What Does the New ABC/Ipsos Poll Tell Us About the November Elections?

A newly released ABC/Ipsos poll caught our attention this weekend. While there has been a cascade of brutally bad polls for President Biden and Democrats in general, this poll may suggest there is a slight reconsideration among voters.

The poll clearly shows Republicans are more trusted to handle key issues like the economy, inflation, and crime. Moreover, the pattern shows that the same voters polled are enthusiastic about voting in the midterms this November - a continued negative for Democrats.

But the poll also showed that 1/3 of those polled - particularly independents - do not trust either party to do a particularly good job. Our read of this is Democrats have room to claw back what were thought to be lost voters, and Republicans still have a lot of work to do to win by the margins they and many in their base think they will be in November.

The poll shows - as so many other polls have shown - that President Joe Biden’s job approval rating holds steady across many issues, but he’s touching historic lows. The one bright spot for President Biden is his handling of coronavirus (56%). The negative? 29% percent approve of his handling of inflation, 37% approve of his handling of the overall economy, and 43% approve of his handling of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Those figures will be incredibly hard to turn around between now and November. And if gas prices and food prices begin to spike again, they will only get worse.

The upshot is we now expect a particularly intense three-month sprint to November. There is little time for Congress to do much legislatively between now and then to alleviate inflation/broader economic concerns, and the so-called Inflation Reduction Act (passed by the Senate yesterday and expected to be passed by the House this Friday) will have virtually no impact on actual inflationary pressures. Moreover, voters broadly will not see or feel any significant benefits before the mid-terms. For Democrats, the legislative victory may be something of a tonic to energize Democratic voters who have been dismayed by the lack of success on many hoped-for agenda items - particularly among the Progressive wing of the Democratic Party.

Finally, we would argue polling going forward begins to take a sharper focus and, we believe, will be more telling and indicative than they have been did in recent months. Buckle up, everyone. As we said, it is going to be a very intense three months ahead.

You can access the ABC/Ipsos press release HERE and the toplines/details of the poll HERE.