Recommended Weekend Reads
What The Trump Tariffs May Mean for Latin America, Why Syria Matters So Much to Russia, China’s Irreversible Demographic Crisis, and Why Javier Milei Has Surprised Almost Everyone
December 6 - 8, 2024
Latin America
·What Would Trump’s Tariff Proposals Mean for U.S. Trade With Latin America? Americas Society
President-elect Trump’s proposed tariffs could mean big changes for industries in and outside the United States, North America's supply chains, and U.S. trade partners in Latin America. The United States has six free trade agreements in effect with 11 Latin American countries. The region is home to some of the country’s largest sources of imports, including its biggest trade partner, Mexico. These potential trade barriers could become a sticking point when it comes to the scheduled 2026 review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). What could these tariffs mean for the United States’ trade partners in Latin America?
Ending the Strategic Vacuum: A U.S. Strategy for China in Latin America Center for Strategic & International Studies
The alarm bells are ringing in Latin America. Chinese president Xi Jinping’s recent visit to Latin America caps off a decade of remarkable advances for China in the United States’ shared neighborhood. Both Xi and President Biden attended the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in Lima, Peru. Both then traveled to Brazil for the G20 Summit meeting. The public imagery of the two meetings said a lot about China’s advance in Latin America with little to no U.S. pushback.
The Price of Neglecting Latin America: Guns, Drugs, and Migration have Destabilized the Region – and Fed Dysfunction in Washington Foreign Affairs
Backlash to the post-2020 spike in undocumented immigration from Latin America weighed strongly in Donald Trump’s favor. He made “closing the border” and the “largest deportation program in American history” centerpieces of his campaign, and voters rewarded him for it. Immigration turned out Trump’s base and was neck and neck with inflation in pushing swing voters to cast their ballots for him. But mass migration to the United States would not exist in its post-2020 proportions if Latin America’s economically diversified crime groups, and the states with which they have fused, were not pushing millions of people to flee north.
Javier Milei Has Surprised Almost Everybody Americas Quarterly
Milei’s successes were undeniable. He had beaten the budget into submission, slayed inflation, and did so without igniting social unrest or setting off a paralyzing brawl with organized labor. Inflation, driven by overspending and the wild printing of pesos, had dropped from 25% a month in December to below 3% per month today. The government now spends less than it takes in from taxes. “Country risk,” a measure of bond prices, is at a five-year low, meaning investors are confident they will be repaid. Milei’s radical economic policies hardly cost him public support. In his inaugural address, he warned that “there is no alternative to shock” and a year later, most Argentines apparently agree. In the November Poliarquía survey, Milei registered a 56% approval rating, the exact level of support he attracted in the election. Consumer confidence is rising. There have been several national strikes by confederations of labor unions and two multitudinous protests against spending cuts at public universities. But generally, Argentines are calmly sipping mate.
State capacity, mining and community relations in Peru Chatham House
With its rich reserves of copper, Peru is poised to play a key role in global supply chains for projects to reduce carbon emissions and enable the transition to a green economy. However, the polarized nature of Peruvian politics is a significant obstacle to realizing this potential. Political instability and the steady turnover of ministers and civil servants in relevant ministries over recent years have affected the capacity of the Peruvian state to promote an inclusive national vision for its mining industry. At the same time, fragmentation among political parties has hampered the capacity of the political system to represent consistent and coherent policy interests.
Syria and the Greater Middle East
Why Syria Matters to the Kremlin The Atlantic
As consuming as the war in Ukraine has been for Russia, the Kremlin does not see it as superseding its Middle East ambitions. That’s because Syria is not just a military outpost. It is a cornerstone of Russia’s claim to great-power status, a theater where it can demonstrate its diplomatic reach and its counternarrative to Western interventionism. This explains why Russia continues to invest in Syria even as it fights a costly war in Ukraine. Moscow may adjust its tactics, but abandoning Syria would mean surrendering something far more precious than territory: Russia’s hard-won position as an indispensable power broker in the Middle East.
China’s Demographic Crisis
·Is China’s population crisis irreversible? South China Morning Post
In a new six-part series, the Post examines how China’s marriage and fertility rates remain on a downward trajectory, fueling a demographic crisis that threatens the nation’s economic and social stability. In this six-part series, we examine the far-reaching consequences of a shrinking and ageing population, from the rise of a “companionship economy” to the challenges faced by the “one-child generation” and the economic risks associated with losing the demographic dividend.
Xi Jinping Doesn’t Have an Answer for China’s Demographic Crisis Foreign Policy
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s recent article in Qiushi, the Communist Party’s flagship journal for outlining core ideology and policy, frames China’s demographic challenges as a strategic opportunity. It offers Xi’s most detailed vision yet for addressing the country’s aging population: shifting from a labor-intensive, population-driven economy to one powered by innovation, education, and productivity. Yet beneath the lofty rhetoric lies a familiar and contentious concept: renkou suzhi, or “population quality.” On the surface, it advocates for cultivating a healthier, better-educated, and more skilled population. But its implications run deeper—and are more divisive. Historically, suzhi has been used to draw lines between urban elites and rural or migrant populations, carrying connotations of class bias and, at times, embracing eugenicist thinking. Implicit in calls for a “high-quality population” is the judgment of a “low-quality” counterpart, reinforcing societal divides in a way that is rarely acknowledged outright.
Geo-economics, AI, and Trade Policy
The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin & David J. Deming/National Bureau of Economic Research
Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a potentially important new technology, but its impact on the economy depends on the speed and intensity of adoption. This paper reports results from the first nationally representative U.S. survey of generative AI adoption at work and at home. In August 2024, 39 percent of the U.S. population age 18-64 used generative AI. More than 24 percent of workers used it at least once in the week prior to being surveyed, and nearly one in nine used it every workday. Historical data on usage and mass-market product launches suggest that U.S. adoption of generative AI has been faster than adoption of the personal computer and the internet.
Semiconductors and Modern Industrial Policy Chad Brown & Dan Wang/American Economic Association
Abstract: Semiconductors have emerged as a headline in the resurgence of modern industrial policy. This paper explores the political economic history of the sector, the changing nature of the semiconductor supply chain, and the new sources of concern that have motivated the most recent turn to government intervention. It also explores details of that turn to industrial policy by the United States, China, Japan, Europe, South Korea, and Taiwan. Modern industrial policy for semiconductors has included not only subsidies for manufacturing, but also new import tariffs, export controls, f