand, discussing energy security and transition plans.

• The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Luxembourg through October 22.  The ministers will discuss reaching a political agreement on next year’s fishing opportunities in the Baltic Sea.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany PPI (September)

·       Greece Current Account (August)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (September)/ Employment Growth (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ PPI (September)

·       Slovenia PPI (September)

·       Slovakia Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (September)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (September)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (August)

·       Oman Inflation Rate (September)/ M2 Money Supply (August)/ Total Credit (August)

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (September)

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mozambique’s opposition politician Venâncio Mondlane, who early vote counts placed second in the country’s October 9 presidential election, called for a countrywide strike today to protest preliminary results he’s already rejected. He urged supporters to “paralyze” the country, according to a video posted to his social media channels including YouTube on Wednesday. Mondlane has repeatedly said he was winning.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, October 22, 2024

Global

·       The 16th BRICS Summit begins in Kazan, Russia, and runs through October 24.  This is the first time the BRICS has met since expanding the membership to include Iran, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Ethiopia.  In total, leaders from 32 countries are expected to attend.  Among the agenda items will be efforts to move away from the dominance of the US dollar further, create an alternative financial infrastructure, and plan for future expansion.

The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a private meeting with ICJ briefing. In the afternoon, a briefing on the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) is scheduled to be held, followed by consultations.

·       G7 Development Ministers meet in Pescara, Italy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canada's 25% surtax on Chinese steel and aluminum imports will go into effect.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on "Fintech" before the Eighth Annual Fintech Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

·       Mexico Economic Activity (August)

·       Canada PPI (September)/ Raw Materials Prices (September)

·       USA Redbook (October/19)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (October)/ Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (October)/ Money Supply (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/18)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (September)

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Parliament will debate and vote on a €35 billion financial assistance package for Ukraine as part of the G7’s support initiative. The package leverages extraordinary profits from frozen Russian assets and aims to address Ukraine’s urgent financing needs in the face of Russia’s brutal war of aggression.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen will travel to the Western Balkans for meetings with the presidents and prime ministers of Montenegro, Serbia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina regarding further integration with the European Union, including stronger trade ties.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will travel to Estonia for meetings with Estonian President Alar Karis and Prime Minister Kristen Michal. The next day, he will meet with Minister of Foreign Affairs Margus Tsahkna and then visit the Tapa Army Base, where he will address the troops together with the President of Estonia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in a panel discussion about "The future of cross-border payments: faster safer together – safe and inclusive fast payments across borders" during the IMF/WB Annual Meetings in Washington, D.C.  Lagarde will also be interviewed by Bloomberg Television's Francine Lacqua at the IMF.

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will give the keynote address at the Bloomberg Global Regulatory Forum in New York.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives the keynote speech at the annual SCION Day 2024 organized by ETH (Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule) in Zürich, Switzerland.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane will give a speech at the Central Banking Seminar of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in New York. He then will give a speech at Colombia University.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in a panel discussion at the Bloomberg's Global Regulatory Forum in New York.

·       European Union New Car Registrations (September)

·       Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing (September)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (August)

·       Poland Retail Sales (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (September)/ Deposit Interest Rate (October)/ Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (August)

Wednesday, October 23, 2024 

Global

·       G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bankers will meet in Washington, D.C. on the sidelines of the IMF/World Bank meetings.

·       G20 Trade and Investment Ministers will meet in Brasilia, Brazil through October 25.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA) followed by consultations. In the afternoon, there will be a briefing on the Middle East followed by consultations (Syria).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman to give opening remarks on second day of the Eighth Annual Fintech Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to speak on "Recognizing the Impact of Community Colleges" before the 2024 Virginia Education and Workforce Conference.

·       USA MBA Purchase Index (October/18)/ Existing Home Sales (September)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/18)/ Fed Beige Book

·       Mexico Retail Sales (August)

·       Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision/ BoC Monetary Policy Report/ BoC Press Conference to follow.

·       Argentina Economic Activity (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (September)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ New Car Sales (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a speech at an "Atlantic Council Front Page" event in Washington, D.C.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in panel "CBDC, cross border payments and the future of money in a deglobalized world" at 'Bretton woods in a new world' conference organized by Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee in Washington, D.C.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in conversation session at 2024 IIF Annual Membership Meeting "Thriving in turbulence: Sustaining growth in a new economic landscape" in Washington, D.C,

·        Turkey Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (October)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Poland M3 Money Supply (September)

·       Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash (October)

·       Russia Industrial Production (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (September)/ Total Credit Growth (September)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (September)/ Private Bank Lending (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (September)

Thursday, October 24, 2024

Global

·      The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on women and peace and security.

·      G20 Anti-Corruption Ministers will meet in Natal, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Montserrat holds legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack to give welcome remarks before the “Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2024" event hosted by the Center for Inflation Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the European Central Bank.

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (October)/ Federal Tax Revenues (September)

·       Chile PPI (September)

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (October)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (September)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (September)/ Initial Jobless Claims (October/19)/ / S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)/ New Home Sales (September)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/18)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing & Composite Index (October)/ 15 & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/23)/ Building Permits Final (September)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/23)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Adv Q3

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (October/19)/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)

·       Singapore URA Property Index Final Q3

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (September)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (September)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (September)/ M2 Money Supply (September)

·       China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Denmark hosts North Sea Cooperation ministers meeting in   The Cooperative consists of Denmark, Belgium, the Netherlands, France, Germany, Norway, Ireland, Luxembourg and the European Commission. Great Britain participates as an observer.

·       The European Court of Justice will rule on Intel's fight against a once-record €1.06 billion EU antitrust fine for rebates to laptop makers.

·       The EU’s Conference of Presidents (EP President Metsola and political group leaders) will decide on the winner of the 2024 Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought. The three shortlisted candidates are (in alphabetical order): Dr Gubad Ibadoghlu, academic and anti-corruption activist in Azerbaijan; María Corina Machado, as leader of the democratic forces in Venezuela and President-elect Edmundo González Urrutia; and "Women Wage Peace" and "Women of the Sun", Israel/Palestine.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will be a panelist at the G30 39th Annual International Banking Seminar hosted by the Inter-American Bank in Washington, D.C.  Later, Bailey will give the Mike Gill Memorial Lecture at the CFTC in Washington.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul  participates  in panel discussion at the 2024 IIF Annual Membership Meeting in Washington D.C.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives remarks at a conference entitled "Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics" organized by ECB and FED Cleveland Fed in Cleveland, Ohio.

·       France Business Confidence (October)/ Business Climate Indicator (October)/ HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)/ CBI Business Optimism Index Q4/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (October)

·       Turkey MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/18)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Friday, October 25, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Semafor holds its World Economy Summit in Washington through October 25.  Among the speakers will be Amos Hochstein, President Biden’s Special Advisor on Energy Security and other senior Administration officials.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (October)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Budget Balance (August)

·       USA Durable Goods Orders (September)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (October)/ Michigan Current Conditions Final (October)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/25)

·       Paraguay PPI (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Japan Tokyo CPI (October)/ Coincident Index Final (August)/ Leading Economic Index Final (August)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Prel Q3/ Industrial Production (September)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (August)/ Leading Index (August)

·       Hong Kong Business Confidence Q4

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (October 18)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will visit India through October 27. Accompanying Scholz will be a large number of German CEOs seeking new investment opportunities with India.  The German government recently released a white paper entitled “Focus on India” which seeks to lay the groundwork for a stronger partnership with India. Additionally, discussions between Scholz and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will focus on greater defense cooperation.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives a re-recorded speech at a conference entitled "EU Banking Regulation at a Turning Point" organized by Universitá degli Studi di Roma Tor Vergata.

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (October)/ CBI Distributive Trades (October)

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (September)

·       France Consumer Confidence (October)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (September)/ Jobseekers Total (September)

·       Spain Unemployment Rate Q3/ PPI (September)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (October)/ Capacity Utilization (October)

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies & Households (September)/ M3 Money Supply (September)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (October)/ Ifo Current Conditions (October)/ Ifo Expectations (October)

·       Italy Business Confidence (October)/ Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (October)/ Tourist Arrivals (September)

·       Greece Total Credit (September)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (October)

Saturday, October 26, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan General Elections

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Georgia will hold parliamentary elections.  Much like the elections earlier in the week in Moldova, significant Russian efforts to interfere and influence in the elections are expected.  The elections are expected to be decisive in determining if Georgia moves toward possible EU integration or rejects integration for a tighter alliance with Russia. The ruling Georgian Dream Party has accused Western entities of attempting to destabilize the country, while the opposition and Western allies argue that the government is undermining democratic principles. If Georgian Dream wins, it has vowed to ban the main opposition parties, leading to fears of democratic backsliding, while a victory for the opposition could restore Georgia’s pro-Western course.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 27, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Uruguay holds presidential and parliamentary elections. However, the elections are being marred by a controversial $23 billion proposal to overhaul the social security system. If approved, the measure would increase minimum payouts, lower the retirement age and transfer privately managed savings to a government-run trust in what advocates see as a way to share the nation’s resources more equally.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan holds snap elections for its the House of Representatives. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party  (LDP) is at risk of losing its majority in the lower house, which would mean the LDP would have to rely on a coalition partnership with the Komeito Party– which is currently does to hold power in the upper house.  The LDP needs to win 233 seats for an outright majority.

·       Uzbekistan holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Lithuania holds the second round of parliamentary elections.

·       Bulgaria will hold snap parliamentary elections. This is the third attempt to form a government since June and the sixth snap elections held in the country since 2021.

·       Liechtenstein holds a vote on a referendum on the privatization of Radio Lichtenstein.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

The Tense Wait for Israel’s Military Response to Iran’s Attack Continues, the European Council Gathers on Ukraine and Middle East Policy, Biden Goes to Germany, and the ECB Meets on Rates

October 13 - 20, 2024

With less than a month until the US elections, the world tensely awaits Israel's promised military response to Iran's recent missile attack as Israeli military forces continue to intensify their attacks on Hezbollah forces in Southern Lebanon.  It remains unclear if Israel will attack Iranian nuclear facilities or oil production and shipping facilities or, military sites, or critical infrastructure facilities – or some variation of all of these. 

The situation in the Middle East and Ukraine will be the focus of EU leaders this week as the European Council meets in Brussels.  Of note, the leaders will discuss and debate further military aid to Ukraine and allowing Ukraine to use NATO/EU weapons to strike Russian positions and troops inside Russia – something Russian President Vladimir Putin has angrily threatened the West would be seen as a significant escalation crossing one of his "red lines." 

The EU leaders will also discuss the recently released competitiveness reports written by former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi and how best to implement the report's sweeping recommendations.  They will also discuss ongoing trade tensions with China.

Later in the week, President Biden will visit Germany for meetings with German Chancellor Scholz.  Biden was scheduled to visit last week but had to cancel due to Hurricane Milton hitting Florida. 

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, markets are preparing for the IMF/World Bank meetings beginning on October 21st.  Until then, markets are focused on US retail sales and industrial production figures released this week as indicators of where the Federal Reserve will go with rates when it meets in November. 

Moving to Asia, markets remain intensely focused on China following the extraordinary efforts to stabilize the economy.  Beijing releases inflation figures and important trade balance numbers this week.  Elsewhere, Japan releases CPI figures.

In Europe, the European Central Bank meets on interest rates, and markets anticipate a 25-basis point cut.  The UK releases inflation data, and Germany sees the release of the ZEW survey, which will better clarify how the country's economy is doing in the face of a spate of negative data.

Below are the other major political and economic events we are watching this coming week:

Sunday, October 13, 2024

Global

·       The World Health Summit begins in Berlin.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Biden was scheduled to travel to Angola for meetings through October 15 with Angolan President João Lourenço to discuss increased trade and climate collaboration. However, the trip was cancelled due to Hurricane Herman hitting Florida.

·       The XVI Conference of Defense Ministers of the Americas takes through October 16 I Mendoza, Argentina.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China PPI (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ New Yuan Loans (September)/ M2 Money Supply (September)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (September)/ Total Social Financing (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Lithuania holds legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi meets with senior Iraqi leaders in Baghdad.  Araghchi has been traveling throughout the region this past week meeting with leaders in Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE in an effort to gather support and in advance of an expected Israeli attack on Iran.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 14, 2024

Global

·      OPEC releases its monthly report. 

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to meet for consultations on 1559 report (regarding the security situation in Lebanon).

·       The Nobel Prize for Economics winner is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canada celebrates Thanksgiving.  Financial markets are closed.

·       Today is Columbus Day in the US. Stock markets remain open while bond markets and some banks observe the day and are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller speaks on the economic outlook before the "A 50-Year Retrospective on The Shadow Open Market Committee and Its Role in Monetary Policy" conference hosted by Stanford University.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in panel discussion at the Central Bank of Argentina's Money and Banking Conference:" Fiscal Deficits, Monetary Policy and Inflation” in Argentina.  Later, he participates in lecture/fireside chat," The Current State of U.S. Monetary Policy," hosted by the Department of Economics at Torcuato di Tella University in Buenos Aires.

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (August)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (August)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Premier Li Qiang will visit Vietnam through October 14 and sign a railway deal. It is the first official visit to Vietnam by a Chinese premier in 11 years.

·       U.S. and Philippine military forces will participate in the Sama Sama 2024 and Kamandag 8 drills through October 24.

·       Malaysia's parliament will convene and likely pass the Mufti Bill, which would empower religious figures to make edicts without parliamentary oversight.

·       Today is Health and Sports Day in Japan.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (September)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (September)

·       Singapore GDP Growth Rate Adv Q3

·       India WPI Food Index (September)/ WPI Fuel (September)/ WPI Inflation (September)/ WPI Manufacturing (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

·       South Korea Export Prices (September)/ Import Prices (September)

·       China Vehicle Sales (September)/ PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Foreign Minister Foreign Secretary Lammy travels to Beijing and Shanghai, China for meetings.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will visit Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE) and then he will travel to Germany. At SHAPE, Rutte will meet with Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), General Christopher Cavoli, and other senior officers. In the afternoon, NATO Secretary General will travel to Wiesbaden, where he will meet the German Minister of Defence, Boris Pistorius, and visit the site of NATO’s Security Assistance and Training – Ukraine (NSATU) command.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council will meet in Luxembourg. Ministers will discuss the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East.

·       The EU Environment Council will meet in Luxembourg.  The agenda includes approving the conclusions on preparations for the COP29 Meetings, the UN Convention on Biodiversity, and the Global Plastics Treaty.

·       NATO holds “Steadfast Noon” nuclear preparedness drills in the North Sea.

·       The 10th Annual Berlin Process Summit takes place in Berlin, Germany.  The event brings together representatives from Western Balkans and EU countries.

·       The EU-Kazakhstan Cooperation Council meets in Luxembourg.  The meeting will focus on It will then exchange views on political, economic and trade matters and cooperation (including internal reforms, rule of law and human rights, efforts to address sanction circumvention, cooperation facility, critical raw materials and sustainable connectivity). The delegations will also touch on regional and international developments and cooperation, Global Gateway Team Europe Initiatives and security.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The UK International Investment Summit, hosted by the UK Government, takes place in London. The aim of the Summit is to show “the UK is the best place in the world to do business.”  However, the summit comes two weeks before Prime Minister Keir Starmer releases his new budget, which is expected to call for significantly higher taxes on corporations and wealthy individuals.  On Thursday, P&O Ferries – which was prepared to roll-out a $1.4 billion port expansion in the UK as the showpiece of the conference, announced they were pulling out of the deal after Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner and Transport Minister Louise Haigh called the firm “rogue operators” and were boycotting using the firm.

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Swati Dhingra will speak on a panel at the Reserve Bank of India’s 90th Anniversary High-Level Conference in New Delhi, India.

·       Ireland Construction PMI (September)

·       Romania Industrial Production (August)/ Current Account (August)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (September)

·       Great Britain BoE Dhingra Speech

·       Poland Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account (August)

·       Turkey Auto Production (September)/ Auto Sales (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Nigerian Economic Summit will be held in Abuja. Nigeria’s finance minister Wale Edun and central bank governor Yemi Cardoso will be among the speakers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

Tuesday, October 15, 2024

Global

·       The G7 Tech and Digital Ministers meet in Cernobbio, Italy.

·        The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Yemen). In the afternoon, it is scheduled to hold a briefing on Colombia followed by consultations

·       The World Trade Organization (WTO) General Council meets in Geneva, Switzerland

·       The OECD’s Forum on Green Finance and Investment 2024 takes place in Paris, France.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler gives remarks virtually entitled “Career Opportunities and Diversity in Economics” at the Exploring Careers in Economics event hosted by the Federal Reserve.

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly speaks and participates in moderated conversation at event hosted by the New York University Stern School of Business in New York.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to participate in moderated conversation on the economic outlook and impact on small business with the Gathering Spot.

·       Canada Inflation Rate (September)/ CPI Median (September)/ Wholesale Sales Final (August)

·       USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (October)/ Redbook (October/12)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)/ NOPA Crush Report

·       Colombia Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Shanghai Cooperation Organization meets in Islamabad, Pakistan.  The agenda will focus on combating terrorism, enhancing security cooperation among states, and promoting economic collaboration through trade and investment initiatives.

·       Japanese political parties officially kick off campaigning in advance of the October 27 general election. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Japan Capacity Utilization (August)/ Industrial Production Final (August)/ BoJ Adachi Speech

·       India Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Kazakhstan GDP (September)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Services PMI (September)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (October/15)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU General Affairs Council will meet in Luxembourg.  Ministers will discuss EU-Swiss relations, and the fight against antisemitism.

·       The EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council (Energy) will meet in Luxembourg.  They will discuss energy prices, and the state of the energy union and REPowerEU.

·       The Second Accession Conference with Albania will meet in Luxembourg.

·        

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (September)/ ZEW Current Conditions (October)

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (August)/ Employment Change (August)/ Claimant Count Change (September)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (September)

·       Hungary Construction Output (August)/ Industrial Production Final (August)

·       France Inflation Rate Final (September)/ IEA Oil Market Report

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (September)

·       Spain Inflation Rate Final (September)

·       Euro Area ECB Bank Lending Survey/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (October)/ Industrial Production (August)

·       Poland Inflation Rate Final (September)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (August)

·       Serbia Building Permits (August)

·       Turkey Budget Balance (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q2/ Inflation Rate (September)

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (September)/ Wholesale Prices (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Africa Cyber Defense Forum, organized by the African Telecommunications Union, will take place in Kigali, Rwanda.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (August)/ SACCI Business Confidence (September)

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

Wednesday, October 16, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to meet for consultations on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO). In the afternoon, there will be a TCC meeting on United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA).

·       The International Energy Agency (IEA) releases its World Energy Outlook 2024 Report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (October/11)/ Export Prices (September)/ Import Prices (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/11)

·       Canada Housing Starts (September)/ Manufacturing Sales Final (August)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Hong Kong’s Chief Executive John Lee will deliver his 3rd annual policy address.  Lee is expected to focus on the economy after further curbing dissent earlier this year with the imposition of a local national security law known as Article 23.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Seiji Adachi gives a speech to business leaders in Kagawa, Japan.

·       New Zealand Inflation Rate Q3

·       Australia RBA Hunter Speech/ Westpac Leading Index (September)

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Japan Machinery Orders (August)

·       Philippines Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Remittances (August)

·       Thailand Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (October)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate (October)

·       India M3 Money Supply (October/04)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU-Gulf Cooperation Council Summit is held in Brussels. The summit will be co-chaired by the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, and the Emir of Qatar, H.H. Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, as the rotating President of the GCC.  The summit is an opportunity for the EU to develop a closer partnership with the GCC and its member states (the United Arab Emirates, the Kingdom of Bahrain, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the Sultanate of Oman, the State of Qatar, and the State of Kuwait).

·       The 76th Frankfurt Book Fair takes place through October 20 in Frankfurt, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a speech at the official dinner of Banka Slovenije in Ljubljana, Slovenia.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives a speech at Bocconi University in Milan, Italy.

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (September)/ PPI Input & Output (September)/ Retail Price Index (September)

·       Italy Inflation Rate Final (September)

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (August)

·       Euro Area ECB Buch Speech/ ECB President Lagarde Speech/ European Council

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (September)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (September)

·       Russia PPI (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Kenya’s Senate will debate whether to dismiss Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua after the National Assembly voted to impeach him. Gachagua has denied all 11 charges against him, which include enriching himself and stirring ethnic hatred.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Retail Sales (August)

Thursday, October 17, 2024

Global

·       G7 Defense Ministers meet in Napoli, Italy. 

·       The BRICS Business Forum and Business Council meets in Moscow, Russia.  Russian President Vladimir Putin will speak at the Forum.

·       IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva will give a speech on the outlook for the global economy and policy priorities in advance of the IMF/World Bank meetings the following week in Washington, D.C.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee gives welcome remarks before the Fifth Annual Exploring Career Pathways in Economics and Related Fields Conference.

·       Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (August)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (October/12)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (October)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (October/05)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (October)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (October)/ Industrial Production (September)/ Capacity Utilization (September)/ Manufacturing Production (September)/ Business Inventories (August)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (October)/ EIA Natural Gas & Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/11)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/16)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (August)/ Foreign Bond Investment (August)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (August)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/16)

·       Brazil Business Confidence (October)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Tertiary Industry Index (August)

·       Australia Employment Change (September)/ RBA Bulletin/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Participation Rate (September)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (September)/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       India Passenger Vehicles Sales (September)

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Council will meet in Brussels.  EU leaders will discuss Ukraine, the Middle East, competitiveness, migration, and general foreign affairs.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU trade ministers through October 18 in Budapest, Hungary. 

·       France and Ukraine will hold a Nuclear Safety Conference in Paris, France.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank meets to discuss and set interest rates.  A press conference will follow.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives speaks via video message on "Supervisory expectations on public cloud usage by European Central Bank (ECB)" at KPMG Cloud Conference 2024 "Profitable Scaling: The Cloud Journey accelerates" in Frankfurt, Germany.  Later, she participates on a panel discussion at the “Financial and Regulatory Outlook Conference 2024: A New Age of Finance” organized by Oliver Wyman in Rome, Italy.

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (August)/ Inflation Rate Final (September)/ CPI Final (September)/ Core Inflation Rate Final (September)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (September)

·       Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (September)

·       Italy Balance of Trade (August)

·       Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing & Lending Rate (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/11)

·       Great Britain BoE Woods Speech

·       Belarus GDP (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Oman M2 Money Supply (August)/ Total Credit (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ M3 Money Supply (September)

Friday, October 18, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is expected to vote on a draft resolution on Haiti sanctions.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Joe Biden will visit Germany.  He had been scheduled to visit last week but had to cancel due to Hurricane Milton.  The previously scheduled visit was going to be a formal state visit – something no US President has enjoyed in over 40 years.  This visit is now being downgraded to a simple one-day visit.  Additionally, there was going to be a meeting of NATO leaders chaired by Biden at Ramstein Air Base to discuss the situation in Ukraine.  That meeting will not be rescheduled for this visit.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives remarks entitled “Decentralized Finance” at the Nineteenth Annual Vienna Macroeconomics Workshop in Vienna, Austria.

·       USA Building Permits Prel (September)/ Housing Starts (September)/ Housing Starts (September)/Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/18)

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (August)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (September)/ Leading Indicator (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The APEC Finance Ministerial Meeting is held in Lima, Peru.

·       ASEAN’s AIPA General Assembly meets in Vientiane.

·       Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will present the annual budget.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (September)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (October/04)/ Deposit Growth (October/04)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/11)

·       Sri Lanka Unemployment Rate Q2

·       Japan Inflation Rate (September)/ Foreign Bond Investment (October/12)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (October/12)

·       China House Price Index (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q3/ NBS Press Conference

·       Malaysia GDP Growth Rate Prel Q3/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Retail Sales (September)/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (September)

·       Euro Area Current Account (August)/ Construction Output (August)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (August)/ Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Italy Construction Output (August)/ Current Account (August)

·       Serbia Current Account (August)

·       Slovakia Current Account (August)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (July) / Balance of Trade (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The IMF’s executive board will meet for the first review of Ethiopia’s $3.4 billion financing program.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (September)/ Building Permits (August)

·       Ghana PPI (September)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (September)

Saturday, October 19, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz meets with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul, Turkey. The two leaders will discuss Ukraine and the Middle East.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 20, 2024

Global

·       The BRICS 1st Climate Congress will be held in Sochi, Russia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indonesia’s new president, Prabowa Sunianto, will be sworn into office. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (September)

·       China FDI (YTD) (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Moldova holds presidential elections and a vote on a constitutional referendum on EU integration. There are substantial fears Russia will seek to disrupt the elections in an attempt to block a yes vote on joining the EU.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iraq holds regional elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

The Sad Anniversary of Hamas’ Murderous Assault on Israel,  Biden Travels to Germany and Angola, US Supreme Court Begins its Autumn Term, and Germany’s Foreign Minister to Travel to China

October 6 - 13, 2024

Monday is the one-year anniversary of Hamas' surprise attack on Israel, killing more than 1,200 people and taking hundreds more hostage, changing the security situation in the greater Middle East and leading to war in Gaza and now in Lebanon against Hezbollah.  Markets are now bracing for an Israeli retaliatory strike on Iran after Iran attacked Israel with another rocket attack this past week.  The biggest question is whether Israel will attack Iran's nuclear facilities.  Will be sending updates as the situation progresses this week.

Also this week, President Joe Biden will travel to Germany for a US president's first official state visit in almost four decades.  While in Germany, Biden will chair a meeting of NATO state leaders to discuss the situation in Ukraine and likely address the issue of whether Ukraine will be allowed to use NATO-supplied weapons to proactively attack Russian targets inside Russia – something which Moscow has said would be a dramatic provocation.  Russian President Vladimir Putin has – again – suggested the use of nuclear weapons.  Still, most experts we have spoken to do not believe he will use them and instead ramp up asymmetric attacks on Western targets, impacting market operations (e.g., cyberattacks, cutting critical communication cables, etc.).

Biden will travel from Germany to Angola.  He is following up on a promise he made to African leaders in 2022 that he would visit Africa and seek to shore up relations with the continent.

Elsewhere in the world, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is expected to travel to China this week to discuss the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East.  She is also expected to discuss the EU's ongoing deliberations to effectively block Chinese Electric Vehicles (EVs) from being imported to China – a hot-button issue between China and the EU.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, Markets are looking at the US September CPI figures released this week after the surprise uptick in employment numbers last week.  Additionally, the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee meeting minutes and the Michigan consumer survey for October are out this week.

In Europe, the European Central Bank's meeting minutes are also being released this week.  The UK releases GDP numbers, while Germany releases factory orders, industrial production, and trade figures—all closely watched to see if Germany is beginning to pull out of its economic doldrums.  France will present its 2025 budget this week, which will be important as the fragile political coalition could be impacted. 

This week in Asia, China returns from its week-long Golden Week holiday, and the country's stock exchanges reopen.  It also releases CPOI and PPI figures. Japan releases its Monthly Labor Survey, Economy Watchers Survey, and PPI figures—all important figures to watch as Japan prepares for snap parliamentary elections on October 27. 

Below is what else we are tracking around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, October 6, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil holds local elections, including for Mayor of Sao Paulo.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Kazakhstan, a referendum on the construction of a nuclear power plant (NPP) will be held. Opinion polling indicates that the most likely scenario will be a vote in favor of constructing the plant. If approved, it will help Kazakhstan's domestic electricity supply challenges and reduce its dependence on both fossil fuels and electricity imports from abroad.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Industrial Production (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (September)/ Foreign Direct Investment (September)

·       Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       London is bracing for a large protest in support of Palestinians.

·       Bosnia and Herzegovina will hold local elections.

·       In Italy, Matteo Salvini's League holds an annual meeting in Pontida.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Tunisia will hold a presidential election.  President Kais Saied will almost certainly win as opposition parties are boycotting the election.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Monday, October 7, 2024 

Global

·       Today is the one-year anniversary of Hamas’ assault on Israel, murdering more than 1,200 people and the taking of hundreds of civilian hostages, many of whom have been subsequently murdered.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Supreme Court begins its fall session. They will hear cases dealing with online pornography, transgender rights, and nuclear waste storage.

·       A Colombian Court will hear evidence against ex-president Alvaro Uribe on bribery and fraud charges.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman will speak at the Independent Bankers Association of Texas (IBAT) Annual Convention in San Antonio, Texas.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Bank Holding Company Association (BHCA) Fall Seminar.

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy and participates in moderated conversation before the Money Marketeers of New York University Inc.

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Colombia Exports (August)/ Inflation Rate (September)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (September)

·       USA Consumer Credit Change (August)/ Used Car Prices (September)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·    Leaders of the ASEAN bloc meet for a three-day summit in the Laotian capital, Vientiane, to discuss economic and security issues. Japan's newly appointed prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, also joins the meeting to talk about East Asia's role in the Southeast Asian club of 10 nations.  More than 1,000 CEOs and senior executives along with world leaders will attend.

. Pakistan is bracing for nationwide protests to mark the one-year anniversary of the start of the Israel-Hamas conflict. The anti-Israel demonstrations are being held by the Muslim-majority nation's major Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami.

·       South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol visits Southeast Asia, stopping in the Philippines and Singapore. In the city-state, he is slated to attend a business forum highlighting economic cooperation and is also expected to speak on issues including Korean unification at a separate lecture.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (September)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (September)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Japan Coincident Index Prel (August)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (August)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Philippines Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is expected to visit China for meetings.  She is expected to discuss the ongoing EU deliberations on EV tariffs and the situation in Ukraine and the Mideast.

·       The Eurogroup meets in Luxembourg.  They are scheduled to discuss a recovery plan for Europe, the situation in Ukraine, EU energy policy, and the upcoming G20 finance ministers and central bank governors, climate finance, tax policy, and pending legislative proposals dealing with digital finance and capital markets union.

·       The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Council of Foreign Ministers will meet in Moscow. 

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a speech at the Deutsche Bundesbank's symposium, "Future of payments: trends and innovations in Germany and Europe," in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane will give a keynote at the ECB Conference on Monetary Policy: bridging science and practice in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Germany Factory Orders (August)

·       Romania Retail Sales (August)

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (September)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (September)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Prel (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       France Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (August)

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Euro Area Retail Sales (August)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ Vehicle Sales (September)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (September)

·       Jordan GDP Growth Rate Q2/ PPI (August)

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The African Oil Week conference will kick off in Cape Town, South Africa.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Tuesday, October 8, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Great Lakes region, followed by consultations.

·       The United Nations Human Rights Council will meet to discuss Honduras and Haiti.

·       The IMF releases its World Economic Outlook.

·       The United Nations International Conference on Victims of Terrorism co-organized by the United Nations Office of Counter-Terrorism (UNOCT) and the Kingdom of Spain will take place on 8 and 9 October 2024 at Palacio de Congresos Europa in Vitoria-Gasteiz, Spain.

·       The 7th Vienna Energy Security Dialogue takes place in Vienna, Austria.

·       BRICS Senior Health officials will meet in Moscow through October 9 in advance of the BRICS Health Ministers this week.

·       The 11th Meeting of Heads of BRICS Intellectual Property Agencies meets in Moscow through October 9.

·       The BRICS Think Tank Network for Finance Conference will be held in Moscow (in person and via video).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Latin American and Caribbean Competition Forum begins in Santa Domingo, The Dominican Republic.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson will give a speech on “The Discount Window: 1913-2000” at Davidson, College, Davidson, North Carolina.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler will give a speech on Global Inflation at the European Central Bank Conference on Monetary Policy 2024, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic gives remarks and participates in moderated conversation on the economic outlook before the Atlanta consular corps luncheon.

·       Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins speaks before the 23rd annual Regional & Community Bankers Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (September)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Redbook (October/05) / RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (October)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/04)

·       Chile Inflation Rate (September)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Brazil Car Production (September)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (August)

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Regional election results are scheduled in India's northern Jammu and Kashmir region. They were the first polls in the former state -- now a federally-governed territory -- in about a decade and came five years after Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government scrapped its special autonomy status.

·       China’s stock exchange reopens after a weeklong holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (August)

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (August)/ Household Spending (August)/ Overtime Pay (August)/ Current Account (August)

·       Australia NAB Business Confidence (September)/ RBA Meeting Minutes/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (September)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (August)/ Industrial Production (August)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU’s Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  Theya re expected to discuss a recovery plan for Europe, the situation in Ukraine, EU energy policy, and the upcoming G20 finance ministers and central bank governors, climate finance, tax policy, and pending legislative proposals dealing with digital finance and capital markets union.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will meet with Finland’s President, Alexander Stubb, in Brussels.

·       The European Parliament will debate the state of Georgia’s declining democracy, Russian attempts to interfere in Moldova’s presidential elections and the situation in Sudan with EU foreign policy chief Borrell. Resolutions on Georgia and Moldova will be put to a vote on Wednesday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will chair the keynote session at the ECB Conference on Monetary Policy: bridging science and practice in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul will give the keynote speech and participate in a fireside chat at the S&P Global Ratings European Financial Institutions Conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (September)

·       Germany Industrial Production (August)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account (August)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (August)

·       Hungary Budget Balance (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kenya Interest Rate Decision

·       Mozambique Presidential Election

Wednesday, October 9, 2024 

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) followed by consultations. 

·       G7 Health Ministers meet through October 11 in Ancona, Italy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook will give remarks on “Entrepreneurship and Innovation” at the Women for Women Summit presented by the College of Charleston School of Business, Charleston, South Carolina.

·       The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank’s Payments Symposium will be held Chicago. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Richmond Fed President, and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Meister are scheduled to speak.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic gives welcome remarks before the Greater Atlanta Home Builders Association monthly meeting.

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan speaks on the current state of the economy before the Future of Global Energy Conference presented by Shell USA, Inc. and co-hosted by the Greater Houston Partnership.

·       Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins speaks before the Worcester Regional Research Bureau 39th Annual Meeting.

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in moderated conversation on monetary policy and the economic outlook at Boise State University.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (October/04) /Wholesale Inventories (August)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/04) / / FOMC Minutes released

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (September)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (September)

·       Peru Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Leaders of the ASEAN bloc meet for a three-day summit in the Laotian capital, Vientiane, to discuss economic and security issues. Japan's newly appointed prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, also joins the meeting to talk about East Asia's role in the Southeast Asian club of 10 nations.

·       Japan will formally dissolve its lower house ahead of snap elections to be held on Oct. 27, when newly elected Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) look to strengthen their numbers in parliament. Ishiba was elected LDP leader -- and became the country's newest prime minister -- as Fumio Kishida opted not to vie for another term in Japan's top job.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (October)

·       New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (August)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (September)

·       India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio

·       Kazakhstan PPI (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU employment, social policy, and health ministers in Budapest, Hungary through October 10.

• UK onservative MPs start voting to determine the final two candidates vying to become the party’s next leader, after Rishi Sunak announced his resignation in the wake of the party’s heavy general election defeat. The outcome is announced tomorrow. Party members will then vote on these two options

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will participate in a session entitled "The true cost of greening the world" at IUCN Leaders Forum 2024 "Harnessing innovation, enabling conversation" in Geneva, Switzerland.

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (August)

·       Ireland Industrial Production (August)

·       Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       France New Car Registrations (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Interest Rate Decision/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mozambique holds presidential and parliamentary elections. Daniel Chapo is the presidential candidate for the governing Liberation Front of Mozambique (Frelimo) and is highly likely to be elected president.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (September)

Thursday, October 10, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to have a private meeting on Somalia, and in the afternoon a TCC meeting on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO).

·       The G7 holds a Ministerial meeting on Industry and Technological Innovation in Rome, Italy.

·       The 4th Meeting of BRICS Deputy Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors takes place through October 11 in Moscow.

·       The 14th Meeting of BRICS Health Ministers will take place through October 11 in Moscow.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Biden will travel to Germany for the first state visit of a US president in four decades.  He will meet with Chancellor Olaf Scholz and President Frank-Walter Steinmeier.  Additionally, Biden will lead a summit on the Ukraine War at the US airbase in Ramstein.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin participates in fireside chat,"2025 Economic Outlook and Beyond" before the Virginia Maritime Association 2024 International Trade Symposium.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives remarks and participates in a moderated discussion on the economic outlook and monetary policy before event organized by Binghamton University.

·       USA Inflation Rate (September)/ CPI (September)/ Initial Jobless Claims (October/05) / EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/04)/ 15 & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/09)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October)/9

·       Mexico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (September)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

·       Brazil Retail Sales (August)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwan celebrates its National Day, with new President Lai Ching-te due to mark the occasion with a speech. With tensions with China at very tense levels, comments being made in Taipei will be closely watched.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Bank Lending (September)/ Foreign Bond Investment (October/05)/ PPI (September)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (October/05)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (September)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (October)/ Private House Approvals MoM Final (August)/ Building Permits MoM Final (August)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Malaysia Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (September)/ Car Sales (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU Justice and Home Affairs Council ministers will meet in Luxembourg through October 11.  They will discuss fighting child sexual abuse, Schengen, EU law enforcement IT systems, asylum and migration, and internal security.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Ms. Maia Sandu, President of Moldova, regarding joining the EU.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (September)

·       Romania Balance of Trade (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (September)

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (August)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Participation Rate (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/04)

·       Italy Industrial Production (August)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (August)

·       Greece Inflation Rate (September)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (September)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

·       Euro Area ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (September)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (August)/ Mining Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (September)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (September)

Friday, October 11, 2024

Global

·       The Nobel Peace Prize winner is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank’s Community Bankers Symposium will be held in Chicago.  Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will speak along with Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman will give remarks on community banking at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Community Bankers Symposium (Virtual).

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee gives opening remarks before the 18th Annual Community Bankers Symposium, “Community Banking: Navigating a Change Landscape" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan participates in panel before the Federal Home Loan Bank of Dallas Women in Financial Services Conference.

·       Mexico Industrial Production (August)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (September)/ Participation Rate (September)/ BoC Business Outlook Survey

·       USA PPI (September)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (October)/ Michigan Current Conditions Prel (October)/ WASDE Report/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/11)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Macao will hold a leadership election with just one candidate, former top court president Sam Hou-fai. Only the roughly 400 pro-Beijing members of an election committee are allowed to vote. Sam recently described the development of the casino industry, which powers Macao's economy, as "disorderly" and "barbaric.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (September)/ Food Inflation (September)/ Visitor Arrivals (August)

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (October)/ Machine Tool Orders (September)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (July)

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/04)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)

·       China Vehicle Sales (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Inflation Rate Final (September)/ Current Account (August)

·       Romania Inflation Rate (September)

·       Great Britain Goods Trade Balance (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Construction Output (August)/ GDP (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (September)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (August)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Turkey Current Account (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (September)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account Q3/ Inflation Rate (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Oman M2 Money Supply (August)/ Total Credit (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (August)/ SACCI Business Confidence (September)

·       Angola Inflation Rate (September)

Saturday, October 12, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Spain: National Day, aka Dia de la Hispanidad, commemorating the day in 1492 when Christopher Columbus caught sight of the New World. Includes annual military parade in Madrid.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 13, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Biden travels to Angola for meetings through October 15 with Angolan President João Lourenço to discuss increased trade and climate collaboration.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China PPI (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ New Yuan Loans (September)/ M2 Money Supply (September)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (September)/ Total Social Financing (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Lithuania holds legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Hezbollah’s Leader Nasrallah is Dead, Leaving Markets and World Leaders Asking: What Happens Now?  The US Vice Presidential Candidates Debate As U.S. Dockworkers Prepare To Go On Strike, And Mexico Inaugurates A New President

September 29 - October 5, 2024

With the confirmation of the death of Hezbollah's Hassan Nasrallah, markets and world leaders are asking the question: What happens next?  The risk of war between Israel and Hezbollah and possibly Iran has reached dangerous new levels.  Nasrallah's death is a massive blow to Iran's power and prestige in the Middle East, and it is unclear if or how Iran could retaliate.  The only clear thing is Israel is determined to cripple Hezbollah's military threat to Israel permanently, as we saw over the weekend as Israeli airstrikes continued to pound Hezbollah positions. 

 Meanwhile, in the United States this coming week, Vice Presidential candidates Senator J.D. Vance (R-OH) and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz will debate on Tuesday.  This will happen as the International Longshoreman's Association is expected to go on strike on both coasts, shutting down 36 major ports just as imports ramp up to meet Christmas shopping demand.  The union and port owners have been stalemated over a new contract for over a year.

Elsewhere in the Americas, Mexico will hold the historic inauguration of Claudia Sheinbaum as the country's new—and first female—president.  Succeeding President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), she is expected to continue pursuing his controversial populist agenda, which includes the recent much-criticized reform of the national judiciary and possibly a ramp-up of nationalization of foreign-owned assets in the country.

In Asia, Japan's parliament will formally vote to approve a new Prime Minister—former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba—to succeed Fumio Kishida.  The significance of this transition is that Ishiba is a strong military defense hawk who advocates a significant ramp-up of Japan's military and military as well as the creation of an “Asian NATO” – which would mean stationing Japanese troops in other countries, including the US.  He has also advocated legislation that would allow women to become reigning empresses, something opposed by many of his fellow Liberal Democratic Party lawmakers.

 On the global economic radar screen this coming week, markets will be looking closely at the US jobs report, ISM indicators, and JOLTS reports for signs of where unemployment is going.   Additionally, Fed Chair Jay Powell will give an important speech on the economic outlook.

In Europe, German and Italian CPI figures will be a significant focus of the markets.  Markets are also listening for European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's remarks before a European Parliament Committee hearing this week.

In Asia, the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) summary of opinions will be released, as well as the BoJ's Tankan Survey and labor market figures.  China celebrates the 75th Anniversary of the establishment of the People's Republic of China and the beginning of the Golden Week holidays, which run through October 7. It also releases on Monday much-watched manufacturing PMIs.

Here is what else we are tracking in the week ahead:

Sunday, September 29, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Austria holds Parliamentary elections. 183 seats of the National Council and lower house of parliament are up.  The far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) is currently polling at 26%, and the center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP), led by incumbent Chancellor Karl Nehammer, with 25%. The Social Democratic Party (SPÖ) is close behind with 21% (which means no single party will likely secure a majority, forcing a coalition government).

·       Ukraine observes the 83rd anniversary of Babyn Yar, the two-day slaughter of more than 30,000 Jews in Kyiv by the Nazis.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (August)/ Private Bank Lending (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 30, 2024

Global

·       The UN General Assembly concludes today. A list of the final national leaders speaking can be found at UN Journal.         

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to Haiti [mandate of the Multinational Security Support Mission (MSSM)]. Soon after, the Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo sanctions. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the maintenance of international peace and security.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       El Salvadorian President Bukele will be meeting with Argentine President Javier Milei in Buenos Aires.  The two conservative leaders are expected to discuss AI investment and other tech issues.

·       The US Congress is out of session until November.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to speak before the National Association for Business Economics 66th Annual Meeting, "Finding Harmony in the Noise: Transitioning to a New Normal" in Nashville, Tennessee.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” at the Georgia Bankers Association President/CEO Conference, Charleston, South Carolina.

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (August)/ Nominal Budget Balance (August)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Chile Copper Production (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       USA Chicago PMI (September)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (September)/ Quarterly Grain Stocks - Corn & Soy & Wheat (September)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (August)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (August)

·       El Salvador Current Account Q2

·       Paraguay Current Account Q2

·       Uruguay Current Account Q2/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Mexico Fiscal Balance (August)

·       Costa Rica Unemployment Rate Q2

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Philippine Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro will give a major speech on South China Sea dispute in Manila, Philippines.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Japan Industrial Production Prel (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Housing Starts (August)/ Construction Orders (August)

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (September)

·       Australia Housing Credit (August)/ Private Sector Credit (August)

·       China NBS Non-Manufacturing/ Manufacturing/ General PMI (September)/ Caixin Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI (September)/ Current Account Final Q2

·       Singapore Import/ Export Prices (August)/ PPI (August)

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (August)

·       Thailand Current Account (August)/ Private Consumption & Investment (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (September)/ PPI (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       India Government Budget Value (August)/ Infrastructure Output (August)/ Current Account Q2/ External Debt Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The trial of Marine Le Pen, 26 others and the RN on suspicion of embezzlement of European public funds in Paris. 

·       The Vaclav Havel Human Rights Prize announced in Strasbourg, France. The finalists are Venezuelan democracy leader María Corina Machada, Azerbaijanian human rights leader Akif Gurbanov, and Georgian human rights leader Babutsa Pataraia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give an introductory statement at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Germany Import Prices (August)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (September)/ Bavaria CPI (September)/ Brandenburg CPI (September)/ Hesse CPI (September)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (September)/ Saxony CPI (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

·       Great Britain Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ Business Investment Final Q2/ BoE Consumer Credit (August)/ Mortgage Lending & Approvals (August)/ M4 Money Supply (August)/ Net Lending to Individuals (August)

·       Hungary PPI (August)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (September)

·       Poland Inflation Rate Prel (September)

·       Spain Current Account (July)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (September)

·       Greece PPI (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Italy Inflation Rate (September)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (August)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (July)/ Current Account (August)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Unemployment Rate Q2

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (August)/ M2 Money Supply (August)/ Private Bank Lending (August)

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The International Court of Justice holds public hearings on a land and maritime dispute between Gabon and Equatorial Guinea.

·       Today is Independence Day in Botswana, celebrating when the country gained its independence from the UK in 1964..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (August)/ Private Sector Credit (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Budget Balance (August)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (September)

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (August)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (September)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (August)

Tuesday, October 1, 2024

Global

·       Switzerland assumes the Chair of the UN Security Council for the month of October.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Claudia Sheinbaum will be sworn in as Mexico’s new President and first woman president.

·       US Vice Presidential candidates J.D. Vance and Tim Walz will take part in an election debate.

·       The International Longshoreman’s Association is expected to begin a strike in more than a dozen major ports along the East and West Coast. 

·       Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will likely face a second non-confidence vote in two weeks.

·       Widespread protests are expected by pensioners I Caracas, Venezuela.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to give welcome and opening remarks before the" Technology-Enabled Disruption: Implications of AI, Big Data, and Remote Work" conference organized by the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Boston and Richmond in Atlanta, Georgia.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech entitled “AI, Big Data, and the Path Ahead for Productivity” at the Conference on “Technology-Enabled Disruption: Implications of AI, Big Data, and Remote Work," Atlanta, Georgia.

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (August)

·       USA Redbook (September28)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (September)/ JOLTs Job Openings (August)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (September)/ Construction Spending (August)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (September)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (September)/ JOLTs Job Quits (August)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (September)/ Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/27)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (September)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (September)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is China’s National Day celebrating the end of dynastic rule and the 75th anniversary of People’s Republic of China.  It is a public holiday and the beginning of its Golden Week which runs through October 7.

·       The ASEAN-Japan Cybersecurity Policy Meeting will begin in Singapore.

·       Japan will formally elect former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba as Prime Minister.

·       The Indian region of Jammu and Kashmir will begin its third phase of voting for assembly elections, and the Indian state of Haryana will hold its assembly elections as well.

·       Today is Independence Day in Tuvalu. The island nation celebrates when it gained its independence from the UK in 1978.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence & Utilization Q3/ Building Permits (August)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (October/01)

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (September)/ Building Permits (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Private House Approvals Prel (August)/ Commodity Prices (September)/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (September)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (August)/ Jobs/applications ratio (August)/ BoJ Summary of Opinions/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (September)

·       South Korea Exports/ Imports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ PPI (August)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (September)

·       Kazakhstan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (September)/ Wholesale Prices (September)/ Balance of Trade (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·        Former Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte takes over from Jens Stoltenberg as NATO secretary general.

·       Ukraine will mark its Defenders Day national holiday.

·       Newly installed French Prime Minister Michel Barnier delivers his first general policy statement to Parliament, including the 2025 budget.

·       Wikileaks founder Julian Assange will address the Council of Europe.

·       Today is Cyprus Independence Day, marking when the nation became independent from the UK in 1960.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives the welcoming speech at the 5th Joint BoC - ECB - NY FED Conference on Expectations Surveys, Central Banks and the Economy in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will chair the keynote lecture at 5th Joint Bank of Canada - ECB – New York FED Conference on Expectations Surveys, Central Banks and the Economy in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Final (July)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (August)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Inflation Rate Flash (September)/ CPI Flash (September)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing

·       Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)/ New Car Sales (September)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Asia Cooperation Dialogue's heads of state meeting will take place in Doha, Qatar, through October 1.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (September)

Wednesday, October 2, 2024

Global

·       G7 Interior Ministers meet in Mirabella Eclano, Italy, through October 4.

·       The Jewish High Holy Days will begin at sundown with the start of Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish new year.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem will give welcome remarks before the Community Banking Research Conference 2024:"Where Research and Policy Meet," co-sponsored by the Federal Reserve System, the Conference of State Bank Supervisors (CSBS) and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation in St. Louis, Missouri.  Later, Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman will give a keynote speech at the conference.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to speak on the national economic outlook before the 2024 WilmingtonBiz Conference and Expo in Wilmington, Delaware.

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (September)/ Industrial Production (August)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/27)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/27)/ ADP Employment Change (September)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (September/27)/ EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (September/27)

·       Mexico Business Confidence (September)/ Gross Fixed Investment (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Colombia Exports (August)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will visit Pakistan through October 4.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Ai Group Industry/ Construction/ Manufacturing Index (September)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index & Outlook Q3/ Tankan Large All Industry Capex Q3/ Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Singapore URA Property Index QoQ Prel Q3/ SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (September)

·       Sri Lanka Current Account Q2

·       India M3 Money Supply (September/20)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen meetings with the President of Georgia, Ms. Salome Zourabichivili in Brussels.  The EU and Georgia have experienced significant disruptions in relations. The EU has threatened to strip Georgians of visa-free access due to backsliding on democracy in the country, and it has frozen chances of Georgia joining the EU.   Later in the day, von der Leyen will meet with British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer in an effort to “reset ties” between the UK and EU.   

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will host meetings with French President Emanual Macron in Berlin.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board member Luis de Guindos will give a speech at the Latvijas Banka's and SUERF Economic Conference, "Financing a Better Future: The Vital Role of Finance in Achieving Sustainable Growth" in Riga, Latvia.  He will then participate on a panel entitled “From Riga to Brussels to Wall Street: Examining the Differences of Financial Architecture.” 

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane will chair a policy panel at the 5th Joint Bank of Canada - ECB - Federal Reserve Bank of New York Conference on Expectations Surveys, Central Banks and the Economy in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will participate on a panel discussion "Banking for Prosperity: Towards Stronger and More Inclusive Growth Through Increased Integration and Competition" at Latvijas Banka's and SUERF Economic Conference "Financing a Better Future: The Vital Role of Finance in Achieving Sustainable Growth" in Riga, Latvia. 

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will participate in webinar organized by the Institute of International & European Affairs in Dublin, Ireland.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will give the Walter Eucken Lecture 2024 at the University of Freiburg in Freiburg, Germany.

·       Romania PPI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (September)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Euro Area Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Italy Unemployment Rate (August)/ New Car Registrations (September)

·       Ireland Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (October)

·       Russia Business Confidence (September)/ Real Wage Growth (July)/ Retail Sales (August)/ GDP (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Guinea, marking when the country gained its freedom from France in 1958.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (September)

·       South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales (September)

Thursday, October 3, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in hybrid "Featuring Frontier Research to Enhance Economic Opportunity and Inclusive Growth" 2024 Research Conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.  Later, Atlanta Federal Reserve Board President Raphael Bostic will participate via video.

·       Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (September/28)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (September)/ ISM Services PMI/ Business/ Employment/ New Orders/ Prices (September)/ Factory Orders (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September/27)/15 & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/02)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/2)/ Total Vehicle Sales (September)

·       Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (September)

·       Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (September)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (September)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Asahi Noguchi gives a speech to a meeting of local business leaders in Nagasaki, Japan.

·       Australia Judo Bank Composite & Services PMI Final (September)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (September/28)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/28)/ Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMI Final (September)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Kazakhstan S&P Global Services PMI (September)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Germany celebrates the Day of German Unity, celebrating the reunification of Germany.  It is a public holiday, and financial markets and banks are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (September)

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (September)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (September)

·       France Budget Balance (August)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (September)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (September)/ PPI (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/27)/ Auto Production (September)/ Auto Sales (September)

·       Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (September)

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (September)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (September)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (September)/ PPI (August)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Iraq Independence Day, marking when the country gained its independence from the UK in 1932.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (September)

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (September)

·       Qatar Financial Centre PMI (September)/ Balance of Trade (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (September)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (September)

·       Ghana S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Tanzania Interest Rate Decision

Friday, October 4, 2024

Global

·       G7 Ministers meet in gender equity and women’s empowerment in Matera, Italy, through October 6.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to give opening remarks before the conference, "The Future of New York City: Focus on Jobs," at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (August)/ Auto Exports (September)/ Auto Production (September)

·       USA Unemployment Rate (September)/ Participation Rate (September)/ Average Weekly Hours (September)/ Manufacturing & Government Payrolls (September)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (October/04)

·       Canada Ivey PMI s.a (September)

·       Brazil Balance of Trade (September)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (September)

·       El Salvador GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Colombia PPI (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Kazakhstan will host the regional ceremony of unveiling the Global Innovation Index 2024 Report. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (September)

·       Australia Home Loans (August)/ Investment Lending for Homes (August)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (September)/ Bank Loan Growth (September/20)/ Deposit Growth (September/20)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/27)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (August)

·       Thailand Business Confidence (September)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Sri Lanka Unemployment Rate Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will give the speech at the 10th Anniversary International Financial Markets Conference organized by Lithuanian Central Bank in Vilnius, Lithuania.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos will give remarks at the anniversary of Radio Intereconomía.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will give the keynote speech followed by panel participation at the  Change in Leadership event by Sustainable Finance Lab in Utrecht, Netherlands.

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill will give a speech at the Institute of Chartered Accounts in England and Wales Annual Conference.

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (August)

·       France Industrial Production (August)/ HCOB Construction PMI (September)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (August)

·       Spain Industrial Production (August)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (September)

·       Germany HCOB Construction PMI (September)/ New Car Registrations (September)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (September)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (September)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (September)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (August)

·       Serbia PPI (September)

·       Romania Interest Rate Decision

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Prel (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Lesotho celebrates Independence Day, marking when the UK granted the nation its independence in 1966.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kenya GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Saturday, October 5, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vanuatu celebrates Constitution Day, celebrating when the nation’s constitution was signed in 1979, paving the way for its independence.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Portugal celebrates Republic Day, celebrating when Portugal’s monarchy was overthrown in 1910.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 6, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil holds local elections, including for Mayor of Sao Paulo.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Kazakhstan, a referendum on the construction of a nuclear power plant (NPP) will be held. Opinion polling indicates that the most likely scenario will be a vote in favor of constructing the plant. If approved, it will help Kazakhstan domestic electricity supply challenges and reduce its dependence on both fossil fuels and electricity imports from abroad.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Industrial Production (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (September)/ Foreign Direct Investment (September)

·       Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       London is bracing for a large protest in support of Palestinians.

·       Bosnia and Herzegovina will hold local elections.

·       In Italy, Matteo Salvini's League holds annual meeting in Pontida.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Tunisia will hold a presidential election.  President Kais Saied will almost certainly win as opposition parties are boycotting the election.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.