the Global Week Ahead: September 25 - October 2, 2022

The coming week will see a number of elections around the world, most notably the first round of Brazil’s hard-fought presidential elections.  Also, this week,  Russia is expected to wrap up its sham referendums in Donetsk and Luhansk, formally annexing the regions as part of Russia.  We will also be closely watching two significant unscheduled events with significant geopolitical implications: The ongoing (and growing) protests and riots in Iran against the leadership in Iran and protests in Russia against President Putin’s mobilization of new troops for the war in Ukraine. 

 Here in Washington, President Biden hosts a US-Pacific Island Nation Summit to shore up relations and push back on China building stronger ties (and naval basing capacity) with these countries.

 On the global economic front, we are watching key unemployment numbers in the US later this week, several important economic figures out of China, and a slew of speeches by Federal Reserve Board members and European Central Bank board members. 

Finally, on a scientific note, we will watch Monday as NASA fires a rocket at an asteroid to try to knock it off course.  It is a test in case an asteroid is actually hurtling toward Earth – just like in the movies!

Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, September 25, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe expected to begin a five-day visit to Japan to discuss debt restructuring.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Jibun Bank’s  Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, Composite PMI (all for September),

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Philippine Budget Balance (August)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Russia continues to hold rushed referendums in the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (regions in Ukraine seized by Russia) formally annexing the regions to become part of Russia.  The votes are expected to last through September 27.

·       Italy holds general elections.

·       The UK Labour Party holds its annual conference in Liverpool.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       São Tomé and Príncipe hold parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 26, 2022:

Global

·       The Annual General Conference of the International Atomic Energy Agency members begins in Vienna, Austria.  Iran’s nuclear development as well as Russian President Putin’s recent threats to use nuclear weapons (as well as the ongoing Russian threat to nuclear reactors in Ukraine) will be top issues discussed.

·       The International Criminal Court begins the trial of accused perpetrators of the 2009 stadium massacre in Conakry, Guina.

·       Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year, is celebrated.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The UN Human Rights Council discuss Venezuela.  The Council released a scathing report on September 20th detailing the Venezuelan governments responsibilities for a massive number of crimes against humanity in an effort repress dissent in the country.

·       Colombia and Venezuela to reopen shared border for the first time in three years.

·       NASA will launch a spacecraft into an asteroid in an effort to shove it off its course.  The exercise is designed to prepare for the risk of asteroid that might be hurtling toward Earth (destroying our planet) can be deflected, saving the world (just like in the movies!)

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (August)

·       Brazil Central Bank BCB Focus Market Readout, Current Account (June/July/August), Foreign Direct Investment (June/July/August)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (August)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (July)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan Central Bank release of minutes of monetary policy meeting (July), Speech by Bank Governor Kuroda in Osaka to business leaders.

·       Hong Kong Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August)

·       Thailand Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (August)

·       Indonesia Foreign Direct Investment (Q3)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (August)

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (August)

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets to discuss food security issues arising from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  The Ukrainian Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food will join the discussion.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde gives introductory statement at a European Parliament hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs in Brussels.

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a speech at the Asociación Espańola de Directivos in Madrid.

·       ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta gives a speech at the Deutsche Bundesbank’s Payments and Securities Settlement in Europe Symposium in Frankfurt.

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (September), Ifo Current Conditions (September)

·       Spain PPI (August)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Lebanon’s parliament to discuss the budget after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) criticized the government’s reform efforts as insufficient.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Business Confidence (September), Capacity Utilization (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, September 27, 2022: 

Global

·       The UN Security Council meets to discuss the situation in Afghanistan and the UN’s mission there.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       White House Director of the National Economic Council Brian Deese to speak at The Economic Club of Washington DC on “The State of the US and Global Economy.”

·       NASA will launch Artemis 1, the largest and most powerful rocket launched by the agency, in a series of complex missions leading to building a long-term presence on the Moon.

·       The US Senate is expected to hold a vote on a continuing resolution to keep the government open until December.  Markets will be watching to see if the promised Oil/Gas Permitting Bill sponsored by Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) will be included in it.  A large number Congressional Progressive Democrats along with Republicans are opposing it.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Durable Goods Orders (August), Redbook (September), S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (July), New Home Sales (August), CB Consumer Confidence (September), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index (September(, Richmond Fed Services Index (September), Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (Septmber)

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes, IPCA mid-month CPI (September)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (August), Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (July)

·       Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (August)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan holds state funeral for former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Australia Retail Sales (August)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       UK’s Unite members employed at Felixstowe port (one of the UK’s largest ports) to begin a second eight-day strike.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a speech at the Barclays-CEPR International Monetary Policy Forum in London.

·       France Unemployment figures (August)

·       Eurozone Loans to Households (August), Loans to Companies (August)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria interest rate decision

·       Seychelles interest rate decision

·       South Africa non-farm payrolls, South African Reserve Bank quarterly bulletin for Q1

Wednesday, September 28, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US President Joe Biden to host the first US-Pacific Island Country Summit in Washington, DC.  The Summit is seen as an effort to counter China’s growing influence over key Pacific Island nations as recently seen with Beijing’s ties with the Solomon Islands.

·       The White House holds the Conference on Hunger, Nutrition and Health.  President Biden will host with a number of cabinet officials expected to speak.

·       The House January 6th Committee meets -potentially for the last time – to hear testimony from several witnesses.

·       The National Bank of Canada and Bloomberg hold the 10th Annual Canadian Finance Conference (today and the 29th) to discuss the future of Canadian financial and business landscape. The meeting is virtual.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell gives welcoming remarks at the 2022 Community Banking Research Conference in St. Louis, Missouri

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman speaks at the 2022 Community Banking Research Conference in St. Louis, Missouri on “The New Landscape for Banking Competition.”

·       US MBA Mortgage Indexes (September), Goods Trade Balance (August), Retail Inventories (August), Pending Home Sales (August)

·       Brazil PPI (August), Banking Lending (August), Net Payrolls (August)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       The Milken Institute Asia Summit 2022 will be held in Singapore (through September 28).

·       Germany’s Air Force to conduct joint-training exercises with the Japanese Air Force in Japan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (September), GDP (Q3), Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September(, Inflation Rate (September)

·       Japan Coincident Index (July), Leading Economic Index (July)

·       India Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       South Korea Business Confidence (September)

·       Thailand Interest Rate Decision

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       The Atlantic Council and the Atlantik-Brücke host an all-day virtual Frankfurt Forum on US-European Geoeconomics.  ECB President Cristine Lagarde will deliver the keynote address.

·       ECB Board Member Frank Elderson gives remarks at the Greens/EFA meeting in the European Parliament on the topic of “A European monetary policy for the planet and for the people.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (October)

·       France Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Italy Business Confidence (September), Consumer Confidence (September), Industrial Sales (July), Retail Sales (August)

·       Russia Real Wage Growth (July), Unemployment Rate (August), Corporate Profits (July), Industrial Production (August), Retail Sales (August)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Private Bank Lending (August), M3 Money Supply (August)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nigeria’s presidential campaign season officially commences.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, September 29, 2022:

Global

·       The UN Security Council meets to discuss the situation in Libya and UN efforts in the country.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo speaks at the Atlantic Council on “The CHIPS and Science Act and Competing with China”.  Raimondo is expected to shed new light on federal funding to further build up the US semiconductor industry.

·       Fortune Magazine hosts Fortune’s Global Sustainability Virtual Forum.  Former Vice President Al Gore as well as CalPERS CEO Marcie Frost are scheduled to speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Philip Lane participates in a Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland policy panel entitled “Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2022”.

·       US GDP Price Index (Q2), Growth Rate (Q2), Initial Jobless Claims (September), PCE Prices (Q2), Real Consumer Spending (Q2), Corporate Profits (Q2), GDP Sales (Q2)

·       Canada GDP (July and August), CFIB Business Barometer (September)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Mexico Interest Rate Decision

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China NBS Manufacturing PMI (September), Non-Manufacturing PMI (September), Caixin Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Japan Labor Force Survey, Industrial Production (September), Unemployment Rate (August), Retail Sales (August)

·       South Korea Construction Output (August), Industrial Production (August), Manufacturing Production (August), Retail Sales (August)

·       Malaysia PPI (August)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (August)

·       Singapore Export Prices (August), Import Prices (August)

·       Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (September)

·       Philippines PPI (August)

·       Australia Private Sector Credit (August)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (internal market and Industry) meetings to discuss the single market emergency instrument (SMEI) and the eco-design for sustainable products regulation (ESPR).

·       The City of London elections the new Lord Mayor.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta gives an introductory statement at the hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels.

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos gives an online speech on “The future of Central Banking” on the occasion of the 100th Anniversary of the Lietuvos banks organized by the Bank for International Settlements and the Bank of Lithuania in Vilnius.

·       ECB Board Member Frank Elderson gives a speech at the OMFIF’s Sustainable Policy Institute in Amsterdam on “moving beyond climate: integrating biodiversity into financial markets”

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks at the 2022 Research Workshop organized by the ECB on “Working Group on Stress Testing.”

·       ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives remarks and participates in a panel discussion on “Central bank as a pool of real-time data: the ‘Whys” and the ‘Hows” hosted by the Bank for International Settlements and the bank of Lithuania in Vilnius.

·       Germany Inflation Rate (September)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (September), Business Confidence (September)

·       Italy PPI (August)

·       Eurozone Economic Sentiment (September), Industrial Sentiment (September), Selling Price Expectations (September), Services Sentiment (September), Consumer Confidence (September)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Kuwait holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Economic Confidence (September), MPC Meeting Summary, FX Reserves (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (August), Private Sector Credit (August), M3 Money Supply (August)

Friday, September 30, 2022:

Global

·       The UN Security Council meets to discuss the ongoing UN security stabilization effort in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard gives remarks on “Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy” at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Federal Reserve Board Conference “Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy” in New York.

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governors Michelle Bowman speaks at the Institute of International Finance on “The Principles for Large Bank Supervision”

·       US Personal Income (August), PCE Price Index (August), Personal Spending (August), Michigan Consumer Sentiment/5 Year Inflation Expectations/Current Conditions Reports (September)

·       Brazil Unemployment Rate (August), Nominal Budget Balance (September)

·       Colombia Unemployment Figures (August), Interest Rate Decision, Cement Production (August)

·       Mexico Fiscal Balance (August)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Current Account (Q2)

·       Japan Consumer Confidence Index, New Housing Starts (September), Japan Finance Corporation Survey (October), Construction Orders (August)

·       India Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Cash Reserve Ratio, Government Budget Value (August), Current Account (Q2), External Debt (Q2), Infrastructure Output (August)

·       South Korea Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (September)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (August)

·       Thailand Business Confidence (September), Coincident Index (August), Retail Sales (July)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Extraordinary Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council meets to seek agreement on a proposed regulation on an emergency intervention to address high energy prices.

·       Today will be the last day paper 20- and 50-pound notes will be legal paper. They are being replaced by polymer notes.

·       UK’s Communications Workers Union begin two-day walkout (those employed by the Royal Mail).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a panel discussion on “the Fight Against Inflation” hosted by the La Toja Forum in La Toja, Spain.

·       Germany Retail Sales (August), Unemployment Rate (August), Import Prices (August)

·       Great Britain GDP Rate (Q2), Business Investment (Q2), BoE Consumer Credit (August), Mortgage Lending (August), Net Lending to Individuals (August)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (August), KOF Leading Indicators (September)

·       France Inflation Rate (September), Household Consumption (August), PPI (August)

·       Spain Retail Sales (August), Current Account (July)

·       Italy Unemployment Rate (August), Inflation Rate (September)

·       Poland Inflation rate (September)

·       Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Q2), Inflation Rate (September), CPI (September)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (August)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria FX Reserves (September)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (September), Balance of Trade (August)

Saturday, October 1, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

China celebrates the founding of the People’s Republic of China and commences Golden Week national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Latvia holds parliamentary elections.

·       UK’s RMT and Asief (rail workers) unions begin first of two 24-hour strikes over pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany institutes minimum wage increase to 12 euros an hour.

·       UK’s energy regulator, Ofgem, commences price cap on energy process.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nigeria celebrates National Day holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 2, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil holds general elections for president and parliament (first round).  If no one wins more than 50 percent in the first round, a run-off is held on October 30th.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Australia daylight savings begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q3), Tankan Small Manufacturers (Q3), Tankan Large All Industry Outlook (Q3), Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions, Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Singapore URA Property Index (Q3)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (September)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Bosnia and Herzegovina hold general elections.

·       Bulgaria holds parliamentary elections (the fourth in two years).

·       London hosts the London Marathon.

·       The UK Conservative Party holds their party conference in Birmingham.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (September)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.