The Week Ahead: July 24-31, 2022

Written By Francis Kelly

This week, the markets are holding their collective breath as the Federal Reserve meets to decide the size of the next rate hike – will it be 75 basis points? Could it be 100? The decision comes as GDP figures are released in the US and across the EU which are likely to tell us if we are actually in recession or about to enter one.

On the geopolitical front, Russia’s Foreign Minister Lavrov barnstorms across Africa and Asia seeking support and to weaken growing global sanctions on Russia. Simultaneously, the EU’s energy ministers will hold an extraordinary meeting to set energy consumption caps in the face of likely energy shortages this coming winter. And in Washington, the US Senate prepares to vote on a landmark competitiveness bill that could super-charge semiconductor manufacturing and research and development efforts across the US. 

Here is what we are watching in the coming week:

Sunday, 24 July 2022:

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

  • China to use Long March 5B rocket to launch the second module of their space station.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

  • The turbine needed for maintenance for Nord Stream 1 pipeline is expected to arrive in Russia from Canada.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Monday, 25 July 2022:

Global

  • World Trade Organization’s General Council to meet.

  • The UN Security Council meets to discuss the mission in Libya.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • US President Biden expected to hold a video call with Chinese President Xi Jinping (to be confirmed).

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (June), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (July)

  • Brazil central bank focus market readout, Current Account (April, May, June), FDI (March-May), consumer confidence (July)

  • Mexico economic activity (May)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

  • Indonesia President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo visits Beijing for bilateral meetings with Chinese President Xi and Premier Li Keqiang.  Indonesia is chairing the upcoming (November) G-20 Leaders’ Summit in Bali.  The meeting is expected to focus on the agenda including climate, global inflation, and global security issues.

  • Newly elected Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. to give first state of the nation address.

  • ASEAN Economic Ministers to meet (by video)

  • Taiwan’s Army will hold the Han Kuang real artillery exercise – the nation’s largest annual war game.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Thailand export figures (June)

  • Singapore CPI (June)

  • Taiwan industrial production (June)

  • Hong Kong exports/imports/trade balance (June) 

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

  • French President Emmanuel Macron is to visit Cameroon, Benin, and Guinea-Bissau to discuss food security issues – especially with regard to Russia’s growing relations with Cameroon.

  • Uzbekistan to host a two-day conference on Afghanistan.  Approximately 20 countries will participate.

  • UK’s Conservative Party Leadership candidates Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss will debate on national television (BBC).

  • UK’s Unite union will begin votes on whether to strike at the Liverpool container port, the largest in the nation.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Germany Ifo Business Confidence/Current Conditions/Expectations reports (July)

  • UK CBI Industrial Trends Report (July), CBI Business Optimism Index (Q3)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

  • Tunisia to vote on a constitutional referendum changing the country from a parliamentary system to a presidential system.

  • Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to begin a week-long visit to Venezuela, Argentina, and Mexico.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia reports balance of trade (May)

  • Turkey Business Confidence Report (July)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • See above regarding French President Macron’s visit to Cameroon, Benin, and Guinea-Bissau. Otherwise, nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Ghana interest rate decision and presentation of the mid-term budget.

 

Tuesday, 26 July 2022:

Global

  • The UN Security Council holds an open debate on the Middle East.

  • Asalha Puja, commemorating Buddha’s first sermon in the Deer Park in Benares, is celebrated by Buddhists around the world.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • The US Senate is expected to begin voting on legislation boosting the American semiconductor industry, the National Science Foundation, and other R&D programs.  Estimated at more than $60 billion dollars, the CHIPs Act is aimed at helping the US better compete with China.

  • Cuba celebrates Revolution Day, marking the day Fidel Castro began the armed revolution.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Redbook (July), S&P/Case-Schiller Home Prices (May), House Price Index (May), New Home Sales (June), Consumer Confidence (July), Richmond Fed Manufacturing and Services Indexes (July),

  • Brazil IPCA mid-month CIP (July)

  • Canada wholesale sales (June)

  • Argentina retail sales (May)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China industrial profits (June), FDI (June)

  • The Bank of Japan releases the minutes of its Policy Board meeting.

  • South Korea GDP (Q2)

  • Singapore industrial production (June)

  • Thailand value-added production (June)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

  • EU energy ministers to hold an extraordinary energy council meeting to vote on a proposal to bind natural gas consumption cuts by 15 percent in case of an energy supply emergency this fall and winter.

  • Scotland’s GMB union votes on whether to strike later this summer over pay.

  • The Lambeth Conference, the once every decade meeting of Anglican bishops, begins in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Spain PPI’s (June)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

  • Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman visits Greece to establish new trade ties.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Kenyan Presidential debate held in Nairobi.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Seychelles interest rate decision

  • South Africa non-farm payrolls, South African Reserve Bank quarterly bulletin for Q1

  • Lesotho interest rate decision

 

Wednesday, 27 July 2022:

Global

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • The US Federal Reserve Board begins two days of meetings to consider another possible 75 basis point hike; US MBA mortgage figures (July), durable goods orders (June), retail inventories (June), goods trade balance (June)

  • Mexico balance of trade (June)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

  • Indonesian President Joko Widodo to arrive in Tokyo, Japan to discuss the upcoming G-20 meeting with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

  • South Korea celebrating the anniversary of the armistice of the Korean War.  North Korea celebrates this date, too, but they claim victory.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan Coincident Index (May), Leading Economic Index (May)

  • Australia CPIs (Q2)

  • South Korea Business Confidence (July)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

  • UK’s Aslef union strike ballot closes for train drivers.  Separately, rail workers of the RMT union plan to walk out on strike.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Germany GfK Consumer Confident (August)

  • France Consumer Confidence (July), unemployment figures (June)

  • Eurozone Loans to Households (June)

  • Italy Consumer Confidence (July)

  • Russia's GDP (June),  unemployment rate (June),  real wage growth (May), retail sales (June), industrial production (June), Business Confidence (July)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Kenya interest rate decision

 

Thursday, 28 July 2022:

Global

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US GDP (Q2), initial jobless claims (July), consumer spending (Q2),

  • US Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) meets to discuss findings of the Hedge Fund Working Group, an update from the Council’s climate-related Financial Risk Committee; an update on the report on Responsible Development of Digital Assets; the Office of Financial Research’s work on non-centrally cleared bilateral repo data collection.

  • Argentina consumer confidence (July)

  • Canada CFIB Business Barometer (July)

  • Mexico unemployment figures (June)

  • Brazil PPIs (June)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

  • Indonesian President Joko Widodo arrives in Seoul, South Korea for talks with South Korean President Yoom Seok Yeol about the upcoming G-20 meeting.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan CPIs, industrial production, labor force surveys

  • Australia retail sales (June), international trade prices (Q2)

  • New Zealand ANZ Business Survey (July)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

  • The two final candidates for the UK’s Tory Party leadership – Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss - face party members in Leeds in the first of a series of party campaign meetings around the country.

  • Russia to hold preliminary court hearing to begin dissolving Israeli-backed Jewish Agency inside Russia.

  • Separately, Russia begins legal proceedings against WhatsApp and Snapchat for refusing to localize data of Russians.

  • The 22nd Commonwealth Games begin in Birmingham, England.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Germany inflation rate figures (July)

  • France PPIs (June)

  • Spain retail sales (June), unemployment (Q2), Business Confidence (July)

  • Italy industrial sales (May)

  • Eurozone economic sentiment (July), consumer confidence (July), consumer inflation expectations (July)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey MPC meeting summary; inflation report

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Zambia inflation data (July), trade balance (June)

  • South Africa PPIs (June)

  • Kenya announces interest rate decision

 

Friday, 29 July 2022:

Global

  • Islamic New Year (Al-Hijra) 1444 begins.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US consumer spending figures (June), Chicago PMI (July) Michigan Consumer Sentiment/Consumer Expectations/Inflation Expectations Reports(July)

  • Canada GDP (May and June)

  • Mexico GDP (Q2), fiscal balance (June)

  • Brazil's unemployment rate (June) 

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

  • Australia set to double foreign investment fees and penalties for purchasing farms, properties, and businesses.

  • Japan and the United States hold “2+2 talks” between foreign and commerce ministers.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan consumer confidence index (August), new housing starts (July), Bank of Japan summary of opinions, retail sales (June)

  • India FX reserves (July)

  • South Korea's industrial production (Q2)

  • Taiwan GDP (Q2)

  • Sri Lanka CPI (July)

  • Australia PPIs (Q2), private sector credit

  • New Zealand ANZ Consumer Confidence (July)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

  • The UK’s Communications Workers Union is set to go on a 24-hour strike.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • France GDP (Q2), inflation figures (July)

  • Germany's GDP (Q2), import prices (June), unemployment rate (June)

  • Spain GDP figures (Q2), inflation rate (July), current account (May)

  • Italy GDP (Q2), inflation rate (July), PPis (June)

  • UK mortgage lending (June), Bank of England Consumer Credit (June)

  • Eurozone GPD figures (Q2)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey's balance of trade (June)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa's money supply, trade figures, and budget balance data (all June)

  • Kenya inflation figures (July)

  • Uganda inflation figures (July)

  • Namibia money supply data (June)

  • Democratic Republic of Congo S&P Global rating assessment due.

 

Saturday, 30 July 2022:

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China BBS Manufacturing (July), NBS General PMI (July)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

  • UK Aslef train drivers at eight rail companies will strike over pay disputes.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

  

Sunday, 31 July 2022:

 Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

  • The 55tth ASEAN Foreign Ministers meeting in Phnom Penh, Cambodia.  Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China NBS PMI Composite (July)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

  • Russia celebrates Navy Fleet Day.  President Putin is expected to attend a parade in St. Petersburg.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

  • Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Senegal to hold parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

 

Francis Kelly
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