About those rumors of a coup in China…

Over the weekend, the internet was saturated with reports of an apparent coup in China, removing President Xi Jinping from power. The rumor, of course, comes in advance of the October 16th Congress of the Communist Party of China (CCP), where Xi will be given an unprecedented third term as President.   

We spoke with several sources about the rumor and the risk of an actual coup and can find no validity to any of these rumors. US officials we talked to Sunday were not particularly concerned about the risk of a coup. 

As we understand it, Xi is likely self-quarantining following his attendance at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting in Uzbekistan. We also know the schedule and invitations for the Congress were issued this past weekend, and Xi is among the listed attendees. Xi's name is all over the schedule – clearly, not something that would happen if Xi had been removed from power.

What is the genesis of the rumors, then?   One US government official pointed to Falun Gong, the quasi-religious dissent organization based in Deerpark, New York. 

The group has been the subject of intense suppression inside China and a ferocious critic of Beijing worldwide. The Falun Gong owns The Epoch Times (which has published stories speculating about a possible coup). 

Nevertheless, all the news around Bejing’s power machinations is worth watching as we approach the Congress.  The Congress will undoubtedly be a historical event simply for re-electing Xi for a third term. But we are likely to see other significant shifts in the power apparatus in Beijing, including Xi being granted the title of "chairman" – a title not used since Chinese Communist Party founder Mao Zedong and putting him on par with Mao.

Granting Xi such a title would be beyond simply rewarding him with a new honorific. Many observers believe it would signal a rejection of a significant portion of the Post-Mao reforms and a new path – politically, socially, and economically – under Xi and his philosophy which was inserted into the Chinese constitution in 2017. 

It is formally known as "Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era" - or "Xi Jinping Thought" for short - and is focused on a return to a more strict form of Marxist-Leninism and the overall goals of communism. The Chinese Ministry of Education via educational research institutes, writings, and classroom teaching.  

We expect other major announcements to come out of the CCP Congress. But a coup removing Xi from power will likely not be one of them.

We hope this is helpful.  Please let us know if you have any questions.