The Global Week Ahead

Syria’s Simmering Civil War Explodes Again, France’s Government on Brink of Crisis, OPIC+ Meets to Possibly Approve Production Increases, Key International Chairs Change Hands, And A Big Week of Economic Data Releases

December 1 - 8, 2024

We are four weeks away from 2025, but 2024 is going out with a bang. In Syria, where the civil war had been at a relatively low boil this past year, all hell broke out when rebels (mostly aligned with radical Islamist groups) launched a massive surprise attack on the city of Aleppo, the most populous governate and city in Syria. They captured it with relative ease and continued to press their attacks south toward the city of Hama, hammering Syrian Army forces (who are supported by the Russian Air Force and elements of the Russian Army).

The reignited conflict brings a new element of uncertainty and risk to the Middle East and is seen as a significant blow to Russia and Iran, both of whom have been propping up and helping to defend the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (who was in Moscow when the offensive began and had to rush back to Damascus to deal with it).

Meanwhile, in France, far-right leader Marine Le Pen gave French Prime Minister Michel Barnier until Monday to come up with more concessions (Barnier had already acceded to earlier Le Pen demands to drop planned tax increases) in the hotly debated 2025 budget or face a no-confidence vote in parliament which would throw the government into crisis. Markets have been selling off in the face of what is likely to be a wild week politically in Paris.

Also, in Europe this week, NATO member foreign ministers will meet in Brussels for an important discussion on how to further aid Ukraine. The meeting comes after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky suggested in a media interview this past week that an offer of NATO membership for territory currently under Ukraine’s control could end “the hot stage of the war.”  

Also this week, new leadership comes (or is about to come) to three important international seats:

• The US will take the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of December.

• South Africa officially takes the presidency of the G20 from Brazil for 2025.

• Poland begins laying the groundwork for its upcoming role as President of the European Union on January 1 and will continue until June 2025.

We would also note that OPEC+ meets this week to discuss possibly increasing production output—a highly contentious issue among the oil-producing states. The meeting was originally scheduled for December 1, but behind-the-scenes disagreements forced it to be postponed until December 5.

Looking at the economic radar screen this week, markets are watching the US jobs report released this Friday. Wall Street consensus estimates are roughly in the 200,000-plus range. Also, this week, the ISM Indices – manufacturing and services, on Monday and Wednesday, respectively.  And the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book are out on Friday.

In Europe, Germany—which continues to struggle economically—will release important factory order data, industrial production figures, and its trade balance. These releases come as Volkswagen workers begin to go on strike over upcoming layoffs and plant closures. 

In Asia, Japan releases both wage and consumption activity reports on Friday, while China releases its November PMIs and the Caixin indices.  

To top it all off, Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give much-watched speeches on their views of the global economy on Wednesday. 

Below are all the other major geopolitical and market events we are watching in the coming week:

Sunday, December 1, 2024

Global

·       South Africa takes the presidency of the G20 Presidency.  South African President Cyril Ramaphosa will bring the media on Monday, December 2, on the South African agenda for the year.

·       The U.S. assumes the Chair of the UN Security Council for the month of December.

·       COP16 of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification begins in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and goes through December 13.

·       Today is the first day of Advent.

·       Today is the first day of the meteorological winter int the Northern Hemisphere.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Joe Biden departs for a trip to Angola.  The purpose of the meeting is to improve US-African relations but also highlight a U.S. backed railway project.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwan’s President Willam Lai continues a tour of the Marshall Islands, Palau, and Tuvalu – all of whom have diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

·       Today is Kazakhstan’s First President’s Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Australia Commodity Prices (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Romania holds parliamentary elections.

·       Liechtenstein holds a referendum regarding a package of measures proposed by the Liechtenstein Employee Pension Foundation (SPL), directed at a state pension fund. 

·       Ursala von der Leyen formally begins her second term as European Commission President.

·       Today is Portugal Independence Day, a national holiday.

·       Today is Romania Independence Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) leaders will meet in Kuwait to discuss regional issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Freedom and Democracy Day in Chad, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, December 2, 2024

Global

·        The UN Security Council meets on the situation of children in Haiti.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly meets Baltic counterparts in Riga, Latvia.

·       Germany’s former Chancellor Angela Merkel presents her memoir 'Freedom' in a joint appearance with former President Barack Obama in Washington, D.C.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams will participate in a conversation organized by the Queens Chamber of Commerce.

·       Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)/ Business Confidence (November)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (October)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (November)/Fed Balance Sheet (November/27)

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       East Timor's Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao makes an official visit to Malaysia for talks with Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. The trip comes as the small country of about 1.3 million people prepares to join the Association of Southeast Asian Nations as its 11th member state. Malaysia chairs the bloc next year.

·       Nepali Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli visits China, casting off a tradition in which the Himalayan nation's leaders make India their first foreign trip after taking office. Oli is expected to request a waiver on a $216 million Chinese loan used to build the country's third international airport. The airport has not drawn any international flights since its opening last year.

·       The trial begins of Malaysian ex-prime minister Najib Razak on charges of taking bribes, money laundering linked to 1MDB scandal.

·       Today is Saba Day in Saba, celebrating the independence of the small island in the Netherlands Antilles.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Building Permits (October)

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (November)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (November)/ Building Permits (October)/ Company Gross Profits Q3/ Retail Sales (October)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (November)/ Business Inventories Q3/ Private House Approvals (October)/ RBA Jacobs Speech/ Commodity Prices (November)

·       Japan Capital Spending Q3/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (November)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ Tourist Arrivals (October)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Business Confidence (November)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (November)

·       Kazakhstan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ Wholesale Prices (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       French Prime Minister Michel Barnier faces a deadline set by French opposition leader Marine Le Pen to offer new, farther reaching budget concessions or face a no-confidence vote which could topple the government.

·       German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock visits China through December. On Sunday, before departing for Beijing, Baerbock strongly criticized China for supporting Russia in its war on Ukraine.

·       German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius visits Norway for talks with Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram.

·       Romania’s top court is expected to rule on whether to annul the first round of presidential elections (the second round is scheduled for December 8).   The challenge to the results were brought after allegations of external interference in the elections by Russia.

·       Germany’s IG Metall union calls for possible warning strikes in Volkswagen factories across the country.

·       UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will give his annual foreign policy speech at the Lord Mayor’s Banquet in the City of London.  Earlier in the day, Starmer hosts Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis for bilateral talks.

·       The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Employment and Social Policy) meets in Brussels through December 3.  Ministers will discuss EU demographic challenges, labor and skills shortages in the EU, and the traineeships directive.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in an EIB Group Climate and Environment Advisory Council in Luxembourg.

·       Bank of England Director of Financial Stability Strategy and Risk Lee Foulger gives a speech at  the Bloomberg UK Policy Series in London.

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Average Weekly Earnings Q3

·       Netherlands Retail Sales (October)/ NEVI Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (November)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (November)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Final (September)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (October)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)/ New Car Sales (November)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Unemployment Rate (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ New Car Registrations (November)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)/ New Car Registrations (November)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)/ ECB President Lagarde Speech/ Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Serbia GDP Growth Rate Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will give testimony at his ongoing corruption trial.  He is the first sitting Israeli prime minister to testify in a public corruption trial.

·       Today is UAE National Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The SenHabitat 2024 begins in Dakar, Senegal bringing together investors and government officials focused on real estate, housing, and construction

·       Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (November)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (November)

Tuesday, December 3, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler gives a speech on the Labor Market and Monetary Policy at the Detroit Economic Club in Detroit, Michigan.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee to give closing remarks before hybrid Midwest Agriculture Conference entitled "The Changing Landscape for Agricultural Inputs."

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (October)/ Gross Fixed Investment (September)

·       USA Redbook (November)/30/ JOLTs Job Openings (October)/ JOLTs Job Quits (October)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (December)/API Crude Oil Stock Change (November/29)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (November)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       US Space Force opens a unit at Yokota Air Base in Japan.

·       The 20th Tokyo-Beijing Forum takes place in Tokyo.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Import Prices Q3/ Export Prices Q3/ Terms of Trade Q3/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (December/03)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (November)

·       Australia Current Account Q3/ Net Exports Contribution to GDP Q3

·       Hong Kong: The British Chamber of Commerce in China will release its annual business sentiment survey, followed by the German chamber's confidence survey. 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO holds a two-day foreign ministers meeting in Brussels to discuss the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East.  NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will also receive His Majesty King Abdullah II ibn Al Hussein of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.

·       The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Health) meets in Brussels.  Ministers will adopt a recommendation on smoke- and aerosol-free environments, focusing on key outdoor areas like playgrounds and restaurant terraces, as well as emerging tobacco and related products such as e-cigarettes, heated tobacco products and heated herbal products.  The Council will also discuss the state of play of the revision of pharmaceutical legislation in the EU, focusing on regulatory incentives. The package aims to improve security of supply of medicines and prevent shortages.

·       The Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani ,begins a two-day state visit, accompanied by his first wife, Sheikha Jawaher bint Hamad bin Suhaim Al Thani.  King Charles and Queen Camilla will host the visitors at Buckingham Palace, and Starmer will meet the Emir for bilateral talks in Downing Street.

·       FT Global Banking Summit opens in London. Speakers across the two-day event include Barclays chief executive CS Venkatakrishnan and Deutsche Bank chief executive Christian Sewing.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a pre-recorded conversation with Daniele Manca at GeoEconomy Talk organized by RCS Academy, the Business School of RCS MediaGroup, in collaboration with Il Corriere della Sera in Milan, Italy.

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (November)

·       Romania PPI (October)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (November)/ PPI (November)

·       Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (November)

·       France Budget Balance (October)

·       Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech

·       Slovakia Real Wages Q3

·       Spain Unemployment Change (November)/ Tourist Arrivals (October)

·       Ireland Construction Output Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (November)

·       Qatar Financial Centre PMI (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (November)

·       South Africa GDP Growth Rate Q3

Wednesday, December 4, 2024

Global

·       The UN General Assembly meets on the situation in Gaza. 

·       The OECD releases its Economic Outlook.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell participates in a moderated discussion at the New York Times DealBook Summit in New York.

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem to speak before the Bloomberg/Global Interdependence Center College of Central Bankers Symposium.

·       Brazil Industrial Production (October)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (November)

·       USA Fed Beige Book/MBA Mortgage Market Index (November/29)/ ADP Employment Change (November)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (November)/ ISM Services PMI (November)/ ISM Services Business/ Employment/ New Orders/ Prices Activity (November)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (November/29)

·       Canada Labor Productivity Q3/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (November)

·       Colombia Exports (October)/ PPI (November)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Australia Ai Group Industry & Construction & Manufacturing Index (November)/ Judo Bank Services PMI Final (November)/ Judo Bank Composite PMI Final (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q3/ GDP Chain Price Index Q3/ GDP Final Consumption Q3

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (November)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Services & Composite PMI Final (November)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (November)

·       China Caixin Services & Composite PMI (November)

·       India HSBC Services & Composite PMI Final (November)

·       Kazakhstan S&P Global Services PMI (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK City minister and Economic Secretary to the Treasury Tulip Siddiq and Chinese ambassador to the UK Zeguang Zheng speak at the OMFIF China-UK Investor forum in London.

·       The European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee will hear from Christine Lagarde, first in her capacity as President of the European Central Bank and then as Chair of the European Systemic Risk Board. Economic governance, geo-political risks, and the cost of living are all expected to feature prominently in the discussions. The hearings will be followed by another debate with Dominique Laboureix, Chair of the Single Resolution Board 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks at the Financial Times Global Boardroom event in London.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a virtual speech followed by a Q&A session at the 7th conference on behavioral financial regulations and policies organized by Herbert Simon Society in Milan, Italy.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Russia S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (November)

·       Spain HCOB Services & Composite PMI (November)

·       Italy HCOB Services & Composite PMI (November)

·       France HCOB Services & Composite PMI (November)

·       Germany HCOB Services & Composite PMI (November)/ New Car Registrations (November)

·       Euro Area HCOB Services & Composite PMI (November)/ PPI (October)

·       UK S&P Global Services & Composite PMI Final (November)

·       Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Prel (November)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (November)

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Africa Investment Forum begins in Rabat, Morocco and runs through Friday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (November)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (November)/ Consumer Confidence Q4

·       Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (November)

·       Ghana S&P Global PMI (November)

·       Nigeria Balance of Trade (July)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Balance of Trade (September)

Thursday, December 5, 2024 

Global

·       Ministers from Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (Opec+) meet in Vienna, Austria.  The meeting was originally scheduled for December 1 but was moved to today. Ministers are going to consider reviving halted production beginning in January.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to speak before in-person Charlotte Regional Business Alliance 2024 Economic Outlook event.

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (November)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Initial Jobless Claims (November)/30/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (November/29)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/04)/ Fed Balance Sheet (December/04)

·       Brazil Car Production (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Ivey PMI s.a (November)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Malaysia Motor Show begins in Kula Lumpur.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Toyoaki Nakamura gives a speech in Hiroshima to local business leaders.

·       South Korea GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (November)/30/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (November)/30/ BOJ Nakamura Speech

·       Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (November)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (October)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council (Transport) meets in Brussels.  Ministers will be asked to approve the Council’s position (‘general approach’) on several legislative files: the directive on driving disqualifications, which forms part of the ‘road safety’ package, the regulation on passenger rights in the context of multimodal journeys and the regulation on enforcement of passenger rights in the EU. The Council will also hold a policy debate on air passenger rights and take note of a progress report on the combined transport directive. 

·       In Lyon, France, the Festival of Lights will be held. Originally aimed at expressing gratitude towards Mary, mother of Jesus, kicks off with hundreds of thousands of spectators expected to attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Executive Director Victoria Cleland gives a speech at the Fintech Connect event in London on ‘The future road map of Bank of England’s real time gross settlement (RTGS) service.’

·       European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner gives a speech at the IIF Colloquium on European Banking Regulation & Supervision in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Germany Factory Orders (October)/ HCOB Construction PMI (November)

·       Romania Retail Sales (October)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Prel (October)/ Retail Sales (October)

·       France Industrial Production (October)/ HCOB Construction PMI (November)

·       Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Retail Sales (October)

·       Spain Industrial Production (October)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (November)/ Retail Sales (October)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (November)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (November)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (November)/ BoE Greene Speech

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (October)

·       Ireland Current Account Q3/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ GNP Q3

·       Serbia PPI (November)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/29)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Jordan PPI (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Current Account Q3

·       Kenya Interest Rate Decision

Friday, December 6, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Mercosur Summit begins in Uruguay, bringing leaders from the South American trading bloc together to discuss trade.  Last week, the French parliament dealt a tough blow to a potential EU-Mercosur agreement, siding with French farmers who opposed the deal and voting 484 to 70 against signing a deal.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman gives a speech at the Missouri Bankers Association Executive Management Conference (Virtual)

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly to participate in "Emerging Technology and the Economy" conversation hosted by the Hoover Institution.

·       Chile Inflation Rate (November)

·       Mexico Auto Exports & Production (November)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (November)/ Participation Rate (November)/ Full & Part Time Employment Chg (November)/ Average Hourly Wages (November)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (November)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (October)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (November)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (November)

·       USA Unemployment Rate (November)/ Participation Rate (November)/ Non-Farm and Manufacturing and Government Payrolls (November)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate/Michigan Current Conditions Prel (December)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (December/06)/ Consumer Credit Change (October)/ Used Car Prices (November)/ Total Vehicle Sales (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (October)

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (October)/ Household Spending (October)/ Overtime Pay (October)/ Coincident Index Prel (October)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (October)

·       Australia Home Loans (October)/ Investment Lending for Homes (October)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Tourist Arrivals (November)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (November)

·       India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/29)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russia's President Vladimir Putin visits Minsk, Belarus to validate security concept of the Russian-Belarusian Union.

·       The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) begins a two-day ministerial meeting in Malta.  Foreign ministers will meet to review and address the security situation in the Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian area, as well as to evaluate the Organization's work in all its fields of activity.

·       The EU Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council (Telecom) meets in Brussels.  Ministers will approve conclusions on the EU Agency for cybersecurity (ENISA) and on the Commission’s White Paper ‘How to master Europe’s digital infrastructure needs?’. They will also hold a policy debate on the digital decade 2030 objectives and targets in light of recent technological changes. Over an informal lunch, ministers will discuss ways to improve EU coordination and enhance the effectiveness of actions within the International Telecommunication Union (ITU). Finally, the incoming Polish presidency will inform the Council on its work program for the first semester 2025.

·       Today is Finland Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Netherlands Household Consumption (October)

·       Germany Industrial Production (October)

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (November)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (November)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (October)/ Budget Balance (November)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Current Account (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Italy Retail Sales (October)

·       Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Employment Change Q3

·       Greece Balance of Trade (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) holds its Manama Dialogue in Bahrain.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (November)

·       Jordan Unemployment Rate Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Ghana General Elections

Saturday, December 7, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The 22nd Doha Forum on Democracy, Development and Free Trade begins and runs through December 8. The theme of this year’s two-day event is “The Innovation Imperative.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Ghana holds both presidential and parliamentary elections.  However, the government is facing an unprecedented shutdown in advance of the election unless they pass a provisional budget in advance of the election.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 8, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Romania holds  its presidential election run-off.  

·       Notre-Dame Cathedral official reopens to the public after a catastrophic fire five years ago.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Geopolitical Outlook and Latin America 2025

The FLAR Conference 2024 Presentation

Cartegna, Colombia

It was a great pleasure to be asked to present at the FLAR Conference in Cartagena, Colombia recently. My presentation topic was broader geopolitical and geoeconomic trends that are likely to impact Latin America and which Latin American central banks need to consider in 2025. You can watch my presentation here (it begins at the 56-minute mark).

I recommend you continue to watch the panel presentation that followed for some great insights from the superb group I was honored to join to discuss and debate with on these timely topics.

Recommended Weekend Reads

China’s Economic Spillovers to Emerging Markets, Does the U.S. Really Face an “Axis” of Enemies”? And the Growing Asymmetric Threat to Undersea Communication Cables

November 29 - December 1, 2024

Geoeconomics

• China’s Financial Spillovers to Emerging Markets  Banco de España

  This paper analyzes the financial spillovers of shocks originating in China to emerging markets. Using a high-frequency identification strategy based on sign and narrative restrictions, we find that equity markets react strongly and persistently to Chinese macroeconomic shocks, while monetary policy shocks have limited or no spillovers. The impact is particularly strong in Latin American equity markets, with the likely channel being the effect of shocks in China on international commodity prices. These effects extend to various financial variables, such as sovereign and corporate spreads and exchange rates, suggesting that macroeconomic shocks in China may have implications for economic cycles and financial stability in emerging markets.
  
  

• The Puzzle of Multinationals’ Profits: Why Tax Havens Yield Higher Returns  Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis On the Economy Blog

  A striking pattern emerges when examining the returns that U.S. multinational companies generate on the assets they invest across different countries: Investments in tax havens consistently yield returns of 8% to 17%, while investments in other G7 economies (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the U.K.) yield more modest returns of 4% to 9%. This remarkable difference raises a question about the nature of multinationals’ profit patterns.

• Federal Reserve Independence and Congressional Intent: A Reappraisal of Marriner Eccles’ Role in the Reformulation of the Fed in 1935  Gary Richardson & David W. Wilcox/National Bureau of Economic Research

  Congressional intent concerning the independence of the Federal Reserve matters because it protects the public from the politicization of monetary policy. Attempts to subordinate monetary policy to the President could easily end up in front of the Supreme Court. The outcome of such a case would depend, importantly, on the historical record. Understanding what Congress intended when it designed the decision-making structure of the Fed requires a clear understanding Marriner Eccles’ proposal for the structure of monetary policymaking in Title II of the Banking Act of 1935 and the Congressional response. Eccles' proposal vested monetary policymaking in a body beholden to the President. Eccles argued that leaders of the Fed should serve at the discretion of the President and implement the President's monetary program. The Senate and House rejected Eccles' proposal and explicitly designed the Fed's leadership structure to limit politicians'—particularly the President's—influence on monetary policymaking.
  
  

• Ending Bailouts, At Last  John Cochrane & Amit Seru/Hoover Institution

  In 2008, we had a financial crisis. Our government responded once again with bailouts. Bailouts keep existing business going, and most of all protect creditors from losses. The instruments vary, including direct creditor guarantees like deposit insurance, mergers of failing companies with sound ones sweetened with government money or government purchases of bad assets, or government purchases, guarantees, and other efforts to prop up security prices and thereby cover up losses. Since actual or promised (contingent) resources flow from taxpayers to financial market participants, we include all of these interventions as “bailouts.”

The Threat of Asymmetric Attacks on Undersea Cables

• Safeguarding Subsea Cables: Protecting Cyber Infrastructure Amid Great Power Competition  Daniel Runde/ Center for Strategic and International Studies

  Subsea cables are critical for nearly all aspects of commerce and business connectivity. For example, one major international bank moves an average of $3.9 trillion through these cable systems every workday. Cables are the backbone of global telecommunications and the internet, given that user data (e.g., e-mail, cloud drives, and application data) are often stored in data centers around the world. This infrastructure effectively facilitates daily personal use of the Internet and broader societal functions. In addition, sensitive government communications also rely extensively on subsea infrastructure. Western defense and intelligence officials are increasingly concerned about Russia’s threats to disrupt and destroy the cables. What can be done?

• Understanding and Managing Global Catastrophic Risk  Rand

  In response to a request from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS)—specifically, FEMA—for support in meeting the requirements of the Congressionally mandated Global Catastrophic Risk Management Act (GCRMA)assessment requirement, RAND researchers developed a risk summary for each of the hazards and threats noted in the law. What are those hazards and threats? asteroid and comet impacts, super-volcanoes, severe pandemics, rapid and severe climate change, nuclear conflict, and AI.
  

• The United States and the “Axis” of Its Enemies: Myths vs. Reality  Eugene Rumer/Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  Since launching its all-out assault on Ukraine, Russia has drawn closer to China, Iran, and North Korea. But have they really formed an “axis?” Their interests have aligned but not merged. It makes little sense and can be even counterproductive to treat these four countries, each guided by its own vision, as a unified coalition.

China

• The Clandestine Oil Shipping Hub Funneling Iranian Crude to China  Bloomberg

  Bloomberg has written a fantastic interactive report on how a burgeoning group of “dark fleet” vessels are operating with impunity on the edge of major maritime thoroughfares. And in these ships, hundreds of millions of barrels of sanctioned oil is being moved by Iran and China – with tremendous risk to the environment.

Opening of the DWS Rep Office in Colombia

A Superb Trip to Bogotá Meeting with Colombia’s Financial Leaders As Colombia Increasingly Becomes a Central Focus of Global Investors

From left to right: DWS’ Aiviel Sanchez,  Ana María Rodríguez, Stella Gonzales Vigil, Mary Wallace, and myself at the DWS Rep Office Reception held at the J.W. Marriott in Bogáta on November 19, 2024.

It was my great pleasure and honor to visit Colombia last week for meetings in Bogáta and Cartenga, all arranged by DWS. Having the opportunity to meet with the leadership of the nation’s pensions funds, bank insurance fund, and other financial leaders was both timely and fascinating. Colombia is emerging as a major hub for technology in the region. Foreign investors are increasingly looking to Colombia as a superb choice to invest for the long term.

While there, I was honored to speak at the DWS Rep Office opening reception. DWS is expanding its operations throughout the region and in particular in Colombia. Colombian investors are deeply focused on the geopolitical developments - particularly between the US and China as well as the upcoming review of the USMCA. There was a lot to discuss with the attendees - and I suspect there will be even more to cover in the months to come.

The Global Week Ahead

France’s Fragile Coalition Government Faces A No-Confidence Vote, G7 Foreign Ministers Meet in Italy to Discuss the Situation in Ukraine and Israel, Washington Goes Quiet to Celebrate Thanksgiving, and Putin Travels to Kazakhstan

November 24 - December 1, 2024

While Washington goes (relatively) quiet this week before the Thanksgiving holiday, plenty of important events are taking place worldwide.  First, we would note a high-stakes meeting on Monday between French Prime Minister Michel Barnier and French right-wing leader Marine Le Pen to try to hammer out an agreement on the proposed 2025 budget.  Le Pen has threatened to call for a no-confidence vote, which would likely shatter the French government's fragile coalition.  Le Pen is also awaiting a verdict on the criminal case against her in French court this week – adding further tension in Paris. 

Meanwhile, the G7 foreign ministers gather in Italy to discuss Ukraine and the Middle East.  We would not the next time the G7 foreign ministers meet, it will be a very different group, with President-elect Trump's Secretary of State-designate Marco Rubio there and likely new foreign ministers representing Germany, Canada, and perhaps Japan.  All are likely to lean more to the right politically than the current group.

Kazakhstan will be hosting the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) Heads of State Summit, and Russian President Vladimir Putin will attend, where he seeks to sign a number of energy deals to boost Russian oil and gas exports.  His visit comes as his War on Ukraine is escalating to new levels, with Ukrainian forces empowered to use US and other NATO member-made advanced missiles against Russian (and North Korean) forces.   Early reports from the battlefield suggest the weapons are having a deadly effect on Russian forces, killing at least one senior Russian commander and hundreds of North Korean troops.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, US markets will be quiet, with Thanksgiving celebrated on Thursday and markets closed.  However, a number of important data reports will be released this week, as the October PCE and personal income and consumption data will be released on Wednesday, which will also be watched in advance of the upcoming December 18th Fed meeting.  Additionally, Fed FOMC minutes are being released on Tuesday.  The Conference Board's consumer confidence report will be released on Tuesday, too. 

In Asia this week, Japan releases CPI, Labor market, and several other major reports.  And in Europe, the European Central Bank releases its consumer expectations on Friday.  There will be a Eurozone inflation print on Friday.   Germany will see the release of the Ifo survey on Monday and retail sales on Friday.

Below is our weekly report of all the major political and economic issues and events we are watching closely this week.  Happy Thanksgiving!

Sunday, November 24, 2024 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Uruguay holds presidential runoff elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Senior Minister of Singapore Lee Hsien Loong visits China. It will be a six-day visit and his first visit since stepping down as Prime Minister in May.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Romania holds presidential elections. Surveys show that the current leading candidates are not backed by the governing Social Democrats (PSD) and the Liberals (PNL).  PSD and PNL will likely agree on a joint candidate ahead of the vote, with current Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu of the PSD being the most likely candidate. A second round will be held on 8 December.

·       Switzerland holds a vote on two referendums including one the 13th OASI pension payment – adding a 13th month of pension payments. And one raising the retirement age this year.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Guinea Bissau holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, November 25, 2024

Global

·       G7 Foreign Ministers meet in Fuggi and Anagni, Italy.

·      The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question, followed by consultations.

·      The 29th Conference of States Parties to the Chemical Weapons Convention, seeking cuts to such munitions, begins in The Hague and continues until Friday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US President Joe Biden hosts traditional pardon of a Thanksgiving turkey.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (November)/ Current Account (October)/ Foreign Direct Investment (October)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (October)

·       USA CB Consumer Confidence (November)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (November)/ Chicago Fed National Activity Index (October)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (October)

·       Mexico Current Account Q3

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim meets his South Korean counterpart, Yoon Suk Yeol, during a three-day official visit expected to see bilateral ties elevated to a strategic partnership. The two countries are aiming to finalize a free trade agreement in 2025.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Retail Sales Q3

·       Singapore GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (September)/ Leading Index (September)

·       Japan Coincident Index Final (September)/ Leading Economic Index Final (September)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ M2 Money Supply (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       French Prime Minister Michel Barnier meets with far-right leader Marine Le Pen.  Le Pen has threatened to see a no-confidence vote that would break up the fragile coalition government over the proposed 2025 budget. Meanwhile, Le Pen will learn the verdict date of the embezzlement trial against her on November 27.

·       German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius meets counterparts from France, Britain, Poland and Italy.

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz receives Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov in Berlin.

·       The European Economic Area Council will meet in Brussels. will discuss the overall functioning of the EEA Agreement and hold an orientation debate on “Enhancing Europe’s competitiveness and resilience: the role of the EEA cooperation.”  The meeting will be chaired by Espen Barth Eide, Minister for Foreign Affairs of Norway.

·       The EU Education, Youth, Culture and Sport Council meets in Brussels through November 26.  Ministers will discuss expected to approve conclusions on providing ‘glocal’ opportunities for young people living in rural and remote areas and will discuss the evolving demographic trends shaping opportunities for rural youth.  They will also seek to adopt a recommendation on attractive and sustainable careers in higher education and will hold a policy debate on boosting future-proof skills and competitiveness through higher education.

·       The Energy Intelligence Forum takes place in London through November 27.

·       German  Ex-chancellor Angela Merkel launches her memoir 'Freedom: Memories 1954 - 2021' (Freiheit: Erinnerungen 1954 – 2021).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the keynote speech at the Bank of England Watchers’ Conference 2024 in London.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Clare Lombardelli gives a speech at the 3rd Bank of England Watchers Conference in London.

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Swati Dhingra will participate in a panel at the 3rd Bank of England Watchers’ Conference on “inflation dynamics” in London.

·       Turkey Business Confidence (November)/ Capacity Utilization (November)

·       Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls Q3

·       Spain PPI (October)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate/ Current Conditions/ Expectations (November)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (October)/ Corporate Sector Wages (October)/ Employment Growth (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ PPI (October)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (November)/ Tourist Arrivals (October)

·       Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (October)

·       Ghana Interest Rate Decision

Tuesday, November 26, 2024 

Global

·       The UN Security Council meets on the protection of civilians in conflict. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (November)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (October)

·       US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Markets Committee minutes released/Redbook (November/23)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (September)/ House Price Index (September)/ New Home Sales (October)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (November)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (November)/ Money Supply (October)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (November/29)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (November/22)/ Building Permits Final (October)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The APAC Wind Energy Summit takes place in Seoul, South Korea. Asia-Pacific policymakers and industry leaders will discuss challenges in wind energy development as concern grows about how the sector will be impacted under a second Trump presidency in the United States. The three-day APAC Wind Energy Summit, hosted by the Global Wind Energy Council, highlights the region's key role in hitting global targets to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030.

·       The 2nd China International Supply Chain Expo takes place in Beijing.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Indonesia Property Price Index Q3

·       Singapore Industrial Production (October)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       France’s National Assembly holds a debate and vote on the prospect of a trade deal between the EU and South America’s Mercosur bloc, which is strongly opposed by French farmers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives a speech followed by Q&A at the EBF's Executive Committee Meeting in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Poland Retail Sales (October)

·       Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (September)

·       Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, November 27, 2024 

Global

·       The U.N. Environment Programme will convene the fifth session of its Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee in the South Korean city of Busan in pursuit of an international legally binding instrument on plastic pollution. Environmentalists say policymakers need to commit to cutting production of plastic, not just reusing or recycling it. A lack of consensus on finer details and opposition from major petroleum-producing countries could hinder efforts to reach an agreement.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (October)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (November/22)/ PCE Price Index (October)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (October)/ Initial Jobless Claims (November/23)/ Chicago PMI (November)/ Pending Home Sales (October)/ EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (November/22)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (November/26)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (November/22)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indonesians vote in nationwide regional polls to elect provincial governors, city leaders and regents. More than 3,000 candidates are set to compete across nearly 550 regions, including in the newly formed provinces South Papua, Central Papua and Highland Papua.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (November)

·       Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (October)/ Construction Work Done Q3

·       New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision/ RBNZ Press Conference

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (October)

·       Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (October)

·       Malaysia PPI (October)

·       India M3 Money Supply (November/15)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russia's President Vladimir Putin expected to visit Kazakhstan for bilateral meetings.  He will stay on for the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) Heads of State Summit through November 28.

·       The Nordic-Baltic Summit will be held through November 28 in Sweden.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives introductory remarks at the opening dinner of a Conference on “Macroeconomic modelling frontiers for research and policy” organized by the ECB in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence DEC

·       France Consumer Confidence (November)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (October)/ Jobseekers Total (October)

·       Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (November)

·       Russia Unemployment Rate (October)/ Business Confidence (November)/ Corporate Profits (September)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Real Wage Growth (September)/ Retail Sales (October)/ GDP (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Namibia holds general elections.

·       Tanzania holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, November 28, 2024

Global

· The World Trade Organization meets to advance the selection process for the next Director-General.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Thanksgiving in the US.  Markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (November)/ Bank Lending (October)/ PPI (October)/ Net Payrolls (October)

·       Canada Current Account Q3/ Average Weekly Earnings (September)

·       Mexico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Asian Development Bank announces its new president to succeed the outgoing Masatsugu Asakawa. Japan's former currency czar, Masato Kanda, was the sole candidate vying for the bank's top job. His expected appointment marks a continuation of the longstanding practice of the multilateral lender being led by a Japanese national since its founding in 1966.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (November/23)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (November/23)

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (November)

·       Australia Building Capital Expenditure Q3/ Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure Q3/ Private Capital Expenditure Q3/ RBA Bullock Speech

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU General Affairs Council (Cohesion) will meet in Brussels.  Ministers will hold a policy debate on strengthening the key assets of cohesion policy and how to improve the shared management of cohesion funds in line with the principle of subsidiarity in the future.

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (internal market and industry) meets in Brussels.  The Council will exchange views on better regulation in the EU. Ministers will be invited to discuss the current state of play of the better regulation agenda – also in connection with the Draghi report – and to identify pathways for improvement.

·       Italian trade unions will hold a general strike over the proposed Italian budget.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member  Frank Elderson gives introductory remarks at an online webinar "Advancements in Nature-Related Risks and Climate-Nature Scenarios for Financial Decision-Making" organized by NatureFinance and the European Central Bank.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a speech at the 25th anniversary of Euro 50 Group at Banque de France in Paris, France.

·       Great Britain Car Production (October)

·       Netherlands Business Confidence (November)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (October)/ Economic Confidence Index (November)/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/22)

·       Euro Area to Households & Companies (October)/ M3 Money Supply (October)/ Economic Sentiment (November)/ Consumer Confidence Final (November)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (November)/ Industrial Sentiment (November)/ Selling Price Expectations (November)/ Services Sentiment (November)

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (November)/ Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (November)/ Business Confidence (November)

·       Germany Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (November)/ Bavaria CPI (November)/ Brandenburg CPI (November)/ Hesse CPI (November)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (November)/ Saxony CPI (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)

·       Italy Business Confidence (November)/ Consumer Confidence (November)/ PPI (October)

·       Poland GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (October)

·       Greece Total Credit (October)

·       Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate (November)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Wholesale Prices (October)/ Parliamentary Election

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (September)/ Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (October)

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (October)/ Private Bank Lending (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (October)

·       Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (November)

Friday, November 29, 2024

Global

·       The UN celebrates the International Day of Solidarity with the Palestinian People. 

·        Today is “Black Friday” the beginning of the of the Christmas sales season.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Joe Biden is expected to visit Angola.

·       Today is “Black Friday,” the traditional beginning of the Christmas shopping season.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (October)/ Nominal Budget Balance (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Annualized Q3/ Budget Balance (September)

·       Chile Copper Production (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Manufacturing Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (October)/ Cement Production (October)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (October)

·       USA Fed Balance Sheet (November/27)

·       Mexico Fiscal Balance (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan’s parliament returns to work.  Debate gets underway as Japan's newly elected lawmakers return to the Diet after last month's snap elections. A supplementary budget bill will be among the items at the top of their agenda, with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba delivering a policy speech Friday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (November)

·       South Korea Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (October)/ Jobs/applications ratio (October)/ Tokyo CPI (November)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Consumer Confidence (November)/ Housing Starts (October)/ Construction Orders (October)

·       Australia Housing Credit (October)/ Private Sector Credit (October)/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (November)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (October)/ Export Prices (October)/ Import Prices (October)/ PPI (October)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Tourist Arrivals (November)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (October)/ Current Account (October)/ Private Consumption (October)/ Private Investment (October)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (October)

·       Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (October)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (November)/ PPI (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       India Government Budget Value (October)/ Bank Loan Growth (November/15)/ Deposit Growth (November/15)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/22)/ Infrastructure Output (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Ireland holds general elections to elect the 34th Dáil (parliament).

·       UK members of Parliament will MPs debate and vote on a bill to legalize assisted dying in England and Wales.

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Research and Space) will meet in Brussels. Ministers are expected to adopt Council conclusions on strengthening the competitiveness of the EU and overcoming the fragmentation of the European Research Area based on the experiences implementing the ERA Policy Agenda (2022-2024).  They will also adopt Council conclusions on a potential Europe-wide research and innovation initiative on advancing sustainable natural resource management, food systems security and the deployment of the bioeconomy, harnessing the potential of Central and Eastern Europe (BIOEAST, partnership). BIOEAST (the Central-Eastern European Initiative for Knowledge-based Agriculture, Aquaculture and Forestry in the Bioeconomy) was established in 2015 to establish a strategic research and innovation framework to work towards sustainable bioeconomy in Central and Eastern European countries.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a speech at the Encuentro de Economia organized by Fundació Internacional Olof Palme in Barcelona, Spain.

·       Netherlands Inflation Rate (November)

·       France Private Non-Farm Payrolls Q3

·       Germany Retail Sales (October)/ Import Prices (October)/ Unemployed Persons (November)/ Unemployment Change (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Turkey GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Financial Stability Report

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (November)/ BoE Consumer Credit (October)/ Mortgage Approvals (October)/ Mortgage Lending (October)/ M4 Money Supply (October)/ Net Lending to Individuals (October)

·       Hungary PPI (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ KOF Leading Indicators (November)

·       France Inflation Rate (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Household Consumption (October)/ PPI (October)

·       Spain Retail Sales (October)/ Current Account (September)

·       Italy Industrial Sales (September)/ Inflation Rate (November)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (November)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (November)

·       Euro Area Inflation Rate (November)/ CPI Flash (November)

·       Greece PPI (October)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Unemployment Rate Q3

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (October)

·       Ukraine Current Account (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (October)/ Private Sector Credit (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Budget Balance (October)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (November)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (October)

Saturday, November 30, 2024 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te is due to depart for a tour of Taipei's remaining Pacific allies -- the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu and Palau. His office has yet to confirm plans for potential stopovers, possibly in the U.S. The trip could elicit an angry response from China, which has exerted heavy pressure on Lai since he took office in May, with two rounds of major military drills surrounding Taiwan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Retail Sales (October)

·       China NBS Manufacturing & Non- Manufacturing PMI (November)/ NBS General PMI (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Iceland holds snap parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 1, 2024 

Global

·       Ministers from Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (Opec+) meet in Vienna, Austria.

·       South Africa takes the presidency of the G20 Presidency.

·       Today is the first day of Advent.

·       Today is the first day of the meteorological winter int the Northern Hemisphere.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Australia Commodity Prices (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Romania holds parliamentary elections.

·       Liechtenstein holds a referendum regarding a package of measures proposed by the Liechtenstein Employee Pension Foundation (SPL), directed at a state pension fund. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) leaders will meet in Kuwait to discuss regional issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

SEC Chair Gensler Makes It Official He’s Leaving As Is SEC Commissioner Lizarraga, Washington’s Favorite Parlor Game of Who Gets What Goes Full-Throttle, and Congress Makes Final, Half-Hearted Efforts at Crypto and Cannabis Legislation

November 25 - 29, 2024

Well, we made it to Thanksgiving week and wish everyone a restful, happy week ahead.  In Washington, it will be officially dead quiet but unofficially incredibly active as Nation’s Capitol’s favorite parlor game – Who is Getting Which Nomination? – is at full throttle.  Individuals and innumerable interest groups are furiously lobbying the Trump transition team behind the scenes to get their favorite candidate named to key regulatory and administration posts. 

The biggest prize for the moment is who will be named Chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission.  This past week, Chair Gary Gensler made it official by announcing he would step down on January 19, the day before the presidential inauguration.  There will also be another opening at the SEC, as Commissioner Jamie Lizarraga surprised observers by announcing he would step down on January 17. 

A number of outstanding candidates are being mentioned as the likely SEC Chair nominee, most notably former SEC Commissioner Paul Atkins (full disclosure: Paul is a friend and former colleague—we served together at the SEC under then-SEC Chair Richard Breeden).  Other names mentioned are other SEC alumni, such as Brad Bondi and Norm Champ.

Over at the besieged Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, embattled Chair Marty Gruenberg announced he, too, will step down on January 19.  But unlike Gensler, his announcement was blasted by incoming Senate Banking Committee Chair, Senator Tim Scott (R-SC), who – like most Republicans on Capitol Hill – wants him to step down now for his role in the scandals at the agency outlined by the various reports.  Scott said: “I’ve called on Martin Gruenberg to resign from the agency for almost a year – yet he’s continued to play politics at the expense of the FDIC’s employees.  This announcement is long overdue, but Chairman Gruenberg’s decision to remain in office until the last minute demonstrates his failure to accept accountability for his actions.”

No word yet on the thinking of the heads of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Rohit Chopra, or Commodities Futures Trading Commission Chair Rostin Behnam.  Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr has said he intends to stay.

There were four policy-related events of note this past week: First, Senate Agriculture Committee Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) let it be known she is working to finalize a last-minute deal on cryptocurrency legislation.  Our view: This is a waste of time and effort, as there is no time or appetite among Republicans to try to rush a bill through before the end of the year. 

Second, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) wants to push a cannabis banking reform measure in one of the year-end budget extension bills.  Again, like the Stabenow crypto effort, it has virtually zero chance of success.

Third, in testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said efforts to finalize any major bank rules before President-elect Trump takes office will not be finalized – including a much-battled over bank capital rule.

Fourth, a federal court struck down the SEC’s regulatory overhaul of the U.S. Treasury deal rules—a major blow to SEC Chair Gensler’s long-time efforts to redesign the Treasury marketplace.  This is the third federal court decision this year striking down Gensler-led rulemakings.

As we pointed out above, it will be a very quiet week in Washington this week – just a few interesting think tank and trade association events – you skip to the bottom to read all about them. 

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!  Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

U.S. Senate

·       The Senate is out of session this week for the Thanksgiving holiday.

House of Representatives

·       The House is out of session this week for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

U.S. Treasury Department

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration Wagner Labor Initiative in New York.

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

·       Sunday, November 24, 2:00 p.m. – The National Turkey Federation holds a news conference to welcome two Minnesota turkeys to the nation's capital, a day ahead of the "National Thanksgiving Turkey Presentation" for the annual "pardon" of the birds at the White House - a Thanksgiving tradition dating back to 1947 with President Truman.

Wednesday, November 27, 8:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance holds an online “Talking Policy” event with Peter Routledge, Superintendent of the Office of the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions.

Think Tanks and Other Events

·       Monday, November 25, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a virtual discussion on "Lessons from the Basel Committee's Assessments of Individual Jurisdictions."  Speakers include Stefan Ingves, Chair of the Toronto Centre and Patrick Honohan, Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute.

·       Tuesday, November 26, 11:00 a.m. – The Brookings Institution holds a virtual discussion on "China's Slowing Economy: What China is Doing About It, and What It Means for the Rest of the World."

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reads

The New and Growing Threat of Nuclear Weapons, The Challenges of U.S. – Mexican Trade Relations, and Is Bretton Woods Still Relevant?

November 22 - 24, 2024

The New Threat of Nuclear Weapons

Note: With Russian President Vladimir Putin's repeated threats to use nuclear weapons, we thought it important to focus on nuclear weapons policy, how nuclear weapons have changed, and what Russia’s actual nuclear threat looks like. We start with an excellent piece by our Scowcroft Group colleague, Frank Miller and Madelyn Creedon, two leading nuclear weapons experts.

• Deterring the Nuclear Dictators  Franklin Miller & Madelyn Creedon/Foreign Affairs

  For more than three decades after the end of the Cold War, the United States and its allies faced no serious nuclear threats. Unfortunately, that is no longer the case. Russian President Vladimir Putin has been rattling his nuclear saber in a manner reminiscent of Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev, and Chinese President Xi Jinping has directed a dramatic buildup of China’s nuclear arsenal, which has been described as “breathtaking” in size and scope. These developments pose far-reaching challenges to U.S. national security. The United States no longer has the luxury of ignoring nuclear dangers and concentrating on deterring a single adversary. But Washington’s efforts to modernize the aging U.S. nuclear deterrent have been hampered by inadequate industrial base capacity, materials and labor shortages, and funding gaps. What needs to be done is clear: the next administration should dispense with undertaking an extensive review of either the nuclear deterrence policy or the modernization plans. There is a huge need to just get on with the work of modernization and fix the problems.

• Nuclear Challenges: The Growing Capabilities of Strategic Competitors and Regional Rivalries  U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency

  Countries with mature nuclear weapons programs are increasing stockpiles and/or program capabilities. Russia, China, and North Korea are modernizing their legacy stockpiles by incorporating advanced technologies to penetrate or avoid missile defense systems. Countries are also developing nuclear weapons with smaller yields, improved precision, and increased range for military or coercive use.

• How Credible is Russia’s Evolving Nuclear Doctrine?   Steven Pifer/Brookings Institute

  Russia’s doctrine for the use of nuclear weapons has gone through several evolutions over the past 15 years. Changes in 2010 and 2020 seemed relatively benign. In September 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced additional modifications, which appear more meaningful.  These recent modifications were made while Western officials debated whether to allow Ukraine to use Western weapons to conduct strikes into Russian territory. They introduce ambiguity on when Russia might employ nuclear arms in a bid to persuade the West to stand down. But those modifications may well stretch Russian declaratory policy beyond the point of credibility.

Latin America: Focus on Mexico

• A Closing Back Door? China’s Evolving FDI Presence in Mexico  Rhodium Group

  Although it represents a relatively small portion of total foreign investment, Chinese FDI in Mexico is significantly higher than shown in official statistics. Tariff avoidance and supply chain diversification have driven a boom in Chinese investment, first in electronics and consumer goods and, lately, in the automotive sector. However, a growing gap between announced and completed investments hints at growing uncertainty around Mexico’s continued role as a back door to the US market.

• Mexico grapples with its hidden Chinese trade problem: Patchy Data Will Only Fuel US Concerns Over Its Southern Neighbor Being Used As A Trade Backdoor   Financial Times

  A Chinese tiremaker recently broke ground on a $400mn plant in central Mexico. But there will be no sign of such a Chinese project in Mexico’s inward investment data: the Sailun Tire company funding is being made through a Singaporean subsidiary. This is not unusual or a secret — the structure is outlined in the company’s press release — but it will only fuel Washington’s wariness. US-based consulting firm Rhodium Group estimated in a report this month that the stock of Chinese investment in Mexico is about six times higher than shown in official figures. With imports from China also surging, US lawmakers allege the country’s southern neighbor — and top trading partner — is increasingly being used by Beijing as a backdoor to avoid tariffs.

• Mexico Congress Takes the First Steps to Scrap Regulatory Bodies  Bloomberg

  Mexican lawmakers took the first step toward eliminating several autonomous watchdogs, including the antitrust regulator and the transparency institute, as part of a broader reform push.  The lower house of Congress on Wednesday night in a 347-128 vote approved the general text of a constitutional proposal to scrap the oversight bodies. The lawmakers approved individual articles of the bill Thursday, clearing the way for it to advance to the Senate, where the ruling coalition only needs one more vote to reach the two-thirds majority required to pass such legislation.

• Why Mexico Isn’t Panicking About Another Trump Presidency   The New York Times

  Mexico is banking on its ability to negotiate with a deal maker like Donald J. Trump, and many officials say the country is better prepared and has more leverage than it did during his first term.

Geoeconomics and Trade

• What is Bretton Woods?  The Contested Pasts and Potential Futures of International Economic Order  Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  Around the world, there is growing demand to restructure governance of the global economy. Sources of dissatisfaction with the current arrangements are varied, but many critics seem to agree on one thing: it is time for a “new Bretton Woods moment.”  Would-be reformers seek a multilateral settlement similar to the one established to manage the post- Second World War economy, which first took shape at the 1944 United Nations Financial and Monetary Conference in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire. Those demanding change come from many different corridors of power: ranging from senior U.S. officials to leading figures from developing countries and the heads of the United Nations and International Monetary Fund (IMF). There is persuasive force in calls for reform that are framed around a return to the past. The appeal to Bretton Woods conjures a period of sustained economic prosperity and relative political stability—at least among the liberal democracies of the West. More generally, embracing the authority of history anchors reform proposals on seemingly firm ground during a time of mounting international turbulence. But the call for a new Bretton Woods elides considerable disagreement. There are many competing views of the post-1945 international economic order, and each generates alternative understanding of how Bretton Woods should guide today’s proposed reforms. This paper presents an historical-analytical review of Bretton Woods, based on the assumption that a better understanding of the postwar order can inform today’s efforts to restructure governance of the global economy.

• Geopolitics and emerging market capital flows   Robin Brooks/The Brookings Institution

  The rise in geopolitical risk and mounting trade tensions should have a counterpart in financial deglobalization as investors pull back from global trouble spots. Most obviously, if friend-shoring is a material phenomenon, this should be reflected in foreign direct investment flows, with, for example, stronger flows to Mexico, while China should see weaker inflows or even outflows. A similar trend may be visible in portfolio flows if Russia’s invasion of Ukraine makes markets wary of potential conflict zones. China and Taiwan are clearly a worry here. We assemble quarterly data on nonresident portfolio and direct investment flows to 25 emerging markets (EMs) from 2000 to 2024. These data show a healthy picture for EM overall, though China is a negative outlier. China has seen nonresident portfolio inflows weaken significantly from before Russia invaded Ukraine, in addition to foreign direct investment flows also softening recently. While these data points are consistent with financial deglobalization, a proper investigation will compare flows to a counterfactual linking them to underlying fundamentals such as interest and growth differentials. We leave a more definitive assessment of financial deglobalization for a follow-up post.
  

• The Electoral Impact of Unexpected Inflation and Economic Growth  JSTOR

  This research piece supports two theoretical changes to models of comparative economic voting. The first is that the distinction between expected and unexpected components of inflation and economic growth is important. We posit that voters are primarily concerned with unexpected inflation and unexpected growth since these changes have real income effects and serve as better indicators of government competence. Empirical analyses of data from nineteen industrialized nations in 1970–94 reveal stronger electoral effects for the unexpected components of inflation and growth than for their overall levels.”

The Global Week Ahead

The G20 Meets in Brazil,  The IAEA Board of Governors Meet to Discuss Iran’s Nuclear Program, the 1000-Day Anniversary of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine, and President-elect Trump Continues to Name His Cabinet

November 17 - 24, 2024

It will be another busy week geopolitically as G20 leaders gather in Brazil for the annual G20 Summit.  While no major breakthroughs are expected at the Summit, it will be the last G20 meeting for President Joe Biden and will also lead to a number of bilateral meetings between Chinese President Xi and other leaders.

Also this week, the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency will meet in Vienna, Austria, to discuss the status of Iran’s ongoing – and accelerating – development of nuclear weapons.  IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi just returned from meetings in Iran and will report his findings to the Board.   The Board is also likely to discuss the situation in Ukraine and the risk posed to nuclear power plants in Ukraine due to Russia’s war on Ukraine.  This coming week will also mark the 1000 day since Russia’s invasion.  EU foreign ministers will meet in Brussels this week to discuss the situation, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will address the European Parliament to mark the grim milestone.

In the U.S., President-elect Donald Trump is expected to continue his rapid-fire announcements of cabinet and other senior staff picks.  So far, Trump is moving at a historically fast pace in assembling his team and is likely to push the incoming Senate to push through required confirmation votes in advance of his inauguration on January 20th (the new Congress is sworn in on January 3rd).

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, markets will be keenly focused on several major central bank speeches, including European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s remarks on Monday and Friday and the speech of the Central Bank of Japan Kazuo Ueda on Monday.

Among the major economic data reports, the U.S. Redbook is out Tuesday, initial jobless claims are out Thursday, and the Michigan Consumer Report is out Friday.  In Europe, UK consumer confidence figures and retail sales are out Friday.  In Asia, Japan releases trade balance figures on Wednesday and inflation data on Thursday.

Below is what else we are watching closely around the world this coming week:

Sunday, November 17, 2024

Global

·       The G20 Leaders’ Summit takes place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron visits Argentina.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China FDI (YTD) (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier gives a speech at parliament on Remembrance Day attended by his Romanian counterpart Klaus Iohannis in Berlin, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 1st Est Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Senegal holds snap parliamentary elections.

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Nigeria.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, November 18, 2024 

Global

·       The G20 Leaders’ Summit begins in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

·       The Council of the International Maritime Organization meets in London.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the protection of civilians in Sudan. Afterwards, it is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East. In the afternoon at 3:30 p.m., it is scheduled to hold a briefing on the maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine.

·       The International Atomic Energy Commissions holds is quarterly Board of Governors meeting in Vienna, Austria.  The main focus of their meeting is expected to be Iran’s ongoing development of nuclear weapons.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee to give welcome remarks before the Financial Markets Group Fall Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

·       Chile Current Account Q3/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Canada Housing Starts (October)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (September)

·       USA NAHB Housing Market Index (November)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (September)/ Foreign Bond Investment (September)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (September)

·       Colombia GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Hong Kong's Monetary Authority hosts its third Global Financial Leaders' Investment Summit, bringing together Wall Street dealmakers and investors. It is Hong Kong's flagship event for courting global capital, as the city seeks to maintain its international financial hub status amid geopolitical tensions between China and the West.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo gives a speech in Nagoya, Japan.

·       New Zealand Services & Composite NZ PCI (October)/ PPI Input & Output Q3

·       Japan Machinery Orders (September)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Thailand GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production (October)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Services PMI (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels. EU Foreign affairs ministers will discuss the state of affairs in Ukraine, Georgia, EU-US relations, the situation in the Middle East, and the Horn of Africa.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will receive the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Germany, Annalena Baerbock, at his official residence in Brussels.  He will also meet with the Prime Minister of Romania, Marcel Ciolacu, at NATO Headquarters in Brussels.

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels. The ministers will discuss the situation of agricultural markets and commodities, a recurring topic on the Council's agenda. In this context, the presidency will also present an 'other business' item on the outcome of the sectoral debates it organized on the current challenges facing the different agricultural sectors and their future perspectives.  The Ukrainian Minister for Agrarian Policy and Food, Vitalii Koval, is expected to join the ministers prior to their discussion and to address the Council.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU ministers in Budapest responsible for demographic issues through November 19.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a speech on "Les enjeux économiques et humains d'une ère en mutation" at the "Les Essentiels des Bernardins" in Paris, France

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives the opening speech at the 27th Euro Finance Week "Setting the course for 2025" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the SUERF Marjolin lecture at the conference “Inflation, Inflation Expectations, and Policy: New Perspectives” organized by Banca d’Italia in Rome, Italy.

·       Switzerland Industrial Production Q3

·       Euro Area / Balance of Trade (September)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (September)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (October)

·       Belarus GDP (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)/ M3 Money Supply (October)

Tuesday, November 19, 2024 

Global

·       The G20 Summit continues in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

·       Today is the 1000 day since Russia invaded Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In the House of Representatives, Democrats will vote on their leadership.

·       A judge in New York will consider dismissing charges against President-elect Trump over hush money payments.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Inflation Rate (October)/ CPI Median (October)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (October)

·       USA Building Permits Prel (October)/ Housing Starts (October)/ Redbook (November/16)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (November/15)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       A Hong Kong court is due to hand down sentences in the city's biggest national security trial. The case concerns the so-called Hong Kong 47 -- nearly four dozen democrats who were charged for holding unofficial primaries in July 2020 to select candidates for the city's Legislative Council election. Of the group, 45 were convicted of "conspiracy to commit subversion" under the strict national security law Beijing forced upon the city four years ago. The sentences, which could be as severe as life in prison, will be followed the next day by the resumption of another closely watched trial -- that of jailed pro-democracy media tycoon Jimmy Lai.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia RBA Meeting Minutes

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (November/19)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky addresses special session of European Parliament from Kyiv marking the 1000 day of the Ukraine War.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will participate in a meeting of the Foreign Affairs Council of the European Union (EU) in Defence Ministers’ format. The meeting will take place at the Europa building of the Council of the EU, in Brussels.

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss the upcoming December European Council, the annual rule of law dialogue, and other issues.

·       Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey appears before parliament's Treasury Committee.

·       There will be a National Farmers Union rally in London, protesting about new government policies, in particular applying inheritance tax to agricultural land.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives a speech at the 10th Green Finance Forum "Innovate in nature" during 27th Euro Finance Week "Setting the course for 2025" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (October)

·       Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (October)

·       Euro Area Current Account (September)/ Inflation Rate Final (October)/ CPI Final (October)/ Labour Cost Index Flash Q3

·       Italy Current Account (September)

·       Hungry Deposit Interest Rate (November)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel holds local elections for people in areas close to the border of Gaza and Lebanon who were unable to vote in February.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, November 20, 2024 

Global

·       The International Network of AI Safety Institute meets in San Francisco to discuss global safety issues around artificial intelligence will take place. The network members include Australia, Canada, the EU, France, Japan, Kenya, South Korea, Singapore, the UK and the US.

·       The UN Security Council holds closed-door meeting on Lebanon.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazilian President Lula will hold bilateral meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

·       Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visits Argentina for meetings with President Javier Milei.

·       French President Emmanuel Macron visits Chile.

·        India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Guyana.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Approach to Agency Policymaking” at The Forum Club of the Palm Beaches, West Palm Beach, Florida.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (November/15)/ MBA Purchase Index (November/15)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (November/15)/ EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change (November/15)/ EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change (November/15)

·       Colombia Imports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (October)/ Leading Indicator (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Defense ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meet in Laos for talks, as they consider new members for the bloc's expanded defense meeting platform, known as the ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting-Plus (ADMM-Plus). The platform currently has eight non-ASEAN members -- Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, Russia, South Korea and the U.S. -- while France, Canada and the U.K. have expressed interest in joining.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (October)

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (October)

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (November)

·       Kazakhstan Business Confidence Q3

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (October)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate (November)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (October)/ Current Account Q3

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russia’s Upper House of parliament begins considering a law banning promotion of childless lifestyles.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the welcoming address at the ECB conference on financial stability and macroprudential policy 2024 in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives the dinner speech at the ECB conference on financial stability and macroprudential policy 2024 in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden gives a speech on monetary policy at the University of Leeds.

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (November)/ Residential Property Prices (September)

·       Germany PPI (October)

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (October)/ PPI Input & Output (October)/ Retail Price Index (October)

·       Euro Area ECB Financial Stability Review/ Construction Output (September)/ Negotiated Wage Growth Q3

·       Greece Current Account (September)

·       Italy Construction Output (September)

·       Russia PPI (October)

·       Slovakia Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (October)

·       Oman Inflation Rate (October)

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (November)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Southern Africa regional bloc, the South Africa Development Community Summit, will hold a summit to discuss the post-electoral crisis in Mozambique.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (October)/ Business Confidence Q4/ Retail Sales (September)

Thursday, November 21, 2024

Global

·       The BRICS International Municipal Forum Economic Congress meets in St. Petersburg, Russia.

·       The UN Security Council meets on Syria.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Washington Post holds its 3rd Annual Global Women’s Summit in Washington, D.C.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will give a speech on “Banks and Artificial Intelligence” at the 2024 FinRegLab AI Symposium in Washington, D.C.

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack to participate in conversation before the 2024 Financial Stability Conference: Emerging Risks in a Time of Interconnectedness and Innovation, hosted by the Cleveland Fed and the Office of Financial Research.

·       Mexico Retail Sales (September)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (October)/ PPI (October)/ Raw Materials Prices (October)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (November/16)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index/ Employment/ New Orders/ Prices Paid/ Business Conditions/ Manufacturing Index (November)/ Existing Home Sales (October)/ CB Leading Index (October)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (November/15)/ Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Index (November)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (November/20)/ Fed Balance Sheet (November/20)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (November)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (October)

·       Paraguay PPI (October)

·       Peru Current Account Q3/GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Defense ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meet in Laos for talks, as they consider new members for the bloc's expanded defense meeting platform, known as the ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting-Plus (ADMM-Plus). The platform currently has eight non-ASEAN members -- Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, Russia, South Korea and the U.S. -- while France, Canada and the U.K. have expressed interest in joining.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo speaks at the Paris Europlace Financial Forum 2024 being held in Tokyo.

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (November/16)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (November/16)

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (October)

·       Indonesia Current Account Q3

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (October)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Brussels.  They will discuss the future of the EU’s trade policy.

·       Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets other officials to discuss Caspian sea cooperation in Moscow.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives the welcoming
remarks at the Euro Cyber Resilience Board for pan-European Financial Infrastructures meeting (ECRB) in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will give the keynote speech at the CEBRA International Finance and Macroeconomics conference "The Role of Central Banks and International Financial Institutions in the Transition Towards a Low-Carbon Economy" in Luxembourg.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a policy panel at 27th Annual Research Conference “The Macroeconomic Effects of Geopolitical Uncertainty” organized by De Nederlandsche Bank in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives a speech at the University of Cyprus in Nicosia, Cyprus.

·       Netherlands Consumer Confidence (November)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

·       European Union New Car Registrations (October)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (November)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending & Borrowing Rate (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/15)

·       Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing (October)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (November)

·       France Business Confidence (November)/ Business Climate Indicator (November)

·       Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash (November)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (November)/ PPI (October)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (October)

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (October)/ Total Credit Growth (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (September)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, November 22, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canada hosts Nato parliamentary assembly annual session in Montreal, featuring 281 parliament members from 32 Nato member states addressing topics on the Euro-Atlantic Defence and security agenda.

·       The Halifax International Security Forum begins in Halifax and runs through November 24.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman gives a speech on Artificial Intelligence at the 27th Annual Symposium on Building the Financial System of the 21st Century in Washington, D.C.

·       Chile PPI (October)

·       Mexico GDP Growth Rate Final Q3/ Economic Activity (September)/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (November)

·       Canada Retail Sales (September)

·       USA S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations/ Current Conditions/ Inflation Expectations Final (November)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (November/22)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Judo Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)

·       Japan Inflation Rate (October)/ Jibun Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)

·       Singapore Current Account Q3/ Inflation Rate (October)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (October)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (October)

·       India HSBC Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/15)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Belarus Foreign Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov hosts Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov for bilateral meetings.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the keynote speech at the 34th European Banking Congress "Out of the Comfort Zone: Europe and the New World Order" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks at the Foro Observatorio Económico organized by El Confidencial/MAPFRE in Madrid, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen participates in a fireside chat at the JPMorgan European Financials Conference in London, UK.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates on Panel 3 "Monetary policy" at colloquium in honor of Claudio Borio in Basel, Switzerland.

·       Great Britain GfK Consumer Confidence (November)/ Retail Sales (October)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)

·       Germany GDP Growth Rate Final Q3/ HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (September)

·       Turkey Tourist Arrivals (October)

·       France HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)

·       Poland M3 Money Supply (October)

·       Slovakia Current Account (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana PPI (October)

·       Nigeria Balance of Trade (July)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Balance of Trade (September)

Saturday, November 23, 2024 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Ukraine holds International Holodomor Memorial Day, commemorating the estimated  7 to 10 million people killed during the 1932-33 Holodomor (“murder by hunger”).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The 2024 African Economic Conference will be held in Gaborone, Botswana, to explore ways to secure Africa’s economic future.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, November 24, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Uruguay holds presidential runoff elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Romania holds presidential elections. Surveys show that the current leading candidates are not backed by the governing Social Democrats (PSD) and the Liberals (PNL).  PSD and PNL will likely agree on a joint candidate ahead of the vote, with current Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu of the PSD being the most likely candidate. A second round will be held on 8 December.

·       Switzerland holds a vote on two referendums including one the 13th OASI pension payment – adding a 13th month of pension payments. And one raising the retirement age this year.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Guinea Bissau holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

Is SEC Chair Gensler Stepping Down Next Week? The Senate Judiciary Committee Finally Holds a Hearing on Visa/Mastercard, and the House Financial Services Committee Hauls Up All the Prudential Regulators for One Last Hearing

November 18 - 22, 2024

The Trump Transition is off to a record pace of naming new cabinet secretaries and senior White House staff, but no financial regulator has been named yet.  We would note that the closest to a regulator being named was the surprise announcement that former SEC Chair Jay Clayton is being nominated as the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York—the U.S. Prosecutor with the most oversight of Wall Street.

But it appears the first of the sitting financial regulators is getting ready to go.  SEC Chair Gary Gensler strongly hinted he would submit his resignation letter in the next week or so with a timeline for departing the building in early January.  We guess most other regulators will follow suit in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, Congress is spicing up things in the coming week with two hearings of note.  The first is the long-awaited/much-delayed Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on the “duopoly” of Visa and Mastercard.  Senate Judiciary Committee Dick Durbin (D-IL) has been trying to schedule this hearing for the better part of the year and now is getting his wish with only a few weeks left in this Congress.  As of Sunday afternoon, there are no announced witnesses yet, which suggests to us there is still a tug-of-war going on between the Committee and Visa and Mastercard as to who – if anyone – from the two firms will testify. 

We note that this hearing will likely have some bearing on the pending Capitol One/Discovery merger and be mentioned frequently in the hearing, as proponents of the deal argue that approving the merger will help break up that supposed “duopoly.” 

Also, this coming week, the House Financial Services Committee is holding an oversight hearing, which is supposed to include all the prudential regulators.  While no witnesses are listed for this hearing, either, our guess is Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michael Barr, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu, and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Chair Marty Gruenberg would be most likely the witnesses – but the question is: will Gruenberg show?  He’s been dodging the committee since the independent report was released, showing his culpability in allowing and even contributing to a highly abusive workplace at the FDIC.  And he claims he will step down when the Senate confirms a replacement.  But at this point, we do not see the nominee, Christy Goldsmith Romero, getting confirmed, and we will likely have to wait until President-elect Trump nominates someone – which could be months away.

Below are all the other major regulatory events we are tracking in the coming week.  Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

·       Tuesday, November 19, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing on "Breaking the Visa-Mastercard Duopoly: Bringing Competition and Lower Fees to the Credit Card System."

·       Wednesday, November 20, 2:00 p.m. – The Senate Banking Committee’s Economic Subcommittee will hold a hearing entitled “Tax Policy in 2025: Implications for the American Economy.”

House of Representatives

·       Wednesday, November 20, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing entitled “Oversight of Prudential Regulators.”

Joint Committees

Tuesday, November 19, 2:30 p.m. – The Joint Economic Committee holds a hearing on "Building on the Success of TCJA (Tax Cuts and Jobs Act): The 2025 Tax Policy Debate."

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

·       Wednesday, November 20, 11:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech entitled “Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” at the UVA Economics Presents: A Conversation with Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook and Dean Christa Acampora, Charlottesville, Virginia.

·       Wednesday, November 20, 12:15 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Approach to Agency Policymaking” at The Forum Club of the Palm Beaches, West Palm Beach, Florida.

·       Thursday, November 21, 4:40 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will give a speech on “Banks and Artificial Intelligence” at the 2024 FinRegLab AI Symposium in Washington, D.C.

·       Friday, November 22, 6:15 pm. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman gives a speech on Artificial Intelligence at the 27th Annual Symposium on Building the Financial System of the 21st Century in Washington, D.C.

U.S. Treasury Department

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

·       Wednesday, November 20, 11:00 a.m. – The SEC, along with the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board (MSRB), and FINRA holds a Joint Compliance Outreach Program for Municipal Market Participants. The event is being held both virtually and in person in Denver, Colorado.

·       Thursday, November 21, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

·       Tuesday, November 19, 9:30 a.m. CT – Chairman Rostin Behnam will give a keynote address and fireside chat at FIA’s Futures & Options Expo in Chicago, Illinois.

·       Tuesday, November 20, 1:40 p.m. CT – Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will speak on a panel titled “Impact of Technology and Modernization of Clearing” at the Futures Industry Association (FIA) Futures & Options Expo 2024 in Chicago, Illinois.

·       Wednesday, November 20, 2:00 p.m. CT – Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will speak on a panel titled “24/7 Trading: Are We Ready?” at the Futures Industry Association (FIA) Futures & Options Expo 2024 in Chicago, Illinois.

·       Thursday, November 21, 9:30 a.m. – The CFTC’s Global Markets Advisory Committee will meet. The meeting will be open to the public via live webcast or listen-only audio feed via telephone. You can find the agenda HERE.

·       Thursday, November 21, 4:20 p.m. – CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam will participate in a fireside chat at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

·       Thursday, November 21, 10:00 a.m. – The Board of the NCUA will hold a meeting.

·       Friday, November 22, 10:00 a.m. – The NCUA holds a Public Budget Briefing.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

·       Monday, November 18, 5:30 p.m. – FTC Commissioner Alvaro Bedoya will give a speech entitled “The FTC and Worker Surveillance” at the New York University

Farm Credit Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

·       Monday – Thursday, November 18 – 20 – The Futures Industry Association holds its 2024 Expo in Chicago, Illinois.

·       Tuesday, November 19, 2:00 p.m. – SIFMA will hold a virtual Industry Briefing on the U.S. Treasury Clearing Report.

·       Thursday, November 21, 11:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance will hold an online event entitled “Artificial Intelligence in Latin America and the Caribbean.” The event will be held in Spanish.

·        

Think Tanks and Other Events

·       Tuesday, November 19, 9:15 a.m. – The Brookings Institution will hold a event entitled “What will tax policy look like in the new Trump administration?” in Washington, D.C.

·       Tuesday, November 19, 1:00 p.m. – The Bipartisan Policy Center holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 1 p.m., on "Preservation: An Essential Response to the Housing Affordability Challenge."

·       Wednesday & Thursday, November 20 – 21 – The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research holds its 13th annual Housing Center Conference, November 20-21.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reads

Latin America Holds the Key to Critical Mineral Needs, What Does Secretary of State-Designate Marco Rubio Have to Say About Latin America? And Just How Successful Has China’s Belt & Road Been?

November 15 - 17, 2024

Latin America

• Latin America: The World’s Copper Stronghold   Center For Strategic and International Studies

  In this interactive report, CSIS points out that copper is vital to U.S. national, economic, and energy security. Everything—from clean energy technologies, electronics, and automotives to power transmission infrastructure, data centers, and defense systems—depends on copper.  However, the United States only mines 5 percent of the world’s copper.  Latin America, which cumulatively mines nearly half (46 percent) of the world’s raw copper—the largest share of any continent—holds significant potential as a sourcing partner. Chile and Peru have the two largest copper reserves globally. 

• What Marco Rubio Has Said About Latin America  Americas Quarterly

  President-elect Donald Trump has nominated Florida Senator Marco Rubio for Secretary of State, making him potentially the first Latino to hold the position. The three-term senator, a son of Cuban immigrants, was born in Miami and was highly influential on Latin America policy during Trump’s first administration.  That influence is now likely to grow. He has consistently spoken out against dictatorships in Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua. He has also criticized some of Latin America’s leftist leaders for their positions on Venezuela and China’s presence in the region.  Here is a selection of some of Rubio’s recent statements on Latin America.

• Boosting US-Japan Cooperation with Latin America in Critical and Frontier Sectors   Wilson Center’s Latin America Program

  As they recover from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, Latin American and

  Caribbean countries are facing a pivotal moment in their economic development. Many Latin American governments are beset by longstanding and emerging challenges, caught between rival global powers and weighed down by a daunting infrastructure deficit, a growing digital divide, high debt, low growth, and the intensifying effects of a changing climate. Looking ahead, cooperation with key extrarational partners, especially those committed to strengthening governance and accountability, will be fundamental to economic growth and sustainable development.  In this context, the United States and Japan will be potentially decisive actors. Both have separately committed to advancing the region’s economic development and, importantly, to promoting transparency and good governance. Japanese finance and investment in the region have grown (see Figure 1) as part of the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s “Juntos” policy, which promoted enhanced engagement across the region. At the same time, Japan has emphasized the links between democracy and development, what it calls the “two D’s.”

Africa

• Banking on the diaspora   OFIF

  As countries across Africa grapple with the challenge of mobilizing resources for critical development initiatives, an increasingly popular financial instrument has emerged as a promising solution – diaspora bonds. Designed to tap into the substantial savings and investment potential of citizens living abroad, these bonds offer governments, project sponsors and corporations an opportunity to diversify funding sources through what’s known as a ‘diasporic discount’, enabling domestic entities to borrow at below-market rates with extended maturities. The timing couldn’t be better. According to World Bank data, annual remittance inflows to Africa in 2023 amounted to $90.3bn, or approximately 259% of the continent’s gross domestic product. And this figure is expected to rise further in 2024. It is the second highest after Asia, where remittance inflows as a share of GDP come to 278%.  Channeling these flows through purpose-specific bonds serves a dual purpose: it deepens often underdeveloped financial markets while broadening the retail investor base.

China

• China’s Belt & Road Initiative: How Successful Has It Been?   Hinrich Foundation

  Assessing the success of BRI requires a comprehensive examination of its financial investments, opportunity costs, and role in augmenting China’s global influence. Over the past decade, China's substantial increase in overseas assets, coupled with significant expenditure on industrial subsidies, amounts to an estimated cost of roughly 1.5% of China’s gross domestic product (GDP) annually. When factoring in indirect financial costs, such as international subsidies and geopolitical tensions, this conservative estimate increases to approximately 1.7% of GDP.  Despite BRI's success in reshaping global trade dynamics and enhancing China's footprint in the global South, it has also triggered geopolitical pushback and skepticism from Western powers. The shifting attitudes toward China among Western elites, alongside China's continued economic reliance on democratic nations, cast doubt on the long-term efficacy of BRI in fulfilling China's strategic goals.

• The Belt and Road Isn’t Dead.  It’s Evolving    Foreign Policy

  Chinese President Xi Jinping visits Peru this week for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, during which he will inaugurate the deep-water port of Chancay, about 45 miles north of Lima. It’s a $3.6 billion project—one of China’s largest infrastructure investments in the region in the past two decades.  It also may be one of the last of its kind.

• Beijing Has Already Prepared for Trump’s Return    Foreign Policy

  As U.S. President-elect Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House, global observers watch with a mix of nervousness and caution. Conversations with Chinese academics, economists, and policy insiders reveal a far more nuanced outlook as Beijing dissects the implications of a second Trump presidency. Trump’s 2016 victory caught Beijing off guard, triggering a scramble to recalibrate. But four years of navigating tariffs, tech restrictions, and trade tensions have given Chinese President Xi Jinping and his advisors a deeper understanding of the U.S. president’s playbook.