U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

May 28 - 31, 2024

Summer has arrived in Washington with the celebration of Memorial Day on Monday. Congress is out of session for the week, and there are no significant regulatory meetings or speeches (aside from CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam and Commissioners Kristen Johnson and Caroline Pham giving speeches at the IOSCO meeting in Athens, Greece.

Last week in Washington's regulatory world was another busy one. The House of Representatives passed an anti-CBDC bill that would stop the Federal Reserve from launching a central bank digital currency. We do not see the Senate taking up the bill. Still, the issue won't disappear as we expect it to be a constant secondary political issue on the campaign trail (we get questions about the chances of the Fed moving on launching a CBDC constantly in talks we give around the country – there is a lot of concern out there about it).  

The House also passed a crypto trading regulatory bill sponsored by House Financial Services Committee Chair Patrick McHenry (R-NC). Seen as a legacy-defining moment for McHenry, the bill got seventy-one Democrats to join with 208 Republicans to pass it. Among the Democrats who voted for it were former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and House Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-MA) – – despite the strong opposition of SEC Chair Gary Gensler.

Also last week, McHenry (R-NC) asked FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg to testify on June 12 on misconduct allegations at the agency. McHenry wrote a letter to Gruenberg saying, "Republican and Democratic members alike noted an inability to fully understand your responses relate to both the toxic workplace culture at the FDIC and your leadership at the agency."  

The pressure on FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg to step down is intensifying, with calls for his immediate resignation even before a successor is nominated and confirmed by the Senate. The situation may have worsened for Gruenberg with the release of a memo from the FDIC Inspector General, which reported allegations of misconduct involving senior officials that were not promptly disclosed to her office. This development further underscores the gravity of the misconduct allegations at the agency.  

Below is a listing of all the other significant regulatory-related events this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

• The Senate is out for the week in observance of Memorial Day.  However, the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Economic Policy Subcommittee (chaired by Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) will hold a field hearing in Boston, Massachusetts, entitled "The Economic and Health Impacts of Threats to Reproductive Rights."

House of Representatives

• The House is out for the week in observance of Memorial Day.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

• Tuesday, May 28, 1:05 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech entitled “AI and the Economy” at the Al-nomics: The Nexus of GenAI+ the Economy at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in San Francisco, California.

• Tuesday, May 28, TBD – Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly will speak a the Al-nomics: The Nexus of GenAI+ the Economy at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in San Francisco, California.

U.S. Treasury Department

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• Monday, May 27, 11:00 a.m. Athens, Greece Time – CFTC Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will participate in a Regulatory Workshop - “Retail Investor Protection in a Digital World: Finfluencers, Gamification and the Evolving Trading Landscape” at the IOSCO Annual Meeting in Athens, Greece.

• Monday, May 27, 4:00 p.m. Athens, Greece Time – CFTC Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will speak at a Regulatory Workshop titled “New SupTech: Exchange of Experiences” at the 49th Annual Meeting of the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) in Athens, Greece.

• Wednesday, May 29, 1:00 p.m. Athens, Greece Time – CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam will participate in a fireside chat at the CCP Global Annual General Meeting 2024 in Athens, Greece.

• Wednesday, May 29, 2:45 p.m. Athens Greece Time – CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam will keynote at the HCMC Public Conference “Climate in the Center of Economy” in Athens, Greece.

• Wednesday, May 29, 3:45 p.m. Athens, Greece Time – CFTC Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will speak on a panel titled “Digital Finance, Fintech and Crypto Assets: Supervision Challenges and Experiences Including Issues relating to Sustainability” at the Hellenic Capital Market Commission (HCMC) Public Conference at the IOSCO Annual Meeting in Athens, Greece.

FINRA

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• Wednesday, May 29 – 30 – The OCC hosts Project REACh Financial Inclusion Summit in Washington, D.C.  Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu will speak.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

• Monday/Tuesday, May 27 – 28 – The Institute for International Finance holds their IIF-Amazon Web Services-South East Asian Central Banks Centre Financial Services and Cloud Summit in Kuala Lumpur.

• Monday, May 27, 3:00 a.m. EDT – The Institute for International Finance holds its IIF ASEAN and China Roundtable in Kuala Lumpur.

Think Tanks and Other Events

• Friday, May 30, 2:30 p.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a webcast entitled “Understanding the new dynamics of agri-food trade: Perspectives from Pascal Lamay.”

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reads

May 24 - 27, 2024

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list. 

European Union Elections 2024

• European Parliament Elections 2024: What Is at Stake?    Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy/ZBW/CEPS

  In June 2024, EU citizens will vote in the European Parliament elections – two years into Russia’s war in Ukraine and on European values, after the COVID-19 pandemic and the finalization of Brexit, and with the possibility of Donald Trump winning the US presidential election later this year. In a turbulent geopolitical environment, the European Parliament elections will reshape the political landscape in Brussels, where traditional parties are being challenged and an increasing tilt towards right-wing governance is unmistakable. The current European Commission has adopted several major legislative initiatives, but a new Commission may set new priorities and take a different political direction. In the lead-up to the elections, this Forum focuses on some of the issues that will take center stage for voters and define the next phase of European politics.

• EU Election 2024: Complete Guide to News, Polls, and Key Players   Politico EU

  The 2024 European Parliamentary elections are going to be held from June 6 – 9.  It is the first European Parliamentary election since Brexit (of which the UK’s previous seats were distributed to other countries)and will elect 720 members of the European Parliament to choose the European Commission President and help to decide the makeup of the European Commission going forward.  This election is expected to be one of the more contentious as a number of far-right parties have emerged as ahead in polls.  This site carries all the latest polls and analysis of what is going on election-wise.

• Winds of Change: The EU’s green agenda after the European Parliament election   European Council on Foreign Relations

  The next European Commission and Parliament are likely to place security and competitiveness at the center of their quest for a more geopolitical Europe.  With concerns about the costs of the green transition, growing trade tensions between the US and China, and uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the US presidential election and Russia’s war on Ukraine, the EU will probably find it much harder to make further progress on climate action over the next five years. These geopolitical developments – and the way the EU responds to them – will have far-reaching consequences for the EU’s trade and technology decisions, fossil fuel phase-out, and climate diplomacy. The case for climate action remains clear, including its role in European security and competitiveness. In this challenging context, climate progressives will have to deploy compelling narratives, strategic resourcing, and diplomatic engagement to advance the best possible climate agenda during the EU’s next institutional cycle.
  

• The Front-Runners for the Next European Commission   Politico EU

  The European Commission’s top jobs will all soon be up for grabs again after next month’s European election. Which country will get the all-powerful trade commissioner job and oversee the EU’s impending trade war with China? Will the Poles secure a newly created defense portfolio to square up to their arch-rivals, the Russians? And who will get to police U.S. tech giants like Apple and Google as Europe’s next competition chief? Even before the June 6-9 election, maneuvering is underway to net the prize slots. Each of the EU’s 27 countries gets a commissioner job in the highly political post-election carve-up, but there’s a tooth-and-nail fight to determine who gets what. Trade and competition are the blue-ribbon portfolios with genuine power; those involving sport, education, and multilingualism are the kiss of death.   

India

• India’s Engagement with the Middle East Reflects New Delhi’s Changing Worldview   War on the Rocks

  In the early 1990s, India responded to the end of the Cold War with a new “Look East” policy, which it subsequently rebranded as “Act East” in 2014. Today, India has developed a “Think West” policy focused on what those in the West call the Middle East. So which way is India thinking, looking, and acting today?

Africa

• Rethinking US Africa Policy Amid Changing Geopolitical Realities   Texas National Security Review

  Since 2020, Africa has seen more political unrest, violent extremism, and democratic reversals than any other region in the world. A wave of coups has washed across the Sahel and West Africa, leaving authoritarians in power in numerous countries. In addition, the continent has served as a stage for the escalating great-power competition between China, Russia, and the United States. U.S. engagement with Africa has long been deprioritized in Washington, with successive administrations devoting scant attention and resources to advancing democracy and resolving conflicts. Thus far, the Biden administration has maintained this pattern, which reflects the persistent tension between an interests-based and values-based U.S. foreign policy. Nevertheless, there are a few actions the United States can take to reinvigorate democracy and stabilize the region, such as emphasizing development and diplomacy over military responses and stepping up cooperation with allies and partners to reduce the influence of China and Russia.

Political Economy

• Austerity, economic vulnerability, and populism    American Journal of Political Science

  Governments have repeatedly adjusted fiscal policy in recent decades. We examine the political effects of these adjustments in Europe since the 1990s using both district-level election outcomes and individual-level voting data. We expect austerity to increase populist votes, but only among economically vulnerable voters, who are hit the hardest by austerity. We identify economically vulnerable regions as those with a high share of low-skilled workers, workers in manufacturing, and in jobs with a high routine-task intensity. The
  analysis of district-level elections demonstrates that austerity increases support for populist parties in economically vulnerable regions,  but has little effect in less vulnerable regions. The individual-level analysis confirms these findings. Our results suggest that the success of populist parties hinges on the government’s failure to protect the losers of structural economic change. The economic origins of populism are thus not purely external; the populist backlash is triggered by internal factors, notably public policies

• Social Security’s Financial Reality is Worse Than Reported   American Enterprise Institute

  The Social Security Trustees recently released their annual Report on the projected finances of the program. The media, advocates, and the Commissioner himself trumpeted that the Report had good news: The program’s finances have improved over the prior year, the projected Trust Fund exhaustion date had moved out a year to 2035, and the automatic benefit cuts upon insolvency were smaller, 17 percent instead of the 20 percent estimated in the prior year’s Report.  A closer look, however, reveals this optimism is misplaced.  The report fails to accurately reflect long-term declines in fertility rates. When the trend toward lower fertility is incorporated accurately in future Reports, the picture of the program’s finances will look much worse, and therefore, the realistic cost of needed reforms will rise.

• Consulting Firms Have Stumbled Into a Geopolitical Minefield   Foreign Policy

  Not so long ago, consultancies and other information brokers could work easily with different clients in different countries. Just as they talked to competing firms, they advised competing governments. But what may have seemed banal then may now be depicted as smoking gun evidence that companies are helping the enemy. For decades, business leaders assumed that globalization meant market expansion. Their big worry was gaining and keeping market share and competing with their rivals. Now, they are being thrown unprepared into a world where globalization means geopolitical risk—and information is the riskiest asset of all.

• How Do US Firms Withstand Foreign Industrial Policies?   National Bureau of Economic Research

  China’s industrial policies (“Five-Year Plans”) displace U.S. production/employment and heighten plant closures in the same industries as those targeted by the policies in China. The impact was not anticipated by the stock market, but U.S. companies in the "treated industries" suffered a valuation loss afterward. Firms shift production to upstream or downstream industries benefiting from the boost or offshore to government-endorsed industries in China. Such within-firm adjustments offset the direct impact. U.S. firms are better able to withstand foreign government interventions provided that they enjoy flexibility, including preexisting business toeholds in the "beneficiary" industries, financial access, and labor fluidity.

Global Week Ahead

Memorial Day is a week from this Monday, traditionally seen as the beginning of Summer in the US. Much of the rest of the Northern Hemisphere is roughly on the same seasonal scheduling, and we suspect we are looking forward to (hopefully) a peaceful and somewhat relaxing summer. But before we get to our beach vacations or mountain hideaways for a break, plenty is going on geopolitically.  

First, as we got ready to publish this note, news broke that Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and other senior Iranian officials had gone down in a helicopter crash in the northwest sector of Iran. The video footage of the rescue effort showed a dense fog hanging over the mountainous terrain, and no one had found the wreckage yet, nor had we known who was still alive.  

However, the impact of any Iranian leadership will likely worry the markets. We would note, however, that Raisi is not the ultimate leader – Supreme Leader Khamenei is – and the idea of any internal struggles or regional risk developing from the crash is unlikely for many reasons (which we would be more than happy to discuss if you want separately).

Also, this week, Taiwan inaugurates a new president on Monday. Lai Ching-te is replacing Tsai Ing-wen, and Lai’s inauguration speech will be closely watched for signs of how he will navigate the tense cross-strait relationship with China. Lai’s cabinet choices and his experience in and around the government suggest a status quo relationship with Beijing going forward (not great, but hopefully not getting more inflamed).

Meanwhile, later this week, the Prime Ministers of Japan, China, and South Korea will gather for the first time since 2019 for trilateral meetings in Seoul, South Korea. China—which is Japan’s and South Korea’s largest trading partner—will likely warn the two countries about their growing security and trade engagement with the US. However, a good portion of the talks will be on mutual concerns and interests, such as climate change, the situation in North Korea, and trade.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, G7 finance ministers and central bank heads will gather in Italy later this week to discuss the global economic outlook and the economic impact of the Russian War on Ukraine. Watch for further decisions on whether to seize Russian assets held in the West to fund the Ukrainian defense efforts.  

Regarding economic data releases this week, the Federal Reserve releases its meeting minutes on Wednesday. Staying in the US, the University of Michigan Survey comes out on Friday, and durable goods orders are also available. 

In Europe, markets will watch the UK inflation data report, the German PPI report, and Germany’s Q1 GDP figures.

In Asia, Japan releases its CPI on Friday, while China provides its monthly decision on its loan prime rate. Finally, central bank monetary meetings will be held in Indonesia, South Korea, and Turkey this week. 

Below is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, May 19, 2024

Global

·       The UN’s 10th World Water Forum, under the theme ‘Water for Shared Prosperity’, will take play 18-25 May in Bali, Indonesia. Heads of state, heads of international organizations, high level government officials, experts, scholars, entrepreneurs and economists from all over the world will share their knowledges, experiences, and practices regarding a wide range of topics related to water.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Dominican Republic holds presidential and legislative elections.  Incumbent President Luis Abinader, from the Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM), is expected to win a second term.

·       President Joe Biden delivers address at Morehouse College’s commencement ceremony.  Protests are expected over the US support for Israel and a number of faculty, and students have demanded the invitation be rescinded.

·       U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will travel to Saudi Arabia and Israel through May 19.

·       Mexican opposition supporters will march in Mexico City and other major cities across the country to support democracy and partially to support presidential candidate Xochitl Galvez.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives the Commencement Remarks at the Georgetown Law Commencement Ceremony in Washington, D.C.

·       The Atlanta Federal Reserve holds their 28th Annual Financial Markets Conference.  A number of central bankers, market participants, and other experts will be speaking.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Cambodia and China will conduct "Golden Dragon" military exercises through May 30.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Truck drivers in South Africa will go on strike across the country to protest the employment of foreign nationals within the local logistics industry.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

  Monday, May 20, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security. In the afternoon, it is expected to hold a vote on a draft resolution on non-proliferation.

·       The UN’s Global Transparency Forum is set to take place from 20 to 21 May 2024 at the United Nations University in Tokyo, Japan. The forum will discuss the pivotal role of transparency in climate action as required under the Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF) of the Paris Agreement. The forum is organized by the Capacity-building Initiative for Transparency - Global Support Programme (CBIT-GSP), with support from the Global Environment Facility (GEF), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the UNEP Copenhagen Climate Centre (UNEP-CCC), UNDP Climate Promise and it is hosted by the Ministry of the Environment of Japan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to give welcome remarks before the 2024 Financial Markets Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.  Later that day, at 6:00 p.m. he will moderate a session at the Conference’s dinner.

·       US Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Bank of New York jointly host the annual International Roles of the US Dollar conference today and tomorrow in Washington. Speakers include Fed governor Christopher Waller.

·       The Peterson Institute for International Economics hosts a virtual discussion entitled "The U.S. economy and monetary policy” with Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller.  

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech entitled “U.S. Economic Outlook and Housing Price Dynamics” at the Mortgage Bankers.

·       Mexico Retail Sales (March)

·       Chile Current Account (Q1)/ GDP Growth Rate (Q1)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Argentina Leading Indicator (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwan holds the presidential inauguration ceremonies for Lai Ching-te who is replacing Tsai Ing-wen.  It also starts an unprecedented third-term in power for Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).  Lai's inauguration speech will be closely watched for signs of how he will navigate the tense cross-strait relationship with China.

·       Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman arrives in Tokyo for a four-day official visit, accompanied by Saudi business leaders for talks with Japanese companies on investments and climate technology co-operation.

·       India begins its 5th phase of elections, Lok Sabha.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Financial markets closed for the fifth phase of the parliamentary elections.

·       Thailand GDP Growth Rate (Q1)

·       Indonesia Current Account (Q1)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Japan Tertiary Industry Index (March)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (April)/ Current Account (Q1)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's term will end.  He then becomes the “acting” president has elections have been suspended due to the war.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Financial markets in Germany, Switzerland, Denmark, Norway, Belgium, and Austria are closed for Whi Monday (The day after Pentecost holiday).

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent speaks at the New Evidence on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism workshop in London.

·       Italy Construction Output (March)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (March)/ Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Slovakia Unemployment Rate (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kazakhstan Business Confidence (Q1)

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (April)

·       Oman M2 Money Supply (March)/ Total Credit (March)

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kenya GDP Growth Rate (Q4)

Tuesday, May 21, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an Open Debate on the protection of civilians in armed conflict: 25th Anniversary of SCR 1265 (1999).

·       The UN’s Trade and Development Organization hosts the inaugural Global Supply Chain Forum in Bridgetown, Barbados.

·       The OECD’s Forum on Responsible Mineral Supply Chains will be held through May 24 in Paris.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Wall Street Journal’s Future of Everything Festival begins and runs through May 23 in New York.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to give opening remarks before the"2024 Investing in Rural America Conference: Building and Maintaining Momentum" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to give "welcome back" remarks before the 2024 Financial Markets Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to give opening remarks at 2024 Governance and Culture Reform Conference.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives welcoming remarks at the Third Conference on the International Roles of the U.S. Dollar, Washington, D.C.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to moderate "Central Banking in the Post-Pandemic Financial System" panel before the 2024 Financial Markets Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

·       USA Redbook (May/18/API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/17)

·       Canada Inflation Rate (April)/ CPI Median (April)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (April)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (April)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Indo-Pacific Business Forum begins in Manila.  Co-hosted by the US and the Philippines, the event allows networking and discussions about critical infrastructure needs in the region. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (May)/ RBA Meeting Minutes

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (April)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (May/21)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol participate in the AI Seoul Summit, building on the Bletchley Declaration and the discussions of the Summit hosted by the UK last year.

·       EU foreign affairs ministers will meet in Brussels, Belgium, where Spain, Ireland and others are expected to recognize the state of Palestine. 

·       The 8th EU-Republic of Moldova Association Council will be held in Brussels.   The meeting is considered particularly important as Moldova has increasingly become a focus for Russian interference with rising risk of further destabilization.  There is a break-away providence of Moldova – Transnistria – which has sworn their alliance to Moscow.

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  Minister are expected to discuss Ukraine, security and defense issues, general trade and investment competitiveness, and the next institutional EU cycle.

·       The EU Transport, Telecommunication, and Energy Council (Telecom) meets in Brussels to discuss collaborative approach for consistent implementation of the recently adopted legislation in the digital field. The Council will also approve conclusions on the future of EU’s digital policy and on the future of cybersecurity. Over an informal lunch, ministers will discuss the subject of promoting digital skills for an inclusive digital transformation and inclusion. Finally, as an item without discussion, the Council is expected to adopt the artificial intelligence act.

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal Market & Industry) meets in Brussels. The ministers are expected to approve Council conclusions on “A competitive European industry driving our green, digital and resilient industrial future”.

·       German Economy Minister Robert Habeck attends the start of the main construction phase of NeuConnect, the first direct power link between Germany and the U.K., in Wilhemshaven, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey delivers a lecture in honor of London School of Economics Charles Goodhart, hosted by the Financial Markets Group.

·       Bank of England External Member of the Financial Policy Committee Randall Kroszner gives the keynote speech at the London City Week Conference entitled “Balancing the productivity opportunities of financial technology and AI against the potential risks” in London.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Financial Market Infrastructure Sasha Mills gives a speech at the London City Week Conference in London.

·       Germany PPI (April)

·       Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech/ Current Account (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Construction Output (March)

·       Greece Current Account (March)

·       CBI Industrial Trends Orders (May

·       Slovenia PPI (April)

·       Italy Current Account (March)

·       Hungary Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (April)

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (May)

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (April)/ Total Credit Growth  (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The International Energy Agency’s annual Global Conference on Energy Efficiency will take place in Nairobi through May 22.  This is the first time the Conference has been held in Africa.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (March)

·       Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, May 22, 2024 

Global

·       The World Trade Organization (WTO) holds its General Council meeting in Geneva, Switzerland.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to go into consultations on the 1718 Committee (this goes to UN sanctions on North Korea).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development hosts a conference on economic and trade policies in Latin America in Paris, France at the OECD headquarters.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes published, MBA Purchase Index (May/17)/ Existing Home Sales (April)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (May/17)

·       Paraguay PPI (April)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (May)/ PPI (April)

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (May)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Machinery Orders (March)

·       New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (April)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit & Lending Facility Rate (May)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Australia RBA Payments System Board Meeting

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Foreign Ministers of Poland, France, and Germany – the “Weimar Triangle” – will meet in Thuringia, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a video message at an ESMA online event focused on the launch of its position paper on the effectiveness of capital markets in the EU.

·       Bank of England deputy governor for financial stability Sarah Breeden speaks at the European Commission technical workshop in Brussels on macroprudential policies for non-bank financial intermediation.

·       The ECB Governing Council holds a retreat hosted by the Bank of Ireland.

·       Euro Area New Car Registrations (April)

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (April)/ PPI Input & Output (April)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing (April)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (April)/ Employment Growth (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ PPI (April)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (April)

·       Russia PPI (April)

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (April)

Thursday, May 23, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an Open Debate on maintenance of international peace and security: Strengthening the role of the African state in addressing global security and development challenges.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Biden hosts Kenyan President William Ruto to celebrate 60 years of diplomatic relations.  Talks between the two leaders are expected to focus on clean energy, mutual trade and a possible free trade agreement, and security concerns in Africa.

·       US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen awarded honorary doctorate by Frankfurt School of Finance & Management in Frankfurt, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to participate in a virtual question-and-answer session with students in MBA macroeconomic class at the Stanford Graduate School of Business.

·       Brazil BCB National Monetary Council Meeting

·       Mexico GDP Growth Rate Final (Q1)/ Economic Activity (March)/ Mid-month Inflation Rate  (May)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (April)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (April)/ Initial Jobless Claims (May/18)/ S&P Global Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (May)/ New Home Sales (April)/ Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Index (May)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (April)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (March)

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

·       Peru Current Account (Q1)/ GDP Growth Rate (Q1)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nikkei hosts the  29th Future of Asia Forum in Tokyo through May 24. This year's main theme is "Asian leadership in an uncertain world." Political leaders set to attend the two-day event include Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, Singapore Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong, Vietnam Deputy Prime Minister Le Minh Khai and Cambodia's Deputy Prime Minister Sun Chanthol.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Retail Sales (Q1)

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (May)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (May)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (May/18)/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (May)

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       India HSBC Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (May)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (April)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Candidates vying to head next European Commission Presidency hold debate in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Hungary Gross Wage (March)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (May)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/17)/ Overnight Borrowing & Lending Rate (May)

·       France HCOB Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (May)

·       Germany HCOB Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (May)

·       Euro Area HCOB Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (May)/ Consumer Confidence Flash (May)/ Negotiated Wage Growth (Q1)

·       Poland Retail Sales (April)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (May)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (May)/ BoE Pill Speech

·       Slovakia Current Account (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, May 24, 2024 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech at the Reykjavik Economic Conference, Reykjavik, Iceland.

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (May)/ Current Account (April)/ Foreign Direct Investment (April)

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (May)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (April)/ Current Account (Q1)

·       USA Durable Goods Orders (April)/ Michigan Current Conditions Final (May)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (May/24)

·       Chile PPI (April)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in East Timor, celebrating when the country gained its independence from Portugal in 1975.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (May)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Japan Inflation Rate (April)

·       Singapore GDP Growth Rate Final (Q1)/ Current Account (Q1)/ Industrial Production (April)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (April)/ Leading Index (March)

·       Taiwan M2 Money Supply (April)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/17)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO’s Parliamentary Assembly Spring Session opens in Sofia, Bulgaria.

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet with Portuguese Prime Minister Luís Montenegro in Berlin.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a keynote speech at the Bonn-Frankfurt-Mannheim PhD Conference in Bonn, Germany.

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (May)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Germany GDP Growth Rate Final (Q1)

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls (Q1)

·       France Business Confidence (May)/ Business Climate Indicator (May)

·       Spain PPI (April)

·       Turkey Tourist Arrivals (April)

·       Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (April)

·       Poland M3 Money Supply (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (April)/ Private Bank Lending (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Republic Day in Cameroon, celebrating the establishment of a unitary government in 1972 and doing away with the federal system that had been in place.

·       Today is Independence Day in Eritrea, celebrating the day in 1991 when the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front moved in the capital of Asmara and reinstated independence after a war with Ethiopia. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (April)

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate (Q1)

Saturday, May 25, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Revolution Day in Argentina. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India begins its sixth phase of elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Jordan celebrates Independence Day today, marking the day in 1946 when the country gained its freedom from the United Kingdom.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 26, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Guyana celebrates Independence Day, marking the day in 1966 when they gained their independence from the United Kingdom.

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Prime Ministers of China, Japan, and South Korea are scheduled to hold meetings today and through tomorrow in Seoul, South Korea.  China is Japan and South Korea’s largest trading partner, and all three nations have concerns over North Korea’s behavior and posture.  The meetings will also focus on climate change and other areas of mutual concern. 

·       Cambodia holds provincial elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emanual Macron begins an official state visit to Germany.

·       Lithuania holds presidential election run-off votes.

·       Today is Independence Day in Georgia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Vice President Piero Cipollone gives a speech entitled "Climate change and monetary policy" at Festival dell'Economia di Trento 2024 in Trento, Italy.

·       Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Unemployment Rate (April)/ Manufacturing Production (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week

May 20 - 24, 2024

This coming Monday is Memorial Day, the traditional beginning of Summer in Washington and the rest of the US. In advance of the three-day holiday, regulators are engaging in several meetings and speaking events. Of particular note, Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr is giving two important speeches this week on regulation while the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank is holding its 28th Annual Financial Markets Conference.  

Also this week, the Investment Company Institute is holding its annual meeting in Washington, and SEC Chair Gary Gensler will speak and participate in a fireside chat to discuss issues of concern to the mutual fund industry. 

Washington is still talking about the ongoing crisis at the FDIC in the wake of the independent report implicating FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg for bullying and inappropriate behavior and tolerating bad behavior among senior managers. Gruenberg endured two grueling hearings before the House Financial Services Committee and Senate Banking Committee last week but seems to have survived as a number of Congressional Democrats came to his defense. Gruenberg continues to refuse to step down, but we believe the pressure will continue, and the situation will remain tense at the FDIC.

Also last week, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau had a big week, triumphantly winning a Supreme Court case (7-2 vote) upholding the agency's legitimacy and ability to bring regulations against payday lenders. This ends years of uncertainty about the future of the CFPB and has boosted CFPB Director Rohit Chopra's agenda, which focuses on credit card fees. "The CFPB will be able to forge ahead with our law enforcement work," Chopra told reporters after the decision was handed down.

Reviewing Congress last week, the House Financial Services Committee moved several pieces of legislation for the full House of Representatives to vote on in the coming weeks. One is legislation making fewer banks subject to key regulations such as the Volcker Rule while scrutinizing the Federal Reserve's bank merger, stress testing, and discount processes. Another bill they passed would direct the SEC to conduct cost-benefit analyses of its rules and review them every five years.

Both bills have little chance of advancing once they pass the House and are sent to the Senate Banking Committee.

Below is a listing of all the other significant regulatory-related events this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

U.S. Senate

·       Tuesday, May 21, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Finance Committee holds a hearing entitled “Child Savings Accounts and Other Tax-Advantaged Accounts Benefitting American Children.”

·       Wednesday, May 22, 2:30 p.m. – The Senate Banking Committee’s Economic Policy Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Protecting Consumers' Pocketbooks: Lowering Food Prices and Combatting Corporate Price Gouging and Consolidation."

House of Representatives

·       Wednesday, May 22, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Housing and Insurance Subcommittee holds a hearing on "PHA (Public Housing Agencies) Oversight: How Scandals and Mismanagement Harm Residents and Taxpayers."

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

·       Sunday – Wednesday, May 19 – 22 – The Atlanta Federal Reserve holds its 28th Annual Financial Markets Conference.  A number of central bankers, market participants, and other experts will be speaking.

·       Monday, May 20, 7:45 a.m. – Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to give welcome remarks before the 2024 Financial Markets Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.  Later that day, at 6:00 p.m., he will moderate a session at the Conference’s dinner.

·       Monday, May 20, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics hosts a virtual discussion entitled "The U.S. economy and monetary policy” with Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller.  

·       Monday, May 20, 10:30 a.m. – Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech entitled “U.S. Economic Outlook and Housing Price Dynamics” at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Secondary and Capital Markets Conference, New York, N.Y.

·       Tuesday, May 21, 8:00 a.m. – Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to give opening remarks before the"2024 Investing in Rural America Conference: Building and Maintaining Momentum" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

·       Tuesday, May 21, 8:10 a.m.: Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic will give "welcome back" remarks before the 2024 Financial Markets Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

·       Tuesday, May 21, 8:45 a.m.: New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams will give the opening remarks at the 2024 Governance and Culture Reform Conference.

·       Tuesday, May 21, 9:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives welcoming remarks at the Third Conference on the International Roles of the U.S. Dollar, Washington, D.C.

·       Tuesday, May 21, 6:00 p.m. – Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to moderate the "Central Banking in the Post-Pandemic Financial System" panel before the 2024 Financial Markets Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

·       Monday, May 20, 9:00 a.m. – Federal Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr entitled “Monetary Policy and Bank Regulation” at the 2024 Financial Markets Conference, Fernandina Beach, Florida.

·       Thursday, May 23, 2:00 p.m. – Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to participate in a virtual question-and-answer session with students in MBA macroeconomic class at the Stanford Graduate School of Business.

·       Friday, May 24, 9:35 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech at the Reykjavik Economic Conference, Reykjavik, Iceland.

U.S. Treasury Department

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time. 

Securities and Exchange Commission

·       Wednesday, May 23, 8:30 a.m. – SEC Chair Gary Gensler will participate in a fireside chat at the Investment Company Institute’s 2024 Leadership Summit in Washington, DC.

·       Thursday, May 24, 11:00 a.m. – Thursday at 11:00 a.m., SEC Enforcement Director Gurbir Grewal and other division officials will speak at the Securities Enforcement Forum West 2024 conference.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

·       Monday, May 20, 11:00 a.m. London Time – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will speak on a panel discussing international financial regulation at City Week 2024.

·       Tuesday, May 21, 11:00 a.m. London Time – CFTC Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will speak at a featured fireside chat on the CFTC’s role in regulating digital assets at City Week 2024.

·       Wednesday, May 22, 9:10 a.m. London Time – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will participate in a keynote interview at the Financial Times’ Moral Money Summit.

FINRA

 ·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

·       Wednesday, May 22, 10:00 a.m. – the NCUA Board holds an open meeting.  You can find the agenda HERE.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

·       Monday, May 20, 1:00 p.m. – The FTC holds a closed meeting.

·       Wednesday, May 23, 1:00 p.m. – The FTC holds an Open Meeting.

·       Wednesday, May 23, 2:00 p.m. – The FTC holds an event entitled “Supporting Older Adults to Fight Against Fraud”

Farm Credit Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

·       Tuesday  – Wednesday, May 21 – 23 – The Investment Company Institute holds the 2024 Leadership Summit in Washington, D.C.  House Financial Services Committee Chair Patrick McHenry (R-NC) and SEC Chair Gary Gensler will speak.

Think Tanks and Other Events

·       Tuesday, May 21, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 9 a.m., on "The U.S. economy and monetary policy” with Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller.  

·       Tuesday, May 21, 10:00 a.m. – The Brookings Institution holds a discussion entitled “Powering US prosperity and competitiveness through place-based investment”.  Alejandra Castillo, the Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Economic Development, will speak.

·       Tuesday, May 21, 12:30 p.m. – SIFMA holds a Department of Labor Fiduciary Rule Implementation Workshop.

·       Tuesday, May 21, 2:30 p.m. – The R Street Institute holds a discussion entitled “Insurance Fraud: the 300 Billion Dollar Crime.”

·       Tuesday, May 21, 3:00 p.m. – The Cato Institute holds a virtual discussion entitled “Would Proposed Antitrust Changes Help or Harm Startups and Small Business?”

·       Tuesday, May 22, 11:00 a.m. – SIFMA holds their latest webinar on U.S. – China relations entitled “U.S. – China Relations: Technology National Security, and Financial Services.”

·       Wednesday, May 22, 8:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance holds an online discussion entitled “IIF Datatalk: Bigtech, Platforms, and Financial Services.”

·       Wednesday, May 22, 1:00 p.m. – The American Enterprise Institute holds an in-person/virtual event entitled “The Federal Reserve and Financial Stability Risk.”  

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reads

May 17 - 19, 2024

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list. 

Critical Minerals

• Mineral Demands for Resilient Semiconductor Supply Chains CSIS

  The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is the principal strategic competitor of the United States. In addition to antagonism in other domains, this rivalry entails escalating technological competition. No country is technologically self-sufficient, but the United States’ reliance on China’s considerable market share in the critical minerals industry for semiconductor supply chains creates a dependency that turns a trade imbalance into a potential national security threat. Chips are ubiquitous in all modern technology, and their relevance and worth will only expand in the coming years. The countries that are able to secure their own supply chains for critical technologies will be in a position to write the rules of global economic governance for years to come.

  Americas

• The Woman Inheriting AMLO’s Revolution Foreign Policy

  Most Mexicans began to seriously entertain the idea that Claudia Sheinbaum could be Mexico’s first female president in December 2022, when her trademark slicked-back ponytail began to appear on billboards across the country. Paid for by legislators in Sheinbaum’s party, Morena, the signage was intended to make the former climate scientist and then-Mexico City mayor known nationwide.
  

• Mexico’s Post-Election Fiscal Reality Check   Americas Quarterly

  Mexico is three weeks away from one of its most consequential elections in recent history. Much is at play on June 2, as the outcome of this vote is likely to have economic and political implications that will shape the nation’s future for decades. Why is there so much at stake? From an optimistic perspective, the opportunity nearshoring brings to the country is likely to become more evident in the next six years, but only if the new administration manages to tackle the significant bottlenecks Mexico still faces in broad areas such as energy, infrastructure, security, water, human capital, and its regulatory environment. From a less upbeat vantage point, Mexico’s democracy could be at risk if the election results end up in a landslide.  Notwithstanding the result, no matter who wins the presidential race, the post-June 2 party will likely be short, as the current list of challenges—and inherent risks—the next president will face is probably the most fearsome in 25 years.
  

• War Has Changed. We Didn’t.  That Reality Will Cost Us  Hudson Institute’s Arsenal of Democracy Podcast

  War is rapidly changing. Countries like China are already moving force structure and planning toward a new type of conflict. Meanwhile, the United States overspends and delays the production of systems like aircraft carriers that could soon fall into the category of “a weapon that you can’t afford to lose.” The Sagamore Institute’s Dr. Jerry Hendrix joins the show to explain how the US and its industrial base can change course to prepare for future conflicts before a dangerous “comeuppance” shocks us into action.  This episode features Dr. Jerry Hendrix, a Senior Fellow at the Sagamore Institute.

Russia’s War on Ukraine

• “Russia’s Murky Future”  The Foreign Affairs Interview Podcast

  The noted Russian scholar and biographer of Josef Stalin, Steven Kotkin,  gives a fascinating interview on what is going on inside Russia.  When Russia botched its invasion of Ukraine and the West quickly came together in support of Kyiv, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s grip on power appeared shakier than ever. Last summer, an attempted coup even seemed to threaten his rule. But today, Putin looks confident. With battlefield progress in Ukraine and political turmoil ahead of the U.S. election in November, there’s reason to think things are turning in his favor.

Australia

• Australia’s New Gas Strategy Makes for Flawed Foreign Policy The Interpreter

  The latest Australian federal budget, handed down on Tuesday night, pledges unprecedented support to making Australia a “renewable superpower”. Yet a new gas strategy that preceded it promises to keep Australia and its Asian energy partners tethered to this fossil fuel for decades. While fiscal commitments now favor Australia’s greener energy engagement, Canberra should wind back broader regulatory support to gas. This would quicken the timeframe in which Australia might provide for both the energy security needs of Asia and the climate security needs of the Pacific.

China

• China Has Gotten the Trade War it Deserves   The Atlantic

  A global trade war is starting, and China is at the center of it. A reckoning for Beijing’s economic model, which is designed to promote Chinese industry at the expense of the rest of the world, has long been coming. China’s trading partners have had enough. The result will be a wave of protectionism, with potentially dire consequences for both China and the global economy.

Global Financial Markets and Economics

• Emerging Threats to Financial Markets  RAND

  In early 2021, a freewheeling, freethinking group of investors on Reddit decided to flex some collective muscle. They plowed their money into GameStop, a video game retailer that several big hedge funds had bet against. The stock price shot up, some people made millions—and, to the delight of those on Reddit, the hedge funds had some very bad days.

Asymmetric Threats

• Contested Connectivity: Cyber Threats in the Asia-Pacific   International Institute for Strategic Studies

  Asia-Pacific countries are facing increasing numbers of state-backed hacking operations serving geopolitical and economic purposes. They are also getting better at conducting them. Domestic and foreign-policy ambitions are manifesting in the information space, where state-linked actors are contesting state adversaries, political opponents, and world views both overtly through activities such as defacement (hacking a target website and replacing its content with the hackers’ own message), and covertly, via disinformation operations. While basic cyber best practice is still out of reach for the least cyber-capable states, a couple of regional states could be considered amongst the most cyber capable globally. Forging a greater range of international partnerships between governments and industry is likely to boost the region’s resilience in cyberspace. Political will and geopolitical alignments will likely shape how that unfolds.

Demographics

• Birth Dearth or Baby Boom?   American Enterprise Institute

  Writing in the Wall Street Journal earlier this week, Greg Ip and Janet Adamy explored the possibility that the world’s population may peak and begin to fall far sooner than demographers have previously projected: “The world is at a startling demographic milestone. Sometime soon, the global fertility rate will drop below the point needed to keep the population constant. It may have already happened. Fertility is falling almost everywhere for women across all levels of income, education, and labor-force participation. The falling birthrates come with huge implications for the way people live, how economies grow and the standings of the world’s superpowers.”

• Addressing Demographic Headwinds in Japan: A Long-term Perspective OECD

  Japan faces serious demographic headwinds. Under current fertility, employment, and immigration rates, the population would fall by 45% by 2100 and employment by 52%. Given the challenges of a shrinking and ageing population, the government has pledged to “create a children-first economic society and reverse the birth rate decline”. One priority is to strengthen the weak financial position of youth, which leads many to delay or forgo marriage and children. Making it easier to combine paid work and family is also critical so that women are not forced to choose between a career and children.

Recommended Weekend Reads

May 10 - 12, 2024

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list. 

Americas

• Mexico and the United States Need to Talk About China Now  Foreign Policy

  Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is rarely shy about criticizing foreign governments—usually that of the United States or other Latin American nations. Yet in January, López Obrador published a video touting his “very good” relationship with the people and government of China during a meeting with Beijing’s ambassador to Mexico. This was no accident. The video came just one day after an explosive report by ProPublica on alleged narco money in López Obrador’s various presidential campaigns, a story that the Mexican president said was part of a media campaign against him by the U.S. government. His meeting with the Chinese ambassador was intended to send a message, but it was also part of a broader trend. During López Obrador’s sexenio, China’s political and economic activity in Mexico has grown significantly. With his successor taking office on Oct. 1, Mexico’s approach to relations with China could shift or continue on a path that is likely to increase tensions with Washington.

• The Wrath of Khan: How Antitrust Policy Can Undermine U.S. National Security  Center for Strategic & International Studies

  To give credit where it is due, today’s title comes from my colleague Jim Lewis, who is coauthor of a report CSIS released on May 3: “Beyond Economics: How U.S. Policies Can Undermine National Security Goals” This white paper describes a range of U.S. policies that appear to be at odds with our national security goals and makes six recommendations for reconciling the differences. The paper begins with an explanation of why technology, particularly critical and emerging technologies (CET), is essential to national security. Space does not permit repeating all of that here, but just think semiconductors, and you’ll get the picture. Our defense infrastructure depends on information and communications technology, and that is only going to become truer in the future.

• Colombia’s Uncertainty Is Sinking Investment and More   Americas Quarterly

  Rising interest rates and a corporate tax rate among the world’s highest help explain the massive drop in Colombia’s fixed investment—a 9% decline in real terms to represent only 17.8% of the nation’s GDP—but they are only part of the story. Increased economic and political uncertainty has also played a significant role as President Gustavo Petro faces a pivotal moment in his four-year term to get at least some of his key reforms approved by Congress.   To the increasing doubts stemming from the lengthy discussions of the structural reforms, the government has fanned more uncertainties by announcing controversial measures in strategic economic sectors while floating the idea of a new Constitution. All are having a compounded effect on both investment and Colombia’s growth prospects. On May 2, the OECD urged authorities to apply policies to revive investment while forecasting a meager GDP expansion of 1.2% for 2024.

• Investment in US factories has soared since the end of 2022  Peterson Institute for International Economics

  Real business investment in manufacturing structures in the United States has risen sharply since the end of 2022. The amount of investment in this category in the first quarter of 2024 was about 80 percent higher than the amount at the end of 2022. “Industrial policy” legislation enacted in recent years likely helped fuel this sharp increase. For example, the Inflation Reduction Act and the Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors (CHIPS) Act, both enacted in 2022, provided large subsidies for the renewable energy and semiconductor industries. Although investment in manufacturing structures represents a relatively small part of overall US economic activity, the recent increases in this category have boosted annualized GDP growth by about ¼ percentage point since the end of 2022. Notwithstanding high interest rates, other types of US business investment have also increased. Altogether, private business fixed investment has contributed about ½ percentage point to annualized real GDP growth since the end of 2022.

• The Dollar versus the Euro as International Reserve Currencies  National Bureau of Economic Research

  This study begin by examining determinants of aggregate foreign exchange reserve holdings by central banks (size of issuing country’s economy and financial markets, ability of the currency to hold value, and inertia). But understanding the determination of reserve holdings probably requires going beyond the aggregate numbers, instead observing individual central bank behavior, including characteristics of the holding country (bilateral trade with the issuing country, bilateral currency peg, and proxies for bilateral exposure to sanctions), in addition to the characteristics of the reserve currency issuer. On a currency-by-currency basis, US dollar holdings are somewhat well explained by several issuer characteristics; but the other currencies are less successfully explained. It may be that the results from currency-by-currency estimation are impaired by insufficient sample size. This consideration offers a motivation for pooling the data across the major currencies and imposing the constraints that reserve holdings are determined in the same way for each currency. In this setting, most economic determinants enter with significance: economic size as measured by GDP, size of financial markets as measured by foreign exchange turnover, bilateral currency peg, and bilateral trade share. However, geopolitical variables (bilateral alliance, bilateral sanctions) usually do not enter with significance.

• Will the Dollar Ever Weaken?   Christopher Smart/OMFIF

  It goes up when things are good and it goes up when things are bad, so it’s a fair question to ask under what circumstances the US currency ever actually goes down. When everyone seems to accept that the Federal Funds rate will stay higher for longer, just what will it take to reverse an appreciation trend that is beginning to look more secular than cyclical? The short answer is that there are lots of things that could reverse the current trend. It’s just that very few of them seem likely anytime soon.

• Government Debt, Limited Foresight, and Longer-term Interest Rates  Federal Reserve Board

  With the issuance of U.S. Treasury debt having risen substantially in recent years, the effect of government debt issuance on longer-term interest rates has come under renewed attention.  While government debt can affect economic outcomes in a variety of ways, its effect on interest rates is an important determinant of the consumption and savings decisions of households as well as the investment decisions of firms and hence of macroeconomic activity.  In this note, we study the role of expectations formation in influencing the relationship between government debt and longer-term interest rates.  While it is common to analyze the effects of government debt on interest rates in a dynamic setting under the assumption of full information, rational expectations, the realism of this assumption is questionable.  In particular, this assumption implies that economic decision makers know all possible future situations that will arise and can use that knowledge to formulate complete state-contingent plans into the distant future.  A key contribution that we make in this paper is to depart from this assumption and study the effects of government debt on interest rates when economic decision makers are ‘boundedly rational’ and only have limited foresight about future events.2  In particular, we adopt the approach of Woodford (2018) in which agents can only engage in sophisticated forecasting and planning out to a finite horizon.3  We embed this approach into the model of Li and Wei (2013), as it provides a simple relationship linking the future path of government debt to longer-term yields and is an empirically relevant model for the effects of the supply of government debt on longer-term interest rates.4  We illustrate how limited foresight attenuates the effect of the supply of government debt on longer-term interest rates.  Calibrating the model to recent empirical evidence implies that limited foresight diminishes the effects of government debt substantially relative to the benchmark of rational expectations. 

Indo-Pacific

• East Asia’s Coming Population Collapse: And How It Will Reshape World Politics  Foreign Affairs

  In the decades immediately ahead, East Asia will experience perhaps the modern world’s most dramatic demographic shift. All of the region’s main states—China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan—are about to enter into an era of depopulation, in which they will age dramatically and lose millions of people. According to projections from the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic Social Affairs, China’s and Japan’s populations are set to fall by eight percent and 18 percent, respectively, between 2020 and 2050. South Korea’s population is poised to shrink by 12 percent. And Taiwan’s will go down by an estimated eight percent. The U.S. population, by contrast, is on track to increase by 12 percent.

• Expanding the Tool Kit to Counter China's Economic Coercion Center for Strategic & International Studies

  China’s 40-year economic development has transformed it into one of the world’s largest economies and most powerful countries. Over the past 12 years, China has been increasingly willing to leverage its economic might to pressure countries to act in its interest. The United States and its allies and partners are not prepared to counter China’s economic coercion. This report identifies coercive sanctions the United States and allied policymakers can use to effectively compete with China in the economic domain and deter future economic aggression from Beijing.

• India’s Battleground State  Foreign Policy

  The biggest question about India’s ongoing national election is not if Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) will win but rather by how much they will win. Modi’s deep popularity makes a third consecutive term very likely. But a few factors, including inflation and opposition to the BJP’s Hindu nationalism, could deprive the party of the supermajority that it seeks. The southern state of Karnataka is a battleground between the BJP and the Indian National Congress party, its main political opposition. Congress won big in Karnataka’s state election last year, picking up nearly 43 percent of votes. This underscores the challenges the BJP alliance faces to winning 400 seats of the 543 in the Lok Sabha, India’s lower house of Parliament—which would be a nearly 50-seat increase from its 2019 result.

Geoeconomics

• What’s Driving the Global Gold Rush?  Harold James/Project Syndicate

  A recent surge in the gold price is symptomatic of a changing world order and the onset of a new age of conflict and uncertainty. Governments and central banks have long viewed the precious metal as a potential source of monetary stability and economic security, and this time is no exception. Gold has returned to the international monetary system. Over 50 years ago, US President Richard Nixon “closed the gold window” (ended the dollar’s fixed-rate convertibility into gold), and the world moved on from its obsession with precious metals. A new era of fiat currency had begun. But now, fiat money is being challenged by fiscal worries and new technology (blockchains/distributed ledgers), and the price of gold has reached all-time highs above $2,400 per ounce.

The Global Week Ahead

The most significant event on our radar this week is the highly anticipated meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping. This meeting, marking the 75th anniversary of Russia-China relations, holds immense importance as it is the first face-to-face interaction between the two leaders since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  The discussions are expected to revolve around strategies to boost trade, particularly in light of the tightening sanctions on Russia and the potential for new bilateral energy deals.  Putin is keen on expanding natural gas and oil exports to China.  

The meeting comes as President Biden is expected to impose tough new tariffs on Chinese solar panels, electric vehicles, batteries, and other goods. China is expected to issue retaliatory tariffs at some point, but it is unclear at this point what sectors will be hit and when. 

Also this week, we expect Israel to ramp up military pressure on Hamas in the Gaza city of Rafah despite President Biden’s decision to hold back on supplying particular military aid.  All indications strongly suggest Israel will not stand down despite Biden’s efforts.  Also in the region this week, 22 Arab leaders will meet in Bahrain for the annual Arab League Summit (and the first one in years in which Syrian President Bashir al-Assad has been invited back since the brutal Syrian Civil War), and the situation in Gaza will be the leading issue of discussion. 

Elsewhere in the world, a new Prime Minister takes office in Singapore, signaling a new era of leadership in the city-state as it further ascends as a leading financial center in the greater Indo-Pacific region.  

Looking at the global economic radar screen this coming week, markets will focus on the US CPI and retail sales reports on Wednesday to get a better sense of the inflation threat.   Fed Chair Jay Powell will be in Amsterdam this week, speaking on a panel with other central bank chiefs, and we will be listening closely for his assessment of the economy.  

In Asia, China will release inflation data this coming Wednesday, along with retail sales and industrial production. Having seen more tepid economic reports last week and the threat of stagflation hitting China, markets will be keenly attentive to the coming reports.  Also in Asia this week, Japan will release Q1 GDP figures and its PPI report.  

Finally, in Europe, it is a fairly light reporting week. Markets will examine UK labor figures and note economic data from Germany.  

Here is what else we are watching closely around the world this coming week: 

Sunday, May 12, 2024 

Global

· UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres begins an official visit to Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain for bilateral meetings and discussions.

Americas

Political/Social Events –s

· U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu will visit India, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh through May 15.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India begins Phase 4 of elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence APR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Lithuania holds Presidential elections.

·       The Catalan regional elections (Spain) are being held.  The vote could determine the future of Spain’s minority government.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel celebrates Yom Ha’atzmaut, otherwise known as Israel’s Independence Day, through May 13.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade APR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 13, 2024 

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East (Yemen), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Chile hosts Chile Fintech Forum 2024 in Santiago.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell participates in a moderated discussion with De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) President Klaas Knot at the Annual General Meeting, Foreign Bankers’ Association, Amsterdam.

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech entitled “Communicating About Monetary Policy” at the Cleveland Fed Conference on Central Bank Communications, Cleveland, Ohio.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech entitled “Growth and Change at Community Development Financial Institutions” at the Expanding Access to Capital for CDFIs, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in New York.

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester to participate in the discussion before the Central Bank Communications: Theory and Practice Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

·       Canada Building Permits MoM MAR

·       USA Consumer Inflation Expectations APR

·       Brazil Business Confidence MAY/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence APR

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence APR

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade MAR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       ASEAN will hold its annual 21st ASEAN Regional Security Policy Conference in Laos through May 17.

·       South Korea's Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul will meet with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, in Beijing, China, through March 14.  It is the first time a South Korean foreign minister has visited Beijing in more than six years.  They are expected to talk about bilateral trade as well as arrange a trilateral meeting with Japan and the situation on the Korean peninsula.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI APR/ Food Inflation YoY APR/ Business Inflation Expectations Q2

·       Australia NAB Business Confidence APR

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence APR

·       Malaysia Construction Output YoY Q1

·       India Inflation Rate YoY APR

·       China Vehicle Sales YoY APR/ Current Account Prel Q1

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment FEB

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup meets in Brussels.  They will discuss outcomes of the recent G7 meeting in Italy, hear the biannual report of the Single Supervisory Mechanism and the Single Resolution Board, the current stage of the euro area banking system, Euro-area competitiveness, and the EU capital markets union efforts.

·       The EU Education, Youth, Culture and Sports Council meets in Brussels through May 14.  They will seek to approve conclusions on inclusive societies for young people, European and international policy agendas for children, youth and children’s rights, and the legacy of the European Year of Youth 2022.  On the following day, it will turn its attention to culture and audiovisual issues, with ministers seeking to approve conclusions on the rise of influencers as a part of the EU’s media ecosystem, as well as on ways to empower the cultural and creative sectors through data-driven audience development. They will also hold a policy debate on future-proofing the cultural and creative sectors in the age of artificial intelligence.

·       Georgia’s Parliament will begin the third reading of the controversial “Foreign Agents” bill.  More protests are expected nationwide in opposition to the bill, which is seen as being pro-Russian and a threat to the nation’s democracy.  They are focusing on a so-called “positive agenda” of mutual trade and energy matters, repairing cultural ties, and a long list of other items placed on the so-called positive agenda.

·       Greece's Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis will meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in  Ankara, Turkey. 

· Norway will host the heads of government from Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Sweden, and Germany, which will meet for a summit in Stockholm, Sweden, through May 14.  They will discuss security policy and the situation in Ukraine.

·       Russia’s Duma will consider candidates for deputy prime minister.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ireland Construction PMI APR

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence APR

·       Turkey Current Account MAR/ Retail Sales YoY MAR

·       Serbia Inflation Rate YoY APR

·       Romania Interest Rate Decision

·       Germany Current Account MAR

·       Euro Area European Commission Spring Forecasts

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Mauritania holds the first round of parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kazakhstan Unemployment Rate Q1/ PPI YoY APR

·       Jordan Inflation Rate YoY APR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Inflation Rate YoY APR

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate YoY APR

Tuesday, May 14, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on ICC Libya.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Paraguay celebrates its Independence Day through May 15.  It commemorates the day in 1811 when they won their freedom from Spain.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index APR/ PPI APR/ Redbook YoY MAY/11, Total Household Debt Q1/ API Crude Oil Stock Change MAY/10

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

·       Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales MAR

·       Colombia Industrial Production YoY MAR/ Retail Sales YoY MAR

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade APR

·       Uruguay Industrial Production YoY MAR

·       Argentina Inflation Rate YoY APR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Thailand holds elections for their House of Representatives.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Export Prices YoY APR

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY APR/ Visitor Arrivals YoY MAR

·       Japan PPI YoY APR/ Machine Tool Orders YoY APR

·       Indonesia Retail Sales YoY MAR

·       India WPI Food/ Fuel/ Inflation/ Manufacturing Index YoY APR

·       China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Economics and Financial Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  The Council will seek a political agreement on a proposal to make the relief of excess withholding taxes faster and safer (FASTER). This initiative aims to help fight tax abuse and contribute to completing the EU capital markets union by encouraging cross-border investment.  They will also seek a political agreement on the value-added tax (VAT) in the digital age package. The package consists of three proposals that set out to tackle VAT fraud, support businesses and promote digitalization.  They will also discuss the Russian war on Ukraine and the broader economic impact on the EU.  Finally, they will discuss the challenges arising from rapidly the rapidly aging EU population.  The ministers will also exchange views on the state of play of the implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF).

·       The seventh Copenhagen Democracy Summit will take place in Copenhagen, Denmark, through May 15.  European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and the presidents of numerous EU countries will speak.   Also scheduled to speak are Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen and Vice President Lai Ching-te as well as US Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

·       The 77th Cannes Film Festival opens, running until May 25. The honorary Palme d’Or award this year will go to Star Wars producer George Lucas.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Governor Isabel Schnabel gives the keynote speech at the high-level scientific conference "Weichenstellungen für Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und Wachstum" organized by the Federal Chancellery in Berlin, Germany.

·       Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill answers online questions on the economic outlook for the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales

·       Germany Inflation Rate YoY Final APR/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index MAY/ ZEW Current Conditions MAY

·       Romania Industrial Production YoY MAR/ Inflation Rate YoY APR/ Current Account MAR

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate MAR/ Claimant Count Change APR/ HMRC Payrolls Change APR/ BoE Pill Speech/ Labour Productivity QoQ Final Q4

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices YoY APR

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate YoY APR

·       Spain Inflation Rate YoY Final APR

·       Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index MAY

·       Greece Inflation Rate YoY APR

·       Poland Balance of Trade MAR/ Current Account MAR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Unemployment Rate Q1/ Gold Production YoY MAR/ Mining Production YoY MAR/ Unemployed Persons Q1

Wednesday, May 15, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on Bosnia and Herzegovina. In the afternoon, the Security Council will hold consultations on Peace and Security in Africa [G5 Sahel].

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Innovation and the Evolving Financial Landscape” at the DC Blockchain Summit 2024 in Washington, D.C.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in a fireside chat on the economy in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index MAY/10/ Inflation Rate YoY APR/ CPI APR/ Retail Sales YoY APR/ Balance of Trade MAR/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change MAY/10, NOPA Crush Report/ Net Long-term TIC Flows MAR/ Foreign Bond Investment MAR/ Overall Net Capital Flows MAR

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity MAR

·       Canada Housing Starts APR/ Manufacturing Sales MoM Final MAR

·       Colombia GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1/ ISE Economic Activity YoY MAR

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate YoY MAR/ Unemployment Rate APR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong steps down to be replaced by Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, the country’s former finance minister.

· Today is Buddha’s Birthday, celebrated by many Asian nations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Wage Price Index YoY Q1

·       Thailand GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1

·       Philippines Cash Remittances MAR

·       Indonesia Exports/ Imports/ Balance of Trade APR

·       India M3 Money Supply YoY MAY/03/ Passenger Vehicles Sales YoY APR/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade APR

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing & Services PMI APR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to visit Beijing for meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping through May 16.

·       The EU Financial Stability Review of the implications of artificial intelligence on financial stability is pre-released.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel Q1

·       Hungary Construction Output YoY MAR/ Industrial Production YoY Final MAR

·       France Inflation Rate YoY Final APR

·       Slovakia GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel Q1

·       Poland GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel Q1/ Inflation Rate YoY Final APR

·       Turkey Budget Balance APR

·       Slovenia GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1

·       Euro Area Employment Change YoY Prel Q1/ GDP Growth Rate YoY 2nd Est Q1/ Industrial Production YoY MAR

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices YoY MAR

·       Russia Building Permits MAR/ Balance of Trade MAR/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel Q1

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Palestinians commemorate “Nabka Day” (“Catastrophe”) commemorating when 70,000 Arabs fled due to the creation of the State of Israel.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate YoY APR/ Wholesale Prices YoY APR

·       Kazakhstan GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1/ GDP YoY APR

·       Israel Inflation Rate YoY APR

·       Oman M2 Money Supply YoY MAR/ Total Credit YoY MAR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The 17th German-Africa Energy Forum is being held in Hamburg, Germany, through May 16.

· The 11th Africa CEO Forum will bring together business leaders, investors, and policymakers from Africa and around the world to Kigali, Rwanda.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Retail Sales YoY MAR

·       Nigeria Inflation Rate YoY APR

·       Kenya GDP Growth Rate YoY Q4

·       Egypt Unemployment Rate Q1

Thursday, May 16, 2024

Global

·       UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will attend the Arab League Summit in Manama and will have remarks.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr will testify at a hearing entitled “Oversight of Financial Regulators” before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.

· Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on “The Economic Impact of Higher Education and Healthcare Institutions" and participate in a conversation before the hybrid 2024 Anchor Economy Conference in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

·       USA Building Permits Prel APR/ Import & Export Prices APR/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index MAY/ Philly Fed Business Conditions MAY/ Capacity Utilization APR/ Industrial & Manufacturing Production YoY APR

·       Colombia Imports/ Balance of Trade MAR

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Cambodia and China will conduct "Golden Dragon" military exercises through May 30.  The exercises will combine land, sea, and air drills symbolizing the strengthening defense ties between the two nations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia RBA Hunter Speech/ Employment Change APR/ Participation Rate APR

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment MAY/11/ GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel Q1/ Stock Investment by Foreigners MAY/11/ Capacity Utilization MoM MAR/ Industrial Production YoY Final MAR

·       Philippines Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO’s highest military authority, the Military Committee, gathers in Brussels for a meeting, also attended by the Ukrainian chief of defense.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Megan Greene gives a speech at the Make UK Conference entitled “The current state of Britain’s Labour market.”

·       Germany Bundesbank Mauderer Speech/ Bundesbank President Nagel Speech

·       Euro Area ECB Financial Stability Review

·       Italy Inflation Rate YoY Final APR/ Balance of Trade MAR

·       Great Britain BoE Financial Stability Report

·       Ireland Balance of Trade MAR

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves MAY/10/ Auto Production & Sales YoY APR

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate YoY APR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 1st Est Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Arab League Summit will be held in Bahrain.  Among the invitees are Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.  He had been excluded from the annual meetings since the start of the Syrian Civil War.  The Gaza War will be the primary issue for discussion as well as the situation in Yemen and Houthi attacks on international shipping.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Friday, May 17, 2024 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will visit Chile to meet with President Gabriel Boric for a State Visit to discuss South American integration.

·       Guatemalan President Arevalo visits Mexico for meetings with Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrado.

·       Peru will host the ASEAN Trade Ministers in Arequipa, Peru.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr will testify at a hearing entitled “Oversight of Financial Regulators” before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.

·       Canada New Housing Price Index YoY APR/ Foreign Securities Purchases MAR

·       USA CB Leading Index MoM APR

·       Argentina Leading Indicator MoM APR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand PPI Input and Output QoQ Q1

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate APR

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports YoY APR/ Balance of Trade APR

·       China House Price Index YoY APR/ Industrial Production YoY APR/ Retail Sales YoY APR/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY APR/ Unemployment Rate APR/ NBS Press Conference/ FDI (YTD) YoY APR

·       Indonesia Property Price Index YoY Q1

·       Malaysia Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q1

·       Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q1

·       India Bank Loan Growth YoY MAY/03/ Deposit Growth YoY MAY/03/ Foreign Exchange Reserves MAY/10

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet with Moldovan President Maia Sandu in Berlin, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos gives remarks at the Banking Sector Industry Meeting organized by IESE Business School in Madrid, Spain.

·       Bank of England monetary policy committee member Catherine Mann speaks at the annual ESCoE Conference on Economic Measurement, held in partnership with the Office for National Statistics, at Alliance Manchester Business School.

·        

·       France Unemployment Rate Q1

·       Switzerland Industrial Production YoY Q1

·       Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate YoY APR

·       Great Britain BoE Mann Speech

·       Euro Area Inflation Rate YoY Final APR/ CPI Final APR

·       Russia Current Account MAR/ Inflation Rate YoY APR

·       Belarus GDP YoY APR/ Industrial Production YoY APR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production YoY APR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Interest Rate Decision/ Foreign Exchange Reserves/ M3 Money Supply YoY APR

·       Ghana PPI YoY APR

Saturday, May 18, 2024 

Global

·       The 10th World Water Forum opens in Bali and runs through May 25.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives the Commencement Speech at the University of Virginia 2024 Commencement Ceremony – Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy, Charlottesville, Virginia.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 19, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Dominican Republic holds presidential and legislative elections.  Incumbent President Luis Abinader, from the Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM), is expected to win a second term.

·       President Joe Biden delivers address at Morehouse College’s commencement ceremony.  Protests are expected over the US support for Israel and a number of faculty and students have demanded the invitation be rescinded.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives the Commencement Remarks at the Georgetown Law Commencement Ceremony in Washington, D.C.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

May 13 - 20, 2024

Last week was electrifying in the otherwise usually staid world of regulation. And the coming week might be just as action-packed. The fireworks were set off when, as we noted in our note last week, an independent investigatory report on the FDIC workplace and FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg was released, and it was, in a word, damning. Conducted by the law firm Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton, the report charged, "For too many employees and for far too long, the FDIC has failed to provide a workplace safe from sexual harassment, discrimination, and other interpersonal misconduct."

The report went on to detail numerous incidents of Gruenberg verbally abusing employees and failing to respond to years of employee complaints over workplace culture. Gruenberg has issued a generic apology to staff but refused to step down despite a growing chorus of members of Congress demanding his resignation. As House Financial Services Committee Chair Patrick McHenry (R-NC) said, the report "details his inexcusable behavior and makes clear new leadership is needed at the FDIC."

In an attempt to defend Gruenberg, House Financial Services Committee Ranking Member Representative Maxine Waters (D-CA) issued not one but two strident press releases in response to the report defending Gruenberg. In the first release, Waters tried to divert the fault away from Gruenberg and onto two previous Republican chairs (despite Gruenberg having been Chair for the last three years. Gruenberg first joined the FDIC board in 2005 as Vice Chair, serving until he became Chair in 2011 and serving until 2018. Then he returned to serving as Vice Chair when Jelena McWilliams was named Chair. He then became Chair again in January 2023 after instigating a series of maneuvers to push McWilliams out so he could become Chair again).   

Then, later in the day, Waters issued an updated statement, again attempting to divert the issue away from Gruenberg and the institution as a whole – all the while ignoring the detailed evidence of Gruenberg's bullying and abusive behavior over the years.

The scandal will be brought into the public square on Wednesday and Thursday in Congressional hearings, starting at the House Financial Services Committee. The Committee had already scheduled an oversight hearing on banking regulation in general with Gruenberg, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michael Barr, and Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu testifying. But at this point, we expect the lion's share of the hearing will be spent either bashing or defending Gruenberg. The fireworks show will be replicated the next day when the trio of regulators testify before the Senate Banking Committee.

Last week, a federal appellate court also blocked the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's regulation on capping credit card fees. We expect the CFPB to appeal the case, which is likely to end up before the Supreme Court.

This past Friday, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) approved a move to ban derivatives contracts tied to political elections, sporting events, and awards shows like the Oscars, in a blow to political analysts like me.  

Also, last week, the Financial Stability Oversight Council agreed unanimously to examine mortgage servicing companies (NMC) more closely. Secretary Janet Yellen separately called on Congress to establish a system for troubled NMCs.  

We will watch closely this coming week as the House Financial Services Committee is expected to markup legislation seeking to limit SEC regulations on consolidated audit trails and crypto regulations.

And circling back to the regulatory calendar this coming week, the big event will be the SEC Division of Investment Management's annual Conference on Emerging Trends in Asset Management. The conference will bring together a variety of asset management industry participants and academics. SEC Chair Gary Gensler will kick off the meeting with a keynote speech. 

Below is a listing of all the other significant regulatory-related events this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

U.S. Senate

·       Thursday, May 16, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee holds a hearing entitled “Oversight of the U.S. Financial Regulators: Accountability and Financial Stability”.  Testifying will be Michael Barr, Vice Chair for Supervision, Federal Reserve; The Honorable Martin Gruenberg, Chair, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation; and Mr. Michael Hsu, Acting Comptroller, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

House of Representatives

·       Wednesday, May 15, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing entitled “Oversight of Prudential Regulators.” Testifying will be Michael Barr, Vice Chair for Supervision, Federal Reserve; The Honorable Martin Gruenberg, Chair, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation; and Mr. Michael Hsu, Acting Comptroller, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

·       Monday, May 13, 9:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech entitled “Communicating About Monetary Policy” at the Cleveland Fed Conference on Central Bank Communications, Cleveland, Ohio.

·       Monday, May 13, 9:10 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech entitled “Growth and Change at Community Development Financial Institutions” at the Expanding Access to Capital for CDFIs, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in New York.

·       Monday, May 13, 10:00 a.m. (Amsterdam) – Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell participates in a moderated discussion with De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) President Klaas Knot at the Annual General Meeting, Foreign Bankers’ Association, Amsterdam.

·       Wednesday, May 15, 3:20 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Innovation and the Evolving Financial Landscape” at the DC Blockchain Summit 2024 in Washington, D.C.

·       Thursday, May 16, 10:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr will testify at a “Oversight of Financial Regulators” hearing before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.

·       Friday, May 17, 10:15 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech entitled “Payments Innovation, Technical Standards and the Federal Reserve’s Roles” at the International Organization for Standardization Technical Committee 68 Financial Services 44th Plenary Meeting in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

·       Saturday, May 18, 5:45 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives the Commencement Speech at the University of Virginia 2024 Commencement Ceremony – Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy, Charlottesville, Virginia.

·       Sunday, May 19, 3:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives the Commencement Remarks at the Georgetown Law Commencement Ceremony in Washington, D.C.

U.S. Treasury Department

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

·       Thursday, May 16, 9:00 a.m. – The SEC Division of Investment Management will host its annual Conference on Emerging Trends in Asset Management. The conference will bring together a variety of asset management industry participants and academics.  SEC Chair Gary Gensler will kick off the meeting with a keynote speech.

·       Thursday, May 16, 2:00 a.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

·       Monday, May 13, 11:15 a.m. – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will participate on an AI panel at the Asian Pacific American Institute for Congressional Studies (APAICS) at the 2024 Legislative Leadership Summit in Washington, D.C.  The panel is titled How AI is Changing the World.

·       Thursday, May 16, 1:15 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will speak at the National Futures Association’s (NFA) Board of Directors Spring meeting in Washington, D.C.

FINRA

·       Tuesday, May 14, 10:00 a.m. – FINRA holds its 2024 FINRA Annual Conference in Washington, D.C.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

·       Wednesday & Thursday, May 15 & 16 – FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg will testify before the House Financial Services Committee and then the Senate Banking Committee.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

·       Wednesday & Thursday, May 15 & 16 – Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu will testify before the House Financial Services Committee and then the Senate Banking Committee.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

·       Wednesday, May 15, 10:30 a.m. – The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau holds a virtual meeting of the Consumer Advisory Board to discuss broad policy matters related to the Bureau's Unified Regulatory Agenda and general scope of authority.

National Credit Union Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

·       Tuesday, May 14, 11:00 a.m. – The FTC will hold a Compliance Webinar on the Final Noncompete Rule.

·       Thursday, May 16, 10:00 a.m. – The FTC has a scheduling conference before the Administrative Law Judge re: the Tapestry, Inc and Capri Holding Limited deal.

Farm Credit Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

·       Tuesday, May 14, 11:30 a.m. (London) – the Institute for International Finance hosts the IIF-Fitch Ratings Global Debt Roundtable in London.

·       Wednesday, May 15, 9:30 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance holds the 2024 IIF/Deloitte Insurance Colloquium in Arlington, Virginia.

·       Tuesday, May 14, 4:30 p.m. (Austin, Texas) – The Investment Company Institute and the Association of Securities and Exchange Commission Alumni (ASECA) holds an event entitled “ICI & ASECA: Celebrating 100 Years of the Mutual Fund”

·       Wednesday, May 15, 11:00 a.m. – SIFMA holds the third of a four-part webinar series on China.  This event is entitled “ U.S. Policy On China: What Might Congress and the White House Do in 2024 and Beyond.”

·       Wednesday, May 15, 1:00 p.m. – The National Association for Business Economics holds a virtual discussion on "Climate Change, Risk, and Insurance: How the Landscape for Risk Is Evolving and Implications for Commercial Real Estate Investors/Owners."

Think Tanks and Other Events

·       Tuesday, May 14, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds an event entitled “Can auditors better serve investors’ needs?”

·       Thursday, May 16, 2:00 p.m. – The Brookings Institution holds an event entitled “How can markets better value nature and price the benefits of conservation?”

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

The Global Week Ahead

May 6 - 12, 2024

This week is going to be relatively quiet. Monday and Wednesday are holidays in Europe, which means a very quiet week in the EU, while holidays in Japan and South Korea will also help things stay quiet in Asia. 

However, we are watching one big geopolitical event this week, which will take place in the EU: Chinese President Xi Jinping's visits to Europe. Xi's trip begins with meetings with French President Emmanuel Macron and EU President Ursula von der Leyden in Paris to discuss the multiple trade spats between the EU and China. From there, Xi heads to Hungary for meetings with Prime Minister Viktor Orban and then to Serbia. While all this is happening, Russia celebrates Victory Day this week, marking the end of World War II, and President Vladimir Putin will celebrate being reinaugurated as President of Russia.

Also, this week, we will be watching for renewed efforts to bring a cease-fire to Gaza as Israel prepares to launch a military offensive against the city of Rafah. We do not hope a deal will get done, but the discussions will likely intensify, and we can always hope.

Turning our attention to the US, the US Congress is in session this week. While the budget is finished and aid to Ukraine and Israel has been approved, most of the "major" issues left for Congress to tackle are secondary. This week's key focus for Congress is reauthorizing the Federal Aviation Administration.  

On the global economic radar this week, there are several key indicators and events to watch. Markets will be closely monitoring the Bank of England's interest rate decision on Thursday, the UK GDP report, and the University of Michigan consumer survey in the US. In Asia, China will be reporting the latest trade balance and Caixin Services PMI, while Japan will also be releasing trade data. Australia's Reserve Bank meets on Tuesdayto decide rates.  

Here is what else we are watching around the world this week:

Monday, May 6, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Treasury Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson and Treasury General Counsel Neil MacBride will travel to Singapore and Malaysia to advance Treasury’s work countering terrorist financing and revenue generation by Iran and its proxies as well as to discuss the implementation of sanctions and export controls against Russia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to participate in conversation before the Milken Institute 2024 Global Conference.

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (March)/ Nominal Budget Balance (March)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (April)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       USA Fed Williams Speech/ Loan Officer Survey

·       Colombia PPI (April)/ Monetary Policy Minutes

·       Canada Average Hourly Wages (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese President Xi Jinping begins a European tour of France, Serbia, and Hungary. He will meet with French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (April)

·       Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (April)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (April)

·       China Caixin Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       Indonesia GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI Final (April)

·       Kazakhstan S&P Global Services PMI (April)

·       Thailand Business Confidence (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen participates in trilateral meetings in Paris with Emmanuel Macron, President of France, and Xi Jinping, President of the People’s Republic of China

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The UK marks the Early May Bank Holiday, a national holiday.

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Prel (March)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (March)

·       Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       France HCOB Composite & Services PMI Final (April)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI Final (April)/ Bundesbank President Nagel Speech

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI Final (April)/ PPI (March)

·       Switzerland SNB Jordan Speech

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (April)/ Business Confidence (April)

·       Jordan PPI (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Chad holds the first phase of presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (April)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (April)

·       Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (April)

·       Ghana S&P Global PMI (April)

Tuesday, May 7, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in a moderated conversation on the economic overview before the Milken Institute 2024 Global Conference.

·       Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers will appear before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Public Accounts.

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (April)/ Auto Production (April)

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       USA Redbook (May/04)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (May)/ NY Fed Treasury Purchases 0 to 1 yrs/ Fed Kashkari Speech/ Consumer Credit Change (March)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/03)/ Used Car Prices (April)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (April)

·       Canada Ivey PMI s.a (April)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (April)

·       Colombia Exports (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMI Final (April)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Australia Retail Sales Final (March)/ RBA Interest Rate Decision/ RBA Press Conference

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (April)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (April)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (May/07)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin will be re-inaugurated as President of Russia.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Development) meets in Brussels.  The ministers will discuss Ukraine, the situation in Gaza, and other current business.

·       The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  They are expected to discuss the Equal Treatment Directive and the state of play of the Violence Against Women Survey.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England External Member of the Financial Policy Committee Jonathan Hall gives a speech at the University of Exeter entitled “Monsters in the deep… Artificial Intelligence.”

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (April)/ Halifax House Price Index (April)/ New Car Sales (April)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (April)/ BoE Hall Speech

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Factory Orders (March)/ HCOB Construction PMI (April)

·       Romania PPI (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Hungary Retail Sales (March)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Current Account (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ HCOB Construction PMI (April)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (April)

·       Serbia PPI (April)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, May 8, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on 1559 report (Lebanon).

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Washington Conference on the Americas takes place in the U.S. capital with Dominican Republic President Luis Abinader, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, and U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield will speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson participates in a moderated discussion on Careers in Economics at the Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech on financial stability at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

·       Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins to speak before students and faculty and participates in a fireside discussion before the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Sloan School of Management's Challenges and Opportunities class.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/03)/ Wholesale Inventories (March)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (May/03)

·       Brazil Retail Sales (March)/ Car Production (April)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Chile Inflation Rate (April)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (April)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (March)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (April)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (April)

·       Peru Balance of Trade (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (March)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Industrial Production (March)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in Budapest.

·       North Macedonia holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting

·       Germany Industrial Production (March)

·       Romania Retail Sales (March)

·       Hungary Industrial Production Prel (March)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Budget Balance (April)

·       Span Industrial Production (March)

·       Italy Retail Sales (March)

·       Great Britain BBA Mortgage Rate (April)

·       Ireland Industrial Production (March)

·       Russia Monetary Policy Report/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (April)

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Thursday, May 9, 2024

Global

·       The G7 Justice Ministers meet in Venice, Italy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Argentina’s General Confederation of Labor will go on strike in protest over President Javier Miliei’s economic reform efforts.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (April)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (May/04)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (April/27)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (May/04)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (May/03)

·       Canada BoC Financial System Review

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (March)

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (March)/ BoJ Summary of Opinions/ Foreign Bond Investment (May/04)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (May/04)/ Coincident Index Prel (March)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Australia Building Permits Final (March)/ Private House Approvals Final (March)

·       Philippines GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (March)/ Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Ascension Day, a public holiday in the EU.  The ECB and most major banking systems are closed.

·       Russia will hold a large military parade in Moscow, marking the end of World War II.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos gives remarks and participates in Q&A at Panel Cívico organized by Asociación Panel Cívico in Madrid, Spain.

·       ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone gives opening remarks at a seminar “The tokenization of financial instruments – prospects for the Italian market” organized by CONSOB in Rome, Italy

·       ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates on a panel discussion at V Edition of the Expansión International Forum in Madrid, Spain.  She later participates on a panel entitled “Finance and Banks.”
Time: 9:55

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (April)/ BoE Interest Rate Decision/ Monetary Policy Report/ MPC Vote Cut/ MPC Vote Hike/ MPC Vote Unchanged/ MPC Meeting Minutes/ BoE Gov Bailey Speech/ BoE Pill Speech

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (March)

·       Turkey Inflation Report/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/03)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (April)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (March)

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production (March)

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (April)

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (April)

Friday, May 10, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr gives the commencement speech at the American University School of Public Affairs Graduation in Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Financial Stability Risks: Resiliency and the Role of Regulators” at the Texas Bankers Association Annual Convention, Arlington, Texas.

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan to participate in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Louisiana Bankers Association Annual Conference.

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (April)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (March)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (April)/ Participation Rate (April)/ Employment Change (April)/ Senior Loan Officer Survey

·       USA Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel (May)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Expectations Prel (May)/ WASDE Report/ Fed Goolsbee Speech/ Monthly Budget Statement (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (April)

·       Japan Household Spending (March)/ Current Account (March)/ Bank Lending (April)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (April)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment FEB

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/03)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Manufacturing Production (March)

·       China Vehicle Sales (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a keynote presentation on the digital euro by at CXVI Meeting of Central Bank Governors of the Center for Latin American Monetary Studies (CEMLA) in Madrid, Spain.

·       ECB Board Frank Elderson Frank Elderson participates in a roundtable at ASVIS/ECCO Symposium "Europe's Future: Investing in the Climate Transition for All" in Rome, Italy.

·       Romania Balance of Trade (March)

·       Great Britain GDP (March)/ Goods Trade Balance (March)/ Industrial & Manufacturing Production (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Business Investment Prel Q1/ BoE Pill Speech/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (April)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (April)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (March)/ Industrial Production (March)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Participation Rate (March)

·       Italy Industrial Production (March)/ Industrial Sales (February)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (March)

·       Switzerland Current Account Prel Q1

·       Greece Balance of Trade (March)/ Industrial Production (March)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ Vehicle Sales (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (April)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iran holds parliamentary elections (phase 2).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (April)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (April)

Saturday, May 11, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (April)/ PPI (April)/ New Yuan Loans (April)/ M2 Money Supply (April)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (April)/ Total Social Financing (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 12, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Lithuania holds Presidential elections.

·       The Catalan regional elections (Spain) are being held.  The vote could determine the future of Spain’s minority government.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

May 6 - 10, 2024

The coming week in Washington's financial regulatory world will be fairly run-of-the-mill, but we will be watching several events which closely which could shake things up considerably.

First, press leaks suggest a long-awaited investigatory report on accusations of a toxic workplace at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) may be publicly released early next week. There have been reports the report, conducted by the law firm Cleary Gottlieb, retained by a special committee of the FDIC board, will be tough on the management of FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg and other senior managers. Gruenberg has apologized broadly to FDIC staff, but we are curious to see what details the report may reveal.

It will be a busy week at the Securities and Exchange Commission. The SEC convenes its Small Business Capital Formation Advisory Committee early in the week and then hosts the 11th Annual Conference on Financial Market Regulation at the end of the week. The event is being cohosted by Lehigh University's Center for Financial Services and the University of Maryland's Center for Financial Policy.

Also, next week, state securities regulators will converge on Washington as the North American Securities Administrators Administration holds its 2024 NASAA Spring Meeting and Public Policy Symposium in Washington, D.C.  

Looking at Capitol Hill, we will be watching the House Financial Services Capital Markets Subcommittee which will be holding a hearing looking at the SEC's Enforcement Division. By the hearing title – "SEC Enforcement: Balancing Deterrence with Due Process" – it seems like it will be a tough review of the Division's enforcement agenda. Over in the Senate Banking Committee, there will be a hearing about financial services fees in the rental housing market and the need for greater consumer protections.

Below is a listing of all the other significant regulatory-related events this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

U.S. Senate

• Thursday, May 9, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee holds a hearing entitled “Consumer Protection: Examining Fees in Financial Services and Rental Housing.”

House of Representatives

• Tuesday, May 7, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Capital Markets Subcommittee holds a hearing on "SEC Enforcement: Balancing Deterrence with Due Process."

• Wednesday, May 8, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Mission Critical: Restoring National Security as the Focus of Defense Production Act Reauthorization, Part II."

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

• Wednesday, May 8, 11:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson participates in a moderated discussion on Careers in Economics at the Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C.

• Wednesday, May 8, 1:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech on financial stability at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

• Friday, May 10, 9:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Financial Stability Risks: Resiliency and the Role of Regulators” at the Texas Bankers Association Annual Convention, Arlington, Texas.

• Friday, May 10, 1:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr gives the commencement speech at the American University School of Public Affairs Graduation in Washington, D.C.

U.S. Treasury Department

• Monday, Thursday, May 6 – 9 – Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson and Treasury General Counsel Neil MacBride will travel to Singapore and Malaysia to advance Treasury’s work countering terrorist financing and revenue generation by Iran and its proxies as well as to discuss the implementation of sanctions and export controls against Russia. 

• Friday, May 10,  10:00 a.m. – The Financial Stability Oversight Council will meet.  You can watch the public portion via this LINK.  An agenda has not been released yet.

• Securities and Exchange CommissionMonday, May 6, 10:00 a.m. – The US Securities and Exchange Commission holds a meeting of the SEC Small Business Capital Formation Advisory Committee to discuss matters relating to rules and regulations affecting small and emerging businesses and their investors under federal securities laws.  You can read the agenda HERE.

• Thursday, May 9, 2:00 p.m. EST – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

• Thursday & Friday, May 9 & 10 – The SEC hosts the 11th Annual Conference on Financial Market Regulation.  The event is being cohosted by Lehigh University’s Center for Financial Services, and the University of Maryland’s Center for Financial Policy and will be held at the SEC. 

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• Monday, May 6, 11:30 a.m. PT – CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam will participate in a Fireside Chat at the 27th Annual Milken Institute Global Conference at the Beverly Wilshire Hotel in Beverly Hills, California.

• Tuesday, May 7, 2:00 p.m. EDT – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will participate on a Responsible AI panel at the North American Securities Administrators Association’s (NASAA) 2024 Public Policy Symposium that explores the opportunities and challenges faced by policymakers, regulators, regulated financial institutions, investors, and customers.  The event will be held at the Intercontinental Hotel in Washington, D.C.

• Wednesday, May 8, 8:15 a.m. – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will speak at the World Economic Forum’s Industry Strategy Meeting 2024 in New York.

FINRA

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• Wednesday, May 8, 3:15 p.m. London – Acting Comptroller Michael J. Hsu will participate in a keynote discussion on digital assets, including the tokenization of real-world assets and liabilities, as well as consumer protection, compliance, and supervision, at the Financial Times' Crypto and Digital Assets Summit in London.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• Tuesday, May 7, 1:00 p.m. – 2:00 p.m. – The Federal Trade Commission host a conference entitled “Older Adults and Fraud: What You Need to Know.” Speakers from the Federal Trade Commission, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and the Securities and Exchange Commission will share updates from their agencies and free resources to help you spot, avoid, and report fraud.

Farm Credit Administration

• Thursday, May 9, 10:00 a.m. – The Board of the of the FCA holds a board meeting.  The agenda will review the report of the 2022 Census of Agriculture and approval of the minutes of the April 11 board meeting.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

• Sunday – Wednesday, May 5 -8 – NASSA holds its 2024 NASAA Spring Meeting and Public Policy Symposium in Washington, D.C.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

• Monday & Tuesday, May 6 & 7 – SIFMA holds its annual Anti-Money Laundering & Financial Crimes Conference in New York.

• Tuesday, May 7, 11:00 a.m. Malaysia – The Institute for International Finance hosts an online Roundtable on Digital Fraud and Scams.  The event is being held in Malaysia.

• Wednesday, May 8, 10:00 a.m. EST – SIFMA holds a Webinar entitled “China: The Emerging Financial Investment Landscape.”

• Thursday, May 9, 11:00 a.m. AEST – ISDA holds a virtual conference entitled “Countdown to D-Day: Navigating APAC Reporting Rules and Implementation Challenges.”

• Friday, May 10, 9:00 a.m. Istanbul, Türkiye – The Institute for International Finance holds the Türkiye Sustainable Finance Forum in Istanbul.

Think Tanks and Other Events

• Friday, May 10, 9:00 a.m. - The Affordable Housing Conference of Montgomery County, Maryland, holds its 33rd annual Housing Summit with the theme "Building the Future: Unfinished Business in Affordable Housing.”  Acting HUD Secretary Adrianne Todman delivers keynote luncheon remarks at Noon.  Then Representatives David Trone, (D-Md.),. Jamie Raskin, (D-Md.), and . Glenn Ivey, (D-Md.) will also speak.  The event will be held in Rockville, Maryland.

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