The Global Week Ahead
June 2 - 9, 2024
This is the week of big election results, which will have a big impact on markets. Mexico, India, and the European Parliament all have elections this week. The outcome in two of them—Mexico and India—is pretty much assured for the ruling parties, but the margin of victory is critically important to the market outlook for both countries.
In Mexico, former Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum is ahead in all polls. But her opponent, Xóchitl Gálvez, has run a smart campaign and put reforms and economic development on the nation, putting serious pressure on Sheinbaum and the Moreno Party coalition. Interestingly, Sheinbaum is seen as possibly being more left-wing than current President Andres Manual Lopez Obrador (AMLO), but voter pressure may keep her leftist tilt in check.
In India, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appear to be on the cusp of an enormous victory, picking up even more seats in parliament than before and potentially paving the way for Modi to push through sweeping reforms highly attractive to investors.
Finally, in Europe, voters across the European Union will vote for members of the European Parliament. Polls suggest the result could be a significant right-wing tilt of the EU Parliament. It will also decide who the next EC President will be (likely re-election of current President Ursula von der Leyden) and the entire European Commission.
We would note two important and somber anniversaries this week, one ensuring freedom and the other crushing it: The first being the 80th Anniversary of D-Day on June 6 and the second 35th Anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre in Beijing.
Looking at the economic radar screen this week, markets will be watching the European Central Bank's decision on interest rates on Thursday. Elsewhere in Europe, Germany releases industrial production figures, factory orders, and the latest trade balance numbers.
In the US, the jobs report coming out Friday is being closely watched by market participates in advance of the Federal Reserve Board meeting in two weeks. Canada’s Reserve Bank meets on interest rates.
Turning to Asia, China releases the Caixin PMIs and the May trade balance. In Japan, the Ministry of Finance’s Q1 Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations and the Monthly Labor Survey for April are released.
Here is what else we are watching around the world this week:
Sunday, June 2, 2024
Global
· OPEC+ ministers meet via videoconference to assess oil output.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Mexico holds presidential, senatorial, and chamber of deputy elections. Claudia Sheinbaum (ruling party MORENA) is expected to win against her opponent, Xochitl Galvez (opposition party PAN). You can track the election results HERE.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Serbia reruns Belgrade’s elections which were held in December. The rerun comes as a result of complaints of widespread voter fraud.
· Italy celebrates Republic Day today, marking the day in 1946 when the country voted to become a republic following the end of World War II.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· The International Air Transport Association holds its annual meeting in Dubai through June 4.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Monday, June 3, 2024
Global
· The Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will meet in Vienna to discuss Iran’s nuclear development and the situation in Ukraine.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· President Biden’s son, Hunter, goes on trial for illegal firearms possession.
· Brazil will host the International Conference on Renewable Energy Technologies in Teresina.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Mexico Business Confidence (May)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)
· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (April)
· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Balance of Trade (May)/ BCB Focus Market Readout
· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)
· USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (May)
· Uruguay Unemployment Rate (April)
· Argentina Tax Revenue (May)
· Peru Inflation Rate (May)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (May)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM (May)
· Japan Capital Spending YoY (Q1)/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (May)
· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Tourist Arrivals (April)
· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)
· South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)
· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)
· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)
· China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May)
· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (May)
· Kazakhstan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)
· Thailand Business Confidence (May)
· Pakistan Balance of Trade (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Wholesale Prices (May)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The UN’s Bonn Climate Change Conference begins in Bonn, Germany. The meeting is in advance of the COP28 meetings.
· The Oslo Freedom Forum takes place in Oslo, Norway. The posthumous Award of the Oslo Freedom Forum Human Rights Prize will be given to Alexei Navalny.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (May)
· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)
· France Budget Balance (April)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (May)
· Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (May)
· Spain Tourist Arrivals (April)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May)
· Turkey Inflation Rate (May)/ Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (May)/ PPI (May)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Prel (May)
· Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May)
· Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (May)
· Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (May)
· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI May
· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (May)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)
· Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (May)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· The White House is set to send a delegation of National Security Council staff to Egypt to hold a trilateral meeting between U.S., Egyptian and Israeli officials in Cairo next week to discuss the reopening of the Rafah crossing and a plan for securing the border between Egypt and Gaza Nothing significant to report.
· Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan will meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing. They are expected to discuss enhanced trade opportunities as well as the situation in Gaza and in Ukraine. Another key point they will discuss is harmonizing China’s Belt and Road Initiative with the Trans-Caspian East-West Middle Corridor Initiative. These discussions come as developments in Ukraine, Gaza, and the Red Sea impact global supply line security and some transportation projects. Fidan will also meet with Chinese Vice President Han Zheng.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Uganda observes Martyrs Day, commemorating when 45 Christians chose execution over renouncing their faith in 1887.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (May)
Tuesday, June 4, 2024
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin meets with his counterparts in Cambodia. In recent years, Cambodia has grown closer to China. China has been sending migrant workers to Cambodia, reaching almost 300,000 workers. Penh.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM (May)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1)
· Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (March)
· USA Redbook (June/01)/ JOLTs Job Openings & Quits (April)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/31)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (May)/ Total Vehicle Sales (May)
· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI/ Exports (April)
· Paraguay Inflation Rate (May)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· India’s national election process concludes. The seven-phase general election began on April 19 with voting being held for 543 seats in the Lok Sbah (the lower house of Parliament). An estimated 970 million people were eligible to vote. More than one million polling stations were set up and 15 million employees of federal and state governments conducted the polls. Poll officials went to great lengths to ensure everyone who could vote did vote. Officials used helicopters, boats, mules, and even elephants to reach remote areas. A party needs to win a majority of 272 seats to form a government. The ruling Baharatiya Janata Party (BJP) went into the election with 282 seats and is looking to expand that number. You can track the election results HERE.
· South Africa hosts the Korea-Africa Summit and the Korea-Africa Business Sumit (on June 5) in Seoul. African leaders will gather to discuss with South Korean leaders how to improve trade and economic relations.
· Pakistan Foreign Minister Shehbaz Sharif meets with Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Beijing. The meeting is expected to focus on expanding the multi-billion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which is critical to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, giving China access to Pakistan’s ports.
· Today is the 35th anniversary of the crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrators in Tiananmen Square.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea Inflation Rate (May)
· India General Elections Results
· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)
· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)
· Australia Company Gross Profits QoQ (Q1)/ Business Inventories QoQ (Q1)/ Current Account (Q1)/ Net Exports Contribution to GDP (Q1)/ Retail Sales MoM Final (April)
· New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (June/04)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Labor Party Leader Sir Keir Starmer will debate on ITV in their first election debate.
Economic Reports/Events –
· European Central Bank Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo participates in a seminar entitled "Big Techs in Finance: The European Union Must React!" organized by the Association Europe-Finances-Régulations (AEFR) in Paris.
· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives a speech at "Die Woche der Umwelt 2024, zusammen für Klimaneutralität" organized by the Deutsche Bundesstiftung Umwelt (DBU) in Berlin.
· Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (May)
· Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (May)
· Romania PPI (April)
· Hungary GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)
· Switzerland Inflation Rate (May)
· Slovakia Real Wages YoY (Q1)
· Spain Unemployment Change (May)
· Germany Unemployment Rate (May)
· Slovenia Balance of Trade (April)
· Euro Area Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (May)
· Qatar Financial Centre PMI (May)/ Balance of Trade (April)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· African leaders will gather in Seoul for the 2024 Korea-Africa
· Zambia’s bondholders will hold a final vote on Tuesday on a $3 billion restructuring deal aimed at creating fiscal space for the southern African nation that defaulted in 2020.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Egypt S&P Global PMI (May)
· South Africa GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1)
Wednesday, June 5, 2024
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo will travel to Singapore to participate in the Indo-Pacific Framework Clean Energy Investor Forum, which runs through June 6. She will then participate in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework Ministerial meetings.
· The Inaugural Joint Angolan American Defense Cooperation Agreement begins in Washington and runs through June 6.
Economic Reports/Events –
· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/31)/ ADP Employment Change (May)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (May)/ ISM Services PMI (May)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (May/31)
· Brazil Industrial Production (April)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (May)
· Mexico Consumer Confidence (May)
· Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision/Press Conference
· Canada Labor Productivity QoQ (Q1)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (May)/
· Uruguay Inflation Rate (May)
· Argentina Industrial Production (April)
· Colombia PPI (May)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)
· New Zealand Export Prices QoQ (Q1)/ Import Prices QoQ (Q1)/ Terms of Trade QoQ (Q1)
· Australia Ai Group Industry Index (May)/ Judo Bank Services & Composite PMI Final (May)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1)
· Japan Average Cash Earnings (April)/ Overtime Pay (April)/ Jibun Bank Services & Composite PMI Final (May)
· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (May)
· Singapore S&P Global PMI (May)/ Retail Sales (April)/ SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (May)
· Philippines Inflation Rate (May)
· China Caixin Services & Composite PMI (May)
· Thailand Inflation Rate (May)
· India HSBC Services & Composite PMI Final (May)
· Kazakhstan S&P Global Services PMI (May)
· Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The St. Petersburg International Economic Forum begins and runs through June 8. Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to speak.
· Denmark celebrates Constitution Day, commemorating the day in 1849 when the first Constitution was signed. Workers get the second half of the day off and shops close to celebrate.
Economic Reports/Events –
· European Central Bank Board Member Kerstin af Jochnick participates in a fireside chat at the 28th Goldman Sachs European Financial Conference in Madrid.
· ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates on a panel discussion at the 23rd annual IMF-FED-WB.
· Russia S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (May)/ PPI (May)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ Business Confidence (May)/ Real Wage Growth (March)/ Retail Sales (April)/ GDP (April)
· Hungary Balance of Trade Prel (April)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
· France Industrial Production MoM (April)/ HCOB Services & Composite PMI (May)
· Spain HCOB Services Composite PMI (May)
· Italy HCOB Services & Composite PMI (May)
· Germany HCOB Services & Composite PMI (May)
· Euro Area HCOB Services & Composite PMI (May)/ PPI (April)/ European Parliament Election
· Great Britain S&P Global Services & Composite PMI Final
· Poland Interest Rate Decision (June)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (May)
· Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (May)
· Israel Tourist Arrivals (May)
· Jordan PPI (April)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (May)
· South Africa S&P Global PMI (May)
· Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (May)/ Interest Rate Decision
· Ghana S&P Global PMI (May)
Thursday, June 6, 2024
Global
· The UN General Assembly is expected to elect five non-permanent members to the UN Security Council. The likely new members are Denmark, Greece, Pakistan, Panama, and Somalia, and they will serve for two-year terms.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· President Biden will travel to France to participate in the D-Day commemoration ceremonies.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook at the Girls Global Academy 2024 Commencement Ceremony, University of the District of Columbia, Washington, D.C.
· USA Challenger Job Cuts (May)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Initial Jobless Claims (June/01)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (May/31)
· Mexico Auto Production (May)
· Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Ivey PMI s.a (May)
· Brazil Car Production MoM (May)
· Ecuador Inflation Rate (May)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Toyoaki Nakamura meets with local leaders and gives and speech in Sapporo, Japan.
· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (June/01)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (June/01)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)
· Philippines Unemployment Rate (April)
· Australia Balance of Trade (April)/ Investment Lending for Homes (April)
· Taiwan Inflation Rate (May)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The European Union Parliamentary elections take place through June 9. The election is expected to result in a strong right-wing surge of members. Once the new parliament is seated in September, they will choose and approve new European Commissioners and also nominate the President of the European Commission (currently, Ursula von der Leyden, who is running for re-election). You can follow the results HERE.
· French President Emmanuel Macron will host world leaders in Normandy to commemorate the anniversary of D-Day. Macron has angered allies by inviting a representative of the Russian government to attend. Ukrainian President Zelensky is expected to attend, as well.
· Nothing significant to report.
· Today is Sweden National Day. Financial markets are closed.
Economic Reports/Events –
· The European Central Bank meets to discuss monetary policy. There will be a press conference afterward.
· Ireland AIB Services PMI (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)
· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (May)
· Romania Retail Sales (April)
· Hungary Retail Sales (April)
· Slovakia GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)/ Retail Sales (April)
· Spain Industrial Production (April)
· Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (May)/ Retail Sales (April)/Marginal Lending Rate
· France HCOB Construction PMI (May)
· Germany HCOB Construction PMI (May)
· Italy HCOB Construction PMI (May)/ Retail Sales (April)
· Great Britain S&P Global Construction PMI (May)
· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/31)
· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Business Confidence (May)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Current Account (Q1)
· Nigeria Balance of Trade (February)/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Balance of Trade (January)
· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)
Friday, June 7, 2024
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)
· Mexico Inflation Rate (May)
· Canada Unemployment Rate (May)/ Participation Rate (May)/ Capacity Utilization (Q1)
· USA Unemployment Rate (May)/ Participation Rate (May)/ Average Weekly Hours (May)/ Wholesale Inventories MoM (April)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (June/07)/ Consumer Credit Change (April)
· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (May)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Japan’s Self-Defense Force (SDF) will participate in the US military’s “Valiant Shield” military exercises through June 18. The exercises normally take place around Guam, the Northern Marianas Islands, and Palau.
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· New Zealand Manufacturing Sales YoY (Q1)
· Japan Household Spending (April)/ Coincident Index Prel (April)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (April)
· Philippines Industrial Production (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)
· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (May)
· China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)
· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)
· Thailand Consumer Confidence (May)
· India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/31)
· Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)
· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)
· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· NATO’s Baltic Operations 2024 exercises begin in Lithuania.
· Today is Sette Giurno in Malta, a national holiday. It celebrates nothing in particular – it’s just a day off for everyone.
Economic Reports/Events –
· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in Atelier Maurice Allais 2024 organized by Fondation Maurice Allais in Paris.
· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates on a panel discussion at the Federal Ministry of Finance in Berlin.
· Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Industrial Production MoM (April)
· Romania GDP Growth Rate YoY 2nd Est (cQ1)
· Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (May)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (May)
· Hungary Industrial Production YoY Prel (April)/ Budget Balance (May)
· France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Current Account (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)
· Slovakia Balance of Trade (April)
· Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)
· Euro Area Employment Change YoY Final (Q1)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY 3rd Est (Q1)/ European Parliament Election
· Greece Balance of Trade (April)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1)
· Ireland Current Account (Q1)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)/ GNP YoY (Q1)/ Industrial Production (April)
· Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)
· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)
· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (May)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)/ Business Confidence (Q2)
Saturday, June 8, 2024
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· French President Emmanuel Macron will host President Biden for an official state visit to France. They are expected to discuss the situation in Ukraine and Macron may use the occasion to announce France is sending military trainers to Ukraine.
· Ireland holds local elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Euro Area European Parliament Election
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a deadline set by National Unity leader and war cabinet member Bennie Gantz to submit a six-point plan for post-war Gaza. Gantz has said that if Netanyahu fails to do this, Gantz’s centrist party will withdraw from the governing coalition and likely trigger a new election. According to recent polls, close to 70 percent of Israeli voters want Netanyahu to step down and new elections to be held soon.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Sunday, June 9, 2024
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China Vehicle Sales (May)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Bulgaria holds parliamentary elections.
· Belgium holds parliamentary and regional elections.
· Germany holds municipal elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Today is National Heroes Day in Uganda, honoring the estimated 500,000 people who died in the Uganda Bush War that took place between 1981 and 1986.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.