The Global Week Ahead: August 7 - 14, 2022
The Week Ahead: Watching for more Chinese reactions to Speaker Pelosi’s Taiwan visit; Colombia swears in a new president; Iran launches satellites with help of Russia; the US braces for tough economic numbers; President Biden signs the CHIPS Act into law
After an extraordinary few months of intense geopolitical and economic events, a relatively quiet August in the northern hemisphere has begun to settle in. Relations between the US and China continue to be tense following US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's (D-CA) visit to Taiwan.
We will be watching closely for any new measures implemented by Beijing against the US, Taiwan, and other nations beyond those already announced in retaliation of the visit. Those actions include China’s largest military maneuvers in the Taiwan Strait in almost 30 years, canceling scheduled bilateral meetings with US political and military officials and Japanese officials, and trade sanctions on several Taiwanese goods (which are at more than 2,000 specific Taiwanese products).
We are also watching US Secretary of State Blinken's Africa trip, aimed at countering growing Russian and Chinese influence in the region. Here is everything we are watching around the world in the coming week:
Sunday, 7 August 2022:
Global
Islamic holiday of Ashura begins.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
Colombia’s President-elect Gustavo Petro sworn into office for a four-year term.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken begins tour of Sub-Saharan Africa with a visit to Johannesburg, South Africa. From there he travels to Rwanda and then the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Argentina’s Union of Workers of the Popular Economy expected to hold demonstrations demanding universal basic income.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Asia:
Political/Social Events –
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi travels to Bangladesh (August 7th) and Mongolia (August 8th) to discuss infrastructure cooperation via China’s proposed Global Security Initiative (which is seen as a counter the US-led Quad).
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Europe:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Middle East:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events
Nothing significant to report.
Monday, 8 August 2022:
Global
The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Peace and Security in Africa.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman will meet with senior officials in Australia and then New Zealand on August 9th to discuss how to further strengthen security and economic in the region.
The US is expected to receive 332,000 pounds of infant formula as part of the Biden Administration’s “Operation Fly Formula.”
Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani will testify in front of a grand jury investigating attempts by former President Trump to overturn Georgia’s 2020 election results.
Economic Reports/Events –
Brazil’s central bank market readout
Asia:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Japan trade balance (June), bank lending (July), Economy Watchers Survey
Taiwan exports/imports/trade balance (July
New Zealand RBNZ Survey of Expectations (Q3)
Indonesia consumer confidence (July)
Japan’s Eco Watchers Survey (Current and Outlook July)
Europe:
Political/Social Events –
Economic Reports/Events –
UK retail sales monitor (July)
Middle East:
Political/Social Events –
Turkey holds its 13th annual ambassadors meeting in Ankara.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Tanzania inflation report (July)
Tuesday, 9 August 2022:
Global
Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
Numerous leading social organizations in Guatemala to hold two days of protests against President Alejandro Giammattei’s economic policies.
President Joe Biden to sign the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022 into law.
Connecticut, Vermont, Wisconsin, and Minnesota will hold primary elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey (July), unit labor costs (Q2), Redbook (August), IDB/TIPP Economic Optimism ((August), consumer inflation expectations (July)
Argentina industrial production (June)
Brazil Coporm Meeting minutes, inflation rate (July)
Mexico inflation rate (July), core inflation figures (July)
Asia:
Political/Social Events –
Nepal’s Foreign Minister Narayan Khadka travels to Beijing, China for consultation meetings.
Singapore celebrates Independence Day.
Economic Reports/Events –
Japan machine tool orders (July) M2, M3
Philippines GDP (Q2), exports/imports/trade balance (June), industrial production (June)
Malaysia industrial production (June), manufacturing sales (June)
Australia CBA household spending (July), WBC/MI consumer sentiment (August), NAB Business Survey (July)
Indonesia retail sales (June)
South Korea unemployment rate (July)
Europe:
Political/Social Events –
Ferry workers on the Isle of Wright will go on a day-long strike over wages.
Economic Reports/Events –
Middle East:
Political/Social Events –
The Islamic Solidarity Games begin in Konya, Turkey.
The Iranian Space Agency, working with Russia’s Roscosmos, is scheduled to launch weather data-focused satellite from Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. The satellites, however, are also expected to assist Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine.
Economic Reports/Events –
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
Economic Reports/Events –
Seychelles interest rate decision
South Africa non-farm payrolls, South African Reserve Bank quarterly bulletin for Q1
Wednesday, 10 August 2022:
Global
Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
US CPIs (July), inflation rate (July), real average hourly earnings (July), wholesale inventories (June)
Brazil retail sales (June)
Asia:
Political/Social Events –
Australia’s New South Wales rail workers begin work stoppages to protest against wages and working conditions.
Thailand expected to see university students protest in Bangkok for “a return to democracy in society.”
Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is anticipated to announce a reshuffling of his Cabinet.
Economic Reports/Events –
China CPIs, PPIs (July), M2
Japan PPIs (July)
South Korea unemployment rate (July)
Bank of Thailand meets on interest rates
Europe:
Political/Social Events –
Employees of Ireland’s Armagh City, Banbridge, and Craigavon Borough Council will go on strike for a day (affecting garbage collection, planning, and leisure services)
Economic Reports/Events –
Germany inflation figures (July)
Italy inflation rate figures (July)
UK RICS house price balance (July)
Russia inflation rate (July)
Middle East:
Political/Social Events –
Economic Reports/Events –
Saudi Arabia industrial production (June)
Turkey unemployment rate (June), participation rate (June)
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
South Africa’s opposition parties to meet. They are expected to announced the establishment of a committee to investigate alleged wrongdoings by President Cyril Ramaphosa regarding the Phala Phala Farm scandal.
Economic Reports/Events –
South Africa business confidence
Ghana inflation report
Rwanda inflation report
Thursday, 11 August 2022:
Global
The International Energy Agency and OPEC are scheduled to publish their monthly oil market reports.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
Brazil braces for a series of pro-democracy/anti-President Jair Bolsonaro demonstrations across the country.
The US Federal Election Commission will vote on whether Google’s proposed program to help prevent campaign emails from being directed to spam folders should be approved or if they violate campaign finance laws.
Economic Reports/Events –
US PPIs (July), initial jobless claims
Brazil business confidence (August)
Mexico central bank interest rate decision
Argentina inflation rate (July)
Asia:
Political/Social Events –
Japan celebrates Mountain Day (a public holiday).
Economic Reports/Events –
The Indonesia Shopping Festival 2022 begins and will last through August 21st aimed at boosting nationwide consumption.
South Korea import and export prices (July)
Australia MI consumer inflation expectations (August)
New Zealand housing report (July)
Europe:
Political/Social Events –
The Russian Parliament (Duma) is going to hold a previously unplanned council meeting.
Economic Reports/Events –
Germany current account balance (June)
UK RICS house price balance (July), Heathrow Airport Monthly traffic figures
Middle East:
Political/Social Events –
Tunisia’s General Labour Union to hold coordinated strikes in several food-related industries over wages and working conditions.
Economic Reports/Events –
Turkey current account (June), FX reserves (August)
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Rwanda interest rate decision
South Africa mining and manufacturing production reports (June)
Namibia inflation report (July)
Friday, 12 August 2022:
Global
Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
The US House of Representatives will return from recess to vote on the Inflation Reduction Act (Build Back Better-lite).
Economic Reports/Events –
US University of Michigan survey (August), import and export price index (July)
Asia:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
China vehicle sales (July), foreign direct investment (July), M2 money supply (July)
India CPI (Q2), industrial production (June), inflation rate (July), industrial production (June), passenger vehicles sales (July)
Malaysia GDP (Q2), current account balance (Q2)
New Zealand business manufacturing PMI (July), food price index (July)
Indonesia car sales (July)
Europe:
Political/Social Events –
Scotland’s Glasgow subway workers expected to strike over wages.
Economic Reports/Events –
France unemployment rate (Q2), inflation rate (July)
Spain inflation rate (July)
UK GDP (June & Q2), construction output (June), industrial and manufacturing production (June), index of services, trade balance (July)
Italy trade balance (June)
Eurozone industrial production (June)
Middle East:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Turkey industrial production (June), retail sales (June)
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Uganda interest rate decision
Saturday, 13 August 2022:
Americas
Political/Social Events –
Hawaii holds primary elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Asia:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Europe:
Political/Social Events –
Northern Ireland marks the anniversary of the Siege of Derry, imposed by King James II in 1689, with a parade in Londonderry.
UK train drivers from nine rail companies expected to strike over wages.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Middle East:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Sunday, 14 August 2022:
Global
Americas
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events -
Nothing significant to report.
Asia:
Political/Social Events –
Pakistan celebrates its 75th Independence Day, a public holiday.
Economic Reports/Events –
China house index (July), industrial production (July), retail sales (July), unemployed rate (July)
Europe:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Middle East:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.