The Global Week Ahead

Written By Francis Kelly

January 28 - February 4, 2024

This coming week, the Gaza War will likely dominate geopolitical attention. Senior intelligence officials from Israel, the US, and Egypt, along with the Qatari Prime Minister, will gather to discuss efforts to reach a deal with Hamas on the release of Israeli hostages. On the table is a possible two-month pause in fighting in return for the hostages. 

 CIA Director Bill Burns, Mossad Director David Barnea, Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel, and Qatari Prime Minister Sheik Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani will meet in a still-undisclosed location in Europe to negotiate all this and perhaps more: Hamas is also demanding a number of Palestinian prisoners be released as part of the deal, many of them reportedly some of the most dangerous and violent terrorists in prison.  The question markets will ask: If an agreement is reached, will it also create at least a temporary suspension of Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea?  

Also this week, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will travel to the US for high-level meetings with senior Biden Administration officials, all four Congressional leaders, give a speech at the conservative think tank, the Heritage Foundation (which has been a critic of continued military aid to Ukraine) all as a part of an effort to unlock the frozen Congressional funding legislation for Ukraine (as well as Israel).

That effort has been tripped up by efforts to find a compromise measure on more significant US border security measures, which, at this point, appear to be dead as House Speaker Michael Johnson (R-LA) sent a letter to colleagues stating what he understood to be the likely points of agreement to small and unworkable. 

Ukraine aid will also be a major issue in the EU this week as there will be a special meeting of the European Council in Brussels to consider a $54 billion financial aid package for the beleaguered country. 

In Latin America this week, two significant events are worth markets watching closely: First, Argentinean President Javier Milei’s massive fiscal reform package will be considered by the Argentinian Congress. Milei is facing enormous push-back from labor unions opposing his plan, with more than 80,000 union members taking to the streets last week in protest. 

The second event is that the US is likely to announce whether they will “snap back” on an agreement (the Barbados Agreement) reached with Venezuela in October 2023 granting a relaxation of US sanctions on the regime in return for allowing free and fair elections. Venezuelan President Nicholás Maduro, while freeing some political opponents from jail, has effectively flaunted the agreement ever since, denying the ability of anyone to run against him in elections, arresting other political opponents, and significantly raising tensions in the region by threatening to invade neighboring Guyana. Reimposing sanctions on Venezuela will likely have a measurable impact on global oil prices. 

Finally, turning back to the US, presidential politics are increasingly going to dominate the focus of markets in the weeks ahead now that the Republican New Hampshire Presidential primary is behind us. All eyes are now turning to South Carolina. Democrats hold their first primary in the Palmetto State this coming Saturday, where President Biden’s victory is assured. Republicans have their primary on February 24th, but there is one Republican primary before it: Nevada on February 8th, where former President Trump is expected to win soundly.  

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, all eyes will be glued to the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee meeting and Fed Chair Jay Powell’s subsequent press conference for the slightest hint of interest rates coming down. The Bank of England is also meeting this week to consider rates.  

Many important economic reports are coming out this week, too.  The US markets will be looking at the US labor market report on Friday and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index on Tuesday. Additionally, the US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement comes out Wednesday (for a great inside look at who and how that is done, this Wall Street Journal profile is fun and informative: “The Most Important Man in Finance You’ve Never Heard Of”).  

Several CPI prints are released in the EU along with Eurozone and German GDP results. In Asia, China’s official CPI and Caixin CPI reports are released, and in Japan, markets will be watching industrial production and consumer confidence report results.  

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, January 28, 2024

 

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  •  Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • China’s month-long Lunar New Year travel season begins this weekend.  An estimated 1.8 billion trips by mass transit and 7 billion trips by car are expected.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Senior US, Israeli, Qatari, and Egyptian officials are expected to meet in Europe(exact location not disclosed) this weekend to discuss ongoing negotiations with Hamas for the release of Israeli hostages. CIA Director William Burns, Mossad Director David Barnea, Egyptian Intelligence Director Abbas Kamel, and Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed Al Thani are expected to attend. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

 

Monday, January 29, 2024

Global

  • The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on ICC Sudan.

  • At the UN, the World Food Programme (WFP) and the Permanent Mission of Germany to the United Nations are organizing a panel discussion titled Strengthening the Resilience of Agricultural Systems and Food Security in the Sahel. 

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will travel to the US for meetings with Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III, as well as U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. On January 30, he will meet with the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Mike Johnson, Democratic Leader of the House, Hakeem Jeffries, Republican Leader of the Senate, Mitch McConnell, as well as other Democratic and Republican Representatives and Senators.  Then on January 30, he will deliver a speech at the Heritage Foundation. On the same day, he will also travel to Troy, Alabama, and visit the Missiles and Fire Control Facility of Lockheed Martin. He will wrap up his visit to the US on February 1 when he goes to Tampa, Florida, to visit the headquarters of the US Special Operations Command.

  • Colombia’s latest six-month cease-fire with the Marxist insurgent National Liberation Army group is set to expire.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (January)

  • Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (December), Nominal Budget Balance (December), BCB Focus Market Readout

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Vietnam Balance of Trade (January), Industrial Production (January), Inflation (January), Retail Sales (January), Tourist Arrivals (January)

  • Singapore Monetary Policy Statement, Export & Import Prices (December), PPI (December)

  • Thailand New Car Sales (December)

  • Pakistan Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The 15th meeting of the Accession Conference with Montenegro will be held in Brussels.  The intergovernmental conference will provide a forum for political dialogue between the EU member states and Montenegro on the country’s reforms, take stock of the overall accession process, and provide political steer for future work. The focus of the meeting is expected to be on the key reforms that would allow Montenegro to make further progress in its accession process.

  • Georgia's ruling party will hold its first meeting with the parliamentary opposition on implementing the European Commission's requirements to begin EU membership negotiations.

  • The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  On the agenda is a discussion of the defense of democracy and the annual rule of law dialogue.

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel M1 Money Supply (December)

  • Qatar GDP (Q3), Balance of Trade (December)

  • Kuwait M2 Money Supply (December), Private Bank Lending (December)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (January)

  

 

Tuesday, January 30, 2024 

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Argentina's lower house of Congress will vote on President Javier Milei's omnibus reforms.  The massive reform package is facing widespread opposition from unions and Milei’s political opponents. 

  • The US State Department is expected to reveal whether the US will reimpose sanctions on Venezuela for failing to comply with the terms of an agreement that allowed the relaxation of US sanctions on the country in return for free and fair elections – something Venezuelan President Maduro effectively flaunted within days of the agreement, denying opposition candidates the opportunity to run.

  • The EU-U.S. Trade and Technology Council summit will take place at the U.S. State Department in Washington, D.C.   they are expected to discuss discussions around sustainable trade and artificial intelligence, among other issues.

  • US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo will join Margrethe Vestager, Executive Vice President of the European Commission for Europe, to discuss US-EU trade and technology policy at the Atlantic Council in Washington, D.C.  

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Redbook (January 27), S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index (November), JOLTs Job Openings (December), the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence (January), Dallas Fed Services Index (January), Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (January)

  • Brazil IGP-M Inflation (January)

  • Mexico GDP (Q4), Fiscal Balance (December)

  • Chile Unemployment (December)

  • El Salvador Balance of Trade (December)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan Unemployment (December)

  • Australia Retail Sales (December)

  • Philippines PPI (December)

  • Taiwan Consumer Confidence (January)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane gives opening remarks at a conference entitled 'A year with the euro in Croatia' organized by Hrvatska narodna banka in Zagreb, Croatia.

  • ECB Board Member Anneli Tuomine participates in a webinar organized by European Banking Institute on book launch: "Artificial Intelligence and Market Abuse".

  • Eurozone GDP (Q4), Economic Sentiment (January), Consumer Confidence (January), Consumer Inflation Expectations (January), Industrial Sentiment (January), Selling Price Expectations (January), Services Sentiment (January)

  • Germany GDP (Q4)

  • UK BoE Consumer Credit (December), Mortgage Approvals & Lending (December)

  • Ireland GDP (Q4), Wholesale Prices (December)

  • Greece PPI (December)

  • Italy PPI (December)

  • France GDP (Q4), Household Consumption (December)

  • Switzerland Balance of Trade (December), KOF Leading Indicators (January)

  • Spain GDP (Q4), Inflation (January), Business Confidence (January)

  • Hungary Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November), M3 Money Supply (December), Private Bank Lending (December)

  • Turkey Economic Confidence Index (January)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Zambia M3 Money Supply (December), Private Sector Credit (December), Budget Balance (December)

 

 

Wednesday, January 31, 2024

Global

  • the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the 2140 Committee and another briefing on ICC Libya.

  •  The UN Committee on the Exercise of the Inalienable Rights of the Palestinian People will convene the first Committee Meeting of the year. At this meeting, the UN Secretary–General, António Guterres, will preside over the Bureau elections, and the Committee will adopt its Programme of Work for 2024. The Permanent Representative of South Africa and the Director of the UNRWA Representative office in New York are expected to brief.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Interest Rate Decision and press conference.

  • US MBA Mortgage Market Index (January 28), ADP Employment Change (January), Treasury Refunding Announcement, Chicago PMI (January), EIA Crude Oil Stocks (January 26)

  • Canada GDP (November & December)

  • Brazil Unemployment (December), Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Net Payrolls (December)

  • Chile Copper Production (December), Industrial Production (December), Manufacturing Production (December), Retail Sales (December), Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Uruguay Balance of Trade (December)

  • Colombia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Unemployment (December), Cement Production (December)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • In Thailand, the Constitutional Court will rule whether opposition lawmaker Pita Limjaroenrat and his Move Forward Party conspired to overthrow Thailand's system of constitutional monarchy through its signature policy of amending laws that criminalize royal insult.

  • Today is Nauru Independence Day, marking when the nation declared independence in 1968.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China NBS Manufacturing PMI (January), NBS General PMI (January)

  • Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions released, Industrial Production (December), Retail Sales (December), Consumer Confidence (January), Housing Starts (December), Construction Orders (December)

  • India Government Budget Value, Infrastructure Output (December)

  • South Korea Industrial Production (December), Retail Sales (December)

  • Australia Inflation (Q4), Housing Credit (December), CPI (Q4), Private Sector Credit (December)

  • Taiwan GDP (Q4)

  • Hong Kong GDP (Q4)

  • Philippines Full Year GDP (2023), GDP (Q4)

  • Singapore Bank Lending (December), Unemployment (Q4), Business Confidence (Q4)

  • Thailand Industrial Production (December), Current Account (December), Private Consumption (December), Private Investment (December)

  • Sri Lanka Inflation (January)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB Bank Lending Survey

  • Germany Retail Sales (December), Import Prices (December), Unemployment (January), Inflation (January)

  • France Inflation (January), PPI (December)

  • Italy Unemployment (December), Industrial Production (November)

  • Ireland Inflation (January)

  • Spain Retail Sales (December), Current Account (November)

  • Hungary PPI (December)

  • Switzerland Retail Sales (December), Economic Sentiment Index (January)

  • Poland Full Year GDP (2023)

  • Greece Retail Sales (November)

  • Ukraine Current Account

  • Russia Industrial Production (December), M2 Money Supply (December)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia GDP (Q4)

  • Turkey Imports/Exports (December), Tourist Revenues (Q4), Tourist Arrivals (December)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nigeria FX Reserves (January)

  • South Africa Balance of Trade (December)

  • Mozambique Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Thursday, February 1, 2024

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • In Cuba, a significant increase in the price of gasoline goes into effect.  As the Center for Strategic and International Studies reported this past week, Cuba has faced a steep decline in tourism revenue following the Covid-19 pandemic, exacerbated by high global fuel prices caused by the war in Ukraine, which have contributed to years of chronic fuel shortages, resulting in frequent blackouts and long queues at gasoline pumps in what analysts have described as “the worst financial position it has been in since the collapse of the Soviet Union.” Starting in February, the regime announced that gasoline prices would increase by over 500 percent due to the government’s inability to continue sales at current subsidized prices.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Challenger Job Cuts (January), Initial Job Cuts (January), S&P Manufacturing PMI (January), ISM Manufacturing PMI (January), Construction Spending (December), ISM Manufacturing New Orders (January), ISM Manufacturing Prices (January), EIA Natural Gas Stocks (January 26)

  • Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

  • Brazil PPI (December), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January), Balance of Trade (January)

  • Mexico Business Confidence (January), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

  • Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (December)

  • Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (January)

  • Argentina Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Tax Revenues (January)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Taiwan's legislature, which is effectively a hung parliament between three parties, will open its spring session and meet to select the president and vice president of the legislature.  In the elections, the Kuomintang (KMT) won 52 seats, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) secured 51, and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) won eight.

  • Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is set to present an interim national budget just before the country's general election in April-May.

  • Today is Federal Territory Day in Malaysia, marking the day Kuala Lumpur was transferred from the state of Selangor to the Federal Government.  Financial Markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (January)

  • Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (January)

  • India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (January)

  • Hong Kong Retail Sales (December)

  • South Kora Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (January)

  • Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (January), Building Permits (December), Import & Export Prices (Q4), Private House Approvals (December), CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (January), Commodity Prices (January)

  • Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January), Indonesia Inflation (January), Tourist Arrivals (December)

  • Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

  • Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

  • Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

  • Pakistan Consumer Confidence (December & January), Balance of Trade (January), Inflation (January), Wholesale Prices (January)

  • Sri Lanka Balance of Trade (December)

  • Kazakhstan Current Account (Q4), Tengri Partners Manufacturing PMI (January), Inflation (January)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane gives remarks at an event organized by Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF) in Rome, Italy.

  • Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January), Inflation (January), Unemployment Rate (December), CPI (January)

  • Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January)

  • France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January)

  • Bank of England Interest Rate Decision and Meeting Minutes, UK Nationwide Housing Prices (January), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January), Labor Productivity (Q3)

  • Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January)m Inflation (January)

  • Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (January)

  • Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

  • Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January), New Car Sales (January)

  • Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January), Unemployment (December)

  • Switzerland procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (January)

  • Romania Unemployment (December)

  • Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (January)

  • Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

  

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Egypt Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, M2 Money Supply (December), Overnight Lending Rights

  • Turkey MPC Meeting Summary, Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (January), FX Reserves (January 26)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (January)

  • South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (January), Total New Vehicle Sales (January) 

Friday, February 2, 2024

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • It’s Groundhog Day!  Will Punxsutawney Phil see his shadow, predicting six more weeks of winter?

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Non-Farm Payrolls (January), Participation Rate (January), Factory Orders (December), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (January), Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (January), Michigan Current Conditions (January), Baker-Hughes Oil Rig Count (February 2), Total Vehicle Sales (January)

  • Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (January), Industrial Production (December)

  • Mexico FX Reserves (December)

  • Paraguay Inflation (January)

  • Costa Rica Unemployment (Q4)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • India FX Reserves (January 26)

  • South Kora Inflation (January), CPI (January)

  • Australia Home Loans (January), Investment Lending for Homes (December), PPI (Q4)

  • Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The EU-ASEAN Ministerial meeting will take place in Brussels. 

  • There will be an informal meeting of EU Foreign Affairs Ministers in Brussels.

  • The German Bundestag is expected to finalize a new budget in the wake of an unexpected ruling from the German Constitutional Court last November, forcing a massive rewrite and brief fiscal crisis for the country.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

  • France Industrial Production (December), Budget Balance (December), New Car Registrations (January)

  • Spain Unemployment (January), Tourist Arrivals (December)

  • Switzerland Consumer Confidence (Q1)

  • Romania PPI (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Imports/Exports/ Balance of Trade (January),  Auto Sales (January)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

 

Saturday, February 3, 2024

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • The Democratic Party holds its first presidential primary in South Carolina.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

 

Sunday, February 4, 2024

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • El Salvador holds presidential and legislative Elections. Current President Nayib Bukele and Vice President Felix Ulloa are expected to be re-elected.

  • Facebook turns 20 years old today.

  • Costa Rica holds municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is National Day in Sri Lanka, celebrating the island nation’s independence from Great Britain in 1972.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is Angola Independence Day, celebrating when the nation gained independence from Portugal in 1975.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

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Francis Kelly
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