Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis, as well as book recommendations, travel observations, and cultural experiences - all of which we hope will be of interest to you.

Francis Kelly 10/20/24 Francis Kelly 10/20/24

The U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

It’s World Bank/IMF Week in Washington, There Are Not One But Two Big Fintech Conferences This Week, And Pressure on FDIC Chair Gruenberg To Explain Himself Grows

October 21 - 25, 2024

Washington will be a very busy place this week as finance ministers and central bank chiefs from around the world converge for the annual World Bank/IMF meetings. While burgeoning global debt will be a major focus of the meetings, issues surrounding the stability of the financial markets will be a central theme (We would note it will also be a significant theme of the BRICS Leaders’ Summit in Russia this week, as Russian President Vladimir Putin and other BRICS leaders seek to build an alternative financial system).

Also, this week, not one but two big Fintech Conferences will be held, one in Washington and one in Philadelphia. The one in Washington – the Georgetown University Law Center's Institute of International Economic Law holds its eighth annual Fintech Week Conference – will see speeches by a number of regulators, including Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu, CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam, and CFPB Director Rohit Chopra.

Also this week, Bloomberg is holding its Global Regulatory Forum in New York, where SEC Chair Gary Gensler will speak. He will also speak at SIFMA’s Annual Meeting in New York.

Quickly looking at what happened last week, we would note that while Congress remains out of session until after the November elections, there still was some notable action. House Financial Services Chair Patrick McHenry on Wednesday slammed FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg for “continued obstruction” of the panel’s investigation into the agency's workplace culture, calling on the bank regulator to schedule a transcribed interview by the end of the day. Gruenberg continues to refuse to cooperate or explain himself.

McHenry – who is retiring from Congress at the end of this session – also sent a letter to the General Accountability Office (GAO) asking for an investigation into the Treasury Department's management of small business ownership data, which it collects under a law intended to fight money laundering.

Also of note, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she believes a bipartisan stablecoin bill currently being negotiated in the House “comes close” to the administration’s goals for regulating digital assets. While we believe there is virtually no chance of the bill being passed by the end of this year, we believe it will be revived early in the new Congress next year.

Below is a listing of all the other significant regulatory-related events this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· The Senate is in a Pro Forma session and not returning to work until after the election. No work and no hearings are scheduled. They will return to work on November 12.

House of Representatives

· The House is out of session until after the November elections. No business or hearings are scheduled. They will return to work on November 12.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Tuesday & Wednesday, October 22 – 23 – The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia will hold its 8th Annual Fintech Conference in Philadelphia. Among the speakers will be Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker, and a large number of industry leaders.

· Wednesday, October 23, 9:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives opening remarks at the Eighth Annual Fintech Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Monday, October 21, 10:25 a.m. – SEC Chair Gary Gensler will deliver remarks and participate in a one-on-one conversation with SIFMA President and CEO Kenneth Bentsen at the SIFMA Annual Meeting in New York.

· Tuesday, October 22, 11:00 a.m. – SEC Chair Gary Gensler will speak at the Bloomberg Global Regulatory Forum in New York. A livestream of his remarks will be available. See the conference agenda here.

· Thursday, October 24, 1:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Monday, October 21, 2:00 p.m. – CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam will participate in a fireside chat at SIFMA’s Annual Meeting in New York.

· Tuesday, October 22, 2:05 p.m. – CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam will give a keynote address at the Bloomberg Global Regulatory Forum in New York.

· Wednesday, October 23, 9:05 a.m. – CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam will participate in a fireside chat with Congressman Ro Khanna at DC FinTech Week in Washington, D.C.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· Tuesday, October 22 – Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Vice Chair Travis Hill will speak at the DC Fintech Week Conference in Washington, D.C.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· Tuesday, October 22, 9:00 a.m. – Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael J. Hsu will discuss the future of banking with Hyun Song Shin, Economic Adviser and Head of Research at the Bank for International Settlements, during DC Fintech Week in Washington, D.C.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· Wednesday, October 23 -- Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra delivers remarks at the DC Fintech Week Conference in Washington, D.C.

National Credit Union Administration

· Thursday, October 24, 10:00 a.m. – The NCUA holds a Board Meeting. The agenda will cover an update on cybersecurity and a briefing on New Charter and Field of Memberships.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· Friday, October 21 - 26 – The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group officially kick off their 2024 Fall Meeting.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Monday, October 21 – SIFMA holds its annual meeting in New York.

· Monday – Friday, October 22 – 25 – The Institute for International Finance Annual Membership meeting takes place in Washington, D.C.

· Tuesday, October 22 – The Institute for International Bankers holds its annual 2024 Anti-Money Laundering Conference in New York.

· Thursday, October 24, 10:00 a.m. – The Bipartisan Policy Center holds a discussion on "Scaling Local Innovations for Achieving Housing Affordability."

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Monday, October 21, 9:00 a.m. – 4:30 p.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a conference on "Geopolitics and International Trade and Finance: Knowns and Unknowns."

· Monday, October 21 - The Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center holds a virtual forum, beginning at 1 p.m., on "Tax Policy, the 2024 Election, and a Look Ahead to 2025."

· Tuesday, October 22 – Day One of The Georgetown University Law Center's Institute of International Economic Law holds its eighth annual Fintech Week Conference begins. Among the speakers today will be Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu, Representative French Hill, (R-Ark.), National Security Council Special Adviser for Cybersecurity and Critical Infrastructure Policy Carole House participates in a discussion on "The Geopolitics of Artificial Intelligence," and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Vice Chair Travis Hill.

· Tuesday, October 22, 4:00 p.m. – The Brookings Institution will hold an event entitled “Climate, development, and international financial institutions: Perspectives from the Global South.”

· Wednesday, October 23 – Day Two of The Georgetown University Law Center's Institute of International Economic Law Fintech Week Conference. Rep. Ro Khanna, (D-Calif.) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Rostin Behnam deliver remarks. Also, New York Department of Financial Services Superintendent Adrienne Harris and Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra delivers remarks.

· Wednesday, October 23 – The Association of Certified Sanctions Specialists holds its sixth annual conference on "Global Sanctions and Export Controls” in Washington, D.C. Among the speakers will be Matthew Axelrod, assistant secretary for export enforcement at the Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security, Scott Anderson, national coordinator for the Commerce Department Bureau of Industry and Security's Disruptive Technology Strike Force, and Molly Braese, chief of staff to the assistant Commerce secretary for export enforcement at the Bureau of Industry and Security.

· Wednesday, October 23, 9:00 a.m. – The Center for Global Development holds a discussion on "Bretton Woods at 80: Priorities for the Next Decade."

· Wednesday, October 24, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 9 a.m., on "Geneva Report Launch: Much Money, Little Capital, and Few Reforms: The 2023 Banking Turmoil."

· Wednesday, October 24, 11:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 11 a.m., on "Monetary Policy Transmission Across the Euro Area."

· Wednesday, October 24, 1:00 p.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a virtual discussion on "Monetary Policy During Periods of Economic Volatility." Adrian Orr, Governor of the Bank of New Zealand, will speak,.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 10/20/24 Francis Kelly 10/20/24

The Global Week Ahead

The World Bank/IMF Annual Meetings Convenes in Washington – As Does the Annual BRICS Meeting in Russia, Important Elections Being Held in Eastern Europe, What Happens Next in the Middle East After Sinwar’s Death?

October 20 - 27, 2024

This will be an extremely busy and particularly important week, both geopolitically and for global markets. The World Bank/International Monetary Fund (IMF) meetings are being held in Washington, D.C. this week. As finance ministers and central bank chiefs from around the world converge on Washington to discuss global economic issues, managing growing global debt, which, as the IMF reported this past week, is approaching $100 trillion globally – 93 percent of the global GDP – and is on track to surpass 100 percent of global GDP by 2030). On the sidelines of the meetings, G20 Finance Ministers will also meet in Washington under the chairmanship of Brazil, who is strongly advocating the voice of the “Global South” as a growing economic power.

However, as the World Bank/IMF meetings occur, leaders of the BRICS nations will gather in Russia to meet under the chair of Russian President Vladimir Putin. The meeting – seen by Moscow as something of a victory over Western sanctions and pressure to end its war on Ukraine – will see the presidents or prime ministers of China, India, Turkey, the UAE, Brazil, Iran, Egypt, and more than 24 other countries discussing issues including how to end the dominance of the US dollar and building an alternative financial system. Most observers are not expecting any significant breakthroughs. But it is also likely the BRICS will approve the invitation to up to two dozen new member countries.

Also this week, several important elections are being held in countries Russia is battling to influence and draw into its orbit: Moldova, Bulgaria, and Georgia. Russian efforts have become so brazen—especially in Moldova—that they are offering bribes to vote against the pro-EU/pro-West governments.

We also continue to watch the evolving situation in the Middle East. Israel continues to prepare for a retaliatory military strike against Iran (which could come at any time) while continuing its efforts to destroy Hezbollah’s operations in Southern Lebanon. But the news that Hamas’ political leader, Yahha Sinwar, has been killed by Israeli Forces may prove to be an inflection point in the war in Gaza. At the time of this writing, there are reports trickling in of larger numbers of Hamas fighters surrendering to Israeli Forces.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, beyond the World Bank/IMF meetings and BRICS meeting, markets are focused on the release of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book on Wednesday and the durable goods orders report on Friday. Also, the Bank of Canada meets on interest rates on Wednesday.

In Asia, China will announce its 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates on Monday and any new stimulus plans or details of already announced stimulus plans coming from Beijing. In Japan, the October CPI is out this Friday.

Turning to Europe, the European Central Bank’s consumer expectations survey will be released on Friday, as will Germany’s Ifo survey and France’s, Italy’s, and the U.K.’s consumer confidence reports.

Below is what else we are closely watching happening around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, October 20, 2024

Global

· The BRICS 1st Climate Congress will be held in Sochi, Russia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Revolution Day in Guatemala, celebrating the overthrow of a dictatorship in 1944.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Indonesia’s new president, Prabowa Sunianto, will be sworn into office.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Credit Card Spending (September)

· China FDI (YTD) (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Moldova holds presidential elections and a vote on a constitutional referendum on EU integration. There are substantial fears Russia will seek to disrupt the elections in an attempt to block a yes vote on joining the EU – to the point where Russian operatives are openly offering bribes to Moldovans to vote against joining the EU. Pro-EU President Maya Sandu is likely to receive the most votes in the election, but a runoff is also likely.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Iraq holds regional elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 21, 2024

Global

· UN Secretary-General António Guterres will be in Addis Ababa to take part in the 8th African Union – United Nations annual conference. The high-level discussions will be co-chaired by Moussa Faki Mahamat, the Chairperson of the African Union Commission and the Secretary-General. Later in the day, the Secretary-General will go to the UN Economic Commission for Africa in Addis Ababa, where he will take part in the re-inauguration ceremony of Africa Hall, which is reopening after extensive renovations to transform it into a modern conference center.

· The UN Convention on Biological Diversity (COP16) to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) in Cali, Colombia through November 1.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on maintenance of international peace and security: Anticipating the impact of scientific developments on international peace and security. In the afternoon, the Security Council will hold a briefing on Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is likely to visit Israel for talks regarding the situation in Gaza and pursue new cease-fire negotiations in the wake of the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid to speak on the economic and monetary policy outlook before hybrid event hosted by the Chartered Financial Analyst Society, Kansas City.

· Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan to speak and participate in a moderated question-and-answer session before the 2024 SIFMA (Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association) Annual Meeting in New York.

· Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in Chippewa Falls Chamber of Commerce town hall.

· USA CB Leading Index (September)

· Colombia Imports/ Balance of Trade (August)

· El Salvador Balance of Trade (September)

· Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. and Philippine military forces will participate in the Sama Sama 2024 and Kamandag 8 drills through October 24.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia RBA Hauser Speech

· China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y

· New Zealand Credit Card Spending (September)

· Malaysia GDP Growth Rate Prel Q3

· Taiwan Export Orders (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Singapore’s International Energy Week begins and runs through October 26. Speakers include industry executives and energy ministers from Tanzania, Cambodia, Laos, Australia and New Zealand, discussing energy security and transition plans.

The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Luxembourg through October 22. The ministers will discuss reaching a political agreement on next year’s fishing opportunities in the Baltic Sea.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany PPI (September)

· Greece Current Account (August)

· Poland Corporate Sector Wages (September)/ Employment Growth (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ PPI (September)

· Slovenia PPI (September)

· Slovakia Unemployment Rate (September)

· Turkey Central Government Debt (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Kuwait Inflation Rate (September)

· Lebanon Inflation Rate (September)

· Jordan Industrial Production (August)

· Oman Inflation Rate (September)/ M2 Money Supply (August)/ Total Credit (August)

· Israel M1 Money Supply (September)

· Qatar Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Mozambique’s opposition politician Venâncio Mondlane, who early vote counts placed second in the country’s October 9 presidential election, called for a countrywide strike today to protest preliminary results he’s already rejected. He urged supporters to “paralyze” the country, according to a video posted to his social media channels including YouTube on Wednesday. Mondlane has repeatedly said he was winning.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, October 22, 2024

Global

· The 16th BRICS Summit begins in Kazan, Russia, and runs through October 24. This is the first time the BRICS has met since expanding the membership to include Iran, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Ethiopia. In total, leaders from 32 countries are expected to attend. Among the agenda items will be efforts to move away from the dominance of the US dollar further, create an alternative financial infrastructure, and plan for future expansion.

The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a private meeting with ICJ briefing. In the afternoon, a briefing on the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) is scheduled to be held, followed by consultations.

· G7 Development Ministers meet in Pescara, Italy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Canada's 25% surtax on Chinese steel and aluminum imports will go into effect.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on "Fintech" before the Eighth Annual Fintech Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

· Mexico Economic Activity (August)

· Canada PPI (September)/ Raw Materials Prices (September)

· USA Redbook (October/19)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (October)/ Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (October)/ Money Supply (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/18)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea PPI (September)

· New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

· Indonesia M2 Money Supply (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Parliament will debate and vote on a €35 billion financial assistance package for Ukraine as part of the G7’s support initiative. The package leverages extraordinary profits from frozen Russian assets and aims to address Ukraine’s urgent financing needs in the face of Russia’s brutal war of aggression.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen will travel to the Western Balkans for meetings with the presidents and prime ministers of Montenegro, Serbia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina regarding further integration with the European Union, including stronger trade ties.

· NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will travel to Estonia for meetings with Estonian President Alar Karis and Prime Minister Kristen Michal. The next day, he will meet with Minister of Foreign Affairs Margus Tsahkna and then visit the Tapa Army Base, where he will address the troops together with the President of Estonia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in a panel discussion about "The future of cross-border payments: faster safer together – safe and inclusive fast payments across borders" during the IMF/WB Annual Meetings in Washington, D.C. Lagarde will also be interviewed by Bloomberg Television's Francine Lacqua at the IMF.

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will give the keynote address at the Bloomberg Global Regulatory Forum in New York.

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives the keynote speech at the annual SCION Day 2024 organized by ETH (Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule) in Zürich, Switzerland.

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane will give a speech at the Central Banking Seminar of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in New York. He then will give a speech at Colombia University.

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in a panel discussion at the Bloomberg's Global Regulatory Forum in New York.

· European Union New Car Registrations (September)

· Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing (September)

· Hungary Gross Wage (August)

· Poland Retail Sales (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Hong Kong Inflation Rate (September)/ Deposit Interest Rate (October)/ Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (August)

Wednesday, October 23, 2024

Global

· G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bankers will meet in Washington, D.C. on the sidelines of the IMF/World Bank meetings.

· G20 Trade and Investment Ministers will meet in Brasilia, Brazil through October 25.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA) followed by consultations. In the afternoon, there will be a briefing on the Middle East followed by consultations (Syria).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman to give opening remarks on second day of the Eighth Annual Fintech Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to speak on "Recognizing the Impact of Community Colleges" before the 2024 Virginia Education and Workforce Conference.

· USA MBA Purchase Index (October/18)/ Existing Home Sales (September)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/18)/ Fed Beige Book

· Mexico Retail Sales (August)

· Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision/ BoC Monetary Policy Report/ BoC Press Conference to follow.

· Argentina Economic Activity (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Consumer Confidence (October)

· Singapore Inflation Rate (September)

· Taiwan Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

· Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ New Car Sales (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a speech at an "Atlantic Council Front Page" event in Washington, D.C.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in panel "CBDC, cross border payments and the future of money in a deglobalized world" at 'Bretton woods in a new world' conference organized by Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee in Washington, D.C.

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in conversation session at 2024 IIF Annual Membership Meeting "Thriving in turbulence: Sustaining growth in a new economic landscape" in Washington, D.C,

· Turkey Consumer Confidence (October)

· Slovenia Consumer Confidence (October)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

· Poland M3 Money Supply (September)

· Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash (October)

· Russia Industrial Production (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Qatar M2 Money Supply (September)/ Total Credit Growth (September)

· Kuwait M2 Money Supply (September)/ Private Bank Lending (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Rate (September)

Thursday, October 24, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on women and peace and security.

· G20 Anti-Corruption Ministers will meet in Natal, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Montserrat holds legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack to give welcome remarks before the “Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2024" event hosted by the Center for Inflation Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the European Central Bank.

· Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (October)/ Federal Tax Revenues (September)

· Chile PPI (September)

· Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (October)

· Canada New Housing Price Index (September)

· USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (September)/ Initial Jobless Claims (October/19)/ / S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)/ New Home Sales (September)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/18)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing & Composite Index (October)/ 15 & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/23)/ Building Permits Final (September)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/23)

· Uruguay Unemployment Rate (September)

· Argentina Retail Sales (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Business Confidence (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Adv Q3

· Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (October/19)/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)

· Singapore URA Property Index Final Q3

· Malaysia Inflation Rate (September)

· India HSBC Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)

· Philippines Budget Balance (September)

· Taiwan Unemployment Rate (September)/ M2 Money Supply (September)

· China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Denmark hosts North Sea Cooperation ministers meeting in The Cooperative consists of Denmark, Belgium, the Netherlands, France, Germany, Norway, Ireland, Luxembourg and the European Commission. Great Britain participates as an observer.

· The European Court of Justice will rule on Intel's fight against a once-record €1.06 billion EU antitrust fine for rebates to laptop makers.

· The EU’s Conference of Presidents (EP President Metsola and political group leaders) will decide on the winner of the 2024 Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought. The three shortlisted candidates are (in alphabetical order): Dr Gubad Ibadoghlu, academic and anti-corruption activist in Azerbaijan; María Corina Machado, as leader of the democratic forces in Venezuela and President-elect Edmundo González Urrutia; and "Women Wage Peace" and "Women of the Sun", Israel/Palestine.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will be a panelist at the G30 39th Annual International Banking Seminar hosted by the Inter-American Bank in Washington, D.C. Later, Bailey will give the Mike Gill Memorial Lecture at the CFTC in Washington.

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in panel discussion at the 2024 IIF Annual Membership Meeting in Washington D.C.

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives remarks at a conference entitled "Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics" organized by ECB and FED Cleveland Fed in Cleveland, Ohio.

· France Business Confidence (October)/ Business Climate Indicator (October)/ HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)

· Germany HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)

· Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)

· Poland Unemployment Rate (September)

· Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)/ CBI Business Optimism Index Q4/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (October)

· Turkey MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/18)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Friday, October 25, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Semafor holds its World Economy Summit in Washington through October 25. Among the speakers will be Amos Hochstein, President Biden’s Special Advisor on Energy Security and other senior Administration officials.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (October)

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (October)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Budget Balance (August)

· USA Durable Goods Orders (September)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (October)/ Michigan Current Conditions Final (October)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/25)

· Paraguay PPI (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (October)

· Japan Tokyo CPI (October)/ Coincident Index Final (August)/ Leading Economic Index Final (August)

· Singapore Unemployment Rate Prel Q3/ Industrial Production (September)

· Malaysia Coincident Index (August)/ Leading Index (August)

· Hong Kong Business Confidence Q4

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (October 18)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will visit India through October 27. Accompanying Scholz will be a large number of German CEOs seeking new investment opportunities with India. The German government recently released a white paper entitled “Focus on India” which seeks to lay the groundwork for a stronger partnership with India. Additionally, discussions between Scholz and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will focus on greater defense cooperation.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives a re-recorded speech at a conference entitled "EU Banking Regulation at a Turning Point" organized by Universitá degli Studi di Roma Tor Vergata.

· Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (October)/ CBI Distributive Trades (October)

· Hungary Unemployment Rate (September)

· France Consumer Confidence (October)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (September)/ Jobseekers Total (September)

· Spain Unemployment Rate Q3/ PPI (September)

· Turkey Business Confidence (October)/ Capacity Utilization (October)

· Euro Area Loans to Companies & Households (September)/ M3 Money Supply (September)

· Germany Ifo Business Climate (October)/ Ifo Current Conditions (October)/ Ifo Expectations (October)

· Italy Business Confidence (October)/ Consumer Confidence (October)

· Slovenia Business Confidence (October)/ Tourist Arrivals (September)

· Greece Total Credit (September)

· Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (October)

Saturday, October 26, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan General Elections

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Georgia will hold parliamentary elections. Much like the elections earlier in the week in Moldova, significant Russian efforts to interfere and influence in the elections are expected. The elections are expected to be decisive in determining if Georgia moves toward possible EU integration or rejects integration for a tighter alliance with Russia. The ruling Georgian Dream Party has accused Western entities of attempting to destabilize the country, while the opposition and Western allies argue that the government is undermining democratic principles. If Georgian Dream wins, it has vowed to ban the main opposition parties, leading to fears of democratic backsliding, while a victory for the opposition could restore Georgia’s pro-Western course.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 27, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Uruguay holds presidential and parliamentary elections. However, the elections are being marred by a controversial $23 billion proposal to overhaul the social security system. If approved, the measure would increase minimum payouts, lower the retirement age and transfer privately managed savings to a government-run trust in what advocates see as a way to share the nation’s resources more equally.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan holds snap elections for its the House of Representatives. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is at risk of losing its majority in the lower house, which would mean the LDP would have to rely on a coalition partnership with the Komeito Party– which is currently does to hold power in the upper house. The LDP needs to win 233 seats for an outright majority.

· Uzbekistan holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Industrial Profits (YTD) (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Lithuania holds the second round of parliamentary elections.

· Bulgaria will hold snap parliamentary elections. This is the third attempt to form a government since June and the sixth snap elections held in the country since 2021.

· Liechtenstein holds a vote on a referendum on the privatization of Radio Lichtenstein.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 10/18/24 Francis Kelly 10/18/24

The Global Week Ahead

The Tense Wait for Israel’s Military Response to Iran’s Attack Continues, the European Council Gathers on Ukraine and Middle East Policy, Biden Goes to Germany, and the ECB Meets on Rates

October 13 - 20, 2024

With less than a month until the US elections, the world tensely awaits Israel's promised military response to Iran's recent missile attack as Israeli military forces continue to intensify their attacks on Hezbollah forces in Southern Lebanon. It remains unclear if Israel will attack Iranian nuclear facilities or oil production and shipping facilities or, military sites, or critical infrastructure facilities – or some variation of all of these.

The situation in the Middle East and Ukraine will be the focus of EU leaders this week as the European Council meets in Brussels. Of note, the leaders will discuss and debate further military aid to Ukraine and allowing Ukraine to use NATO/EU weapons to strike Russian positions and troops inside Russia – something Russian President Vladimir Putin has angrily threatened the West would be seen as a significant escalation crossing one of his "red lines."

The EU leaders will also discuss the recently released competitiveness reports written by former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi and how best to implement the report's sweeping recommendations. They will also discuss ongoing trade tensions with China.

Later in the week, President Biden will visit Germany for meetings with German Chancellor Scholz. Biden was scheduled to visit last week but had to cancel due to Hurricane Milton hitting Florida.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, markets are preparing for the IMF/World Bank meetings beginning on October 21st. Until then, markets are focused on US retail sales and industrial production figures released this week as indicators of where the Federal Reserve will go with rates when it meets in November.

Moving to Asia, markets remain intensely focused on China following the extraordinary efforts to stabilize the economy. Beijing releases inflation figures and important trade balance numbers this week. Elsewhere, Japan releases CPI figures.

In Europe, the European Central Bank meets on interest rates, and markets anticipate a 25-basis point cut. The UK releases inflation data, and Germany sees the release of the ZEW survey, which will better clarify how the country's economy is doing in the face of a spate of negative data.

Below are the other major political and economic events we are watching this coming week:

Sunday, October 13, 2024

Global

· The World Health Summit begins in Berlin.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Biden was scheduled to travel to Angola for meetings through October 15 with Angolan President João Lourenço to discuss increased trade and climate collaboration. However, the trip was cancelled due to Hurricane Herman hitting Florida.

· The XVI Conference of Defense Ministers of the Americas takes through October 16 I Mendoza, Argentina.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China PPI (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ New Yuan Loans (September)/ M2 Money Supply (September)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (September)/ Total Social Financing (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Lithuania holds legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi meets with senior Iraqi leaders in Baghdad. Araghchi has been traveling throughout the region this past week meeting with leaders in Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE in an effort to gather support and in advance of an expected Israeli attack on Iran.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Consumer Confidence (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 14, 2024

Global

· OPEC releases its monthly report.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to meet for consultations on 1559 report (regarding the security situation in Lebanon).

· The Nobel Prize for Economics winner is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Canada celebrates Thanksgiving. Financial markets are closed.

· Today is Columbus Day in the US. Stock markets remain open while bond markets and some banks observe the day and are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller speaks on the economic outlook before the "A 50-Year Retrospective on The Shadow Open Market Committee and Its Role in Monetary Policy" conference hosted by Stanford University.

· Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in panel discussion at the Central Bank of Argentina's Money and Banking Conference:" Fiscal Deficits, Monetary Policy and Inflation” in Argentina. Later, he participates in lecture/fireside chat," The Current State of U.S. Monetary Policy," hosted by the Department of Economics at Torcuato di Tella University in Buenos Aires.

· Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (August)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (September)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (August)

· Paraguay Balance of Trade (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese Premier Li Qiang will visit Vietnam through October 14 and sign a railway deal. It is the first official visit to Vietnam by a Chinese premier in 11 years.

· U.S. and Philippine military forces will participate in the Sama Sama 2024 and Kamandag 8 drills through October 24.

· Malaysia's parliament will convene and likely pass the Mufti Bill, which would empower religious figures to make edicts without parliamentary oversight.

· Today is Health and Sports Day in Japan. Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (September)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (September)

· Singapore GDP Growth Rate Adv Q3

· India WPI Food Index (September)/ WPI Fuel (September)/ WPI Inflation (September)/ WPI Manufacturing (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

· South Korea Export Prices (September)/ Import Prices (September)

· China Vehicle Sales (September)/ PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· UK Foreign Minister Foreign Secretary Lammy travels to Beijing and Shanghai, China for meetings.

· NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will visit Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE) and then he will travel to Germany. At SHAPE, Rutte will meet with Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), General Christopher Cavoli, and other senior officers. In the afternoon, NATO Secretary General will travel to Wiesbaden, where he will meet the German Minister of Defence, Boris Pistorius, and visit the site of NATO’s Security Assistance and Training – Ukraine (NSATU) command.

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council will meet in Luxembourg. Ministers will discuss the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East.

· The EU Environment Council will meet in Luxembourg. The agenda includes approving the conclusions on preparations for the COP29 Meetings, the UN Convention on Biodiversity, and the Global Plastics Treaty.

· NATO holds “Steadfast Noon” nuclear preparedness drills in the North Sea.

· The 10th Annual Berlin Process Summit takes place in Berlin, Germany. The event brings together representatives from Western Balkans and EU countries.

· The EU-Kazakhstan Cooperation Council meets in Luxembourg. The meeting will focus on It will then exchange views on political, economic and trade matters and cooperation (including internal reforms, rule of law and human rights, efforts to address sanction circumvention, cooperation facility, critical raw materials and sustainable connectivity). The delegations will also touch on regional and international developments and cooperation, Global Gateway Team Europe Initiatives and security.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The UK International Investment Summit, hosted by the UK Government, takes place in London. The aim of the Summit is to show “the UK is the best place in the world to do business.” However, the summit comes two weeks before Prime Minister Keir Starmer releases his new budget, which is expected to call for significantly higher taxes on corporations and wealthy individuals. On Thursday, P&O Ferries – which was prepared to roll-out a $1.4 billion port expansion in the UK as the showpiece of the conference, announced they were pulling out of the deal after Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner and Transport Minister Louise Haigh called the firm “rogue operators” and were boycotting using the firm.

· Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Swati Dhingra will speak on a panel at the Reserve Bank of India’s 90th Anniversary High-Level Conference in New Delhi, India.

· Ireland Construction PMI (September)

· Romania Industrial Production (August)/ Current Account (August)

· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (September)

· Great Britain BoE Dhingra Speech

· Poland Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account (August)

· Turkey Auto Production (September)/ Auto Sales (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

· Jordan Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Nigerian Economic Summit will be held in Abuja. Nigeria’s finance minister Wale Edun and central bank governor Yemi Cardoso will be among the speakers.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Angola Wholesale Prices (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

Tuesday, October 15, 2024

Global

· The G7 Tech and Digital Ministers meet in Cernobbio, Italy.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Yemen). In the afternoon, it is scheduled to hold a briefing on Colombia followed by consultations

· The World Trade Organization (WTO) General Council meets in Geneva, Switzerland

· The OECD’s Forum on Green Finance and Investment 2024 takes place in Paris, France.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler gives remarks virtually entitled “Career Opportunities and Diversity in Economics” at the Exploring Careers in Economics event hosted by the Federal Reserve.

· San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly speaks and participates in moderated conversation at event hosted by the New York University Stern School of Business in New York.

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to participate in moderated conversation on the economic outlook and impact on small business with the Gathering Spot.

· Canada Inflation Rate (September)/ CPI Median (September)/ Wholesale Sales Final (August)

· USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (October)/ Redbook (October/12)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)/ NOPA Crush Report

· Colombia Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

· Peru GDP Growth Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Shanghai Cooperation Organization meets in Islamabad, Pakistan. The agenda will focus on combating terrorism, enhancing security cooperation among states, and promoting economic collaboration through trade and investment initiatives.

· Japanese political parties officially kick off campaigning in advance of the October 27 general election.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

· Japan Capacity Utilization (August)/ Industrial Production Final (August)/ BoJ Adachi Speech

· India Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

· Kazakhstan GDP (September)

· Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Services PMI (September)

· New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (October/15)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU General Affairs Council will meet in Luxembourg. Ministers will discuss EU-Swiss relations, and the fight against antisemitism.

· The EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council (Energy) will meet in Luxembourg. They will discuss energy prices, and the state of the energy union and REPowerEU.

· The Second Accession Conference with Albania will meet in Luxembourg.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany Wholesale Prices (September)/ ZEW Current Conditions (October)

· Great Britain Unemployment Rate (August)/ Employment Change (August)/ Claimant Count Change (September)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (September)

· Hungary Construction Output (August)/ Industrial Production Final (August)

· France Inflation Rate Final (September)/ IEA Oil Market Report

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (September)

· Spain Inflation Rate Final (September)

· Euro Area ECB Bank Lending Survey/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (October)/ Industrial Production (August)

· Poland Inflation Rate Final (September)

· Ireland Balance of Trade (August)

· Serbia Building Permits (August)

· Turkey Budget Balance (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q2/ Inflation Rate (September)

· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (September)/ Wholesale Prices (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Africa Cyber Defense Forum, organized by the African Telecommunications Union, will take place in Kigali, Rwanda.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (August)/ SACCI Business Confidence (September)

· Nigeria Food Inflation (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

Wednesday, October 16, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to meet for consultations on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO). In the afternoon, there will be a TCC meeting on United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA).

· The International Energy Agency (IEA) releases its World Energy Outlook 2024 Report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (October/11)/ Export Prices (September)/ Import Prices (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/11)

· Canada Housing Starts (September)/ Manufacturing Sales Final (August)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Hong Kong’s Chief Executive John Lee will deliver his 3rd annual policy address. Lee is expected to focus on the economy after further curbing dissent earlier this year with the imposition of a local national security law known as Article 23.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Seiji Adachi gives a speech to business leaders in Kagawa, Japan.

· New Zealand Inflation Rate Q3

· Australia RBA Hunter Speech/ Westpac Leading Index (September)

· South Korea Unemployment Rate (September)

· Japan Machinery Orders (August)

· Philippines Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Remittances (August)

· Thailand Interest Rate Decision

· Indonesia Loan Growth (October)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate (October)

· India M3 Money Supply (October/04)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU-Gulf Cooperation Council Summit is held in Brussels. The summit will be co-chaired by the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, and the Emir of Qatar, H.H. Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, as the rotating President of the GCC. The summit is an opportunity for the EU to develop a closer partnership with the GCC and its member states (the United Arab Emirates, the Kingdom of Bahrain, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the Sultanate of Oman, the State of Qatar, and the State of Kuwait).

· The 76th Frankfurt Book Fair takes place through October 20 in Frankfurt, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a speech at the official dinner of Banka Slovenije in Ljubljana, Slovenia.

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives a speech at Bocconi University in Milan, Italy.

· Great Britain Inflation Rate (September)/ PPI Input & Output (September)/ Retail Price Index (September)

· Italy Inflation Rate Final (September)

· Ireland Residential Property Prices (August)

· Euro Area ECB Buch Speech/ ECB President Lagarde Speech/ European Council

· Poland Core Inflation Rate (September)

· Belarus Industrial Production (September)

· Russia PPI (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Qatar Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Kenya’s Senate will debate whether to dismiss Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua after the National Assembly voted to impeach him. Gachagua has denied all 11 charges against him, which include enriching himself and stirring ethnic hatred.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Retail Sales (August)

Thursday, October 17, 2024

Global

· G7 Defense Ministers meet in Napoli, Italy.

· The BRICS Business Forum and Business Council meets in Moscow, Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin will speak at the Forum.

· IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva will give a speech on the outlook for the global economy and policy priorities in advance of the IMF/World Bank meetings the following week in Washington, D.C.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee gives welcome remarks before the Fifth Annual Exploring Career Pathways in Economics and Related Fields Conference.

· Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (August)

· USA Initial Jobless Claims (October/12)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (October)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (October/05)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (October)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (October)/ Industrial Production (September)/ Capacity Utilization (September)/ Manufacturing Production (September)/ Business Inventories (August)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (October)/ EIA Natural Gas & Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/11)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/16)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (August)/ Foreign Bond Investment (August)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (August)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/16)

· Brazil Business Confidence (October)

· Paraguay Consumer Confidence (September)

· Chile Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Tertiary Industry Index (August)

· Australia Employment Change (September)/ RBA Bulletin/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Participation Rate (September)

· Singapore Non-Oil Exports (September)/ Balance of Trade (September)

· India Passenger Vehicles Sales (September)

· Kazakhstan Industrial Production (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Council will meet in Brussels. EU leaders will discuss Ukraine, the Middle East, competitiveness, migration, and general foreign affairs.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU trade ministers through October 18 in Budapest, Hungary.

· France and Ukraine will hold a Nuclear Safety Conference in Paris, France.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank meets to discuss and set interest rates. A press conference will follow.

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives speaks via video message on "Supervisory expectations on public cloud usage by European Central Bank (ECB)" at KPMG Cloud Conference 2024 "Profitable Scaling: The Cloud Journey accelerates" in Frankfurt, Germany. Later, she participates on a panel discussion at the “Financial and Regulatory Outlook Conference 2024: A New Age of Finance” organized by Oliver Wyman in Rome, Italy.

· Euro Area Balance of Trade (August)/ Inflation Rate Final (September)/ CPI Final (September)/ Core Inflation Rate Final (September)

· Switzerland Balance of Trade (September)

· Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (September)

· Italy Balance of Trade (August)

· Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing & Lending Rate (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/11)

· Great Britain BoE Woods Speech

· Belarus GDP (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Oman M2 Money Supply (August)/ Total Credit (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

· Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ M3 Money Supply (September)

Friday, October 18, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is expected to vote on a draft resolution on Haiti sanctions.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Joe Biden will visit Germany. He had been scheduled to visit last week but had to cancel due to Hurricane Milton. The previously scheduled visit was going to be a formal state visit – something no US President has enjoyed in over 40 years. This visit is now being downgraded to a simple one-day visit. Additionally, there was going to be a meeting of NATO leaders chaired by Biden at Ramstein Air Base to discuss the situation in Ukraine. That meeting will not be rescheduled for this visit.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives remarks entitled “Decentralized Finance” at the Nineteenth Annual Vienna Macroeconomics Workshop in Vienna, Austria.

· USA Building Permits Prel (September)/ Housing Starts (September)/ Housing Starts (September)/Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/18)

· Colombia ISE Economic Activity (August)

· Argentina Balance of Trade (September)/ Leading Indicator (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The APEC Finance Ministerial Meeting is held in Lima, Peru.

· ASEAN’s AIPA General Assembly meets in Vientiane.

· Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will present the annual budget.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (September)

· India Bank Loan Growth (October/04)/ Deposit Growth (October/04)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/11)

· Sri Lanka Unemployment Rate Q2

· Japan Inflation Rate (September)/ Foreign Bond Investment (October/12)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (October/12)

· China House Price Index (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q3/ NBS Press Conference

· Malaysia GDP Growth Rate Prel Q3/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Great Britain Retail Sales (September)/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (September)

· Euro Area Current Account (August)/ Construction Output (August)

· Spain Balance of Trade (August)/ Consumer Confidence (September)

· Italy Construction Output (August)/ Current Account (August)

· Serbia Current Account (August)

· Slovakia Current Account (August)

· Ukraine Balance of Trade (July) / Balance of Trade (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel M1 Money Supply (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The IMF’s executive board will meet for the first review of Ethiopia’s $3.4 billion financing program.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Rate (September)/ Building Permits (August)

· Ghana PPI (September)

· Ethiopia Inflation Rate (September)

Saturday, October 19, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz meets with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul, Turkey. The two leaders will discuss Ukraine and the Middle East.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 20, 2024

Global

· The BRICS 1st Climate Congress will be held in Sochi, Russia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Indonesia’s new president, Prabowa Sunianto, will be sworn into office.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Credit Card Spending (September)

· China FDI (YTD) (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Iraq holds regional elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 10/12/24 Francis Kelly 10/12/24

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Washington Gets Ready for IMF/World Bank Week, The FDIC’s Look at the Resolution of Systemically Important Banks, and HUD Looks at the Mortgage Market and Access to Capital

October 14 - 18, 2024

It is going to be another relatively quiet week in Washington across the board – Congress remains out of session until after the elections, and regulators are quietly preparing for the annual International Monetary Fund/World Bank weeklong meetings that begin on October 21st. With finance ministers, central bankers, and other major regulatory officials converging on Washington for back-to-back meetings, speeches, and events, there will likely be a lot to watch and report (which we will detail in next week’s report).

We would note that that The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation holds a meeting of the FDIC Systemic Resolution Advisory Committee to discuss the resolution of systemically important financial companies. This continues to be a moving target for bank regulators as banks and Congressional Republicans push back on expanding the definitions for “systemically important.”

Also, this coming week, the Department of Housing and Urban Development is partnering with Ginnie Mae to host a conference looking at the mortgage market and access to capital. With the housing market nationally struggling with still too-high interest rates and a shortage of housing inventory – an issue that has become a hot-button issue on the presidential and congressional campaign trails – this will be a particularly interesting event. In addition to this, House Financial Services Committee Ranking Democrat Representative Maxine Waters (D-CA) said in an interview last week that if Democrats win control of the House in November and she becomes Committee chair again, her number one priority issue will be housing.

Last week, regulators, lobbyists, and everyone else who follows the banking sector were jarred to see TD Bank hit with a $3 billion fine and agreed to asset caps after submitting a guilty plea for money laundering by drug traffickers. As the 10th largest bank in the U.S., the size and impact of the penalties are pretty significant.

Also last week, the digital asset exchange Crypto.com sued the Securities and Exchange Commission after learning they are the target of potential charges by the agency. Crypto argued in their lawsuit that the SEC has no authority over their business or the crypto business overall, saying the agency is acting under “an unlawful de factor rule.” This will be a very interesting case, especially in light of the Supreme Court’s Chevron decision earlier this year clipping the wings of aggressive regulatory actions.

Finally, and perhaps most impactful to markets, the Federal Trade Commission and the Department of Justice’s Antitrust Division jointly released their final version of Hart-Scott-Rodino rules (e.g., new rules dealing with mergers and acquisitions). One aspect of the rules that private equity and other acquisition firms took note of is how the regulators want to look at how Big Tech firms and private equity are acquiring large amounts of smaller companies in a bid to snuff out oncoming competition potentially.

Below is a listing of all the other significant regulatory-related events this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· The Senate is in Pro Forma session and not returning to work until after the election. No work and no hearings are scheduled. They will return to work on November 12.

House of Representatives

· The House is out of session until after the November elections. No business or hearings are scheduled. They will return to work on November 12.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Tuesday, October 15, 1:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler gives remarks virtually entitled “Career Opportunities and Diversity in Economics” at the Exploring Careers in Economics event hosted by the Federal Reserve.

· Friday, October 18, 12:10 p.m. (Vienna, Austria) – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives remarks entitled “Decentralized Finance” at the Nineteenth Annual Vienna Macroeconomics Workshop in Vienna, Austria.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· Tuesday, October 15, 8:30 a.m. – HUD and Ginnie Mae will host a strategic summit on "Mortgage Market Resilience and Access to Credit." Participants include am Valverde, acting president of Ginnie Mae; Daniel Hornung, special assistant to the president for economic policy at the National Economic Council; Julia Gordon, assistant HUD secretary for housing and Federal Housing Administration commissioner; Bob Broeksmit, president/CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association; David Dworkin, president/CEO of the National Housing Conference; Ted Tozer, fellow in the Housing Finance Policy Center at the Urban Institute and former Ginnie Mae President.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Tuesday, October 15, 2:00 p.m. – 6:00 p.m. – SIFMA will hold its annual Private Credit Forum. SEC Commissioner Hester Pierce will deliver remarks.

· Thursday, October 17, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Tuesday, October 15, 6:00 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will receive the Pioneer Award from the Asian Pacific American Bar Association (APABA) of Washington, D.C. at the Annual Gala.

· Wednesday, October 16, 9:00 a.m. – 1:00 p.m. – The CFTC’s The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Division of Clearing and Risk will hold a public roundtable Oct. 16 from 9:00 a.m. to 1:00 p.m., to discuss existing, new, and emerging issues in clearing. The roundtable will be held in the Conference Center at CFTC's headquarters at Three Lafayette Centre, 1155 21st Street N.W., Washington, D.C.

· Wednesday, October 16, 11:00 a.m. – CFTC Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will speak on a keynote fireside chat at FIX Trading Community’s Americas Trading Conference 2024 in New York.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· Tuesday, October 15, 9:00 a.m. – The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation holds a meeting of the FDIC Systemic Resolution Advisory Committee to discuss the resolution of systemically important financial companies.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· Friday, October 18, 8:00 a.m. – 6:00 p.m. – The FTC hosts the Second Federal Trade Commission Conference on Marketing and Public Policy in Washington, D.C.

Farm Credit Administration

· Thursday, October 10, 10:00 a.m. – The Farm Credit Administration holds a board meeting. They are scheduled to vote on a proposed rule dealing with Annual Independent Audits and Internal Controls over Financial Reporting Requirements

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Tuesday, October 15, 9:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance holds a hybrid forum on the IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report.

· Tuesday, October 15, 2:00 p.m. – 6:00 p.m. – SIFMA will hold its annual Private Credit Forum. SEC Commissioner Hester Pierce will deliver remarks.

· Thursday, October 17, 8:00 a.m. – The Brookings Institution holds an event entitled “Meeting the global climate finance challenge: A conversation with UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell” in Washington, D.C.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Sunday and Monday, October 13 – 14 - Stanford University's Hoover Institution holds a conference, beginning at 11:05 a.m., on "A 50-Year Retrospective on The Shadow Open Market Committee and Its Role in Monetary Policy” in Stanford, California. Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will deliver remarks.

· Friday, October 17, 12:00 p.m. – The Urban Institute holds a discussion on "Sustainable Homeownership and Wealth Preservation for Communities of Color."

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 10/11/24 Francis Kelly 10/11/24

The Global Week Ahead

The Sad Anniversary of Hamas’ Murderous Assault on Israel, Biden Travels to Germany and Angola, US Supreme Court Begins its Autumn Term, and Germany’s Foreign Minister to Travel to China

October 6 - 13, 2024

Monday is the one-year anniversary of Hamas' surprise attack on Israel, killing more than 1,200 people and taking hundreds more hostage, changing the security situation in the greater Middle East and leading to war in Gaza and now in Lebanon against Hezbollah. Markets are now bracing for an Israeli retaliatory strike on Iran after Iran attacked Israel with another rocket attack this past week. The biggest question is whether Israel will attack Iran's nuclear facilities. Will be sending updates as the situation progresses this week.

Also this week, President Joe Biden will travel to Germany for a US president's first official state visit in almost four decades. While in Germany, Biden will chair a meeting of NATO state leaders to discuss the situation in Ukraine and likely address the issue of whether Ukraine will be allowed to use NATO-supplied weapons to proactively attack Russian targets inside Russia – something which Moscow has said would be a dramatic provocation. Russian President Vladimir Putin has – again – suggested the use of nuclear weapons. Still, most experts we have spoken to do not believe he will use them and instead ramp up asymmetric attacks on Western targets, impacting market operations (e.g., cyberattacks, cutting critical communication cables, etc.).

Biden will travel from Germany to Angola. He is following up on a promise he made to African leaders in 2022 that he would visit Africa and seek to shore up relations with the continent.

Elsewhere in the world, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is expected to travel to China this week to discuss the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East. She is also expected to discuss the EU's ongoing deliberations to effectively block Chinese Electric Vehicles (EVs) from being imported to China – a hot-button issue between China and the EU.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, Markets are looking at the US September CPI figures released this week after the surprise uptick in employment numbers last week. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee meeting minutes and the Michigan consumer survey for October are out this week.

In Europe, the European Central Bank's meeting minutes are also being released this week. The UK releases GDP numbers, while Germany releases factory orders, industrial production, and trade figures—all closely watched to see if Germany is beginning to pull out of its economic doldrums. France will present its 2025 budget this week, which will be important as the fragile political coalition could be impacted.

This week in Asia, China returns from its week-long Golden Week holiday, and the country's stock exchanges reopen. It also releases CPOI and PPI figures. Japan releases its Monthly Labor Survey, Economy Watchers Survey, and PPI figures—all important figures to watch as Japan prepares for snap parliamentary elections on October 27.

Below is what else we are tracking around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, October 6, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Brazil holds local elections, including for Mayor of Sao Paulo.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In Kazakhstan, a referendum on the construction of a nuclear power plant (NPP) will be held. Opinion polling indicates that the most likely scenario will be a vote in favor of constructing the plant. If approved, it will help Kazakhstan's domestic electricity supply challenges and reduce its dependence on both fossil fuels and electricity imports from abroad.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Industrial Production (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (September)/ Foreign Direct Investment (September)

· Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· London is bracing for a large protest in support of Palestinians.

· Bosnia and Herzegovina will hold local elections.

· In Italy, Matteo Salvini's League holds an annual meeting in Pontida.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Tunisia will hold a presidential election. President Kais Saied will almost certainly win as opposition parties are boycotting the election.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 7, 2024

Global

· Today is the one-year anniversary of Hamas’ assault on Israel, murdering more than 1,200 people and the taking of hundreds of civilian hostages, many of whom have been subsequently murdered.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Supreme Court begins its fall session. They will hear cases dealing with online pornography, transgender rights, and nuclear waste storage.

· A Colombian Court will hear evidence against ex-president Alvaro Uribe on bribery and fraud charges.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman will speak at the Independent Bankers Association of Texas (IBAT) Annual Convention in San Antonio, Texas.

· Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Bank Holding Company Association (BHCA) Fall Seminar.

· St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy and participates in moderated conversation before the Money Marketeers of New York University Inc.

· Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

· Colombia Exports (August)/ Inflation Rate (September)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (September)

· USA Consumer Credit Change (August)/ Used Car Prices (September)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· El Salvador Inflation Rate (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Leaders of the ASEAN bloc meet for a three-day summit in the Laotian capital, Vientiane, to discuss economic and security issues. Japan's newly appointed prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, also joins the meeting to talk about East Asia's role in the Southeast Asian club of 10 nations. More than 1,000 CEOs and senior executives along with world leaders will attend.

. Pakistan is bracing for nationwide protests to mark the one-year anniversary of the start of the Israel-Hamas conflict. The anti-Israel demonstrations are being held by the Muslim-majority nation's major Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami.

· South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol visits Southeast Asia, stopping in the Philippines and Singapore. In the city-state, he is slated to attend a business forum highlighting economic cooperation and is also expected to speak on issues including Korean unification at a separate lecture.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (September)

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (September)

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Thailand Inflation Rate (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Japan Coincident Index Prel (August)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (August)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· China Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Philippines Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is expected to visit China for meetings. She is expected to discuss the ongoing EU deliberations on EV tariffs and the situation in Ukraine and the Mideast.

· The Eurogroup meets in Luxembourg. They are scheduled to discuss a recovery plan for Europe, the situation in Ukraine, EU energy policy, and the upcoming G20 finance ministers and central bank governors, climate finance, tax policy, and pending legislative proposals dealing with digital finance and capital markets union.

· The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Council of Foreign Ministers will meet in Moscow.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a speech at the Deutsche Bundesbank's symposium, "Future of payments: trends and innovations in Germany and Europe," in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane will give a keynote at the ECB Conference on Monetary Policy: bridging science and practice in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Germany Factory Orders (August)

· Romania Retail Sales (August)

· Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (September)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (September)

· Hungary Balance of Trade Prel (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

· France Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Slovakia Retail Sales (August)

· Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Euro Area Retail Sales (August)

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ Vehicle Sales (September)

· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Business Confidence (September)

· Jordan GDP Growth Rate Q2/ PPI (August)

· Qatar Balance of Trade (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The African Oil Week conference will kick off in Cape Town, South Africa.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Tuesday, October 8, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Great Lakes region, followed by consultations.

· The United Nations Human Rights Council will meet to discuss Honduras and Haiti.

· The IMF releases its World Economic Outlook.

· The United Nations International Conference on Victims of Terrorism co-organized by the United Nations Office of Counter-Terrorism (UNOCT) and the Kingdom of Spain will take place on 8 and 9 October 2024 at Palacio de Congresos Europa in Vitoria-Gasteiz, Spain.

· The 7th Vienna Energy Security Dialogue takes place in Vienna, Austria.

· BRICS Senior Health officials will meet in Moscow through October 9 in advance of the BRICS Health Ministers this week.

· The 11th Meeting of Heads of BRICS Intellectual Property Agencies meets in Moscow through October 9.

· The BRICS Think Tank Network for Finance Conference will be held in Moscow (in person and via video).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Latin American and Caribbean Competition Forum begins in Santa Domingo, The Dominican Republic.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson will give a speech on “The Discount Window: 1913-2000” at Davidson, College, Davidson, North Carolina.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler will give a speech on Global Inflation at the European Central Bank Conference on Monetary Policy 2024, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic gives remarks and participates in moderated conversation on the economic outlook before the Atlanta consular corps luncheon.

· Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins speaks before the 23rd annual Regional & Community Bankers Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (September)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Redbook (October/05) / RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (October)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/04)

· Chile Inflation Rate (September)

· Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Brazil Car Production (September)

· Argentina Industrial Production (August)

· Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Regional election results are scheduled in India's northern Jammu and Kashmir region. They were the first polls in the former state -- now a federally-governed territory -- in about a decade and came five years after Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government scrapped its special autonomy status.

· China’s stock exchange reopens after a weeklong holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Current Account (August)

· Japan Average Cash Earnings (August)/ Household Spending (August)/ Overtime Pay (August)/ Current Account (August)

· Australia NAB Business Confidence (September)/ RBA Meeting Minutes/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (September)

· Philippines Unemployment Rate (August)/ Industrial Production (August)

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (September)

· Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU’s Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg. Theya re expected to discuss a recovery plan for Europe, the situation in Ukraine, EU energy policy, and the upcoming G20 finance ministers and central bank governors, climate finance, tax policy, and pending legislative proposals dealing with digital finance and capital markets union.

· NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will meet with Finland’s President, Alexander Stubb, in Brussels.

· The European Parliament will debate the state of Georgia’s declining democracy, Russian attempts to interfere in Moldova’s presidential elections and the situation in Sudan with EU foreign policy chief Borrell. Resolutions on Georgia and Moldova will be put to a vote on Wednesday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will chair the keynote session at the ECB Conference on Monetary Policy: bridging science and practice in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul will give the keynote speech and participate in a fireside chat at the S&P Global Ratings European Financial Institutions Conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (September)

· Germany Industrial Production (August)

· France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account (August)

· Greece Balance of Trade (August)

· Hungary Budget Balance (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Tourist Arrivals (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Kenya Interest Rate Decision

· Mozambique Presidential Election

Wednesday, October 9, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) followed by consultations.

· G7 Health Ministers meet through October 11 in Ancona, Italy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook will give remarks on “Entrepreneurship and Innovation” at the Women for Women Summit presented by the College of Charleston School of Business, Charleston, South Carolina.

· The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank’s Payments Symposium will be held Chicago. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Richmond Fed President, and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Meister are scheduled to speak.

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic gives welcome remarks before the Greater Atlanta Home Builders Association monthly meeting.

· Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan speaks on the current state of the economy before the Future of Global Energy Conference presented by Shell USA, Inc. and co-hosted by the Greater Houston Partnership.

· Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins speaks before the Worcester Regional Research Bureau 39th Annual Meeting.

· San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in moderated conversation on monetary policy and the economic outlook at Boise State University.

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (October/04) /Wholesale Inventories (August)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/04) / / FOMC Minutes released

· Brazil Inflation Rate (September)

· Mexico Inflation Rate (September)

· Peru Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan will formally dissolve its lower house ahead of snap elections to be held on Oct. 27, when newly elected Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) look to strengthen their numbers in parliament. Ishiba was elected LDP leader -- and became the country's newest prime minister -- as Fumio Kishida opted not to vie for another term in Japan's top job.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (October)

· New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

· Indonesia Retail Sales (August)

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (September)

· India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio

· Kazakhstan PPI (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU employment, social policy, and health ministers in Budapest, Hungary through October 10.

UK onservative MPs start voting to determine the final two candidates vying to become the party’s next leader, after Rishi Sunak announced his resignation in the wake of the party’s heavy general election defeat. The outcome is announced tomorrow. Party members will then vote on these two options

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will participate in a session entitled "The true cost of greening the world" at IUCN Leaders Forum 2024 "Harnessing innovation, enabling conversation" in Geneva, Switzerland.

· Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (August)

· Ireland Industrial Production (August)

· Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· France New Car Registrations (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Interest Rate Decision/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Jordan Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Mozambique holds presidential and parliamentary elections. Daniel Chapo is the presidential candidate for the governing Liberation Front of Mozambique (Frelimo) and is highly likely to be elected president.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Tanzania Inflation Rate (September)

Thursday, October 10, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to have a private meeting on Somalia, and in the afternoon a TCC meeting on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO).

· The G7 holds a Ministerial meeting on Industry and Technological Innovation in Rome, Italy.

· The 4th Meeting of BRICS Deputy Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors takes place through October 11 in Moscow.

· The 14th Meeting of BRICS Health Ministers will take place through October 11 in Moscow.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Biden will travel to Germany for the first state visit of a US president in four decades. He will meet with Chancellor Olaf Scholz and President Frank-Walter Steinmeier. Additionally, Biden will lead a summit on the Ukraine War at the US airbase in Ramstein. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin participates in fireside chat,"2025 Economic Outlook and Beyond" before the Virginia Maritime Association 2024 International Trade Symposium.

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives remarks and participates in a moderated discussion on the economic outlook and monetary policy before event organized by Binghamton University.

· USA Inflation Rate (September)/ CPI (September)/ Initial Jobless Claims (October/05) / EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/04)/ 15 & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/09)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October)/9

· Mexico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Argentina Inflation Rate (September)

· Peru Interest Rate Decision

· Brazil Retail Sales (August)

· Ecuador Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Taiwan celebrates its National Day, with new President Lai Ching-te due to mark the occasion with a speech. With tensions with China at very tense levels, comments being made in Taipei will be closely watched.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Bank Lending (September)/ Foreign Bond Investment (October/05)/ PPI (September)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (October/05)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (September)

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (October)/ Private House Approvals MoM Final (August)/ Building Permits MoM Final (August)

· Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Malaysia Unemployment Rate (August)

· Indonesia Motorbike Sales (September)/ Car Sales (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· EU Justice and Home Affairs Council ministers will meet in Luxembourg through October 11. They will discuss fighting child sexual abuse, Schengen, EU law enforcement IT systems, asylum and migration, and internal security.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Ms. Maia Sandu, President of Moldova, regarding joining the EU.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (September)

· Romania Balance of Trade (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

· Hungary Inflation Rate (September)

· Slovakia Industrial Production (August)

· Turkey Industrial Production (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Participation Rate (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/04)

· Italy Industrial Production (August)

· Slovenia Industrial Production (August)

· Greece Inflation Rate (September)

· Ireland Inflation Rate (September)

· Serbia Interest Rate Decision

· Euro Area ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

· Ukraine Inflation Rate (September)

· Belarus Inflation Rate (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Gold Production (August)/ Mining Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)

· Egypt Inflation Rate (September)

· Mozambique Inflation Rate (September)

Friday, October 11, 2024

Global

· The Nobel Peace Prize winner is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank’s Community Bankers Symposium will be held in Chicago. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will speak along with Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman will give remarks on community banking at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Community Bankers Symposium (Virtual).

· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee gives opening remarks before the 18th Annual Community Bankers Symposium, “Community Banking: Navigating a Change Landscape" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

· Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan participates in panel before the Federal Home Loan Bank of Dallas Women in Financial Services Conference.

· Mexico Industrial Production (August)

· Canada Unemployment Rate (September)/ Participation Rate (September)/ BoC Business Outlook Survey

· USA PPI (September)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (October)/ Michigan Current Conditions Prel (October)/ WASDE Report/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/11)

· Colombia Consumer Confidence (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Macao will hold a leadership election with just one candidate, former top court president Sam Hou-fai. Only the roughly 400 pro-Beijing members of an election committee are allowed to vote. Sam recently described the development of the casino industry, which powers Macao's economy, as "disorderly" and "barbaric.”

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (September)/ Food Inflation (September)/ Visitor Arrivals (August)

· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (October)/ Machine Tool Orders (September)

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (July)

· South Korea Interest Rate Decision

· Malaysia Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

· Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/04)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)

· China Vehicle Sales (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany Inflation Rate Final (September)/ Current Account (August)

· Romania Inflation Rate (September)

· Great Britain Goods Trade Balance (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Construction Output (August)/ GDP (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (September)

· Slovakia Construction Output (August)

· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (September)

· Turkey Current Account (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

· Serbia Inflation Rate (September)

· Russia Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account Q3/ Inflation Rate (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Oman M2 Money Supply (August)/ Total Credit (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (August)/ SACCI Business Confidence (September)

· Angola Inflation Rate (September)

Saturday, October 12, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Spain: National Day, aka Dia de la Hispanidad, commemorating the day in 1492 when Christopher Columbus caught sight of the New World. Includes annual military parade in Madrid.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 13, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Biden travels to Angola for meetings through October 15 with Angolan President João Lourenço to discuss increased trade and climate collaboration.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Lithuania holds legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Consumer Confidence (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 10/6/24 Francis Kelly 10/6/24

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Washington’s Financial Regulators Go Quiet A Month Before the Elections; Face-Off Between the Fed and the FDIC on Basel III, and Regulated Election Betting Starts Up

October 7 - 11, 2024

Congress is out campaigning in their home states and districts (although they may briefly come back in next week for an emergency vote on disaster aid for those areas recently slammed by Hurricane Helene). All the regulators are here in town but carrying very light schedules. The most significant events we could out there are the monthly board meeting of the Farm Credit Bureau and an SEC event being cohosted with the Federal Thrift Retirement Investment Board entitled Your TSP Account – What to Think About When Nearing Retirement or Considering Leaving the Government.”

Also this week, there are a number of speeches by Federal Reserve Board Governors this week (there are always a lot of Fed Governor speeches every week other than the black-out weeks in advance of the Fed Open Market Committee meetings, aren’t there?).

While Congress is out, that does not mean they are quietly working away at various legislative initiatives. Word came down several days ago that Senator Bill Hagerty (R-TN) is working on a new crypto regulatory bill. Hagerty is regularly mentioned as a possible Trump Cabinet member – perhaps Treasury Secretary – so whatever he proposes should be paid attention to – although, considering the extremely short post-election Congressional calendar, his bill has virtually zero chance of being passed this year and would have to be considered in the new Congress in 2025.

Also, this past week, there were reports that the Federal Reserve’s revised Basel III regulations are caught up in a quiet fight with the FDIC Board—specifically, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director (and FDIC Board member) Rohit Chopra. Chopra is holding out for a much more stringent version of the regulation—more akin to the first draft.

And bringing this note back to the elections: A federal appeals court this past Wednesday cleared the way for the financial exchange Kalshi to move forward with the first fully regulated election-betting markets in the U.S. Place your bets, everyone!

Below is a listing of all the other significant regulatory-related events this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· The Senate is in a Pro Forma session and not returning to work until after the election. No work and no hearings are scheduled. They will return to work on November 12.

House of Representatives

· The House is out of session until after the November elections. No business or hearings are scheduled. They will return to work on November 12.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Monday, October 7, 1:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman will speak at the Independent Bankers Association of Texas (IBAT) Annual Convention, San Antonio, Texas.

· Tuesday, October 8, 3:00 a.m. (Frankfurt, Germany time) – Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler will give a speech on Global Inflation at the European Central Bank Conference on Monetary Policy 2024, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.

· Tuesday, October 8, 7:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson will give a speech on “The Discount Window: 1913-2000” at Davidson College, Davidson, North Carolina.

· Wednesday, October 10, 9:15 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook will give remarks on “Entrepreneurship and Innovation” at the Women for Women Summit presented by the College of Charleston School of Business, Charleston, South Carolina.

· Wednesday, October 10 – The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank’s Payments Symposium will be held Chicago. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Richmond Fed President, and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Meister are scheduled to speak.

· Friday, October 11 – The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank’s Community Bankers Symposium will be held in Chicago. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will speak along with Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman will give remarks on community banking at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Community Bankers Symposium (Virtual).

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Tuesday, October 8, 10:00 a.m. – The SEC and the Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board will host “Your TSP Account – What to Think About When Nearing Retirement or Considering Leaving the Government” (a virtual event)

· Wednesday, October 9, 4:30 p.m. – SEC Chair Gary Gensler will participate in a fireside chat at the NYU Law Institute for Corporate Governance & Finance in New York.

· Thursday, October 10, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Tuesday, October 8 & 9 – The CFTC hosts a hybrid event as part of World Investor Week entitled Explore Relationship Confidence Scams and Anti-Fraud Resources in Washington, D.C. and Austin, Texas.

· Wednesday, October 9, 7:00 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will speak on a keynote fireside chat at the Northwind Professional Institute’s 2024 Disruptive Technologies Invitational Forum in Cambridge, Canada.

· Friday, October 11, 11:50 a.m. (MT) – CFTC Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will speak virtually on a fireside chat titled “Pushing Crypto Forward in the US” at Permissionless III, presented by Blockworks and BANKLESS in Salt Lake City, Utah.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· Friday, October 11, 9:00 a.m. – Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu will speak about the OCC Initiatives in Support of Minority Depository Institutions at the National Bankers Association2024 Annual Conference in Washington, D.C.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

· Wednesday, October 9, 10:00 a.m. – The Farm Credit Insurance Corporation holds a board meeting. The agenda includes Quarterly FCSIC financial reports, Quarterly report on insured obligations, Quarterly report on annual performance Plan, Annual performance plan and Annual budget (Open), and Quarterly report on insurance risk (Closed)

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Sunday – Tuesday, October 6-8 – the American Bankers Association holds its Bank Marketing Conference in Chicago, Illinois.

· Tuesday – Thursday, October 8 -10 – The American Bankers Association holds its annual Financial Crimes Enforcement Conference in Arlington, Virginia.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Wednesday, October 9, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Finance will hold an event entitled “A holistic perspective on climate and financial policies”

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 10/4/24 Francis Kelly 10/4/24

The Global Week Ahead

Hezbollah’s Leader Nasrallah is Dead, Leaving Markets and World Leaders Asking: What Happens Now? The US Vice Presidential Candidates Debate As U.S. Dockworkers Prepare To Go On Strike, And Mexico Inaugurates A New President

September 29 - October 5, 2024

With the confirmation of the death of Hezbollah's Hassan Nasrallah, markets and world leaders are asking the question: What happens next? The risk of war between Israel and Hezbollah and possibly Iran has reached dangerous new levels. Nasrallah's death is a massive blow to Iran's power and prestige in the Middle East, and it is unclear if or how Iran could retaliate. The only clear thing is Israel is determined to cripple Hezbollah's military threat to Israel permanently, as we saw over the weekend as Israeli airstrikes continued to pound Hezbollah positions.

Meanwhile, in the United States this coming week, Vice Presidential candidates Senator J.D. Vance (R-OH) and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz will debate on Tuesday. This will happen as the International Longshoreman's Association is expected to go on strike on both coasts, shutting down 36 major ports just as imports ramp up to meet Christmas shopping demand. The union and port owners have been stalemated over a new contract for over a year.

Elsewhere in the Americas, Mexico will hold the historic inauguration of Claudia Sheinbaum as the country's new—and first female—president. Succeeding President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), she is expected to continue pursuing his controversial populist agenda, which includes the recent much-criticized reform of the national judiciary and possibly a ramp-up of nationalization of foreign-owned assets in the country.

In Asia, Japan's parliament will formally vote to approve a new Prime Minister—former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba—to succeed Fumio Kishida. The significance of this transition is that Ishiba is a strong military defense hawk who advocates a significant ramp-up of Japan's military and military as well as the creation of an “Asian NATO” – which would mean stationing Japanese troops in other countries, including the US. He has also advocated legislation that would allow women to become reigning empresses, something opposed by many of his fellow Liberal Democratic Party lawmakers.

On the global economic radar screen this coming week, markets will be looking closely at the US jobs report, ISM indicators, and JOLTS reports for signs of where unemployment is going. Additionally, Fed Chair Jay Powell will give an important speech on the economic outlook.

In Europe, German and Italian CPI figures will be a significant focus of the markets. Markets are also listening for European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's remarks before a European Parliament Committee hearing this week.

In Asia, the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) summary of opinions will be released, as well as the BoJ's Tankan Survey and labor market figures. China celebrates the 75th Anniversary of the establishment of the People's Republic of China and the beginning of the Golden Week holidays, which run through October 7. It also releases on Monday much-watched manufacturing PMIs.

Here is what else we are tracking in the week ahead:

Sunday, September 29, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Austria holds Parliamentary elections. 183 seats of the National Council and lower house of parliament are up. The far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) is currently polling at 26%, and the center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP), led by incumbent Chancellor Karl Nehammer, with 25%. The Social Democratic Party (SPÖ) is close behind with 21% (which means no single party will likely secure a majority, forcing a coalition government).

· Ukraine observes the 83rd anniversary of Babyn Yar, the two-day slaughter of more than 30,000 Jews in Kyiv by the Nazis.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (August)/ Private Bank Lending (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 30, 2024

Global

· The UN General Assembly concludes today. A list of the final national leaders speaking can be found at UN Journal.         

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to Haiti [mandate of the Multinational Security Support Mission (MSSM)]. Soon after, the Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo sanctions. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the maintenance of international peace and security.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· El Salvadorian President Bukele will be meeting with Argentine President Javier Milei in Buenos Aires. The two conservative leaders are expected to discuss AI investment and other tech issues.

· The US Congress is out of session until November.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to speak before the National Association for Business Economics 66th Annual Meeting, "Finding Harmony in the Noise: Transitioning to a New Normal" in Nashville, Tennessee.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” at the Georgia Bankers Association President/CEO Conference, Charleston, South Carolina.

· Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (August)/ Nominal Budget Balance (August)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Chile Copper Production (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

· USA Chicago PMI (September)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (September)/ Quarterly Grain Stocks - Corn & Soy & Wheat (September)

· Colombia Unemployment Rate (August)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (August)

· El Salvador Current Account Q2

· Paraguay Current Account Q2

· Uruguay Current Account Q2/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Mexico Fiscal Balance (August)

· Costa Rica Unemployment Rate Q2

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Philippine Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro will give a major speech on South China Sea dispute in Manila, Philippines.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

· Japan Industrial Production Prel (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Housing Starts (August)/ Construction Orders (August)

· New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (September)

· Australia Housing Credit (August)/ Private Sector Credit (August)

· China NBS Non-Manufacturing/ Manufacturing/ General PMI (September)/ Caixin Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI (September)/ Current Account Final Q2

· Singapore Import/ Export Prices (August)/ PPI (August)

· Malaysia M3 Money Supply (August)

· Thailand Current Account (August)/ Private Consumption & Investment (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

· Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (September)/ PPI (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)

· India Government Budget Value (August)/ Infrastructure Output (August)/ Current Account Q2/ External Debt Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The trial of Marine Le Pen, 26 others and the RN on suspicion of embezzlement of European public funds in Paris.

· The Vaclav Havel Human Rights Prize announced in Strasbourg, France. The finalists are Venezuelan democracy leader María Corina Machada, Azerbaijanian human rights leader Akif Gurbanov, and Georgian human rights leader Babutsa Pataraia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give an introductory statement at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

· Germany Import Prices (August)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (September)/ Bavaria CPI (September)/ Brandenburg CPI (September)/ Hesse CPI (September)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (September)/ Saxony CPI (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

· Great Britain Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ Business Investment Final Q2/ BoE Consumer Credit (August)/ Mortgage Lending & Approvals (August)/ M4 Money Supply (August)/ Net Lending to Individuals (August)

· Hungary PPI (August)

· Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (September)

· Poland Inflation Rate Prel (September)

· Spain Current Account (July)

· Slovenia Inflation Rate (September)

· Greece PPI (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

· Italy Inflation Rate (September)

· Ireland Retail Sales (August)

· Serbia Balance of Trade (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

· Ukraine Balance of Trade (July)/ Current Account (August)

· Russia M2 Money Supply (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Unemployment Rate Q2

· Kuwait Inflation Rate (August)/ M2 Money Supply (August)/ Private Bank Lending (August)

· Qatar M2 Money Supply (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The International Court of Justice holds public hearings on a land and maritime dispute between Gabon and Equatorial Guinea.

· Today is Independence Day in Botswana, celebrating when the country gained its independence from the UK in 1964..

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa M3 Money Supply (August)/ Private Sector Credit (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Budget Balance (August)

· Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (September)

· Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (August)

· Kenya Inflation Rate (September)

· Egypt M2 Money Supply (August)

Tuesday, October 1, 2024

Global

· Switzerland assumes the Chair of the UN Security Council for the month of October.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Claudia Sheinbaum will be sworn in as Mexico’s new President and first woman president.

· US Vice Presidential candidates J.D. Vance and Tim Walz will take part in an election debate.

· The International Longshoreman’s Association is expected to begin a strike in more than a dozen major ports along the East and West Coast.

· Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will likely face a second non-confidence vote in two weeks.

· Widespread protests are expected by pensioners I Caracas, Venezuela.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to give welcome and opening remarks before the" Technology-Enabled Disruption: Implications of AI, Big Data, and Remote Work" conference organized by the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Boston and Richmond in Atlanta, Georgia.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech entitled “AI, Big Data, and the Path Ahead for Productivity” at the Conference on “Technology-Enabled Disruption: Implications of AI, Big Data, and Remote Work," Atlanta, Georgia.

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (August)

· USA Redbook (September28)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (September)/ JOLTs Job Openings (August)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (September)/ Construction Spending (August)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (September)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (September)/ JOLTs Job Quits (August)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (September)/ Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/27)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (September)

· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Peru Inflation Rate (September)

· Argentina Tax Revenue (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is China’s National Day celebrating the end of dynastic rule and the 75th anniversary of People’s Republic of China. It is a public holiday and the beginning of its Golden Week which runs through October 7.

· The ASEAN-Japan Cybersecurity Policy Meeting will begin in Singapore.

· Japan will formally elect former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba as Prime Minister.

· The Indian region of Jammu and Kashmir will begin its third phase of voting for assembly elections, and the Indian state of Haryana will hold its assembly elections as well.

· Today is Independence Day in Tuvalu. The island nation celebrates when it gained its independence from the UK in 1978.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence & Utilization Q3/ Building Permits (August)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (October/01)

· Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (September)/ Building Permits (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Private House Approvals Prel (August)/ Commodity Prices (September)/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (September)

· Japan Unemployment Rate (August)/ Jobs/applications ratio (August)/ BoJ Summary of Opinions/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (September)

· South Korea Exports/ Imports/ Balance of Trade (September)

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ PPI (August)

· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (September)

· Kazakhstan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Pakistan Inflation Rate (September)/ Wholesale Prices (September)/ Balance of Trade (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Former Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte takes over from Jens Stoltenberg as NATO secretary general.

· Ukraine will mark its Defenders Day national holiday.

· Newly installed French Prime Minister Michel Barnier delivers his first general policy statement to Parliament, including the 2025 budget.

· Wikileaks founder Julian Assange will address the Council of Europe.

· Today is Cyprus Independence Day, marking when the nation became independent from the UK in 1960.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives the welcoming speech at the 5th Joint BoC - ECB - NY FED Conference on Expectations Surveys, Central Banks and the Economy in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will chair the keynote lecture at 5th Joint Bank of Canada - ECB – New York FED Conference on Expectations Surveys, Central Banks and the Economy in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Hungary Balance of Trade Final (July)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Switzerland Retail Sales (August)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Inflation Rate Flash (September)/ CPI Flash (September)

· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing

· Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)/ New Car Sales (September)

· Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)

· France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The Asia Cooperation Dialogue's heads of state meeting will take place in Doha, Qatar, through October 1.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (September)

Wednesday, October 2, 2024

Global

· G7 Interior Ministers meet in Mirabella Eclano, Italy, through October 4.

· The Jewish High Holy Days will begin at sundown with the start of Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish new year.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem will give welcome remarks before the Community Banking Research Conference 2024:"Where Research and Policy Meet," co-sponsored by the Federal Reserve System, the Conference of State Bank Supervisors (CSBS) and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation in St. Louis, Missouri. Later, Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman will give a keynote speech at the conference.

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to speak on the national economic outlook before the 2024 WilmingtonBiz Conference and Expo in Wilmington, Delaware.

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (September)/ Industrial Production (August)

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/27)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/27)/ ADP Employment Change (September)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (September/27)/ EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (September/27)

· Mexico Business Confidence (September)/ Gross Fixed Investment (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Colombia Exports (August)

· Paraguay Inflation Rate (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will visit Pakistan through October 4.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia Ai Group Industry/ Construction/ Manufacturing Index (September)

· South Korea Inflation Rate (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index & Outlook Q3/ Tankan Large All Industry Capex Q3/ Consumer Confidence (September)

· Singapore URA Property Index QoQ Prel Q3/ SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (September)

· Sri Lanka Current Account Q2

· India M3 Money Supply (September/20)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen meetings with the President of Georgia, Ms. Salome Zourabichivili in Brussels. The EU and Georgia have experienced significant disruptions in relations. The EU has threatened to strip Georgians of visa-free access due to backsliding on democracy in the country, and it has frozen chances of Georgia joining the EU. Later in the day, von der Leyen will meet with British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer in an effort to “reset ties” between the UK and EU.

· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will host meetings with French President Emanual Macron in Berlin.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board member Luis de Guindos will give a speech at the Latvijas Banka's and SUERF Economic Conference, "Financing a Better Future: The Vital Role of Finance in Achieving Sustainable Growth" in Riga, Latvia. He will then participate on a panel entitled “From Riga to Brussels to Wall Street: Examining the Differences of Financial Architecture.”

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane will chair a policy panel at the 5th Joint Bank of Canada - ECB - Federal Reserve Bank of New York Conference on Expectations Surveys, Central Banks and the Economy in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will participate on a panel discussion "Banking for Prosperity: Towards Stronger and More Inclusive Growth Through Increased Integration and Competition" at Latvijas Banka's and SUERF Economic Conference "Financing a Better Future: The Vital Role of Finance in Achieving Sustainable Growth" in Riga, Latvia.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will participate in webinar organized by the Institute of International & European Affairs in Dublin, Ireland.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will give the Walter Eucken Lecture 2024 at the University of Freiburg in Freiburg, Germany.

· Romania PPI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

· Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (September)

· Spain Unemployment Change (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

· Euro Area Unemployment Rate (August)

· Italy Unemployment Rate (August)/ New Car Registrations (September)

· Ireland Unemployment Rate (September)

· Poland Interest Rate Decision (October)

· Russia Business Confidence (September)/ Real Wage Growth (July)/ Retail Sales (August)/ GDP (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Guinea, marking when the country gained its freedom from France in 1958.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Angola GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (September)

· South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales (September)

Thursday, October 3, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in hybrid "Featuring Frontier Research to Enhance Economic Opportunity and Inclusive Growth" 2024 Research Conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Later, Atlanta Federal Reserve Board President Raphael Bostic will participate via video.

· Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· USA Initial Jobless Claims (September/28)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (September)/ ISM Services PMI/ Business/ Employment/ New Orders/ Prices (September)/ Factory Orders (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September/27)/15 & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/02)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/2)/ Total Vehicle Sales (September)

· Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (September)

· Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (September)

· Uruguay Inflation Rate (September)

· Peru Inflation Rate (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Asahi Noguchi gives a speech to a meeting of local business leaders in Nagasaki, Japan.

· Australia Judo Bank Composite & Services PMI Final (September)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (September/28)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/28)/ Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMI Final (September)

· Singapore S&P Global PMI (September)

· Kazakhstan S&P Global Services PMI (September)

· Hong Kong Retail Sales (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Germany celebrates the Day of German Unity, celebrating the reunification of Germany. It is a public holiday, and financial markets and banks are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ireland AIB Services PMI (September)

· Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (September)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

· Switzerland Inflation Rate (September)

· France Budget Balance (August)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (September)

· Turkey Inflation Rate (September)/ PPI (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/27)/ Auto Production (September)/ Auto Sales (September)

· Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (September)

· Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (September)

· Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (September)

· Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (September)/ PPI (August)

· Great Britain S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Iraq Independence Day, marking when the country gained its independence from the UK in 1932.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (September)

· United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (September)

· Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (September)

· Qatar Financial Centre PMI (September)/ Balance of Trade (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt S&P Global PMI (September)

· Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (September)

· South Africa S&P Global PMI (September)

· Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (September)

· Ghana S&P Global PMI (September)

· Tanzania Interest Rate Decision

Friday, October 4, 2024

Global

· G7 Ministers meet in gender equity and women’s empowerment in Matera, Italy, through October 6.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to give opening remarks before the conference, "The Future of New York City: Focus on Jobs," at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

· Mexico Unemployment Rate (August)/ Auto Exports (September)/ Auto Production (September)

· USA Unemployment Rate (September)/ Participation Rate (September)/ Average Weekly Hours (September)/ Manufacturing & Government Payrolls (September)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (October/04)

· Canada Ivey PMI s.a (September)

· Brazil Balance of Trade (September)

· Ecuador Inflation Rate (September)

· El Salvador GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Colombia PPI (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Kazakhstan will host the regional ceremony of unveiling the Global Innovation Index 2024 Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (September)

· Philippines Inflation Rate (September)

· Australia Home Loans (August)/ Investment Lending for Homes (August)

· India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (September)/ Bank Loan Growth (September/20)/ Deposit Growth (September/20)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/27)

· Singapore Retail Sales (August)

· Thailand Business Confidence (September)

· Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Sri Lanka Unemployment Rate Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will give the speech at the 10th Anniversary International Financial Markets Conference organized by Lithuanian Central Bank in Vilnius, Lithuania.

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos will give remarks at the anniversary of Radio Intereconomía.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will give the keynote speech followed by panel participation at the Change in Leadership event by Sustainable Finance Lab in Utrecht, Netherlands.

· Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill will give a speech at the Institute of Chartered Accounts in England and Wales Annual Conference.

· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (September)

· Hungary Industrial Production (August)

· France Industrial Production (August)/ HCOB Construction PMI (September)

· Slovakia Retail Sales (August)

· Spain Industrial Production (August)

· Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (September)

· Germany HCOB Construction PMI (September)/ New Car Registrations (September)

· Italy HCOB Construction PMI (September)/ Retail Sales (August)

· Great Britain New Car Sales (September)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (September)

· Slovenia Balance of Trade (August)

· Serbia PPI (September)

· Romania Interest Rate Decision

· Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Prel (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Lesotho celebrates Independence Day, marking when the UK granted the nation its independence in 1966.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Kenya GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Saturday, October 5, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Vanuatu celebrates Constitution Day, celebrating when the nation’s constitution was signed in 1979, paving the way for its independence.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Portugal celebrates Republic Day, celebrating when Portugal’s monarchy was overthrown in 1910.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 6, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Brazil holds local elections, including for Mayor of Sao Paulo.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In Kazakhstan, a referendum on the construction of a nuclear power plant (NPP) will be held. Opinion polling indicates that the most likely scenario will be a vote in favor of constructing the plant. If approved, it will help Kazakhstan domestic electricity supply challenges and reduce its dependence on both fossil fuels and electricity imports from abroad.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· London is bracing for a large protest in support of Palestinians.

· Bosnia and Herzegovina will hold local elections.

· In Italy, Matteo Salvini's League holds annual meeting in Pontida.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Tunisia will hold a presidential election. President Kais Saied will almost certainly win as opposition parties are boycotting the election.

Fulcrum Perspectives

The U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

It’s World Bank/IMF Week in Washington, There Are Not One But Two Big Fintech Conferences This Week, And Pressure on FDIC Chair Gruenberg To Explain Himself Grows

October 21 - 25, 2024

The Global Week Ahead

The World Bank/IMF Annual Meetings Convenes in Washington – As Does the Annual BRICS Meeting in Russia, Important Elections Being Held in Eastern Europe, What Happens Next in the Middle East After Sinwar’s Death?

October 20 - 27, 2024

Recommended Weekend Reads

The Latin American Nations are Best Positioned for Nearshoring, How America’s Gender Gap is Reshaping the Election, and Macroeconomic Limits of China’s Africa Strategy

October 18 - 20, 2024

The Global Week Ahead

The Tense Wait for Israel’s Military Response to Iran’s Attack Continues, the European Council Gathers on Ukraine and Middle East Policy, Biden Goes to Germany, and the ECB Meets on Rates

October 13 - 20, 2024

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Recommended Weekend Reads

October 11 - 13, 2024

What to Watch For At The Upcoming BRICS+ Summit, China’s Dollar Dilemma, Time for A Containment Strategy for Venezuela, and How Protectionism is Failing as an Economic Strategy

The Global Week Ahead

The Sad Anniversary of Hamas’ Murderous Assault on Israel, Biden Travels to Germany and Angola, US Supreme Court Begins its Autumn Term, and Germany’s Foreign Minister to Travel to China

October 6 - 13, 2024

Sunday, October 6, 2024

Monday, October 7, 2024

Tuesday, October 8, 2024

Wednesday, October 9, 2024

Thursday, October 10, 2024

Friday, October 11, 2024

Saturday, October 12, 2024

Sunday, October 13, 2024

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Washington’s Financial Regulators Go Quiet A Month Before the Elections; Face-Off Between the Fed and the FDIC on Basel III, and Regulated Election Betting Starts Up

October 7 - 11, 2024

U.S. Congressional Hearings

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Recommended Weekend Reads

Big Changes Are Coming to Latin America, How Russia and China Evade Sanctions Together, and How Monetary Policy Impacts U.S. National Security

October 4 - 6, 2024

The Global Week Ahead

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