U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Washington Goes Quiet in Advance of the November Elections, the FDIC Is Going to Take A Look At Credit Union Acquisitions of Community Banks, and FDIC Chair Gruenberg Is Still There And Will be Well into 2025

September 30 - October 4, 2024

With Congress passing a stop-gap funding bill keeping the federal government running until late December and the elections a little over a month away, Washington got very quiet at the end of the week. Congress is a ghost town again, now until after the election. In the coming week, regulators are taking advantage of the change in tempo and also not to do much publicly. 

Probably the three biggest events this coming week are a fireside chat FDIC Vice Chair Travis Hill is doing at the Women in Housing and Finance event. All ears will be open—especially among the community bank community—as reports circulated last week that the FDIC is going to take a closer look at credit unions buying up community banks, something that reached an all-time record high this year.

The second event of note is Fed Governor Lisa Cook's speech in Atlanta on Tuesday entitled "AI, Big Data, and the path ahead for Productivity." Her speech will be at a conference entitled "AI, Big Data, and the Path Ahead for Productivity" at the Conference on "Technology-Enabled Disruption: Implications of AI, Big Data, and Remote Work." So, it's safe to say her remarks will touch every sector, from banking to manufacturing to big tech.

Finally, the Treasury Department will hold a virtual meeting of its Financial Research Advisory Committee to examine technology vulnerabilities in the financial sector, AI, and central counterparties and a demonstration of new hedge fund monitoring systems.

Looking at what happened last week of note, the Senate Banking Committee canceled its hearing with SEC Chair Gary Gensler at the last minute. Senate Banking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown (D-OH) said it was because of numerous scheduling issues. But Brown also failed to hold a vote on FDIC Chair nominee Christi Goldsmith Romano. This means a committee vote will not happen until late November – if ever. This means FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg will continue to sit in the chair despite his role in the scandals there until at least February, if not longer. Everyone knew this was going to happen when Romano was nominated – the White House. Chair Brown. Everyone.  But here we are.

Finally, it should be noted the Treasury Market Conference held at the New York Fed happened and while there were few headline speeches, Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr once again spoke of his efforts to finalize bank capital rules as well as to finding a way to make it normal for banks to access the Fed discount window and not be seen as potentially troubled publicly. We will be interested in seeing how this plays out.

Below is a listing of all the other significant regulatory-related events this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

U.S. Senate

· The Senate is in a Pro Forma session and is not returning to work until after the election. No work and no hearings are scheduled.  They will return to work on November 12.

House of Representatives

·       The House is out of session until after the November elections.  No business or hearings are scheduled.  They will return to work on November 12.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

·       Monday, September 30, 8:50 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” at the Georgia Bankers Association President/CEO Conference, Charleston, South Carolina.

·       Monday, September 30, 1:55 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives a speech on the economic outlook at the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Annual Meeting in Nashville, Tennessee.

·       Tuesday, October 1, 11:10 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech entitled “AI, Big Data, and the Path Ahead for Productivity” at the Conference on “Technology-Enabled Disruption: Implications of AI, Big Data, and Remote Work," Atlanta, Georgia.

·       Wednesday, October 2, 11:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Building the Community Banking Framework for the Future” at the 2024 Community Banking Research Conference, St. Louis, Missouri.

U.S. Treasury Department

·       Tuesday, October 1, 10:00 a.m. – The Treasury Department holds a virtual meeting of the Financial Research Advisory Committee.  The agenda includes: Technology vulnerabilities; Cybersecurity; Artificial intelligence; Central counterparties; Hedge fund monitor demonstration; and Update from the Office of Financial Research Data Center.

Department of Commerce

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

·       Monday, September 30, 10:00 a.m. – The American Bankers Association's Economic Advisory Committee holds a news conference to present the latest consensus economic forecast.

Think Tanks and Other Events

·       Monday, September 30, 12:00 p.m. – The Women in Housing and Finance will host a fireside chat with FDIC Vice Chair Travis Hill in Washington, D.C.

·       Monday, September 30, 3:00 p.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 3 p.m., on "Price Stability in an Age of Emergencies: Revisiting the Case for Buffer Stocks."

·       Tuesday, October 1, 9:00 a.m. – The Center for Global Development holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 9 a.m., on "Why and How the MDB (Multilateral Development Banks) Capital Adequacy Framework Report Had Impact.

·       Thursday, October 3, 6:00 p.m. – The American Bar Association and the National Asian Pacific American Law Student Association holds a discussion on "2024 Why Antitrust?"

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reads

How Will the U.S. Election Impact the Rest of the World? The BRICS’ Growing Power and Influence and the Geopolitics of Port Security in the Americas

September 27 - 29, 2024

Please find below our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week.  We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

Geopolitics & the U.S. Elections

• The Global Impact of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Elections  Center for Strategic and International Studies

  The audience for the U.S. presidential election is global and has a global impact. The election takes place at a moment when the demands of two wars in Europe and the Middle East, China’s assertiveness, and coalitions of autocratic leaders are putting unprecedented stress on the rules-based international order. These developments, as much as the election, are compelling changes in how global leaders look at their future with the United States regardless of signals of policy continuity or discontinuity from a Harris or Trump presidency. This report provides concise analysis and predictions covering the globe.

• Why US-China ties will worsen regardless of the US vote    Matt Gertken/Hinrich Foundation

  BCA Research’s Chief Strategist Matt Gertken argues the upcoming US elections will not determine the course of US-China relations.  Regardless of which party wins the elections, the superpower rivalry is set to deepen as national and economic security competition intensifies. Both Washington and Beijing are doubling down on antagonism, and trade ties will worsen in the foreseeable future.

The Growing Influence of the BRICS

• BRICS Considering Petro-Yuan in next de-dollarization attempt  OMFIF

  Unlike the BRICS Summit in Johannesburg in 2023, which was waved off by Western observers as no real threat to the dollar, October’s summit in Kazan, Russia, is set to be ground-breaking for two reasons. First, there have been major changes since the last summit. BRICS – comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – has been expanded by five important new members: Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iran, Egypt and Ethiopia. Saudi Arabia, the world’s main supplier of petrol, has also joined Project mBridge, the Bank for International Settlements’ digital currency arrangement. The country has made comments about considering alternatives to the present dollar-based oil payments system and being open to using the Petro-Yuan for oil settlements.  Second, there is Russia, a country at war with Ukraine and engaging in economic conflict against the whole Western alliance. It will use the Kazan summit as a means to push BRICS members to join this endeavor. Russia is planning a new denomination for oil, – the Petro-Yuan – its own mBridge system to pay for oil and even a common BRICS currency to reduce dependence on the dollar.

• The Battle for the BRICS: Why the Future of the Bloc Will Shape Global Order   Foreign Affairs

  In late October, the group of countries known as the BRICS will convene in the Russian city of Kazan for its annual summit. The meeting is set to be a moment of triumph for its host, Russian President Vladimir Putin, who will preside over this gathering of an increasingly hefty bloc even as he prosecutes his brutal war in Ukraine. The group’s acronym comes from its first five members—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—but it has now grown to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia also participates in the group’s activities, but it has not formally joined. Together, these ten countries represent 35.6 percent of global GDP in purchasing power parity terms (more than the G-7’s 30.3 percent) and 45 percent of the world’s population (the G-7 represents less than ten percent). In the coming years, BRICS is likely to expand further, with more than 40 countries expressing interest in joining, including emerging powers such as Indonesia.

  As the United States and its allies are less able to unilaterally shape the global order, many countries are seeking to boost their own autonomy by courting alternative centers of power. Unable or unwilling to join the exclusive clubs of the United States and its junior partners, such as the G-7 or U.S.-led military blocs, and increasingly frustrated by the global financial institutions underpinned by the United States, such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, these countries are keen to expand their options and establish ties with non-American initiatives and organizations. BRICS stands out among such initiatives as the most significant, relevant, and potentially influential.

• Expansion of BRICS: A quest for greater global influence?   European Parliament Think Tank

  The official Think Tank of the European Parliament explains who the new members of the BRICS are and what this means. The BRICS decision to open the door to new members was taken at its Johannesburg summit in August 2023, sparking a debate about its growing international influence. According to estimates, BRICS+, as the organization has been informally called since its expansion, now accounts for 37.3 % of world GDP, or more than half as much as the EU (14.5 %). However, besides an increase in economic power the new members could bring potential conflicts (Saudi Arabia/Iran or Egypt/Ethiopia) into the group, making the reaching of consensus on common political positions more difficult. Since the new members would only contribute roughly 4 % to the group's cumulative GDP, the significance of the expansion should be seen beyond the purely economic effect, in the form of greater influence for the group and for developing countries as a whole within international organizations such as the United Nations, the World Trade Organization and the Bretton Woods institutions.

• The Battle for the BRICS: Why the Future of the Bloc Will Shape Global Order   Foreign Affairs

  In late October, the group of countries known as the BRICS will convene in the Russian city of Kazan for its annual summit. The meeting is set to be a moment of triumph for its host, Russian President Vladimir Putin, who will preside over this gathering of an increasingly hefty bloc even as he prosecutes his brutal war in Ukraine. The group’s acronym comes from its first five members—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—but it has now grown to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia also participates in the group’s activities, but it has not formally joined. Together, these ten countries represent 35.6 percent of global GDP in purchasing power parity terms (more than the G-7’s 30.3 percent) and 45 percent of the world’s population (the G-7 represents less than ten percent). In the coming years, BRICS is likely to expand further, with more than 40 countries expressing interest in joining, including emerging powers such as Indonesia.

Latin America

• Claudia Sheinbaum and the Shadow of AMLO   Americas Quarterly Podcast

  Claudia Sheinbaum will take office as Mexico’s new president next week, on October 1, 2024. Often described as a technocrat, she also supports some of current President AMLO’s more controversial policies, such as the judicial reform that was just approved. In this episode, Vanessa Rubio, a professor at the London School of Economics and a former senator and deputy minister, shares what she expects from Sheinbaum’s government. Rubio argues her administration will take shape as a new blend—one that could be deemed “techno-populist.”

• The Geopolitics of Port Security in the Americas Center for Strategic and International Studies Americas Program

  “[T]he truth of the matter is that the People’s Republic of China is rapidly filling the vacuum created by the departure of American military forces from the isthmus [of Panama]. . . .Their presence adds to the danger of using the Colon Free Zone to purchase restricted technology with dual civilian-military use.” This sentiment would not seem out of place in a contemporary discussion of Chinese strategic advances in the Western Hemisphere. It is, in fact, more than two decades old, coming from the testimony of Dr. Tomas Cabal, then professor of business at the University of Panama, who appeared before the U.S. House Subcommittee on Domestic and International Monetary Policy on December 7, 1999.

Alternative Energy

• New Battery Designs Could Lead to Gains in Power and Capacity   The Economist

  In their quest to build a better battery, researchers have blazed a trail through the elements of the periodic table. The earliest prototype cells ran on nickel and cadmium; successors have used everything from zinc and iron to sodium and lead. Instead of the other long-overshadowed components of cells. Those efforts are starting to pay off and several companies are looking to further radically improve the battery as we know it.

DWS Insurance Asset Management Conference

Charleston, South Carolina - September 23, 2024

I was delighted to have the opportunity to address this gathering of CEOs and Chief Investment Officers of some of the biggest insurance firms globally. It was a fantastic conversation about the multiple geopolitical challenges today and the many implications of the U.S. elections on the markets. Will Harris win, or will Trump pull off a come-back? Which party will control the Senate, and is there a real chance that the filibuster will be removed if Democrats sweep the White House, House of Representatives, and Senate? What does this mean for tax policy? Health care policy? And where are we going on with the U.S.-China policy, and what exactly is going on inside China today economically, socially, and politically? We covered all of this and much more. Thank you for having me, DWS! You can see my full presentation HERE or via the link below.

Book Review:

A Quiet Company of Dangerous Men: The Forgotten British Special Operations Soldiers of World War II

By Shannon Monaghan, Viking Press, 2024 (400 pages)

Fortunately, there are many riveting books about the daring raids of the British Special Air Service (SAS) “Desert Rats” during World War II. Indeed, there is a wonderful show about them on BBC, “Rogue Heroes.” Their insanely heroic attacks on German Field Marshall Erwin Rommel’s Afrika Corps hundreds of miles behind enemy lines are almost beyond belief in their audacity and impact on the war.

But they were not the only ones. Less well known, until now, are four men who brought the fight to the Nazis in Albania, tying down hundreds of thousands of German troops from being dispatched to either the Western or Eastern Front to fight allied forces. Moreover, the end of World War II was not the end of their war against totalitarianism, as they marched off to Vietnam, Oman, Yemen, and elsewhere to fight “the good fight.” Their wars and lives are dazzlingly reported in “A Quiet Company of Dangerous Men” by Shannon Monaghan.

Billy McLean, David Smiley, Peter Kemp, and Julian Amery were boundless in their efforts to defeat the Nazis but also dealt with rising communist threats in Albania and Yugoslavia. Of particular challenge to them was trying to get the ruthless communist partisan leader (and future dictator of Albania) Enver Hoxha actually to fight the Nazis (he often claimed his partisans fought in this or that battle, but the truth is a combination of cowardice on Hoxha’s part and determination to save as much ammunition and men for later fights with non-marxist partisans kept them out of the battle). Moreover, as the four British heroes were increasingly successful on the battlefield, they suddenly discovered someone was selling them out to the Germans: Hoxha was tipping off the Germans, hoping the Brits would be killed off and he could step in as the leader.

However, there was another traitor to the cause of fighting the Nazis in Albania, and, of all people, he was back in Special Operation Executive (SOE) helping to oversee the entire operation: James Klugmann, the senior British Army officer overseeing all activities in Yugoslavia. Klugmann was a traitor, a Soviet agent who had been recruited at Cambridge in 1936 and was a friend and contemporary of the other infamous Cambridge spies, better known as the Cambridge Five: Kim Philby, Donald MacLean, Guy Burgess, and Anthony Blunt. Klugmann was taking his orders from the NKVD and Stalin, and his mission was to ensure Communist partisan Josef Broz Tito (and his toadie in Albania, Hoxha) were put in the best light while the Yugoslav royalists were falsely accused of cowardice and ineptitude. Klugmann’s fraudulent memos and analysis impacted the future of both Yugoslavia and Albania, as Churchill and other leaders read what he reported. But on the ground, he tried to get the four Brits killed numerous times. Klugmann was a committed Stalinist but somehow constantly escaped being nailed as a spy despite multiple investigations.

Eventually, the Fantastic Four were pulled from Albania despite their successes (and numerous wounds and near captures). They would all end up going to India to prepare to fight the Japanese, taking part in dangerous reconnaissance missions and helping to liberate Allied POWs. Billy MacLean and Julian Amery went on to serve in the British Parliament - but when danger called, they both went back to helping fight authoritarianism - including returning to Albania to serve in a joint British-US covert effort to throw Hoxha out of power.

Peter Berg was a witness to the rise of the Vietnamese Communist movement - the Viet Minh who were hunting French colonials down and murdering them, although defeated Japanese forces had not even left Vietnam yet.

This is a rollicking, fun read—and it is also an important one in that we cannot forget the efforts and successes of brave men like McLean, Kemp, Smiley, and Amery. Our world needs men like these again to step up and fight against the forces of darkness that are growing around the world.

The Global Week Ahead

World Leaders Gather at UN General Assembly Week in New York, Japan Selects a New Prime Minister, Bracing for Israeli-Hezbollah Escalation, and Waiting For A Flood of Fed Governor Speeches

September 22 - 29, 2024

This coming week is going to be an exceptionally busy one on the geopolitical front.  The United Nations 79th General Assembly is this week, and leaders from around the world are gathering to give speeches before the Assembly and hold side meetings with other leaders.  Of note, we will be watching closely Iran's new President Masoud Pezeshkian's speech for not only what he says about the current escalation of fighting between Israel's and Iran's proxy militia, Hezbollah.  But also, press reports suggest Pezeshkian may suggest an avenue to restarting stalled talks on limiting Iran's nuclear program. 

As we write this update, there has been a significant escalation of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah following Israel’s stunning exploding pager operation last week, killing or wounding more than 3,000 Hezbollah operatives.  The question now is does this move into a full-out war (which seems most likely) or is there some remote chance of a diplomatic solution.

Also of note this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will speak to the Assembly and then travel to Washington to meet with President Biden, Vice President Harris, and House and Senate leadership about additional military assistance.

As all this is happening, Japan's Liberal Democracy Party will vote on a new leader—who will then become the new Prime Minister of Japan—as incumbent LDP President and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is not running for re-election and is standing down in the wake of low approval polls and a controversy over a slush fund scandal.

Turning to US politics, The House and Senate are expected to vote this week on a Continuing Resolution (CR) to keep the federal government running through December 20th.   The bill will likely face widespread House Republican opposition but still pass with just enough Republicans voting in favor, along with almost the entire House Democratic Caucus.  As this is going on, the House Foreign Affairs Committee is going to hold a hearing with Secretary of State Antony Blinken to review the chaotic withdrawal of US Forces from Afghanistan.  The Committee issued a scathing report recently, strongly criticizing how the withdrawal was conducted.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, we are struck by the large number of speeches Federal Reserve Board Governors are giving: ten, of which seven are being given on Thursday.  That is a lot for markets to digest, along with a busy US economic report calendar that includes US PCE readings, flash US CPI numbers, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index, and durable goods orders.

Turning to Europe, the European Central Bank, France, Germany, and Italy release their consumer expectation surveys.  In Asia, Japan releases the Tokyo CPI report and flash PMIs.  The Reserve Bank of Australia meets to decide interest rates.

Here is what else we are tracking in this hectic week ahead:

Sunday, September 22, 2024

Global

·       The opening segment of the Summit of the Future will take place at the General Assembly Hall. The UN Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks, as well as the President of the 79th Session of the General Assembly, Philemon Yang. The Summit of the Future will continue until September 23.  

·       The UN’s the COP29 Presidency and the International Organization for Migration (IOM) are co-organizing a High-Level Roundtable on Climate, Peace and Human Mobility.

·       Today is the Fall Equinox.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will address the Indian diaspora at the "Modi & US Progress Together" event at Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum in Long Island, New York. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Thailand New Car Sales (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Germany, the state of Brandenburg holds state elections.

·       Switzerland holds a referendum vote on initiative to strengthen biodiversity protection.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today in South Sudan is the deadline for the dissolution of the transitional unity government ahead of possible December elections.

·       Today is Mali Independence Day, celebrating when the country gained its independence from France in 1960.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 23, 2024

Global

·      The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) holds board meetings in Vienna, Austria. They are expected to be given an update on Iran’s nuclear weapons program, North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, and the situation around security and safeguards around Ukraine’s nuclear power facility, which has been the center of heavy fighting.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Joe Biden hosts UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan for talks on Gaza and Sudan.  This is the first state visit by a sitting UAE President.  He will also meet with Vice President Kamala Harris during his visit along with a large group of US businessmen.

·       The Argentine Congress is expected to begin debating the 2025 fiscal budget.  President Javier Milei has pledged to substantially reduce the federal deficit via austerity measures in the package.

·       The Clinton Foundation holds its annual Clinton Global Initiative in New York.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to speak virtually on the economic outlook before the Distinguished Speakers Seminar convened by the European Economics and Financial Centre at the University of London.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in moderated question-and-answer session before the Greater Kansas City Chamber of Commerce Leadership Exchange 2024.

·       Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Mexico Economic Activity (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (August)/ S&P Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (September)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (August)

·       Paraguay PPI (August)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan's main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, will hold a leadership election.  Whomever wins is the likely next Prime Minister.

·       South Korea will host the 25th Korea-U.S. Integrated Defense Dialogue in Seoul.

·       Filipino unionized transport workers will stage a nationwide work stoppage through September 24.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japanese financial markets are closed to celebrate the Autum Equinox Day.

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (September)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (August)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (August)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (September)

·       Philippines Business & Consumer Confidence Q3

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·        Italy will host the second Libya Energy and Economy Summit in Rome. 

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers are going to discuss the upcoming EU-UK annual consultation on fishing opportunities for 2025 as well as the EU-Norway and coastal states annual consultations for the coming year.

·       The EU General Affairs Council will meet in Brussels.  Ministers will hear the Hungarian presidency will present the priorities for its term of office. Ministers will have an opportunity to present their comments.  They will also hold a horizontal discussion on the rule of law situation in the EU member states. Separately, ministers will also exchange views on the general trend of the rule of law situation in selected candidate countries. Both discussions will make use of the Commission’s 2024 rule of law report, which this year covers, for the first time, also developments in Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia. 

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen delivers a keynote address at the Association of Small Islands States Leaders Meeting in New York.

·       Armenia's Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan will travel to the Netherlands and Brussels, Belgium, on a working visit. 

·       Paris Fashion Week begins. Maybe Derek Zoolander will be there, too.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone will give an introductory statement at a hearing on the digital euro before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.  Later, he will participate on a panel discussion at a roundtable on the digital euro at the House of the Euro in Brussels.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives opening remarks at the summit on Real estate climate data industry good practices organized by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Hungary Gross Wage (July)

·       Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (September)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (September)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (September)

·       Poland Retail Sales (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August)

·       Great Britain S&P Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (September)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (September)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (August)

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Saudi Arabia celebrates National Day.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (July)/ Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (August)/ M2 Money Supply (August)/ Private Bank Lending (August)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (August)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (July)

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (August)/ Total Credit Growth (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

·       Oman M2 Money Supply (July)/ Total Credit (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (August)

Tuesday, September 24, 2024

Global

·       The UN’s General Assembly’s General Debate of the 79th session officially begins.  The theme for the 79th session is “"Leaving no one behind: acting together for the advancement of peace, sustainable development and human dignity for present and future generations.” The Secretary-General will address this session of the General Debate. The Speakers list will be available in the UN Journal. 

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The House Foreign Affairs Committee holds a hearing on "An Assessment of the State Department's Withdrawal from Afghanistan by America's Top Diplomat."  US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will testify.  The Committee recently issued a scathing report on how the withdrawal was conducted and President Biden’s role.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech at the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy at the Kentucky Bankers Association Annual Convention.

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will participate in a fireside chat at the Institute for International Finance Canada Forum 2024 in Toronto.

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ FGV Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Chile PPI (August)

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (September)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales MoM Prel (August)

·       USA Redbook (September/21)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (July)/ House Price Index (July)/ CB Consumer Confidence (September)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (September)/ Money Supply (August)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/20)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       ASEAN Defense Senior Officials meet in Vientian.

·       ASEAN Energy Ministers meet in Vientian.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda gives a speech to business leaders in Osaka, Japan. 

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (September)/ BOJ Gov Ueda Speech

·       South Korea PPI (August)

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (July)/ Leading Index (July)

·       Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Interest Rate Decision/ RBA Press Conference

·       Taiwan Export Orders (August)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen co-hosts an event on carbon-pricing, together with Justin Trudeau, Prime Minister of Canada in New York.  She will also deliver opening remarks at the Global Renewables Summit in New York.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives the opening speech at the European Confederation of Institutes of International Accounting (ECIIA) Banking Forum 2024 "AI and IA: Responding to the Digital Journey in Banking".

·       Bankca d’Italia/G7  jointly hold a workshop entitled “Building a quantum safe financial system: what role for authorities and for the private sector?” in Rome.

·       Turkey Business Confidence (September)/ Capacity Utilization (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate/ Current Conditions/ Expectations (September)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (September)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (September)/ Inflation Report/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Riyadh, Saudi Arabia will host the Smart Cities Saudi Conference.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Guinea-Bissau celebrates its 51st Independence Day, marking when Portugal gave the country it’s freedom.

·       South African markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, September 25, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Maintenance of International Peace and Security: Leadership for Peace. The Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks. 

·       At the UN, the 2nd Foreign Ministers meeting of G20 Brazil 2024 on the theme "Building a just world and a sustainable planet" will take place at the ECOSOC Chamber. The Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks.

·       The UN holds a high-level meeting on rising sea levels.

·       The OECD presents its Interim Economic Outlook.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US House of Representative’s Speaker of the House Michael Johnson (R-LA) is expected to present a stop-gap spending bill that will continue US government funding through December 20.  A deal was reached over the weekend with the Senate over the weekend.  A large number of House Republicans are expected to vote against it – which will complicate Speaker Johnson’s future as Speaker.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech on the Economic Outlook at the Harvard Kennedy School, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

·       USA MBA Purchase Index (September/20)/ New Home Sales (August)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (September/20)/ Building Permits Final (August)

·       Brazil Current Account (August)/ Foreign Direct Investment (August)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (September)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnam's President and ruling Communist Party chief To Lam will visit Cuba through September 26 and meet with Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel. 

·       The Indian region of Jammu and Kashmir will begin its second phase of voting for assembly elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (August)/ RBA Chart Pack

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (August)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Parliament is expected to vote on raising tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank’s Governing Council holds a non-monetary policy meeting (virtual).

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in roundtable at European Banking Chief Compliance Officer Network (EBCCON) Plenary Meeting 2024 (virtual).

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Megan Greene gives a speech at the Chambers of Commerce in Newcastle on Consumption.

·       Hungary Current Account Q2

·       France Consumer Confidence (September)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (August)/ Jobseekers Total (August)

·       Spain PPI (August)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (September)

·       Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/ ECB McCaul Speech

·       Russia Corporate Profits (July)/ Industrial Production (August)

·       Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Abu Dhabi will host Global Aerospace Summit.  The focus of the meeting will be on investment and global trade in the industry.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (July)

Thursday, September 26, 2024 

Global

·       G7 Agriculture Ministers will meet in Syracuse, Italy through September 28.

·       The World Bank/IFS/ODI Finance Conference begins in Washington, D.C.

·       BRICS Foreign Ministers meet in New York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.

·       BRICS Energy Ministers meet in Moscow.

·       The BRICS Digital Forum is held in Innopolis, Republic of Tatarstan.

·       The BRICS Science, Technology and Innovation Ministerial meeting will be held in Moscow.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will meet with U.S. President Joe Biden and separately with Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris at the White House in Washington, D.C.

·       El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele will make an official visit to Argentina. The meetings come after the two nations signed a security agreement in June.

·       Ecuador will host the Women Economic Forum in Quito through September 28.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler participates in a Fireside chat on Financial Inclusion with President Susan M. Collins, co-hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston and Minneapolis and the Federal Reserve Board (virtual)

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman participates in a discussion on the “Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” at the Mid-size Bank Coalition of America Board of Directors Workshop.

·       The Federal Reserve Bank of New York holds its 2024 U.S. Treasury Market Conference.  Scheduled speakers include: Brian Smith, deputy assistant Treasury secretary for federal finance, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen, and SEC Chair Gary Gensler.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook participates in a roundtable discussion entitled “Artificial Intelligence and Workforce Development” at the Roundtable Discussion with Community Stakeholders, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and Columbus State Community College, Columbus, Ohio.

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr participates in a fireside chat on financial inclusion with Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari, co-hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston and Minneapolis and the Federal Reserve Board (virtual).

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech on Artificial Intelligence and the Labor Force at the Ohio State University President and Provost’s Diversity Lecture and Cultural Arts Series, Columbus, Ohio.

·       Brazil PPI (August)/ Net Payrolls (August)

·       Canada Average Weekly Earnings (July)/ Wholesale Sales Prel (August)

·       USA GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/21)/ PCE Prices Final Q2/ Pending Home Sales (August)/ Fed Barr Speech/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September/20)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing & Composite Index (September)/ 15 & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/25)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/25)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (August)

·       Mexico Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Collective Security Treaty Organization exercises called "Indestructible Brotherhood - 2024" will commence in Kazakhstan.

·       The editors of Hong Kong media outlet Stand News face sentencing after being convicted of sedition last month under a colonial-era law. The maximum penalty in the case would be two years in prison.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Foreign Bond Investment (September/21)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/21)

·       Australia RBA Financial Stability Review

·       Malaysia PPI (August)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (August)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Pope Francis commences a four-day visit to Luxembourg and Belgium.

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal Market and Industry) will meet in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss the future of European competitiveness and how to tackle the challenges facing industry and businesses in the single market. The policy debate follows discussions on the issue at the European Council meeting of 17-18 April 2024, and the Competitiveness Council on 24 May, along with the presentation of former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s report on 9 September.

·       European Parliament members and political groups will present their nominations for the 2024 Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought, the highest tribute paid by the EU in the field of human rights, at a joint meeting of the Foreign Affairs Committee, Human Rights Subcommittee, and Development Committee. The vote on the three finalists will take place in October.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank’s General Council holds a meeting (virtual).

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give the welcoming address at the 8th annual ESRB conference "New Frontiers in Macroprudential Policy" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives the opening remarks at the stakeholder meeting about the ECB Guide on Governance & Risk Culture in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul will chair a panel discussion at stakeholder meeting about the ECB Guide on Governance & Risk Culture in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will give the keynote speech at the 8th annual ESRB conference "New Frontiers in Macroprudential Policy" in Frankfurt, Germany. European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will give remarks at the Wirtschaftsrat der CDU e.V. in Stuttgart, Germany.

§  Shoib Khan, director of insurance supervision at the Bank of England’s Prudential Regulation Authority, speaks at the 29th Bank of America Financials CEO conference

§  The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority holds its annual public meeting.

·       Great Britain Car Production (August)

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence OCT

·       Euro Area ECB General Council Meeting/ ECB Economic Bulletin/ Loans to Companies & Households (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August)

·       Span Retail Sales (August)

·       Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision

·       Italy Business & Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Greece Total Credit (August)

·       Turkey MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/20)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (August)

Friday, September 27, 2024

Global

·       G7 Energy Ministers will meet in Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil.

·       The Group of 77 (G77) Foreign Ministers will meet in New York.

·       The BRICS Communications Ministers meeting will take place in Innopolis, Republic of Tatarstan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Higher U.S. tariffs on imported Chinese electric vehicles will go into effect.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman participates in a conversation at the Alabama Bankers Association Bank CEO Meeting, Birmingham, Alabama.

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (September)/ Bank Lending (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (September)/ GDP (July)/ Budget Balance (July)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (August)

·       USA Core PCE Price Index (August)/ Personal Income & Spending (August)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (August)/ PCE Price Index (August)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (September)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/27)

·       Costa Rica GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Current Account Q2

·       Paraguay GDP Growth Rate Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Argentina Current Account Q2

·       Panama Current Account Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Turkmenistan Independence Day, celebrating when the country gained its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (September)

·       South Korea Business Confidence (September)

·       Japan Tokyo CPI (September)/ Coincident Index Final (July)/ Leading Economic Index Final (July)

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (August)

·       Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (August)

·       Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (September)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/20)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Czech Republic holds the second round of Senate elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane will give the opening remarks at a conference on "Fiscal Policy, Financial Sector Policy and Economic Growth" in Dublin, Ireland.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone will give the keynote speech at the "Economics of Payments XIII" conference organized by the Oesterreichische Nationalbank in Vienna, Austria.

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (August)

·       France Inflation Rate Prel (September)/ PPI (August)

·       Slovakia Business & Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Spain Inflation Rate Prel (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ Business Confidence (September)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (August)/ Economic Confidence Index (September)

·       Germany Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Italy Industrial Sales (July)/ PPI (August)

·       Euro Area ECB Lane Speech/ Economic & Industrial Sentiment (September)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)/ Selling Price Expectations (September)/ Services Sentiment (September)/ ECB Cipollone Speech

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (August)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (August)

·       Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (September)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (August)

Saturday, September 28, 2024

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the 10th anniversary of the Umbrella Movement, the mass protests in Hong Kong over election rights and the ability of city citizens to pick their own local leadership.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 29, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Austria holds Parliamentary elections. 183 seats of the National Council and lower house of parliament are up.  The far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) currently is polling at 26%, and the center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) led by incumbent Chancellor Karl Nehammer with 25%. The Social Democratic Party (SPÖ) is close behind with 21% (which means no single party will likely secure a majority, forcing a coalition government).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (August)/ Private Bank Lending (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Get Ready for the Fed Governor Speech-A-Palooza, SEC Chair Gensler Defends His Agenda on the Hill This Week, and the Fed Holds Its Annual U.S. Treasury Market Conference

September 23 - 27, 2024

What is Fed Governor Speech-A-Palooza, you ask?  It is when Federal Reserve Board Governors give seven separate speeches in a single day – this coming Thursday.  Considering there are only seven Fed Governors in total, that is a lot.  The Governors collectively will cover a wide range of issues: financial inclusion, the state of the U.S. Treasury markets, Artificial Intelligence and the workforce, the economic outlook, and monetary policy.  Only Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and Governor Christopher Waller are not scheduled to give a public speech. For the whole week, they give a total of ten speeches or talks.  Whew!

Of note, this coming week, the Fed is holding its annual U.S. Treasury Market Conference at the New York Federal Reserve. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and SEC Chair Gary Gensler will speak with Fed Chair Jay Powell and Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr.

Chair Gensler has a busy week ahead.  He is also testifying before both the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee for the annual oversight hearings of the SEC.   Watch for House and Senate Republicans to strongly challenge Gensler on his views of crypto regulation and hiring practices at the agency.

Looking at the past week, there are several items of note. Fed Chair Jay Powell spoke of the troubled regulatory effort to develop new capital standards. He promised that the regulator would "move as a group" to develop a new proposal—despite the draft not being completely finished, as the Fed, FDIC, and OCC are at significant odds on final details.

Also last week, the FDIC, the OCC, and the Justice Department finalized new rules that will give the agencies more power to scrutinize bank mergers – yet another chilling effect put into effect to bank mergers overall.  The rules result from President Biden's executive order in 2021 calling for "revitalized merger oversight."

Finally, the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) held an unannounced meeting on Friday morning.  The Council was given an update from Treasury staff on key themes in an upcoming staff progress report by the Inter-Agency Working Group on Treasury Market Surveillance. They also received an update from the Council's Climate-related Financial Risk Committee on progress over the last year on the development of risk indicators and narrative analyses to monitor climate-related financial risks.  And they also voted to approve its fiscal year 2025 budget (a total of $14,783,781). 

Below is a listing of all the other significant regulatory-related events this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

·       Tuesday, September 24, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Agriculture Committee will hold a hearing on the nominations of Marcus D. Graham to be a member of the Farm Credit Administration Board, Farm Credit Administration; and Julie Brinn Siegel to be a commissioner of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

·       Wednesday, September 25, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee holds a hearing on "Oversight of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission."  SEC Chair Gary Gensler will testify.

·       Wednesday, September 25, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Budget Committee holds a hearing on "The Costs of Inaction: Economic Risks from Housing Unaffordability."

House of Representatives

·       Tuesday, September 24, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing on "Oversight of the Securities and Exchange Commission."  SEC Chair Gary Gensler will testify.

·       Wednesday, September 25, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Financial Institutions and Monetary Policy Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Regulatory Recipe for Economic Uncertainty: The Endless Basel Endgame and an Onslaught of Hurried Rulemaking Undertaken by the Administration."

·       Thursday, September 26, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Housing and Insurance Subcommittee will hold a hearing entitled “Vanishing Independence: How FHFA’s Political Agenda Endangers Homeowners and Taxpayers.”

US Regulatory Meetings & Events 

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

·       Tuesday, September 24, 9:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman

Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy at the Kentucky Bankers Association Annual Convention.

·       Wednesday, September 25, 4:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech on the Economic Outlook at the Harvard Kennedy School, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

·       Thursday, September 26, 9:15 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler participates in a Fireside chat on Financial Inclusion with President Susan M. Collins, co-hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston and Minneapolis and the Federal Reserve Board (virtual)

·       Thursday, September 26, 9:15 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman participates in a discussion on the “Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” at the Mid-size Bank Coalition of America Board of Directors Workshop.

·       Thursday, September 26 - The Federal Reserve Bank of New York holds its 2024 U.S. Treasury Market Conference.  Scheduled speakers include Brian Smith, deputy assistant Treasury secretary for federal finance, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen, and SEC Chair Gary Gensler.

·       Thursday, September 26, 10:30 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook participates in a roundtable discussion entitled “Artificial Intelligence and Workforce Development” at the Roundtable Discussion with Community Stakeholders, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and Columbus State Community College, Columbus, Ohio.

·       Thursday, September 26, 1:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr participates in a fireside chat on financial inclusion with Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari, co-hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston and Minneapolis and the Federal Reserve Board (virtual).

·       Thursday, September 26, 6:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech on Artificial Intelligence and the Labor Force at the Ohio State University President and Provost’s Diversity Lecture and Cultural Arts Series, Columbus, Ohio.

·       Friday, September 27, 1:15 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman participates in a conversation at the Alabama Bankers Association Bank CEO Meeting, Birmingham, Alabama.

U.S. Treasury Department

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

·       Tuesday, September 24, 9:00 a.m. – The SEC holds its Securities Enforcement Forum Central 2024 in Chicago.

·       Wednesday, September 26 – SEC Chair Gary Gensler will speak at the 10th Annual U.S. Treasury Market Conference in New York.

·       Thursday, September 26, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

·       Monday, September 23, 2:40 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will be featured in a fireside chat, “Preparing for Digital Transformation: The Role of Regulation,” at the Global Blockchain Business Council’s (GBBC) 7th Annual Blockchain Central at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA).

·       Monday, September 23, 4:00 p.m. – CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam will participate in a fireside chat at the API/ClearPath Carbon Innovation Forum in New York.

FINRA

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

·       Thursday, September 19, 10:00 a.m. – The NCUA holds a board meeting. 

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

·        Thursday, September 19, 11:00 a.m. – The FTC will hold an Open Commission Meeting. The Commission will hear a staff presentation on the Social Media and Video Streaming Services 6(b) Orders and a staff presentation on the Rule on the Use of Consumer Reviews and Testimonials.

·       Thursday, September 19, 1:00 p.m. – The FTC will hold an informal hearing on the Proposed Amendments to the Energy Labeling Rule.

Farm Credit Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

·       Sunday – Wednesday, September 22 – 25 – The Investment Company Institute holds its 2024 Tax and Accounting Conference in Boca Raton, Florida.

·       Thursday & Friday, September 26-27 – SIFMA Holds their “Future of Asset Management North America” Conference in New York.

·       Thursday, September 26, 9:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance holds an online event entitled Policy Implications of the 2024 U.S. Elections:  Financial Regulation.

·       Thursday, September 26, 10:00 a.m. – The Futures Industry Association holds an online seminar entitled “The CFTC’s Evolving Disclosure Requirements.”

·       Thursday, September 26 – SIFMA holds its Global Tax Reporting Symposium in New York.

Think Tanks and Other Events

·       Monday, September 23, 2:30 p.m. – The Brookings Institution holds a discussion on "Making housing more affordable: Issues at stake in the 2024 election."

·       Wednesday, September 25, 10:30 a.m. – The Brookings Institution’s Hamilton Project will hold a webinar entitled “Taking on Tax: Modernizing Partnership Taxation.”

·       Thursday, September 26, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a virtual discussion on "The Economic Effects of Trump's Plans for tariffs, Deportations, and the Fed."

·       Thursday, September 26 , 9:00 a.m. -  The Atlantic Council GeoEconomics Center holds its Transatlantic Forum on GeoEconomics on "Next Frontiers in Finance, Technology, and Energy."

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reads

Latin America Struggles with Cheap Chinese EV Imports, the Very Slow German Military Modernization, and How Russia Creatively Gets Around Western Sanctions.

September 20 - 22, 2024

Latin America 

• Driving Change: How EVs Are Reshaping China’s Economic Relationship with Latin America  Center for Strategic and International Studies

  Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are navigating a new geopolitical moment. Some LAC countries are benefitting from increased access to low-cost, high-quality electric vehicles (EVs) and new investment throughout the value chain from China that can help meet governments’ climate and economic objectives. However, this comes with risks, as dependencies on Beijing may be exacerbated at a time when China’s economy is underperforming, and geopolitical competition with the United States is on the rise.

Turkey

• Closing the backdoor: The new TurkStream is here. Can the West stop it?    Politico EU

  The EU cannot look away as Gazprom tries to launder Russian gas exports via the new TurkStream pipeline. And fully decoupling from Russian energy now would show Europe still stands with Ukraine. What is TurkStream?  It is a new 570-mile gas twin-pipeline running under the Black Sea, linking Russia and Turkey which is expected to deliver 31.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year to Turkey.  However, According to Turkey’s Energy Minister, the state-owned gas monopoly BOTAŞ would now be able to export around 7 to 8 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas through Bulgaria to Central Europe under a new brand called “Turkish Blend,” mixing gas from various sources.

• Turkey’s Strategic Autonomy in the Black Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean  Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik

  In the Black Sea, Turkey has been able to engage in resource exploration and joint security arrangements with its neighbors. Ankara’s approach to the Black Sea demonstrates that with the right diplomatic efforts and mutual recognition of interests, regional cooperation is possible even in complex geopolitical environments. The contrast in Ankara’s positioning in the Black Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean highlights the potential for Turkey to participate in cooperative frameworks in the latter case, provided its concerns and interests are adequately addressed.

Europe 

• Fit for War In Decades: Europe’s and Germany’s Slow Rearmament vis-à-vis Russia  Kiel Institute for the World Economy

  This study documents Germany’s military procurement in a new Kiel Military Procurement Tracker and finds that Germany did not meaningfully increase procurement in the one-and-a-half years after February 2022 and only accelerated it in late 2023. Given Germany’s massive disarmament in the last decades and the current procurement speed, we find that for some key weapon systems, Germany will not attain 2004 levels of armament for about 100 years. When considering arms commitments to Ukraine, some German capacities are even falling. The new Tracker provides detailed information on quantities, value of the orders, predicted delivery dates, as well as the companies from which Germany procures. The situation of slow and insufficient procurement can and needs to be remedied.

• The End of the Zeitenwende: Reflections After Two Years of Action Group Zeitenwende  German Council on Foreign Relations

  “Zeitenwende” is German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s national security and defense transformation, launched in 2023.  In a historic speech after the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, Scholz said the attack marked a “Zeitenwende” (a historic turning point) and Germany must rise to the challenge by undertaking five policies: 1) Support Ukraine in its fight for freedom, 2) Reducing German dependence on Russian energy while continuing to pursue climate goals, 3) Taking a tougher approach to Russia and addressing threats from authoritarian states, 4), Enhancing Germany’s role in strengthening the EU and NATO, and, 5) Ensuring that Germany could militarily defend itself.  In this paper, the author argues Zeitenwende has largely failed – an early assessment of what is likely to be a major policy issue as Germany heads toward national elections in 2025.

• While the US and China Decouple, the EU and China Deepen Trade Dependencies  Peterson Institute for International Economics

  Pandemic-era shortages and rising geopolitical tensions have fueled calls in recent years for the United States and the European Union to “decouple,” or at least greatly reduce their dependence on imports, from China. All three of the world's largest trading regions are pursuing policies to diversify the sources of their imports, both as a hedge against natural supply disruptions and to reduce vulnerability to economic coercion.  The United States has decreased its dependence on China for all types of imported manufactured goods since 2018, according to recently released 2023 customs data. The European Union and China, however, have maintained or increased their reliance on each other for almost all types of imported goods, creating the potential for future clashes between EU and US national security policies.

Russia’s Evasion of Sanctions

• What Wasn’t Sanctioned? Why Russia and the West Continued Trading amid the Russia-Ukraine War  American Enterprise Institute

  Russia and the West imposed tough economic sanctions on one another during the initial phase of the Russia-Ukraine war, hoping to change the other side’s political calculus.  Because the war has lasted longer than either party expected, both have come to tolerate substantial volumes of trade in many commodities, including gas, aluminum, titanium, and uranium, illustrating the constraints on each side’s willingness to incur costs. Both sides overestimated the sanctions’ impact on their adversaries’ decision-making around the war.

• The Indian Apartment Behind Russian Efforts to Break US Gas Sanctions   Bloomberg

  A network stretching from Dubai to China is involved in a multi-billion-dollar effort to ship gas from Russia's Arctic LNG facility. Bloomberg’s analysis of company data, satellite images and ship-tracking information shows the lengths to which Moscow appears to be willing to go to capture market share. In the short term it could provide some wartime profit, but the government’s ultimate goal is to triple LNG exports by 2030 as one of the pillars of any post-conflict economy — especially after losing Europe as its top pipeline gas customer.

• Gold Rush: How Russia is Using Gold in Wartime   Rand Corporation

  This report examines how Russia has been using gold since its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It begins with an outline of Russia's pre-war gold policy and describes how it has changed since the start of the war. It provides a discussion of how the gold sector is financed, with attention on the role of Russia's banks and how its gold companies have responded to Western pressure and sanctions. It describes how Russia's gold producers are faring, both in terms of their wartime productivity and access to mining equipment. Additionally, it offers detail on how Russia is seeking to generate revenues from gold and develop its international gold trade. The report concludes with recommending avenues for further investigation.

 Geopolitics

• Four Geopolitical Disruptions and How to Exploit Them   Nadia Schadlow/Hudson Institute

  In this provocative policy memo, Schadlow, primary author of the 2017 National Security Strategy, writes that four emerging disruptions will demand the attention of whomever the American people choose as their president: 1) An authoritarian axis is rapidly coalescing around China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, disrupting the belief that an international community has taken shape in the aftermath of the Cold War, 2) Climate alarmism and the prohibitively expensive green transition will give way to energy sobriety, which recognizes the need for abundant, reliable, and cheap power, 3) A new realism about trade will see beliefs about free trade cast aside in favor of addressing imbalanced trade and the mercantilist practices of countries like China, and, 4) The transformational potential of artificial intelligence which will affect individuals, societies, economies, and political systems in ways no one can foresee – indeed, it could be the most disruptive development of all.  Schadlow argues All four of these disruptions represent fault lines that have emerged from a shifting post–Cold War architecture. They are not only drivers of the breakdown of this architecture but also symptoms of its failures. Further, they are taking place against the backdrop of America’s relative decline as a world power. The way policymakers shape and respond to these disruptions will impact US power as well as the relative power of other states.

The Global Week Ahead

Central Banks Dominate the Markets and Politics this Week, Voting Begins in Pennsylvania and a Number of Other States, and the Quad Leaders Meet with President Biden to Discuss Indo-Pacific Security Issues

For markets this coming week, it is all about central bank meetings and interest rates.  The U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the Central Bank of Brazil all meet.  But of them all, the U.S. Fed’s decision will likely be the most impactful as markets debate whether it is a 25—or 50-basis cut. 

Against this global monetary backdrop, voting begins in the U.S., with Pennsylvania kicking off in-person voting and a number of other states beginning mail-in voting.  The Fed’s decision to cut rates – if, in fact, that is what they do – is likely to incur the wrath of former President Trump, who has already suggested such a cut two months before the election, is meant to tip the political scales for Vice President Kamala Harris and Democrats.   But as this happens, the U.S. Congress seems to be marching toward another government shutdown as House Republicans battle over what should be added to a Continuing Resolution (C.R.) to keep the government open until at least after the elections.  History has repeatedly shown that the political party that causes shutdowns pays for it at the ballot box.  There is hope a last-minute solution can be reached, but the timeline is getting increasingly tight.

Meanwhile, President Biden will host the Quad Summit in his home state of Delaware this week.  The Prime Ministers of India, Japan, and Australia will gather with Biden to discuss the current security situation in the Indo-Pacific and how best to deal with growing tensions with China in the South China Sea and elsewhere.   As this is happening – and on a positive note – the top Chinese General in the region, General Wu Yanan, is expected to visit the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command in Hawaii this week.  It has been at least three years since such a meeting has taken place and it is considered to be a notable step in improving relations and engagement between China and the U.S.  The visit comes after a video conference call between the General Yanan and Admiral Samuel Paparo, Head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, the first such call in a long time.

Turning back to the global economic radar screen for the week, markets are watching the August US retail sales numbers and industrial production figures.  In Europe, the U.K. releases its August inflation prints, while Germany releases the latest ZEW survey.  In Asia, Japan’s August CPI and trade balance are out this week, while China releases retail sales and industrial production figures.

Below are the many other important events and releases we are watching this coming week: 

Sunday, September 15, 2024

Global

·       Muslims worldwide mark "al-Mawlid al-Nabawi", the birthday of Prophet Mohammed.

·       The IMF will resume online consultations with Russia ahead of the organization's first visit to the country since 2019. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Argentine President Javier Milei presents budget for 2025 to Congress. He is breaking normal tradition of sending it and instead deliver it in person.

·       After signing into law the controversial new judicial reform bill, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador leads 'cry of independence' ceremony in Mexico City, his final public event as president.

·       Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua all celebrate their respective Independence Days today.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 56th ASEAN Economic Ministers Meet  (AEM) takes place in Vientiane, Laos.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China FDI (YTD) (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Romania holds presidential elections. Independent candidate Mircea Geoană is estimated to secure the most votes, followed closely by the Prime Minister and leader of the Social Democrat Party (PSD), Marcel Ciolacu.

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz begins his first trip to Central Asia with visits to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.  The trip comes after Scholz hosted the leaders of five central Asian nations in Berlin in 2023 to discuss closer cooperation and to find a way to pry away growing relations these nations are building with Russia and China.  Scholz will take part in the C5+1 meeting in Kazakhstan (the C5 being Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan). 

·        The NATO Military Committee meets in Prague, Czech Republic.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates in a fireside chat at the Open Day 2024 of Deutsche Bundesbank in Frankfurt, Germany.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       In Iran, today is the 2nd anniversary of protests sparked by death of Mahsa Amini arrested for alleged breach of Iran's strict dress code.  The government is enforcing a strict lock-down on any protests or visits to her grave.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (August) / Wholesale Prices (August)

·       Israel Inflation Rate (August)/ M1 Money Supply (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Students in Nigeria will hold nationwide protests over rising fuel prices.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 16, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East.  Humanitarian Coordinator for Gaza Sigrid Kaag reports to the Council her latest findings.

·       UN Security Council The UN nuclear watchdog IAEA holds its annual General Conference in Geneva.

·       The UN Special Rapporteurs will press conference on violence and human rights violations in Gaza, occupied Palestinian Territories in Geneva.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Former President Donald Trump launches his cryptocurrency platform World Liberty Financial with a live address from Mar-a-Lago, Florida.

·       Pennsylvania beings early voting.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales Final (July)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (July)

·       USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (September)/ NOPA Crush Report

·       Colombia Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (July)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       ASEAN Economic ministers gather in Vientiane. The high-level gathering, meant to foster economic cooperation and integration, comes as the region continues to navigate challenges brought by geopolitical tensions and China's slowing economy.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (August)

·       India Passenger Vehicles Sales (August)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (July)

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Germany will introduce stricter controls at its land borders for the next six months. 

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Research Ministers through September 17 in Budapest, Hungary. 

·       Audi unions have called for demonstration by auto workers against job losses in Europe.

·       An initiative group headed by Armenia's former justice minister will begin collecting signatures on the issue of holding a referendum on Armenia's accession to the European Union.

Economic Reports/Events –

European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in a conversation at event VII Foro Banca organized by El Economista in Madrid, Spain.

European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a speech at the European Investment Bank Chief Economists' meeting in Luxembourg.

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (August)

·       Euro Area ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts/ ECB Guindos Speech/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Labour Cost Index Q2/ Wage Growth Q2/ ECB Lane Speech

·       Italy Inflation Rate Final (August)/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (July)

·       Serbia Building Permits (July)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (August)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (July)

·       Turkey Auto Production (August)/ Auto Sales (August)/ Budget Balance (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q2/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Oman Inflation Rate (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (August)

Tuesday, September 17, 2024

Global

·       In Geneva, A UN sponsored independent international Fact-Finding Mission Venezuela’s latest report to the Human Rights Council will be launched.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Former Bolivian President Evo Morales and allied unions begin march to La Paz to call for his presidential candidacy.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Housing Starts (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ CPI Median (August)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (August)

·       USA Retail Sales (August)/ Redbook (September/14)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Capacity Utilization (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)/ Business Inventories (July)/ Fed Logan Speech/ NAHB Housing Market Index (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/13)/ International Monetary Market (IMM) Date

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Unemployment Rate Final Q2

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Japan Tertiary Industry Index (July)

·       India WPI Food & Fuel Index (August)/ WPI Inflation (August)/ WPI Manufacturing (August)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (September/17)

·       Australia RBA Jones Speech

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·        European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will announce plans for the make-up of her next commission in the European Parliament. 

·       The European Parliament will hold its first plenary session since the summer break (its second since EU elections in June) through September 19.  They are expected to debate and vote on a resolution on Venezuela and the recent fraudulent elections.

·       Moldova will host a ministerial conference within the Moldova Partnership Platform to support the country's European integration.  This is being done in conjunction with the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) making a pre-electoral visit to Moldova through September 18 to assess the country's political climate. 

·       Milan Fashion Week begins.  Derek Zoolander will not be there.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives opening remark at the Supervisory Culture Conference organized by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates on a panel entitled Culture and Supervisory Risk Tolerance" at Supervisory Culture Conference organized by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates on a panel Participation entitled "Supervisory Effectiveness" at Supervisory Culture Conference organized by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (September)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (September)/ ZEW Current Conditions (September)

·       Belarus GDP (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Current Account Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Consumer Confidence Q3

Wednesday, September 18, 2024

Global

·       The UN General Assembly will hold a special session, vote on Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories.  It is expected they will vote to call on Israel to end military action in Gaza and withdraw.  The resolution is expected to call Israel’s actions there as “unlawful.”

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA).  

·       The G20 Research and Innovation Ministerial meeting will be held in Manaus, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       New York City will hold its Inaugural National Urban Rat Summit on combatting rat infestations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meets to discuss interest rates.  Fed Chair Powell will host a press conference afterward at 2:30 p.m. EST.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/13)/ Building Permits Prel (August)/ Housing Starts (August)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (September/13)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (July)/ Foreign Bond Investment (July)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (July)

·       Mexico Aggregate Demand Q2/ Private Spending Q2

·       Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (July)/ BoC Summary of Deliberations

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (July)

·       Argentina GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Central Bank of Brazil Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India's Jammu and Kashmir holds local elections , marking the Himalayan region's first polls in a decade and five years after New Delhi yanked its special autonomy status. The vote will be held over several phases with results expected early next month.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Westpac Consumer Confidence Q3/ Current Account Q2

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Machinery Orders (July)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (August)

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (August)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate (September)

·       India M3 Money Supply (September/06)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Services PMI (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets International Committee of the Red Cross President Mirjana Spoljaric in Moscow.  Spoljaric will be attending the 4th Eurasian Women’s Forum being held in Moscow.

·       Swedish Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard will make her first foreign visit to Turkey since Turkey allowed Sweden to join NATO.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives opening remarks at the  Supervision Innovators Conference 2024 "Technology and banking supervision connected" organized by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives a speech on "The future of European banking supervision - connecting people and technology" at Supervision Innovators Conference 2024 "Technology and banking supervision connected" organized by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI Output (August)/ PPI Input (August)/ Retail Price Index (August)

·       Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)

·       Euro Area ECB Buch Speech/ Inflation Rate Final (August)/ Construction Output (July)/ CPI Final (August)/ ECB McCaul Speech

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (July)

·       Russia PPI (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Oman M2 Money Supply (July)/ Total Credit (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Africa Aerospace and Defence (AAD) Begins in Centurion, South Africa.

·       significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Ghana GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August)

Thursday, September 19, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East (Gaza and Israeli settlements). 

·       G7 Culture Ministers meet Positano, Italy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Wisconsin starts mailing ballots to voters who requested them.

·       Colombia’s Workers Central Union will hold protests in Bogota in support of President Gustavo Petro’s economic and social policies. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA Current Account Q2/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/14)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (September)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (September)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (September)/ Philly Fed Employment (September)/ Philly Fed New Orders (September)/ Philly Fed Prices Paid (September)/ Existing Home Sales (August)/ CB Leading Index (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September/13)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/18)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/18)

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (July)/ Imports (July)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (August)/ Unemployment Rate Q2

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       The Bank of Japan meets to decide interest rates.

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (September/14)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/14)

·       Australia Employment Change (August)/ Participation Rate (August)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Taiwan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       China's Commerce Minister Wang Wentao holds talks with EU's Valdis Dombrovskis on EV tariffs in Brussels.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Transportation Ministers in Budapest, Hungary through September 20.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen will participate in a press conference with Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, on support to Ukraine’s energy security for the coming winter.  Later, she will host a working lunch with the leaders of the six Western Balkan partners.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of England meets to discuss and decide interest rates.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in an exchange of views on "Current aspects of monetary policy" with Association of German Banks (Committee for Economic and Monetary Policy) in Frankfurt, Germany.  Later, she chairs a session entitled “Jean Monnet Lecture” at the 9th ECB Annual Research Conference in Frankfurt.

·       European Union New Car Registrations (August)

·       Euro Area Current Account (July)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (August)/ SECO Economic Forecasts

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (August)/ Employment Growth (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ PPI (August)

·       Italy Current Account (July)

·       Serbia Current Account (July)

·       Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending & Borrowing Rate (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/13)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

·       Slovakia Current Account (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (September)

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (July)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

·       Angola Interest Rate Decision

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (August)

Friday, September 20, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria). 

·       The UN’s Summit of the Future Action Days  begins and runs through September 23 in New York.  The theme is "#YouthLead for the Future: We believe in the promise of a better world for all". 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Minnesota and South Dakota start mail and in-person early voting; Virginia begins in-person early voting.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on "The Federal Reserve: It's More Than Just Interest Rates" before the Tulane University Freeman School of Business Lecture event in New Orleans, Louisiana.

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (August)/ Retail Sales (July)/ PPI (August)/ Raw Materials Prices (August)

·       USA Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/20)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (August)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (August)

·       Argentina Leading Indicator (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Inflation Rate (August)/ BoJ Interest Rate Decision

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (September)

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (August)

·       Hong Kong Current Account Q2/ Inflation Rate (August)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (September/06)/ Deposit Growth (September/06)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/13)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Czech Republic holds the first round of Senate elections.

·       Today is the deadline for EU member states under excessive deficit procedure to issue their medium-term fiscal adjustment plans, which most countries are set to miss. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the 2024 Michel Camdessus Central Banking Lecture organized by the IMF in Washington, DC.  She then participates in a conversation with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva at the IMF.

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Board Catherine Mann gives the keynote speech at the Central Bank Research Association, National Bank of Poland, and Bank of Lithuania 5th Biennial Conference entitled “Macroeconomic adjustments after large global shocks” in Lithuania.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Prudential Policy David Bailey gives a speech at the Building Societies Association entitled “Strong and Simple – Completing the Picture” in London.

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (September)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing (August)

·       Germany PPI (August)

·       France Business Confidence (September)

·       Switzerland Current Account Q2

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (September)/ Central Government Debt (August)

·       Greece Current Account (July)

·       Italy Construction Output (June)/ Construction Output (July)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (July)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (September)/ PPI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash (September)

·       Slovakia Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Russia Consumer Confidence Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (August)/ Total Credit Growth (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (August)

·       Ghana PPI (August)

Saturday, September 21, 2024

Global

·       The G20 Tourism Ministerial Meetings take place in Belem, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Joe Biden will host the Quad Summit in Wilmington, Delaware.  The leaders of Australia, Japan, and India will gather to discuss security issues in the Indo-Pacific.

·       Today is the federal deadline for all absentee ballots to be mailed to military and overseas voters. Eleven states will send out their mail-in ballots by this day, and North Carolina is expected to as well.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Sri Lanka holds Presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Oktoberfest begins in Munich, Germany and runs through October 6.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nigeria holds gubernatorial elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 22, 2024 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Thailand New Car Sales (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Germany, the state of Brandenburg holds state elections.

·       Switzerland holds a referendum vote on initiative to strengthen biodiversity protection.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today in South Sudan is the deadline for dissolution of the transitional unity government ahead of possible December elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The Fed Backs Down on Bigger Bank Capital Standards Setting Up A Possible FDIC Vote This Week; Election Betting Gets Held Up Again, and FDIC Chair Gruenberg Refuses to Testify Before Congress

September 16 - 20, 2024

The coming week will be filled with lots of regulatory speeches, congressional hearings, and a good number of trade association conferences. However, the biggest event is likely to be the FDIC's Open Meeting, where they may vote on the much-criticized and now scaled-back bank capital requirements. In a major concession to lobbying by big banks and many members of Congress, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michael Barr announced last week that the Fed, OCC, and FDIC had negotiated a re-write, but it is unclear if all the details have been finalized among the three regulators.

The FDIC action comes as embattled FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg shockingly refused a request to testify before the House Financial Services Committee. Gruenberg, who has announced he will at some point step down from his role, allowing a toxic work environment and widespread sexual harassment as well as his own personal unprofessional behavior, was supposed to testify on September 19, but his staff informed the Committee he would not show up. As we have noted in previous updates, Gruenberg refuses to step down until a replacement is confirmed by the US Senate, which most seasoned observers believe will not happen until next year due to the elections and the Senate schedule – something Gruenberg clearly understands as he desperately clings to power.

Regarding Gruenberg's replacement, Senate Banking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is apparently looking to hold a committee confirmation vote for current CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero this week. But we know two senators are out of action this week for health reasons and believe the committee vote probably will not happen.

Also, election betting on financial exchanges was expected to begin this coming week. However, a federal appellate court halted the financial exchange Kalshi on Friday to review the situation more closely. The CFTCC had ruled against allowing such betting through derivative markets. However, a federal judge overturned the CFTC block Thursday, and  Kalshi began to trade election betting contracts quickly, but they are now in limbo as the appellate court looks deeper into the matter. How long until they rule is anyone's guess. But it could come as early as this week.

Below is a listing of all the other significant regulatory-related events this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

U.S. Senate

·       Tuesday, September 17, 2:30 p.m. – The Senate Banking Committee’s Subcommittee on Financial Institutions and Consumer Protection holds a hearing entitled “Back to School: Shedding Light on Risks and Harm in the Private Student Lending and Servicing Market”

·       Wednesday, September 18, 2:00 p.m. – The Senate Banking Committee’s Economic Policy Subcommittee will hold a hearing on the macroeconomic impacts of potential tax reform in 2025.

·       Sometime During the Week of September 16 – TBD – Senate Banking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown (D-OH) may attempt to bring up for a committee vote the nomination of FDIC Chair-designate Christy Goldsmith Romero – along with several other nominations (an SEC Commissioner nomination, an insurance expert for the Financial Stability Oversight Council, and a nominee for Assistant Secretary of Treasury). 

House of Representatives

·       Wednesday, September 18, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology, and Inclusion will hold a hearing entitled “Dazed and Confused: Breaking Down the SEC’s Politicized Approach to Digital Assets.”  

·       Wednesday, September 18, 10:00 a.m. – The House Appropriations Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, and Related Agencies Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Oversight Hearing: Inspectors General of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, Department of Transportation, and the National Railroad Passenger Corporation."

·       Wednesday, September 18, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions will hold a hearing entitled “Protecting Americans Savings: Examining the Economics of the Multi-Billion Dollar Romance Confidence Scam Industry.”

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

·       Tuesday and Wednesday, September 17 & 18 – The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee meets to discuss the economy and interest rates.  Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell will give a press release on the 18th at 2:00 p.m.

U.S. Treasury Department

·       Monday, September 16, 1:30 p.m. – The Treasury Department holds a meeting of the Federal Advisory Committee on Insurance to discuss topics related to climate-related financial risk and the insurance sector, cyber insurance developments, and international insurance issues and to receive status updates from each of its subcommittees and from FIO on its activities and consider any new business.

·       Tuesday, September 17, 3:45 p.m. – Treasury Undersecretary for Domestic Finance Nellie Liang will speak at the Georgetown Univeristy Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy in Washington, D.C..

·       Thursday, September 19, 9:30 a.m. – The Treasury Department’s Community Development Financial Institutions Fund holds a meeting of the Community Development Advisory Board for a report from the CDFI Fund Director on the activities of the CDFI Fund and panel discussions related to the advisory board's subcommittees.

Department of Commerce

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

·       Wednesday, September 18, 10:00 a.m. – The SEC will hold an Open Meeting. The agenda is whether to amend Regulation NMS to “allow the minimum pricing increments for quoting of certain NMS stocks, reduce the access fee caps, and enhance the transparency of better priced order.”

·       Thursday, September 19, 10:00 a.m. – the SEC’s Investor Advisory Committee meets at the SEC Headquarters. The committee will host two panels.  The first is entitled “Investment Advice: A History and Update on Who is Required to Serve in Your Best Interest” and the second “Key Topics from Securities Litigation: Shareholder Proposals and “Tracing” in Section 11 Litigation.”  The full agenda can be found HERE.  And a full listing of the Advisory Committee members can be found HERE.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

·       Tuesday, September 17, 10:30 a.m. – CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam to speak at Georgetown University’s Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy Financial Markets Quality 2024.

·       Wednesday, September 18, 11:00 a.m. (CDT) – CFTC Commissioner Summer K. Mersinger will participate in the 2025 Outlook Panel at the Futures Industry Association’s Forum: Commodities 2024 in Houston, Texas.

·       Friday, September 20, 10:00 a.m. – The CFTC will hold an Open Meeting to consider Final Guidance regarding the Listing of Voluntary Carbon Credit Derivative Contracts.

FINRA

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

·       Tuesday, September 17, 10:00 a.m. – The FDIC Board will hold an Open Meeting.  The agenda includes a proposed rulemaking on Custodial Deposit Accounts as well as the FDIC’s final statement of Policy on Bank Merger Transactions.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

·       Thursday, September 19, 10:00 a.m. – The NCUA holds a board meeting. 

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

·        Thursday, September 19, 11:00 a.m. – The FTC will hold an Open Commission Meeting. The Commission will hear a staff presentation on the Social Media and Video Streaming Services 6(b) Orders and a staff presentation on the Rule on the Use of Consumer Reviews and Testimonials.

·       Thursday, September 19, 1:00 p.m. – The FTC will hold an informal hearing on the Proposed Amendments to the Energy Labeling Rule.

Farm Credit Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

·       September 15 – 18, 2024 – SIFMA is holding its Ops2024 Conference in San Diego, California.

·       September 18, 10:00 a.m. – The International Institute for Finance holds an online conference entitled “Energy Supply Ratio: Examining a New Climate Disclosure Metric.”

Think Tanks and Other Events

·       Monday, September 16, 11:00 a.m. – The Wilson Center's Global Europe Program holds a discussion on "Cyprus Banks on the Frontline of Sanctions Compliance."

·       September 17, 1:00 p.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a virtual discussion entitled “The Economic Danger of Revoking China’s Permanent Normal Trade Status.”

·       Wednesday, September 18, 2:00 p.m. – The Brookings Institution is holding an event entitled “Mobilizing the Market: The Barriers to Financing a More Scalable Climate Response”  Ethan Zindler, the Climate Counselor at the US Treasury Department, will give the keynote remarks.

·       Thursday, September 19, 5:00 p.m. – The American Enterprise Institute will hold an event entitled “The Forgotten Solution to the Housing Crunch: A Premier of the AEI Housing Center’s Documentary on Light-Touch Density.”

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reads

September 13 - 15, 2024

Geoeconomics

• The Innovation Paradox     MF Finance and Development Magazine

  We've long assumed that investing more in research and development is a surefire way to spur innovation, increase productivity, and fuel job creation and economic growth. And yet, as the US dramatically expanded R&D spending over the past four decades, the opposite happened. Innovation, productivity gains, and economic expansion slowed. What went wrong?
  

• High and Rising Institutional Concentration of Award-Winning Economists   National Bureau of Economic Research/Richard Freeman, Danxia Xie, Hanzhe Zhang, Hanzhang Zhou

  Abstract: We analyze the institutional clustering of award-winning researchers. We collect nearly 300,000 annual education and career affiliations of nearly 6,000 award-winning researchers across 18 major academic fields in the natural sciences, engineering, and social sciences. All fields, except for economics, exhibit a low and decreasing concentration, which suggests a trend toward decentralized knowledge production.  Conversely, economics shows a high and rising concentration.  We investigate potential reasons for this anomaly, including researcher mobility, reliance on physical assets, the age of fields, the role of prestige, and the influence of the United States in shaping disciplinary norms (Fulcrum Note: So, this proves economists do roam in packs? Hmmm…)

India

• Can India Change Course?  A Conversation with Pratap Bhanu Mehta   Foreign Affairs Podcast

  Pratap Bhanu Mehta, President of the Centre for Policy Research, is one of India’s wisest political observers—a great political theorist and writer as well as a fierce critic, and occasional target, of Modi and his policies. Foreign Affairs Senior Editor Kanishk Tharoor spoke with him on September 3 about what the election means for Indian democracy and where the country goes from here.

European Union

• The Future of European Competitiveness: A Comprehensive Strategy for Europe   Mario Draghi

  Former European Central Bank President and former Italian Prime Minister was asked by EU President Ursula von der Leyen to conduct a comprehensive study on how the European Union could become more competitive with the US and China.  This past week, Draghi published a 400-page comprehensive and wide-ranging report offering recommendations for ten main economic sectors.  Overall, Draghi says the EU needs to invest between €750 - €850 billion per year – close to 5% of the bloc’s GDP – to stay competitive in the face of shrinking populations, the need to rapidly and massively ramp up combined defense capabilities, and offset the supply of previously cheap energy (mostly coming from Russia).  

• A World of Chips Acts:  The Future of U.S.-EU Semiconductor Collaboration  Center for Strategic and International Studies

  The U.S. and the EU have each recently enacted legislation providing for an unprecedented volume of public investments in semiconductors, with the largest portion allocated to the establishment of new onshore chip production facilities. Substantial funds are also allocated to semiconductor research and development, supply chain security, and workforce expansion and training. These parallel initiatives have been prompted by an awareness in both regions of threats to economic and strategic security arising out of their dependency on foreign-made chips. The question posed by the enactment of the two Chips Acts is how such joint activities can be deepened, broadened, and leveraged by direct engagement between the United States, the European Union, and national authorities to address the vulnerabilities faced by both ecosystems.

• The EU has a playbook to de-risk from China.  Is it working?    Brookings Institution

  The European Union’s (EU) decision to raise its tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) has prompted speculation about whether the EU and the United States could cooperatively “de-risk” from China. Much like the United States, the EU has developed a “de-risking” playbook with three goals: to protect its economy from outside encroachments, to promote its own competitiveness and resilience, and to partner with others to amplify its economy’s strengths and mitigate its vulnerabilities. In fact, the term “de-risking” was pioneered by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and later embraced by the Biden administration and all G7 leaders.   But is it working?
  

China

• China Decoupling Handbook: Where We Are, What To Do    American Enterprise Institute/Derek Scissors

  Scissors writes the case for a smaller US-China relationship keeps getting stronger, arguing that China under President Xi Jinping will not become a better partner.  To achieve this decoupling, which is already underway, additional policies are needed around imports, exports (especially technology), inbound investment, outbound investment, and supply chains.   In his “handbook,” Scissors details how best to carry out such policies in each area.

• Why Catching Up to Starlink is a Priority for Beijing   Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  China’s push to enter the satellite internet market shouldn’t come as a surprise. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has poured significant resources into closing the gap with America’s space-based technologies, and its efforts are starting to pay off. on August 9, a Long March 6A rocket blasted off from the Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center in the northern Chinese province of Shanxi. The rocket carried eighteen low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites from the government-backed company Qianfan. State media hailed the launch as China’s answer to Starlink, the U.S.-based satellite internet pioneer, and the first step toward breaking America’s dominance in this market. Qianfan intends to grow its constellation to more than 600 satellites by the end of 2025 and to eventually place 14,000 satellites into orbit