Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis, as well as book recommendations, travel observations, and cultural experiences - all of which we hope will be of interest to you.

Francis Kelly 6/11/24 Francis Kelly 6/11/24

Minnesota Bankers Association 2024 Summit

Brainerd, Minnesota

June 10 -11 2024

Bankers in the Midwest are, in our view, particularly well-positioned to take advantage of the nearly $1 trillion in Federal spending aimed at encouraging semiconductor manufacturing, alternative energy development, and critical mineral mining. Minnesota is a fantastic example of this opportunity: Mineral rich, a beautiful place to live, great educational facilities, and a cost of living that most folks on either Coast would love to have.

It was my great pleasure to address the Minnesota Bankers Association on the geopolitics driving the race for global tech dominance and development. It was a wonderful conversation, and I’m hoping it gave the Minnesota Bankers Association members food for thought on how they can help drive this investment to their state. You can see my presentation to them below.

Francis Kelly 6/9/24 Francis Kelly 6/9/24

The Global Week Ahead

June 9 - 16, 2024

Despite the summer season, the upcoming week will significantly shape the trajectory of various geopolitical challenges in the coming months. The G7 summit, to be held in Italy, is a pivotal event where leaders will delve into critical issues such as Ukraine, Gaza, and climate change. Under the leadership of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, the summit has extended invitations to African and other global leaders, amplifying its importance.

Meanwhile, world leaders will gather in Switzerland for the Summit on Peace in Ukraine. The meeting seeks to develop "a common understanding of a path forward toward a just and lasting peace in Ukraine." Russia has not been invited, and China says it will not participate.

Simultaneously, the urgency of the situation in the Middle East is underscored by the King of Jordan's call for an immediate meeting on facilitating aid to Gaza. This high-level gathering, to be attended by regional leaders, the UN Secretary-General, and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, highlights the pressing need for humanitarian assistance in the region.

Amidst these developments, the BRICS foreign ministers are set to meet in Russia. Notably, the Turkish foreign minister's attendance, as Turkey explores the possibility of joining the BRICS, could mark a significant shift in global alliances. This meeting also marks the first BRICS gathering since Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates became members, adding to its significance.

On the global economic radar screen this week, the Federal Reserve meets to discuss interest rates. Seeing the CPI release on Wednesday, markets will be keenly focused on what Fed Chair Jay Powell says during his press conference to indicate any hope for a rate cut this year. The week ends with the University of Michigan consumer survey on Friday.

In Asia, the Bank of Japan meets on Friday to discuss rates. While rates are unlikely to change, any guidance from the BoJ will be essential to listen to. Also, China's inflation data will be out on Wednesday this week.

Finally, quite a few speeches are being given by European Central Bank board members that are worth watching. The UK GDP is coming out on Wednesday.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events of note for the week ahead:

Sunday, June 9, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Indian BJP-led National Democratic Alliance will officially form a new government. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will begin naming members of his cabinet.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Vehicle Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Parliamentary elections conclude, having begun on June 6.

· Bulgaria holds snap parliamentary elections.

· Belgium holds parliamentary (all 150 members of the Chamber of Representatives) and regional elections.

· Switzerland holds a referendum vote on four issues (Premium Relief Initiative, Cost-Brake Initiative, Initiative for Freedom and Physical Integrity, Federal Act on Secure Electricity Supply from Renewable Energy Sources).

· The Republic of South Ossetia holds parliamentary elections.

· San Marino holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is National Heroes Day in Uganda, honoring the estimated 500,000 people who died in the Uganda Bush War that took place between 1981 and 1986.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 10, 2024

Global

· BRICs Foreign Ministers will meet in Nizhny Novgorod, Russia, through June 11. The meeting is in preparation for the BRICS Leaders Meeting being held October 22-24 in Russia. his will be the group's first regular meeting since BRICS expanded this year to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. Foreign ministers from some non-BRICS members were invited, too, most notably Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, who will attend.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on UNOCA/LRA, followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the 1267/1989/2253 Committee.

· The UN’s 3rd Dushanbe Water Action Decade Conference will be held in Dushanbe, Republic of Tajikistan. Li Junhua, USG of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), will deliver opening and closing remarks as a co-chair and will also deliver remarks at the Interactive Dialogue 5 on the Water Action Decade.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will travel to Egypt, Israel, Jordan, and Qatar from June 10-12, 2024. The Secretary will discuss with partners the need to reach a ceasefire agreement that secures the release of all hostages.

· Mexican President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum’s transition team official begins working, and a number of key personnel appointments are expected to be announced.

· US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will travel to New Delhi to for meetings.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· El Salvador Inflation Rate YoY MAY

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Israel to push for a cease-fire in Gaza.

· The U.S. and Japan hold their inaugural meeting of the Defense Industrial Cooperation, Acquisition, and Sustainment Forum (DICAS) in Tokyo. Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment William LaPlante and Masaki Fukasawa, commissioner of Japan's Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics Agency, meet with representatives from American and Japanese defense contractors to discuss co-production of missiles and ship repair of U.S. Navy ships at Japanese private shipyards.

· The U.S. and South Korea will hold the third meeting of the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) in Seoul to discuss further ways to deter North Korea's nuclear threat. Established under the Washington Declaration when presidents Joe Biden and Yoon Suk Yeol met in April last year, the NCG arranged the Ohio-class nuclear ballistic missile submarine USS Kentucky's port call to Busan last June, the first such visit by a ballistic missile submarine in four decades.

· The Korea-Latin America Future Cooperation Forum will begin in Seoul, South Korea.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Malaysia Industrial Production YoY APR/ Unemployment Rate APR

· Japan Eco Watchers Survey Current MAY

· Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves MAY

· Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU is expected to announce its decision on whether to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.

· Poland will hold a National Security Council meeting over border tensions with Belarus.

· Chancellor Olaf Scholz receives Chile President Gabriel Boric with military honors, followed by a press conference.

· Today is Portugal Day, also known as “Dia de Portugal, de Camões e das Comunidades Portuguesas.” The day commemorates the death of Luís de Camões who is recognized as the country’s greatest nation icon. He is most known for his poem which narrates the story of Portuguese explorations in the 15th century.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Romania Balance of Trade APR

· Hungary Inflation Rate YoY MAY

· Slovakia Industrial Production YoY APR

· Switzerland Consumer Confidence MAY

· Turkey Industrial Production YoY APR/ Unemployment Rate APR/ Current Account APR/ Participation Rate APR

· Italy Industrial Production YoY APR

· Slovenia Industrial Production YoY APR

· Greece Inflation Rate YoY MAY

· Ukraine Inflation Rate YoY MAY

· Belarus Inflation Rate YoY MAY

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Iran’s Guardian Council will announce the official candidates allowed to run for president in the wake of the June 28 death of President Ebrahim Raisi. Iranian state media have reported that the speaker of parliament, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, a former Revolutionary Guards commander who lost his bid in two previous presidential polls, is among the candidates. Other well-known figures who have signed up include hardline former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and former Speaker Ali Larijani, a prominent conservative and ally of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

· Iraqi Kurdistan holds regional elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production YoY APR

· Jordan Inflation Rate YoY MAY

· Israel Consumer Confidence MAY

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt Inflation Rate YoY MAY

· Tanzania Inflation Rate YoY MAY

Tuesday, June 11, 2024

Global

· UN Secretary-General António Guterres will attend a High-Level Conference on Gaza. The “Call for Action: Urgent Humanitarian Aid for Gaza” conference will be held at the invitation of His Majesty King Abdullah II, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, and the Secretary-General of the United Nations.

· OPEC Releases its Monthly Oil Market Report.

The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (IRMCT). In the afternoon, the Security Council is expected to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Syria).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Trade Representative Katherine Tai travels to Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan through June 15.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index MAY/ Redbook YoY JUN/08/ API Crude Oil Stock Change JUN/07

· Brazil Inflation Rate YoY MAY

· Mexico Industrial Production YoY APR

· Canada Building Permits MoM APR

· Colombia Inflation Rate YoY MAY

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Current Account APR

· Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade APR

· Australia NAB Business Confidence MAY

· Indonesia Retail Sales YoY APR

· Malaysia Retail Sales YoY APR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Ukraine Recovery Conference begins in Berlin, Germany, and runs through June 12. International leaders will attend the conference, which is being hosted by the German Foreign Office and the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ). The URC2024 is a continuation of the annual series of high-level political events dedicated to the swift recovery and long-term reconstruction of Ukraine since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine. It is also the first Ukraine Recovery Conference hosted in an EU member state and comes at a critical time for Ukraine. The conference will reflect the Lugano Principles, including a “whole of society” approach to recovery through the meaningful participation of a broad range of stakeholders.

· NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will visit Riga, Latvia. He will participate in the B9 Summit, hosted by the President of Latvia, Edgars Rinkēvičs, the President of Romania, Klaus Iohannis, and the President of Poland, Andrzej Duda.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board Member Claudia Buch gives the opening keynote speech at the 2024 Annual ECB Banking Supervision Research Conference in Frankfurt. ECB Board Member Frank Elderson will give the dinner speech.

· ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a fireside chat at the Banking and Payments Federation Ireland National Conference in Dublin.

· Great Britain Unemployment Rate APR/ HMRC Payrolls Change MAY

· Turkey Retail Sales YoY APR

· Russia Balance of Trade APR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Jordan will host an International Conference on Humanitarian Aid to Gaza. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will participate as will the UN Secretary General and other leaders.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Qatar Balance of Trade APR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Manufacturing Production YoY APR

Wednesday, June 12, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold s briefing on North Korea.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the commemoration of the Chaco Armistice, a national holiday in Paraguay commemorating the end of the Chaco War between Paraguay and Bolivia in the 1930s. .

Economic Reports/Events –

· The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee meets on the economy and interest rates. Fed Chair Jay Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m.

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index JUN/07/ Inflation Rate YoY MAY/ CPI MAY/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change JUN/07/ Consumer Inflation Expectations MAY/ WASDE Report/ / FOMC Economic Projections/ Monthly Budget Statement MAY/ Interest Rate Projection – Current/

· Uruguay Industrial Production YoY APR

· Ecuador Balance of Trade APR

· Peru Balance of Trade APR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Unemployment Rate MAY

· Japan PPI YoY MAY/ Machine Tool Orders YoY MAY

· China Inflation Rate YoY MAY/ PPI YoY MAY

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence MAY/ M3 Money Supply YoY MAY/31

· Thailand Interest Rate Decision

· India Industrial Production YoY APR/ Inflation Rate YoY MAY/ Manufacturing Production YoY APR

· Pakistan Consumer Confidence MAY

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Labor Leader Keir Starmer participate in their second debate on Sky News.

· Russian FM Lavrov meets Cuban counterpart Bruno Eduardo Rodríguez Parrilla on the sidelines of the BRICS Foreign Minister Meeting.

· Today is Peace Day in Kosovo, celebrating the ceasefire in the Kosovo War in 1999.

· Today is Russia Day, a national holiday in Russia. Originally, the holiday was known as the Russia Independence Day celebrating the disintegration of the Soviet Union. President Putin changed the name and meaning of the day.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board Member Anneli Tuominen will participate in a panel discussion at the 2024 Bundesbank Symposium in Frankfurt. Later in the day, ECB Board Member Claudia Buch will speak.

· ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel will testify before the Finance Committee of the German Bundestag in Berlin.

· ECB Board Vice President Luis de Guindos will give remarks and participate in a Q&A at MNI Connect event in London.

· ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul will give a keynote speech at the Central Banking's Summer Meetings in London.

· Germany Inflation Rate YoY Final MAY/ Current Account APR

· Romania Inflation Rate YoY MAY

· Great Britain GDP YoY APR/ Goods Trade Balance APR/ Balance of Trade APR/ Industrial & Manufacturing Production YoY APR/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker MAY

· Slovakia Construction Output YoY APR

· Russia Inflation Rate YoY MAY

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The African Export-Import Bank annual meetings and the AfriCaribbean Trade and Investment Forum will be held in Nassau, The Bahamas, under the theme ‘Owning Our Destiny: Economic Prosperity on the Platform of Global Africa.’

Economic Reports/Events –

· Angola Inflation Rate YoY MAY

· Ethiopia Inflation Rate YoY MAY

· Mozambique GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1

Thursday, June 13, 2024

Global

· The G7 Leaders’ Summit begins in Apulia, Italy, and goes through June 14. This year the G7 is chaired by Italy and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. The main issues to be addressed during the six working sessions are: Africa, climate change and development, the ongoing situation in the Middle East, Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, migration, Indo-Pacific/economic security, artificial intelligence, and energy/Africa and the Mediterranean region, The Italian presidency has also invited leaders from 12 countries and 5 international organizations to take part in some working sessions during the summit. African leaders from Kenya, Algeria, Egypt, South Africa, and Tunisia will attend.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing in the morning on the Middle East followed by consultations (Yemen). In the afternoon, the Security Council is expected to hold a briefing on 1591 Committee, followed by consultations on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams will moderate a discussion with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen before the Economic Club of New York.

· US Export Sales, PPI (May), Initial Jobless Claims (June 1), EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (June 7)

· Brazil Retail Sales (April)

· Argentina Inflation ((May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY MAY

· Japan BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ Q2/ Foreign Bond Investment JUN/08/ Stock Investment by Foreigners JUN/08

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index JUN/ Employment Change MAY/ Unemployment Rate MAY/ Participation Rate MAY

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment MAR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NATO Defense Ministers will meet in Brussels and participate in the NATO-Ukraine Council.

· NATO holds Tiger Meet 2024, a NATO aircraft exercise in Schleswig Air Base Germany.

· The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council meets in Brussels. The presidency will inform ministers about the state of play of a legislative proposal to combat child sexual abuse. The proposed EU law would make it mandatory for internet companies to alert the authorities about online child sexual abuse on their platforms. A planned EU center would support authorities acting on reports of child sexual abuse and collect and share expertise and best practices in prevention and victim support. Ministers will also discuss the extension of the temporary protection for persons having fled from Ukraine after the start of the war. This protection – which was activated on 4 March 2022 – allows displaced persons from Ukraine to reside in the EU and to enjoy rights related to, for instance, residence and medical assistance across the EU. It was initially granted for one year and has been extended until 4 March 2025.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Great Britain RICS House Price Balance MAY

· Germany Wholesale Prices (May)

· Spain Inflation (May)

· Eurozone Industrial Production (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey FX Reserves (June 7)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Gold Production (April), Mining Production (April)

Friday, June 14, 2024

Global

The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the maintenance of international peace and security. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US celebrates Flag Day, commemorating the day in 1777 when the Second Continental Congress adopted the first US national flag.

· Today is Falkland Islands Liberation Day, celebrating the day in 1982 when the British military liberated the island from Argentine military occupation.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook will give a speech entitled “Lessons from the American Economic Association Summer Program” at the Celebrating 50 Years of the American Economic Association Summer Program, Washington, D.C.

· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee to participate in a fireside chat before the Iowa Farm Bureau Economic Summit in Des Moines, Iowa.

· US Export Prices and Import Prices (May), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (June), Michigan Inflation Expectations (June), Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (June 14)

· Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (April)

· Canada Manufacturing Sales & Wholesale Sales (April), New Motor Vehicle Sales (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China New Yuan Loans (May), M2 Money Supply (May), Outstanding Loan Growth (May), Total Social Financing (May)

· Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision, Japan Capacity Utilization (April), Industrial Production (April), Tertiary Industry Index (April)

· South Korea Import/Export Prices (May)

· India Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May), WPI Food Index (May), WPI Fuel Index (May), WPI Inflation (May), WPI Manufacturing (May)

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)

· Singapore Unemployment (Q1)

· Indonesia Car Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Justice) meets in Brussels. Ministers will hold two policy debates. The first debate touches on a proposed regulation that aims to facilitate the recognition in a member state of the parenthood of a child that has been established in another member state. The exchange will, in particular, address the recognition of surrogacy parenthood. A second debate addresses the proposed update of a directive from 2011 on combating the sexual abuse and sexual exploitation of children and child pornography. The goal is to expand the definitions of these offenses and to introduce higher penalties and more specific requirements for prevention and assistance to victims.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a speech at the 30th Dubrovnik Economic Conference in Dubrovnik.

· ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane will participate on panel at the 30th Dubrovnik Economic Conference in Dubrovnik.

· ECB Board Vice President Luis de Guindos participates in the Award ceremony of the Carlos V European Prize to Mr. Mario Draghi.

· ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a virtual meeting of the European Fiscal Board.

· ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a speech at the Lions Club Dortmund in Dortmund, Germany.

· France Inflation (May)

· Italy Balance of Trade (April)

· Eurozone Balance of Trade (April)

· Russia Inflation (May), GDP (Q1)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Budget Balance (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (April & May)

Saturday, June 15, 2024

Global

· Switzerland will host a Summit on Peace in Ukraine in Bürgenstock. The goal of the meeting is to bring heads of states together to develop “a common understanding of a path forward toward a just and lasting peace in Ukraine.” The summit, in which more than 108 countries will be represented, will build on broad international support for Ukrainian President Zelensky’s peace proposals, which include a full withdrawal of Russian troops. Moscow has not been invited, and China says it will not participate.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· China’s coastguard law, regulations on the Administrative Law Enforcement Procedures for Coast Guard Agencies, goes into force. The law could and likely will lead to direct military confrontation with Philippine, US, and other shipping moving through waters China is claiming as their own and which is disputed by the Philippines and other nations.

· Today is National Salvation Day in Azerbaijan. The day commemorates the return to power of the national leader, Heydar Aliyev, to Baku in 1993 helping to end political chaos and the risk of civil war.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China FDI (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 16, 2024

Global

· The Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha (one of the two main holidays celebrated in Islam) is celebrated through June 20.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing Significant to Report

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Inflation (May), Wholesale Rate (May), Wholesale Prices (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· South Africa’s new Parliament will convene as coalition negotiations continue to form a new government.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 6/8/24 Francis Kelly 6/8/24

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

June 10 - 14, 2024

This coming week will be another busy week for the financial regulatory world in Washington. Congress is working its way through the 2025 appropriations process, and that means we will see SEC Chair Gary Gensler and CFTC Chair Rostin Benham testifying in defense of their budgetary requests before the Senate Appropriations Committee. All this is important, but our view is there is little chance Congress will get all the funding bills done before the November election and or the end of the year, punting it to the new Congress in January.

But the big event this week will be in the House Financial Services Committee. Committee Chair Patrick McHenry (R-NC) has called for a hearing to examine the recent independent investigatory report on the FDIC's out-of-control culture under FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg. While Gruenberg has said he will resign as soon as the Senate confirms a replacement, he also knows there is virtually no chance of that happening by the end of this year. Now, incredibly, he is refusing to show up to testify before the Financial Services Committee. In his place, two FDIC Directors, Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu and FDIC Director Jonathan McKernan, along with the two external lawyers who conducted the investigation, will testify.

This is an extraordinary event in many ways. Many observers we have spoken to cannot remember seeing any agency or department head who has been shown to both tolerate such a poisonous culture and was also explicitly engaged in it defy calls to step down immediately and now refuse to answer questions from the congressional committee with direct oversight of his agency. In a word, Gruenberg seems to have gone rogue. Expect a lot of fireworks this week and massive new pressure for him to step down immediately.

Both the Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee will host the annual "Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Semi-Annual Report to Congress" Events. CFPB Director Rohit Chopra, who is also an FDIC Director, will be the key witness at both hearings. Given the context, he will likely face numerous questions about Gruenberg's situation.

Below is a complete listing of what is happening at the financial regulatory agencies this week and in Congress. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

Wednesday, June 12, 9:45 a.m. - The Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee holds a hearing on "The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's Semi-Annual Report to Congress." CFPB Director Rohit Chopra will testify.
Wednesday. June 12, 10:00 a.m. - The Senate Finance Committee holds a hearing on "Youth Residential Treatment Facilities: Examining Failures and Evaluating Solutions."
Wednesday, June 12, 10:00 a.m.: The Senate Budget Committee will hold a hearing on "Making Wall Street Pay Its Fair Share: Raising Revenue, Strengthening Our Economy."
Thursday, June 13, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Financial Services and General Government will hold a hearing “A Review of the President’s Fiscal Year 2025 Budget Requests for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.” SEC Chair Gary Gensler and CFTC Chair Rostin Benham will testify.

House of Representatives

Wednesday, June 12, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing on "Oversight of the FDIC's Failed Leadership and Toxic Workplace Culture." Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu, FDIC Director Jonathan McKernan, and two partners from Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton, the law firm that conducted the inquiry into the agency’s workplace troubles, are scheduled to testify. FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg is refusing to testify.
Thursday, June 13, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing “The Semi-Annual Report of the Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection.” CFPB Director Rohit Chopra will testify.
Thursday, June 13, 10:00 a.m. – The House Budget Committee will hold a hearing on “Medicare and Social Security: Examining Solvency and Impact to the Federal Budget.” Paul Spitalnick, Chief Actuary for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, and Stephen Goss, Chief Actuary for the Social Security Administration, will testify.

Joint Committees

Wednesday, June 12, 3:00 p.m.: The Joint Economic Committee will hold a hearing on "Made in America: The Boom in U.S. Manufacturing Investment."

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

Tuesday & Wednesday, June 11-12 – The Federal Open Market Committee holds a closed meeting to discuss the economy and interest rates. There will be a press conference held by Fed Chair Jay Powell on June 12 at 2:30 p.m.

U.S. Treasury Department

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

Thursday, June 13, 1:00 p.m. - The Housing and Urban Development Department will hold a virtual meeting of the Housing Counseling Federal Advisory Committee for presentations and discussion among HCFAC members.

Securities and Exchange Commission

Thursday, June 13, 10:00 a.m. – SEC Chair Gary Gensler will testify before The Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Financial Services and General Government will hold a hearing “A Review of the President’s Fiscal Year 2025 Budget Requests for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.”
Thursday, June 13, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

Thursday, June 13, 10:00 a.m. – CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam will testify before The Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Financial Services and General Government will hold a hearing “A Review of the President’s Fiscal Year 2025 Budget Requests for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.”

FINRA

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

Thursday, June 12, 10:00 a.m. – FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg has been called to testify (and is refusing to attend) the House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing entitled "Oversight of the FDIC's Failed Leadership and Toxic Workplace Culture." Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu, FDIC Director Jonathan McKernan and two partners from Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton, the law firm that conducted the inquiry into the agency’s workplace troubles, are scheduled to testify.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

Wednesday, June 12, 10:00 a.m. – Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu will testify before the House Financial Services Committee at a hearing entitled "Oversight of the FDIC's Failed Leadership and Toxic Workplace Culture." Also testifying will be FDIC Director Jonathan McKernan and two partners from Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton, the law firm that conducted the inquiry into the agency’s workplace troubles, are scheduled to testify.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

Thursday, June 13, 10:00 a.m. – The Farm Credit Administration holds a meeting for a quarterly report on economic conditions and farm credit system condition and performance and a semiannual report on Office of Examination operations.

The Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council

Wednesday, June 12, 10:00 a.m. – The Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council holds a virtual meeting of the Appraisal Subcommittee for FY2024 ASC budget reprogramming request and FY2024 notice of funding availability for the Appraisal Foundation.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

Monday, June 10, 2:00 p.m. – The World Bank and The Atlantic Council hold a discussion on "From competition to competitiveness: Unlocking growth and productivity in Latin America and the Caribbean." Participants include World Bank Chief Economist for Latin America and the Caribbean William Maloney, World Bank Deputy Chief Economist for Latin America and the Caribbean Marcela Melendez, Andrea Budelmann, Partner at Butelmann Consultores, Maria-Leticia Ossa Daza, Partner at Paul Weiss, Juan Carlos Lopez , Chief correspondent at CNN en Espanol, and Santiago Levy , Former deputy minister of the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit of Mexico and Brookings Institution nonresident senior fellow will speak.

North American Securities Administrators Association

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

Tuesday & Wednesday, June 11 -12 – SIFMA holds its Diversity and Inclusion Leadership Summit in New York.
Tuesday – Friday, June 11 – 14 – The American Bankers Association holds its Risk and Compliance Conference in Seattle, Washington.
Tuesday, June 11, 10:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance holds an online event, “Peru’s Economic and Policy Outlook.” The event will be conducted in Spanish.

Think Tanks and Other Events

·Tuesday, June 11, 9:30 a.m. – The Bipartisan Policy Center's Center for Housing Policy holds its 2024 Summit on Housing Supply Solutions.
Tuesday, June 11, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a virtual discussion on "China's Experience of Promoting Venture Capital Investment."
Friday, June 14, 9:30 a.m. – The Brookings Institution holds a conference on "The Federal Reserve's Review of Its Monetary Policy Framework." Former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke, senior economic studies fellow at the Brookings Institution, delivers welcoming remarks for an afternoon session. Also, Former Federal Reserve Vice Chair Donald Kohn, chair in international economics and senior economic studies fellow at the Brookings Institution, participates in a panel discussion

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 6/7/24 Francis Kelly 6/7/24

Maryland & Virginia Bankers Association Annual Convention

Amelia Island, Georgia

June 3, 2024 - Who doesn’t like going to Amelia Island? What a wonderful venue, only surpassed by the 500 bankers from Maryland and Virginia who are dedicated to the growth and security of their clients. The speakers were superb - and I was honored to follow Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan. You can access my presentation below.

Francis Kelly 6/7/24 Francis Kelly 6/7/24

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

June 3 - 7, 2024

It was 90 years ago this week that President Franklin Roosevelt established the Securities and Exchange Commission. The SEC will celebrate the historic event on Wednesday with a gathering of former SEC Chairs in Washington.

We will also be watching this week as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu take part, on behalf of the Financial Stability Oversight Council FSOC) in a Brookings Institution conference entitled "Artificial Intelligence & Financial Stability.” The development of AI is of growing concern to financial regulators on a number of fronts and this conference and the high-level engagement of the Treasury Secretary and Head of the OCC are good examples of how high-level that concern has gotten recently.

Looking back on the last week, the US Supreme Court handed down an important (and unanimous) decision that rejected a broad approach to exempting national banks from state regulations. The decision requires courts to take a “nuanced” approach to federal laws when coming in conflict with state laws.

Also last week, House Financial Services Committee Chair Patrick McHenry (R-NC) announced he will hold a hearing on the scandals at the FDIC. He intends to call FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg up to testify before the full committee where he will face renewed calls to step down immediately (Gruenberg has steadfastly said he is staying until a replacement is nominated and confirmed by the US Senate, which will likely take not happen until early 2025).

Below is a full listing of what is happening at the financial regulatory agencies this week and in Congress. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· Wednesday, June 5, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Budget Committee holds a hearing on "Riskier Business: How Climate is Already Challenging Insurance Markets."

House of Representatives

· Tuesday, June 4, 11:00 a.m. – The House Ways and Means Social Security Subcommittee holds a hearing on "The Social Security Trust Funds in 2024 and Beyond."

· Wednesday, June 5, 9:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Digital Assets, Financial Technology and Inclusion Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Next Generation Infrastructure: How Tokenization of Real-World Assets Will Facilitate Efficient Markets."

Joint Committees

· Tuesday, June 4, 2:30 p.m. – The Joint Economic Committee holds a hearing on "Artificial Intelligence and Its Potential to Fuel Economic Growth and Improve Governance."

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Thursday, June 6, 12:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook at the Girls Global Academy 2024 Commencement Ceremony, University of the District of Columbia, Washington, D.C.

U.S. Treasury Department

· Tuesday, June 4, 1:00 p.m. – The Treasury Department holds a virtual meeting of the Federal Advisory Committee on Insurance to discuss climate-related financial risk and the insurance sector, discuss cyber insurance developments and international insurance issues and receive status updates from each of its subcommittees and from the Federal Insurance Office on its activities.

· Thursday, June 6 & 7 – The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) and the Brookings Institution hold a conference on "Artificial Intelligence & Financial Stability.” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu will give keynote speeches.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Tuesday, June 5, 11:10 a.m. – SEC Chair Gary Gensler will speak at the ISDA/SIFMA Treasury Forum in New York.

· Wednesday, June 6, 10:00 a.m. – The SEC holds a virtual meeting of the SEC Investor Advisory Committee for a panel discussion examining the new frontier for investment advice, a panel discussion regarding AI regulation: embracing the future, a discussion of a recommendation regarding the protection of self-directed investors when trading complex products and utilizing complex strategies, a discussion of a recommendation on financial literacy and investor education and subcommittee and working group reports.

· Wednesday, June 6, 1:00 p.m. – The SEC hosts the 90th Anniversary of the Securities Exchange Act at the SEC.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Tuesday, June 4, 10:00 a.m. – The Commodity Futures Trading Commission holds a meeting of the Global Markets Advisory Committee to hear a presentation from the GMAC's Global Market Structure Subcommittee, Technical Issues Subcommittee, and Digital Asset Markets Subcommittee on various workstreams, and consider recommendations from the Subcommittees on such workstreams.

· Wednesday, June 5, 12:30 p.m. – CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam to keynote at the Piper Sandler Global Exchange & Trading Conference 2024 in New York.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· Tuesday, June 4, 9:00 a.m. – The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation holds a meeting of the FDIC Advisory Committee on Economic Inclusion for updates from committee members about key challenges facing their communities or organizations and panel discussions on the current environment for economic inclusion, including industry and market trends that affect consumer participation in the banking system.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· Wednesday, June 6, 9:40 a.m. Chicago Time – Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu will discuss “The OCC’s Financial Health: Vital Signs Initiative” at the EMERGE Financial Health 2024 Conference in Chicago, Illinois.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· Tuesday, June 4, 11:20 a.m. – FTC Chair Lina Kahn will participate in a fireside chat at the 2024 CNBC CEO Summit in Washington, D.C.

· Friday, June 7, 10:30 a.m. – FTC Chair Lina Kahn delivers opening comments at the American Constitution Society Annual Conference in Atlanta, Georgia.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Tuesday, June 4 – The American Academy of Actuaries holds a symposium on "Looking Back, Moving Forward: The Employee Retirement Income Security Act at 50’ in Washington, D.C.

· Tuesday, June 4, 8:00 a.m. – The U.S. Chamber of Commerce holds its 2024 Sustainability and Circular Economy Summit in Washington, D.C.

· Tuesday, June 4, 1:30 p.m. – The Institute of International Bankers holds their 2024 Foreign Bank Governance Seminar in New York.

Think Tanks and Other Events

Thursday, June 6 & 7 – The Urban Institute holds a summit on "Advancing Housing Justice.”

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 6/2/24 Francis Kelly 6/2/24

The Global Week Ahead

June 2 - 9, 2024

This is the week of big election results, which will have a big impact on markets. Mexico, India, and the European Parliament all have elections this week. The outcome in two of them—Mexico and India—is pretty much assured for the ruling parties, but the margin of victory is critically important to the market outlook for both countries.

In Mexico, former Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum is ahead in all polls. But her opponent, Xóchitl Gálvez, has run a smart campaign and put reforms and economic development on the nation, putting serious pressure on Sheinbaum and the Moreno Party coalition. Interestingly, Sheinbaum is seen as possibly being more left-wing than current President Andres Manual Lopez Obrador (AMLO), but voter pressure may keep her leftist tilt in check.

In India, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appear to be on the cusp of an enormous victory, picking up even more seats in parliament than before and potentially paving the way for Modi to push through sweeping reforms highly attractive to investors.

Finally, in Europe, voters across the European Union will vote for members of the European Parliament. Polls suggest the result could be a significant right-wing tilt of the EU Parliament. It will also decide who the next EC President will be (likely re-election of current President Ursula von der Leyden) and the entire European Commission.

We would note two important and somber anniversaries this week, one ensuring freedom and the other crushing it: The first being the 80th Anniversary of D-Day on June 6 and the second 35th Anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre in Beijing.

Looking at the economic radar screen this week, markets will be watching the European Central Bank's decision on interest rates on Thursday. Elsewhere in Europe, Germany releases industrial production figures, factory orders, and the latest trade balance numbers.

In the US, the jobs report coming out Friday is being closely watched by market participates in advance of the Federal Reserve Board meeting in two weeks. Canada’s Reserve Bank meets on interest rates.

Turning to Asia, China releases the Caixin PMIs and the May trade balance. In Japan, the Ministry of Finance’s Q1 Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations and the Monthly Labor Survey for April are released.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, June 2, 2024

Global

· OPEC+ ministers meet via videoconference to assess oil output.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Mexico holds presidential, senatorial, and chamber of deputy elections. Claudia Sheinbaum (ruling party MORENA) is expected to win against her opponent, Xochitl Galvez (opposition party PAN). You can track the election results HERE.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Serbia reruns Belgrade’s elections which were held in December. The rerun comes as a result of complaints of widespread voter fraud.

· Italy celebrates Republic Day today, marking the day in 1946 when the country voted to become a republic following the end of World War II.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The International Air Transport Association holds its annual meeting in Dubai through June 4.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 3, 2024

Global

· The Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will meet in Vienna to discuss Iran’s nuclear development and the situation in Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Biden’s son, Hunter, goes on trial for illegal firearms possession.

· Brazil will host the International Conference on Renewable Energy Technologies in Teresina.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mexico Business Confidence (May)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (April)

· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Balance of Trade (May)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (May)

· Uruguay Unemployment Rate (April)

· Argentina Tax Revenue (May)

· Peru Inflation Rate (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (May)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM (May)

· Japan Capital Spending YoY (Q1)/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (May)

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Tourist Arrivals (April)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May)

· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (May)

· Kazakhstan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Thailand Business Confidence (May)

· Pakistan Balance of Trade (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Wholesale Prices (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The UN’s Bonn Climate Change Conference begins in Bonn, Germany. The meeting is in advance of the COP28 meetings.

· The Oslo Freedom Forum takes place in Oslo, Norway. The posthumous Award of the Oslo Freedom Forum Human Rights Prize will be given to Alexei Navalny.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· France Budget Balance (April)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (May)

· Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Spain Tourist Arrivals (April)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Turkey Inflation Rate (May)/ Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (May)/ PPI (May)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Prel (May)

· Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (May)

· Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (May)

· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI May

· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (May)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)

· Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The White House is set to send a delegation of National Security Council staff to Egypt to hold a trilateral meeting between U.S., Egyptian and Israeli officials in Cairo next week to discuss the reopening of the Rafah crossing and a plan for securing the border between Egypt and Gaza Nothing significant to report.

· Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan will meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing. They are expected to discuss enhanced trade opportunities as well as the situation in Gaza and in Ukraine. Another key point they will discuss is harmonizing China’s Belt and Road Initiative with the Trans-Caspian East-West Middle Corridor Initiative. These discussions come as developments in Ukraine, Gaza, and the Red Sea impact global supply line security and some transportation projects. Fidan will also meet with Chinese Vice President Han Zheng.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Uganda observes Martyrs Day, commemorating when 45 Christians chose execution over renouncing their faith in 1887.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (May)

Tuesday, June 4, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin meets with his counterparts in Cambodia. In recent years, Cambodia has grown closer to China. China has been sending migrant workers to Cambodia, reaching almost 300,000 workers. Penh.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM (May)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1)

· Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (March)

· USA Redbook (June/01)/ JOLTs Job Openings & Quits (April)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/31)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (May)/ Total Vehicle Sales (May)

· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI/ Exports (April)

· Paraguay Inflation Rate (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· India’s national election process concludes. The seven-phase general election began on April 19 with voting being held for 543 seats in the Lok Sbah (the lower house of Parliament). An estimated 970 million people were eligible to vote. More than one million polling stations were set up and 15 million employees of federal and state governments conducted the polls. Poll officials went to great lengths to ensure everyone who could vote did vote. Officials used helicopters, boats, mules, and even elephants to reach remote areas. A party needs to win a majority of 272 seats to form a government. The ruling Baharatiya Janata Party (BJP) went into the election with 282 seats and is looking to expand that number. You can track the election results HERE.

· South Africa hosts the Korea-Africa Summit and the Korea-Africa Business Sumit (on June 5) in Seoul. African leaders will gather to discuss with South Korean leaders how to improve trade and economic relations.

· Pakistan Foreign Minister Shehbaz Sharif meets with Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Beijing. The meeting is expected to focus on expanding the multi-billion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which is critical to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, giving China access to Pakistan’s ports.

· Today is the 35th anniversary of the crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrators in Tiananmen Square.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Inflation Rate (May)

· India General Elections Results

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Australia Company Gross Profits QoQ (Q1)/ Business Inventories QoQ (Q1)/ Current Account (Q1)/ Net Exports Contribution to GDP (Q1)/ Retail Sales MoM Final (April)

· New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (June/04)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Labor Party Leader Sir Keir Starmer will debate on ITV in their first election debate.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo participates in a seminar entitled "Big Techs in Finance: The European Union Must React!" organized by the Association Europe-Finances-Régulations (AEFR) in Paris.

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives a speech at "Die Woche der Umwelt 2024, zusammen für Klimaneutralität" organized by the Deutsche Bundesstiftung Umwelt (DBU) in Berlin.

· Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (May)

· Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Romania PPI (April)

· Hungary GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)

· Switzerland Inflation Rate (May)

· Slovakia Real Wages YoY (Q1)

· Spain Unemployment Change (May)

· Germany Unemployment Rate (May)

· Slovenia Balance of Trade (April)

· Euro Area Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (May)

· Qatar Financial Centre PMI (May)/ Balance of Trade (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· African leaders will gather in Seoul for the 2024 Korea-Africa

· Zambia’s bondholders will hold a final vote on Tuesday on a $3 billion restructuring deal aimed at creating fiscal space for the southern African nation that defaulted in 2020.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt S&P Global PMI (May)

· South Africa GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1)

Wednesday, June 5, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo will travel to Singapore to participate in the Indo-Pacific Framework Clean Energy Investor Forum, which runs through June 6. She will then participate in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework Ministerial meetings.

· The Inaugural Joint Angolan American Defense Cooperation Agreement begins in Washington and runs through June 6.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/31)/ ADP Employment Change (May)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (May)/ ISM Services PMI (May)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (May/31)

· Brazil Industrial Production (April)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (May)

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (May)

· Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision/Press Conference

· Canada Labor Productivity QoQ (Q1)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (May)/

· Uruguay Inflation Rate (May)

· Argentina Industrial Production (April)

· Colombia PPI (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)

· New Zealand Export Prices QoQ (Q1)/ Import Prices QoQ (Q1)/ Terms of Trade QoQ (Q1)

· Australia Ai Group Industry Index (May)/ Judo Bank Services & Composite PMI Final (May)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1)

· Japan Average Cash Earnings (April)/ Overtime Pay (April)/ Jibun Bank Services & Composite PMI Final (May)

· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (May)

· Singapore S&P Global PMI (May)/ Retail Sales (April)/ SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Philippines Inflation Rate (May)

· China Caixin Services & Composite PMI (May)

· Thailand Inflation Rate (May)

· India HSBC Services & Composite PMI Final (May)

· Kazakhstan S&P Global Services PMI (May)

· Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The St. Petersburg International Economic Forum begins and runs through June 8. Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to speak.

· Denmark celebrates Constitution Day, commemorating the day in 1849 when the first Constitution was signed. Workers get the second half of the day off and shops close to celebrate.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Kerstin af Jochnick participates in a fireside chat at the 28th Goldman Sachs European Financial Conference in Madrid.

· ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates on a panel discussion at the 23rd annual IMF-FED-WB.

· Russia S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (May)/ PPI (May)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ Business Confidence (May)/ Real Wage Growth (March)/ Retail Sales (April)/ GDP (April)

· Hungary Balance of Trade Prel (April)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· France Industrial Production MoM (April)/ HCOB Services & Composite PMI (May)

· Spain HCOB Services Composite PMI (May)

· Italy HCOB Services & Composite PMI (May)

· Germany HCOB Services & Composite PMI (May)

· Euro Area HCOB Services & Composite PMI (May)/ PPI (April)/ European Parliament Election

· Great Britain S&P Global Services & Composite PMI Final

· Poland Interest Rate Decision (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (May)

· Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (May)

· Israel Tourist Arrivals (May)

· Jordan PPI (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (May)

· South Africa S&P Global PMI (May)

· Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (May)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Ghana S&P Global PMI (May)

Thursday, June 6, 2024

Global

· The UN General Assembly is expected to elect five non-permanent members to the UN Security Council. The likely new members are Denmark, Greece, Pakistan, Panama, and Somalia, and they will serve for two-year terms.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Biden will travel to France to participate in the D-Day commemoration ceremonies.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook at the Girls Global Academy 2024 Commencement Ceremony, University of the District of Columbia, Washington, D.C.

· USA Challenger Job Cuts (May)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Initial Jobless Claims (June/01)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (May/31)

· Mexico Auto Production (May)

· Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Ivey PMI s.a (May)

· Brazil Car Production MoM (May)

· Ecuador Inflation Rate (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Toyoaki Nakamura meets with local leaders and gives and speech in Sapporo, Japan.

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (June/01)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (June/01)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Philippines Unemployment Rate (April)

· Australia Balance of Trade (April)/ Investment Lending for Homes (April)

· Taiwan Inflation Rate (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Union Parliamentary elections take place through June 9. The election is expected to result in a strong right-wing surge of members. Once the new parliament is seated in September, they will choose and approve new European Commissioners and also nominate the President of the European Commission (currently, Ursula von der Leyden, who is running for re-election). You can follow the results HERE.

· French President Emmanuel Macron will host world leaders in Normandy to commemorate the anniversary of D-Day. Macron has angered allies by inviting a representative of the Russian government to attend. Ukrainian President Zelensky is expected to attend, as well.

· Nothing significant to report.

· Today is Sweden National Day. Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank meets to discuss monetary policy. There will be a press conference afterward.

· Ireland AIB Services PMI (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (May)

· Romania Retail Sales (April)

· Hungary Retail Sales (April)

· Slovakia GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)/ Retail Sales (April)

· Spain Industrial Production (April)

· Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (May)/ Retail Sales (April)/Marginal Lending Rate

· France HCOB Construction PMI (May)

· Germany HCOB Construction PMI (May)

· Italy HCOB Construction PMI (May)/ Retail Sales (April)

· Great Britain S&P Global Construction PMI (May)

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/31)

· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Business Confidence (May)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Current Account (Q1)

· Nigeria Balance of Trade (February)/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Balance of Trade (January)

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Friday, June 7, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

· Mexico Inflation Rate (May)

· Canada Unemployment Rate (May)/ Participation Rate (May)/ Capacity Utilization (Q1)

· USA Unemployment Rate (May)/ Participation Rate (May)/ Average Weekly Hours (May)/ Wholesale Inventories MoM (April)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (June/07)/ Consumer Credit Change (April)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan’s Self-Defense Force (SDF) will participate in the US military’s “Valiant Shield” military exercises through June 18. The exercises normally take place around Guam, the Northern Marianas Islands, and Palau.

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Manufacturing Sales YoY (Q1)

· Japan Household Spending (April)/ Coincident Index Prel (April)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (April)

· Philippines Industrial Production (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (May)

· China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (May)

· India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/31)

· Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NATO’s Baltic Operations 2024 exercises begin in Lithuania.

· Today is Sette Giurno in Malta, a national holiday. It celebrates nothing in particular – it’s just a day off for everyone.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in Atelier Maurice Allais 2024 organized by Fondation Maurice Allais in Paris.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates on a panel discussion at the Federal Ministry of Finance in Berlin.

· Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Industrial Production MoM (April)

· Romania GDP Growth Rate YoY 2nd Est (cQ1)

· Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (May)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (May)

· Hungary Industrial Production YoY Prel (April)/ Budget Balance (May)

· France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Current Account (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (April)

· Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Euro Area Employment Change YoY Final (Q1)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY 3rd Est (Q1)/ European Parliament Election

· Greece Balance of Trade (April)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1)

· Ireland Current Account (Q1)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)/ GNP YoY (Q1)/ Industrial Production (April)

· Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)/ Business Confidence (Q2)

Saturday, June 8, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· French President Emmanuel Macron will host President Biden for an official state visit to France. They are expected to discuss the situation in Ukraine and Macron may use the occasion to announce France is sending military trainers to Ukraine.

· Ireland holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Euro Area European Parliament Election

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a deadline set by National Unity leader and war cabinet member Bennie Gantz to submit a six-point plan for post-war Gaza. Gantz has said that if Netanyahu fails to do this, Gantz’s centrist party will withdraw from the governing coalition and likely trigger a new election. According to recent polls, close to 70 percent of Israeli voters want Netanyahu to step down and new elections to be held soon.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 9, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Vehicle Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Bulgaria holds parliamentary elections.

· Belgium holds parliamentary and regional elections.

· Germany holds municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is National Heroes Day in Uganda, honoring the estimated 500,000 people who died in the Uganda Bush War that took place between 1981 and 1986.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 5/31/24 Francis Kelly 5/31/24

Our Recommended Summer Reading List (Part I)

Memorial Day is here, and that means summer is upon us. I" 'm a big fan of recommended book lists - I collect them! - and, for the first time in my life, I took a stab compiling a list of ten books I've read this year that I really liked. Hopefully, you will find them as entertaining and enlightening as I did when lounging on the beach. I hope to have a second list of recommended books later this summer, too.

The Chile Project: The Story of the Chicago Boys and the Downfall of Neoliberalism by Sebastian Edwards (Princeton Press, 2024, 376 pages)

In 1955, the U.S. State Department launched the "Chile Project" - an effort to train and assist Chilean economists at the University of Chicago to help embed free market policies in the country. A steady flow of Chile's best and brightest matriculated through the University's graduate program, studying under some of the most brilliant economists in the World, including Milton Friedman. By the time General Augusto Pinochet overthrew the Neo-Marxist regime of President Salvador Allende in 1973, this cadre of free market economists was in a position to move sweeping reforms of privatization and deregulation. This is a fascinating history of what happened, the impact it had not only on Chile but the whole region, and how Chileans ultimately rebelled in 2019 against neoliberalism and elected Gabriel Boric president, a socialist dedicated to ending "neoliberalism." We would note, however, that Boric has struggled badly to implement his promised changes, including two failed efforts to rewrite the constitution.

US - Taiwan Relations: Will China’s Challenge Lead to Crisis? By Ryan Hass, Bonnie Glaser, and Richard Bush (Brookings Institution Press, 2023, 184 pages)

Over the last two years, markets have been concerned about a possible invasion of Taiwan, how the U.S. would respond, and what it would mean for the global economy. However, in our conversations with numerous market participants, many do not understand the dynamics of the US-Taiwan relationship, the history of China-Taiwan relations, and other important dynamics. Hass, Glaser, and Bush have published an excellent and much-needed examination of all these critical questions. To understand what is happening and what might happen, you must read this well-written and indispensable book.

We Win, They Lose: Republican Foreign Policy & the New Cold War by Matthew Koenig and Dan Negra (Republic Book Publishers, 2024, 220 pages)

Matthew Koenig's and Dan Negraea's book is getting wide circulation as something from a Republican foreign policy historical manifesto. The title comes from Ronald Reagan, who was asked in 1977 what the driving principle of his foreign policy was. His response: "My idea of American policy toward the Soviet Union is simple, and some would say simplistic. It is this: We win, and they lose." The authors, both admirers of Reagan and veterans of the Trump Administration, push back on the strain of isolationism currently running through the Republican Party. And it is having an effect as countless Republican operatives and strategists we've spoken to have recommended the book to me - and I'm glad they did, as it gave me an excellent inside view of where Republican foreign policy will likely go in the years to come.

Breaking the Mold: India’s Untraveled Path to Prosperity by Raghuram G. Rajan (and Rohit Samba ( Princeton University Press, 2024, 336 pages)

Former Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan and Penn State Professor Rohit Lamba write a fascinating and taunt guide to understanding what India has accomplished economically and what it still needs to do going forward. India's economy has overtaken the United Kingdom's to become the fifth-largest in the World. However, it is still only one-fifth the size of China, and India's economic growth needs to be faster to provide jobs for millions of its ambitious youth. Blocking India's current path is intense global competition in low-skilled manufacturing, increasing protectionism and automation, and the country's majoritarian streak in politics. Rajan and Lamba outline what needs to be done to overcome these challenges.

The Dillon Era: Douglas Dillon in the Eisenhower, Kennedy, and Johnson Administrations by Richard Aldous (McGill - Queens University Press, 2023, 296 pages)

Having grown up in Washington, I was taught by my grandfather (who was a mega-lobbyist who knew presidents and the most influential members of Congress while having a brother who was the FBI Deputy Director under J. Edgar Hoover) that history is more often quietly made by the extraordinary men and women serving the President than the President themselves. Douglas Dillon was one of those men - who is sadly fading away with the sands of history. The scion of a fabulously wealthy family that founded the then-Wall Street powerhouse investment bank Dillon Reed, he never forgot the real roots of his family - his grandfather had been a poor Polish Jew who emigrated to the U.S., settled in Texas, changed his name to "Dylion" which was his mother's name and from which it was anglicized to Dillon. This thin biography does a fantastic job recounting Douglas Dillon, who served as Treasury Secretary, savvy advisor to Presidents, Ambassador to France (back when that meant something and was not just an honorific), and Wall Street titan himself.

Unexpected Revolutionaries: How Central Banks Made and Unmade Economic Orthodoxy by Manuela Moschella (Cornell University Press, 2024, 188 pages)

I stumbled upon this slim little book in a bookstore, and once I started reading it, I could not put it down. A fascinating read looking at how central banks - specifically the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan - have massively transformed from the staid and predictable institutions of the last century due to the shocks of the 2008 global financial crisis and COVID.

In short, the playbooks central banks had worked from for decades had to be tossed, and new ways of dealing with economic shocks developed. The history the author covers is well-written and fascinating, but what was particularly engaging was how it has led to central banks stretching into areas far beyond monetary policy, such as climate change and inequality. The "neoliberal macroeconomic regime," as we have known it, is gone, and a new age of central banking is upon us in ways we are only just beginning to understand.

Ian Fleming: The Complete Man by Nicholas Shakespeare (Harper Publishing, 2024, 864 pages)

Since he first wrote "Casino Royale" in 1953, Ian Fleming's James Bond has tightly gripped the imaginations of readers and moviegoers worldwide. It also helped Great Britain, struggling to get back on its feet after World War II, when the Empire began crumbling and colonial states broke away. Indeed, Fleming's Bond recovered a sense of Britain's strength, swagger, and pride so powerfully that James Bond has become enshrined as an actual emblem of "Great" Britain itself (Recall in 2012, then-Bond actor Daniel Craig - playing Bond one last time - joined forces with Queen Elizabeth in Buckingham Palace to go forth together in a grand video production to officially open the 2012 Olympics in London). But who was Ian Fleming? In this superb biography, Nick Shakespeare shows that Fleming was almost as mysterious and adventuresome as his James Bond. He sought to "live a complete life," which led him to travel the World constantly, have an incredible career in British Naval Intelligence, participates in some of the most significant, most important moments of his time, and know everyone of power and wealth in the World. It was a fantastic life - one defined by his Bond novels, of which he only spent the final twelve years writing.

The Achilles Trap: Saddam Hussein, the United States, and the Middle East 1989 - 2003 by Steve Coll (Penguin Press, 2024, 556 pages)

We are now entering, rightly, the phase where historians and policymakers can begin to look back and examine the Iraq War. Why did we go in? Why was the intelligence so off? And, as Steve Coll does brilliantly in this new book, why did Saddam Hussein risk (and ultimately lose) everything by giving the false impression he had hidden stocks of weapons of mass destruction? Coll goes deep, looking at not just the U.S. side but the Iraqi side, the Iraqi generals, scientists, and other people of power who sat by and played into this tragic facade that ended up destroying Hussein's long reign of power, plunging the country into war, and forever changing the future of Iraq.

The Peacemaker: Ronald Reagan, The Cold War, and the World on the Brink by William Inboden (Dutton Press, 2022, 608 pages)

Having served in the Reagan White House, I love to read good, well-researched books on what was actually going on while I was there (I started there when I was 22 years old and left when I was 25). Inboden writes an excellent history of how Reagan and his team successfully ended the Cold War and helped expand democracy and free trade globally. But it was Reagan's determination and focus on defeating the Soviet Union - the Evil Empire - that made it all happen. This is a great read.

Countering China’s Great Game: A Strategy for American Dominance by Michael Sobolik (Naval Institute Press, 2024, 218 pages)

Chinese President Xi Jinping's "project of the century" - the Belt & Road Initiative - is one of the most significant geopolitical gambits in recent memory, leveraging China's investments for political, economic, and military purposes around the World. Reaching around the World - from Asia to Africa to Latin America - China firmly set its grand strategy. So far, the U.S. and other Western and Asian democracies have not put up a comprehensive counter-strategy. Sobolik explains the Belt and Road efforts and offers an intelligent blueprint for the United States to counter it by playing off the one core weakness China has exposed to their plan: imperial overreach.

Francis Kelly 5/26/24 Francis Kelly 5/26/24

The Global Week Ahead

May 26 - June 2, 2024

While it will be a quiet week in the US with the Memorial Day holiday and the official beginning of Summer, it will be a hectic week worldwide. Markets will be watching a number of major events this week, particularly the China-Japan-South Korea trilateral meeting in Seoul, South Korea. The leaders of the three nations are meeting together for the first time since 2019. Tensions between the three nations have increased in recent years as Japan and South Korea have grown closer to the US in a bid to better defend themselves against the growing Chinese presence in the region as well as North Korea’s enhanced missile capability and growing belligerence toward them. China is Japan and South Korea’s largest trading partner and while no breakthroughs are expected, is part of a new effort to reduce those tensions and maintain strong economic relations.

Markets will be watching as two significant elections are held this week and one massive election moves into its final stage. First, in Mexico, voters will choose a new president. Former Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, an ally of current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), is expected to win, making her Mexico’s first woman president. Markets are watching this election closely as Sheinbaum is expected to continue AMLO’s populist economic policies, which have often clashed with business interests in the country.

Second, South Africa holds presidential and parliamentary elections. President Cyril Ramaphosa is likely to be elected for a second term that will keep him in office until 2029. South Africa, a member of the BRICS, has grown closer to Russia and China in recent years and more hostile to the US and other Western countries. Recall it was the South African government who filed the case charging Israel with committing genocide against Palestinians in the International Court of Justice while claiming neutrality in the Ukrainian War while increasing trade and conducting joint naval drills last year with Russia and China.

India moves to the seventh and final stage of its six-week national elections. More than 970 million people were eligible to vote. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are expected to retain power and likely expand it in the country’s 543-seat parliament. But expectations for a sweeping BJP electoral super-majority win are now being tempered as polling suggests opposition parties may have done somewhat better than expected. The final results will be announced on June 4. The final stage comes one day after India announces GDP figures on Friday which are expected to be at least 8 percent for Q1.

There will be a flurry of activity in Europe this week, with significant meetings and visits. EU and NATO foreign ministers will be meeting to discuss the situation in Ukraine and Gaza, underscoring the importance of these geopolitical hotspots. Additionally, French President Emmanuel Macron will make a State Visit to Germany – the first state visit of a French President to Germany in 24 years. This extraordinary visit, which will also include a joint meeting of the French and German cabinets, aims to address a long list of issues and bring the two nations closer together. The strained relations between the two countries over energy, economics, and other issues in recent years make this visit particularly significant.

It will not be all quiet in the US this week. On Tuesday, closing arguments in the criminal trial of former President Trump begin in New York. The Ohio State Legislature has been called back into a special session to vote on a bill allowing President Biden to be added to the November ballot. Due to a glitch in Ohio law and the timing of the Democratic Presidential Convention in August, Biden is currently not on the ballot. The legislature failed to correct this before they went out of session last week, forcing Governor Mike DeWine to call them back.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, markets will be looking closely at important inflation data from the US (including the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), Europe, Japan, and China. In particular, Germany will release its May CPIs on Wednesday, while Italy, France, and the Eurozone will release CPIs on Friday. The Federal Reserve will release the latest Beige Book, and the European Central Bank will release the important consumer expectations survey.

Below are the rest of the significant political events and economic reports we are watching this coming week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

Sunday, May 26, 2024

Global

UN Secretary-General António Guterres will travel to Antigua and Barbuda to take part in the fourth International Conference on Small Island Developing States. He will first attend the High-Level Closing Session of the Small Island Developing State Business Network.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Former President Trump will address the Libertarian Party’s National Convention in Washington, D.C. Independent Candidate Robert Kennedy, Jr. addressed the Convention yesterday. Both candidates are seeking the support and endorsement of the Party, and it is the first time the Party has allowed non-party candidates to address and appeal to the party.
Today is Independence Day in Guyana, marking the day the country gained its independence from the UK in 1966.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

The leaders of China, South Korea, and Japan will meet in Seoul, South Korea, through May 27 for their first trilateral summit since 2019. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, Chinese Premier Li Qiang, and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will discuss mutual trade and security issues. It is the first time the trilateral has been held since 2019. Japan and South Korea both are both major trading partners with China but with the two nations growing closer to the US, tensions have increased.
Japan's Shizuoka prefecture will hold a gubernatorial election, which will serve as an indicator of the prospects of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party in the country's next general election.
Cambodia and China will conduct "Golden Dragon" military exercises through May 30.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Russian President Vladimir Putin begins a two-day visit to Uzbekistan.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will visit Spain.
French President Emmanuel Macron will travel to Germany for a three-day state visit through May 28. It is the first state visit by a French leader in 24 years. According to the German and French governments, "find points of convergence between France and Germany on subjects of the future like technology, innovation, artificial intelligence."
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda faces a runoff election in his bid for a second term against Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte, a rematch of the 2019 elections
President of the European Council Charles Michel may meet with the Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Palestinian Authority (TBC).
Georgia celebrates Independence Day today, marking the day it gained its freedom from Russia in 1991.

Economic Reports/Events –

European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a speech on "Climate change and monetary policy" at Festival dell'Economia di Trento 2024 in Trento, Italy.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Israel Manufacturing Production (March)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 27, 2024

Global

The World Health Organization (WHO) will hold its 77th World Health Assembly in Geneva, Switzerland. The organization is seeking a final agreement on a global pandemic treaty to deal with any future pandemic.
The UN’s fourth International Conference on Small Island Developing States is taking place in Antigua and Barbuda, organized by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) and the United Nations Office of the High Representative for the Least Developed Countries, Landlocked Developing Countries and Small Island Developing States (UN-OHRLLS).
UN Secretary-General António Guterres will address the opening ceremony of the Conference, where he will reiterate the UN’s support for the aspirations of Small Island Developing States (SIDS) – from halting and mitigating the impacts of the climate crisis to building resilient economies and fostering safe, healthy and prosperous societies. He will also call on the international community to support SIDS in the challenges they face and will underscore that SIDS is a test case for climate justice and financial justice.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

The US Congress is out of session this week in honor of the Memorial Day holiday. Banks and financial markets are closed.
Peru will host a meeting of senior finance officials for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Urubamba, Peru.

Economic Reports/Events –

Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester to participate in policy panel discussion on “The Effects of Conventional and Unconventional Policy Instruments" before the 2024 Bank of Japan - Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies Conference in Tokyo, Japan.
Brazil Bank Lending (April)/ BCB Focus Market Readout
Canada Wholesale Sales MoM Prel (April)/ CFIB Business Barometer
Mexico GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

China Industrial Profits (YTD) (April)
Taiwan Consumer Confidence (May)
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at the 2024 BOJ-IMES Conference Hosted by the Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, in Tokyo. Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida will also give a speech.
Japan Coincident Index Final (March)/ Leading Economic Index Final (March)
Indonesia M2 Money Supply (April)
Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (May)
Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

As announced last week, Norway, Ireland, and Spain formally recognize a State of Palestine.
Cabinets of France and Germany for joint talks chaired by Olaf Scholz and Emmanuel Macron in Berlin, Germany.
The EU Foreign Affairs Council will meet in Brussels through May 28. The Foreign Affairs Ministers are expected to discuss the Russian aggression against Ukraine after an informal exchange of views with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba, who is foreseen to join the beginning of the meeting via videoconference to provide updates on the latest developments on the ground and Ukraine’s current priorities. They will also discuss the situation in Georgia in the wake of the passing of the highly controversial “foreign agent” law as well as the situation in Venezuela and Venezuelan President Maduro’s ongoing interference in free and fair elections. They will also discuss the situation in Gaza.
Georgia parliament set to adopt the highly controversial 'foreign influence' bill.
IAEA chief Rafael Grossi is expected to visit Moscow for talks on Zaporizhzhia, the nuclear power plant in Ukraine that has been under attack by Russian forces.
The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels. They are expected to discuss current crisis situation in the agricultural sector. The Council will follow up on the responses that have already been provided and those that are currently envisaged, while also focusing on the future of crisis management.
The Supporting the Future of Syria and the Region – Brussels Eight Conference will be held in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

In the UK, it is the Spring Bank holiday. Financial Markets are closed.
European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a keynote speech on "Inflation in the Eurozone" at the Institute of International and European Affairs (IIEA) in Dublin, Ireland.
Turkey Business Confidence (May)/ Capacity Utilization (May)
Germany Ifo Business Climate (May)/ Ifo Current Conditions (May)/ Ifo Expectations (May)
Poland Unemployment Rate (April)
Slovenia Business Confidence (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Israel Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

The African Development Bank holds its annual meeting in Nairobi, Kenya.

Economic Reports/Events –

Ghana Interest Rate Decision
Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (May)
Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (May)

Tuesday, May 28, 2024

Global

UN Secretary General António Gutteres Secretary-General will take part in the High-Level Meeting on Resource Mobilization for Small Island Developing States in Antigua.
The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on the maintenance of international peace and security: The role of women and young people.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

The Financial Information Forum of central banks of Latin America and the Caribbean will meet in Mexico City, Mexico.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken travels to Moldova for meetings with President Maia Sandu to discuss Moldova’s progress on EU accession and energy security.
Ohio Governor Mike DeWine has called a Special Session of the State Legislature to deal with a bill that will put President Biden on the state’s November ballot. The legislature failed to pass the bill last week before adjourning.
Closing arguments in the criminal trial of former President Trump will begin in New York.

Economic Reports/Events –

Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech entitled “AI and the Economy” at the Al-nomics: The Nexus of GenAI+ the Economy at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in San Francisco, California. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly will also speak and host the event.
Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to speak and participates in panel before the Barclays-CEPR International Monetary Policy Forum in London.
Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (May)/ PPI (April)/ Net Payrolls (April)
Canada PPI (April)/ Raw Materials Prices (April)
USA S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (March)/ House Price Index (March)/ Fed Kashkari Speech/ CB Consumer Confidence (May)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (May)/ Money Supply (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann travels to Indonesia for talks with President Joko Widodo about next steps for the nation’s entry into the OECD. Indonesia was granted accession status to the 38-member organization in February 2024. Indonesia hopes to complete the accession process within the next 2 to 3 years, thus making the country more attractive to foreign investment.
The SEMICON Southeast Asia 2024 trade show begins in Kuala Lumpur. The three-day event brings together thousands of electronics companies from China, Japan, South Korea, Europe, and the US.Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Australia Retail Sales MoM Prel (April)
Malaysia PPI (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

The European Economic Area Council meets in Brussels. The EEA Council will discuss the overall functioning of the EEA Agreement and hold an orientation debate on the role of the green transition in Europe’s competitiveness: challenges and opportunities.
Today marks the Founding of the Democratic Republic of Azerbaijan in 1918.

Economic Reports/Events –

Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Catherine Mann will speak at the Barclays-CEPR International Monetary Policy Forum in London.
ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot will speak at the Barclays-CEPR International Monetary Policy Forum in London.
European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a panel discussion at the 2024 BOJ-IMES conference on "Price Dynamics and Monetary Policy Challenges - Lessons Learned and Going Forward" in Tokyo, Japan.
Euro Area ECB Schnabel Speech
Germany Wholesale Prices (April)
Slovenia Retail Sales (April)
France Unemployment Benefit Claims (April)/ Jobseekers Total (April)
Ireland Retail Sales (April)
Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Israel Composite Economic Index (April)
Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (April)/ Private Bank Lending (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Today is National Day in Ethiopia, marking the day when the Derg – the dictatorial reign of Mengistu Hailie Marian, ended in 1991.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, May 29, 2024

Global

The Artic Congress 2024 is held through June 3 in Bodø, Norway.
The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to participate in roundtable with local leaders to hear about business conditions and municipal and community services in New York.
Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to participate in a moderated conversation on “Economic Outlook and Leadership" before the American Economic Association Conference on Teaching and Research in Economic Education in Atlanta, Georgia.
Brazil IGP-M Inflation (May)/ Gross Debt to GDP (April)/ Nominal Budget Balance (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)
Federal Reserve’s Beige Book is released/USA MBA Purchase Index (May/24)/ Redbook (May/25)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (May)/ Richmond Fed Services Index (May)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (May)/ Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/24)
Mexico Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Australia Westpac Leading Index (April)/ Construction Work Done QoQ (Q1)/ Monthly CPI Indicator (April)
New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (May)
Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Toyoaki Nakamura gives a speech to local leaders in Sapporo, Japan.
Japan Consumer Confidence (May)
Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision
Vietnam Balance of Trade (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Tourist Arrivals (May)
Singapore Export & Import Prices (April)/ PPI (April)
India M3 Money Supply (May/17)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (June)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (May)/ Bavaria CPI (May)/ Brandenburg CPI (May)/ Hesse CPI (May)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (May)/ Saxony CPI (May)/ Inflation Rate YoY Prel (May)
France Consumer Confidence (May)
Spain Retail Sales (April)
Euro Area Loans to Companies (April)/ Loans to Households (April)/ M3 Money Supply (April)
Italy Business Confidence (May)/ Consumer Confidence (May)
Poland Inflation Rate YoY Prel (May)
Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (May)
Greece Total Credit (April)
Russia Industrial Production (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Morocco will host the GITEX Africa conference in Marrakech through May 31, and attendees will discuss Africa's prospects in the fields of artificial intelligence and digital growth.

Economic Reports/Events –

Qatar Balance of Trade (April)
Jordan Industrial Production (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

South Africa holds presidential elections and elections for the 400-member National Assembly. They will also vote on nine provincial legislatures. The parliament will then select the president. The ruling African National Congress (ANC) is likely to remain in power through a slim majority or through a coalition with several smaller parties. President Cyril Ramaphosa is likely to be elected for a second term (until 2029 ).

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, May 30, 2024

Global

The UN the Security Council is expected to vote on a draft resolution renewing the mandate of the UN Assistant Mission for Iraq (UNAMI), and on South Sudan sanctions and on Libya [SCR 2292]. This will be followed with a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Syria). In the afternoon, a briefing at the Council is expected by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Filippo Grandi.
The AI for Good Summit will be held in Geneva, Switzerland. The summit will bring together governments, non-profit research institutions, corporations and international organizations to discuss how to regulate AI.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken travels to the Czech Republic for meetings with Foreign Minister Jan Lipavasky. He will also participate in an informal meeting of NATO Foreign Ministers.

Economic Reports/Events –

New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to speak before hybrid Signature Luncheon event hosted by the Economic Club of New York.
Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan to speak before the Borderplex Alliance Distinguished Speaker Series in El Paso, Texas.
Mexico Unemployment Rate (April)/ Fiscal Balance (April)
Canada Current Account (Q1)/ Average Weekly Earnings (March)
USA GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est (Q1)/ Corporate Profits QoQ Prel (Q1)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (April)/ Initial Jobless Claims (May)/25/ Continuing Jobless Claims (May/18)/ Real Consumer Spending QoQ 2nd Est (Q1)/ Pending Home Sales (April)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (May/24)
Chile Unemployment Rate (April)
Argentina Consumer Confidence (May)
Uruguay Unemployment Rate (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Hong Kong national security courts is expected to hand down a final verdict on the case of 47 activists and former lawmakers.
The 10th China-Arab States Cooperation Forum is held in Beijing.
Vanuatu holds a constitutional referendum. Voters will be asked whether they approve of several proposed amendments to the constitution regarding the regulation of political parties and motions of no confidence.

Economic Reports/Events –

New Zealand Building Permits (April)
Australia RBA Hunter Speech/ Building Permits MoM Prel (April)/ Building Capital Expenditure QoQ (Q1)/ Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure QoQ (Q1)/ Private Capital Expenditure QoQ (Q1)/ Private House Approvals MoM Prel (April)/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (May)
Japan Foreign Bond Investment (May/25)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (May/25)
Philippines PPI (April)
Singapore Bank Lending (April)
Taiwan GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

The UK Parliament will be dissolved in advance of the general election in July.
Spain’s Parliament will vote on an amnesty bill for Calatagan separatists.
There will be an informal meeting of NATO Ministers of Foreign Affairs in Prague, Czechia.
The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Brussels. Ministers will discuss trade and competitiveness and the future of EU trade policy, the state of play of trade and investment relations between the EU and Africa, and the follow-up to the 13th World Trade Organization Ministerial Conference (MC13).
The EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council (Energy) meets in Brussels. Energy ministers will approve conclusions on sustainable electricity grid infrastructure, followed by a discussion on the future of REPowerEU. They will also discuss the European Green Deal and how it can help transform the EU into a modern, resource-efficient, and competitive economy. They will also discuss the final and updated national energy and climate plans submitted by member states, which are instrumental in achieving the Green Deal objectives and agreed EU-wide targets. They are also expected to formally adopt the decision on the withdrawal of the EU and Euratom from the Energy Charter Treaty, together with the decision on the position to be taken on behalf of the EU and Euratom in the upcoming Energy Charter Conference.

Economic Reports/Events –

The European Central Bank and a number of European financial markets and banks are closed for the Corpus Christi holiday.
Ireland Consumer Confidence (May)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate YoY Prel (May)
Great Britain Car Production (April)
Switzerland SNB Jordan Speech/ Balance of Trade (April)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1)/ KOF Leading Indicators (May)
Romania Unemployment Rate (April)
Slovakia Business Confidence (May)/ Consumer Confidence (May)
Spain Inflation Rate YoY Prel (May)/ Business Confidence (May)
Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (April)/ Economic Confidence Index (May)/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/24)
Italy Unemployment Rate (April)/ PPI (April)
Euro Area Economic Sentiment (May)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ Consumer Confidence Final (May)/ Industrial Sentiment (May)/ Services Sentiment (May)
Greece PPI (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)
Russia Unemployment Rate (Q1)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, China. bilateral relations between the two countries and opportunities for further cooperation and collaboration, especially in the economic, developmental, and cultural fields.

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Madagascar holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

The World Bank’s board will meet to decide on Kenya’s funding under development policy financing, which would lead to the release of between $900 million and $1.2 billion for budget support.Nothing significant to report.
South Africa M3 Money Supply (April)/ Private Sector Credit (April)/ PPI (April)/ Budget Balance (April)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

Friday, May 31, 2024

Global

Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will participate in the International Institute for Strategic Studies hosts the Shanri-La Dialogue in Singapore. He is expected to meet with his Chinese counterpart, Admiral Dong Jun. It will be the first meeting between the two defense leaders, and they are expected to discuss tensions with Taiwan and other security issues in the Indo-Pacific. Austin will then travel on to Cambodia for meetings with senior officials and then to France to mark the 80th Anniversary of D-Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to give commencement speech at Augusta Technical College, in Augusta, Texas.
Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)
Canada GDP (March)/ Budget Balance (March)
USA Core PCE Price Index (April)/ Personal Income (April)/ Personal Spending (April)/ Chicago PMI (May)
Chile Copper Production (April)/ Industrial & Manufacturing Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)
Colombia Unemployment Rate (April)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (April)
Brazil Balance of Trade (May)
Uruguay Balance of Trade (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

The International Institute for Strategic Studies hosts the Shanri-La Dialogue in Singapore. The Dialogue has become one of the most important independent forums for the exchange of views by international security policy decision-makers. Besides the host nation, countries that have participated in the dialogue have included most Asian countries, as well as those from North America and Europe.

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

South Korea Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)
Japan Unemployment Rate (April)/ Jobs/applications ratio (April)/ Tokyo CPI (May)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Industrial Production YoY Prel (April)/ Housing Starts (April)/ Construction Orders (April)
Australia Private Sector Credit (April)/ Commodity Prices (May)
China NBS General PMI (May)
Thailand Industrial Production (April)
Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision/ Inflation Rate (May)
Malaysia M3 Money Supply (April)
Thailand Current Account (April)/ Private Consumption & Investment (April)
Hong Kong Retail Sales (April)
Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (May)/ PPI (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)
India Government Budget Value (March)/ Government Budget Value (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/24)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1)
Pakistan Consumer Confidence (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

NATO’s “Steadfast Defender 24” military exercise concludes. The largest NATO military exercise held since the end of the Cold War began in January.

Economic Reports/Events –

France Non-Farm Payrolls QoQ (Q1)/ Inflation Rate YoY Prel (May)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)/ PPI (April)
Germany Retail Sales (April)/ Import Prices (April)
Hungary Balance of Trade Final (March)/ PPI (April)
Switzerland Retail Sales (April)
Turkey GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1)/ Financial Stability Report
Italy GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)/ Inflation Rate YoY Prel (May)/ Industrial Sales (March)/ New Car Registrations (May)
Spain Current Account (March)
Slovenia Inflation Rate (May)
Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (April)/ M4 Money Supply (April)/ Mortgage Approvals & Lending (April)/ Nationwide Housing Prices (May)
Euro Area Inflation Rate YoY Flash (May)/ CPI Flash (May)
Greece Retail Sales (March)
Ireland Average Weekly Earnings YoY (Q1)/ Construction Output YoY (Q1)
Russia Balance of Trade (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)/ Corporate Profits (March)/ M2 Money Supply (April)
Ukraine Current Account (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)
South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (May)
Kenya Inflation Rate (May)

Saturday, June 1, 2024

Global

The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee will meet in Geneva, Switzerland, to discuss production quotas.
South Korea takes the Chair of the UN Security Council for the month of June.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele is inaugurated for a second term.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

India begins the 7th round of voting.
Today is Independence Day in Samoa, marking the day in 1962 when the country gained independence from New Zealand.

significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Iceland holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Kenya celebrates Madaraka Day, marking the day the country gained independence from the UK in 1963.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 2, 2024

Global

Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Mexico holds presidential, senatorial, and chamber of deputy’s elections. Claudia Sheinbaum (ruling party MORENA) is expected to win against her opponent, Xochitl Galvez (opposition party PAN).

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Serbia reruns Belgrade’s December elections. The rerun is a result of complaints of widespread voter fraud.
Italy celebrates Republic Day today, marking the day in 1946 when the country voted to become a republic following the end of World War II.

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