Recommended Weekend Reads
BRICS Expansion and What Its Members Want, The Growth of Institutionalized Fraud, Hezbollah’s Latin American Networks, and Does Putin Trust Anyone in Russia Anymore?
April 4 - 6, 2025
Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. With all that has happened and been written this week on Trump’s new tariff regime, we refrained from including anything on tariffs but we are assembling a special collection of research for next week. In the meantime, we hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend. And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.
Geoconomics
BRICS Expansion and the Future of World Order: Perspectives from Member States, Partners, and Aspirants Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Among analysts, the significance of the BRICS expansion remains a matter of debate. On paper, “BRICS+” has the potential to become a major geopolitical and geoeconomic force. The bloc already boasts about 45 percent of the world’s population, generates more than 35 percent of its GDP (as measured in purchasing power parity, or PPP), and produces 30 percent of its oil. BRICS countries have also established an extensive and thickening latticework of intergovernmental cooperation. Many analysts, therefore, depict BRICS expansion as a watershed moment in the shift to a more egalitarian international system.
Demand for College Labor in the 21st Century Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Tracing the evolution of labor demand in the United States, this Economic Commentary reveals that the disproportionate rise in relative productivity of college-educated labor that shaped the latter half of the 20th century has plateaued since 2000. Our analysis suggests that technical change in the 21st century may no longer favor college graduates, in which case further growth in the employment share of college-educated workers would likely lower the premium that college-educated workers receive compared with non-college-educated workers.
Why extracting data from PDFs is still a nightmare for data experts Ars Technia
AI has one enormous challenge. For years, businesses, governments, and researchers have struggled with a persistent problem: How to extract usable data from Portable Document Format (PDF) files. These digital documents serve as containers for everything from scientific research to government records, but their rigid formats often trap the data inside, making it difficult for machines to read and analyze.
“Industrialized Fraud” Excerpt from Stripe’s Annual Letter
Stripe published their annual letter covering a host of trends the finance company is seeing transform. But there was one shocking observation – the explosive growth of institutionalized fraud: “Fraud is a bigger drag on the global economy than you might think: one report found that fraud cost 3% of a typical online business’s revenue. Fraudulent actors today operate on an industrial scale, with teams of engineers, managers, and data analysts. (We are yet to verify whether they have HR departments. If you know, please tell us so we can give them some peer feedback.) Fraudulent actors generally target times when fraud teams are offline—we see more fraud on Saturdays, Sundays, and Mondays—but we see subtler patterns, too, like the fraudsters’ own work schedules. Fraudsters are particular about their lunch breaks.”
The Psychology of Free: How a Price of Zero Influences Decision-making Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Why do we get so excited when we see the word “free”? In competitive markets, businesses use strategies to attract customers and increase sales. One effective and appealing tactic is offering something for free. Examples include “Buy one, get one free!” and “Free samples inside!” The power of “free” goes beyond just saving money; it involves psychological factors that influence our decisions without us realizing it. Free items, free shipping, and the psychological impact of “free” reveal much about social norms and human decision-making.
Americas
Hezbollah's Networks in Latin America: Potential Implications for U.S. Policy and Research Rand
Most people have no idea Hezbollah operates in Latin America. Academic literature and government reports almost universally indicate that Hezbollah's activities in the region pose potential threats to U.S. national security. However, there is a significant knowledge gap in existing assessments. In this paper, the author offers an initial exploration of Hezbollah's operational footprint in Latin America, focusing on illicit funding mechanisms, violent operations, and key operational hubs — particularly in the Tri-Border Area and Venezuela. The analysis situates these activities within the broader context of Iran's regional diplomatic, economic, and cultural activities, which partially facilitate conditions amenable to Hezbollah's operations.
Assessing Guatemala as a Nearshoring Destination Center for Strategic and International Studies
Guatemala’s geographic proximity to the United States and Mexico gives it an advantage when trying to lure North American businesses seeking to shorten and strengthen their supply chain routes. The country, which has the United States as its largest trading partner, has the potential to leverage the nearshoring movement and attract businesses seeking alternative hubs to Mexico, especially as the Guatemalan government continues to make efforts to enhance its competitiveness, promote investment opportunities, and work on reforms to support economic growth.
Inside the President’s Daily Brief War Room Podcast
Ever wonder what goes into the President’s Daily Brief (PDB)? It’s not your average morning news. Stephanie Sellers, a former PDB briefer, is currently the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Representative to the U.S. Army War College and the General Walter Bedell Smith Chair of National Intelligence Studies. She joins host Ron Granieri to share her experiences and describes the job as trying to keep up with “17 different soap operas at once.” This crucial intelligence update is delivered to the president and other senior government leaders, shaping their understanding of critical issues. Sellers, who previously worked on missile systems for the Navy, joined the CIA after 9/11 out of a desire to continue to serve her country and to use and grow her technical and leadership skills in new and exciting assignments. Her journey to becoming a PDB briefer was fueled by a desire for challenge and the opportunity to work at “the nexus of intelligence and policy.”
Russia, China, North Korea, the US, and the Ukraine War
On a spring morning, two months after Vladimir Putin’s invading armies marched into Ukraine, a convoy of unmarked cars slid up to a Kyiv street corner and collected two middle-aged men in civilian clothes. Leaving the city, the convoy — manned by British commandos, out of uniform but heavily armed — traveled 400 miles west to the Polish border. The crossing was seamless, on diplomatic passports. Farther on, they came to the Rzeszów-Jasionka Airport, where an idling C-130 cargo plane waited. The passengers were top Ukrainian generals. Their destination was Clay Kaserne, the headquarters of U.S. Army Europe and Africa in Wiesbaden, Germany. Their mission was to help forge what would become one of the most closely guarded secrets of the war in Ukraine.
Auditing the Auditors: Does Putin Trust Anyone Now? Carnegie Politika
A new type of Russian bureaucrat has emerged in recent years: those appointed by President Vladimir Putin to oversee certain agencies or sectors and keep an eye on the officials formally in charge—even those who ostensibly enjoy the Kremlin’s trust. These “auditors” can now be found everywhere: from the Russian delegation conducting negotiations with the United States to the Defense Ministry, the Emergencies Ministry, and the presidential administration. While these appointments help to reassure Putin that he remains in control, they also threaten to undermine the viability of Russia’s power vertical. It’s recently become clear, however, that the president does not trust even long-serving officials and has decided to create a new tier of bureaucracy to oversee them.
Can Trump Channel Nixon to Turn Russia Against China? Carnegie Politika
The Trump administration has been quite open about why exactly it wants to get into bed with Moscow: it believes closer ties will prize Russia away from China, which it sees as the real existential threat to the United States. A previous U.S. president—Richard Nixon—came up with a similar plan at the beginning of the 1970s. The only difference is that Nixon’s plan was supposed to work the other way around: improving relations with China to isolate the Soviet Union. Back then, the U.S. strategy worked—more or less. Donald Trump’s modern-day imitation of Nixon, however, is unlikely to succeed.
China and Russia’s strategic relationship amid a shifting geopolitical landscape Brookings Institution Commentary
The geopolitical landscape is shifting at a breakneck pace, raising urgent questions about how the China-Russia strategic relationship—both with each other and with the United States—might evolve, and what this means for the war in Ukraine and the broader global order. In the conversation that follows, four experts—Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, Angela Stent, Tara Varma, and Ali Wyne—join Patricia Kim to unpack these critical developments. They explore topics ranging from the consequences of a potential U.S.-Russia reset or a “reverse Nixon” strategy, to China’s evolving strategic calculus, the future of the China-Russia-North Korea-Iran “axis,” and Europe’s uncertain path forward. Join us as we delve into what’s at stake for Washington, Beijing, and the world.
Russia-China-North Korea Relations: Obstacles to a Trilateral Axis Foreign Policy Research Institute
This paper begins by examining the history of Russia-China-North Korea interactions, highlighting Sino-Russian differences in emphasis regarding North Korea prior to the full-scale war in Ukraine. To assess whether a trilateral axis formed after 2022, the paper examines evidence of institutionalized cooperation, coordination of Chinese and North Korean military aid to Russia for Ukraine, and Russian and Chinese expert perspectives. The paper then addresses the obstacles to the formation of a trilateral axis. Although authoritarian states share an overriding interest in regime security and political survival, this does not necessarily mean that we should expect solidarity among similarly disposed regimes or believe that they would inevitably form an anti-Western axis. Considerable research has been done on the reasons why authoritarian states choose to support one another, but it is important to understand what factors might limit their cooperation. This paper examines how the historical experience of trilateralism, reputational concerns, foreign policy considerations, and domestic factors make a new China-Russia-North Korea axis unlikely.