Talking Geopolitics, Elections, and the Growing Intense Demands on the Electrical Grid Sector

The Corn Belt Power Cooperative Annual Meeting

I was thrilled and honored to speak at the Corn Belt Annual Meeting in Fort Dodge, Iowa, yesterday (April 3, 2024). It was a trip to God’s country - the beauty and grandeur of the Hawkeye State all around me as I was given the privilege to speak to leaders of the energy sector of Iowa on what is going on in the world today and how it directly is impacting them - U.S. Election outlook, Congressional outlook, the future of China, India, Russia, and the rest of the world.

There is something cathartic about engaging and talking with hard-working, clear-eyed folks like those in attendance at the Corn Belt Power meeting. The questions are deeply thoughtful, penetrating, and challenging. Add to this that the attendees are just wonderful folks—Iowa Nice, as they say! All around, it was a superb event!

You can see my presentation below.

A Superb Panel in Palm Beach

Pitcairn’s Outstanding Lunch Discussion Global Events and Investing

I was recently delighted to join my friends at Pitcairn for a client luncheon and superb panel discussion In Palm Beach, Florida.

Our discussion was wide-ranging, wonderfully challenging, and thought-provoking. Held in the elegant Brazil Court Hotel, I was thrilled to sit with Chief Global Strategist Rick Pitcairn, Managing Director for Wealth Strategy Jen Proper, and Chief Investment Officer Nathan Sonneberg (who also masterfully moderated).

The upcoming battle over revising the 2017 tax bill is clearly going to be challenging for investors and corporations as Congress and the next Presidential Administration are going to be forced to grapple with the exploding national debt. All this comes in the face of intense pressure to bolster U.S. military spending and sustain and grow industrial policy, luring technology, pharma, and other critical industries back to the U.S. Massive contradictory pressures with enormous market implications.

Thank you, Jay and the entire Pitcairn team for having me!

Left to right: Pitcairn CIO Nathan Sonneberg, Chief Global Strategist Rick Pitcairn, Head of Wealth Strategy Jen Proper, and yours truly.

Our super-star host, Managing Director and Head of Pitcairn’s Florida Office, Jay Goetschius, who masterfully put this great event together.

The Global Week Ahead

March 31 - April 7, 2024

Happy belated-Easter! We hope everyone had a joyful and relaxing Easter weekend. Looking at the geopolitical outlook for the coming week, it should be relatively quiet.

We will watch as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi, and a Palestinian territory coordination office representative meet virtually with White House officials and discuss Gaza early next week. The meeting was scheduled for last week, but Netanyahu canceled it after the U.S. allowed the U.N. Security Council to pass a resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza. The purpose of the meeting is to discuss the situation in Rafah and if there is any way to push forward a deal for Israeli hostages in return for a ceasefire.

Also this week, NATO celebrates its 75th anniversary. There will be several celebratory events in Brussels this week, as well as important meetings of NATO foreign ministers to discuss further aid and assistance to Ukraine and the situation in Ukraine and the Red Sea.

Beijing will be a busy place this week as a number of foreign ministers and other dignitaries travel to China for meetings with President Xi Jinping and other senior Chinese officials. The list includes Indonesian Defense Minister and President-elect Prabowo Subianto (who is trying to balance a relationship with the U.S. and China), French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne (who is likely laying the groundwork for a visit by President X to France in May), and, most controversially, former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou. The former President, facing considerable criticism at home for the trip, is taking a delegation of young people for a ten-day visit that may include a meeting with President Xi.  

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, it is a relatively light reporting week. Markets will be looking at the U.S. jobs report while listening to a large number of Federal Reserve Board Governors and regional Fed Presidents speak—including Fed Chair Jay Powell speaking at Stanford University later this week.  

In Europe, Germany reports CPIs (as does the Eurozone), while the European Central Bank releases minutes of their March meeting. In Asia, Japan releases the Q1 Tankan Survey, while China releases official PMIs for March and the Caixin indicators.

Below is what else we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, March 31, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China NBS Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI (March)/ NBS General PMI (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Bulgaria and Romania partially join the Schengen area.

Economic Reports/Events –

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey holds municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 1, 2024

Global

·       Malta assumes the Chair of the UN Security Council for the month of April.

·       Today is April Fool’s Day.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In Costa Rica, protests are expected by Specialists from the Costa Rican Social Security Fund will protests demanding improvements in their workplace conditions, better infrastructure and competitive salaries.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives Acceptance Remarks At the Lifetime Achievement Awards Ceremony, Cook Center at Duke University, Washington, D.C.

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (February)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)/ BoC Business Outlook Survey

·       USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI & Employment (March)/ Fed Cook Speech

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (March)/ Monetary Policy Minutes

·       Mexico S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

·       Uruguay Current Account Q4

·       Peru Inflation Rate (March)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou will lead a delegation of Taiwanese young professionals to visit China through April 11.  The trip is seen as highly controversial inside Taiwan and coming under considerable criticism. 

·       Indonesian Defense Minister and President-elect Prabowo Subianto will visit Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, China, through April 2.  The two sides will discuss "a joint development model," according to China's Foreign Ministry. Indonesia has maintained friendly relations with China throughout the decadelong tenure of outgoing President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo, and Subianto has vowed policy continuity.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Tankan Large All Industry Capex Q1/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (March)

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)/ Business Confidence Q1/ Budget Balance (February)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (March)/ Current Account Final Q4

·       Kazakhstan Tengri Partners Manufacturing PMI (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (March)/ Wholesale Prices (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne will visit China.  The meeting is seen as a possible prelude to Chinese President Xi Jinping visiting France sometime in May.

·       U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris, France. 

·       Russia begins its annual spring military conscription.  President Putin has signed an order increasing the number of men who can be drafted by 150,000.

·       Today is a public holiday for most of Europe.  Markets are closed as are most governments.

·       Today is Cyprus National Day, celebrating when their revolt against the British began in 1955.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (March)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)/ Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Spain New Car Sales (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Deadline for Israel's government to stop funding yeshiva schools that do not comply with conscription orders for ultra-Orthodox men, according to a Supreme Court order.

·       New Zealand's Foreign Minister Winston Peters will meet with Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry and Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit in Cairo, Egypt. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (January)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       A South African court will rule on allegations that National Assembly speaker Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula received millions of rands in cash as bribes when she was defense minister.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales (March)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (February)

Tuesday, April 2, 2024 

Global

·       The United Nations Human Rights Council discusses the situation in Haiti.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the Day of the Veterans in Argentina, marking the loss of military lives in the Battle of the Falklands in 1982.

·       Also in Argentina, Unemployed Argentinians will block access to tourist sites to oppose the elimination of social programs under the government of President Javier Milei. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives an address entitled “Bank Mergers and Acquisitions, and De Novo Bank Formation: Implications for the Future of the Banking System” at A Workshop on the Future of Banking hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (Virtual).

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly to participate in hybrid fireside chat in partnership with the Henderson Chamber of Commerce, Latin Chamber of Commerce Nevada, and Vegas Chamber of Commerce.

·       Brazil Bank Lending (February)/ PPI (February)

·       Mexico Business Confidence (March)

·       USA Redbook (March/30)/ JOLTs Job Openings (February)/ Factory Orders (February)/ Fed Bowman Speech/ Fed Williams Speech/ Fed Mester Speech/ Fed Daly Speech/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (March)/ Total Vehicle Sales (March)

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Pakistan holds senatorial elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ASEAN finance ministers and central bankers will meet in Laos.

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (March)/ RBA Kent Speech/ RBA Meeting Minutes/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (March)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (March)/ Commodity Prices (March)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (April/02)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (March)/ CPI (March)

·       Philippines PPI (February)

·       Japan 10-Year JGB Auction

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (March)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (March)/ MAS 4 & 12-Week Bill Auction

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda will meet European Council President Charles Michel, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and Bulgarian Prime Minister Nikolay Denkov in Vilnius, Lithuania.  They are expected to discuss the situation in Ukraine and security issues in the region.

·       Ukraine and the European Commission will co-host the international conference "Restoring Justice for Ukraine" at the World Forum in The Hague, the Netherlands.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (March)

·       Romania PPI (February)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (March)/ BoE Consumer Credit (February)/ Mortgage Approvals & Lending (February)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (March)/ M4 Money Supply (February)/ Net Lending to Individuals (February)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Final (January)/ PPI (February)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (March)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (February)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

·       Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (March)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (March)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate   Prel (March)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (March)/ 3 6, & 12-Month BTF Auction

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (March)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (March)/ Bavaria CPI (March)/ Brandenburg CPI (March)/ Hesse CPI (March)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (March)/ Saxony CPI (March)/ Inflation Rate Prel (March)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (March)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (February)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Prel (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar GDP Growth Rate Q3 & Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Senegal’s President-elect Bassirou Diomaye Faye is set to become the fifth President of Senegal on Tuesday when he will be sworn in, after winning the March 24 presidential election.

·       In Gabon, a post-coup national dialogue will begin.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (March)

Wednesday, April 3, 2024

Global

·       OPEC+ holds ministerial meetings in Vienna, Austria.

·       The nomination period for the selection of the next managing director of the International Monetary Fund closes.  The incumbent managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, has indicated she wants another five-year term and may have enough support to secure the selection.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives an address entitled “Economic Outlook” at the Stanford Business, Government, and Society Forum, Stanford, California.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives an address entitled “Bank Liquidity, Regulation, and the Fed’s Role as Lender of Last Resort” at the Committee on Capital Markets Regulation Roundtable on Lender of Last Resort, Washington, D.C.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee to give opening remarks before virtual Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago event entitled "Preventing Elder Financial Exploitation: Research, Policies, and Strategies.”

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr participates in a discussion on  the Community Reinvestment Act at the Just Economy Conference 2024 in Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech entitled “The Outlook for the U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy” at the “Conversation with a Governor of the Federal Reserve Board” in St. Louis, Missouri.

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (March)/ Industrial Production (February)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (March)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (March)/ ADP Employment Change (March)/ S&P Global Services Composite PMI Final (March)/ Fed Bowman Speech/ ISM Services PMI (March)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (March/29)/ Fed Goolsbee Speech/ Fed Chair Powell Speech/ Fed Barr Speech/ Fed Kugler Speech

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (January)

·       Canada S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (March)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (March)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China will celebrate its Qingming (Tomb Sweeping) festival through April 6.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Australia Ai Group Industry Index (March)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Services & Composite PMI Final (March)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (March)/ URA Property Index   Prel Q1

·       China Caixin Services & Composite PMI (March)

·       Kazhkstan Tengri Partners Services PMI (March)

·       Thailand Business Confidence (March)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (February)

·       India M3 Money Supply (March/22)

·       Sri Lanka Current Account Q4

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       A NATO foreign ministers meeting will take place in Brussels, Belgium, through April 4, coinciding with the alliance's 75th anniversary.

·       The sixth U.S.-EU Trade and Technology Council summit will take place in Leuven, Belgium, through April 5. 

·       Belarus will hold legislative elections for its upper house. 

·      There will be an informal meeting of EU Transport Ministers through April 4 in Brussels.

·      Italian port workers will hold nationwide strikes through April 5.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Romania Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Russia S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (March)/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ Business Confidence (March)/ Corporate Profits (January)/ Real Wage Growth (January)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       France Budget Balance (February)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (March)/ CPI (March)/ PPI (March)/ Auto Sales (March)

·       Italy Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Euro Area Inflation Rate   Flash (March)/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ CPI Flash (March)/ 3 & 6-Month Bill Auction

·       Italy New Car Registrations (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (March)

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (March)

·       Qatar Financial Centre PMI (March)

·       Kuwait National Assembly Election

·       Jordan GDP Growth Rate Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (March)

·       Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (March)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (March)

·       Nigeria Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Kenya Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, April 4, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Joe Biden will host Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis in Washington, D.C.  They are expected to discuss the situation in Ukraine, the situation in Gaza, and bilateral defense issues as well as energy efforts. 

·       Today is the deadline for former President Donald Trump to post a $175 million bond as part of his civil fraud case in New York.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech entitled “Enriching Data and Analysis in Economics with Real Life Experiences.” at the Women in Economics Symposium in St. Louis, Missouri.

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem to give introductory remarks before the 2024 Women in Economics Symposium hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester to participate in conversation on the economic outlook before the virtual Global Interdependence Center Executive Briefing.

·       Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)/ Consumer Confidence (March)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Brazil Current Account (February)/ Foreign Direct Investment (February)/ Car Production (March)/ New Car Registrations (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (March)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Initial Jobless Claims (March/30)/ 4 & 8-Week Bill Auction/ 15 & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/03)/ Fed Goolsbee Speech/ Fed Mester Speech/ Fed Musalem Speech/ Fed Kugler Speech

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (March)

·       Colombia Exports (February)/ PPI (March)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Building Permits (February)

·       Australia Judo Bank Services & Composite PMI Final (March)/ RBA Jones Speech/ Retail Sales Final (February)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (March/30)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (March/30)/ 30-Year JGB Auction

·       India HSBC Services & Composite PMI Final (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO celebrates its 75th anniversary.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Prel (February)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (March)/ CPI (March)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (March)/ HCOB Services & Composite PMI (March)/ 10 & 15-Year Obligacion Auction

·       Italy HCOB Services & Composite PMI (March)

·       France HCOB Services & Composite PMI Final (March)/ 10, 20, & 30-Year OAT Auction

·       Germany HCOB Services & Composite PMI Final (March)

·       Euro Area HCOB Services & Composite PMI Final (March)/ PPI (February)/ ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (March)/ HCOB Services & Composite PMI Final (March)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (February)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/29)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (April)

·       Romania Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Kuwait holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (March)

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (March)/ Composite Economic Index (February)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (February)/ Private Bank Lending (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Senegal Independence Day, marking the day the country gained its independence in 1960 from France.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (March)

·       Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (March)

·       Ghana S&P Global PMI (March)

·       Tanzania Interest Rate Decision

Friday, April 5, 2024 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau hosts Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa in Ottawa.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins to give welcome remarks before the virtual Conference on the Financial Stability Implications of Stablecoins hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to speak before the Greater Baltimore Committee.  His speech is entitled "Pulse Check: The Scorecard Summit 2024.”

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Risks and Uncertainty in Monetary Policy: Current & Past Considerations” at the Shadow Open Market Committee Spring Meeting in New York.

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (February)/ Nominal Budget Balance (February)

·       Mexico Auto Exports & Production (March)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (March)/ Ivey PMI s.a (March)

·       USA Unemployment Rate (March)/ Fed Barkin Speech/ Fed Bowman Speech/ Consumer Credit Change (February)/ Used Car Prices (March)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (March)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (March)

·       Panama Current Account Q3

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (February)

·       Japan Household Spending (February)/ 3-Month Bill Auction/ Coincident Index Prel (February)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (March)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Thailand Core Inflation Rate (March)

·       India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ Bank Loan Growth (March/22)/ Deposit Growth (March/22)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/29)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President von der Leyen will host Secretary of State Blinken and Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan for development “trilateral cooperation” talks in Brussels. 

·       The UK train driver’s union, Aslef, will go on strike on the west coast.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Factory Orders (February)/ Import Prices (February)/ HCOB Construction PMI (March)/ New Car Registrations (March)

·       Romania Retail Sales (February)

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (March)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (March)

·       Hungary Industrial Production   Prel (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       France Industrial Production (February)/ HCOB Construction PMI (March)/ New Car Registrations (March)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (February)

·       Spain Industrial Production (February)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (March)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (March)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (February)

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ GDP Growth Rate   Q4

·       Serbia PPI (March)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Jordan PPI (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (February)

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

Saturday, April 6, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Slovakia will hold the second round of presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, April 7, 2024 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Poland holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

April 1 - 5, 2024

We hope everyone had a peaceful and enjoyable Easter. The coming week will be a very busy one as the annual “SEC Speaks” Conference, sponsored by the Practicing Law Institute, is held in Washington, D.C. Dozens of SEC officials will speak, beginning with SEC Chair Gary Gensler and SEC Commissioners Hester Pierce and Mark Uyeda. As with every SEC Speaks conference, there will be a lot of news about the SEC’s direction over the coming year.

But another conference in Washington this week may garner major headlines, too. The National Community Reinvestment Coalition (NCRC) holds its Just Economy Conference 2024. All four banking regulators are speaking at the Conference  - Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Chair Marty Gruenberg, Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu, and Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra. Considering that the NCRC has been lobbying against the Capital One/Discovery merger, you have to wonder if these four bank regulators  – all overseeing the review of the deal – are trying to send some message. 

Add to this the FDIC’s recent adoption of a proposal to effectively halt any bank merger in which one of the banks has more than $100 billion in assets—a proposal Gruenberg, Hsu, and Chopra voted in favor of—and you really start to wonder what they are thinking about the proposed merger.

Also, this coming week, a small army of Federal Reserve Board Governors and Federal Reserve Bank Presidents will be hitting the speaking circuit. Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman will give an address entitled “Bank Mergers and Acquisitions, and De Novo Bank Formation: Implications for the Future of the Banking System”. At the same time, Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins will speak on the implications to the financial stability of Stablecoins.

Congress is out of session this week and return the following week. Below is a listing of all the other significant regulatory-related events this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

U.S. Senate

• The Senate is out of session this week.

House of Representatives

• The House is out of session this week.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

• Monday, April 1, 6:50 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives Acceptance Remarks At the Lifetime Achievement Awards Ceremony, Cook Center at Duke University, Washington, D.C.

• Tuesday, April 2, 10:10 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives an address entitled “Bank Mergers and Acquisitions, and De Novo Bank Formation: Implications for the Future of the Banking System” at A Workshop on the Future of Banking hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (Virtual).

• Tuesday, April 2, 12:30 p.m. CT / 1:30 p.m. ET—San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly will participate in a hybrid fireside chat in partnership with the Henderson Chamber of Commerce, Latin Chamber of Commerce Nevada, and Vegas Chamber of Commerce.

• Wednesday, April 3, 9:45 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives an address entitled “Bank Liquidity, Regulation, and the Fed’s Role as Lender of Last Resort” at the Committee on Capital Markets Regulation Roundtable on Lender of Last Resort, Washington, D.C.

• Wednesday, April 3, 11:00 a.m. CT / 12:00 p.m. ET – Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee to give opening remarks before virtual Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago event entitled "Preventing Elder Financial Exploitation: Research, Policies, and Strategies.”

• Wednesday, April 3, 3:10 p.m. ET / 12:10 p.m. PST – Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives an address entitled “Economic Outlook” at the Stanford Business, Government, and Society Forum, Stanford, California

• Wednesday, April 3, 1:10 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr participates in a discussion on  the Community Reinvestment Act at the Just Economy Conference 2024 in Washington, D.C.

• Wednesday, April 3, 4:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech entitled “The Outlook for the U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy” at the “Conversation with a Governor of the Federal Reserve Board” in St. Louis, Missouri.

• Thursday, April 4, 1:00 p.m. CT / 2:00 p.m. ET: Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester will participate in a conversation on the economic outlook before the virtual Global Interdependence Center Executive Briefing.

• Thursday, April 4, 6:20 p.m. CT / 7:20 p.m. ET—St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem will give introductory remarks before the 2024 Women in Economics Symposium hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

• Thursday, April 4, 7:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech entitled “Enriching Data and Analysis in Economics with Real Life Experiences.” at the Women in Economics Symposium in St. Louis, Missouri.

• Friday, April 5, 7:30 a.m. CT / 8:30 a.m. ET—Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins will give welcome remarks before the virtual Conference on the Financial Stability Implications of Stablecoins hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

• Friday, 8:15 a.m. – Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to speak before the Greater Baltimore Committee.  His speech is entitled "Pulse Check: The Scorecard Summit 2024.”

• Friday, April 5, 12:15 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Risks and Uncertainty in Monetary Policy: Current & Past Considerations” at the Shadow Open Market Committee Spring Meeting in New York.

U.S. Treasury Department

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• Tuesday, April 2, 8:45 a.m. – SEC Chair Gary Gensler will give an address at the Practicing Law Institutes’ “The SEC Speaks” Conference in Washington, D.C. 

• Tuesday, April 2, 10:25 a.m. – SEC Commissioner Hester Pierce will give remarks at the Practicing Law Institutes’ “The SEC Speaks” Conference in Washington, D.C. 

• Tuesday, April 2, 2:35 p.m. – SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda gives remarks at the Practicing Law Institutes’ “The SEC Speaks” Conference in Washington, D.C. 

• Thursday, April 4, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• Thursday, April 4, 5:45 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will speak to a class on Emerging Issues in U.S. Financial Services Regulation at the Georgetown University Law Center in Washington, D.C.

• Friday, April 5, 12:00 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will receive the 2024 Belva Lockwood Award from The George Washington University Law School and Law Association for Women in Washington, D.C.

FINRA

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• Thursday, April 4, 7:30 a.m. – FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg will discuss financial services and inequality on a panel with Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu at the National Community Reinvestment Coalition’s Just Economy Conference in Washington, D.C.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• Thursday, April 4, 7:30 a.m. – Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael J. Hsu will discuss financial services and inequality on a panel with FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg at the National Community Reinvestment Coalition’s Just Economy Conference in Washington, D.C.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• Wednesday, April 3, 3:45 p.m. – CFPB Director Rohit Chopra will give a speech at the Just Economy Conference 2024 in Washington, D.C.

• Thursday, April 4, 1:30 p.m. – CFPB Director Rohit Chopra speaks at the International Association of Privacy Professionals Global Privacy Summit in Washington, D.C.  His speech is entitled “ Unblurring the Lines: The Future of Financial Privacy.”

National Credit Union Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• Tuesday, April 2, 2:00 p.m. – The FTC’s Older Adults Advisory Group Meeting will convene to discuss better ways to identify and stop scams from impacting older adults.  A heavy focus will be on how the banking sector can do more to block such scams.

Farm Credit Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

• Tuesday, April 2, 3:30 p.m. – IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks at the Center for Global Development in Washington, D.C.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

• Tuesday, April 2, 12:45 p.m. – The American Bar Association holds a virtual discussion on "Inside Crypto's Trial of the Century," focusing on the trial of FTX Founder Sam-Bankman Fried.

Think Tanks

• Tuesday, April 2, 9:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance holds an online session entitled “Examining the U.S. SEC Final Climate Disclosure Rule in an International Context.”  Former SEC Commissioner Elad Roisman will be among the speakers.

• Thursday, April 4, 1:30 p.m. – The Brooking Institution holds a discussion entitled “Why is private credit growing so fast? Is it a risk to financial stability?” both virtually and in person in Washington, D.C.  

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

The Global Week Ahead

March 25 - 31, 2024

The coming week should be relatively quiet as the Easter holiday is next weekend and many governments scaling back their activities for the holiday and with major financial markets being closed for Good Friday.   But we live in strange times and, considering the horrid ISIS attack in Moscow killing at least 137 people this past week, we will be watching closely to see what Russian President Vladimir Putin does to retaliate against ISIS (wherever he can find them) and, unfortunately, Ukraine whom he keeps blaming for facilitating the attack.

Also this week, we will be watching for a possible meeting between Chinese President Xi Jingping and US CEOs in Beijing.  The meeting may or may not happen, according to Chinese sources, but if it does happen, it will be interesting to hear Xi’s appeal to the CEOs to continue doing business in China and how he sees the nation’s economic situation.

In the US, Monday is the deadline for former President Donald Trump to come up with enough money to pay a guarantee on the $464 million fine imposed on him by a New York Court or begin having his properties seized by the New York Attorney General.   Congress is out of session this coming week and the following week, too. 

On the economic radar screen this week, the two big events of the week which markets will be watching closely is the US inflation data release and the Bank of Japan’s release of their summary of opinions (could more rate increases be coming to Japan or was this a “one and done” event by the BoJ?).    There will also be a number of sentiment survey releases in the EU, Asia, and the Conference Board survey in the US.

There are only a few central bank speeches of note this week – the most prominent being this coming Friday when Fed Chair Jay Powell participates in the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference.

Below is everything else we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, March 24, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• El Salvador Current Account Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The China Development Forum will host CEOs of major global corporations in Beijing through March 25.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• There will be an informal meeting of EU fisheries ministers in Brussels through March 25.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Composite Economic Index (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Senegal is scheduled to hold presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday, March 25, 2024

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Today is the deadline for Donald Trump to find a private company to guarantee the $464mn he has been ordered to pay in a separate New York civil fraud case.

• Guatemalan President Bernardo Arevalo will meet with U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris in Washington, United States, to discuss migration and other issues. 

• Today is the deadline for candidates to register for the presidential election in Venezuela.  However, the government keeps disqualifying everyone who wants to run.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech entitled “The Dual Mandate and the Balance of Risks” at Ec10b: Principles of Economics Lecture in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

• Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic will participate in a moderated conversation on “Equitable Economic Development" before the University of Cincinnati Real Estate Center's March Roundtable.

• Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee will be interviewed on Yahoo Finance.

• Brazil Current Account (February)/ Foreign Direct Investment (February)

• Canada Manufacturing Sales Prel (February)

• USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (February)/ New Home Sales (February)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (March)/ Fed Cook Speech/ 3 & 6-Month Bill Auction/ 2-Year Note Auction/ Building Permits Final (February)

• Colombia Business Confidence (February)

• Argentina Current Account Q12 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Sri Lankan Prime Minister Dinesh Gunawardena will visit China through March 30.

• India celebrates Holi today.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Coincident Index Final (January)/ Leading Economic Index Final (January)

• Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

• Malaysia Inflation Rate (February)/ Coincident Index (January)/ Leading Index (January)

• Singapore Core Inflation Rate (February)/ CPI (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)

• Taiwan Industrial Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

• Sri Lanka PPI (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Greece celebrates Independence Day.  Financial markets are closed.

• The EU Environmental Council will meet in Brussels.  They will discuss a proposal to revise the waste framework directive, focusing on the textile and food sectors.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board President Christine Lagarde participates in the EIB Group Climate and Environment Advisory Council in Luxembourg.

• Ireland Consumer Confidence (March)

• Spain PPI (February)/ Consumer Confidence (February)

• Poland Unemployment Rate (February)

• Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (February)

• Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (March)

• France 3, 6, & 12-Month BTF Auction

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Israel celebrates the festival of Shushan Purim.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Manufacturing Production (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The African Union’s Pan-African Parliament will hold elections for president, first vice president, and fourth vice president of the bureau.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Consumer Confidence Q1

• Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (February)

• Ghana Interest Rate Decision

• Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (March)

Tuesday, March 26, 2024 

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the Middle East. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the 1540 Committee. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Carolyn Rogers, Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, will give a speech on the need to improve Canadian productivity.

• Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ Bank Lending (February)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (March)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

• Canada BoC Rogers Speech/ Wholesale Sales Prel (February)

• USA Durable Goods Orders/ Ex Transp/ ex Defense (February)/ Non-Defense Goods Orders Ex Air (February)/ Redbook (March 23)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (January)/ House Price Index (January)/ CB Consumer Confidence (March)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing and Manufacturing Shipments and Services Index (March)/ Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (March)/ 5-Year Note Auction/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (March 22)

• Paraguay GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Current Account Q4

• Argentina Economic Activity (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• China hosts the annual Boao Forum for Asia returns to its permanent location in Hainan in southern China. Former Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda and Las Vegas Sands Chairman and CEO Robert Goldstein are among the delegates expected at the four-day international meeting to discuss economic and geopolitical issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Korea Consumer Confidence (March)

• Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change & Index (March)/ RBA Connolly Speech

• Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

• Singapore Industrial Production (February)/ 5-Year Bond Auction/ MAS 4 & 12-Week Bill Auction

• Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

• Thailand New Car Sales (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels through April 2. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a Trinity Student Economic Review event at Trinity College Dublin, Ireland.

• Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (April)/ 5 & 10-Year Bund/g Auction

• Spain GDP Growth Rate Final Q4

• Great Britain 5-Year Treasury Gilt Auction

• Italy 6-Month BOT Auction

• Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (March)/ Inflation Report/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

• Kuwait M2 Money Supply (February)/ Private Bank Lending (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• South Africa's Independent Election Commission will unveil the provisional list of candidates partaking in the country's May 29 general election.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (January)

• Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, March 27, 2024

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF). 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller gives a speech entitled “Economic Outlook” at the Economic Club of New York Reception, in New York.

• USA House Price Index (January)/ MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate/ Applications/ Market Index/ Refinance Index/ Purchase Index (March 22)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks, Gasoline Stocks, Oil Imports, Cushing Crude Oil Stocks, Distillate Fuel Production, Distillate Stocks, Gasoline Production, Heating Oil Stocks, Refinery Crude Runs Change (March 22)/ 17-Week Bill Auction/ 2-Year FRN Auction/ 7-Year Note Auction/ Fed Waller Speech

• Brazil IGP-M Inflation (March)/ Gross Debt to GDP (February)/ Nominal Budget Balance (February)/ Net Payrolls (February)

• Mexico Balance of Trade (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)

• Argentina Consumer Confidence (March)

• Canada 10-Year Bond Auction

• Russia Industrial Production (February)/ GDP (January)

• Colombia Cement Production (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)

• Costa Rica GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Current Account Q4

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• China’s President Xi Jinping is tentatively scheduled to meet with US CEOs in Beijing.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Naoki Tamura will give a speech to local leaders in Aomori, Japan.

• South Korea Business Confidence (March)

• Australia Westpac Leading Index (February)/ Monthly CPI Indicator (February)

• New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (March)

• China Industrial Profits (YTD) (February)

• Taiwan Consumer Confidence (March)

• Japan 40-Year JGB Auction

• Malaysia PPI (February)

• Singapore 6-Month T-Bill Auction

• Sri Lanka Balance of Trade (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a speech on monetary policy followed by Q&A at the House of the Euro in Brussels, Belgium.

• ECB Board Member Frank Elderson gives a speech and participates on a panel discussion at the “High-level Remarks on Climate-related Financial Risks” event organized by Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) and the Brazilian Federation of Banks (FEBRABAN) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

• Hungary Current Account Q4/ Unemployment Rate (February)

• France Consumer Confidence (March)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (February)/ Jobseekers Total (February)

• Slovakia Business Confidence (March)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

• Spain Inflation Rate Prel (March)/ Core Inflation Rate Prel (March)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate Prel (March)/ Retail Sales (February)/ Current Account (January)/ Business Confidence (March)

• Italy Construction Output (January)/ 10-Year BTP Auction/ 5-Year BTP Auction

• Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (March)

• Euro Area Economic Sentiment (March)/ Consumer Confidence Final (March)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)/ Industrial Sentiment (March)/ Selling Price Expectations (March)/ Services Sentiment (March)

• Germany 7-Year Bund Auction

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Qatar GDP Growth Rate for Q3 & Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The UN Economic Commission for Africa and The African Peer Review Mechanism will hold a retreat in Lusaka, Zambia, to discuss the launch of the African Credit Rating Agency. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

• Mozambique Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, March 28, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva meets his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron in the presidential palace in Brasília on a state visit.  Macron and Lula are going to try to hammer a long-delayed EU-Mercosur Free Trade deal.

• Today is the sentencing of former chief executive of cryptocurrency exchange FTX Sam Bankman-Fried, convicted by a federal jury of conspiracy to commit wire fraud, conspiracy to commit commodities fraud, conspiracy to commit securities fraud, and conspiracy to commit money laundering.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Canada CFIB Business Barometer (March)/ GDP (January)/ GDP Prel (February)/ Average Weekly Earnings (January)

• Brazil Unemployment Rate (February)

• Chile Copper Production (February)/ Industrial Production (February)/ Manufacturing Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)

• USA GDP Growth Rate Final Q4/ Corporate Profits Q4/ GDP Price Index Final Q4/ Initial Jobless Claims (March 23)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (March 16)/ Core PCE Prices Final Q4/ GDP Sales Final Q4/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (March 23)/ PCE Prices Final Q4/ Real Consumer Spending Final Q4/ Chicago PMI (March)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (March)/ Pending Home Sales  (February)/ Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Final (March)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations Final (March)/ Michigan Current Conditions Final (March)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations Final (March)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (March 22)/ Kansas Fed Composite Index (March)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (March)/ 4 & 8-Week Bill Auction/ 15 & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (March 27)/ Prospective Plantings – Corn, Cotton, Soy, Wheat 2024/ Quarterly Grain Stocks - Corn, Soy, Wheat (March)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (March 29)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (March 29)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (March)

• Japan BoJ Summary of Opinions, Foreign Bond Investment (March 23), Stock Investment by Foreigners (March 23)

• Australia Housing Credit (February)/ Retail Sales Prel (February)/ Private Sector Credit (February)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)

• Singapore Bank Lending (February), Export Prices (February), Import Prices (February), PPI (February)

• Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (March)

• India Current Account Q4/ External Debt Q4

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Polish and Ukrainian leaders are scheduled to meet to discuss ongoing tensions over Polish farmers who are blocking Ukrainian produce at the border.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Great Britain Car Production (February)/ Current Account Q4/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q4/ Business Investment Final Q4

• Germany Retail Sales (February)/ Unemployed Persons (March)/ Unemployment Change (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

• Turkey Economic Confidence Index (March)/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March 22)

• Hungary Gross Wage (January)

• Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (March)

• Euro Area Loans to Companies (February)/ Loans to Households (February)/ M3 Money Supply (February)

• Italy Business Confidence (March)/ Consumer Confidence (March)/ PPI (February)

• Slovenia Retail Sales (February)

• Greece Total Credit (February)

• Ireland Retail Sales (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Unemployment Rate Q4/ M3 Money Supply (February)/ Private Bank Lending (February)

• Israel M1 Money Supply (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa M3 Money Supply (February)/ Private Sector Credit (February)/ PPI (February)/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Budget Balance (February)

• Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

Friday, March 29, 2024 

Global

• Today is Good Friday.  Most financial markets in Western nations are closed.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly gives welcome remarks before the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference.

• Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to participate in moderated discussion before the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference.

• USA Core PCE Price Index (February) / Personal Income (February)/ Personal Spending (February)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (February)/ PCE Price Index (February)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos Adv (February)/ Wholesale Inventories Adv (February)/

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Korea Industrial Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

• Japan Unemployment Rate (February)/ Jobs/applications ratio (February)/ Tokyo Core CPI (March)/ Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy (March)/ Tokyo CPI (March)/ Industrial Production Prel (February)/ Retail Sales (February)/ Industrial Production Prel (February)/ 2-Year JGB Auction/ Housing Starts (February)/ Construction Orders (February)

• Vietnam Balance of Trade (March), Foreign Direct Investment (March), GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Industrial Production (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Tourist Arrivals (March)

• Thailand Industrial Production (February)/ Current Account (February)/ Private Consumption & Investment (February)

• Malaysia M3 Money Supply (February)

• China Current Account Final Q4

• India Government Budget Value (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March 22)/ Infrastructure Output (February)

• Pakistan Consumer Confidence (February)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

• Philippines Budget Balance (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Today is the one-year anniversary of Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich’s detention by Russia.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (February)

• France Inflation Rate Prel (March)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate Prel (March)/ PPI (February)

• Poland Inflation Rate Prel (March)

• Slovenia CPI (March)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)

• Greece PPI (February)/ Retail Sales (January)

• Italy Inflation Rate Prel (March)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate Prel (March)

• Russia Balance of Trade (February)/ Industrial Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)/ M2 Money Supply (February)

• Ukraine Current Account (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nigeria Unemployment Rate Q4

• Kenya Inflation Rate (March)

Saturday, March 30, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 31, 2024

Global

• Today is Easter Sunday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China NBS Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI (March)/ NBS General PMI (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Turkey holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

March 18 - 22, 2024

You know spring is here when the major financial services trade groups hold big annual meetings. The American Bankers Association (ABA), SIFMA, and the Investment Company Institute are all holding conferences this week, with the ABA’s Washington Summit being the largest and likely most news-making. A number of regulators and members of Congress are speaking at these conferences, and we will be listening carefully to what is said.  

Outside of the trade association conferences, we will be watching five hearings the House Financial Services Committee is holding this week. It is our sense House Republicans are ramping up their focus and criticism of several regulatory proposals – mainly at the SEC but also the CFPB and Fed – as they prepare to begin moving Congressional Review Act (CRA) legislation to try and repeal the regs in advance of a June 7 deadline to use the CRA. 

Otherwise, the new Congress in 2025 would have to pass repeal legislation to get any regs repealed.

Speaking of regulations, as we predicted in our note last week, the SEC was likely to face a series of lawsuits over its new Carbon Disclosure rules. Well, those lawsuits came flying into federal courthouses fast and furious from various companies and trade associations (including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce), with one causing the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals to issue an order temporarily blocking the rule.  

However, it wasn’t just businesses suing the SEC over the rule: The Sierra Club filed a federal lawsuit against the SEC, saying the rule did not go far enough and would leave investors unable to understand a company’s climate risk fully.  

Overall, this week will be busy in the U.S. financial regulatory space. Below are all the major regulatory events we are watching this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

U.S. Senate

• Wednesday, March 20, 2:30 p.m.: The Senate Finance Committee will hold a hearing on "The President's FY2025 Social Security Administration Budget.”

House of Representatives

• Monday, March 18, 11:00 a.m. - The House Financial Services Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee field hearing on "Victims of Regulatory Overreach: How the SEC's Climate Disclosure Rule Will Harm Americans."

• Wednesday, March 20, 10:00 a.m.: The House Financial Services Capital Markets Subcommittee will hold a hearing on "SEC Overreach: Examining the Need for Reform."

• Wednesday, March 20, 11:30 a.m. –The House Agriculture Committee holds a hearing on "The Danger China Poses to American Agriculture."

• Wednesday, March 20, 2:00 p.m.: The House Financial Services Housing and Insurance Subcommittee will hold a hearing on "The Characteristics and Challenges of Today's Homebuyers."

• Thursday, March 21, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing entitled “Importing Global Governance: Examining the Dangers of Ceding Authority over American Financial Regulation.”

• Thursday, March 21, 2:30 p.m. – The House Appropriations Financial Services and General Government Subcommittee holds a hearing on "President Biden's FY2025 Budget Request and Economic Outlook."

Joint Committees

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

White House

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

• Tuesday and Wednesday, March 19-20—The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meets to discuss the state of the economy and interest rates. Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell will give a press conference at 2:30 p.m. on Wednesday to discuss the meeting and the interest rate decision.

• Thursday, March 21, 12:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michael Barr will have a Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr will participate in a “Conversation with Students and Faculty” At A View from the Fed: A Fireside Discussion at the Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy, Ann Arbor, Michigan.

• Friday, March 22, 9:00 a.m. – 11:00 a.m. – The Federal Reserve will hold a Fed Listens: Transitioning to the Post-Pandemic Economy Event at the Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C. Fed Chair Jay Powell will give opening remarks, followed by a panel discussion chaired by Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman entitled “Evolving Conditions for Families and Job Seekers.” This will be followed by a second panel, chaired by Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, entitled “Industry Perspectives.”

• Friday, March 22, 12:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr will give a speech entitled “International Economic and Monetary Design” at the Transnational Law Conference on the International Law of Money: International Economic and Monetary Design (virtual).

U.S. Treasury Department

• Wednesday, March 20, 1:30 p.m. – The US Treasury Department holds a meeting of the Federal Advisory Committee on Insurance to discuss topics related to climate-related financial risk and the insurance sector, to discuss cyber insurance developments and international insurance issues, to receive status updates from each of its subcommittees and from the Federal Insurance Office on its activities and to consider any new business.

U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development

• Thursday, March 21, 10:00 a.m. (San Antonio, Texas) – The Department of Housing and Urban Development’s Housing Counseling Federal Advisory Committee meets to discuss Meeting the Needs of the Latino Community in San Antonio, Texas.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• Monday, March 18, 1:15 p.m. PT – SEC Commissioner Hester Pierce participates in a Keynote Conversation with Investment Company Institute CEO Eric Pan at the 2024 ICI Conference in Palm Desert, California.

• Tuesday, March 19, 8:45 a.m. – SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda will participate in a “Regulatory Perspectives and Priorities” panel with SIFMA President and CEO Ken Bentsen, CFTC Commissioner Kristin Johnson, Deputy Comptroller Kevin Walsh, and NASAA President Claire McHenry at the SIFMA C&L Annual Seminar in Orlando, Florida.

• Thursday, March 21, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

• Friday, March 22, 12:00 p.m. – SEC Chair Gary Gensler will give remarks at the Columbia Law Conference in New York honoring Professor John Coffee.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• Tuesday, March 19, 8:45 a.m. – CFTC Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will participate in a “Regulatory Perspectives and Priorities” panel with SIFMA President and CEO Ken Bentsen, SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda, Deputy Comptroller Kevin Walsh, and NASAA President Claire McHenry at the SIFMA C&L Annual Seminar in Orlando, Florida.

• Wednesday, March 20, 11:30 a.m. ET/8:30 a.m. PT – CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam will keynote virtually at the North American Carbon World (NACW) Conference in San Francisco, CA.

• Thursday, March 21, 6:15 a.m. ET/11:15 a.m. CET – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will participate on a panel at the World Federation of Exchanges’ Clearing and Derivatives Conference titled Higher Capital & Financial Resource Requirements - Reducing or Increasing Risk? In Madrid, Spain.

FINRA

• March 17-20 – SIFMA will be holding its Compliance and Legal 2024 Annual Seminar in Orlando, Florida.  Among the scheduled speakers are FINRA Head of Enforcement Bill St. Louis and FINRA CEO Robert Cook.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• Thursday, March 21, 10:00 a.m. – The FDIC Board of Directors will meet virtually to discuss a proposed statement of Policy on Bank Merger Transactions.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• Thursday, March 21, 1:30 p.m. CFPB Director Rohit Chopra, along with Jonathan Kanter, Assistant Attorney General at the US Department of Justice, will speak at The Peterson Institute for International Economics at an event entitled “Revitalizing bank merger reviews.”   

National Credit Union Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• Thursday, March 21, 11:00 a.m. – The FTC will hold an open meeting to discuss a new Supply Chain Report.

Farm Credit Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Export-Import Bank

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

World Bank

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Association Events/Public Events

• March 17-20 – SIFMA will be holding its Compliance and Legal 2024 Annual Seminar in Orlando, Florida.  Among the scheduled speakers are CFTC Director of Enforcement Ian McGinley, FINRA Head of Enforcement Bill St. Louis, former SEC Chair Mary Jo White, FINRA CEO Robert Cook, SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda, and US Attorney for the Southern District Damian Williams.

• March 17 – 20 – The Investment Company Institute holds its 2024 Investment Management Conference in Palm Desert, California.

• March 18 – 20 – The American Bankers Association holds its 2024 Washington Summit in Washington, D.C.  Among the speakers are Senators John Tester (D-MT), Katie Britt (R-AL), and House Majority Whip Representative Tom Emmer (R-MN)

• Tuesday, March 19, 9:00 a.m. – PunchBowl News holds a summit on "The Digital Payments Economy," focusing on "the future of commerce, exploring how digital payments support consumers, small businesses and the economy."  House Financial Services Committee Chair Patrick McHenry (R-NC) will speak.

• Tuesday, March 19, 9:30 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance holds its IIF/EY Insurance Risk Management Survey Results event.

• Wednesday, March 20, 12:00 p.m. – The Exchequer Club of Washington, D.C., will host Michael Bright, President of the Structured Finance Association, for a speech on the industry.

• Thursday, March 21, 8:30 a.m. – Politico holds an event entitled “Building Toward Financial Literacy For All” in Washington, D.C.

Think Tank Events

• Tuesday, March 19, 9:30 a.m.: The Brookings Institution will hold an event entitled “Radical Tax Simplification: The Impossible Dream?” 

• Wednesday, March 20, 2:00 p.m. – The Institute for Policy Studies will hold an event entitled “Book Event: Busting the Bankers Club.” The event will discuss Gerald Epstein’s new book, “Busting the Bankers Club: Finance for the Rest of Us.”

• Thursday, March 21, 1:30 p.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a virtual discussion entitled “Revitalizing bank merger reviews.”  Among the speakers will be Rohit Chopra, Director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and a member of the board of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Jonathan Kanter, Assistant Attorney General at the US Department of Justice,  and Esther L. George, former Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

The Global Week Ahead

March 17 - 24, 2024

This week will be quite busy politically and for the markets globally. Starting with the geopolitical outlook, EU leaders will gather for a European Council Summit this week to discuss a heavy agenda ranging from how to aid Ukraine further, the Gaza War (as Israel prepares to move militarily on Rafah, which the EU and US oppose), EU enlargement, greater EU defense cooperation and funding, migration policy, and agricultural policy (in the wake of ongoing and increasingly strident protests by farmers across the EU against climate rules). If that were not enough, EU leaders will also discuss a groundbreaking policy of taxing profits generated by almost $300 billion in frozen Russian assets.   

Also this week, the NATO Defense chiefs will meet in Germany to discuss how to get more military aid to Ukraine as the beleaguered country begins to run low on ammunition. We would note that the US Congress still has no plan to pass a $60 billion military aid package, suggesting that it will take another month (at least) before it can be done.

Meanwhile, in Asia, South Korea will host the Summit for Democracy, attended by more than 40 nations dedicated to advancing democratic principles. While the agenda focuses on how best to foster democracy for future generals, the situations in Russia, China, and the Middle East will be significant issues discussed on the sidelines.

In the United States, Congress faces yet another deadline to get appropriations bills done (by Friday) or face a partial government shutdown. 

On the global economic radar screen this week, it will be a hectic week for central banks – and perhaps a historic one, too. The Bank of Japan meets this week, and it appears they have been poised to raise rates for the first time since 2007. The US Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee meets this week (although unlikely to lower rates), and the Bank of England meets to perhaps lower rates. But that’s not all: more than a dozen other significant central banks are making interest rate decisions this week, including those of six of the ten most traded currencies. 

Regarding major economic data reports, Japan releases CPI prints, and China releases several economic data reports, which will give a good glimpse into how strong — or not — the Lunar New Year holiday was for consumers and sellers. Germany releases both the ZEW and Ifo surveys.

But, as we noted, a lot more is going on politically and economically this week. Below is our full report on what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, March 17, 2024

Global

• Today is St. Patrick’s Day.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Best day ever: It’s St. Patrick’s Day, and March Madness begins.  Did you fill out your brackets?

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Maldives holds legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• European Commission President Ursula von der Leyden, along with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Belgium Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, and Greek Prime Minister Kyrakos Mitsotakis, meet with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi in Cairo to sign  The Partnership revolves around six pillars of “mutual interest including political relations, economic stability, investment and trade, migration and mobility, security and demography, and energy cooperation. 

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will conclude a two-day visit to the Middle East, where he will meet with Jordanian King Abdullah II and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday, March 18, 2024

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on maintenance of international peace and security: Nuclear disarmament and non- proliferation. The Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks.  

• the 2024 Global Methane Forum will take place at the Palais des Nations and the Centre International de Conferences Geneva, from March 18 – 21.  Organized by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and the Global Methane Initiative (GMI), in partnership with the Global Methane Hub and the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC), the Forum aims to foster concrete action to cut emissions of methane. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet his counterpart in South Korea, Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul. Blinken will then attend the Summit for Democracy.

• Guyana will host the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization's Regional Conference for Latin America and the Caribbean in Georgetown through March 21.

• Today is Benito Juarez Day in Mexico, a national holiday celebrating the birth of the former president who helped fight French intervention in Mexico in 1858.

• Today is National Anthem and Flag Day in Aruba, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Chile Current Account Q4, GDP Growth Rate Q4

• Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (January)

• Canada PPI (February), Raw Materials Prices (February), 2-Year Bond Auction

• USA NAHB Housing Market Index (March), 3 & 6-Month Bill Auction

• Colombia Imports/Balance of Trade (January), ISE Economic Activity (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The Secretary-General of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Zhang Ming, will lead a SCO Observer Mission to Moscow.  He will meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to discuss, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry, “countering growing challenges and security threats, and promoting trade, economic, cultural and humanitarian ties.”

• The Summit for Democracy will take place in South Korea through March 20.

Economic Reports/Events –

• New Zealand Composite NZ PCI (February), Services NZ PSI (February)

• Japan Machinery Orders (January)

• Singapore Non-Oil Exports (February), Balance of Trade (February)

• China Industrial Production (January)-(February), Retail Sales (January)-(February), Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (January)-(February), Unemployment Rate (February), NBS Press Conference, FDI (YTD) (February)

• Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

• Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (February)

• Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  Attending as a guest will be US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.  They are expected to discuss the War in Ukraine, Belarus, the situation in the Middle East, and US-EU bilateral affairs.

• U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. CQ Brown Jr. will travel to Ramstein, Germany, to host an in-person meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Claudia Buch participates in a fireside chat at Bankenaufsicht 2024 organized by Handelsblatt in Frankfurt, Germany.

• Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (February)

• Spain Balance of Trade (January)

• Euro Area Balance of Trade (January), Inflation Rate Final (February), Core Inflation Rate Final (February), CPI Final (February)

• Germany 12-Month Bubill Auction

• Belarus Industrial Production (February), GDP (February)

• Poland Core Inflation Rate (January)

• France 3,6, & 12-Month BTF Auction

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Unemployment Rate (February)

• Oman M2 Money Supply (January), Total Credit (January)

• Qatar Inflation Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The U.K.-Africa Health Summit will take place in London, England, through March 19. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, March 19, 2024

Global

• the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the 1591 Committee and consultations on the 1701 report (UN Forces in Lebanon)

•  the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) will release its State of the Global Climate report in Geneva, Switzerland.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Presidential Primaries are held in Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Kansas, and Ohio.

Economic Reports/Events –

• The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meets to the state of the economy and interest rates.  Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell gives a press conference at 2:30 p.m. on Wednesday to discuss the meeting and interest rate decision.

• Mexico Aggregate Demand Q4, Private Spending Q4

• Canada Inflation Rate (February), Core Inflation Rate (February), CPI Median (February), CPI Trimmed-Mean (February), Core Inflation Rate (February)

• USA Building Permits Prel (February), Housing Starts (February), Redbook (March)/16, 52-Week Bill Auction, 20-Year Bond Auction, Net Long-term TIC Flows (January), Foreign Bond Investment (January), Overall Net Capital Flows (January), API Crude Oil Stock Change (March)/15, International Monetary Market (IMM) Date

• Argentina Balance of Trade (February)

• Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in Manila, Philippines. The purpose of the meeting is to reinforce the US alliance with the Philippines amid ongoing tensions with China in the South China Sea.

• Taiwan hosts the Smart City Summit and Expo in Taipei through March 22.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of Japan Interest Rate Policy

• Japan Capacity Utilization (January), Industrial Production Final (January)

• Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision, RBA Press Conference

• Singapore MAS 4 & 12-Week Bill Auction

• New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (March)/19

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers are expected to discuss the situation in Ukraine, EU security and defense issues, and prospects for EU enlargement.

• NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg will visit Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia.  

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas in Berlin, Germany.  Together they participate on an economic panel discussion economic issues.

• German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius will attend the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting at Ramstein Air Base, led by his U.S. counterpart, Lloyd Austin.

• In response to ongoing demonstrations across the EU by farmers, The European Parliament’s Agriculture Committee will quiz Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski on the proposed measures to support farmers included in the so-called simplification package presented on 22 February. In a later debate, the Agriculture Committee will discuss the agricultural sector’s contribution to EU climate objectives with Climate Action Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos gives at "IV Observatorio de las Finanzas" event organized by El Español and Invertia in Madrid, Spain

• Switzerland Balance of Trade (February), SECO Economic Forecasts

• Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (March), Labour Cost Index Q4, Wage Growth Q4

• Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (March), ZEW Current Conditions (March)

• Great Britain 20-Year Treasury Gilt Auction

• Spain Consumer Confidence (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Building Permits (January)

Wednesday, March 20, 2024

Global

• In Geneva, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) will organize a presentation of the First Global Supply Chain Forum.

• Today is the Vernal Equinox, marking the first day of spring.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision, FOMC Economic Projections

• Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision

• USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (March)/15, MBA Mortgage Applications/ Market Index/ Refinance Index/ Purchase Index (March)/15, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change/ Gasoline Stocks Change/ Crude Oil Imports Change/ EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change/ Distillate Fuel Production Change/ Distillate Stocks Change/ Gasoline Production Change/ Heating Oil Stocks Change/ Refinery Crude Runs Change (March)/15, 17-Week Bill Auction, - 1st Yr, 2nd Yr, Current, & Longer, Fed Press Conference

• Argentina Unemployment Rate Q4, Full Year GDP Growth 2023, GDP Growth Rate Q4

• El Salvador Balance of Trade (February), Current Account Q4

• Brazil Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit Australia and New Zealand.  China and Australia have slowly been working to improve relations after a diplomatic blowup in 2020.  Wang will participate in the 7th Australia-China Foreign and Strategic Dialogue.

• Indonesia will formally announce the results of the recent presidential election.

Economic Reports/Events –

• New Zealand Current Account Q4

• China Loan Prime Rate 1Y and 5Y (March)

• Indonesia Loan Growth (February), Interest Rate Decision, Deposit Facility Rate (March), Lending Facility Rate (March)

• Taiwan Export Orders (February)

• India M3 Money Supply (March)/08

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU Tripartite Social Summit takes place in Brussels.  The Tripartite Summit is a forum for dialogue between EU institutions at the presidential level and European social partners at the top management level.  It is co-chaired by the President of the European Council and the President of the European Commission. The participating European-level social partners include BusinessEurope, the European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC), SGI Europe (association of enterprises with services of general interest), SMEunited (association of crafts and SMEs in Europe), and CEC European Managers.  The agenda will cover an industrial strategy complementing the Green Deal with quality jobs at its heart, a single market that delivers for enterprises and workers, and tackling skills and labor shortages.

• The EU – Ukraine Association Council will meet in Brussels to discuss the implementation of the Association Agreement since the start of the Russian war of aggression, the implementation of the European Commission Ukraine country report recommendations, and the issue of reconstruction and reforms in Ukraine, including EU financial assistance.

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte in Leipzig, Germany.  Rutte is seeking to become the next Secretary General of NATO and wants Scholtz’s support.

• EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with UN Secretary-General António Guterres for a working lunch to discuss the war in Gaza, opening a humanitarian line to Palestinian refugees, as well as the situation in Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a speech at the 24th The ECB and its Watchers 2024 Conference organized by the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability at Goethe University in Frankfurt, Germany.

• ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane participates on a panel discussion at 24th The ECB and its Watchers 2024 Conference organized by the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability at Goethe University in Frankfurt, Germany.

• ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates on a panel discussion at 24th The ECB and its Watchers 2024 Conference organized by the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability at Goethe University in Frankfurt, Germany.

• Germany PPI (February), 30-Year Bund Auction

• Turkey Consumer Confidence (March), Central Government Debt (February)

• Great Britain Inflation Rate (February), Core Inflation Rate (February), PPI Core Output (February), PPI Input (February), PPI Output (February), Retail Price Index (February)

• Italy Industrial Production (January)

• Poland Corporate Sector Wages (February), Employment Growth (February), Industrial Production (February), PPI (February)

• Euro Area Construction Output (January), 3 and 6-Month Bill Auction, Consumer Confidence Flash (March)

• Ireland Residential Property Prices (January)

• Russia PPI (February)

• Slovakia Unemployment Rate (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Kuwait Inflation Rate (February)

• Israel Manufacturing PMI (February), Inflation Expectations (March)

• Oman Inflation Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Inflation Rate (February), Core Inflation Rate (February), Retail Sales (January)

• Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (February)

Thursday, March 21, 2024

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to Non-proliferation/DPRK. The Security Council is also scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria). 

• Climate ministers from more than 40 countries around the world will convene in Copenhagen, Denmark, to prepare for the COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan in November.

• The International Atomic Energy Agency will hold a Nuclear Energy Summit in Brussels.

• The World Trade Organization holds a General Council meeting in Geneva, Switzerland.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Venezuela will accept submissions for candidates for the country's July 28 presidential election through March 25.

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michael Barr will have a Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr will participate in a “Conversation with Students and Faculty” At A View from the Fed: A Fireside Discussion at the Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy, Ann Arbor, Michigan.

• Mexico Retail Sales (January), Interest Rate Decision

• Canada New Housing Price Index (February)

• USA Current Account Q4, Initial Jobless Claims (March)/16, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (March), Continuing Jobless Claims (March)/09, Jobless Claims 4-week Average (March)/16, Philly Fed Business Conditions/ CAPEX Index/ Employment/ New Orders/ Prices Paid (March), S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (March), Existing Home Sales (February), CB Leading Index  (February), EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (March)/15, 4, 8, 15 & 30-Week Bill Auction, 10-Year TIPS Auction

• Paraguay PPI (February), Interest Rate Decision

• El Salvador GDP Growth Rate Q4

• Argentina Retail Sales (January)

• Uruguay GDP Growth Rate Q4

• Costa Rica Balance of Trade (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Afghanistan Day (Nowruz), celebrating Afghan culture globally.

Economic Reports/Events –

• New Zealand GDP Growth Rate Q4, Credit Card Spending (February)

• Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (March), RBA Woods Speech, Employment/Full-Time Employment/ Part Time Employment/ Change (February), Unemployment Rate (February), Participation Rate (February)

• Japan Reuters Tankan Index (March), Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February), Jibun Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (March)

• India HSBC Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (March)

• Taiwan Interest Rate Decision, M2 Money Supply (February)

• Hong Kong Consumer Price Index CPI (February), Current Account Q4, Inflation Rate (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• As part of the Euro Summit 2024, The European Council meets in Brussels through March 22.  EU national leaders will discuss the situation in Ukraine, mutual security and defense issues, and the situation in the Middle East.  They will also discuss EU enlargement, migration issues, agriculture matters, and external relations.

• France's upper house of Parliament will vote on the ratification of the EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement.  The Parliament is said to be badly split as to whether to approve the deal, which was signed in October 2016.  Recent demonstrations in France by French farmers have made agreeing to any new trade deals politically radioactive.

• The European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee will debate the way forward for EU enlargement with the Foreign Affairs ministers of some member states, ahead of the 21-22 March European Council. Ministers from Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Slovenia, Denmark, Greece, Bulgaria, Croatia and Austria are confirmed for the debate.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of England Interest Rate Decision

• ECB General Council Meeting

• ECB Board Member Claudia Buch gives an introductory statement at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

• Euro Area New Car Registrations (February), HCOB Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (March), Current Account (January)

• Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing (February), Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (February), S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (March),

• France Business Confidence (March), Business Climate Indicator (March), HCOB Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (March), 3 & 5-Year OAT Auction

• Germany HCOB Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (March)

• Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision

• Poland Retail Sales (February)

• Slovenia Consumer Confidence (March), PPI (February), Unemployment Rate (January)

• Spain Bonos Auction, Index-Linked Obligation Auction, Obligation Auction

• Italy Current Account (January)

• Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision, Overnight Lending/ Borrowing Rate (March), Foreign Exchange Reserves Mar/15

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Manufacturing Production (January)

• Lebanon Inflation Rate (February)

• Qatar M2 Money Supply (February), Total Credit Growth (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Namibia Independence Day, celebrating when the country gained full independence in 1990.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Friday, March 22, 2024

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security.      

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Today is the deadline for the US Congress to approve the remaining six appropriations bills or face a partial government shutdown.

Economic Reports/Events –

• The Federal Reserve will be holding a Fed Listens: Transitioning to the Post-Pandemic Economy Event at the Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C.  Fed Chair Jay Powell will give opening remarks followed by a panel discussion chaired by Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman entitled “Evolving Conditions for Families and Job Seekers.” This will be followed by a second panel, chaired by Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, entitled “Industry Perspectives.”

• Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to participate in a moderated conversation on “Household Finance" before the 2024 Household Finance Conference organized by the Financial Services Innovation Lab at the Georgia Institute of Technology and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

• Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (March), Federal Tax Revenues (February)

• Chile PPI (February)

• Mexico Economic Activity (January), Mid-month Core Inflation Rate (March), Mid-month Inflation Rate (March)

• Canada Retail Sales Ex Autos (January), Retail Sales (January), Budget Balance (January)

• USA Baker Hughes Oil Rig/ Total Rigs Count (March)/22

• Colombia Interest Rate Decision

• Uruguay Balance of Trade (February)

• Argentina Leading Indicator (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• New Zealand Westpac Consumer Confidence Q1, Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

• South Korea PPI (February)

• Japan Inflation Rate (February), Core Inflation Rate (February), Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy (February), Inflation Rate (February), Foreign Bond Investment (March)/16, Stock Investment by Foreigners (March)/16

• Australia Westpac Leading Index (February), RBA Financial Stability Review

• Indonesia M2 Money Supply (February)

• Taiwan Unemployment Rate (February)

• India Bank Loan Growth (March)/08, Deposit Growth (March)/08, Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/15

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in the Euro Summit in Brussels, Belgium.

• ECB Board Member Claudia Buch gives remarks at her farewell symposium at Deutsche Bundesbank.

• ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a policy lecture on inflation and monetary policy at Aix-Marseille School of Economics (AMSE) in Marseille, France.

• Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (March), Retail Sales (February), Retail Sales ex Fuel (February), CBI Industrial Trends Orders (March)

• Germany Import Prices (January), Ifo Business Climate/ Current Conditions/ Expectations (March)

• Turkey Business Confidence (March), Capacity Utilization (March), Tourist Arrivals (February)

• Switzerland Current Account Q4

• Greece Current Account (January)

• Poland Unemployment Rate (February), M3 Money Supply (February)

• Slovenia Business Confidence (March)

• Italy BTP Index-Linked Auction, BTP Short Term Auction

• Russia Interest Rate Decision, CBR Press Conference, Consumer Confidence Q1

• Ireland Wholesale Prices (February)

• Serbia Current Account (January)

• Slovakia Current Account (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Jordan Industrial Production (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Ghana PPI (February)

Saturday, March 23, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Louisiana and Missouri hold Democratic Presidential Primaries.

• Bolivia conducts a national census.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Slovakia holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 24, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Holi, the religious festival celebrated by Hindus and Sikhs with the throwing of coloured powder and water at fellow celebrants.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• There will be an informal meeting of EU Fisheries Ministers through March 25 in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Today is the Jewish festival of Purim.  Financial markets are closed in Israel.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Composite Economic Index (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Senegal is scheduled to hold presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Recommended Weekend Reads

March 15 - 17, 2024

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend. Also, let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list. 

Americas

• “Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community”  Office of the Director of National Intelligence

  The Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) released their annual global threat assessment.   The report outlines how, in the coming year, the United States will face an increasingly fragile global order strained by accelerated strategic competition among major powers, more intense and unpredictable transnational challenges, and multiple regional conflicts.  The report details the US Intelligence Communities unclassified assessment of China, Russia, Iran, and non-state actors and the risk they pose to the US.

• “Redefining US Strategy with Latin American and the Caribbean for a New Era”   Atlantic Council

  The Atlantic Council launched this study because of the perception of waning US interest, and the rise of external influence necessitates a rejuvenation of and renewed focus on the region.  The study focuses on what can be done in four areas: 1) economy, investment, and commerce, 2) energy security, 3) regional migration and security, and 4) democracy, institutions, and governance.

• “How banking regulations affect US foreign policy”  The Atlantic Council

  Economics, finance, and national security overlap. Obvious areas of convergence include sanctions and trade policy. But the average US foreign policymaker is now also expected to develop at least rudimentary knowledge of critical minerals and what constitutes a reserve currency. Banking regulations may seem a step too far, but they must be added to the list because they, too, carry foreign policy implications.

• The Puzzling Persistence of Financial Crises”  National Bureau of Economic Research

  The high social costs of financial crises imply that economists, policymakers, businesses, and households have a tremendous incentive to understand and try to prevent them. And yet, so far, we have failed to learn how to avoid them. In this article, we take a novel approach to studying financial crises. We first build ten case studies of financial crises that stretch over two millennia and then consider their salient points of differences and commonalities. We see this as the beginning of developing a useful taxonomy of crises – an understanding of the most important factors that reappear across the many examples, which also allows (as in any taxonomy) some examples to be more similar to each other than others. From the perspective of our review of the ten crises, we consider the question of why it has proven so difficult to learn from past crises to avoid future ones.

• Driving Under the Influence of Allergies: The Effect of Seasonal Pollen on Traffic Fatalities  National Bureau of Economic Research

  Traffic fatalities are the leading cause of mortality in the United States despite being preventable. While several policies have been introduced to improve traffic safety, and their effects have been well documented, the role of transitory health shocks or situational factors in explaining variations in fatal traffic accidents has been understudied. Exploring daily variation in city-specific pollen counts, this study finds novel evidence that traffic fatalities increase on days in which the local pollen count is particularly high. We find that the effects are present in accidents involving private vehicles and occur most frequently on the weekends, suggesting potentially a missed opportunity to avoid these fatalities. We do not find similar effects for fleet vehicles. These findings remain robust to alternative specifications and alternative definitions of high pollen count. Taken together, this study finds evidence that a prevalent and transitory exogenous health shock, namely pollen allergies, increases traffic fatalities. Given our lack of evidence of avoidance, these effects are not mechanical and are likely driven by cognitive impairments that arise as a result of seasonal allergies.

European Union

• “EU-US relations after the Inflation Reduction Act, and the challenges ahead”  European Parliamentary Research Service

  In this paper, Bruce Stokes, visiting senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, and associate fellow at Chatham House, offers an overview of US-EU relations since the passage of the US Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.  This paper is based on the author’s interviews with leading European and US experts and published analysis by major think tanks and journalists on both sides of the Atlantic.  The paper discusses current efforts to manage longstanding pre-IRA disputes, the Trade and Technology Council, the US Chips and Science Act and the EU’s response, looming issues such as CBAM and critical minerals, and how politics in both the US and Europe may affect the handling of these issues.

• “Opening Shots: What to Make of the European Defense Industrial Strategy”  European Council on Foreign Relations

  The European Commission’s new defense industrial strategy sets out to strengthen the EU’s defense industry through common and local procurements. But it will need both financial and political buy-in to succeed. Firstly, money matters. The €1.5 billion mobilized to establish the European Defense Industrial Policy (EDIP) between 2025 and 2027 represents a fraction of European spending (roughly 0.2 percent), which will make it difficult to shape the market. Significant additional money could only be allocated under the EU’s next multiannual financial framework in 2028.

  Secondly, the commission needs to clarify the functioning of different financial tools, including the Fund to Accelerate Defense Supply Chain Transformation (FAST) to support small- and medium-sized enterprises; the Structure for European Armament Programme (SEAP), which bolsters cooperation in part through a VAT exemption; and the European Military Sales mechanism (which is apparently modeled on the US Foreign Military Sales tool, though focused on the availability of EU equipment).

  Thirdly, as it grows, this effort needs to be well aligned with defense planning priorities, which are primarily defined at the national level or in NATO. This will require much closer NATO-EU engagement. Fourthly, member states, especially the larger ones, have traditionally been reluctant to Europeanize defense policies and could resist a perceived power grab by the commission. The EU will have to convince them – and their industries – of the added value of this approach, including, for some, the choice to buy European. 

  Finally, given the money initially allocated and the usual timeframe before implementation, EDIS and EDIP will not address the immediate requirements of Ukraine or short-term capability shortfalls.

NATO

• NATO’s decision process has an Achilles’ heel  By Eric S. Edelman, David Manning, and Franklin C. Miller The Atlantic Council

  In Washington this July, the most successful political-military alliance in modern history will celebrate its seventy-fifth anniversary.  Today, the Alliance stands as a barrier to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ambition to recreate a “Russian world,” bringing Russophone citizens back into something like the borders of the Soviet Union by reabsorbing Ukraine and possibly Moldova and the Baltic states. The Russian autocrat’s invasion of Ukraine has strengthened the Alliance by adding two very capable members (Finland and now, finally, Sweden), and by strengthening the will of member states to stand together against Russian aggression. But the fact is the principle of consensus which holds the alliance together, except in the case of accession, is not enshrined or codified in any Alliance document. What worked for the Alliance earlier, when all of its members were like-minded states facing an overwhelming military challenge, and the memories of World War II were fresh in the minds of both the public and leaders, may not be fit for purpose today with a broader and much more diverse membership.

China

• “Export controls: China’s long game to defend its tech advantage”   Merics

  Rather than abruptly pulling the plug on certain exports, Beijing is gradually sharpening an instrument to better control global tech supply chains and pursue a range of other goals. Chinese export controls came into focus in the summer of 2023 when the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) announced new licensing requirements on the export of gallium and germanium, critical minerals in semiconductor manufacturing. Some saw this as a response to the Dutch government’s new export restrictions – under pressure from the US – on products made by ASML, a major supplier of chipmaking tools to China.  And retaliation it was – just not in a simple, tit-for-tat manner, and likely not aimed at that target. If the past year is of any indication, it is plausible that these mineral controls – which do not constitute an export ban – were chiefly aimed at US companies. While germanium is used in fiber optics and solar panels, and gallium in consumer electronics and 5G telecommunications, both are key for the aerospace and defense industries. In 2023, the Chinese government added US defense contractors Lockheed Martin and Raytheon to its Unreliable Entities List – companies China marks for punitive action. It also deemed memory chips from US defense contractor Micron to pose a risk to its domestic critical information infrastructure. 

• “China’s Food Security: Key Challenges and Emerging Policy Responses”  Center for Strategic & International Studies

  Feeding China’s vast population is a priority issue for Beijing, given the historic ramifications of famines and food crises for social and regime stability. Yet the task is vast—China must feed nearly 20 percent of the global population but is home to under 10 percent of the world’s arable land—and the challenges to stable food supply are many. These include inefficient agricultural practices, supply chain bottlenecks, changing consumption habits, international trade dynamics, domestic environmental degradation, corruption and data misrepresentation, and a history of food safety scandals. Diagnosing a more contentious international environment, Xi Jinping has placed greater emphasis on agricultural self-sufficiency and diversified sourcing of critical inputs, foodstuffs, technology, and know-how. This brief explores key trends, challenges, and policy measures in China’s pursuit of food security. It is part of a joint CSIS-Brookings Institution project, Advancing Collaboration in an Era of Strategic Competition, which seeks to explore and expand the space for U.S.-China collaboration on matters of shared concern.

Russia

• “All the autocrat’s men: the court politics of Putin’s inner circle”  The Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center

  There will be very little suspense surrounding Russia’s presidential election this month. Vladimir Putin will certainly win a fifth term as Kremlin leader. This is because Russian elections are not elections. Instead, they are mobilization and legitimization rituals in which the results are preordained. And even such a shock as opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s death probably won’t change this.

  However, the lack of suspense surrounding the result of the vote does not mean that it will not be meaningful. On the contrary, this ritual is a political watershed that will determine the landscape in Russia for years to come—and possibly what Russia will look like after Putin finally passes from the scene. That is because, in the absence of institutions, Russian politics are effectively court politics, dominated by the clan battles within the Kremlin leader’s inner circle.  What is the state of the “Putin court?” And how has Russia’s war against Ukraine influenced the clan battles that define it? Why does the Kremlin seek to leverage traditional conservative values and the Russian Orthodox Church? This report is based on extensive interviews with dozens of current and former Russian officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the inner workings of the Kremlin power elite without fear of reprisals.

Statistics and Map of the Week

Which Chinese Local Governments Are Facing The

Most Severe Debt Obligations?

The Financial Times recently reported how officials from China’s most indebted provinces and cities were recently brought into meetings with state bankers in Beijing to attempt to accelerate the renegotiation of debt payments on billions of dollars in outstanding liabilities.  Infrastructure spending drove up much of the local debt – much of it now unserviceable.   And it is now a severe drag on China’s overall economy and threatening to add new pressure on the country’s effort to get its struggling economy back on track.  Most of the provinces are on the outer rim of China and tend to be the poorest areas.  It is estimated that 18 local governments have amassed as much as $13 trillion in debt, with a growing number of their public bonds coming due by the end of 2024.

The Global Week Ahead

March 10 - 17, 2024

The coming week is another busy week of bilateral meetings between world leaders. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz may win the award for most meetings, hosting the leaders of the Philippines, Indonesia, and a number of other nations. But the most important meeting may be when President Biden hosts the Polish Prime Minister and President on Monday, where the discussion will focus on how to get the US Congress to move on passage of critically needed Ukrainian military aid.

The situation in Gaza will continue to dominate many of these meetings as Ramadan begins tonight and hope for a cease fire and release of hostages seems to be dimming.

The US Congress continues to grind through the long-overdue budget process, getting a number of individual bills this past week and now begins focusing on the final package of appropriations bills this week. The question as to whether the House of Representatives will get to considering that aide package to Ukraine (as well as aid to Israel and Taiwan) remains completely unclear as of this writing.

Also this week, Russia holds presidential elections. Incumbent Vladimir Putin really has no opposition as he faces three friendly candidates. The one candidate who was not friendly, Boris Nadezhdin, was banned from running.

Portugal is also holding snap elections this week and markets will be watching to see if the far-right pulls off a surprise power-play. As of this writing, the vote looks to be close with a center-right coalition likely to win.

Looking to Asia, the China’s National People’s Congress finishes its meetings on Monday. The question markets are asking is if there will be an agreement coming out of the Congress to ramp up stimulus to help get the nation’s economy back on track or if President Xi will let the economy alone to figure out how to right size itself.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, in the US CPI data and retail sales will be released this week, giving markets (and the Federal Reserve) a clearer sense if inflation is ticking back up or not.

Looking at the EU, the UK will be releasing GDP figures which come a week in advance of the next Bank of England interest rate decision. In Asia, Japan will be releasing PPI figures and China will be announcing its 1-year MLF rate.

Below is what else we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, March 10, 2024

Global

• Ramadan begins for Muslims around the world.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The Academy Awards are held at the Dolby Theater in Los Angeles, California.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The U.S. and South Korean militaries will hold their annual Freedom Shield exercise through March 14.

• Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh will pay official visits to Australia and New Zealand through March 11.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Portugal holds snap parliamentary elections. The elections come in the wake of the resignation of Prime Minister Antonio Costa, who is under investigation for corruption.

• Italy holds regional elections.

• India and four European countries will sign a trade and investment agreement.  Worth an estimated $100 billion over 15 years.  The deal is with Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, and Liechtenstein.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Today is the deadline Israel has given Hamas to release all hostages.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Final Q4, Industrial Production (January)

• Israel GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q4

• Egypt Inflation Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Rwanda inflation (February).

Monday, March 11, 2024

Global

• Today is the 4th anniversary of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaring COVID-19 a pandemic.

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Implementation of Note S/2017/507: Working methods. In the afternoon, there will be a briefing on the Middle East.

• The OECD holds its 9th Investment Treaty Conference – Supporting the Global Energy Transition, in Paris, France.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• President Biden will formally submit his budget to Congress for consideration.

• US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo leads a U.S. delegation of the Presidential Trade and Investment Mission to the Philippines through March 12. The high-level delegation aims to spur U.S. investment in various sectors in the Philippines, such as energy, critical minerals, and infrastructure, fostering mutually beneficial economic growth.

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will meet with the heads of diplomatic missions of Latin American and Caribbean countries. 

• U.S. Treasury Deputy Secretary Wally Adeyemo will visit South Africa through March 15. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (February), NY Fed Treasury Purchases 4.5 to 7 yrs., 3- & 6-Month Bill Auction, 3-Year Note Auction

• El Salvador PPI (February)

• Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• China’s National People’s Congress finishes today.

• Today is the Hindu Saka New Year holiday. Financial markets closed until March 13.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan GDP Growth Annualized Final Q4, GDP Growth Rate Final Q4, GDP Capital Expenditure Final Q4, GDP External Demand Final Q4, GDP Price Index Final Q4, GDP Private Consumption Final Q4, Machine Tool Orders (February)

• Philippines Foreign Direct Investment DEC

• India Passenger Vehicles Sales (February), Car Sales (February)

• China Vehicle Sales (February)

• Indonesia Motorbike Sales (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The Eurogroup will meet in Brussels.  They will discuss Macroeconomic developments and fiscal policy in the euro area in 2025, issue a Statement on the future of the Capital Markets Union, and begin coordination on preparing for the Euro Summit later in the month.

• Today is  Commonwealth Day.  A memorial service will be held at Westminster Abbey, involving the 56 member countries and members of the British royal family in the annual celebration of the global network.

• A flag-raising ceremony to mark the accession of the Kingdom of Sweden to NATO will take place at NATO Headquarters in Brussels.

• The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council meets in Brussels through March 12.  They are expected to discuss working conditions for platform workers, as well as the implementation of the European Pillar of Social Rights in the context of the European Semester 2024 and the future social agenda. Additionally, they will endorse the opinion of the Employment Committee and of the Social Protection Committee on the EU’s future policy priorities for the European Pillar of Social Rights, approve conclusions on the 2024 annual sustainable growth survey and the joint employment report, and approve key messages from the Employment Committee on the implementation of the Council recommendation ‘A Bridge to Jobs – Reinforcing the Youth Guarantee.’

• Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim makes his first official visit to Germany and will meet with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

• Today is the 20th anniversary of the 2004 Madrid train bombings, which killed nearly 200 people.

• Today is Independence Restoration Day in Lithuania, celebrating when the country gained its independence from the Soviet Union in 1990.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in the Eurogroup meeting in Brussels, Belgium.

• Ireland Construction PMI (February)

• Romania Balance of Trade (January)

• Turkey Unemployment Rate (January), Participation Rate (January), Retail Sales (January)

• Spain Retail Sales (January)

• Switzerland Consumer Confidence (February)

• Slovenia Industrial Production (January)

• Germany 3- and 9-Month Bubill Auction

• Belarus Inflation Rate (February)

• France 3-, 6-, & 12-Month BTF Auction

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Mozambique Inflation Rate (February)

Tuesday, March 12, 2024 

Global

• OPEC Monthly Report

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the cooperation between the United Nations and regional and subregional organizations (EU).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• President Biden will host Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Polish President Andrzej Duda at the White House.  They are expected to discuss the situation in Ukraine, the Russian threat to Poland, and the situation in Gaza. The meeting comes on the 25th anniversary of Poland’s accession to NATO.

• There will be an emergency meeting of Canada, the US, and the CARICOM bloc to discuss what to do to deal with the crisis in Haiti.

• Department of Justice Special Counsel Robert Hur will testify before the House of Representatives on his handling of the probe of President Joe Biden.

• Presidential primaries are held in Hawaii, Georgia, Missouri, and Washington State.

• In Argentina, left-wing groups have called for protests against President Javier Milei’s austerity policies. Although roadblocks are banned in Buenos Aires, the groups are vowing to ignore the ban.

• Sweden’s King Carl XVI Gustaf and Queen Silvia arrive for a three-day state visit at the invitation of Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

Economic Reports/Events –

• USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (February), Core Inflation Rate (February), Inflation Rate (February), CPI (February), Redbook Mar/09, 10-Year Note Auction, Monthly Budget Statement (February), API Crude Oil Stock Change Mar/08

• Brazil Inflation Rate (February), Business Confidence (March)

• Mexico Industrial Production (January)

• Ecuador Balance of Trade (January)

• Paraguay Balance of Trade (February)

• Argentina Inflation Rate (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• New Zealand Deputy Prime Minister & Foreign Minister Winston Peters will travel to New Delhi, India for meetings with Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar.  Peters will also travel to Ahmedabad for meetings with the political leadership of Gujarat Patel

• International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors, led by Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi, will inspect the Fukushima Plant in Japan and meet with Japanese officials.

• Bangladesh, following widespread protests, is expected to begin cracking down on food prices as part of Ramadan.

• The ASEAN Forum on Taxation takes place in Luang Prabang, Laos.

Economic Reports/Events –

• New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (February)

• Australia RBA Hunter Speech, NAB Business Confidence (February), Building Permits Final (January), Private House Approvals Final (January)

• Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Q1, PPI (February)

• Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

• Malaysia Industrial Production (January)

• India Industrial Production (January), Inflation Rate (February), Manufacturing Production (January)

• Singapore MAS 4- & 12-Week Bill Auction

• China New Yuan Loans (February), M2 Money Supply (February), Outstanding Loan Growth (February), Total Social Financing (February)

• Pakistan Consumer Confidence (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council will meet in Brussels.  They will seek to approve guidelines for the 2025 EU budget and to adopt its recommendation on the 2022 budget discharge.  Ministers will also discuss the Recovery and Resilience Facility and the economic and financial impact of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.  They will also debate with employment and social affairs ministers on social investments and reforms for resilient economies.

• Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. meets with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin to discuss mutual trade and security issues. Marcos will then visit the Czech Republic through March 15.

• Members of the EU Parliament will meet with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyden and the Belgian Presidency to outline their expectations for the upcoming EU Summit (March 21-22), which is set to focus on the Ukraine War, the War in Gaza, and overall EU security and defense policy.

• The EU Parliament is expected to adopt the Artificial Intelligence Act, which aims to ensure that AI is trustworthy, safe, and respects EU fundamental rights. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos participates in the ECOFIN meeting in Brussels, Belgium.

• ECB Claudia Buch gives a keynote speech at the Morgan Stanley Financial Conference 2024 in London, United Kingdom.

• The Bank of England Financial Policy Committee meets.

• Germany Inflation Rate Final (February), CPI (February), Harmonized Inflation Rate Final (February), 2-Year Schatz Auction

• Turkey Industrial Production (January), Current Account (January)

• Great Britain Unemployment Rate (January), Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (January), Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (January), Employment Change (January), Claimant Count Change (February), HMRC Payrolls Change (February), 10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction

• Slovakia Construction Output (January)

• Spain 3- & 9-Month Letras Auction

• Italy 12-Month BOT Auction

• Russia Balance of Trade (January), CPI (February), Inflation Rate (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Current Account Q4

• Jordan PPI (January)

• Oman M2 Money Supply (January), Total Credit (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The Africa eGovernance Conference will take place in Kigali, Rwanda. It will bring together decision-makers to discuss the future of African digital governance.

• Today is Independence Day in Mauritius.  The day marks the day the country won its independence from the UK in 19689.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Angola Wholesale Prices (February), Inflation Rate (February)

Wednesday, March 13, 2024

Global

• The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on peacebuilding and sustaining peace: Promoting conflict prevention – Empowering all actors, including women and youth.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate /MBA Mortgage Applications/MBA Mortgage Market Index/MBA Mortgage Refinance Index/MBA Purchase Index Mar/08, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change/EIA Gasoline Stocks Change/EIA Crude Oil Imports Change/EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change/EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change/EIA Distillate Stocks Change/EIA Gasoline Production Change/EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change/EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change Mar/08, 17-Week Bill Auction, 30-Year Bond Auction

• Uruguay Industrial Production (January)

• Brazil Net Payrolls (January)

• Peru Balance of Trade (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Japanese companies are expected to conclude wage negotiations with major labor unions.  The Unions are demanding an average pay rise of 5.85%, the highest increase in 31 years.

• Asia's largest retail show, 2024 ChinaShop, will take place in Shanghai through March 15.

Economic Reports/Events –

• New Zealand Food Inflation (February)

• South Korea Unemployment Rate (February)

• Indonesia Consumer Confidence (February)

• Malaysia Retail Sales (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz hosts Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin in Berlin, Germany.

• The Paris Defense and Strategy Forum is held in Paris through March 14.

Economic Reports/Events –

• The ECB non-monetary policy meeting takes place in Frankfurt, Germany.

• ECB Board Member Kerstin af Jochnick gives a keynote speech on "Single Supervisory after ten years: Experience and way forward" at Landesbank Baden-Württemberg (LBBW) Fixed Income Forum in Frankfurt, Germany.

• ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone gives virtual concluding remarks at the conference organized by Osservatori Digital Innovation, Politecnico di Milano in Milan, Italy.

• Romania Industrial Production (January), Inflation Rate (February)

• Great Britain GDP (January), GDP 3-Month Avg (January), Goods Trade Balance (January), Goods Trade Balance Non-EU (January), Industrial Production (January), Manufacturing Production (January), Balance of Trade (January), Construction Output (January), GDP (January), NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (February)

• Hungary Industrial Production Final (January), Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

• Euro Area Industrial Production (January)

• Italy 3-, 7-, 15-, 20-, & 30-Year BTP Auction

• Germany 10-Year Bund Auction

• Ireland Residential Property Prices (January)

• Russia Balance of Trade (January), Inflation Rate (February)

• Turkey Auto Production (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nigeria’s Labor Congress has threatened to resume nationwide strikes against the government.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Ethiopia Inflation Rate (January)

• Ghana Inflation (February)

Thursday, March 14, 2024

Global

• The UN Security Council, an adoption is scheduled on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) and the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA). Also, in the morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Yemen).

• G7 Industry, Tech, and Digital Ministers meet in Verona, Italy, through March 15.

• The OECD Global Sustainability Report 2024 will be published.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Brazil Retail Sales (January)

• Canada Manufacturing Sales Final (January), 5-Year Bond Auction

• USA PPI  (February), Retail Sales  (February), Core PPI  (February), Initial Jobless Claims Mar/09, Retail Sales Ex Autos  (February), Continuing Jobless Claims Mar/02, Core PPI  (February), Jobless Claims 4-week Average Mar/09, PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade  (February), Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos  (February), Business Inventories  (January), Retail Inventories Ex Autos  (January), EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change Mar/08, 4- & 8-Week Bill Auction, 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (March)/13

• Colombia Consumer Confidence (February)

• Paraguay Consumer Confidence (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• New Zealand’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Winston Peters will travel to Indonesia to meet with Foreign Minister Marsudi in Jakarta.

• The 23rd OECD-ADBI Roundtable on Capital Markets and Financial Reform In Asia takes place in Tokyo, Japan.  

Economic Reports/Events –

• New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (January)

• Japan Foreign Bond Investment Mar/09, Stock Investment by Foreigners Mar/09

• Indonesia Retail Sales (January)

• India WPI Food Index YoY/WPI Fuel YoY/WPI Inflation YoY/WPI Manufacturing (February)

• Hong Kong Industrial Production Q4

• Singapore 6-Month T-Bill Auction

• Kazakhstan GDP (February)

• China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• European President Ursula von der Leyden meets with. Aksel V. Johannesen, Prime Minister of the Faroe Islands, together with Mette Frederiksen, Prime Minister of Denmark in Tórshavn, Faroes.

• Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg holds a press conference to present his annual report for 2023.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Frank Elderson participates at the European Banking Federation Executive Committee meeting in Frankfurt, Germany.

• ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a speech at the Money Market Contact Group (MMCG) meeting in Frankfurt, Germany.

• ECB Board Member Luis de Guindo gives a fireside chat with Guindos at Foros de Vanguardia in Barcelona, Spain.

• Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (February)

• Hungary Construction Output (January)

• Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (February)

• Spain Core Inflation Rate Final (February), CPI (February), Harmonized Inflation Rate Final (February), Inflation Rate Final (February)

• Ireland CPI (February), Harmonized Inflation Rate Final (February), Inflation Rate (February)

• Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

• Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves Mar/08

• Germany Current Account (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Wholesale Prices (February), Inflation Rate (February)

• Jordan Inflation Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Gold Production (January), Mining Production (January), Manufacturing Production (January)

Friday, March 15, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Irish Prime Minister (Taoiseach) Varadkar visits with President Biden in advance of St. Patrick’s Day .

Economic Reports/Events –

• Canada Housing Starts (February), Foreign Securities Purchases/ Purchases by Canadians (January), Wholesale Sales Final (January)

• USA Import/ Export Prices (February), NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (March), Industrial Production (February), Capacity Utilization (February), Manufacturing Production (February), Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel/5 Year Inflation Expectations Prel/ Consumer Expectations Prel/ Current Conditions Prel Inflation Expectations Prel (March), Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count/ Total Rigs Count Mar/15, NOPA Crush Report

• Colombia Industrial Production (January), Retail Sales (January)

• Peru GDP Growth Rate (January), Unemployment Rate (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• New Zealand’s Deputy Prime Minister & Foreign Minister Winston Peters travels to Singapore for a meeting with Balakrishnan.

• Today is China Consumer Rights Day.  It follows a regular format, with undercover reporters on hidden cameras investigating defective products and services based on complaints from consumers. In the past, foreign brands, including Ford Motor and Muji, were named and shamed, sending company executives scrambling into damage control mode.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Korea Import/Export Prices (February)

• New Zealand Business NZ PMI (February)

• Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)

• China House Price Index (February)

• Singapore Unemployment Rate Final Q4

• Philippines Budget Balance (January), Cash Remittances (January)

• Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

• Japan Tertiary Industry Index (January)

• Sri Lanka GDP Growth Rate Q4, Manufacturing PMI (February), Services PMI (February)

• India Foreign Exchange Reserves Mar/08, Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

• Kazakhstan Industrial Production (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Russia’s presidential elections begin and run through March 17.

• EU President Ursula von der Leyen travels to Greenland to meet with Múte I. Bourup Egede, Prime Minister of Greenland, together with Mette Frederiksen, Prime Minister of Denmark, in Nuuk, Greenland.

• Today is Memorial Day of the 1848 Revolution in Hungary, commemorating the day when Hungarians rallied against the Austrian Empire.

• Today is Belarus Constitution Day (a real day, but, well, the government does not respect the constitution). 

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a guest lecture at Imperial College Business School in London, United Kingdom.

• Germany Wholesale Prices (February)

• France Inflation Rate Final (February), Harmonized Inflation Rate Final (February)

• Slovakia Core Inflation Rate (February), CPI (February), Inflation Rate (February)

• Italy Inflation Rate Final (February), Harmonized Inflation Rate Final (February), Retail Sales (January), Balance of Trade (January)

• Poland Inflation Rate (February), Balance of Trade (January), Current Account (January)

• Greece Construction Output Q4

• Romania Current Account (January)

• Russia Building Permits (January)

• Ukraine Balance of Trade (January)

• Turkey Budget Balance (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Inflation Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nigeria Food Inflation (February)

• Angola Interest Rate Decision, Foreign Exchange Reserves (February), M3 Money Supply (February)

• Ghana Inflation Rate (February)

Saturday, March 16, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Guam holds its Republican presidential primary.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Russian presidential Elections continue.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Angola Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Nigeria Inflation (February)

• Botswana Inflation (February)

• Eswatini Inflation (February)

Sunday, March 17, 2024

Global

• Today is St. Patrick’s Day.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Maldives holds legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• European Commission President Ursula von der Leyden, along with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Belgium Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, and Greek Prime Minister Kyrakos Mitsotakis meet with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi in Cairo to sign  The Partnership revolves around six pillars of “mutual interest including political relations, economic stability, investment and trade, migration and mobility, security and demography, and energy cooperation. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

March 11 - 15, 2024

Last week was quite an epic week in the financial regulatory world, and from where we sit, it seems the regulators got the worst of it.

As noted in last week's report, the SEC finally released Chair Gary Gensler's long-awaited Climate Disclosure regulatory proposal.  And it landed with a thud, seemingly making no one happy.   Progressive Democrats are angry Chair Gensler weakened the original draft to exclude supply chain climate impact while Corporate America and a number of states hated the whole thing – so much so that the state attorney generals of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas immediately filed a joint lawsuit in the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals – joining ten other Republican-led states led by West Virginia – asking the proposed 900 page-plus rules be struck down for overstepping the SEC's powers. 

In addition to these suites, two energy companies have also filed suits, and we almost assuredly will see even more suits coming from business groups in the coming weeks.  It will be a long, hard slog ahead for the SEC's rule proposal to survive.

Also, this past week, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the American Bankers Association, and the Consumer Banking Association filed a joint federal lawsuit seeking to bar the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPPB) from implementing its new cap on crediPlus, there is a growing chorus of members of Congress quite unhappy with the price cap proposal, and you can see the CFPB proposal in the mounting pile of Biden Administration regulatory proposals facing serious litigation risk of being struck down.

Meanwhile, the House of Representatives passed a large package (22 combined bills) seeking to scale back securities regulation impacting access to private capital.  The SEC regulations – also facing separate litigation in federal courts – stirred up a hornet's nest on Capitol Hill when passed.  The Bide White House has indicated they intend to veto the legislation if it ever lands on the President's desk – but let's see first if it has a chance of passage in the Senate as a stand-alone bill (which we think it does not).

Also, this past week, Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell, during his separate House and Senate Semi-Annual Monetary Reports to Congress, heard repeated push-back on the Fed-led effort to increase large bank capital standards.  From what we heard from Powell's answers, it sounds like the capital proposal will likely face significant revisions – something Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu suggested in a speech this past week, too.

Notably, Powell also made clear that the Fed is nowhere near close to issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC)  or any other crypto-related currency—something conservative Congressional members are strongly opposed to.

This coming week, we will be watching the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology, and Inclusion hold a tough oversight hearing on the CFPB's activities – surely focusing heavily on how the Agency came up with the $8 cap on credit card fees. 

Also this week, the Futures Industry Association and the Institute for International Bankers are holding their respective annual member meetings, and a fairly wide assortment of regulators are speaking.

Below are all the major regulatory events we are watching this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

U.S. Senate

• Tuesday, March 12, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee holds a hearing entitled “Examining Proposals to Address Housing Affordability, Availability, and Other Community Needs.”

• Tuesday, March 12, 10:00 a.m.: The Senate Finance Committee will hold a hearing on "American Made: Growing U.S. Manufacturing Through the Tax Code."

House of Representatives

• Tuesday, March 12, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing entitled “Mission Critical: Restoring National Security as the Focus of Defense Production Act Reauthorization”  You can read the Committee Background Memorandum HERE.

• Wednesday, March 13, 9:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Financial Services, Digital Assets, Financial Technology and Inclusion Subcommittee holds a hearing entitled “Bureaucratic Overreach or Consumer Protection? Examining the CFPB's (Consumer Financial Protection Bureau) Latest Action to Restrict Competition in Payments”

Joint Committees

• Tuesday, March 12, 2:30 p.m.: The Joint Economic Committee will hold a hearing entitled “The Fiscal Situation of the United States.” 

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

White House

• Tuesday, March 12, 1:00 p.m. —White House National Economic Advisor Lael Brainard will speak at The Urban Institute on “The Biden-Harris Administration’s Housing Policy Agenda: A Conversation with Lael Brainard, National Economic Advisor” in Washington, D.C.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

• The Federal Reserve is in its “Blackout Period” in advance of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on March 20 & 21.

U.S. Treasury Department

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• Thursday, March 14, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• Monday, March 11, 10:15 a.m. – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will give a fireside chat at the Institute of International Bankers Annual Washington Conference in Washington, D.C.

• Tuesday, March 12, 9:05 a.m. – CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam will deliver a keynote address and participate in a fireside chat at FIA’s Annual International Futures Industry Conference (FIA Boca 2024) in Boca Raton, Florida.

• Friday, March 15, 9:30 a.m. – 12: 30 p.m. – The CFTC’s Market Risk Advisory Committee’s Future of Finance Subcommittee and the Climate-Related Market Risk Subcommittees will meet in Washington, D.C.  Both subcommittees will each examine the potential risks that emerge in connection with increasing adoption of artificial intelligence in global financial markets and the risks that arise in connection with carbon derivatives markets with a particular focus on fraud and greenwashing, market integrity, product design, and disclosure.

FINRA

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• Friday, March 15, 8:00 – 4:35 p.m. – The FDIC’s 2024 Consumer Research Symposium will be held at the FDIC’s Arlington, Virginia offices. 

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

• Thursday, March 14, 10:00 a.m. – The Farm Credit Administration will hold a closed meeting in McLean, Virginia, to approve the minutes for February 8, 2024 (Open), and the Office of Secondary Market Oversight periodic report.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Import/Export Bank

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

World Bank

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Association Events/Public Events

• Sunday – Tuesday, March 10 – 12: The Institute for International Bankers hold their 2024 Annual Washington Conference in Washington, D.C.  Speakers include Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu and Federal Reserve Board General Counsel Mark Van Der Weide.

• Sunday – Wednesday, March 10 – 13: The Futures Industry Association holds its annual meeting in Boca Raton, Florida.

Think Tank Events

• March 11, 11:00 a.m.: The Atlantic Council will hold a virtual conference entitled “Guarantees for Climate Finance in the World Bank-IMF Agenda.”

• Tuesday, March 12, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics hosts an event entitled “Prospects for Reform of Emergency Liquidity Assistance to Banks in the US.”  Andrew Metrick, the Janet L. Yellen Professor of Finance and Management, Yale School of Management, and Cornelia Holthausen, the Director General of Macroprudential Policy and Financial Stability, European Central Bank, will speak.

• Tuesday, March 12, 9:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance holds an online event entitled “IIF Talking Policy with Gerry Cross, Director of Financial Regulation – Policy and Risk Central Bank of Ireland.”

• Tuesday, March 12, 1:00 p.m. – The Urban Institute holds an event entitled “The Biden-Harris Administration’s Housing Policy Agenda: A Conversation with Lael Brainard, National Economic Advisor” in Washington, D.C.

• Wednesday, March 13, 2:00 p.m. – The National Institute on Retirement Security will hold a virtual discussion on "2024 Global Economic and Market Outlook," beginning at 2 p.m.

• Thursday, March 14, 12:00 p.m. – The Institute for International Finance and McKinsey present a new report via an online event entitled “Futureproofing Cybersecurity and Emerging Technology.”

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