The Global Week Ahead: November 20 - 27, 2022

Looking at the geopolitical calendar this week, it will be relatively quiet (it should be after all those international summits last week).  We are watching two significant actions this week: The G7 states are expected to announce a ceiling price on purchases of Russian oil for their price cap mechanism that begins on December 5th.   While governments and markets have been anticipating this for several months, it may significantly impact Russia's economy and its ability to fund the War on Ukraine.  Also, this week the European Parliament is likely to pass a resolution naming Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism. 

The global economic reporting calendar is relatively quiet this week, in part because the US will quickly slide into an extended Thanksgiving holiday.  But we will be watching the Federal Open Market Committee minutes which will be released on Wednesday, and South Korea, South Africa, and Turkey will decide interest rates.  Turkey is likely to be an outlier among the world's central banks as it is expected to cut rates by 15 basis points.   And the OECD will be providing an update on their global economic outlook forecasts on Tuesday.

Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, November 20, 2022

Global

·       The World Cup begins in Doha, Qatar, and runs through December 18. 

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       The Inter-American Development Bank is expected to choose a new president.  The previous president, Mauricio Claver-Carone, was fired in September for having an inappropriate relationship with a subordinate and rewarding her with large pay raises.

·       US President Biden celebrates his 80th birthday.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

·       Kazakhstan holds snap presidential elections (two years earlier than expected).

·       Nepal holds national and provincial elections. It is the fourth election ever held since the abolition of the monarchy. But political instability has led to 13 different governments in the past 16 years.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

·       London’s “Big Ben” will ring its bells for the first since 2017. 

·       It will ring once at 11 a.m. to mark a two-minute moment of silence for those lost in World War I&II.  

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in a formal dinner of the European Round Table for Industry in Paris.

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

·       Equatorial Guinea holds presidential, legislative, and local elections. 

·       The leaders of Francophone African countries will gather for the Francophonie Summit in Djerba, Tunisia.  French President Emmanuel Macron will attend.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, November 21, 2022:

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (Da’esh), Al-Qaida, and associated individuals, groups, undertakings, and entities.

·       The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) is expected to release its Near East and North Africa - Regional Overview of Food Security and Nutrition report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Vice President Kamala Harris arrives in the Philippines.  She will meet with President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. in Manila.  And then tomorrow, travel to the Province of the Palawan Island to be briefed on the disputed South China Sea, where China has reclaimed and militarized islands to assert territorial control over the area.  Harris had a brief impromptu sideline meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Cambodia this past week during the ASEAN Summit.  Her visit to Palawan could raise tensions further with China as she is the highest-ranking US official to tour the island and its close proximity to the disputed Spratly Islands.

·       President Biden hosts the traditional pardoning of the Thanksgiving Turkey at the White House.

·       The US Congress is out of session this week for the Thanksgiving holiday.

·       Chile’s trucking union to go on strike in the northern portion of the country over increasing security concerns.  Chile has seen a significant uptick in cargo theft and assaults on drivers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly gives the keynote speech at the Orange County Business Council.

·       US Chicago Fed National Activity Report (October)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate (1Y), Loan Prime Rate (November)

·       Thailand GDP (Q3)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (October), Current Account (Q3), Inflation Rate (October)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Italian government is set to approve a draft budget law for 2023, the first for new Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meet in Brussels.

·       EU President Ursala von der Leyen meets with Roberta Metsola, President of the European Parliament, to discuss ongoing issues.  She then meets with Mr. Manfred Weber, Ms. Iratxe García-Pérez, and Mr. Stéphane Séjourné, Chairs of the European People’s Party Group, the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats and the Renew Europe Groups in the European Parliament

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz gives a speech on the state of Germany’s economy at the Sueddeutsche Zeitung Economic Summit in Berlin.

·       Berlin’s famous Weihnachtsmärkte (Christmas Markets) open across the city.

·       The UK’s CBI (Confederation of British Industry) Annual Conference begins in Birmingham.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo gives remarks at a conference "La proposition de directive bancaire CRDVI et les relations Afrique – Europe" organized by A. Gauvin & Raji Avocats in Paris.

·       Germany PPIs (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Unemployment Figures (October)

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·      Kenya hosts the Democratic Republic of Congo Peace Talks in Nairobi.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is expected to announce Malawi to be the first low-income country to receive funding through its food-shock window.

Tuesday, November 22, 2022:

Global

·       The OECD releases its Economic Outlook.

·       The UN Security Council meets to discuss piracy in the Gulf of Guinea. The Gulf has become the leading region for global kidnappings at sea, accounting for 90 percent of the world total.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Vice President Kamala Harris to visit the Philippines’ Palawan Province to discuss maritime operations in the South China Sea.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Loretta Mester gives opening remarks at the Bank’s “Wages and Inflation” Conference.

·       US Redbook (November), Richmond Fed Services Index (November), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (November)

·       Canadian Central Bank Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers does a fireside chat at the Young Canadians in Finance Conference in Ottawa.  She will give an assessment of the risks to the stability of the Canadian financial system.
Ottawa, Ontario

·       Canada Retail Sales (September), Wholesale Sales (September), New Housing Price Index (October)

·       Mexico Retail Sales (September)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (October)

·       Peru GDP(Q3)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The ASEAN Defense Ministers meet in Siem Reap, Cambodia. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, along with his counterparts from Japan and China, have also been invited to attend. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Australia Central Bank Governor Lowe speech.

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU General Affairs Council (Cohesion) meets.

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet with Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel in Moscow.  While there, both leaders will participate in the unveiling of a statue honoring late Cuban revolutionary dictator Fidel Castro. 

·       King Charles III hosts South African President Cyril Ramaphosa for a state visit.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (October)

·       Eurozone Current Account (September), Consumer Confidence Flash (November)

·       Poland Employment Growth (October), PPIs (October), Corporate Sector Wages (October)

·       Italy Current Account (September)

·       Ukraine Retail Sales (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Qatar Total Credit Growth (October), Money Supply (October)

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Multiple South African Unions representing more than one million workers – including the civil servants union – will go on strike over wages.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (September)

·       Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, November 23, 2022: 

Global

·       The G7 states are expected to announce a ceiling price on purchases of Russian oil for their price cap mechanism that begins on December 5th.  Here is a brief explanation of how the cap will likely work.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US FMOC Minutes released, MBA Mortgage Data (30-year rate, mortgage refinancing’s, purchase index), Building Permits (October), Durable Goods Orders (October), Initial Jobless Claims, S&P Global Manufacturing/Composite/Services PMI reports (November), New Home Sales (October), Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Expectations (November)

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers appear before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance in Ottawa.

·       Argentina Economic Activity (September)

·       Panama IMAE Economic Activity (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (November)

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs (November)

·       Indonesia M2 Supply (October)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (October)

·       Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

·       Singapore GDP (Q3), CPI (October)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (October), Retail Sales (October)

·       New Zealand monetary policy announcement.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Parliament will likely vote today on resolutions naming Russia a state sponsor of terrorism.

·       The European Parliament is expected to approve a new strategy for enlarging the bloc.  This is likely to lead to the EU formally considering Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia becoming members of the EU.

·       The UK’s Supreme Court is expected to issue a ruling on whether the Scottish Parliament has the power to pass a referendum bill without the British Parliament’s approval. The Scottish Parliament is attempting to legislate approval of a second referendum on Scottish independence.  

·       Armenia will host the heads of state summit of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).   Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to attend, where discussions around international and regional security will be held.   Putin has been attempting to negotiate a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan and he may attempt to advance negotiations with sideline talks with the leaders of the two countries.

·       The EU’s European Economic Area Council meets to discuss mutual economic issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Luis de  Guindos gives the opening speech at the XXIX Encuentro del Sector Financiero "Retos y oportunidades de un sector en transformación" organized by Deloitte in Madrid, Spain. 

·       ECB Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo participates on a panel "El rol del consejo en la transformación" at XXIX Encuentro del Sector Financiero "Retos y oportunidades de un sector en transformación" organised by Deloitte in Madrid, Spain. 

·       Germany S&P Global Manufacturing/Composite/Services PMI reports (November)

·       France S&P Global Manufacturing/Composite/Services PMI reports (November)

·       Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing/Composite/Services PMI reports (November)

·       UK S&P/CIPS Global Manufacturing/Composite/Services PMI reports (November)

·       Poland Retail Sales (October)

·       Russia PPIs (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (October)

·       Zambia Interest Rate Decision (October)

·       Nigeria Interest Rate Decision (October)

Thursday, November 24, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US celebrates Thanksgiving, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Average Weekly Earnings (September)

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (November), IPCA Mid-Month CPI (November), Federal Tax Revenues (October)

·       Chile PPIs (October)

·       Mexico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Mid-Month Inflation (November)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (November), Interest Rate Decision (November), Leading Indicators (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Bangladesh will host the Indian Ocean Rim Association Council of Ministers.  Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has been invited to attend and while there is expected to hold bilateral meetings with Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing & Services & Composite PPIs (October), Coindicant Index (September)

·       Taiwan M2 Money Supply (October)

·       South Korea Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, PPIs (October)

·       Singapore Current Account (Q3)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Parliament is expected to approve an €18 billion loan to Ukraine for 2023.  Additionally, they are expected to pass a measure confirming that EU member states will not accept passports by Russia in illegally-occupied areas of Georgia and Ukraine.

·       The EU Extraordinary Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council meet to seek a political agreement on better coordination of gas purchases, exchange of gas across borders, and reliable price benchmarks.  They are also expected to seek political agreement on regulations laying out a temporary framework to accelerate the deployment of renewable energy.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives the keynote speech at the Bank of England Watchers’ Conference in London, England.

·       ECB Board Member Andrea Enria gives a presentation of the 40th Board of Directors meeting of the European Savings and Retail Banking Group (ESRB) and the 19th ESBG General Assembly in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a speech at the Analysis Forum in Milan, Italy.

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (November), IFO Current Conditions (November), Ifo Expectations (November)

·       France Business Confidence (November)

·       UK CBI Industrial Trends Orders (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) will meet with senior Indian officials to discuss a free trade agreement.  The GCC is composed of six countries: Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain. India and the UAE already have a bilateral free trade pact signed in May.  Overall, India’s exports to the GCC increased by 58 percent in 2021-2022.

·       Lebanon’s National Assembly will meet again to try to elect a president. It will be the seventh time the Assembly has sought to agree on a president.  The Assembly is evenly split between Christians and Muslims, and whoever is chosen must get 2/3 of the vote. The Iranian-backed armed group, Hezbollah, is a major force in Lebanon’s politics, and they want a president who will allow them to further consolidate power in the country.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bahrain Inflation Report (October)

·       Kuwait Inflation Report (October)

·       Saudi Arabia Balance of Trade (September)

·       Turkey Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Overnight Lending (November), FX Reserves (November),  Business Confidence (November), Capacity Utilization (November), Business Confidence (November),

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

South Africa Business Confidence (Q4), Interest Rate Decision, PPIs (October)

Ghana 2023 Budget

Zambia Inflation (November), Balance of Trade (October)

Kenya Central Bank Interest Rate Press Briefing

Nigeria GDP Growth Rate (Q3)

Friday, November 25, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) hosts the Pacific Alliance Leaders’ Summit which will include  the Presidents of Chile, Argentina, Ecuador, Peru, and Columbia.  The leaders are expected to discuss how to promote greater economic integration and possible free trade agreements. Additionally, AMLO intends to discuss how the attending nations can expert more power at the Organization of American States (OAS) which AMLO believes is subordinated to US interests.  No representatives from the US or Canada have been invited.  Additionally, the leaders are expected to discuss inviting Costa Rica as a member.

·       “Black Friday” sales in the US, one of the biggest sales days in the US for retailers who offer special sales to “stay in the black” for the year.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       A Hong Kong court will hand down a verdict over whether Roman Catholic Cardinal Joseph Zen and five other pro-democracy figures failed to register a legal fund with the police.  Their arrests set off worldwide condemnation.  The normal penalty for first-time offenders is HK $10,000.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       India FX Reserves (November)

·       Japan CPIs (November)

·       Singapore GDP (Q3), Industrial Production (October)

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (November), GDP (Q3)

·       Pakistan Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Vietnam FDI report (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets to discuss development issues, specifically to follow up on the EU-African Union Summit (which took place in February 2022), and the EU response to the crisis in Ukraine and Afghanistan.

·       The EU Extraordinary Justice and Home Affairs Council meets to discuss all migratory routes and issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Kerstin af Jochnick gives the keynote speech at the European Society for Banking and Financial Law Italy annual conference in Milan, Italy.

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos attends a presentation of the new book “"Política económica de la Segunda República. España en la Gran Depresión internacional" by Luis Peral Guerra in Madrid, Spain.

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (December), GDP Growth (Q3)

·       UK CBI Distributive Trades (November)

·       Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls (Q3)

·       France Consumer Confidence (November), Unemployment Benefit Claims (October)

·       Hungary Unemployment Figures (October)

·       Spain PPIs (October)

·       Italy Business Confidence (November)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Financial Stability Report

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (October)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (November)

·       Angola Interest Rate Decision

·       Eswatini Interest Rate Decision

Saturday, November 26, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Early voting begins in Georgia for the Senate run-off election being held on December 5th.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwan is set to hold elections for local positions ranging from mayors to village chiefs.  The opposition Kuomintang (KMT) Party – which seeks better relations with Beijing – appears to be running strong in pre-election polls.  Of particular note, the great-grandson of former Taiwan leader Ching Kai-shek and who is a member of the KMT, appears poised to win the Mayoral election in Taipei. 

·       Japan’s Imperial Palace grounds in Tokyo will open to the public for the first time in three years to view the autumn foliage season.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK’s national rail union (Aslef) goes on strike over wages.  The strike will impact 12 companies.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Sunday, November 27, 2022:

Global

·       The First Day of Advent in the Gregorian Christian Calendar marking the start of the western church’s countdown to Christmas.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Industrial Production (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.