The Global Week Ahead

Entering the Final Week of the U.S. Election Campaign Season, Gaza Peace Negotiators Try Again to Broker a Cease-Fire, And A Big US Economic Data Week

October 27 - November 3, 2024

The U.S. is going into the final week of campaigning in what is proving to be one of the tensest presidential elections in recent memory and too close to predict at this point.  Polling has proven to be extremely tight and, more often than not, confusing to most observers.  But it seems it all comes down to whoever wins Pennsylvania wins the presidency.  Control of the U.S. House of Representatives is also proving to be close but seems to lean toward Democrats winning control, while control of the Senate looks likely to flip to Republicans.  But one thing is clear: Everyone we have spoken to cannot wait until November 5th to get the voting behind us.

Looking globally, the coming week is relatively quiet following a busy week of the IMF/World Bank meetings and BRICS Summit (which seems to have been something of a bust for host Russian President Vladimir Putin with little achieved).  Markets are somewhat relieved Israel's much anticipated retaliatory attack on Iran Saturday appears to have been limited and likely not to lead to further direct Iranian strikes or significant expansion of fighting in the region.  But Israeli action against Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon continues and is not expected to end anytime soon.  Meanwhile, Israeli, U.S., and Qatari negotiators are gathering in Doha this week in another effort to broker a cease-fire in Gaza.

Looking at the global economic radar screen, it will be a busy week in the U.S. as the Conference Board's consumer confidence report is on Tuesday, the Q3 GDP numbers are out on Wednesday, PCE data is on Thursday, and the jobs report is released Friday.

In Asia, it is also going to be a busy week in Japan.  The Bank of Japan (BoJ) meets on Thursday to decide interest rates.  We will also see the BoJ release its Outlook Report on Thursday.  This comes after the labor market indicator print is released on Monday, and the Industrial Production and Consumer Confidence reports are released on Wednesday. 

China releases its PMIs on Thursday and the Caixin Manufacturing PMI on Friday.   But markets will particularly examine this week's earnings from large Chinese banks to gauge loan losses, giving a better insight into the country's ongoing economic challenges.

Turning to Europe, Germany, France, and the Eurozone will release Q3 GDP figures.  Germany will also release inflation figures on Wednesday, with France and Italy releasing their inflation figures on Thursday.  In the U.K., the much-anticipated first budget of the recently elected Labour Government will be presented on Wednesday.

There are very few major central bank speeches scheduled this week following a busy week in Washington last week at the IMF/World Bank meetings.  The U.S. Federal Reserve Board is in its "black-out period" in advance of the FMOC meeting on November 6 and 7.  Among G7 central banks, the most notable event is Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem's testimony before the Canadian parliament this week.

Below is what else we are closely watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, October 27, 2024

Global

·       European and British Summer Time end. Clocks go back one hour. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Uruguay holds presidential and parliamentary elections. However, the elections are being marred by a controversial $23 billion proposal to overhaul the social security system. If approved, the measure would increase minimum payouts, lower the retirement age and transfer privately managed savings to a government-run trust in what advocates see as a way to share the nation’s resources more equally.

·        Brazil holds its second round of municipal elections. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·         Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan holds snap elections for its the House of Representatives. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party  (LDP) is at risk of losing its majority in the lower house, which would mean the LDP would have to rely on a coalition partnership with the Komeito Party– which is currently does to hold power in the upper house.  The LDP needs to win 233 seats for an outright majority.

·       Uzbekistan holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Lithuania holds the second round of parliamentary elections.

·       Bulgaria will hold snap parliamentary elections. This is the third attempt to form a government since June and the sixth snap elections held in the country since 2021.

·       Liechtenstein holds a vote on a referendum on the privatization of Radio Lichtenstein.

Economic Reports/Events –

·         Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli, Qatari, and US negotiators will meet in Doha seeking a cease-fire in Gaza.

Economic Reports/Events –

·         Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 28, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on Sudan. Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to deliver remarks. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on 2713 Committee (dealing with Somalia as well as a Troop Contributing Countries (TCC) meeting.  

·       The OECD releases Guidelines on Corporate Governance of State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs).

·       The OECD holds its Sustainable Agricultural Productivity Conference in Paris.

·       The UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) experts will present the organization's annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin.

·       The UN’s International Conference on Women, Peace and Security will be held through October 31 in Manila, Philippines.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Canadian province of Saskatchewan holds legislative elections.

·       The 2024 Microelectronics Commons Annual Meeting and National Semiconductor Technology Center Symposium begins in Washington.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (September)/ CFIB Business Barometer (October)

·       Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem will participate in a fireside chat at the Logic Summit in Ontario.

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (September)

·       USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (October)/ Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates

·       Colombia Business Confidence (September)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Philippine Senate will begin an investigation into former President Rodrigo Duterte's controversial war on drugs. The policy began when he was elected in 2016 and by some estimates led to the killing of as many as 30,000 Filipinos. As Nikkei recently reported, an investigation by congressional lawmakers has recently confirmed a bounty system for police that directly linked Duterte's allies, including two sitting senators, to the violent campaign.

·       The Asian Development Bank will elect a new president.  Only one candidate is running – Japan’s former currency czar Masato Kana. 

·       ASEAN Labor Ministers meet in Singapore.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Malaysia PPI (September)

·       Singapore Import & Export Prices (September)/ PPI (September)

·       Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (October)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Finnish President Alexander Stubb begins a state visit to China.  Stubb is expected to discuss the war in Ukraine and China’s role in supporting Russian forces.  They are also going to talk about the ongoing trade disputes with the EU and bilateral trade issues.

·       The EU-Western Balkans Ministerial Forum begins in Montenegro.

·       French President Emmanuel Macron begins a three-day state visit to the former colony, marking a step towards easing three years of strained relations between the two countries.

·       The 2024 Session of the Nordic Council begins in Reykjavik, Iceland and runs through October 31.  The theme of the meeting is “Peace and Security in the Arctic.”  There are 87 elected members of te Council from Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, The Faroe Islands, Norway, Greenland, and Åland Islands.  Belarus opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya will address the group in a bid to encourage continued opposition to the Belarus dictatorship.

·       The environmental group, Extinction Rebellion, is expected to hold large protest targeting London-based issuers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos gives a speech and participates in a Q&A at Foro Reflexión organized by Grupo Hotusa in Madrid, Spain

·       Spain Retail Sales (September)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (September)

·       Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Saudi Arabia hosts the Future Investment Initiative (FII) through October 31.  The event is a showcase explaining the kingdom’s vision for transforming the country into a financial hub as well as the country’s advancements in technology, minerals, and mining.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (September)

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (September)/ Private Bank Lending (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The 10th session of the UN Global Geospatial Information Management for Africa will be held in Addis Ababa.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (September)

Tuesday, October 29, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Middle East. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Current Account (September)/ Foreign Direct Investment (September)

·       Canada BoC Macklem Speech

·       Chile Unemployment Rate (September)

·       USA Goods Trade Balance Adv (September)/ Redbook (October/26)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (August)/ House Price Index (August)/ JOLTs Job Openings & Quits (September)/ CB Consumer Confidence (October)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (October)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/25)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The International Mining and Resources Conference will be held in Sydney, Australia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (September)/ Jobs/applications ratio (September)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Tourist Arrivals (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (September)/ Mortgage Approvals & Lending (September)/ M4 Money Supply (September)/ Net Lending to Individuals (September)

·       Ireland GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Retail Sales (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Africa HealthTech Summit begins in Kigali, Rwanda.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (September)/ Private Sector Credit (September)

Wednesday, October 30, 2024

Global

·       A Joint meeting of G20 Finance Ministers and Health Ministers will take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.  Later, the G20 Health Ministers Conference will meet.

·       G20 Education Ministers will meet in Fortaleza, Brazil.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold votes linked to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) and the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL). Also in the morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold votes related to the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) and Colombia.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canada will host the Ministerial Conference on Human Dimension of Ukraine’s Peace Formula in Montreal.  he Ministerial Conference will bring together Foreign Affairs Ministers to advance the common vision articulated by the Joint Communiqué on a Peace Framework developed at the Summit on Peace in Ukraine at Bürgenstock, Switzerland, in June 2024.  During the conference, Ministers will exchange views with the aim of developing a concrete plan, guided by the principles of international human rights and humanitarian law, for the return of prisoners of war as well as deported civilians and children back to Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (October)/ Bank Lending (September)/ PPI (September)/ Net Payrolls (September)

·       USA MBA Purchase Index (October/25)/ ADP Employment Change (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ GDP Price Index Q3/ GDP Sales Q3/ PCE Prices Q3/ Real Consumer Spending Q3/ Treasury Refunding Announcement/ Pending Home Sales (September)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/25)

·       Chile Copper/ Industrial/ Manufacturing Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Mexico GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Fiscal Balance (September)

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers will testfy before the Canadian Parliament. 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun will meet with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in Washington for the 56th Bilateral Security Consultative Meetings.  

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia CPI Q3/ Monthly CPI Indicator (September)/ Inflation Rate Q3/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q3/ RBA Weighted Median CPI Q3

·       Philippines PPI (September)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (September)

·       Japan Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Singapore Business Confidence Q3

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (September)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (October)/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       India Infrastructure Output (September)/ M3 Money Supply (October/18)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Commission is expected to publish the final disclosure for planned import duties on Chinese made electric vehicles (EV).  Once implemented, the duties will be in place for five years.

·       The UK Autumn Budget will be presented to Parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives the keynote speech at the SAFE-CEPR conference on Euro@25 organized by Leibniz Institute SAFE in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Netherlands Business Confidence (October)

·       France GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Household Consumption (September)

·       Turkey Economic Confidence Index (October)

·       Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Slovakia Business & Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Business Confidence (October)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (October)/ Economic Sentiment Index (October)/ SNB Press Conference

·       Germany Unemployment Rate (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (October)/ Bavaria CPI (October)/ Brandenburg CPI (October)/ Hesse CPI (October)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (October)/ Saxony CPI (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)

·       Italy GDP Growth Rate Q3/ PPI (September)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (October)

·       Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Economic Sentiment (October)/ Consumer Confidence Final (October)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (October)/ Industrial Sentiment (October)/ Selling Price Expectations (October)/ Services Sentiment (October)/ ECB Schnabel Speech

·       Greece PPI (September)

·       Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate (October)

·       Russia Unemployment Rate (September)/ Business Confidence (October)/ Corporate Profits (August)/ Real Wage Growth (August)/ Retail Sales (September)/ GDP (September)

·       Great Britain Autumn Budget 2024

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (August)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (September)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (September)/ Private Bank Lending (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Botswana holds general elections.  President Mokgweetsi Masisi is expected to win a second five-year term.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Budget Balance (September)/ Medium-term budget statement

Thursday, October 31, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Threats to international peace and security. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (September)/ Nominal Budget Balance (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (October)/ Personal Income & Spending (September)/ Employment Cost Index Q3/ Initial Jobless Claims (October/26)/ PCE Price Index (September)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (October/26)/ Chicago PMI (October)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/25)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/30)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/30)

·       Canada GDP (August)/ Average Weekly Earnings (August)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (September)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (September)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India celebrates Diwali, the festival of lights. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Japan Industrial Production (September) / Retail Sales (September)/ Foreign Bond Investment (October/26)

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (October)

·       Australia Housing Credit (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Export Prices Q3/ Import Prices Q3/ Private Sector Credit (September)/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (October)

·       China NBS Manufacturing & Non- Manufacturing PMI (October)/ NBS General PMI (October)

·       Japan Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision/ BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report/ Housing Starts (September)/ Construction Orders (September)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (September)/ Current Account (September)/ Private Consumption & Investment (September)

·       Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       India Government Budget Value (September)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Sri Lanka PPI (September)/ Unemployment Rate Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russia hosts the World Congress of Compatriots Living Abroad.  The meeting brings together approximately 400 leaders and activists from Russian communities from 103 countries.  The agenda includes “…the preservation of traditional and family values, the safeguarding of cultural and historical heritage, protection of the rights and legitimate interests of compatriots, promotion of the Russian language and education, engagement of youth in diaspora activities, development of Russian-language media, and matters concerning relocation to the Russian Federation.”

·       The 2nd International Eurasian Security Conference will be held in Minsk, Belarus through November 1.  Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will chair the conference.

·       The UK Conservative Party elections will end.  The new Party leader will be announced on Saturday, November 2.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden will give a speech in Hong Kong entitled “Engaging with the machine: AI and Financial Stability.”

·       Netherlands Inflation Rate (October)

·       Germany Retail Sales (September)/ Import Prices (September)

·       Romania Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (September)/ Tourism Revenues Q3/ Retail Sales (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/25)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Final (August)/ PPI (September)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (September)

·       France Inflation Rate (October)/ PPI (September)

·       Spain Tourist Arrivals (September)/ Current Account (August)

·       Euro Area ECB Bulletin/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ CPI Flash (October)

·       Italy Unemployment Rate (September)/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Industrial Sales (August)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (October)

·       Greece Retail Sales (August)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Great Britain BoE Breeden Speech

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (September)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision/ Current Account (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

·       South Africa PPI (September)/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (October)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (September)

Friday, November 1, 2024

Global

·       The United Kingdom takes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of November.

·       The G20 Disaster Risk Reduction Ministerial meeting takes place in Belem, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the Day of the Dead in Mexico.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ Business Confidence (October)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (October)

·       Brazil Industrial Production (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (October)

·       USA Unemployment Rate (October)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate/ Participation Rate (October)/ Government Payrolls (October)/ Manufacturing & Nonfarm Payrolls (October)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (October)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Construction Spending (September)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (November/01)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (October)

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (October)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (October)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Building Permits (September)

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (October)/ Building Permits (September)/ Home Loans (September)/ Investment Lending for Homes (September)/ PPI Q3/ Commodity Prices (October)

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Tourist Arrivals (September)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (October)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Business Confidence (October)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (October)/ Bank Loan Growth (October/18)/ Deposit Growth (October/18)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/25)

·       Kazakhstan Current Account Q3/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (September)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (October)/ Wholesale Prices (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       North Korean troops are expected to begin deploying against Ukrainian Forces in Kursk.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Most financial markets are closed as is the European Central Bank for All Saints’ Day, a public holiday.

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Netherlands Retail Sales (September)/ NEVI Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ M2 Money Supply (September)

·       Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (October)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (October)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (October)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Spain New Car Sales (October)

·       Italy New Car Registrations (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (October)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (October)

Saturday, November 2, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       One of our favorite days of the year!  The end of Daylight Savings as clocks are set back one hour and we get an extra hour of sleep.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 2nd round of presidential elections takes place in Moldova.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, November 3, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Standing Committee National People's Congress will gather for meetings through November 8.  They will consider draft laws and amendments to laws dealing with mineral resources, energy, anti-money laundering, and maritime issues.  They are not expected to discuss the ongoing national economic challenges or how to deal with the debt crisis.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Recommended Weekend Reads

February 23 - 25, 2024

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.  Or sign-up for our Substack “Perspectives” to get our latest work:

China

• “Tracking China’s Control of Overseas Ports”  Council on Foreign Relations Interactive Report

  This interactive map tracks China’s growing maritime influence through investments in strategic overseas ports. Users can plot the location of each port and view satellite images alongside detailed information on the share of Chinese ownership, the total amount of Chinese investment, and the port’s suitability for use by the Chinese military. China operates or has ownership in at least one port in every continent except Antarctica. Of the 101 projects, 92 are active, whereas the remaining 9 port projects have become inactive due to cancellation or suspension by the end of September 2023. Reasons for cancellation or suspension include environmental concerns, souring of political relations, financial problems, and security issues raised domestically and internationally. Suspended projects, such as China’s construction of the Khalifa Port in the United Arab Emirates, could resume construction.

Latin America

• “Exporting Autocracy: China’s Role in Democratic Backsliding in Latin American and the Caribbean”  Center for Strategic and International Studies

  This report seeks to more fully enumerate the nature of China’s impact on democracy in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). It posits two independent but correlated mechanisms through which China contributes to democratic backsliding. First, the PRC propagates its model of authoritarian governance through its soft power engagements in media, education, and people-to-people diplomacy, as well as through its security assistance, which often features tools enabling mass surveillance and the curtailment of civil and political rights. Second, China protects regimes undergoing democratic backsliding by providing economic and diplomatic cover even as these governments become increasingly isolated from the rest of the international system, in effect extending these governments beyond their natural lifespan. Having recognized the specific risk vectors China’s engagement poses in LAC, the report seeks to articulate the beginnings of a democracy-first grand strategy for the United States to pursue. Such a strategy should proceed along the lines of the “insulate, curtail, compete” framework outlined in a previous CSIS report. 
  

  “Challenges to Sheinbaum’s Fiscal Policy”   Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute

  Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo leads the race for the Mexican presidency, yet the complex political and fiscal legacy of her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), represents both an advantage and a burden to her campaign. While she aims for the continuity of her mentor’s key policies in education, energy, and economic development, Mexico’s current fiscal landscape leaves doubts on how her programs might be funded, requiring careful consideration and strategic policymaking.

Economics

• “Financial Markets’ Perceptions of the FOMC’s Data-Dependent Monetary Policy”  Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

  Abstract: Over the past ten years, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has repeatedly emphasized that future policy is data-dependent. In this Economic Commentary, we investigate how financial markets expected future interest rates to change with the release of new data on inflation and labor market conditions. We find that the surprises in economic indicators have a stronger effect on the 2-year Treasury yield than on the expected federal funds rate to be set in the next FOMC meeting. This implies that markets understand that under the data-dependent approach, policy decisions do not heavily rely on the most recent data or short-run fluctuations but, rather, rely more on the persistent trend of the economy. In addition, we observe that expected future interest rates have become more sensitive to surprises in inflation after 2022, suggesting that the FOMC’s determination to reduce inflation has been well-understood by the markets.
  

• “Trade War and Peace: U.S. – China Trade and Tariff Risk from 2015 – 2050”  National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper

  Abstract: We use the dynamics of U.S. imports across goods in the period around the U.S.-China trade war with a model of exporter dynamics to estimate the dynamic path of the probability of transiting between Normal Trade Relations and a trade war state. We find (i) there was no increase in the likelihood of a trade war before 2018; (ii) the trade war was initially expected to end quickly, but its expected duration grew substantially after 2020; and (iii) the trade war reduced the likelihood that China would face Non-Normal Trade Relations tariffs in the future. Our findings imply that the expected mean future U.S. tariff on China rose more under President Biden than under President Trump. We also show that the trade response to the trade war is similar to the response to the 1980 liberalization that initially granted China access to U.S. markets at NTR terms and was expected to be quickly reversed.

Energy Markets

• “Sanctions on Russia and the Splintering of the World Oil Market”  American Enterprise Institute

  After the West’s imposition of sanctions on Russia’s oil industry, there is a larger share of world oil production under sanction than at any time in decades. Sanctions impose costs on Iran, Russia, and Venezuela by forcing them to sell oil below market prices. However, sanctions also provide benefits to countries that buy cheap oil. China, India, and Turkey have been major beneficiaries of cheaper oil. Sanctions also make oil markets less efficient and more opaque. Policymakers must calibrate current and future oil sanctions to maximize cost imposition on adversaries while limiting the extent to which they make oil markets more inefficient.

European Security Policy

• “The future of European defense and security”   McKinsey & Company

  Much has been said and written about Europe’s urgent need to build up its defense capabilities.  But what does that exactly mean?  What precisely does the EU need to do and what challenges do EU governments, and the defense and security sectors face to achieve an effective level of defense?  McKinsey takes a deep dive to find those answers in this study.

Charts of the Week

How Russia Uses China to Get Around Sanctions

The Bell – a truly independent Russian economic news source – reports on how, since most leading economies placed tough sanctions on Russia following the invasion of Ukraine, Russian companies (and the Kremlin) have worked tirelessly to get around the sanctions.  And they have found China to be the best place to get much of what they need for home consumption – as well as obtaining a lot of products known as “dual purpose” items – e.g., for civilian and military use.

Russian imports from China reached a record $111 billion in 2023, according to Chinese customs data analyzed by The Bell — up 47% on 2022, and 65% higher than in 2021, the last full year before the invasion. 

High-tech goods are among the top three Chinese exports to Russia. That’s no surprise: under sanctions, many Russian companies had to find new sources of equipment, spare parts, electronics and vehicles. In 2023, Russia significantly increased its imports of computers from China, as well as compressors, machine tools and their spare parts, turbines, optical devices and other advanced manufacturing equipment. The Bell lays it out in these excellent charts below:

The Global Week Ahead

November 19 - 26, 2023

For the first time in a long time, the coming geopolitical week looks like it will be a relatively quiet one.  The ongoing battle in Gaza between Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and Hamas will continue to be the focus as Middle Eastern leaders met with China’s top diplomat Minister Wang Yi to discuss finding a way to bring an end to the hostilities.

EU Foreign Ministers will also gather virtually to discuss the Gaza situation as the EU’s top diplomat conducts a whirlwind of meetings in the Middle East seeking to mediate.

Meanwhile, G20 leaders will gather virtually later this week to review issues discussed at the recent summit in New Delhi.  Gaza and the situation in Ukraine will dominate the agenda, as will how leaders can work together to find solutions. 

Washington has gone quiet in the US as Congress has taken the week off for the Thanksgiving holiday.  They return next week, where they will again take up efforts to finalize appropriation bills after passing another last-minute Continuing Resolution (CR) to keep the government running.

On the global economic radar screen, it is a fairly quiet week for major economic reports.  The US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank release meeting minutes this week.  This Friday, markets will also watch PMIs from Europe, Japan, and the US.  Germany will also release Q3 GDP figures on Friday. 

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, November 19, 2023 

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Argentina holds the second round of Presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Today is National Day in Monaco, celebrating the country being ruled by the Grimaldi Family, who took the throne in 1927.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report. 

Monday, November 20, 2023

Global

• The Emissions Gap Report 2023 will be launched by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP).  UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, will brief journalists on that report. He will be joined virtually by Inger Andersen, UNEP’s Executive Director, and Anne Olhoff, Chief Scientific Editor of the UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2023.

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the maintenance of international peace and security: promote sustaining peace through common development.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• President Biden hosted the annual National Thanksgiving Turkey pardoning ceremony at the White House.

• The US Congress is out this week – the first time both chambers have been out for ten weeks.

• The Halifax International Security Forum is being held in Halifax, Nova Scotia.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US CB Leading Index (October)

• Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

• Chile GDP (Q3), Current Account (Q3)

• Peru GDP (Q3)

• Uruguay Central Bank Interest Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The Marshall Islands holds parliamentary elections and a Constitutional referendum.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Taiwan Export Orders (October), Current Accounts (Q3)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• There will be an informal video conference of EU Foreign Affairs Ministers to discuss a humanitarian pause in Gaza. This will happen as EU High Representative Josef Borrell will visit the region.

• South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and a business delegation will travel to Europe looking to make further inroads into the region's markets. Winning support for South Korea's bid to host World Expo 2030 in the city of Busan will also be among Yoon's top priorities.

• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will meet the High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Christian Schmidt. He will also meet the Chairlady of the Council of Minister of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Borjana Krišto. He will hold meetings with the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, and the Prime Minister, Ana Brnabić. Later that day, Stoltenberg will travel to the Republic of North Macedonia to meet with President Stevo Pendarovski and the Prime Minister, Dimitar Kovačevski.

• The European Economic Area Council meets to discuss the functioning of the European Economic Area Agreement and economic security.

• The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets to discuss the EU’s rural areas.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a virtual policy panel at 6th annual meeting of Central Bank Research Association’s (CEBRA) International Trade and Macroeconomic program joint with the 5th annual meeting of CEBRA’s International Finance and Macroeconomics program in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

• Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives the Henry Plumb Memorial Lecture  a speech entitled “A Measure of Wheat for a Penny: Food Price Inflation in Historical Perspective.” 

• Eurozone Construction Output (September)

• Germany PPI (October), Bundesbank Monthly Report

• Greece Current Account (September)

• Slovakia Unemployment (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Central Government Debt

• Israel Unemployment (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The G20 Compact with Africa Conference will be held in Berlin, Germany, hosted by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

• The East Africa Regional Tourism Expo will be held in Nairobi, Kenya. The Expo showcases the various diverse tourism opportunities in the continent.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report. 

Tuesday, November 21, 2023

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on peace and security in Africa and a briefing on Ukraine in the afternoon.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US FMOC Meeting Minutes Released, Chicago Fed National Activity Index (October), Redbook (November 18), Existing Home Sales (October)

• Canada Inflation (October), New Housing Price Index (October), CPI (October)

• Paraguay PPI (October)

• El Salvador Balance of Trade (October)

• Costa Rica Balance of Trade (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Korea PPI (October)

• Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock participates in a panel discussion at the ASIC Annual Forum in Melbourne, Australia.

• Reserve Bank of Australia Payments System Board Meeting

• Hong Kong Inflation (October)

• Indonesia Current Account (Q3)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Development) to discuss to the situation in Ukraine, aid to Palestine, implementation of the Gender Action Plan III, and follow-up to the EU-CELAC Summit.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board President Christine Lagarde gives a speech at the high-level public discussion "Inflation kills democracy" on the occasion of the 100th anniversary of the currency reform in Germany in 1923 organized by the German Ministry of Finance in Berlin, Germany.

• ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a lecture at the International Economic Policy Lecture conference organized by the University of Würzburg in Würzburg, Germany.

• ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in a talk at  the Financial and Regulatory Outlook Conference 2023: The New Monetary Order, organized by Oliver Wyman.

• UK Labor Productivity (Q3), Public Sector Borrowing (October)

• Switzerland Balance of Trade (October)

• Poland Corporate Sector Wages (October), Employment Growth (October), PPI (October)

• Slovakia PPI (October), Unemployment (September)

• Hungary Unemployment (October), Base Rate

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Inflation Expectations (November), M1 Money Supply (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (September)

Wednesday, November 22, 2023

Global

• A G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held virtually and will be hosted by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.  The meeting will give leaders a chance to discuss successes and ongoing challenges to issues discussed at the G20 Summit in India recently.  On December 1, Brazil assumes the chair of the G20 for 2024.

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the 1701 report (the situation in Lebanon).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Durable Goods Orders (October), MBA Mortgage Index (November 17), Initial Jobless Claims (November 18),  Michigan Consumer Sentiment (November), Michigan Consumer Expectations (November), Michigan Inflation Expectations (November)

• Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will give a speech before the Saint John Region Chamber of Commerce in New Brunswick.

• Canada Manufacturing Sales (October), Wholesale Sales (October)

• Mexico Retail Sales (September)

• Argentina Economic Activity (September), Leading Indicator (October)

• Paraguay Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Australia Westpac Leading Index (October)

• Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock gives a speech at the ABE Annual Dinner in Sydney, Australia

• Singapore GDP (Q3)

• Taiwan Unemployment (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The Netherlands holds parliamentary elections.  Polls suggest races are very close, and a clear winner may take time to sort out.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Frank Elderson gives a  keynote speech and participates in a panel discussion at "Macroeconomic Zeitenwende: How to Achieve Monetary and Financial Stability in the Green Transition" organized by Bertelsmann Stiftung in Berlin, Germany.

• Eurozone Consumer Confidence (November)

• UK Fiscal Update (UK Chancellor Jeremy Hung will lay out tax and spending plans), CBI Industrial Trends Outlook (November)

• Italy Construction Output (September)

• Poland Retail Sales (October)

• Slovakia Consumer Confidence (November),  Current Account (September)

• Russia PPI

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Consumer Confidence (November)

• Egypt Current Account (Q3)

• Lebanon Inflation (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Inflation (October)

Thursday, November 23, 2023

Global

• Today is an official holiday at the UN Headquarters.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• It is the Thanksgiving Holiday in the US. Banks and financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Mexico Mid-Month Inflation (November)

• Colombia Business Account (October)

• Peru Current Account (Q3), Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

• Argentina Retail Sales (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (November), Judo Bank Services PMI (November)

• Taiwan Industrial Production (October), Retail Sales (October)

• Singapore Current Account (Q3), Inflation (October), CPI (October)

• Indonesia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Sri Lanka Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU-Canada Summit takes place through November 24 in Saint John’s, Canada.  Leaders will underscore EU-Canada's shared commitment to democratic values, multilateralism, and the international rules-based order as the bedrock of their relationship.

• The EU Education, Youth, Culture and Sports Council meets through November 24.

• Brussels Airlines plans to go on strike for an indefinite period of time.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

• ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a speech at the "Anniversary dinner" of Porto Business School in Porto, Portugal.

• Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing & Services PMIs(November)

• Germany HCOB Manufacturing & Services PMIs (November)

• UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing & Services PMIs (November), GfK Consumer Confidence (November)

• France Business Confidence (November), HCOB Manufacturing & Services PMI (November)

• Poland M3 Money Supply (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

• Israel Manufacturing Production (September), Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Central Bank Interest Rate Decision,  Business Confidence (Q4)

Friday, November 24, 2023

Global

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMIs (November)

• Canada Budget Balance (September), Retail Sales (September)

• Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (November)

• Mexico GDP (Q3), Economic Activity (September),  Current Account (Q3)

• Chile PPI (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The foreign ministers of China, Japan, and South Korea are set to hold their first trilateral meeting since 2019 in Busan, South Korea. The meeting comes following delays caused by issues such as the coronavirus pandemic. The meeting will take place at a time when Seoul and Tokyo are moving closer to the U.S.

• Today is the deadline for Taiwanese presidential candidates to finalize their registration in order to run in the January 13, 2024 elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Inflation (October), Jibun Bank Manufacturing & Services PMIs (November), Coincident Index (September), Leading Economic Index (September)

• India FX Reserves (November 17)

• Singapore Industrial Production (October)

• Malaysia Inflation (October), Coincident Index (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in a youth event, "Euro 20+ (Euro)pa der Zukunft" organized by the Deutsche Bundesbank in Frankfurt, Germany.

• ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos gives remarks followed by a Q&A session at XVIII Encuentro de Economia organized by Fundació Internacional Olof Palme in Barcelona, Spain.

• Germany GDP (Q3), Ifo Business Climate (November), Ifo Expectations (November)

• Poland Unemployment Rate (October)

• Hungary Unemployment (October)

• Spain PPI (October)

• Slovakia Business Confidence (November)

• Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls (Q3)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Composite Economic Index (October)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Saturday, November 25, 2023

Global

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Madagascar will announce the preliminary results of its presidential elections. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Sunday, November 26, 2023

Global

• OPEC+ meets to consider output production.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• In the UK, the Booker Prize for Fiction winner will be announced in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

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Speaking at the Barron’s Advisor 100 Summit

September 19, 2023

It was great fun being a part of the “Morning News with Barron’s” panel today hosted by Jack Otter, Global Head of Barron’s Wealth & Asset Management Group and host of Fox Business News’s weekly “Barron’s Roundtable” show. What made it even better was to sit with Tony Crescenzi, Executive Vice President, Strategist, and Portfolio Manager at PIMCO. Tony is not only one of the most brilliant market strategists out there but also a true intellectual and student of history, not to mention an all-around wonderful guy.

This was the kick-off session to the Barron’s Advisor 100 Summit being held at the Phoenician Hotel in Phoenix, Arizona. More than 400 financial advisors and strategists are in attendance.

Our conversation covered a great deal of ground, ranging from the looming U.S. government shutdown to a host of geopolitical issues and what the Federal Reserve is likely to do going forward with regard to interest rates. Tony had some brilliant insights into the issue of liquidity many major firms are grappling with now as a result of the Dodd-Frank Act and what it means for investors.

Thank you, Barron’s for asking me to be a part of this great conference. And in particular, thank you, Jack, for your superb hosting and questioning - never any softballs, always penetrating and smart! It was really fun!