Breakfast with Lech Walesa

One of the Greatest Leaders of the 20th Century Reminds Us to have Solidarity with the Cause of Freedom and Liberty

Last week, I was asked to join a small breakfast with Lech Walesa, the former President of Poland, Nobel Peace Prize laureate, leader of the Polish Solidarity Movement which smashed Communism in Poland and set in motion the demise of the Soviet Union, and, at his core, a hard-working union leader from the docks of Gdańsk Shipyard. Walesa was in town to encourage the U.S. Congress to approve aid to Ukraine - something the Republican Leadership of the House of Representatives seems loath to do.

Walesa came with dire warnings of Russia’s intent (does anyone know better the strain of dictatorial rule that now occupies the Kremlin? What the malign effect a die-hard former KGB agent is having on his country, Eastern Europe, and the world? It is worth noting Putin has put a $5 million price on Walesa’s head - quite a bounty on a man who is 82 years old and long out of power. But I should not say out of power - Walesa will always have extraordinary power because he is a Man of the Truth, a Man who only speaks the Truth, a man determined we all listen to the Truth.

That Truth is we must understand Putin’s intention is not just Ukraine. It is regain what was lost when the ossified Soviet Union fell - the Baltics, Moldova, Georgia, likely Romania and Bulgaria. Whatever he can take by force. And why? Because Russia is now a dying country. The demographics grimly bear that fact out as the young of Russia see no point in having children - or for that matter, staying in Russia. Migration figures are stunning (example: More than 100,000 computer experts/specialists/scientists left Russia in 2022 alone. That is not a brain drain - that is a complete brain disappearance).

For me, the breakfast was quite emotional at times. Walesa spoke of his “friends” Ronald Reagan and St. John Paul II - titans of the last century who left us all an glowing example of leadership and courage to stand up to sheer evil, to never cower, and to trust God will lead us to victory.

God bless Lech Walesa and all those brave Polish dock workers who stood - unarmed and alone - against the Evil Empire. They didn’t just save Poland - they saved the world. It would be good if we all stopped to listen to Walesa’s message today and remember - indeed, embrace and take up — the courage he, Reagan, and St. John Paul II exhibited.

Update: An Inflection Point in the Ukraine War After a Russian Missile Hits Poland?

It turns out the Polish Government's initial assessment was incorrect. Partially incorrect. The missile, which hit the town of Przewodow in Eastern Poland and killed two civilians, was not fired by Russian Forces from Russia. But it was a Russian missile that Ukrainian Air Defense Forces apparently fired as part of their defensive actions against the more than 100 missiles Russian Forces fired at civilian targets in cities across western Ukraine yesterday. It was the most missiles fired by Russian Forces to date into Ukraine since the war started, but we would quickly note Ukrainian Air Defense Forces destroyed 77 of the Russian missiles and 11 Russian “Kamakazie” drones (which are mostly supplied by Iran).

As more details emerge about how exactly such a tragic misfiring could have occurred, we continue to believe, as we wrote yesterday, the tragic event last night will spur Western governments and NATO to reassess and ultimately upgrade the anti-missile and anti-drone missile systems as well as re-opening the debate over sending tanks and fighter planes to Ukraine.

The point we have heard today among US government sources is that Ukrainian Forces are forced to use Russian missiles, which they are not well-trained to operate and are, more often than not, recently captured from Russian Forces on the battlefield, as a means to defend themselves. As one Washington source told us this morning, "desperate times require desperate measures, which means tragic circumstances can result, as we saw in Poland yesterday. The US needs to re-think what we are sending Ukraine and how to speed up their delivery."

This point was reinforced this afternoon by US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley,  when they briefed the press on the situation in Poland.   Milley spoke of the need for an “integrated air and missile defense system for Ukraine.” Achieving what Milley called for would clearly require supplying more advanced weaponry to Ukraine.

But what more can NATO send? Quality and quantity are the challenges. In terms of quantity, stockpiles of many main-stay anti-missile/anti-drone weapons are dangerously low in the US. This includes Stingers and NASAMS, which we wrote about yesterday. And while quantity is a growing challenge, so is the ability to link all these Western systems together so they can communicate and more effectively respond to Russian attacks.

In terms of quality, a good example is Patriot Missiles, considered the best air defense system out there but which the US does not provide to Ukraine. Why not? The US Defense Department has said doing so would require US forces to enter Ukraine to operate them because they are so incredibly sophisticated to operate with state-of-the-art radar and command centers. For a US soldier to become proficient in maintaining a Patriot system, they must undergo a minimum of 53 weeks of training.

Nevertheless, once Poland and NATO conclude their investigation of the missile strike, we anticipate Ukraine ramping up its bids to get more advanced weaponry. And this means the thin line NATO is walking with Russia to avoid the war expanding further will become harder to walk.

A Patriot Missile Long-Range Air-Defense System (Source: www.army-technology.com)

A New Inflection Point in the Ukraine War After a Russian Missile Hits Poland?

The news this afternoon that a Russian missile struck a small town in the Hrubieszów district near the town of Przewodow, Eastern Poland, suggests we may be reaching a new inflection point in the war.

While we are awaiting confirmation that it was a Russian, US intelligence officials are anonymously confirming it was, in fact, a Russian missile. Polish media is reporting at least two Polish civilians are dead. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki convened a meeting of his Council of Ministers for National Security and Defense Affairs.

Undoubtedly, phone lines between NATO members are burning up tonight as Poland considers invoking Article 4, which would require formal consultations with other NATO members, or invoking Article 5, which would call for the collective defense of NATO following an attack on one member - effectively, a clarion call to respond militarily to a Russian attack.

We would note the missile struck roughly the same time Russia launched its biggest missile attacks on Ukrainian cities in months, plunging much of Ukraine into darkness. The attacks on Ukrainian electrical facilities were so severe that they caused massive power outages in neighboring Moldovia.

As of a month ago, Russia had successfully destroyed or seriously degraded Ukraine’s power grid by as much as 50 percent. We have to believe the massive wave of missile attacks today and over the past two weeks have substantially increased that percentage.

Source: Financial Times; Fulcrum Macro Advisors LLC

While NATO leadership called for restraint until “all the facts are known,” we believe this may trigger a significant inflection point in the Ukrainian War. While we would be surprised to see NATO go to war over this incident, it may push NATO to drop its resistance to supplying Ukraine with higher-quality and longer-range missile systems, tanks, and possibly fighter/bomber aircraft.

In the next few weeks, Ukraine is expected to receive advanced anti-missile systems from NATO known as NASAMS (Norwegian Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System). But after today’s attack, Western leaders may think this is not enough to protect NATO members along the border of Russia and Ukraine.

NASAM Air Defense Systems are the latest advanced weaponry arriving in Ukraine to defend against Russian missile attacks. They are expected to arrive in the next week. (source: TheDrive.com)

At the very least, we will likely see NATO forces bulked up on the Polish-Ukraine and Polish-Russian borders. This is a fast-moving event; we will hear much more about potential outcomes in the next 24-48 hours.