The Global Week Ahead

June 16 - 23, 2024

Last week was a busy week with the G7 Leaders' Summit and the Ukraine Peace Conference in Switzerland. This week will be less busy, but several important geopolitical events are worthwhile for the markets to watch closely. 

Of particular note, Russian President Vladimir Putin is embarking on two rare international trips, a deviation from his usual schedule since the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for his arrest.  His first stop is North Korea, marking his first visit since 2000, to discuss ongoing arms deals.  North Korea, in a show of support for Russia's War on Ukraine, is reportedly selling large quantities of ammunition to Russia, estimated to be more than 5 million artillery shells.  From there, Putin will travel to Vietnam for trade discussions and, potentially, another weapons deal.

Also this week, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell travel to India for the first meetings between US and Indian officials since India's recent election.  They are expected to discuss further advanced security technology cooperation between the two nations.

Meanwhile, German Economics Minister Robert Holbeck travels to China to discuss China-EU trade issues.  Last week, the EU slapped 28 percent tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle (EV) imports and is looking to apply similar tough tariffs on Chinese wind and solar exports, moves that have enraged Beijing.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, markets are likely to be most focused on economic data releases coming from the US and China. The US releases retail sales and industrial production data. There are also quite a few Federal Reserve Presidents speaking this week. China will announce its 1-year MLF rate decision and other key data releases later in the week.

Elsewhere, the Bank of England, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Swiss National Bank all meet on interest rates.

Below are all the other major political and economic events taking place around the world we are watching this week:

Sunday, June 16, 2024

Global

·        The Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha (one of the two main holidays celebrated in Islam) is celebrated through June 20.  Financial markets are closed in most Muslim countries.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (May)/ Wholesale Prices (May)

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 17, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Biden will host NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.  The Secretary General is visiting Washington through June 20 and will also meet with Secretary of State Antony Blinken and House and Senate leaders.  He will then travel to Canada to meet

·       The US Department of Agriculture’s agribusiness conducts its first trade mission on Native Nations agricultural products takes place in Vancouver, Canada.

·       The House of Representatives is out of session this week in observation of Juneteenth federal holiday.  House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and other senior Republican Party figures will travel to Florida to meet former President Donald Trump.

·       In Bolivia, protesters are expected to march against shortages of fuel and U.S. dollars, blocking roads and creating border closures.

·       The Russian Naval fleet that conducted military drills in Cuba will conclude its activities.

·       In Argentina, today is the Commemoration of General Don Martín Miguel De Güemes Day, a public holiday. De Güemes is considered a hero of freedom and “the hero of the Gauchos.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives acceptance remarks at the 2024 Marshall Medal Forum: A US-UK Strategic and Economic Dialogue in Chicago.

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker gives a speech at the Global Interdependence Center’s 42nd Annual Monetary and Trade Conference

·       Canada Housing Starts (May)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (April)

·       USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (June)/ NOPA Crush Report/

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Chinese Premier Li Qiang make joint remarks to the media after a signing ceremony in Canberra.  Li’s visit concludes tomorrow.

·       New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will visit Japan to meet with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. This is Luxon's first visit to Japan since he took the job in November. The two leaders are expected to discuss expanding trade ties and business cooperation, and exchange views on the increasingly contested geopolitical situation in the Indo-Pacific region.

·       China and South Korea hold a 2+2 Security Talks in Seoul.  

·       Pakistan's government will observe a three-day public holiday through June 19 for the Muslim holiday Eid al-Adha.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (May)

·       Japan Machinery Orders (April)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (May)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)

·       China House Price Index (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)/ NBS Press Conference

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       France begins the first official day of the parliamentary election campaign.

·       There will be an informal leader meeting of the European Council.  EU leaders will discuss the next institutional cycle. The European Council is central in designating the next high-profile EU-level roles, namely: electing the President of the European Council, nominating the President of the European Commission, and appointing the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.

·       The EU Environmental Council meets.  They are scheduled to reach a general agreement on the approach for the waste framework directive and also try to reach a general approach on the Green Claims Directive.

·       Today is Iceland Independence Day, marking the day in 1944 the country gained its independence from Denmark.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos gives remarks followed by Q&A at a seminar organized by the Universidad Internacional Menendez Pelayo and Asociación de Periodistas de Information Econónomica (APIE) in Santander, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in an on-stage conversation and Q&A at Reuters Newsmakers event in London, United Kingdom.

·       Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts

·       Italy Inflation Rate Final (May)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (April)

·       Euro Area Labour Cost Index Final Q1/ Wage Growth Q1/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (April)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Current Account Q1/ M1 Money Supply (May)

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)/ M3 Money Supply (May)

Tuesday, June 18, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on Sudan. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Ukraine.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan travel to New Delhi, India for meetings with India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval.  They are expected to discuss technology cooperation and the U.S.-India Initiative on Critical Emerging Technology (iCET) launched in January 2023.

·       Argentine President Javier Milei will visit Prague, Czech Republic.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler give a speech on  “The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, D.C.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to participate in an MNI Webcast discussion.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee to participate in"Economic and Monetary Policy" panel before hybrid 2024 Marshall Forum.

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem to speak at CFA Society St. Louis luncheon.

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan to participate in moderated question-and-answer session before the Headliners Club Speaker Series in Austin, Texas.

·       Mexico Aggregate Demand Q1/ Private Spending Q1

·       USA Retail Sales (May)/ Redbook (June/15)/ Capacity Utilization (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Manufacturing Production (May)/ Manufacturing Production (May)/ NY Fed Treasury Purchases 0 to 1 yrs/Net Long-term TIC Flows (April)/ Foreign Bond Investment (April)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (April)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (June/14)

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (April)

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin travels to North Korea for meetings with Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang.  The two leaders are expected to discuss additional military arms deals (North Korea is selling significant amounts of ammunition to Russia to assist them in their war on Ukraine).

·       Thailand is quickly moving toward a political crisis as the government is expected to indict former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra for allegedly violating the country's law against insulting the monarchy and for a computer crime.  Additionally, the Constitutional Court will hear a case to dissolve the country’s main opposition party, the Move Forward Party and hear a case seeking the ouster of Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin for appointing a convicted felon to his Cabinet.

·       China will officially mark its 618 online Shopping Festival, though early shopping is already ongoing.

·       South Korean doctors will strike to protest medical school admittance reforms.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Reserve Bank Governor Connolly Speech/ Reserve Bank’s Interest Rate Decision/ RBA Press Conference

·       Singapore Balance of Trade (May)

·       China FDI (YTD) (May)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing & Services PMI (May)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (June/18)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU General Affairs Council (Cohesion) will meet in Brussels. Ministers will exchange views on the link between cohesion policy and the EU strategic agenda for 2024-2029, set to be adopted by the European Council at its meeting on 27 and 28 June 2024.

·       The EU Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council (Transport) will meet in Brussels.  They are expected to agree the Council’s position (‘general approach’) on the following legislative files concerning maritime safety and inland waterways, respectively:  the new regulation on the European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA) and the revised directive on river information services (RIS).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       There is a non-monetary policy meeting (virtual) of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank.

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindo speaks at a joint conference of the European Commission and the European Central Bank on European Financial Integration in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone chairs Session 2  -"A single EU financial markets supervision - Approaches and potential benefits" at the joint conference of the European Commission and the European Central Bank on European Financial Integration in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (May)

·       Euro Area Inflation Rate Final (May)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (June)/ CPI Final (May)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (June)/ ZEW Current Conditions (June)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (June)/ Inflation Report/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Belarus GDP (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Seychelles Constitution Day, marking the day in 1993 when a referendum was held making the country a multi-party democracy.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, June 19, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and Libya sanctions.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US celebrates Juneteenth National Independence Day, marking the day when enslaved people in Galveston, Texas, finally learned they were free two years after the Emancipation Proclamation had been issued.  It is a national holiday.  Banks and financial markets are closed.

·       Today is Artigas Day in Uruguay, a national holiday.  It marks the birthday of José Gervasio Artigas, who is considered the father of Uruguayan nationhood.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA NAHB Housing Market Index (June)/ International Monetary Market (IMM) Date

·       Canada BoC Summary of Deliberations

·       Argentina Unemployment Rate Q1/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Brazil Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Premier Li Qiang arrives in Malaysia on the next stage of an eight-day visit to the region.

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Vietnam.  The US Government has rebuked Vietnam for visit.  Putin and Vietnamese leaders are expected to discuss trade, energy, and weapons deals.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Reuters Tankan Index (June)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

·       Australia RBA Chart Pack

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

·       New Zealand Current Account Q1

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (May)/ PPI Input & Output (May)/ Retail Price Index (May)

·       Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/ Current Account (April)/ Construction Output (April)/ Eurogroup Meeting

·       Italy Current Account (April)

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (April)

·       Russia PPI (May)

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Oman M2 Money Supply (April)/ Total Credit (April)

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       South African President Cyril Ramaphosa will be inaugurated for a second term.  Ramaphosa gained the seat after striking a deal with the opposition parties following a weak electoral outcome.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (May)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q1

Thursday, June 20, 2024

Global

·       Today is the Summer Solstice, the longest day of the year in the northern hemisphere, is also considered the first day of summer for that half of the world.

·       In the morning, the UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Maintenance of international peace and security: Cybersecurity. The Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to deliver remarks. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to speak before the Risk Management Association in Richmond, Virginia.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (June/14)/ MBA Purchase Index (June/14)/ Current Account Q1/ Initial Jobless Claims (June/15)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (June)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (June)/Philly Fed CAPEX Index (June)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (June/14)

·       Mexico Retail Sales (April)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (May)

·       Colombia Imports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Tokyo, the campaign to become the next governor of Tokyo (which is the world’s biggest city) begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Westpac Consumer Confidence Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (June/15)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (June/15)

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (June)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Final Q1

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

·       Indonesia Lending Facility Rate (June)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit Facility Rate (June)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (May)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup (EU finance ministers and central bankers) will meet in Luxembourg.  They are expected to discuss IMF Article IV review of euro area policies, the international role of the euro with regard to stocktaking, and various other issues.

·       Arnold Schwarzenegger hosts his annual climate conference, the Austrian World Summit, in Vienna.  Speakers include European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and UN secretary-general António Guterres.

·       The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Social Policy) meets in Brussels.  The Council will seek to agree its negotiating position on a proposed directive amending the existing rules on European Works Councils, which represent workers in large multinational companies operating in at least two EU or European Economic Area (EEA) countries.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany PPI (May)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (May)/ SNB Interest Rate Decision

·       Euro Area ECB General Council Meeting/ Consumer Confidence Flash (June)/ Ecofin Meeting

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (June)/ Auto Production & Sales (May)/ Budget Balance (May)/ Central Government Debt (May)

·       Greece Current Account (April)

·       Italy Construction Output (April)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (May)/ Employment Growth (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ PPI (May)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Serbia Current Account (April)

·       Great Britain BoE Interest Rate Decision/ BoE MPC Vote Cut/ BoE MPC Vote Hike/ BoE MPC Vote Unchanged/ MPC Meeting Minutes

·       Belarus Industrial Production (May)

·       Slovakia Unemployment Rate (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Unemployment Rate (May)/ Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Oman Inflation Rate (May)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (April)

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Martyrs’ Day in Eritrea, commemorating those who died in fighting for freedom between 1961 and 1991 when the country finally gained its independence from Ethiopia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (April) 

Friday, June 21, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA).  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Argentine President Javier Milei will receive an award from the Juan Mariana Institute in Madrid, Spain.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Economic Activity (April)

·       Canada PPI (May)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Raw Materials Prices (May)

·       USA S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (June)/ Existing Home Sales (May)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (June/14)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (June/21)

·       Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (May)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwan's opposition-controlled legislature is scheduled to hold another vote on a controversial bill that would strengthen parliamentary powers and, critics say, undermine President Lai Ching-te. The bill was already passed by the Kuomintang-Taiwan People's Party alliance, but Lai's Democratic Progressive Party government sent it back to parliament for reconsideration.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (May)

·       Australia Judo Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (June)

·       Japan Inflation Rate (May)/ Jibun Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (June)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (May)/ HSBC Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (June)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Bank Loan Growth (June/07)/ Deposit Growth (June/07)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/14)

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (May)

·       Hong Kong Current Account Q1/ Inflation Rate (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Germany's Economy Minister Robert Habeck will travel to Beijing, Shanghai and Hangzhou, China, through June 23.  Habeck is expected to discuss the EU’s tough new 38.1 percent tariffs on Electric Vehicles (EVs) and other trade measures the EU has taken against China.

·       The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  The Ministers will exchange views on the state of play of the implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), Russia’s war on Ukraine, tax policy, and an update on various financial services issues.

·       The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Health) meets in Luxembourg.  The ministers are expected to discuss ways forward for the regulatory incentives set out in the revision of the EU’s pharmaceutical legislation. The package aims to ensure the quality, safety and efficacy of medicines for EU patients and to harmonies the internal market.  They will also adopt a recommendation for setting out new measures on vaccine-preventable cancers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel on the occasion of the conferral of the Weltwirtschaftlicher Preis 2024 to her by the Kiel Institut für Weltwirtschaft in Kiel, Germany.

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (June)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing (May)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (June)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (April)

·       France Business Confidence (June)/ HCOB Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (June)

·       Germany HCOB Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (June)

·       Euro Area HCOB Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (June)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (June)/ PPI (May)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (May)

·       Slovakia Current Account (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Private Bank Lending (May)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (May)

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (May)/ Total Credit Growth (May)

·       Kazakhstan GDP (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Martyr’s Day in Toga, commemorating those who died fighting for the countries freedom which the country won in throwing off a dictatorship in 2005.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana GDP Growth Rate Q1/ PPI (May)

Saturday, June 22, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Emperor Naruhito and Empress Masako arrive in the UK ahead of a state visit running into next week.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Chad holds phase 2 of the presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 23, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The 10th SelectUSA Investment Summit takes place in Washington, D.C.  The Summit is the highest-profile event encouraging foreign direct investment into the US.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Thailand New Car Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Italy holds run-off municipal elections.

·       Today is the 8th anniversary of the Brexit vote in the UK.

·       Today is Luxembourg National Day, celebrating the official birthday of the ruler of Luxembourg.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

June 17 - 21, 2024

This week, Washington is experiencing a notable lull, primarily due to the Juneteenth holiday falling in the middle of the week.  The House of Representatives is on a break, and the Senate, although in session except on Wednesday, has a very light schedule.  This quiet period provides an opportunity to reflect on the recent activities and events in the financial regulatory sector.

Most federal regulators have little to no public events or meetings scheduled for this week, either.  CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam will be in Salzburg, Austria, to speak at the 2024 Salzburg Global Seminar Finance Forum.  SEC Chair Gary Gensler will give a keynote speech virtually at the Accelerated Settlement in the UK Conference, which will be held in person in London.

Last week was very active, highlighted by the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee, each holding their semiannual Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) review hearings.  Republicans on both committees took hard swings at CFPB Director Rohit Chopra’s agenda.   This came as Republicans introduced new legislation that would give Congress direct funding approval and oversight of the CFPB (currently, the agency draws its budget from the Federal Reserve). 

Also last week, the House Financial Services Committee held a tough oversight hearing into the scandals tainting the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and its Chair, Marty Gruenberg.  The two partners from the law firm Cleary Gottlieb, who conducted an independent investigation into the scandals, testified.  Also testifying were Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu and Johnathan McKernan, both directors of the FDIC.   It was a tough hearing and showed the political split on the board.  Hsu said it would be better for Gruenberg to stay until a replacement was named and confirmed by the Senate, and McKernan (a Republican) said Gruenberg should leave now.

However, these headlines were overtaken by the White House announcement of President Biden’s intention to nominate CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero to replace Gruenberg.  But that will not quiet the calls for Gruenberg to leave now – mainly because the political odd makers do not see Romero getting confirmed anytime soon – if ever.  Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) cheered her nomination and called her “my kind of gal.”  That is enough of a warning bell for Senate Republicans who were already aware that Romero had been strongly anti-bank during her tenure at the CFTC, usually siding with progressive groups on various policy issues.  Considering it is an election year – meaning the Senate calendar is pretty short between now and November, and traditionally, little gets done anyway – we think it is a long shot for Romero to get confirmed this year.

Below is a complete listing of what is happening at the financial regulatory agencies this week and in Congress.  Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

 U.S. Senate

·       There are no financial/regulatory-related hearings scheduled at this time.

House of Representatives

·       The House is not in session this week.

Joint Committees

·       There are no hearings scheduled at this time.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

• ·Tuesday, June 18, 9:00 a.m. – Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to participate in an MNI Webcast discussion.

• Tuesday, June 18, 12:30 p.m. Central Time: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem will speak at the CFA Society St. Louis luncheon.

• Tuesday, June 18, 12:00 p.m. Central Time: Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan will participate in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Headliners Club Speaker Series in Austin, Texas.

• Tuesday, June 18, 1:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech on  “The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, D.C.

• Thursday, June 20, 6;30 p.m. – Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to speak before the Risk Management Association in Richmond, Virginia.

U.S. Treasury Department

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• Thursday, June 20 – 9:30 a.m. – SEC Chair Gary Gensler will give a virtual keynote followed by Q&A at the Accelerated Settlement in the UK Conference, which is being held in London.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• Tuesday, June 18, 9:00 a.m. (Austria) – CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam will participate in a fireside chat at the 2024 Salzburg Global Seminar Finance Forum being held in Salzburg, Austria.

FINRA

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• Thursday, June 20, 12:30 p.m. – The Federal Trade Commission holds a Closed Meeting.

Farm Credit Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

Thursday, June 20 – SIFMA co-hosts with E&A their annual Broker-Deal Symposium in New York.

Think Tanks and Other Events

• Monday and Tuesday, June 17 & 18 – The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, and the University of Florida College of Law hold a discussion on "Complexities, Discontinuities, and Unintended Consequences of U.S. International Tax Rules: Options for Change.”  On Tuesday, they will hold two panels of particular interest to market participants entitled “Foreign-Derived Intangible Income Benefit" followed by one entitled "Taxation of Income from Controlled Foreign Corporations Stock: Sections 1248 and 245A"

• Tuesday, June 18, 9:00 a.m. – The Brookings Institution holds an event entitled “Outcomes-based financing: Possibility and promise in global health.”   They will discuss the use of impact bonds and other forms of outcomes-based financing.

• Tuesday, June 18, 12:00 p.m. – The Exchequer Club of Washington will host Jo Ann Barefoot, CEO and Co-Founder of the Alliance for Innovate Regulation.

• Wednesday, June 19, 6:00 p.m. – The Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies holds a debate on "Is the Wealth Tax Constitutional?"

 Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Iowa Farm Bureau 2024 Economic Summit

Des Moines, Iowa

June 14 - It was a tremendous pleasure to address the Iowa Farm Bureau’s 2024 Economic Summit in Des Moines, Iowa. The Farm Bureau put together a powerhouse slate of speakers and panels addressing the global economic, geopolitical, and market challenges farmers face today. Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austin Goolsbee was the keynote, offering some fascinating insights into what is going on with the U.S. economy and his views on when rates will be coming down.

You can access my presentation HERE. Let me know if you have any questions.

Recommended Weekend Reads

June 14 - 16, 2024

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   

Post-Election Mexico

• The Long Shadow of Violence in Mexico’s Elections   35 West Podcast/Center for Strategic and International Studies

  On June 2, nearly 60 million people cast their votes for the next president of Mexico, making it the largest election in Mexico’s history. However, the race was also marred by electoral violence, with more than three dozen candidates or prospective candidates murdered over the electoral season. Intimidation, coercion, and threats to family members further compelled many prospective candidates to withdraw from the race, illustrating the corrosive impact of violence and impunity for democratic institutions.  In this episode, Ryan C. Berg sits down with Chris Dalby, Director of World of Crime and author of the new book CJNG – A Quick Guide to Mexico’s Deadliest Cartel. Together, they discuss Mexico's evolving criminal landscape, the causes and consequences of electoral violence in Mexico, and what to expect from the new Sheinbaum administration's security policy. They also delve into the ways the United States and Mexico can reset security cooperation which has deteriorated in recent years.
  

• Populism’s Grip on Mexico: A Conversation with Denise Dresser   Foreign Affairs Podcast

  Earlier this month, Claudia Sheinbaum won a sweeping victory in Mexico’s presidential election. Although a lot of the coverage framed the results as a win for women and progressive politics, the story is far more complicated.  Mexico’s democracy is in trouble, warns Denise Dresser, a political analyst in Mexico. For years, Dresser has watched Sheinbaum’s party—and its previous leader, Andrés Manuel López Obrador—govern through polarization and the erosion of democratic institutions, even as the country struggles with violence, corruption, and persistent inequality. Dresser is a professor of political science at the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico. There is a chance that Sheinbaum will chart a different course. But if not, Dresser worries that Mexico could face an autocratic future.
  

• Inside Mexico’s anti-avocado militias   The Guardian

  The spread of the avocado is a story of greed, ambition, corruption, water shortages, cartel battles and, in a number of towns and villages, a fierce fightback.
  

• Latin America’s Big Opportunity   Shannon O’Neil/Council on Foreign Relations

  Over the last three decades, economic growth in Central Europe, East and Central Asia, Southeast Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa has outpaced growth in Latin America, where most economies have actually become less sophisticated and diversified.  But now, current global trends are creating an opportunity for a long-delayed takeoff across Latin America.

The UK Elections

• Who’s Ahead in the British Polls?  A Day by Day UK Election Tracker   The Economist

  With the UK general election being held on July 4, here is a link to The Economist’s special election website showing where the UK political parties stand in the polls. As of June 13th, Labour is leading the ruling Conservatives by more than 20 percentage points. The other parties include the Liberal Democrats, Scottish National Party, Reform Party, and several smaller fringe parties) stand in the polls. 

• How Nigel Farage Blew up the UK Election  Politico EU

  Two weeks ago, Nigel Farage, the leader of the Brexit movement, was looking at his latest vanity project looked as a likely busted flush. Now it has the potential to upend the U.K. election — and reshape the future of British politics for good. For the first time on Thursday evening, an opinion poll from one of Britain’s most respected pollsters put Farage’s startup venture, Reform UK, ahead of its long-standing mainstream rival, the Conservative Party.

NATO Policy

• Developing An Economic Security Agenda for NATO   War on the Rocks

  As the NATO Summit in Washington DC approaches in July, the authors argue he assembled leaders should therefore initiate a NATO Economic Deterrence Initiative aimed at fortifying economic resilience and deterrence capabilities across the alliance. This initiative should include proposals to revitalize consultations, intelligence sharing, and policy coordination on economic security, adapting the alliance to a changing global landscape and sustaining the cohesion and unity that underpin collective defense. By reintegrating economic security into its strategic considerations, NATO can ensure a more comprehensive and resilient deterrent posture for the future.

U.S. Elections

• 2024 Election Outlook (June 2024)  The Tiber Creek Group

  Leading Washington lobbying firm Tiber Creek offers a superb overview of the state of the 2024U.S. elections, analyzing the Presidential, House, Senate, and Gubernatorial races and all the many nuances that is making this election season like no other in recent U.S. history.
  

• RFK Jr. on Polluters, Falconry, and Assassinations   The MeatEater Podcast

  If you not familiar with the MeatEater Show or MeatEater Podcast, they are the wildly popular outdoors hunting television show and podcast hosted by Steven Rinella.  Rinella is an American outdoorsman, conservationist, writer, and chef.  In this podcast, he talks with independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.  Among the topics discussed: Brain worms (which Kennedy has suffered from) and bonding over parasites; getting mercury poisoning from eating all the fish you harvest; How Kennedy raised homing pigeons at age 7 and going on to become a master falconer; fighting polluters to keep water clean; making a list of every bad thing you ever did; focusing on what matters to people; government-subsidized vs. free market energy sources; Secret Service security; and more. 

Geoeconomics

• The Big Threat to Dollar Dominance is American Dysfunction   Steven Kamin &Mark Sobel/Financial Times

  In the 1960s, French finance minister Valéry Giscard d’Estaing lamented the dollar’s “exorbitant privilege”, longing for an international monetary system less reliant on the dollar and the shackles of US economic policy. In 2009, Governor Zhou Xiaochuan of the People’s Bank of China called for de-dollarization and a multipolar regime with an internationalized renminbi. Emerging markets joined the chorus, criticizing the spillovers from Fed monetary policy. But the wistful yearnings from seemingly every quarter of the world for the emergence of a non-dollar alternative system miss the point. Instead of reimagining the international monetary system, the focus should be on strengthening the underlying drivers and dynamics of the global economy.
  

• Food Policy in a Warming World   Allan Hsiao, Jacob Moscono & Karthik Sastry/NBER

  Do governments systematically intervene in agricultural markets in response to climate shocks? If so, what are the aggregate and distributional consequences? We construct a global dataset of agricultural policies and extreme heat exposure by country and crop since 1980. We find that extreme heat shocks to domestic production led to increased consumer assistance. This effect is persistent, primarily implemented via border policies, and stronger in election years when politicians are particularly responsive to constituent demands. Shocks to foreign production led to increased producer assistance, consistent with policymakers' targeting redistribution rather than price stabilization. Interpreted via a model, the estimates imply that policy responses almost fully stabilize prices in shocked markets, reducing losses to domestic consumers by 97% while increasing those to domestic producers and foreign consumers by 55% and 105%, respectively. Responsive policy exacerbates overall welfare losses from projected end-of-century climate shocks by 14%.

• Sleep: Educational Impact and Habit Formation National Bureau of Economic Research

  Abstract: There is growing evidence on the importance of sleep for productivity, but little is known about the impact of interventions targeting sleep.  In a field experiment among U.S. university students, we show that incentives for sleep increase both sleep and academic performance.  Motivated by theories of cue-based habit formation, our primary intervention couples personalized bedtime reminders with morning feedback and immediate rewards for sleeping at least seven hours on weeknights. Our results demonstrate that incentives to sleep can be a cost-effective tool for improving educational outcomes.

Technology

• The Big-Tech Clean Energy Crunch Is Here Wired

  As the world’s biggest companies race to build the infrastructure necessary to enable artificial intelligence, even remote Scottish wind farms are becoming indispensable. In Europe last year, $79.4 million was spent on new data center projects, according to research firm Global Data. Already in 2024, there are signs that demand is accelerating. Today Microsoft announced a $3.2 billion bet on Sweden data centers. Earlier this year, the company also said it would double its data center footprint in Germany, while also pledging a $4.3 billion data center investment for AI infrastructure in France. Amazon announced a network of data centers in the state of Brandenburg as part of a $8.5 billion investment in Germany, later dedicating another $17.1 billion to Spain. Google said it would spend $1.1 billion on its data center in Finland to drive AI growth.
  

• Catalyzing Crisis: A Primer on Artificial Intelligence, Catastrophes, and National Security  Center for a New American Security

  The arrival of ChatGPT in November 2022 initiated both great excitement and fear around the world about the potential and risks of artificial intelligence (AI). In response, several AI labs, national governments, and international bodies have launched new research and policy efforts to mitigate large-scale AI risks. However, growing efforts to mitigate these risks have also produced a divisive and often confusing debate about how to define, distinguish, and prioritize severe AI hazards. This categorical confusion could complicate policymakers’ efforts to discern the unique features and national security implications of the threats AI poses—and hinder efforts to address them. This report aims to: Demonstrate the growing importance of mitigating AI’s catastrophic risks for national security practitioners, clarify what AI’s catastrophic risks are (and are not), and introduce the dimensions of AI safety that will most shape catastrophic risks.
  

Leadership and Psychology

• CIA Clinical Psychologist Ursula Wilder on Profiling World Leaders   Intelligence Matters Podcast

  In this episode of Intelligence Matters, host and former CIA Director Michael Morell speaks with Ursula Wilder, a clinical psychologist at the Central Intelligence Agency, about why intelligence agencies conduct psychological profiles of world leaders, and how past policymakers have used what they have learned to make strategic decisions. Wilder, who also worked in CIA's counterterrorism center and Medical and Psychological Assessments unit, explains the "dark tetrad" of personality -- narcissism, paranoia, Machiavellianism and sadism -- and how those traits can influence how leaders make decisions and engage in negotiations. She and Morell also discuss how policymakers respond to psychological profiles compiled by government agencies. 

Minnesota Bankers Association 2024 Summit

Brainerd, Minnesota

June 10 -11 2024

Bankers in the Midwest are, in our view, particularly well-positioned to take advantage of the nearly $1 trillion in Federal spending aimed at encouraging semiconductor manufacturing, alternative energy development, and critical mineral mining. Minnesota is a fantastic example of this opportunity: Mineral rich, a beautiful place to live, great educational facilities, and a cost of living that most folks on either Coast would love to have.

It was my great pleasure to address the Minnesota Bankers Association on the geopolitics driving the race for global tech dominance and development. It was a wonderful conversation, and I’m hoping it gave the Minnesota Bankers Association members food for thought on how they can help drive this investment to their state. You can see my presentation to them below.

The Global Week Ahead

June 9 - 16, 2024

Despite the summer season, the upcoming week will significantly shape the trajectory of various geopolitical challenges in the coming months.  The G7 summit, to be held in Italy, is a pivotal event where leaders will delve into critical issues such as Ukraine, Gaza, and climate change.  Under the leadership of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, the summit has extended invitations to African and other global leaders, amplifying its importance.

Meanwhile, world leaders will gather in Switzerland for the Summit on Peace in Ukraine.  The meeting seeks to develop "a common understanding of a path forward toward a just and lasting peace in Ukraine." Russia has not been invited, and China says it will not participate.

Simultaneously, the urgency of the situation in the Middle East is underscored by the King of Jordan's call for an immediate meeting on facilitating aid to Gaza.  This high-level gathering, to be attended by regional leaders, the UN Secretary-General, and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, highlights the pressing need for humanitarian assistance in the region.

Amidst these developments, the BRICS foreign ministers are set to meet in Russia.   Notably, the Turkish foreign minister's attendance, as Turkey explores the possibility of joining the BRICS, could mark a significant shift in global alliances.   This meeting also marks the first BRICS gathering since Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates became members, adding to its significance.

On the global economic radar screen this week, the Federal Reserve meets to discuss interest rates.  Seeing the CPI release on Wednesday, markets will be keenly focused on what Fed Chair Jay Powell says during his press conference to indicate any hope for a rate cut this year.  The week ends with the University of Michigan consumer survey on Friday.

In Asia, the Bank of Japan meets on Friday to discuss rates.  While rates are unlikely to change, any guidance from the BoJ will be essential to listen to.  Also, China's inflation data will be out on Wednesday this week.

Finally, quite a few speeches are being given by European Central Bank board members that are worth watching.   The UK GDP is coming out on Wednesday. 

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events of note for the week ahead:

Sunday, June 9, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·      The Indian BJP-led National Democratic Alliance will officially form a new government. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will begin naming members of his cabinet.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Vehicle Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Parliamentary elections conclude, having begun on June 6.

·       Bulgaria holds snap parliamentary elections.

·       Belgium holds parliamentary (all 150 members of the Chamber of Representatives) and regional elections.

·       Switzerland holds a referendum vote on four issues (Premium Relief Initiative, Cost-Brake Initiative, Initiative for Freedom and Physical Integrity, Federal Act on Secure Electricity Supply from Renewable Energy Sources).

·       The Republic of South Ossetia holds parliamentary elections.

·       San Marino holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is National Heroes Day in Uganda, honoring the estimated 500,000 people who died in the Uganda Bush War that took place between 1981 and 1986.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 10, 2024 

Global

·       BRICs Foreign Ministers will meet in Nizhny Novgorod, Russia, through June 11.  The meeting is in preparation for the BRICS Leaders Meeting being held October 22-24 in Russia. his will be the group's first regular meeting since BRICS expanded this year to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. Foreign ministers from some non-BRICS members were invited, too, most notably Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, who will attend. 

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on UNOCA/LRA, followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the 1267/1989/2253 Committee.

·       The UN’s  3rd Dushanbe Water Action Decade Conference will be held in Dushanbe, Republic of Tajikistan.  Li Junhua, USG of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), will deliver opening and closing remarks as a co-chair and will also deliver remarks at the Interactive Dialogue 5 on the Water Action Decade.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will travel to Egypt, Israel, Jordan, and Qatar from June 10-12, 2024.  The Secretary will discuss with partners the need to reach a ceasefire agreement that secures the release of all hostages.

·       Mexican President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum’s transition team official begins working, and a number of key personnel appointments are expected to be announced.

·       US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will travel to New Delhi to for meetings.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate YoY MAY

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Israel to push for a cease-fire in Gaza.

·       The U.S. and Japan hold their inaugural meeting of the Defense Industrial Cooperation, Acquisition, and Sustainment Forum (DICAS) in Tokyo. Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment William LaPlante and Masaki Fukasawa, commissioner of Japan's Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics Agency,  meet with representatives from American and Japanese defense contractors to discuss co-production of missiles and ship repair of U.S. Navy ships at Japanese private shipyards.

·       The U.S. and South Korea will hold the third meeting of the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) in Seoul to discuss further ways to deter North Korea's nuclear threat. Established under the Washington Declaration when presidents Joe Biden and Yoon Suk Yeol met in April last year, the NCG arranged the  Ohio-class nuclear ballistic missile submarine USS Kentucky's port call to Busan last June, the first such visit by a ballistic missile submarine in four decades.

·       The Korea-Latin America Future Cooperation Forum will begin in Seoul, South Korea.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Malaysia Industrial Production YoY APR/ Unemployment Rate APR

·       Japan Eco Watchers Survey Current MAY

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves MAY

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU is expected to announce its decision on whether to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.

·       Poland will hold a National Security Council meeting over border tensions with Belarus.

· Chancellor Olaf Scholz receives Chile President Gabriel Boric with military honors, followed by a press conference.

·       Today is Portugal Day, also known as “Dia de Portugal, de Camões e das Comunidades Portuguesas.”  The day commemorates the death of Luís de Camões who is recognized as the country’s greatest nation icon.  He is most known for his poem which narrates the story of Portuguese explorations in the 15th century.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Romania Balance of Trade APR

·       Hungary Inflation Rate YoY MAY

·       Slovakia Industrial Production YoY APR

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence MAY

·       Turkey Industrial Production YoY APR/ Unemployment Rate APR/ Current Account APR/ Participation Rate APR

·       Italy Industrial Production YoY APR

·       Slovenia Industrial Production YoY APR

·       Greece Inflation Rate YoY MAY

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate YoY MAY

·       Belarus Inflation Rate YoY MAY

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iran’s Guardian Council will announce the official candidates allowed to run for president in the wake of the June 28 death of President Ebrahim Raisi.  Iranian state media have reported that the speaker of parliament, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, a former Revolutionary Guards commander who lost his bid in two previous presidential polls, is among the candidates. Other well-known figures who have signed up include hardline former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and former Speaker Ali Larijani, a prominent conservative and ally of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. 

·       Iraqi Kurdistan holds regional elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production YoY APR

·       Jordan Inflation Rate YoY MAY

·       Israel Consumer Confidence MAY

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation Rate YoY MAY

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate YoY MAY

Tuesday, June 11, 2024 

Global

·       UN Secretary-General António Guterres will attend a High-Level Conference on Gaza. The “Call for Action: Urgent Humanitarian Aid for Gaza” conference will be held at the invitation of His Majesty King Abdullah II, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, and the Secretary-General of the United Nations. 

·       OPEC Releases its Monthly Oil Market Report.

The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (IRMCT). In the afternoon, the Security Council is expected to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Syria).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Trade Representative Katherine Tai travels to Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan through June 15.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index MAY/ Redbook YoY JUN/08/ API Crude Oil Stock Change JUN/07

·       Brazil Inflation Rate YoY MAY

·       Mexico Industrial Production YoY APR

·       Canada Building Permits MoM APR

·       Colombia Inflation Rate YoY MAY

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account APR

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade APR

·       Australia NAB Business Confidence MAY

·       Indonesia Retail Sales YoY APR

·       Malaysia Retail Sales YoY APR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Ukraine Recovery Conference begins in Berlin, Germany, and runs through June 12.  International leaders will attend the conference, which is being hosted by the German Foreign Office and the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ). The URC2024 is a continuation of the annual series of high-level political events dedicated to the swift recovery and long-term reconstruction of Ukraine since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine. It is also the first Ukraine Recovery Conference hosted in an EU member state and comes at a critical time for Ukraine. The conference will reflect the Lugano Principles, including a “whole of society” approach to recovery through the meaningful participation of a broad range of stakeholders. 

·       NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will visit Riga, Latvia. He will participate in the B9 Summit, hosted by the President of Latvia, Edgars Rinkēvičs, the President of Romania, Klaus Iohannis, and the President of Poland, Andrzej Duda.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Claudia Buch gives the opening keynote speech at the 2024 Annual ECB Banking Supervision Research Conference in Frankfurt.  ECB Board Member Frank Elderson will give the dinner speech.

·       ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a fireside chat at the Banking and Payments Federation Ireland National Conference in Dublin.

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate APR/ HMRC Payrolls Change MAY

·       Turkey Retail Sales YoY APR

·       Russia Balance of Trade APR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Jordan will host an International Conference on Humanitarian Aid to Gaza. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will participate as will the UN Secretary General and other leaders.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Balance of Trade APR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production YoY APR

Wednesday, June 12, 2024

Global

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold s briefing on North Korea.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the commemoration of the Chaco Armistice, a national holiday in Paraguay commemorating the end of the Chaco War between Paraguay and Bolivia in the 1930s. .

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee meets on the economy and interest rates.  Fed Chair Jay Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index JUN/07/ Inflation Rate YoY MAY/ CPI MAY/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change JUN/07/ Consumer Inflation Expectations MAY/ WASDE Report/ / FOMC Economic Projections/ Monthly Budget Statement MAY/ Interest Rate Projection – Current/

·       Uruguay Industrial Production YoY APR

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade APR

·       Peru Balance of Trade APR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate MAY

·       Japan PPI YoY MAY/ Machine Tool Orders YoY MAY

·       China Inflation Rate YoY MAY/ PPI YoY MAY

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence MAY/ M3 Money Supply YoY MAY/31

·       Thailand Interest Rate Decision

·       India Industrial Production YoY APR/ Inflation Rate YoY MAY/ Manufacturing Production YoY APR

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence MAY

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·      British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Labor Leader Keir Starmer participate in their second debate on Sky News.

·       Russian FM Lavrov meets Cuban counterpart Bruno Eduardo Rodríguez Parrilla on the sidelines of the BRICS Foreign Minister Meeting.

·      Today is Peace Day in Kosovo, celebrating the ceasefire in the Kosovo War in 1999.

·      Today is Russia Day, a national holiday in Russia. Originally, the holiday was known as the Russia Independence Day celebrating the disintegration of the Soviet Union.  President Putin changed the name and meaning of the day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Anneli Tuominen will participate in a panel discussion at the 2024 Bundesbank Symposium in Frankfurt.  Later in the day, ECB Board Member Claudia Buch will speak.

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel will testify before the Finance Committee of the German Bundestag in Berlin.

·       ECB Board Vice President Luis de Guindos will give remarks and participate in a Q&A at MNI Connect event in London.

·       ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul will give a keynote speech at the Central Banking's Summer Meetings in London.

·       Germany Inflation Rate YoY Final MAY/ Current Account APR

·       Romania Inflation Rate YoY MAY

·       Great Britain GDP YoY APR/ Goods Trade Balance APR/ Balance of Trade APR/ Industrial & Manufacturing Production YoY APR/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker MAY

·       Slovakia Construction Output YoY APR

·       Russia Inflation Rate YoY MAY

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The African Export-Import Bank annual meetings and the AfriCaribbean Trade and Investment Forum will be held in Nassau, The Bahamas, under the theme ‘Owning Our Destiny: Economic Prosperity on the Platform of Global Africa.’

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Inflation Rate YoY MAY

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate YoY MAY

·       Mozambique GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1

Thursday, June 13, 2024

Global

·       The G7 Leaders’ Summit begins in Apulia, Italy, and goes through June 14.  This year the G7 is chaired by Italy and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.  The main issues to be addressed during the six working sessions are: Africa, climate change and development, the ongoing situation in the Middle East, Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, migration, Indo-Pacific/economic security, artificial intelligence, and energy/Africa and the Mediterranean region, The Italian presidency has also invited leaders from 12 countries and 5 international organizations to take part in some working sessions during the summit. African leaders from Kenya, Algeria, Egypt, South Africa, and Tunisia will attend.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing in the morning on the Middle East followed by consultations (Yemen). In the afternoon, the Security Council is expected to hold a briefing on 1591 Committee, followed by consultations on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams will moderate a discussion with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen before the Economic Club of New York.

·       US Export Sales, PPI (May), Initial Jobless Claims (June 1), EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (June 7)

·       Brazil Retail Sales (April)

·       Argentina Inflation ((May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY MAY

·       Japan BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ Q2/ Foreign Bond Investment JUN/08/ Stock Investment by Foreigners JUN/08

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index JUN/ Employment Change MAY/ Unemployment Rate MAY/ Participation Rate MAY

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment MAR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Defense Ministers will meet in Brussels and participate in the NATO-Ukraine Council.

· NATO holds Tiger Meet 2024, a NATO aircraft exercise in Schleswig Air Base Germany.

·       The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  The presidency will inform ministers about the state of play of a legislative proposal to combat child sexual abuse. The proposed EU law would make it mandatory for internet companies to alert the authorities about online child sexual abuse on their platforms. A planned EU center would support authorities acting on reports of child sexual abuse and collect and share expertise and best practices in prevention and victim support.  Ministers will also discuss the extension of the temporary protection for persons having fled from Ukraine after the start of the war. This protection – which was activated on 4 March 2022 – allows displaced persons from Ukraine to reside in the EU and to enjoy rights related to, for instance, residence and medical assistance across the EU. It was initially granted for one year and has been extended until 4 March 2025. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance MAY

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (May)

·       Spain Inflation (May)

·       Eurozone Industrial Production (April)

·        

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey FX Reserves (June 7)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (April), Mining Production (April)

Friday, June 14, 2024

Global

The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the maintenance of international peace and security. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US celebrates Flag Day, commemorating the day in 1777 when the Second Continental Congress adopted the first US national flag.

·       Today is Falkland Islands Liberation Day, celebrating the day in 1982 when the British military liberated the island from Argentine military occupation.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook will give a speech entitled “Lessons from the American Economic Association Summer Program” at the Celebrating 50 Years of the American Economic Association Summer Program, Washington, D.C.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee to participate in a fireside chat before the Iowa Farm Bureau Economic Summit in Des Moines, Iowa.

·       US Export Prices and Import Prices (May), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (June), Michigan Inflation Expectations (June), Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (June 14)

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (April)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales & Wholesale Sales (April), New Motor Vehicle Sales (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China New Yuan Loans (May), M2 Money Supply (May), Outstanding Loan Growth (May), Total Social Financing (May)

·       Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision, Japan Capacity Utilization (April), Industrial Production (April), Tertiary Industry Index (April)

·       South Korea Import/Export Prices (May)

·       India Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May),  WPI Food Index (May), WPI Fuel Index (May), WPI Inflation (May), WPI Manufacturing (May)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)

·       Singapore Unemployment (Q1)

·       Indonesia Car Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Justice) meets in Brussels. Ministers will hold two policy debates. The first debate touches on a proposed regulation that aims to facilitate the recognition in a member state of the parenthood of a child that has been established in another member state. The exchange will, in particular, address the recognition of surrogacy parenthood. A second debate addresses the proposed update of a directive from 2011 on combating the sexual abuse and sexual exploitation of children and child pornography. The goal is to expand the definitions of these offenses and to introduce higher penalties and more specific requirements for prevention and assistance to victims.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a speech at the 30th Dubrovnik Economic Conference in Dubrovnik.

·       ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane will participate on panel at the 30th Dubrovnik Economic Conference in Dubrovnik.

·       ECB Board Vice President Luis de Guindos participates in the Award ceremony of the Carlos V European Prize to Mr. Mario Draghi.

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a virtual meeting of the European Fiscal Board.

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a speech at the Lions Club Dortmund in Dortmund, Germany.

·       France Inflation (May)

·       Italy Balance of Trade (April)

·       Eurozone Balance of Trade (April)

·       Russia Inflation (May), GDP (Q1)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Budget Balance (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (April & May)

Saturday, June 15, 2024

Global

·       Switzerland will host a Summit on Peace in Ukraine in Bürgenstock.  The goal of the meeting is to bring heads of states together to develop “a common understanding of a path forward toward a just and lasting peace in Ukraine.”  The summit, in which more than 108 countries will be represented, will build on broad international support for Ukrainian President Zelensky’s peace proposals, which include a full withdrawal of Russian troops.  Moscow has not been invited, and China says it will not participate.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China’s coastguard law, regulations on the Administrative Law Enforcement Procedures for Coast Guard Agencies, goes into force.  The law could and likely will lead to direct military confrontation with Philippine, US, and other shipping moving through waters China is claiming as their own and which is disputed by the Philippines and other nations.

·       Today is National Salvation Day in Azerbaijan.  The day commemorates the return to power of the national leader, Heydar Aliyev, to Baku in 1993 helping to end political chaos and the risk of civil war.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China FDI (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 16, 2024

Global

·       The Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha (one of the two main holidays celebrated in Islam) is celebrated through June 20.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing Significant to Report

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation (May), Wholesale Rate (May), Wholesale Prices (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       South Africa’s new Parliament will convene as coalition negotiations continue to form a new government.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

June 10 - 14, 2024

This coming week will be another busy week for the financial regulatory world in Washington.  Congress is working its way through the 2025 appropriations process, and that means we will see SEC Chair Gary Gensler and CFTC Chair Rostin Benham testifying in defense of their budgetary requests before the Senate Appropriations Committee.  All this is important, but our view is there is little chance Congress will get all the funding bills done before the November election and or the end of the year, punting it to the new Congress in January. 

But the big event this week will be in the House Financial Services Committee.  Committee Chair Patrick McHenry (R-NC) has called for a hearing to examine the recent independent investigatory report on the FDIC's out-of-control culture under FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg.  While Gruenberg has said he will resign as soon as the Senate confirms a replacement, he also knows there is virtually no chance of that happening by the end of this year.  Now, incredibly, he is refusing to show up to testify before the Financial Services Committee.  In his place, two FDIC Directors, Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu and FDIC Director Jonathan McKernan, along with the two external lawyers who conducted the investigation, will testify.

This is an extraordinary event in many ways.  Many observers we have spoken to cannot remember seeing any agency or department head who has been shown to both tolerate such a poisonous culture and was also explicitly engaged in it defy calls to step down immediately and now refuse to answer questions from the congressional committee with direct oversight of his agency.  In a word, Gruenberg seems to have gone rogue.  Expect a lot of fireworks this week and massive new pressure for him to step down immediately. 

Both the Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee will host the annual "Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Semi-Annual Report to Congress" Events.  CFPB Director Rohit Chopra, who is also an FDIC Director, will be the key witness at both hearings.  Given the context, he will likely face numerous questions about Gruenberg's situation.

Below is a complete listing of what is happening at the financial regulatory agencies this week and in Congress.  Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

• Wednesday, June 12, 9:45 a.m. - The Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee holds a hearing on "The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's Semi-Annual Report to Congress."  CFPB Director Rohit Chopra will testify.

• Wednesday. June 12, 10:00 a.m. - The Senate Finance Committee holds a hearing on "Youth Residential Treatment Facilities: Examining Failures and Evaluating Solutions."

• Wednesday, June 12, 10:00 a.m.: The Senate Budget Committee will hold a hearing on "Making Wall Street Pay Its Fair Share: Raising Revenue, Strengthening Our Economy."

• Thursday, June 13, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Financial Services and General Government will hold a hearing “A Review of the President’s Fiscal Year 2025 Budget Requests for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.”  SEC Chair Gary Gensler and CFTC Chair Rostin Benham will testify.

House of Representatives

• Wednesday, June 12, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing on "Oversight of the FDIC's Failed Leadership and Toxic Workplace Culture."  Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu, FDIC Director Jonathan McKernan, and two partners from Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton, the law firm that conducted the inquiry into the agency’s workplace troubles, are scheduled to testify.  FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg is refusing to testify.

• Thursday, June 13, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing “The Semi-Annual Report of the Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection.”  CFPB Director Rohit Chopra will testify.

• Thursday, June 13, 10:00 a.m. – The House Budget Committee will hold a hearing on “Medicare and Social Security: Examining Solvency and Impact to the Federal Budget.” Paul Spitalnick, Chief Actuary for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, and Stephen Goss, Chief Actuary for the Social Security Administration, will testify.

Joint Committees

• Wednesday, June 12, 3:00 p.m.: The Joint Economic Committee will hold a hearing on "Made in America: The Boom in U.S. Manufacturing Investment."

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

• Tuesday & Wednesday, June 11-12 – The Federal Open Market Committee holds a closed meeting to discuss the economy and interest rates.  There will be a press conference held by Fed Chair Jay Powell on June 12 at 2:30 p.m.

U.S. Treasury Department

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

• Thursday, June 13, 1:00 p.m. - The Housing and Urban Development Department will hold a virtual meeting of the Housing Counseling Federal Advisory Committee for presentations and discussion among HCFAC members.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• Thursday, June 13, 10:00 a.m. – SEC Chair Gary Gensler will testify before The Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Financial Services and General Government will hold a hearing “A Review of the President’s Fiscal Year 2025 Budget Requests for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.” 

• Thursday, June 13, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• Thursday, June 13, 10:00 a.m. – CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam will testify before The Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Financial Services and General Government will hold a hearing “A Review of the President’s Fiscal Year 2025 Budget Requests for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.”

FINRA

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• Thursday, June 12, 10:00 a.m. – FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg has been called to testify (and is refusing to attend) the House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing entitled "Oversight of the FDIC's Failed Leadership and Toxic Workplace Culture."  Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu, FDIC Director Jonathan McKernan and two partners from Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton, the law firm that conducted the inquiry into the agency’s workplace troubles, are scheduled to testify. 

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• Wednesday, June 12, 10:00 a.m. – Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu will testify before the House Financial Services Committee at a hearing entitled "Oversight of the FDIC's Failed Leadership and Toxic Workplace Culture."   Also testifying will be FDIC Director Jonathan McKernan and two partners from Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton, the law firm that conducted the inquiry into the agency’s workplace troubles, are scheduled to testify.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

• Thursday, June 13, 10:00 a.m. – The Farm Credit Administration holds a meeting for a quarterly report on economic conditions and farm credit system condition and performance and a semiannual report on Office of Examination operations.

The Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council

• Wednesday, June 12, 10:00 a.m. – The Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council holds a virtual meeting of the Appraisal Subcommittee for FY2024 ASC budget reprogramming request and FY2024 notice of funding availability for the Appraisal Foundation.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

• Monday, June 10, 2:00 p.m. – The World Bank and The Atlantic Council hold a discussion on "From competition to competitiveness: Unlocking growth and productivity in Latin America and the Caribbean."  Participants include World Bank Chief Economist for Latin America and the Caribbean William Maloney, World Bank Deputy Chief Economist for Latin America and the Caribbean Marcela Melendez,  Andrea Budelmann, Partner at Butelmann Consultores, Maria-Leticia Ossa Daza, Partner at Paul Weiss, Juan Carlos Lopez , Chief correspondent at CNN en Espanol, and Santiago Levy , Former deputy minister of the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit of Mexico and Brookings Institution nonresident senior fellow will speak.

North American Securities Administrators Association

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

• Tuesday & Wednesday, June 11 -12 – SIFMA holds its Diversity and Inclusion Leadership Summit in New York.

• Tuesday – Friday, June 11 – 14 – The American Bankers Association holds its Risk and Compliance Conference in Seattle, Washington.

• Tuesday, June 11, 10:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance holds an online event, “Peru’s Economic and Policy Outlook.”  The event will be conducted in Spanish.

Think Tanks and Other Events

• ·Tuesday, June 11, 9:30 a.m. – The Bipartisan Policy Center's Center for Housing Policy holds its 2024 Summit on Housing Supply Solutions.

• Tuesday, June 11, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a virtual discussion on "China's Experience of Promoting Venture Capital Investment."

• Friday, June 14, 9:30 a.m. – The Brookings Institution holds a conference on "The Federal Reserve's Review of Its Monetary Policy Framework." Former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke, senior economic studies fellow at the Brookings Institution, delivers welcoming remarks for an afternoon session.  Also, Former Federal Reserve Vice Chair Donald Kohn, chair in international economics and senior economic studies fellow at the Brookings Institution, participates in a panel discussion

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Maryland & Virginia Bankers Association Annual Convention

Amelia Island, Georgia

June 3, 2024 - Who doesn’t like going to Amelia Island? What a wonderful venue, only surpassed by the 500 bankers from Maryland and Virginia who are dedicated to the growth and security of their clients. The speakers were superb - and I was honored to follow Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan. You can access my presentation below.

Recommended Weekend Reads

June 7 - 9, 2024

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week.  With the EU elections now underway, we offer several resources to help understand how the elections work and what and who is trending.   We hope you find all these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list. 

EU 2024 Elections

• An American’s guide to the 2024 European election   Politico EU

  The EU elections have begun, choosing a new EU Parliament with more than 400 million Europeans eligible to vote.  But, as Politico EU points out, the EU is complicated, and so they break it down for “our cousins across the Atlantic.”
  

• European Elections 2024: All You Need to Know  European Elections 2024 (European Parliament Official Site)

  The EU Parliament offers this site to voters, giving them all the information, country by country, of who is running, which Parties are on the ballot, how the votes are tallied, and where they can find the election results.

• Europe’s center-left struggles to hold back surge from the right   BBC

  Only four EU member states have center-left or left-wing parties in government, and recent performances at the ballot box have been poor. The omens for the coming days are not good.  The EU’s center-left makes up the second-largest group in the outgoing European Parliament. Known as the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D), they are projected, at best, to cling on to their 139 seats in the 720-seat parliament. It is Europe's parties on the right that have the wind in their sails, and any success the center-left achieves is likely to be offset by losses elsewhere.

U.S. 2024 Elections

• An Unsettled Electorate: How Uncertainty and Apathy Are Shaping the 2024 Election American Enterprise Institute’s Survey Center on American Life

  With just under six months until the 2024 presidential election, a new survey of more than 6,500 adults finds considerable uncertainty among the American public, with few paying close attention to issues that may define the election. Americans are evenly divided between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. At this stage in the election cycle, neither candidate is particularly well-liked: Comparable numbers of Americans hold negative opinions of Trump or Biden as say they favor either candidate. Half of voters say things will get worse if either Biden or Trump wins reelection. Still, Americans tend to believe that the candidate options for the 2024 presidential election present an easy choice, though young voters, especially young women, are less certain.  Optimism about the state of the country is in short supply. Americans are primarily pessimistic about the national economic outlook, their local economic outlook, and the American Dream as a whole. More than six in 10 (61 percent) Americans say the national economy is worsening. Half (49 percent) say their local economy is getting worse. Most Americans, including large percentages of young Americans, say the American Dream is not easy for people like them to achieve.

• Cultural Issues and the 2024 Election   Pew Research Center

  The 2024 presidential campaign is taking place amid intense debates over topics such as immigration, growing racial and ethnic diversity in the United States, the changing American family, crime, and reproductive issues. These topics are sometimes grouped together as “culture war” or “woke” issues. On most—but not all—of these topics, voters who support President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have starkly different opinions. Yet, in many cases, Biden and Trump's supporters are themselves sharply divided.

Global Markets & Geoeconomics

• BRICS and De-Dollarization, How Far Can It Go?   Responsible Statecraft

  Although much U.S. media attention was paid to the enhancement of military and political cooperation during the summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing earlier this month, financial issues also figured high on the agenda.  The Russian delegation included Elvira Nabiullin, Governor of the Central Bank of Russia and she rarely travels with Putin abroad.  As the current chair of the BRICS, Putin is pursuing a rather extensive agenda related to finance that includes enhancing the role of member countries in the international monetary and financial system and developing interbank cooperation and settlements in national currencies – and part of that is the possibly created a BRICS currency.
  

• Risky Oil: It’s All in the Tails   Christiane Baumeister, Florian Huber & Massimiliano Marcelino/National Bureau of Economic Research

  The substantial fluctuations in oil prices in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have highlighted the importance of tail events in the global market for crude oil which call for careful risk assessment. In this paper we focus on forecasting tail risks in the oil market by setting up a general empirical framework that allows for flexible predictive distributions of oil prices that can depart from normality. This model, based on Bayesian additive regression trees, remains agnostic on the functional form of the conditional mean relations and assumes that the shocks are driven by a stochastic volatility model. We show that our nonparametric approach improves in terms of tail forecasts upon three competing models: quantile regressions commonly used for studying tail events, the Bayesian VAR with stochastic volatility, and the simple random walk. We illustrate the practical relevance of our new approach by tracking the evolution of predictive densities during three recent economic and geopolitical crisis episodes, by developing consumer and producer distress indices that signal the build-up of upside and downside price risk, and by conducting a risk scenario analysis for 2024.
  

• The Simple Macroeconomics of AI   Daron Acemoglu/National Bureau of Economic Research

  This paper evaluates claims about large macroeconomic implications of new advances in AI. It starts from a task-based model of AI’s effects, working through automation and task complementarities. So long as AI’s microeconomic effects are driven by cost savings/productivity improvements at the task level, its macroeconomic consequences will be given by a version of Hulten’s theorem: GDP and aggregate productivity gains can be estimated by what fraction of tasks are impacted and average task-level cost savings. Using existing estimates on exposure to AI and productivity improvements at the task level, these macroeconomic effects appear nontrivial but modest—no more than a 0.66% increase in total factor productivity (TFP) over 10 years. The paper then argues that even these estimates could be exaggerated because early evidence is from easy-to-learn tasks, whereas some of the future effects will come from hard-to-learn tasks, where there are many context-dependent factors affecting decision-making and no objective outcome measures from which to learn successful performance.

China

• How China Could Quarantine Taiwan  Center for Strategic & International Studies

  In this interactive report, CSIS China has significantly increased pressure on Taiwan in recent years. Its military ships and aircraft now operate around Taiwan on a near-daily basis, stoking fears that tensions could erupt into outright conflict.  Much of the world’s attention has focused on the threat of a Chinese invasion, but Beijing has many options besides an invasion to coerce, punish, or annex Taiwan. One major step China could take is a “gray zone” quarantine led not by the military but by the coast guard and other law enforcement forces.  Rather than sealing off the island, a quarantine would aim to demonstrate China’s ability to exert control over Taiwan.
  

• How is China’s Economic Transition Affecting Its Relations with Africa?    Carnegie Africa Program/Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  Amid increasing tensions with the United States and domestic pressures, China has been more motivated to reorient its economic and diplomatic relations with the Global South. China’s economic transition is already affecting its relations with Africa in several domains, including trade, investments, and people-to-people ties.  The authors of this study provide insights into the implications of China’s economic transition for Africa, as well as the roles for third parties like the United States to shape how these changes unfold.

Russia/Ukraine

• Russia’s Soaring Wartime Salaries Are Bolstering Working-Class Support for Putin   Carnegie Politika

  Many formerly badly paid Russian blue-collar workers have seen their salaries skyrocket since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, far outpacing inflation.  he reasons for rising incomes in Russia have been well documented: a labor shortage, hefty payments to soldiers and their families, and an unprecedented level of state spending that has obliged defense sector factories to work around the clock. However, whether standards of living have actually improved is open to debate, given the record military spending, high inflation, Western sanctions, and limits on hydrocarbon exports.  The second trend is the booming gambling market. The income of legal bookmakers rose 40 percent in 2023, and active gamblers (those who bet at least once a week) numbered some 6.6 million people. In total, more than 15 million people gambled (about one in seven Russians over the age of 18) over the course of the year. At the same time, inflation means the size of the average bet is growing. Current trends have even led to calls to raise the legal limit on a single bet from 600,000 rubles to 1.4 million rubles.

• One year after the Kakhovka dam disaster, a Ukrainian photographer captures the exposed riverbed and ruined villages left behind  Meduza.com

  The destruction of the dam at Ukraine’s Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant on the morning of June 6, 2023, caused the flooding of about 80 towns and villages in the country’s Kherson and Mykolaiv regions. Kyiv and Moscow blamed each other for the collapse and the resulting humanitarian and environmental disaster (though the dam has been controlled by Russian forces since the start of the full-scale invasion). In addition to inundating communities downstream from the facility, the dam’s breach caused catastrophic shallowing further upstream, devastating communities in the Zaporizhzhia region that used to rely on fishing and river transport for their livelihoods. For Meduza, Ukrainian photographer Pavel Korchagin traveled to the region to capture the way its landscape has changed in the year since the dam burst.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

June 3 - 7, 2024

It was 90 years ago this week that President Franklin Roosevelt established the Securities and Exchange Commission.  The SEC will celebrate the historic event on Wednesday with a gathering of former SEC Chairs in Washington.

We will also be watching this week as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu take part, on behalf of the Financial Stability Oversight Council FSOC) in a Brookings Institution conference entitled "Artificial Intelligence & Financial Stability.”   The development of AI is of growing concern to financial regulators on a number of fronts and this conference and the high-level engagement of the Treasury Secretary and Head of the OCC are good examples of how high-level that concern has gotten recently.

Looking back on the last week, the US Supreme Court handed down an important (and unanimous) decision that rejected a broad approach to exempting national banks from state regulations.  The decision requires courts to take a “nuanced” approach to federal laws when coming in conflict with state laws. 

Also last week, House Financial Services Committee Chair Patrick McHenry (R-NC) announced he will hold a hearing on the scandals at the FDIC.  He intends to call FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg up to testify before the full committee where he will face renewed calls to step down immediately (Gruenberg has steadfastly said he is staying until a replacement is nominated and confirmed by the US Senate, which will likely take not happen until early 2025).

Below is a full listing of what is happening at the financial regulatory agencies this week and in Congress.  Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

·       Wednesday, June 5, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Budget Committee holds a hearing on "Riskier Business: How Climate is Already Challenging Insurance Markets."

House of Representatives

·       Tuesday, June 4, 11:00 a.m. – The House Ways and Means Social Security Subcommittee holds a hearing on "The Social Security Trust Funds in 2024 and Beyond."

·       Wednesday, June 5, 9:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Digital Assets, Financial Technology and Inclusion Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Next Generation Infrastructure: How Tokenization of Real-World Assets Will Facilitate Efficient Markets."

Joint Committees

·       Tuesday, June 4, 2:30 p.m. – The Joint Economic Committee holds a hearing on "Artificial Intelligence and Its Potential to Fuel Economic Growth and Improve Governance."

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

·       Thursday, June 6, 12:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook at the Girls Global Academy 2024 Commencement Ceremony, University of the District of Columbia, Washington, D.C.

U.S. Treasury Department

·       Tuesday, June 4, 1:00 p.m. – The Treasury Department holds a virtual meeting of the Federal Advisory Committee on Insurance to discuss climate-related financial risk and the insurance sector, discuss cyber insurance developments and international insurance issues and receive status updates from each of its subcommittees and from the Federal Insurance Office on its activities.

·       Thursday, June 6 & 7 – The Financial Stability Oversight Council  (FSOC) and the Brookings Institution hold a conference on "Artificial Intelligence & Financial Stability.”  Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu will give keynote speeches.

Securities and Exchange Commission

·       Tuesday, June 5, 11:10 a.m. – SEC Chair Gary Gensler will speak at the ISDA/SIFMA Treasury Forum in New York.

·       Wednesday, June 6, 10:00 a.m. – The SEC holds a virtual meeting of the SEC Investor Advisory Committee for a panel discussion examining the new frontier for investment advice, a panel discussion regarding AI regulation: embracing the future, a discussion of a recommendation regarding the protection of self-directed investors when trading complex products and utilizing complex strategies, a discussion of a recommendation on financial literacy and investor education and subcommittee and working group reports.

·       Wednesday, June 6, 1:00 p.m. – The SEC hosts the 90th Anniversary of the Securities Exchange Act at the SEC.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

·       Tuesday, June 4, 10:00 a.m. – The Commodity Futures Trading Commission holds a meeting of the Global Markets Advisory Committee to hear a presentation from the GMAC's Global Market Structure Subcommittee, Technical Issues Subcommittee, and Digital Asset Markets Subcommittee on various workstreams, and consider recommendations from the Subcommittees on such workstreams.

·       Wednesday, June 5, 12:30 p.m. – CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam to keynote at the Piper Sandler Global Exchange & Trading Conference 2024 in New York.

FINRA

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

·       Tuesday, June 4, 9:00 a.m. – The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation holds a meeting of the FDIC Advisory Committee on Economic Inclusion for updates from committee members about key challenges facing their communities or organizations and panel discussions on the current environment for economic inclusion, including industry and market trends that affect consumer participation in the banking system.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

·       Wednesday, June 6, 9:40 a.m. Chicago Time – Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu will discuss “The OCC’s Financial Health: Vital Signs Initiative” at the EMERGE Financial Health 2024 Conference in Chicago, Illinois.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

·       Tuesday, June 4, 11:20 a.m. – FTC Chair Lina Kahn will participate in a fireside chat at the 2024 CNBC CEO Summit in Washington, D.C.

·       Friday, June 7, 10:30 a.m. – FTC Chair Lina Kahn delivers opening comments at the American Constitution Society Annual Conference in Atlanta, Georgia.

Farm Credit Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

·       Tuesday, June 4 – The American Academy of Actuaries holds a symposium on "Looking Back, Moving Forward: The Employee Retirement Income Security Act at 50’ in Washington, D.C.

·       Tuesday, June 4, 8:00 a.m. – The U.S. Chamber of Commerce holds its 2024 Sustainability and Circular Economy Summit in Washington, D.C.

·       Tuesday, June 4, 1:30 p.m. – The Institute of International Bankers holds their 2024 Foreign Bank Governance Seminar in New York.

Think Tanks and Other Events

Thursday, June 6 & 7  – The Urban Institute holds a summit on "Advancing Housing Justice.”

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.