The Global Week Ahead: January 29 - February 5, 2023
This will be a hectic and important week worldwide, politically and economically. In particular, we are watching closely as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken travels to Israel, Egypt, and the West Bank in the wake of heightened violence between Israel and Palestinians and a reported Israeli drone strike Sunday on an Iranian military base in Iran. He then travels to Beijing, where he is expected to warn China against aiding Russia via Chinese companies reportedly supporting the war effort.
While Blinken is in the Middle East, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin will be in Japan and South Korea to discuss regional security issues and tensions with China and North Korea. Austin will then travel to the Philippines, where he is expected to discuss launching joint naval patrols in the West Philippine Sea with the Philippine Navy in response to increased Chinese Naval activity. Austin will follow NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, who will also visit Japan and South Korea for meetings with senior defense officials.
It is a big week for global markets as the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England make interest rate decisions this week. Additionally, a flood of economic data is being reported globally this week – including a revised IMF Global Economic Outlook – which markets will have to digest.
Here is what we are watching around the world this week:
Sunday, January 29, 2023:
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· US Secretary of State Antony Blinken travels to Israel, Egypt, and the West Bank. The visit comes at a time of renewed tensions and violence between Israelis and Palestinians. This past week, Israeli commandos killed seven gunmen and two civilians in the West Bank. This is the first visit by Blinken to Israel since Benjamin Netanyahu’s return to power after the November elections. It is expected Blinken will seek to discuss with Netanyahu upholding the status quo around the Temple Mount as well as Iran, and the Ukrainian War. Blinken is also scheduled to meet with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abass. In Egypt, he will meet with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi to discuss mutual support for the election in Libya and the formation of talks to form a civilian government in Sudan following a military coup in 2021.
· US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin visits the Philippines through January 30th to meet with his counterpart, Defense Secretary Carlito Galvez, Jr. There have been discussions of the US and Philippines conducting joint naval patrols in the West Philippine Sea in response to heightened Chinese activity in the area.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg begins a four-day visit to South Korea and Japan. He will meet with South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin and Defense Minister Lee Jong-Sup. South Korea has been stepping up cooperation with NATO recently as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol attended the NATO Summit this past June, the first South Korean leader to take part in a NATO Summit. In Japan, he will meet with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and other senior officials to discuss strengthening NATO cooperation with Japan. Prime Minister Kishida recently announced Japan’s intention to increase defense spending to more than 2 percent of GDP, in line with NATO member countries that are required to give in support of NATO.
· Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari will visit Moscow for bilateral meetings with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
· UN General Assembly President Csaba Korosi will be in India for meetings with Indian External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar. India is the current president of the G20, and Korosi, who was elected the UNGA President in September, will seek to discuss a variety of regional and global issues as well as sustainability-related issues.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Vietnam CPI (January), Industrial Output (January), Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (January)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Development Minister Svenja Schulze will travel to Argentina, Chile, and Brazil. Scholz will commemorate the Argentine military dictatorship and participate in the German-Chilean economic forum and visit a Brazilian national park.. Schulze will hold meetings in Brazil on how to better protect the rainforest as well as discuss other critical environmental and climate protection issues.
· Austria holds regional elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Qatar Balance of Trade (December)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Monday, January 30, 2023:
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP). They are also scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia.
· U.N. General Assembly President Csaba Korosi will visit China, where he will discuss the Assembly's Sustainable Development Goals, directly following his visit to India.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will meet with South Korean Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup following Jong-sup’s meeting with NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg. Austin will meet at the Joint Security Area – the border with North Korea – the first time a US Defense Secretary has met with his South Korean counterpart there since 2017. It comes as North Korea continues to bolster its nuclear weapons program. Additionally, South Korea is increasingly becoming a larger supplier of weapons to NATO and recently delivered 10 K2 tanks and 24 self-propelled K9 howitzers to Poland as part of an almost $6 billion agreement with Hundai Rotem and Hanwha Defense Systems Corporation.
· Both the US Senate and House of Representatives are in session this week. Senate Republicans will finalize Republican committee assignments, allowing committees to move forward with hearings and other official business.
· Peru is bracing for a strike by farmers in the wake of deadly riots following the ousting and arrest after he tried to dissolve the Congress.
· Former President Trump advisor Peter Navarro goes on trial for failing to comply with a subpoena from the House January 6th Committee investigating the January 6, 2021 attack on the US Capitol.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (January),
· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, Nominal Budget Balance (December)
· Mexico Fiscal Balance (December)
· Chile Unemployment Rate (December)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· India observes Martyrs’ Day, commemorating the death of Mahatma Gandhi, who was assassinated in 1948.
· New Zealand observes Northland Anniversary Day, a public holiday commemorating the arrival of William Hobson, a British Royal Navy Officer and first Governor of New Zealand.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Sri Lanka Inflation (January)
· Pakistan Consumer Confidence (January)
· Malaysia PPI (December)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meet. They will receive a presentation by the Swedish presidency on its work program for the semester, and exchange views on the current market situation, particularly in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the need for a strategic approach for the EU’s agri-food sector in light of the war in Ukraine, as well as the impact of agricultural imports from Ukraine on EU markets.
· In the UK, workers at the Drivers and Vehicle Standards Agency will go on strike over pay.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Eurozone Economic Sentiment (January), Industrial Sentiment (January), Selling Price Expectations (January), Services Sentiment (January), Consumer Confidence (January), Inflation Expectations (January)
· Spain Inflation (January), Retail Sales (December), Business Confidence (January)
· Italy PPI (December)
· Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (January)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Turkey’s coalition of six opposition parties – known as “The Table of Six” – will meet to announce a common policy platform for their yet-to-be-named presidential candidate (who they are expected to name in February). Elections are set for May 14th for both the Turkish presidency and the Turkish parliament.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Turkey Economic Confidence Index (January)
· Saudi Arabia Private Bank Lending (December), M3 Money Supply (December)
· Kuwait Private Bank Lending (December), M2 Money Supply (December)
· Oman Budget Balance (November)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· In South Africa, the trial of former President Jacob Zuma for corruption resumes in Johannesburg.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Ghana Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
· Kenya Interest Rate Decision
Tuesday, January 31, 2023:
Global
· An updated IMF Economic Outlook will be released. The previous Outlook update in October 2022 downgraded GDP growth expectations to 2.7 percent from 2.9 percent.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· The US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee begins two days of meetings to discuss a possible rate increase.
· US Employment Cost (Q4), Redbook (January), S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (November), House Price Index (November), Chicago PMI (January), CB Consumer Confidence (January), Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (January),
· Canada GDP (November)
· Mexico GDP (Q4)
· Colombia Monetary Policy Minutes, Cement Production (December), Unemployment (December), Exports (December)
· Chile Copper Production (December), Manufacturing Production (December), Industrial Production (December), Retail Sales (December)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· The Indian government will present its final full-year 2023 budget. This comes in advance of the 2024 elections, which makes this budget proposal a tough balancing act between populist measures and fiscal cut-backs for Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
· An IMF team will visit Pakistan through February 9th to discuss conditions of a financial assistance package.
· Nauru celebrates Independence Day, commemorating the day the Micronesia island nation became independent in 1968.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China NBS Manufacturing PMI (January), NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (January), NBS General PMI (January), Industrial Profits (December)
· India Government Budget Value (December), Infrastructure Output (December)
· South Korea Industrial Policy (December), Retail Sales (December)
· Japan Unemployment Rate (December), Industrial Production (December), Retail Sales (December), Consumer Confidence (January), Housing Starts (December), Construction Orders (December)
· Australia Retail Sales (December), Housing Credit (December), Private Sector Credit (December)
· Taiwan M2 Money Supply (December), Export Orders (December),
· Thailand Coincident Index (December), Retail Sales (November), Industrial Production (December)
· Singapore Bank Lending (December), Unemployment Rate (Q4), Business Confidence (Q4)
· Malaysia M3 Money Supply (December)
· Thailand Private Investment (December), Private Consumption (December), Current Account (December)
· Philippines PPI (December)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· France is bracing for nationwide protests led by the main trade unions in opposition to the ongoing parliamentary efforts led by President Emmanuel Macron to reform the pension system. The reform would, among other things, raise the retirement age from 62 to 64 or face monthly payouts being curtailed, as well as streamline the 42 different state-supported pension systems. Overall, the entire French pension system costs the government just under 14 percent of GDP. The strikes have become more intense in recent weeks. Last week, energy workers who are part of the CGT union cut electricity to President Macron’s supporters and wealthy neighborhoods while giving discounted power and gas to poorer customers.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Eurozone GDP (Q4)
· France GDP (Q4), Household Consumption (December), Inflation (January), PPI (December)
· Germany Inflation (January), Retail Sales (December), Unemployment Figures (January), GDP (Q4)
· Italy GDP (Q4), Unemployment (December)
· Spain Current Account (November)
· UK BoE Consumer Credit (December), Mortgage Approvals & Lending (December), Net Lending to Individuals (December)
· Switzerland Retail Sales (December)
· Ukraine Current Account (December)
· Russia M2 Money Supply (December)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia GDP (Q4)
· Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December), Tourism Revenues (Q4)
· Iran Inflation (January)
· Egypt M2 Money Supply (December)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Pope Francis is scheduled to visit the Democratic Republic of the Congo and South Sudan. He will be accompanied by the Archbishop of Canterbury, Justin Welby, and the Moderate of the Presbyterian Church of Scotland, Iain Greenshields.
· Ghana has extended to today the deadline for bondholder exchange as part of a debt restructuring. If there is less than an 80 percent participation rate in the exchange, the government may have to extend the deadline again, which will further delay IMF aid.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa M3 Money Supply (December), Private Sector Credit (December), Balance of Trade (December)
· Kenya Inflation (January), Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
· Nigeria FX Reserves (January)
Wednesday, February 1, 2023:
Global
· OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting will be held virtually. It is expected they will not change the group’s current oil output policy.
· Malta will take the presidency of the UN Security Council for the month of February.
· the Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF), and the World Health Organization (WHO) will launch a Global Alliance to End AIDS in Children Africa in Geneva, Switzerland.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Interest Rate Decision; Fed Chair Jay Powell Press Conference.
· US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate/Mortgage Applications/Market Index (January), ADP Employment Change (January), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January), ISM Manufacturing PMI (January), ISM Manufacturing Employment (January), JOLTs Report (December), Construction Spending (December), ISM Manufacturing New Orders (January), Total Vehicle Sales (January)
· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)
· Brazil Central Bank Interest Decision PPI (December), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January), Balance of Trade (January),
· Mexico Business Confidence (January), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)
· Argentina Tax Revenues (January)
· Peru Inflation (January)
· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (January)
· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (December)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· The 22nd OECD-Asia Development Bank Roundtable on Capital Market and Financial Reform in Asia is held in Tokyo, Japan. Leading regional regulators are expected to attend.
· Malaysia celebrates Federal Territory Day, a public holiday marking he day in 1974 Kuala Lumpur became a Federal Territory.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China Caixan Manufacturing PMI (January)
· India S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January), Union Budget 2023-2024
· South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (January), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)
· Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (January)
· Hong Kong GDP (Q4)
· Taiwan Retail Sales (December), Industrial Production (December), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)
· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)
·
· Australia Ai Group Manufacturing Index (January), Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (January), CoreLogic Dwelling Rate (January), Commodity Prices (January)
· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January), Inflation (January), Tourist Arrivals (December)
· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)
· Sri Lanka Balance of Trade (December)
· Pakistan Inflation Rate (January), Wholesale Prices (January)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· France will be hit by a nationwide strike by civil servants opposing pension reform efforts.
· In the UK, the Trades Union Congress holds “protect the right to strike” day of action in protest at the Strikes (Minimum Service Levels) Bill. This could result in the single largest one-day strike – over 100,000 civil servants - occurring in England in decades.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January), Unemployment Rate (December) Inflation (January), CPI (January)
· UK National wide Housing Prices (January), S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (January)
· Italy S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January), Inflation (January), CPI (January)
· Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)
· France S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)
· Spain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January), New Car Sales (January)
· Switzerland procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (January)
· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)
· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January), Industrial Production (December)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (January)
· Egypt Current Account (Q3)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (January), Total New Vehicles (January)
· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (January)
· Angola FX Reserves (January)
Thursday, February 2, 2023:
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· US Treasury Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson will travel to Oman, the UAE, and Turkey to reiterate that Washington will aggressively enforce sanctions on Russia. The meetings come among reports that various businesses located in these countries are skirting sanctions to do business with Russia.
· It’s Groundhog Day in the United States. Let’s hope Punxsutawney Phil doesn’t see his shadow, or it’s another six weeks of winter.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US Challenger Job Cuts (January), Jobless Claims (January 28), Unit Labor Costs (Q4), Factory Orders (December)=
· Canada Building Permits (December)
· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (January)
· Mexico FX Reserves (December)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea Inflation (January), CPI (January)
· Australia Building Permits (December), Private House Approvals (December)
· Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (January)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB Interest Rate Decision, ECB Press Conference, Release of the “ECB Podcast: President Lagarde presents the latest monetary policy decisions”
· ECB President Christine Lagarde gives the opening keynote speech Christine Lagarde
at the awards ceremony of the Franco-German Business Awards 2023 on the occasion of the 60th anniversary of the Traité de l'Elysée in Paris, France.
· Germany Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December)
· France Budget Balance (December), New Car Registrations (January)
· UK Bank of England Interest Rate Decision, MPC Meeting Minutes, Bank of England Monetary Policy Report.
· Spain Unemployment (January), Tourist Arrivals (December),
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Turkey FX Reserves (January), Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (January)
· Egypt Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Friday, February 3, 2023:
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· President Biden and Vice President Harris will travel to Philadelphia, Pennsylvania to attend the Democratic National Committee’s winter meeting. It is also in advance of President Biden’s State of the Union address on February 7th and it is expected the President’s speech in Philadelphia will likely be a preview of what he will call for in the State of the Union (and themes we will likely hear from him on the re-election campaign trail in 2024)
Economic Reports/Events –
· US Unemployment Rate (January), Non-Farm Payrolls (January), Participation Rate (January), Average Hourly Earnings (January), Manufacturing Payrolls (January), S&P Global Services PMI (January), S&P Global Composite PMI (January), ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (January), ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (January), ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (January), ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity (January), ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (January)
· Brazil industrial Production (December), Consumer Confidence (January), S&P Global Services PMI (January), S&P Global Composite PMI (January)
· Mexico Consumer Confidence (January)
· Colombia PPI (January)
· Uruguay Inflation (January)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· The Eurasian Economic Union's prime ministers will hold a meeting in Almaty, Kazakhstan.
· Japan implements new controls on exports to Russia of vaccines, medical equipment, robots, and other technology.
· ASEAN Foreign Ministers will meet in Jakarta, Indonesia, through Saturday. Among the agenda items will be a discussion of the situation in Myanmar, which marked the 2nd anniversary of the coup ousting President Aung San Suu Kyi and installing a military dictatorship.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China Caixin Composite & Services PMIs (January)
· Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI (January), Jibun Bank Composite PMI (January)
· India S&P Global Services PMI (January), S&P Global Composite PMI (January), FX Reserves (January 27)
· South Korea FX Reserves (January)
· Singapore S&P Global PMI (January), Retail Sales (December)
· Australia Ai Group Construction Index (January), Home Loans (December), Investment Lending for Homes (December)
· Hong Kong FX Reserves (January), S&P Global PMI (January)
· Taiwan FX Reserves (January)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The EU-Ukraine Summit will be held in Kyiv, Ukraine and hosted by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. European Commission President Ursula von Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel are scheduled to attend.
· The UK’s RMT and Aslef unions (representing railways and train drivers) go on strike over pay and work conditions.
· Also in the UK, the PCS union (which represents legal advisors and court associates) are expected to go on strike in England and Wales.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB Board Member Frank Elderson gives a virtual speech at ECB Industry Outreach event on Climate-related and Environmental Risk.
· Eurozone S&P Global Services PMI (January), S&P Global Composite PMI (January), PPI (December)
· Germany S&P Global Services PMI (January), S&P Global Composite PMI (January)
· UK S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI (January), S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI (January)
· France Industrial Production (December), S&P Global Services PMI (January), S&P Global Composite PMI (January)
· Spain S&P Global Services PMI (January), S&P Global Composite PMI (January)
· Italy S&P Global Services PMI (January), S&P Global Composite PMI (January)
· Ukraine GDP (Q4)
· Russia S&P Global Services PMI (January), S&P Global Composite PMI (January)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Turkey Inflation (January), PPI (January), CPI (January)
· Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (January)
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
· Mozambique celebrates Heroes Day, a national holiday honoring those who laid down their lives for the cause of independence.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa S&P Global PMI (January)
· Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (January)
· Ghana PMI (January)
· Uganda PMI (January)
· Zambia PMI (January
Saturday, February 4, 2023:
Global
· World Cancer Day is observed.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Colombia Inflation (January)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Sri Lanka celebrates National Day, a public holiday marking the date when the country gained independence from Great Britain in 1972.
· The Sapporo Snow Festival will be held in Hokkaido, Japan, for the first time in two years due to COVID. The event is famous for its massive and ornate snow and ice sculptures. It runs through February 11th.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Australia Judo Bank Services PMI (January), Judo Bank Composite PMI (January)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Germany New Car Registrations (January)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (January)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Angola celebrates Liberation Day, marking the day militants attacked a police patrol car and assaulted the Civil Jail of So Paulo, as well as the Military Detection House and police barracks, in an attempt to release political prisoners held captive there.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Sunday, February 5, 2023:
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· US Secretary of State Antony Blinken travels to Beijing for meetings with Foreign Minister Qin Gang to discuss a host of issues, including China’s alleged support for the Russian war effort.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Japan’s opposition Innovation Party to hold a convention in Osaka.
· Japan’s Aichi Prefecture holds gubernatorial elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Cyprus holds the first round of presidential elections. A run-off vote will be held on February 12th (if needed).
· The EU ban on Russian oil products takes effect.
· The Republic of San Marino celebrates Liberation Day, a public holiday observing the day of liberation from Abelonian occupation in 1740. It is also the celebration of St. Agatha, the patron saint of San Marino.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
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