The Global Week Ahead

Trump’s Tariffs Go Into Effect as China and EU Move to Retaliate, Netanyahu Meets with Trump on Iran and Tariffs, and Markets Look to Fed Minutes for Guidance

April 6 - 13, 2025

What a week the global markets had last week! And it is not over, as this coming week looks just as turbulent. President Trump’s new tariff regime will go into effect this week, and China’s retaliatory 34% tariffs will go into effect, too. EU trade ministers’ officials meet on Tuesday to consider the full impact of the Trump tariffs and likely move to institute their retaliatory tariffs.

We expect a number of bilateral meetings to be announced this week with the US as countries seek quick relief. Vietnam has already sent a delegation to Washington, and we will be watching closely for any announcements. Vietnam has a $124 billion trade deficit with the US, the second highest after China, and has been hit with a 46% tariff rate. The US is Vietnam’s largest export market.

With all this going on, the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG), which is comprised of 50 countries supporting Ukraine militarily and financially, will meet in Brussels. But for the first time, no senior US official will attend. The absence comes as President Trump continues to press Russia to agree to a cease-fire – an effort that saw Kirill Dmitriev, the head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, was taken off the US sanctions list so he could travel to Washington to meet with US officials to discuss the current peace proposal. The former Goldman Sachs banker has since told reporters he believes there will be further discussions this coming week between Washington and Moscow, but he gave no details in what form they will take.

Also this coming week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is traveling to Washington for his second set of meetings this year with President Trump. The two leaders are expected to discuss the tariff situation, the situation in Gaza, and the policy coordination toward Iran.

We would also note that something else of significance is taking place in Washington this week: Tawain’s top national security official, Joseph Wu, is holding a secret meeting with senior US officials about the ongoing tensions with China. The US and Taiwan are terming the meetings as a “special channel” for Tawain and the US to discuss security issues.

 Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, markets are looking to Wednesday’s release of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee minutes for indications of what the Fed might do regarding the tariffs. Also out this week will be US CPI for March and the important University of Michigan consumer survey for April.

In Europe, European Central Bank officials will gather with EU Finance and economic ministers this week to discuss the economic impact of the tariffs. Also this week, the UK GDP for February is out on Friday, and Germany reports its March CPI numbers.

In Asia, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will speak on Wednesday and likely reveal early views of the tariffs' impact. Meanwhile, China will report both CPI and PPI figures on Thursday.

Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, April 6, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazilian right-wing supporters will demonstrate in Sao Paulo in support of former President Jair Bolsonaro.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Daylight Savings ends in Australia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (March)/ Foreign Direct Investment (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Industrial Production (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Tourist Arrivals (March)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 7, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on UN Peacekeeping operations (HOMC).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House. In a statement, the Israeli Prime Minister said the two leaders will discuss “discuss the tariff issue, the efforts to return our hostages, Israel-Turkey relations, the Iranian threat and the battle against the International Criminal Court.”

·       US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth travels to Panama for talks with Panama’s President Jose Raul Mulino.

·       New session of Greenlandic Parliament (Inatsisartut) opens.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler will give a virtual lecture at Harvard University entitled “Inflation Dynamics and the Phillips Curve.”

·       Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Mexico Auto Exports (March)/ Auto Production (March)

·       Canada BoC Business Outlook Survey

·       USA Consumer Credit Change (February)/ Used Car Prices (March)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (March)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (March)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       ASEAN finance ministers and central bank chiefs will meet in Kuala Lumpur through April 10. They will seek to address economic challenges, including the impact of Trump's latest tariffs. The main meeting is set for Thursday and is expected to discuss regional financial integration and resilience amid escalating geopolitical tensions.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (February)/ Overtime Pay (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ Coincident Index Prel (February)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (February)

·       Australia ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (March)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Philippines Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Indonesia Tourist Arrivals (January & February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Luxembourg to discuss President Trump’s tariffs and possible responses and retaliatory tariffs. They will also discuss ongoing trade issues with China.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Culture and Media Ministers through April 8 in Warsaw, Poland.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte travels to Tokyo, Japan for talks.

·       Polish President Andrzej Duda visits Estonia for bilateral talks.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov speaks at opening of TASS photo exhibition in Moscow.  He then will give remarks later regarding the development of the Kaluga region.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in  Session 2 "Central bank money in a digital World: CBDCs" at conference "The interplay between tax and financial regulations in a new digital environment" organized by Banca d'Italia, Institute for Austrian and International Tax Law and Vienna University of Economics and Business in Rome, Italy.

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Industrial Production (February)

·       Romania Retail Sales (February)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (March)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (March)

·       Hungary Retail Sales (February)

·       France Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (February)

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Euro Area Retail Sales (February)/ ECB Cipollone Speech

·       Greece Balance of Trade (February)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/28)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron visits Cairo, Egypt for bilateral talks.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (March)

·       Israel Interest Rate Decision/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Jordan GDP Growth Rate Q4/ PPI (February)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (February)/ Private Bank Lending (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

Tuesday, April 8, 2025 

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK). 

·       The Soyuz MS-27 spacecraft launches from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan to ISS with two Russians and one American.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Central American Security Conference, organized by Panama and US Southern Command begins in Panama and goes through April 10.  US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth will participate.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in “The Economic Outlook and Work of the Federal Reserve" conversation hosted by the Brigham Young University Marriott School of Business.

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (March)/ Redbook (April/05)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/04)

·       Chile Inflation Rate (March)

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (February)/ Nominal Budget Balance (February)/ Car Production (March)/ New Car Registrations (March)

·       Canada Ivey PMI s.a (March)

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea will announce the date of forthcoming snap elections.

·       Vietnamese President Luong Cuong will pay a state visit to Laos through April 9. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence & Utilization Q1

·       Japan Current Account (February)/ Bank Lending (March)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (March)

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (April)/ NAB Business Confidence (March)

·       South Korea Current Account (February)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (February)/ Industrial Production (February)

·       Indonesia Inflation Rate (March)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will visit London for another round of free trade negotiations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Luis de Guindos gives the closing speech at the annual meeting of the Spanish Banking Association in Madrid, Spain.  Later in the day, he will give the introductory statement at a Hearing on the digital euro before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Bank of England Governor Clare Lombardelli takes part in a panel discussion with former Obama adviser Jason Furman on the divergence between British and American economic productivity at an event hosted by the Resolution Foundation think-tank in London.

·       Ireland Construction PMI (March)/ Industrial Production (February)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (March)/ Budget Balance (March)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Current Account (February)

·       Euro Area ECB Guindos Speech/ ECB Cipollone Speech

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Kenya Interest Rate Decision

·       Egypt Current Account Q4

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (March)

Wednesday, April 9, 2025

Global

·       President Donald Trump’s announced trade tariffs are due to take effect at 12:01 a.m. Washington time.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a private meeting on Somalia. .

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) Conference begins in Tegucigalpa, Honduras.

·       Union workers will begin a 36-hour long strike in Buenos Aires against President Javier Milei’s policies.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin participates in a conversation with the Economic Club of Washington.

·       Federal Reserve’s FOMC Minutes released/USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/04)/ MBA Purchase Index (April/04)/ Wholesale Inventories (February)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (April/04)

·       Brazil Bank Lending (February)/ Retail Sales (February)/ PPI (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (March)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (February)

·       El Salvador PPI (March)

·       Panama Current Account Q4

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Asian Development Bank releases the latest edition of its widely followed economic publication, the Asian Development Outlook. The report will include growth forecasts for emerging economies in Asia this year and next

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Governor Kazuno Ueda gives a speech at the 100th Trustee Conference in Tokyo.

·       Australia Building Permits (February)/ Private House Approvals (February)

·       New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (March)

·       Indonesia RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio

·       Japan Consumer Confidence (March)/ Machine Tool Orders (March)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 10th EU-Ukraine Association Council will meet in Brussels

·       Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez visits Vietnam and China through April 11.

·       The Chair and Vice-Chair of The European Parliament’s Delegation for Relations with the United States, together with the chairs of the committees on foreign affairs and international trade, will travel to Washington DC to meet with counterparts in the US Congress. They will discuss the situation in Ukraine and its impact on transatlantic relations, EU-US trade, and relations with China.

·       The Delphi Economic Forum begins in Delphi, Greece and runs through April 12.  A number of government officials, senior business executives, and central bankers are scheduled to speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a in policy panel 'Macro-Financial Stability Policy in a Fragmented World' at Bruegel's 20th anniversary event "Globalization and geo-economic fragmentation" organized together with De Nederlandsche Bank in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

·       Romania Balance of Trade (February)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (February)

·       Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech

·       Russia GDP Growth Rate Q4

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The US-MEAD Summit takes place in Abu Dhabi, UAE.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, April 10, 2025 

Global

·       G20 finance and central bank deputies two-day meeting begins in Johannesburg, South Africa.

·       There will be a meeting of the BRICS Working Group on Security in the Use of Information and Communications Technologies (WGSICT) in Brasilia, Brazil through April 11.

Americas

·       China’s 34% retaliatory tariffs against US imports take effect.

·       A senior Ukrainian delegation is expected to travel to Washington to discuss a draft proposal granting the US access to critical minerals in Ukraine (to be confirmed).

Political/Social Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman will have her confirmation hearing to serve as Vice Chair for Supervision before the Senate Banking Committee.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan gives welcome remarks before hybrid Outlook for North American Trade and Immigration event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Economic Club of New York.

·       Canada Building Permits (February)

·       USA Inflation Rate (March)/ CPI (March)/ Initial Jobless Claims (April/05)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/04)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/10)/ WASDE Report/ Monthly Budget Statement (March)/ Fed Balance Sheet (April/09)

·       Mexico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (March)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (February)

·       Peru Balance of Trade (February)/ Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Global Technology Summit begins in New Delhi.

Economic Reports/Events –

§  Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock to speak at the Chief Executive Women Melbourne Annual Dinner in Melbourne, Australia.

§  South Korea Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (April/05)/ PPI (March)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/05)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)/ RBA Bullock Speech

·       China Inflation Rate (March)/ PPI (March)

·       Philippines Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Kazakhstan PPI (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The UK-Germany-France led “Coalition of the Willing” will meet at NATO Headquarters.  The coalition consists of those countries willing to militarily and financially support Ukraine.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal in Brussels.

·       Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will conduct a state visit to South Africa.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will give a
lecture at the SGH Warsaw School of Economics in Warsaw, Poland.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner will participate in a  session "Adapting regulation and supervision to diversity in the EU banking system" at Eurofi High Level Seminar in Warsaw, Poland.  Later in the day, he will participate in a session entitled “''Banking Union: combining EU and national interests."

·       Bank of England deputy governor for financial stability Sarah Breeden speaks at Market News International connect event, UK Economic and Financial Stability Prospects in London.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen will participate in apanel discussion "Priorities for the EU banking sector" at Eurofi High Level Seminar in Warsaw, Poland.

·       European Central Bank Supervisory Board Member Sharon Donnery will give a  speech at the Delphi Economic Forum X in Delphi, Greece.

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (March)

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Euro Area ECB Montagner Speech/ ECB Tuominen Speech/ ECB Buch Speech/ ECB Donnery Speech/ ECOFIN Meeting/ Eurogroup Meeting

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (February)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/04)

·       Italy Industrial Production (February)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (February)

·       Greece Inflation Rate (March)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (March)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (March)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (March)

·       Switzerland SNB Moser Speech/ SNB Tschudin Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Tesla will begin selling its cars in Saudi Arabia for the first time.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The International Court of Justice is set to hear arguments in a case filed by Sudan against the United Arab Emirates, in which Khartoum has accused the Gulf state of complicity in genocide.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production (February)

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (March)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (March)

Friday, April 11, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy and participates in moderated conversation before the Arkansas State Bank Department's 29th Annual Day with the Commissioner.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy before the Puerto Rico Chamber of Commerce.

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (March)/ IBC-BR Economic Activity (February)/ Business Confidence (April)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (February)

·       USA PPI (March) / Michigan Current Conditions Prel (April)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (April/11)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (March)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (March)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (January)/ Business Confidence Q1

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

·       India Industrial Production (February)/ Inflation Rate (March)/ Manufacturing Production (February)/ Bank Loan Growth (March/28)/ Deposit Growth (March/28)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/04)

·       Indonesia Car Sales (March)

·       China Vehicle Sales (March)/ New Yuan Loans (March)/ M2 Money Supply (March)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (March)/ Total Social Financing (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup will meet in Warsaw, Poland.  Leaders will discuss economic developments and euro area policy coordination and upcoming international meetings.  There will also be an informal meeting of EU Economic and Financial Affairs Ministers through April 12.

·       The Ukraine Defense Contact Group will meet at NATO Headquarters in Brussels.  Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is expected to skip the meeting in an unusual and widely noted move.

·       The Council of Foreign Ministers of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) will meet in Kazakhstan.  The CIS is made up of 12 former Soviet states: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan.

·       IN Instanbul, the trial of Istanbul Mayor and national opposition leader Ekrem Imamoglu for various charges begins.

·       Turkey will host the annual Antalya Diplomacy Forum in its Mediterranean resort city of Antalya through Sunday. Under the theme "Reclaiming Diplomacy in a Fragmented World.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Inflation Rate (March)/ Current Account (February)

·       Romania Inflation Rate (March)/ Current Account (February)

·       Great Britain Goods Trade Balance (February)/ Balance of Trade (February)/ GDP (February)/ Construction Output (February)/ Industrial Production (February)/ Manufacturing Production (February)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (March)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (February)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (February)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (March)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Turkey Retail Sales (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ Auto Production & Sales (March)

·       Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech/ ECOFIN Meeting

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (March)

·       Poland Balance of Trade (February)/ Current Account (February)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (February)/ Current Account Q1/ Inflation Rate (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Inflation Rate (March)

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (February & March)

Saturday, April 12, 2025

Global

·       The Jewish holiday of Passover begins and goes through April 20.

·       Today is Palm Sunday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Osaka Expo begins with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba as well as the nation's emperor and empress are due to attend the opening ceremony.  The Expo goes for six months and will showcase technologies and innovations from 165 countries and organizations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Gabon holds Presidential and Parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, April 13, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Ecuador holds its 2nd round of presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ecuador Presidential Election (2nd Round)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Beijing hosts the world’s first half marathon featuring both human and humanoid robot runners at the Chinese capital’s artificial intelligence hub.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Finland holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.