Recommended Weekend Reads

July 26 -28, 2024

Please find below our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

Latin America

• A Second Independence Day? Scenarios for Venezuela’s July 28 Election  Ryan Berg & Alexandra Winkler/Center for Strategic and International Studies

  Expectations for Venezuela’s upcoming elections on July 28 are astronomical. For many Venezuelans, the day represents something akin to a second independence day. Much is at stake: liberty, respect for fundamental human rights, economic and social prosperity, and the reunification of Venezuela’s many separated families, given that nearly 8 million have fled the Maduro regime’s authoritarian grip and unprecedented economic mismanagement.

• Meet the Candidates: Venezuela   Americas Quarterly

  Venezuela’s dictatorship is expected to hold a single-round election for president and vice president on July 28. Most observers do not expect the vote to be free or fair. The ruling PSUV party officially named President Nicolás Maduro as its candidate on January 25. After the nation’s Supreme Court barred leading opposition figure María Corina Machado from participating, Venezuela’s opposition coalition backed Edmundo González Urrutia as its candidate. We will occasionally update this page to reflect developments in the campaigns. AQ also asked a dozen nonpartisan experts on Venezuela to help us identify where each candidate stands on two spectrums: left versus right on economic matters and a more personalistic leadership style versus an emphasis on institutions. We’ve published the average response with a caveat: Platforms evolve, and so do candidates.

• What the U.S. Election Means for Latin America   Americas Quarterly

  Immigration, drug trafficking, nearshoring, and infrastructure investment are all important issues in this election—and they all touch on Latin America.  Former advisers from the Trump and Biden administrations write on the impact another term for their onetime boss would have on the region. 

Africa

• Who Speaks for Africa at COP?  Power and Politics at the UN Climate Negotiations   Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  Although all of Africa contributes less than 4 percent to global greenhouse gases annually, many African countries are especially vulnerable to extreme weather events and are unable to adapt to long-term changes in the climate.1African countries experience an average of 5 to 15 percent GDP loss per year due to climate change.2 But when the countries who are party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) come together at their annual summit (the Conference of Parties, or COP) to discuss how to mitigate and adapt to the negative impacts of climate change, who speaks for the continent of Africa?

•   The Forgotten War in Congo   Foreign Affairs

  Last year, the conflict in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo turned 30. It is a grim milestone, and one that received almost no global attention. The silence isn’t a surprise. Since its inception, the war in Congo has excelled at evading international recognition. Few people noticed when the M23 Movement, the region’s biggest militia, rounded up and executed 171 civilians in November 2022. The world was quiet when Doctors Without Borders declared that they had treated 25,000 survivors of sexual violence in Congo last year. Almost no one outside Africa remembers that, in June, an armed Islamist group massacred 41 people in Congo’s northeast. Today, more than seven million Congolese are displaced, more than at any other time in history, and yet the war still barely features in global media. The New York Times has written 54 articles about Congo in the past twelve months, including ones on the environment and the country’s recent election. It has, by contrast, run 2,969 articles on Ukraine.

The Middle East

• In lawless Gaza, cigarette smuggling fuels attacks on aid trucks   Washington Post

  A black market for cigarettes is booming in the besieged Gaza Strip, a window into the lawlessness and desperation in the enclave nine months into Israel’s war against Hamas. The illicit cigarettes, one of Gaza’s last forms of currency, are hidden inside hollowed-out watermelons and boxes of diapers, smuggled on trucks through Israeli-controlled crossings, and sold for as much as $30 apiece.  Gangs lie in wait along the anarchic road in southern Gaza that runs through military zones, ransacking trucks in search of cigarettes, humanitarian officials say. Once cigarettes reach the open market, Hamas authorities try to take a cut of the sales through fines and extortion, according to traders and civilians. The black market is fueling attacks on humanitarian trucks, hampering desperately needed aid deliveries as relief officials warn of famine.

China 

• The Limits of the China Chip Ban    Foreign Affairs

  In 2022, the Biden administration rolled out export controls to prevent Beijing from obtaining advanced semiconductors and the equipment to produce them domestically. The stated objective of these restrictions was to deny China the cutting-edge AI capabilities it could use to modernize its nuclear and conventional weapons. However, these measures may also protect the United States’ technological and economic edge over China. Although leadership in AI is not officially stipulated as an aim of the restrictions, U.S. officials have regularly asserted that it is central to the country’s competitive economic advantage, which in turn advances its national security. However, the chip controls will probably fall short of achieving either outcome. They are unlikely to substantially slow Beijing’s military modernization, much of which can be accomplished using older legacy chips. Where cutting-edge AI chips are needed, the Chinese military can use previously imported chips, smuggled chips, and domestically designed and produced chips. By impeding China’s ability to develop and deploy AI throughout its economy, the export restrictions could slow China’s growth and curb its competitiveness, thereby helping the United States stay ahead.

• China’s Global Activity: Building Grabs the Spotlight from Owning  Derek Scissors - American Enterprise Institute

  China’s documented global investment shrank modestly in the first half of 2024. Auto and parts production led. However, the dollar value of construction activity surged year over year, topped by building power plants and refineries.  The Chinese Ministry of Commerce reports only good news for investment. Its post-COVID numbers are nearing the 2015–16 peak, which saw controversy around the world. There is no new controversy, suggesting investment is different now—likely stuck in offshore financial centers.  Chinese investment in the US was tiny in the first half of 2024. There are no equivalent figures for American investment in China and no sense of how much money supported Chinese technology or supply chains. Without this knowledge, the US cannot properly compete. 

Map & Chart of the Week

More Than 650,000 Russians have Emigrated Since the Start

of the Ukraine War. Did They Go?

The Bell, an independent Russian news outlet, conducted a study into the exodus of Russian’s following the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.  According to their work, the Bell estimates a minimum of 650,000 people have left Russia – a number which is growing and creating a significant political and economic headache for the Kremlin and the Russian Central Bank as tensions in the labor market grow.

But where did all those Russians go?  Below is a map and chart breaking it all down.