Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis, as well as book recommendations, travel observations, and cultural experiences - all of which we hope will be of interest to you.

Francis Kelly 6/2/24 Francis Kelly 6/2/24

The Global Week Ahead

June 2 - 9, 2024

This is the week of big election results, which will have a big impact on markets. Mexico, India, and the European Parliament all have elections this week. The outcome in two of them—Mexico and India—is pretty much assured for the ruling parties, but the margin of victory is critically important to the market outlook for both countries.

In Mexico, former Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum is ahead in all polls. But her opponent, Xóchitl Gálvez, has run a smart campaign and put reforms and economic development on the nation, putting serious pressure on Sheinbaum and the Moreno Party coalition. Interestingly, Sheinbaum is seen as possibly being more left-wing than current President Andres Manual Lopez Obrador (AMLO), but voter pressure may keep her leftist tilt in check.

In India, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appear to be on the cusp of an enormous victory, picking up even more seats in parliament than before and potentially paving the way for Modi to push through sweeping reforms highly attractive to investors.

Finally, in Europe, voters across the European Union will vote for members of the European Parliament. Polls suggest the result could be a significant right-wing tilt of the EU Parliament. It will also decide who the next EC President will be (likely re-election of current President Ursula von der Leyden) and the entire European Commission.

We would note two important and somber anniversaries this week, one ensuring freedom and the other crushing it: The first being the 80th Anniversary of D-Day on June 6 and the second 35th Anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre in Beijing.

Looking at the economic radar screen this week, markets will be watching the European Central Bank's decision on interest rates on Thursday. Elsewhere in Europe, Germany releases industrial production figures, factory orders, and the latest trade balance numbers.

In the US, the jobs report coming out Friday is being closely watched by market participates in advance of the Federal Reserve Board meeting in two weeks. Canada’s Reserve Bank meets on interest rates.

Turning to Asia, China releases the Caixin PMIs and the May trade balance. In Japan, the Ministry of Finance’s Q1 Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations and the Monthly Labor Survey for April are released.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, June 2, 2024

Global

· OPEC+ ministers meet via videoconference to assess oil output.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Mexico holds presidential, senatorial, and chamber of deputy elections. Claudia Sheinbaum (ruling party MORENA) is expected to win against her opponent, Xochitl Galvez (opposition party PAN). You can track the election results HERE.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Serbia reruns Belgrade’s elections which were held in December. The rerun comes as a result of complaints of widespread voter fraud.

· Italy celebrates Republic Day today, marking the day in 1946 when the country voted to become a republic following the end of World War II.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The International Air Transport Association holds its annual meeting in Dubai through June 4.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 3, 2024

Global

· The Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will meet in Vienna to discuss Iran’s nuclear development and the situation in Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Biden’s son, Hunter, goes on trial for illegal firearms possession.

· Brazil will host the International Conference on Renewable Energy Technologies in Teresina.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mexico Business Confidence (May)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (April)

· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Balance of Trade (May)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (May)

· Uruguay Unemployment Rate (April)

· Argentina Tax Revenue (May)

· Peru Inflation Rate (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (May)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM (May)

· Japan Capital Spending YoY (Q1)/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (May)

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Tourist Arrivals (April)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May)

· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (May)

· Kazakhstan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Thailand Business Confidence (May)

· Pakistan Balance of Trade (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Wholesale Prices (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The UN’s Bonn Climate Change Conference begins in Bonn, Germany. The meeting is in advance of the COP28 meetings.

· The Oslo Freedom Forum takes place in Oslo, Norway. The posthumous Award of the Oslo Freedom Forum Human Rights Prize will be given to Alexei Navalny.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· France Budget Balance (April)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (May)

· Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Spain Tourist Arrivals (April)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Turkey Inflation Rate (May)/ Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (May)/ PPI (May)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Prel (May)

· Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (May)

· Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (May)

· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI May

· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (May)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)

· Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The White House is set to send a delegation of National Security Council staff to Egypt to hold a trilateral meeting between U.S., Egyptian and Israeli officials in Cairo next week to discuss the reopening of the Rafah crossing and a plan for securing the border between Egypt and Gaza Nothing significant to report.

· Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan will meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing. They are expected to discuss enhanced trade opportunities as well as the situation in Gaza and in Ukraine. Another key point they will discuss is harmonizing China’s Belt and Road Initiative with the Trans-Caspian East-West Middle Corridor Initiative. These discussions come as developments in Ukraine, Gaza, and the Red Sea impact global supply line security and some transportation projects. Fidan will also meet with Chinese Vice President Han Zheng.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Uganda observes Martyrs Day, commemorating when 45 Christians chose execution over renouncing their faith in 1887.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (May)

Tuesday, June 4, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin meets with his counterparts in Cambodia. In recent years, Cambodia has grown closer to China. China has been sending migrant workers to Cambodia, reaching almost 300,000 workers. Penh.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM (May)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1)

· Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (March)

· USA Redbook (June/01)/ JOLTs Job Openings & Quits (April)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/31)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (May)/ Total Vehicle Sales (May)

· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI/ Exports (April)

· Paraguay Inflation Rate (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· India’s national election process concludes. The seven-phase general election began on April 19 with voting being held for 543 seats in the Lok Sbah (the lower house of Parliament). An estimated 970 million people were eligible to vote. More than one million polling stations were set up and 15 million employees of federal and state governments conducted the polls. Poll officials went to great lengths to ensure everyone who could vote did vote. Officials used helicopters, boats, mules, and even elephants to reach remote areas. A party needs to win a majority of 272 seats to form a government. The ruling Baharatiya Janata Party (BJP) went into the election with 282 seats and is looking to expand that number. You can track the election results HERE.

· South Africa hosts the Korea-Africa Summit and the Korea-Africa Business Sumit (on June 5) in Seoul. African leaders will gather to discuss with South Korean leaders how to improve trade and economic relations.

· Pakistan Foreign Minister Shehbaz Sharif meets with Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Beijing. The meeting is expected to focus on expanding the multi-billion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which is critical to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, giving China access to Pakistan’s ports.

· Today is the 35th anniversary of the crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrators in Tiananmen Square.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Inflation Rate (May)

· India General Elections Results

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Australia Company Gross Profits QoQ (Q1)/ Business Inventories QoQ (Q1)/ Current Account (Q1)/ Net Exports Contribution to GDP (Q1)/ Retail Sales MoM Final (April)

· New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (June/04)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Labor Party Leader Sir Keir Starmer will debate on ITV in their first election debate.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo participates in a seminar entitled "Big Techs in Finance: The European Union Must React!" organized by the Association Europe-Finances-Régulations (AEFR) in Paris.

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives a speech at "Die Woche der Umwelt 2024, zusammen für Klimaneutralität" organized by the Deutsche Bundesstiftung Umwelt (DBU) in Berlin.

· Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (May)

· Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Romania PPI (April)

· Hungary GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)

· Switzerland Inflation Rate (May)

· Slovakia Real Wages YoY (Q1)

· Spain Unemployment Change (May)

· Germany Unemployment Rate (May)

· Slovenia Balance of Trade (April)

· Euro Area Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (May)

· Qatar Financial Centre PMI (May)/ Balance of Trade (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· African leaders will gather in Seoul for the 2024 Korea-Africa

· Zambia’s bondholders will hold a final vote on Tuesday on a $3 billion restructuring deal aimed at creating fiscal space for the southern African nation that defaulted in 2020.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt S&P Global PMI (May)

· South Africa GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1)

Wednesday, June 5, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo will travel to Singapore to participate in the Indo-Pacific Framework Clean Energy Investor Forum, which runs through June 6. She will then participate in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework Ministerial meetings.

· The Inaugural Joint Angolan American Defense Cooperation Agreement begins in Washington and runs through June 6.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/31)/ ADP Employment Change (May)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (May)/ ISM Services PMI (May)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (May/31)

· Brazil Industrial Production (April)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (May)

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (May)

· Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision/Press Conference

· Canada Labor Productivity QoQ (Q1)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (May)/

· Uruguay Inflation Rate (May)

· Argentina Industrial Production (April)

· Colombia PPI (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)

· New Zealand Export Prices QoQ (Q1)/ Import Prices QoQ (Q1)/ Terms of Trade QoQ (Q1)

· Australia Ai Group Industry Index (May)/ Judo Bank Services & Composite PMI Final (May)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1)

· Japan Average Cash Earnings (April)/ Overtime Pay (April)/ Jibun Bank Services & Composite PMI Final (May)

· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (May)

· Singapore S&P Global PMI (May)/ Retail Sales (April)/ SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Philippines Inflation Rate (May)

· China Caixin Services & Composite PMI (May)

· Thailand Inflation Rate (May)

· India HSBC Services & Composite PMI Final (May)

· Kazakhstan S&P Global Services PMI (May)

· Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The St. Petersburg International Economic Forum begins and runs through June 8. Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to speak.

· Denmark celebrates Constitution Day, commemorating the day in 1849 when the first Constitution was signed. Workers get the second half of the day off and shops close to celebrate.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Kerstin af Jochnick participates in a fireside chat at the 28th Goldman Sachs European Financial Conference in Madrid.

· ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates on a panel discussion at the 23rd annual IMF-FED-WB.

· Russia S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (May)/ PPI (May)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ Business Confidence (May)/ Real Wage Growth (March)/ Retail Sales (April)/ GDP (April)

· Hungary Balance of Trade Prel (April)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· France Industrial Production MoM (April)/ HCOB Services & Composite PMI (May)

· Spain HCOB Services Composite PMI (May)

· Italy HCOB Services & Composite PMI (May)

· Germany HCOB Services & Composite PMI (May)

· Euro Area HCOB Services & Composite PMI (May)/ PPI (April)/ European Parliament Election

· Great Britain S&P Global Services & Composite PMI Final

· Poland Interest Rate Decision (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (May)

· Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (May)

· Israel Tourist Arrivals (May)

· Jordan PPI (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (May)

· South Africa S&P Global PMI (May)

· Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (May)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Ghana S&P Global PMI (May)

Thursday, June 6, 2024

Global

· The UN General Assembly is expected to elect five non-permanent members to the UN Security Council. The likely new members are Denmark, Greece, Pakistan, Panama, and Somalia, and they will serve for two-year terms.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Biden will travel to France to participate in the D-Day commemoration ceremonies.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook at the Girls Global Academy 2024 Commencement Ceremony, University of the District of Columbia, Washington, D.C.

· USA Challenger Job Cuts (May)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Initial Jobless Claims (June/01)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (May/31)

· Mexico Auto Production (May)

· Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Ivey PMI s.a (May)

· Brazil Car Production MoM (May)

· Ecuador Inflation Rate (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Toyoaki Nakamura meets with local leaders and gives and speech in Sapporo, Japan.

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (June/01)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (June/01)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Philippines Unemployment Rate (April)

· Australia Balance of Trade (April)/ Investment Lending for Homes (April)

· Taiwan Inflation Rate (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Union Parliamentary elections take place through June 9. The election is expected to result in a strong right-wing surge of members. Once the new parliament is seated in September, they will choose and approve new European Commissioners and also nominate the President of the European Commission (currently, Ursula von der Leyden, who is running for re-election). You can follow the results HERE.

· French President Emmanuel Macron will host world leaders in Normandy to commemorate the anniversary of D-Day. Macron has angered allies by inviting a representative of the Russian government to attend. Ukrainian President Zelensky is expected to attend, as well.

· Nothing significant to report.

· Today is Sweden National Day. Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank meets to discuss monetary policy. There will be a press conference afterward.

· Ireland AIB Services PMI (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (May)

· Romania Retail Sales (April)

· Hungary Retail Sales (April)

· Slovakia GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)/ Retail Sales (April)

· Spain Industrial Production (April)

· Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (May)/ Retail Sales (April)/Marginal Lending Rate

· France HCOB Construction PMI (May)

· Germany HCOB Construction PMI (May)

· Italy HCOB Construction PMI (May)/ Retail Sales (April)

· Great Britain S&P Global Construction PMI (May)

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/31)

· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Business Confidence (May)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Current Account (Q1)

· Nigeria Balance of Trade (February)/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Balance of Trade (January)

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Friday, June 7, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

· Mexico Inflation Rate (May)

· Canada Unemployment Rate (May)/ Participation Rate (May)/ Capacity Utilization (Q1)

· USA Unemployment Rate (May)/ Participation Rate (May)/ Average Weekly Hours (May)/ Wholesale Inventories MoM (April)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (June/07)/ Consumer Credit Change (April)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan’s Self-Defense Force (SDF) will participate in the US military’s “Valiant Shield” military exercises through June 18. The exercises normally take place around Guam, the Northern Marianas Islands, and Palau.

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Manufacturing Sales YoY (Q1)

· Japan Household Spending (April)/ Coincident Index Prel (April)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (April)

· Philippines Industrial Production (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (May)

· China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (May)

· India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/31)

· Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NATO’s Baltic Operations 2024 exercises begin in Lithuania.

· Today is Sette Giurno in Malta, a national holiday. It celebrates nothing in particular – it’s just a day off for everyone.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in Atelier Maurice Allais 2024 organized by Fondation Maurice Allais in Paris.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates on a panel discussion at the Federal Ministry of Finance in Berlin.

· Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Industrial Production MoM (April)

· Romania GDP Growth Rate YoY 2nd Est (cQ1)

· Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (May)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (May)

· Hungary Industrial Production YoY Prel (April)/ Budget Balance (May)

· France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Current Account (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (April)

· Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Euro Area Employment Change YoY Final (Q1)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY 3rd Est (Q1)/ European Parliament Election

· Greece Balance of Trade (April)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1)

· Ireland Current Account (Q1)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)/ GNP YoY (Q1)/ Industrial Production (April)

· Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)/ Business Confidence (Q2)

Saturday, June 8, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· French President Emmanuel Macron will host President Biden for an official state visit to France. They are expected to discuss the situation in Ukraine and Macron may use the occasion to announce France is sending military trainers to Ukraine.

· Ireland holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Euro Area European Parliament Election

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a deadline set by National Unity leader and war cabinet member Bennie Gantz to submit a six-point plan for post-war Gaza. Gantz has said that if Netanyahu fails to do this, Gantz’s centrist party will withdraw from the governing coalition and likely trigger a new election. According to recent polls, close to 70 percent of Israeli voters want Netanyahu to step down and new elections to be held soon.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 9, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Vehicle Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Bulgaria holds parliamentary elections.

· Belgium holds parliamentary and regional elections.

· Germany holds municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is National Heroes Day in Uganda, honoring the estimated 500,000 people who died in the Uganda Bush War that took place between 1981 and 1986.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 5/31/24 Francis Kelly 5/31/24

Our Recommended Summer Reading List (Part I)

Memorial Day is here, and that means summer is upon us. I" 'm a big fan of recommended book lists - I collect them! - and, for the first time in my life, I took a stab compiling a list of ten books I've read this year that I really liked. Hopefully, you will find them as entertaining and enlightening as I did when lounging on the beach. I hope to have a second list of recommended books later this summer, too.

The Chile Project: The Story of the Chicago Boys and the Downfall of Neoliberalism by Sebastian Edwards (Princeton Press, 2024, 376 pages)

In 1955, the U.S. State Department launched the "Chile Project" - an effort to train and assist Chilean economists at the University of Chicago to help embed free market policies in the country. A steady flow of Chile's best and brightest matriculated through the University's graduate program, studying under some of the most brilliant economists in the World, including Milton Friedman. By the time General Augusto Pinochet overthrew the Neo-Marxist regime of President Salvador Allende in 1973, this cadre of free market economists was in a position to move sweeping reforms of privatization and deregulation. This is a fascinating history of what happened, the impact it had not only on Chile but the whole region, and how Chileans ultimately rebelled in 2019 against neoliberalism and elected Gabriel Boric president, a socialist dedicated to ending "neoliberalism." We would note, however, that Boric has struggled badly to implement his promised changes, including two failed efforts to rewrite the constitution.

US - Taiwan Relations: Will China’s Challenge Lead to Crisis? By Ryan Hass, Bonnie Glaser, and Richard Bush (Brookings Institution Press, 2023, 184 pages)

Over the last two years, markets have been concerned about a possible invasion of Taiwan, how the U.S. would respond, and what it would mean for the global economy. However, in our conversations with numerous market participants, many do not understand the dynamics of the US-Taiwan relationship, the history of China-Taiwan relations, and other important dynamics. Hass, Glaser, and Bush have published an excellent and much-needed examination of all these critical questions. To understand what is happening and what might happen, you must read this well-written and indispensable book.

We Win, They Lose: Republican Foreign Policy & the New Cold War by Matthew Koenig and Dan Negra (Republic Book Publishers, 2024, 220 pages)

Matthew Koenig's and Dan Negraea's book is getting wide circulation as something from a Republican foreign policy historical manifesto. The title comes from Ronald Reagan, who was asked in 1977 what the driving principle of his foreign policy was. His response: "My idea of American policy toward the Soviet Union is simple, and some would say simplistic. It is this: We win, and they lose." The authors, both admirers of Reagan and veterans of the Trump Administration, push back on the strain of isolationism currently running through the Republican Party. And it is having an effect as countless Republican operatives and strategists we've spoken to have recommended the book to me - and I'm glad they did, as it gave me an excellent inside view of where Republican foreign policy will likely go in the years to come.

Breaking the Mold: India’s Untraveled Path to Prosperity by Raghuram G. Rajan (and Rohit Samba ( Princeton University Press, 2024, 336 pages)

Former Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan and Penn State Professor Rohit Lamba write a fascinating and taunt guide to understanding what India has accomplished economically and what it still needs to do going forward. India's economy has overtaken the United Kingdom's to become the fifth-largest in the World. However, it is still only one-fifth the size of China, and India's economic growth needs to be faster to provide jobs for millions of its ambitious youth. Blocking India's current path is intense global competition in low-skilled manufacturing, increasing protectionism and automation, and the country's majoritarian streak in politics. Rajan and Lamba outline what needs to be done to overcome these challenges.

The Dillon Era: Douglas Dillon in the Eisenhower, Kennedy, and Johnson Administrations by Richard Aldous (McGill - Queens University Press, 2023, 296 pages)

Having grown up in Washington, I was taught by my grandfather (who was a mega-lobbyist who knew presidents and the most influential members of Congress while having a brother who was the FBI Deputy Director under J. Edgar Hoover) that history is more often quietly made by the extraordinary men and women serving the President than the President themselves. Douglas Dillon was one of those men - who is sadly fading away with the sands of history. The scion of a fabulously wealthy family that founded the then-Wall Street powerhouse investment bank Dillon Reed, he never forgot the real roots of his family - his grandfather had been a poor Polish Jew who emigrated to the U.S., settled in Texas, changed his name to "Dylion" which was his mother's name and from which it was anglicized to Dillon. This thin biography does a fantastic job recounting Douglas Dillon, who served as Treasury Secretary, savvy advisor to Presidents, Ambassador to France (back when that meant something and was not just an honorific), and Wall Street titan himself.

Unexpected Revolutionaries: How Central Banks Made and Unmade Economic Orthodoxy by Manuela Moschella (Cornell University Press, 2024, 188 pages)

I stumbled upon this slim little book in a bookstore, and once I started reading it, I could not put it down. A fascinating read looking at how central banks - specifically the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan - have massively transformed from the staid and predictable institutions of the last century due to the shocks of the 2008 global financial crisis and COVID.

In short, the playbooks central banks had worked from for decades had to be tossed, and new ways of dealing with economic shocks developed. The history the author covers is well-written and fascinating, but what was particularly engaging was how it has led to central banks stretching into areas far beyond monetary policy, such as climate change and inequality. The "neoliberal macroeconomic regime," as we have known it, is gone, and a new age of central banking is upon us in ways we are only just beginning to understand.

Ian Fleming: The Complete Man by Nicholas Shakespeare (Harper Publishing, 2024, 864 pages)

Since he first wrote "Casino Royale" in 1953, Ian Fleming's James Bond has tightly gripped the imaginations of readers and moviegoers worldwide. It also helped Great Britain, struggling to get back on its feet after World War II, when the Empire began crumbling and colonial states broke away. Indeed, Fleming's Bond recovered a sense of Britain's strength, swagger, and pride so powerfully that James Bond has become enshrined as an actual emblem of "Great" Britain itself (Recall in 2012, then-Bond actor Daniel Craig - playing Bond one last time - joined forces with Queen Elizabeth in Buckingham Palace to go forth together in a grand video production to officially open the 2012 Olympics in London). But who was Ian Fleming? In this superb biography, Nick Shakespeare shows that Fleming was almost as mysterious and adventuresome as his James Bond. He sought to "live a complete life," which led him to travel the World constantly, have an incredible career in British Naval Intelligence, participates in some of the most significant, most important moments of his time, and know everyone of power and wealth in the World. It was a fantastic life - one defined by his Bond novels, of which he only spent the final twelve years writing.

The Achilles Trap: Saddam Hussein, the United States, and the Middle East 1989 - 2003 by Steve Coll (Penguin Press, 2024, 556 pages)

We are now entering, rightly, the phase where historians and policymakers can begin to look back and examine the Iraq War. Why did we go in? Why was the intelligence so off? And, as Steve Coll does brilliantly in this new book, why did Saddam Hussein risk (and ultimately lose) everything by giving the false impression he had hidden stocks of weapons of mass destruction? Coll goes deep, looking at not just the U.S. side but the Iraqi side, the Iraqi generals, scientists, and other people of power who sat by and played into this tragic facade that ended up destroying Hussein's long reign of power, plunging the country into war, and forever changing the future of Iraq.

The Peacemaker: Ronald Reagan, The Cold War, and the World on the Brink by William Inboden (Dutton Press, 2022, 608 pages)

Having served in the Reagan White House, I love to read good, well-researched books on what was actually going on while I was there (I started there when I was 22 years old and left when I was 25). Inboden writes an excellent history of how Reagan and his team successfully ended the Cold War and helped expand democracy and free trade globally. But it was Reagan's determination and focus on defeating the Soviet Union - the Evil Empire - that made it all happen. This is a great read.

Countering China’s Great Game: A Strategy for American Dominance by Michael Sobolik (Naval Institute Press, 2024, 218 pages)

Chinese President Xi Jinping's "project of the century" - the Belt & Road Initiative - is one of the most significant geopolitical gambits in recent memory, leveraging China's investments for political, economic, and military purposes around the World. Reaching around the World - from Asia to Africa to Latin America - China firmly set its grand strategy. So far, the U.S. and other Western and Asian democracies have not put up a comprehensive counter-strategy. Sobolik explains the Belt and Road efforts and offers an intelligent blueprint for the United States to counter it by playing off the one core weakness China has exposed to their plan: imperial overreach.

Francis Kelly 5/26/24 Francis Kelly 5/26/24

The Global Week Ahead

May 26 - June 2, 2024

While it will be a quiet week in the US with the Memorial Day holiday and the official beginning of Summer, it will be a hectic week worldwide. Markets will be watching a number of major events this week, particularly the China-Japan-South Korea trilateral meeting in Seoul, South Korea. The leaders of the three nations are meeting together for the first time since 2019. Tensions between the three nations have increased in recent years as Japan and South Korea have grown closer to the US in a bid to better defend themselves against the growing Chinese presence in the region as well as North Korea’s enhanced missile capability and growing belligerence toward them. China is Japan and South Korea’s largest trading partner and while no breakthroughs are expected, is part of a new effort to reduce those tensions and maintain strong economic relations.

Markets will be watching as two significant elections are held this week and one massive election moves into its final stage. First, in Mexico, voters will choose a new president. Former Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, an ally of current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), is expected to win, making her Mexico’s first woman president. Markets are watching this election closely as Sheinbaum is expected to continue AMLO’s populist economic policies, which have often clashed with business interests in the country.

Second, South Africa holds presidential and parliamentary elections. President Cyril Ramaphosa is likely to be elected for a second term that will keep him in office until 2029. South Africa, a member of the BRICS, has grown closer to Russia and China in recent years and more hostile to the US and other Western countries. Recall it was the South African government who filed the case charging Israel with committing genocide against Palestinians in the International Court of Justice while claiming neutrality in the Ukrainian War while increasing trade and conducting joint naval drills last year with Russia and China.

India moves to the seventh and final stage of its six-week national elections. More than 970 million people were eligible to vote. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are expected to retain power and likely expand it in the country’s 543-seat parliament. But expectations for a sweeping BJP electoral super-majority win are now being tempered as polling suggests opposition parties may have done somewhat better than expected. The final results will be announced on June 4. The final stage comes one day after India announces GDP figures on Friday which are expected to be at least 8 percent for Q1.

There will be a flurry of activity in Europe this week, with significant meetings and visits. EU and NATO foreign ministers will be meeting to discuss the situation in Ukraine and Gaza, underscoring the importance of these geopolitical hotspots. Additionally, French President Emmanuel Macron will make a State Visit to Germany – the first state visit of a French President to Germany in 24 years. This extraordinary visit, which will also include a joint meeting of the French and German cabinets, aims to address a long list of issues and bring the two nations closer together. The strained relations between the two countries over energy, economics, and other issues in recent years make this visit particularly significant.

It will not be all quiet in the US this week. On Tuesday, closing arguments in the criminal trial of former President Trump begin in New York. The Ohio State Legislature has been called back into a special session to vote on a bill allowing President Biden to be added to the November ballot. Due to a glitch in Ohio law and the timing of the Democratic Presidential Convention in August, Biden is currently not on the ballot. The legislature failed to correct this before they went out of session last week, forcing Governor Mike DeWine to call them back.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, markets will be looking closely at important inflation data from the US (including the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), Europe, Japan, and China. In particular, Germany will release its May CPIs on Wednesday, while Italy, France, and the Eurozone will release CPIs on Friday. The Federal Reserve will release the latest Beige Book, and the European Central Bank will release the important consumer expectations survey.

Below are the rest of the significant political events and economic reports we are watching this coming week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

Sunday, May 26, 2024

Global

UN Secretary-General António Guterres will travel to Antigua and Barbuda to take part in the fourth International Conference on Small Island Developing States. He will first attend the High-Level Closing Session of the Small Island Developing State Business Network.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Former President Trump will address the Libertarian Party’s National Convention in Washington, D.C. Independent Candidate Robert Kennedy, Jr. addressed the Convention yesterday. Both candidates are seeking the support and endorsement of the Party, and it is the first time the Party has allowed non-party candidates to address and appeal to the party.
Today is Independence Day in Guyana, marking the day the country gained its independence from the UK in 1966.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

The leaders of China, South Korea, and Japan will meet in Seoul, South Korea, through May 27 for their first trilateral summit since 2019. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, Chinese Premier Li Qiang, and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will discuss mutual trade and security issues. It is the first time the trilateral has been held since 2019. Japan and South Korea both are both major trading partners with China but with the two nations growing closer to the US, tensions have increased.
Japan's Shizuoka prefecture will hold a gubernatorial election, which will serve as an indicator of the prospects of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party in the country's next general election.
Cambodia and China will conduct "Golden Dragon" military exercises through May 30.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Russian President Vladimir Putin begins a two-day visit to Uzbekistan.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will visit Spain.
French President Emmanuel Macron will travel to Germany for a three-day state visit through May 28. It is the first state visit by a French leader in 24 years. According to the German and French governments, "find points of convergence between France and Germany on subjects of the future like technology, innovation, artificial intelligence."
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda faces a runoff election in his bid for a second term against Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte, a rematch of the 2019 elections
President of the European Council Charles Michel may meet with the Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Palestinian Authority (TBC).
Georgia celebrates Independence Day today, marking the day it gained its freedom from Russia in 1991.

Economic Reports/Events –

European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a speech on "Climate change and monetary policy" at Festival dell'Economia di Trento 2024 in Trento, Italy.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Israel Manufacturing Production (March)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 27, 2024

Global

The World Health Organization (WHO) will hold its 77th World Health Assembly in Geneva, Switzerland. The organization is seeking a final agreement on a global pandemic treaty to deal with any future pandemic.
The UN’s fourth International Conference on Small Island Developing States is taking place in Antigua and Barbuda, organized by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) and the United Nations Office of the High Representative for the Least Developed Countries, Landlocked Developing Countries and Small Island Developing States (UN-OHRLLS).
UN Secretary-General António Guterres will address the opening ceremony of the Conference, where he will reiterate the UN’s support for the aspirations of Small Island Developing States (SIDS) – from halting and mitigating the impacts of the climate crisis to building resilient economies and fostering safe, healthy and prosperous societies. He will also call on the international community to support SIDS in the challenges they face and will underscore that SIDS is a test case for climate justice and financial justice.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

The US Congress is out of session this week in honor of the Memorial Day holiday. Banks and financial markets are closed.
Peru will host a meeting of senior finance officials for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Urubamba, Peru.

Economic Reports/Events –

Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester to participate in policy panel discussion on “The Effects of Conventional and Unconventional Policy Instruments" before the 2024 Bank of Japan - Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies Conference in Tokyo, Japan.
Brazil Bank Lending (April)/ BCB Focus Market Readout
Canada Wholesale Sales MoM Prel (April)/ CFIB Business Barometer
Mexico GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

China Industrial Profits (YTD) (April)
Taiwan Consumer Confidence (May)
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at the 2024 BOJ-IMES Conference Hosted by the Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, in Tokyo. Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida will also give a speech.
Japan Coincident Index Final (March)/ Leading Economic Index Final (March)
Indonesia M2 Money Supply (April)
Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (May)
Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

As announced last week, Norway, Ireland, and Spain formally recognize a State of Palestine.
Cabinets of France and Germany for joint talks chaired by Olaf Scholz and Emmanuel Macron in Berlin, Germany.
The EU Foreign Affairs Council will meet in Brussels through May 28. The Foreign Affairs Ministers are expected to discuss the Russian aggression against Ukraine after an informal exchange of views with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba, who is foreseen to join the beginning of the meeting via videoconference to provide updates on the latest developments on the ground and Ukraine’s current priorities. They will also discuss the situation in Georgia in the wake of the passing of the highly controversial “foreign agent” law as well as the situation in Venezuela and Venezuelan President Maduro’s ongoing interference in free and fair elections. They will also discuss the situation in Gaza.
Georgia parliament set to adopt the highly controversial 'foreign influence' bill.
IAEA chief Rafael Grossi is expected to visit Moscow for talks on Zaporizhzhia, the nuclear power plant in Ukraine that has been under attack by Russian forces.
The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels. They are expected to discuss current crisis situation in the agricultural sector. The Council will follow up on the responses that have already been provided and those that are currently envisaged, while also focusing on the future of crisis management.
The Supporting the Future of Syria and the Region – Brussels Eight Conference will be held in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

In the UK, it is the Spring Bank holiday. Financial Markets are closed.
European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a keynote speech on "Inflation in the Eurozone" at the Institute of International and European Affairs (IIEA) in Dublin, Ireland.
Turkey Business Confidence (May)/ Capacity Utilization (May)
Germany Ifo Business Climate (May)/ Ifo Current Conditions (May)/ Ifo Expectations (May)
Poland Unemployment Rate (April)
Slovenia Business Confidence (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Israel Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

The African Development Bank holds its annual meeting in Nairobi, Kenya.

Economic Reports/Events –

Ghana Interest Rate Decision
Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (May)
Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (May)

Tuesday, May 28, 2024

Global

UN Secretary General António Gutteres Secretary-General will take part in the High-Level Meeting on Resource Mobilization for Small Island Developing States in Antigua.
The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on the maintenance of international peace and security: The role of women and young people.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

The Financial Information Forum of central banks of Latin America and the Caribbean will meet in Mexico City, Mexico.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken travels to Moldova for meetings with President Maia Sandu to discuss Moldova’s progress on EU accession and energy security.
Ohio Governor Mike DeWine has called a Special Session of the State Legislature to deal with a bill that will put President Biden on the state’s November ballot. The legislature failed to pass the bill last week before adjourning.
Closing arguments in the criminal trial of former President Trump will begin in New York.

Economic Reports/Events –

Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech entitled “AI and the Economy” at the Al-nomics: The Nexus of GenAI+ the Economy at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in San Francisco, California. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly will also speak and host the event.
Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to speak and participates in panel before the Barclays-CEPR International Monetary Policy Forum in London.
Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (May)/ PPI (April)/ Net Payrolls (April)
Canada PPI (April)/ Raw Materials Prices (April)
USA S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (March)/ House Price Index (March)/ Fed Kashkari Speech/ CB Consumer Confidence (May)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (May)/ Money Supply (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann travels to Indonesia for talks with President Joko Widodo about next steps for the nation’s entry into the OECD. Indonesia was granted accession status to the 38-member organization in February 2024. Indonesia hopes to complete the accession process within the next 2 to 3 years, thus making the country more attractive to foreign investment.
The SEMICON Southeast Asia 2024 trade show begins in Kuala Lumpur. The three-day event brings together thousands of electronics companies from China, Japan, South Korea, Europe, and the US.Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Australia Retail Sales MoM Prel (April)
Malaysia PPI (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

The European Economic Area Council meets in Brussels. The EEA Council will discuss the overall functioning of the EEA Agreement and hold an orientation debate on the role of the green transition in Europe’s competitiveness: challenges and opportunities.
Today marks the Founding of the Democratic Republic of Azerbaijan in 1918.

Economic Reports/Events –

Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Catherine Mann will speak at the Barclays-CEPR International Monetary Policy Forum in London.
ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot will speak at the Barclays-CEPR International Monetary Policy Forum in London.
European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a panel discussion at the 2024 BOJ-IMES conference on "Price Dynamics and Monetary Policy Challenges - Lessons Learned and Going Forward" in Tokyo, Japan.
Euro Area ECB Schnabel Speech
Germany Wholesale Prices (April)
Slovenia Retail Sales (April)
France Unemployment Benefit Claims (April)/ Jobseekers Total (April)
Ireland Retail Sales (April)
Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Israel Composite Economic Index (April)
Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (April)/ Private Bank Lending (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Today is National Day in Ethiopia, marking the day when the Derg – the dictatorial reign of Mengistu Hailie Marian, ended in 1991.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, May 29, 2024

Global

The Artic Congress 2024 is held through June 3 in Bodø, Norway.
The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to participate in roundtable with local leaders to hear about business conditions and municipal and community services in New York.
Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to participate in a moderated conversation on “Economic Outlook and Leadership" before the American Economic Association Conference on Teaching and Research in Economic Education in Atlanta, Georgia.
Brazil IGP-M Inflation (May)/ Gross Debt to GDP (April)/ Nominal Budget Balance (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)
Federal Reserve’s Beige Book is released/USA MBA Purchase Index (May/24)/ Redbook (May/25)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (May)/ Richmond Fed Services Index (May)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (May)/ Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/24)
Mexico Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Australia Westpac Leading Index (April)/ Construction Work Done QoQ (Q1)/ Monthly CPI Indicator (April)
New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (May)
Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Toyoaki Nakamura gives a speech to local leaders in Sapporo, Japan.
Japan Consumer Confidence (May)
Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision
Vietnam Balance of Trade (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Tourist Arrivals (May)
Singapore Export & Import Prices (April)/ PPI (April)
India M3 Money Supply (May/17)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (June)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (May)/ Bavaria CPI (May)/ Brandenburg CPI (May)/ Hesse CPI (May)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (May)/ Saxony CPI (May)/ Inflation Rate YoY Prel (May)
France Consumer Confidence (May)
Spain Retail Sales (April)
Euro Area Loans to Companies (April)/ Loans to Households (April)/ M3 Money Supply (April)
Italy Business Confidence (May)/ Consumer Confidence (May)
Poland Inflation Rate YoY Prel (May)
Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (May)
Greece Total Credit (April)
Russia Industrial Production (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Morocco will host the GITEX Africa conference in Marrakech through May 31, and attendees will discuss Africa's prospects in the fields of artificial intelligence and digital growth.

Economic Reports/Events –

Qatar Balance of Trade (April)
Jordan Industrial Production (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

South Africa holds presidential elections and elections for the 400-member National Assembly. They will also vote on nine provincial legislatures. The parliament will then select the president. The ruling African National Congress (ANC) is likely to remain in power through a slim majority or through a coalition with several smaller parties. President Cyril Ramaphosa is likely to be elected for a second term (until 2029 ).

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, May 30, 2024

Global

The UN the Security Council is expected to vote on a draft resolution renewing the mandate of the UN Assistant Mission for Iraq (UNAMI), and on South Sudan sanctions and on Libya [SCR 2292]. This will be followed with a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Syria). In the afternoon, a briefing at the Council is expected by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Filippo Grandi.
The AI for Good Summit will be held in Geneva, Switzerland. The summit will bring together governments, non-profit research institutions, corporations and international organizations to discuss how to regulate AI.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken travels to the Czech Republic for meetings with Foreign Minister Jan Lipavasky. He will also participate in an informal meeting of NATO Foreign Ministers.

Economic Reports/Events –

New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to speak before hybrid Signature Luncheon event hosted by the Economic Club of New York.
Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan to speak before the Borderplex Alliance Distinguished Speaker Series in El Paso, Texas.
Mexico Unemployment Rate (April)/ Fiscal Balance (April)
Canada Current Account (Q1)/ Average Weekly Earnings (March)
USA GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est (Q1)/ Corporate Profits QoQ Prel (Q1)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (April)/ Initial Jobless Claims (May)/25/ Continuing Jobless Claims (May/18)/ Real Consumer Spending QoQ 2nd Est (Q1)/ Pending Home Sales (April)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (May/24)
Chile Unemployment Rate (April)
Argentina Consumer Confidence (May)
Uruguay Unemployment Rate (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Hong Kong national security courts is expected to hand down a final verdict on the case of 47 activists and former lawmakers.
The 10th China-Arab States Cooperation Forum is held in Beijing.
Vanuatu holds a constitutional referendum. Voters will be asked whether they approve of several proposed amendments to the constitution regarding the regulation of political parties and motions of no confidence.

Economic Reports/Events –

New Zealand Building Permits (April)
Australia RBA Hunter Speech/ Building Permits MoM Prel (April)/ Building Capital Expenditure QoQ (Q1)/ Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure QoQ (Q1)/ Private Capital Expenditure QoQ (Q1)/ Private House Approvals MoM Prel (April)/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (May)
Japan Foreign Bond Investment (May/25)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (May/25)
Philippines PPI (April)
Singapore Bank Lending (April)
Taiwan GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

The UK Parliament will be dissolved in advance of the general election in July.
Spain’s Parliament will vote on an amnesty bill for Calatagan separatists.
There will be an informal meeting of NATO Ministers of Foreign Affairs in Prague, Czechia.
The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Brussels. Ministers will discuss trade and competitiveness and the future of EU trade policy, the state of play of trade and investment relations between the EU and Africa, and the follow-up to the 13th World Trade Organization Ministerial Conference (MC13).
The EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council (Energy) meets in Brussels. Energy ministers will approve conclusions on sustainable electricity grid infrastructure, followed by a discussion on the future of REPowerEU. They will also discuss the European Green Deal and how it can help transform the EU into a modern, resource-efficient, and competitive economy. They will also discuss the final and updated national energy and climate plans submitted by member states, which are instrumental in achieving the Green Deal objectives and agreed EU-wide targets. They are also expected to formally adopt the decision on the withdrawal of the EU and Euratom from the Energy Charter Treaty, together with the decision on the position to be taken on behalf of the EU and Euratom in the upcoming Energy Charter Conference.

Economic Reports/Events –

The European Central Bank and a number of European financial markets and banks are closed for the Corpus Christi holiday.
Ireland Consumer Confidence (May)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate YoY Prel (May)
Great Britain Car Production (April)
Switzerland SNB Jordan Speech/ Balance of Trade (April)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1)/ KOF Leading Indicators (May)
Romania Unemployment Rate (April)
Slovakia Business Confidence (May)/ Consumer Confidence (May)
Spain Inflation Rate YoY Prel (May)/ Business Confidence (May)
Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (April)/ Economic Confidence Index (May)/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/24)
Italy Unemployment Rate (April)/ PPI (April)
Euro Area Economic Sentiment (May)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ Consumer Confidence Final (May)/ Industrial Sentiment (May)/ Services Sentiment (May)
Greece PPI (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)
Russia Unemployment Rate (Q1)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, China. bilateral relations between the two countries and opportunities for further cooperation and collaboration, especially in the economic, developmental, and cultural fields.

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Madagascar holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

The World Bank’s board will meet to decide on Kenya’s funding under development policy financing, which would lead to the release of between $900 million and $1.2 billion for budget support.Nothing significant to report.
South Africa M3 Money Supply (April)/ Private Sector Credit (April)/ PPI (April)/ Budget Balance (April)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

Friday, May 31, 2024

Global

Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will participate in the International Institute for Strategic Studies hosts the Shanri-La Dialogue in Singapore. He is expected to meet with his Chinese counterpart, Admiral Dong Jun. It will be the first meeting between the two defense leaders, and they are expected to discuss tensions with Taiwan and other security issues in the Indo-Pacific. Austin will then travel on to Cambodia for meetings with senior officials and then to France to mark the 80th Anniversary of D-Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to give commencement speech at Augusta Technical College, in Augusta, Texas.
Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)
Canada GDP (March)/ Budget Balance (March)
USA Core PCE Price Index (April)/ Personal Income (April)/ Personal Spending (April)/ Chicago PMI (May)
Chile Copper Production (April)/ Industrial & Manufacturing Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)
Colombia Unemployment Rate (April)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (April)
Brazil Balance of Trade (May)
Uruguay Balance of Trade (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

The International Institute for Strategic Studies hosts the Shanri-La Dialogue in Singapore. The Dialogue has become one of the most important independent forums for the exchange of views by international security policy decision-makers. Besides the host nation, countries that have participated in the dialogue have included most Asian countries, as well as those from North America and Europe.

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

South Korea Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)
Japan Unemployment Rate (April)/ Jobs/applications ratio (April)/ Tokyo CPI (May)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Industrial Production YoY Prel (April)/ Housing Starts (April)/ Construction Orders (April)
Australia Private Sector Credit (April)/ Commodity Prices (May)
China NBS General PMI (May)
Thailand Industrial Production (April)
Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision/ Inflation Rate (May)
Malaysia M3 Money Supply (April)
Thailand Current Account (April)/ Private Consumption & Investment (April)
Hong Kong Retail Sales (April)
Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (May)/ PPI (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)
India Government Budget Value (March)/ Government Budget Value (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/24)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1)
Pakistan Consumer Confidence (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

NATO’s “Steadfast Defender 24” military exercise concludes. The largest NATO military exercise held since the end of the Cold War began in January.

Economic Reports/Events –

France Non-Farm Payrolls QoQ (Q1)/ Inflation Rate YoY Prel (May)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)/ PPI (April)
Germany Retail Sales (April)/ Import Prices (April)
Hungary Balance of Trade Final (March)/ PPI (April)
Switzerland Retail Sales (April)
Turkey GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1)/ Financial Stability Report
Italy GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)/ Inflation Rate YoY Prel (May)/ Industrial Sales (March)/ New Car Registrations (May)
Spain Current Account (March)
Slovenia Inflation Rate (May)
Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (April)/ M4 Money Supply (April)/ Mortgage Approvals & Lending (April)/ Nationwide Housing Prices (May)
Euro Area Inflation Rate YoY Flash (May)/ CPI Flash (May)
Greece Retail Sales (March)
Ireland Average Weekly Earnings YoY (Q1)/ Construction Output YoY (Q1)
Russia Balance of Trade (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)/ Corporate Profits (March)/ M2 Money Supply (April)
Ukraine Current Account (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)
South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (May)
Kenya Inflation Rate (May)

Saturday, June 1, 2024

Global

The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee will meet in Geneva, Switzerland, to discuss production quotas.
South Korea takes the Chair of the UN Security Council for the month of June.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele is inaugurated for a second term.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

India begins the 7th round of voting.
Today is Independence Day in Samoa, marking the day in 1962 when the country gained independence from New Zealand.

significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Iceland holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Kenya celebrates Madaraka Day, marking the day the country gained independence from the UK in 1963.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 2, 2024

Global

Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Mexico holds presidential, senatorial, and chamber of deputy’s elections. Claudia Sheinbaum (ruling party MORENA) is expected to win against her opponent, Xochitl Galvez (opposition party PAN).

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Serbia reruns Belgrade’s December elections. The rerun is a result of complaints of widespread voter fraud.
Italy celebrates Republic Day today, marking the day in 1946 when the country voted to become a republic following the end of World War II.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 5/24/24 Francis Kelly 5/24/24

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

May 28 - 31, 2024

Summer has arrived in Washington with the celebration of Memorial Day on Monday. Congress is out of session for the week, and there are no significant regulatory meetings or speeches (aside from CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam and Commissioners Kristen Johnson and Caroline Pham giving speeches at the IOSCO meeting in Athens, Greece.

Last week in Washington's regulatory world was another busy one. The House of Representatives passed an anti-CBDC bill that would stop the Federal Reserve from launching a central bank digital currency. We do not see the Senate taking up the bill. Still, the issue won't disappear as we expect it to be a constant secondary political issue on the campaign trail (we get questions about the chances of the Fed moving on launching a CBDC constantly in talks we give around the country – there is a lot of concern out there about it).

The House also passed a crypto trading regulatory bill sponsored by House Financial Services Committee Chair Patrick McHenry (R-NC). Seen as a legacy-defining moment for McHenry, the bill got seventy-one Democrats to join with 208 Republicans to pass it. Among the Democrats who voted for it were former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and House Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-MA) – – despite the strong opposition of SEC Chair Gary Gensler.

Also last week, McHenry (R-NC) asked FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg to testify on June 12 on misconduct allegations at the agency. McHenry wrote a letter to Gruenberg saying, "Republican and Democratic members alike noted an inability to fully understand your responses relate to both the toxic workplace culture at the FDIC and your leadership at the agency."

The pressure on FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg to step down is intensifying, with calls for his immediate resignation even before a successor is nominated and confirmed by the Senate. The situation may have worsened for Gruenberg with the release of a memo from the FDIC Inspector General, which reported allegations of misconduct involving senior officials that were not promptly disclosed to her office. This development further underscores the gravity of the misconduct allegations at the agency.

Below is a listing of all the other significant regulatory-related events this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

The Senate is out for the week in observance of Memorial Day. However, the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Economic Policy Subcommittee (chaired by Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) will hold a field hearing in Boston, Massachusetts, entitled "The Economic and Health Impacts of Threats to Reproductive Rights."

House of Representatives

The House is out for the week in observance of Memorial Day.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

Tuesday, May 28, 1:05 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech entitled “AI and the Economy” at the Al-nomics: The Nexus of GenAI+ the Economy at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in San Francisco, California.
Tuesday, May 28, TBD – Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly will speak a the Al-nomics: The Nexus of GenAI+ the Economy at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in San Francisco, California.

U.S. Treasury Department

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

Monday, May 27, 11:00 a.m. Athens, Greece Time – CFTC Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will participate in a Regulatory Workshop - “Retail Investor Protection in a Digital World: Finfluencers, Gamification and the Evolving Trading Landscape” at the IOSCO Annual Meeting in Athens, Greece.
Monday, May 27, 4:00 p.m. Athens, Greece Time – CFTC Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will speak at a Regulatory Workshop titled “New SupTech: Exchange of Experiences” at the 49th Annual Meeting of the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) in Athens, Greece.
Wednesday, May 29, 1:00 p.m. Athens, Greece Time – CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam will participate in a fireside chat at the CCP Global Annual General Meeting 2024 in Athens, Greece.
Wednesday, May 29, 2:45 p.m. Athens Greece Time – CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam will keynote at the HCMC Public Conference “Climate in the Center of Economy” in Athens, Greece.
Wednesday, May 29, 3:45 p.m. Athens, Greece Time – CFTC Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will speak on a panel titled “Digital Finance, Fintech and Crypto Assets: Supervision Challenges and Experiences Including Issues relating to Sustainability” at the Hellenic Capital Market Commission (HCMC) Public Conference at the IOSCO Annual Meeting in Athens, Greece.

FINRA

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

Wednesday, May 29 – 30 – The OCC hosts Project REACh Financial Inclusion Summit in Washington, D.C. Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu will speak.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

Monday/Tuesday, May 27 – 28 – The Institute for International Finance holds their IIF-Amazon Web Services-South East Asian Central Banks Centre Financial Services and Cloud Summit in Kuala Lumpur.
Monday, May 27, 3:00 a.m. EDT – The Institute for International Finance holds its IIF ASEAN and China Roundtable in Kuala Lumpur.

Think Tanks and Other Events

Friday, May 30, 2:30 p.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a webcast entitled “Understanding the new dynamics of agri-food trade: Perspectives from Pascal Lamay.”

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 5/24/24 Francis Kelly 5/24/24

Global Week Ahead

Memorial Day is a week from this Monday, traditionally seen as the beginning of Summer in the US. Much of the rest of the Northern Hemisphere is roughly on the same seasonal scheduling, and we suspect we are looking forward to (hopefully) a peaceful and somewhat relaxing summer. But before we get to our beach vacations or mountain hideaways for a break, plenty is going on geopolitically.

First, as we got ready to publish this note, news broke that Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and other senior Iranian officials had gone down in a helicopter crash in the northwest sector of Iran. The video footage of the rescue effort showed a dense fog hanging over the mountainous terrain, and no one had found the wreckage yet, nor had we known who was still alive.

However, the impact of any Iranian leadership will likely worry the markets. We would note, however, that Raisi is not the ultimate leader – Supreme Leader Khamenei is – and the idea of any internal struggles or regional risk developing from the crash is unlikely for many reasons (which we would be more than happy to discuss if you want separately).

Also, this week, Taiwan inaugurates a new president on Monday. Lai Ching-te is replacing Tsai Ing-wen, and Lai’s inauguration speech will be closely watched for signs of how he will navigate the tense cross-strait relationship with China. Lai’s cabinet choices and his experience in and around the government suggest a status quo relationship with Beijing going forward (not great, but hopefully not getting more inflamed).

Meanwhile, later this week, the Prime Ministers of Japan, China, and South Korea will gather for the first time since 2019 for trilateral meetings in Seoul, South Korea. China—which is Japan’s and South Korea’s largest trading partner—will likely warn the two countries about their growing security and trade engagement with the US. However, a good portion of the talks will be on mutual concerns and interests, such as climate change, the situation in North Korea, and trade.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, G7 finance ministers and central bank heads will gather in Italy later this week to discuss the global economic outlook and the economic impact of the Russian War on Ukraine. Watch for further decisions on whether to seize Russian assets held in the West to fund the Ukrainian defense efforts.

Regarding economic data releases this week, the Federal Reserve releases its meeting minutes on Wednesday. Staying in the US, the University of Michigan Survey comes out on Friday, and durable goods orders are also available.

In Europe, markets will watch the UK inflation data report, the German PPI report, and Germany’s Q1 GDP figures.

In Asia, Japan releases its CPI on Friday, while China provides its monthly decision on its loan prime rate. Finally, central bank monetary meetings will be held in Indonesia, South Korea, and Turkey this week.

Below is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, May 19, 2024

Global

· The UN’s 10th World Water Forum, under the theme ‘Water for Shared Prosperity’, will take play 18-25 May in Bali, Indonesia. Heads of state, heads of international organizations, high level government officials, experts, scholars, entrepreneurs and economists from all over the world will share their knowledges, experiences, and practices regarding a wide range of topics related to water.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Dominican Republic holds presidential and legislative elections. Incumbent President Luis Abinader, from the Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM), is expected to win a second term.

· President Joe Biden delivers address at Morehouse College’s commencement ceremony. Protests are expected over the US support for Israel and a number of faculty, and students have demanded the invitation be rescinded.

· U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will travel to Saudi Arabia and Israel through May 19.

· Mexican opposition supporters will march in Mexico City and other major cities across the country to support democracy and partially to support presidential candidate Xochitl Galvez.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives the Commencement Remarks at the Georgetown Law Commencement Ceremony in Washington, D.C.

· The Atlanta Federal Reserve holds their 28th Annual Financial Markets Conference. A number of central bankers, market participants, and other experts will be speaking.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Cambodia and China will conduct "Golden Dragon" military exercises through May 30.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Truck drivers in South Africa will go on strike across the country to protest the employment of foreign nationals within the local logistics industry.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 20, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security. In the afternoon, it is expected to hold a vote on a draft resolution on non-proliferation.

· The UN’s Global Transparency Forum is set to take place from 20 to 21 May 2024 at the United Nations University in Tokyo, Japan. The forum will discuss the pivotal role of transparency in climate action as required under the Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF) of the Paris Agreement. The forum is organized by the Capacity-building Initiative for Transparency - Global Support Programme (CBIT-GSP), with support from the Global Environment Facility (GEF), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the UNEP Copenhagen Climate Centre (UNEP-CCC), UNDP Climate Promise and it is hosted by the Ministry of the Environment of Japan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to give welcome remarks before the 2024 Financial Markets Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Later that day, at 6:00 p.m. he will moderate a session at the Conference’s dinner.

· US Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Bank of New York jointly host the annual International Roles of the US Dollar conference today and tomorrow in Washington. Speakers include Fed governor Christopher Waller.

· The Peterson Institute for International Economics hosts a virtual discussion entitled "The U.S. economy and monetary policy” with Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller.

· Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech entitled “U.S. Economic Outlook and Housing Price Dynamics” at the Mortgage Bankers.

· Mexico Retail Sales (March)

· Chile Current Account (Q1)/ GDP Growth Rate (Q1)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· Argentina Leading Indicator (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Taiwan holds the presidential inauguration ceremonies for Lai Ching-te who is replacing Tsai Ing-wen. It also starts an unprecedented third-term in power for Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Lai's inauguration speech will be closely watched for signs of how he will navigate the tense cross-strait relationship with China.

· Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman arrives in Tokyo for a four-day official visit, accompanied by Saudi business leaders for talks with Japanese companies on investments and climate technology co-operation.

· India begins its 5th phase of elections, Lok Sabha.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Financial markets closed for the fifth phase of the parliamentary elections.

· Thailand GDP Growth Rate (Q1)

· Indonesia Current Account (Q1)

· Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

· Japan Tertiary Industry Index (March)

· Taiwan Export Orders (April)/ Current Account (Q1)

· Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's term will end. He then becomes the “acting” president has elections have been suspended due to the war.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Financial markets in Germany, Switzerland, Denmark, Norway, Belgium, and Austria are closed for Whi Monday (The day after Pentecost holiday).

· Bank of England Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent speaks at the New Evidence on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism workshop in London.

· Italy Construction Output (March)

· Spain Balance of Trade (March)/ Consumer Confidence (April)

· Slovakia Unemployment Rate (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Kazakhstan Business Confidence (Q1)

· Kuwait Inflation Rate (April)

· Oman M2 Money Supply (March)/ Total Credit (March)

· Qatar Inflation Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Kenya GDP Growth Rate (Q4)

Tuesday, May 21, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an Open Debate on the protection of civilians in armed conflict: 25th Anniversary of SCR 1265 (1999).

· The UN’s Trade and Development Organization hosts the inaugural Global Supply Chain Forum in Bridgetown, Barbados.

· The OECD’s Forum on Responsible Mineral Supply Chains will be held through May 24 in Paris.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Wall Street Journal’s Future of Everything Festival begins and runs through May 23 in New York.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to give opening remarks before the"2024 Investing in Rural America Conference: Building and Maintaining Momentum" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to give "welcome back" remarks before the 2024 Financial Markets Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to give opening remarks at 2024 Governance and Culture Reform Conference.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives welcoming remarks at the Third Conference on the International Roles of the U.S. Dollar, Washington, D.C.

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to moderate "Central Banking in the Post-Pandemic Financial System" panel before the 2024 Financial Markets Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

· USA Redbook (May/18/API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/17)

· Canada Inflation Rate (April)/ CPI Median (April)

· Argentina Balance of Trade (April)

· Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

· Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (April)

· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Indo-Pacific Business Forum begins in Manila. Co-hosted by the US and the Philippines, the event allows networking and discussions about critical infrastructure needs in the region.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Consumer Confidence (May)

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (May)/ RBA Meeting Minutes

· New Zealand Credit Card Spending (April)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (May/21)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol participate in the AI Seoul Summit, building on the Bletchley Declaration and the discussions of the Summit hosted by the UK last year.

· EU foreign affairs ministers will meet in Brussels, Belgium, where Spain, Ireland and others are expected to recognize the state of Palestine.

· The 8th EU-Republic of Moldova Association Council will be held in Brussels. The meeting is considered particularly important as Moldova has increasingly become a focus for Russian interference with rising risk of further destabilization. There is a break-away providence of Moldova – Transnistria – which has sworn their alliance to Moscow.

· The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels. Minister are expected to discuss Ukraine, security and defense issues, general trade and investment competitiveness, and the next institutional EU cycle.

· The EU Transport, Telecommunication, and Energy Council (Telecom) meets in Brussels to discuss collaborative approach for consistent implementation of the recently adopted legislation in the digital field. The Council will also approve conclusions on the future of EU’s digital policy and on the future of cybersecurity. Over an informal lunch, ministers will discuss the subject of promoting digital skills for an inclusive digital transformation and inclusion. Finally, as an item without discussion, the Council is expected to adopt the artificial intelligence act.

· The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal Market & Industry) meets in Brussels. The ministers are expected to approve Council conclusions on “A competitive European industry driving our green, digital and resilient industrial future”.

· German Economy Minister Robert Habeck attends the start of the main construction phase of NeuConnect, the first direct power link between Germany and the U.K., in Wilhemshaven, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey delivers a lecture in honor of London School of Economics Charles Goodhart, hosted by the Financial Markets Group.

· Bank of England External Member of the Financial Policy Committee Randall Kroszner gives the keynote speech at the London City Week Conference entitled “Balancing the productivity opportunities of financial technology and AI against the potential risks” in London.

· Bank of England Executive Director for Financial Market Infrastructure Sasha Mills gives a speech at the London City Week Conference in London.

· Germany PPI (April)

· Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech/ Current Account (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Construction Output (March)

· Greece Current Account (March)

· CBI Industrial Trends Orders (May

· Slovenia PPI (April)

· Italy Current Account (March)

· Hungary Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Lebanon Inflation Rate (April)

· Israel Inflation Expectations (May)

· Qatar M2 Money Supply (April)/ Total Credit Growth (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The International Energy Agency’s annual Global Conference on Energy Efficiency will take place in Nairobi through May 22. This is the first time the Conference has been held in Africa.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (March)

· Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, May 22, 2024

Global

· The World Trade Organization (WTO) holds its General Council meeting in Geneva, Switzerland.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to go into consultations on the 1718 Committee (this goes to UN sanctions on North Korea).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development hosts a conference on economic and trade policies in Latin America in Paris, France at the OECD headquarters.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes published, MBA Purchase Index (May/17)/ Existing Home Sales (April)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (May/17)

· Paraguay PPI (April)

· Argentina Economic Activity (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Business Confidence (May)/ PPI (April)

· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (May)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Machinery Orders (March)

· New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

· Indonesia Loan Growth (April)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit & Lending Facility Rate (May)

· Taiwan Unemployment Rate (April)

· Australia RBA Payments System Board Meeting

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Foreign Ministers of Poland, France, and Germany – the “Weimar Triangle” – will meet in Thuringia, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a video message at an ESMA online event focused on the launch of its position paper on the effectiveness of capital markets in the EU.

· Bank of England deputy governor for financial stability Sarah Breeden speaks at the European Commission technical workshop in Brussels on macroprudential policies for non-bank financial intermediation.

· The ECB Governing Council holds a retreat hosted by the Bank of Ireland.

· Euro Area New Car Registrations (April)

· Great Britain Inflation Rate (April)/ PPI Input & Output (April)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing (April)

· Poland Corporate Sector Wages (April)/ Employment Growth (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ PPI (April)

· Ireland Wholesale Prices (April)

· Russia PPI (April)

· Turkey Central Government Debt (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing PMI (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Rate (April)

Thursday, May 23, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an Open Debate on maintenance of international peace and security: Strengthening the role of the African state in addressing global security and development challenges.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Biden hosts Kenyan President William Ruto to celebrate 60 years of diplomatic relations. Talks between the two leaders are expected to focus on clean energy, mutual trade and a possible free trade agreement, and security concerns in Africa.

· US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen awarded honorary doctorate by Frankfurt School of Finance & Management in Frankfurt, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to participate in a virtual question-and-answer session with students in MBA macroeconomic class at the Stanford Graduate School of Business.

· Brazil BCB National Monetary Council Meeting

· Mexico GDP Growth Rate Final (Q1)/ Economic Activity (March)/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (May)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Canada New Housing Price Index (April)

· USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (April)/ Initial Jobless Claims (May/18)/ S&P Global Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (May)/ New Home Sales (April)/ Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Index (May)

· El Salvador Balance of Trade (April)

· Argentina Retail Sales (March)

· Chile Interest Rate Decision

· Peru Current Account (Q1)/ GDP Growth Rate (Q1)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nikkei hosts the 29th Future of Asia Forum in Tokyo through May 24. This year's main theme is "Asian leadership in an uncertain world." Political leaders set to attend the two-day event include Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, Singapore Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong, Vietnam Deputy Prime Minister Le Minh Khai and Cambodia's Deputy Prime Minister Sun Chanthol.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Retail Sales (Q1)

· Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (May)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (May)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (May/18)/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (May)

· South Korea Interest Rate Decision

· India HSBC Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (May)

· Singapore Inflation Rate (April)

· Taiwan Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)

· Hong Kong Inflation Rate (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Candidates vying to head next European Commission Presidency hold debate in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Hungary Gross Wage (March)

· Turkey Consumer Confidence (May)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/17)/ Overnight Borrowing & Lending Rate (May)

· France HCOB Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (May)

· Germany HCOB Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (May)

· Euro Area HCOB Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (May)/ Consumer Confidence Flash (May)/ Negotiated Wage Growth (Q1)

· Poland Retail Sales (April)

· Slovenia Consumer Confidence (May)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

· Great Britain S&P Global Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (May)/ BoE Pill Speech

· Slovakia Current Account (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, May 24, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech at the Reykjavik Economic Conference, Reykjavik, Iceland.

· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (May)/ Current Account (April)/ Foreign Direct Investment (April)

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (May)/ Retail Sales (March)

· Mexico Balance of Trade (April)/ Current Account (Q1)

· USA Durable Goods Orders (April)/ Michigan Current Conditions Final (May)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (May/24)

· Chile PPI (April)

· Colombia Business Confidence (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in East Timor, celebrating when the country gained its independence from Portugal in 1975.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (May)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

· Japan Inflation Rate (April)

· Singapore GDP Growth Rate Final (Q1)/ Current Account (Q1)/ Industrial Production (April)

· Malaysia Inflation Rate (April)/ Leading Index (March)

· Taiwan M2 Money Supply (April)

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/17)

· Philippines Budget Balance (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NATO’s Parliamentary Assembly Spring Session opens in Sofia, Bulgaria.

· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet with Portuguese Prime Minister Luís Montenegro in Berlin.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a keynote speech at the Bonn-Frankfurt-Mannheim PhD Conference in Bonn, Germany.

· Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (May)/ Retail Sales (April)

· Germany GDP Growth Rate Final (Q1)

· Hungary Unemployment Rate (April)

· Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls (Q1)

· France Business Confidence (May)/ Business Climate Indicator (May)

· Spain PPI (April)

· Turkey Tourist Arrivals (April)

· Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (April)

· Poland M3 Money Supply (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Kuwait M2 Money Supply (April)/ Private Bank Lending (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Republic Day in Cameroon, celebrating the establishment of a unitary government in 1972 and doing away with the federal system that had been in place.

· Today is Independence Day in Eritrea, celebrating the day in 1991 when the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front moved in the capital of Asmara and reinstated independence after a war with Ethiopia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (April)

· Nigeria GDP Growth Rate (Q1)

Saturday, May 25, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Revolution Day in Argentina.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· India begins its sixth phase of elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Jordan celebrates Independence Day today, marking the day in 1946 when the country gained its freedom from the United Kingdom.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 26, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Guyana celebrates Independence Day, marking the day in 1966 when they gained their independence from the United Kingdom.

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Prime Ministers of China, Japan, and South Korea are scheduled to hold meetings today and through tomorrow in Seoul, South Korea. China is Japan and South Korea’s largest trading partner, and all three nations have concerns over North Korea’s behavior and posture. The meetings will also focus on climate change and other areas of mutual concern.

· Cambodia holds provincial elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· French President Emanual Macron begins an official state visit to Germany.

· Lithuania holds presidential election run-off votes.

· Today is Independence Day in Georgia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Vice President Piero Cipollone gives a speech entitled "Climate change and monetary policy" at Festival dell'Economia di Trento 2024 in Trento, Italy.

· Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Unemployment Rate (April)/ Manufacturing Production (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 5/19/24 Francis Kelly 5/19/24

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week

May 20 - 24, 2024

This coming Monday is Memorial Day, the traditional beginning of Summer in Washington and the rest of the US. In advance of the three-day holiday, regulators are engaging in several meetings and speaking events. Of particular note, Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr is giving two important speeches this week on regulation while the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank is holding its 28th Annual Financial Markets Conference.

Also this week, the Investment Company Institute is holding its annual meeting in Washington, and SEC Chair Gary Gensler will speak and participate in a fireside chat to discuss issues of concern to the mutual fund industry.

Washington is still talking about the ongoing crisis at the FDIC in the wake of the independent report implicating FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg for bullying and inappropriate behavior and tolerating bad behavior among senior managers. Gruenberg endured two grueling hearings before the House Financial Services Committee and Senate Banking Committee last week but seems to have survived as a number of Congressional Democrats came to his defense. Gruenberg continues to refuse to step down, but we believe the pressure will continue, and the situation will remain tense at the FDIC.

Also last week, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau had a big week, triumphantly winning a Supreme Court case (7-2 vote) upholding the agency's legitimacy and ability to bring regulations against payday lenders. This ends years of uncertainty about the future of the CFPB and has boosted CFPB Director Rohit Chopra's agenda, which focuses on credit card fees. "The CFPB will be able to forge ahead with our law enforcement work," Chopra told reporters after the decision was handed down.

Reviewing Congress last week, the House Financial Services Committee moved several pieces of legislation for the full House of Representatives to vote on in the coming weeks. One is legislation making fewer banks subject to key regulations such as the Volcker Rule while scrutinizing the Federal Reserve's bank merger, stress testing, and discount processes. Another bill they passed would direct the SEC to conduct cost-benefit analyses of its rules and review them every five years.

Both bills have little chance of advancing once they pass the House and are sent to the Senate Banking Committee.

Below is a listing of all the other significant regulatory-related events this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· Tuesday, May 21, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Finance Committee holds a hearing entitled “Child Savings Accounts and Other Tax-Advantaged Accounts Benefitting American Children.”

· Wednesday, May 22, 2:30 p.m. – The Senate Banking Committee’s Economic Policy Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Protecting Consumers' Pocketbooks: Lowering Food Prices and Combatting Corporate Price Gouging and Consolidation."

House of Representatives

· Wednesday, May 22, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Housing and Insurance Subcommittee holds a hearing on "PHA (Public Housing Agencies) Oversight: How Scandals and Mismanagement Harm Residents and Taxpayers."

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Sunday – Wednesday, May 19 – 22 – The Atlanta Federal Reserve holds its 28th Annual Financial Markets Conference. A number of central bankers, market participants, and other experts will be speaking.

· Monday, May 20, 7:45 a.m. – Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to give welcome remarks before the 2024 Financial Markets Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Later that day, at 6:00 p.m., he will moderate a session at the Conference’s dinner.

· Monday, May 20, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics hosts a virtual discussion entitled "The U.S. economy and monetary policy” with Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller.

· Monday, May 20, 10:30 a.m. – Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech entitled “U.S. Economic Outlook and Housing Price Dynamics” at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Secondary and Capital Markets Conference, New York, N.Y.

· Tuesday, May 21, 8:00 a.m. – Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to give opening remarks before the"2024 Investing in Rural America Conference: Building and Maintaining Momentum" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

· Tuesday, May 21, 8:10 a.m.: Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic will give "welcome back" remarks before the 2024 Financial Markets Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

· Tuesday, May 21, 8:45 a.m.: New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams will give the opening remarks at the 2024 Governance and Culture Reform Conference.

· Tuesday, May 21, 9:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives welcoming remarks at the Third Conference on the International Roles of the U.S. Dollar, Washington, D.C.

· Tuesday, May 21, 6:00 p.m. – Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to moderate the "Central Banking in the Post-Pandemic Financial System" panel before the 2024 Financial Markets Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

· Monday, May 20, 9:00 a.m. – Federal Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr entitled “Monetary Policy and Bank Regulation” at the 2024 Financial Markets Conference, Fernandina Beach, Florida.

· Thursday, May 23, 2:00 p.m. – Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to participate in a virtual question-and-answer session with students in MBA macroeconomic class at the Stanford Graduate School of Business.

· Friday, May 24, 9:35 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech at the Reykjavik Economic Conference, Reykjavik, Iceland.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Wednesday, May 23, 8:30 a.m. – SEC Chair Gary Gensler will participate in a fireside chat at the Investment Company Institute’s 2024 Leadership Summit in Washington, DC.

· Thursday, May 24, 11:00 a.m. – Thursday at 11:00 a.m., SEC Enforcement Director Gurbir Grewal and other division officials will speak at the Securities Enforcement Forum West 2024 conference.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Monday, May 20, 11:00 a.m. London Time – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will speak on a panel discussing international financial regulation at City Week 2024.

· Tuesday, May 21, 11:00 a.m. London Time – CFTC Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will speak at a featured fireside chat on the CFTC’s role in regulating digital assets at City Week 2024.

· Wednesday, May 22, 9:10 a.m. London Time – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will participate in a keynote interview at the Financial Times’ Moral Money Summit.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· Wednesday, May 22, 10:00 a.m. – the NCUA Board holds an open meeting. You can find the agenda HERE.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· Monday, May 20, 1:00 p.m. – The FTC holds a closed meeting.

· Wednesday, May 23, 1:00 p.m. – The FTC holds an Open Meeting.

· Wednesday, May 23, 2:00 p.m. – The FTC holds an event entitled “Supporting Older Adults to Fight Against Fraud”

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Tuesday – Wednesday, May 21 – 23 – The Investment Company Institute holds the 2024 Leadership Summit in Washington, D.C. House Financial Services Committee Chair Patrick McHenry (R-NC) and SEC Chair Gary Gensler will speak.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Tuesday, May 21, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 9 a.m., on "The U.S. economy and monetary policy” with Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller.

· Tuesday, May 21, 10:00 a.m. – The Brookings Institution holds a discussion entitled “Powering US prosperity and competitiveness through place-based investment”. Alejandra Castillo, the Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Economic Development, will speak.

· Tuesday, May 21, 12:30 p.m. – SIFMA holds a Department of Labor Fiduciary Rule Implementation Workshop.

· Tuesday, May 21, 2:30 p.m. – The R Street Institute holds a discussion entitled “Insurance Fraud: the 300 Billion Dollar Crime.”

· Tuesday, May 21, 3:00 p.m. – The Cato Institute holds a virtual discussion entitled “Would Proposed Antitrust Changes Help or Harm Startups and Small Business?”

· Tuesday, May 22, 11:00 a.m. – SIFMA holds their latest webinar on U.S. – China relations entitled “U.S. – China Relations: Technology National Security, and Financial Services.”

· Wednesday, May 22, 8:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance holds an online discussion entitled “IIF Datatalk: Bigtech, Platforms, and Financial Services.”

· Wednesday, May 22, 1:00 p.m. – The American Enterprise Institute holds an in-person/virtual event entitled “The Federal Reserve and Financial Stability Risk.”

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 5/18/24 Francis Kelly 5/18/24

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