The Global Week Ahead

August 25 - September 1, 2024

In Focus: Still Holding Out Hope for a Gaza Cease Fire; US National Security Advisor Sullivan Heads to China for High-Level Talks; Mexico’s Judges Protest Against Sweeping Reforms, and Inflation Data Released Before the Federal Reserve’s Next Meeting

Summer comes to an end this week, and we are all bracing for an extremely busy Autumn in the US and around the world.  The tense situation in the Middle East will continue to dominate the attention of markets this week, especially after Israel’s massive preemptive strike this weekend on Hezbollah forces in southern Lebanon.  The strike is the biggest military action so far this year between Israeli Defense Forces and Hezbollah forces.  More than 100 Israeli fighter jets struck sites across the region, reportedly destroying a number of missile sites – estimated to be more than 40 sites – that were reportedly preparing to strike Tel Aviv and other urban centers in Israel. 

Yet, despite this significant uptick in fighting, negotiators are set to meet in Cairo this week, and the Qatari Prime Minister travels to Tehran for talks. Additionally, US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Charles Q. Brown, Jr., is traveling to Israel to ensure defense preparations against further Iranian or Iranian-affiliated attacks, emphasizing the US’ determination to discourage any attacks that could derail negotiations.

It seems some sort of cease-fire deal has been within reach for months now, but sources tell us this time, it is closer than ever.  We would note Iran has continued to hold off striking back at Israel following the assassination of a senior Hamas official who was visiting Tehran and the killing of a senior Hezbollah commander last month, actions Iranian officials swore to retaliate for. 

Meanwhile, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will travel to Beijing this week for meetings with senior Chinese diplomat Wang Yi.  The purpose of the meeting is to discuss ways to improve dialogue between Washington and Beijing, how to further incapacitate the fentanyl trade coming out of China, and surely discussions about China’s support for Russia’s war against Ukraine.  While Sullivan has had increasingly regular talks with Wang over the last two years, this is the first time he has visited Beijing for such meetings – and the first time a U.S. National Security Advisor has traveled to Beijing since 2016 when then-National Security Advisor Susan Rice went at the direction of President Barrack Obama.

This will be a big week in Mexico – the United States’ largest trading partner – as the country’s judiciary begins massive protests against a highly controversial “reform” effort by Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) to push through legislation requiring all judges be elected by popular vote instead of being appointed.  The worry is this will make the judiciary highly politicized and also allow drug cartels to have an even greater ability to control the legal system.  And it has foreign investors deeply worried about what it could do to commercial law in the country.  AMLO’s proposal has been endorsed by his successor, Claudia Sheinbaum, who is set to be sworn in as Mexico’s new president in October.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, markets are looking at US PCE and CPI prints this week – the last ones to come out before the Federal Reserve meets to discuss – and, as Fed Chair Jay Powell indicated in a speech in Jackson Hole Friday – begin lowering interest rates.  Additionally, the Conference Board releases the closely watched Consumer Confidence Index this week.

In Asia, it is a big week for economic reports.  Japan releases its August CPI figures, labor market numbers, and industrial production numbers.  China sets its 1-year MLF rate (along with a flood of Chinese corporate earnings), and Australia releases its August CPI.

Turning to Europe, CPI numbers will be out for the Eurozone, Germany, France, Spain, and Italy this week.  Germany and France also release consumer confidence reports, giving investors a deeper sense of whether the two economic engines of Europe are getting back on track or will continue sputtering.

Here is what else we are watching closely around the world this coming week:

Sunday, August 25, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Mexican judicial workers – including judges – will rally in Mexico City to protest sweeping government-sponsored judicial reforms.  The proposals, being pushed through by President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, have come under heavy criticism not only inside Mexico but from abroad.  Both the US Ambassador to Mexico, Ken Salazar, called the reforms a “major risk to democracy.”  The Canadian Ambassador to Mexico, Graham Clark, said, “My investors are concerned, they want stability, they want a judicial system that works if there are problems.”

·       In Argentina, unionized pilots flying for Aerolineas Argentinas will strike and stage demonstrations at Argentina's commercial airports through August 30. 

·       Today is Uruguay Independence Day, marking the day in 1828 when the country gained its independence from Portugal.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Day of Songun, a national holiday in North Korea.  The day celebrating the start of the military-first rule in the nation under the leadership of Kim Jong-Il in 1948.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in panel discussion at The Rimini Meeting 2024 "Se non siamo alla ricerca dell'essenziale, allora cosa cerchiamo?" in Rimini, Italy.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Shiite Arbaeen pilgrimage, which commemorates the martyrdom of Imam Hussein, will take place in Karbala, Iraq.  It is considered one of the world’s largest public gatherings.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs hosts the Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD) Ministerial Meeting.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, August 26, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh meets with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan in Washington, DC.  Singh will also chair a high-level roundtable with defense industry executives regarding ongoing and future defense collaborations.

·       The 10th Annual AmeriGEO Conference, hosted by Ecuador’s Secretariat for Risk Management and Military Geographic Institute, takes place in Quito, Ecuador.  The conference, which will be attended by senior government official from throughout the Hemisphere seeks to “brings together diverse communities and builds connections, fostering collaboration among national, regional, and international efforts in integrated Earth and social science research.’

·        

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence AUG/ Current Account JUL/ Foreign Direct Investment JUL/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada Wholesale Sales MoM Prel JUL

·       USA Durable Goods Orders MoM JUL/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index AUG

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 53rd Pacific Islands Forum Leaders meeting takes place in Tonga.  UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will speak.  The main topics are expected to be climate change and ongoing tensions between China and the US.

·       The US and Indonesia hold Garuda Shield, a military exercise in Indonesia.

·       Today is National Heroes Day in the Philippines, honoring all those who died for the independence of the country.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade JUL

·       Singapore Industrial Production YoY JUL

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi travels to the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant in Russia.   Grossi is traveling to inspect the plant following Russian drone attacks last week which damaged the facility.  Russian President Vladimir Putin has accused Ukraine of attacking the plant but evidence suggests it was actually Russian drones that hit the plant.

·       French President Emmanuel Macron will meet the leaders of the far-right National Rally party alongside the leader of the center-right Les Republicains party, Eric Ciotti, as part of ongoing government formation consultations. 

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris.

·       Today is the late Summer Bank Holiday in the UK.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence AUG

·       Hungary Gross Wage YoY JUN

·       Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls Q2

·       Spain PPI YoY JUL

·       Turkey Business Confidence AUG/ Capacity Utilization AUG

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate AUG/ Ifo Current Conditions AUG/ Ifo Expectations AUG

·       Poland Unemployment Rate JUL

·       Slovenia Business Confidence AUG

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani is expected to travel to Tehran, Iran for meeting with senior Iranian officials regarding the state of negotiations over Gaza as well as the looming threat of an attack by Iran on Israel.  Qatar and Egypt along with the US have acted as mediators in efforts to secure a ceasefire in Gaza to end the 10-month long war.  Talks are expected resume later this week between representatives of Hamas and Israel either in Cairo or in Qatar.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate YoY JUL

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply YoY JUL

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI JUN/ Manufacturing PMI JUL

·       Kuwait Private Bank Lending YoY JUL

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate YoY Q2

Tuesday, August 27, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will travel to Beijing.  He will meet with top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi to discuss a range of issue ranging from Taiwan to US-China military talks and fentanyl.  This is the first visit by a US National Security Advisor to China since 2016.

·       SpaceX will attempt the first ever private spacewalk.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI YoY AUG

·       Mexico Balance of Trade JUL

·       USA Redbook YoY AUG/24/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY JUN/ House Price Index JUN/ CB Consumer Confidence AUG/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index AUG/ Dallas Fed Services Index AUG/ NY Fed Treasury Purchases 22.5 to 30 yrs/ Money Supply JUL/ API Crude Oil Stock Change AUG/23

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) YoY JUL

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence AUG

·       Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment AUG

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade JUL

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez begins a multi-day visits Mauritania, Gambia and Senegal.

·       Today is Independence Day in Moldova, marking when the country gained its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q2

·       Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades AUG

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate AUG/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Spain Consumer Confidence JUL

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The US-Africa Nuclear Energy Summit takes place in Nairobi, Kenya.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate MoM AUG

Wednesday, August 28, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Syria).

·       The 2024 Summer Paralympics begin in Paris and run through September 8.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Chilean government authorities will attend the "Chile Summit India 2024" in New Delhi and Mumbai through August 30.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on payments at the Global Fintech Festival 2024, Mumbai, India.

·      USA MBA Mortgage Market Index AUG/23/ MBA Purchase Index AUG/23/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change AUG/23

·      Uruguay Unemployment Rate JUL

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Monthly CPI Indicator JUL/ Construction Work Done QoQ Q2

·       Philippines Budget Balance JUL

·       Malaysia PPI YoY JUL

·       Japan Coincident Index Final JUN/ Leading Economic Index Final JUN

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer visits Germany for meetings with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz his first visit to Germany since being elected Prime Minister.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence SEP

·       France Consumer Confidence AUG/ Unemployment Benefit Claims JUL/ Jobseekers Total JUL

·       Slovakia Business & Consumer Confidence AUG

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final JUL

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies & Households YoY JUL/ M3 Money Supply YoY JUL

·       Italy Industrial Sales YoY JUN

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index AUG

·       Slovenia Retail Sales YoY JUL

·       Greece Total Credit YoY JUL

·       Russia Unemployment Rate JUL/ Business Confidence AUG/ Corporate Profits JUN/ Industrial Production YoY JUL/ Real Wage Growth YoY JUN/ Retail Sales YoY JUL/ GDP YoY JUL

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Interest Rate Decision

·       Qatar GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply YoY JUL/ Private Bank Lending YoY JUL

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, August 29, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution to extend the mandate of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), followed by consultations on the 1718 Committee.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US and Argentina sign a memorandum of understanding for the export of critical minerals to the US.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to give "Introduction to the Federal Reserve and an Economic Outlook" presentation before a Georgia Tech Scheller College of Business Management of Financial Institutions class in Atlanta, Georgia.

·      Brazil IGP-M Inflation MoM AUG/ Bank Lending MoM JUL/ PPI YoY JUL/ Net Payrolls JUL

·      Canada Current Account Q2/ Average Weekly Earnings YoY JUN

·      USA GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est Q2/ Corporate Profits QoQ Prel Q2/ GDP Price Index QoQ 2nd Est Q2/ Goods Trade Balance Adv JUL/ Initial Jobless Claims AUG/24/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv JUL/ Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv JUL/ Core PCE Prices QoQ 2nd Est Q2/ PCE Prices QoQ 2nd Est Q2/ Real Consumer Spending QoQ 2nd Est Q2/ Pending Home Sales YoY JUL/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change AUG/23/ Fed Balance Sheet AUG/28

·      Chile Unemployment Rate JUL

·      Colombia Business Confidence JUL

·      Argentina Consumer Confidence AUG

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment AUG/24/ Stock Investment by Foreigners AUG/24

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence AUG

·       Australia Building Capital Expenditure QoQ Q2/ Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure QoQ Q2/ Private Capital Expenditure QoQ Q2

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade AUG/ Industrial Production YoY AUG/ Inflation Rate YoY AUG/ Retail Sales YoY AUG/ Tourist Arrivals YoY AUG

·       Singapore Export Prices YoY JUL/ Import Prices YoY JUL/ PPI YoY JUL

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU Foreign Affairs Ministers will hold an informal meeting in Brussels.

·       French President Emmanuel Macron visits Serbia for meetings with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic.  They will discuss ways to broaden economic ties but also Artificial Intelligence.  Serbia is chairing the Global Partnership on Artificial Intelligence – an initiative set up by Macron and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

·       Today is the deadline for nominations to be submitted for EU Commissioners.

·       Today is the anniversary of the Slovak National Uprising, marking the day in 1944 when the people of Slovakia rose up against Nazi rule.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane will participate on a panel entitled "Inflation – Challenges for Policymakers and Researchers" organized by Brandeis University/CEBRA at annual Central Bank Research Association meeting organized with the Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE and Deutsche Bundesbank in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Great Britain Car Production YoY JUL

·       European Union New Car Registrations YoY JUL

·       Spain Inflation Rate YoY Prel AUG/ Business Confidence AUG

·       Turkey Economic Confidence Index AUG/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves AUG/23

·       Germany Baden Wuerttemberg CPI YoY AUG/ Bavaria CPI YoY AUG/ Brandenburg CPI YoY AUG/ Hesse CPI YoY AUG/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI YoY AUG/ Saxony CPI YoY AUG/ Inflation Rate YoY Prel AUG

·       Poland GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q2

·       Euro Area Economic Sentiment AUG/ Consumer Confidence Final AUG/ Consumer Inflation Expectations AUG/ Industrial Sentiment AUG/ Selling Price Expectations AUG/ Services Sentiment AUG

·       Greece Unemployment Rate JUL

·       Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate YoY Prel AUG/ Wholesale Prices YoY JUL

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey will host Iraqi, Qatari and Emirati officials for a Development Road Summit in Istanbul.  The estimated $20 billion project aims connect Iraq’s Basra port on the Persian Gulf to Turkey and beyond.  The UAE and Qatar are potential investors in the project.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Balance of Trade JUL

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI YoY JUL

Friday, August 30, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer AUG/ GDP Growth Rate Annualized Q2/ GDP MoM JUN/ Budget Balance JUN

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP JUL/ Nominal Budget Balance JUL/ Unemployment Rate JUL

·       USA PCE Price Index YoY JUL/ Personal Income & Spending JUL/ Chicago PMI AUG/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Expectations Final AUG

·       Chile Copper Production YoY JUL/ Industrial Production YoY JUL/ Manufacturing Production YoY JUL/ Retail Sales YoY JUL

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate JUL

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade JUL

·       Mexico Fiscal Balance JUL

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Popular Consultation Day in East Timor.  It marks the day when the country held a referendum in 1999 to let the people of East Timor choose between greater autonomy in Indonesia or separation.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence AUG/ Building Permits MoM JUL

·       South Korea Industrial Production YoY JUL/ Retail Sales MoM JUL

·       Japan Unemployment Rate JUL/ Tokyo CPI AUG/ Retail Sales YoY JUL/ Industrial Production YoY JUL/ Consumer Confidence AUG/ Housing Starts YoY JUL/ Construction Orders YoY JUL

·       Philippines PPI YoY JUL

·       Australia Housing Credit MoM JUL/ Retail Sales MoM JUL/ Private Sector Credit YoY JUL

·       Singapore Bank Lending JUL

·       Thailand Industrial Production YoY JUL/ Current Account JUL/ Private Consumption & Investment JUL/ Retail Sales YoY JUN

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply YoY JUL

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales YoY JUL

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate YoY AUG/ PPI YoY JUL/ Balance of Trade JUL

·       India Government Budget Value JUL/ Foreign Exchange Reserves AUG/23/ Infrastructure Output YoY JUL/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Q2

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence AUG

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU Defense Ministers will hold an informal meeting in Brussels.

·       Members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization will conduct weeks-long military exercises in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to maintain regional stability amid threats emanating from Afghanistan. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a lecture at Ragnar Nurkse Lecture Series organized by Bank of Estonia in Tallinn, Estonia.

·       European Central Bank Board member Kerstin af Jochnick participates on a panel at the joint European Banking Authority & European Central Bank international conference on Supervisory Cooperation in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       France Private Non-Farm Payrolls QoQ Final Q2/ Inflation Rate YoY Prel AUG/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q2/ Household Consumption MoM JUL/ PPI YoY JUL

·       Germany Retail Sales YoY MAY/ Import Prices YoY JUL/ Unemployed Persons/ Change/ Rate AUG

·       Romania Unemployment Rate JUL

·       Hungary PPI YoY JUL

·       Spain Retail Sales YoY JUL/ Current Account JUN

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators AUG

·       Italy Unemployment Rate JUL/ Inflation Rate Prel AUG/ Business & Consumer Confidence AUG

·       Poland Inflation Rate YoY Prel AUG

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate YoY AUG

·       Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit JUL/ Mortgage Approvals & Lending JUL/ M4 Money Supply MoM JUL/ Net Lending to Individuals MoM JUL

·       Euro Area Inflation Rate Flash AUG/ Unemployment Rate JUL/ CPI Flash AUG

·       Greece PPI YoY JUL/ Retail Sales YoY JUN

·       Ireland Retail Sales YoY JUL

·       Serbia Balance of Trade JUL/ Industrial Production YoY JUL/ Retail Sales YoY JUL/ Unemployment Rate Q2

·       Ukraine Current Account JUL

·       Russia M2 Money Supply YoY JUL

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Turkey Victory Day, marking the day in 1922 when Turkish military forces defeated the Greeks at the Battle of Dumlupinar. Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·    A special session of the African Ministerial Conference on the Environment and the UN Convention to Combat Desertification will be held in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply YoY JUL/ Private Sector Credit YoY JUL/ Balance of Trade JUL/ Budget Balance JUL

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves AUG

·       Kenya Inflation Rate YoY AUG

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply YoY JUL

Saturday, August 31, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Trinidad and Tobago Independence Day, celebrating when the country gained its independence from Britain in 1962.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Niue, an island country in free association with New Zealand, holds a constitutional referendum which will change the head of government from a Premier to a Prime Minister, extend the term length of members of the assembly from three to four years, increase the size of the cabinet from four to six members, and make the Auditor-General of New Zealand as the country’s official auditor.

·       Today is Kyrgyzstan Independence Day, marking the day the country declared independence from the Soviet Union in 1992.

·       Today is Malaysia Independence Day, marking the day the country gained its independence from Britain in 1957.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China NBS Non- & Manufacturing PMI AUG/ NBS General PMI AUG

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 1, 2024

Global

·       Slovenia assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of September.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador gives an annual speech on the executive branch’s accomplishments, similar to a state of the nation address.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·    Indonesia hosts the 2nd Annual Indonesia-Africa Forum in Bali.  Indonesian President Joko Widodo and more than 30 African leaders will meet for three days to discuss how to deepen political and economic ties and build stronger supply chains and healthcare systems.

·       Azerbaijan holds parliamentary elections.

·       Today is Uzbekistan Independence Day, celebrating when the country was able to declare its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

·       Today is Constitution Day in Kazakhstan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade AUG

·       Australia CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM AUG

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Germany, state elections will be held in Saxony and Thuringia.

·       Czechia will hold regional elections and the election of one-third of the Senate.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Washington Slowly Creeps Back to Work

August 26 - 30, 2024

For much of the US, schools are back in session, and most folks have wrapped up their summer holidays.  But in Washington, next week is the last week of summer holidays. Which means it will still be mostly quiet around town and at the regulatory agencies.  The only regulatory activity we can find is the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) holding an open meeting and the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) holding an administrative court hearing about horse racing.  But as the last week showed, Washington is slowly getting back to work and getting revved up for a busy fall.

Perhaps the significant event last week was not in Washington but in Texas, where a federal judge blocked the FTC’s sweeping ban on noncompete agreements.  The ruling slammed the FTC, saying, “In sum, the Rule is based on inconsistent and flawed empirical evidence, fails to consider the positive benefits of non-compete agreements, and disregards the substantial body of evidence supporting these agreements.”   The FTC is likely to appeal the ruling, but it does not look good that the FTC will ultimately succeed – as most observers predicted when the FTC first launched into this effort.

Meanwhile, the FDIC announced the hiring of a former federal prosecutor to oversee the agency’s efforts to root out the toxic workplace culture exposed in an independent report earlier this year.  Carrie Cohen, who currently is the co-chair of the investigations and white-collar practice at the law firm of Morrison Foerster and is a former Assistant District Attorney in the Southern District of New York, was hired by the board.  Her hiring triggered a new round of Congressional Republicans to demand the immediate resignation of current FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg (who continues to refuse to resign until a replacement is confirmed by the Senate – which probably won’t happen until 2025).

Finally, we saw Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr speak about the constant battle banks and regulators are waging against cyberattacks and technology failures.  Barr said such attacks are increasingly growing as threats: “There is a lot of work to do.  It is a constant process, a constant battle as the technology changes.”

We expect the week of September 1st (Labor Day) we will see a significant pick up of events.  Until then, enjoy the relative quiet!  Below is the listing of events among regulators in the coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

·       The Senate is out of session for the month of August and returns to work on September 9.

House of Representatives

·       The House is out of session for the month of August and returns to work on September 9.

US Regulatory and Administrative Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

• Wednesday, August 28, 1:15 a.m. EST – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on payments at the Global Fintech Festival 2024, Mumbai, India.

• Thursday, August 29, 2:30 p.m. CT – Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to give an "Introduction to the Federal Reserve and an Economic Outlook" presentation before a Georgia Tech Scheller College of Business Management of Financial Institutions class.

U.S. Treasury Department

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• Wednesday, August 28, 10:00 a.m. – The SEC will hold an Open Meeting.  They will consider adopting amendments to reporting requirements on Forms N-PORT and N-CEN.

• Thursday, August 29, 2:00 p.m. – the SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• Thursday, August 29, 9:30 a.m. – The Federal Trade Commission holds an evidentiary hearing before an Administrative Law Judge on Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority.

Farm Credit Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Think Tanks and Other Events

• Monday, August 26, 2:00 p.m. – The Urban Institute holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 2 p.m., on "Identifying Solutions to Address Wealth Inequities: A Conversation with Government, Business, and Nonprofit Leaders.

• Tuesday, August 27, 2:00 p.m. – The Bipartisan Policy Center holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 2 p.m., on "Reforming the HCV (Housing Choice Voucher) Program Through Direct Rental Assistance."

• Wednesday, August 28, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 9 a.m., on "The Bank-Sovereign Nexus in Developing and Emerging Economies."

• Thursday, August 29, 12:30 p.m. – The Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 12:30 p.m., on "Understanding the Regulatory Landscape for Private Fund Advisers."

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reads

The Ongoing Crisis in Venezuela, Demographic Challenges Globally, and How is the Inflation Reduction Act Working Out?

August 23 - 25, 2024

Please find below our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week.  We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

The Crisis in Venezuela

• A Question of Staying Power  Center for Strategic and International Studies

  In response to protests against its brazen election theft, the Maduro regime in Venezuela has unleashed a wave of violent repression. While the exact numbers vary, credible human rights organizations have logged nearly 2,000 arrests, some even of minors and young children, and more than two dozen people killed. Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro bragged that more than 2,200 arrests had been made and that prisons repurposed to house new political prisoners would feature “reeducation” and “hard labor” camps.  Meanwhile, reports from low-income barrios around Caracas convey that regime intelligence services have marked homes of protestors with a black “X.” Rather than hiding repression, the regime has launched a public campaign called Operación Tun Tun (Operation Knock Knock) meant to instill maximum fear by arbitrarily knocking on doors. The regime has filmed security forces breaking into protestors’ homes and arresting them and openly publicized videos of arbitrary arrests—one of them set to the popular Christmas song “Carol of The Bells.”

• Venezuela: Possible Paths Forward  Americas Quarterly Podcast

  Since the election on July 28, Nicolás Maduro has unleashed a wave of repression not seen in Venezuela before. The question on everyone’s mind is, what now? Will Venezuela move further down the path of a dictatorship, or is there some chance of a negotiated solution that might lead to a democratic transition? In this episode, Roberto Patiño, a civil society leader and a member of one of the opposition parties, discusses the opposition’s strategies, evaluates the positions taken by Brazil, Colombia, the U.S., and Mexico, and describes what he sees as cracks in the Maduro regime.

  U.S. Elections 2024

• Beliefs About Political News in the Run-up to an Election  Charles Angelucci, Michel Gutman, and Andreas Prat/National Bureau of Economic Research

  The closer we get to the election, the more we hear about “fake news” and a lack of neutrality in the media.  From where we sit, there is definitely something to it – the question we have is how much of is intentionally slanted due to reporters’ personal political viewpoints filtering into the story or just poor reporting. But what about the reader’s role?  In this new study, three economists developed a model to look at the influence of elections on the formation of “partisan-driven information universes.”  The study shows a partisan impact on the news during election periods.  Outside of the election season, an individual is 4 percent more likely to choose a true story if it favors their party; in the days prior to the election?  This increases to 11 percent.

Global Demographic Trends

• Europe’s Demographic Winter and the New EU fiscal Rules VOX EU/Center for Economic Policy Research

  The EU recently settled on a revision of its fiscal rules replacing a system increasingly seen as “one size fits all” when it came to debt sustainability analysis for EU members.  While this might make a lot of sense, this paper argues that many EU member states are facing a sustained demographic decline now and in the years to come, a careful assessment of the uncertainty surrounding population projections is needed.

• Korea faces income losses within half a century without more labor migration  Peterson Institute for International Economics

  South Korea is facing a social and economic crisis caused by its rapidly aging population.   Today, South Korea is the second oldest nation in the world with 40 percent of its population being 65 years old or older.  For years, South Korea had highly restrictive immigration policies.  But in the early 2000’s the country began opening the door to immigration to offset the loss of workers.  But it is not enough as the below chart indicates, as Korean income losses per citizen due to aging is expected to decline by 10 percent within 18 years. The only way to avoid this projection (that only get worse in outlying years) to ramp immigration – a true social and cultural challenge to this ancient society.   And it should be noted: Italy, Germany, Spain, and China are not far behind South Korea in facing this demographic catastrophe.

 Geoeconomics and Industrial Policy 

• “Shadow Reserves”: China’s Key to Parry U.S. Financial Sanctions   War on the Rocks

  As the U.S. and China continue to spar over financial and trade issues, Beijing has found a way to insulate their strategic trade away from dollar-based sanctions.  China’s central bank has steadily shed its official U.S. dollar reserve holdings – which means, if China were to decide to invade or blockade Taiwan, the U.S.’ ability to impose financial sanctions on China will be diminished.  But it is not complete – far from it: only a third of China’s goods trade are settled in renminbi.

• Attracting CHIPS Investment: Industry Recommendations for Policymakers  Semiconductor Industry Association

  Chips are integral to the 21st century economy, from electric vehicles, AI data centers, and medical technologies to mobile devices, energy grids, and streaming platforms. Historically, semiconductor supply chain production activities have concentrated in a handful of regions. But as global chips demand increases, and the industry responds to geopolitical uncertainty and other disruptions, companies are diversifying their global investment footprint to improve supply chain resilience.  In our new SIA-BCG report, Attracting Chips Investment: Industry Recommendations for Policymakers, we recommend policy actions governments can undertake to better attract investment based on the following five key factors that semiconductor companies evaluate when making investment decisions.

• Clean Investment Monitor: Tallying the Two-year Impact of the inflation Reduction Act  Rhodium Group/MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research

  As the United States approaches the two-year anniversary of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), this report provides a comprehensive analysis of actual investments in clean technologies and infrastructure since its enactment.  From the second half of 2022 through the first half of this year, actual business and consumer investment totaled $493 billion, a 71% increase from the two-year period preceding the legislation. This report includes a detailed state-level breakdown of clean investment in the post-IRA period.

The Global Week Ahead

Could There Finally Be A Ceasefire in Gaza?  Indian Prime Minister Modi Makes a Historic Visit to Ukraine, and Central Bankers Gather in Jackson Hole

August 18 - 25, 2024

The situation in the Middle East will continue to dominate the geopolitical outlook this week as negotiations seeking a ceasefire in Gaza, and the release of hostages held by Hamas appear to have gotten closer to an agreement.  US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will travel to the region again this week – his ninth trip there this year – hoping to clinch a deal.  But ongoing fighting between Hezbollah forces and Israeli forces intensified over the weekend and risks escalating into a far larger regional fight.

Meanwhile,  the Democratic National Convention begins in Chicago.  As many as 50,000 people are expected to participate.  But the party nomination of Vice President Kamala Harris may be marred by widespread protests by activists opposed to the Biden Administration’s supportive policy for Israel in Gaza.

This coming week will mark a  historic first: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to visit Kyiv, Ukraine to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.  Modi is seeking to play a role in helping to broker a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, an effort that has been publicly encouraged by the US.  Modi will also visit Poland, the first time an Indian Prime Minister has visited the nation in 40 years.

Another important diplomatic trip this week is Vietnam’s new leader, To Lam, making his first official visit to China and his first overseas visit as President.  He will meet with President Xi Jinping, where the two leaders will likely finalize an important railroad deal and discuss ongoing tensions between the two nations over disputed territory in the South China Sea.  Vietnam has been stepping up its international diplomatic and trade efforts this year, upgrading ties with the US, Japan, and India.  But Vietnam also hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin in June, raising eyebrows in Tokyo, Washington, and Brussels.

Turning to the global markets and major economic events this coming week, markets will be laser-focused on Jackson Hole, Wyoming where the annual Kansas City Federal Reserve Conference will feature most of the leading international central bank chiefs.  Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell will give a much-anticipated speech Friday and markets will be hoping for further indications of interest rate cuts being made at the next Federal Open Markets Committee meeting in September.

Also this week, both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will be releasing minutes from their last interest rate meetings.   The ECB will also be releasing their consumer expectations survey on Friday. 

This week’s other important releases this week include PPIs out of Germany, the UK, and Eurozone,  while Japan releases CPI and July trade balance figures.  Also of note in Japan this week, the Japanese Parliament (Diet) will hold a joint Lower House and Upper House Financial Affairs Committee hearing featuring Bank of Japan Governor Kajuo Ueda and Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki to discuss the Bank’s rate increase in July and what it might mean for Japan’s economy longer term.

Below is what else we are watching closely this coming week:

Sunday, August 18, 2024

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnam’s new President and Communist Party Chief To Lam will visit China for meetings with President Xi Jinping.  During the three-day visit, Lam is expected seek Xi’s support for his country’s rial projects as well as discuss ongoing disputes with China over the South China Sea.

·       In Singapore, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong delivers the annual National Day Rally

speech, his inaugural address after taking office on May 15. He is Singapore’s fourth prime

minister and his becoming Prime Minister is the nation’s first leadership change in 20 years.  He is expected to focus on plans to expand the social safety net in the country.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Azerbaijan for talks with President Ilham Aliyev on how to improve the two nation’s strategic relationship.   The two leaders are also expected to discuss the fragile settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan following a 44-day war in 2020. But the major issue for Putin is to secure the Russian gas supplies to Azerbaijan. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 1st Est Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The 44th Ordinary Summit of the Southern African Development Community Heads of State and Government meets in in Harare, Zimbabwe.  The theme of the conference is “Promoting Innovation to unlock opportunities for sustained economic growth and development towards an Industrialised SADC”.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, August 19, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).   

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will return to the Middle East in a bid to finalize a cease-fire agreement in Gaza and the release of hostages held by Hamas.  Blinken will mee with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and then may travel to Cairo, Egypt and Doha, Qatar in a bid to finalize the deal.

·       The US Democratic Party Presidential Convention begins in Chicago, Illinois and runs through August 22.

·       Today is San Martin Day in Argentina, a national holiday.  Markets are closed.  But Unionized pilots flying for Aerolineas Argentinas are expected to strike and stage demonstrations at Argentina's commercial airports through Aug. 30. 

·       The US Congress continues to be on August recess.  They return to work September 9.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives welcoming remarks at the 2024 Summer Workshop on Money, Banking, Payments, and Finance which is hosted by the Federal Reserve Board in Washington, D.C.

·       Chile Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       USA Fed Waller Speech

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan and India will hold “2+2” talks between Japanese Defense Minister Minoru Kihara, Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa, and Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar and Defense Minister Rajnath Singh in New Delhi.  The two countries are looking to enhance mutual security ties and defense equipment sharing.

·       Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will visit India for talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.  This is the first time Modi and Anwar have met since Anwar became prime minister.  The two are expected to sign a number of trade agreements.

·       The US and South Korea military forces will be conducting training event code-named Ulchi Freedom Shield in South Korea through August 29.  Additionally, South Korean civilians will hold evacuation drills through August 22.

·       Today is Revolution Commemoration Day in Vietnam, marking the day in 1945 when the revolution led by Ho Chi Minh ended Japanese occupation.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (July)

·       Japan Machinery Orders (June)

·       Thailand GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Deutsche Bundesbank, Foundations of Law and Finance, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management and CEPR are co-sponsoring a conference on Regulating Financial Markets in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Spain Balance of Trade (June)/ Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Turkey Auto Production (July)/ Auto Sales (July)

·       Slovakia Unemployment Rate (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (June)/ M2 Money Supply (July)/ Total Credit Growth (June)/ Total Credit Growth (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Kenya Aviation Workers Union have cancelled their plans to begin strike action to denounce an investment by India's Adani Airport Holdings that would see the group manage the operations of Nairobi's Jomo Kenyatta International Airport. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ M3 Money Supply (July)

·       Ghana PPI (July)

Tuesday, August 20, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), as well as Libya sanctions. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Both Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign and former President Donald Trump’s campaign are expected to file financial disclosures with the Federal Election Commission revealing how much money the respective campaigns raised in July.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr participates in a discussion on cybersecurity a the Joint Financial and Banking Information Infrastructure Committee-Financial Services Sector Coordinating Council Meeting being held in Washington, D.C.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to participate in fireside chat before hybrid "Innovating for Inclusion" forum at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

·       Mexico Retail Sales (June)

·       Canada Inflation Rate (July)/ CPI Median (July)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (July)

·       USA Redbook (August/17/API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/16)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The date for the ruling Japanese LDP Leadership elections will be finalized today. (they will be sometime this fall) and will determine who the next prime minister will be.  This comes after current Prime Minister Kishida's announced that he would not run for re-election in September. 

·       Ministers from Japan and its Asian neighbors gather for an Asia Zero Emission Community (AZEC) meeting in Jakarta. AZEC was created by Japan in 2022 to encourage eleven partner countries to further advance carbon neutrality.  The attending nations will discuss ways to develop and spread a range of decarbonization technologies in the energy and transportation sectors. The ministerial meeting is set to be attended by Japan, Australia and members of the 10-nation ASEAN, except Myanmar.

·       The Taiwanese Air Force and Navy will hold live-fire exercises.  The event is expected to disrupt some fishing and commercial shipping off the island’s southeastern coast.

·       The 9th Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD 9) begins in Tokyo, Japan and runs through August 22.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (August)

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (August/20)

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & Loan Prime Rate 5Y (August)

·       Australia RBA Meeting Minutes

·       Taiwan Export Orders (July)/ Current Account Q2

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Union President Ursula von der Leyden delivers a speech at the groundbreaking ceremony for the European Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (ESMC) semiconductor plant – being built by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) in Dresden, Germany.   This is TSMC’s first plant in Europe and a critical component of its plant to build a global production footprint.  The plant, which is expected to cost $10.8 billion to construct, is expected to open in late 2027.  It will further solidify Dresden as a major semiconductor center as the new plant will sit next to Bosch’s semiconductor plant and close to Infineon’s plant (which is currently undergoing a $5 billion expansion).

· Today is National Day in Hungary as well as St. Stephen's Day (the patron saint of Hungary), a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany PPI (July)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (July)

·       Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)

·       Euro Area Current Account (June)/ Inflation Rate Final (July)/ Construction Output (June)/ CPI Final (July)/ Negotiated Wage Growth Q2

·       Italy Current Account (June)

·       Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing Rate (August)/ Overnight Lending Rate (August)/ Central Government Debt (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (July)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The 2nd Namibia Oil and Gas Conference begins in Windhoek, Namibia.  The country has become an oil exploration hotspot after large discoveries in recent years with an estimated 11 billion barrels of light oil and 2.2 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, August 21, 2024

Global

·       UN Secretary-General António Guterres begins series of visits in the Pacific Islands and Asia. First, he will go to Samoa (August 21 – 23) where he will meet with Prime Minister Fiamē Naomi Mataʻafa. His visit will focus on the impacts of climate change in the country. He will then go to New Zealand (August 23- 24), where he will meet with Prime Minister Christopher Luxon. From there, he will go to Tonga from (August 24-27) where he will participate in the Pacific Islands Forum. He is expected to meet with the Prime Minister of Tonga, Mr. Siaosi 'Ofakivahafolau Sovaleni, as well as other leaders attending the Forum. The Secretary-General will then go to Timor-Leste (August 28 -31).  Guterres will then head to Singapore (September 1-2) where he will meet with President Tharman Shanmugaratnam and Prime Minister Wong Lawrence. From there he will head to China (September 2 – 5), where he will meet with President Xi Jinping and participate in the 2024 Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Peacebuilding and sustaining peace: The New Agenda for Peace – Addressing global, regional and national aspects of conflict prevention. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA Purchase Index (August/16)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (August/16)/ FOMC Minutes/

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (July)/ PPI (July)/ Raw Materials Prices (July)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (June)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwan hosts the Ketagalan Security Forum.  Sponsored by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Forum.  Former Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihdo Noa, former US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, and a number of other prominent political figures from around the world will also attend and speak.

·       The World Robot Conference begins in Beijing, China and runs through August 25.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (August)/ PPI (July)

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (July)

·       Indonesia Property Price Index Q2/ Loan Growth (July)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit Facility Rate (August)/ Lending Facility Rate (August)

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (July)

·       Thailand Interest Rate Decision

·       India M3 Money Supply (August/09)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Poland, the first time an Indian Prime Minister has visited in 40 years.  Modi is then expected (but still to be confirmed) to travel on August 23 to Kyiv to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky which would be the first time an Indian Prime Minister has visited the country.

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visits Moldova for talks on mutual security matters and Moldova’s efforts to gain membership to the EU.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Italy Governor Fabio Panetta will give a speech at the Rimini Meeting on Italian debt sustainability and economic development.

·       Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing (July)

·       Greece Current Account (June)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (July)/ Employment Growth (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ PPI (July)

·       Slovenia PPI (July)

·       Russia PPI (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (June)/ Inflation Expectations (August)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (July)

·       Oman Inflation Rate (July)/ M2 Money Supply (June)/ Total Credit (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (July)

Thursday, August 22, 2024

Global

·       The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosts the Jackson Hole Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.   This year’s theme is “Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy.” 

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Teamsters Union has set today as the deadline to reach a new labor agreement with the Canadian National Railway and Pacific Kansas City Rail or go on strike, which would cripple shipping in Canada.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Peru Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Mexico GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ Economic Activity (June)/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (August)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (July)/ Initial Jobless Claims (August/17)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)/ Existing Home Sales (July)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (August/16)/ Kansas Fed Composite/ Manufacturing Index (August)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/21)/ Fed Balance Sheet (August/21)/ Jackson Hole Symposium

·       Argentina Retail Sales (June)

·       Paraguay PPI (July)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Judo Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (August/17)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August/17)/ Jibun Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia Current Account Q2

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (July)

·       India HSBC Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The ECB releases Monetary Policy Meeting minutes

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/16)

·       France HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)

·       Germany HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)/ Consumer Confidence Flash (August)

·       Poland Retail Sales (July)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (August)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (July)

·       Slovakia Current Account (June)

·       Slovenia Unemployment Rate (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (July)/ Composite Economic Index (July)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (July)/ Private Bank Lending (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Friday, August 23, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Argentine President Javier Milei will attend the Mexican chapter of the CPAP Conservative Political Action Conference in Mexico City.  Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has refused to meet with Milei because he is Milei is attending the conference.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell will give a speech on the Economic Outlook at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Jackson Hole Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

·       Canada Retail Sales (June)/ Manufacturing Sales Prel (July)

·       Chile PPI (July)

·       New Home Sales (July)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/23)/ Building Permits Final (July)/ Jackson Hole Symposium

·       Mexico Current Account Q2

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (July)

·       Argentina Leading Indicator (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·      The Japanese Committee on Financial Affairs of the House of Representatives (Lower House) and the Committee on Financial Affairs of the House of Councilors (Upper House) meet with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda and Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki to hear about the Bank’s  July rate hike and expected financial market trends.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Retail Sales Q2

·       Japan Inflation Rate (July)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (July)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (June)/ Leading Index (June)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (July)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)/ M2 Money Supply (July)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (August/09)/ Deposit Growth (August/09)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/16)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanual Macron begins consultations with political leaders about forming a new government and the selection of a new prime minister.  The next parliamentary session begins October 1,  but forming a new government is going to be difficult as the margins between the various political parties is slim. Outgoing Prime Minister Gabriel Attal is serving as a caretaker until a new government is formed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (August)/ CBI Distributive Trades (August)

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (July)

·       France Business Confidence (August)/ Business Climate Indicator (August)

·       Turkey Tourist Arrivals (July)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)

·       Poland M3 Money Supply (July)

·       Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (July)

·       Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q2

Saturday, August 24, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Ukraine Independence Day, making the day in 1991 when it gained its freedom from the Soviet Union.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a panel session "Reassessing the effectiveness and transmission of monetary policy" at Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Economic Policy Symposium 2024 in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, August 25, 2024 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Uruguay Independence Day, marking the day in 1828 when the country gained its independence from Portugal.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Day of Songun, a national holiday in North Korea.  The day celebrates the start of the military-first rule in the nation under the leadership of Kim Jong-Il in 1948.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in panel discussion at The Rimini Meeting 2024 "Se non siamo alla ricerca dell'essenziale, allora cosa cerchiamo?" in Rimini, Italy.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Bonus Week! You Get Your Five Minutes (or more like 4 ½ minutes) Back Again…

August 19 - 23, 2024

Last week we gave you back the five minutes you normally spend reading this report because nothing was going on.  Looking at the financial regulatory week ahead, you get another (or most of) your five minutes back again!  But there are three quick exceptions to this other quiet week we want to flag for you, which are:

1)    the Democratic National Convention is being held this week in Chicago. While we do not expect any specific policy discussions on financial regulation (this is a political convention, after all), there will almost assuredly be shots taken at Wall Street and big banks, the need for caps on rental properties, etc.

2)    The Federal Reserve is back from vacation. There are two Fed governors’ speeches this week – including one by Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr on cybersecurity – and then the commencement of the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium later in the week (and Fed Chair Jay Powell is scheduled to give an economic outlook speech).  The annual gathering of the world’s central bankers, situated in the midst of the gloriously beautiful Colorado Rockies, is almost always solely focused on monetary policy, but every now and then, financial regulatory issues pop up.

3)    The Securities and Exchange Commission is holding an Open Meeting on August 20th to approve new rules adopted by the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB).

That’s it.  The links to the Fed speeches and SEC Open meeting are below.  Now go back to enjoying your summer vacation!

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

• The Senate is out of session for the month of August and returns to work on September 9.

House of Representatives

• The House is out of session for the month of August and returns to work on September 9.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

• Monday, August 19, 9:15 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives welcoming remarks at the 2024 Summer Workshop on Money, Banking, Payments, and Finance which is hosted by the Federal Reserve Board in Washington, D.C.

• Tuesday, August 20, 2:45 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr participates in a discussion on cybersecurity a the Joint Financial and Banking Information Infrastructure Committee-Financial Services Sector Coordinating Council Meeting being held in Washington, D.C.

• Thursday – Saturday, August 22 – 24:  The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosts the Jackson Hole Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.   This year’s theme is “Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy.” 

• Friday, August 23, 10:00 a.m. EST – Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell will give a speech on the Economic Outlook at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Jackson Hole Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

U.S. Treasury Department

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• Tuesday, August 20, 10:00 a.m. – The SEC is holding an Open Meeting on August 20th to approve new rules adopted by the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB).

• Thursday, August 22, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

•  There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events 

Trade Associations

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Think Tanks and Other Events

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reads

August 16 - 18, 2024

Please find below our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week.  We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

Hacking, Deep Fakes, and the 2024 U.S. Elections

• 100 Days Until Election 2024   U.S. Director of National Intelligence

  Already seeing the foreign governments attempting to meddle in the upcoming U.S. elections, The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) issued this unclassified memo explaining how the U.S. intelligence community is monitoring foreign actors trying to influence and disrupt the upcoming elections.  Well worth the read to understand the threat at hand.

• How Foreign Governments Sway Voters with Online Manipulation   Scientific American

  2024 is the year of elections, with more than half the world’s population heading to the polls to vote. More than 100 countries including India, Taiwan, the UK, France, Russia, Venezuela, and soon, the United States, have held are holding national elections.  Most of the elections were free and fair, while others – such as Russia and Venezuela – were rigged, and opposition candidates either arrested or “disappeared.”  But one constant in most of these elections has emerged: Foreign government efforts to interfere and either discourage voters or mislead them with disinformation.  Scientific American Magazine did a deep dive into how malign foreign governments use social media and other mediums to achieve their goals.
  

• Iran Steps into U.S. Election 2024 with Cyber-Enabled Influence Operations Campaign  Microsoft On the Issues

  Two weeks ago, news broke that the Trump campaign had been hacked, and the most likely culprit is Iran.  How is this happening?  In a new report from Microsoft details how foreign countries are seeking to negatively influence the 2024 US election.  As the report details, these malign forces started off slowly in 2024 but have steadily picked up the pace over the last six months. Russia was primarily the initial operator, but more recently, Iran has picked up the pace.  China is not far behind.

Source: Microsoft On the Issues

• Iran using covert influence campaigns to undermine Trump's candidacy, U.S. intelligence says     CNN

  CNN reports how Iran is using covert social media activity and related influence operations in an effort to undercut the candidacy of former President Donald Trump, a US intelligence official said Monday in an updated assessment of threats to the November election.

China

• China’s Imaginary Trade Data   Brad Setser/Council on Foreign Relations “Follow the Money” Blog

  Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow Brad Setser took a deep dive into the IMF’s latest assessment of China.  In the appendix, he found something interesting: China has a new way of calculating its good trade balance - and that calculation is deeply misleading and helps to explain the apparent fall in the current account surplus.  For example, Setser believes the new method understates the current account surplus by $300 billion as of the second quarter of 2024 and that the actual surplus is closer to $700 billion.
  

• China’s Great Wall of Villages   The New York Times

  President Xi calls them “border guardians.”  In this superb interactive report using satellite imagery, the New York Times reports on how the government built twelve new villages in frontier areas claimed by other countries in recent years, the New York Times reported based on satellite images. They are among more than fifty new villages in frontier areas, and while civilian in nature, they provide access points for China’s military. A spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington said regarding border issues, Beijing seeks “fair and reasonable solutions” through peaceful consultation.

Source: New York Times

• Marijuana and Mexican cartels: Inside the stunning rise of Chinese money launderers  NBC News

  Over the past decade, Chinese organized crime groups in the U.S. quietly became the dominant money launderers for Mexican cartels. Then they used the profits to take over the illicit marijuana trade.  Experts worry that the organizations that now dominate money laundering worldwide pose a potential national security threat to the U.S.

Geoeconomics

• Don’t Believe the AI Hype   Daron Acemoglu/Project Syndicate

  Acemoglu, an MIT Economics Professor, writes that if you listen to tech industry leaders, business-sector forecasters, and much of the media, you may believe that recent advances in generative AI will soon bring extraordinary productivity benefits, revolutionizing life as we know it. Yet neither economic theory nor the data support such exuberant forecasts.
  

• Has the Recession Started?    Pascal Michaillat (UC Santa Cruz) and Emmanuel Saez (UC Berkeley)

  Abstract: To answer this question, we develop a new Sahm-type recession indicator that combines vacancy and unemployment data. The indicator is the minimum of the Sahm indicator -  the difference between the 3-month trailing average of the unemployment rate and its minimum over the past 12 months—and a similar indicator constructed with the vacancy rate—the difference between the 3-month trailing average of the vacancy rate and its maximum over the past 12 months. We then propose a two-sided recession rule: When our indicator reaches 0.3pp, a recession may have started; when the indicator reaches 0.8pp, a recession has started for sure. This new rule is triggered earlier than the Sahm rule: on average, it detects recessions 1.4 months after they have started, while the Sahm rule detects them 2.6 months after their start. The new rule also has a better historical track record: it perfectly identifies all recessions since 1930, while the Sahm rule breaks down before 1960. With July 2024 data, our indicator is at 0.5pp, so the probability that the US economy is now in recession is 40%. In fact, the recession may have started as early as March 2024.

The Global Week Ahead

The Three Biggest Events of the Week Are Not on the Calendar: Waiting and Watching in the Middle East, What Happens Next in Venezuela, and how Ukraine’s bold assault across Russia’s border in the Kursk region might change the face of the war.

August 11 - 17, 2024

It is supposed to be a quiet August, with much of the world on holiday. But, while there is not much officially scheduled this coming week, three potentially seismic events are happening this week not on the calendar.

First, Israel (and the rest of the world) continues to wait and watch for an almost assured retaliatory strike from Iran following Israel’s killing of senior Hezbollah leader, Fuad Shukr,  in Lebanon and then Hamas’ political leader, Ismail Hanihey, who was visiting Tehran for the inauguration of Iran’s new President, Masoud Pezeshkian.  Our view is Iran has few options on how to attack Israel without risking causing an immediate and massive escalation potentially leading to an all-out war.  In the midst of all this, negotiations being brokered by Qatar and other nations between Israel and Hamas for a ceasefire and release of the remaining Israeli and U.S. hostages appear to be closer than ever before to reaching a deal.  A new round of talks is expected this Thursday, either in Doha or Egypt.

Second, Venezuelan President Nicholás Maduro is expected to ramp up further his mass arrests of anyone who voted against him and opposes his regime in the face of the recent fraudulent election he carried out last month.  Venezuela accounts for more than 17 percent of the known existing oil reserves globally.  But the ongoing crisis caused by Maduro’s increasingly dictatorial regime and resulting economic catastrophe  has caused one of the largest displacement crises currently in the world, with close to 8 million Venezuelans fleeing the country. 

And in the midst of all this comes news that the US has held secret talks with Maduro offering him amnesty if he cedes power– offering full pardons for Maduro and his top henchmen who are currently under multiple U.S. Justice Department indictments (for Maduro, the fear is ending up like former Panamanian strongman Manuel Noriega who was captured when U.S. military forces invaded the country and arrested him. .  Noriega ended up dying in a Panamanian prison in 2017 after serving years in a U.S. “Supermax” prison in Colorado).  Maduro is unlikely to take a deal, instead seeking stronger relations with Russia, Iran, Cuba, and other rogue regimes for support.

Finally, Ukraine’s audacious military incursion into Russia’s Kursk region has shocked Russia’s leadership and population, showing how large areas of southwestern parts of Russia were left vulnerable and undefended.  Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared “a federal-level emergency” and ordered a rush of reinforcements.  It will be quite interesting to see how this changes the dynamics of the war but at the very least, it has doubtless left a lot of Russian’s questioning Putin’s leadership.

On the global radar screen this week, markets are gearing up for the Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium (August 22-24).  There are no major central bank speeches this coming week.

Meanwhile, markets are waiting to see the release of the U.S. July CPI figures and retail sales numbers this week.  Markets are also watching for China’s July PMIs and Japan’s GDP figure for the second quarter and July PPI print.  Additionally, Beijing will publish a 70-city housing price data report, likely to provide further insight into the struggling real estate market.  India reports inflation data and trade balance numbers for July.

In Europe, the U.K. has several important data releases this week: first, employment numbers (Tuesday), then the inflation print on Wednesday, and the monthly GDP figure on Thursday.  These numbers will be the headline data releases this week.  Germany’s ZEW survey comes out this week, too, likely to give further evidence of continued economic weakness.

Below is our full report of all the major geopolitical and economic events we are watching in the coming week:

Sunday, August 11, 2024

Global

·       Today is the final day of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US ban on the importation of Russian uranium takes place.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India's Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar will travel to the Maldives for an official visit through Aug. 11.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The United States, Germany, the United Kingdom and Morocco will conduct the Arcane Thunder 24 military exercise in Germany and Morocco through August 16. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (June)

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame will be sworn in to office after being re-elected in July.

·       Chad celebrates its Independence Day, marking when the country gained its independence from France in 1960.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, August 12, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on maintenance of international peace and security: Addressing the historical injustice and enhancing Africa’s effective representation in the Security Council. The Secretary-General of the United Nations will have remarks. In the afternoon, the Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on African Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS).  Additionally, a Counter-Terrorism Committee (1373 Committee) of the Security Council will begin formal meeting in New York.

·       OPEC releases its monthly oil market report.

·       Today is the 75th Anniversary of the signing of the Fourth Geneva Convention, which goes to the protection of civilians in a time of war.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Canada Building Permits (June)

·       Brazil Business Confidence (August)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (July)/ WASDE Report/ Monthly Budget Statement (July)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (July)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The liquidation hearing for Chinese developer Shimao will resume in Hong Kong.

·       Fiji Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka will visit China through August. 21.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia RBA Hauser Speech/ NAB Business Confidence (July)

·       Singapore GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ Current Account Q2

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment MAY

·       Malaysia Construction Output Q2

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Kazakhstan Unemployment Rate Q2/ PPI (July)

·       India Industrial Production (June)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ Manufacturing Production (June)

·       China Vehicle Sales (July)/ New Yuan Loans (July)/ M2 Money Supply (July)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (July)/ Total Social Financing (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will visit Russia through August 14 to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the situation in Gaza.  This is his first visit to Russia since 2021.  Abbas will then go to Turkey to meet with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan where he will also address the Turkish Parliament.

·       Germany’s Interior Minister Nancy Faeser gives statement on security situation in Germany.  Faeser is likely to speak about airport security after climate activists were able to breach fences and disrupt air traffic in late July.

·       Russia holds its 2024 Army Forum through August 14. The Forum will focus on the “special military operation in Ukraine” showcasing the Russian Army’s weapons, promoting the sale of weapons in foreign markets.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ireland Construction PMI (July)

·       Romania Inflation Rate (July)

·       Turkey Unemployment Rate (June)/ Participation Rate (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Russia Inflation Rate (July)/ Balance of Trade (June)

·       Germany Current Account (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Soft Computing will bring together leading academic scientists, and researchers to Alexandria, Egypt.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (June)/ Total Credit Growth (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (July)

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The inaugural East Africa Community Regional Conference on Education will take place in Arusha, Tanzania.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (July)

Tuesday, August 13, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS), followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the 3rd anniversary of the US evacuation of Afghanistan and the takeover of the country by the Taliban.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to speak on the economic outlook in a moderated conversation before the Conference of African American Financial Professionals.

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (July)/ PPI (July)/ Redbook (August/10)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/09)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Export Prices (July)/ Import Prices (July)

·       New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (June)

·       Japan PPI (July)/ Machine Tool Orders (July)

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change & Index (August)/ Wage Price Index Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (June)/ Employment Change (June)/ Claimant Count Change (July)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (July)

·       Spain Core Inflation Rate Final (July)

·       Turkey Current Account (June)

·       Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (August)

·       France IEA Oil Market Report

·       Romania Current Account (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Unemployment Rate Q2/ Unemployed Persons Q2/ Gold Production (June)/ Mining Production (June)

Wednesday, August 14, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA Purchase Index (August/09)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/09)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ CPI (July)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (August/09)

·       Brazil Retail Sales (June)

·       Colombia Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (July)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Thailand’s Constitution Court will decide whether to remove Prime Minister Sretha Thavasin from office for violating ethics laws by appointing a cabinet member with a criminal record.

·       Jeepney drivers in the Philippines will stage a transport strike through August 16.

·       The Island Country of Kiribati (part of the Micronesian subregion) holds parliamentary elections.  Run-off elections will be held on August 19.

·       Today is Independence Day in Pakistan.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (July)

·       New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision/ RBNZ Press Conference

·       India WPI Food Index (July)/ WPI Fuel (July)/ WPI Inflation (July)/ WPI Manufacturing (July)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Collective Security Treaty Organization (Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and the Republic of Tajikistan) will hold the exercise "Cobalt-2024" through August 16 in Novosibirsk, Russia. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Prel Q2/ Industrial Production (June)

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI Input & Output (July)/ Retail Price Index (July)

·       Hungary Industrial Production Final (June)

·       France Inflation Rate Final (July)

·       Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Prel Q2

·       Poland GDP Growth Rate Prel Q2/ Inflation Rate Final (July)/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Current Account (June)

·       Slovenia GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Euro Area Employment Change Prel Q2/ GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est Q2/ Industrial Production (June)

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       In Switzerland, a US-mediated ceasefire talks will begin between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. The African Union, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and the UN are involved as observers.

·       The Institute of Security Studies will hold an event in Pretoria, South Africa to discuss how South Africa’s unity government can manage migration.

·        The Connected Banking Summit will take place in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Retail Sales (June)

·       Angola Inflation Rate (July)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (July)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (July)

Thursday, August 15, 2024

Global

The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Yemen).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum will hold its Energy Ministerial Meeting in Lima, Peru, though August 16. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (June)

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem to speak on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Greater Louisville Inc. Regional Economic Development Update.

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on "Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia' Center for the Restoration of Economic Data (CREED)" before the "From Rasters to Rows: New Methods and Applications in Automated Data Extraction" event.

·       USA Retail Sales (July)/ Initial Jobless Claims (August/10)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (August)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (August)/ Export Prices (July)/ Import Prices (July)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (August)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (August)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Capacity Utilization (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (August/09)/ NOPA Crush Report/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (June)/ Foreign Bond Investment (June)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (June)/ Fed Balance Sheet (August/14)

·       Colombia GDP Growth Rate Q2/ ISE Economic Activity (June)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (June)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is India Independence Day, marking the day in 1947 when Jawaharial Nehur, the first Prime Minister of India, raised the Indian flag above the Lahori Gate in Delhi.  Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to give a national speech.

·       South Korea will celebrate Liberation (or Independence) Day, a public holiday. According to Nikkei News, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol is expected to make a speech outlining his vision for unification with North Korea on the occasion of the South's independence day. Yoon's administration has been openly critical of the North's human rights abuses, particularly Pyongyang's insistence on developing ever-more powerful weapons as its citizens lack basic rights.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (July)/ Food Inflation (July)

·       Japan GDP Growth Annualized Prel Q2/ Foreign Bond Investment (August/10)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August/10)/ Capacity Utilization (June)/ Industrial Production Final (June)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)/ Employment Change (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ Participation Rate (July)

·       China House Price Index (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ NBS Press Conference

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Philippines Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Remittances (June)

·       Kazakhstan GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (July)

·       India Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Services PMI (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Liechtenstein National Day, celebrating when the Principality of Liechtenstein declared August 15 a public holiday in 1940 in response to Adolf Hitler declaring that small states had no right to exist.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain GDP Growth Rate Prel Q2/ GDP (June)/ Business Investment Prel Q2/ Goods Trade Balance (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Construction Output (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (July)/ Labour Productivity Q2

·       Hungary Construction Output (June)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (July)

·       Slovakia Core Inflation Rate (July)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (June)

·       Serbia Building Permits (June)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/09)/ Budget Balance (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli negotiators will attend hostage talks in either Doha, Qatar, or Cairo, Egypt, though it is unclear whether Hamas negotiators will attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (July)/ Wholesale Prices (July)

·       Israel Inflation Rate (July)/ M1 Money Supply (June)/ M1 Money Supply (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (June)

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)

·       Egypt Unemployment Rate Q2

Friday, August 16, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Dominican Republic President Luis Abinader will be inaugurated for his second term in office. Today is also Restoration Day in in the Dominican Republic, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (June)

·       Canada Housing Starts (July)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (June)/ Manufacturing Sales Final (June)/ Wholesale Sales Final (June)

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austin Goolsbee participates in a fireside chat with Angeles Investors in Chicago.

·       USA Building Permits Prel (July)/ Housing Starts (July)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (August)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/16)

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (June)/ Imports (June)

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi travels to Thailand for meetings with Foreign Minister Sangiampongsa.  The two nations have enjoyed close relations in the past, but Prime Minister Sretha Thavisin has increasingly sought to broaden relations with other nations in the face of China’s slowing economy (Thailand is a major tourist destination for Chinese).  This includes moving toward better relations with the US, which were strained after a military coup in 2014 – all of which is making Beijing nervous.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (July)/ PPI Input & Output Q2

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (August)/ Tertiary Industry Index (June)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (July)

·       Malaysia Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

·       Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/09)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (July)

·       Great Britain Retail Sales (July)

·       Switzerland Industrial Production Q2

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (June)

·       Serbia Current Account (June)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (July)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (July)/ GDP (July)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (June)/ SACCI Business Confidence (July)

·       Angola M3 Money Supply (July)

·       Ghana PPI (July)

Saturday, August 17, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India hosts the 3rd Global South Summit in New Delhi.  Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will chair the meetings.  More than 25 countries will be attendance – either in person or virtually and the topics will include climate change, development of alternative energy, and agricultural advancements.

·       The Indonesia Government will inaugurate Nusantara as its new capital.  It is also Indonesia Independence Day, marking when the Netherlands granted the country its freedom in 1945.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       In Zimbabwe, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) summit of heads of state and government  meet to discuss economic growth and development.

·       Today is Independence Day, marking when the country was granted its freedom from France in 1960.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, August 18, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Singapore, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong delivers the annual National Day Rally speech, his inaugural address after taking office on May 15. He is Singapore’s fourth prime minister and his becoming Prime Minister is the nation’s first leadership change in 20 years.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 1st Est Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

August 12 - 16, 2024

Giving You Back Your Five Minutes…

We want to give you back the five minutes you would normally spend reading the U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead by saying right up front: There is nothing going on, and thus, there is nothing to read in this week’s report. Washington regulators are all out on vacation.

We Hope you are enjoying this quiet time, too.  But, just for the record,  below is a listing of the one event we could find scheduled – an SEC Closed Meeting on Thursday – taking place this coming week in Washington:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

·       The Senate is out of session for the month of August and returns to work on September 9.

House of Representatives

·       The House is out of session for the month of August and returns to work on September 9.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events 

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

U.S. Treasury Department

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

·       Thursday, August 15, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

·        There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Think Tanks and Other Events

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reads

August 9 - 11, 2024

Please find below our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week.  We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

Geoeconomics

• The Case for a Carbon Tax: My Long Read Q&A with Kyle and Shuting Pomerleau  American Enterprise Institute’s Policial Economy Podcast

  The Biden administration has set ambitious goals to decrease US carbon emissions. Starting in 2022, the Inflation Reduction Act granted clean energy tax credits to businesses in hopes of encouraging a greener economy. Kyle and Shuting Pomerleau see a carbon tax as a superior approach. To offset any regressive effects, they propose a revenue swap, using the income from the tax to directly finance an expanded child tax credit.  The interview is with Shuting Pomerleau, who is the deputy director of climate policy at the Niskanen Center. Kyle Pomerleau is a senior fellow at AEI, where he studies federal tax policy.

• Pocketbook Politics: The Impact of Wealth on Political Preferences and Participation  Anton Brännlund,  David Cesarini,  Karl-Oskar Lindgren, Erik Lindqvist,  Sven Oskarsson  & Robert Östling/ National Bureau of Economic Research

  The rich tend to support policies favoring the affluent and are over-represented among both voters and legislators. This paper investigates whether these correlations reflect causal effects of wealth by leveraging random, positive wealth shocks in the form of lottery prizes. Compared to suitably matched controls, large-prize winners are no more likely to cast votes in national elections or run for political office. We also find no significant effects of parents’ lottery winnings on their children’s political participation. But winners of large lottery prizes become more negative toward taxes on wealth, real estate and inheritances. Although we do not detect any statistically significant effects on other political preferences, effects tend to go in the direction of a more right-wing political orientation. We find no evidence that lottery wealth changes moral values or strengthens beliefs in the importance of hard work for success in life.

• Is Greece’s Six-Day Work Week a Harbinger?  Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg/Project Syndicate

  Greece’s surprising move back to a six-day work week in some sectors reflects a mix of evolving political sentiment and merciless arithmetic. To maintain their current quality of life, citizens across almost all high-income countries must either open their borders to new immigrants or work more.

China

• Is It Me or the Economic System? Changing Evaluations of Inequality in China Big Data China/CSIS

  Harvard Professor Ilaria Mazzocco and CSIS Scholar Scott Kennedy highlight new research on a significant shift in popular sentiment in China regarding the causes of economic inequality and assess implications for policymakers.

• China’s Real Economic Crisis – Why Beijing Won’t Give Up on a Failing Model Foreign Affairs

  The Chinese economy is stuck. Following Beijing’s decision, in late 2022, to abruptly end its draconian “zero COVID” policy, many observers assumed that China’s growth engine would rapidly reignite. After years of pandemic lockdowns that brought some economic sectors to a virtual halt, reopening the country was supposed to spark a major comeback. Instead, the recovery has faltered, with sluggish GDP performance, sagging consumer confidence, growing clashes with the West, and a collapse in property prices that has caused some of China’s largest companies to default. But there is a more enduring driver of the present stasis, one that runs deeper than Xi’s growing authoritarianism or the effects of a crashing property market: a decades-old economic strategy that privileges industrial production over all else, an approach that, over time, has resulted in enormous structural overcapacity. For years, Beijing’s industrial policies have led to overinvestment in production facilities in sectors from raw materials to emerging technologies such as batteries and robots, often saddling Chinese cities and firms with huge debt burdens in the process.

• No Quick Fixes: China’s Long-Term Consumption Growth   Rhodium Group

  Investment-led growth has peaked in China, as the financial system can no longer generate the same pace of credit expansion as in the past decade. With this source of growth drying up, household consumption growth will be the single most important determinant of China’s long-term economic trajectory and growth rate. In this report, the authors explain what is holding back household consumption in China, examine the policy debate over how to catalyze consumer spending, and offer a range of long-term forecasts for consumption growth.

Latin America

• Can Maduro Pull Off the Mother of All Electoral Frauds?   CSIS Americas Program/Ryan Berg

  Venezuela is now living in the post-electoral moment of one of the most brazen thefts in modern Latin American history. Fortunately, the Venezuelan opposition was well prepared for this. In a June 2023 event with CSIS, opposition leader María Corina Machado predicted that if there were elections in Venezuela, “there are only two outcomes: a landslide victory or an obscene fraud.” These words have proven prophetic in recent days, as both of these outcomes have transpired.  President Nicolás Maduro had telegraphed his intentions ahead of the vote by declaring that he would win “by hook or by crook” and recently warning that there would be a “bloodbath” in the country if he didn’t win.
  

• Twelve Graphs on Why Maduro Could “Win” by Stealing Venezuela’s Election   Cato Institute

  After the recent elections in Venezuela, President Nicholas Maduro claimed – without providing any evidence – that he had beaten opposition candidate Edmundo González by a margin of 51 to 44 percent.  But, as this report shows using stastitical analysis broken down into graphs, the fair calculations, of the results shows around 65 percent of Venezuelan voters rejected Maduro’s government at the polls. 

Russia

• Too Many Dead Soldiers to Count  Mediazona & BBC New Russia

  BBC News Russia have confirmed the deaths of 61,831 Russian soldiers in Ukraine by name, including over 2,000 confirmed in the last two weeks. In a Telegram post, Mediazona said it currently has a backlog of soldiers’ deaths to confirm: “The number of obituaries is rising so quickly that [we] can’t keep up.” (The journalists’ count only includes soldiers whose deaths can be verified from sources like obituaries and funeral announcements, so the real number of Russian soldiers killed is much higher. Last month, Meduza and Mediazona estimated it at 120,000.)
  

• 2024 Defense of Japan  Japanese Ministry of Defense

  In its annual risk assessment, the Japanese Defense Ministry writes that the world “is now facing the greatest trial since the end of World War II” and that Japan faces “a new era of crisis” with potential implications for the Indo-Pacific.  The report not only discusses ongoing tensions with China (which is identified as the gravest threat to Japan) and North Korea, but also Russia in a whole new way. The report castigated Russia, saying “This situation, in which a permanent member of the Security Council, which is supposed to take primary responsibility for maintaining international peace and security, openly engages in military actions challenging international law and the international order, claims innocent lives and repeatedly uses language and actions that can be interpreted as threats involving nuclear weapons, is unprecedented.”

European Union

• The Missing Strategy in Europe’s Chip Ambitions  Interface I

  European semiconductor technology suppliers hold market-leading—sometimes monopolistic—positions at various points in the global semiconductor value chain. Europe is home to competitive suppliers of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, chemicals, sensors, automotive chips, and power semiconductors, to name just a few. Because of the steep barriers to entry and close customer–supplier relationships, these are not easy markets to enter and successfully compete as a new company. The world depends on semiconductor technologies from European companies, and just as Europe depends on front- and back-end manufacturing in Asia, Asian fabrication plants (fabs) depend on manufacturing equipment and chemicals from European suppliers. Furthermore, manufacturers of electric vehicles all over the world depend on chips from Europe. The list goes on. Semiconductors are a strategic asset to Europe, one that provides geopolitical leverage—as other countries depend on access to our technology.

• Foreign Direct Investment and National Security: Perspectives from the EU and the US  Istituto Affair Internazionali

  Foreign direct investment (FDI) serves as a cornerstone of the global economy, driving economic growth and development across nations.  However, amidst rising geopolitical tensions and uncertainties, there is a discernible shift towards strengthening or establishing new frameworks for FDI screening.  This study looks at the similarities and differences between the US and EU in conducting such screening – and how the implications of these screenings may have implications that go beyond purely economic considerations, affecting transatlantic relations and the broader geopolitical landscape.

• How to Ensure Defense Capabilities for Europe? Economic and Fiscal Consequences Econopol

  Abstract: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has raised the question of whether the issue of external border security and defense needs to be more closely integrated within the European Union. Many proposals are under discussion aimed at assigning the EU with tasks that are currently performed at national level. Most EU members have increased their defense spending in the past year or plan to do so soon. However, whether an EU defense union is politically achievable remains controversial. It entails additional costs and ‒ even more importantly ‒ the member states would have to give up some of their sovereignty. The project is linked to the plan to build a robust and efficient defense industry. This is because European arms production has so far suffered from national fragmentation and chronic underfunding. In this issue of EconPol Forum, our authors take a critical look at the needs of the common EU defense policy. They examine how it should be efficiently financed and coordinated at EU and national level. They also provide insights into the role of the European defense industry in a single market and its strengths and weaknesses in a global context. Furthermore, they shed light on the financing of R&D and technology through the EU’s coordinated defense policy and its expected impact on growth, productivity, and competitiveness.

The Global Week Ahead

The World Waits and Watches for Iran’s Retaliatory Response, Harris to Announce Her Vice-Presidential Running Mate, And a Fairly Quiet Week in the Global Markets

It may be the Dog Days of Summer in the Northern Hemisphere, with Washington, Brussels, and many other G7 capitals emptied for much-needed vacations.  But markets are closely watching the Middle East as tensions reached a new high point as Iran is likely to launch retaliatory strikes against Israel following the assassination of Hezbollah leader Fuad Shukr in Lebanon and Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.   The US has bolstered its naval presence in the region in a show of support for Israel.  But they are also there as the risk of Iranian-backed militia groups in Syria and Iraq will attack US military targets in the region, too.

Meanwhile, following successful meetings of the Quad (India, Japan, Australia, and the US) foreign ministers and defense ministers last week, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will hold "2+2" meetings in Annapolis, Maryland, with their counterparts from Australia.  The conference aims to further strengthen security and diplomatic relations between the two nations, particularly around the AUKUS (Australia, UK, US) security arrangement, in the face of growing Chinese aggressive behavior in the Indo-Pacific.

Finally, US Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to announce her running mate on Wednesday, capping three weeks of extraordinary momentum as she seeks to win the presidency in November.  The Democratic Convention begins on August 19.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, there are no major central bank speeches scheduled as most central bankers are on vacation in advance of the annual Jackson Hole Conference on August 22. But there are still a healthy number of economic reports being released.

Markets will focus on the Bank of Japan's summary of opinions following last week's interest rate increase. Also, in Asia this week, China will release its inflation print and trade figures on Friday. 

Europe is mostly quiet this week, aside from Germany and France releasing factory orders and industrial production figures.

 Finally, in the US, the ISM services index and international trade balance figures are released this week, as well as the Fed's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, which offers a clearer snapshot of credit conditions.

Here is what else we are watching closely around the world this coming week:

Sunday, August 4, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Philippines Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo will visit Mongolia

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to meet with Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, August 5, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on ICC Sudan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Vice President Kamala Harris will meet with prospective vice presidential running mates.

·       Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva visits Chile through August 6.

·        The Panama Canal Authority will increase daily transits to 35 in another step to normalize the shipping route after a severe drought in 2023 forced authorities to restrict transits.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly to discuss monetary policy and economic trends before moderated conversation hosted in partnership with the Hawaii Executive Collaborative.

·       Canada Average Hourly Wages (July)

·       Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       USA S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (July)/ ISM Services PMI/ Services Business Activity/ Services Employment/ Services New Orders/ Services Prices (July)/ Loan Officer Survey

·       Colombia Exports (June)/ PPI (July)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Australia Judo Bank Composite & Services PMI Final (July)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM (July)

·       Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMI Final (July)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (July)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (July)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       China Caixin Composite & Services PMI (July)

·       Indonesia GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (July)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI Final (July)

·       Kazakhstan S&P Global Services PMI (July)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Spain Industrial Production (June)/ HCOB Composite PMI (July)

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)/ Vehicle Sales (July)/ Monetary Policy Report

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Prel (June)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI (July)

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (July)

·       France HCOB Composite & Services PMI (July)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (July)/ New Car Registrations (July)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (July)/ PPI (June)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (July)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (July)

·       Serbia PPI (July)

·       Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The US, Germany, the UK, and Morocco will conduct the Arcane Thunder 24 military exercise in Germany and Morocco through Aug. 16. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (July)

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (July)

·       Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (July)

·       Qatar Qatar Financial Centre PMI (July)/ M2 Money Supply (June)/ Total Credit Growth (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Jordan PPI (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Linguists and language researchers will convene in Nairobi for the World Congress of African Linguistics to discuss the use of African languages for development.

·       Burkina Faso celebrates Independence Day, marking the day the country gained its freedom from France in 1960.

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (July)

·       Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (July)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (July)

·       Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (July)

Tuesday, August 6, 2024 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S Secretary of State Antony Blinken and U.S Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin will hold talks with their Australian counterparts, Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Minister for Defense Richard Marles, in Annapolis, Maryland as part of the 34th Australia-U.S Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN).  The focus of the meetings will be to find new ways to further strengthen US-Australian security ties in the face of growing Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific.

· In Miami, Florida, the sentencing of former British Virgin Islands premier Andrew Fahie, convicted of multiple charges, including conspiracy to import a controlled substance, conspiracy to commit money laundering, and foreign travel in aid of racketeering.

·       Bolivia celebrates Independence Day, marking the day it won its independence from Spain in 1825.

·       Today is Independence Day in Jamaica, marking when the island country gained its full independence from the UK in 1962.

·       El Salvador celebrates San Salvador Day, a national holiday.  The day celebrates the feast of the Divine Savior of the World, who El Salvador is named after.

·       Today is Culturama Day, a public holiday celebrated in Saint Kitts and Nevis in honor of the islands’ cultural history.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ Car Production MoM (July)/ New Car Registrations MoM (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Mexico Auto Exports (July)/ Auto Production (July)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)

·       USA Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Redbook (August/03)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (August)/ Total Household Debt Q2/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/02)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (July)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo will end his visit to Mongolia and begin a visit to South Korea.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (June)/ Household Spending (June)/ Overtime Pay (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (July)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

·       Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision, Australia ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM (July)/ Building Permits MoM Final (June)/ Private House Approvals MoM Final (June)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (July)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (August/06)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (July)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (July)

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (July)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Germany Factory Orders MoM (June)/ HCOB Construction PMI (July)

·       Romania Retail Sales (June)

·       Hungary Retail Sales (June)

·       France Private Non-Farm Payrolls QoQ Prel Q2/ HCOB Construction PMI (July)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (June)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (July)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (July)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (July)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The General Assembly of the International Astronomical Union, the first to be held in Africa, will take place in Cape Town.

·       Today is Independence Day in the Ivory Coast, marking when the nation gained its independence from France.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana S&P Global PMI (July)

·       Kenya Interest Rate Decision

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

Wednesday, August 7, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Women and peace and security: Sustaining WPS commitments in the context of accelerated drawdown of peace operation.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Presidential candidate Kamala Harris is expected to announce her vice presidential running mate.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/02)/ MBA Purchase Index (August/02)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (August/02)/ Consumer Credit Change (June)/ Used Car Prices (July)

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Canada Ivey PMI s.a (July)/ BoC Summary of Deliberations

·       Peru Balance of Trade (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Thailand’s Constitutional Court will rule on whether the opposition Move Forward Party should be dissolved.

· Japan and the US will conclude the joint military exercise Resolute Dragon in Okinawa, which began on July 28.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Unemployment Rate Q2/ Labour Costs Index Q2/ Participation Rate Q2

·       Australia Ai Group Industry/ Construction/ Manufacturing Index (July)/ RBA Chart Pack

·       South Korea Current Account (June)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Japan Coincident Index Prel (June)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (June)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       India M3 Money Supply (July/26)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Italian government will hold a cabinet meeting, with discussions possibly including a potential windfall tax the government is considering imposing on banks and other companies.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates on a panel discussion at the 2024 Yale Program on Financial Stability Financial Crisis Forum in New Haven, Connecticut.

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Industrial Production (June)

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (July)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (July)

·       Hungary Industrial Production Prel (June)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       France Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (June)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Romania Interest Rate Decision

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

Thursday, August 8, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). The Security Council is also scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security caused by terrorist acts.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chile Inflation Rate (July)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (July)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (August/03)/ Wholesale Inventories (June)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (August/02)/ Fed Barkin Speech/ Fed Balance Sheet (August/7)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (July)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (June)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (July)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is ASEAN Day, marking the signing of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations declaration by the five founding members, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, 57 years ago. The body now has 10 members.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions/ Current Account (June)/ Bank Lending (July)/ Foreign Bond Investment (August/03)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current (July)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (July)

· Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock delivers the annual Rotary club lecture in Armidale, Australia.

·       Australia NAB Business Confidence (July)

·       Philippines GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       New Zealand Business Inflation Expectations Q3

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (June)

·       India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (July)/ Car Sales (July)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Kazakhstan Current Account Q2/ PPI (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (July)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (July)/ Budget Balance (July)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Current Account (June)

·       Turkey Inflation Report/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/02)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (July)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production (June)

Friday, August 9, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the 50th anniversary of President Richard Nixon’s leaving office the day after he resigned.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (July)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (June)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (July)/ Employment Change (July)/ Participation Rate (July)/ Part & Full-Time Employment Chg (July)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (July)

·       USA Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/09)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida begins a three-day trip to Central Asia.  He will hold the first joint summit with the leaders of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan.  The meetings will focus on how to boost trade as well as establishing stronger diplomatic relations.  Japan is eager to build stronger ties with these nations as they are energy and mineral-rich.

·       Singapore celebrates its Independence Day, marking the day when the country won its independence from Malaysia in 1965.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (May)

·       China Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI (July)/ Current Account Prel Q2

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (June)/ Motorbike Sales (July)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (July)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (July)/26/ Deposit Growth (July)/26/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/02)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       France Unemployment Rate Q2

·       Germany Inflation Rate Final (July)

·       Romania Balance of Trade (June)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (June)/ Construction Output (June)/ Industrial Production (June)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (June)/ Auto Production & Sales (July)

·       Italy Inflation Rate Final (July)/ Balance of Trade (June)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (June)

·       Greece Industrial Production (June)/ Inflation Rate (July)

·       Ireland Industrial Production (June)

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (July)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (July)

·       Russia GDP Growth Rate Prel Q2/ Inflation Rate (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (July)

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (July)

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (July)

Saturday, August 10, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Ecuador celebrates its Independence Day, marking when the country won its independence from Spain in 1822.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In London, the Divest for Palestine conference begins.  The purpose of the conference is to demand that local councils, universities, cultural institutions, and financial institutions cut their ties with and divest their funds from companies that are arming and supporting Israel.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, August 11, 2024

 Global

·       Today is the final day of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US ban on the importation of Russian uranium takes place.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (June)

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame will be sworn in to office after being re-elected in July.

·       Chad celebrates its Independence Day, marking when the country gained its independence from France in 1960.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.