The Global Week Ahead

Will the Trump Tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and Canada Begin This Week?  Rubio Goes to Latin America; the Lunar New Year Celebration Begins in Asia, and A Big Week for Central Banks

January 26 - February 2, 2025

It will be a very busy week ahead, both politically and economically.  President Trump has threatened to put 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10 percent tariffs on China unless there is progress on illegal immigration and fentanyl trafficking (he placed 25 percent tariffs and a travel ban on Colombia Sunday for refusing to take back deported Colombians).   The question now is, will there be some progress, or are the tariffs a fait acompli?

Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio begins a series of meetings in Latin America, traveling to Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, and the Dominican Republic.  While Rubio is expected to focus on migration issues, he will also likely discuss the situation in Venezuela and trade and security issues.  It is Rubio’s first trip as Secretary of State, indicating that Latin America will be a significant focus of the new Trump Administration.

In Asia, we note Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri is traveling to Beijing for two days of meetings.  This is the second high-level set of meetings between India and China in the last two months, all to improve tense relations between the two countries.   The meetings take place as most of the major markets in Asia get ready to celebrate the Lunar New Year and China celebrates its annual eight-day Spring Festival – which serves as a major consumer spending event in China and will be indicative of how strong the Chinese economy is as the country continues to struggle with its massive real estate crisis.

In Europe, EU Foreign Ministers meet this week to discuss how to move forward on renewing sanctions on Russia.  Hungary is trying to block the renewal of sanctions, causing significant tensions.  The ministers are also expected to discuss EU-US relations and how best to work with the new Trump Administration.

In the United States, three of President Trump’s arguably most controversial nominees will get their Senate confirmation hearings this week.  FBI Director-designate Kash Patel, Director of National Intelligence nominee Tulsi Gabbard, and Health and Human Service Secretary nominee Robert Kennedy will each appear before the respective US Senate committees.

Turning the Middle East, the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah expires today.  What happens next is unclear.  The expiration comes as the fragile ceasefire with Hamas continues to hold and as Israeli and US hostages are slowly being released.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, it’s a big week for central banks as the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada, and the Bank of Brazil all meet to decide interest rates.

Beyond the central bank action and breaking down the week by region, the US will see Q4 GDP numbers, December PCE inflation print on Thursday, and Q4 employment cost index figures on Friday.   These come after the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence report and durable goods orders come out on Tuesday.

In Europe, January CPI flash numbers are out Friday for Germany and France, and the Eurozone CPI’s following Monday. 

In Asia, markets are closed in most major markets for the Lunar New Year, and in Australia, markets are closed for the Australia Day holiday.  But China – celebrating an eight-day Spring Festival holiday – will release January PMIs, and Japan will release its CPI print, PMIs, and industrial production figures.   

Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, January 26, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump announces 25 percent tariffs on Colombia for refusing to accept U.S. plans carrying deported Colombian nationals.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India celebrates Republic Day, a national holiday celebrating the country’s constitution coming into force in 1950.  There will be a large military parade through New Delhi.

·       Today is Australia Day, a national holiday, commemorating the landing of The First Fleet in 1788 led by Captain Arthur Phillip, who later became the British colony’s first governor. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Belarus holds presidential elections.

· In Berlin, Germany's Greens hold a party congress ahead of the election.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Israeli-Hezbollah ceasefire expires.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, January 27, 2025

Global

·       Today is International Holocaust Remembrance Day.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an emergency meeting and briefing on ICC Sudan, which will include the International Criminal Court report on Darfur.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In Tapachula, Mexico, a new migrant caravan set to depart southern Mexico despite Trump immigration crackdown.

·       Venezuela's opposition leader Gonzalez Urrutia meets with Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa.

·       Canada’s legislature returns to session in Ottawa.

Economic Reports/Events

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (January)/ Bank Lending (December)/ Federal Tax Revenues (December)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (December)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (December)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (December)/ New Home Sales (December)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (January)/ Building Permits Final (December)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (December)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indian Foreign Minister Vikram Misri travels to Beijing for two days of meetings with Chinese Vice Minister Sun Weidong.  It is the second high-level meeting between India and China in the last two months, all in an effort to de-escalate tensions between the two countries.

·       Australia Day is observed.  Financial markets are closed.

·       Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim hosts Indonesian President Prabowo in Putrajaya, Malaysia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Industrial Profits (YTD) (December)/ NBS General PMI (January)

·       Japan Coincident Index Final (November)/ Leading Economic Index Final (November)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Auschwitz-Birkenau State Museum holds an 80th anniversary commemoration of the liberation of Auschwitz with a ceremony held in a special tent built over the gate to the former Auschwitz-Birkenau camp. Guests include King Charles.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council will meet in Brussels.  Foreign Ministers will discuss the War in Ukraine and extend sanctions on Russia.  They will also discuss the state of EU-US relations, the situation in the Middle East (focusing on Syria and Gaza), and the situation in Moldova and Georgia.

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers will exchange views on the proposed regulation on cross-border enforcement of the EU rules on unfair trading practices in the agricultural and food supply chain, as well as on the proposed regulation amending the common market organization as regards the strengthening of the position of farmers in the food supply chain.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte meets Portuguese Prime Minister Luis Montenegro in Lisbon, Portugal. He then travels to Madrid, Spain to meet with Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Luc Frieden, the Prime Minister of Luxembourg.

·       The Arctic Frontiers Annual Conference begins in Tromso, Norway.

·       Paris Fashion Week begins. Will Derek Zoolander be there this year?

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a pre-recorded Lámfalussy Lecture at the Lámfalussy Lectures Conference organized by the Hungarian Central Bank.  Later, she will give welcome remarkets at a commemorative event on the occasion of International Holocaust Remembrance Day.

·       Turkey Business Confidence (January)/ Capacity Utilization (January)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate/ Current Conditions/ Expectations (January)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (January)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

·       France Unemployment Benefit Claims (December)/ Jobseekers Total (December)

·       Greece Total Credit (December)

·       Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visits Saudi Arabia for bilateral talks. She then travels on to Bahrain for talks.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Ghana President Dramani Mahama visits Angola for bilateral talks.

·       The Africa Energy Summit begins in Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana Interest Rate Decision

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (December)

Tuesday, January 28, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Argentine rail workers will launch a nationwide six-hour strike after negotiations with rail operator Ferrocarriles Argentinos broke down.

·       Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists announces the 2025 Doomsday Clock time.  Last year, the clock was reset at 90 seconds to midnight, the closest to midnight it has been in its nearly 80 years of existence.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA Durable Goods Orders (December)/ Redbook (January/25)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (November)/ House Price Index (November)/ CB Consumer Confidence (January)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing/ Shipments/ Services Revenues Index (January)/ Dallas Fed Services/ Revenues Index (January)/ Money Supply (December)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/24)

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In China, the Spring Festival, a national holiday, begins and runs until February 4th.  The holiday will be watched by markets to gauge the strength of Chinese consumers’ willingness to spend despite the ongoing economic challenges.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Malaysia PPI (December)

·       Singapore Imports/ Export Prices (December)/ PPI (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·        The European Commission unveils a roadmap for restoring EU competitiveness.

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss the Polish presidency’s (Poland) priorities for the next six months.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will meet with the Romanian Minister of Foreign Affairs Emil Horatiu Hurezeanu at NATO Headquarters in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde attends and offers an exchange of views with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at the Governing Council event in Brussels.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a virtual panel discussion at the conference "T2, T1, T0: Go! The future of financial markets and their infrastructures: What’s ahead?" organized by Banque de France in Paris.

·       Bank of England Executive Director Rebecca Jackson gives a speech at UK Finance entitled “Prime Brokerage” in London.

·       France Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Spain Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (December)

·       Ireland GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (January)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel’s ban on operations by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian refugees goes into effect.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (December)/ Private Bank Lending (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (November)

·       Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (December)

Wednesday, January 29, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick will have his confirmation hearing in the US Senate.

·       Canada’s Commissioner Marie-Josée Hogue to release final report of the Public Inquiry into Foreign Interference.

· Former US Senator Robert Menendez is sentenced following his conviction for bribery and corruption charges.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The US Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee’s Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference.

·       The Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision/ Monetary Policy Report/ Press Conference

·       The Central Bank of Brazil Interest Rate Decision

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (December)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/24)/ MBA Purchase Index (January/24)/ Goods Trade Balance (December)/ Wholesale Inventories (December)/ EIA Crude Oil/ Gasoline/ Heating Oil/ Refinery Crude Runs Stocks Change (January/24)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the Lunar New Year, celebrated across many countries in South-East Asia. Financial markets are closed in China, Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam.  

·       Azerbaijan holds municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of Japan publishes its Policy Meeting Minutes/ Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Australia Inflation Rate Q4/ Monthly CPI Indicator (December)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q4/ CPI Q4/ RBA Weighted Median CPI Q4

·       Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

·       Thailand New Car Sales (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The embezzlement trial of the former Russian Deputy Defence Minister Timur Ivanov begins in Moscow.

·       British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves gives a speech on economic growth in London.

·       German Economy Minister Robert Habeck presents the national 2025 economic report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank Governing Council monetary policy meeting begins in Frankfurt.

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence FEB

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Flash Q4

·       Euro Area Loans to Households (December)/ M3 Money Supply (December)

·       Italy Business Confidence (January)/ Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (January)

·       Russia PPI (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (December)

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (November)/ M1 Money Supply (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (January)

Thursday, January 30, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Robert Kennedy, President Trump’s nominee to be Secretary of Health and Human Services, has his confirmation hearing before the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pension Committee.

·       Director of National Intelligence nominee Tulsi Gabbard will have her confirmation hearing in the Senate.

·       FBI Director nominee Kash Patel will have his Senate confirmation hearing.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (January)/ Net Payrolls (December)

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (January)/ Average Weekly Earnings (November)

·       Mexico GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Fiscal Balance (December)

·       USA GDP Growth Rate/ Price Index Q4/ Initial Jobless Claims (January/25)/ GDP Sales Q4/ PCE Prices Q4/ Real Consumer Spending Q4/ Pending Home Sales (December)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (January/24)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/30)/ Fed Balance Sheet (January/29)

·       Colombia Imports/ Balance of Trade (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Asian Development Bank Institute holds a two-day online conference entitled “From Crisis to Resilience, Shaping the Future of Banking in Asia and the Pacific.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ ANZ Business Confidence (January)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (January/25)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (January/25)/ BoJ Himino Speech

·       Australia RBA Bulletin/ Import Prices Q4/ Export Prices Q4/ RBA Jones Speech/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (January)

·       Philippines Full Year GDP Growth 2025/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting in Brussels of EU Justice and Home Affairs Ministers through January 31.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank Governing Council meets on interest rates.  A press conference follows the announcement.

·       Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey appears before the Treasury committee, answering questions on the latest Financial Stability Report.

·       Great Britain Car Production (December)/ BoE Consumer Credit (December)/ Mortgage Approvals (December)/ Mortgage Lending (December)/ M4 Money Supply (December)/ Net Lending to Individuals (December)

·       Netherlands Business Confidence (January)

·       France GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Household Consumption (December)

·       Germany Import Prices (December)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Romania Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (December)/ KOF Leading Indicators (January)

·       Turkey Economic Confidence Index (January)/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/24)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Final (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (January)/ Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (January)/ Business Confidence (January)

·       Italy GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Industrial Sales (November)

·       Poland Full Year GDP Growth 2025

·       Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Consumer Confidence (January)/ Economic Sentiment (January)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (January)/ Industrial Sentiment (January)/ Selling Price Expectations (January)/ Services Sentiment (January)/ Deposit Facility Rate

·       Greece PPI (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q4/ M3 Money Supply (December)/ Private Bank Lending (December)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger officially leave regional group Economic Community of West Africa States (ECOWAS).  All three nations are leaving following coups in their respective countries.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (December)/ Private Sector Credit (December)/ PPI (December)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate/ Budget Balance (December)

Friday, January 31, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the situation in Sudan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio begins a tour of Latin America.  He will travel to Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, and the Dominican Republic.  There is no official agenda, but illegal migration will likely be the top issue discussed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (December)/ Nominal Budget Balance (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Chile Copper Production (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Manufacturing Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Canada GDP (November)/ Budget Balance (November)

·       USA Personal Income & Spending (December)/ Employment Cost Index Q4/ Fed Bowman Speech/ PCE Price Index (December)/ Chicago PMI (January)/ Employment Cost - Benefits & Wages Q4/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (January/31)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (December)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (December)

·       Costa Rica Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (December)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Mitsubishi Motors is expected to announce whether or not to join a planned merger with Nissan and Honda.

·       Today is Nauru Independence Day, a national holiday celebrating when the Republic declared its independence from Australia in 1968.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (December)/ Jobs/Applications ratio (December)/ Tokyo CPI (January)/ Retail Sales (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Housing Starts (December)/ Construction Orders (December)

·       Australia PPI Q4/ Housing Credit (December)/ Private Sector Credit (December)

·       Philippines PPI (December)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (December)/ Business Confidence Q4

·       Thailand Industrial Production (December)/ Current Account (December)/ Private Consumption & Investment (December)/ Business Confidence (January)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       Kazakhstan Current Account Q4

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (December)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (January)/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       India Government Budget Value (December)/ Bank Loan Growth (January/17)/ Deposit Growth (January/17)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/24)/ Infrastructure Output (December)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (December)/ Consumer Confidence (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Wholesale Prices (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Unless extended by the EU, sanctions on Russia are due to expire today.

·       Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visits Serbia for the inter-governmental summit.

·       Today, on the 5th anniversary of the UK leaving the EU, the Brexit safety and security declarations for EU imports come into force.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Retail Sales (December)/ Unemployment Change Rate/ Persons Rate (January)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (January)/ Bavaria CPI (January)/ Brandenburg CPI (January)/ Hesse CPI (January)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (January)/ Saxony CPI (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (December)/ Tourism Revenues Q4/ Tourist Arrivals (December)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (January)

·       Hungary PPI (December)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (December)

·       France Inflation Rate (January)/ PPI (December)/ New Car Registrations (January)

·       Spain Retail Sales (December)/ Current Account (November)/ New Car Sales (January)

·       Euro Area ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (December)

·       Greece Retail Sales (November)

·       Italy PPI (December)/ New Car Registrations (January)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (January)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (December)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Ukraine Current Account (December)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the deadline for France to remove all military forces from Chad.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Balance of Trade (December)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (January)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Saturday, February 1, 2025

Global

·       China assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of February.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Democratic National Committee elects a new chair.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India’s Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman gives the annual budget speech to parliament for the financial year, which begins in April.  The budget is expected to significantly increase government spending on infrastructure projects and the agricultural sector

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Togo holds senatorial elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 2, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump may impose 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico (to be confirmed).

·       President Trump may impose 10 percent tariffs on China (to be confirmed).

·       Today is Groundhog Day – Is Spring around the corner or will we have six more weeks of winter?

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.