Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis, as well as book recommendations, travel observations, and cultural experiences - all of which we hope will be of interest to you.

Francis Kelly 10/6/24 Francis Kelly 10/6/24

The Global Week Ahead

The Sad Anniversary of Hamas’ Murderous Assault on Israel, Biden Travels to Germany and Angola, US Supreme Court Begins its Autumn Term, and Germany’s Foreign Minister to Travel to China

October 6 - 13, 2024

Monday is the one-year anniversary of Hamas' surprise attack on Israel, killing more than 1,200 people and taking hundreds more hostage, changing the security situation in the greater Middle East and leading to war in Gaza and now in Lebanon against Hezbollah. Markets are now bracing for an Israeli retaliatory strike on Iran after Iran attacked Israel with another rocket attack this past week. The biggest question is whether Israel will attack Iran's nuclear facilities. Will be sending updates as the situation progresses this week.

Also this week, President Joe Biden will travel to Germany for a US president's first official state visit in almost four decades. While in Germany, Biden will chair a meeting of NATO state leaders to discuss the situation in Ukraine and likely address the issue of whether Ukraine will be allowed to use NATO-supplied weapons to proactively attack Russian targets inside Russia – something which Moscow has said would be a dramatic provocation. Russian President Vladimir Putin has – again – suggested the use of nuclear weapons. Still, most experts we have spoken to do not believe he will use them and instead ramp up asymmetric attacks on Western targets, impacting market operations (e.g., cyberattacks, cutting critical communication cables, etc.).

Biden will travel from Germany to Angola. He is following up on a promise he made to African leaders in 2022 that he would visit Africa and seek to shore up relations with the continent.

Elsewhere in the world, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is expected to travel to China this week to discuss the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East. She is also expected to discuss the EU's ongoing deliberations to effectively block Chinese Electric Vehicles (EVs) from being imported to China – a hot-button issue between China and the EU.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, Markets are looking at the US September CPI figures released this week after the surprise uptick in employment numbers last week. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee meeting minutes and the Michigan consumer survey for October are out this week.

In Europe, the European Central Bank's meeting minutes are also being released this week. The UK releases GDP numbers, while Germany releases factory orders, industrial production, and trade figures—all closely watched to see if Germany is beginning to pull out of its economic doldrums. France will present its 2025 budget this week, which will be important as the fragile political coalition could be impacted.

This week in Asia, China returns from its week-long Golden Week holiday, and the country's stock exchanges reopen. It also releases CPOI and PPI figures. Japan releases its Monthly Labor Survey, Economy Watchers Survey, and PPI figures—all important figures to watch as Japan prepares for snap parliamentary elections on October 27.

Below is what else we are tracking around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, October 6, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Brazil holds local elections, including for Mayor of Sao Paulo.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In Kazakhstan, a referendum on the construction of a nuclear power plant (NPP) will be held. Opinion polling indicates that the most likely scenario will be a vote in favor of constructing the plant. If approved, it will help Kazakhstan's domestic electricity supply challenges and reduce its dependence on both fossil fuels and electricity imports from abroad.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Industrial Production (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (September)/ Foreign Direct Investment (September)

· Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· London is bracing for a large protest in support of Palestinians.

· Bosnia and Herzegovina will hold local elections.

· In Italy, Matteo Salvini's League holds an annual meeting in Pontida.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Tunisia will hold a presidential election. President Kais Saied will almost certainly win as opposition parties are boycotting the election.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 7, 2024

Global

· Today is the one-year anniversary of Hamas’ assault on Israel, murdering more than 1,200 people and the taking of hundreds of civilian hostages, many of whom have been subsequently murdered.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Supreme Court begins its fall session. They will hear cases dealing with online pornography, transgender rights, and nuclear waste storage.

· A Colombian Court will hear evidence against ex-president Alvaro Uribe on bribery and fraud charges.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman will speak at the Independent Bankers Association of Texas (IBAT) Annual Convention in San Antonio, Texas.

· Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Bank Holding Company Association (BHCA) Fall Seminar.

· St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy and participates in moderated conversation before the Money Marketeers of New York University Inc.

· Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

· Colombia Exports (August)/ Inflation Rate (September)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (September)

· USA Consumer Credit Change (August)/ Used Car Prices (September)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· El Salvador Inflation Rate (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Leaders of the ASEAN bloc meet for a three-day summit in the Laotian capital, Vientiane, to discuss economic and security issues. Japan's newly appointed prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, also joins the meeting to talk about East Asia's role in the Southeast Asian club of 10 nations. More than 1,000 CEOs and senior executives along with world leaders will attend.

. Pakistan is bracing for nationwide protests to mark the one-year anniversary of the start of the Israel-Hamas conflict. The anti-Israel demonstrations are being held by the Muslim-majority nation's major Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami.

· South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol visits Southeast Asia, stopping in the Philippines and Singapore. In the city-state, he is slated to attend a business forum highlighting economic cooperation and is also expected to speak on issues including Korean unification at a separate lecture.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (September)

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (September)

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Thailand Inflation Rate (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Japan Coincident Index Prel (August)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (August)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· China Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Philippines Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is expected to visit China for meetings. She is expected to discuss the ongoing EU deliberations on EV tariffs and the situation in Ukraine and the Mideast.

· The Eurogroup meets in Luxembourg. They are scheduled to discuss a recovery plan for Europe, the situation in Ukraine, EU energy policy, and the upcoming G20 finance ministers and central bank governors, climate finance, tax policy, and pending legislative proposals dealing with digital finance and capital markets union.

· The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Council of Foreign Ministers will meet in Moscow.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a speech at the Deutsche Bundesbank's symposium, "Future of payments: trends and innovations in Germany and Europe," in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane will give a keynote at the ECB Conference on Monetary Policy: bridging science and practice in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Germany Factory Orders (August)

· Romania Retail Sales (August)

· Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (September)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (September)

· Hungary Balance of Trade Prel (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

· France Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Slovakia Retail Sales (August)

· Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Euro Area Retail Sales (August)

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ Vehicle Sales (September)

· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Business Confidence (September)

· Jordan GDP Growth Rate Q2/ PPI (August)

· Qatar Balance of Trade (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The African Oil Week conference will kick off in Cape Town, South Africa.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Tuesday, October 8, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Great Lakes region, followed by consultations.

· The United Nations Human Rights Council will meet to discuss Honduras and Haiti.

· The IMF releases its World Economic Outlook.

· The United Nations International Conference on Victims of Terrorism co-organized by the United Nations Office of Counter-Terrorism (UNOCT) and the Kingdom of Spain will take place on 8 and 9 October 2024 at Palacio de Congresos Europa in Vitoria-Gasteiz, Spain.

· The 7th Vienna Energy Security Dialogue takes place in Vienna, Austria.

· BRICS Senior Health officials will meet in Moscow through October 9 in advance of the BRICS Health Ministers this week.

· The 11th Meeting of Heads of BRICS Intellectual Property Agencies meets in Moscow through October 9.

· The BRICS Think Tank Network for Finance Conference will be held in Moscow (in person and via video).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Latin American and Caribbean Competition Forum begins in Santa Domingo, The Dominican Republic.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson will give a speech on “The Discount Window: 1913-2000” at Davidson, College, Davidson, North Carolina.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler will give a speech on Global Inflation at the European Central Bank Conference on Monetary Policy 2024, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic gives remarks and participates in moderated conversation on the economic outlook before the Atlanta consular corps luncheon.

· Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins speaks before the 23rd annual Regional & Community Bankers Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (September)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Redbook (October/05) / RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (October)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/04)

· Chile Inflation Rate (September)

· Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Brazil Car Production (September)

· Argentina Industrial Production (August)

· Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Regional election results are scheduled in India's northern Jammu and Kashmir region. They were the first polls in the former state -- now a federally-governed territory -- in about a decade and came five years after Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government scrapped its special autonomy status.

· China’s stock exchange reopens after a weeklong holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Current Account (August)

· Japan Average Cash Earnings (August)/ Household Spending (August)/ Overtime Pay (August)/ Current Account (August)

· Australia NAB Business Confidence (September)/ RBA Meeting Minutes/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (September)

· Philippines Unemployment Rate (August)/ Industrial Production (August)

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (September)

· Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU’s Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg. Theya re expected to discuss a recovery plan for Europe, the situation in Ukraine, EU energy policy, and the upcoming G20 finance ministers and central bank governors, climate finance, tax policy, and pending legislative proposals dealing with digital finance and capital markets union.

· NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will meet with Finland’s President, Alexander Stubb, in Brussels.

· The European Parliament will debate the state of Georgia’s declining democracy, Russian attempts to interfere in Moldova’s presidential elections and the situation in Sudan with EU foreign policy chief Borrell. Resolutions on Georgia and Moldova will be put to a vote on Wednesday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will chair the keynote session at the ECB Conference on Monetary Policy: bridging science and practice in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul will give the keynote speech and participate in a fireside chat at the S&P Global Ratings European Financial Institutions Conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (September)

· Germany Industrial Production (August)

· France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account (August)

· Greece Balance of Trade (August)

· Hungary Budget Balance (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Tourist Arrivals (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Kenya Interest Rate Decision

· Mozambique Presidential Election

Wednesday, October 9, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) followed by consultations.

· G7 Health Ministers meet through October 11 in Ancona, Italy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook will give remarks on “Entrepreneurship and Innovation” at the Women for Women Summit presented by the College of Charleston School of Business, Charleston, South Carolina.

· The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank’s Payments Symposium will be held Chicago. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Richmond Fed President, and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Meister are scheduled to speak.

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic gives welcome remarks before the Greater Atlanta Home Builders Association monthly meeting.

· Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan speaks on the current state of the economy before the Future of Global Energy Conference presented by Shell USA, Inc. and co-hosted by the Greater Houston Partnership.

· Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins speaks before the Worcester Regional Research Bureau 39th Annual Meeting.

· San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in moderated conversation on monetary policy and the economic outlook at Boise State University.

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (October/04) /Wholesale Inventories (August)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/04) / / FOMC Minutes released

· Brazil Inflation Rate (September)

· Mexico Inflation Rate (September)

· Peru Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan will formally dissolve its lower house ahead of snap elections to be held on Oct. 27, when newly elected Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) look to strengthen their numbers in parliament. Ishiba was elected LDP leader -- and became the country's newest prime minister -- as Fumio Kishida opted not to vie for another term in Japan's top job.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (October)

· New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

· Indonesia Retail Sales (August)

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (September)

· India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio

· Kazakhstan PPI (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU employment, social policy, and health ministers in Budapest, Hungary through October 10.

UK onservative MPs start voting to determine the final two candidates vying to become the party’s next leader, after Rishi Sunak announced his resignation in the wake of the party’s heavy general election defeat. The outcome is announced tomorrow. Party members will then vote on these two options

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will participate in a session entitled "The true cost of greening the world" at IUCN Leaders Forum 2024 "Harnessing innovation, enabling conversation" in Geneva, Switzerland.

· Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (August)

· Ireland Industrial Production (August)

· Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· France New Car Registrations (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Interest Rate Decision/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Jordan Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Mozambique holds presidential and parliamentary elections. Daniel Chapo is the presidential candidate for the governing Liberation Front of Mozambique (Frelimo) and is highly likely to be elected president.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Tanzania Inflation Rate (September)

Thursday, October 10, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to have a private meeting on Somalia, and in the afternoon a TCC meeting on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO).

· The G7 holds a Ministerial meeting on Industry and Technological Innovation in Rome, Italy.

· The 4th Meeting of BRICS Deputy Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors takes place through October 11 in Moscow.

· The 14th Meeting of BRICS Health Ministers will take place through October 11 in Moscow.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Biden will travel to Germany for the first state visit of a US president in four decades. He will meet with Chancellor Olaf Scholz and President Frank-Walter Steinmeier. Additionally, Biden will lead a summit on the Ukraine War at the US airbase in Ramstein. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin participates in fireside chat,"2025 Economic Outlook and Beyond" before the Virginia Maritime Association 2024 International Trade Symposium.

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives remarks and participates in a moderated discussion on the economic outlook and monetary policy before event organized by Binghamton University.

· USA Inflation Rate (September)/ CPI (September)/ Initial Jobless Claims (October/05) / EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/04)/ 15 & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/09)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October)/9

· Mexico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Argentina Inflation Rate (September)

· Peru Interest Rate Decision

· Brazil Retail Sales (August)

· Ecuador Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Taiwan celebrates its National Day, with new President Lai Ching-te due to mark the occasion with a speech. With tensions with China at very tense levels, comments being made in Taipei will be closely watched.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Bank Lending (September)/ Foreign Bond Investment (October/05)/ PPI (September)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (October/05)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (September)

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (October)/ Private House Approvals MoM Final (August)/ Building Permits MoM Final (August)

· Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Malaysia Unemployment Rate (August)

· Indonesia Motorbike Sales (September)/ Car Sales (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· EU Justice and Home Affairs Council ministers will meet in Luxembourg through October 11. They will discuss fighting child sexual abuse, Schengen, EU law enforcement IT systems, asylum and migration, and internal security.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Ms. Maia Sandu, President of Moldova, regarding joining the EU.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (September)

· Romania Balance of Trade (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

· Hungary Inflation Rate (September)

· Slovakia Industrial Production (August)

· Turkey Industrial Production (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Participation Rate (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/04)

· Italy Industrial Production (August)

· Slovenia Industrial Production (August)

· Greece Inflation Rate (September)

· Ireland Inflation Rate (September)

· Serbia Interest Rate Decision

· Euro Area ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

· Ukraine Inflation Rate (September)

· Belarus Inflation Rate (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Gold Production (August)/ Mining Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)

· Egypt Inflation Rate (September)

· Mozambique Inflation Rate (September)

Friday, October 11, 2024

Global

· The Nobel Peace Prize winner is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank’s Community Bankers Symposium will be held in Chicago. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will speak along with Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman will give remarks on community banking at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Community Bankers Symposium (Virtual).

· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee gives opening remarks before the 18th Annual Community Bankers Symposium, “Community Banking: Navigating a Change Landscape" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

· Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan participates in panel before the Federal Home Loan Bank of Dallas Women in Financial Services Conference.

· Mexico Industrial Production (August)

· Canada Unemployment Rate (September)/ Participation Rate (September)/ BoC Business Outlook Survey

· USA PPI (September)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (October)/ Michigan Current Conditions Prel (October)/ WASDE Report/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/11)

· Colombia Consumer Confidence (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Macao will hold a leadership election with just one candidate, former top court president Sam Hou-fai. Only the roughly 400 pro-Beijing members of an election committee are allowed to vote. Sam recently described the development of the casino industry, which powers Macao's economy, as "disorderly" and "barbaric.”

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (September)/ Food Inflation (September)/ Visitor Arrivals (August)

· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (October)/ Machine Tool Orders (September)

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (July)

· South Korea Interest Rate Decision

· Malaysia Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

· Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/04)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)

· China Vehicle Sales (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany Inflation Rate Final (September)/ Current Account (August)

· Romania Inflation Rate (September)

· Great Britain Goods Trade Balance (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Construction Output (August)/ GDP (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (September)

· Slovakia Construction Output (August)

· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (September)

· Turkey Current Account (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

· Serbia Inflation Rate (September)

· Russia Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account Q3/ Inflation Rate (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Oman M2 Money Supply (August)/ Total Credit (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (August)/ SACCI Business Confidence (September)

· Angola Inflation Rate (September)

Saturday, October 12, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Spain: National Day, aka Dia de la Hispanidad, commemorating the day in 1492 when Christopher Columbus caught sight of the New World. Includes annual military parade in Madrid.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 13, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Biden travels to Angola for meetings through October 15 with Angolan President João Lourenço to discuss increased trade and climate collaboration.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China PPI (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ New Yuan Loans (September)/ M2 Money Supply (September)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (September)/ Total Social Financing (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Lithuania holds legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Consumer Confidence (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 10/6/24 Francis Kelly 10/6/24

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Washington’s Financial Regulators Go Quiet A Month Before the Elections; Face-Off Between the Fed and the FDIC on Basel III, and Regulated Election Betting Starts Up

October 7 - 11, 2024

Congress is out campaigning in their home states and districts (although they may briefly come back in next week for an emergency vote on disaster aid for those areas recently slammed by Hurricane Helene). All the regulators are here in town but carrying very light schedules. The most significant events we could out there are the monthly board meeting of the Farm Credit Bureau and an SEC event being cohosted with the Federal Thrift Retirement Investment Board entitled Your TSP Account – What to Think About When Nearing Retirement or Considering Leaving the Government.”

Also this week, there are a number of speeches by Federal Reserve Board Governors this week (there are always a lot of Fed Governor speeches every week other than the black-out weeks in advance of the Fed Open Market Committee meetings, aren’t there?).

While Congress is out, that does not mean they are quietly working away at various legislative initiatives. Word came down several days ago that Senator Bill Hagerty (R-TN) is working on a new crypto regulatory bill. Hagerty is regularly mentioned as a possible Trump Cabinet member – perhaps Treasury Secretary – so whatever he proposes should be paid attention to – although, considering the extremely short post-election Congressional calendar, his bill has virtually zero chance of being passed this year and would have to be considered in the new Congress in 2025.

Also, this past week, there were reports that the Federal Reserve’s revised Basel III regulations are caught up in a quiet fight with the FDIC Board—specifically, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director (and FDIC Board member) Rohit Chopra. Chopra is holding out for a much more stringent version of the regulation—more akin to the first draft.

And bringing this note back to the elections: A federal appeals court this past Wednesday cleared the way for the financial exchange Kalshi to move forward with the first fully regulated election-betting markets in the U.S. Place your bets, everyone!

Below is a listing of all the other significant regulatory-related events this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· The Senate is in a Pro Forma session and not returning to work until after the election. No work and no hearings are scheduled. They will return to work on November 12.

House of Representatives

· The House is out of session until after the November elections. No business or hearings are scheduled. They will return to work on November 12.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Monday, October 7, 1:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman will speak at the Independent Bankers Association of Texas (IBAT) Annual Convention, San Antonio, Texas.

· Tuesday, October 8, 3:00 a.m. (Frankfurt, Germany time) – Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler will give a speech on Global Inflation at the European Central Bank Conference on Monetary Policy 2024, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.

· Tuesday, October 8, 7:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson will give a speech on “The Discount Window: 1913-2000” at Davidson College, Davidson, North Carolina.

· Wednesday, October 10, 9:15 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook will give remarks on “Entrepreneurship and Innovation” at the Women for Women Summit presented by the College of Charleston School of Business, Charleston, South Carolina.

· Wednesday, October 10 – The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank’s Payments Symposium will be held Chicago. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Richmond Fed President, and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Meister are scheduled to speak.

· Friday, October 11 – The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank’s Community Bankers Symposium will be held in Chicago. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will speak along with Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman will give remarks on community banking at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Community Bankers Symposium (Virtual).

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Tuesday, October 8, 10:00 a.m. – The SEC and the Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board will host “Your TSP Account – What to Think About When Nearing Retirement or Considering Leaving the Government” (a virtual event)

· Wednesday, October 9, 4:30 p.m. – SEC Chair Gary Gensler will participate in a fireside chat at the NYU Law Institute for Corporate Governance & Finance in New York.

· Thursday, October 10, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Tuesday, October 8 & 9 – The CFTC hosts a hybrid event as part of World Investor Week entitled Explore Relationship Confidence Scams and Anti-Fraud Resources in Washington, D.C. and Austin, Texas.

· Wednesday, October 9, 7:00 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will speak on a keynote fireside chat at the Northwind Professional Institute’s 2024 Disruptive Technologies Invitational Forum in Cambridge, Canada.

· Friday, October 11, 11:50 a.m. (MT) – CFTC Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will speak virtually on a fireside chat titled “Pushing Crypto Forward in the US” at Permissionless III, presented by Blockworks and BANKLESS in Salt Lake City, Utah.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· Friday, October 11, 9:00 a.m. – Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu will speak about the OCC Initiatives in Support of Minority Depository Institutions at the National Bankers Association2024 Annual Conference in Washington, D.C.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

· Thursday, October 10, 10:00 a.m. – The Farm Credit Administration holds a board meeting. They are scheduled to vote on a proposed rule dealing with Annual Independent Audits and Internal Controls over Financial Reporting Requirements

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

· Wednesday, October 9, 10:00 a.m. – The Farm Credit Insurance Corporation holds a board meeting. The agenda includes Quarterly FCSIC financial reports, Quarterly report on insured obligations, Quarterly report on annual performance Plan, Annual performance plan and Annual budget (Open), and Quarterly report on insurance risk (Closed)

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Sunday – Tuesday, October 6-8 – the American Bankers Association holds its Bank Marketing Conference in Chicago, Illinois.

· Tuesday – Thursday, October 8 -10 – The American Bankers Association holds its annual Financial Crimes Enforcement Conference in Arlington, Virginia.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Wednesday, October 9, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Finance will hold an event entitled “A holistic perspective on climate and financial policies”

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 10/4/24 Francis Kelly 10/4/24

The Global Week Ahead

Hezbollah’s Leader Nasrallah is Dead, Leaving Markets and World Leaders Asking: What Happens Now? The US Vice Presidential Candidates Debate As U.S. Dockworkers Prepare To Go On Strike, And Mexico Inaugurates A New President

September 29 - October 5, 2024

With the confirmation of the death of Hezbollah's Hassan Nasrallah, markets and world leaders are asking the question: What happens next? The risk of war between Israel and Hezbollah and possibly Iran has reached dangerous new levels. Nasrallah's death is a massive blow to Iran's power and prestige in the Middle East, and it is unclear if or how Iran could retaliate. The only clear thing is Israel is determined to cripple Hezbollah's military threat to Israel permanently, as we saw over the weekend as Israeli airstrikes continued to pound Hezbollah positions.

Meanwhile, in the United States this coming week, Vice Presidential candidates Senator J.D. Vance (R-OH) and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz will debate on Tuesday. This will happen as the International Longshoreman's Association is expected to go on strike on both coasts, shutting down 36 major ports just as imports ramp up to meet Christmas shopping demand. The union and port owners have been stalemated over a new contract for over a year.

Elsewhere in the Americas, Mexico will hold the historic inauguration of Claudia Sheinbaum as the country's new—and first female—president. Succeeding President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), she is expected to continue pursuing his controversial populist agenda, which includes the recent much-criticized reform of the national judiciary and possibly a ramp-up of nationalization of foreign-owned assets in the country.

In Asia, Japan's parliament will formally vote to approve a new Prime Minister—former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba—to succeed Fumio Kishida. The significance of this transition is that Ishiba is a strong military defense hawk who advocates a significant ramp-up of Japan's military and military as well as the creation of an “Asian NATO” – which would mean stationing Japanese troops in other countries, including the US. He has also advocated legislation that would allow women to become reigning empresses, something opposed by many of his fellow Liberal Democratic Party lawmakers.

On the global economic radar screen this coming week, markets will be looking closely at the US jobs report, ISM indicators, and JOLTS reports for signs of where unemployment is going. Additionally, Fed Chair Jay Powell will give an important speech on the economic outlook.

In Europe, German and Italian CPI figures will be a significant focus of the markets. Markets are also listening for European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's remarks before a European Parliament Committee hearing this week.

In Asia, the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) summary of opinions will be released, as well as the BoJ's Tankan Survey and labor market figures. China celebrates the 75th Anniversary of the establishment of the People's Republic of China and the beginning of the Golden Week holidays, which run through October 7. It also releases on Monday much-watched manufacturing PMIs.

Here is what else we are tracking in the week ahead:

Sunday, September 29, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Austria holds Parliamentary elections. 183 seats of the National Council and lower house of parliament are up. The far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) is currently polling at 26%, and the center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP), led by incumbent Chancellor Karl Nehammer, with 25%. The Social Democratic Party (SPÖ) is close behind with 21% (which means no single party will likely secure a majority, forcing a coalition government).

· Ukraine observes the 83rd anniversary of Babyn Yar, the two-day slaughter of more than 30,000 Jews in Kyiv by the Nazis.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (August)/ Private Bank Lending (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 30, 2024

Global

· The UN General Assembly concludes today. A list of the final national leaders speaking can be found at UN Journal.         

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to Haiti [mandate of the Multinational Security Support Mission (MSSM)]. Soon after, the Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo sanctions. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the maintenance of international peace and security.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· El Salvadorian President Bukele will be meeting with Argentine President Javier Milei in Buenos Aires. The two conservative leaders are expected to discuss AI investment and other tech issues.

· The US Congress is out of session until November.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to speak before the National Association for Business Economics 66th Annual Meeting, "Finding Harmony in the Noise: Transitioning to a New Normal" in Nashville, Tennessee.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” at the Georgia Bankers Association President/CEO Conference, Charleston, South Carolina.

· Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (August)/ Nominal Budget Balance (August)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Chile Copper Production (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

· USA Chicago PMI (September)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (September)/ Quarterly Grain Stocks - Corn & Soy & Wheat (September)

· Colombia Unemployment Rate (August)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (August)

· El Salvador Current Account Q2

· Paraguay Current Account Q2

· Uruguay Current Account Q2/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Mexico Fiscal Balance (August)

· Costa Rica Unemployment Rate Q2

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Philippine Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro will give a major speech on South China Sea dispute in Manila, Philippines.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

· Japan Industrial Production Prel (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Housing Starts (August)/ Construction Orders (August)

· New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (September)

· Australia Housing Credit (August)/ Private Sector Credit (August)

· China NBS Non-Manufacturing/ Manufacturing/ General PMI (September)/ Caixin Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI (September)/ Current Account Final Q2

· Singapore Import/ Export Prices (August)/ PPI (August)

· Malaysia M3 Money Supply (August)

· Thailand Current Account (August)/ Private Consumption & Investment (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

· Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (September)/ PPI (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)

· India Government Budget Value (August)/ Infrastructure Output (August)/ Current Account Q2/ External Debt Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The trial of Marine Le Pen, 26 others and the RN on suspicion of embezzlement of European public funds in Paris.

· The Vaclav Havel Human Rights Prize announced in Strasbourg, France. The finalists are Venezuelan democracy leader María Corina Machada, Azerbaijanian human rights leader Akif Gurbanov, and Georgian human rights leader Babutsa Pataraia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give an introductory statement at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

· Germany Import Prices (August)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (September)/ Bavaria CPI (September)/ Brandenburg CPI (September)/ Hesse CPI (September)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (September)/ Saxony CPI (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

· Great Britain Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ Business Investment Final Q2/ BoE Consumer Credit (August)/ Mortgage Lending & Approvals (August)/ M4 Money Supply (August)/ Net Lending to Individuals (August)

· Hungary PPI (August)

· Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (September)

· Poland Inflation Rate Prel (September)

· Spain Current Account (July)

· Slovenia Inflation Rate (September)

· Greece PPI (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

· Italy Inflation Rate (September)

· Ireland Retail Sales (August)

· Serbia Balance of Trade (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

· Ukraine Balance of Trade (July)/ Current Account (August)

· Russia M2 Money Supply (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Unemployment Rate Q2

· Kuwait Inflation Rate (August)/ M2 Money Supply (August)/ Private Bank Lending (August)

· Qatar M2 Money Supply (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The International Court of Justice holds public hearings on a land and maritime dispute between Gabon and Equatorial Guinea.

· Today is Independence Day in Botswana, celebrating when the country gained its independence from the UK in 1964..

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa M3 Money Supply (August)/ Private Sector Credit (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Budget Balance (August)

· Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (September)

· Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (August)

· Kenya Inflation Rate (September)

· Egypt M2 Money Supply (August)

Tuesday, October 1, 2024

Global

· Switzerland assumes the Chair of the UN Security Council for the month of October.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Claudia Sheinbaum will be sworn in as Mexico’s new President and first woman president.

· US Vice Presidential candidates J.D. Vance and Tim Walz will take part in an election debate.

· The International Longshoreman’s Association is expected to begin a strike in more than a dozen major ports along the East and West Coast.

· Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will likely face a second non-confidence vote in two weeks.

· Widespread protests are expected by pensioners I Caracas, Venezuela.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to give welcome and opening remarks before the" Technology-Enabled Disruption: Implications of AI, Big Data, and Remote Work" conference organized by the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Boston and Richmond in Atlanta, Georgia.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech entitled “AI, Big Data, and the Path Ahead for Productivity” at the Conference on “Technology-Enabled Disruption: Implications of AI, Big Data, and Remote Work," Atlanta, Georgia.

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (August)

· USA Redbook (September28)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (September)/ JOLTs Job Openings (August)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (September)/ Construction Spending (August)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (September)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (September)/ JOLTs Job Quits (August)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (September)/ Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/27)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (September)

· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Peru Inflation Rate (September)

· Argentina Tax Revenue (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is China’s National Day celebrating the end of dynastic rule and the 75th anniversary of People’s Republic of China. It is a public holiday and the beginning of its Golden Week which runs through October 7.

· The ASEAN-Japan Cybersecurity Policy Meeting will begin in Singapore.

· Japan will formally elect former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba as Prime Minister.

· The Indian region of Jammu and Kashmir will begin its third phase of voting for assembly elections, and the Indian state of Haryana will hold its assembly elections as well.

· Today is Independence Day in Tuvalu. The island nation celebrates when it gained its independence from the UK in 1978.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence & Utilization Q3/ Building Permits (August)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (October/01)

· Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (September)/ Building Permits (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Private House Approvals Prel (August)/ Commodity Prices (September)/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (September)

· Japan Unemployment Rate (August)/ Jobs/applications ratio (August)/ BoJ Summary of Opinions/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (September)

· South Korea Exports/ Imports/ Balance of Trade (September)

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ PPI (August)

· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (September)

· Kazakhstan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Pakistan Inflation Rate (September)/ Wholesale Prices (September)/ Balance of Trade (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Former Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte takes over from Jens Stoltenberg as NATO secretary general.

· Ukraine will mark its Defenders Day national holiday.

· Newly installed French Prime Minister Michel Barnier delivers his first general policy statement to Parliament, including the 2025 budget.

· Wikileaks founder Julian Assange will address the Council of Europe.

· Today is Cyprus Independence Day, marking when the nation became independent from the UK in 1960.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives the welcoming speech at the 5th Joint BoC - ECB - NY FED Conference on Expectations Surveys, Central Banks and the Economy in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will chair the keynote lecture at 5th Joint Bank of Canada - ECB – New York FED Conference on Expectations Surveys, Central Banks and the Economy in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Hungary Balance of Trade Final (July)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Switzerland Retail Sales (August)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Inflation Rate Flash (September)/ CPI Flash (September)

· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing

· Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)/ New Car Sales (September)

· Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)

· France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The Asia Cooperation Dialogue's heads of state meeting will take place in Doha, Qatar, through October 1.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (September)

Wednesday, October 2, 2024

Global

· G7 Interior Ministers meet in Mirabella Eclano, Italy, through October 4.

· The Jewish High Holy Days will begin at sundown with the start of Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish new year.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem will give welcome remarks before the Community Banking Research Conference 2024:"Where Research and Policy Meet," co-sponsored by the Federal Reserve System, the Conference of State Bank Supervisors (CSBS) and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation in St. Louis, Missouri. Later, Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman will give a keynote speech at the conference.

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to speak on the national economic outlook before the 2024 WilmingtonBiz Conference and Expo in Wilmington, Delaware.

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (September)/ Industrial Production (August)

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/27)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/27)/ ADP Employment Change (September)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (September/27)/ EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (September/27)

· Mexico Business Confidence (September)/ Gross Fixed Investment (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Colombia Exports (August)

· Paraguay Inflation Rate (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will visit Pakistan through October 4.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia Ai Group Industry/ Construction/ Manufacturing Index (September)

· South Korea Inflation Rate (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index & Outlook Q3/ Tankan Large All Industry Capex Q3/ Consumer Confidence (September)

· Singapore URA Property Index QoQ Prel Q3/ SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (September)

· Sri Lanka Current Account Q2

· India M3 Money Supply (September/20)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen meetings with the President of Georgia, Ms. Salome Zourabichivili in Brussels. The EU and Georgia have experienced significant disruptions in relations. The EU has threatened to strip Georgians of visa-free access due to backsliding on democracy in the country, and it has frozen chances of Georgia joining the EU. Later in the day, von der Leyen will meet with British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer in an effort to “reset ties” between the UK and EU.

· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will host meetings with French President Emanual Macron in Berlin.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board member Luis de Guindos will give a speech at the Latvijas Banka's and SUERF Economic Conference, "Financing a Better Future: The Vital Role of Finance in Achieving Sustainable Growth" in Riga, Latvia. He will then participate on a panel entitled “From Riga to Brussels to Wall Street: Examining the Differences of Financial Architecture.”

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane will chair a policy panel at the 5th Joint Bank of Canada - ECB - Federal Reserve Bank of New York Conference on Expectations Surveys, Central Banks and the Economy in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will participate on a panel discussion "Banking for Prosperity: Towards Stronger and More Inclusive Growth Through Increased Integration and Competition" at Latvijas Banka's and SUERF Economic Conference "Financing a Better Future: The Vital Role of Finance in Achieving Sustainable Growth" in Riga, Latvia.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will participate in webinar organized by the Institute of International & European Affairs in Dublin, Ireland.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will give the Walter Eucken Lecture 2024 at the University of Freiburg in Freiburg, Germany.

· Romania PPI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

· Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (September)

· Spain Unemployment Change (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

· Euro Area Unemployment Rate (August)

· Italy Unemployment Rate (August)/ New Car Registrations (September)

· Ireland Unemployment Rate (September)

· Poland Interest Rate Decision (October)

· Russia Business Confidence (September)/ Real Wage Growth (July)/ Retail Sales (August)/ GDP (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Guinea, marking when the country gained its freedom from France in 1958.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Angola GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (September)

· South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales (September)

Thursday, October 3, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in hybrid "Featuring Frontier Research to Enhance Economic Opportunity and Inclusive Growth" 2024 Research Conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Later, Atlanta Federal Reserve Board President Raphael Bostic will participate via video.

· Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· USA Initial Jobless Claims (September/28)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (September)/ ISM Services PMI/ Business/ Employment/ New Orders/ Prices (September)/ Factory Orders (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September/27)/15 & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/02)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/2)/ Total Vehicle Sales (September)

· Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (September)

· Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (September)

· Uruguay Inflation Rate (September)

· Peru Inflation Rate (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Asahi Noguchi gives a speech to a meeting of local business leaders in Nagasaki, Japan.

· Australia Judo Bank Composite & Services PMI Final (September)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (September/28)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/28)/ Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMI Final (September)

· Singapore S&P Global PMI (September)

· Kazakhstan S&P Global Services PMI (September)

· Hong Kong Retail Sales (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Germany celebrates the Day of German Unity, celebrating the reunification of Germany. It is a public holiday, and financial markets and banks are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ireland AIB Services PMI (September)

· Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (September)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

· Switzerland Inflation Rate (September)

· France Budget Balance (August)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (September)

· Turkey Inflation Rate (September)/ PPI (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/27)/ Auto Production (September)/ Auto Sales (September)

· Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (September)

· Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (September)

· Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (September)

· Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (September)/ PPI (August)

· Great Britain S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Iraq Independence Day, marking when the country gained its independence from the UK in 1932.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (September)

· United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (September)

· Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (September)

· Qatar Financial Centre PMI (September)/ Balance of Trade (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt S&P Global PMI (September)

· Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (September)

· South Africa S&P Global PMI (September)

· Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (September)

· Ghana S&P Global PMI (September)

· Tanzania Interest Rate Decision

Friday, October 4, 2024

Global

· G7 Ministers meet in gender equity and women’s empowerment in Matera, Italy, through October 6.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to give opening remarks before the conference, "The Future of New York City: Focus on Jobs," at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

· Mexico Unemployment Rate (August)/ Auto Exports (September)/ Auto Production (September)

· USA Unemployment Rate (September)/ Participation Rate (September)/ Average Weekly Hours (September)/ Manufacturing & Government Payrolls (September)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (October/04)

· Canada Ivey PMI s.a (September)

· Brazil Balance of Trade (September)

· Ecuador Inflation Rate (September)

· El Salvador GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Colombia PPI (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Kazakhstan will host the regional ceremony of unveiling the Global Innovation Index 2024 Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (September)

· Philippines Inflation Rate (September)

· Australia Home Loans (August)/ Investment Lending for Homes (August)

· India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (September)/ Bank Loan Growth (September/20)/ Deposit Growth (September/20)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/27)

· Singapore Retail Sales (August)

· Thailand Business Confidence (September)

· Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Sri Lanka Unemployment Rate Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will give the speech at the 10th Anniversary International Financial Markets Conference organized by Lithuanian Central Bank in Vilnius, Lithuania.

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos will give remarks at the anniversary of Radio Intereconomía.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will give the keynote speech followed by panel participation at the Change in Leadership event by Sustainable Finance Lab in Utrecht, Netherlands.

· Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill will give a speech at the Institute of Chartered Accounts in England and Wales Annual Conference.

· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (September)

· Hungary Industrial Production (August)

· France Industrial Production (August)/ HCOB Construction PMI (September)

· Slovakia Retail Sales (August)

· Spain Industrial Production (August)

· Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (September)

· Germany HCOB Construction PMI (September)/ New Car Registrations (September)

· Italy HCOB Construction PMI (September)/ Retail Sales (August)

· Great Britain New Car Sales (September)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (September)

· Slovenia Balance of Trade (August)

· Serbia PPI (September)

· Romania Interest Rate Decision

· Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Prel (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Lesotho celebrates Independence Day, marking when the UK granted the nation its independence in 1966.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Kenya GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Saturday, October 5, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Vanuatu celebrates Constitution Day, celebrating when the nation’s constitution was signed in 1979, paving the way for its independence.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Portugal celebrates Republic Day, celebrating when Portugal’s monarchy was overthrown in 1910.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 6, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Brazil holds local elections, including for Mayor of Sao Paulo.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In Kazakhstan, a referendum on the construction of a nuclear power plant (NPP) will be held. Opinion polling indicates that the most likely scenario will be a vote in favor of constructing the plant. If approved, it will help Kazakhstan domestic electricity supply challenges and reduce its dependence on both fossil fuels and electricity imports from abroad.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· London is bracing for a large protest in support of Palestinians.

· Bosnia and Herzegovina will hold local elections.

· In Italy, Matteo Salvini's League holds annual meeting in Pontida.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Tunisia will hold a presidential election. President Kais Saied will almost certainly win as opposition parties are boycotting the election.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 9/28/24 Francis Kelly 9/28/24

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Washington Goes Quiet in Advance of the November Elections, the FDIC Is Going to Take A Look At Credit Union Acquisitions of Community Banks, and FDIC Chair Gruenberg Is Still There And Will be Well into 2025

September 30 - October 4, 2024

With Congress passing a stop-gap funding bill keeping the federal government running until late December and the elections a little over a month away, Washington got very quiet at the end of the week. Congress is a ghost town again, now until after the election. In the coming week, regulators are taking advantage of the change in tempo and also not to do much publicly.

Probably the three biggest events this coming week are a fireside chat FDIC Vice Chair Travis Hill is doing at the Women in Housing and Finance event. All ears will be open—especially among the community bank community—as reports circulated last week that the FDIC is going to take a closer look at credit unions buying up community banks, something that reached an all-time record high this year.

The second event of note is Fed Governor Lisa Cook's speech in Atlanta on Tuesday entitled "AI, Big Data, and the path ahead for Productivity." Her speech will be at a conference entitled "AI, Big Data, and the Path Ahead for Productivity" at the Conference on "Technology-Enabled Disruption: Implications of AI, Big Data, and Remote Work." So, it's safe to say her remarks will touch every sector, from banking to manufacturing to big tech.

Finally, the Treasury Department will hold a virtual meeting of its Financial Research Advisory Committee to examine technology vulnerabilities in the financial sector, AI, and central counterparties and a demonstration of new hedge fund monitoring systems.

Looking at what happened last week of note, the Senate Banking Committee canceled its hearing with SEC Chair Gary Gensler at the last minute. Senate Banking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown (D-OH) said it was because of numerous scheduling issues. But Brown also failed to hold a vote on FDIC Chair nominee Christi Goldsmith Romano. This means a committee vote will not happen until late November – if ever. This means FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg will continue to sit in the chair despite his role in the scandals there until at least February, if not longer. Everyone knew this was going to happen when Romano was nominated – the White House. Chair Brown. Everyone. But here we are.

Finally, it should be noted the Treasury Market Conference held at the New York Fed happened and while there were few headline speeches, Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr once again spoke of his efforts to finalize bank capital rules as well as to finding a way to make it normal for banks to access the Fed discount window and not be seen as potentially troubled publicly. We will be interested in seeing how this plays out.

Below is a listing of all the other significant regulatory-related events this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· The Senate is in a Pro Forma session and is not returning to work until after the election. No work and no hearings are scheduled. They will return to work on November 12.

House of Representatives

· The House is out of session until after the November elections. No business or hearings are scheduled. They will return to work on November 12.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Monday, September 30, 8:50 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” at the Georgia Bankers Association President/CEO Conference, Charleston, South Carolina.

· Monday, September 30, 1:55 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives a speech on the economic outlook at the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Annual Meeting in Nashville, Tennessee.

· Tuesday, October 1, 11:10 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech entitled “AI, Big Data, and the Path Ahead for Productivity” at the Conference on “Technology-Enabled Disruption: Implications of AI, Big Data, and Remote Work," Atlanta, Georgia.

· Wednesday, October 2, 11:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Building the Community Banking Framework for the Future” at the 2024 Community Banking Research Conference, St. Louis, Missouri.

U.S. Treasury Department

· Tuesday, October 1, 10:00 a.m. – The Treasury Department holds a virtual meeting of the Financial Research Advisory Committee. The agenda includes: Technology vulnerabilities; Cybersecurity; Artificial intelligence; Central counterparties; Hedge fund monitor demonstration; and Update from the Office of Financial Research Data Center.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Monday, September 30, 10:00 a.m. – The American Bankers Association's Economic Advisory Committee holds a news conference to present the latest consensus economic forecast.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Monday, September 30, 12:00 p.m. – The Women in Housing and Finance will host a fireside chat with FDIC Vice Chair Travis Hill in Washington, D.C.

· Monday, September 30, 3:00 p.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 3 p.m., on "Price Stability in an Age of Emergencies: Revisiting the Case for Buffer Stocks."

· Tuesday, October 1, 9:00 a.m. – The Center for Global Development holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 9 a.m., on "Why and How the MDB (Multilateral Development Banks) Capital Adequacy Framework Report Had Impact.

· Thursday, October 3, 6:00 p.m. – The American Bar Association and the National Asian Pacific American Law Student Association holds a discussion on "2024 Why Antitrust?"

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 9/27/24 Francis Kelly 9/27/24

DWS Insurance Asset Management Conference

Charleston, South Carolina - September 23, 2024

I was delighted to have the opportunity to address this gathering of CEOs and Chief Investment Officers of some of the biggest insurance firms globally. It was a fantastic conversation about the multiple geopolitical challenges today and the many implications of the U.S. elections on the markets. Will Harris win, or will Trump pull off a come-back? Which party will control the Senate, and is there a real chance that the filibuster will be removed if Democrats sweep the White House, House of Representatives, and Senate? What does this mean for tax policy? Health care policy? And where are we going on with the U.S.-China policy, and what exactly is going on inside China today economically, socially, and politically? We covered all of this and much more. Thank you for having me, DWS! You can see my full presentation HERE or via the link below.

Francis Kelly 9/24/24 Francis Kelly 9/24/24

Book Review:

A Quiet Company of Dangerous Men: The Forgotten British Special Operations Soldiers of World War II

By Shannon Monaghan, Viking Press, 2024 (400 pages)

Fortunately, there are many riveting books about the daring raids of the British Special Air Service (SAS) “Desert Rats” during World War II. Indeed, there is a wonderful show about them on BBC, “Rogue Heroes.” Their insanely heroic attacks on German Field Marshall Erwin Rommel’s Afrika Corps hundreds of miles behind enemy lines are almost beyond belief in their audacity and impact on the war.

But they were not the only ones. Less well known, until now, are four men who brought the fight to the Nazis in Albania, tying down hundreds of thousands of German troops from being dispatched to either the Western or Eastern Front to fight allied forces. Moreover, the end of World War II was not the end of their war against totalitarianism, as they marched off to Vietnam, Oman, Yemen, and elsewhere to fight “the good fight.” Their wars and lives are dazzlingly reported in “A Quiet Company of Dangerous Men” by Shannon Monaghan.

Billy McLean, David Smiley, Peter Kemp, and Julian Amery were boundless in their efforts to defeat the Nazis but also dealt with rising communist threats in Albania and Yugoslavia. Of particular challenge to them was trying to get the ruthless communist partisan leader (and future dictator of Albania) Enver Hoxha actually to fight the Nazis (he often claimed his partisans fought in this or that battle, but the truth is a combination of cowardice on Hoxha’s part and determination to save as much ammunition and men for later fights with non-marxist partisans kept them out of the battle). Moreover, as the four British heroes were increasingly successful on the battlefield, they suddenly discovered someone was selling them out to the Germans: Hoxha was tipping off the Germans, hoping the Brits would be killed off and he could step in as the leader.

However, there was another traitor to the cause of fighting the Nazis in Albania, and, of all people, he was back in Special Operation Executive (SOE) helping to oversee the entire operation: James Klugmann, the senior British Army officer overseeing all activities in Yugoslavia. Klugmann was a traitor, a Soviet agent who had been recruited at Cambridge in 1936 and was a friend and contemporary of the other infamous Cambridge spies, better known as the Cambridge Five: Kim Philby, Donald MacLean, Guy Burgess, and Anthony Blunt. Klugmann was taking his orders from the NKVD and Stalin, and his mission was to ensure Communist partisan Josef Broz Tito (and his toadie in Albania, Hoxha) were put in the best light while the Yugoslav royalists were falsely accused of cowardice and ineptitude. Klugmann’s fraudulent memos and analysis impacted the future of both Yugoslavia and Albania, as Churchill and other leaders read what he reported. But on the ground, he tried to get the four Brits killed numerous times. Klugmann was a committed Stalinist but somehow constantly escaped being nailed as a spy despite multiple investigations.

Eventually, the Fantastic Four were pulled from Albania despite their successes (and numerous wounds and near captures). They would all end up going to India to prepare to fight the Japanese, taking part in dangerous reconnaissance missions and helping to liberate Allied POWs. Billy MacLean and Julian Amery went on to serve in the British Parliament - but when danger called, they both went back to helping fight authoritarianism - including returning to Albania to serve in a joint British-US covert effort to throw Hoxha out of power.

Peter Berg was a witness to the rise of the Vietnamese Communist movement - the Viet Minh who were hunting French colonials down and murdering them, although defeated Japanese forces had not even left Vietnam yet.

This is a rollicking, fun read—and it is also an important one in that we cannot forget the efforts and successes of brave men like McLean, Kemp, Smiley, and Amery. Our world needs men like these again to step up and fight against the forces of darkness that are growing around the world.

Francis Kelly 9/22/24 Francis Kelly 9/22/24

The Global Week Ahead

World Leaders Gather at UN General Assembly Week in New York, Japan Selects a New Prime Minister, Bracing for Israeli-Hezbollah Escalation, and Waiting For A Flood of Fed Governor Speeches

September 22 - 29, 2024

This coming week is going to be an exceptionally busy one on the geopolitical front. The United Nations 79th General Assembly is this week, and leaders from around the world are gathering to give speeches before the Assembly and hold side meetings with other leaders. Of note, we will be watching closely Iran's new President Masoud Pezeshkian's speech for not only what he says about the current escalation of fighting between Israel's and Iran's proxy militia, Hezbollah. But also, press reports suggest Pezeshkian may suggest an avenue to restarting stalled talks on limiting Iran's nuclear program.

As we write this update, there has been a significant escalation of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah following Israel’s stunning exploding pager operation last week, killing or wounding more than 3,000 Hezbollah operatives. The question now is does this move into a full-out war (which seems most likely) or is there some remote chance of a diplomatic solution.

Also of note this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will speak to the Assembly and then travel to Washington to meet with President Biden, Vice President Harris, and House and Senate leadership about additional military assistance.

As all this is happening, Japan's Liberal Democracy Party will vote on a new leader—who will then become the new Prime Minister of Japan—as incumbent LDP President and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is not running for re-election and is standing down in the wake of low approval polls and a controversy over a slush fund scandal.

Turning to US politics, The House and Senate are expected to vote this week on a Continuing Resolution (CR) to keep the federal government running through December 20th. The bill will likely face widespread House Republican opposition but still pass with just enough Republicans voting in favor, along with almost the entire House Democratic Caucus. As this is going on, the House Foreign Affairs Committee is going to hold a hearing with Secretary of State Antony Blinken to review the chaotic withdrawal of US Forces from Afghanistan. The Committee issued a scathing report recently, strongly criticizing how the withdrawal was conducted.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, we are struck by the large number of speeches Federal Reserve Board Governors are giving: ten, of which seven are being given on Thursday. That is a lot for markets to digest, along with a busy US economic report calendar that includes US PCE readings, flash US CPI numbers, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index, and durable goods orders.

Turning to Europe, the European Central Bank, France, Germany, and Italy release their consumer expectation surveys. In Asia, Japan releases the Tokyo CPI report and flash PMIs. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets to decide interest rates.

Here is what else we are tracking in this hectic week ahead:

Sunday, September 22, 2024

Global

· The opening segment of the Summit of the Future will take place at the General Assembly Hall. The UN Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks, as well as the President of the 79th Session of the General Assembly, Philemon Yang. The Summit of the Future will continue until September 23.

· The UN’s the COP29 Presidency and the International Organization for Migration (IOM) are co-organizing a High-Level Roundtable on Climate, Peace and Human Mobility.

· Today is the Fall Equinox.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will address the Indian diaspora at the "Modi & US Progress Together" event at Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum in Long Island, New York.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Thailand New Car Sales (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· In Germany, the state of Brandenburg holds state elections.

· Switzerland holds a referendum vote on initiative to strengthen biodiversity protection.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today in South Sudan is the deadline for the dissolution of the transitional unity government ahead of possible December elections.

· Today is Mali Independence Day, celebrating when the country gained its independence from France in 1960.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 23, 2024

Global

· The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) holds board meetings in Vienna, Austria. They are expected to be given an update on Iran’s nuclear weapons program, North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, and the situation around security and safeguards around Ukraine’s nuclear power facility, which has been the center of heavy fighting.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Joe Biden hosts UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan for talks on Gaza and Sudan. This is the first state visit by a sitting UAE President. He will also meet with Vice President Kamala Harris during his visit along with a large group of US businessmen.

· The Argentine Congress is expected to begin debating the 2025 fiscal budget. President Javier Milei has pledged to substantially reduce the federal deficit via austerity measures in the package.

· The Clinton Foundation holds its annual Clinton Global Initiative in New York.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to speak virtually on the economic outlook before the Distinguished Speakers Seminar convened by the European Economics and Financial Centre at the University of London.

· Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in moderated question-and-answer session before the Greater Kansas City Chamber of Commerce Leadership Exchange 2024.

· Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Mexico Economic Activity (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

· US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (August)/ S&P Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (September)

· Canada New Housing Price Index (August)

· Paraguay PPI (August)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan's main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, will hold a leadership election. Whomever wins is the likely next Prime Minister.

· South Korea will host the 25th Korea-U.S. Integrated Defense Dialogue in Seoul.

· Filipino unionized transport workers will stage a nationwide work stoppage through September 24.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japanese financial markets are closed to celebrate the Autum Equinox Day.

· New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (September)

· Indonesia M2 Money Supply (August)

· Malaysia Inflation Rate (August)

· India HSBC Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (September)

· Philippines Business & Consumer Confidence Q3

· Taiwan Unemployment Rate (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Italy will host the second Libya Energy and Economy Summit in Rome.

· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels. Ministers are going to discuss the upcoming EU-UK annual consultation on fishing opportunities for 2025 as well as the EU-Norway and coastal states annual consultations for the coming year.

· The EU General Affairs Council will meet in Brussels. Ministers will hear the Hungarian presidency will present the priorities for its term of office. Ministers will have an opportunity to present their comments. They will also hold a horizontal discussion on the rule of law situation in the EU member states. Separately, ministers will also exchange views on the general trend of the rule of law situation in selected candidate countries. Both discussions will make use of the Commission’s 2024 rule of law report, which this year covers, for the first time, also developments in Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen delivers a keynote address at the Association of Small Islands States Leaders Meeting in New York.

· Armenia's Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan will travel to the Netherlands and Brussels, Belgium, on a working visit.

· Paris Fashion Week begins. Maybe Derek Zoolander will be there, too.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone will give an introductory statement at a hearing on the digital euro before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium. Later, he will participate on a panel discussion at a roundtable on the digital euro at the House of the Euro in Brussels.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives opening remarks at the summit on Real estate climate data industry good practices organized by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Hungary Gross Wage (July)

· Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (September)

· France HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (September)

· Germany HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (September)

· Poland Retail Sales (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August)

· Great Britain S&P Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (September)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (September)

· Belarus Industrial Production (August)

· Ireland Consumer Confidence (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Saudi Arabia celebrates National Day. Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (July)/ Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Kuwait Inflation Rate (August)/ M2 Money Supply (August)/ Private Bank Lending (August)

· Lebanon Inflation Rate (August)

· Jordan Industrial Production (July)

· Qatar M2 Money Supply (August)/ Total Credit Growth (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

· Oman M2 Money Supply (July)/ Total Credit (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (August)

Tuesday, September 24, 2024

Global

· The UN’s General Assembly’s General Debate of the 79th session officially begins. The theme for the 79th session is “"Leaving no one behind: acting together for the advancement of peace, sustainable development and human dignity for present and future generations.” The Secretary-General will address this session of the General Debate. The Speakers list will be available in the UN Journal.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The House Foreign Affairs Committee holds a hearing on "An Assessment of the State Department's Withdrawal from Afghanistan by America's Top Diplomat." US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will testify. The Committee recently issued a scathing report on how the withdrawal was conducted and President Biden’s role.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech at the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy at the Kentucky Bankers Association Annual Convention.

· Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will participate in a fireside chat at the Institute for International Finance Canada Forum 2024 in Toronto.

· Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ FGV Consumer Confidence (September)

· Chile PPI (August)

· Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (September)

· Canada Manufacturing Sales MoM Prel (August)

· USA Redbook (September/21)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (July)/ House Price Index (July)/ CB Consumer Confidence (September)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (September)/ Money Supply (August)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/20)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· ASEAN Defense Senior Officials meet in Vientian.

· ASEAN Energy Ministers meet in Vientian.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda gives a speech to business leaders in Osaka, Japan.

· Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (September)/ BOJ Gov Ueda Speech

· South Korea PPI (August)

· Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Malaysia Coincident Index (July)/ Leading Index (July)

· Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Interest Rate Decision/ RBA Press Conference

· Taiwan Export Orders (August)

· Philippines Budget Balance (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen co-hosts an event on carbon-pricing, together with Justin Trudeau, Prime Minister of Canada in New York. She will also deliver opening remarks at the Global Renewables Summit in New York.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives the opening speech at the European Confederation of Institutes of International Accounting (ECIIA) Banking Forum 2024 "AI and IA: Responding to the Digital Journey in Banking".

· Bankca d’Italia/G7 jointly hold a workshop entitled “Building a quantum safe financial system: what role for authorities and for the private sector?” in Rome.

· Turkey Business Confidence (September)/ Capacity Utilization (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

· Germany Ifo Business Climate/ Current Conditions/ Expectations (September)

· Poland Unemployment Rate (August)

· Slovenia Business Confidence (September)

· Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (September)/ Inflation Report/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Riyadh, Saudi Arabia will host the Smart Cities Saudi Conference.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Composite Economic Index (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Guinea-Bissau celebrates its 51st Independence Day, marking when Portugal gave the country it’s freedom.

· South African markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, September 25, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Maintenance of International Peace and Security: Leadership for Peace. The Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks.

· At the UN, the 2nd Foreign Ministers meeting of G20 Brazil 2024 on the theme "Building a just world and a sustainable planet" will take place at the ECOSOC Chamber. The Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks.

· The UN holds a high-level meeting on rising sea levels.

· The OECD presents its Interim Economic Outlook.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US House of Representative’s Speaker of the House Michael Johnson (R-LA) is expected to present a stop-gap spending bill that will continue US government funding through December 20. A deal was reached over the weekend with the Senate over the weekend. A large number of House Republicans are expected to vote against it – which will complicate Speaker Johnson’s future as Speaker.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech on the Economic Outlook at the Harvard Kennedy School, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

· USA MBA Purchase Index (September/20)/ New Home Sales (August)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (September/20)/ Building Permits Final (August)

· Brazil Current Account (August)/ Foreign Direct Investment (August)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (September)

· Uruguay Unemployment Rate (August)

· Argentina Economic Activity (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Vietnam's President and ruling Communist Party chief To Lam will visit Cuba through September 26 and meet with Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel.

· The Indian region of Jammu and Kashmir will begin its second phase of voting for assembly elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Consumer Confidence (September)

· Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (August)/ RBA Chart Pack

· Singapore Inflation Rate (August)

· Taiwan Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Parliament is expected to vote on raising tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank’s Governing Council holds a non-monetary policy meeting (virtual).

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in roundtable at European Banking Chief Compliance Officer Network (EBCCON) Plenary Meeting 2024 (virtual).

· Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Megan Greene gives a speech at the Chambers of Commerce in Newcastle on Consumption.

· Hungary Current Account Q2

· France Consumer Confidence (September)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (August)/ Jobseekers Total (August)

· Spain PPI (August)

· Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (September)

· Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (August)

· Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/ ECB McCaul Speech

· Russia Corporate Profits (July)/ Industrial Production (August)

· Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Abu Dhabi will host Global Aerospace Summit. The focus of the meeting will be on investment and global trade in the industry.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (July)

Thursday, September 26, 2024

Global

· G7 Agriculture Ministers will meet in Syracuse, Italy through September 28.

· The World Bank/IFS/ODI Finance Conference begins in Washington, D.C.

· BRICS Foreign Ministers meet in New York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.

· BRICS Energy Ministers meet in Moscow.

· The BRICS Digital Forum is held in Innopolis, Republic of Tatarstan.

· The BRICS Science, Technology and Innovation Ministerial meeting will be held in Moscow.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will meet with U.S. President Joe Biden and separately with Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris at the White House in Washington, D.C.

· El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele will make an official visit to Argentina. The meetings come after the two nations signed a security agreement in June.

· Ecuador will host the Women Economic Forum in Quito through September 28.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler participates in a Fireside chat on Financial Inclusion with President Susan M. Collins, co-hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston and Minneapolis and the Federal Reserve Board (virtual)

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman participates in a discussion on the “Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” at the Mid-size Bank Coalition of America Board of Directors Workshop.

· The Federal Reserve Bank of New York holds its 2024 U.S. Treasury Market Conference. Scheduled speakers include: Brian Smith, deputy assistant Treasury secretary for federal finance, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen, and SEC Chair Gary Gensler.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook participates in a roundtable discussion entitled “Artificial Intelligence and Workforce Development” at the Roundtable Discussion with Community Stakeholders, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and Columbus State Community College, Columbus, Ohio.

· Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr participates in a fireside chat on financial inclusion with Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari, co-hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston and Minneapolis and the Federal Reserve Board (virtual).

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech on Artificial Intelligence and the Labor Force at the Ohio State University President and Provost’s Diversity Lecture and Cultural Arts Series, Columbus, Ohio.

· Brazil PPI (August)/ Net Payrolls (August)

· Canada Average Weekly Earnings (July)/ Wholesale Sales Prel (August)

· USA GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/21)/ PCE Prices Final Q2/ Pending Home Sales (August)/ Fed Barr Speech/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September/20)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing & Composite Index (September)/ 15 & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/25)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/25)

· Argentina Consumer Confidence (September)

· Colombia Business Confidence (August)

· Mexico Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Collective Security Treaty Organization exercises called "Indestructible Brotherhood - 2024" will commence in Kazakhstan.

· The editors of Hong Kong media outlet Stand News face sentencing after being convicted of sedition last month under a colonial-era law. The maximum penalty in the case would be two years in prison.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Foreign Bond Investment (September/21)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/21)

· Australia RBA Financial Stability Review

· Malaysia PPI (August)

· Singapore Industrial Production (August)

· Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Pope Francis commences a four-day visit to Luxembourg and Belgium.

· The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal Market and Industry) will meet in Brussels. Ministers will discuss the future of European competitiveness and how to tackle the challenges facing industry and businesses in the single market. The policy debate follows discussions on the issue at the European Council meeting of 17-18 April 2024, and the Competitiveness Council on 24 May, along with the presentation of former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s report on 9 September.

· European Parliament members and political groups will present their nominations for the 2024 Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought, the highest tribute paid by the EU in the field of human rights, at a joint meeting of the Foreign Affairs Committee, Human Rights Subcommittee, and Development Committee. The vote on the three finalists will take place in October.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank’s General Council holds a meeting (virtual).

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give the welcoming address at the 8th annual ESRB conference "New Frontiers in Macroprudential Policy" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives the opening remarks at the stakeholder meeting about the ECB Guide on Governance & Risk Culture in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul will chair a panel discussion at stakeholder meeting about the ECB Guide on Governance & Risk Culture in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will give the keynote speech at the 8th annual ESRB conference "New Frontiers in Macroprudential Policy" in Frankfurt, Germany. European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will give remarks at the Wirtschaftsrat der CDU e.V. in Stuttgart, Germany.

§ Shoib Khan, director of insurance supervision at the Bank of England’s Prudential Regulation Authority, speaks at the 29th Bank of America Financials CEO conference

§ The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority holds its annual public meeting.

· Great Britain Car Production (August)

· Germany GfK Consumer Confidence OCT

· Euro Area ECB General Council Meeting/ ECB Economic Bulletin/ Loans to Companies & Households (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August)

· Span Retail Sales (August)

· Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision

· Italy Business & Consumer Confidence (September)

· Greece Total Credit (August)

· Turkey MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/20)

· Ukraine Balance of Trade (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa PPI (August)

Friday, September 27, 2024

Global

· G7 Energy Ministers will meet in Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil.

· The Group of 77 (G77) Foreign Ministers will meet in New York.

· The BRICS Communications Ministers meeting will take place in Innopolis, Republic of Tatarstan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Higher U.S. tariffs on imported Chinese electric vehicles will go into effect.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman participates in a conversation at the Alabama Bankers Association Bank CEO Meeting, Birmingham, Alabama.

· Brazil IGP-M Inflation (September)/ Bank Lending (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (September)/ GDP (July)/ Budget Balance (July)

· Mexico Balance of Trade (August)

· USA Core PCE Price Index (August)/ Personal Income & Spending (August)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (August)/ PCE Price Index (August)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (September)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/27)

· Costa Rica GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Current Account Q2

· Paraguay GDP Growth Rate Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Argentina Current Account Q2

· Panama Current Account Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Turkmenistan Independence Day, celebrating when the country gained its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (September)

· South Korea Business Confidence (September)

· Japan Tokyo CPI (September)/ Coincident Index Final (July)/ Leading Economic Index Final (July)

· China Industrial Profits (YTD) (August)

· Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

· Taiwan Consumer Confidence (September)

· Thailand Industrial Production (August)

· Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (September)

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/20)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Czech Republic holds the second round of Senate elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane will give the opening remarks at a conference on "Fiscal Policy, Financial Sector Policy and Economic Growth" in Dublin, Ireland.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone will give the keynote speech at the "Economics of Payments XIII" conference organized by the Oesterreichische Nationalbank in Vienna, Austria.

· Hungary Unemployment Rate (August)

· France Inflation Rate Prel (September)/ PPI (August)

· Slovakia Business & Consumer Confidence (September)

· Spain Inflation Rate Prel (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ Business Confidence (September)

· Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (August)/ Economic Confidence Index (September)

· Germany Unemployment Rate (September)

· Italy Industrial Sales (July)/ PPI (August)

· Euro Area ECB Lane Speech/ Economic & Industrial Sentiment (September)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)/ Selling Price Expectations (September)/ Services Sentiment (September)/ ECB Cipollone Speech

· Slovenia Retail Sales (August)

· Ireland Wholesale Prices (August)

· Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (September)

· Egypt M2 Money Supply (August)

Saturday, September 28, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the 10th anniversary of the Umbrella Movement, the mass protests in Hong Kong over election rights and the ability of city citizens to pick their own local leadership.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 29, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Austria holds Parliamentary elections. 183 seats of the National Council and lower house of parliament are up. The far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) currently is polling at 26%, and the center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) led by incumbent Chancellor Karl Nehammer with 25%. The Social Democratic Party (SPÖ) is close behind with 21% (which means no single party will likely secure a majority, forcing a coalition government).

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (August)/ Private Bank Lending (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 9/21/24 Francis Kelly 9/21/24

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Get Ready for the Fed Governor Speech-A-Palooza, SEC Chair Gensler Defends His Agenda on the Hill This Week, and the Fed Holds Its Annual U.S. Treasury Market Conference

September 23 - 27, 2024

What is Fed Governor Speech-A-Palooza, you ask? It is when Federal Reserve Board Governors give seven separate speeches in a single day – this coming Thursday. Considering there are only seven Fed Governors in total, that is a lot. The Governors collectively will cover a wide range of issues: financial inclusion, the state of the U.S. Treasury markets, Artificial Intelligence and the workforce, the economic outlook, and monetary policy. Only Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and Governor Christopher Waller are not scheduled to give a public speech. For the whole week, they give a total of ten speeches or talks. Whew!

Of note, this coming week, the Fed is holding its annual U.S. Treasury Market Conference at the New York Federal Reserve. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and SEC Chair Gary Gensler will speak with Fed Chair Jay Powell and Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr.

Chair Gensler has a busy week ahead. He is also testifying before both the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee for the annual oversight hearings of the SEC. Watch for House and Senate Republicans to strongly challenge Gensler on his views of crypto regulation and hiring practices at the agency.

Looking at the past week, there are several items of note. Fed Chair Jay Powell spoke of the troubled regulatory effort to develop new capital standards. He promised that the regulator would "move as a group" to develop a new proposal—despite the draft not being completely finished, as the Fed, FDIC, and OCC are at significant odds on final details.

Also last week, the FDIC, the OCC, and the Justice Department finalized new rules that will give the agencies more power to scrutinize bank mergers – yet another chilling effect put into effect to bank mergers overall. The rules result from President Biden's executive order in 2021 calling for "revitalized merger oversight."

Finally, the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) held an unannounced meeting on Friday morning. The Council was given an update from Treasury staff on key themes in an upcoming staff progress report by the Inter-Agency Working Group on Treasury Market Surveillance. They also received an update from the Council's Climate-related Financial Risk Committee on progress over the last year on the development of risk indicators and narrative analyses to monitor climate-related financial risks. And they also voted to approve its fiscal year 2025 budget (a total of $14,783,781).

Below is a listing of all the other significant regulatory-related events this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· Tuesday, September 24, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Agriculture Committee will hold a hearing on the nominations of Marcus D. Graham to be a member of the Farm Credit Administration Board, Farm Credit Administration; and Julie Brinn Siegel to be a commissioner of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

· Wednesday, September 25, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee holds a hearing on "Oversight of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission." SEC Chair Gary Gensler will testify.

· Wednesday, September 25, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Budget Committee holds a hearing on "The Costs of Inaction: Economic Risks from Housing Unaffordability."

House of Representatives

· Tuesday, September 24, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing on "Oversight of the Securities and Exchange Commission." SEC Chair Gary Gensler will testify.

· Wednesday, September 25, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Financial Institutions and Monetary Policy Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Regulatory Recipe for Economic Uncertainty: The Endless Basel Endgame and an Onslaught of Hurried Rulemaking Undertaken by the Administration."

· Thursday, September 26, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Housing and Insurance Subcommittee will hold a hearing entitled “Vanishing Independence: How FHFA’s Political Agenda Endangers Homeowners and Taxpayers.”

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Tuesday, September 24, 9:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman

Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy at the Kentucky Bankers Association Annual Convention.

· Wednesday, September 25, 4:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech on the Economic Outlook at the Harvard Kennedy School, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

· Thursday, September 26, 9:15 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler participates in a Fireside chat on Financial Inclusion with President Susan M. Collins, co-hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston and Minneapolis and the Federal Reserve Board (virtual)

· Thursday, September 26, 9:15 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman participates in a discussion on the “Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” at the Mid-size Bank Coalition of America Board of Directors Workshop.

· Thursday, September 26 - The Federal Reserve Bank of New York holds its 2024 U.S. Treasury Market Conference. Scheduled speakers include Brian Smith, deputy assistant Treasury secretary for federal finance, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen, and SEC Chair Gary Gensler.

· Thursday, September 26, 10:30 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook participates in a roundtable discussion entitled “Artificial Intelligence and Workforce Development” at the Roundtable Discussion with Community Stakeholders, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and Columbus State Community College, Columbus, Ohio.

· Thursday, September 26, 1:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr participates in a fireside chat on financial inclusion with Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari, co-hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston and Minneapolis and the Federal Reserve Board (virtual).

· Thursday, September 26, 6:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech on Artificial Intelligence and the Labor Force at the Ohio State University President and Provost’s Diversity Lecture and Cultural Arts Series, Columbus, Ohio.

· Friday, September 27, 1:15 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman participates in a conversation at the Alabama Bankers Association Bank CEO Meeting, Birmingham, Alabama.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Tuesday, September 24, 9:00 a.m. – The SEC holds its Securities Enforcement Forum Central 2024 in Chicago.

· Wednesday, September 26 – SEC Chair Gary Gensler will speak at the 10th Annual U.S. Treasury Market Conference in New York.

· Thursday, September 26, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Monday, September 23, 2:40 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will be featured in a fireside chat, “Preparing for Digital Transformation: The Role of Regulation,” at the Global Blockchain Business Council’s (GBBC) 7th Annual Blockchain Central at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA).

· Monday, September 23, 4:00 p.m. – CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam will participate in a fireside chat at the API/ClearPath Carbon Innovation Forum in New York.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· Thursday, September 19, 10:00 a.m. – The NCUA holds a board meeting.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· Thursday, September 19, 11:00 a.m. – The FTC will hold an Open Commission Meeting. The Commission will hear a staff presentation on the Social Media and Video Streaming Services 6(b) Orders and a staff presentation on the Rule on the Use of Consumer Reviews and Testimonials.

· Thursday, September 19, 1:00 p.m. – The FTC will hold an informal hearing on the Proposed Amendments to the Energy Labeling Rule.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Sunday – Wednesday, September 22 – 25 – The Investment Company Institute holds its 2024 Tax and Accounting Conference in Boca Raton, Florida.

· Thursday & Friday, September 26-27 – SIFMA Holds their “Future of Asset Management North America” Conference in New York.

· Thursday, September 26, 9:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance holds an online event entitled Policy Implications of the 2024 U.S. Elections: Financial Regulation.

· Thursday, September 26, 10:00 a.m. – The Futures Industry Association holds an online seminar entitled “The CFTC’s Evolving Disclosure Requirements.”

· Thursday, September 26 – SIFMA holds its Global Tax Reporting Symposium in New York.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Monday, September 23, 2:30 p.m. – The Brookings Institution holds a discussion on "Making housing more affordable: Issues at stake in the 2024 election."

· Wednesday, September 25, 10:30 a.m. – The Brookings Institution’s Hamilton Project will hold a webinar entitled “Taking on Tax: Modernizing Partnership Taxation.”

· Thursday, September 26, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a virtual discussion on "The Economic Effects of Trump's Plans for tariffs, Deportations, and the Fed."

· Thursday, September 26 , 9:00 a.m. - The Atlantic Council GeoEconomics Center holds its Transatlantic Forum on GeoEconomics on "Next Frontiers in Finance, Technology, and Energy."

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Fulcrum Perspectives

The Sad Anniversary of Hamas’ Murderous Assault on Israel, Biden Travels to Germany and Angola, US Supreme Court Begins its Autumn Term, and Germany’s Foreign Minister to Travel to China

October 6 - 13, 2024

Sunday, October 6, 2024

Monday, October 7, 2024

Tuesday, October 8, 2024

Wednesday, October 9, 2024

Thursday, October 10, 2024

Friday, October 11, 2024

Saturday, October 12, 2024

Sunday, October 13, 2024

Washington’s Financial Regulators Go Quiet A Month Before the Elections; Face-Off Between the Fed and the FDIC on Basel III, and Regulated Election Betting Starts Up

October 7 - 11, 2024

U.S. Congressional Hearings

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Big Changes Are Coming to Latin America, How Russia and China Evade Sanctions Together, and How Monetary Policy Impacts U.S. National Security

October 4 - 6, 2024

How Will the U.S. Election Impact the Rest of the World? The BRICS’ Growing Power and Influence and the Geopolitics of Port Security in the Americas

September 27 - 29, 2024

Charleston, South Carolina - September 23, 2024

A Quiet Company of Dangerous Men: The Forgotten British Special Operations Soldiers of World War II

Sunday, September 22, 2024

Monday, September 23, 2024

Tuesday, September 24, 2024

Wednesday, September 25, 2024

Thursday, September 26, 2024

Friday, September 27, 2024

Saturday, September 28, 2024

Sunday, September 29, 2024

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