Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis, as well as book recommendations, travel observations, and cultural experiences - all of which we hope will be of interest to you.

Francis Kelly 11/10/24 Francis Kelly 11/10/24

The Global Week Ahead

Preparing for the 2nd Trump Presidency, Peru Hosts the APEC Summit and Brazil Hosts theG20 Leaders While a Muted COP29 Begins, and Markets Wait for A Slew of Major Economic Reports

November 13 - 17, 2024

The political world shook last Tuesday when former President Donald Trump won a sweeping victory with enough of a coattail to help carry Republicans to win control of the U.S. Senate and – as of this writing – likely holding onto a razor-thin majority of the U.S. House of Representatives The immediate fall-out has been a massive spike in geopolitical assessments in major capitals around the world, trying to get a handle on the potential impact of the return of the Trump foreign economic policy – particularly one that is now threatening across-the-board tariffs on any country Trump believes is not dealing fairly with the U.S.

The clearest directional indicator of where and how Trump is going to move on these policies will be found in his cabinet appointments. We expect the President-elect will move swiftly this coming week to begin filling out his cabinet while pressing the Republican Senate to rapidly accelerate the confirmation process as soon as the Senate is sworn into office on January 3. Why the heightened state of urgency? Our view is that Trump is a "lame duck" who cannot run for re-election in 2028. At best, according to Trump staffers we have spoken to, Trump understands he has a solid two-to-two and half years to move on his agenda before the 2028 election cycle starts up, slowing down Washington's political legislative and regulatory agendas (as they do with processes again. He's going to be a man on a mission, we have been told, to move hard and fast, more than any other President we have seen.

Also, this week, the APEC Summit begins in Peru. The event highlights the growing political and trade relations between Latin America and the Indo-Pacific. Chinese President Xi will be in attendance and will use the trip to inaugurate the controversial Chancay port in Peru. The U.S. is concerned – as are some Peruvian leaders and other regional leaders – the port, which is owned and operated by the Chinese – could be used to support Chinese Naval operations in the region.

President Biden will also be in Peru for the APEC Summit, part of a six-day trip to Peru and Brazil. While in Brazil, he will attend the G20 Summit, hold bilateral meetings with Brazil's President Lulu, and visit the Amazon Rain Forest to advocate for faster policy responses to Climate Change.

While all this is happening in Peru and Brazil, the United Nations' COP29 Summit begins in Azerbaijan. This meeting seems to be on track to be less ambitious and more muted than previous COP Summits. A number of global investment banks—normally regular and active attendees at COP meetings—are not attending. While an estimated 197 countries will be represented, far fewer national leaders will be in attendance than in prior years.

Looking at the global economic radar screen, markets are looking out for a raft of economic reports in the U.S., EU, China, and Japan. Despite being a shortened week for U.S. markets due to Veterans Day, markets will be intensely focused on the CPI print on Wednesday, and the PPI will be released on Thursday. Also, U.S. retail sales and industrial production figures will be out this week on Friday. Additionally, Fed Chair Jay Powell will be speaking at a conference hosted by the Dallas Federal Reserve on Thursday.

In Europe, the UK GDP and labor market figures are released on Tuesday, Germany's ZEW survey is out on Tuesday, and the European Central Bank's minutes from its October meeting are out on Thursday. On Friday, the ECB releases the Autumn Economic GDP Forecast.

In Asia, China releases its October industrial production and retail sales figures on Friday, while Japan releases flash Q3 GDP estimates.

Below is what else we are closely watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, November 10, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Primer Grito de Independencia Day in Panama, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit 2024 begins in Lima, Peru and runs through November 16.

· Mauritius holds parliamentary elections.

· Today is Cambodia Independence Day, celebrating when in 1945 Cambodian King Norodom Sihanouk proclaimed the country an independent kingdom.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Vehicle Sales (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Remembrance Day, marking the anniversary of the end of World War I in 1918.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, November 11, 2024

Global

· The United Nations COP9 Summit begins in Baku, Azerbaijan. More than 197 countries will participate, and it runs through November 24.

· The International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Grossi is expected to travel to Iran to discuss the status of Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Veterans Day, a U.S. federal holiday. Most banks as well as the bond market is closed. The equity markets are open.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (September)/ Nominal Budget Balance (September)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (October)/ Industrial Production (September)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (September)

· El Salvador Inflation Rate (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan’s Diet will select a new Prime Minister in an extraordinary session of the parliament.

· Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang will meet with Singapore’s Deputy Prime Minister Gam Kim Yong and co-chair the 20th Joint Council for Bilateral Cooperation.

· The IMF begins its mission to Pakistan to consider possible aid.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions/ Current Account (September)/ Bank Lending (October)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (October)

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (October)/ Car Sales (October)

· New Zealand Business Inflation Expectations Q4

· Malaysia Construction Output Q3

· Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

· Kazakhstan PPI (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Armistice Day in the UK and most of Europe, marking the end of World War I.

· The Paris Peace Forum begins and runs through November 12.

· The Berliner Forum on Foreign Affairs begins in Berlin, Germany. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha will speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives the keynote speech at the Malta Financial Services Authority’s (MFSA) Annual Banking Supervision Conference in St. Julian’s, Malta.

· Ireland Construction PMI (October)

· Romania Balance of Trade (September)

· Turkey Industrial Production (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Participation Rate (September)/ Auto Sales (October)

· Slovakia Construction Output (September)

· Slovenia Industrial Production (September)

· Russia Balance of Trade (September)

· Hungary Budget Balance (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The Arab-Islamic Summit begins in Riyad., Saudi Arabia. The primary discussion will focus on the situation in Gaza.

· Syria peace talks sponsored by Russia, Turkey, and Iran will take place in Kazakhstan.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Jordan Inflation Rate (October)

· Israel M1 Money Supply (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt Inflation Rate (October)/ Core Inflation Rate (October)

Tuesday, November 12, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Israeli President Isaac Herzog will meet with President Biden at the White House to discuss the situation in Gaza and Lebanon.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on payments systems at the Clearing House Annual Conference, New York, New York.

· Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in the Yahoo Finance Invest 2024"New Challenges, New Opportunities" conference.

· Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on "Fintech, AI and the Changing Financial Landscape" before the Carnegie Mellon University Lecture Series.

· Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ Retail Sales (September)/ Business Confidence (November)

· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (October)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (November)/ NY Fed Treasury Purchases 1 to 2.5 yrs./ Consumer Inflation Expectations (October)/ Loan Officer Survey

· Canada Building Permits (September)

· Colombia Consumer Confidence (October)

· Paraguay Balance of Trade (October)

· Argentina Inflation Rate (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The 15th Annual China Airshow begins in Zhuhai and runs through Sunday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (October)

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (November)/ NAB Business Confidence (October)

· Indonesia Retail Sales (September)

· Japan Machine Tool Orders (October)

· India Industrial Production (September)/ Inflation Rate (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· European Parliament holds confirmation hearings for 6 executive vice presidents-designate, including Italy's Raffaele Fitto, Spain's Teresa Ribera, France's Stephane Sejourne and Finland's Henna Virkkunen, as well as Estonia's Kaja Kallas.

· NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will travel to Paris to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone chairs a high-level policy panel entitled "Financial sanctions and their implications for the international monetary system" at Global Research Forum on International Macroeconomics and Finance 2024 organized by the ECB, the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Netherlands Inflation Rate Final (October)

· Germany Inflation Rate Final (October)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (November)/ ZEW Current Conditions (November)/ Current Account (September)

· Romania Inflation Rate (October)

· Turkey Current Account (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

· Great Britain Unemployment Rate (September)/ Employment Change (September)/ Claimant Count Change (October)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (October)

· Hungary Inflation Rate (October)

· Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (November)/ ECB Cipollone Speech

· Serbia Inflation Rate (October)

· Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Africa Tech Festival 2024 will take place in Cape Town through November 14.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Unemployment Rate Q3/ Unemployed Persons Q3/ Manufacturing Production (September)

Wednesday, November 13, 2024

Global

· The G7 Ministerial Meeting on Tourism begins in Florence, Italy.

· The UN Security Council will hold a vote on renewing Yemen sanctions.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Senate Republicans will meet to vote on who will be the chamber’s next majority leaders. Senate Democrats will hold their leadership vote in December.

· Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives will meet to vote on their leadership for 2025-2026. House Democrats will meet in on November 19 to choose their leaders.

Economic Reports/Events –

· St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem to speak on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Economic Club of Memphis.

· Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid to give luncheon keynote before hybrid “Energy and the Economy: Meeting Rising Energy Demand" Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas and Kansas City.

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (November/08) / MBA Purchase Index (November/08) / Inflation Rate (October)/ CPI (October)/ Redbook (November/09) / Total Household Debt Q3/ Monthly Budget Statement (October)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (November/08)

· Peru Balance of Trade (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Export Prices (October)/ Import Prices (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

· New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (September)

· Japan PPI (October)

· Australia Wage Price Index Q3

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment AUG

· Kazakhstan Unemployment Rate Q3

· India M3 Money Supply (November/01)

· China New Yuan Loans (October)/ M2 Money Supply (October)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (October)/ Total Social Financing (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with French Prime Minister Michel Barnier in Brussels.

· The Rebuild Ukraine conference will be held in Warsaw through Thursday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· France Unemployment Rate Q3

· Romania Industrial Production (September)/ Current Account (September)

· Hungary Industrial Production Final (September)

· Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting

· Belarus Inflation Rate (October)

· Poland Balance of Trade (September)/ Current Account (September)

· Russia GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Inflation Rate (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Import/ Export/ Balance of Trade (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The breakaway region of Somaliland will hold a presidential election.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mozambique Inflation Rate (October)

Thursday, November 14, 2024

Global

· The International Energy Agency Monthly Market Report is released.

· The G20 Social Summit begins in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and runs through November 16.

· The IMF’s 25th Annual Jacques Polak Research Conference begins in Washington, D.C., and runs through November 15.

· The UN Security Council votes on the renewal of the UN mission in Abiye, a disputed region between Sudan and South Sudan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Biden begins a six-day state visit to Peru and Brazil and also attends the APEC Summit being hosted by Peru this year. Chinese President Xi will also attend the summit. Additionally, Biden will visit the Amazon rainforest to stress the importance of dealing with climate change.

· The CPAC Conference begins in Mar-a-Lago, Florida. Argentine President Javier Milei is expected to attend also meet with President-elect Trump.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell gives a speech at the Dallas Federal Reserve’s Global Perspectives Conference.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech on central bank independence and the economic outlook at the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA) and the Latin American Chapter of the Econometric Society 2024 Meeting, Departamento de Montevideo, Uruguay.

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to give keynote before the “Intermediating Impact: Making Missing Markets" event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

· Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (September)

· USA PPI (October) / Initial Jobless Claims (November/09)/ EIA Natural Gas & Crude Oil Stocks Change (November/08)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (November/13/ Fed Balance Sheet (November/13)

· Colombia Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

· Paraguay Consumer Confidence (October)

· Mexico Interest Rate Decision

· Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

· Ecuador Balance of Trade (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Sri Lanka holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Food Inflation (October)

· Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock takes part in a panel debate about the state of the economy at the ASIC Annual Forum in Sidney.

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (November)/ Full Time & Part Time Employment Chg (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)/ Participation Rate (October)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (November/09)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (November/09)

· India Passenger Vehicles Sales (October)/ WPI Food Index (October)

· China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks alongside UK chancellor Rachel Reeves at the annual financial and professional services dinner at the City of London’s Mansion House.

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives remarks at the Choiseul Sovereignty Awards 2024 ceremony in Paris, France.

· Bank of England Member of the Policy Committee Catherine Mann will give a speech entitled “Revitalizing the Global Economy” at the Society of Professional Economists Annual Conference in London.

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks at the 31 Encuentro del Sector Financiero organized by ABC and Deloitte in Madrid, Spain.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates on a policy panel entitled "Reassessing Policy Tools for Current and Future Challenges" at 25th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference "Rethinking the Policy Toolkit in a Turbulent Global Economy" in Washington, D.C.,

· Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (October)

· Romania GDP Growth Rate Prel Q3

· Hungary Construction Output (September)

· Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Prel Q3

· Spain Inflation Rate Final (October)

· Euro Area ECB Guindos Speech/ Employment Change Prel Q3/ GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est Q3/ Industrial Production (September)/ ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

· Netherlands GDP Growth Rate Flash Q3/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Household Consumption (September)

· Poland GDP Growth Rate Prel Q3

· Slovenia GDP Growth Rate Q3

· France IEA Oil Market Report

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/08)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (October)

· Oman M2 Money Supply (September)/ Total Credit (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Gold Production (September)/ Mining Production (September)

· Angola Wholesale Prices (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)

Friday, November 15, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Canada Manufacturing Sales Final (September)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (September)/ Senior Loan Officer Survey

· USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (November)/ Export Prices (October)/ Import Prices (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Capacity Utilization (October)/ Manufacturing Production (October)/ Business Inventories (September)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (September)/ NOPA Crush Report/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (November/15)

· Colombia ISE Economic Activity (September)

· Peru Unemployment Rate (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the APEC Summit in Peru.

· Nikkei and the U.S.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) host the 21st CSIS/Nikkei Symposium in Tokyo under the title of "Shaping the Future: New Leadership in Japan, U.S. and Next Indo-Pacific Order." The Mount Fuji Dialogue, a gathering that unites influential government officials and businesspeople from the U.S. and Japan, is scheduled to start on Saturday in Tokyo.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (October)/

· Japan GDP Growth Annualized Prel Q3/ GDP Price Index Prel Q3/ GDP Private Consumption Prel Q3/ Industrial Production Final (September)/ Capacity Utilization (September)/ Tertiary Industry Index (September)

· China House Price Index (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)/ NBS Press Conference

· Indonesia Property Price Index Q3/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

· Malaysia Current Account Q3/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q3

· Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Final Q3

· Kazakhstan GDP Growth Rate Q3/ GDP (October)

· India Bank Loan & Deposit Growth (November/01)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/08)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

· Philippines Cash Remittances (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Germany’s 2025 budget is presented to the Bundestag.

· The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council (Budget) meets in Brussels. Ministers will discuss the EU’s 2025 annual budget.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates on a panel discussion at the high-level European Supervisory Authorities’ conference entitled "Financial services and Gender – Data, trends and progress in the EU and beyond" organized by EBA, ESMA and EIOPA in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane moderates a policy panel at a seminar entitled “A Fragmenting Trading System: where we stand and implications for policy" as part of the G7 Finance Track events organized by Banca d'Italia in Rome, Italy.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates on a panel discussion on productivity at the CER Ditchley Park conference "A European path to higher economic growth" in Chipping Norton, UK.

· UK GDP Growth Rate Prel Q3/ GDP (September)/ Goods Trade Balance (September)/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Business Investment Prel Q3/ Construction Output (September)/ GDP (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ Manufacturing Production (September)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (October)/ Labour Productivity Final Q2

· Germany Wholesale Prices (October)

· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (October)

· France Inflation Rate Final (October)

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (October)

· Italy Inflation Rate Final (October)/ Balance of Trade (September)

· Poland Inflation Rate Final (October)

· Ireland Balance of Trade (September)

· Serbia Building Permits (September)/ Current Account (September)

· Belarus Industrial Production (October)

· Ukraine Balance of Trade (September)

· Turkey Budget Balance (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Inflation Rate (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Angola M3 Money Supply (October)

· Nigeria Food Inflation (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)

· Egypt Unemployment Rate Q3

Saturday, November 16, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Biden will attend the G20 Summit -which begins on Monday – and will meet with Brazilian President Lula in Rio de Janeiro.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in an on-stage conversation at Trilateral Commission meeting in Madrid, Spain.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a speech at the Chicago Booth Conference on the Global Economy and Financial Stability, in London.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Gabon holds a national referendum on a new constitution and could lead to the end of military rule.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, November 17, 2024

Global

· The G20 Leaders’ Summit takes place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China FDI (YTD) (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel GDP Growth Annualized 1st Est Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Senegal holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 11/10/24 Francis Kelly 11/10/24

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

The Elections Bring a Shock Wave to the Washington Regulatory Outlook, New Leaders on Key Congressional Committees, and Who Will President-Elect Trump Pick as His Regulators?

November 11 - 15, 2024

What a week it was. Everyone expected it to be a close presidential race, but it was not, as President-elect Trump ended up sweeping all seven of the swing states and winning 329 electoral votes. Republicans also saw a bigger pick-up of seats in the Senate and, as of this writing, appear on track to retain control of the House of Representatives by the slimmest of margins.

With these election results comes a vastly different scenario for financial regulation in 2025 – 2026. We expect all the major regulatory chiefs – SEC, CFTC, OCC, FDIC, etc. – to step down as President-elect Trump moves quickly to nominate and get the Republican-controlled Senate to confirm his nominees quickly. Gone will be much of the SEC’s efforts on climate-related regulation, and almost certainly, the Federal Reserve Board-led effort to implement Basel III rules will at least be put on ice if not outright disregarded.

The elections also bring significant change to three of the four major regulatory oversight committees. We will see a new chair of the Senate Banking Committee following the defeat of current chair, Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) – the new chair most likely Senator Tim Scott (R-SC). But we will also see arch-activist Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) move up to become the Ranking Democrat on the Banking Committee.

Also, in the Senate, we expect Senator John Boozman (R-AK) to become the new chair of the Senate Agriculture Committee and oversee the CFTC.

In the House of Representatives, there will be a new chair of the House Financial Services Committee—either Representative French Hill (R-AK) or Andy Barr (R-KY).

But the big question now is who President-elect Trump will pick as his new regulatory head? No one knows yet, but we expect Trump to move quickly to nominate his cabinet, subcabinet, and key regulatory heads. We will be offering special reports on those nominations as they are announced.

Meanwhile, below is a listing of all the other significant regulatory-related events this coming week. There is nothing major going on other than Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell speaking at the Dallas Fed on Thursday and SEC Chair Gensler gives two speeches. We predict that most of the regulatory agencies are assessing what – if anything – they can accomplish between now and the January 20 inauguration. Some may try to push through some last-minute regulatory priorities. Still, our guess is most of the agencies will stand down and prepare to hand over control to whomever the President-elect nominates as the respective new regulatory head.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· The Senate returns to work this week. Republican senators will choose a new Majority Leader as Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has announced his intention to step back from the role. Currently, the race is between Senator John Thune (R-SD) and John Cornyn (R-TX).

· Thursday, November 14, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Finance Committee holds a hearing on the Nominations of Deva A. Kyle to be director of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation and David Samuel Johnson to be inspector general for tax administration in the Treasury Department.

House of Representatives

· The House returns to work this week. House Republicans will vote on their leadership – and whether to keep current Speaker of the House Michael Johnson (R-LA) as many outstanding House elections are yet to be called and control of the House majority remains uncertain.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Tuesday, November 12, 10:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller

Gives a speech at The Clearing House Annual Conference, New York, New York

· Thursday, November 14, 7:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech at the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA) and the Latin American Chapter of the Econometric Society 2024 Meeting, Departamento de Montevideo, Uruguay.

· Thursday, November 14, 3:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives a speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· Wednesday, November 13, 10:30 a.m. – The Small Business Administration holds a virtual meeting of the SBA Investment Capital Advisory Committee to discuss institutional investment market trends, innovation, and policy impacting small businesses and their ability to access patient capital.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Tuesday, November 12, 8:00 a.m. – Yahoo holds its 2024 Finance Invest Conference, beginning at 8 a.m. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler delivers remarks on "Investing in Regulatory Frameworks."

· Wednesday, November 13 – 9:00 a.m. – The SEC holds its Small Business Capital Formation Advisory Committee meeting.

· Thursday, November 14 — The Practicing Law Institute (PLI) 56th Annual Institute on Securities Regulation will hold its conference in New York. SEC Chair Gary Gensler will give remarks.

· Thursday, November 14, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· Wednesday, November 13, 9:00 a.m. – The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation holds a meeting of the FDIC Advisory Committee on Economic Inclusion. The agenda includes Updates from committee members about key challenges facing their communities or organizations; Presentations and panel discussions on qualitative research regarding consumer perceptions of banks and non-bank financial services firms; FDIC's proposed rulemaking on recordkeeping for custodial deposit accounts with transactional features; and Review of results from the 2023 FDIC National Survey of the Unbanked and Underbanked Households

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· Tuesday, November 12, 2:00 p.m. – The FTC holds a conference on Identity Theft and College Students.

· Thursday & Friday November 14 & 15 – The FTC holds its 17th Annual Microeconomics Conference in Washington, D.C.

· Thursday, November 14, 11:00 a.m. – The FTC holds an Open Meeting.

Farm Credit Administration

· Thursday, November 14, 10:00 a.m. – The Farm Credit Administration holds a meeting for a report on access to capital in Indian country.

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Tuesday, November 12 – The Investment Company Institute holds its annual Closed-End Fund conference in New York.

· Tuesday – Friday, November 12-15 – The American Bankers Association hods its annual Agricultural Bankers Conference in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

Think Tanks and Other Events

Nothing of significance is scheduled at this time.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 11/8/24 Francis Kelly 11/8/24

The Global Week Ahead

The U.S. Elections Are Finally Here, Iran Prepares for Another Strike on Israel, South Korea Confers with EU Leaders over North Korean Troops in Ukraine, and Is the Fed Ready for More Rate Cuts?

November 3 - 10, 2024

It seems like it has taken forever, but the U.S. elections are finally here on Tuesday. It is rather extraordinary when you think of all that is being voted on: A new President, 435 members of the House of Representatives, 33 members of the U.S. Senate, 11 governors, ten state attorney generals, 86 state legislatures in 44 states, and 8 U.S. territories, 22 major city mayors, and countless state and local judges will be elected. And a myriad of state ballot measures covering everything from abortion to taxes to water rights to education reform.

We have spent endless hours analyzing potential market outcomes and implications these past few months. While we believe there is a slight chance the U.S. House of Representatives flips to Democratic control by a slim margin and the U.S. Senate flips to Republican control by a slim margin, we just cannot project two days out who will win the presidency. It all comes down to who will win Pennsylvania and every poll, every data point, every anecdotal story we have heard points to the tightest of margins between former President Trump and Vice President Harris.

The question we get asked most often is: What are we going to be looking at on election night? Our recommendation is to watch Florida first. Trump is almost certain to win the Sunshine State – but by how much? By what margin? If it is a large margin, it is a possible indicator that Trump is having a big night. It may be a good night for Harris if it is not a significant margin. We will also be watching North Carolina – does Trump win, or does Harris surprise with a win? Again, the Tar Heel State will be a good early indicator. Unfortunately, our prediction is Pennsylvania will be close, complicated, and slow to reveal the victor. And if the race is as close as it appears to be now in the Keystone State, markets had better brace for a couple of days of uncertainty.

While virtually the entire world will be glued to televisions and computer screens watching the returns' role in, there are several other major geopolitical events we are watching closely this week. First, despite early indications Iran was not going to strike back at Israel for Israel's recent retaliatory strike on Iran, it now appears sentiment among Iran's leaders has shifted considerably. Two senior Iranian military leaders in the last week have publicly promised to strike back at Israel is a serious and rising risk. The change in stance appears to come as a result of Iran coming to grips with just how damaging Israel's October 25th strike actually was: crippling Iranian air defenses and destroying or crippling major drone production facilities as well as sensitive rocket fuel mixing facilities.

Also this week, South Korean leaders will be meeting with European Union leaders to discuss the recent deployment of approximately 10,000 North Korean troops in Russia, moving to the frontlines to battle Ukrainian forces. We see this as a significant game-changer in the Ukraine War, and South Korea clearly does too. As the South Korean Foreign Minister said Friday, "all possible scenarios are under consideration" which means Seoul is likely to being sending weapons to Ukraine and possibly sending military advisors and observers to Ukraine. It could also prompt NATO to reverse the current stance of not allowing NATO weapons supplied to Ukrainian forces to be used against Russian troops inside Russia – something Russian President Vladimir Putin has said would cross "a red line."

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, the big events are all at the central banks. The Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee meets on Wednesday and Thursday. Markets have factored in a likely 25 basis point cut, but with last week's feeble jobs report, some wonder if the cut will be more.

The Bank of England, the Reserve Bank of Australia, Sweden's Riksbank, Norway's Norges Bank, and the Central Bank of Brazil will also meet this week to discuss interest rates.

Looking at economic data releases this week, in Europe, markets are watching Germany's trade balance, factory orders, and industrial production numbers. France also releases industrial production and trade numbers.

In Asia, the Chinese Standing Committee of the National People's Congress will meet, and markets are watching for any new stimulus measures to stabilize the economy. China will also release trade balance figures. Meanwhile, Japan releases wage figures while the Bank of Japan releases minutes from its September meeting.

And bringing back to the U.S., the ISM services report, productivity and unit labor costs, and the University of Michigan consumer survey are all out this week.

Below is what else we are closely watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, November 3, 2024

Global

· G7 Development Ministers meet in Pescara, Italy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Delegations from the Colombian government and ELN guerrillas meet for peace talks in Caracas, Venezuela.

· Today is Dominica Independence Day, celebrating when the country was granted independence from the UK.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Standing Committee National People's Congress will gather for meetings through November 8. They will consider draft laws and amendments to laws dealing with mineral resources, energy, anti-money laundering, and maritime issues. They are not expected to discuss the ongoing national economic challenges or how to deal with the debt crisis.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Moldova holds the second round of its presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Turkish-African Summit is held in Djibouti. Turkey has invested heavily across Africa in recent years, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan carrying out 50 visits to 31 countries during his two decades in power.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, November 4, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on Non-proliferation/Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

· The UAE hosts energy industry executives at the annual ADIPEC Conference. (Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition & Conference). This is the largest energy conference with more than 2,200 exhibiting companies and more than 17,000 participants expected to attend.

· The 7th OECD World Forum on Well-Being is held in Paris.

· Interpol convenes its 92nd General Assembly in Glasgow, Scotland through November 7.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Constitution Day in the Dominican Republic, a national holiday.

· Boeing workers vote on improved contract offer to end strike.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (October)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (September)

· Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (August)

· USA Factory Orders (September)/ Total Vehicle Sales (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Malaysia Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim visits Beijing for a four-day visit. This is his third trip to China since taking office two years ago.

· Indonesia and Russia will hold their first joint naval drills in Surabaya, on the northeastern coast of Java island, from Monday to Friday. Southeast Asia's largest economy has adopted a neutral foreign policy, avoiding taking sides over Russia's invasion of Ukraine, while also trying to sidestep the U.S.-China rivalry. But Indonesia's new President Prabowo Subianto is looking to boost ties with Russia, after meeting with Vladimir Putin in Moscow this summer.

· The 11th summit of the heads of state of the Organization of Turkic States begins in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (October)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (October)

· Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

· Sri Lanka Unemployment Rate Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Eurogroup meets in Brussels. Ministers will discuss the competitiveness of the European economy, with a view to agreeing and adopting a formal statement. Ministers will continue to follow up on the implementation of the statement of the Eurogroup in inclusive format on the future of capital markets union, in line with the high-level roadmap endorsed in May. They will also discuss how best to regularly take stock of the performance of European capital markets and monitor progress on EU and national measures.

· South Korean and EU officials are to hold their first strategic dialogue in Seoul to discuss Russia’s deployment of North Korean troops. The meeting may give an indication of whether South Korea will send military observers and possibly advisors to Ukraine and/or ramp up military aid to Ukraine.

· Chancellor Olaf Scholz meets NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, press conference follows in Berlin. Rutte will also meet with President Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Minister of Defence Boris Pistorius, Minister of Finance Christian Lindner, and other senior officials.

· Today is Russia’s Day of Unity, celebrating when in 1612 a popular uprising against Polish forces.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives a keynote speech at a high-level conference "10 years of SSM: Looking back and looking forward" organized by European Banking Institute in collaboration with Hessisches Ministerium für Wissenschaft und Kunst in Frankfurt, Germany. ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul will also participate on a panel entitled "Competitiveness of European Banks.”

· Romania PPI (September)

· Turkey Inflation Rate (October)/ PPI (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/25)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Prel (October)/ Auto Production & Sales (October)

· France Budget Balance (September)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October)/ New Car Registrations (October)

· Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (October)

· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

· Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October)

· Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October)

· Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October)/ New Car Registrations (October)

· Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October)

· Slovenia Balance of Trade (September)

· Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel M1 Money Supply (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Africa Energy Expo 2024 begins in Kigali, Rwanda.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt M2 Money Supply (September)

Tuesday, November 5, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· It is election day in the United States.

· The former U.S. Navy contractor, Leonard Glenn Francis – better known as “Fat Leonard” – will be sentenced following his 2023 extradition from Venezuela in a federal court in San Diego.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (October)

· Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (October)

· USA Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Redbook (November/02)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (October)/ ISM Services PMI (October)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (November/01)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (October)

· Uruguay Inflation Rate (October)

· Colombia PPI (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The annual China International Import Expo kicks off in host city Shanghai, attracting exporters from more than 70 countries. China aims to boost trade through the six-day expo as sluggish domestic demand weighs.

· Palau will hold a presidential election.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The Tokyo Stock Exchange extends its closing time by 30 minutes to 3:30 p.m., in a move to "further improve convenience for market users, international competitiveness, and resilience," it said. Trading will still start at 9:00 a.m.

· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)

· Australia Judo Bank Composite & Services PMI Final (October)/ RBA Interest Rate Decision/ RBA Press Conference

· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (October)

· Singapore S&P Global PMI (October)/ Retail Sales (September)

· Philippines Inflation Rate (October)

· China Caixin Composite & Services PMI (October)/ Standing Committee National People's Congress

· Indonesia GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Thailand Inflation Rate (October)

· Kazakhstan S&P Global Services PMI (October)

· Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

· New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (November/05)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council will meet in Brussels. Ministers will discuss The Council will seek a political agreement on a package of legislation on value added tax (VAT) in the digital age. The package consists of three proposals that set out to tackle VAT fraud, support businesses and promote digitalization. They will also take stock of the implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF).The Council is expected to adopt implementing decisions approving modified recovery and resilience plans, submitted by some member states.

· President Emmanuel Macron hosts Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev for a state visit.

· Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni hosts NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Rome.

· German. Chancellor Olaf Scholz hosts Somalia's President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, press conference follows.

· The French Parliament continues debates over the government's 2025 budget proposal.

· The Berlin Peace Dialogue 2024 begins in Berlin, Germany.

· Today is Guy Fawkes Day in the UK.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the keynote speech at the French Competition Authority’s 15th Anniversary Event in Paris, France.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a speech at the Michael Chae Seminar on Macroeconomic Policy at Harvard University’s Department of Economics in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

· Ireland AIB Services PMI (October)

· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (October)

· Hungary Balance of Trade Prel (September)

· France Industrial Production (September)

· Spain Unemployment Change (October)

· Great Britain New Car Sales (October)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (October)

· Serbia PPI (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Qatar holds a constitutional referendum including a proposal to change strengthening the role of the emir and abolishment of the elections to the Consultative Assembly with its members being appointed instead.

· The IMF will begin reviewing Egypt’s loan program.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (October)

· United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (October)

· Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (October)

· Qatar Financial Centre PMI (October)

· Jordan PPI (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt S&P Global PMI (October)

· Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (October)

· South Africa S&P Global PMI (October)

· Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (October)

· Ghana S&P Global PMI (October)

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

Wednesday, November 6, 2024

Global

· The inaugural ministerial meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s IAEA World Fusion Energy Group takes place in Rome.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mexico Auto Exports & Production (October)

· Canada Ivey PMI s.a (October)/ Bank of Canada Summary of Deliberations/Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers speaks at the Economic Club of Canada.

· Colombia Exports (September)

· USA EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (November/01)

· Brazil Balance of Trade (October)/ Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is the keynote speaker at the opening of the Manila Dialogue on the South China Sea. The forum focuses on issues surrounding the geopolitical flashpoint, with China and the Philippines locked in an increasingly tense row over the disputed waterway.

· The Singapore FinTech Festival begins. Industry leaders, investors and policy makers will gather in Singapore for one of the world's largest financial technology exhibitions. Organized annually by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, the three-day event will discuss and showcase the latest advancements in the sector including digital banking, artificial intelligence, blockchain technology and sustainable finance.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand RBNZ Financial Stability Report/ Unemployment Rate Q3/ Employment Change Q3/ Labour Costs Index Q3/ Participation Rate Q3

· Australia Ai Group Industry Index (October)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (October)/ RBA Chart Pack

· Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMI Final (October)

· Philippines Unemployment Rate (September)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Industrial Production (September)

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Tourist Arrivals (October)

· India HSBC Composite & Services PMI Final (October)

· Malaysia Interest Rate Decision

· Taiwan Inflation Rate (October)

· China Standing Committee National People's Congress

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with French Prime Minister Michel Barnier in Brussels.

· Facing low approval polls (14 percent), Germany’s Coalition Committee of the governmental parties meets in Berlin, discussing the future of the coalition – meaning, new parliamentary elections could be called.

· Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visits Kazakhstan for meetings.

· Russia’s Upper house of parliament votes to ratify Defence treaty with North Korea.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the welcoming address at the 10th anniversary of the Single Supervisory Mechanism in Frankfurt, Germany. ECB Board Member Claudia Buch will also speak.

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos speaks at a lunch and takes Q&A session at the Distinguished Speaker Seminar organized by European Economics and Financial Centre in London.

· Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (October)/ Summary of the Key Rate Discussion

· Germany Factory Orders (September)

· Hungary Industrial Production Prel (September)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (October)

· Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (October)

· France HCOB Composite & Services PMI (October)

· Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (October)/ PPI (September)

· Great Britain S&P Global Construction PMI (October)

· Ireland Unemployment Rate (October)

· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

· Poland Interest Rate Decision (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Tourist Arrivals (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Angolan President Joao Lourenco will meet French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris.

· South Africa will host the Critical Minerals Africa Summit in Cape Town through November 7.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, November 7, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The 9th Ministerial Conference on the Information Society in Latin America and the Caribbean Will Be Held in Santiago, Chile.

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee meets on the economy and interest rates. Fed Chair Jay Powell holds a press conference afterwards.

· Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

· Mexico Inflation Rate (October)

· Brazil Car Production (October)/ New Car Registrations (October)

· USA Initial Jobless Claims (November/02)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (October/26)/ Wholesale Inventories (September)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (November/01)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (November/06)/ Consumer Credit Change (September)/ Fed Balance Sheet (November/06)/ Used Car Prices (October)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (October)

· Argentina Industrial Production (September)

· Peru Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The 7th China International Import Expo begins in Shanghai. Chinese Premiere Li Qiang will give an opening speech. According to Chinese press reports, leaders from other countries, including Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, Uzbek Prime Minister Abdulla Aripov, Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico, Kazakh Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov, Mongolian Prime Minister L. Oyun-Erdene, and Serbian Prime Minister Miloš Vučević will attend the opening ceremony.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Current Account (September)

· Japan Average Cash Earnings (September)/ Overtime Pay (September)/ Foreign Bond Investment (November/02)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (November/02)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

· Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Building Permits Final (September)

· Philippines GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

· China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)/ Standing Committee National People's Congress

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

· Malaysia Retail Sales (September)

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (October)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks at Valdai Discussion Club meeting in Moscow. The title of his speech is reported to be “titled "Security for Each and Everyone. Together Into a New World."

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives opening remarks at the ECB Conference on Money Markets in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates on a panel entitled "Stepping up: a new era for international climate leadership" at Friends of Europe’s flagship Festival of politics and Ideas "Voices, choices and leadership: a tipping point for Europe?" in Brussels, Belgium.

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a speech at a conference entitled "Public Debt: Past Lessons, Future Challenges" organized by Bank of Greece in Athens, Greece.

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates on a panel discussion at DNB Banking Seminar (virtual).

· Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ HCOB Construction PMI (October)

· Romania Retail Sales (September)

· Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (October)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (October)/ BoE Interest Rate Decision/ BoE Monetary Policy Report/ BoE MPC Vote Cut/ BoE MPC Vote Hike/ BoE MPC Vote Unchanged/ MPC Meeting Minutes

· Hungary Retail Sales (September)

· France Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)/ Private Non-Farm Payrolls Q3/ HCOB Construction PMI (October)

· Slovakia Retail Sales (September)

· Italy HCOB Construction PMI (October)

· Spain Industrial Production (September)

· Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

· Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (October)/ Retail Sales (September)

· Greece Balance of Trade (September)

· Ireland Inflation Rate (October)

· Serbia Interest Rate Decision

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/01)/ Treasury Cash Balance (October)

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Business Confidence (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

Friday, November 8, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman speaks on banking issues at

the University of Mississippi School of Business Banking and Finance Symposium, Oxford, Mississippi.

· Chile Inflation Rate (October)

· Brazil Inflation Rate (October)

· Canada Unemployment Rate (October)/ Employment Change (October)/ Participation Rate (October)/ Average Hourly Wages (October)/ Full & Part Time Employment Change(October)

· Ecuador Inflation Rate (October)

· USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (November)/ Michigan Current Conditions Prel (November)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel (November)/ WASDE Report/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (November/08)

· Colombia Inflation Rate (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (November)/ Household Spending (September)/ Coincident Index Prel (September)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (September)

· New Zealand Business Inflation Expectations Q4

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (October)/ Motorbike Sales (October)/ Car Sales (October)

· Malaysia Industrial Production (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

· Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

· China Current Account Prel Q3

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/01)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU heads of state in Budapest, Hungary hosted by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Hungary is Chairing the European Council until the end of December.

· Greek Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis hosts Turkey's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan in Athens.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates on a panel discussion at 11th anniversary of McKinsey’s and Quantum Black’s flagship EMEA Data & AI Summit in Versailles, France.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone moderates a panel at a high-level event on Italy and the World Bank Group: "Partnering for Africa's prosperity" co-organized by the World Bank Group, Banca d'Italia, and the Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance in Rome, Italy.

· Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill will give a monetary policy report national agency briefing in London.

· Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (October)

· Netherlands Manufacturing Production (September)

· Turkey Inflation Report

· France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Current Account (September)

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (September)/ Industrial Production (September)

· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (October)

· Italy Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

· Greece Inflation Rate (October)

· Ireland Industrial Production (September)

· Romania Interest Rate Decision

· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)/ Vehicle Sales (October)

· Ukraine Inflation Rate (October)

· Hungary Budget Balance (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Foreign Ministers of the Russia-Africa partnership forum meet in Sochi, Russia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Tanzania Inflation Rate (October)

Saturday, November 9, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Inflation Rate (October)/ PPI (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the 35th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in a the closing event "Climate risks, adaptation and mitigation: what do central banks make of their economic effects?" at Green Swan Conference 2024 "Impact of climate change on the real economy: what does it mean for business and for monetary policy?" co-organized by Bank for International Settlements, Bank of Japan, Bank of Spain and Network for Greening the Financial System in Basel, Switzerland.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nigerian Foreign Minister Yusuf Tuggar will travel to Russia through November 10.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, November 10, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Primer Grito de Independencia Day in Panama, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit 2024 begins in Lima, Peru and runs through November 16.

· Mauritius holds parliamentary elections.

· Today is Cambodia Independence Day, celebrating when in 1945 Cambodian King Norodom Sihanouk proclaimed the country an independent kingdom.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Vehicle Sales (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Remembrance Day, marking the anniversary of the end of World War I in 1918.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 11/1/24 Francis Kelly 11/1/24

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

AT LAST, THE ELECTIONS ARE FINALLY HERE! And Not A Whole Lot Is Going On in the Regulatory World This Week…

November 3 - 8, 2024

The elections are finally here this week. Washington is bracing for what Tuesday brings, especially the regulatory world because change is coming to the regulatory agenda in 2025 and beyond.

The only major event this week is the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FMOC), meets Wednesday and Thursday to discuss the economy and interest rates. And on Friday, Fed Governor Michelle W. Bowman participates in a conversation on banking topics at the University of Mississippi School of Business Banking and Finance Symposium. The Securities Enforcement Forum is being held on Wednesday, bringing together current and former senior SEC officials – mostly enforcement staff – with white-collar attorneys, in-house counsels, and compliance executives. And that is about it for the regulatory calendar this coming week.

This past week saw a ramping up in the fight over the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s (FDIC) efforts to tighten its oversight of how giant asset managers invest in banks. House Republicans let it be known they are not happy with the FDIC’s effort, sending a letter to FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg objecting. The FDIC is requiring BlackRock and Vanguard to sign agreements this week meant to more aggressively monitor the asset managers’ promises to remain passive investors in banks in which they have big ownership stakes.

Also, this past week, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said at the American Bank Association’s annual meeting that Treasury believes fraud in the banking system is becoming a huge problem and that her department is now using artificial intelligence to detect and deal with the issue.

Also, anticipating the changes coming to Congress' composition and what they might mean for the regulatory world, Senator Tim Scott (R.-S.C.), the current ranking minority of the Senate Banking Committee, appears to have locked up enough support to become the next Chair of the Senate Banking Committee if control of the chamber flips.

Let’s see what happens on Tuesday. And don’t forget to vote! Below is a listing of all the other significant regulatory-related events this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· The Senate is in Pro Forma session and not returning to work until after the election. No work and no hearings are scheduled. They will return to work on November 12.

House of Representatives

· The House is out of session until after the November elections. No business or hearings are scheduled. They will return to work on November 12.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Wednesday & Thursday, November 6 & 7 – The Federal Reserve Board’s Federal Open Market Committee meets in Washington to consider interest rates.

· Friday, November 8, 11:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman participates in a conversation on banking topics at the University of Mississippi School of Business Banking and Finance Symposium, Oxford, Mississippi.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· Friday, November 8, 9:30 a.m. – The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis holds a virtual meeting of the Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee to discuss proposed improvements, extensions, and research related to BEA's economic accounts and include an update on recent statistical developments.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Wednesday, November 6 – Acting Director of Enforcement Sanjay Wadhwa and several other SEC enforcement officials will participate in Securities Enforcement Forum D.C. 2024.

· Thursday, November 7 – The SEC holds its Virtual National Compliance Outreach Seminar for Investment Companies and Investment Advisors. You can find the agenda HERE.

· Thursday, November 7, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Friday, November 8, 6:00 p.m. PT – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will receive the Daniel K. Inouye Trailblazer Award from the National Asian Pacific American Bar Association (NAPABA). The award is NAPABA’s lifetime achievement award and highest honor and recognizes the Trailblazer’s leadership, vision, courage, tenacity, and substantial contributions to the legal profession.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· Thursday, November 7, 9:00 a.m. – The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation holds a meeting of the Advisory Committee on Community Banking chaired by FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg to discuss issues that are of interest to community banks. You can find the agenda HERE.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Wednesday & Thursday, November 6 & 7 – SIFMA holds its annual Market Structure Conference in New York.

· Thursday, November 7, 10:00 a.m. – The Futures Industry Association holds a virtual conference entitled Commodities Enforcement Trends and Developments.

· Friday, November 8, 10:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance holds a Cyber Security Roundtable entitled “Resilience in the Face of Digital Fraud and Cyber Threats” in Brussels, Belgium.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 11/1/24 Francis Kelly 11/1/24

Puppies!

Our beautiful Quinn just had five beautiful puppies!

My wonderful wife brings a lot of joy into our house with her breeding business. Our wonderful, sweet Quinn just had five beautiful, healthy puppies - all pure-bred German Shepherds. If you are interested in buying one, reach out to Maura at Open Door Farm. In the meantime, I’m loving having these little ones squeaking away in our bathroom and growing so fast!

Francis Kelly 10/27/24 Francis Kelly 10/27/24

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Washington Regulators Get Very Quiet A Week Before the Elections and the Next FMOC Meetings; SEC Chair Gensler Heads to Vegas to Talk About the Global Money Ecosystem

October 28 - November 1, 2024

It will be a mostly quiet week in Washington’s regulatory world. Elections have that effect on Washington as members of Congress are all off either campaigning for re-election or campaigning for colleagues. Congressional staff are mostly working from home or on shortened schedules.

The biggest election from the financial regulatory perspective is Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown's (D-OH) tense reelection battle against Republican Bernie Moreno. The latest polls suggest the race is a statistical tie, as Moreno has gained significant ground on Brown in the last two weeks.

The regulatory agencies are, of course, at work but not much is scheduled publicly. Aside from a fireside chat SEC Chair Gary Gensler will participate in at the Money 20/20 Conference on tech, finance, and the global money ecosystem and a CFTC Open meeting, there is not much going on.

Perhaps the biggest event of the week will be the American Bankers Association’s (ABA) Annual Convention being held in New York. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is the keynote speaker, and she is expected to offer her thoughts on the state of the US economy and the current state of play of bank regulation.

Below is a listing of all the other significant regulatory-related events this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· The Senate is in Pro Forma session and not returning to work until after the election. No work and no hearings are scheduled. They will return to work on November 12.

House of Representatives

· The House is out of session until after the November elections. No business or hearings are scheduled. They will return to work on November 12.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· The Federal Reserve Board member have no public speaking events scheduled as they are in the “Quiet Period” in advance of the November 7 Federal Open Markets Committee Meeting.

U.S. Treasury Department

· Monday, October 28, 11:15 a.m. – Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen drops by a meeting of the U.S. China Financial Working Group and the Economic Working Group.

· Tuesday, October 29, 9:00 a.m. – The Treasury Department holds a meeting of the Debt Management Advisory Committee. The agenda includes: Discussion on the economy; Discussion on financial markets; Discussion on treasury financing; Discussion on debt management; and Written report of its recommendations.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Monday, October 28, 2:40 p.m. – SEC Chair Gary Gensler will participate in a fireside chat at the Money 20/20 Conference in Las Vegas, Nevada.

· Tuesday, October 29, 2:30 p.m. – SEC Chair Gary Gensler will participate in a fireside chat with Erica Williams, Chair of the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB), as part of the PCAOB’s International Institute on Audit Regulation. A livestream of the chat will be available.

· Thursday, October 31, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Tuesday, October 29, 10:00 am. – 4:30 p.m. – The CFTC will hold an Open Meeting. The Commission will consider: Final Rule – Operational Resilience Framework for Futures Commission Merchants, Swap Dealers, and Major Swap Participants, a Final Rule regarding Investment of Customer Funds by Futures Commission Merchants and Derivatives Clearing Organizations, a Final Rule on Derivatives Clearing Organizations Recovery and Orderly Wind-down Plans; Information for Resolution Planning, the Commission Fall 2024 Unified Agenda Submission, and the CFTC Executive and Supervisor Compensation Structures.

· Thursday, October 30, 9:20 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Summer K. Mersinger will deliver a keynote address at the ISDA Annual Legal Forum in New York.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· October 30 – 31 – FINRA hosts the Diversity Leadership Summit (virtually).

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Tuesday, October 28 - 29 – The American Bankers Association holds its 2024 Annual Convention. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will give a keynote speech.

· Tuesday & Wednesday, October 29 -30 – SIFMA holds its National Conference on the Securities Industry in New York.

· Wednesday, October 30 – ISDA holds its Annual Legal Forum in New York.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Friday, October 31, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a virtual discussion on "Basel III implementation status and prospects," referring to a framework that sets international standards for bank capital adequacy, stress testing and liquidity requirements.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 10/27/24 Francis Kelly 10/27/24

The Global Week Ahead

Entering the Final Week of the U.S. Election Campaign Season, Gaza Peace Negotiators Try Again to Broker a Cease-Fire, And A Big US Economic Data Week

October 27 - November 3, 2024

The U.S. is going into the final week of campaigning in what is proving to be one of the tensest presidential elections in recent memory and too close to predict at this point. Polling has proven to be extremely tight and, more often than not, confusing to most observers. But it seems it all comes down to whoever wins Pennsylvania wins the presidency. Control of the U.S. House of Representatives is also proving to be close but seems to lean toward Democrats winning control, while control of the Senate looks likely to flip to Republicans. But one thing is clear: Everyone we have spoken to cannot wait until November 5th to get the voting behind us.

Looking globally, the coming week is relatively quiet following a busy week of the IMF/World Bank meetings and BRICS Summit (which seems to have been something of a bust for host Russian President Vladimir Putin with little achieved). Markets are somewhat relieved Israel's much anticipated retaliatory attack on Iran Saturday appears to have been limited and likely not to lead to further direct Iranian strikes or significant expansion of fighting in the region. But Israeli action against Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon continues and is not expected to end anytime soon. Meanwhile, Israeli, U.S., and Qatari negotiators are gathering in Doha this week in another effort to broker a cease-fire in Gaza.

Looking at the global economic radar screen, it will be a busy week in the U.S. as the Conference Board's consumer confidence report is on Tuesday, the Q3 GDP numbers are out on Wednesday, PCE data is on Thursday, and the jobs report is released Friday.

In Asia, it is also going to be a busy week in Japan. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) meets on Thursday to decide interest rates. We will also see the BoJ release its Outlook Report on Thursday. This comes after the labor market indicator print is released on Monday, and the Industrial Production and Consumer Confidence reports are released on Wednesday.

China releases its PMIs on Thursday and the Caixin Manufacturing PMI on Friday. But markets will particularly examine this week's earnings from large Chinese banks to gauge loan losses, giving a better insight into the country's ongoing economic challenges.

Turning to Europe, Germany, France, and the Eurozone will release Q3 GDP figures. Germany will also release inflation figures on Wednesday, with France and Italy releasing their inflation figures on Thursday. In the U.K., the much-anticipated first budget of the recently elected Labour Government will be presented on Wednesday.

There are very few major central bank speeches scheduled this week following a busy week in Washington last week at the IMF/World Bank meetings. The U.S. Federal Reserve Board is in its "black-out period" in advance of the FMOC meeting on November 6 and 7. Among G7 central banks, the most notable event is Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem's testimony before the Canadian parliament this week.

Below is what else we are closely watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, October 27, 2024

Global

· European and British Summer Time end. Clocks go back one hour.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Uruguay holds presidential and parliamentary elections. However, the elections are being marred by a controversial $23 billion proposal to overhaul the social security system. If approved, the measure would increase minimum payouts, lower the retirement age and transfer privately managed savings to a government-run trust in what advocates see as a way to share the nation’s resources more equally.

· Brazil holds its second round of municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan holds snap elections for its the House of Representatives. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is at risk of losing its majority in the lower house, which would mean the LDP would have to rely on a coalition partnership with the Komeito Party– which is currently does to hold power in the upper house. The LDP needs to win 233 seats for an outright majority.

· Uzbekistan holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Industrial Profits (YTD) (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Lithuania holds the second round of parliamentary elections.

· Bulgaria will hold snap parliamentary elections. This is the third attempt to form a government since June and the sixth snap elections held in the country since 2021.

· Liechtenstein holds a vote on a referendum on the privatization of Radio Lichtenstein.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Israeli, Qatari, and US negotiators will meet in Doha seeking a cease-fire in Gaza.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 28, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on Sudan. Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to deliver remarks. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on 2713 Committee (dealing with Somalia as well as a Troop Contributing Countries (TCC) meeting.

· The OECD releases Guidelines on Corporate Governance of State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs).

· The OECD holds its Sustainable Agricultural Productivity Conference in Paris.

· The UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) experts will present the organization's annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin.

· The UN’s International Conference on Women, Peace and Security will be held through October 31 in Manila, Philippines.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Canadian province of Saskatchewan holds legislative elections.

· The 2024 Microelectronics Commons Annual Meeting and National Semiconductor Technology Center Symposium begins in Washington.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Canada Wholesale Sales (September)/ CFIB Business Barometer (October)

· Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem will participate in a fireside chat at the Logic Summit in Ontario.

· Mexico Balance of Trade (September)

· USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (October)/ Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates

· Colombia Business Confidence (September)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Philippine Senate will begin an investigation into former President Rodrigo Duterte's controversial war on drugs. The policy began when he was elected in 2016 and by some estimates led to the killing of as many as 30,000 Filipinos. As Nikkei recently reported, an investigation by congressional lawmakers has recently confirmed a bounty system for police that directly linked Duterte's allies, including two sitting senators, to the violent campaign.

· The Asian Development Bank will elect a new president. Only one candidate is running – Japan’s former currency czar Masato Kana.

· ASEAN Labor Ministers meet in Singapore.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Taiwan Consumer Confidence (October)

· Malaysia PPI (September)

· Singapore Import & Export Prices (September)/ PPI (September)

· Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (October)

· Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Finnish President Alexander Stubb begins a state visit to China. Stubb is expected to discuss the war in Ukraine and China’s role in supporting Russian forces. They are also going to talk about the ongoing trade disputes with the EU and bilateral trade issues.

· The EU-Western Balkans Ministerial Forum begins in Montenegro.

· French President Emmanuel Macron begins a three-day state visit to the former colony, marking a step towards easing three years of strained relations between the two countries.

· The 2024 Session of the Nordic Council begins in Reykjavik, Iceland and runs through October 31. The theme of the meeting is “Peace and Security in the Arctic.” There are 87 elected members of te Council from Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, The Faroe Islands, Norway, Greenland, and Åland Islands. Belarus opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya will address the group in a bid to encourage continued opposition to the Belarus dictatorship.

· The environmental group, Extinction Rebellion, is expected to hold large protest targeting London-based issuers.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos gives a speech and participates in a Q&A at Foro Reflexión organized by Grupo Hotusa in Madrid, Spain

· Spain Retail Sales (September)

· Slovenia Retail Sales (September)

· Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Saudi Arabia hosts the Future Investment Initiative (FII) through October 31. The event is a showcase explaining the kingdom’s vision for transforming the country into a financial hub as well as the country’s advancements in technology, minerals, and mining.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel M1 Money Supply (September)

· Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (September)/ Private Bank Lending (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The 10th session of the UN Global Geospatial Information Management for Africa will be held in Addis Ababa.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Angola Wholesale Prices (September)

Tuesday, October 29, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Middle East.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil Current Account (September)/ Foreign Direct Investment (September)

· Canada BoC Macklem Speech

· Chile Unemployment Rate (September)

· USA Goods Trade Balance Adv (September)/ Redbook (October/26)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (August)/ House Price Index (August)/ JOLTs Job Openings & Quits (September)/ CB Consumer Confidence (October)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (October)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/25)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The International Mining and Resources Conference will be held in Sydney, Australia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Unemployment Rate (September)/ Jobs/applications ratio (September)

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Tourist Arrivals (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (November)

· Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (September)/ Mortgage Approvals & Lending (September)/ M4 Money Supply (September)/ Net Lending to Individuals (September)

· Ireland GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Retail Sales (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Inflation Expectations (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Africa HealthTech Summit begins in Kigali, Rwanda.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa M3 Money Supply (September)/ Private Sector Credit (September)

Wednesday, October 30, 2024

Global

· A Joint meeting of G20 Finance Ministers and Health Ministers will take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Later, the G20 Health Ministers Conference will meet.

· G20 Education Ministers will meet in Fortaleza, Brazil.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold votes linked to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) and the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL). Also in the morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold votes related to the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) and Colombia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Canada will host the Ministerial Conference on Human Dimension of Ukraine’s Peace Formula in Montreal. he Ministerial Conference will bring together Foreign Affairs Ministers to advance the common vision articulated by the Joint Communiqué on a Peace Framework developed at the Summit on Peace in Ukraine at Bürgenstock, Switzerland, in June 2024. During the conference, Ministers will exchange views with the aim of developing a concrete plan, guided by the principles of international human rights and humanitarian law, for the return of prisoners of war as well as deported civilians and children back to Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil IGP-M Inflation (October)/ Bank Lending (September)/ PPI (September)/ Net Payrolls (September)

· USA MBA Purchase Index (October/25)/ ADP Employment Change (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ GDP Price Index Q3/ GDP Sales Q3/ PCE Prices Q3/ Real Consumer Spending Q3/ Treasury Refunding Announcement/ Pending Home Sales (September)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/25)

· Chile Copper/ Industrial/ Manufacturing Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

· Mexico GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Fiscal Balance (September)

· Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers will testfy before the Canadian Parliament.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun will meet with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in Washington for the 56th Bilateral Security Consultative Meetings.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia CPI Q3/ Monthly CPI Indicator (September)/ Inflation Rate Q3/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q3/ RBA Weighted Median CPI Q3

· Philippines PPI (September)

· Singapore Bank Lending (September)

· Japan Consumer Confidence (October)

· Singapore Business Confidence Q3

· Malaysia M3 Money Supply (September)

· Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (October)/ Balance of Trade (September)

· India Infrastructure Output (September)/ M3 Money Supply (October/18)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Commission is expected to publish the final disclosure for planned import duties on Chinese made electric vehicles (EV). Once implemented, the duties will be in place for five years.

· The UK Autumn Budget will be presented to Parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives the keynote speech at the SAFE-CEPR conference on Euro@25 organized by Leibniz Institute SAFE in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Netherlands Business Confidence (October)

· France GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Household Consumption (September)

· Turkey Economic Confidence Index (October)

· Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Slovakia Business & Consumer Confidence (October)

· Spain GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Business Confidence (October)

· Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (October)/ Economic Sentiment Index (October)/ SNB Press Conference

· Germany Unemployment Rate (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (October)/ Bavaria CPI (October)/ Brandenburg CPI (October)/ Hesse CPI (October)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (October)/ Saxony CPI (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)

· Italy GDP Growth Rate Q3/ PPI (September)

· Slovenia Inflation Rate (October)

· Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Economic Sentiment (October)/ Consumer Confidence Final (October)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (October)/ Industrial Sentiment (October)/ Selling Price Expectations (October)/ Services Sentiment (October)/ ECB Schnabel Speech

· Greece PPI (September)

· Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate (October)

· Russia Unemployment Rate (September)/ Business Confidence (October)/ Corporate Profits (August)/ Real Wage Growth (August)/ Retail Sales (September)/ GDP (September)

· Great Britain Autumn Budget 2024

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (August)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Qatar Balance of Trade (September)

· Kuwait M2 Money Supply (September)/ Private Bank Lending (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Botswana holds general elections. President Mokgweetsi Masisi is expected to win a second five-year term.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Budget Balance (September)/ Medium-term budget statement

Thursday, October 31, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Threats to international peace and security.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (September)/ Nominal Budget Balance (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

· USA Challenger Job Cuts (October)/ Personal Income & Spending (September)/ Employment Cost Index Q3/ Initial Jobless Claims (October/26)/ PCE Price Index (September)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (October/26)/ Chicago PMI (October)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/25)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/30)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/30)

· Canada GDP (August)/ Average Weekly Earnings (August)

· Colombia Unemployment Rate (September)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (September)

· Uruguay Balance of Trade (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· India celebrates Diwali, the festival of lights.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

· Japan Industrial Production (September) / Retail Sales (September)/ Foreign Bond Investment (October/26)

· New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (October)

· Australia Housing Credit (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Export Prices Q3/ Import Prices Q3/ Private Sector Credit (September)/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (October)

· China NBS Manufacturing & Non- Manufacturing PMI (October)/ NBS General PMI (October)

· Japan Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision/ BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report/ Housing Starts (September)/ Construction Orders (September)

· Thailand Industrial Production (September)/ Current Account (September)/ Private Consumption & Investment (September)

· Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q3

· India Government Budget Value (September)

· Pakistan Consumer Confidence (October)

· Sri Lanka PPI (September)/ Unemployment Rate Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Russia hosts the World Congress of Compatriots Living Abroad. The meeting brings together approximately 400 leaders and activists from Russian communities from 103 countries. The agenda includes “…the preservation of traditional and family values, the safeguarding of cultural and historical heritage, protection of the rights and legitimate interests of compatriots, promotion of the Russian language and education, engagement of youth in diaspora activities, development of Russian-language media, and matters concerning relocation to the Russian Federation.”

· The 2nd International Eurasian Security Conference will be held in Minsk, Belarus through November 1. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will chair the conference.

· The UK Conservative Party elections will end. The new Party leader will be announced on Saturday, November 2.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden will give a speech in Hong Kong entitled “Engaging with the machine: AI and Financial Stability.”

· Netherlands Inflation Rate (October)

· Germany Retail Sales (September)/ Import Prices (September)

· Romania Unemployment Rate (September)

· Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (September)/ Tourism Revenues Q3/ Retail Sales (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/25)

· Hungary Balance of Trade Final (August)/ PPI (September)

· Switzerland Retail Sales (September)

· France Inflation Rate (October)/ PPI (September)

· Spain Tourist Arrivals (September)/ Current Account (August)

· Euro Area ECB Bulletin/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ CPI Flash (October)

· Italy Unemployment Rate (September)/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Industrial Sales (August)

· Poland Inflation Rate (October)

· Greece Retail Sales (August)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

· Great Britain BoE Breeden Speech

· Ireland Wholesale Prices (September)

· Serbia Balance of Trade (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

· Ukraine Interest Rate Decision/ Current Account (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Israel Composite Economic Index (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

· South Africa PPI (September)/ Balance of Trade (September)

· Kenya Inflation Rate (October)

· Egypt M2 Money Supply (September)

Friday, November 1, 2024

Global

· The United Kingdom takes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of November.

· The G20 Disaster Risk Reduction Ministerial meeting takes place in Belem, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the Day of the Dead in Mexico.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ Business Confidence (October)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (October)

· Brazil Industrial Production (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (October)

· USA Unemployment Rate (October)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate/ Participation Rate (October)/ Government Payrolls (October)/ Manufacturing & Nonfarm Payrolls (October)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (October)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Construction Spending (September)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (November/01)

· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (October)

· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (October)

· Paraguay Inflation Rate (October)

· Peru Inflation Rate (October)

· Argentina Tax Revenue (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Building Permits (September)

· Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (October)/ Building Permits (September)/ Home Loans (September)/ Investment Lending for Homes (September)/ PPI Q3/ Commodity Prices (October)

· South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Tourist Arrivals (September)

· Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (October)

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Business Confidence (October)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

· China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (October)

· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (October)/ Bank Loan Growth (October/18)/ Deposit Growth (October/18)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/25)

· Kazakhstan Current Account Q3/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)

· Hong Kong Retail Sales (September)

· Pakistan Inflation Rate (October)/ Wholesale Prices (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· North Korean troops are expected to begin deploying against Ukrainian Forces in Kursk.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Most financial markets are closed as is the European Central Bank for All Saints’ Day, a public holiday.

· Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (October)

· Netherlands Retail Sales (September)/ NEVI Manufacturing PMI (October)

· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ M2 Money Supply (September)

· Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (October)

· Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (October)

· Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (October)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (October)

· Switzerland Inflation Rate (October)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (October)

· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

· Spain New Car Sales (October)

· Italy New Car Registrations (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (October)

· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (October)

Saturday, November 2, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· One of our favorite days of the year! The end of Daylight Savings as clocks are set back one hour and we get an extra hour of sleep.

Fulcrum Perspectives

The Global Week Ahead

November 13 - 17, 2024

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

The Elections Bring a Shock Wave to the Washington Regulatory Outlook, New Leaders on Key Congressional Committees, and Who Will President-Elect Trump Pick as His Regulators?

November 11 - 15, 2024

Recommended Weekend Reads

The 2nd Trump Presidency, Ukraine: What Happens Now?, And China’s Axis of Losers

November 8 - 10, 2024

The Global Week Ahead

The U.S. Elections Are Finally Here, Iran Prepares for Another Strike on Israel, South Korea Confers with EU Leaders over North Korean Troops in Ukraine, and Is the Fed Ready for More Rate Cuts?

November 3 - 10, 2024

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

AT LAST, THE ELECTIONS ARE FINALLY HERE! And Not A Whole Lot Is Going On in the Regulatory World This Week…

November 3 - 8, 2024

Recommended Weekend Reads

Entering the Age of Global Depopulation, The Surprising Resilience of Globalization, and How Brazil Could Become the Global Engine for Global Clean Energy Revolution

November 1 - 3, 2024

Puppies!

Our beautiful Quinn just had five beautiful puppies!

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Washington Regulators Get Very Quiet A Week Before the Elections and the Next FMOC Meetings; SEC Chair Gensler Heads to Vegas to Talk About the Global Money Ecosystem

October 28 - November 1, 2024

The Global Week Ahead

Entering the Final Week of the U.S. Election Campaign Season, Gaza Peace Negotiators Try Again to Broker a Cease-Fire, And A Big US Economic Data Week

October 27 - November 3, 2024

Recommended Weekend Reads

Our U.S. Election Special: Election Integrity, Who Your Neighbors Gave To, and How Economic Indicators Impact Votes. Plus, Why Europe is Unprepared to Defend Itself, and Mexico’s Economic Challenges

October 25 - 27, 2024

U.S. 2024 Elections

Africa

Europe

Mexico

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