The Global Week Ahead

Jul 28

July 28 - August 4, 2024

Much of the world is focused on the Olympic Games in Paris this week, while summer holidays are beginning for many in the Northern Hemisphere. But there are still plenty of important meetings and events happening this week around the world.

Asia will be a massive focus for the U.S. this coming week as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin conduct two separate “2+2” meetings – the first with their counterparts in Japan and the second with their counterparts in the Philippines. The two sets of meetings aim to bolster U.S. military alliances with the two countries significantly. Before the US-Japan meetings, the U.S. Defense Department announced the very significant establishment of a new U.S. military command in Japan, one of the most important restructurings in the U.S. command structure in Asia in decades. And then the week after next, Blinken and Austin will then host a 2+2 meeting with their Australian counterparts (August 6), further cementing the U.S.’ new enhanced security structure in the region.

Also this week, the European Union begins transferring the interest income from frozen Russian bank accounts to Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin has vowed to retaliate and is likely to confiscate Western financial assets and securities held in special accounts in Moscow.

However, the most significant events this week came from several of the G7 central banks. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee meets to discuss the economy and interest rate adjustments—a likely 25-basis point cut. The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are also meeting this week to decide interest rates. There is a good chance the Bank of Japan will raise rates while the Bank of England moves to cut rates.

Elsewhere on the global economic radar screen this week, markets will look at the U.S. jobs report on Friday, and JOLTS and ADP figures will also be released earlier in the week. In Europe, the Eurozone, Germany, and France release GDP figures and CPI reports this week.

Finally, returning to Asia, China releases PMIs and the Caixin manufacturing PMI this week and will give some further clarity to the struggling Chinese economy.

Below is what else we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, July 28, 2024

Global

Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Venezuela holds presidential elections.
Peru celebrates its Independence Day, with President Dina Boluarte scheduled to give a speech to Congress.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The United States and Japan will hold a 2+2 meeting of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin with Japanese Foreign Minister Yōko Kamikawa and Defense Minister Minoru Kihara in Tokyo, Japan. The meetings will focus on bolstering military cooperation between the US and Japan in the face of growing Chinese aggressive behavior in the region. In advance of the meetings, the US Defense Department announced the creation of a new command structure in Japan, overseeing the more than 50,000 US troops in Japan and empowered to work more closely with the growing Japanese defense structure.

· China’s Special Representative of the Chinese Government on Eurasian Affairs Li Hui will visit Brazil, South Africa, and Indonesia to conduct the fourth round of shuttle diplomacy on the War on Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

Indonesia Foreign Direct Investment Q2
Thailand Industrial Production (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni continues her state visit to China through July 31. Meloni, who also is the chair of the G7 this year, is seeking to improve relations with China after she pulled Italy out of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

· Russian President Vladimir Putin will attend a naval parade in St. Petersburg to celebrate Russia's Navy Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian will be sworn into office.

Economic Reports/Events –

Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (June)/ Private Bank Lending (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

President of the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste José Ramos-Horta will pay a state visit to China through July 31.
The South African Development Community will host the 7th Annual Industrialization Week in Harare, Zimbabwe.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Monday, July 29, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on Sudan

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil IGP-M Inflation (July)/ Gross Debt to GDP (June)/ Nominal Budget Balance (June)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (July)/ Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates

· Mexico Fiscal Balance (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida hosts a foreign ministers’ meeting – the 8th summit – of the Quad, Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, in Tokyo. The ministers are expected to oppose the growing militarization of the South China Sea, pledge further collaboration on preventing cyber-attacks in the region, and discuss the establishment and maintenance of resilient supply chains. The gathering will follow meetings between the Japanese, U.S., and South Korean defense ministers on Sunday and will set the stage for a Quad leaders' meeting in India later this year.

· Today is Wallis and Futuna Territory Day, celebrating the islands becoming a French Overseas Territory in 1961.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Taiwan Consumer Confidence (July)

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

· Malaysia PPI (June)

· Singapore Export Prices (June)/ Import Prices (June)/ PPI (June)

· China FDI (YTD) (June)

· Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The United Kingdom's new Labour Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, will unveil a Treasury analysis highlighting the fiscal situation her government has inherited from its Conservative predecessor, and she will announce reforms to the National Planning Policy Framework. She is expected to accuse the former Conservative Party of causing a £20 billion shortfall to the government budget.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Switzerland Retail Sales (June)

· Slovenia Retail Sales (June)

· Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (June)/ Mortgage Approvals & Lending (June)/ M4 Money Supply (June)/ Net Lending to Individuals (June)/ CBI Distributive Trades (July)

· Ireland GDP Growth Rate Prel Q2/ Retail Sales (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Chilean President Gabriel Boric will visit the United Arab Emirates seeking new investment and economic ties between the two countries.

Economic Reports/Events –

· IMF conducts its third review in advance of issuing a third tranche worth $820 million of an Egypt loan.

· Qatar M2 Money Supply (June)/ Total Credit Growth (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Inflation Rate (June)

· Israel Manufacturing Production (May)/ Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Kuwait M2 Money Supply (June)/ Private Bank Lending (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa M3 Money Supply (June)/ Private Sector Credit (June)

· Ghana Interest Rate Decision

· Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (June)

Tuesday, July 30, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on Central African Republic (CAR) sanctions.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil PPI (June)

· Mexico GDP Growth Rate Prel Q2

· USA Redbook (July/27)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (May)/ House Price Index (May)/ JOLTs Job Openings (June)/ CB Consumer Confidence (July)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (July)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (July/26)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The US and Philippines hold a 2+2 dialogue (foreign ministers and defense ministers), in Manila to discuss mutual diplomatic and security issues. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will meet with their Filipino counterparts Defense Minister Gilbert Teodoro and Foreign Minister Enrique Manalo. The meeting comes on the heels of similar talks between Manila and Tokyo in early July. The discussions aim to bolster the U.S.-Philippine alliance, which has deepened significantly under the Marcos Jr. administration as the country shifts its foreign policy closer to Washington.

· EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell visits Hanoi, where he will meet Vietnamese authorities to discuss foreign affairs, security and climate policy.

· Today is Vanuatu Independence Day, marking the day in 1980 when the country gained its independence from the joint rule of the UK and France.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Philippines PPI (June)

· Australia Building Permits Prel (June)/ Private House Approvals Prel (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez is expected to testify in the corruption probe of his wife, Begona Gomez. The Spanish First Lady has been accused of influence peddling and corruption after a complaint was filed by an anti-graft NGO.

Economic Reports/Events –

· France GDP Growth Rate Prel Q2/ Household Consumption (June)

· Hungary GDP Growth Rate Prel Q2

· Slovakia Business Confidence (July)/ Consumer Confidence (July)

· Spain GDP Growth Rate Flash Q2/ Inflation Rate Prel (July)/ Business Confidence (July)

· Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (July)

· Turkey Economic Confidence Index (July)

· Germany GDP Growth Rate Flash Q2/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (July)/ Bavaria CPI (July)/ Brandenburg CPI (July)/ Hesse CPI (July)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (July)/ Saxony CPI (July)/ Inflation Rate Prel (July)

· Italy GDP Growth Rate Adv Q2

· Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Flash Q2/ Economic Sentiment (July)/ Consumer Confidence Final (July)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (July)/ Industrial Sentiment (July)/ Selling Price Expectations (July)/ Services Sentiment (July)

· Greece PPI (June)

· Ireland Inflation Rate Prel (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel M1 Money Supply (June)/ Composite Economic Index (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Budget Balance (June)

Wednesday, July 31, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee announces its rate decision.

· The Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee rate-setting decision

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (July/26)/ ADP Employment Change (July)/ Employment Cost Index Q2/ Treasury Refunding Announcement/ Chicago PMI (July)/ Pending Home Sales (June)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (July/26)/ Fed Interest Rate Decision/ Fed Press Conference

· Brazil Unemployment Rate (June)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Canada GDP (May)

· Chile Copper Production (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Mexico Interest Rate Decision

· Colombia Unemployment Rate (June)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (June)

· Uruguay Balance of Trade (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet with Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong and the co-chairs of the US-Singapore Critical and Emerging Technology Dialogue in Singapore. The purpose of the meeting is to “advance initiatives to strengthen ties between our innovation ecosystems and reduce barriers to collaboration while protecting national security. The growing bilateral discussion regarding critical and emerging technologies further underscores the importance of the U.S.-Singapore strategic partnership in facilitating a free, open, connected, prosperous, secure, and resilient Indo-Pacific region.”

· Myanmar’s military dictatorship may call an extraordinary National Defense and Security Council meeting to decide whether to extend the state of emergency (which is renewed every six months).

Economic Reports/Events –

· The Bank of Japan announces its interest rate decision.

· Japan Unemployment Rate (June)/ Jobs to Applications ratio (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Industrial Production Prel (June)/ BoJ Interest Rate Decision/ BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report/ Consumer Confidence (July)/ Housing Starts (June)/ Construction Orders (June)

· New Zealand Building Permits (June)/ ANZ Business Confidence (July)

· South Korea Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

· Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (July)/ Monthly CPI Indicator (June)/ Housing Credit (June)/ Inflation Rate Q2/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q2/ Retail Sales (June)/ CPI Q2/ Private Sector Credit (June)/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (July)

· China NBS General, Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Singapore Bank Lending (June)/ Unemployment Rate Prel Q2/ Business Confidence Q2

· Malaysia M3 Money Supply (June)

· Thailand Current Account (June)/ Private Consumption (June)/ Retail Sales (May)

· Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Adv Q2

· Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Adv Q2

· Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)

· India Infrastructure Output (June)/ Government Budget Value (June)

· Pakistan Consumer Confidence (June)/ Consumer Confidence (July)

· Indonesia M3 Money Supply (July/12)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany Import Prices (June)/ Unemployed Persons (July)/ Unemployment Change (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

· Hungary PPI (June)

· France Inflation Rate Prel (July)/ PPI (June)

· Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (June)/ Tourism Revenues Q2/ Tourist Arrivals (June)

· Italy Industrial Sales (May)/ Inflation Rate Prel (July)/ PPI (June)

· Poland Inflation Rate Prel (July)

· Spain Current Account (May)

· Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (July)

· Slovenia Inflation Rate (July)

· Euro Area Inflation Rate Flash (July)/ CPI Flash (July)

· Greece Retail Sales (May)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

· Ireland Unemployment Rate (July)

· Serbia Balance of Trade (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Flash Q2/ Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

· Russia Unemployment Rate (June)/ Business Confidence (July)/ Real Wage Growth (May)/ Retail Sales (June)/ M2 Money Supply (June)/ GDP (June)

· Ukraine Current Account (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Prel Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· South Africa Balance of Trade (June)

· Kenya Inflation Rate (July)

· Egypt M2 Money Supply (June)

Thursday, August 1, 2024

Global

· Sierra Leon assumes the chair of the UN Security Council.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Democratic Party begins a virtual roll call vote window through August 7 to choose nominees for president and vice president.

· US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet with Mongolian Foreign Minister Battsetseg Batmunkh in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia.

· US tariff increases on an array of Chinese imports, including electric vehicles and their batteries, computer chips, and medical products, go into effect.

· Guyana celebrates Emancipation Day, marking the abolition of slavery by the British Empire in 1833.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)/ Business Confidence (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· USA Challenger Job Cuts (July)/ Initial Jobless Claims (July/27)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (July)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (July)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (July)/ Construction Spending (June)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders & Prices (July)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (July/26)/ Fed Balance Sheet (July/31)

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (June)

· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Uruguay Unemployment Rate (June)

· Peru Inflation Rate (July)

· Argentina Tax Revenue (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· China celebrates China Army Day, marking the founding of the People’s Liberation Army in 1927.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nikkei is reporting an estimated 40 million to 50 million Thai citizens will be able to register for that country's long-awaited digital wallet handout. Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin's signature election pledge faced delays for nearly a year as the government sought legal ways to finance the 500-billion-baht ($14 billion) program. A distribution date in the fourth quarter has yet to be set.

· Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (July)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Commodity Prices (July)

· Japan Stock Investment by Foreigners (July/27)/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (July)

· South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Indonesia Inflation Rate (July)/ Tourist Arrivals (June)

· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (July)

· Kazakhstan Current Account Q2/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)

· Hong Kong Retail Sales (June)

· Pakistan Inflation Rate (July)/ Wholesale Prices (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Union will transfer the tranche of interest earned in frozen Russian accounts to Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin has vowed to retaliate.

· Today is the 80th anniversary of the start of the Warsaw Uprising, when the city’s residents tried to oust the German army before it was occupied by the advancing Soviet forces.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee announces its interest rate decision.

· Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill will participate in an online Q&A on the UK economy and bank policies.

· Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (July)/ BoE Interest Rate Decision/ Monetary Policy Report/ MPC Vote Cut/ MPC Vote Hike/ MPC Vote Unchanged/ MPC Meeting Minutes

· Hungary Balance of Trade Final (May)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (July)/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/26)

· Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)/ New Car Sales (July)

· Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

· France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Greece HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Euro Area Unemployment Rate (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nigerian youth activists are planning a nationwide anti-government protest through August 10. Calling it “Ten Days of Rage,” the protests are over ongoing economic hardships.

· Today is Benin Independence Day, celebrating the country’s independence from France in 1960.

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (July)

· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (July)

Friday, August 2, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (July)/ Industrial Production (June)

· Mexico Unemployment Rate (June)/ Gross Fixed Investment (May)

· USA Unemployment Rate (July)/ Participation Rate (July)/ Factory Orders (June)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/02)/ Total Vehicle Sales (July)

· Paraguay Inflation Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Inflation Rate (July)

· Australia Home Loans (June)/ Investment Lending for Homes (June)/ PPI Q2

· Thailand Business Confidence (July)

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/26)

· Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Republic Day in North Macedonia, commemorating the Illinden Uprising and the first assembly of the anti-fascist Assembly for the National Liberation of Macedonia in the midst of World War II in 1944.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Romania PPI (June)

· Switzerland Inflation Rate (July)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (July)

· France Industrial Production (June)

· Spain Unemployment Change (July)/ Tourist Arrivals (June)

· Italy Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

· Slovenia Balance of Trade (June)

· Turkey Auto Production (July)/ Auto Sales (July)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, August 3, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· A six-month cease-fire between Colombia and the rebel group National Liberation Army is set to expire.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, August 4, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Cooks Islands Constitution Day, celebrating their independence from European colonial rule.

The Global Week Ahead

July 28 - August 4, 2024

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