The Global Week Ahead

The World Waits and Watches for Iran’s Retaliatory Response, Harris to Announce Her Vice-Presidential Running Mate, And a Fairly Quiet Week in the Global Markets

It may be the Dog Days of Summer in the Northern Hemisphere, with Washington, Brussels, and many other G7 capitals emptied for much-needed vacations.  But markets are closely watching the Middle East as tensions reached a new high point as Iran is likely to launch retaliatory strikes against Israel following the assassination of Hezbollah leader Fuad Shukr in Lebanon and Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.   The US has bolstered its naval presence in the region in a show of support for Israel.  But they are also there as the risk of Iranian-backed militia groups in Syria and Iraq will attack US military targets in the region, too.

Meanwhile, following successful meetings of the Quad (India, Japan, Australia, and the US) foreign ministers and defense ministers last week, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will hold "2+2" meetings in Annapolis, Maryland, with their counterparts from Australia.  The conference aims to further strengthen security and diplomatic relations between the two nations, particularly around the AUKUS (Australia, UK, US) security arrangement, in the face of growing Chinese aggressive behavior in the Indo-Pacific.

Finally, US Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to announce her running mate on Wednesday, capping three weeks of extraordinary momentum as she seeks to win the presidency in November.  The Democratic Convention begins on August 19.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, there are no major central bank speeches scheduled as most central bankers are on vacation in advance of the annual Jackson Hole Conference on August 22. But there are still a healthy number of economic reports being released.

Markets will focus on the Bank of Japan's summary of opinions following last week's interest rate increase. Also, in Asia this week, China will release its inflation print and trade figures on Friday. 

Europe is mostly quiet this week, aside from Germany and France releasing factory orders and industrial production figures.

 Finally, in the US, the ISM services index and international trade balance figures are released this week, as well as the Fed's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, which offers a clearer snapshot of credit conditions.

Here is what else we are watching closely around the world this coming week:

Sunday, August 4, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Philippines Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo will visit Mongolia

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to meet with Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, August 5, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on ICC Sudan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Vice President Kamala Harris will meet with prospective vice presidential running mates.

·       Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva visits Chile through August 6.

·        The Panama Canal Authority will increase daily transits to 35 in another step to normalize the shipping route after a severe drought in 2023 forced authorities to restrict transits.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly to discuss monetary policy and economic trends before moderated conversation hosted in partnership with the Hawaii Executive Collaborative.

·       Canada Average Hourly Wages (July)

·       Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       USA S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (July)/ ISM Services PMI/ Services Business Activity/ Services Employment/ Services New Orders/ Services Prices (July)/ Loan Officer Survey

·       Colombia Exports (June)/ PPI (July)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Australia Judo Bank Composite & Services PMI Final (July)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM (July)

·       Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMI Final (July)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (July)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (July)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       China Caixin Composite & Services PMI (July)

·       Indonesia GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (July)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI Final (July)

·       Kazakhstan S&P Global Services PMI (July)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Spain Industrial Production (June)/ HCOB Composite PMI (July)

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)/ Vehicle Sales (July)/ Monetary Policy Report

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Prel (June)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI (July)

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (July)

·       France HCOB Composite & Services PMI (July)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (July)/ New Car Registrations (July)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (July)/ PPI (June)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (July)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (July)

·       Serbia PPI (July)

·       Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The US, Germany, the UK, and Morocco will conduct the Arcane Thunder 24 military exercise in Germany and Morocco through Aug. 16. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (July)

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (July)

·       Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (July)

·       Qatar Qatar Financial Centre PMI (July)/ M2 Money Supply (June)/ Total Credit Growth (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Jordan PPI (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Linguists and language researchers will convene in Nairobi for the World Congress of African Linguistics to discuss the use of African languages for development.

·       Burkina Faso celebrates Independence Day, marking the day the country gained its freedom from France in 1960.

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (July)

·       Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (July)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (July)

·       Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (July)

Tuesday, August 6, 2024 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S Secretary of State Antony Blinken and U.S Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin will hold talks with their Australian counterparts, Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Minister for Defense Richard Marles, in Annapolis, Maryland as part of the 34th Australia-U.S Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN).  The focus of the meetings will be to find new ways to further strengthen US-Australian security ties in the face of growing Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific.

· In Miami, Florida, the sentencing of former British Virgin Islands premier Andrew Fahie, convicted of multiple charges, including conspiracy to import a controlled substance, conspiracy to commit money laundering, and foreign travel in aid of racketeering.

·       Bolivia celebrates Independence Day, marking the day it won its independence from Spain in 1825.

·       Today is Independence Day in Jamaica, marking when the island country gained its full independence from the UK in 1962.

·       El Salvador celebrates San Salvador Day, a national holiday.  The day celebrates the feast of the Divine Savior of the World, who El Salvador is named after.

·       Today is Culturama Day, a public holiday celebrated in Saint Kitts and Nevis in honor of the islands’ cultural history.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ Car Production MoM (July)/ New Car Registrations MoM (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Mexico Auto Exports (July)/ Auto Production (July)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)

·       USA Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Redbook (August/03)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (August)/ Total Household Debt Q2/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/02)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (July)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo will end his visit to Mongolia and begin a visit to South Korea.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (June)/ Household Spending (June)/ Overtime Pay (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (July)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

·       Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision, Australia ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM (July)/ Building Permits MoM Final (June)/ Private House Approvals MoM Final (June)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (July)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (August/06)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (July)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (July)

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (July)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Germany Factory Orders MoM (June)/ HCOB Construction PMI (July)

·       Romania Retail Sales (June)

·       Hungary Retail Sales (June)

·       France Private Non-Farm Payrolls QoQ Prel Q2/ HCOB Construction PMI (July)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (June)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (July)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (July)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (July)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The General Assembly of the International Astronomical Union, the first to be held in Africa, will take place in Cape Town.

·       Today is Independence Day in the Ivory Coast, marking when the nation gained its independence from France.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana S&P Global PMI (July)

·       Kenya Interest Rate Decision

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

Wednesday, August 7, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Women and peace and security: Sustaining WPS commitments in the context of accelerated drawdown of peace operation.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Presidential candidate Kamala Harris is expected to announce her vice presidential running mate.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/02)/ MBA Purchase Index (August/02)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (August/02)/ Consumer Credit Change (June)/ Used Car Prices (July)

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Canada Ivey PMI s.a (July)/ BoC Summary of Deliberations

·       Peru Balance of Trade (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Thailand’s Constitutional Court will rule on whether the opposition Move Forward Party should be dissolved.

· Japan and the US will conclude the joint military exercise Resolute Dragon in Okinawa, which began on July 28.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Unemployment Rate Q2/ Labour Costs Index Q2/ Participation Rate Q2

·       Australia Ai Group Industry/ Construction/ Manufacturing Index (July)/ RBA Chart Pack

·       South Korea Current Account (June)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Japan Coincident Index Prel (June)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (June)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       India M3 Money Supply (July/26)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Italian government will hold a cabinet meeting, with discussions possibly including a potential windfall tax the government is considering imposing on banks and other companies.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates on a panel discussion at the 2024 Yale Program on Financial Stability Financial Crisis Forum in New Haven, Connecticut.

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Industrial Production (June)

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (July)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (July)

·       Hungary Industrial Production Prel (June)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       France Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (June)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Romania Interest Rate Decision

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

Thursday, August 8, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). The Security Council is also scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security caused by terrorist acts.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chile Inflation Rate (July)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (July)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (August/03)/ Wholesale Inventories (June)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (August/02)/ Fed Barkin Speech/ Fed Balance Sheet (August/7)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (July)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (June)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (July)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is ASEAN Day, marking the signing of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations declaration by the five founding members, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, 57 years ago. The body now has 10 members.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions/ Current Account (June)/ Bank Lending (July)/ Foreign Bond Investment (August/03)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current (July)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (July)

· Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock delivers the annual Rotary club lecture in Armidale, Australia.

·       Australia NAB Business Confidence (July)

·       Philippines GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       New Zealand Business Inflation Expectations Q3

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (June)

·       India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (July)/ Car Sales (July)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Kazakhstan Current Account Q2/ PPI (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (July)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (July)/ Budget Balance (July)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Current Account (June)

·       Turkey Inflation Report/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/02)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (July)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production (June)

Friday, August 9, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the 50th anniversary of President Richard Nixon’s leaving office the day after he resigned.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (July)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (June)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (July)/ Employment Change (July)/ Participation Rate (July)/ Part & Full-Time Employment Chg (July)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (July)

·       USA Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/09)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida begins a three-day trip to Central Asia.  He will hold the first joint summit with the leaders of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan.  The meetings will focus on how to boost trade as well as establishing stronger diplomatic relations.  Japan is eager to build stronger ties with these nations as they are energy and mineral-rich.

·       Singapore celebrates its Independence Day, marking the day when the country won its independence from Malaysia in 1965.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (May)

·       China Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI (July)/ Current Account Prel Q2

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (June)/ Motorbike Sales (July)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (July)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (July)/26/ Deposit Growth (July)/26/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/02)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       France Unemployment Rate Q2

·       Germany Inflation Rate Final (July)

·       Romania Balance of Trade (June)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (June)/ Construction Output (June)/ Industrial Production (June)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (June)/ Auto Production & Sales (July)

·       Italy Inflation Rate Final (July)/ Balance of Trade (June)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (June)

·       Greece Industrial Production (June)/ Inflation Rate (July)

·       Ireland Industrial Production (June)

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (July)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (July)

·       Russia GDP Growth Rate Prel Q2/ Inflation Rate (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (July)

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (July)

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (July)

Saturday, August 10, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Ecuador celebrates its Independence Day, marking when the country won its independence from Spain in 1822.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In London, the Divest for Palestine conference begins.  The purpose of the conference is to demand that local councils, universities, cultural institutions, and financial institutions cut their ties with and divest their funds from companies that are arming and supporting Israel.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, August 11, 2024

 Global

·       Today is the final day of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US ban on the importation of Russian uranium takes place.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (June)

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame will be sworn in to office after being re-elected in July.

·       Chad celebrates its Independence Day, marking when the country gained its independence from France in 1960.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.