Recommended Weekend Reads

February 9 - 11, 2024

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.   

Global Corruption

• “The Global Corruption Perception Index”   Transparency International

  Transparency International reports in their newly released 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) that corruption is thriving across the world.  The CPI ranks 180 countries and territories around the globe by their perceived levels of public sector corruption, scoring on a scale of 0 (highly corrupt) to 100 (very clean). Over two-thirds of countries score below 50 out of 100, which strongly indicates that they have serious corruption problems. The global average is stuck at only 43, while the vast majority of countries have made no progress or declined in the last decade. What is more, 23 countries fell to their lowest scores to date this year. 

Global Shipping Risk

• “Maritime Security in a Time of Renewed Interstate Competition”  The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies

  Interstate competition and, in extension, global and regional maritime security have returned to a position of prominence it has not occupied for decades. European naval forces declined sharply after the Cold War, de-emphasizing the traditional tasks for navies and the capabilities needed to execute them. This raises questions about the current state of Dutch and European naval capabilities across a wide range of scenarios in a wide range of locations.

•   “How the Red Sea Became a Trap”  Foreign Policy

  The recent history of the Red Sea reads like a macabre thriller, from industrial-scale hostage-taking by pirates to tit-for-tat naval attacks between Israel and Iran in international waters to unchecked drug and arms smuggling. The aftermath of the most recent major Red Sea news, the wedging of the Ever Given in the Suez Canal, has been equally sour.  As the author writes in his book, Colonial Chaos in the Southern Red Sea: A History of Violence From 1830 to the Twentieth Century, the region’s vexatious contemporary culture lies in the impact of colonialism. Colonialism created chaos in the Red Sea in two ways.

Energy Security 

• “Geopolitical Significance of U.S. LNG”  Center for Strategic and International Studies

  The Biden administration has announced a temporary pause on new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export authorizations for proposed projects. This decision will not affect current exports or projects that are under construction, but a longer-term policy shift would have implications for both markets and geopolitics. This commentary addresses some geopolitical concerns associated with the pause in LNG export approvals. When Russia’s war on Ukraine in 2022 created a scramble for alternative gas supplies, U.S. LNG featured heavily in the transatlantic response. The United States and the European Union formed the U.S.-EU Task Force on Energy Security to help reduce EU reliance on Russian energy, diversify EU gas supplies, and accelerate the transition away from imported fossil fuels in Europe. The Biden administration pledged in March 2022 to ensure at least 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of U.S. LNG supply to Europe that year, and the European Commission agreed to work with member states to ensure “stable demand for additional U.S. LNG until at least 2030 of approximately 50 bcm/annum.” The market delivered. LNG exports to Europe far exceeded targets for 2022 and 2023, reaching 56 bcm and 63 bcm, respectively. Today, about 50 percent of Europe’s LNG imports come from the United States.

• “Impacts of the Jones Act on U.S. Petroleum Markets”  National Bureau of Economic Research

  Abstract: We study how the Jones Act — a 100-year-old U.S. regulation that constrains domestic waterborne shipping — affects U.S. markets for crude oil and petroleum products. We collect data on U.S. Gulf Coast and East Coast fuel prices, movements, and consumption, and we estimate domestic non-Jones shipping costs using freight rates for Gulf Coast exports. We then model counterfactual prices and product movements absent the Jones Act, allowing shippers to arbitrage price differences between the Gulf and East Coasts when they exceed transport costs. Eliminating the Jones Act would have reduced average East Coast gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel prices by $0.63, $0.80, and $0.82 per barrel, respectively, during 2018–2019, with the largest price decreases occurring in the Lower Atlantic. The Gulf Coast gasoline price would increase by $0.30 per barrel. U.S. consumers’ surplus would increase by $769 million per year, and producers’ surplus would decrease by $367 million per year.

Latin America

• “The Pioneer at the Head of Banco do Brasil”  Americas Quarterly

  Tarciana Medeiros was eight years old when she first started helping her dad out at his fruit and vegetable stand in a street market. At 45, she now runs the bank that is Brazil’s main lender to agricultural producers who grow the very foods she used to sell with her dad.  Medeiros is the first woman ever to lead Banco do Brasil (BB) in its 200-year history. She’s also many things most people in such positions are not: she’s Black, she’s from humble origins, she’s from the country’s northeast, and she’s gay. And she has stepped into the role at a time when the bank is at the crossroads of some of Brazil’s core existential questions.

·       “Estranged Neighbors: The Decline of U.S. Influence in Latin America and the Caribbean”  Center for Strategic and International Studies

In Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), the United States retains residual influence through shared history, culture, language, and migration.  However, the region’s “muscle memory” has undergone rapid changes.  Gone are the days when Washington was the first on LACs speed dial; here are the days when many countries seek distance – often equal distance from both Washington and Beijing.

The Global Week Ahead

February 11 - 18, 2024

Another busy week globally.   First, we would note that Jordanian King Abdullah will meet with President Biden at the White House this week to discuss the War in Gaza and the broader security crisis in the Middle East.  Long a solid ally to the United States, Jordan has both been the target of terrorist attacks as well as striking back at Iranian militia proxy groups attacking US and other Middle Eastern forces.  While they meet, US diplomats will meet with senior Iraqi officials to determine the future of US military forces in the country.  More than 100 members of the Iraqi Parliament have signed a letter demanding US forces be kicked out.

China celebrates the Chinese New Year this week, with most businesses and financial markets closed.  But it will be a busy and important week elsewhere in the Indo-Pacific as Indonesia holds presidential elections.  Indonesia – the 4th most populous country in the world – chooses between three candidates, each with very different perspectives on the nation's future.

At the end of the week, the Munich Security Conference is held in Munich, Germany.  More than 100 presidents, prime ministers and foreign ministers will gather, and the top topics will undoubtedly be the Ukraine War and the situation in the Middle East.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to attend and make an impassioned plea for continued support from Western supporters.

On the global economic reporting radar screen this week, markets will be looking at released US inflation numbers and the strength of US retail sales data.   In the EU, markets will look for the UK inflation numbers and the German ZEW survey release.   As we mentioned, China is celebrating the Chinese New Year in Asia, so few releases are expected out of Beijing.  But Japan will release its Q4 GDP figures, which will be seen as strongly correlating with future Bank of Japan interest rate decisions.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, February 11, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The US Super Bowl is played in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• China is celebrating the Lunar New Year through February 17. Much of the country is on holiday through the week.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Berlin will have a partial rerun of elections.

• Finland holds a presidential run-off election.

• There will be an Informal meeting of ministers for development through February 12 in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• The United States and Iraq will begin a second round of discussions about the future of U.S. military presence in Iraq.  The Iraqi government has called for US military forces to leave.

• Iran celebrates Islamic Revolution Day, marking the victory of the Islamic Revolution of 1979, deposing the Shah of Iran.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday, February 12, 2024 

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security. In the afternoon, the Council is scheduled vote on the adoption of 1591 Committee, followed by consultations on the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• President Biden will host Jordan’s King Abdullah at the White House to discuss the current situation in Gaza and the greater Middle East.

• Argentina's President Javier Milei will meet Italian President Sergio Mattarella, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Pope Francis in Rome, Italy.

• In a federal court in New York, the trial begins of former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández on drugs and weapons charges in a Manhattan federal court.

• Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman gives a speech entitled “Defining a Bank” at the American Bankers Association Conference for Community Bankers in San Antonio, Texas.

• Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in a conversation hosted by the Economic Club of Minnesota.

• US Consumer Inflation Expectations (January), Monthly Budget Statement (January)

• Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

• Paraguay Balance of Trade (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa will visit Fiji and Samoa.

Economic Reports/Events –

• India Industrial Production (December), Inflation (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Berlin, Germany.  Relations between the two nations have grown tense in recent months and Tusk is seeking to repair them.  Tusk will also travel to France to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron before traveling to Berlin.

• Finland's Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen will meet Montenegro's Foreign Minister Filip Ivanovic in Helsinki, Finland.  They will discuss Montenegro’s path to EU membership and mutual security and economic issues.

• German Finance Minister Christian Lindner speaking at the London School of Economics in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a roundtable: "Addressing post-pandemic challenges and looking forward, the analysts’ perspective" at conference "External statistics after the pandemic: addressing novel analytical challenges" organized Irving Fisher Committee on Central Bank Statistics of the Bank for International Settlements, European Central Bank, Banco de España in Madrid, Spain.

• Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a lecture to students at Loughborough University during an agency visit to the East Midlands.

• ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone participates on a panel discussion on 'Euro@25: What's next for the EMU?' during the European Parliamentary week 2024 in Brussels, Belgium.

• ECB Board Member Claudia Buch gives a speech entitled "Adapting banking supervision strategies in the face of global economic uncertainties" at the House of the Euro in Brussels, Belgium.

• Russia Balance of Trade (December)

• Belarus Inflation (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan may meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Ankara, Turkey.  If the meeting happens, it is expected the two leaders will discuss the Ukraine War, efforts to restore the Black Grain Sea Initiative allowing Ukrainian grain and other agricultural products to be shipped through the Black Sea safe from Russian attack, and the Gaza War.

• The UAE hosts the World Government Summit in Dubai.  Seen as an alternative to the World Economic Forum, the goal of the Summit is to enhance global solidarity and shape the future of governments for the betterment of humanity through optimal means. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva and a host of world leaders will participate.

• Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares will meet Algerian Foreign Minister Ahmed Attaf in Algiers, Algeria.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Unemployment (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report. 

Tuesday, February 13, 2024

Global

• OPEC Monthly Report is released.

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate in connection with “The impact of climate change and food insecurity” under the agenda item “Maintenance of international peace and security.”

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• In a closely watched race, the New York special election to replace disgraced and expelled Congressman George Santos (R-NY) is held.  The race is between former Democratic Congressman Tom Suozzi and Republican Mazi Melesa Pilip.

• The US House of Representatives are in session this week.  The US Senate is out of sesson.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Inflation (January), CPI (January), Redbook (February 10), API Crude Oil Stock (February 9)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan PPI (January), Machine Tool Orders (January)

• Singapore GDP (Q4)

• Australia NAB Business Confidence (January)

• Indonesia Consumer Confidence (January)

• Malaysia Construction Output (Q4)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU-Armenia Partnership Council meets in Brussels.  EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell and the Armenian Minister of Foreign Affairs Ararat Mirzoyan lead the respective delegations.  They are expected to discuss the state of implementation of the EU-Armenia Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement and of the EU-Armenia Partnership Priorities, as well as the possibility of moving towards a more ambitious EU-Armenia Partnership Agenda. They will also discuss political dialogue and reform, democracy, the rule of law and human rights, economic, trade, and sectoral cooperation, as well as migration, mobility, and the prospects of launching a visa liberalization dialogue.

• German Economy Minister Robert Habeck will travel to Warsaw for political talks.

• German Interior Minister Nancy Faese, German Domestic Intelligence Service chief Thomas Haldenwang, and German federal criminal police chief Holger Münch will host a press conference to announce new measures to combat the rise of far-right extremism.

• The Oslo Energy Forum is held in Holmekollen through February 15.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Claudia Buch participates in a conversation session with Dominic Laboureix, Chair of the Single Resolution Board (SRB), at SRB Annual Conference 2024 "The road ahead: risk, readiness and resilience" in Brussels, Belgium.

• ECB Board Member Anneli Tuominen participates in a roundtable high-level discussion at SRB Annual Conference 2024 "The road ahead: risk, readiness and resilience" in Brussels, Belgium.

• Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (February)

• Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (February), ZEW Current Conditions (February), Current Account (December)

• France Unemployment (Q4)

• UK Unemployment (December)

• Switzerland Inflation (January), CPI (January)

• Romania Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Current Account (December)

• Poland Balance of Trade (December), Current Account (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (January)

• Turkey Auto Production (January)

• Oman Inflation (January)

• Jordan PPI (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Gold Production (December), Mining Production (December)

• Angola Inflation (January)

• Mozambique Inflation (January) 

Wednesday, February 14, 2024

Global

• Today is Ash Wednesday, the start of Lent, for Christians around the world.

• The World Trade Organization (WTO) will hold a special meeting in Geneva.

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Yemen).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected to travel to Albania before he travels to Munich to attend the Munich Security Forum.  

• In Cape Canaveral, Florida, the IM-1 mission due to launch  on board a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, carrying the IM-1 lunar lander designed by Intuitive Machines to the lunar surface.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr give a speech entitled “Monetary Policy and Bank Regulation” at the 40th Annual National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Economic Policy Conference, Washington, D.C.

• Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee to participate in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Council on Foreign Relations.

• Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Rhys Mendes participates in a panel discussion entitled “Cost of Living, Housing and Monetary Policy” at the Lazaridis School of Business and Economics at Wilfrid Lauier University.

• US MBA Mortgage Market Index (February 9), EIA Crude Oil Stocks Chang (February 9), EIA Gasoline Stocks (February 9), EIA Crude Oil Stocks (February 9)

• Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (December)

• Ecuador Balance of Trade (December)

• Colombia Consumer Confidence (January), Balance of Trade (January), Imports (December), Industrial Production (December), Retail Sales (December)

• Paraguay Consumer Confidence (January)

• Uruguay Industrial Production (December)

• Argentina Inflation (January)

Asia

• Political/Social Events –

• Indonesia holds presential elections today.  The race is between Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, former Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, and former Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan.  Indonesia is the 4th most populous nation in the world, with more than 274 million citizens.

Economic Reports/Events –

• India WPI Food Index (January), WPI Fuel Index (January), WPI Inflation (January), WPI Manufacturing (January)

• New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (January), Food Inflation (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• There will be an informal meeting of EU Ministers for Development in Brussels through February 15.

• EU member states' representatives will vote on the proposed Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive.

• In France, a verdict is expected to be handed down in the appeal trial of former president Nicolas Sarkozy in a case regarding the funding of his 2012 election campaign.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos gives a speech at the Annual Conference of the Mediterranean Central Banks in Split, Croatia.

• Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey to appear before the Lords’ economic affairs committee.

• ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone gives an introductory statement at a hearing on the digital euro before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.  Later that afternoon, he participates in the CEO Summit organized by EuroCommerce in Brussels, Belgium.

• Eurozone Employment (Q4), GDP (Q4), Industrial Production (December)

• UK Inflation (January), PPI (January), Retail Price Index (January)

• Ireland Residential Property Prices (December)

• Serbia Building Permits (December), Current Account (December)

• Hungary Construction Output (December), GDP (Q4), Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

• Slovakia GDP (Q4)

• Slovenia GDP (Q4)

• Romania GDP (Q4), Industrial Production (December), Inflation (January)

• Poland GDP (Q4)

• Ukraine Balance of Trade (December)

• Russia Inflation (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Cairo, Egypt.  They are expected to discuss the War in Gaza and the Red Sea problem, which is massively slowing shipping through the Suez Canal.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel M1 Money Supply (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Retail Sales (December) 

Thursday, February 15, 2024 

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), followed by consultations. In the afternoon it is scheduled to hold a briefing on the threats to international peace and security caused by terrorist acts.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• In New York, a hearing to decide on a possible date change for the criminal trial of former president Donald Trump on charges of falsifying business records as part of an alleged scheme to silence claims of extramarital sexual encounters during his 2016 presidential campaign. The trial had been set for March 25.

• Mexican cargo truck drivers will strike and blockade roads throughout the country to protest violent crime. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller entitled “The Dollar’s International Role” at the Global Interdependence Center and University of the Bahamas Conference: Climate, Currency, and Central Banking, Nassau, Bahamas.

• Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to speak on the economic outlook and monetary policy before the Money Marketeers of New York University.

• US Retail Sales (January) Export & Import Prices (January) Initial Jobless Claims (February 10), New York Empire State Manufacturing Index (February), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (February), Retail Sales (January), Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions (February), Philadelphia Fed CAPEX Index (February), Philadelphia Fed New Orders (February), Industrial Production (January), Manufacturing Production (January), Business Inventories (January), NAHB Housing Market Index (February), EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (February 9), NOPA Crush Report

• Canada Housing Starts (January), Manufacturing Sales (December)

• Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (December)

• Chile Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

• Colombia GDP (Q4), ISE Economic Activity (December)

• Peru GDP (December), Unemployment (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) will launch its next-generation H3 rocket from the Tanegashima Space Center. The launch comes 11 months after the failure of the H3's maiden flight in March and is an attempt by the Japanese space agency to redeem itself. Japan hopes a successful launch will clear the way for the H3 to start full-scale operations and accelerate the country's space program.

• Indonesia hosts the International Motor Show through February 25.  It is one of the largest automobile shows in the world.  Nikkei News reports exhibitors from Japan include Toyota, Honda, Mitsubishi, Nissan and others.  Japanese manufacturers hold a market share of around 80% in Southeast Asia but are struggling to stay in the race to offer electric vehicles. Their South Korean rival Hyundai, which already has an EV plant in Indonesia, as well as China's BYD and Vietnam's VinFast will also show off their cars at the show.

• Afghanistan celebrates Liberation Day, marking the day Soviet forces left the country in 1989.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China People’s Bank of China 1-Year MLF Announcement

• Japan GDP (Q4), Capacity Utilization (December), Industrial Production (December)

• India Passenger Vehicle Sales (January)

• Australia Employment (January), Consumer Inflation Expectations (February)

• Indonesia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (January)

• Philippines Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Kazakhstan Unemployment (Q4)

• Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (January), Services PMI (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• NATO Defense Ministers meet in Brussels. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov to join afternoon session. 

• Serbia celebrates Sovereignty Day – also known as Statehood Day – marking the day in 1804 when the first Serbian Uprising took place.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB President Christine Lagarde gives an introductory statement at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

• ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a speech at an online seminar organized by Florence School of Banking and Finance in Florence, Italy.

• Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Green participates in a fireside chat with Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, Fitch Ratings, In London.

• Eurozone Balance of Trade (December)

• UK GDP (Q4), Business Investment (Q4), Goods Trade Balance (December), Manufacturing Production (December), Construction Orders (Q4), Construction Output (December), Industrial Production (December), Labor Productivity (Q4)

• Spain Inflation (January), CPI (January)

• Italy Balance of Trade (December)

• Poland Inflation (January)

• Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (January), Consumer Confidence (January)

• Slovakia Inflation (January), CPI (January)

• Greece Inflation (January)

• Ireland CPI (January), Inflation (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (“Lula”) will visit Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Cairo, Egypt, through February 16. The Brazilian leaders wants to find a way to improve on Egypt’s recent approval of the importation of beef from Brazil.  Lula will go on to visit Ethiopia to participate in the African Union Leaders Summit. Brazil is the chair of the G20 this year.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Inflation (January), Wholesale Prices (January)

• Turkey FX Reserves (February 9)

• Israel Inflation (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nigeria Inflation (January), Food Inflation (January)

• South Africa Building Permits (December)

• Ghana Inflation (January)

Friday, February 16, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr gives a speech entitled “Bank Supervision” at the Columbia Law School Banking Conference in New York.

• San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly to speak before the National Association for Business Economics 40th Annual Economic Policy Conference "Navigating Geopolitical Turbulence and Domestic Uncertainty".

• US PPI (January), Building Permits (January), Housing Starts (January), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (February), Michigan Consumer Expectations (February), Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (February 16)

• Canada Wholesale Prices (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Singapore's Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Lawrence Wong will present the government's budget for 2024, with some observers expecting new policies aimed at helping people cope with inflation, which has risen sharply over the past year.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China New Yuan Loans (January), M2 Money Supply (January), Outstanding Loan Growth (January), Total Social Financing (January)

• Japan Tertiary Industry Index (December)

• South Korea Import and Export Prices (January), Unemployment (January)

• India Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (January), FX Reserves (February 9)

• New Zealand Business NZ PMI (January)

• Singapore Non-Oil Exports (January), Balance of Trade (January)

• Thailand Full Year GDP (2023)

• Indonesia Retail Sales (December)

• Malaysia Current Account (Q4), GDP (Q4)

• Kazakhstan GDP (Q4), Industrial Production (January), PPI (January), Kazakhstan Business Confidence (Q4)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The 60th Munich Security Conference begins and runs through February 18. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky reportedly will attend. 

• In the UK, the Welsh Labour leadership contest begins. Separately, Scottish Labour begins its annual conference in Glasgow. Both are significant since Labour, Britain’s main opposition party, hopes to retake a large number of parliamentary seats in Scotland and retain its majority in Wales at the upcoming general election.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives the inaugural lecture at the Economic and Monetary Union Laboratory (EMU Lab) at the European University Institute in Florence, Italy.

• Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill speaks at the NABE Economic Policy Conference in Washington, D.C.

• Germany Wholesale Prices (January)

• UK Retail Prices (January), Labor Productivity (Q3)

• France Inflation (January)

• Switzerland Industrial Production (Q4)

• Poland Inflation (January)

• Slovakia Current Account (December)

• Belarus Industrial Production (January)

• Russia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference, Full Year GDP (2023)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Budget Balance (January)

• Qatar Inflation (January)

• Egypt Unemployment (Q4)

• Jordan Inflation (January)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (January)

• Angola M3 Money Supply (January), FX Reserves (January)

• Ivory Coast Inflation (January)

Saturday, February 17, 2024 

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Ethiopia hosts the African Union Heads of State and Government Summit, which opens in Addis Ababa on February 18.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 18, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The Dominican Republican holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Gambia celebrates Independence Day, marking the date when the country was granted its independence from the UK in 1965.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

The U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

February 12 - 16, 2024

The big regulatory events this coming week will be dueling speeches between a Federal Reserve Board governor and the Acting Comptroller of the Currency and then, a few days later, a big speech by the Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision. 

First, on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman and, later in the day, Acting Comptroller of Currency Michael Hsu will speak at the  American Bankers Association Conference for Community Bankers in San Antonio, Texas.  We expect further sparring over the Fed’s large bank capital requirement proposal from Bowman and Hsu. 

On Thursday, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michael Barr will speak at the National Association of Business Economics in Washington, D.C., on “monetary policy and regulation.”   Again, we expect a vigorous defense of the bank capital increase in the face of growing opposition from Congress, big banks, and major business lobbies.

Also of importance this week, the House Financial Services Committee is also holding an oversight hearing of FinCEN.  FinCEN Director Andrea Gacki will be testifying along with Treasury Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson. 

Finally, we will be listening closely to SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s duel events at Yale this week – one at the Yale School of Law and then later in the day at the Yale School of Management – where Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the financial markets will be a significant topic.

Below is a listing of all the issues and events U.S. regulators are engaged in this week, along with relevant think tank and trade association events.   Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

U.S. Senate

• The Senate is out of session this coming week and the following week.

House of Representatives

• February 14, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing entitled “ Oversight of the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (Fin CEN) and the Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence (TFI).  Witnesses testifying include:

  • The Honorable Brian E. Nelson, Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence (TFI), U.S. Department of the Treasury

  • Ms. Andrea Gacki, Director, Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN)

• February 15, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Financial Institutions and Monetary Policy holds a hearing entitled “Lender of Last Resort” Issues with the Fed Discount Window and Emergency Lending”
  
  

• February 15, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology, and Inclusion holds a hearing entitled “Crypto Crime in Context Part II: Examining Approaches to Combat Illicit Activity.”

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

• February 13, 9:20 a.m. - Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman gives a speech entitled “Defining a Bank” at the American Bankers Association Conference for Community Bankers in San Antonio, Texas.

• February 14, 4:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr gives a speech entitled “Monetary Policy and Bank Regulation” at the 40th Annual National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Economic Policy Conference, Washington, D.C.

• February 25, 1:15 p.m. – Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller entitled “The Dollar’s International Role” at the Global Interdependence Center and University of the Bahamas Conference: Climate, Currency, and Central Banking, Nassau, Bahamas

U.S. Treasury Department

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• February 13, 12:10 a.m. – SEC Chair Gary Gensler will participate in a conversation at the Yale School of Law on regulating AI.

• February 13, 4:00 p.m. – SEC Chair Gary Gensler will participate in a fireside chat at the Yale School of Management.

• February 15, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• February 13, 9:00 a.m. – The CFTC’s Energy and Environmental Markets Advisory Committee will meet at the Colorado School of Mines in Golden, Colorado.  At this meeting, the EEMAC will explore the role of rare earth minerals in transitional energy and electrification, including the potential development of derivatives products to offer price discovery and hedging opportunities in these markets. Additionally, a presentation and discussion on the federal prudential financial regulators proposed rules implementing Basel III and the implications for and impact on the derivatives market. Finally, the two EEMAC subcommittees will offer an update on their continued work related to traditional energy infrastructure and metals markets.

• February 15, 12:30 p.m. – The CFTC will hold an Open Meeting.  They will consider the following:

  • Proposed Rule: Requirements for Designated Contract Markets and Swap Execution Facilities Regarding Governance and the Mitigation of Conflicts of Interest Impacting Market Regulation Functions

  • Proposed Rule: Foreign Boards of Trade

  • Proposed Rule: Regulations to Address Margin Adequacy and to Account for the Treatment of Separate Accounts by Futures Commission Merchants

  • Application of Taiwan Futures Exchange Corporation for an Exemption from Registration as a DCO

  • ICE NGX Petition for Amended DCO Registration Order 

FINRA

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

• February 15, 10:00 a.m. – The NCUA Board meets at their headquarters in Alexandria, Virginia.  They are expected to discuss 1) the Board Briefing, 2) the Share Insurance Fund Quarterly Report, and 3) the Final Interpretive Ruling and Policy Statement of the Minority Depository Institution Preservation Program.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• February 13, 10:00 a.m. – The FTC holds an Informal Hearing on the Proposed Trade Regulation Rule on the Use of Consumer Reviews and Testimonials.

Farm Credit Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

World Bank

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Association Events

• February 11 – 14: The American Bankers Association hosts their Conference for Community Bankers in San Antonio, Texas.

• February 15, 8:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance holds a Global Macro Call entitled “Fallout From the Crisis in the Middle East”

Think Tank Events

• February 13: The American Enterprise Institute holds a conference entitled “US Outbound Investment in China: Implications and Possible Congressional Action.”

• February 14 – 16: The 40th Annual NABE Economic Policy Conference is held in Washington, D.C.  Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will speak on February 14.  Mary Daly, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, delivers a keynote luncheon address.  Also speaking to the Conference will be Natoinal Economic Council Director Lael Brainard and former ECB President Mario Draghi.

• February 15, 11:00 a.m. – The Bipartisan Policy Institute holds a seminar entitled “Housing Supply, Labor Markets, and Economic Growth”

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

The Global Week Ahead

February 4 - 11, 2024

As tensions and military action in Yemen and the South Sea continue to escalate, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken returns to the region,  traveling to Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, Israel, and the West Bank. Also in the region, French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne travels to Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Israel, the Palestinian Territories, and Lebanon to discuss the situation and seek diplomatic solutions.

Later in the week, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visits the White House for talks with President Biden on Ukraine, the Red Sea situation, and the Gaza War. We expect them to discuss transatlantic trade issues ranging from steel tariffs to electric vehicle production. 

Meanwhile, in the United States, Israeli Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana will meet with U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) in advance of a likely vote on a substantial, stand-alone aid package to Israel. While we expect such a stand-alone bill to pass overwhelmingly in the House, it will have trouble in the Senate as a bipartisan group of senators is expected to unveil a draft bill combining greater U.S. border security and military aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. How the House intends to reconcile its stand-alone effort with the more comprehensive Senate bill is unclear – especially as military aid to Ukraine becomes increasingly time-sensitive and much needed.  House Republicans have rejected any border security proposals from the Senate, saying they are not enough.

In Asia, the Lunar New Year – the Year of the Dragon – begins at the end of the week. Stock markets in China and Taiwan will be closed for the better half the week after. 

It is a relatively quiet week on the global economic report radar screen. S&P PMI reports are being reported globally. In the U.S., the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey is out this week, and CPI numbers are out later in the week. In Asia, all eyes are on China’s inflation figures.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, February 4, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken travels to Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, Israel, and the West Bank for discussion on the situation in Gaza and the Red Sea.

• El Salvador holds presidential and legislative Elections. Current President Nayib Bukele and Vice President Felix Ulloa are expected to be re-elected.

• Facebook turns 20 years old today.

• Costa Rica holds municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Today is National Day in Sri Lanka, celebrating the island nation’s independence from Great Britain in 1972.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne will travel to Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Israel, the Palestinian Territories and Lebanon through February. 6.

• The World Defense Show begins in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and runs through February 8.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Angola Independence Day, celebrating when the nation gained independence from Portugal in 1975.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday, February 5, 2024

Global

• The OECD releases its Economic Outlook 2024.

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a closed meeting on the situation in Myanmar.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Argentina President Javier Milei will visit Israel for discussion with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu through February 9.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to give welcome remarks before the virtual "Uneven Outcomes in the Labor Market" conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Boston, Cleveland, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and St. Louis.

• US S&P Services & Composite PMIs (January), ISM Services PMI (January), Loan Officer Survey

• Bank of Canada  Market Participants Survey, Canada S&P Services & Composite PMIs (January)

• Brazil FDI (December), S&P Services & Composite PMIs (January) BCB Focus Market Readout

• Colombia Exports (December)

• Uruguay Inflation (January)

• Costa Rica Unemployment (Q4)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will meet Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Tokyo, Japan.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Caixin Services & Composite PMIs (January)

• Japan Jibun Services & Composite PMIs (January)

• India HSBC Services & Composite PMIs (January)

• Singapore S&P Global PMI (January), Retail Sales (December)

• Australia Judo Bank Services & Composite PMIs (January), TD-MI Inflation Gauge (January), Balance of Trade (December), ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (January), Exports/Imports (December)

• Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (January)

• Indonesia Full Year GDP (2023), GDP (Q4)

• Thailand Inflation (January)

• Kazakhstan Tengri Partners Services PMI (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• There will be an Informal meeting of EU ministers responsible for cohesion policy in Brussels through February 6.

• Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store will meet Director of the Private Office of the NATO Secretary General Stian Jenssen during the Leangkollen Security Conference in Oslo, Norway.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Eurozone HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (January), PPI (December)

• Germany Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December), HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (January)

• UK New Car Sales (January), S&P Services & Composite PMIs (January)

• France HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (January)

• Hungary Balance of Trade (December)

• Spain HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (January), Consumer Confidence (January)

• Italy HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (January)

• Russia S&P Services & Composite PMIs (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (January)

• UAE S&P Global PMI (January)

• Turkey Inflation (January), CPI (January), PPI (January)

• Lebanon BLOM PMI (January)

• Qatar Financial Centre PMI (January), GDP (Q3)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The 30th African Mining Indaba begins in Cape Town, South Africa and goes through February 8.  This year’s them is: “Embracing the Power of Positive Disruption. South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa will be joined by Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema.  Also attending will be US Undersecretary of State for Energy Jose Fernandez.  

• A high-level ministerial conference on middle-income countries will take place in Marrakech, Morocco. The United Nations Deputy Secretary-General, Amina Mohammed, will join leaders from these countries.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa S&P Global PMI (January)

• Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (January)

Tuesday, February 6, 2024

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI).  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Israeli Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana will meet with U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson in Washington, D.C. 

The Democratic Presidential Primary takes place in Nevada.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in a question-and-answer session as part of a Greater Mankato Growth luncheon.

• Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester to give keynote before the Ohio Bankers League Economic Summit.

• Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins to give opening and overview remarks before the virtual "Uneven Outcomes in the Labor Market" virtual conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Boston, Cleveland, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and St. Louis.

• Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on "The Federal Reserve's Role in Our Economy" before a Rowan Institute for Public Policy & Citizenship event.

• US Redbook (February 3), Total Household Debt (Q4), RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (February), API Crude Oil Stock Change (February 2)

• Canada Building Permits (December), Ivey PMI s.a. (January)

• Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes, Bank Lending (December)

• Colombia Inflation (January)

• Argentina Industrial Production (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Household Spending (December), Overtime Pay (December)

• Philippines Inflation (January)

• Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision and press conference, Australia Retail Sales (December)

• Taiwan Inflation (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• In the UK, former Prime Minister Liz Truss will launch a new political grouping of Tory MPs, Popular Conservatism. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Economic Bulletin

• Eurozone HCOB Construction PMI (January), Retail Sales (December), Consumer Inflation Expectations (December)

• France Construction PMI (January)

• Germany Factory Orders (December), HCOB Construction PMI (January), New Car Registrations (January)

• UK SUP Global Construction PMI (January)

• Italy HCOB Construction PMI (January), Business Confidence (January), Consumer Confidence (January)

• Romania Retail Sales (December)

• Hungary Industrial Production (December), Retail Sales (January)

• UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (January)

• Ireland AIB Services PMI (January)

• Russia Vehicle Sales (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Tourist Arrivals (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, February 7, 2024

Global

• New York Federal Reserve’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler to speak on "The Outlook for the Economy and Monetary Policy" before the Brookings Institution.

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman to speak on "Supporting Entrepreneurship and Small Businesses" before the virtual "Uneven Outcomes in the Labor Market" conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Boston, Cleveland, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and St. Louis.

• Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to participate in conversation before the Economic Club of Washington D.C

• Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins to give perspectives on the economy before the Boston Economic Club.

• US Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December), EIA Crude Oil Stock Change (February 2), MBA Mortgage Market Index (February 2), LMI Logistics Managers Index (January), Used Car Prices (January)

• Canada Bank of Canada Summary of Deliberations,  Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December)

• Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (December), Nominal Budget Balance (December), Retail Sales (December), Balance of Trade (January)

• Mexico Consumer Confidence (January), Auto Exports (January)

• Chile Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (January)

• Costa Rica Inflation (January)

• Colombia Inflation (January)

• Peru Balance of Trade (December)

• El Salvador Inflation (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet  makes his first official visit to Thailand. While there, he is expected to hold talks on the resumption of talks over a 26,000-square kilometer area in the Gulf of Thailand where the two countries have overlapping natural gas claims. Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin is eager to make progress on a deal to develop the area jointly as costly imports of liquefied natural gas weigh on the economy.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Korea Current Account (December)

• Japan FX Reserves (January), Coincident Index (December), Leading Economic Index (December)

• India M3 Money Supply (January 22)

• Australia Reserve Bank Chart Pack, Ai Group Industry Index (January), Ai Group Construction Index (January), Ai Group Manufacturing Index (January)

• Philippines Unemployment (December), Industrial Production (December), FX Reserves (January)

• Indonesia FX Reserves (January)

• Thailand Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Taiwan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (January), FX Reserves (January)

• Singapore FX Reserves (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Azerbaijan holds presidential elections. President Ilham Aliyev announced elections a year earlier than scheduled. He has been in power since 2003, and there are no term limits.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden will give a keynote speech at the UK Women in Economics Annual Networking Event in London.

• Germany Industrial Production (December)

• UK Halifax House Price Index (January), RICS House Price Balance (January)

• France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December), FX Reserves (January), Private Non-Farm Payrolls (Q4)

• Spain Industrial Production (December)

• Switzerland Unemployment (January), FX Reserves (January)

• Italy Retail Sales (December)

• Greece Balance of Trade (December)

• Ukraine FX Reserves (January)

• Russia GDP (December), Unemployment (December), Business Confidence (January), Corporate Profits

• (November), Real Wage Growth (November), Retail Sales (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Jordan PPI (December)

• Egypt FX Reserves (January)

• Israel Business Confidence (January)

• Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The West African bloc, Ecowas, will meet to discuss the decision of three military junta-led member states to pull out of the economic group.  The extraordinary meeting of its mediation and security council will gather in Abuja to go over the joint decision by Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa FX Reserves (January)

Thursday, February 8, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The US Supreme Court will hear arguments over whether former President Donald Trump can be disqualified from the primary ballot in Colorado.

• The Republican Presidential Primary takes place in Nevada.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Initial Jobless Claims (February 3), Wholesale Inventories (December), EIA Natural Gas Stocks (February 2), WASDE Report,

• Brazil Inflation (January)

• Mexico Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Inflation (January)

• Chile Inflation (January)

• Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Inflation (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Pakistan holds general elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Inflation (January), PPI (January), FX Reserves (January)

• Japan Current Account (December), Bank Lending (January), Eco Watchers Survey (January)

• India Reserve Bank Interest Rate Decision, Cash Reserve Ratio

• Australia Building Permits (December), Private House Approvals (December)

• Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• There will be an informal meeting of EU competitiveness ministers (Internal market and industry) in Brussels through February 9.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of England External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Catherine Mann gives a speech at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) ‘Inflation Dynamics and drivers: looking under the bonnet’ in London.

• ECB Board Member Frank Elderson participates in a panel discussion at the joint Institute for Sustainable Process Technology (ISPT) and Port of Rotterdam Conference ’24 "Material change" in Rotterdam, Netherlands.

• ECB Board Member Philip Lane participates in a Fireside-chat at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC,

• UK RICS House Price Balance (January)

• Hungary Budget Balance (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Inflation (January)

• Egypt Inflation (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• South African President Cyril Ramaphosa gives the annual State of the Nation Address.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Manufacturing Production (December)

• Tanzania Inflation (January)

Friday, February 9, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Argentine President Javier Milei will meet with Pope Francis in Rome.  He will then meet with Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni.

• Chancellor Olaf Scholz travels to the US for a two-day visit, including meeting President Biden at the White House to discuss the War in Ukraine and trade issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (February 9)

• Canada Unemployment (January), Average Hourly Wage (January), Senior Loan Officer Survey

• Mexico Industrial Production (December)

• El Salvador PPI (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Australia will host the 2024 Indian Ocean Conference.

• Financial markets are closed in China for the Lunar New Year until February 18.  The Hong Kong Stock Exchange will be closed from February 10 to February 13, and the Taiwanese Stock Exchange will be closed from February 6 through February 14.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Current Account (Q4)

• India Bank Loan Growth (January 26), FX Reserves (February 2)

• Philippines FDI (November)

• Thailand Consumer Confidence (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a keynote address at the 30th Assiom Forex Annual Congress "The Future is our Present" in Genoa, Italy.

• Germany Inflation (January), CPI (January)

• Romania Balance of Trade (December)

• Hungary Inflation (January)

• Italy Industrial Production (December)

• Greece Industrial Production (December)

• Ireland Industrial Production (December)

• Ukraine Inflation (January)

• Belarus Inflation (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Industrial Production (December)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, February 10, 2024

Global

Nothing significant to report. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The Lunar New Year, the Year of the Dragon, begins.  It is celebrated across different Asian countries, including China, South Korea, North Korea, Singapore and Cambodia.  But in Thailand, the Year of the Naga, a mythical water serpent, begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Vehicle Sales (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 11, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

• Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The US Super Bowl is played in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Berlin will have a partial rerun of elections.

• Finland holds a presidential run-off election.

• There will be an Informal meeting of EU ministers for development through February 12 in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

NYSE Closing Bell

Listing of the latest DWS Xtracker

I was delighted and proud to participate this past week in the New York Stock Exchange’s Closing Bell ceremony. We were there to celebrate the listing of DWS Xtrackers US National Critical Technologies ETF. A great event and my gratitude to DWS for letting me be a part of it all!

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

February 5 - 9, 2024

The work of the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) gets a thorough review this coming week as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen testifies before both the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee.  Secretary Yellen will present the FSOC's annual report.  We should expect a wide range of regulatory issues - particularly the Federal Reserve's proposed bank capital rulemaking as well as the CFPB's recent proposal on overdraft fees to come under intense criticism.

Also, this coming week, the SEC will be considering new regulations as to whether to further define the phrase "as a part of a regular business" as used in the statutory definitions of the terms "dealer" and "government securities dealer." This is all part of SEC Chair Gary Gensler's efforts to reform the Treasury bond trading system.

Speaking of the SEC: In a House Financial Services Committee hearing last week looking at the SEC's proposed changes to how investment advisors should crypto, real estate, and other assets, Representative Andy Barr (R-KY) released letters from both Fed Chair Jay Powell and Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu expressing their concerns over the proposal.  Barr had sought their views on the proposal and, in a surprise to many, both Powell and Hsu responded in advance of the hearing, expressing their criticisms (this seems to be a new thing in the Washington regulatory space: Financial regulators criticizing other regulators publicly when they disagree on proposed regulations instead of working it out quietly behind the scenes– recall our note from last week pointing out the sharp public criticism Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman leveled at Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr's capital requirement rule).  

Powell said the proposed rule "…requires a significant change in custody practices at depository institutions," while Hsu said it "would be a departure from the usual manner in which bank custodians hold clients' cash" while its "liability and indemnification requirements would be another departure from current practice." Clearly, the SEC is headed to a significant revision in the proposal.

Below is a listing of all the issues and events U.S. regulators are engaged in this week, along with relevant think tank and trade association events.   Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

U.S. Senate

• February 8, 9:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing entitled “The Financial Stability Oversight Council Annual Report to Congress.”   Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will testify and present the report.

House of Representatives

• February 6, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing on “the Annual Report of the Financial Stability Oversight Council.”  Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will testify and present the report.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

• February 7, 11:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler will give a speech on “The Outlook for the Economy and Monetary Policy” at the Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C.

• February 7, 2:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman will give a speech on “Supporting Entrepreneurship and Small Businesses” at the Uneven Outcomes in the Labor Market Conference, co-hosted by the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Boston, Cleveland, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and St. Louis (via pre-recorded video).

U.S. Treasury Department

• Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will testify before the House Financial Services Committee on February 6 (10:00 a.m.) and the Senate Banking Committee on February 8 (9:00 a.m.) to present the Annual Report of the Financial Stability Council.  See above for links to watch online.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• February 6, 10:00 a.m. – the SEC will hold an Open Meeting to consider new regulations concerning “The Definition of a Dealer and Government Securities Deal in Connection with Certain Liquidity Providers.”

• February 8, 2:00 p.m. – the SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• February 8, 12:00 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will deliver a keynote address at the Women in Housing & Finance’s monthly public policy luncheon.  The event will be held at the law firm Dechert LLP in Washington, D.C.

• February 9, 8:45 a.m. PST/11:45 a.m. EST – CFTC Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will speak on a panel titled “Regulator Deep Dive” at the FIA-SIFMA AMG Asset Management Derivatives Forum 2024.  The Forum is being held at the Ritz-Carlton in Dana Point, California.

FINRA

• February 6: FINRA holds its 2024 Cybersecurity Conference in New York.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• There are no significant meetings or events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• February 8, 8:00 a.m. – 5:45 p.m. – The OCC will hold a Symposium on the Tokenization of Real-World Assets and Liabilities at the OCC Headquarters in Washington, D.C.  A full agenda of the event can be found HERE.  Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu will give opening remarks.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• There are no significant meetings or events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

• February 6, 11:00 a.m. – NCUA Chairman Todd Harper will speak at the Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• There are no significant meetings or events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

• February 8, 10:00 a.m. – The FCA Board will meet in a hybrid physical/virtual meeting to consider the final rule on risk weighting of high-volatility commercial real estate.  The physical meeting will take place at the FCA headquarters in McLean, Virginia.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

• February 7, 10:00 a.m. – The FCSIC Board of Directors will meet to review and set Insurance Premium Accrual Rates at the FCSIC headquarters in McLean, Virginia. 

World Bank

• February 5, 9:00 a.m. – World Bank President Ajay Banga will speak at the Center for Global Development on the future of the World Bank.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Association Events

• February 6 – 8 – The Investment Company Institute holds its 2024 ICI Innovate Conference in San Diego, California.

• February 7-9 – SIFMA holds its annual Asset Management Derivatives Forum 2024 in Dana Point, California.

Think Tank Events

• February 6, 8:30 a.m. – NextGov/FCW hosts Zero Trust Workshop 2024 in Washington, D.C.  Scott Braus, Director of Cybersecurity Operations, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), will speak.

• February 6, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a virtual event entitled “China’s Overhaul of its Financial Supervisory Architecture.”  

• February 7, 12:30 p.m. – The Economic Club of Washington, D.C., holds a discussion on "the 2024 economic outlook, the regional economy, and the economic indicators the Federal Reserve monitors to guide its decisions on monetary policy." Tom Barkin, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, and Jodie McLean, CEO of EDENS, chair of the board of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, and Economic Club Board member, will speak.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reads

February 2 - 4, 2024

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list. 

Global Terrorism, Crime, and Economics 

• “Terrorism in Developing and Advanced Economies: A Historical Look”  Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

  Acts of terrorism occur throughout the globe, yet the toll on human lives and economic activity can weigh much heavier in different parts of the world.  For example, 83% of attacks worldwide from 2002 to 2019 occurred in South Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa.1 Many nations in these regions are relatively poor and lack state capacity to counter terror threats effectively.2 Terrorist attacks also create an additional challenge to economic development; studies have shown that terrorism can negatively affect the flow of foreign direct investment and bilateral trade. In this blog post, we first show the number of terrorist attacks from 1970 to 20203occurring in advanced economies and in emerging markets and developing economies as defined by the International Monetary Fund. For brevity, we use the term “developing economies” to refer to this latter group. Second, we list the top 25 nations and territories ranked by cumulative number of terrorist attacks in the post-9/11 period (2002-20). Finally, we list the top 25 nations and territories ranked by per capita terrorist attacks, again over the post-9/11 period.

• “Inside the Crime Rings Trafficking Sand”   Scientific American

  Organized crime is mining sand from rivers and coasts to feed demand worldwide, ruining ecosystems and communities. Every year the world uses up to 50 billion metric tons of sand, according to a United Nations Environment Program report. The only natural resource more widely consumed is water. A 2022 study by researchers at the University of Amsterdam concluded that we are dredging river sand at rates that far outstrip nature's ability to replace it, so much so that the world could run out of construction-grade sand by 2050. The U.N. report confirms that sand mining at current rates is unsustainable. Can it be stopped?

The Americas

• “Help the Heartland? The Employment and Electoral Effects of the Trump Tariffs in the United States”  Working Paper/National Bureau of Economic Research

  Abstract: We study the economic and political consequences of the 2018-2019 trade war between the United States, China, and other US trade partners at the detailed geographic level, exploiting measures of local exposure to US import tariffs, foreign retaliatory tariffs, and US compensation programs. The trade war has not to date provided economic help to the US heartland: import tariffs on foreign goods neither raised nor lowered US employment in newly-protected sectors; retaliatory tariffs had clear negative employment impacts, primarily in agriculture; and these harms were only partly mitigated by compensatory US agricultural subsidies. Consistent with expressive views of politics, the tariff war appears nevertheless to have been a political success for the governing Republican party. Residents of regions more exposed to import tariffs became less likely to identify as Democrats, more likely to vote to reelect Donald Trump in 2020, and more likely to elect Republicans to Congress. Foreign retaliatory tariffs only modestly weakened that support.

• “When Journalism Dies”  Sebastian Junger/National Review

  Award-winning journalist, author (“The Perfect Storm”), and Academy Award nominee Sebastian Junger writes a fascinating essay on the state of international reporting and journalism in the US today.

Russia

• “Russia’s Mortgage Bubble”  The Bell

  One of the most significant aberrations in the Russian economy at the moment is an apparent mortgage bubble. According to data published this week, the total mortgage portfolio of Russian banks rose a record 34.5% year-on-year in 2023 (compared to 20.4% rise the year before). There’s no mystery about the reason: state-subsidized lending. As the mortgage boom continues, the Central Bank is lobbying for an end to most preferential mortgages, arguing that low-income taxpayers are subsidizing homes for those rich enough to save a deposit and service a loan. But the war in Ukraine makes this a politically sensitive topic: those most likely to benefit from subsidized mortgages are often in the security forces or the military – groups the Kremlin must keep on its side.

European Union

• “Europe’s Greens Are on the Ropes”  Politico EU

  Farmers’ ire and a right-wing surge are testing the EU’s climate goals. And the Greens that backed them are teetering.  The Greens now face a stark choice as they strategize for their next big electoral test in the June EU elections: compromise to save the best of the Green Deal or stick to their ideals and risk their calls for a greener agenda being sidelined. 

• “EU-China Relations in 2024”  MERICS China Podcast

  What are the most pressing issues in EU-China relations in 2024? What does Europe need to focus on in managing relations with China? How might China seek to exploit the campaign season, in which Europe will be preoccupied with its own problems? In this podcast, Abigaël Vasselier, Director of Policy & European Affairs/Head of Program Foreign Relations at MERICS, discusses these and other questions with Claudia Wessling, Director of Communications and Publications.

• “Italy’s G7 presidency can be a breakthrough for the ‘West’ and the ‘Rest”   Atlantic Council

  As it begins its Group of Seven (G7) presidency, Italy has an opportunity to leverage its unique historical and cultural perspective to act as a bridge-builder between the “West” and the “Rest” of the world. Indeed, it must do so because a more inclusive and collaborative approach between these two blocs has become imperative.  The dichotomy between the West and the Rest has come to the fore over the past few years, marked by the return of war in Europe and great power competition—embodied most clearly by the rivalry between China and the United States.

Chart of the Week

Iran’s Oil Production has Surged to a 5-Year High

As tensions in the Middle East continue to grow with Iranian-sponsored provocations and attacks, it is worth noting Iran’s oil production – despite US and EU sanctions – has steadily surged.   Will the US and EU move to tighten sanctions on Iranian oil?  And if so, what impact would that have on global oil prices and the economic recoveries in the US and EU?  Most likely, it would cause a surge in oil prices and ultimately reach around to slow economic growth.  But one thing is clear: The question is now on the table in Brussels and Washington, D.C., as to whether tougher sanctions will help strip Tehran of a critical revenue stream.

Global Challenges Impacting U.S. Agricultural Exports

A Changing Geopolitical Landscape is Proving Challenging to America’s Farmers

I had the great privilege of addressing the Iowa Soybean Association on January 29, 2024, in Des Moines, Iowa. America’s farmers are, in many ways, more keenly focused on - and deeply understanding of - geopolitical risk than just about any other profession. What happens in the Red Sea or in the Panama Canal has a direct impact on their product and delivery - and inflationary pressures here in the US, in significant parts of Asia, and in the EU (see map below):

Below is the full presentation that served, I am proud to say, as the groundwork for a lively and really fun discussion with the attendees. Thank you, Iowa Soybean Association, for having me. I really enjoyed it!

The Global Week Ahead

January 28 - February 4, 2024

This coming week, the Gaza War will likely dominate geopolitical attention. Senior intelligence officials from Israel, the US, and Egypt, along with the Qatari Prime Minister, will gather to discuss efforts to reach a deal with Hamas on the release of Israeli hostages. On the table is a possible two-month pause in fighting in return for the hostages. 

 CIA Director Bill Burns, Mossad Director David Barnea, Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel, and Qatari Prime Minister Sheik Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani will meet in a still-undisclosed location in Europe to negotiate all this and perhaps more: Hamas is also demanding a number of Palestinian prisoners be released as part of the deal, many of them reportedly some of the most dangerous and violent terrorists in prison.  The question markets will ask: If an agreement is reached, will it also create at least a temporary suspension of Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea?  

Also this week, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will travel to the US for high-level meetings with senior Biden Administration officials, all four Congressional leaders, give a speech at the conservative think tank, the Heritage Foundation (which has been a critic of continued military aid to Ukraine) all as a part of an effort to unlock the frozen Congressional funding legislation for Ukraine (as well as Israel).

That effort has been tripped up by efforts to find a compromise measure on more significant US border security measures, which, at this point, appear to be dead as House Speaker Michael Johnson (R-LA) sent a letter to colleagues stating what he understood to be the likely points of agreement to small and unworkable. 

Ukraine aid will also be a major issue in the EU this week as there will be a special meeting of the European Council in Brussels to consider a $54 billion financial aid package for the beleaguered country. 

In Latin America this week, two significant events are worth markets watching closely: First, Argentinean President Javier Milei’s massive fiscal reform package will be considered by the Argentinian Congress. Milei is facing enormous push-back from labor unions opposing his plan, with more than 80,000 union members taking to the streets last week in protest. 

The second event is that the US is likely to announce whether they will “snap back” on an agreement (the Barbados Agreement) reached with Venezuela in October 2023 granting a relaxation of US sanctions on the regime in return for allowing free and fair elections. Venezuelan President Nicholás Maduro, while freeing some political opponents from jail, has effectively flaunted the agreement ever since, denying the ability of anyone to run against him in elections, arresting other political opponents, and significantly raising tensions in the region by threatening to invade neighboring Guyana. Reimposing sanctions on Venezuela will likely have a measurable impact on global oil prices. 

Finally, turning back to the US, presidential politics are increasingly going to dominate the focus of markets in the weeks ahead now that the Republican New Hampshire Presidential primary is behind us. All eyes are now turning to South Carolina. Democrats hold their first primary in the Palmetto State this coming Saturday, where President Biden’s victory is assured. Republicans have their primary on February 24th, but there is one Republican primary before it: Nevada on February 8th, where former President Trump is expected to win soundly.  

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, all eyes will be glued to the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee meeting and Fed Chair Jay Powell’s subsequent press conference for the slightest hint of interest rates coming down. The Bank of England is also meeting this week to consider rates.  

Many important economic reports are coming out this week, too.  The US markets will be looking at the US labor market report on Friday and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index on Tuesday. Additionally, the US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement comes out Wednesday (for a great inside look at who and how that is done, this Wall Street Journal profile is fun and informative: “The Most Important Man in Finance You’ve Never Heard Of”).  

Several CPI prints are released in the EU along with Eurozone and German GDP results. In Asia, China’s official CPI and Caixin CPI reports are released, and in Japan, markets will be watching industrial production and consumer confidence report results.  

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, January 28, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

•  Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• China’s month-long Lunar New Year travel season begins this weekend.  An estimated 1.8 billion trips by mass transit and 7 billion trips by car are expected.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Finland holds presidential elections.  Center-Right candidate Alexander Stubb is leading slightly in polls against Green Party leader Pekka Haavisto.   If there is a need for a run-off, it will be held on February 11.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Senior US, Israeli, Qatari, and Egyptian officials are expected to meet in Europe(exact location not disclosed) this weekend to discuss ongoing negotiations with Hamas for the release of Israeli hostages. CIA Director William Burns, Mossad Director David Barnea, Egyptian Intelligence Director Abbas Kamel, and Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed Al Thani are expected to attend. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The Italy-Africa Summit will be held in Rome, Italy.  Leaders from Africa will meet with Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni to discuss a number of issues, particularly migration issues.  EU President Ursula von der Leyen will also participate.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday, January 29, 2024

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on ICC Sudan.

• At the UN, the World Food Programme (WFP) and the Permanent Mission of Germany to the United Nations are organizing a panel discussion titled Strengthening the Resilience of Agricultural Systems and Food Security in the Sahel. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will travel to the US for meetings with Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III, as well as U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. On January 30, he will meet with the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Mike Johnson, Democratic Leader of the House, Hakeem Jeffries, Republican Leader of the Senate, Mitch McConnell, as well as other Democratic and Republican Representatives and Senators.  Then on January 30, he will deliver a speech at the Heritage Foundation. On the same day, he will also travel to Troy, Alabama, and visit the Missiles and Fire Control Facility of Lockheed Martin. He will wrap up his visit to the US on February 1 when he goes to Tampa, Florida, to visit the headquarters of the US Special Operations Command.

• Colombia’s latest six-month cease-fire with the Marxist insurgent National Liberation Army group is set to expire.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (January)

• Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (December), Nominal Budget Balance (December), BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. will visit Vietnam through Jan. 30.  While there, he is expected to sign a coastguard deal with Vietnam boosting cooperation between the two countries.  China is strongly opposed to the deal.

• Hong Kong's High Court will hear a winding-up petition for troubled Chinese property developer Evergrande Group.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Vietnam Balance of Trade (January), Industrial Production (January), Inflation (January), Retail Sales (January), Tourist Arrivals (January)

• Singapore Monetary Policy Statement, Export & Import Prices (December), PPI (December)

• Thailand New Car Sales (December)

• Pakistan Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The 15th meeting of the Accession Conference with Montenegro will be held in Brussels.  The intergovernmental conference will provide a forum for political dialogue between the EU member states and Montenegro on the country’s reforms, take stock of the overall accession process, and provide political steer for future work. The focus of the meeting is expected to be on the key reforms that would allow Montenegro to make further progress in its accession process.

• Georgia's ruling party will hold its first meeting with the parliamentary opposition on implementing the European Commission's requirements to begin EU membership negotiations.

• The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  On the agenda is a discussion of the defense of democracy and the annual rule of law dialogue.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Vice President Luis de Guindos gives at the Investment Outlook Conference organized by Citi Private Bank in Madrid, Spain.

• Bank of England Director of Financial Stability, Strategy, and Risk Lee Foulger speaks at the AFME/DealCatalyst European Direct Lending & Middle Market Finance Conference in London.

• Ireland Consumer Confidence (January), Retail Sales (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian will meet with Pakistani Foreign Minister Jalil Abbas Jilani in Pakistan to improve ties.  The meeting comes after the Iranian Air Force conducted raids on January 18 against Baluch militant groups and subsequent retaliatory air strikes by Pakistani fighters against militants hiding inside Iran.

• Turkey's opposition Nationalist Movement Party will launch its election campaign ahead of the March local elections. Istanbul’s Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu is running for re-election as Mayor in the March 31 local election and is seen as a likely opponent to incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in national elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel M1 Money Supply (December)

• Qatar GDP (Q3), Balance of Trade (December)

• Kuwait M2 Money Supply (December), Private Bank Lending (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (January)

Tuesday, January 30, 2024 

Global

• The IMF releases its Economic Outlook update in Johannesburg, South Africa.

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an adoption of the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP); this will be followed by a meeting in the Middle East. In the afternoon, there will be consultations at the United Nations Regional Center for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA).

• The UN Environment Programme Finance Initiative (UNEP FI) is hosting its Regional Roundtable on Sustainable Finance for Latin America and the Caribbean on 30-31 January in Bogotá, Colombia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Argentina's lower house of Congress will vote on President Javier Milei's omnibus reforms.  The massive reform package is facing widespread opposition from unions and Milei’s political opponents. 

• The US State Department is expected to reveal whether the US will reimpose sanctions on Venezuela for failing to comply with the terms of an agreement that allowed the relaxation of US sanctions on the country in return for free and fair elections – something Venezuelan President Maduro effectively flaunted within days of the agreement, denying opposition candidates the opportunity to run.

• The EU-U.S. Trade and Technology Council summit will take place at the U.S. State Department in Washington, D.C.   they are expected to discuss discussions around sustainable trade and artificial intelligence, among other issues.

• US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo will join Margrethe Vestager, Executive Vice President of the European Commission for Europe, to discuss US-EU trade and technology policy at the Atlantic Council in Washington, D.C.  

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Redbook (January 27), S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index (November), JOLTs Job Openings (December), the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence (January), Dallas Fed Services Index (January), Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (January)

• Brazil IGP-M Inflation (January)

• Mexico GDP (Q4), Fiscal Balance (December)

• Chile Unemployment (December)

• El Salvador Balance of Trade (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will give a policy speech for the new 150-day parliamentary session.  Kishida and his LDP Party is facing heavy scrutiny over an alleged slush fund scandal.  Kishida is seeking an early passage of a draft budget for the fiscal year starting in April worth ¥112.57 trillion ($762 billion), which was increased in the wake of the quake that hit the Noto Peninsula on the Sea of Japan coast.

• Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. will visit Vietnam through Jan. 30.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Unemployment (December)

• Australia Retail Sales (December)

• Philippines PPI (December)

• Taiwan Consumer Confidence (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• There will be an informal meeting of EU Defense Ministers through January 31 in Brussels.  meetings will allow the Defense Ministers to make presentations on the key defense challenges facing their countries.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane gives opening remarks at a conference entitled 'A year with the euro in Croatia' organized by Hrvatska narodna banka in Zagreb, Croatia.

• ECB Board Member Anneli Tuomine participates in a webinar organized by European Banking Institute on book launch: "Artificial Intelligence and Market Abuse".

• Eurozone GDP (Q4), Economic Sentiment (January), Consumer Confidence (January), Consumer Inflation Expectations (January), Industrial Sentiment (January), Selling Price Expectations (January), Services Sentiment (January)

• Germany GDP (Q4)

• UK BoE Consumer Credit (December), Mortgage Approvals & Lending (December)

• Ireland GDP (Q4), Wholesale Prices (December)

• Greece PPI (December)

• Italy PPI (December)

• France GDP (Q4), Household Consumption (December)

• Switzerland Balance of Trade (December), KOF Leading Indicators (January)

• Spain GDP (Q4), Inflation (January), Business Confidence (January)

• Hungary Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November), M3 Money Supply (December), Private Bank Lending (December)

• Turkey Economic Confidence Index (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Zambia M3 Money Supply (December), Private Sector Credit (December), Budget Balance (December)

Wednesday, January 31, 2024

Global

• the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the 2140 Committee and another briefing on ICC Libya.

•  The UN Committee on the Exercise of the Inalienable Rights of the Palestinian People will convene the first Committee Meeting of the year. At this meeting, the UN Secretary–General, António Guterres, will preside over the Bureau elections, and the Committee will adopt its Programme of Work for 2024. The Permanent Representative of South Africa and the Director of the UNRWA Representative office in New York are expected to brief.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• US Trade Representative Kathrine Tau will meet with European Commission officials in Brussels through February 1.  While there, Ambassador Tai will participate in a fireside chat at the Antitrust, Regulation, and the Next World Order Conference hosted by Cristina Caffarra and the Capitol Forum. More information can be found on the conference website.  On February 1, Ambassador Tai will meet with the European Commission Executive Vice-President for the European Green Deal Maroš Šefčovič. Ambassador Tai will also meet with European Justice Commissioner Didier Reynders.

• The US House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party will hold a hearing entitled “The CP Cyber Threat to the American Homeland and National Security.”  FBI Director Christopher Wray, General Paul Nakasone, Commander, United States Cyber Command, Jen Easterly, Director, Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, Harry Coker, Jr., Director, Office of the National Cyber Director, will testify.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Interest Rate Decision and press conference.

• US MBA Mortgage Market Index (January 28), ADP Employment Change (January), Treasury Refunding Announcement, Chicago PMI (January), EIA Crude Oil Stocks (January 26)

• Canada GDP (November & December)

• Brazil Unemployment (December), Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Net Payrolls (December)

• Chile Copper Production (December), Industrial Production (December), Manufacturing Production (December), Retail Sales (December), Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Uruguay Balance of Trade (December)

• Colombia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Unemployment (December), Cement Production (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• In Thailand, the Constitutional Court will rule whether opposition lawmaker Pita Limjaroenrat and his Move Forward Party conspired to overthrow Thailand's system of constitutional monarchy through its signature policy of amending laws that criminalize royal insult.

• Today is Nauru Independence Day, marking when the nation declared independence in 1968.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China NBS Manufacturing PMI (January), NBS General PMI (January)

• Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions released, Industrial Production (December), Retail Sales (December), Consumer Confidence (January), Housing Starts (December), Construction Orders (December)

• India Government Budget Value, Infrastructure Output (December)

• South Korea Industrial Production (December), Retail Sales (December)

• Australia Inflation (Q4), Housing Credit (December), CPI (Q4), Private Sector Credit (December)

• Taiwan GDP (Q4)

• Hong Kong GDP (Q4)

• Philippines Full Year GDP (2023), GDP (Q4)

• Singapore Bank Lending (December), Unemployment (Q4), Business Confidence (Q4)

• Thailand Industrial Production (December), Current Account (December), Private Consumption (December), Private Investment (December)

• Sri Lanka Inflation (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Bank Lending Survey

• Germany Retail Sales (December), Import Prices (December), Unemployment (January), Inflation (January)

• France Inflation (January), PPI (December)

• Italy Unemployment (December), Industrial Production (November)

• Ireland Inflation (January)

• Spain Retail Sales (December), Current Account (November)

• Hungary PPI (December)

• Switzerland Retail Sales (December), Economic Sentiment Index (January)

• Poland Full Year GDP (2023)

• Greece Retail Sales (November)

• Ukraine Current Account

• Russia Industrial Production (December), M2 Money Supply (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia GDP (Q4)

• Turkey Imports/Exports (December), Tourist Revenues (Q4), Tourist Arrivals (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nigeria FX Reserves (January)

• South Africa Balance of Trade (December)

• Mozambique Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, February 1, 2024

Global

• OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting to discuss oil production levels.  No decision is expected at this meeting.

• Guyana takes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of February.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• In Cuba, a significant increase in the price of gasoline goes into effect.  As the Center for Strategic and International Studies reported this past week, Cuba has faced a steep decline in tourism revenue following the Covid-19 pandemic, exacerbated by high global fuel prices caused by the war in Ukraine, which have contributed to years of chronic fuel shortages, resulting in frequent blackouts and long queues at gasoline pumps in what analysts have described as “the worst financial position it has been in since the collapse of the Soviet Union.” Starting in February, the regime announced that gasoline prices would increase by over 500 percent due to the government’s inability to continue sales at current subsidized prices.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Challenger Job Cuts (January), Initial Job Cuts (January), S&P Manufacturing PMI (January), ISM Manufacturing PMI (January), Construction Spending (December), ISM Manufacturing New Orders (January), ISM Manufacturing Prices (January), EIA Natural Gas Stocks (January 26)

• Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

• Brazil PPI (December), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January), Balance of Trade (January)

• Mexico Business Confidence (January), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

• Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (December)

• Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (January)

• Argentina Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Tax Revenues (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Taiwan's legislature, which is effectively a hung parliament between three parties, will open its spring session and meet to select the president and vice president of the legislature.  In the elections, the Kuomintang (KMT) won 52 seats, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) secured 51, and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) won eight.

• Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is set to present an interim national budget just before the country's general election in April-May.

• Today is Federal Territory Day in Malaysia, marking the day Kuala Lumpur was transferred from the state of Selangor to the Federal Government.  Financial Markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (January)

• Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (January)

• India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (January)

• Hong Kong Retail Sales (December)

• South Kora Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (January)

• Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (January), Building Permits (December), Import & Export Prices (Q4), Private House Approvals (December), CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (January), Commodity Prices (January)

• Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January), Indonesia Inflation (January), Tourist Arrivals (December)

• Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

• Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

• Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

• Pakistan Consumer Confidence (December & January), Balance of Trade (January), Inflation (January), Wholesale Prices (January)

• Sri Lanka Balance of Trade (December)

• Kazakhstan Current Account (Q4), Tengri Partners Manufacturing PMI (January), Inflation (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson will meet Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in Brussels, Belgium, to discuss Hungary's ratification of Sweden's bid to join NATO.  Orban has been holding up Sweden’s membership in NATO.  Turkey just ratified Sweden’s accession last week.

• There will be a special meeting of the European Council in Brussels. The most pressing item on the agenda will be the approval of long-term funding for Ukraine – an estimated $54 billion financial aid package. Also, the meeting is a follow-up to the European Council meetings of December 14-15, and they will now discuss the mid-term revisions to the EU long-term budget 2021-2027.  

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane gives remarks at an event organized by Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF) in Rome, Italy.

• Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January), Inflation (January), Unemployment Rate (December), CPI (January)

• Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January)

• France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January)

• Bank of England Interest Rate Decision and Meeting Minutes, UK Nationwide Housing Prices (January), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January), Labor Productivity (Q3)

• Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January)m Inflation (January)

• Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (January)

• Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

• Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January), New Car Sales (January)

• Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January), Unemployment (December)

• Switzerland procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (January)

• Romania Unemployment (December)

• Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (January)

• Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Egypt Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, M2 Money Supply (December), Overnight Lending Rights

• Turkey MPC Meeting Summary, Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (January), FX Reserves (January 26)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (January)

• South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (January), Total New Vehicle Sales (January) 

Friday, February 2, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• It’s Groundhog Day!  Will Punxsutawney Phil see his shadow, predicting six more weeks of winter?

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Non-Farm Payrolls (January), Participation Rate (January), Factory Orders (December), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (January), Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (January), Michigan Current Conditions (January), Baker-Hughes Oil Rig Count (February 2), Total Vehicle Sales (January)

• Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (January), Industrial Production (December)

• Mexico FX Reserves (December)

• Paraguay Inflation (January)

• Costa Rica Unemployment (Q4)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• India FX Reserves (January 26)

• South Kora Inflation (January), CPI (January)

• Australia Home Loans (January), Investment Lending for Homes (December), PPI (Q4)

• Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU-ASEAN Ministerial meeting will take place in Brussels. 

• There will be an informal meeting of EU Foreign Affairs Ministers in Brussels.

• The German Bundestag is expected to finalize a new budget in the wake of an unexpected ruling from the German Constitutional Court last November, forcing a massive rewrite and brief fiscal crisis for the country.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

• France Industrial Production (December), Budget Balance (December), New Car Registrations (January)

• Spain Unemployment (January), Tourist Arrivals (December)

• Switzerland Consumer Confidence (Q1)

• Romania PPI (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Imports/Exports/ Balance of Trade (January),  Auto Sales (January)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, February 3, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The Democratic Party holds its first presidential primary in South Carolina.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 4, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• El Salvador holds presidential and legislative Elections. Current President Nayib Bukele and Vice President Felix Ulloa are expected to be re-elected.

• Facebook turns 20 years old today.

• Costa Rica holds municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Today is National Day in Sri Lanka, celebrating the island nation’s independence from Great Britain in 1972.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Angola Independence Day, celebrating when the nation gained independence from Portugal in 1975.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reading

January 26 - 28, 2024

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list. 

The Americas

• “2023: A Year of Mexican Oil to Cuba”  Center for Strategic and International Studies

  Cuba is in a deep energy crisis. A steep decline in tourism revenue following the Covid-19 pandemic, exacerbated by high global fuel prices caused by the war in Ukraine, has contributed to years of chronic fuel shortages, resulting in frequent blackouts and long queues at gasoline pumps in what analysts have described as “the worst financial position it has been in since the collapse of the Soviet Union.” Starting in February, the regime announced that gasoline prices will increase by over 500 percent due to the government’s inability to continue sales at current subsidized prices.  The functioning of the Cuban economy hinges on imported petroleum. In the 1980s, Cuba depended on the USSR to supply 98 percent of its crude oil needs. Following the end of Soviet subsidies, Cuba’s so-called Special Period—a decade of widespread food rationing, mass outward migration, and paralysis of the country’s industrial and agricultural sectors—ended only after Hugo Chávez’s Venezuela agreed to barter its crude oil in exchange for Cuban doctors, teachers, and military advisors in the early 2000s.

International Economics

•   “De-dollarization reshaping central bank reserves in 2024”   OMFIF Research

  De-dollarisation has grabbed headlines as the expanded Brics bloc plans for a common currency, reducing reliance on the dollar. Though a BRICS currency is unlikely to threaten the dollar's dominance soon, it signals geopolitics will increasingly shape reserve management.  Key findings from OMFIF's Global Public Investor report, based on a survey of 75 managers controlling nearly $5tn in reserves, include: 

  • Dollar's share of reserves is expected to gradually fall five percentage points but remain above 50%

  • Renminbi likely to rise from nearly 3% now to 6% of reserves in a decade

  • Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia Pacific central banks shifting from dollar to renminbi

• “How the Fed Should Deal with Forecasting Errors”  Peterson Institute for International Economics

  Like many other central banks around the world, including the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England failed to anticipate the inflation surge of 2021 and 2022. Now Ben S. Bernanke, former chair of the Federal Reserve, has been commissioned by the Bank of England to review the Bank’s “forecasting and related processes during times of significant uncertainty.” The Financial Times reports [paywall] that, unsurprisingly, the European Central Bank and the Fed have also undertaken similar, albeit less formal, retrospective looks at what went wrong and how they might do better. The Bank of England’s move to commission a formal report prompts an interesting thought experiment: If the Federal Reserve were to request a similar outside review of its forecasting operations, what should it say?

Indo-Pacific

• “Operationalising strategic risk reduction in the Asia-Pacific Region: An Australian Perspective”   European Leadership Network

  Australia is on track to spend a historic $A50 billion on defense expenditures in 2024. A new report from the European Leadership Network (ELN) and the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network(APLN) finds that Australia’s deterrence-heavy defense strategy may, in fact, heighten the risks of inadvertent escalation rather than mitigate them and, in doing so, is creating ripe conditions for conflict in the Asia-Pacific. 

The Middle East, Israel, and the Gaza War

• “US Aid to Israel in Four Charts”  Council on Foreign Relations

  Israel, the United States closely ally in the Middle East, has been the largest cumulative recipient of U.S. foreign aid since its founding, receiving about $300 billion (adjusted for inflation) in total economic and military assistance. The United States has also provided large foreign aid packages to other Middle Eastern countries, particularly Egypt and Iraq, but Israel stands apart.

• “Israel does not want a war with Iran”  Al-Monitor Pro Podcast

  The assassination of Hamas' number two man in Beirut has deepened concerns that the conflict in Gaza will engulf neighboring Lebanon. However, Esther Solomon, the editor-in-chief of Haaretz English, dismisses the idea that Israel wants to provoke a war with Iran that would drag on the United States.

• “Were the Saudis Right About the Houthis After All?   The Atlantic

  The Houthis are a potent Iranian proxy group, and their slogan, adapted from Iranian revolutionary propaganda, is being made manifest in action. They’ve attacked Red Sea shipping lanes more than 30 times since October 17, under the implausible pretext of aiding Hamas and protesting Israeli military actions in Gaza. Washington long-held, against Saudi protestations, that the Houthis didn’t or couldn’t possibly pose a significant threat beyond Yemen. Now the United States is leading a large coalition of countries determined to restore maritime security against Houthi piracy in the Red Sea. Surely those behind Washington’s efforts are asking themselves: Were the Saudis right about the Houthis all along?

Energy

• “Winter Reliability, A Growing Not Passing Problem”  The Power Line

  The nation’s electric power grids have emerged largely unscathed from a continent-spanning snap of cold weather and winter storms this winter. This outcome stands in stark contrast to previous bulk power system failures, with grid operators resorting to load shedding in December 2021 during Winter Storm Uri and in February 2022 during Winter Storm Elliot. Though this round avoided system failures, narrow margins of error were everywhere. Across the country, winter reliability scares have now emerged as an annual tradition, one that bodes ill for the nation’s energy systems and the economic engine they power.

Map of the Week

U.S. Bases in the Middle East

As tensions grow in the Middle East – the Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, Iranian proxy militias attacking U.S. troops in Syria and Iraq – we have gotten a number of questions about the size of the U.S. military presence in the region.  The American Security Project offers an excellent map detailing where known U.S. military facilities are located in the region.  As of 2022, there are more than 170,000 U.S. troops stationed outside the United States, and as of June 2023, there are more than 30,000 US troops stationed in the Middle East alone.