Recommended Weekend Reads
How Will the U.S. Election Impact the Rest of the World? The BRICS’ Growing Power and Influence and the Geopolitics of Port Security in the Americas
September 27 - 29, 2024
Please find below our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend. And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.
Geopolitics & the U.S. Elections
The Global Impact of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Elections Center for Strategic and International Studies
The audience for the U.S. presidential election is global and has a global impact. The election takes place at a moment when the demands of two wars in Europe and the Middle East, China’s assertiveness, and coalitions of autocratic leaders are putting unprecedented stress on the rules-based international order. These developments, as much as the election, are compelling changes in how global leaders look at their future with the United States regardless of signals of policy continuity or discontinuity from a Harris or Trump presidency. This report provides concise analysis and predictions covering the globe.
Why US-China ties will worsen regardless of the US vote Matt Gertken/Hinrich Foundation
BCA Research’s Chief Strategist Matt Gertken argues the upcoming US elections will not determine the course of US-China relations. Regardless of which party wins the elections, the superpower rivalry is set to deepen as national and economic security competition intensifies. Both Washington and Beijing are doubling down on antagonism, and trade ties will worsen in the foreseeable future.
The Growing Influence of the BRICS
BRICS Considering Petro-Yuan in next de-dollarization attempt OMFIF
Unlike the BRICS Summit in Johannesburg in 2023, which was waved off by Western observers as no real threat to the dollar, October’s summit in Kazan, Russia, is set to be ground-breaking for two reasons. First, there have been major changes since the last summit. BRICS – comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – has been expanded by five important new members: Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iran, Egypt and Ethiopia. Saudi Arabia, the world’s main supplier of petrol, has also joined Project mBridge, the Bank for International Settlements’ digital currency arrangement. The country has made comments about considering alternatives to the present dollar-based oil payments system and being open to using the Petro-Yuan for oil settlements. Second, there is Russia, a country at war with Ukraine and engaging in economic conflict against the whole Western alliance. It will use the Kazan summit as a means to push BRICS members to join this endeavor. Russia is planning a new denomination for oil, – the Petro-Yuan – its own mBridge system to pay for oil and even a common BRICS currency to reduce dependence on the dollar.
The Battle for the BRICS: Why the Future of the Bloc Will Shape Global Order Foreign Affairs
In late October, the group of countries known as the BRICS will convene in the Russian city of Kazan for its annual summit. The meeting is set to be a moment of triumph for its host, Russian President Vladimir Putin, who will preside over this gathering of an increasingly hefty bloc even as he prosecutes his brutal war in Ukraine. The group’s acronym comes from its first five members—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—but it has now grown to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia also participates in the group’s activities, but it has not formally joined. Together, these ten countries represent 35.6 percent of global GDP in purchasing power parity terms (more than the G-7’s 30.3 percent) and 45 percent of the world’s population (the G-7 represents less than ten percent). In the coming years, BRICS is likely to expand further, with more than 40 countries expressing interest in joining, including emerging powers such as Indonesia.
As the United States and its allies are less able to unilaterally shape the global order, many countries are seeking to boost their own autonomy by courting alternative centers of power. Unable or unwilling to join the exclusive clubs of the United States and its junior partners, such as the G-7 or U.S.-led military blocs, and increasingly frustrated by the global financial institutions underpinned by the United States, such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, these countries are keen to expand their options and establish ties with non-American initiatives and organizations. BRICS stands out among such initiatives as the most significant, relevant, and potentially influential.
Expansion of BRICS: A quest for greater global influence? European Parliament Think Tank
The official Think Tank of the European Parliament explains who the new members of the BRICS are and what this means. The BRICS decision to open the door to new members was taken at its Johannesburg summit in August 2023, sparking a debate about its growing international influence. According to estimates, BRICS+, as the organization has been informally called since its expansion, now accounts for 37.3 % of world GDP, or more than half as much as the EU (14.5 %). However, besides an increase in economic power the new members could bring potential conflicts (Saudi Arabia/Iran or Egypt/Ethiopia) into the group, making the reaching of consensus on common political positions more difficult. Since the new members would only contribute roughly 4 % to the group's cumulative GDP, the significance of the expansion should be seen beyond the purely economic effect, in the form of greater influence for the group and for developing countries as a whole within international organizations such as the United Nations, the World Trade Organization and the Bretton Woods institutions.
The Battle for the BRICS: Why the Future of the Bloc Will Shape Global Order Foreign Affairs
In late October, the group of countries known as the BRICS will convene in the Russian city of Kazan for its annual summit. The meeting is set to be a moment of triumph for its host, Russian President Vladimir Putin, who will preside over this gathering of an increasingly hefty bloc even as he prosecutes his brutal war in Ukraine. The group’s acronym comes from its first five members—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—but it has now grown to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia also participates in the group’s activities, but it has not formally joined. Together, these ten countries represent 35.6 percent of global GDP in purchasing power parity terms (more than the G-7’s 30.3 percent) and 45 percent of the world’s population (the G-7 represents less than ten percent). In the coming years, BRICS is likely to expand further, with more than 40 countries expressing interest in joining, including emerging powers such as Indonesia.
Latin America
Claudia Sheinbaum and the Shadow of AMLO Americas Quarterly Podcast
Claudia Sheinbaum will take office as Mexico’s new president next week, on October 1, 2024. Often described as a technocrat, she also supports some of current President AMLO’s more controversial policies, such as the judicial reform that was just approved. In this episode, Vanessa Rubio, a professor at the London School of Economics and a former senator and deputy minister, shares what she expects from Sheinbaum’s government. Rubio argues her administration will take shape as a new blend—one that could be deemed “techno-populist.”
The Geopolitics of Port Security in the Americas Center for Strategic and International Studies Americas Program
“[T]he truth of the matter is that the People’s Republic of China is rapidly filling the vacuum created by the departure of American military forces from the isthmus [of Panama]. . . .Their presence adds to the danger of using the Colon Free Zone to purchase restricted technology with dual civilian-military use.” This sentiment would not seem out of place in a contemporary discussion of Chinese strategic advances in the Western Hemisphere. It is, in fact, more than two decades old, coming from the testimony of Dr. Tomas Cabal, then professor of business at the University of Panama, who appeared before the U.S. House Subcommittee on Domestic and International Monetary Policy on December 7, 1999.
Alternative Energy
New Battery Designs Could Lead to Gains in Power and Capacity The Economist
In their quest to build a better battery, researchers have blazed a trail through the elements of the periodic table. The earliest prototype cells ran on nickel and cadmium; successors have used everything from zinc and iron to sodium and lead. Instead of the other long-overshadowed components of cells. Those efforts are starting to pay off and several companies are looking to further radically improve the battery as we know it.