Recommended Weekend Reads

Our U.S. Election Special: Election Integrity, Who Your Neighbors Gave To, and How Economic Indicators Impact Votes. Plus, Why Europe is Unprepared to Defend Itself, and Mexico’s Economic Challenges

October 25 - 27, 2024

Please find below our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week.  We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

U.S. 2024 Elections

• “The Good, the Bad and the Ugly” of Election Integrity   The Hoover Institution Podcast

  Are battleground states better prepared this election cycle than in recent election cycles? Ben Ginsberg, the Hoover Institution’s Volker Distinguished Visiting Fellow and a preeminent authority on election law, examines whether battleground states are better prepared this election cycle than in recent election cycles. Ginsberg also explores possible legal challenges that might happen before, during, and after the vote count. 

• See How Your Neighborhood Is Giving to Trump and Harris  Washington Post

  Want to know which political campaigns your neighbor contributed to?  The Washington Post makes it easy: Enter your zip code and find out which campaign your neighbors gave money to!  In every state across the country, more people donated to Vice President Kamala Harris than to former President Donald Trump. Registered voters in the suburbs were about twice as likely to give to Harris as to Trump. A vast majority of Trump’s donors under 35 were men. And in the battleground state of Georgia, where Black voters make up one-third of the electorate, less than 4 percent of Trump donors were Black. Those are among the findings from a Washington Post analysis of online contributions to the Trump, Harris, and President Joe Biden campaigns, combined with voter registration data. There are outside groups that don’t have to disclose donors and that make up some of the spending for both Harris and Trump, so this is only a part of the funds backing the two candidates. The result is still a detailed snapshot, down to the Zip code level, of who clicked and tapped to send a few dollars to the leading candidates since Trump launched his campaign in November 2022.

•   How Do Electoral Votes, Presidential Approval, and Consumer Sentiment Respond to Economic Indicators?   National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper/Robert J. Gordon

  Abstract: This paper studies the effect of economic indicators on the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, Presidential approval ratings, and Presidential election outcomes since 1956. How closely do the indicators predict sentiment, how well does sentiment predict approval, and what role does approval have in explaining election outcomes measured by electoral votes? How much of the variance of approval ratings depends on non-economic factors like the “honeymoon effect”? Is there a role for economic indicators in explaining election outcomes once the contribution of approval ratings is taken into account? Regression equations provide answers to these questions and allow new interpretations of political history. Equation residuals and the contributions of specific variables are graphically displayed, providing insights into time intervals when sentiment was above or below the prediction of economic indicators, when approval differed from its usual relation with sentiment and the indicators, and when and why the electoral vote totals in each election since 1956 exceeded or fell short of the predictions of the econometric equations.
  

• As the U.S. elections nears, Russia, Iran, and China Step Up Influence Efforts  Microsoft Threat Analysis Center

  With two weeks until Election Day 2024, the Microsoft Threat Analysis Center (MTAC) observes sustained influence efforts by Russia, Iran, and China aimed at undermining U.S. democratic processes. Since our last two reports, the U.S. government has taken many actions revealing cyber and influence activity from foreign adversaries related to election 2024. Most recently, that includes revealing malicious Iranian cyber actors’ sending of “stolen, non-public material from former President Trump’s campaign” to both individuals then associated with President Biden’s campaign and U.S. media organizations, and the indictment of three Iranian actors for the hack-and-leak operation targeting the Trump-Vance campaign. 

Africa

• How Can African Countries Participate in U.S. Clean Energy Supply Chains?  Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  The combination of key mineral endowments in African countries and U.S. objectives to reorient clean energy supply chains away from competitors like China can serve as the foundation for a new economic and strategic relationship.

Europe

• Why Europe is Unprepared to Defend Itself   Bloomberg

  For decades, European NATO members curbed defense spending to fund other priorities. What remains, in the view of some US military experts, is a “Potemkin Army” that couldn’t stand up to an invader without American support.

• Is a UK rapprochement with the EU possible?  The Peterson Institute for International Economics

  A clear majority of Brits consider the decision to leave the EU a mistake. A You Gov poll from August this year shows 51 percent saying that the negatives of Brexit have outweighed the benefits; only 17 percent think the opposite.
  

• Macroeconomic implications of the recent surge of immigration to the EU   Francesca Caselli, Allan Gloe Dizioli, and Frederik Toscani/Center for Economic Policy Research

  This research piece discusses the macroeconomic implications of this immigration surge and suggests a positive effect on potential output in the range of 0.2-0.7% by 2030 for recipient countries. On the flip side, the large inflow had initial fiscal costs and likely led to some congestion for local public services, such as schooling. Future policy efforts should seek to continue to integrate immigrants into the Labour force while ensuring the supply of public services and amenities keeps up with the population increase.

Mexico 

• Forget the US Election, Mexico’s Real Economic Challenges Lie At Home   OMFIF

  As the world anxiously watches the unfolding US election, many analysts are speculating about its impact on Mexico’s economy. Will trade relations be upended? Will the peso come under pressure from political uncertainty? While these are valid concerns, the bigger story might not lie north of the border. Mexico’s real challenge stems from its domestic policies – a challenge that could shape the nation’s economic future more than any external events.

• A U.S. Reset with Mexico Is Still Possible  Shannon O’Neil/Foreign Affairs

  Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who was inaugurated on October 1, has come into office with more political power than any Mexican leader since the country’s transition away from single-party rule in the 1990s.  She received a record 35.9 million votes—nearly 60 percent of those cast for the top office—and effectively controls a two-thirds supermajority in Congress. Her party, Morena, governs 22 of the country’s 31 states. Yet economic headwinds will temper this political gift, as expectations for fast and meaningful action on wage increases, a greener energy grid, expanded public benefits, and other issues will likely outpace Sheinbaum’s ability to deliver.  No matter who enters the White House in January, there is an opportunity—albeit a narrow one—for a reset with Mexico, one that could make both countries safer and more prosperous rather than beset with crises and consistently at odds with each other.

• How Does Debt Affect Ecuador-China Relations?   Latin American Advisors

  Ecuador’s minister of economy and finance, Juan Carlos Vega, met with his Chinese counterpart, Lan Fo’an, in Beijing on Sept. 23 for talks about bilateral cooperation and economic relations. The discussion included Ecuador’s debt to China, which is close to $3 billion, in addition to Ecuador’s energy problems, some of which stem from flaws in Chinese-built energy infrastructure projects that have come to light in recent years. How does Ecuador’s debt influence its relationship to China? How does it complicate President Daniel Noboa’s attempts to improve the country’s fiscal situation? What leverage does Ecuador have in pressing China to address the flaws in its energy infrastructure?