Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis, as well as book recommendations, travel observations, and cultural experiences - all of which we hope will be of interest to you.

Francis Kelly 7/5/24 Francis Kelly 7/5/24

Our Recommended Summer Reading List (Part II) - Plus, Some Great TV Shows!

July 2, 2024

As we promised in Part 1 of our Recommended Summer Reading Lists last month, here is our follow-up list of more books we’ve been plowing through this summer. Plus, there are a few shows we’ve become addicted to that we wanted to suggest to you. We would love to hear what you are reading (or watching) this summer - send us your recommendations. And we hope you enjoy this list!

At the Edge of Empire: A Family’s Reckoning with China by Edward Wong (Viking Press 2024, 45 pages)
Wong is a diplomatic correspondent and former Beijing Bureau Chief for the New York Times. He is also the son of Chinese immigrants who settled in Washington, D.C. His father had, before escaping to the US, served in the People’s Liberation Army but rarely spoke of life in China. Wong, when he became the Times Beijing Bureau Chief, decided to investigate his father’s mysterious past and, in so doing, learned and decided to write about what his family had endured and what the nation had experienced. It is a fascinating and highly insightful chronicle of the extraordinary changes China has undergone - and is still undergoing.

Moscow X by David McCloskey (W.W. Norton, 2023, 464 pages)
If you are looking for a ripping good spy novel, Moscow X is the book to read. McCloskey is a former CIA analyst who wrote regularly for the President’s Daily Brief, delivered classified testimony to Congressional oversight committees, and briefed senior US government officials. He then went to McKinsey, focusing on national security, aerospace, and transportation clients on a range of strategic and operational issues. Armed with these rich experiences, McCloskey gives us a fantastic, fast-moving yarn of global espionage, the vicious internal politics of Putin’s Kremlin, the lives of Moscow’s super-wealthy, and the never-ending shadow war between the US and Russia. And if you like this one, try McCloskey’s earlier novel, Damascus Station (which I couldn’t put down, either).

No Trade is Free: Changing Course, Taking on China, and Helping America’s Workers by Robert Lighthizer ( Broadside Books, 2023, 364 pages)
With the presidential elections fast approaching, understanding the thinking of Donald Trump’s foreign and trade policy is important. Lighthizer, previously Trump’s U.S. Trade Representative who oversaw the implementation of the tariff regime on China (which President Biden has essentially kept in place) as well as negotiation of the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade agreement, presents a crisp overview of what drives not just Trump’s but the current Republican view of free trade - essentially, there is no free trade and the US gives away too much. Lighthizer is no rube to Washington politics and policy, having previously served as Deputy U.S Trade Representative in the Reagan Administration, as an important congressional staffer focused on trade, and as a highly successful lawyer at one of the US’ biggest law firms. This is an excellent tutorial for understanding what is proving to be, in many ways, a rough Washington consensus on the future of globalization. And keep in mind: If Trump wins, Lighthizer is being widely touted as his likely Treasury Secretary.

Trade Wars Are Class Wars: How Rising Inequality Distorts the Global Economy and Threatens International Peace by Matthew C. Klein & Michael Pettit (Yale University Press, 2020, 288 pages)
This one is not new, but it was highly recommended by a friend of mine, who I consider a genius on trade and geoeconomic issues. The author’s premise is trade disputes are usually understood as conflicts between countries with competing national interests, “but they are often the unexpected result of domestic political choices to serve the interests of the rich at the expense of workers and ordinary retirees.” The authors go deep to understand how trade decisions are made, researching policy decisions in China, Europe, and the US over the last 30 years. The book is well-researched, provocative, and - following on the above book by Robert Lighthizer - is highly complementary and necessary to understanding how global trade policy is being rethought and reformulated.

The War Below: Lithium, Copper, and the Global Battle to Power Our Lives by Ernest Scheyder (One Signal Publishers, 2024, 370 pages)
Almost three years ago, the U.S. Congress approved the spending of almost $1 trillion via the CHIPS Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, and the Infrastructure Bill - all highly dependent on accessing and using “critical minerals.” On a global scale, it is arguably the largest single driver of geopolitical tensions literally everywhere in the world. Everyone talks about critical minerals. But to be honest, I find most people really do not understand what is at stake and what it takes to get those minerals that are powering electric vehicles, solar panels, cell phones, and millions of other devices. Scheyder takes us, via this well-written and well-researched book, to school us on it all. This book is the perfect companion to the 2022 blockbuster “Chip Wars: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology.”

The End of Everything: How Wars Descend into Annihilation by Victor David Hanson (Basic Books, 2024, 334 pages)
Military historian Victor David Hanson looks at a series of sieges and sackings in history to show how societies can and have been obliterated and that war is indeed hell and can wipe out a city, a race, a nation, or a culture.

American Buffalo: In Search of a Lost Icon by Steven Rinella (Random House, 2009, 304 pages)
This is an old one but one of my very favorites. If you are a hunter of fisherman, you probably know who Steve Rinella is - a chef, an outspoken conservationist, and a hunter and fisherman. In 2005, he won a lottery permit to hunt for a wild buffalo, or American bison, in the Alaskan wilderness. Despite the odds—there’s only a 2 percent chance of drawing the permit, and fewer than 20 percent of those hunters are successful—Rinella managed to kill a buffalo on a snow-covered mountainside and then raft the meat back to civilization while being trailed by grizzly bears and suffering from hypothermia. While that is all fascinating, what makes this book a true masterpiece is his deeply researched extraordinary history of the buffalo in America going back 14,000 years. I was blown away by what I learned and I promise it will give a deeper love for our environment and for one of the most majestic animals still walking the face of North America.

Television Recommendations

Clarkson’s Farm (Amazon Prime - 3 seasons and more coming)
I am blessed to live on a small farm - Open Door Farm - outside Washington, D.C. My wife is the farmer, and she’s quite good at it, raising sheep, chickens (Swedish Isebars), Turkeys (Heritage), Guinea Fowl (which eat almost 300 ticks a day!), horses, German Shepards, and Burmese cats. Growing up, I was rarely exposed to animals in general, and I cannot remember even stepping foot on a farm. It has been the greatest experience, thanks to my wife, being around all these animals. But I am most amazed by how little friends, associates, and business colleagues have been exposed to farm life, too. We are all the sad victims of a tech-dominant world with too many apps. Recently, I was asked to speak before a major midwestern farming organization, and in prepping for the event, I asked the coordinator (an agro-economist) what he thought was the best way for folks to learn about farming. Without missing a beat, he said, “Watch Clarkson’s Farm!” He was so right. Starring Jeremy Clarkson (best known for his long-running show “Top Gear”), it is a wonderfully funny, real, and massively enlightening way to learn how farming actually works - from raising livestock to growing agriculture. It shows episode after episode, the massive challenges farmers face getting food onto our tables - something we all take too much for granted.

Manhunt (Apple TV+)
We all periodically hear the complaint the US is going through the worst times in our history. Wrong. Watch this magnificently acted, historically accurate 7-part mini-series on the manhunt for John Wilkes Booth and his co-conspirators responsible for assassinating President Abraham Lincoln, the attempted simultaneous murder of Vice President Andrew Johnson, Secretary of State William Seward, and Secretary of War Edward Stanton just five days after General Robert E. Lee surrendered in Appomattox. If you watch this show, you will be given a fantastic lesson on what was the most truly perilous time in our democracy. And you will learn a lot about a truly great but largely forgotten American hero, Secretary of War Stanton. Stanton, deeply devoted to Lincoln and his vision for reunifying the country, personally oversaw the manhunt - often racing about the countryside with a Union Calvary unit, interrogating suspects and collaborators, all while overseeing the implementation of Lincoln’s plans for integrating freed slaves into American society - plans which were vigorously opposed by Lincoln’s successor, President Andrew Johnson.
I love history but was amazed at how little I actually knew about the true extent of the assassination plan: The role of the Bank of Montreal, of wealthy businessmen in New York, of the Confederate Secret Service, and the direct knowledge and approval of the plans by Confederate President Jefferson Davis. And how all of them were attempting to reignite the Civil War.
But the biggest surprise for me? I won’t ruin it for you, but just say make sure you watch the very end of the last episode to see the extraordinary thing Stanton did to stay in power so he could ensure Lincoln’s vision was put in place. This is a superb series.

Tokyo Vice (Max - 2 seasons - not clear if there will be another season)
It is an edgy, gritty, and always thrilling dramatization of the real-life story of American Jake Adelstein, who went to Tokyo and became a crime-beat reporter at the prestigious Yomiuri Shinbun newspaper. The viewer is plunged into the complex, tradition-bound world of the Yakuza, Japan’s transnational organized crime syndicates, as Adelstein endures intense threats to himself, his friends, and even his family back in the US as he writes about the powerful, sprawling Japanese mobs. Maybe best of all is the acting of legendary actor Ken Watanabe. The real-life Adelstein wrote his memoirs “Tokyo Vice: An American Reporter on the Police Beat in Japan” in 2009, which I hope to read later this summer.

Francis Kelly 7/2/24 Francis Kelly 7/2/24

GeoData

This is our weekly collection of important data points we believe may impact the future geopolitical outlook. We hope you find it useful. Please let us know if you have any questions.

Japan’s Answer to The Growing Shortage of Truck Drivers (Due to the Nation’s Spiraling Population Decline)? Build a 310-mile-long Conveyor Belt

The Japanese government has announced plans to build a 310-mile-long conveyor belt—an “Autotflow Road”—to move freight to and from Tokyo and Osaka. The belt would move the equivalent of freight that 25,000 trucks (and, thus, 25,000 drivers) move per day.

Why are they doing this? Japan’s dire population decline, it is expected that the number of truck drivers will shrink from 660,000 to 480,000 by 2030.

It should be noted the government is also making the point that they believe it will help reduce greenhouse emissions and ease Tokyo’s notorious traffic congestion. The expected cost would be approximately $500 million per 6-mile stretch.

But Japan is not the only country planning giant conveyor belt systems. In the UK, the British company Magway is planning a system that would send goods around London on a “magnetic surfboard” - a levitating magnetic field in hundreds of miles of narrow tunnels and pipes. And Switzerland is working on the Cargo Sous Terrain, a 310-mile network of underground freight tunnels. The first 43-mile section between Zurich and Häkingen is expected to open in 2031 and the rest by 2045.

Love Don’t Live Here No More: Majority of Chinese and Saudis Dislike Russia. Indians are Not Too Fond of Russia, Either.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has been focusing heavily on winning the hearts and minds of the Global South. We all saw his recent visits to North Korea and Vietnam, and he has been meeting with other leaders in Moscow on a tear. But this does not seem to be improving his or Russia’s overall approval ratings around the world.

Three examples: In a new poll released by Morning Consult, in China - which is seeing significant economic benefit from increased trading due to the Ukraine War - Russia comes in the low 40 percent approval range. That is down from a high of more than 75 percent in 2022. In Saudi Arabia - which Putin has tried but failed to build relations with - Russia comes in below 25 percent approval ratings. Even India - which, like China, has benefitted from a significant uptick in trade with Russia, particularly in the oil sector - seems to not like Russia much, coming in just below 50 percent.

The one factor that emerges as to why Russia is not building a fan base in the Global South is the invasion of Ukraine. All the numbers started to tank after Putin ordered the attack.

Corporate Earnings, the U.S. 2024 Elections, and The Constancy of Political Risk Concerns in the C-Suite

Political risk continues to be a consistent issue of focus among corporate leaders and in corporate earnings and projections. The New York Times Dealbook had an interesting little piece on how often the upcoming U.S. presidential elections are being mentioned in earnings calls.

In Q2, election-related issues have come up 364 times (per data provider AlphaSense.) - that’s more than in 2016 when the topic was raised 307 times but, as Dealbook points out, is below the rate that led to the all-time high of 902 times in 2020.

But we still have another reporting quarter to go - which I suspect will spike this number up considerably. At the very least, it shows that political risk is embedded in the corporate strategies of most major corporations (and that is a smart and good thing).

The Global Battle for Chip Supremacy is Really a Battle for High-Skilled Workers

In 2022, the U.S. Congress passed the CHIPS Act, authorizing $280 billion in new funding to encourage domestic research and manufacturing of semiconductors. So far, $30 billion in direct subsidies and $25 billion in loans have been handed out to support roughly $350 billion in investments. As the Semiconductor Industry Association pointed out, this is likely to trip U.S. chipmaking by 2023, taking the output of advanced logic chips from zero in 2022 to 28 percent of total global production.

But the big question hanging over the ultimate success of this massive effort is where is the U.S. going to get the workforce. As Bloomberg recently reported, “To build and run those fabs, however, companies need workers the US doesn’t have. Shortages of skilled installers of hyper-precise chipmaking equipment have already delayed projects. The number of Americans studying in relevant graduate programs has been flat for 30 years. A third of current fab workers are 55 and older, and more than half say they’re eager to quit. The Semiconductor Industry Association says chipmakers will face a shortfall of 67,000 skilled workers by 2030.”

Congress, anticipating this challenge, appropriated (only) $200 million to help build training and educational programs to help build the workforce. But that will not satisfy the challenge as current trends in the various programs of study necessary for chipmaking show.

What to do? Currently, there are two options, and they are not mutually exclusive: 1. Pour more money into programs for advanced degrees in the necessary fields for chip manufacturing jobs, and 2. Significantly hike the number of H-1B visas, allowing highly-skilled foreign workers into the U.S. Neither option is politically easy to achieve, but pressure will be growing in the next few years to move on both options.

Russia is Selling Ukraine’s Grain. And Among the Country’s They Sell It To Are Two NATO Members

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) recently investigated of what happened to millions of tons of Ukrainian wheat, grain, and peas seized by Russian forces. Incredibly, they discovered Russia sold it mostly to Iran, Azerbaijan, and Syria as well as Spain and Turkey - both NATO members. Using satellite photography provided by NASA’s Harvest Program, At least 6.4 million tons of Ukrainian-grown wheat alone was harvested by Russia and sold.

As RFE/RL explains, “…the European Union has banned over 91.2 million euros ($97.6 million) worth of Russian imports but has avoided barring Russian-EU trade in food and health products “in order not to harm the Russian population,” an EU explainer states. Clearly, Moscow is now taking advantage of this as a further money-maker to fund the war.

Francis Kelly 7/1/24 Francis Kelly 7/1/24

The Global Week Ahead

June 30 - July 7, 2024

Elections are again dominant on the global stage this coming week. As of this writing, the French far-right National Rally Party, led by Marine Le Pen, has scored a massive victory in parliamentary elections. A run-off election will be held next Sunday to determine how significant the margin of victory will be. But it appears it will be just short of an outright majority as French President Emmanuel Macron’s alliance of centrist parties are looking to potentially form an alliance with the far-left bloc to blunt the National Rally’s power in parliament.

Also this week, the UK holds parliamentary elections this Thursday . Looking at polls, the Labor Party is positioned to score a massive win – perhaps by the biggest margins in UK history. The Economist is estimating Labor could win as many as 434 seats – far more than the 334 seats needed to hold a majority. The Conservatives could shrink to as little as 106 seats from their current 365 seats.

But the most watched election-related event this week is not an actual vote but rather what President Biden will do after his disastrous debate performance. We do not believe President Biden will withdraw despite growing pressure, as most senior Democratic leaders (former Presidents Obama and Clinton, former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, etc.) have rallied to support the President staying in the race. However, the debate over the President’s mental and physical abilities and whether he should stand down will not go away any time soon and will likely intensify as Republicans get ready for the Republican Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on July 15.

Elsewhere in the world, the EU is set to make a significant decision this week. The EU will formally select its next Commission President, with current President Ursula von der Leyden likely to retain her position. This decision comes at a crucial time as Hungary, a long-standing antagonist of EU policies (especially its support for Ukraine), assumes the six-month chair of the European Union. EU leaders are actively strategizing to counter Hungary's potential efforts to implement policies that could undermine current EU's consensus policies.

We also note another change taking place this week in another important chair: At the United Nations today, Russia takes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of July.

On the global economic radar screen, the big event this week will be the European Central Banks Conference, which will be held in Sintra, Portugal. Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell and several other major central bank chiefs will be there, too, speaking on panels and likely giving important insights on global economic policy.

In the US, markets will look to the Fed releasing the June FOMC meeting minutes and the JOLTs and ADP data on Tuesday and Wednesday, leading into the overall jobs numbers report on Friday. Looking at Europe, Germany, Italy, France, and Spain release CPI reports. In Asia, China releases June PMIs and the Caixin indices, which will give a clearer indication of whether the country's growth is returning to normal. And Indonesia, the Philippines, South Korea, and Taiwan are due to release their June inflation reports.

Below is everything else we are watching happening around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, June 29, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Uruguay will hold primary elections ahead of its Oct. 27 general election

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China NBS Manufacturing PMI (June)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (June)/ NBS General PMI (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The First Round of parliamentary voting begins in France.

· Belgium’s six-month presidency of the Council of the European Union ends. Hungary takes the chair tomorrow, July 1.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Qatar will host the third U.N.-led meeting of special envoys to Afghanistan in Doha through July 1, and the Afghan Taliban will attend.

· Egypt will host the Egypt-EU Investment Conference in Cairo.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Unemployment Rate Q1/ M3 Money Supply YoY MAY/ Private Bank Lending YoY MAY

· Israel Composite Economic Index MoM MAY

Monday, July 1, 2024

Global

· Russia assumes the presidency of the UN Security Council for the month of July.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Panama will inaugurate Jose Raul Mulino as president.

· In Mexico, judicial branch workers are expected to go on strike to show their opposition to President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum’s legal reform plan that would make all judges elected positions.

· The US Congress is out this week for the Independence Day holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mexico Business Confidence JUN

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity YoY MAY

· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN/ Balance of Trade JUN/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN/ ISM Manufacturing PMI JUN/ ISM Manufacturing Employment JUN/ Construction Spending MAY

· Colombia Business Confidence MAY

· El Salvador Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1

· Peru Inflation Rate YoY JUN

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Hong Kong marks 27 years since it was returned to Chinese rule. Meanwhile, on the mainland, Monday is the first anniversary of an updated counterespionage law that expanded the definition of spying and gave authorities sweeping new powers.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final JUN/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM JUN/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM JUN

· South Korea Exports/ Imports/ Balance of Trade JUN

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN/ Inflation Rate YoY JUN/ Tourist Arrivals YoY MAY

· Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final JUN/ Consumer Confidence JUN

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN/ Business Confidence Q2/ Consumer Confidence Q2

· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN

· China Caixin Manufacturing PMI JUN

· Singapore Bank Lending MAY

· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final JUN

· Kazakhstan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN/ Inflation Rate YoY JUN

· Thailand Retail Sales YoY APR

· Pakistan Inflation Rate YoY JUN/ Wholesale Prices YoY JUN/ Balance of Trade JUN

· Sri Lanka Current Account Q1

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Hungary assumes the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU.

· The First payment to Ukraine of Russa’s windfall profits made from frozen Russian assets in the European Union are expected to be made.

· Armenia and Azerbaijan will submit work regulations to their governments for approval to resume operation of the bilateral border demarcation commission.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB President Christine Lagarde gives an introductory speech at the opening reception of the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2024 "Monetary policy in an era of transformation" in Sintra, Portugal.

· Ireland Consumer Confidence JUN/ AIB Manufacturing PMI JUN/ Harmonized Inflation Rate YoY Prel JUN

· Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI JUN

· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN/ Consumer Confidence Q2

· Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices YoY JUN/ BoE Consumer Credit MAY/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final JUN/ M4 Money Supply MoM MAY/ Mortgage Approvals & Lending MAY

· Hungary Balance of Trade Final APR/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI JUN

· Switzerland Retail Sales YoY MAY

· Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI JUN/ ECB Forum on Central Banking

· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN

· Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI JUN

· Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI JUN

· Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI JUN

· France HCOB Manufacturing PMI JUN

· Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI JUN/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI YoY JUN/ Bavaria CPI YoY JUN/ Brandenburg CPI YoY JUN/ Hesse CPI YoY JUN/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI YoY JUN/ Saxony CPI YoY JUN/ Inflation Rate YoY Prel JUN

· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN/ Unemployment Rate MAY

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The U.N. ban on Iranian production of IR-6 and IR-8 centrifuges will expire.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Kuwait M2 Money Supply YoY MAY

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI JUN

Tuesday, July 2, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell will participate in a policy panel discussion at the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum on Central Banking 2024, Sintra, Portugal.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In Thailand, election authorities will announce the names of 200 new senators who passed a final round of scrutiny, after an obscure process in which 20 professional groups nominated and voted for their peers without input from the general public. While the new Senate will not have a say in future votes for prime minister it will maintain oversight of the executive

branch and a role in appointing members of independent organizations such as the election and anti-corruption commissions. Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence Q2/ NZIER Capacity Utilization Q2

· South Korea Inflation Rate YoY JUN

· Philippines PPI YoY MAY

· Australia RBA Meeting Minutes

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· European Commission President Ursula von der Leyden is expected to be formally chosen for another term.

· In the Italian city of Siena, the Il Palio bareback horse race - where riders race each other through the center of the city – takes place.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos chairs Session 1 "The rise and fall of inflation in the euro area – past, present and future" at the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2024 "Monetary policy in an era of transformation" in Sintra, Portugal.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson chairs Session 2 "The economics of biodiversity at ECB Forum on Central Banking" at the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2024 "Monetary policy in an era of transformation" in Sintra, Portugal.

· European Central bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel chairs Panel 1 "Geopolitical shocks and inflation" at the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2024 "Monetary policy in an era of transformation" in Sintra, Portugal.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, July 3, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Grenada hosts a the 47th Regular Meetings of the Conference of CARICOM (Leaders from Caribbean Community).

Economic Reports/Events –

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to participate on “Panel 2: Drivers of Equilibrium Interest Rates" before hybrid European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking 2024.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Shanghai Cooperation Organization meets in Kazakhstan. The Organization is a China-led grouping considered part of Beijing's effort to promote an alternative world order. But there is no shortage of friction between the nine full members, which include India and Pakistan, Iran, Russia, and several Central Asian states. However, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is not expected to attend.

· Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Chinh will travel to Seoul, South Korea to meet with Prime Minister Han Duck-soo. Chinh will also meet with business leaders to encourage further investment in Vietnam.

· Indonesia's Ministry of National Development Planning hosts the Green Economy Expo in Jakarta from Wednesday to Friday. The CEO of energy giant Pertamina and the head of fertilizer maker Pupuk Indonesia are among those expected to attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos chairs of Session 3 "Monetary Policy Cycles" at the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2024 "Monetary policy in an era of transformation" in Sintra, Portugal.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone chairs Session 4, "Euro area productivity in the short and long-run," at the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2024 "Monetary policy in an era of transformation" in Sintra, Portugal.

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane chairs Panel 2 "Drivers of equilibrium interest rates" at the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2024 "Monetary policy in an era of transformation" in Sintra, Portugal.

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives closing remarks at ECB Forum on Central Banking 2024 "Monetary policy in an era of transformation" in Sintra, Portugal.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The BlueInvest Africa event, organized by the European Commission, begins in Diani, Kenya, to discuss opportunities in the “blue economy” – maritime and coastal sectors and interior waterways.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, July 4, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in the United States. Financial markets banks, and the government are closed so we can celebrate our freedom.

· Ecuador's United Workers Front union will march in opposition to the end of fuel subsidies.

· The political campaign period for the July 28 presidential election in Venezuela will begin.

· Argentine President Javier Milei will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, China (to be confirmed)

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The World Artificial Intelligence Conference begins in Shanghai, China. The state-backed four-day event will showcase the latest technology under the theme "Governing AI for Good and for All."

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The United Kingdom holds parliamentary elections. The Labour Party is widely expected to sweep the elections.

· The European Union's provisional tariffs on China's electric vehicles are due to take effect, barring an 11th-hour deal between the two sides. Europe in mid-June said it would slap additional duties of up to 38% on imported cars deemed to have been unfairly subsidized by the Chinese state. But the move has stirred concerns over potential retaliation, with major auto exporter Germany pushing for a compromise.

· Today is the deadline for the European Commission to decide on a proposed acquisition by Lufthansa of a minority stake in Italy’s state-owned ITA Airways.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the Master in Economics and Finance (MEF) 2024 Lecture at the University of Naples Federico II in Naples, Italy.

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in the 28th Annual Economist Government Roundtable in Athens, Greece.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a keynote speech at the 15th edition of the National Statistics Conference in Rome, Italy.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Friday, July 5, 2024

Global

· The 100th Anniversary of the Paris Olympic Games opening ceremony is today where the modern games are being held. This year’s Olympics begin on July 26 and run through August 11.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to give keynote before the 4th Suresh Tendulkar Memorial Lecture event organized by the Reserve Bank of India.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, will give a press conference at the NATO Headquarters in Brussels, to preview the NATO Summit in Washington DC.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in an 0n-stage conversation at the 24th edition of Les Rencontres Economiques d'Aix-en-Provence 2024 "Relier les mondes" in Aix-en-Provence, France.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives introductory remarks followed by Q&A on a panel entitled "Embedding data culture in supervision" at Data Innovation for Future of Regulation (DIFoR) Conference organized by the Financial Conduct Authority in London, UK.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Iran holds the second round of presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, July 6, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Tokyo votes to elect its next governor, bringing an end to a two-week race between incumbent Yuriko Koike, backed by Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, and her main challenger, Renho Saito, endorsed by the opposition. Over 11.5 million Tokyoites are registered to vote, and a record 56 candidates are on the ballot. The winner will hold the job for four years and oversee Japan's largest municipal budget.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· In London, the National March for Palestine organized by the Stop the War coalition takes place. Organizers expect at least 100,000 people to attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, July 7, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· France holds the second round of parliamentary elections.

· In Pamplona, Spain the annual Running of the Bulls takes place.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report

Francis Kelly 6/29/24 Francis Kelly 6/29/24

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

July 1 - 5, 2024

It is about to be the quietest week of the summer in Washington. Independence Day is on Thursday, and everyone is taking the whole week off. And after all the massive legal fireworks that happened last week, we (and virtually all financial regulators) badly need it.

If you haven't caught up yet, the U.S. Supreme Court handed down two pivotal decisions that significantly impacted regulators. The more seismic of the two rulings was the dismantling of the Chevron deference, a 40-year-old doctrine that mandated federal judges to defer to regulatory agencies 'reasonable' interpretation of 'ambiguous' federal laws.

What are the implications of Chevron's reversal? For those celebrating the ruling, "regulatory creep" in Washington is now in check. Hard stop. What we are curious about is what happens next – do we see a flood of lawsuits from various business organizations challenging regulations that have been put in place over recent years due to the Chevron deference? That could shake the financial regulatory framework to its core.

The second case saw the Supreme Court rebuking the Securities and Exchange Commission's use of their in-house court to resolve certain enforcement disputes. The 6-3 decision, hailed by conservative groups, is a significant rollback of 'regulatory creep' at the SEC. Practically, it means a defendant can compel the SEC to take their case to a jury trial – a costly, labor-intensive action that could deter the Commission from initiating a case.

Elsewhere, life does not get any easier for FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg. The National Treasury Employees Union (NTEU) – which represents FDIC staff – is fighting Gruenberg's efforts to get employees back into the office. Last Friday, Gruenberg issued a new order requiring employees to show up at least two days a week, effective July 15. The NTEU says the order is illegal, and Gruenberg had not consulted with the union, accusing Gruenberg of "bad faith bargaining." At this point, you must think Gruenberg cannot wait to get out of the FDIC.

And there was the release of the annual stress test results from the Federal Reserve. All 31 banks passed the test – which gave an opening to virtually all the major bank trade groups to argue this is further evidence the Fed's proposed bank capital rule is not necessary.

Speaking of the proposed bank capital rule – the Fed began shopping around a "revised" (read: scaled back) version of the rule. The revision has not been seen publicly yet, but the rumor is the proposal will scale back the capital increase number to 5 percent from the original 16 percent plus, but our guess is two things will happen: Progressive Democrats in Congress will not be happy with it, and bank trade groups will not be satisfied, either, saying it was not scaled back enough. The fight will continue.

As for what is happening this coming week, the only two events or speeches we could find scheduled among financial regulators are overseas: Fed Chair Jay Powell will attend the European Central Bank Forum in Portugal, and CFTC Commissioner Caroline Pham will participate in a conference in Zurich.

Below is a listing of what is happening at the financial regulatory agencies this week and in Congress. Please let us know if you have any questions.

Below is a full listing of what is happening at the financial regulatory agencies this week and in Congress. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

The Senate is out of session for the July 4 holiday and returns July 8.

House of Representatives

The House is out of session for the July 4 holiday and returns July 8.

Joint Committees

Congress is out of session for the July 4 holiday and returns July 8.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

Tuesday, July 2, 9:30 a.m. (Portugal time) – Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell will participate in a policy panel discussion at the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum on Central Banking 2024, Sintra, Portugal.

U.S. Treasury Department

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

Wednesday, July 3, 10:00 a.m. Zurich Time – CFTC Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will participate in a panel titled “Navigating and making sustainable the Al and DLT paradigm shift: Challenges and opportunities in the financial services market” at the Point Zero Forum in Zurich, Switzerland. Later in the day (11:50 a.m. Zurich time) she will participate in a “Capital Meets Policy” dialogue on the global AI regulatory landscape. And then at 1:30 p.m. Zurich time, Commissioner Pham will participate in a panel discussion entitled “Global policymakers’ dialogue on state of CBDCs and digital money regulations.”

FINRA

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

Monday, July 1, 11:00 a.m. – The FTC will hold a Closed Commission Meeting.

Farm Credit Administration

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

Tuesday, July 2, 10:30 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance holds an online event entitled “Enhancing Debt Sustainability and the Investment Environment: The Latin American Context.”

Think Tanks and Other Events

Monday, July 1, 1:00 p.m. – The Atlantic Council's GeoEconomics Center holds a virtual event, beginning at 1 p.m., on "marking the 80th anniversary of the opening of the Bretton Woods Conference.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 6/28/24 Francis Kelly 6/28/24

GeoData

Where Data and Geopolitics Intersect - and Explain Possible New Trends

June 24, 2024

US-China Decoupling in One Chart (with Two More Bonus Charts)

In the last few years, there have been a lot of discussions about the rate of decoupling between China and the US. We have noticed the discussion seems to regularly default to a month-by-month analysis or, at best, a quarterly analysis. Recently, CEIC Data published a two-year chart (2022 to 2024) showing Chinese exports not only to the US (which, indeed, have seen significant shrinkage) but also to the rest of the world.

The only actual increase, as the chart below shows, is to Southeast Asia, Latin America, and, of course, Russia. It is probably the best single chart we have seen so far, making clear how decoupling has taken hold and, more importantly, how it is not just a US-China issue but also one impacting the EU and Japan (who counts China as their biggest trading partner). And for the other major trading partner not listed here - South Korea - the second chart below shows their plunge in trade with China versus the spike in trade with the US.

Finally, the third chart shows how increasingly dependent China is on industrial production and exports rather than encouraging consumer spending. So, exports are driving China’s economic recovery—but not to the US and EU like it used to rely on.

A Common Question From Clients: Where Has All the CHIPS Act and IRA Money Gone? The Answer: Most of It Has Not Been Distributed Yet - Meaning The Massive Fiscal Boost Has Yet to Hit the Economy

There is a lot of excitement in the markets about the power of CHIPS Act, the Infrastructure bill, and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) spending to turbo-charge the US economy. But the real question is when can we expect it? From the charts below (courtesy of Politico), not for a while. So far, less than 2 percent of available CHIPS funding has been awarded by the Department of Commerce. The simple reason for this is the construction of semiconductor manufacturing facilities is anything but “shovel-ready.” It takes years - our understanding is five years minimum - to construct facilities. And you can only imagine how long it takes to plan such buildings.

The infrastructure bill and the IRA are moving along significantly faster in dispensing funds. But again, infrastructure building of any kind takes a long time to complete.

All in all, the size and scope of the fiscal spending of three bills are going to be a significant plus for the US economy - but not in time for the 2024 elections. And, if anything, Washington politicians will be lucky if it has ramped up enough to significantly impact the economy in a major way by the 2026 midterms.

The US Election, Gasoline Prices, the Budget/Debt Crisis, and the SPR: Is the SPR Doing OK and Is It Ready for a Crisis? And Who Knew Congress has Been Using SPR Sales for Budget Funding?

The Financial Times recently had an interesting and timely piece reporting how President Biden is prepared to use oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) again in an attempt to drive down persistently high gas prices ahead of the election. We have had the opportunity to do extensive speaking engagements throughout the Midwest and South in recent months, and in talking to a broad array of voters at all sorts of economic levels, the price of gasoline is the top complaint (quickly followed by high food prices). Heading into November, it continues to be a tough challenge for the Biden Administration as various geopolitical and economic factors have whipsawed the price of oil for the last three years, especially since 2022.

While there is little a President can actually do to drive down oil prices, one of the tools at hand is the ability to release portions of the SPR. Conceptually, added supply in the public market would seem like a smart way to push prices down. But In reality, SPR releases do little to impact prices as it just is not enough to impact the markets in a large enough way. Yet, President Biden (and previous Presidents) do it because, well, at least, they can look like they are doing something.

President Biden has used that tool with vigor. He first announced on March 31, 2022, that the Administration would release 1 million barrels of oil per day from the reserve for the next 180 days, selling it at an average price of $96 per barrel—making it the biggest SPR sale in 40 years. This sale also lowered the SPR to its lowest levels in more than 40 years.

So, that got us wondering: With news of a likely new Presidential mandate to release more SPR stock and ongoing - indeed, increasing - geopolitical tensions and rising shipping rates globally, we were curious about what the current SPR level stands (after all, the whole point of the SPR is have a massive oil reserve in times of crisis. And Republicans have been strong critics of the Biden Administration for allowing to get so low.

By way of background, the SPR is authorized to store 727 million barrels. Currently, according to recent Department of Energy stats, the current level is at 370.9 million barrels.

But there is another little known factor as to why the SPR is so low: Congress has figured out selling SPR reserves is a way to get additional revenue for federal budgets. For example, according to the US Energy Information Agency, “in 2018, Congress directed the sale of more than 100 million barrels of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in U.S. government fiscal years (FY) 2022 through 2027. Based on legislated sales established in multiple acts of Congress, the SPR could decline by about 40% in the coming decade while still meeting requirements for petroleum import coverage. Assuming no other legislation over this period, the SPR could decline from 695 million barrels at the start of 2017 to about 410 million barrels at the start of 2028.” That money has gone to help fund the Highway Trust Fund and other government programs.

I guess the point of this post is to ask: Do we take the SPR seriously anymore as a critical national economic security program? Or has its time of necessity essentially passed, especially with the ability of US producers to massively increase the pumping of crude at US sites if needed? Just looking at Permian (Texas and New Mexico) production, it seems there is more than enough oil if needed in an emergency.

And do US voters understand - as we march toward the November elections - that whatever President Biden does with SPR releases, it really is not going to impact the price of gasoline now or in the future?

Francis Kelly 6/24/24 Francis Kelly 6/24/24

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

June 24 - 28, 2024

The Dog Days of Summer are settling into Washington, DC, and it shows this coming week. Most federal financial regulatory agencies have little on the docket except for the Federal Reserve (see below). The U.S. Senate is out of session until July 8 (although the House is in session this week—more on that below), and everyone is looking forward to the Fourth of July holiday.

First, we note that the Federal Reserve is scheduled to release the results of its annual stress tests on Wednesday. The results will show how 30 lenders with $100 billion in assets or more would fare under intense economic and political scenarios.

Getting back to Congress, as mentioned above, the House of Representatives is in session this week, and the House Financial Services Committee has three hearings scheduled aimed right at regulators, as their titles make clear: "Stress Testing: What's Inside the Black Box?", "Solutions in Search of a Problem: Chair Gensler's Equity Market Structure Reforms," and "Testimony of the HUD and FHFA Inspectors General" (which won't be a boring hearing and go to mismanagement claims).

We should also note that when the Senate returns the week of July 8, the Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on Christy Goldsmith Romero's nomination as the Chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. We are hearing growing opposition among Republican senators to her nomination, and our assessment at this point is that getting her confirmed will not be easy or happen quickly.

Finally, looking at the speech calendar this coming week, we will be listening closely to Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman's speech, "Perspectives on U.S. Monetary Policy and Bank Capital Reform," at the Policy Exchange Event in London. It will likely be another clear criticism of the Fed's proposed bank capital rules.

Below is a complete listing of what is happening at the financial regulatory agencies this week and in Congress. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

The Senate is out until July 8. But when they return, the Senate Banking Committee will hold a confirmation hearing on July 11 for Christy Goldsmith Romero to be the next Chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

House of Representatives

·Wednesday, June 26, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Housing and Insurance Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Testimony of the HUD and FHFA Inspectors General."
Wednesday, June 26, 10:00 a.m. – The House Homeland Security Committee holds a hearing on "Finding 500,000: Addressing America's Cyber Workforce Gap."'
Wednesday, June 26, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Financial Institutions and Monetary Policy Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Stress Testing: What's Inside the Black Box?"
Thursday, June 27, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions Subcommittee holds a hearing entitled “The Role of the Export-Import (Ex-Im) Bank of the United States Amid Intensifying Economic Competition with China.”
Thursday, June 27, 12:00 p.m. – The House Appropriations Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, and Related Agencies Subcommittee holds a markup of the FY2025 Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, and Related Agencies bill.
Thursday, June 27, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Capital Markets Subcommittee holds a hearing entitled “Solutions in Search of a Problem: Chair Gensler’s Equity Market Structure Reforms.”

Joint Committees

There are no hearings scheduled at this time.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

Monday, June 24, 3:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives opening remarks at the International Journal of Central Banking Annual Research Conference 2024, Rome, Italy.

Tuesday, June 25, 7:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman gives a speech entitled “Perspectives on U.S. Monetary Policy and Bank Capital Reform” at the Policy Exchange Event in London.

Tuesday, June 25, 12:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech entitled “Economic Outlook” at the Economic Club of New York Luncheon, New York.

Tuesday, June 25, 2:10 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives pre-recorded opening remarks at the Midwest Cyber Workshop hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of St. Louis, Chicago, and Kansas City.

Friday, June 28, 12:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman patriciates in a conversation At the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute Leadership Council Conference (virtual).

U.S. Treasury Department

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

Tuesday, June 25, 2:05 p.m.: SEC Chair Gary Gensler will participate in a one-on-one interview moderated by Bloomberg Businessweek Editor Brad Stone at the Bloomberg Invest Summit in New York.
Thursday, June 27, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

Monday, June 24, 2:00 p.m. (East South America Time) – The Institute for International Finance holds its joint IIF-Interamerican Development Bank Tokenization Forum in São Paulo, Brazil.
Tuesday, June 25, 8:00 a.m. – The US Chamber of Commerce hosts former SEC Chair Jay Clayton as the keynote speaker for a conference entitled “Investors and the Markets First.”
Thursday, June 27, 8:00 a.m. – the Institute for International Finance holds its Global AI Update (virtual).
Thursday, June 27, 11:00 a.m. – SIFMA holds a Members Briefing (virtual) entitled “The US Economic Outlook.”
Friday, June 28, 10:00 a.m. (Central Europe Time) – The Institute for International Finance holds its IIF/AWS Digital Resilience: Six Months to Dora in Brussels.

Think Tanks and Other Events

Monday, June 24, 8:30 a.m. – The annual OECD USCIB Tax Conference is the premier US-based event of the year for up-to-date OECD tax policy developments and business interaction.
Tuesday, June 25, 9:30 a.m. – The Center for Strategic and International Studies holds a discussion on "AI (artificial intelligence) in the Field of Economic Development."
Tuesday, June 25, 11:00 a.m. – The Center for American Progress holds a virtual discussion on "Increasing Competition and Fairness in Food and Agricultural Markets."
Tuesday, June 25, 12:30 p.m. – The Tax Foundation is hosting an online discussion with Will McBride and Chris Edwards on universal savings accounts, their track record in Canada and the United Kingdom, and how they could help Americans save more.
Wednesday, June 26, 4:00 p.m. – The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research holds a book discussion on "Ending ESG (environmental, social and governance) and Restoring the Economic Enlightenment."
Wednesday, June 26, 12:00 p.m. – The Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies holds a virtual discussion on "The SEC and Cryptocurrency."
Thursday, June 27, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a virtual book discussion entitled “The Green Frontier: Assessing the Economic Implication of Climate Action.”

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 6/23/24 Francis Kelly 6/23/24

The Global Week Ahead

June 23 - 30, 2024

This week, the world and the markets will be captivated by the unfolding drama of US politics. President Biden and former President Trump are scheduled to engage in a high-stakes debate on Thursday night. The outcome of this debate, a pivotal moment in the political landscape, could reshape voters' perceptions of both candidates and sway the polls. Notably, this will be their last debate until September 10, adding to the anticipation and importance of this event.

Also this week, the US Supreme Court is expected to hand down a decision on the politically explosive issue of whether former President Trump can assert immunity for his pending federal case in which he was charged with conspiring to subvert the 2020 elections. If the Court rules in Trump's favor, then his January 6 federal case – which has been held up pending the Court's decision – will either proceed or be thrown out.

On the global stage, Iran is holding its presidential elections on Friday. With six candidates in the running, most observers are predicting a low voter turnout and the likely election of a hardliner aligned with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's policies. However, there is a potential game-changer - Masoud Pezeshkian, a reformist lawmaker. If somehow he gets elected, it could open a new avenue for improving relations with the US and other Western powers.

France begins its snap parliamentary elections this week. French President Emmanuel Macron called the elections upon seeing the results of the recent EU parliamentary elections. Since then, a coalition of right-wing candidates led by the National Rally's Marine Le Pen has surged to a lead and likely majority of the French Parliament.

Finally, the EU will hold a Conference on Ukraine's accession to become a member, a major step on the trek to joining the EU. Ukraine will be presented with a general Negotiating Framework, establishing the guidelines and principles for the accession negotiations.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, markets will look at inflation indicators published in the US, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. The US PCE comes out on Friday. Also, the Conference Board's consumer confidence gauge in the US comes out on Tuesday.

Turning to Asia, the Bank of Japan releases its summary of opinions from its June meeting. Markets will also consider the June Tokyo CPI, which comes out on Friday.

Below are the rest of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events and reports we are monitoring this coming week.

Sunday, June 23, 2024

Global

· The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) will hold plenary and working group meetings in Singapore.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Polish President Andrzej Duda begins a five-day state visit to China.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Thailand New Car Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will receive Argentina's President Javier Milei in Berlin. The two leaders are expected to trade issues.

· Estonia celebrates Victory Day, commemorating the post-World War I fight against Soviet-Russian troops and the Baltic-German Landeswehr Army.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a speech on the occasion of the conferral of the Weltwirtschaftlicher Preis 2024 to her by the Kiel Institut für Weltwirtschaft in Kiel, Germany.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 24, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on Somalia. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the. International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (IRMCT) and a briefing on Non-proliferation.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Senate is out of session until July 8. The House of Representatives is in session this week.

· The US Supreme Court will be releasing this week five major rulings, including their decision if former President Trump can assert immunity for his pending federal case where he charged with conspiring to subvert the 2020 elections. A second case will decide whether the US Justice Department properly charged more than 300 defendants for the January 6 uprising at the US Capitol. A third case will decide whether the Biden Administration improperly coerce social media companies to remove false or misleading content in violation of the Constitution. A fourth case will decide whether courts should defer to federal regulatory agencies interpretations of ambiguous laws. And the fifth case will decide whether governments can tell social media platforms how to moderate content without running afoul of the First Amendment.

· In New York, Genaro García Luna, former Mexican secretary of public safety, to be sentenced in a New York courtroom after his conviction of continuing criminal enterprise, conspiracy to distribute narcotics, conspiracy to import narcotics, and making false statements.

· Peace talks between the Colombian government and the FARC dissident guerrilla group Segunda Marquetalia will begin in Caracas, Venezuela.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The International Monetary Fund gives their formal annual “check-up” of the US economy.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives opening remarks at the International Journal of Central Banking Annual Research Conference 2024, Rome, Italy.

· San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly to speak on monetary policy and the economy before an event in partnership with the Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California and the San Francisco Press Club.

· Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks before the Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce.

· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (June)/ Current Account (May)/ Foreign Direct Investment (May)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (June)

· Chile PPI (May)

· USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (June)

· Paraguay PPI (May)

· Argentina Unemployment Rate Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Leading Indicator (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· A new session of parliament begins in India after the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won a third term in power following June elections, although without the sole majority it held for a decade.

· In Hong Kong, the Court of Final Appeal holds a hearing for Jimmy Lai, the British citizen and former newspaper owner who was arrested in 2020 for his pro-democracy activities and criticism of the Chinese Communist party.

Economic Reports/Events –

· In Hong Kong, Chinese property developers Kaisa Group Holdings and Shimao face court proceedings over wind-up petitions, amid the country's relentless real estate crisis. Kaisa's hearing is scheduled for today, while Shimao's is set for Wednesday.

· New Zealand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

· Japan BoJ Summary of Opinions

· Malaysia Inflation Rate (May)

· Singapore Inflation Rate (May)

· Taiwan Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)/ M2 Money Supply (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Financial Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg. The ministers are expected to talk about the situation in Ukraine, the War in Gaza, the situation in the Western Balkans, Georgia, and the Great Lakes Region.

· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Luxembourg. They are scheduled to talk about Russia’s actions in the Baltic Sea, future fisheries relations with Norway, and sustainable fishing in the EU.

· NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg travels to France for meetings with French President Emmanuel Macron.

· The European Space Forum takes place in Brussels and runs through June 25. The Forum seeks to encourage “discussions currently taking place around the future of the EU Space Law and other important policy initiatives, this is a crucial period for the future shape of the space sector in Europe. The conference will provide a platform for multi-stakeholder discussions around the path towards the EU Single Market for Space; as well as focusing more broadly on strategic pillars of sustainability, resilience, competitiveness, economic security and on ensuring long-term autonomous access to space.”

· President Alexander Lukashenko hosts Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov for meetings.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates in panel discussion at the ACPR Conference "Ten years of SSM banking supervision: key achievements and main challenges ahead" in Paris, France.

· European Central Bank Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo Mr. Fernandez-Bollo chairs Roundtable 1 entitled: "What are the key achievements of 10 years of SSM supervision in Europe and the main expectations for the future?" at the ACPR Conference "Ten years of SSM banking supervision: key achievements and main challenges ahead" in Paris, France.

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in a Roundtable at ACPR Conference "Ten years of SSM banking supervision: key achievements and main challenges ahead" in Paris, France.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a panel "Investing in Sovereignty – How to Create a New Single Market for a New World Order?" at Tag der Industrie (TDI) 2024 in Berlin, Germany.

· Switzerland Current Account Q1

· Turkey Business Confidence (June)/ Capacity Utilization (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/14)

· Germany Ifo Business Climate/ Current Conditions/ Expectations (June)

· Poland Retail Sales (May)/ M3 Money Supply (May)

· Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (May)

· Great Britain CBI Industrial Trends Orders (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Iran holds its third presidential debate in Tehran. The topic of the debate will be “Iran’s role in the World.”

· The 21st Annual Herzlia Security Conference will be held in in Herzliya, Israel. A number of senior Israeli and US officials, including US Ambassador to Israel Jacob Lew and National Security Advisor to Vice President Kamala Harris will speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)

· Kuwait Inflation Rate (May)/ M2 Money Supply (May)

· Oman M2 Money Supply (April)/ Total Credit (April)/ Inflation Rate (May)

· Jordan Industrial Production (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Global Peace Leadership Conference begins in Nairobi, Kenya. The event brings more than 600 delegates from 25 countries to discuss sustainable peacebuilding.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (May)

Tuesday, June 25, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East (Syria).

· The Wall Street Journal’s Global Food Forum begins and runs through June 26. Business leaders from the food industry and agriculture will be speaking.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· In Miami, Florida, a US Federal Court will sentence former British Virgin Islands Premier Andrew Fahie after he was convicted of conspiracy to import a controlled substance, conspiracy to commit money laundering, interstate and foreign travel in aid of racketeering, and other charges.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman gives a speech entitled “Perspectives on U.S. Monetary Policy and Bank Capital Reform” at the Policy Exchange Event in London.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech entitled “Economic Outlook” at the Economic Club of New York Luncheon, New York.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives pre-recorded opening remarks at the Midwest Cyber Workshop hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of St. Louis, Chicago, and Kansas City.

· Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

· Canada Inflation Rate (May)/ CPI Median (May)

· USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May)/ Redbook (June/22)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (April)/ House Price Index (April)/ CB Consumer Confidence (June)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (June)/ Richmond Fed Services Index (June)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (June)/ Money Supply (May)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (June/21)/ Fed Cook Speech/ Fed Bowman Speech

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· South Korea Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok and Japan Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki will hold meetings in Seoul. They are working on how to “take appropriate steps to stabilize excessive volatility in their currencies.”

· The National People's Congress Standing Committee convenes in Beijing for a four-day session. China's top legislative body has 10 bills on its agenda, including one that has raised eyebrows for seeking to ban behavior and clothing that "hurts the feelings" of the Chinese people. While there are likely to be draft changes, the current changes do not specify what images or words might be considered an offence, which could lead to a fine of 5,000 yuan ($680) or up to 15 days in prison.

· In Dalian, China, the World Economic Forum’s 15th Annual Meeting of the New Champions starts and runs through June 27. More than 1,500 corporate and political leaders are expected to attend.

· China's Chang'e 6 lunar probe is due to return to Earth carrying the first samples ever collected from the far side of the moon.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Consumer Confidence (June)

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change & Index (June)

· Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

· Malaysia Coincident Index (April)/ Leading Index (April)

· Japan Coincident Index Final (April)/ Leading Economic Index Final (April)

· Hong Kong Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· In France, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, National Rally president Jordan Bardella, and left-wing alliance leader Manuel Bompard will debate on national television ahead of the parliamentary elections which begin later this week.

· The EU will hold a Conference on the Accession of Ukraine to becoming a member of the EU as well as a Conference of Accession for Moldova to the European Union will be held in Luxembourg. Both countries will be presented with a general Negotiating Framework, which establishes the guidelines and principles for the accession negotiations.

· The EU General Affairs Council will meet in Luxembourg. Ministers are expected to discuss preparations for the European Council meeting on June 27/28, including discussing the situation in Ukraine, the Middle East, EU security and defense, and EU competitiveness.

· Today is Croatia Independence Day, commemorating the day in 1991 when the country broke away from Yugoslavia.

· Slovenia celebrates Statehood Day, commemorating when it broke away from Yugoslavia in 1991.
Economic Reports/Events –

· Spain GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q1/ PPI (May)

· Poland Unemployment Rate (May)

· Turkey Tourist Arrivals (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Iran holds its fourth and final presidential debate in advance of the June 28 election. The topic of this debate will be “The Economy.”

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· President of the Republic of Congo Denis Sassou Nguesso will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin during a trip to Moscow. Russia has been focusing on building their sphere of influence throughout Africa and, following a meeting between Putin and Nguesso during the Russia-Africa Summit last year, trade between the two countries has increased 85 percent.

· Kenya’s Parliament will meet to vote on proposed changes to the 2024 finance law which has led to massive public protests around the country.

· The Global Peace Leadership Conference will begin in Nairobi, Kenya. The event brings more than 600 delegates from 25 countries to discuss sustainable peacebuilding.

· Also in Nairobi, The Enhancing the Sustainability of Investment for Vaccine Manufacturing in Africa conference will begin and run through June 27. The event is funded by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development. Kenyan President William Ruto will be the keynote speaker.

· Today is Mozambique Independence Day, commemorating when the country declared its independence from Portugal after a bloody insurgency in 1975.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (April)

Wednesday, June 26, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on children and armed conflict.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo hosts in Washington, D.C. South Korean Ahn Duk-geun and Japanese Ken Saito to discuss stable supply chains and how to mutually address China trade policy.

· Mexico City’s Cutzamala water system could run dry.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The Federal Reserve publishes its annual bank stress test results.

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (June/21)/ MBA Purchase Index (June/21)/ New Home Sales (May)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (June/21)/ Bank Stress Tests/ Building Permits Final (May)

· Brazil Bank Lending (May)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (June)

· Canada Wholesale Sales (May)/ Manufacturing Sales (May)

· Argentina Current Account Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The US will commence Rim of the Pacific 2024 (Rimpac 24) military exercise, with 40 surface ships, three submarines, 14 national land forces, more than 150 aircraft and over 25,000 personnel taking part in the biennial exercise, this year hosted in Honolulu, Hawaii. It will run until August 2.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia Westpac Leading Index (May)/ Monthly CPI Indicator (May)

· Singapore Industrial Production (May)

· India M3 Money Supply (June/14)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The trial of Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich on charges of espionage begins in Moscow.

· British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and opposition leader Keir Starmer square off in a BBC debate ahead of elections on July 4.

· The sixteenth meeting of the EU Accession Conference with Montenegro at ministerial level will be held in Brussels. The meeting will take stock of Montenegro’s progress in meeting the interim benchmarks of the rule of law chapters – Chapter 23 on Judiciary and Fundamental rights, and Chapter 24 on Justice, Freedom and Security – and provide guidance for the work ahead.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the keynote speech at the Bank of Finland's 3rd International Monetary Policy Conference on monetary policy in low and high inflation environments in Helsinki, Finland.

· Germany GfK Consumer Confidence JUL

· Hungary Current Account Q1

· France Consumer Confidence (June)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (May)/ Jobseekers Total (May)

· Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (June)

· Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (June)

· Russia Corporate Profits (April)

· Euro Area European Council

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Composite Economic Index (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Madagascar Independence Day is celebrated, commemorating when the country was given its independence in 1960 from France.

· Somalia Independence Day is observed today, marking the day the country was given its independence by the UK.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (June)

Thursday, June 27, 2024

Global

· The G7 Education Ministers meet in Trieste, Italy.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF), to the Democratic Republic of the Congo sanctions, as well as to the African Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). Also, this morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Biden will debate former President Trump in their first presidential debate in Atlanta, Georgia. CNN is hosting the debate.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil IGP-M Inflation (June)/ PPI (May)

· Mexico Balance of Trade (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Canada Average Weekly Earnings (April)

· USA Durable Goods Orders (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q1/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (May)/ Initial Jobless Claims (June/22)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (June/15)/ PCE Prices Final Q1/ Real Consumer Spending Final Q1/ Pending Home Sales (May)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (June/21)/ Kansas Fed Composite Index (June)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (June)

· Argentina Consumer Confidence (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Business Confidence (June)

· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (June)/ ANZ Business Confidence (June)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (June/22)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (June/22)

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)

· China Industrial Profits (YTD) (May)

· Taiwan Consumer Confidence (June)

· Malaysia PPI (May)

· Philippines Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Council will meet in Brussels through June 28. The EU leaders will seek to come to an agreement on who the next President of the European Commission will be. Tensions have emerged between Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni and French President Emmanual Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz after they left her out of informal consultations on who should be the next president. The leaders are also expected to discuss the situation in Ukraine, the Middle East, EU security and defense, and EU competitiveness.

· In the UK, junior doctors in England begin a five-day strike in the British Medical Association’s ongoing dispute with the government over pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives a speech on banking supervision at a conference hosted by Allen & Overy in NeuIsenburg, Germany.

· The Bank of England publishes their annual report on the British financial system stability.

· Slovakia Business/ Consumer Confidence (June)

· Spain Retail Sales (May)/ Business Confidence (June)

· Turkey Economic Confidence Index (June)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending & Borrowing Rate (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/21)

· Euro Area Loans to Companies & Households (May)/ M3 Money Supply (May)/ Economic Sentiment (June)/ Consumer Confidence Final (June)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)/ Industrial Sentiment (June)/ Selling Price Expectations (June)/ Services Sentiment (June)

· Italy Business/ Consumer Confidence (June)/ PPI (May)

· Slovenia Retail Sales (May)

· Greece Total Credit (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Iran’s Presidential Election

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The UN-sponsored Africa CEO Summit begins in Nairobi, Kenya. The event brings together business leaders and policymakers from Africa to discuss the future of Africa.

· Eco t. nomic Reports/Events –

· South Africa PPI (May)

Friday, June 28, 2024

Global

· The Global Interdependence Center holds its Central Banking Series in Paris. Among the speakers are Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau and Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Peru’s President Dina Boluarte begins a visit to China where she will meet with President Xi Jinping. She is also expected to meet with the CEOs of Huawei and BYD, two firms winning market share in Peru. China is Peru’s largest trading partner and is trying to build a $4 billion deep-water port in in Chancay, Peru which is raising concerns in the US and elsewhere in South America. But the Peruvian government is disputing the terms of the deal and, for now, the venture is on hold.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman patriciates in a conversation At the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute Leadership Council Conference (virtual).

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to speak before the Global Interdependence Center/Banque de France" Central Banking Series: Paris" conference.

· USA Fed Barkin Speech/ Core PCE Price Index (May)/ PCE Price Index (May)/ Personal Income & Spending (May)/ Chicago PMI (June)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (June)/ Quarterly Grain Stocks – Corn/Soy/Wheat (June)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (June/28)

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (June)/ GDP (April)

· Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (May)/ Nominal Budget Balance (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)/ Net Payrolls (May)

· Chile Copper Production (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Manufacturing Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

· Costa Rica GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Current Account Q1

· Colombia Unemployment Rate (May)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (May)

· Paraguay GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Current Account Q1

· Uruguay Balance of Trade (May)/ Current Account Q1

· Argentina Economic Activity (April)

· Panama Current Account Q4

· Mexico Fiscal Balance (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Mongolia holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)

· Japan Unemployment Rate (May)/ Jobs/applications ratio (May)/ Tokyo CPI (June)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Housing Starts (May)/ Construction Orders (May)

· Australia Housing Credit (May)/ Private Sector Credit (May)

· Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (June)

· Philippines Budget Balance (May)

· Singapore Export Prices (May)/ Import Prices (May)/ PPI (May)

· Thailand Current Account (May)/ Private Consumption & Investment (May)

· Malaysia M3 Money Supply (May)

· China Current Account Final Q1

· Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (June)/ PPI (May)/ Balance of Trade (May)

· India Government Budget Value (May)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/21)/ Infrastructure Output (May)/ Current Account Q1/ External Debt Q1

· Pakistan Consumer Confidence (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Ukraine celebrates Constitution Day, celebrates the date of the adoption of a new constitution in the Ukraine in 1996.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany Retail Sales (May)/ Import Prices (May)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

· Great Britain Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q1/ Business Investment Final Q1

· Hungary PPI (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

· France Inflation Rate (June)/ Household Consumption (May)/ PPI (May)

· Spain Inflation Rate (June)

· Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (June)

· Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade Final (May)

· Italy Industrial Sales (April)/ Inflation Rate (June)

· Poland Inflation Rate (June)

· Slovenia Inflation Rate (June)

· Greece PPI (May)/ Retail Sales (April)

· Ireland Retail Sales (May)

· Russia Balance of Trade (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ M2 Money Supply (May)

· Ukraine Current Account (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Iran holds elections to select a new president after President Raisi died in a helicopter crash. Iran's Guardian Council, which oversees elections and decides who allowed to run for elected office, have approved six candidates. They include Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, Iran's hardline parliament speaker and former Revolutionary Guards commander, Saeed Jalili, a conservative, who was former chief nuclear negotiator and ran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's office for four years and Tehran's conservative mayor Alireza Zakani. Also approved to run are Masoud Pezeshkian, a reformist lawmaker, Mostafa Pourmohammadi, a hardliner and a former interior minister, and Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi a conservative politician.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Djibouti’s Independence Day is celebrated today, marking the day in 1977 when it gained independence from France.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa M3 Money Supply (May)/ Private Sector Credit (May)/ Consumer Confidence Q2/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Budget Balance (May)

· Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Kenya Inflation Rate (June)

Saturday, June 29, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Tourist Arrivals (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in the Petersberger Sommer-Dialog in Königswinter (Bonn), Germany.

· France Legislative Election 1st Round

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The 2024 Egypt-European Union Investment Conference will take place in Cairo, Egypt and runs through June 30.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Mauritania holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 29, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China NBS Manufacturing PMI (June)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (June)/ NBS General PMI (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The First Round of parliamentary voting begins in France.

· Belgium’s six-month presidency of the Council of the European Union ends. Hungary takes over the Presidency tomorrow, June 30.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Unemployment Rate Q1/ M3 Money Supply (May)/ Private Bank Lending (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Congo celebrates its Independence Day today, commemorating when the country gained its independence from Belgium in 1960.

· Today is Independence Day in the Seychelles, celebrating the day in 1975 when it gained its independence from the UK.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 6/21/24 Francis Kelly 6/21/24

Fulcrum Perspectives

July 5 - 7. 2024

July 2, 2024

Television Recommendations

June 30 - July 7, 2024

Sunday, June 29, 2024

Monday, July 1, 2024

Tuesday, July 2, 2024

Wednesday, July 3, 2024

Thursday, July 4, 2024

Friday, July 5, 2024

Saturday, July 6, 2024

Sunday, July 7, 2024

July 1 - 5, 2024

June 28 - 30, 2024

The French Elections

Tensions in the South China Sea

Russia/Ukraine

Americas

Middle East

Geoeconomics

Where Data and Geopolitics Intersect - and Explain Possible New Trends

June 24, 2024

US-China Decoupling in One Chart (with Two More Bonus Charts)

A Common Question From Clients: Where Has All the CHIPS Act and IRA Money Gone? The Answer: Most of It Has Not Been Distributed Yet - Meaning The Massive Fiscal Boost Has Yet to Hit the Economy

The US Election, Gasoline Prices, the Budget/Debt Crisis, and the SPR: Is the SPR Doing OK and Is It Ready for a Crisis? And Who Knew Congress has Been Using SPR Sales for Budget Funding?

June 24 - 28, 2024

U.S. Congressional Hearings

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

June 23 - 30, 2024

Sunday, June 23, 2024

Monday, June 24, 2024

Tuesday, June 25, 2024

Wednesday, June 26, 2024

Thursday, June 27, 2024

Friday, June 28, 2024

Saturday, June 29, 2024

Sunday, June 29, 2024

June 21 - 23, 2024

Global

Americas

China

BRICS & the U.S. Dollar

Africa

Geoeconomics & Finance

Chart of the Week

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