The Global Week Ahead

The Tense Wait for Israel’s Military Response to Iran’s Attack Continues, the European Council Gathers on Ukraine and Middle East Policy, Biden Goes to Germany, and the ECB Meets on Rates

October 13 - 20, 2024

With less than a month until the US elections, the world tensely awaits Israel's promised military response to Iran's recent missile attack as Israeli military forces continue to intensify their attacks on Hezbollah forces in Southern Lebanon.  It remains unclear if Israel will attack Iranian nuclear facilities or oil production and shipping facilities or, military sites, or critical infrastructure facilities – or some variation of all of these. 

The situation in the Middle East and Ukraine will be the focus of EU leaders this week as the European Council meets in Brussels.  Of note, the leaders will discuss and debate further military aid to Ukraine and allowing Ukraine to use NATO/EU weapons to strike Russian positions and troops inside Russia – something Russian President Vladimir Putin has angrily threatened the West would be seen as a significant escalation crossing one of his "red lines." 

The EU leaders will also discuss the recently released competitiveness reports written by former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi and how best to implement the report's sweeping recommendations.  They will also discuss ongoing trade tensions with China.

Later in the week, President Biden will visit Germany for meetings with German Chancellor Scholz.  Biden was scheduled to visit last week but had to cancel due to Hurricane Milton hitting Florida. 

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, markets are preparing for the IMF/World Bank meetings beginning on October 21st.  Until then, markets are focused on US retail sales and industrial production figures released this week as indicators of where the Federal Reserve will go with rates when it meets in November. 

Moving to Asia, markets remain intensely focused on China following the extraordinary efforts to stabilize the economy.  Beijing releases inflation figures and important trade balance numbers this week.  Elsewhere, Japan releases CPI figures.

In Europe, the European Central Bank meets on interest rates, and markets anticipate a 25-basis point cut.  The UK releases inflation data, and Germany sees the release of the ZEW survey, which will better clarify how the country's economy is doing in the face of a spate of negative data.

Below are the other major political and economic events we are watching this coming week:

Sunday, October 13, 2024

Global

·       The World Health Summit begins in Berlin.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Biden was scheduled to travel to Angola for meetings through October 15 with Angolan President João Lourenço to discuss increased trade and climate collaboration. However, the trip was cancelled due to Hurricane Herman hitting Florida.

·       The XVI Conference of Defense Ministers of the Americas takes through October 16 I Mendoza, Argentina.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China PPI (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ New Yuan Loans (September)/ M2 Money Supply (September)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (September)/ Total Social Financing (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Lithuania holds legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi meets with senior Iraqi leaders in Baghdad.  Araghchi has been traveling throughout the region this past week meeting with leaders in Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE in an effort to gather support and in advance of an expected Israeli attack on Iran.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 14, 2024

Global

·      OPEC releases its monthly report. 

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to meet for consultations on 1559 report (regarding the security situation in Lebanon).

·       The Nobel Prize for Economics winner is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canada celebrates Thanksgiving.  Financial markets are closed.

·       Today is Columbus Day in the US. Stock markets remain open while bond markets and some banks observe the day and are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller speaks on the economic outlook before the "A 50-Year Retrospective on The Shadow Open Market Committee and Its Role in Monetary Policy" conference hosted by Stanford University.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in panel discussion at the Central Bank of Argentina's Money and Banking Conference:" Fiscal Deficits, Monetary Policy and Inflation” in Argentina.  Later, he participates in lecture/fireside chat," The Current State of U.S. Monetary Policy," hosted by the Department of Economics at Torcuato di Tella University in Buenos Aires.

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (August)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (August)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Premier Li Qiang will visit Vietnam through October 14 and sign a railway deal. It is the first official visit to Vietnam by a Chinese premier in 11 years.

·       U.S. and Philippine military forces will participate in the Sama Sama 2024 and Kamandag 8 drills through October 24.

·       Malaysia's parliament will convene and likely pass the Mufti Bill, which would empower religious figures to make edicts without parliamentary oversight.

·       Today is Health and Sports Day in Japan.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (September)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (September)

·       Singapore GDP Growth Rate Adv Q3

·       India WPI Food Index (September)/ WPI Fuel (September)/ WPI Inflation (September)/ WPI Manufacturing (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

·       South Korea Export Prices (September)/ Import Prices (September)

·       China Vehicle Sales (September)/ PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Foreign Minister Foreign Secretary Lammy travels to Beijing and Shanghai, China for meetings.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will visit Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE) and then he will travel to Germany. At SHAPE, Rutte will meet with Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), General Christopher Cavoli, and other senior officers. In the afternoon, NATO Secretary General will travel to Wiesbaden, where he will meet the German Minister of Defence, Boris Pistorius, and visit the site of NATO’s Security Assistance and Training – Ukraine (NSATU) command.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council will meet in Luxembourg. Ministers will discuss the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East.

·       The EU Environment Council will meet in Luxembourg.  The agenda includes approving the conclusions on preparations for the COP29 Meetings, the UN Convention on Biodiversity, and the Global Plastics Treaty.

·       NATO holds “Steadfast Noon” nuclear preparedness drills in the North Sea.

·       The 10th Annual Berlin Process Summit takes place in Berlin, Germany.  The event brings together representatives from Western Balkans and EU countries.

·       The EU-Kazakhstan Cooperation Council meets in Luxembourg.  The meeting will focus on It will then exchange views on political, economic and trade matters and cooperation (including internal reforms, rule of law and human rights, efforts to address sanction circumvention, cooperation facility, critical raw materials and sustainable connectivity). The delegations will also touch on regional and international developments and cooperation, Global Gateway Team Europe Initiatives and security.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The UK International Investment Summit, hosted by the UK Government, takes place in London. The aim of the Summit is to show “the UK is the best place in the world to do business.”  However, the summit comes two weeks before Prime Minister Keir Starmer releases his new budget, which is expected to call for significantly higher taxes on corporations and wealthy individuals.  On Thursday, P&O Ferries – which was prepared to roll-out a $1.4 billion port expansion in the UK as the showpiece of the conference, announced they were pulling out of the deal after Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner and Transport Minister Louise Haigh called the firm “rogue operators” and were boycotting using the firm.

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Swati Dhingra will speak on a panel at the Reserve Bank of India’s 90th Anniversary High-Level Conference in New Delhi, India.

·       Ireland Construction PMI (September)

·       Romania Industrial Production (August)/ Current Account (August)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (September)

·       Great Britain BoE Dhingra Speech

·       Poland Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account (August)

·       Turkey Auto Production (September)/ Auto Sales (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Nigerian Economic Summit will be held in Abuja. Nigeria’s finance minister Wale Edun and central bank governor Yemi Cardoso will be among the speakers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

Tuesday, October 15, 2024

Global

·       The G7 Tech and Digital Ministers meet in Cernobbio, Italy.

·        The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Yemen). In the afternoon, it is scheduled to hold a briefing on Colombia followed by consultations

·       The World Trade Organization (WTO) General Council meets in Geneva, Switzerland

·       The OECD’s Forum on Green Finance and Investment 2024 takes place in Paris, France.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler gives remarks virtually entitled “Career Opportunities and Diversity in Economics” at the Exploring Careers in Economics event hosted by the Federal Reserve.

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly speaks and participates in moderated conversation at event hosted by the New York University Stern School of Business in New York.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to participate in moderated conversation on the economic outlook and impact on small business with the Gathering Spot.

·       Canada Inflation Rate (September)/ CPI Median (September)/ Wholesale Sales Final (August)

·       USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (October)/ Redbook (October/12)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)/ NOPA Crush Report

·       Colombia Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Shanghai Cooperation Organization meets in Islamabad, Pakistan.  The agenda will focus on combating terrorism, enhancing security cooperation among states, and promoting economic collaboration through trade and investment initiatives.

·       Japanese political parties officially kick off campaigning in advance of the October 27 general election. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Japan Capacity Utilization (August)/ Industrial Production Final (August)/ BoJ Adachi Speech

·       India Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Kazakhstan GDP (September)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Services PMI (September)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (October/15)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU General Affairs Council will meet in Luxembourg.  Ministers will discuss EU-Swiss relations, and the fight against antisemitism.

·       The EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council (Energy) will meet in Luxembourg.  They will discuss energy prices, and the state of the energy union and REPowerEU.

·       The Second Accession Conference with Albania will meet in Luxembourg.

·        

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (September)/ ZEW Current Conditions (October)

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (August)/ Employment Change (August)/ Claimant Count Change (September)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (September)

·       Hungary Construction Output (August)/ Industrial Production Final (August)

·       France Inflation Rate Final (September)/ IEA Oil Market Report

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (September)

·       Spain Inflation Rate Final (September)

·       Euro Area ECB Bank Lending Survey/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (October)/ Industrial Production (August)

·       Poland Inflation Rate Final (September)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (August)

·       Serbia Building Permits (August)

·       Turkey Budget Balance (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q2/ Inflation Rate (September)

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (September)/ Wholesale Prices (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Africa Cyber Defense Forum, organized by the African Telecommunications Union, will take place in Kigali, Rwanda.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (August)/ SACCI Business Confidence (September)

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

Wednesday, October 16, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to meet for consultations on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO). In the afternoon, there will be a TCC meeting on United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA).

·       The International Energy Agency (IEA) releases its World Energy Outlook 2024 Report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (October/11)/ Export Prices (September)/ Import Prices (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/11)

·       Canada Housing Starts (September)/ Manufacturing Sales Final (August)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Hong Kong’s Chief Executive John Lee will deliver his 3rd annual policy address.  Lee is expected to focus on the economy after further curbing dissent earlier this year with the imposition of a local national security law known as Article 23.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Seiji Adachi gives a speech to business leaders in Kagawa, Japan.

·       New Zealand Inflation Rate Q3

·       Australia RBA Hunter Speech/ Westpac Leading Index (September)

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Japan Machinery Orders (August)

·       Philippines Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Remittances (August)

·       Thailand Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (October)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate (October)

·       India M3 Money Supply (October/04)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU-Gulf Cooperation Council Summit is held in Brussels. The summit will be co-chaired by the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, and the Emir of Qatar, H.H. Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, as the rotating President of the GCC.  The summit is an opportunity for the EU to develop a closer partnership with the GCC and its member states (the United Arab Emirates, the Kingdom of Bahrain, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the Sultanate of Oman, the State of Qatar, and the State of Kuwait).

·       The 76th Frankfurt Book Fair takes place through October 20 in Frankfurt, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a speech at the official dinner of Banka Slovenije in Ljubljana, Slovenia.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives a speech at Bocconi University in Milan, Italy.

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (September)/ PPI Input & Output (September)/ Retail Price Index (September)

·       Italy Inflation Rate Final (September)

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (August)

·       Euro Area ECB Buch Speech/ ECB President Lagarde Speech/ European Council

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (September)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (September)

·       Russia PPI (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Kenya’s Senate will debate whether to dismiss Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua after the National Assembly voted to impeach him. Gachagua has denied all 11 charges against him, which include enriching himself and stirring ethnic hatred.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Retail Sales (August)

Thursday, October 17, 2024

Global

·       G7 Defense Ministers meet in Napoli, Italy. 

·       The BRICS Business Forum and Business Council meets in Moscow, Russia.  Russian President Vladimir Putin will speak at the Forum.

·       IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva will give a speech on the outlook for the global economy and policy priorities in advance of the IMF/World Bank meetings the following week in Washington, D.C.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee gives welcome remarks before the Fifth Annual Exploring Career Pathways in Economics and Related Fields Conference.

·       Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (August)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (October/12)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (October)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (October/05)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (October)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (October)/ Industrial Production (September)/ Capacity Utilization (September)/ Manufacturing Production (September)/ Business Inventories (August)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (October)/ EIA Natural Gas & Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/11)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/16)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (August)/ Foreign Bond Investment (August)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (August)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/16)

·       Brazil Business Confidence (October)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Tertiary Industry Index (August)

·       Australia Employment Change (September)/ RBA Bulletin/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Participation Rate (September)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (September)/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       India Passenger Vehicles Sales (September)

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Council will meet in Brussels.  EU leaders will discuss Ukraine, the Middle East, competitiveness, migration, and general foreign affairs.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU trade ministers through October 18 in Budapest, Hungary. 

·       France and Ukraine will hold a Nuclear Safety Conference in Paris, France.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank meets to discuss and set interest rates.  A press conference will follow.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives speaks via video message on "Supervisory expectations on public cloud usage by European Central Bank (ECB)" at KPMG Cloud Conference 2024 "Profitable Scaling: The Cloud Journey accelerates" in Frankfurt, Germany.  Later, she participates on a panel discussion at the “Financial and Regulatory Outlook Conference 2024: A New Age of Finance” organized by Oliver Wyman in Rome, Italy.

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (August)/ Inflation Rate Final (September)/ CPI Final (September)/ Core Inflation Rate Final (September)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (September)

·       Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (September)

·       Italy Balance of Trade (August)

·       Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing & Lending Rate (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/11)

·       Great Britain BoE Woods Speech

·       Belarus GDP (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Oman M2 Money Supply (August)/ Total Credit (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ M3 Money Supply (September)

Friday, October 18, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is expected to vote on a draft resolution on Haiti sanctions.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Joe Biden will visit Germany.  He had been scheduled to visit last week but had to cancel due to Hurricane Milton.  The previously scheduled visit was going to be a formal state visit – something no US President has enjoyed in over 40 years.  This visit is now being downgraded to a simple one-day visit.  Additionally, there was going to be a meeting of NATO leaders chaired by Biden at Ramstein Air Base to discuss the situation in Ukraine.  That meeting will not be rescheduled for this visit.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives remarks entitled “Decentralized Finance” at the Nineteenth Annual Vienna Macroeconomics Workshop in Vienna, Austria.

·       USA Building Permits Prel (September)/ Housing Starts (September)/ Housing Starts (September)/Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/18)

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (August)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (September)/ Leading Indicator (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The APEC Finance Ministerial Meeting is held in Lima, Peru.

·       ASEAN’s AIPA General Assembly meets in Vientiane.

·       Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will present the annual budget.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (September)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (October/04)/ Deposit Growth (October/04)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/11)

·       Sri Lanka Unemployment Rate Q2

·       Japan Inflation Rate (September)/ Foreign Bond Investment (October/12)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (October/12)

·       China House Price Index (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q3/ NBS Press Conference

·       Malaysia GDP Growth Rate Prel Q3/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Retail Sales (September)/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (September)

·       Euro Area Current Account (August)/ Construction Output (August)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (August)/ Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Italy Construction Output (August)/ Current Account (August)

·       Serbia Current Account (August)

·       Slovakia Current Account (August)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (July) / Balance of Trade (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The IMF’s executive board will meet for the first review of Ethiopia’s $3.4 billion financing program.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (September)/ Building Permits (August)

·       Ghana PPI (September)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (September)

Saturday, October 19, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz meets with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul, Turkey. The two leaders will discuss Ukraine and the Middle East.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 20, 2024

Global

·       The BRICS 1st Climate Congress will be held in Sochi, Russia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indonesia’s new president, Prabowa Sunianto, will be sworn into office. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (September)

·       China FDI (YTD) (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Moldova holds presidential elections and a vote on a constitutional referendum on EU integration. There are substantial fears Russia will seek to disrupt the elections in an attempt to block a yes vote on joining the EU.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iraq holds regional elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.