The Global Week Ahead

The Three Biggest Events of the Week Are Not on the Calendar: Waiting and Watching in the Middle East, What Happens Next in Venezuela, and how Ukraine’s bold assault across Russia’s border in the Kursk region might change the face of the war.

August 11 - 17, 2024

It is supposed to be a quiet August, with much of the world on holiday. But, while there is not much officially scheduled this coming week, three potentially seismic events are happening this week not on the calendar.

First, Israel (and the rest of the world) continues to wait and watch for an almost assured retaliatory strike from Iran following Israel’s killing of senior Hezbollah leader, Fuad Shukr,  in Lebanon and then Hamas’ political leader, Ismail Hanihey, who was visiting Tehran for the inauguration of Iran’s new President, Masoud Pezeshkian.  Our view is Iran has few options on how to attack Israel without risking causing an immediate and massive escalation potentially leading to an all-out war.  In the midst of all this, negotiations being brokered by Qatar and other nations between Israel and Hamas for a ceasefire and release of the remaining Israeli and U.S. hostages appear to be closer than ever before to reaching a deal.  A new round of talks is expected this Thursday, either in Doha or Egypt.

Second, Venezuelan President Nicholás Maduro is expected to ramp up further his mass arrests of anyone who voted against him and opposes his regime in the face of the recent fraudulent election he carried out last month.  Venezuela accounts for more than 17 percent of the known existing oil reserves globally.  But the ongoing crisis caused by Maduro’s increasingly dictatorial regime and resulting economic catastrophe  has caused one of the largest displacement crises currently in the world, with close to 8 million Venezuelans fleeing the country. 

And in the midst of all this comes news that the US has held secret talks with Maduro offering him amnesty if he cedes power– offering full pardons for Maduro and his top henchmen who are currently under multiple U.S. Justice Department indictments (for Maduro, the fear is ending up like former Panamanian strongman Manuel Noriega who was captured when U.S. military forces invaded the country and arrested him. .  Noriega ended up dying in a Panamanian prison in 2017 after serving years in a U.S. “Supermax” prison in Colorado).  Maduro is unlikely to take a deal, instead seeking stronger relations with Russia, Iran, Cuba, and other rogue regimes for support.

Finally, Ukraine’s audacious military incursion into Russia’s Kursk region has shocked Russia’s leadership and population, showing how large areas of southwestern parts of Russia were left vulnerable and undefended.  Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared “a federal-level emergency” and ordered a rush of reinforcements.  It will be quite interesting to see how this changes the dynamics of the war but at the very least, it has doubtless left a lot of Russian’s questioning Putin’s leadership.

On the global radar screen this week, markets are gearing up for the Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium (August 22-24).  There are no major central bank speeches this coming week.

Meanwhile, markets are waiting to see the release of the U.S. July CPI figures and retail sales numbers this week.  Markets are also watching for China’s July PMIs and Japan’s GDP figure for the second quarter and July PPI print.  Additionally, Beijing will publish a 70-city housing price data report, likely to provide further insight into the struggling real estate market.  India reports inflation data and trade balance numbers for July.

In Europe, the U.K. has several important data releases this week: first, employment numbers (Tuesday), then the inflation print on Wednesday, and the monthly GDP figure on Thursday.  These numbers will be the headline data releases this week.  Germany’s ZEW survey comes out this week, too, likely to give further evidence of continued economic weakness.

Below is our full report of all the major geopolitical and economic events we are watching in the coming week:

Sunday, August 11, 2024

Global

·       Today is the final day of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US ban on the importation of Russian uranium takes place.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India's Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar will travel to the Maldives for an official visit through Aug. 11.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The United States, Germany, the United Kingdom and Morocco will conduct the Arcane Thunder 24 military exercise in Germany and Morocco through August 16. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (June)

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame will be sworn in to office after being re-elected in July.

·       Chad celebrates its Independence Day, marking when the country gained its independence from France in 1960.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, August 12, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on maintenance of international peace and security: Addressing the historical injustice and enhancing Africa’s effective representation in the Security Council. The Secretary-General of the United Nations will have remarks. In the afternoon, the Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on African Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS).  Additionally, a Counter-Terrorism Committee (1373 Committee) of the Security Council will begin formal meeting in New York.

·       OPEC releases its monthly oil market report.

·       Today is the 75th Anniversary of the signing of the Fourth Geneva Convention, which goes to the protection of civilians in a time of war.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Canada Building Permits (June)

·       Brazil Business Confidence (August)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (July)/ WASDE Report/ Monthly Budget Statement (July)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (July)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The liquidation hearing for Chinese developer Shimao will resume in Hong Kong.

·       Fiji Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka will visit China through August. 21.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia RBA Hauser Speech/ NAB Business Confidence (July)

·       Singapore GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ Current Account Q2

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment MAY

·       Malaysia Construction Output Q2

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Kazakhstan Unemployment Rate Q2/ PPI (July)

·       India Industrial Production (June)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ Manufacturing Production (June)

·       China Vehicle Sales (July)/ New Yuan Loans (July)/ M2 Money Supply (July)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (July)/ Total Social Financing (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will visit Russia through August 14 to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the situation in Gaza.  This is his first visit to Russia since 2021.  Abbas will then go to Turkey to meet with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan where he will also address the Turkish Parliament.

·       Germany’s Interior Minister Nancy Faeser gives statement on security situation in Germany.  Faeser is likely to speak about airport security after climate activists were able to breach fences and disrupt air traffic in late July.

·       Russia holds its 2024 Army Forum through August 14. The Forum will focus on the “special military operation in Ukraine” showcasing the Russian Army’s weapons, promoting the sale of weapons in foreign markets.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ireland Construction PMI (July)

·       Romania Inflation Rate (July)

·       Turkey Unemployment Rate (June)/ Participation Rate (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Russia Inflation Rate (July)/ Balance of Trade (June)

·       Germany Current Account (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Soft Computing will bring together leading academic scientists, and researchers to Alexandria, Egypt.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (June)/ Total Credit Growth (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (July)

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The inaugural East Africa Community Regional Conference on Education will take place in Arusha, Tanzania.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (July)

Tuesday, August 13, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS), followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the 3rd anniversary of the US evacuation of Afghanistan and the takeover of the country by the Taliban.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to speak on the economic outlook in a moderated conversation before the Conference of African American Financial Professionals.

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (July)/ PPI (July)/ Redbook (August/10)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/09)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Export Prices (July)/ Import Prices (July)

·       New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (June)

·       Japan PPI (July)/ Machine Tool Orders (July)

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change & Index (August)/ Wage Price Index Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (June)/ Employment Change (June)/ Claimant Count Change (July)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (July)

·       Spain Core Inflation Rate Final (July)

·       Turkey Current Account (June)

·       Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (August)

·       France IEA Oil Market Report

·       Romania Current Account (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Unemployment Rate Q2/ Unemployed Persons Q2/ Gold Production (June)/ Mining Production (June)

Wednesday, August 14, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA Purchase Index (August/09)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/09)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ CPI (July)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (August/09)

·       Brazil Retail Sales (June)

·       Colombia Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (July)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Thailand’s Constitution Court will decide whether to remove Prime Minister Sretha Thavasin from office for violating ethics laws by appointing a cabinet member with a criminal record.

·       Jeepney drivers in the Philippines will stage a transport strike through August 16.

·       The Island Country of Kiribati (part of the Micronesian subregion) holds parliamentary elections.  Run-off elections will be held on August 19.

·       Today is Independence Day in Pakistan.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (July)

·       New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision/ RBNZ Press Conference

·       India WPI Food Index (July)/ WPI Fuel (July)/ WPI Inflation (July)/ WPI Manufacturing (July)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Collective Security Treaty Organization (Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and the Republic of Tajikistan) will hold the exercise "Cobalt-2024" through August 16 in Novosibirsk, Russia. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Prel Q2/ Industrial Production (June)

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI Input & Output (July)/ Retail Price Index (July)

·       Hungary Industrial Production Final (June)

·       France Inflation Rate Final (July)

·       Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Prel Q2

·       Poland GDP Growth Rate Prel Q2/ Inflation Rate Final (July)/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Current Account (June)

·       Slovenia GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Euro Area Employment Change Prel Q2/ GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est Q2/ Industrial Production (June)

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       In Switzerland, a US-mediated ceasefire talks will begin between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. The African Union, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and the UN are involved as observers.

·       The Institute of Security Studies will hold an event in Pretoria, South Africa to discuss how South Africa’s unity government can manage migration.

·        The Connected Banking Summit will take place in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Retail Sales (June)

·       Angola Inflation Rate (July)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (July)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (July)

Thursday, August 15, 2024

Global

The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Yemen).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum will hold its Energy Ministerial Meeting in Lima, Peru, though August 16. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (June)

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem to speak on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Greater Louisville Inc. Regional Economic Development Update.

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on "Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia' Center for the Restoration of Economic Data (CREED)" before the "From Rasters to Rows: New Methods and Applications in Automated Data Extraction" event.

·       USA Retail Sales (July)/ Initial Jobless Claims (August/10)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (August)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (August)/ Export Prices (July)/ Import Prices (July)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (August)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (August)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Capacity Utilization (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (August/09)/ NOPA Crush Report/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (June)/ Foreign Bond Investment (June)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (June)/ Fed Balance Sheet (August/14)

·       Colombia GDP Growth Rate Q2/ ISE Economic Activity (June)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (June)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is India Independence Day, marking the day in 1947 when Jawaharial Nehur, the first Prime Minister of India, raised the Indian flag above the Lahori Gate in Delhi.  Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to give a national speech.

·       South Korea will celebrate Liberation (or Independence) Day, a public holiday. According to Nikkei News, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol is expected to make a speech outlining his vision for unification with North Korea on the occasion of the South's independence day. Yoon's administration has been openly critical of the North's human rights abuses, particularly Pyongyang's insistence on developing ever-more powerful weapons as its citizens lack basic rights.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (July)/ Food Inflation (July)

·       Japan GDP Growth Annualized Prel Q2/ Foreign Bond Investment (August/10)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August/10)/ Capacity Utilization (June)/ Industrial Production Final (June)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)/ Employment Change (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ Participation Rate (July)

·       China House Price Index (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ NBS Press Conference

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Philippines Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Remittances (June)

·       Kazakhstan GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (July)

·       India Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Services PMI (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Liechtenstein National Day, celebrating when the Principality of Liechtenstein declared August 15 a public holiday in 1940 in response to Adolf Hitler declaring that small states had no right to exist.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain GDP Growth Rate Prel Q2/ GDP (June)/ Business Investment Prel Q2/ Goods Trade Balance (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Construction Output (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (July)/ Labour Productivity Q2

·       Hungary Construction Output (June)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (July)

·       Slovakia Core Inflation Rate (July)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (June)

·       Serbia Building Permits (June)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/09)/ Budget Balance (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli negotiators will attend hostage talks in either Doha, Qatar, or Cairo, Egypt, though it is unclear whether Hamas negotiators will attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (July)/ Wholesale Prices (July)

·       Israel Inflation Rate (July)/ M1 Money Supply (June)/ M1 Money Supply (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (June)

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)

·       Egypt Unemployment Rate Q2

Friday, August 16, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Dominican Republic President Luis Abinader will be inaugurated for his second term in office. Today is also Restoration Day in in the Dominican Republic, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (June)

·       Canada Housing Starts (July)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (June)/ Manufacturing Sales Final (June)/ Wholesale Sales Final (June)

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austin Goolsbee participates in a fireside chat with Angeles Investors in Chicago.

·       USA Building Permits Prel (July)/ Housing Starts (July)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (August)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/16)

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (June)/ Imports (June)

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi travels to Thailand for meetings with Foreign Minister Sangiampongsa.  The two nations have enjoyed close relations in the past, but Prime Minister Sretha Thavisin has increasingly sought to broaden relations with other nations in the face of China’s slowing economy (Thailand is a major tourist destination for Chinese).  This includes moving toward better relations with the US, which were strained after a military coup in 2014 – all of which is making Beijing nervous.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (July)/ PPI Input & Output Q2

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (August)/ Tertiary Industry Index (June)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (July)

·       Malaysia Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

·       Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/09)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (July)

·       Great Britain Retail Sales (July)

·       Switzerland Industrial Production Q2

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (June)

·       Serbia Current Account (June)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (July)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (July)/ GDP (July)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (June)/ SACCI Business Confidence (July)

·       Angola M3 Money Supply (July)

·       Ghana PPI (July)

Saturday, August 17, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India hosts the 3rd Global South Summit in New Delhi.  Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will chair the meetings.  More than 25 countries will be attendance – either in person or virtually and the topics will include climate change, development of alternative energy, and agricultural advancements.

·       The Indonesia Government will inaugurate Nusantara as its new capital.  It is also Indonesia Independence Day, marking when the Netherlands granted the country its freedom in 1945.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       In Zimbabwe, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) summit of heads of state and government  meet to discuss economic growth and development.

·       Today is Independence Day, marking when the country was granted its freedom from France in 1960.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, August 18, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Singapore, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong delivers the annual National Day Rally speech, his inaugural address after taking office on May 15. He is Singapore’s fourth prime minister and his becoming Prime Minister is the nation’s first leadership change in 20 years.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 1st Est Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.