The Global Week Ahead

Written By Francis Kelly

February 11 - 18, 2024

Another busy week globally.   First, we would note that Jordanian King Abdullah will meet with President Biden at the White House this week to discuss the War in Gaza and the broader security crisis in the Middle East.  Long a solid ally to the United States, Jordan has both been the target of terrorist attacks as well as striking back at Iranian militia proxy groups attacking US and other Middle Eastern forces.  While they meet, US diplomats will meet with senior Iraqi officials to determine the future of US military forces in the country.  More than 100 members of the Iraqi Parliament have signed a letter demanding US forces be kicked out.

China celebrates the Chinese New Year this week, with most businesses and financial markets closed.  But it will be a busy and important week elsewhere in the Indo-Pacific as Indonesia holds presidential elections.  Indonesia – the 4th most populous country in the world – chooses between three candidates, each with very different perspectives on the nation's future.

At the end of the week, the Munich Security Conference is held in Munich, Germany.  More than 100 presidents, prime ministers and foreign ministers will gather, and the top topics will undoubtedly be the Ukraine War and the situation in the Middle East.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to attend and make an impassioned plea for continued support from Western supporters.

On the global economic reporting radar screen this week, markets will be looking at released US inflation numbers and the strength of US retail sales data.   In the EU, markets will look for the UK inflation numbers and the German ZEW survey release.   As we mentioned, China is celebrating the Chinese New Year in Asia, so few releases are expected out of Beijing.  But Japan will release its Q4 GDP figures, which will be seen as strongly correlating with future Bank of Japan interest rate decisions.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, February 11, 2024

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • The US Super Bowl is played in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • China is celebrating the Lunar New Year through February 17. Much of the country is on holiday through the week.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • The United States and Iraq will begin a second round of discussions about the future of U.S. military presence in Iraq.  The Iraqi government has called for US military forces to leave.

  • Iran celebrates Islamic Revolution Day, marking the victory of the Islamic Revolution of 1979, deposing the Shah of Iran.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (December)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

 

Monday, February 12, 2024 

Global

  • The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security. In the afternoon, the Council is scheduled vote on the adoption of 1591 Committee, followed by consultations on the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • President Biden will host Jordan’s King Abdullah at the White House to discuss the current situation in Gaza and the greater Middle East.

  • Argentina's President Javier Milei will meet Italian President Sergio Mattarella, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Pope Francis in Rome, Italy.

  • In a federal court in New York, the trial begins of former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández on drugs and weapons charges in a Manhattan federal court.

  • Economic Reports/Events –

  • Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman gives a speech entitled “Defining a Bank” at the American Bankers Association Conference for Community Bankers in San Antonio, Texas.

  • Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in a conversation hosted by the Economic Club of Minnesota.

  • US Consumer Inflation Expectations (January), Monthly Budget Statement (January)

  • Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

  • Paraguay Balance of Trade (January)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa will visit Fiji and Samoa.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • India Industrial Production (December), Inflation (January)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan may meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Ankara, Turkey.  If the meeting happens, it is expected the two leaders will discuss the Ukraine War, efforts to restore the Black Grain Sea Initiative allowing Ukrainian grain and other agricultural products to be shipped through the Black Sea safe from Russian attack, and the Gaza War.

  • The UAE hosts the World Government Summit in Dubai.  Seen as an alternative to the World Economic Forum, the goal of the Summit is to enhance global solidarity and shape the future of governments for the betterment of humanity through optimal means. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva and a host of world leaders will participate.

  • Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares will meet Algerian Foreign Minister Ahmed Attaf in Algiers, Algeria.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Unemployment (December)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report. 

 

Tuesday, February 13, 2024

Global

  • OPEC Monthly Report is released.

  • The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate in connection with “The impact of climate change and food insecurity” under the agenda item “Maintenance of international peace and security.”

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Inflation (January), CPI (January), Redbook (February 10), API Crude Oil Stock (February 9)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan PPI (January), Machine Tool Orders (January)

  • Singapore GDP (Q4)

  • Australia NAB Business Confidence (January)

  • Indonesia Consumer Confidence (January)

  • Malaysia Construction Output (Q4)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The EU-Armenia Partnership Council meets in Brussels.  EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell and the Armenian Minister of Foreign Affairs Ararat Mirzoyan lead the respective delegations.  They are expected to discuss the state of implementation of the EU-Armenia Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement and of the EU-Armenia Partnership Priorities, as well as the possibility of moving towards a more ambitious EU-Armenia Partnership Agenda. They will also discuss political dialogue and reform, democracy, the rule of law and human rights, economic, trade, and sectoral cooperation, as well as migration, mobility, and the prospects of launching a visa liberalization dialogue.

  • German Economy Minister Robert Habeck will travel to Warsaw for political talks.

  • German Interior Minister Nancy Faese, German Domestic Intelligence Service chief Thomas Haldenwang, and German federal criminal police chief Holger Münch will host a press conference to announce new measures to combat the rise of far-right extremism.

  • The Oslo Energy Forum is held in Holmekollen through February 15.

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (January)

  • Turkey Auto Production (January)

  • Oman Inflation (January)

  • Jordan PPI (December)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Gold Production (December), Mining Production (December)

  • Angola Inflation (January)

  • Mozambique Inflation (January) 

 

Wednesday, February 14, 2024

Global

  • Today is Ash Wednesday, the start of Lent, for Christians around the world.

  • The World Trade Organization (WTO) will hold a special meeting in Geneva.

  • The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Yemen).

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr give a speech entitled “Monetary Policy and Bank Regulation” at the 40th Annual National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Economic Policy Conference, Washington, D.C.

  • Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee to participate in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Council on Foreign Relations.

  • Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Rhys Mendes participates in a panel discussion entitled “Cost of Living, Housing and Monetary Policy” at the Lazaridis School of Business and Economics at Wilfrid Lauier University.

  • US MBA Mortgage Market Index (February 9), EIA Crude Oil Stocks Chang (February 9), EIA Gasoline Stocks (February 9), EIA Crude Oil Stocks (February 9)

  • Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (December)

  • Ecuador Balance of Trade (December)

  • Colombia Consumer Confidence (January), Balance of Trade (January), Imports (December), Industrial Production (December), Retail Sales (December)

  • Paraguay Consumer Confidence (January)

  • Uruguay Industrial Production (December)

  • Argentina Inflation (January)

 

Asia

  • Political/Social Events –

  • Indonesia holds presential elections today.  The race is between Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, former Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, and former Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan.  Indonesia is the 4th most populous nation in the world, with more than 274 million citizens.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • India WPI Food Index (January), WPI Fuel Index (January), WPI Inflation (January), WPI Manufacturing (January)

  • New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (January), Food Inflation (January)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • There will be an informal meeting of EU Ministers for Development in Brussels through February 15.

  • EU member states' representatives will vote on the proposed Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive.

  • In France, a verdict is expected to be handed down in the appeal trial of former president Nicolas Sarkozy in a case regarding the funding of his 2012 election campaign.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos gives a speech at the Annual Conference of the Mediterranean Central Banks in Split, Croatia.

  • Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey to appear before the Lords’ economic affairs committee.

  • ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone gives an introductory statement at a hearing on the digital euro before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.  Later that afternoon, he participates in the CEO Summit organized by EuroCommerce in Brussels, Belgium.

  • Eurozone Employment (Q4), GDP (Q4), Industrial Production (December)

  • UK Inflation (January), PPI (January), Retail Price Index (January)

  • Ireland Residential Property Prices (December)

  • Serbia Building Permits (December), Current Account (December)

  • Hungary Construction Output (December), GDP (Q4), Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

  • Slovakia GDP (Q4)

  • Slovenia GDP (Q4)

  • Romania GDP (Q4), Industrial Production (December), Inflation (January)

  • Poland GDP (Q4)

  • Ukraine Balance of Trade (December)

  • Russia Inflation (January)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Cairo, Egypt.  They are expected to discuss the War in Gaza and the Red Sea problem, which is massively slowing shipping through the Suez Canal.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel M1 Money Supply (January)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Retail Sales (December) 

 

Thursday, February 15, 2024 

Global

  • The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), followed by consultations. In the afternoon it is scheduled to hold a briefing on the threats to international peace and security caused by terrorist acts.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller entitled “The Dollar’s International Role” at the Global Interdependence Center and University of the Bahamas Conference: Climate, Currency, and Central Banking, Nassau, Bahamas.

  • Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to speak on the economic outlook and monetary policy before the Money Marketeers of New York University.

  • US Retail Sales (January) Export & Import Prices (January) Initial Jobless Claims (February 10), New York Empire State Manufacturing Index (February), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (February), Retail Sales (January), Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions (February), Philadelphia Fed CAPEX Index (February), Philadelphia Fed New Orders (February), Industrial Production (January), Manufacturing Production (January), Business Inventories (January), NAHB Housing Market Index (February), EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (February 9), NOPA Crush Report

  • Canada Housing Starts (January), Manufacturing Sales (December)

  • Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (December)

  • Chile Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

  • Colombia GDP (Q4), ISE Economic Activity (December)

  • Peru GDP (December), Unemployment (January)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) will launch its next-generation H3 rocket from the Tanegashima Space Center. The launch comes 11 months after the failure of the H3's maiden flight in March and is an attempt by the Japanese space agency to redeem itself. Japan hopes a successful launch will clear the way for the H3 to start full-scale operations and accelerate the country's space program.

  • Indonesia hosts the International Motor Show through February 25.  It is one of the largest automobile shows in the world.  Nikkei News reports exhibitors from Japan include Toyota, Honda, Mitsubishi, Nissan and others.  Japanese manufacturers hold a market share of around 80% in Southeast Asia but are struggling to stay in the race to offer electric vehicles. Their South Korean rival Hyundai, which already has an EV plant in Indonesia, as well as China's BYD and Vietnam's VinFast will also show off their cars at the show.

  • Afghanistan celebrates Liberation Day, marking the day Soviet forces left the country in 1989.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China People’s Bank of China 1-Year MLF Announcement

  • Japan GDP (Q4), Capacity Utilization (December), Industrial Production (December)

  • India Passenger Vehicle Sales (January)

  • Australia Employment (January), Consumer Inflation Expectations (February)

  • Indonesia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (January)

  • Philippines Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Kazakhstan Unemployment (Q4)

  • Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (January), Services PMI (January)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB President Christine Lagarde gives an introductory statement at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

  • ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a speech at an online seminar organized by Florence School of Banking and Finance in Florence, Italy.

  • Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Green participates in a fireside chat with Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, Fitch Ratings, In London.

  • Eurozone Balance of Trade (December)

  • UK GDP (Q4), Business Investment (Q4), Goods Trade Balance (December), Manufacturing Production (December), Construction Orders (Q4), Construction Output (December), Industrial Production (December), Labor Productivity (Q4)

  • Spain Inflation (January), CPI (January)

  • Italy Balance of Trade (December)

  • Poland Inflation (January)

  • Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (January), Consumer Confidence (January)

  • Slovakia Inflation (January), CPI (January)

  • Greece Inflation (January)

  • Ireland CPI (January), Inflation (January)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia Inflation (January), Wholesale Prices (January)

  • Turkey FX Reserves (February 9)

  • Israel Inflation (January)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nigeria Inflation (January), Food Inflation (January)

  • South Africa Building Permits (December)

  • Ghana Inflation (January)

 

 

Friday, February 16, 2024

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr gives a speech entitled “Bank Supervision” at the Columbia Law School Banking Conference in New York.

  • San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly to speak before the National Association for Business Economics 40th Annual Economic Policy Conference "Navigating Geopolitical Turbulence and Domestic Uncertainty".

  • US PPI (January), Building Permits (January), Housing Starts (January), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (February), Michigan Consumer Expectations (February), Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (February 16)

  • Canada Wholesale Prices (December)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Singapore's Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Lawrence Wong will present the government's budget for 2024, with some observers expecting new policies aimed at helping people cope with inflation, which has risen sharply over the past year.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China New Yuan Loans (January), M2 Money Supply (January), Outstanding Loan Growth (January), Total Social Financing (January)

  • Japan Tertiary Industry Index (December)

  • South Korea Import and Export Prices (January), Unemployment (January)

  • India Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (January), FX Reserves (February 9)

  • New Zealand Business NZ PMI (January)

  • Singapore Non-Oil Exports (January), Balance of Trade (January)

  • Thailand Full Year GDP (2023)

  • Indonesia Retail Sales (December)

  • Malaysia Current Account (Q4), GDP (Q4)

  • Kazakhstan GDP (Q4), Industrial Production (January), PPI (January), Kazakhstan Business Confidence (Q4)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The 60th Munich Security Conference begins and runs through February 18. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky reportedly will attend. 

  • In the UK, the Welsh Labour leadership contest begins. Separately, Scottish Labour begins its annual conference in Glasgow. Both are significant since Labour, Britain’s main opposition party, hopes to retake a large number of parliamentary seats in Scotland and retain its majority in Wales at the upcoming general election.

 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives the inaugural lecture at the Economic and Monetary Union Laboratory (EMU Lab) at the European University Institute in Florence, Italy.

  • Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill speaks at the NABE Economic Policy Conference in Washington, D.C.

  • Germany Wholesale Prices (January)

  • UK Retail Prices (January), Labor Productivity (Q3)

  • France Inflation (January)

  • Switzerland Industrial Production (Q4)

  • Poland Inflation (January)

  • Slovakia Current Account (December)

  • Belarus Industrial Production (January)

  • Russia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference, Full Year GDP (2023)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Budget Balance (January)

  • Qatar Inflation (January)

  • Egypt Unemployment (Q4)

  • Jordan Inflation (January)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (January)

  • Angola M3 Money Supply (January), FX Reserves (January)

  • Ivory Coast Inflation (January)

 

 

Saturday, February 17, 2024 

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Ethiopia hosts the African Union Heads of State and Government Summit, which opens in Addis Ababa on February 18.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

  

 

Sunday, February 18, 2024

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • The Dominican Republican holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Gambia celebrates Independence Day, marking the date when the country was granted its independence from the UK in 1965.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

Francis Kelly
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