Global Week Ahead

Written By Francis Kelly

September 24 - October 1, 2023

The markets have a lot to watch in the political sphere this coming week, foremost being the looming U.S. federal government shutdown unless House Republicans can a figure out to cobble together a temporary funding extension.  At this point, the chances of successfully achieving a short-term deal look remote.  Tied up in all this is the question of whether House Republicans will also block new spending requests from the White House for Ukrainian military aid.  We are seeing resistance to more funding at an all-time high among a number of Republicans.  We will be offering regular updates as midnight, September 30th approaches as well as on what will happen with the Ukrainian funding bill.

Also, this week, the second Republican presidential debate will be held at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library.  Former President Donald Trump has again refused to participate.

On the geopolitical radar screen this week, we will be watching closely as President Biden hosts the Pacific Islands Forum in Washington.  The Forum, comprised of 18 countries, is an opportunity for the U.S. to further counter China’s efforts to establish stronger security ties with many of the nations.   

Also, this week, the EU and China hold their 10th annual Economic and Trade Summit in Beijing.  The meetings come at a time of considerable tension between the EU and China over the EU’s efforts to restrict technology exports to China as well as the EU’s heightened criticism of human rights in China.  The Summit will likely give markets some guidance on how these trade tensions are likely to unfold further – or not – in the coming quarter.

On the global economic calendar this week, markets will be focused on inflation data coming out of a number of countries. In Asia, China’s and Japan’s PMIs are due to be released while the U.S. will be releasing PCE inflation data and personal income and spending figures.  In Europe, Germany will be releasing their CPIs on Thursday and a closely watched consumer confidence report on Wednesday. 

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week.

Sunday, September 24, 2023

Global

  • Today begins Yom Kippur, the Jewish Day of Atonement.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin continues his travels to Djibouti, Kenya, and Angola through September 28.  The purpose of the meetings is to strengthen partnerships and enhance regional security in the African continent and come at a time when Russia and China are ramping up their own efforts in the region.

  • Ecuador's presidential candidates, Luisa Gonzalez, and Daniel Noboa, will officially begin their campaigns for the presidential runoff vote on October 15.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report (NSTR)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Taiwan Industrial Production (August), Retail Sales (August)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR 

 

Monday, September 25, 2023

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • The United States and the 18 nations of the Pacific Islands Forum will hold their second annual summit in Washington, D.C., until September 26.  The Forum is comprised of 18 member nations.  The U.S. will be using the event to build stronger ties with many of these countries to counter China’s growing influence in the region.

  • Guatemala's President-elect Bernardo Arevalo may resume the power transition process with current President Alejandro Giammattei.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari participates in a question-and-answer session hosted by the Wharton Central Banking Club in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

  • US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (August), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (September)

  • Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (September), Current Account (August), FDI (August), BCB Focus Market Readout

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda to meet business leaders in Osaka, western Japan, and hold a news conference.

  • Singapore CPI (August), Inflation (August)

  • Indonesia M2 Money Supply (August)

  • Malaysia Coincident Index (July), Leading Index (July)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB President Christine Lagarde will give an introductory statement at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

  • ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel will give a speech at the  Johann-Heinrich-von-Thünen-Lecture in Regensburg, Germany 

  • Germany Ifo Business Climate (September), Ifo Current Conditions & Expectations (September)

  • UK CBI Distributive Trades (September)

  • Poland Unemployment (August)

  • Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (August)

  • Spain PPI (August)

  • Hungary Gross Wages (July)

  • Bosnia & Herzegovina Inflation (August), PPI (August), Industrial Production (August)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Business Confidence (September), Capacity Utilization (September)

  • Israel Manufacturing PMI (August)

  • Lebanon Inflation (August)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR 

 

Tuesday, September 26, 2023

Global

  • NSTR

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • The U.S. Senate is going to attempt to move a continuing resolution to keep the federal government past September 30.  Meanwhile, the House of Representatives returns to work, seeking a way to advance their own continuing resolution as well as advancing four separate appropriations bills.  At this point, it is seen as doubtful the bills will advance as dissident Republican members continue to demand significant cuts to the federal budget.

  • President Biden travels to Detroit to show support for the United Auto Workers strike against Detroit automakers, a day before former President Donald Trump visits Detroit to speak to strikers.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives welcoming remarks on Post-Pandemic Challenges and Strategies for Addressing Rental Housing Affordability (via pre-recorded video) at the FedCommunities event "Keys to Opportunity in the Housing Market: Research on Strategies for Preserving and Expanding Rental Housing Affordability," Washington, D.C.

  • US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (July), CB Consumer Confidence (September), New Home Sales (August), Richmond Fed Manufacturing/Fed Services Indexes (September), Dallas Fed Services Index (September), Building Permits (August)

  • Canada Manufacturing Sales (August), Wholesale Sales (August)

  • Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes, IPCA mid-month CPI (September)

  • Colombia Business Confidence (August)

  • Argentina Economic Activity (July), Retail Sales (July)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Foreign ministry officials from China, South Korea, and Japan will hold their first high-level trilateral talks since December 2019.  The meeting will take place in Seoul, and the focus of the meeting will be to see if they are capable of arranging a trilateral summit among the country’s leaders. 

  • South Korea holds its first military parade in the country for nearly a decade.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Korea Consumer Confidence (September)

  • Reserve Bank of Australia 2023 Conference on Inflation

  • Singapore Industrial Production (August)

  • Hong Kong Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)

  • Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)

  • Malaysia PPI (August)

  • Philippines Budget Balance (August)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel Composite Economic Index (August)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Zambia’s Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane is expected to present the 2024 national budget to parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Zimbabwe Inflation (September)

  

Wednesday, September 27, 2023

Global

  • The BRICS member countries hold a parliamentary forum in South Africa.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • The 2nd Republican Presidential Debate takes place at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California.  Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former Vice President Mike Pence, Senator Tim Scott (R-SC), former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy have all qualified to participate.  Former President Donald Trump has refused to participate; instead intends to address striking auto workers and other union members in Detroit.

  • President Biden travels to San Francisco to attend a campaign fundraising reception.  He will also attend a meeting of his Council of Advisors on Science and Technology.

  • In Panama, the trial of 36 individuals, including ex-presidents Ricardo Martinelli and Juan Carlos Varela, begins.  They are accused of money laundering with Brazilian construction group Odebrecht.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US MBA Mortgage Index (September 22), Durable Goods Orders (August)

  • Brazil Bank Lending (August)

  • Mexico Balance of Trade (August)

  • Uruguay Unemployment (August)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar travels to Washington for meetings with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and other senior Biden Administration officials.

  • China's Golden Week will commence and last through October 8.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Industrial Profits (August)

  • Japan Coincident Index (July), Leading Economic Index (July)

  • Taiwan Consumer Confidence (September)

  • Australia Monthly CPI (August)

  • South Korea Business Confidence (September)

  • Thailand Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting (virtual)

  • ECB Board Member Andrea Enria will participate on a panel at Analysis Forum "Rischi e sfide per il settore bancario europeo" in Milan, Italy. 

  • EU Loans to Households (August),  Loans to Companies (August), M3 Money Supply (August)

  • Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (September)

  • France Unemployment (August), Consumer Confidence (September)

  • Greece Total Credit (August)

  • Ireland Retail Sales (August)

  • Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (September)

  • Bulgaria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Russia GDP (August), Unemployment (August), Real Wage Growth (July), Business Confidence (September), Corporate Profits (July), Industrial Production (August), Retail Sales (August)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Qatar Balance of Trade (August)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Thursday, September 28, 2023

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives closing remarks (via pre-recorded video) at the Minorities in Banking Forum hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

  • Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks on “The New Job Hierarchy” before the Money Marketeers of New York University.

  • US GDP (Q2), Initial Jobless Claims (September 23), Core PCE Prices (Q2), Retail Consumer Spending (Q2), Pending Home Sales (August), Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Indexes (September)

  • Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Austin Goolsbee will give a policy speech at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington (virtually).

  • Canada CFIB Business Barometer (September), Average Weekly Earnings (July)

  • Brazil IGP-M Inflation (September), PPI (August), Net Payrolls (August), Private Bank Lending (August), M3 Money Supply (August)

  • Mexico Central Bank Interest Rate Decision,  Unemployment (August)

  • Costa Rica GDP (Q2)

  • Argentina Consumer Confidence (September), Current Account (Q2)

  • Paraguay Current Account (Q2)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Australia Retail Sales (August)

  • New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (September)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council meets in Brussels to discuss reform of EU asylum legislation.

  • German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and European Council President Charles Michel will take part in the Berlin Global Dialogue Forum through September 29.

  • Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev will make an official visit to Germany.

  • In the UK, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to address the Westminster Correspondents’ Dinner.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone Economic Sentiment (September), Selling Price Expectations (September), Industrial Sentiment (September), Services Sentiment (September), Consumer Confidence (September), Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)

  • Bank of England Executive Director for Markets Andrew Hauser at Market News International Connect Event ‘A journey of 1000 miles begins with a single step: filling gaps in the central bank liquidity toolkit’ in London.

  • Germany Inflation (September)

  • UK Car Production (August)

  • Spain Inflation (September), Retail Sales (September), Business Confidence (September), Consumer Confidence (September)

  • Italy Business Confidence (September), PPI (September)

  • Ireland Inflation (September)

  • Hungary PPI (August)

  • Serbia Business Confidence (September), Consumer Confidence (September)

  • Slovenia Retail Sales (August)

  • Montenegro Balance of Trade (August), Tourist Arrivals (August)

  • Bosnia and Herzegovina Retail Sales (August)

  

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Economic Confidence Index (September)

  • Saudi Arabia Private Bank Lending (August), M3 Money Supply (August)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa PPI (August)

  • Botswana GDP (Q2) 

 

Friday, September 29, 2023

Global

  • NSTR

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams delivers remarks and participates in a moderated discussion covering the economic outlook and monetary policy before a Long Island Association (LIA) Regional Economic Briefing, in Garden City, New York.  Later in the day, he moderates a discussion before the 2023 Environmental Economics and Policy Conference: “Measuring and Adapting to Climate Risk,” hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

  • Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic participates in the moderated conversation, “Economic Outlook for 2024: Inflation, Rising Interest Rates, Labor Market, and Uncertainties,” before the Leadership Atlanta alumni roundtable, “Where Are We Going? Riding the Financial Rollercoaster: A Forward Look Beyond 2024”.

  • Nicolas Vincent, External Non-executive Deputy Governor of Bank of Canada at the Chambre de commerce du Montréal métropolitain.

  • US Core PCE Price Index (August), Personal Income & Spending (August), Retail Inventories (August), Wholesale Inventories (August), Goods Trade Balance (August), Chicago PMI (September), Michigan Consumer Sentiment/5Year Inflation Expectations/Current Conditions/Inflation Expectations Reports (September), Quarterly Grain Stocks (Corn/Soy/Wheat – September)

  • Canada GDP (July), Budget Balance (July)

  • Brazil Nominal Budget Balance (August), Gross Debt to GDP (August), Unemployment (August)

  • Mexico Fiscal Balance (August)

  • Chile Copper Production (August), Industrial Production (August), Manufacturing Production (August), Retail Sales (August), Unemployment (August)

  • Colombia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Cement Production (August), Unemployment (August)

  • El Salvador Current Account (Q2)

  • Paraguay Current Account (Q4)

  • Uruguay Current Account (Q4), GDP (Q2)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Current Account (Q2)

  • India Current Account (Q2), External Debt (Q2), Government Budget Value (August), Infrastructure Output (August), FX Reserves (September 22)

  • Japan Unemployment (August), CPI (September), Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (August), Consumer Confidence (September), Housing Starts (August), Construction Orders (August)

  • New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (September)

  • Philippines PPI (August)

  • Hong Kong Retail Sales (August)

  • Australia Housing Credit (August), Private Credit (August)

  • Singapore Bank Lending (August), PPI (August), Import/Export Prices (August)

  • Vietnam Balance of Trade (September), GDP (Q3), Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September), Tourist Arrivals (September), Inflation (September), FDI (September)

  • Thailand Current Account (August), Private Consumption (August), Retail Sales (July)

  • Pakistan Consumer Confidence (August & September)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB Board President Christine Lagarde gives opening remarks at the joint IEA-ECB-EIB conference on "Ensuring an orderly energy transition: Europe’s competitiveness and financial stability in a period of global energy transformation" in Paris, France. 

  • Eurozone Inflation (September), CPI (September)

  • Germany Retail Sales (August), Import Prices (August), Unemployment (September)

  • UK GDP (Q2), Current Account (Q2), Business Investment (Q2), BoE Consumer Credit (August), Mortgage Lending (August), Nationwide Housing Prices (September)

  • France Inflation (September), Household Consumption (August), PPI (August)

  • Spain Current Account (September)

  • Italy Inflation (September), CPI (September), Industrial Sales (July)

  • Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (September)

  • Poland inflation (September)

  • Greece PPI (August), Retail Sales (July)

  • Hungary Unemployment (August), Inflation (September), Industrial Production (August), Retail Sales (August), Inflation (September)

  • Bulgaria PPI (August), Business Confidence (September), Tourist Arrivals (August)

  • Slovenia CPI (September), Inflation (September)

  • Serbia Retail Sales ( August), Industrial Production (August), Balance of Trade (August)

  • Ukraine Current Account (August)

  • Russia M2 Money Supply

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)

  • Egypt M2 Money Supply (August)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Swaziland (also known as Eswatini) holds legislative elections.

  • Zambia’s Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane is expected to present the 2024 national budget to parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Private Sector Credit (August), M3 Money Supply (August), Balance of Trade (August)

  • Uganda Inflation (September)

  • Nigeria FX Reserves (September)

  • Kenya Inflation (September)

  • Nigeria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, FX Reserves (August)

 

Saturday, September 30, 2023

Global

  • NSTR

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is the end of the fiscal year and the deadline for the U.S. Congress to come up with a temporary funding extension (a Continuing Resolution) or face a federal government shutdown.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • The Maldives will hold its second round of presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China NBS Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing & General PMIs (September)

  • Bank of Japan to release summary of opinions from board members at its Sept. 21-22 policy meeting.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Slovakia holds legislative elections.

  • Pope Francis is expected to name as many as 21 new Cardinals.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is Botswana Day, a national holiday celebrating the country’s independence.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR 

Sunday, October 1, 2023

Global

  • NSTR

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Argentina holds a presidential debate.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Indonesia’s first high-speed rail service – and the first high-speed rail operation in Southeast Asia – begins operations. Built jointly by Indonesia and China as part of China’s Belt & Road Initiative, it will connect Jakarta with West Java’s provincial capital Bandung.   It will be a 28-minute journey.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Caixin Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (September)

  • South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • In the UK, the Conservative Party conference kicks off in Manchester. Foreign Secretary James Cleverly and Defense Secretary Grant Shapps are on the main stage.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

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Francis Kelly
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